TRAINING CAMP HOPEFUL NO. 8: BRANDON DAVIDSON

Brandon Davidson is whatever you call the guy who starts behind the long shots. The distant bell? Sounds too promising.  Buddy’s story is already book worthy, and I think he’ll get his first NHL cup of coffee this season. What. a. journey. (photo by Rob Ferguson, all rights reserved)

RE 13-14 REVIEW

PPG NAME GP G A PTS
.200 BRANDON DAVIDSON OKC RE 13-14 50 3 7 10
.191 BRANDON DAVIDSON OKC ACTUAL 13-14 68 5 8 13

RE 14-15 PREVIEW

PPG NAME GP G A PTS
.231 BRANDON DAVIDSON OKC RE 14-15 65 4 11 15
.000 BRANDON DAVIDSON RE 14-15 2 0 0 0
  •  Young  Willis: (Brad) Hunt was also full of praise for his regular partner on the evening, Brandon Davidson, and said he’s just improved since Christmas. Davidson, who had two points and a minus-14 rating though 27 games at the new year, has four assists and a plus-eight rating in 17 games in 2014. He was a rock on Saturday, not only providing strong defence but delivering a (clean) bone rattling hit that resulted in a scrum in the defensive zone.
  1. Why will he make the NHL next season? Willis covers it above, he’s made progress. This is a player who started late and has some lag, but it’s also a tough position to learn. Davidson has about 100 AHL games experience now, so improvement at this point is vital and a good sign.
  2. Does Rocky Thompson’s presence on the big league staff help Davidson? Absolutely. Davidson isn’t going to get the chance if he isn’t qualified, but he’s also unlikely to score four points in a game. His more subtle approach needs more viewings, and Thompson has certainly seen him a lot. A very good sign for all the Oklahoma kids, to be honest.
  3. What role will he play? Defensive defenseman, just like Musil. Davidson is not going to make his money as a puck mover.
  4. What are the odds on him playing 200 NHL games? Not good, but the odds of him getting drafted were terrible, too. This isn’t a player you bet against, because he’s been off the grid forever. He’s going to write a unique script.
  5. Where does he rank among Oiler prospects? I have him No. 23, and the No. 8 defenseman (now that Taylor Fedun is gone).

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22 Responses to "TRAINING CAMP HOPEFUL NO. 8: BRANDON DAVIDSON"

  1. VanOil says:

    Nurse kicked out for being tall?

    Chase in the box for being mean.

    Oilers have a whole lots of nasty coming.

    edit. Chase talked his way out of the box early. I love this kid.

  2. VanOil says:

    So to clarify the Nurse/Chase incident for those not watching.

    Nurse took a 2 minute minor for a forearm shiver on a much shorter player. This being IIHF rules he also got a 10 minute misconduct.

    Chase looking to fill the time while the officials were figuring this out decided to practice his Russian with the whole Russian bench. Apparently Bogdan only taught him the swear words in Jasper a few weeks back. This resulted in coincidental minors for Unsportmanlike conduct.

    Chase and Vovchenko both went to the box to continue there conversation. Nurse was escorted to the dressing room. At the end of 2 minutes the Chase and Vovchenko would both normally have to wait for a stoppage of play to return to there benches. But because no one was serving Nurse’s 2 minute penalty Chase talked his way out of the box early. The Russian had to sit and wait.

    This sequence may make Nurse and Chase look like a liability for Hockey Canada but for the big bad NHL these kids are going to be stars.

  3. justDOit says:

    VanOil:
    Nurse kicked out for being tall?

    Chase in the box for being mean.

    Pretty sure that each of those is a penalty in IIHF play.

    But agreed about their ‘nasty level’ (to borrow from another poor hockey phrase), and I’m looking forward to when both these men can contribute in the Bigs.

  4. MrEd says:

    Just love all of these young men chasing the dream. Can’t help but hope for each one.
    Having Rocky in the ear of Coach Eakins is a good thing for those that are bubbling under. That with Dellow in the shadows gives me hope that everyone in the system will get a fair shake. Seems professional.

    Boy does Nurse ever look aggressive.
    So does Chase.
    Good for Lazar.

  5. gr8one says:

    Barbashev looks fantastic.

