I have a feeling we’re going to watch other teams do plenty of building this week, and I believe the growth for this Oilers team is going to come via internal sources. Dylan Holloway leads a group of interesting forwards, Philip Broberg leads a rail-thin blue line depth chart and Olivier Rodrigue has the best future in goal among the prospects. This is going to be the quietest summer in Oilers history unless there’s a helluva surprise on the way.
Connor Brown to the Oilers makes so much sense it's almost as it the contract is already signed. A look at what Brown can bring and what he may not be able to deliver. https://t.co/rvCmzx7ce6
Since I’ve done an AHL Q & A and a draft Q & A, thought it would be a good idea to start this week with an overall session including the team, the summer and what may come.
What do you think Ken Holland will do? The options are not strong.
What are the positives? This is a good team. Edmonton could win the Stanley Cup in 2024.
Blue sky for me. What’s the biggest move for 2023-24? Acquiring Mattias Ekholm at the deadline. It was a massive addition.
Is it enough? You always want more. Always.
What are the negatives? The areas of weakness are known but the organization doesn’t have the available tools to fix them.
You lie like a sidewalk! Good 60’s reference there.
Trade the draft picks! Would that be the 2023 second-round pick or the 2024 first rounder? There isn’t much left.
Trade the young players! I am not convinced the correct move is trading Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg or any other value contract.
Trade the RFA’s! You’re weak in the brain! And you are peevish. Not a good look for an adult. I do fear Evan Bouchard could be in danger if he balks at the contract, but that’s probably a next year thing. He’ll get signed and then we’ll see about next year. His big contract will be a big contract.
What about Ryan McLeod? I don’t see the wisdom in trading him, honestly. He’s very valuable and won’t cost the moon. McLeod signs for $2 million according to rumour (I think it was Gregor) and Edmonton needs him for what was an effective third line last season.
Will Holland trade a defenseman? Don’t know. Cody Ceci is the obvious choice if he is moving someone out, but he’ll need a replacement and that replacement will have to make less than $3.25 million a year. Ceci is the defenseman I’d trade, but in looking for a less expensive/better replacement, it’s all shades of grey.
Why doesn’t Holland just trade Jack Campbell? He could, but the deal is five years and Campbell played one year. I think Holland is more likely to wait a year before doing it.
Leon Draisaitl said ‘cup of bust’ and Holland isn’t trading Campbell! Bring on Steve Staios! We’re here now, at draft week and then free agency. If Daryl Katz was going to change managers, it would have happened by now. The earliest you could see an announcement is probably September, and that would be announcing Holland’s replacement starting 2024. Even then, you have Draisaitl’s contract next summer and that might be a Holland task. Too much we don’t know.
Do you think Staios is the next GM? Trending that way, you’d have to lock people in a room and give them truth serum but the Oilers kind of telegraph these things.
Has Ken Holland been a good GM? Yes, I think so. The pandemic hurt him, he inherited an addled cap and kept on running up that hill, limiting options many summers. Including this one. However, he added Zach Hyman, Evander Kane, Mattias Ekholm, Cody Ceci, Brett Kulak, Derek Ryan. He also had the patience to wait on Stuart Skinner and others to emerge from the farm. That’s something Peter Chiarelli was unable to execute.
Holland did some clangers. Oh sure, but that’s part of the job. I think, overall, Holland has done a good job for Edmonton.
Why is there so much anger? Mostly because people wanted more than one Stanley, and most of those who do remember the olden days when there were 10 fewer teams and some dummy GMs.
What is Holland’s biggest sin? He allowed the industry to pass the Oilers in regard to analytics. Tyler Dellow was there eight years ago, do you have any idea how strong that department could be now?
What is Holland’s biggest accomplishment? He has the team in a window to win. That’s been a long time coming but we are here.
Can we at least talk about trading Jack Campbell? Sure. So, let’s say it is Jack Campbell and the 2024 first-round selection to the Chicago Blackhawks for Taylor Raddysh.
Well that’s a helluva start! Sure. Now, you have $12 million once you buyout or trade Kailer Yamamoto.
What else? You could trade Ceci for Pesce, probably takes another piece to get it done, but you have the cap room now and I do believe it’s an upgrade.
So the top pairing is Darnell Nurse-Brett Pesce? Yes. Or Ekhom-Pesce and then Nurse-Bouchard run together. You have your top-four defense at that point, then you can run Brett Kulak, Philip Broberg and Vincent Desharnais as the third pairing in some kind of rotation.
And then the money runs out? No, not at all. You could sign Connor Brown to that deal we talked about ($1 million plus bonuses), sign Bouchard ($3.2 million), McLeod ($2 million), Klim Kostin ($1.2 million), Raphael Lavoie ($800,000).
Then we’re done! No, there would be room to sign Nick Bjugstad ($1.6 million) and Laurent Brossoit ($1.5 million) and still have about $1,000,000 left for the season’s run.
Music! Holland should do that! If he did, would you be happy?
I don’t like the goaltending. Get out.
OILERS MOCK DRAFT
There isn’t much, and so to make it interesting I traded the No. 56 selection to the Carolina Hurricanes for No. 62 and No. 139.
No. 62 overall: LW Juraj Pekarcik, Nitra MHC (Slovak). He is ranked No. 71 by Bob McKenzie, No. 70 by Red Line, No. 43 via Pronman and No. 67 from Wheeler. Pronman pays heed to the skating and calls Pekarcik “average” and that’s a compliment from Corey. Wheeler notes his age (very young for the draft, Sept 12 2005), speed and size (6.02, 183). Looking at a PF to replace Reid Schaefer and as insurance in case Maxim Berezkin doesn’t come over to North America. This would be a strong pick, not certain Pekarcik would be the top prospect but one would have to at least contemplate the idea.
No. 139 overall: RD Axel Landen, HV 71 (J20-Swe Jr). Not much buzz, everyone loves the other Axel in this draft. I have him No. 92, 126 on Pronman’s list. He notes his skating and strong defending. This would be an excellent get, Landen could go earlier (there will be a run on blue, there aren’t a bunch).
No. 184 overall: LD Rodwin Dionicio, Windsor Spitfires (OHL). Overager, 6.02, 205, big offense. He’s a quality junior and I believe well worth the risk.
No. 216 overall:RC Jonathan Fauchon, Blainville-Boisbriand Armada (QMJHL). A quality two-way center, his QMJHL outscoring numbers on a bad team are phenomenal. I swear to you this fellow is worth a draft pick.
I’d really like to keep Fog and McLeod as the core of the 3rd line. If you could add Brown to that it would awesome but Kostin works as well (or we might have enough money for Bjugstad if Kostin goes back to Russia).
On the 4th line- Janmark sounds like he is coming back along with Ryan and Holloway. Get the kid back at center this season in low pressure 4th line situations with 2 vets.
The trades are Yamo and one of Kulak or Ceci. Kulak’s value may never be higher and it would be interesting to see what he coud pull in trade.
