Standing on the Shoreline (First Day of 2020)

by Lowetide

Each January 1 on this blog, I write a post with the same title. Often the verbal is decidedly downbeat. Here’s a passage from last year: “Peter Chiarelli trying to fix the holes with a mountain of silicone sealants and a glue gun, while Ken Hitchcock is trying to get his three dressed up to look like nine. Six losses in a row. The call is coming from inside the house.” You know, fun stuff.

Last night had everything: A blowout through most of two periods, absolute panic in the last 21 minutes, an injury to Oscar Klefbom and some good work by Kailer Yamamoto with the game on the line. The game was entertaining while also being life threatening. If you have high blood pressure, I hope you PVR’d the third period. Holy crap!

THE ATHLETIC!

The Athletic Edmonton features a fabulous cluster of stories (some linked below, some on the site). Great perspective from a ridiculous group of writers and analysts. Proud to be part of The Athletic, less than two coffees a month offer here. 

  • New Daniel Nugent-Bowman: James Neal puts on New Year’s Eve show to remember in Oilers’ thriller
  • New Lowetide: Midseason review of ‘reasonable expectations’ shows Oilers are on track with preseason targets
  • New Jonathan Willis and Daniel Nugent-Bowman: How are our Oilers predictions holding up at the midseason mark? We decided to find out
  • New Jonathan Willis: Oilers midseason report card shows an unbalanced team with a lot of replaceable parts
  • Lowetide: Oilers recall Kailer Yamamoto and William Lagesson
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘If I have another one in a short time, my career could be over’: Recent head injuries concerning Oilers’ Matt Benning
  • Jonathan Willis: The Oilers have actual problems; Connor McDavid’s defensive game is not among them
  • Jonathan Willis: Oilers waive veterans Markus Granlund, Brandon Manning in Saturday shakeup
  • Daniel Nugent-Bowman: ‘We didn’t come with the mindset to play a hard game’: Poor preparation leaves Oilers coach steaming
  • Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers’ goaltending depth chart in need of talent injection
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ fleet centre prospect Ryan McLeod finding the range with the Bakersfield Condors
  • Jonathan Willis: Leon Draisaitl is struggling badly, even as the Oilers’ depth forwards seem to be coming around
  • Lowetide: Complete Oilers top 20 prospects list, winter 2019
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 5 prospect, Winter 2019 — Raphael Lavoie
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 4 prospect winter 2019: Tyler Benson
  • Lowetide: Oilers No. 3 prospect winter 2019: Ethan Bear
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 2 prospect winter 2019: Philip Broberg
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ No. 1 prospect winter 2019: Evan Bouchard

OILERS AFTER 42 GAMES

  • Oilers in 2015: 17-22-3, 37 points; goal differential -22
  • Oilers in 2016: 21-14-7, 49 points; goal differential +5
  • Oilers in 2017: 18-21-3, 39 points; goal differential -21
  • Oilers in 2018: 20-19-3, 43 points; goal differential -6
  • Oilers in 2019: 21-17-4, 46 points; goal differential -7

This year’s team isn’t quite last year and is a little shy (especially in goal differential) of the playoff team. Cam Talbot had a .919 SP after 34 games on New Year’s Day 2017, Mikko Koskinen has a .912 SP after 25 games this morning. Maybe that’s the difference.

OILERS IN DECEMBER

  • Oilers in December 2015: 6-6-2, 14 points; goal differential -11
  • Oilers in December 2016: 7-2-5, 19 points; goal differential +2
  • Oilers in December 2017: 7-5-1, 15 points; goal differential +3
  • Oilers in December 2018: 6-7-1, 13 points; goal differential -12
  • Oilers in December 2019: 5-8-1, 11 points; goal differential -12

Oilers were -12 goal differential in 14 games, that’s always going to be a tough month unless it’s 1985. Speaking of, Edmonton hasn’t won a NYE game since 1985.

WHAT TO EXPECT IN DECEMBER

  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 1-0-0)
  • At home to: OTT, LAK, BUF, CAR (Expected 2-1-1) (Actual 1-2-1)
  • On the road to: MIN (Expected 1-0-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: TOR (Expected 0-1-0) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • On the road to: DAL, STL (Expected 0-2-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • At home to: PIT, MTL (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • On the road to: VAN (Expected 0-0-1) (Actual 0-1-0)
  • At home to: CAL, NYR (Expected 1-1-0) (Actual 1-1-0)
  • Overall expected result: 6-6-2, 14 points in 14 games
  • Current results: 5-8-1, 11 points in 14 games

After all that, the club comes within three points of my prediction. Honestly. It was a painful month. I would like it to be followed by ‘Winning Month’ please and thanks. Light a candle for Klefbom, all numbers NST and five on five unless noted.

OILERS 2019-20

LINE 1 James Neal-Connor McDavid-Zack Kassian played 12:07, going 13-12 Corsi, 8-6 shots, 1-0 goals and 2-1 HDSC.