    Of course the steal of the draft could end up being a player that falls into the laps of the Blues using our pick.

    #becauseOilers

    Don’t get me wrong, I’m not knocking the Perron trade, I think it was great for the Oilers and would make that trade 10 out of 10 times, but if Barbashev does end up being a high end player it would be so Oilers.

  6. wheatnoil says:

    VanOil:
    So to clarify the Nurse/Chase incident for those not watching.

    Nurse took a 2 minute minor for a forearm shiver on a much shorter player. This being IIHF rules he also got a 10 minute misconduct.

    Chase looking to fill the time while the officials were figuring this out decided to practice his Russian with the whole Russian bench. Apparently Bogdan only taught him the swear words in Jasper a few weeks back. This resulted in coincidental minors for Unsportmanlike conduct.

    Chase and Vovchenko both went to the box to continue there conversation. Nurse was escorted to the dressing room. At the end of 2 minutes the Chase and Vovchenko would both normally have to wait for a stoppage of play to return to there benches. But because no one was serving Nurse’s 2 minute penalty Chase talked his way out of the box early. The Russian had to sit and wait.

    This sequence may make Nurse and Chase look like a liability for Hockey Canada but for the big bad NHL these kids are going to be stars.

    Nurse sounds like a mean-bastard and Chase sounds like a prick… and they can both play! I’m going to love them in an Oilers uniform!

  7. VanOil says:

    Other than Dellow, who on the Oilers extended staff and players do you think will read Vollman’s hockey abstract?

    My early vote might be surprising: Louie Debrusk his work/knowledge took a leap forward last year I think he has been doing his home work.

    Also LT as the rights holders shun your program I would like to repeat my request that you get Nail’s dad as a guest. MPS’ dad was great. It sounds like he is now and expert on Oil Kings hockey as well: http://goo.gl/pqLroh

  8. Woodguy says:

    VanOil,

    Other than Dellow, who on the Oilers extended staff and players do you think will read Vollman’s hockey abstract?

    Dan Haight isn’t on the Oiler’s staff, but they use his company, Dark Horse Analytics to consult on fancystats.

    I would put the probability of Dan reading Vollman’s book pretty high.

    Dan spoke to a group of fancystaters in Edmonton a few months back. Rob Vollman was the one who put the group together.

    I was lucky enough to get an invite.

    Was interesting stuff.

  9. VanOil says:

    Woodguy,

    The sure team seems to be getting smarter in the MacT GM era, lets hope that soon means they will get better.

    Edit: It is also not luck that you were invited. I have learned much about hockey analytics through your comments on this site and the links you have provided. Thanks

  10. Ribs says:

    VanOil: Other than Dellow, who on the Oilers extended staff and players do you think will read Vollman’s hockey abstract?

    It sounds like Coach Short-Shorts is on board with the fancystats revolution. I wouldn’t be surprised if he has or will read it. The Oilers as a whole have been pretty open to advanced statistics the past few years it seems. How much correlation that has with what they actually do has been somewhat debatable, though.

    Arrows up, as LT says.

  11. "Steve Smith" says:

    VanOil: Edit: It is also not luck that you were invited. I have learned much about hockey analytics through your comments on this site and the links you have provided. Thanks

    Yeah, well, I was at an invitation-only gathering of Oilogosphere regulars devoted to discussing the latest advancements in unsubstantial and unproductive drive-by comments.

    Bookie’s not as tall as you’d expect.

  12. VanOil says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    I would bet the drinks were way better at your event. But I don’t have any stats to back that seen him good analysis.

  13. stevezie says:

    “Steve Smith”,

    Well I recently hosted an sans-invite-only party of long-time semi-regulars. It was poorly attended, but there was booze and nudity and a surprisingly productive, “Bendhelson: Friend or Foe?” discussion group.

    Our think-tank is looking into hiring a lifeguard, if anyone is interested.

  14. Pouzar says:

    hmmmm

    From Gregor’s ON article

    “The Oilers had the worst defence in the NHL last year, and it wasn’t even close. “Our system wasn’t that hard, but too often we had guys in the wrong position or making wrong plays,” a defenceman told me off the record last month.”

