The Edmonton Oilers played an impressive game against a difficult opponent last night, and won an important game for both teams. The fast break, pell-mell “this doesn’t look like the 1977 Montreal Canadiens” style of the team for absolute ages gave way to a textbook display of frustrating your opponent and waiting for time to deliver a win.
You know, every coach who arrived in Edmonton with Connor McDavid on the roster tried to get this team to play a structured game. I don’t know if Kris Knoblauch is the architect or if maturation of the gifted young men on the roster is the reason. I do know that yesterday Leon Draisaitl talking about dumping the puck in, making the safe play. Music!
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Oilers sign several new talents but have two areas to avoid
- New DNB: Oilers mastering Kings blueprint ahead of another possible playoff series
- Lowetide: Why Dylan Holloway should be recalled by the Oilers
- DNB: How should the Oilers deploy Cody Ceci? Here are their 4 options
- Lowetide: Who’s the Edmonton Oilers’ best player outside the NHL?
- Lowetide: How have the Oilers’ deadline acquisitions worked out so far?
- DNB: Why Oilers’ Zach Hyman might be the NHL’s most unlikely 50-goal scorer ever
- Lowetide: The Oilers face a looming cap crunch. How bad will it be this summer?
- Lowetide: If Oilers’ Philip Broberg is next man up, he needs NHL games soon
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects ranking, winter 2023
WHAT TO EXPECT IN MARCH
- On the road to: SEA (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- At home to: PIT (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- On the road to: BOS, CBJ, BUF, PIT (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 2-1-1)
- At home to: WAS, COL, MON, BUF (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 3-0-1)
- On the road to: TOR, OTT, WPG (Expected 1-2-0) (Actual 1-2-0)
- At home to: LAK, ANA (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
- Overall expected result: 8-5-2, 18 points in 15 games
- Actual March results: 9-3-2, 20 points in 14 games
- Oilers in 2023-24: 44-23-4, 92 points in 71 games
That was a big win, and sets up April nicely for Edmonton. As of this morning, the Oilers are four points up on Vegas with two games in hand and the Golden Knights having just nine games left on the schedule. Math is tweeting out ‘I’ve seen enough’ by April 1 if the weekend goes as expected. The LAK trail by five points with 10 games left on their schedule and the Oilers holding a game in hand.
Perhaps more interesting is the race for the Pacific division championship. The Vancouver Canucks are six points ahead, but Edmonton has two in hand. Winning both is possible, meaning there’s little separation down the stretch as the season expires. I’m not saying it will happen, but it could. That’s a very nice late-season story line.
THE NUMBERS
There are many good stories from last night, but I have to lead with Connor McDavid. One year after flattening NHL goaltenders with 64 goals, he arrives at Easter weekend with 95 assists. He’ll hit the century mark in the days to come, joining Wayne Gretzky (11 times), Mario Lemieux (once) and Bobby Orr (once). He was the biggest impact player in last night’s game, going 1-2-3. Same as it ever was.
The next name I wanted to mention was Stuart Skinner. I know the post-game conversation surrounded “lots of shots but few great chances” but I counted plenty and NST had it at nine. Skinner is an excellent NHL starter. Since November 24, his save percentage in all game states is .918, that ranks him No. 5 among NHL goalies with 1,000 or more minutes in 2023-24. There are two goalies from the Pacific division ahead of him (Joey Daccord, David Rittich) and we’ll see what the playoffs bring.
I always ask myself “can this team win with X as their (position) starter?” and my answer in the case of Skinner is yes. Especially when the team plays as structured a style as we saw last night.
Leon Draisaitl played the game I know he can play and it was pure joy for me. I wanted to mention him at the top and he goes third, that’s the kind of game it was last night. He had three assists, three HDSC and made smart plays all over the ice. The big man is such a joy to watch play the game.
Evan Bouchard had a goal and an assist and is showing calm feet more often. I think Mattias Ekholm’s quiet style is having an influence on the young defender. Evan Bouchard is having an offensive season for the ages. He’s doing something only Paul Coffey has managed in team history. Electric player with a calm demeanor. Deadly.
Darnell Nurse played another strong game to my eye, I was encouraged by the pairing (with Cody Ceci) and believe firmly that duo will be needed in a big way in the postseason. Good to see them back together and playing well. I thought the third pairing struggled, and Vincent Desharnais might not be 100 percent. I could be wrong, but there is some wobble in his game. I’m guessing he’s nursing something.
Evander Kane was at his rambunctious best last night, I also saw Derek Ryan good and hey now Adam Henrique is the owner of a 1.79 pts-60 five-on-five and a 67 percent goal share in the discipline. Now, his expected goal share is in the ditch (38 percent), but I think the coaching staff is finding their way with him. That’s as pleasing a game as I’ve observed this season. I wonder if they can duplicate that game on demand. If they can, things are about to get even more interesting.