James Neal scored three goals, two on the power play plus an assist with the man advantage. Man he has quick hands. Strong game. Send the damned pick to Calgary, this thing is over. Connor McDavid had two shots, won nine of 20 in the dot and had a PP assist. He was brilliant, but on a night when the pucks weren’t going in (gorgeous setup for Nurse). Zack Kassian’s sweet pass to Neal got Edmonton off and running. Four shots, HDSC and a takeaway. Played well. That pass to Neal is what Kassian is going now consistently and it’s going to get him paid.

LINE 2 Jujhar Khaira-Ryan Nugent-Hopkins-Sam Gagner played 10:01, going 9-14 Corsi, 6-6 shots, 1-2 goals, 3-5 HDSC and 1-6 offensive-defensive zone starts.

Jujhar Khaira had an assist, shot, HDSC, three giveaways plus another even strength assist. Nuge had a great game, despite winning just two of 10 on the dot. He scored a goal, had two HDSC, all three of his assists came on the power play. Like McDavid, he was setting up linemates who didn’t cash. Sam Gagner had three shots, three takeaways and sat in the penalty box for a minor penalty. He was also dreadful in coverage.

LINE 3 Joakim Nygard-Leon Draisaitl-Josh Archibald played 8:48, going 7-14 Corsi, 3-6 shots, 0-1 goals and 0-2 HDSC.

Joakim Nygard had a takeaway and drew a penalty, his speed was useful at both ends of the ice. Leon Draisaitl had two giveaways and two takeaways, going 6-6 in the faceoff circle. His goal came on the power play. Josh Archibald had a goal, two shots and like Nygard his speed was useful all over the ice.

LINE 4 Riley Sheahan-Gaetan Haas-Kailer Yamamoto played 6:46, going 5-8 Corsi, 2-3 shots, 1-0 goals and 0-1 HDSC. Interesting this line had no offensive zone faceoffs and three in the defensive zone. Tippett said Yamamoto is a “tenacious player with good hands” and that’s a great description.

Riley Sheahan had an assist and 1:15 on the penalty kill, he played a rambunctious game. Gaetan Haas had a shot on goal and was in the photo a lot. Kailer Yamamoto had a strong debut, two shots (both solid looks), a takeaway and some physical play. Scored the seventh goal when New York pulled their goalie, made the entire play. He intercepted a pass, made a fine outlet pass to Khaira, received it, ignored the thrown stick (which made it an automatic goal no matter the actual result) and ended New York.

PAIRING ONE Oscar Klefbom and Ethan Bear played 11:36, going 10-13 Corsi, 6-5 shots, 2-0 goals, 2-4 HDSC.

Oscar Klefbom had a strong game until the injury, Hail Mary full of grace. Klefbom had an assist, plus a power play assist, three shots with the man advantage. Three giveaways five on five. Ethan Bear had an assist, a shot, four giveaways and a takeaway. Blocked six shots. Passed like a God.

PAIRING TWO Darnell Nurse and Kris Russell played 11:04, going 10-17 Corsi, 6-8 shots, 1-1 goals and 1-1 HDSC. Pairing had one offensive and six defensive zone starts.

Darnell Nurse had one shot, a giveaway and four blocked shots. He also hit the post with an absolute cannon of a shot. Kris Russell drew a penalty and had a giveaway.

PAIRING THREE William Lagesson and Adam Larsson played 9:04, 8-15 Corsi, 4-7 shots, 0-1 goals and 0-3 HDSC. Pairing had three offensive and five defensive faceoffs.

William Lagesson had one shot and two giveaways, he looked mostly under control during the game. Adam Larsson defended a lot, had one giveaway.

GOALIE Mikko Koskinen stopped 27 of 32, .844. I’m not going to blame him for the five goals against, they were brilliant shots or tipped and often involved defensive breakdowns in front of him. Maybe you’d like his glove to be outside the goal when he catches it, but the key item was Gagner not contesting the cross-ice bullet. I’ll be interested to read your thoughts on Koskinen’s performance.

Goals Against

On the Kreider goal, three on two against Nurse and Larsson. Kassian first forward back and he’s working hard but won’t get there. Skjei (I think it was Skjei) bulls Larsson, Nurse goes inside to block a free lane to Panarin, and Panarin sends a great pass to Kreider who cashes. Nurse stayed in the middle to cover Panarin, counting on Kassian to thwart the pass. High skill Rangers. My take is Nurse had to suppress the pass across, even though it might mean Panarin one on one with the goalie. Your mileage may vary.

On the Strome goal, Panarin gains the zone far left side. He stops up and uses the downtown traffic (Strome with his mark 89 coming in together) to gain separation from Kris Russell (Sam Gagner getting in the way). Panarin pass to Fox, almost intercepted by Nuge, Fox to Strome and bang it’s in. Who had Strome? I’d say Gagner but he never actually had Strome.

The Marc Staal goal begins with the big defenseman carrying the puck through the neutral zone. Drop pass to Panarin, far left at the blue line again. Oilers are four back and in good shape. Staal drives to the net, both men on the pairing back in (Russell, Larsson). Sam Gagner with the soft coverage, doesn’t prevent pass to slot, where Staal, Larsson and Russell have all congregated. Shot from Strome tipped by Staal.