  15. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar:
    hmmmm

    From Gregor’s ON article

    “The Oilers had the worst defence in the NHL last year, and it wasn’t even close. “Our system wasn’t that hard, but too often we had guys in the wrong position or making wrong plays,” a defenceman told me off the record last month.”

    Yeah, I liked Gregor’s stats listed in the article regarding whether the D had improved.

    Heigth, weight, age, gp and TOI. Comprehensive. ;)

  16. Ryan says:

    RexLibris: Yeah, I liked Gregor’s stats listed in the article regarding whether the D had improved.

    Heigth, weight, age, gp and TOI. Comprehensive.

    Even more so when Aullie and Arcobello skew the averages of the d corps and forwards respectively.

  17. bry_oil says:

    Pouzar,

    I’m guessing the off the record player has to be Ference, lives in Edmonton (so likely the only one taht would be talking to Gregor), and is the most veteran guy (I don’t really see any other player on the team making that comment).

  18. Pouzar says:

    bry_oil,

    That was first instinct as well.

  19. Pouzar says:

    Ryan: Even more so when Aullie and Arcobello skew the averages of the d corps and forwards respectively.

    Exactly….why couldn’t he use the average mean or something statistically geeky! :)

  20. Bank Shot says:

    RexLibris: Yeah, I liked Gregor’s stats listed in the article regarding whether the D had improved.

    Heigth, weight, age, gp and TOI. Comprehensive.

    I was looking at a chart tracking height, weight, age, and it actually looked like there was a pretty decent correlation between age and winning.

    Older teams were generally better. Makes you wonder why MacT didn”t just go out and get some vets to fill out 2C and the bottom lines.

    It’ll be painful watching The Final Solution and Pitlick making rookie mistakes all season.

  21. Deadman Waiting says:

    This is perpendicular to the prospect series, so I’m tail posting once again.

    ———

    Last week I decided to check out the world of self-publishing. Same old bonnet, fresh bee. Four bees, actually, in the first dump. Another three books with less spring in their step await me on the hold shelf.

    The book by Cynthia Reeser was a complete non-starter. Apparently she has an MFA degree of some pedigree, but it didn’t help. This book features some of the least attractive page layout I’ve ever seen. It would have been more appropriate for a book was titled How to Assemble Your Own Pipe Organ: The First 5000 Steps—if the font had been 1/3rd as large and the paper half as thick.

    Appelbaum was worth a scan. Original copyright 1978, with a multitude of revisions, most recently 1998. Obviously the original had good bones, but one can only replace hip joints so many times.

    Baverstock is recent(ish), copyright 2011. Almost every chapter has one or two guest contributors. The content is solid enough, but man did this book shoot itself in the foot. It features numerous case studies, where people who’ve been through the grind share their war stories. That’s usually the good stuff. Most of these personal anecdotes run anywhere from half a page to two pages. Every one of these is typeset in black type on a dark grey background. In my copy, the reduction of reading contrast slows me to about 1/3 my normal reading speed. For flipping back through the book to find an interesting sentence from among the anecdotes, I’m pretty much dead in the water. I practically have to set anchor to catch enough words to identify which one I’ve landed upon. In the rest of the book, 200–600 ms lingering over any page previously read is enough to give me the tickle of recognition.

    I have in the past seen books that do something like this to defeat photocopiers, but not since Appelbaums’ third edition back in the Ghostbusters era. Once some kind of textbook filled with black-on-green source code passed through my hands. Man, just think of the economic carnage had that source code been mimeographed with abandon.

    APE: Author, Publisher, Entrepreneur by Guy Kawasaki and Shawn Welch is clearly the cream of this group, and also the most recent, published in 2013. Nicely typeset, authoritative information, highly polished writing voice.

    G.K. is well known as a former Apple Macvangelist. He subsequently had a one year stint involving Google+ and then he jumped ship for some obscure cum ubiquitous everyman-artist cloudware junket Down Under. It is even possible any more to hear about these things before they’re already dying? I must be old. Anyway, he seems to know how the Guineas roll, so he’ll probably do just fine.

    At the tender age of forty-eight I took up ice hockey even through I had never skated before (there are no frozen ponds in Hawaii). Canadians [from the Ottawa valley – DMW] will tell you that I was forty-five years too late, eh? I would never make money or earn a college scholarship by playing hockey. My motivation was the joy of learning the world’s most enchanting sport.