CONDORS
Bakersfield plays tonight, the team is rolling now and being led by Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg. The veterans are occupying most of the prominent positions, but Max Wanner continues to develop in real time. I expect we’ll see fewer veterans on this team next year and do hope for more skilled forwards and more playing time for the kids.
So Jack Campbell is now tied for 5th in the AHL with a .920 SP. Take out the first 3 games where he was shell-shocked landing in the AHL and it is .929 or best in the league. Need to get him some games that last weekend of the regular season to continue re-building trade value and confidence prior to the playoffs. I like Pickard’s story and performance this year, but we might need Campbell in a long run.
They have cap room to bring up one of Broberg or Holloway and Holland said straight up they want to get Broberg in 2-3 games in April at least.
They would need to waive and send someone down in order to bring up Campbell and, actually, I’d need to check, but that might not even be enough cap room (unless he is the one call-up and Broberg isn’t called up).
Not to mention he’s out hurt with concussion right now.
He’ll be up for the playoffs but don’t see it in the regular season and that’s fine.
Summarizing!
Stefan drew two helpers and had a game-high 6 SOG as Portland won Game 1.
Day stopped 17 of 19 but drew the short end of a 3-0 decision.
The House of Stone was denied soup in an Ottawa loss.
Thoughts on the Pacific Division race re: Van and Edm…
As of March 29, Edm trails by 6, two games in hand and a HTH match upcoming with Van. WIn the 2 games in hand, win in the HTH match and then just have to outperform Van in the other games by ONE standing point to win the Division for the regular season.
Can they do it? (With Demko out it might help, BTW.)
For now let’s look at this weekend and the next week ending
April 7.
We both play ANA this weekend, Van gets them on 2nd game in two days. Both teams should win against the Ducks. Van gets Vegas, Arizona and LA, we make up a game in hand with St Louis, Dallas, Colorado and Calgary(spits).
LA and Vegas are in a dogfight for third in the Pacific and REALLY don’t relish the option of trying to advance in the playoffs through the Central Division if the WC matchups fall that way. So let’s say Van at best gets 2 of 3 this week for 4 pts. WE need to win our game in hand (Calgary, for argument’s sake) and win at least 4 of 6 possible points against St Louis, Dallas and Colorado. I think St Louis is very winnable and would not be surprised by a split vs Dal/Col.
This keeps us on pace and would leave us 4 back, 1 game in hand and a matchup looming as of April 7.
Week of April 8-14 both Edmonton and Vancouver play three games. Both teams get Vegas, Arizona, and each other. Can’t ask for a more equal schedule than that! Edmonton gets Vegas on Wednesday after a three day break after the Calgary game from the week previous, Arizona on Friday, and then get Vancouver AT HOME on Saturday 2nd game in 2 days. Vancouver gets Vegas on Monday, Arizona on Wednesday and 2 days rest until Edmonton on Saturday.We are Vancouver’s only road trip of the week, but hardly a gruelling flight betwixt the two cities.
Key here is to start out with a solid game and a win against Vegas, get ahead on Arizona and get some load management in before playing Vancouver in the HTH the next day. If we can Beat Vancouver in the HTH and at least match their results from the Vegas/Arizona games.
We could end the week of April 8-14 with 2 pts back, 1 game in hand…
Then we get down to the last abbreviated week of the season. Vancouver gets Calgary and Winnipeg(road game, may still be fighting for position in the Central). We get the toothless Sharks and a 2 games in 2 days roadie against Arizona and Colorado, who may be resting players depending on the remaining level of drama in the Central race.
If the Sharks are our game in hand, our other two games are roughly similar difficulty to Vancouver’s two games – CAl+WPG vs ARI-COL. Our biggest thing might be the fact we currently have THREE BTB game pairs left to vancouver’s one.
This is going to get very interesting very quick! Loser points could have quite some impact!
For first round matchups we can only face Nashville (wild card# TBD), LA or Vegas. Bettman +/- currently has DAL 27, COL 25, WPG 21 // VAN 25, EDM 21, Veg 15// WC are NAS 17 and LA 15 If those relative WC positions and Division champ positions hold, the Central Champ will win the Conference crown and get whichever of LA/VEGAS ends up as a WC team. The Pacific champ would pull NASHVILLE.
Further notes for this weeks matchups for Edmonton and Vancouver, ending April 7. Both play Anaheim this weekend, going back to the eve of the trade deadline Anaheim has one ONCE (Chicago, lost 9 time sin regulation and in OT once (Tampa). ROADKILL for both us and Vancouver.
We get a two game road trip @STL and @DAL, a day off betwee both games. In last 10 games since deadline STL is 7-2-1, Last 10 games for Dallas is 8-2-0 currently 6 game winning streak (LA/ARIx2/PIT/SJ/VAN). Four softie games in there with ARIx2/PIT/SJ but both wins against LA and VAN, while welcomed results for us, were by at least 2 goals. Could make a challenging week, but a good result relative to Vancouver would set up the end of season nicely.