The Panarin goal starts with an alley oop to the neutral zone, Adam Larsson throws it but it lands in Hades (at Panarin’s feet). Man that guy is good. Panarin enters the zone going the speed of light, with William Lagesson and Larsson obeying the speed limit and skating backwards. Lagesson does a good job of keeping Panarin to the outside (his shot comes from the right side dot) but it’s a perfect shot and that’s all she wrote.

The Zibanejad goal starts with Adam Fox at the LW position in the Oilers zone. Pass back to Tony DeAngelo, back to Fox, through Sam Gagner (who had lost his stick) and Zibanejad rifles a shot that Koskinen stops, but only after it enters the net. Lordy.

CONDORS 2019-20

Condors lost in overtime, it was an interesting game with several notable items. Evan Bouchard had six shots on goal, Markus Granlund did not play. Kirill Maksimov scored again, he is now 2-2-4 in four games. I swear to you it’s an annual happening: Prospects muddle through until Christmas and then take off after December 25. It’s been happening in the AHL forever.

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ArmchairGM

Any news on Klefbom? Do we know if he made the trip east? If he isn’t ready to go tonight, does Bear get PP1 duties?

hunter1909

G Money,

Check Out:

Hunter1909’s Official 2020 Death March™ Major Announcement:

By the end of January 2020 the Hunter1909 Death March™ Oilers will be New and Improved due to the acquisition of a first class web team.

The Death March™ site may continue to develop throughout the remainder of the NHL season which for the Oilers means early April when golf season starts.

Thank You For Your Cooperation

Wilde

ArmchairGM: do you think he’ll get even more offensive opportunities now that Yamamoto is with the big club? We could see an explosion…

Yes, but it may just look like a continuation on his 5-on-5 numbers with the real boost coming on the PP

ArmchairGM: But please elaborate on the portion of your post that I highlighted above. I’m very interested in the rookie pro’s progression but cannot watch the games due to time zone issues, and there’s precious little information available anywhere other than this blog, mostly thanks to you.

Basically this:

Wilde: this strange mix of his positional deficiencies being exposed quite often doing absolutely nothing to tame his motivations with the puck

You would think that as a rookie, he’d be going through the usual process of getting his game settled down, and then taking more chances but he seems to just be jumping on stuff no matter how many times he gets burned, and he looks really good when it works. I’m still going to be pessimistic until he stops getting owned/owning himself on positioning/reactions, though, because he’s well behind where Bouchard was in last year’s playoffs in those aspects.

ArmchairGM

jtblack: I believe he is 47CF% & .930 PDO.

Fairly decent given team performance

Neal is actually 50.93 CF% with a 0.954 PDO. His xGF% is 50.46 while his HDCF% is 52.53.

jp

Harpers Hair: We were talking about the last decade.

The Canucks won two pennants, went to game 7 of the Cup finals and had the 4th most points in the league.

Oilers won a playoff series, drafted first overall 4 times and are still a one line team that will miss the playoffs.

Stop living in the past.

It’s over.

Aside from 2011 the only other pennant the Canucks won was 1994.

In the last 9 seasons the Oilers won a playoff series. The Canucks won none.

Any modicum of success the Canucks have had is in the past as well.

ArmchairGM

Wilde: Samorukov’s season offensively is flying under the radar completely because of the boxcars.

Fantastic post, thanks so much for doing this and sharing it. Maksimov is at 0.978 GS in his last 5 games, do you think he’ll get even more offensive opportunities now that Yamamoto is with the big club? We could see an explosion…

But please elaborate on the portion of your post that I highlighted above. I’m very interested in the rookie pro’s progression but cannot watch the games due to time zone issues, and there’s precious little information available anywhere other than this blog, mostly thanks to you.

Any further details about Samorukov and Bouchard would be greatly appreciated!

G Money

flyfish1168: Hi G Money
Nice to see you here. All the best

Thanks Fly! It seems I am up to my usual scheisse-disturbing ways!

SkatinginSand: Since when does stating that Hall was not a perfect player equate to “Hall was the problem”?

Why is it that a considerable percentage of the posters on this blog immediately bring on the vitriol when someone points out that Hall, with all of his skill, has never been a good defensive player?

Interesting that you call it ‘vitriol’ … it was a single, mildly sarcastic sentence.

More specifically, “Hall was the problem” generally refers to the attitude or opinion, widespread among the fanbase, media, and apparently the team management and captain at the time, that Hall’s supposed badintheroomlackofleaderliness and notgoodatthedefensitivitiness were the root cause (“the problem”) behind a decade of suckage.

Despite overwhelming evidence, from eye and analytics both, that the only thing worth watching on that team and the only thing with even the faintest hope of outscoring the other team was (until McDavid arrived) Hall’s line.

At the time, proponents of that school of lack-of-thought usually were part of a near-100% Venn diagram overlap with the “Chia is a genius” and “MOAR BIG HOCKEY” crowd. While those types were widely mocked here (hence the Lowetidian reputation for intelligent opinionizing), even so they gained lots of traction.

Your defensive (:-D see what I did there?) reaction surprises me a bit, because the “Hall was the problem” attitude remains surprisingly widespread today, despite how overwhelmingly and repeatedly wrong the proponents of HWTP / CIAG / MBH proved to be, and so it remains a position as deserving of mockery as it always has been.