Between Kulak and Ceci I think Kulak is the one to move. The Oilers have internal cover for Kulak, they don’t have cover for Ceci. Trading Ceci would leave a hole that could only be filled through trading scarce assets for a replacement who likely carries a higher cap hit.
Of course, ideally they keep both. But since the cap is a thing, it’s possible they won’t have that luxury.
dangilitis
June 26, 2023 10:39 pm
Draisaitl getting less Hart points than Rantanen is absolutely bonkers.
All media apologizers saying you can’t give votes to Draisaitl because he wasn’t the MVP on his own team, but you can to Mikko?
Draisaitl had 23 more points than him, and 15 points more than Pasta.
During his Hart acceptance speech McDavid says he can’t wait to get back. They have unfinished business.
Kurri17
June 26, 2023 8:14 pm
Hahaha, one PWA voter had McDavid FIFTH on his ballot. That is inexcusable, I hope we discover which writer voted this way so that I can ensure I don’t take any of their material seriously!
I was wrong, sorry for this horrible info. I did not think this would be made public and why it was doesn’t make sense to me. Now that writer could be ridiculed/targeted/publicly shamed.
I don’t see anything good coming out of it.
OriginalPouzar
June 26, 2023 8:12 pm
Pastrnak got one first place vote – other that that, it was unanimous for McDavid.
If I was a betting man I would say that no good Oiler hater Stan Fischler. The man is a New York writer who hated Gretz and all things Edmonton and still does.
Ancient Oilers Fan
June 26, 2023 8:00 pm
Hall’s draft mojo is so powerful he even wins the draft lottery for a team he’s going to be traded to.
Has there ever been a No 1 overall with a more bizarre career profile?
Selected by Edmonton in 2010, he had the unfortunate luck of going to the Oilers during the DoD, suffering through the tail end of the Kevin Lowe era, along with the incompetence of MacTavish and Chiarelli.
Just when things were looking up with the arrival of McDavid, and the emergence of Draisaitl, he is deemed expendable, and gets traded to New Jersey.
After winning the Hart trophy (in a year when he was outscored by 5 other players, including McDavid), he then misses over half of the next season, resulting in the Devils getting Jack Eichel.
He then gets traded to purgatory/Arizona (for the pick that became Dawson Mercer – who outscored him this year), moves on to Buffalo, and finally gets to the team that could have taken him 2nd overall, if the Oilers had done the smart thing and drafted the RH centre.
This year, Boston has a season for the ages and then suffers a humiliating first round loss to the Panthers.
Today, he was basically traded to Chicago for free, 8 years after being part of a trade that was universally derided, when the Oilers got “just Adam Larsson.”
He’s now on his 6th team (!), one that is about to draft another No 1 overall phenom, 13 years later. He’s played with 8 other No 1 overall picks, and yet he’s only played in 39 playoff games. He’s got the same number of Hart trophies as Leon Draisaitl, but has already been passed in career goals, assists and points, despite playing 4 more seasons.
It’s really hard to put Hall’s career into perspective, honestly.
The Devils never drafted Eichel and Buffalo could not have drafted Hall 2nd overall because Boston drafted second that year. But you’re right, Seguin would have been the better pick. Overall point taken though on it being a weird career. I’m still pissed he beat Connor for the Hart that year. No way Hall should have finished higher than around 3-4 in the voting.
Oops! Jack Hughes I meant; he did play with Jack Eichel though.
Boston was the team with the second overall pick that I alluded to – imagine how much different Hall’s career would have been if he had landed in Boston … Cup win in his rookie season? Playing with Bergeron and Chara right from the start. Doesn’t have the same ‘maturity’ issues that resulted in Seguin getting traded, and plays his entire career with the B’s. A couple more visits to the Finals. Maybe he puts up the same numbers but how different is the lens through which we view his career now, with all those playoff runs that the B’s have had over the past decade?
The other thing that’s crazy to me in retrospect, was all the talk about how the Oilers traded away a franchise player for a stay-at-home defenseman. While Hall may have won a Hart trophy, it’s debatable whether he was even the best player that season. He will also likely be the only Hart trophy winner to not gain induction to the Hall of Very Good Players. His peak season is less impressive than RNH’s, and most of the other No 1’s that he played with have, or will probably go on to have more impressive careers (except Yakupov). Do we still think of him as a franchise player given the way his career actually unfolded?
Such an interesting career.
Kurri17
June 26, 2023 7:51 pm
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Last edited 9 months ago by Kurri17
Boil-in-the-Oil
June 26, 2023 7:43 pm
It’s being reported that Taylor Hall has been traded from Boston to Chicago. If Bedard is chosen 1st overall, Taylor will be playing with the premier centre on his arrival. Who knows more than Hall when it comes to playing alongside the top draft pick. Good luck Taylor, looks like you’ll be waiting a while for your next shot at the cup.
OriginalPouzar
June 26, 2023 7:25 pm
Backland wins the King Clancy.
I was pulling for Nurse – we know he is a monster both on and off the ice – a true stale of the community!
Anyone surprise that the loud voices of Oilers “fans” are already bashing Holland for “giving Janmark a second year” and other for even thinking of bringing him back near $1MM.
The same that talk about the risk in the 2nd year of Ryan’s contract (which is solely if he’s on LTIR to finish this coming season which could limit burying options) are digging in a the bad penalty that Janmark took in the playoffs.
To be fair, I don’t love Janmark back at $1MM or over but, damn, the “pre-transaction bashing” is wild stuff.
I like Janmark in the role he was occupying last year. He had a really tough season with respect to being left off the NHL roster due to cap constraints, followed by injuries. I think he’s a good bet to perform well for us for the next two seasons, if he can have more luck staying healthy.
1952barry
June 26, 2023 3:56 pm
is there a team that would take campbell in trade? IMO no
While there is some president for trading bad goalie contracts, none to my knowledge have involved 4 years and 20 million cap hit. Most would deem that contract unmovable.
The Sens traded Matt Murray with 1/4 retrained and a 3rd and a 7th to the Leafs. Reportedly, the Leafs already regret the trade. He only had two years on his contract.
The Leafs also found a buyer for 2 years of $3.9m per for Petr Mrazek, which only cost them a trade down from a 1st to 2nd round pick.
2 years appears to be the tolerable limit of bad salary. No team has the appetite for 4 years.
It cost the Leafs a 1st and a 2nd to get rid of Mrazek on Chicago. That said Dubas trade history is just horrific, so I don’t know that we should be using any of these deals as a barometer for what a competent GM could accomplish.
Campbell needs to rehab his value next season before we can even contemplate trading him away. If he doesn’t, then he’ll get bought out.
Campbell needs to rehab his value next season before we can even contemplate trading him away. If he doesn’t, then he’ll get bought out.
So what do you do if Campbell continues to pitch .888 goaltending next season?
You won’t be able to trade him or buy him out. You won’t have cap to replace him. Keep playing as needed to spell off Skinner regardless of the results like we did last season.
Head into the playoffs with no reliable backup and a tired out Skinner… further down the standings that we would be if we had a replacement level backup.
So what do you do if Campbell continues to pitch .888 goaltending next season?