As for Vancouver’s opponents this week, Vegas in the last 10 are 7-2-1 (3-0-1 in last 5), LA is in a positional dogfight with Vegas and are 6-4-0 in last 10. Arizona is also 6-5 in last 10 and scored 8 against Nashville last game.
I don’t think I would count Los Angeles out right yet.
7 of their last 8 games are against non-playoff teams and 6 of those games are at home.
The 2 road games are at San Jose and Anaheim.
For sure, not entirely, but the Oilers are much closer to VAN than LAK are to the Oilers.
Even if LAK finishes 10-0-0 the Oilers only need to go 3-8-0 in their final 11 to finish ahead.
I the Oilers were to win out VAN would need to go 8-1-0 to finish in 1st.
Not that either team is going to win out, but I think this shows the relative difficulty in the Oilers jumping to 1st vs the LAK jumping to 2nd.
Unpopular opinion but I think good things are good and bad things are the worst. And the Oilers played a great game!! This is a great looking crowd, a handsome bunch.
Any word on Jack Campbell’s injury? I noticed that Ryan Fanti has been backing up at least the last 2 games for Bakersfield.
While it has been noted as a “minor upper body injury”, given it was a puck to the mask in warm-up and they called up Fanti right away, I suspect its a concussion.
With that said, Matty had a quote from Gretzky I think that indicated they expect him back shortly after the weekend.
Cool, thanks.
For McDavid to end the year at 150 points and 1000 on his career to date, he needs to go 28 points over 11 games, or 2.54 PPG. I think he can do it. If he does, it will cap off an amazing season. If 1 PPG is a given, we still need to find Connor 17 points. Can he spread them over the 6 remaining games against non-playoff teams?
Anaheim
St Louis
Dallas
Colorado
Calgary
Vegas
Arizona
Vancouver
San Jose
Arizona
Colorado
17 / 6 = 2.8 (3) PPG, which is really 4 PPG because the 1 point already banked. Gives a pretty plain view of how possible it is for 97. He still gets 1 gimme against a playoff team, to get to 150/1000 points.
Anaheim 4
St Louis 4
Dallas 1
Colorado 1
Calgary 4
Vegas 1
Arizona 4
Vancouver 1
San Jose 4
Arizona 4
Colorado 0
While completely doable, a more realistic distribution could be something like:
Anaheim 3
St Louis 2
Dallas 2
Colorado 1
Calgary 5
Vegas 1
Arizona 5
Vancouver 1
San Jose 2
Arizona 3
Colorado 3
That would cap off an historic run. As of November 24, when Edmonton started off on their first 8-game win streak, Connor was 17 GP 20 PTS.
If you remove the slow start from his current totals, he is 52-102. That’s a 1.96 PPG pace. So, he needs to tick up a notch to hit that 2.54 but if he does, and gets to 150, over the period of time from November 24 through the end of the season that would be a run of 63-130 or a PPG of 2.06 which is a 169 point season pace.
Philly signed a new goaltender, Ivan Federov. 6’7″, out of Russia.
Geez. The net looks childlike compared to him. I wish I knew how to post a picture of it on here.
Does Stone and other LTIR players have to play one game to be eligible for the playoffs?
no
Sigh.
If only.
At 31 years old, i have to think this injury will slow him down. Especially considering that its been a couple years of major injuries. Poeple talk about the aging curve all the time, is their an aging curve model that deals with major injuries and time off? Same question could be asked of Landeskog, whose return would not really worry me.
And Hertl, in his 30s.
Ceci absent from practice today ill.
Good to see Hyman taking his regular line rush – it seemed like he missed shifts near the end of last night – maybe not have really played in the last 5 minutes I don’t think.
He took the fourth last shift of the game, but did miss one McDavid shift when KK went with Janmark and Nuge as 97’s wingers.
He missed 2 McDavid shifts
18’s last shift started at 15:06 of the 3rd and ended at 15:56, same as 97.
97 went on with 93 and 13 at 16:57 and then again at 18:57 with 29 and 28.
Sounds like he was at practice today but I do find this a tad concerning.
That slash probably hurt.
Took 4 shifts after the PP goal on the ensuing PP where he was slashed but probably prudent to keep him off the ice.
His biggest weakness is on the dzone boards so maybe a win-win for him and the team.
Hey Woodguy
Zach’s away from the puck play to my eye has slipped a bit
I’m hoping when Connor hits 100 apples and now Zach has 50 G they focus on other things
The last shift was a Draisaitl shift not a McDavid shift, that KK double-shifted 97 finto after giving him the tiniest bench break. I don’t consider that to be Hyman missing a McDavid shift. That’s a case of McDavid being on a different line, not a case of Hyman sitting when his line is out there. YMMV.
possibly an unpopular opinion, that was one of the most complete team games I’ve seen from the Oilers this season, from the 1st line to the 4th line & the D- core was just a real solid game.