And – it should be noted – often appears masked as “bad in the room” or “couldn’t share the Alpha Dog role with McDavid” or “Hall was bad at defending”, the latter being a silly argument to make when he had guys like Ference and Nikitin behind him.

WG likes to post the list of defenders that “supported” Hall during his time here, and it makes for a good, long but acutely painful laugh.

Personally, my favourite type of players are the McDavid and Hall ultra-high-event types anyway, the ones that rack up lots of chances for and against, but create so much danger on the attack that they become outscoring machines.

So the “bad at defending” thing just sounds ridiculous to me. I don’t want Hall or even McDavid defending, I want them high in the zone with defenders retrieving the puck and getting it to them on the fly so they can do the hardest rarest funnest thing in hockey, which is creating scoring chances with elite speed and sublime skill and dogged determination.

Now, all that said … were you / are you one of those HWTP types?

Honestly, I have no idea.

I was responding to Jethro’s post in relatively self-contained fashion.

I suppose any further interpretations will be a matter of those deciding for themselves whether the footwear is the right size.

Wilde

Also, re: Kirill Maksimov; I’d argue that the breakout game on November 21st that I posted about a few times was the real accelerating point of his season.

His Game Score per GP (5-on-5) is now up to where McLeod’s is, solidly in a lower-middle tier of the forwards , above the role players, between them and the recovering last-year’s top line, who are below the tweeners, who are below Yamamoto – who’s in his own tier all alone, the same distance from the tweeners as they are from Benson/Currie; like so:

1.08 – Yamamoto

0.91 – Cave

0.79 – Gambardella

0.71 – Currie
0.70 – Benson

0.60 – Marody

0.54 – McLeod
0.54 – Maksimov (yes, they’re literally the exact same number, not just rounded to be so)

0.42 – Koules
0.41 – Malone
0.40 – Esposito

However, in Maksimov’s opening part of the season, where I believe he was healthy scratched at one point, this was what the game log looked like in terms of GS:

0.06
0.07
-0.09
-0.05
-0.15
0.81
0.11
0.52
0.47
0.66
0.05
0.20

The average is 0.22.

Then, remarkably he had a game where he ended up with the highest GS of anyone any time in the season*, at 2.92 – along with some very well executed PK duties – and since then, the log looks like this:

2.92
0.06
-0.44
1.37
1.18
0.06
-0.04
1.07
0.21
0.71
1.22
1.79
0.82
0.10
0.96

For an average of 0.80 – for reference, Benson’s number for the season last year was 0.86.

If Maksimov can keep this up, and get close to Benson’s 18-19 number, hooo boy. The vet comp I want to use is actually Josh Currie, in terms of detailed profile – people who follow me on Twitter might remember my remarks about Currie’s NHL time – I think it’d be interesting to see how close he can get to Currie-like performance, because I’m pretty certain that guy could be an upgrade on some of the Oilers bottom-six at this very moment.

It’s a very timeline-shifting phenomenon, and I wonder what would be the anti-Holland way to pull this thing off.

In a conversation in early December, I remember speaking to one of the Bakersfield Condors fans (who lives there, goes to games, etc) who follows me on Twitter and offhandedly I mentioned that I could see the Condors turning their CF-to-GF woes around and ending up a high-flying team of 7-5 wins and 5-1 losses.

What I was getting at is that they’ve got a ton of strong forwards, and on defence, their unbalanced players are weighted towards offense: Bouchard’s case is obvious, but Samorukov’s season offensively is flying under the radar completely because of the boxcars. It’s this strange mix of his positional deficiencies being exposed quite often doing absolutely nothing to tame his motivations with the puck.

Between that, and the goaltending situation, the salvageable season is definitely one with that character. The key is probably Marody.

*Record later broken by Kailer Yamamoto

jp

ashley: Well that’s only half of the story.Those good years were on the best defensive team in hockey coached by the most defensive minded “trap” coach – a strategy that brought MIN much success.Rounding out the whole Roloson story actually makes the strong argument that goalie save percentage is more of a team metric rather than a goalie stat.

Prior to that in CGY and BUF, Dwayne did not have a good save percentage.Was that because Roloson was not good at GK, or was it because he played on teams with forwards who defended poorly?I believe the latter contributes more to the goalie effectiveness than is given credit.

Thanks for softening your reply.

I’m not at all trying to argue that goaltending isn’t affected by team, just that Rollie was a goalie of some note on arrival in Edmonton.

Bag of Pucks

JimmyV1965: “Yamamoto (KG’s pick) gets the callup nod over Benson (Chiarelli/OEG pick).
The call is still coming from inside the house. The chairs move but the song remains the same.
This org really needs to start making more decisions on the basis of the numbers and less on internal groupthink.“

This is what you said in an earlier post. Isn’t this all conjecture with no supporting evidence? Although you don’t say it directly, you imply that Yama was brought up because Benson no longer has a cheerleader in the .org.We really don’t know what numbers they are using and based on reports from Wilde and OP, it seems like Yama was an equally good choice as Benson.

OP criticized other for presenting opinions without supportive metrics and then propped up his own flimsy opinions with statements like “I watch the games” and “think like a GM does.”