Depends – in this scenario are we envisioning that he’s also 21-9-4?
I say start him 40 games irrespective. If he’s .888 with a .676 points percentage, why complain? His job is to keep Skinner fresh for a long playoff run.
That’s an interesting idea. I’m not sure when Chicago plans to contend.
Campbell at $4m cap if he rebounds for them could also conceivably be a tradable asset, but I still think they wouldn’t be able to move that contract.
Chicago would still get hit with a fairly ugly buyout cap hit with Campbell for six years if they did that (buy him out after one season). 80% of these numbers still aren’t great. (link doesn’t include buyout date) I’m not sure why they’d want to do that unless we paid an absolute premium.
They might be able to move the last two years of that contract if they retain.
I’m a little surprised there’s no Hitchcock in the HHOF thread, or perhaps I missed it. I bought my first pair of skates from him, must have been at United Cycle around 1979 or 1980.
If Bouchard balks then I’d go back after Karlsson. Bouchard should get you him straight up with Grier retaining the maximum. Trade that should work for both teams.
Last edited 9 months ago by anonymous
ArmchairGM
June 26, 2023 1:35 pm
Not sure why the Dobson contract isn’t used as a comp for Bouchard, at least from what I’ve read. Just above everything lines up between the two – age, size, position, season boxcars, career boxcars, draft position etc.
So a provisional expansionary cap landscape is rosy for other teams, but for the Oilers it’s essentially a death’s knell for graduating prospects (whom you wouldn’t trade for, even for the likes of Brogan Rafferty).
Thanks for this. I suppose if Holland and the guys looked at the right metrics, they would see he is actively taking a job
I think it’s mistakes, the thing that gets me is that I saw plenty of mistakes from less talented vet D. I like the group, best in ages, but let’s be honest, Ceci and Kulak aren’t exactly world beaters
They’re just competent, which for the Oilers was a big upgrade. The team was far better without Barrie. Everything worked better. One weak player can really reduce the 5 man group effectiveness 5v5. There’s a reason other teams weren’t that chuffed about Barrie, even if he’s a passable-ish top 4. I also felt the same about Yams and JP, when off their games, it was playing short handed. The main problem being not an off game, it was the amount of them
He played well in the 2022 playoffs – Not many would look great playing hella tough minutes again the stacked Avs team with a partner that had about 50% mobility…..
Sure, who you play with matters and I would suggest that playing with like likes of Hyman, Kane and Drai does NOT help defending zone entires and I would suggest that playing against the likes of MacKinnon, etc. also does not help.
Yes, I agree but I also thought this last year and, as it turns out, he was playing well nd earning more ice but Holland wanted to upgrade on Kulak at 2LD and Woody wanted Deharnais for the PK and, well, we got to where we got to……
I’m not sure anything has changed in the minds of the coaches and Holland has been pretty clear over the last week, he’s coming in as 7D and need to jump.
OriginalPouzar
June 26, 2023 1:23 pm
Holland:
1) Ryan, 13G, kills penalties, manages game well, good in room (a leader), only “a buck and quarter over the minimum now”.
Ryan was hoping for a bit more but decided he wanted to pitch in and take a bit less than anticipated.
2) Going to meet with agents for both Janmark and Bjugstad in Nashville
3) Lots of conversations with Janmark – he wants to stay and they are close on a deal.
4) Need to figure out exactly how much money “I have to spend”.
5) McLeod, in my opinion, has had two very good playoffs for us. Took less than his QO last year to pitch in. Now he’s got arb rights. We’ll find a solution that works for him and us.
6) Bouch – no arb rights. Have talked to his agents a few times over the last bit. Will talk again.
7) Confidant will get deals done for both McLeod and Bouch that works for both sides – both will be 2 years under under.
8) Going to qualify Philp.
9) Happy with bottom of roster last year (11 guys with 10 goals or more) – Bjugstad was $450K, Kostin at $750K, McLeod at $800K – going to be more expensive.
10 Need Holloway to get some opportunity and help.
11) Bottom six and goalies are done but I want to build a bottom six that can play, kill some penalties and pitch in.
12) Kostin does have options outside the NHL – I’ve talked to his agent a few times – its going to be a challenge. I can’t bring the entire bottom of the roster back. I like Klim. Lots of conversations with his agent, quite a ways a part. We’ll see.
13) Hope is to accrue cap during the season but we’ll see if that becomes reality. Ideally like to be a million-million and a half below but that might not be reality.
A bit disappointed to hear Kostin negotiations not going well. I felt he brought a real missing element to the team last year and was real value. What options outside of the NHL would he have??? Only the KHL and playing in Russia these days can’t be that attractive but who knows! He did seem thrilled to be an Oiler. Hopefully just another agent playing hardball.
I would presume he’s free to sign in any European league (unless some of them have a ban on Russians, which I don’t know to tell you the truth).
With that said, I presume, if he does’t stay in the NHL, he heads back to the KHL – believe is club team was Moscow Dynamo – not sure if they still have his rights or if he’s a “KHL UFA” but I do know Klim is in Moscow right now.
If Klim is smart he signs in NA, outperforms a one year contract, cashes in the following year with the cap bump and annual league roster reshuffle.
Before this season past dude was a straight tweener. If he can slay a one-year show-me, he locks in multiple years at respectable value his next contract (just not w the Oilers). If that is he believes in himself and doesn’t think this year was a fluke.
To Bruins Rights to RFAs Ian Mitchell and Alec Regula.
To Chicago Taylor Hall, rights to UFA Nick Foligno.
No salary retained by Boston, this represents a pure salary dump to clear $6 million off Bruins’ books.
Bag of Pucks
June 26, 2023 12:32 pm
Nurse and Nuge were both underwhelming this past playoffs and Campbell rode the bench. Is there a chance Kenny regrets his NMCs and big FA signing?
These are 3 key pieces of the core that the Dutchman bet his chips on and they were either MIA or in Darnell’s case, leading the league in walkabout wandering.
There is a lot of talk about needing better depth and that’s valid BUT this team will only go as far as their best players take them. In 2022, some of the core were not good enough. And Kenny has essentially rendered these players untradeable. It will be a real shame if that ends up being the key factor that prevents this team from winning it all,
I am not sure why Woody and Manson are getting a pass for the terrible system they put in, after stating the biggest issue pre last season was reducing GA. There was improvement, but how much of that is the progress of the talent? Connor more commmited? The addition of Ekholm?
I didn’t see that they could control tight games and not blow leads that much better. Often it looked like luck to me, as they would get pounded at the end of many games. Certainly in the playoffs the things I though I was seeing reg season end were apparent
Add that Woody was poor in assessing his own roster, deployed Bjug against elites and we saw why he was signing the contracts he did, way over his head against good players. The Drai line got their clocks cleaned at 5v5
Woody regressed to old tropes that haven’t worked. The players regressed to old bad habits (like not shooting high) and they went from scoring heaps to right into the pads or crest. Eakins/Hitch/Tipp would have been keel hauled here for that
The system also brings the worst out in Nurse, who is naturally prone to running around. Many people who know systems and have written or talked about it have said that this system asked him to chase guys around. Bewildered Oilers trying to play man on man. Have they never watched Nurse play? Noticed that he is far better when calm and positional, protecting the house?