Some wobble but nothing that made me demand a Trade’m all moment.
I thought Ceci had a real good game to the eye as well, Oilers are going to need that in the playoffs.
It wasn’t until the after the Kings scored (and played mostly 6 on 5) that they seemed to be much of a threat and, while they were mostly in their own zone, the Oilers were not in fire drill mode.
Yes to Ceci, maybe a break away from Nurse helped him reset some, but he looked just fine last night and even had a couple chances.
With the season over and Barrie starting their playoff run tonight, I’ve been hunting around for news on Beau’s achy breaky shoulder in the hope he can return to play if Barrie can go deep.
Most of the health sites have a large spread of time for recovery and return, anywhere from 3 months to a full year, so they’re no help.
And, sadly, there is nothing out there on the news front, so I’m guessing we should expect we won’t see him till next season starts.
Hey, on the bright side, that injury officially makes him an Oiler.
I just read a Barrie-Oshawa series preview that mentions Akey’s season-ending injury but no other update on his status.
Safe to assume he won’t be back till the fall.
I started snoop around, here is video from 2 days ago that answers all of our questions on his readiness to return to action:
https://youtu.be/I_SvfnCMaE0?si=zExgFlZ3dEAhSEDi
We had some glimpses of it last night and gord knows we’ve seen a lot of it the past 3 years but that Kings team and their commitment to a (boring) frustrating structure has given the good guys fits. I used to pull my hair out shouting at the screen about how doing the same ol thing and expecting a better outcome is beyond stupid.
This year, the Oilers have amazing strategic deployment and in-game tactical adjustments. This is KK’s doing. Woody could deploy but he couldn’t adjust well and that was plain sight last year’s playoffs. This year we’ve seen the Oilers get fed in the first only to come out and make the second look like a 20min PP.
The Kings looked very plain last night and that was KK’s doing. The Kings usually give other teams fits.
What I noticed: pinching defensemen closing gaps at the opposing blue line. The C playing further behind than normal to thwart cross ice stretch passes. The Oilers’ F post-play moving toward the puck to reduce the effect of pressure from behind. This was amazing deployment research. The Kings had so much difficulty generating speed.
He isn’t yet battle tested but I believe the Oil have an excellent coaching staff. ManWood was good. KK-Coffey are excellent. Maybe elite.
Not sure what you’re seeing. The second period has been our worst period all year long both in scoring and preventing the opposition from scoring and the numbers back that up.
I think the Admiral was referring more broadly to period to period adjustments, but I could be mistaken (semantics are a trap).
In this case, it’s not a trap. That’s exactly what I meant.
So you don’t have evidence for your theory then? It’s all just theory?
And while correlation is not causation, although it is often misattributed that way… lack of correlation refutes causation.
That’s a very difficult thing to measure without being in that dressing room, listening to KK’s suggestions, and then observing broad execution. This goes without saying that said adjustment would even be effective. That’s a lot of independent variables with likely many factors affecting outcomes (least of which, the opposing team’s own adjustments).
The only evidence in support of my comment is KK’s record and the Oilers consistent ability to come back from 1-2 goal deficits. Coming back consistently needs more than sheer will and talent.
I referred to it below, this is an eye-test observation. No RCT level of certainty here.
The Kings have been a tough out, and the Oilers are now 3-1-0 against them under Knoblauch. Strong game last night for sure.
But let’s not carried away at the difference from the Woodcroft days.
The Oilers were 5-2-0 regular season against the Kings under Woodcroft and beat them 2x in the playoffs (8-5-0 playoff record).
An overall 13-7-0 record under Woodcroft against the Kings would suggest that ‘beyond stupid’ probably isn’t a fair description what the Oilers were doing before Knoblauch.
Dare I say it, I think the Oilers should have (and needed to) dispatch the Kings in 5 games both years. Those extended series really weighed on the Oil. And let’s not forget that they were down 3-0 in game 4 last year and down 2-1 in games. That’s a huge hole. They also had to face an elimination game against the Kings the year prior.
Tough outs is true, if not an understatement (I say this respectfully). Kings had them on the ropes twice and sheer will + talent got them out of it.
I suppose I’m speaking more to an eye-test on general frustration playing the Kings. Yesterday the shoe was on the other foot. Last game against the Kings the Oilers turned the game 180 after the first and won it on will-talent and deployment adjustments.
And the game before last, just after the all-star break, the Oilers got spanked 4-0 by the Kings and folks were saying they’d never figure them out.
I think your characterization was unfair to Woodcroft, and I also think it would be unwise to believe that Knoblauch and/or the Oilers have now ‘figured out’ the Kings.
Knoblauch and Coffey have been excellent to be sure, but there’s no need to exaggerate the before/after difference.
Woodcroft was terrible at in game adjustments generally speaking. I don’t think that is even debatable.
