THE SIXTH ROUND

By the sixth round, we’re looking at about a 14% chance of seeing an NHL player. You’d have to pile more than 7 picks one on top of another to ensure one player arrives on your doorstep, so there’s a slightly better chance of finding a player here than the fifth round (historically). This speaks to the luck involved for any pick outside the top 100 in each draft year.

In the comments  section of the round five post, several worthy posts pointed out the ‘dice have no memory’ and that you can’t pile players on top of each other and assign blame once your chances reach 100%. Totally agree. Now, let’s have a look at the sixth round.

AHL Hockey: Oct 23 Barons vs Monsters

A PROPOSAL

Scott Cullen of TSN estimated the success rate (100 NHL games or more) to be 12% back in 2009. Let’s also use 150 games as the line in the sand, as we’ve done through each round.

OILERS SIXTH ROUND 2008-2014

That set, let’s move on to the Oilers during the MacGregor era (2008-2013). We’re looking at one in seven being a success (average) and anything more than that above average. The Oilers have selected six players in Round 6 during the MacGregor era, including one last month:

  • 2008: Teemu Hartikainen
  • 2010: Brandon Davidson
  • 2010: Drew Czerwonka
  • 2012: John McCarron
  • 2013: Ben Betker
  • 2014: Tyler Vesel

Six players have been taken in the sixth round during the MacGregor era, and at 12% we’re looking at most of one NHLer of 150 games (with the understanding that we aren’t really, because the dice have no memory, etc).

mccarron2

NHL GAMES PLAYED

  1. Teemu Hartikainen 52

Hartikainen doesn’t count as a ‘successful’ pick, but any fool can tell you 50 games from a sixth round pick is a nice return. Harski has not (as yet) played 150 games, but he may get another opportunity Toronto or another NHL team. I don’t think there’s any evidence Hartikainen can’t play in the NHL.

betker

2014 SUMMER

  • No longer a prospect: Drew Czerwonka
  • Very bad arrows:
  • Bad arrows:
  • Lukewarm arrows: Teemu Hartikainen, John McCarron, Ben Betker
  • Good arrows: Brandon Davidson
  • Very good arrows:
  • New arrows: Tyler Vesel

The sixth round picks under MacGregor have done pretty well as prospects. Czerwonka never did turn pro because of an injury, but the other men are alive and well as future NHL options. Now, a little reality about all of this: it’s not terribly likely any of the names on this list play more than Hartikainen already has, and it’s possible Hartikainen never plays in the NHL again. That said, there are four guys plus the new pick who are matriculating.

  • Teemu Hartikainen: KHL for another season, then we’ll see. He may get another chance.
  • Brandon Davidson:  Played well in the second half may get him a look in 2014-15.
  • Drew Czerwonka: Career ended with junior and some CIS.
  • John McCarron: A big winger with some skill, that has to be of interest to Edmonton.
  • Ben Betker: Big, physical defender who has good mobility. A Matt Greene-type.
  • Tyler Vesel: A scorer from the emerging USHL, off to NCAA and we’ll know more a year from now.

Barons photos by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved.

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16 Responses to "THE SIXTH ROUND"

  1. Big Dan says:

    You really think Ben Betker was lukewarm? While I don’t think he will have a career as an Oiler because of the depth he’ll run into, I would classify him as a “good arrow”.

    He was very good value and has a chance at making the NHL for a little bit by my guess (maybe Scott Ferguson). Big, tough stay-at-home types that can skate and pass are quite the commodity.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Big Dan:
    You really think Ben Betker was lukewarm?While I don’t think he will have a career as an Oiler because of the depth he’ll run into, I would classify him as a “good arrow”.

    He was very good value and has a chance at making the NHL for a little bit by my guess (maybe Scott Ferguson).Big, tough stay-at-home types that can skate and pass are quite the commodity.

    It’s a tough call. I like the guy, but like McCarron too. My thinking was ‘they can’t all be good arrows’ because it’s the sixth round. I can be talked into it, but are we sure?

  3. Genjutsu says:

    Lowetide,

    I’d have them both in the good arrows section based on McCarron’s second half and his captaincy.

    However, I’m a fan and one who could use a few positives for a change.

  4. jp says:

    Well is it a good arrow “for a 6th round pick”, or a good arrow in terms of overall prospect status? I’d agree Betker has done well relative to his draft position, but still feel he’s a very mediocre/long-shot prospect overall.

    From the other posts:
    Lukewarm arrows – Moroz, Musil, Slepyshev, Rajala, Gustafsson, Houck, Laleggia, Hartikainen, McCarron, Betker
    Good arrows – Lander, Pitlick, Khaira, Yakimov, Simpson, Rieder, Gernat, Davidson

    I’d also slot Betker solidly in the lukewarm group, and honestly towards the bottom of it in terms of his likelihood of playing 150 games (despite his clear progress since last year).

  5. flyfish1168 says:

    Has anyone heard what Hartikainen plans are for this season??

  6. Lowetide says:

    flyfish1168:
    Has anyone heard what Hartikainen plans are for this season??

    KHL contract was for two seasons.

  7. judgedrude says:

    I know you’re taking percentages from the basic rounds, but at this point in the draft, is it better to think about what type of player gives the highest chance of success:

    -Goaltenders?
    -Tall trees?
    -Small skilled?
    -Enforcers?
    -Defensive specialists?
    -Overagers or obscure leagues?
    -Players with singular successes, either at the Juniors or the 2014 Memorial Cup MVP?