The free coaches pass is probably because Woody and Charlie were good developing players in the A, and are miles better than what we had. But the fact remains that there are still significant issues with strategy and deployment. He also asked them to run around, ‘plant seeds’ and so forth. They ended up all banged up, many ineffective, like the Panthers did and also became, Maurice also going full gangsta
The free coaches pass is probably because Woody and Charlie were good developing players in the A, and are miles better than what we had.
Woodcroft and Manson have gotten a fair bit of criticism for the dzone deployment.
Any good will they’re receiving is probably because the Oilers are tied for 2nd in the NHL in points percent since they arrived. And because the Oilers are tied for 3rd in the league (IIRC) in playoff series won.
Yes for sure. The expectation should be higher with what they are working with. San Jose had a lot of great reg season teams Woody was a part of, very talented, top forwards and depth
Why Nurse got a NMC at that price I’ll never understand. It’s EITHER overpay your FAs for a straight contract OR negotiate modest discounts IN RETURN for a NMC. Nurse contract is lunacy. It’s not as bad as the Lucic deal – Nurse is a core contributor in his prime – but still.
I disagree that Holland is done, I think that 1RHD upgrade is an itch he’s going to want to scratch, being that it’s his last kick at the can for a cup. I can see Pesce (rental) or Parayko ($2-3M retained) coming over for Ceci and 1st/Broberg.
What keeps me up at night is the offer sheet possibilities. McLeod could easily be had for $3.5M x 7 and a 2nd in compensation and we probably wouldn’t match. Bouchard could even be had for $6.4M x 7 and a 1st and 3rd in comp and it’d be tough to match at this point in time. Kenny needs money out now as a cushion against this possibility imo.
The contracts EVERYONE is tossing at McLeod are hilarious.
I live me some Clouder but good Gord guys the man has 45 career points… how people have talked themselves into several million a season when every team has at minimum three Ryan mcleods on their roster is hilarious.
It’s going to shock and awe everyone when he comes in right around a million bucks lol.
The one that worries me is Holland. He seems convinced that’s what he has to do. He’s more like an agent sometimes than a GM. There is keeping your word, respect, etc. But at the end of the day a GM in a capped league has to be tough. His talk seems like he is obligated to give what he calls ‘raises’
A terrible way to think about things in pro sports. Being an NHL player really is the exact opposite of a union job, or a career long term thing. It’s sort of disrespectful to working class people to see it that way. In reality these guys are mercenaries with guarantees, and are only as valuable as the last campaign they won against the foe. And get paid the pirate money to do it
It’s not like the Oilers are lottery contestants, they have the best player in the world, a very good team, and are on the doorstep. If certain players don’t like things, which is there perogative not to, there are plenty of options at that end of the roster. If you can see them in your system and elsewhere. Use your leverage man
Yes but he hasn’t established much as others today have said. He’s valuable, but the cap. Can’t mint potential and loyalty. If you want to compete with the best that is
You mentioned that Holland just gives out rises as that’s the normal progression and I provided a very recent, and prudent, example of the opposite.
With that said, I personally believe that McLeod has indeed earned a substantial increase in pay and would also get that in arbitration (he scored well with a lower games played total due to injury) – not to mention he penalty kills, he transports the puck he is solid 2-ways and, of course, he is improving and, if they can get a couple of years at $2MM or below, that will be a value deal.
I think there is almost no chance that McLeod comes in near $1MM – its likely going to be right around $2MM – here his hoping that Holland can get a 2nd year at that price.
Any offer sheet signed with a term longer than 5 years and the total value is divided by 5 to calculate the AAV for purposes of compensation. So at 7 x $6.4 million, the example given, the compensation is based off of 7 / 5 x $6.4 million or $8.96 million which would require 2 firsts, a 2nd and a 3rd.
Yes and now you see why Kenny has his balls in a Vice.
McLeod can’t get himself out of this cause the Oilers can always walk after an arb ruling and he’s left holding his hands as a career 45 point scorer…
Holland on the air today said Ryan was the better player listing off his scoring and utility AND Ryan took a pay cut… he then said he wouldn’t give a Vets job to a young guy who hasn’t earned it. McLeod with 45 career points…
Tea leaves telling McLeod is coming in cheap cheap cheap
No, the Oilers cannot walk after an arb-hearing. The walkaway threshold his over $4MM so that won’t be an option. If it goes to arb, the Oilers are locked in.
Archetype
June 26, 2023 11:33 am
The recent post-season was the first time in a very long time that I genuinely thought the Oilers could win the cup. The loss to the Knights stung and seemed like a missed opportunity. In other years, while I cheered like hell, I knew the team wasn’t a contender but was always hopeful for an unlikely cinderella run.
On paper, this team is close and I agree that no major moves are essential. I’d still like Holland to upgrade, but there’s enough here to wait until the deadline for the most part.
My summer plan would be simple. First, trade Yamamoto and upgrade 2RW. Brown seems like a good bet, given the potential contract structure. He’s not the perfect fit, but could be a huge value contract, which the Oilers need.
Second, I look to move Foegele with little to no money coming back in order to sign the RFA’s – Bouchard, McLeod, and Kostin. I like the player, but it’s a decision between Foegele/Kulak, and I think Kulak is a good partner for Broberg. Desharnais is the 7th.
I would then solely focus on trying to unload Campbell without any long term cap penalties (buyout, retention). This is unlikely, but that would be my goal. I believe in Skinner and having a cheaper goaltending tandem would give the cap flexibility to pursue a strong upgrade to Ceci. If there are no takers on Campbell, I move forward as-is, feeling a bit disappointed, but knowing there’s another opportunity to improve at the trade deadline.
OriginalPouzar
June 26, 2023 11:15 am
Holland will be on with Stauffer at 105 this aft.
defmn
June 26, 2023 10:32 am
So, am I the only one left here who thinks Holland is still dreaming about how to get Karlsson out of San Jose? 😎
Sure sounds like they were pretty heavily engaged last year then went to Ekholm, which might have been a better move, or at least, a less costly move.
It will come down to Karlsson I think. If he gives Grier very limited options Edmonton might be on that list, and it depends how much SJ is willing to retain.
Grier probably hopes to get 2-3 teams interested, and the more they can retain, the more he can set up a bidding war for futures. I don’t think they’ll get much else.
Do the Oilers think Bouchard will develop into a #1 dman?
If they do then you keep Bouchard and let him grow but if they don’t then what can this team afford to play an offensively gifted dman who cannot handle the best offensive players on the contending teams left deep in the playoffs becomes the defining question.
The Oilers window is now and for the next couple of years depending on their own contract concerns. Karlsson is a ‘now’ player.
And, yes, it would take some financial gymnastics.
I think if Karlsson is coming here, Bouchard is going the other way. Send Ceci for Pesci and that’s a top4 d that’s absolutely stacked.