I think that is very debatable. But if you have evidence that encompasses his general body of work, by all means present it.
Are you demanding proof from everyone today? Why don’t you show us the homework where Woodcroft was great at in game adjustmants.
Two people is now everyone. I’m not sure why you’re being so hyperbolic and defensive?
I’m not the one making the claim, you are. You have the burden of proof, not me. Attempting to transfer that burden to me, along with the the preceding hyperbole, implies you’re making a faith-based argument, not an evidence-based one. And people hate it when their faith is called into question. That’s why they frame it as “undebatable.” To preempt said debate.
God forbid someone disagree with someone who has no evidence. What is the world coming to when such travesties occur…?
smfh
I would second that. The Woody Oilers were great at line matching but poor at adapting tactics to the opposition.
It may not even be that. He was McLellan’s protege and Todd is stubborn as an ox. That coaching line likes to force players to enact their will regardless if it’s working or not
‘Planting seeds’
This. The stubborness of TMac is rivalled by the stubbornness of Woody. Now stubbornness is not a good or bad quality, imo, important sometimes, but also able to prevent you from making important, valuable changes.
I noticed some maybe set plays where they used McDavid and Draisaitl as a decoy (2:0 and 3:0) to drag the defenders away from the net front.
I also liked the D shot pass to the board behind the goal which Draisaitl picked up and almost scored with the backhand. I thought they did it twice: Bouchard and Ceci.
The Kings had a lot of shots in the beginning of the second period but they almost had no shots from the inner slot all game long. So the Oilers knew how to block them out net front.
The 0:4 after the All Star Game was an outlier. LA had a new coach with a new defensive system. So dead cat bounce and 1-3-1. And the Oilers needed to adapt what they did with the next game in february (4:2).
Simon Benoit re-signs with TOR for 1.35mil for 3 years which sets a nice comparable for management to use in contract talks with Vinny.
If Vinny wants that kind of money, they can sign Stecher for league minimum, then Mr. Maximus will be more than NHL ready.
You wouldn’t pay Desharnais $1.35M a year?
What on earth are you hoping he’ll sign for?
You know, an extra 600 000 should not be what breaks the bank on a good player.
Although in the case of Smyth years ago I beleive it was even less.
I suspect Desharnais unique qualities allow him to get more $ in free agency should he wish to go that route. Key word “should” in that sentence.
It’ll be interesting to see what happens with Vinny next year and how much LOILty and playing with your buddies you moved up with matters. He could easily sign for 2 or 3 years and then try and punch his ticket to Mtl. if he wants to play close to home.
Same goes for Charlie Brown. If he goes on a heater and finishes with 7 goals how much does that get him paid next year? It would be surprising to see him get more than the low $1Mish and at that price why wouldn’t you bring him back.
The talk about Vinny getting close to $3MM is wild to me.
$1.5MM X 3 – MAYBE he can negotiate up to $1.75MM per
That’s how see it, I personally wouldn’t pay a limited player extra cap for position. Have to stop doing that with Leon Connor and Bouch coming up
Get a physical 1M vet to play with Bro
I thought Nurse and Ceci were the best pairing last night. I also thought Kulak skated miles in coverage for Vinnie. Who knew a broken pinkie finger could create such problems? I’m surprised LT didn’t know about the injury–he did miss a couple of games. Would love to see Stecher in again against ANA and give the big lad another… break. But of a more pleasant sort.
Ek and Boosh were good of course, but I have to nick them for the one shift and the goal against. Ekholm with another point. He was held pointless against the Leafs, but that feels like the only game he played in March where he came away empty-handed. He’s on an absolute tear.
I thought we out-meaned and out-dirtied the Kings last night and their fans are probably just as mad at our team for their antics as we are about the Kings’ tomfoolery. Good. Suck it. Live by the sword, die by the sword, LA. Pretty sure that was a Willem Dafoe movie back in the day.
Van sits now till Sunday when they play the Ducks less than 24 hours after the Ducks play us. Remind me to send the NHL schedule-makers some white powder in the mail when I get a chance.
I think now we’ve seen it both ways a few times, I prefer the lines with Heinrich on Drai’s wing. That Kane–McLeod–Perry line looks like it’s going to bust loose and have a big game any day now.
The Canucks better watch out, those Ducks are going to be some mad ducks after the Oil are done with them.
I liked the third line with Kane-MacLeod-Perry. As long as Kane takes his frustrations out on the opposition, that’s ok. They’re just getting him primed for the playoffs.
You can’t go back but if Pete had gone with Talbot vs. Mikka in hindsight, the last five years would have been much better.
You might as well want Dubnyk.
I DO want dubnyk. For all those years.
I also want to go back to 06 and smack MacT for playing strange games with the backup goalies.
Desharnais has the broken finger. He will have it taped but it doesn’t get better in a week. Probably should have rested it more. His hands and puck handling did look off so maybe it was that.