  8. Lowetide says:

    bpa.

  9. Zack says:

    Lowetide,

    Quite off topic but what do you think the chances are of the Oilers prying away Brock Nelson from the Islanders? If the brass are serious about improving the centre depth, I think the best way to go about it would be similar to the Turris deal. I know Nelson is quite the opposite in that he isn’t buried in the minors like Turris was, or at least that’s how I saw it but I think Nelson is exactly what the Oilers are looking for in a 2C role, size, can play all three zones and has offensive potential.

    Not sure what it would take to pry him away though, not sure Schultz would interest them even with all their d-men coming up the pipe-line.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Zack:
    Lowetide,

    Quite off topic but what do you think the chances are of the Oilers prying away Brock Nelson from the Islanders? If the brass are serious about improving the centre depth, I think the best way to go about it would be similar to the Turris deal. I know Nelson is quite the opposite in that he isn’t buried in the minors like Turris was, or at least that’s how I saw it but I think Nelson is exactly what the Oilers are looking for in a 2C role, size, can play all three zones and has offensive potential.

    Not sure what it would take to pry him away though, not sure Schultz would interest them even with all their d-men coming up the pipe-line.

    The Islanders do lots of crazy things, but dealing Brock Nelson seems nutty even for them. There have been rumors of Josh Bailey being dealt, but Nelson being traded (especially after Nino Niederreiter being traded in 2013 summer) is unlikely imo.

  11. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I like McCarron and Betker a lot too.

    I think McCarron does deserve a “lukewarm” rating though as he’s been in the system for a couple of years and appears to be running in place somewhat

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=117556

    He’s miles ahead of his much more highly touted brother though… so there’s that!

    Betker (though old for his draft year), gets more of a push from me (we are talking “arrows” here, so relative to past performance and reasonableness given draft round) insofar as he seemed to take a clear step forward this season:

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=147481

    Going from 6 to 21 points is a big jump, all of it apparently at even strength:

    http://www.mckeenshockey.com/lib/MinorHockeyReportingTool/index.php?team=39&pos=3

    If he can maintain and even build on that this year, I’ve think that’s a real nice 6th round player. Definitely deserves a “good arrow” IMO.

  12. fifthcartel says:

    Young McCarron has to be one of the most questionable 1st round picks in recent years. .51ppg in his draft + 1 season in the OHL, yikes.

  13. oilswell says:

    jp:
    Well is it a good arrow “for a 6th round pick”, or a good arrow in terms of overall prospect status?

    For years LT has developed a ladder that prospects have to climb to be NHL Regular/Starter/Star. If you’re looking at these picks from the later rounds they all have some things they have to prove. Else, you know, they’d be earlier picks. Maybe later the timing is more important — a 25 year old has only so many options — but early on I think it’s useful just to see how or if they’re climbing the ladder.

  14. G Money says:

    judgedrude: I know you’re taking percentages from the basic rounds, but at this point in the draft, is it better to think about what type of player gives the highest chance of success:
    -Goaltenders?

    Yes.

    I crunched the numbers and put together some draft success curves. The main thing that was different with my analysis is that I separated out forwards from defenders from goalies.
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/4/8/5594876/updating-draft-success-numbers-a-vainglorious-number-crunching

    At least part of LT’s observation of the odd bump from 12% to 14% going from fifth to sixth round is likely attributable to goaltenders.

    Also, in line with the commentary from myself and oilswell from the Fifth Round thread:

    If your success rate for a pick is 14%, this: “You’d have to pile more than 7 picks one on top of another to ensure one player arrives on your doorstep” is not an accurate statement! With 7 picks, the chances of getting at least one NHL player are not 7*.14, the probability is actually 1 – (1-.14)^7 = 65.2%. Better than a coin flip, but far from certain.

  15. Aitch says:

    The fact that you have a better chance of getting “a player” in the sixth round (14%) compared with the fifth round (12%) says a lot. LT, you often say yourself that at this point it’s a crapshoot, but seeing that those numbers really prove it. And seeing it, makes me even happier with MacT’s two deals in the middle of the draft in 2013. After all, at this point, you really should be drafting for quantity unless there is someone standing out like a sore thumb on your draft list.

    If the Oilers can somehow get a home run out of the 4th-7th rounds between the 2012-2017 draft classes, it should help set the team up for the next decade. It was this sort of “finding gems” drafting that allowed the Red Wings to keep their run going once the Yzerman’s, Fedorov’s etc were ready to move on.

  16. druid99999 says:

    G Money,

    This leads to a way of determining the comparative value of draft picks.

    If a top 3 draft pick is the gold standard (~98.5% chance of getting a 150 game player) then how many picks in lower rounds does it take to give you a given likelihood of getting a 150 game player?

    Draft Pos (round) >98% >90% >50%

    4 to 10 (round 1): 3 2 1
    11 to 20 (round 1) : 5 3 1
    21 to 30 (round 1) : 6 4 1
    31 to 45 (round 2) : 12 7 2
    46 to 60 (round 2) : 14 8 3
    61 to 90 (round 3) : 15 9 3
    91 to 120 (round 4) : 25 15 5
    121 to 150 (round 5) : 31 18 6

    One top 3 pick is pretty much a guarantee of a 150 game player.
    31 5th round picks is pretty much a guarantee of a 150 game player.

    This is based on the number of 150 game players in each group from 1998 to 2008.

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