I personally don’t care if any individual poster agrees with my opinions. I believe people are entitled to different viewpoints and we’re all free to engage or ignore as we see fit. Unfortunately, OP absolutely cannot relent from antagonizing those he disagrees with, with passive aggressive insults as his primary stock and trade.

And that’s where we diverge, because I don’t view this community existing as a debate club forum for narcissists looking to score points. At its best, and that’s a frequent occurrence, it’s an egalitarian discussion with tolerance for dissenting viewpoints. The very fact that I’ve told OP on numerous occasions that’s he free to ignore my posts rather than insulting if he disagrees and he prefers to insult instead says everything one needs to know about this individual imo.

ashley

jp: Roloson finished 2nd and tied for 1st in SV% in the 2 NHL seasons before his trade to the Oilers.

Well that’s only half of the story. Those good years were on the best defensive team in hockey coached by the most defensive minded “trap” coach – a strategy that brought MIN much success. Rounding out the whole Roloson story actually makes the strong argument that goalie save percentage is more of a team metric rather than a goalie stat.

Prior to that in CGY and BUF, Dwayne did not have a good save percentage. Was that because Roloson was not good at GK, or was it because he played on teams with forwards who defended poorly? I believe the latter contributes more to the goalie effectiveness than is given credit.

Harpers Hair
Harpers Hair

Lowetide: The tough part about the Sedins is they only got to one final. Should have been more.

Agree.

Lots of “Time Wasted On The Way”

Chelios is a Dinosaur

The Vancouver Canucks have a statue of Roger Nielson waving a white flag outside their arena.

This is a franchise that has immortalized surrendering, of all things.

We are the stories we tell about ourselves. The Canucks tell themselves: we are whiny little bitches.

Harpers Hair

Reja: Still believe Oilers have a better percentage in the modern era. All I know Is I was around for 5 cups could of easily been 8-9. The Kanucles biggest claim to fame were those god awful jerseys.

We were talking about the last decade.

The Canucks won two pennants, went to game 7 of the Cup finals and had the 4th most points in the league.

Oilers won a playoff series, drafted first overall 4 times and are still a one line team that will miss the playoffs.

Stop living in the past.

It’s over.

unca miltie

Harpers Hair,

true

Reja

Harpers Hair: How many do the Leafs have?

Still believe Oilers have a better percentage in the modern era. All I know Is I was around for 5 cups could of easily been 8-9. The Kanucles biggest claim to fame were those god awful jerseys.

Reja

unca miltie: I have a recollection of Rolly taking Minnesota on a deep playoff run too before he got to Edmonton.

Played really well for Tampa in 2011 playoffs as well. Rolli was definitely a late bloomer I liked him he played with a lot of spirit. We should be so lucky to have a Goaltender carry us like he did in 2006.

Harpers Hair

unca miltie:
On the topic of Laura Brannigan, I saw her live at Keyano Theatre in Fort Mcmurray. My best guess would in the fall 1990. What a powerful singer. the only other voice that I have heard live that strong was Donna Summer, who was amazing.

Edit: wow, I am getting old, that was 30 years ago.

Heart.

Two voices like that.

Harpers Hair

Reja: How many cups does the Canuck franchise have?

How many do the Leafs have?

Reja

Harpers Hair: Think about it for a few minutes.

The Canucks were operating under a “win now” mandate from management and really didn’t embrace a rebuild until the Sedins retired…TWO YEARS AGO.

Mike Gillis and Laurence Gillman got fired because they followed that mandate although they knew the window had closed.

However, in the time since, the Canucks have built one of the best prospect pools in the league, a competitive team and one of the best AHL teams.

While hardly world beaters, they are at least respectable with better depth, better D and better goaltending than the Oilers who have been rebuilding since Taylor Hall was drafted TEN YEARS AGO.

How many cups does the Canuck franchise have?

unca miltie

On the topic of Laura Brannigan, I saw her live at Keyano Theatre in Fort Mcmurray. My best guess would in the fall 1990. What a powerful singer. the only other voice that I have heard live that strong was Donna Summer, who was amazing.

Edit: wow, I am getting old, that was 30 years ago.

unca miltie

jp: Roloson finished 2nd and tied for 1st in SV% in the 2 NHL seasons before his trade to the Oilers.

I have a recollection of Rolly taking Minnesota on a deep playoff run too before he got to Edmonton.

Harpers Hair

Scungilli Slushy:
I am looking, so will post here in case anyone is interested.

Better teams, roster taken from Capfriendly Depth Charts, roster make up including scratches and IR – drafted / traded / signed / projected cap hit / projected cap space:

St Louis 13 / 11 / 3 / 83.1M / 20K
Washington 12 / 6 / 4 / 81.6M / 170K
Pittsburgh 10 / 9 / 7 / 80.7M / 1.09M
Boston 12 / 4 / 11 / 82.6M / 0
Colorado 5 / 10 / 7 / 74.7M / 6.79M
Tampa 10 / 6 / 6 / 79.25M / 2.25M
Chicago 10 / 12 / 5 / 82.9M / 240K
Winnipeg 13 / 2 / 12 / 76.54M / 4.96M
Edmonton 10 / 4 / 12 / 80.59M / 951K
Toronto 10 / 11 / 7 / 95.11M / 0
The Dys 8 / 6 / 12 / 82.92M / 30K

You smart folk can figure out what this all means.