    Sold.

    Backing out of the stereotype, there really are distinctive features of Canadian English (but they are apparently ultra-top-secret):

    Because of Canadian raising, many speakers are able to distinguish between words such as writer and rider – a feat otherwise impossible, because North American dialects turn intervocalic /t/ into an alveolar flap. Thus writer and rider are distinguished solely by their vowels, as the distinction between their consonants has been lost. Speakers who do not have C.R. cannot distinguish between these two words based on vowel sound alone.

    I tested my lemon tree. Most definitely we pronounce these words distinctly.

    Almost all Canadians have the cot–caught merger.

    Guilty as charged. Likewise the Ott–aught–ought merger.

    Do the research. I buy (an author who doesn’t buy books is a hypocrite) and skim the leading books in a genre to familiarize myself with prior writing. (I bought thirty-two books for the background research of Enchantment.) I do this while creating an outline.

    Kudos to his integrity, but I’m not going to put him in charge of the prime lending rate any time soon. The only people who come out ahead when authors buy from other authors are the publishing companies who take a 90% cut (traditional) or 30–60% (vanity new-wave).

    This is exactly the economic reasoning that got the vanity trade in such disrepute in the first place: certain shady publishers make 100% of their book sales to their own authors. I’ve seen this story in more than one source. A few months after printing 1000 copies (or thereabouts) you get a letter from your publisher “Aw shucks we didn’t sell any copies at all of your fine book, you must be way ahead of your time. To make space, we’ll be pulping the lot of them next week, unless you wish to send us 50% of the eminently reasonable retail price to save them from this untimely doom.”

    Apparently there are enough deluded writers in the world willing to cut a cheque for $10,000 to park 1000 copies of a book bearing their name that no-one wants—where the family car would go if only you could afford one—to make this business model work. It’s a sad state of affairs. Why do I halfway suspect a hasty midnight print run whenever one of these cheques arrives?

    My snap judgement concerning Guy’s economic judgement is that all those years as an Apple evangelist fried his brain. Apple has said no end of stupid things and gotten away with it. If there’s even a single Photoshop blur filter that fits the PowerPC dispatch pathways like a hand fits a glove, then all PowerPC-based Macintoshes run rings around their Intel competitors, so sayeth Apple upon the mountain. Then you throw a server workload at the two machines and the PC beats the tar out of the blur-buff Mac by 30% across the board. Funny that. (Yes, this is long ago.)

    Apple had a largely legitimate marketing message, but in my books you’re only as good as the dumbest thing you refuse to revoke and for Apple that was their RISC mythos. Here’s the thing. Instruction set logic tends to shrink. Cache hierarchies tend to grow. Intel’s geriatric, short-bus instruction set occupies something like 3% of a modern CPU. Their short-bus instruction set is a nightmare to implement (mostly in one-time engineering charges) but once you trick it out with several hundred custom-engineered special cases, it effectively runs at the same speed as a RISC instruction set (though a bit hotter), with the benefit of higher code density. So your 4 MB of on-CPU cache memory achieves 30% more code coverage than a PowerPC-generation RISC CPU. By this point more of your CPU is devoted to cache than execution units. Duh. Duh. Duh. Duh. Nothing stresses your cache memory like a server workload. Turned out the Intel CPU cache hierarchy was the double-wide long bus under the tent—manhood where it mattered most.

    So there it is, Guy, if we ever bump into each other on a frozen pond, I’ve got a score to settle. Watch out for the bitter hit.

    BTW, that “bit hotter” footnote turned into a major Achilles heal when ARM finally started to make decent chips. It was ARM that should have been up on the mountain yelling, but that’s another story.

    The Apple secret sauce was always about selling the pretence of being beyond reproach. This does not require actually having the fastest machine. It requires the absence of buttons some geek might tweak and then thumb his nose at a more stylish customer who wasn’t equally tweak-savvy. Apple got rid of those damn buttons at every chance. The father-knows-best, one-size-fits-all, sex-appeal retail model means that some creative type (say Kaley Cuoco) can’t be bested by some dweeb with a pocket protector bleeding 1% more nitrogen into his turbo boost with the barometer falling.