Still I have no idea how they do it without getting rid of Campbell or shedding significant cap some other way. The Sharks aren’t going to retain 50% on their Norris winning d man
If Karlsson is coming here then SJS is absolutely eating 3 million of cap and Jack Campbell. They actually need a goalie. Add Ceci and there is your deal. It’s almost impossible to dump an $11 million contract on contenders who are all at or above the cap. If SJS agrees to eats some cap and take Campbell – a deal is possible.
Holland said they are not adding a $5 million player – never said anything about $11 million 🙂
Rondo
June 26, 2023 10:28 am
Some later picks
Jonathan Castagna
Larry Keenan
Zach Nehring
Arttu Kärki
Angus MacDonell
Brady Cleveland
Axel Landén
@DarrenDreger
As @ArponBasu
suggests below, the Montreal Canadiens have circled back on PLD. Seemed LA was a clear frontrunner, and that may still be the case, but the Habs have re-engaged.
OriginalPouzar
June 26, 2023 9:56 am
What about Ryan McLeod? I don’t see the wisdom in trading him, honestly. He’s very valuable and won’t cost the moon. McLeod signs for $2 million according to rumour (I think it was Gregor) and Edmonton needs him for what was an effective third line last season.
There is some talk/speculation that they might get as many as three years on McLeod.
I think three years would likely be closer to $3MM per but, if they can get 3 years close to $2MM, that is going to be a massive value contract, even 2 years at that AAV is going to be a massive value contract.
OriginalPouzar
June 26, 2023 9:54 am
Trade the young players! I am not convinced the correct move is trading Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg or any other value contract.
I’m more than “not convinced” and am closing in on convinced it would be the wrong move.
Sure, they might be able to do Broberg plus Lavoie and maybe a third piece for Pesce and then move Ceci for a 2nd/3rd round pick but, hot damn, if Pesce isn’t gone after one year and the team has all but no ELC/cheap 2nd contracts providing value. Moves like that crater the continuation of the window and I’m not in to that, personally.
dustrock
June 26, 2023 9:26 am
Teams can make whatever trades they want, they aren’t going to outscore the Oilers. I don’t think we need to make any trades, assuming Ceci is healthy.
Can we tighten up defensively and win out 5v5 against the top 8 teams in the league on a consistent basis?
Vegas got their Cup, now they have some stuff to figure out.
This needs to be this iteration of the Oilers’ “walking by the Islanders locker room and seeing nothing but exhaustion and ice bags” moment.
They beat the Kings who were a tough out, and Vegas was like the Kings except with more talent.
They’ll be fine in the regular season, now it’s just locking down 5v5, stop taking stupid penalties, and get decent goaltending.
I don’t want to rag on Skinner again and again but we need a better playoff performance.
I was a fan of the Thornton Sharks teams and I know people like to rag on McLellan for never taking them to the Finals but there wasn’t a single playoff where the Sharks had the superior goaltending. 2 of their strongest teams ran into Kiprusoff and Quick and were upset.
The Oilers and Vegas are about equal. In Games 5 and 6, one goalie shot lights out. That’s the difference. You could play that series again and Skinner gets hot, goes the other way.
This is true, but the last two teams that beat us don’t rely on luck like we still need. It’s all 5v5 that still hurts. The Avs didn’t even have strong goaltending. To me Hill just made the saves he should and a couple he shouldn’t. I didn’t see a Hasek Roy Fuhr performance at any time throughout
Skinner didn’t lose many if any games that the Oilers won in front of him. Skinner didn’t win many if any games that the Oilers lost in front of him.
That is the type of goaltender I like and the type of goaltender that a team can go places with. I hate goaltenders who lose games that team in front of them has won.
Bohologo
June 26, 2023 9:09 am
I’m just here for the Talking Heads references.
Can we all agree Stop Making Sense remains at the top of its respective heap?
I spoke to a young man possibly 35 years my junior this weekend about the Talking Heads, Bowie and Brian Eno. It was a wonderful conversation and shows the power of great music.
Love that movie- I saw it in the 80s at the Princess. If I remember correctly, you could purchase a student discount card for about $5, and all movies were $2 if you showed your student card. The theatre used to release a paper flyer 3 or 4 times a year that previewed the upcoming releases, you could plan your movie viewing weeks in advance.
Good times
I’m generally on board with the plan(patience, a quiet summer)
My only concern is that if we leave all the areas of weaknesses until the deadline (2RD, 2RW), that could be a whopper of a shopping list if both positions need attention. What if Campbell is poor through 60 games and a replacement is required..?
If we need a goalie at the deadline as well, are we going to be able to acquire all those pieces, and what’s THAT going to cost..?
I wouldn’t mind if Holland surprised us with at least one of the above this summer
I’m not sure it was noted anywhere, but Woodcroft was 7th in Jack Adams voting.
Vegas isn’t worried about these trophies.
I’d really like to keep Fog and McLeod as the core of the 3rd line. If you could add Brown to that it would awesome but Kostin works as well (or we might have enough money for Bjugstad if Kostin goes back to Russia).
On the 4th line- Janmark sounds like he is coming back along with Ryan and Holloway. Get the kid back at center this season in low pressure 4th line situations with 2 vets.
The trades are Yamo and one of Kulak or Ceci. Kulak’s value may never be higher and it would be interesting to see what he coud pull in trade.
Between Kulak and Ceci I think Kulak is the one to move. The Oilers have internal cover for Kulak, they don’t have cover for Ceci. Trading Ceci would leave a hole that could only be filled through trading scarce assets for a replacement who likely carries a higher cap hit.
Of course, ideally they keep both. But since the cap is a thing, it’s possible they won’t have that luxury.
Draisaitl getting less Hart points than Rantanen is absolutely bonkers.
All media apologizers saying you can’t give votes to Draisaitl because he wasn’t the MVP on his own team, but you can to Mikko?
Draisaitl had 23 more points than him, and 15 points more than Pasta.
However, nice to see RNH getting some love as LW, nearly making 2nd all-star team. And 5 votes for Hyman for LW/RW
Hope Leon uses it as motivation for next season.
As the playoffs opened this year none of the Talking Heads whispered Drai’s name for the Conn Smythe…
Instead they gave it to McD and the Past Chucker who peaked out in his rookies season.
It’s ok, really smart hockey people, overlook Malkin every day. Imagine being so smart at your job that you overlook greatness on the daily.
So 19 defensemen got Norris Trophy votes.
https://twitter.com/_willnyr_/status/1673511126208741378?s=20
damn no edm tally either.
edm d not too hot haha
The elephant in the room.
A subtle drop, HH.
During his Hart acceptance speech McDavid says he can’t wait to get back. They have unfinished business.
Hahaha, one PWA voter had McDavid FIFTH on his ballot. That is inexcusable, I hope we discover which writer voted this way so that I can ensure I don’t take any of their material seriously!
The votes are made public every year, if my memory serves.
yep. Its great.
No, disclosure is voluntary. Some choose to share that info, many others don’t.
I was wrong, sorry for this horrible info. I did not think this would be made public and why it was doesn’t make sense to me. Now that writer could be ridiculed/targeted/publicly shamed.