If he is struggling with a hand injury he shouldn’t be playing. Stetcher appears to be serviceable at 3 RD.
Exactly.
Vinny is 27 in a contract year he’s bucked the odds by making the N.H.L to begin with. Many a borderline N.H.L player have lost ones job because of a injury. Vinny could have 6 broken fingers and he’ll still want in.
A broken finger has no effect on the terrible pinch he made at the offensive blueline letting the LA player blow right past him for a 2 on 1 in the third period with the game in the balance. I am not sure what he was thinking there…I fear he is going to make a very visible and costly mistake for us in an important game down the line…love the person, but he is the ideal 7th Dman…
Although I agree Skinner is playing really well since a rough start I don’t like the verbal he’s 5th among goalies since November 24. If you do that I think you need to take out each goalies worst month of the season to compare apples with apples.
But the farther away from today that “worst month” is, the more irrelevant it becomes.
October was a long time ago.
So we might as well throw out McDavid 1st month and give him the Art Ross now.
Not all the other goalies worst month came under a different coach, different defence coach, and different defensive system. I do not think you need to take out each goalies worst month.
Certainly Stu’s terrible start needs to be factored in when considering him for season long awards like the Vezina. But if your looking at Stu’s current performance, Nov 24 to present is a pretty good cut off. He’s been consistently excellent for over 3 months, and that’s how he’s playing right now. October is not a good indicator of his current play.
I agree with all of that except if you take out his worst month how do you compare him fairly to other goalies regardless of where the worst month was?
Suggest going back and watching how terrible this team was playing for that first month of the season. There may have been a few goals “on the goalies”, but this team was a train wreck.
Prospectamine!
The postseason begins tonight for the three CHL prospects.
Day-man is a fighter of the Knight-men (woo-ah-ahhhhh) as Flint is on the road to London, while Stonehouse’s Ottawa squadron heads to Brantford. Later, Stefan and the Hawks of Winter welcome the Royal Victorians.
Flint (Day) @ 5 p.m.
Ottawa (Stonehouse) @ 5 p.m.
Portland (Stefan) @ 8 p.m.
Both times, as usual, are Red Willow time.
Have zero interest in any more outcomes of any game for the rest of the season except Colorado.
The rest of the West is either pretenders or else Oilers don’t play them. Canucks should be the booby prize in 1st place.
Oilers are more concerned with getting through round 1 and either LAK or Vegas being likely, Vegas would be ideal to play in the 1st round since they’re forced to play players who have not been on the team for awhile. better to meet them eaRLY.
LAK are cannon fodder they haven’t got a chance and they know it.
Can Vegas end up in the other Conference playoff structure? That would be ideal.
I was glad to hear the players don’t take LA lightly, it’s ok for you though.
They take LA very seriously.
Unpopular opinion:
I loved the Draisaitl slashing penalty. Consider the context: he had just been slew footed by the same team that did it to him in the playoffs, causing a high ankle sprain. Super dangerous play.
DeBrusk was dead on with his colour yesterday: the slash should have been harder.
I’m with you 100%. If you’ve ever been slew footed you realize how dangerous and frustrating it is. As a player you can’t ignore it. There was a day the ref would ignore the slash.
Agree 100%. I still see that even-up-call as an equating of the two fouls even though one was quite intentionally dangerous.
And then Lizotte skated into Stu’s knee. Why? Because he had every incentive to do so.
The incentives: an incrementally dangerous play receives the same penalty, potentially erase a key player from the opposing roster, referees tend to try to even things up (so the cost of the act is low while the upside is high).
Leon needs to take lessons from Perry on how to accidentally inflict pain on dirty a-holes. Glenn Anderson was the king nobody got to cute with him because losing your teeth wansn’t worth it.
If you are going to take 2 min for slashing you might as well get your money’s worth and inflict some pain. Kings deserve every cheap shot they get.
Leon needs to be more disciplined.
It would have been better if he would have had a PP goal to rub in LA’s collective faces.
I’ll defer to the advice of Gordie Howe over Louie DeBrusk, essentially saying to bide your time and “take a number.”
Granted, it was easier back then with only one ref and no helmets, but there’s always opportunity to line up retribution in a quasi-legal yet questionable manner to send a message.
Where I think we agree is that if you’re going to send a message, send it with no doubts as to your intent.
I think Leon at his size needs to hang with a tough guy this summer and practice tussling
Then next season the next guy that hacks him beat the daylights out of him. Keeps the flies off when the victim won’t take it, with prejudice
As LT said – all the Oilers have to do to tie the Dys for first place is win their 2 games in hand and defeat them at home on the 13th. The Dys play Vegas twice in the next 11 days. I could see Vegas being very much up for those games and more interested in playing them than the Oilers in the first round. It will be clear if it’s “game on” and a showdown for first place on the 13th after the Oilers and Dys play Vegas earlier in the week.