I notice better teams tend to trade more than sign. Maybe because the players are typically younger so the results are more predictable and less expensive, for a GM that knows what they are looking at and knows how to make deals.

Colorado and the World’s Best Team Ever in TO have used trades to get better more quickly than the draft would allow, re shaping their rosters. More traded for than drafted players. Hint hint.

Of the teams that have a high proportion of signed players, Boston is doing well, The Dys according to HH are rising but I know they’ll go back to what they should be, and two teams are hurting bad, The Jets and our Oilers.

I hope you fully enjoyed this incredibly deep analysis of hockey.

Think about it for a few minutes.

The Canucks were operating under a “win now” mandate from management and really didn’t embrace a rebuild until the Sedins retired…TWO YEARS AGO.

Mike Gillis and Laurence Gillman got fired because they followed that mandate although they knew the window had closed.

However, in the time since, the Canucks have built one of the best prospect pools in the league, a competitive team and one of the best AHL teams.

While hardly world beaters, they are at least respectable with better depth, better D and better goaltending than the Oilers who have been rebuilding since Taylor Hall was drafted TEN YEARS AGO.

JimmyV1965

Bag of Pucks: All conjecture wirh no supportive evidence to support.

Your three usages of the word “think” are the giveaway here counsellor.

“Yamamoto (KG’s pick) gets the callup nod over Benson (Chiarelli/OEG pick).
The call is still coming from inside the house. The chairs move but the song remains the same.
This org really needs to start making more decisions on the basis of the numbers and less on internal groupthink.“

This is what you said in an earlier post. Isn’t this all conjecture with no supporting evidence? Although you don’t say it directly, you imply that Yama was brought up because Benson no longer has a cheerleader in the .org. We really don’t know what numbers they are using and based on reports from Wilde and OP, it seems like Yama was an equally good choice as Benson.

jp

Bag of Pucks: My take is OP is shitting on other people’s opinions, as per usual,and when challenged for a burden of proof to validate his insufferable arrogance, he ducks behind, “hey, I’m just a curious guy trying to have a dialogue.”

My entry to this was Jethro’s “Benson should have been the call up, based on every metric possible” comment. Which I didn’t think was reasonable.

The only widely available metric we have is Pts/G, which does favor Benson as a pro. The only other metrics I’m aware of are based on Wilde’s tracking. Those seem to unanimously favor Yamamoto.

I have no idea who’s the better call-up, but to essentially say it’s fact that Benson is better seems completely unreasonable to me.

What you think about OP has no relevance to this from my POV.

Wilde

I’ve been curious about the Condors’ CF-to-FF (and CA-to-FA) ratios, been running the numbers as of two nights ago and, although I threw out my FF numbers for much of last year and some of this year (didn’t start giving them two or three or four or five watches in 0.25-speed when I wasn’t sure until about a month into this year, so those and the retro-tracked ones are the only ones I trust) and there appears to be a fairly significant trend.

At least it looks significant, essentially the Condors are getting a ton more of their CF to be FF than the FA (of CA) they allow.

I’m interested to see how it compares to McLellan’s Oilers and Sharks because as I’ve mentioned before, they’re very similarly run.

OriginalPouzar

All, I just realized the Wilde was on the SuperFan podcast with Sunil a few days ago to talk about the Condors and the prospects. I’m about to listen now but I can’t imagine its not great and informative.

Wilde

Bag of Pucks: other people’s opinions

Bag of Pucks: burden of proof

Bag of Pucks

OriginalPouzar: Its my opinion – unless Holland has spoken expressly to why he picked Yamamoto over Benson, its all opinion.

Of course, mine is based on substantive analysis of the team and team needs which is generally what GMs use to make decisions.

Wouldn’t hold up in court though.

Bag of Pucks

jp: I thought OP was clear he was stating his opinion. Jethro claimed something as fact without providing supporting evidence.

My take is OP is shitting on other people’s opinions, as per usual, and when challenged for a burden of proof to validate his insufferable arrogance, he ducks behind, “hey, I’m just a curious guy trying to have a dialogue.”

OriginalPouzar

BagofPucks: All conjecture wirh no supportive evidence to support.

Your three usages of the word “think” are the giveaway here counsellor.

Its my opinion – unless Holland has spoken expressly to why he picked Yamamoto over Benson, its all opinion.

Of course, mine is based on substantive analysis of the team and team needs which is generally what GMs use to make decisions.

jtblack

OriginalPouzar: There are now 31 teams, so……, great success!

Yah BUFFALO was #31.

Ibagrew woth your take on develooing prospects. edm has beeb awful at developing ALL prosoects they need more prosoects who not only make the NHL but are effective players (not stars, but better than replacement level).
.I feel like they are starting down a good path now with
JONES BEAR LAGESSON BOUCHARD BROBERG

YAMAMOTO BENSON LAVIOE??

OriginalPouzar

Sierra: Tull says “by every metric” and you simply state your opinion and then you have the audacity to call him claiming you know more than he does because you “have scene him good”.