I don’t see anything good coming out of it.
Pastrnak got one first place vote – other that that, it was unanimous for McDavid.
Drai finished 7th.
The voter that had Pasta first had McDavid fifth. Seravelli should have him booted from the PHWA.
1 guy voted McDavid for fifth place
If I was a betting man I would say that no good Oiler hater Stan Fischler. The man is a New York writer who hated Gretz and all things Edmonton and still does.
Hall’s draft mojo is so powerful he even wins the draft lottery for a team he’s going to be traded to.
It is known.
Has there ever been a No 1 overall with a more bizarre career profile?
Selected by Edmonton in 2010, he had the unfortunate luck of going to the Oilers during the DoD, suffering through the tail end of the Kevin Lowe era, along with the incompetence of MacTavish and Chiarelli.
Just when things were looking up with the arrival of McDavid, and the emergence of Draisaitl, he is deemed expendable, and gets traded to New Jersey.
After winning the Hart trophy (in a year when he was outscored by 5 other players, including McDavid), he then misses over half of the next season, resulting in the Devils getting Jack Eichel.
He then gets traded to purgatory/Arizona (for the pick that became Dawson Mercer – who outscored him this year), moves on to Buffalo, and finally gets to the team that could have taken him 2nd overall, if the Oilers had done the smart thing and drafted the RH centre.
This year, Boston has a season for the ages and then suffers a humiliating first round loss to the Panthers.
Today, he was basically traded to Chicago for free, 8 years after being part of a trade that was universally derided, when the Oilers got “just Adam Larsson.”
He’s now on his 6th team (!), one that is about to draft another No 1 overall phenom, 13 years later. He’s played with 8 other No 1 overall picks, and yet he’s only played in 39 playoff games. He’s got the same number of Hart trophies as Leon Draisaitl, but has already been passed in career goals, assists and points, despite playing 4 more seasons.
It’s really hard to put Hall’s career into perspective, honestly.
And Nuge will finish his career as the highest scoring Steve Austin and the only one to score 100 points in a season.
astonishing
The Devils never drafted Eichel and Buffalo could not have drafted Hall 2nd overall because Boston drafted second that year. But you’re right, Seguin would have been the better pick. Overall point taken though on it being a weird career. I’m still pissed he beat Connor for the Hart that year. No way Hall should have finished higher than around 3-4 in the voting.
Oops! Jack Hughes I meant; he did play with Jack Eichel though.
Boston was the team with the second overall pick that I alluded to – imagine how much different Hall’s career would have been if he had landed in Boston … Cup win in his rookie season? Playing with Bergeron and Chara right from the start. Doesn’t have the same ‘maturity’ issues that resulted in Seguin getting traded, and plays his entire career with the B’s. A couple more visits to the Finals. Maybe he puts up the same numbers but how different is the lens through which we view his career now, with all those playoff runs that the B’s have had over the past decade?
The other thing that’s crazy to me in retrospect, was all the talk about how the Oilers traded away a franchise player for a stay-at-home defenseman. While Hall may have won a Hart trophy, it’s debatable whether he was even the best player that season. He will also likely be the only Hart trophy winner to not gain induction to the Hall of Very Good Players. His peak season is less impressive than RNH’s, and most of the other No 1’s that he played with have, or will probably go on to have more impressive careers (except Yakupov). Do we still think of him as a franchise player given the way his career actually unfolded?
Such an interesting career.
.
It’s being reported that Taylor Hall has been traded from Boston to Chicago. If Bedard is chosen 1st overall, Taylor will be playing with the premier centre on his arrival. Who knows more than Hall when it comes to playing alongside the top draft pick. Good luck Taylor, looks like you’ll be waiting a while for your next shot at the cup.
Backland wins the King Clancy.
I was pulling for Nurse – we know he is a monster both on and off the ice – a true stale of the community!
Bernier’s wins the Calder – no surprise!
Skinnner was a fairly distant 2nd (24 first place votes 160 for Beniers):
https://twitter.com/CraigSMorgan/status/1673492251060625408
Not shocked at all. It’s the one award that the hockey Gords and the NHL honchos won’t let the Oilers win … ever. The tradition continues.
Shockingly, Connor McDavid officially wins the Ten Lindsay!
“Edmonton is a historic place to play….. its a privilege to play in front of you every night” – Connor McDavid
We are so fortunate as Oiler fans
Anyone surprise that the loud voices of Oilers “fans” are already bashing Holland for “giving Janmark a second year” and other for even thinking of bringing him back near $1MM.
The same that talk about the risk in the 2nd year of Ryan’s contract (which is solely if he’s on LTIR to finish this coming season which could limit burying options) are digging in a the bad penalty that Janmark took in the playoffs.
To be fair, I don’t love Janmark back at $1MM or over but, damn, the “pre-transaction bashing” is wild stuff.
I like Janmark in the role he was occupying last year. He had a really tough season with respect to being left off the NHL roster due to cap constraints, followed by injuries. I think he’s a good bet to perform well for us for the next two seasons, if he can have more luck staying healthy.
is there a team that would take campbell in trade? IMO no
There’s a bum for every seat.
But the transaction has to work for both sides.
Chicago needs a goaltender and has $31.5 million in cap space.
What would you send them to take Campbell?
While there is some president for trading bad goalie contracts, none to my knowledge have involved 4 years and 20 million cap hit. Most would deem that contract unmovable.
The Sens traded Matt Murray with 1/4 retrained and a 3rd and a 7th to the Leafs. Reportedly, the Leafs already regret the trade. He only had two years on his contract.
The Leafs also found a buyer for 2 years of $3.9m per for Petr Mrazek, which only cost them a trade down from a 1st to 2nd round pick.
2 years appears to be the tolerable limit of bad salary. No team has the appetite for 4 years.
It cost the Leafs a 1st and a 2nd to get rid of Mrazek on Chicago. That said Dubas trade history is just horrific, so I don’t know that we should be using any of these deals as a barometer for what a competent GM could accomplish.
Campbell needs to rehab his value next season before we can even contemplate trading him away. If he doesn’t, then he’ll get bought out.
So what do you do if Campbell continues to pitch .888 goaltending next season?
You won’t be able to trade him or buy him out. You won’t have cap to replace him. Keep playing as needed to spell off Skinner regardless of the results like we did last season.
Head into the playoffs with no reliable backup and a tired out Skinner… further down the standings that we would be if we had a replacement level backup.
Depends – in this scenario are we envisioning that he’s also 21-9-4?
I say start him 40 games irrespective. If he’s .888 with a .676 points percentage, why complain? His job is to keep Skinner fresh for a long playoff run.
If the Oilers were willing to retain a million, the Hawks could test drive him for a season and, if he’s poor, they could buy him out.
The cap consequences would be minimal to both teams under that scenario.
But the Oilers would have to pay them for their trouble.
That’s an interesting idea. I’m not sure when Chicago plans to contend.
Campbell at $4m cap if he rebounds for them could also conceivably be a tradable asset, but I still think they wouldn’t be able to move that contract.