As for the defense. Bouch and Ekholm are playing like a top pair. That allows Nurse and Ceci to be 2nd pair which they are easily capable of. Vinny’s hand is probably still hurt and should take some time off. We bought Stetcher for a reason.
LT didn’t say that and it would be wrong if he did. The Oilers actually have to do better than that. Tying the Canucks means we’re still in second place. We need one more standings point than the Canucks to finish first.
Good catch. It is the most RW wins for the tie breaker and Vancouver is 5 games ahead at the moment.
I meant to catch up – not to pass
That Draisaitl spin-o-rama backhand pass had me laughing. I rewound 5 times to watch it again and again. What a superb game from 29.
Mind blowing pass.
Agree!
They tried some alternatives from Nurse/Ceci – they were no better and likely even worse and Ceci plays better than Nurse.
The pair has had its struggles but its also had many stretches of real success.
We know its not ideal as a “tough minutes w/o McDavid pair” but its the way forward (I don’t see them switching Bouch/Ek away from McDavid).
I think they can win with those top two pairs.
I think a Deharnais at the top of his game is an excellent 3RD for the playoffs but he is what he is and he’s often not at the top of his game – consistency is tough. When he’s not, he is slow to move the puck and he turns it over. He was such a long reach that he can often recover.
If he’s hurt, why is Stecher not playing?
Ceci is much better than Desharnais in the top 4.
Possession wise, Nurse-Ceci just don’t have the same ability that Ekholm-Bouchard do in making those clever plays up top that maintain possession. Draisaitl’s wingers are also significantly weaker, so it’s not all them.
LT highlight Henrique’s numbers trending in a positive direction. I’m still a bit unconvinced on him, his game seems to lack a certain oomph. I have a bias towards speed, though. Really too bad Kane hasn’t seized the day.
Until next season…. right?
For me, I projected about a PPG (80 points if he stayed healthy) and, honestly, on this team, I think he’s a PPG player for the next 7 years – I think he can break 90 as well.
That will put him nearly 750 points after 10 full seasons. If he plays another 5 seasons thereafter on the backend of the curve, finding another 200 points, he’ll be knocking on 1000 points for a defenceman which puts him top 10 overall right up against the Potvins, Leetches, and Robinsons — possibly with less games played, I.e. a first-ballot HOF. I’m not saying it’s far fetched… but its far.
LOL.
Why not add another 4 seasons? Then he ends up with even more points, in your mind.
I’m not the one establishing outlandish projections in this thread, I’m merely continuing the established logic of OP.
This rests on the assumption that Bouche remains on a historic PP. that’s a big assumption.
Why am I still taking OP’s heat?
Did you know he’s in Columbia?
If he’s in Columbia he shouldn’t even be on here;
He can be studying the coca/chinchilla connection.
LOL
Bouchard is only a half developed player until either he finishes top ten in scoring or else learns how to play defence to the point where he can be inserted anywhere in the defence and be great.
The idea of paying him more than 7 million a season makes me want to puke. There is something rotten in the way the NHL manages its contracts.
Bouchard is a fine defensive player – in fact he’s a high end defensive player in certain areas, such as defending zone entries and the rush.
He can be, and is, inserted anywhere in the lineup and his numbers away from EKholm and McDavid don’t drop off.
Evan Bouchard is a 1D in the NHL
OMG OP…surely you jest. ” Bouchard is a fine Defensive player ” I thought you gave up the mind bending stuff ! He is a magic man passing the puck with a cannon…
but a huge question mark in his own end….definitely NOT a fine defensive player !
Bouchard is a fine defensive player and is high end in certain areas.
He is prone to the big turnover and to get beat on the boards by high end players.
Lets not forget how often he has the puck on his stick – probably as much as any d-man in the league. He makes some big and visible mistakes but the quantity of them is not large.
A fine offense is a finer defense. Bouchard creates offense from the defensive zone more often than not.
Bouchard can be an extremely effective player and contributor to winning if a coach appreciates Bouchard’s defensive limitations, and deploys him appropriately. The quickest way to get to bad Larry Murphy from good Larry Murphy is to believe that Murphy or Bouchard is something that they are not, which is what OP is doing.
The Oilers are going to have to pay for Bouchafd, but he will only be worth the money if the GM and the coach understand his limitations defensely and surround him with the appropriate complementary D, and deploy him to minimize his exposure defensively.
They eye test shows that he makes good defensive plays 90% of the time – a zone entry denial, a good stick, a won battle, etc. Yup, there is the odd bad pinch or giveaway but given how much he plays and how much he has the puck, the quantity of those bad plays is low.
We know how great his numbers are. The general though, which is also implied in the above misguided post, that he’s a function of Ekholm and McDavid is false – his 60% goal share and 63% expected goal share in 137 minutes at 5 on 5 without both EKholm and McDavid is evidence of that.
Bouchard is a legit 1D in the NHL and his defensive game is part of that.