Opinion based on watching the players not looking at stats. Yes, actually watching players play is important, in my opinion, hence why there are scouts, hence why Holland was just in Europe, twice now, to watch Puljujarvi and Slep and the Chanel One Cup and now has been at the World Juniors.

I never called anyone out either – I was simply told my opinion was wrong based on every metric. No, my opinion is not “wrong” and the statement was simply wrong regarding “every metric” and, no, metrics don’t tell the entire story.

jp

Bag of Pucks: All conjecture wirh no supportive evidence to support.

Your two usages of the word “think” are the giveaway here counsellor.

I thought OP was clear he was stating his opinion. Jethro claimed something as fact without providing supporting evidence.

Bag of Pucks

OriginalPouzar: I think the decisions is based on Holland trying to win hockey games and he and Tippett of the opinion that the quicker and broader-skilled (PK, more effective forecheck, more effective defensive player, etc) player would help the team do that.

Of course, he could be show-casing but I don’t think that’s the case (no way to know for sure) and I definitely don’t think the choice was made because Keith Gretzky drafted Kailer.

All conjecture wirh no supportive evidence to support.

Your three usages of the word “think” are the giveaway here counsellor.

jp

Jethro Tull: You are wrong about this. Benson should have been the call up, based on every metric possible. In fact Benson should have been called up when Kass and Nuge were injured.

I guess you’ve missed the Condors posts from Wilde?

Sierra

OriginalPouzar: Feel free to actually post the reasoning as opposed to just, well, essentially, saying “I know more than you” and “my opinion means more than yours”.

I would be happy to discuss my thoughts based on, in addition to numbers or “metrics”, watching about 30 Condors’ games this year (or portions thereof).

Tull says “by every metric” and you simply state your opinion and then you have the audacity to call him claiming you know more than he does because you “have scene him good”.

Scungilli Slushy

I am looking, so will post here in case anyone is interested.

Better teams, roster taken from Capfriendly Depth Charts, roster make up including scratches and IR – drafted / traded / signed / projected cap hit / projected cap space:

St Louis 13 / 11 / 3 / 83.1M / 20K
Washington 12 / 6 / 4 / 81.6M / 170K
Pittsburgh 10 / 9 / 7 / 80.7M / 1.09M
Boston 12 / 4 / 11 / 82.6M / 0
Colorado 5 / 10 / 7 / 74.7M / 6.79M
Tampa 10 / 6 / 6 / 79.25M / 2.25M
Chicago 10 / 12 / 5 / 82.9M / 240K
Winnipeg 13 / 2 / 12 / 76.54M / 4.96M
Edmonton 10 / 4 / 12 / 80.59M / 951K
Toronto 10 / 11 / 7 / 95.11M / 0
The Dys 8 / 6 / 12 / 82.92M / 30K

You smart folk can figure out what this all means.

I notice better teams tend to trade more than sign. Maybe because the players are typically younger so the results are more predictable and less expensive, for a GM that knows what they are looking at and knows how to make deals.

Colorado and the World’s Best Team Ever in TO have used trades to get better more quickly than the draft would allow, re shaping their rosters. More traded for than drafted players. Hint hint.

Of the teams that have a high proportion of signed players, Boston is doing well, The Dys according to HH are rising but I know they’ll go back to what they should be, and two teams are hurting bad, The Jets and our Oilers.

I hope you fully enjoyed this incredibly deep analysis of hockey.

OriginalPouzar

jp: AHL teams are required to dress 13 developmental skaters per game (not including goalies). 12 of the 13 must have played less than 260 games, one is allowed up to 320 games (games played in the NHL, AHL and European pro leagues count to the total).

That means 5 players with more than 260 games can play on a given night, plus another who’s played between 260 and 320 games.

Condors who qualify as vets are:
Malone
Currie (he’s in the 260-320 game window)
Cave
Lowe
Manning
Granlund
Peluso
(and Jurco who’s injured)

The first 5 of those played last night so there was room for Granlund by my count since Currie can still be counted as developmental in the 260-320 bracket).

Looks very likely there will be issues with the veteran limit at some point though.

Thank you.

Yes, I know the rule and cited 3 veterans in the lineup last night and, potentially a 4th (as I mentioned, wasn’t sure if Currie’s ECHL games count as he doesn’t hit the threshold with just AHL games).

I forgot about Cave which would have made it 5 (I though maybe 4 without Currie).

OriginalPouzar

Jethro Tull: Holy, where to start. This easily wins “most ironic post”.

To sum up:

1) You stated as fact that Yamamoto’s call up was extremely justified based on team need. What, exactly, did Ken Holland tell you personally, that the team needed?

2) The burden of proof is on you for making the initial claim and inferring that the community as a whole reached consensus on this.

3) You obviously have Google. I shouldn’t have to post a white paper with citations just for saying one player is better than another when it is patently obvious and easy to look up.

4) So because I don’t watch as many AHL games as you, I can’t have an opinion? I’ve watched a couple. Benson was and is the better player. That’s a fact, not opinion, supported by hard numbers.

5) Not everyone has the time to post 50 million times a day, so a lot of the arguments you think you win are just people who can’t put the time in.

6) And again, “watched the games” means little more than “seen him good”.