Chicago would still get hit with a fairly ugly buyout cap hit with Campbell for six years if they did that (buy him out after one season). 80% of these numbers still aren’t great. (link doesn’t include buyout date) I’m not sure why they’d want to do that unless we paid an absolute premium.
They might be able to move the last two years of that contract if they retain.
Buying out the final 3 years with Oilers retaining 20% would be a pittance with a rising cap.
Yama. As Canadians we don’t perceive how much US teams value US players for connecting with the fan base
Vegas doesn’t count because they are good, and are a part of the shows on in town for tourists
For sure but it would be very very costly as far as assets out and it’s not remotely realistic.
was gonna say CHI but y’alls are all over it.
I’m a little surprised there’s no Hitchcock in the HHOF thread, or perhaps I missed it. I bought my first pair of skates from him, must have been at United Cycle around 1979 or 1980.
After losing to Dallas for so many years and what a flop he was for us, I’m good
I’m for the Vegas plan.
Any picks or prospects are available if it makes the team better right now, worry about rebuilding in 4 years.
yes, that means Broberg & Holloway.
Vegas, Colorado and Tampa.
Seems to work.
They have almost all of their picks. They are trading prospects as the team is set and the picks become players later when they will need them
I don’t comment often. I really should because there is so much to complement you on.
I always love your Q&As.
Gives me a smile every time.
thanks 😊
Thanks, Freddy!
If Bouchard balks then I’d go back after Karlsson. Bouchard should get you him straight up with Grier retaining the maximum. Trade that should work for both teams.
Not sure why the Dobson contract isn’t used as a comp for Bouchard, at least from what I’ve read. Just above everything lines up between the two – age, size, position, season boxcars, career boxcars, draft position etc.
Any ideas?
Nurse – $9.25 million is a factor.
The Islanders highest paid D is Ryan Pulock at $6.150 million.
If the comp is Dobson, why is Nurse a factor?
Because he is sucking up cap that could be used on Bouchard.
Ah. I see.
So a provisional expansionary cap landscape is rosy for other teams, but for the Oilers it’s essentially a death’s knell for graduating prospects (whom you wouldn’t trade for, even for the likes of Brogan Rafferty).
Got it.
The same reason why Doughty is a factor in the Kings having to trade Durzi and not being able to afford Connor H., etc.
Nurse isn’t a good comp. But if he was… Nurse signed a 2 year, $3.2M AAV contract after his ELC. I think that’s in line with Dobson’s 3 x $4M deal.
So you’re actually strengthening my point. Thanks.
Bouchard isn’t signing a 3-year deal. It would be nuts for him to. Dobson is 3 x $4.0.
So two years, considering the slightly higher cap, for Bouchard comparably, should come in at $3.5-4.0 AAV, and one year at $3.0-3.5 AAV.
Holland on Broberg:
I believe in him.
The hard part is he’s 21 years of age. I look at Bouch and he’s now 23 and has bloomed at that age.
We have good team with good veteran players – its tough for a 21 year old to knock those out of the box.
Got to try and figure out what’s best for Philip and what’s best for the team. I’m not going to put in a kid if the veteran is better.
I’ve texted with him lots – he’s in the gym, he’s working hard.
He’s got to come to training camp and take someone’s job.
Thanks for this. I suppose if Holland and the guys looked at the right metrics, they would see he is actively taking a job
I think it’s mistakes, the thing that gets me is that I saw plenty of mistakes from less talented vet D. I like the group, best in ages, but let’s be honest, Ceci and Kulak aren’t exactly world beaters
They’re just competent, which for the Oilers was a big upgrade. The team was far better without Barrie. Everything worked better. One weak player can really reduce the 5 man group effectiveness 5v5. There’s a reason other teams weren’t that chuffed about Barrie, even if he’s a passable-ish top 4. I also felt the same about Yams and JP, when off their games, it was playing short handed. The main problem being not an off game, it was the amount of them
If it is probable that the kid may be better than the veteran by the trade deadline, then yes, you put him in over Ceci.
If you want to win the Cup, that is the question that needs to get answered. Can Broberg do the job?
We know Ceci isn’t good enough? Two playoffs worth of evidence.
So the critical path forward is based on whether Broberg can or cannot do the job this year.
There is only one way to find out. That is to play him. If he can’t, then the Oilers have to add a right shot version of Ekholm at the deadline.
If Broberg can do the job, it solves a myriad of problems. If he cannot, it clarifies exactly what must be done.
How do we know that Ceci isn’t good enough?
He played well in the 2022 playoffs – Not many would look great playing hella tough minutes again the stacked Avs team with a partner that had about 50% mobility…..
Because his critical metrics are weak. Defending controlled entries which are the most dangerous, retrievals and exits
These are his more personal stats as opposed to GF% etc. Playing with who the top D do pumps tires
Sure, who you play with matters and I would suggest that playing with like likes of Hyman, Kane and Drai does NOT help defending zone entires and I would suggest that playing against the likes of MacKinnon, etc. also does not help.
Broberg should be playing 3rd pairing and if he has the goods as the year goes on he should receive more ice time.
Yes, I agree but I also thought this last year and, as it turns out, he was playing well nd earning more ice but Holland wanted to upgrade on Kulak at 2LD and Woody wanted Deharnais for the PK and, well, we got to where we got to……
I’m not sure anything has changed in the minds of the coaches and Holland has been pretty clear over the last week, he’s coming in as 7D and need to jump.
Holland:
1) Ryan, 13G, kills penalties, manages game well, good in room (a leader), only “a buck and quarter over the minimum now”.
Ryan was hoping for a bit more but decided he wanted to pitch in and take a bit less than anticipated.
2) Going to meet with agents for both Janmark and Bjugstad in Nashville
3) Lots of conversations with Janmark – he wants to stay and they are close on a deal.
4) Need to figure out exactly how much money “I have to spend”.
5) McLeod, in my opinion, has had two very good playoffs for us. Took less than his QO last year to pitch in. Now he’s got arb rights. We’ll find a solution that works for him and us.
6) Bouch – no arb rights. Have talked to his agents a few times over the last bit. Will talk again.
7) Confidant will get deals done for both McLeod and Bouch that works for both sides – both will be 2 years under under.
8) Going to qualify Philp.
9) Happy with bottom of roster last year (11 guys with 10 goals or more) – Bjugstad was $450K, Kostin at $750K, McLeod at $800K – going to be more expensive.
10 Need Holloway to get some opportunity and help.
11) Bottom six and goalies are done but I want to build a bottom six that can play, kill some penalties and pitch in.
12) Kostin does have options outside the NHL – I’ve talked to his agent a few times – its going to be a challenge. I can’t bring the entire bottom of the roster back. I like Klim. Lots of conversations with his agent, quite a ways a part. We’ll see.
13) Hope is to accrue cap during the season but we’ll see if that becomes reality. Ideally like to be a million-million and a half below but that might not be reality.
Again he mentions “no chance we will land a $4M or $5M player”.