If it doesn’t quack like a duck, it isn’t a duck no matter how much you want it to be.
More bad contracts are given to offensive defensivemen with defensive challenges than any other position because GM’s delude themselves into believing they are #1D’s.
Yes.
Of course, the 2.4 GA/60 and the 2.27 GA/60 while playing the most 5 on 5 TOI/G for the Oilers is additional evidence that the challenges are over-stated.
I understand why some can’t get over the highly visible mistakes, which he does make, even if they don’t happen nearly as often.
The likes of Doughty and Makar and Hughes are making mistakes for goals against as well.
I agree that Skinner was excellent last night.
I missed the first 15 minutes of play (I am in Colombia) but he looked very solid, calm in his movements, square to the puck, etc. throughout – I was very confidant with the way he was playing and there were a few dangerous sequences.
I rarely say “no chance” on a goal but that quick strike and crazy release snipe was about as close as it comes on a non-odd-man rush chance.
Skinner is a “good enough” goalie; provided the defence and that means the team has got him in mind for a lot of the time.
He has yet to stand out to the point where Oilers get shelled and Skinner stands up and crushes the opposition.
How good is he? Good enough to play for the current Oilers. His play is of a higher standard than anyone since pre 2006 Game 1 in the Finals Roloson, or The Bulin Wall.
Skinner has stolen games this season where the Oilers were outplayed and he was the primary reason they won.
This take isn’t as outlandish as the Bouchard take mind you.
I posted yesterday morning that, for me, one of the key reasons that it was such an important game was to, potentially, put some separation between them and the Kings (and Knights) so that they aren’t battling for positioning to the very end.
I know Holland mentioned the plan to get Broberg 2-3 games, however, if they are battling right to the end, will they follow through?
I know that the likes of McDavid and Drai MAY take one game off to the end season but some separation will allow for a real run of 17-18 minutes, if the coaching staff chooses.
Nice to see them stuff the LAK.
It’s almost like they’ve already beaten LA in the upcoming playoffs.
I imagine they will choose. Knoblauch has given them TOI rests against weaker teams all year, and the duo’s minutes are down year over year.
Last season McDavid played 22:23/60 and Draisaitl 21:44/60.
Under Knoblauch they’ve played 21:31 and 20:34, with less of it on the PK as well.
Might have been the Oilers best game of the season last night. Skinner and Draisaitl really leading the way. Kane was the boss last night.
Draisaitl made smart plays – except for his retaliatory slash after he had drawn a penalty. That had me ranting for a good five mins about how stupid that was.
Overall great game by the good guys and I hope LA gets swept out of the first round embarrassingly.
Yea wasn’t a great play but that was a pretty chintzy call. He barely touched him.
McDavid and Draisaitl clearly show signs of Evander Kane/Corey Perry influence.
These modern players.
Great game for the Oil last night. So nice to see them moving their feet instead of gliding to where they need to be. I really really hope this style of play is replicatable
Nothing like a Kings game to get Edmonton playing the way they ought to. I love how LA always brings gutter hockey as if it is going to work THIS TIME. Oilers withstand it because they can be tough assholes too if they need to be, and then Edmonton gets the lead because LA can’t score and then they are chasing and can’t keep up because Edmonton is more quick and we win.
It must be so satisfying for the Oilers players. Edmonton often gets a boost after LA. I hope and expect this game signals the playoff-prep period of the season and we’re locked in now.
I am also coming away from multiple replays thinking 97 didn’t mean to tip it on the goal, he meant to control it down to his stick, and that 29 was going for Henrique’s chest on purpose. These guys are magic.
Draisaitl shot it in off his chest on purpose 😉
Oh yeah sure, hey Rico why don’t you stand Infront of the net and I’ll Ricochet the puck off your chest.
I mean, that’s what Hyman does on the power play (as a human deflection board at the far post).
They aim for his stick. Do I have to explain the Ricochet off Rico’s chest? Get it?
Bouchard’s game is so impressive live. He makes tons of smart “microplays” — little fakes, hesitations, smart passes — that maintain possession. He is also so, so good on retrieving pucks. There is something purposefully lackadaisical about his retrievals which gets misinterpreted as laziness, but it’s really just off-beat jazz, 3/4 or 6/8 time instead of 4/4, throwing the puck pursuer off. If he weren’t a first pair NHL D, he’d be a quarterback. And how about that ornery cross check on, was it Arvidsson? He’s getting meaner!
Ekholm yesterday was just fantastic. Yes he flubbed a clear leading to the only goal against, but I love how he is constantly scanning the ice. Like Bouchard, so many smart, crisp passes. Those two really are perfect bookends to one another.
My new nickname for Bouchard is NASA because he’s a completely dynamic and impressive player but when something goes wrong its a spectacle.
Props to you, this made me laugh really friggin hard this morning.
I remember when NASA sent men into space and they never lost any of them.
Happy Easter everyone.