    I suffered through a fair number of online performance debates that were more heat than light because of how effectively Apple pissed in the pool. There were some lost souls out there (such as myself) actually trying to deal with reality while Jobs played fast and loose with his Reality Distortion Field.

    Eat like a hummingbird, poop like an elephant.

    Okay, I take it all back. We’re friends again. Seriously. Here’s the rest:

    Read voraciously outside your area of expertise. … And then spread your knowledge—don’t keep it to yourself. … ¶ Wondering about the bird and the elephant? If humans had the metabolic rate of a hummingbird, we’d ingest 150,000 calories per day, and elephants poop 150 pounds per day. That’s how much information you should consume and pass along.

    If hummingbirds bought each other’s books, they’d need to consume 1,500,000 calories per day, with the other 1,350,000 going to their publishers’ cuts. BTW, he really means “Calorie” here, the large kcal calorie.

    Yes, I quibble. I think it’s a fine sentiment. Macvangelists have extra fibre, so in this post I’m really feeling my oats as I stroll down elephant lane.

    From his chapter How to Comment and Respond on Social Media:

    Stay on topic. You can provide supplemental information and even add color and drama, but you must stay on topic. If I share a post about hockey, God bless you if you want to talk about other sports or even about your non-sports passions. But don’t start telling people to donate money to the Republican National Committee. A link to your website is in poor form, unless it has something to do with hockey.

    I think this is in part addressed to authors showing up on other people’s blogs for some self-toutage. Ewww. This is actually the softest comment he makes about the people he designates as “orifices”. For the most part, he’s quick to cut his losses.

    Understanding the numbers. If Mother Teresa were on Google+, Facebook, or Twitter, some people would complain about her posts.

    You don’t say.

    The Missionary Position

    From what I’ve read, in her hospice God is your only candle; for the atheist, her facilities are a frigid hell. I’d rather die like Ratso in Midnight Cowboy, but each to his own.

    My point, though, is that it boggles me the quality of writer one finds reaching for the Mother Teresa trope after Tiger’s probity took such a hard fall. I guess she’s the charismatic RISC core of humane passage.

    Finally, his epigraph from the How to Navigate Amazon chapter.

    Male Amazon river dolphins will even insert their penises in each other’s blowholes in the only known example of nasal sex.
        — David J. Linden, The Compass of Pleasure: How Our Brains Make Fatty Foods, Orgasm, Exercise, Marijuana, Generosity, Vodka, Learning, and Gambling Feel So Good

    I’m reminded of an aphorism collected by George Herbert:

    Where the drink goes in there the wit goes out.

    I discovered Herbert the other day tracking down “living well is the best revenge”.

    The Amazon business model depends on experiencing the wit going out far less acutely than the alcoholic compensation. For “wit” read “autonomy”. Guy is intrinsically more open to co-dependence than I’ll ever be, and he’s probably the more successful man for it. (I just finished rereading Ringworld after a twenty-year hiatus. It’s amazing what you can do with a tasp. At least two of the smarter characters are hell-bent to escape from tasp heaven, the ferocious Kzinti warrior at first taste.)

    A funny thing happened to convenience on the way to the mall. We have this new notion of convenience entirely unlike Jonathan Zittrain’s concept of “generativity” which underlies the Unix credo. With this new model of convenience the only drawback is that you have to point a wet finger at God 24/7 to sample the Amazon breeze [insert cloudware gorilla here]. In this new era of social media, most people walk around with one finger in the air all the time. This strange posture no longer strikes anyone as a real burden.

    When Amazon sneezes, every damn butterfly on planet earth suddenly changes colour. Twitter rages, and life goes on.

    ———

    I’ve cherry-picked some choice morsels as I experienced the book. It’s not all porpoises and blowholes. It’s actually a solid, solid book. Self-publishing remains a wild west, and there’s rarely any money in it, so there’s that, but this book certainly clears the brambles though angels fear to tread.

    I wouldn’t buy this book merely to absolve myself from plughole-pyramid hypocrisy. If I were writing a book, I’d buy this book because I want it near me on a shelf, even if I were to do every damn thing differently than he advises, no, especially if I were to do every damn thing differently than he advises. It’s that kind of book. I don’t know quite how to frame it, but it’s a nice trick of voice to be as valuable in the breach.

    Well done, Guy.

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