1) My opinion of team need including more quickness, more tenacity of the forecheck, more ability to turn pucks over in the defensive zone, professional PK experience, PP drawing acumen

2) I didn’t know there was a burden of proof – I thought this was a fun place to talk about the Oilers. I also did not imply anything and any inference you made on forum consensus is on you. As far a a “burden or proof”, I’ve posted my reasons in this thread and prior threads (which you read) – even before the call-up was actually made.

3) You brought up all these metrics so, speaking of burden of proof…….

4) Another inference, and another incorrect one – of course you can have an opinion. I was trying to have a discussion about it. My reference to watching the games is because you cited solely metrics (without stating anything about them or which ones) and nothing about actually watching the players play. Numbers are important and informative – scouts are still employed as much as data analyzers for a reason – watching the game remains primary.

No, that is 100% NOT a fact, that is your opinion.

There are also many metrics that also “benefit Yamamoto” including PK TOI, PP drawn, etc.

This is without even adjusting for quality of linemate which massively favours Benson.

5) Skip over the unnecessary personal shot.

6) Yes, watching the player play is of primary importance, in my opinion.

yeraslob

Fantastic women singers?
I submit the late Laura Branigan and her rendition of The Power of Love.
At one point, (upon hearing it for the first time) I was asking myself “How did she do that?”

jp

ashley: An example from way back? Dwayne “the drain” Roloson was not known for dominating the NHL before coming to the Oilers and dominating the NHL.

Roloson finished 2nd and tied for 1st in SV% in the 2 NHL seasons before his trade to the Oilers.

JimmyV1965

ashley:
Taylor Hall and Jordan Eberle were terrible defensive forwards and still are.I don’t buy that a player is so good at offense they shouldn’t be expected to defend.That’s an excuse for laziness/cheating for offense and the ingredient for terrible team chemistry.

Further to my post above, I think a really valuable stat would be goalie save percentage for each player.We sometimes use this as a measure of how a player has had bad or good luck being on the ice with a goalie who saves less or more shots.But goalies probably save about the same shots, but struggle with dangerous scoring opportunities which are a function of the on-ice players ability to defend.

If I were to build a team, I would pursue players who are on the ice with high save percentage.Those are the players who are going to take us to the Stanley Cup.There are good offensive players who can defend.The two are not mutually exclusive.Steve Yzerman is a good example of a player who was brutal in his own end in the early to mid 80s but found a way to also be a defensive player in addition to being wildly productive on offense and was an integral part of the Red Wings success in those years.

High save percentage players may even be under valued given that the contracts tend to reward point production.

I’m not sure I’m buying this narrative that Stevie Y was a bad defensive player early in his career. Stevie Y started his career on a shit team. He supposedly got better defensively later in his career, when guys like Lidstrom, Fedorov, Zetterberg and Datsyuk arrived. I suspect if we surround McDavid and Drai with guys just as good as these all stars. their defence will improve too.

jp

OriginalPouzar: Yes, the rule is still in place.

I don’t think it was what kept Granlund out last night as I think only Lowe, Manning, Malone would have qualified as veterans last night.

Actually, maybe Currie counts too, depends on if his ECHL games are included.

AHL teams are required to dress 13 developmental skaters per game (not including goalies). 12 of the 13 must have played less than 260 games, one is allowed up to 320 games (games played in the NHL, AHL and European pro leagues count to the total).

That means 5 players with more than 260 games can play on a given night, plus another who’s played between 260 and 320 games.

Condors who qualify as vets are:
Malone
Currie (he’s in the 260-320 game window)
Cave
Lowe
Manning
Granlund
Peluso
(and Jurco who’s injured)

The first 5 of those played last night so there was room for Granlund by my count since Currie can still be counted as developmental in the 260-320 bracket).

Looks very likely there will be issues with the veteran limit at some point though.

Jethro Tull

Lowetide: I love that “There She Goes” song, don’t know the band at all but that’s a dandy record

Originally by the scouse band “The La’s”. They were kind of a precursor to the Madchester scene.

Jethro Tull

godot10:
My name is Lucic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fIGBlFdSxTk

He lives on the second floor?

Jethro Tull

OriginalPouzar: Feel free to actually post the reasoning as opposed to just, well, essentially, saying “I know more than you” and “my opinion means more than yours”.

I would be happy to discuss my thoughts based on, in addition to numbers or “metrics”, watching about 30 Condors’ games this year (or portions thereof).

Holy, where to start. This easily wins “most ironic post”.

To sum up:

1) You stated as fact that Yamamoto’s call up was extremely justified based on team need. What, exactly, did Ken Holland tell you personally, that the team needed?

2) The burden of proof is on you for making the initial claim and inferring that the community as a whole reached consensus on this.

3) You obviously have Google. I shouldn’t have to post a white paper with citations just for saying one player is better than another when it is patently obvious and easy to look up.

4) So because I don’t watch as many AHL games as you, I can’t have an opinion? I’ve watched a couple. Benson was and is the better player. That’s a fact, not opinion, supported by hard numbers.

5) Not everyone has the time to post 50 million times a day, so a lot of the arguments you think you win are just people who can’t put the time in.

6) And again, “watched the games” means little more than “seen him good”.