A bit disappointed to hear Kostin negotiations not going well. I felt he brought a real missing element to the team last year and was real value. What options outside of the NHL would he have??? Only the KHL and playing in Russia these days can’t be that attractive but who knows! He did seem thrilled to be an Oiler. Hopefully just another agent playing hardball.
I would presume he’s free to sign in any European league (unless some of them have a ban on Russians, which I don’t know to tell you the truth).
With that said, I presume, if he does’t stay in the NHL, he heads back to the KHL – believe is club team was Moscow Dynamo – not sure if they still have his rights or if he’s a “KHL UFA” but I do know Klim is in Moscow right now.
If Klim is smart he signs in NA, outperforms a one year contract, cashes in the following year with the cap bump and annual league roster reshuffle.
Before this season past dude was a straight tweener. If he can slay a one-year show-me, he locks in multiple years at respectable value his next contract (just not w the Oilers). If that is he believes in himself and doesn’t think this year was a fluke.
Or maybe he’d prefer to play back at home…?
Bah. Personal preference 🙂
Great info, thanks!
McLeod will have a 15 year career maybe longer just like Cleary and Chimera. You can’t teach natural speed.
Taylor Hall finally getting to go to a contender who then just dumps him on a lottery team is a sad kind of funny
He has a 16 team no trade clause so he must have, essentially, agreed to this trade.
Wyshynski speculating that Hall would not have updated his no trade list in a while.
There is no way Taylor is happy being that far away from the Cup.
Ha…interesting…Taylor gets to work with yet another rookie phenom named connor…
I wonder if Chicago is the final landing spot for Hall
Chicago could move him down the line with modest retention and get a nice return- lots of summer left
Would be very easy to flip him at the deadline for a pick.
Yea, he is prob going to a playoff team, I hope he doesn’t get injured
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Taylor Hall will be going to CHI
Frank Seravalli
@frank_seravalli
Full trade, per sources:
To Bruins Rights to RFAs Ian Mitchell and Alec Regula.
To Chicago Taylor Hall, rights to UFA Nick Foligno.
No salary retained by Boston, this represents a pure salary dump to clear $6 million off Bruins’ books.
Nurse and Nuge were both underwhelming this past playoffs and Campbell rode the bench. Is there a chance Kenny regrets his NMCs and big FA signing?
These are 3 key pieces of the core that the Dutchman bet his chips on and they were either MIA or in Darnell’s case, leading the league in walkabout wandering.
There is a lot of talk about needing better depth and that’s valid BUT this team will only go as far as their best players take them. In 2022, some of the core were not good enough. And Kenny has essentially rendered these players untradeable. It will be a real shame if that ends up being the key factor that prevents this team from winning it all,
I am not sure why Woody and Manson are getting a pass for the terrible system they put in, after stating the biggest issue pre last season was reducing GA. There was improvement, but how much of that is the progress of the talent? Connor more commmited? The addition of Ekholm?
I didn’t see that they could control tight games and not blow leads that much better. Often it looked like luck to me, as they would get pounded at the end of many games. Certainly in the playoffs the things I though I was seeing reg season end were apparent
Add that Woody was poor in assessing his own roster, deployed Bjug against elites and we saw why he was signing the contracts he did, way over his head against good players. The Drai line got their clocks cleaned at 5v5
Woody regressed to old tropes that haven’t worked. The players regressed to old bad habits (like not shooting high) and they went from scoring heaps to right into the pads or crest. Eakins/Hitch/Tipp would have been keel hauled here for that
The system also brings the worst out in Nurse, who is naturally prone to running around. Many people who know systems and have written or talked about it have said that this system asked him to chase guys around. Bewildered Oilers trying to play man on man. Have they never watched Nurse play? Noticed that he is far better when calm and positional, protecting the house?
The free coaches pass is probably because Woody and Charlie were good developing players in the A, and are miles better than what we had. But the fact remains that there are still significant issues with strategy and deployment. He also asked them to run around, ‘plant seeds’ and so forth. They ended up all banged up, many ineffective, like the Panthers did and also became, Maurice also going full gangsta
Woody and Manson’s winning % has been more than decent since they arrived at The Show.
They are. Why can’t they beat the best teams in the playoffs 5v5 with the Duo committed and enough depth and goaltending?
Woodcroft and Manson have gotten a fair bit of criticism for the dzone deployment.
Any good will they’re receiving is probably because the Oilers are tied for 2nd in the NHL in points percent since they arrived. And because the Oilers are tied for 3rd in the league (IIRC) in playoff series won.
Yes for sure. The expectation should be higher with what they are working with. San Jose had a lot of great reg season teams Woody was a part of, very talented, top forwards and depth
I would suggest that a good portion of that “walkabout wandering” was per team structure.
Why Nurse got a NMC at that price I’ll never understand. It’s EITHER overpay your FAs for a straight contract OR negotiate modest discounts IN RETURN for a NMC. Nurse contract is lunacy. It’s not as bad as the Lucic deal – Nurse is a core contributor in his prime – but still.
lunacy.
I can’t think of a last time a big money/term contract was signed without such a clause. Huburdea just last season as an example.
Nicklas Backstrom, the 31st highest cap hit, is the first player that doesn’t have trade protection and the vast majority above him have full NMCs.
Dammit OP! 🙂
I disagree that Holland is done, I think that 1RHD upgrade is an itch he’s going to want to scratch, being that it’s his last kick at the can for a cup. I can see Pesce (rental) or Parayko ($2-3M retained) coming over for Ceci and 1st/Broberg.
What keeps me up at night is the offer sheet possibilities. McLeod could easily be had for $3.5M x 7 and a 2nd in compensation and we probably wouldn’t match. Bouchard could even be had for $6.4M x 7 and a 1st and 3rd in comp and it’d be tough to match at this point in time. Kenny needs money out now as a cushion against this possibility imo.
Bouchard I could see, but who the hell is giving McLeod that contract? That’s more millions of dollars than he has career goals.
The contracts EVERYONE is tossing at McLeod are hilarious.
I live me some Clouder but good Gord guys the man has 45 career points… how people have talked themselves into several million a season when every team has at minimum three Ryan mcleods on their roster is hilarious.
It’s going to shock and awe everyone when he comes in right around a million bucks lol.
The one that worries me is Holland. He seems convinced that’s what he has to do. He’s more like an agent sometimes than a GM. There is keeping your word, respect, etc. But at the end of the day a GM in a capped league has to be tough. His talk seems like he is obligated to give what he calls ‘raises’
A terrible way to think about things in pro sports. Being an NHL player really is the exact opposite of a union job, or a career long term thing. It’s sort of disrespectful to working class people to see it that way. In reality these guys are mercenaries with guarantees, and are only as valuable as the last campaign they won against the foe. And get paid the pirate money to do it
It’s not like the Oilers are lottery contestants, they have the best player in the world, a very good team, and are on the doorstep. If certain players don’t like things, which is there perogative not to, there are plenty of options at that end of the roster. If you can see them in your system and elsewhere. Use your leverage man
McLeod took a pay-cut for this past season, not just a pay cut from his previous comp but also less than his qualifying offer.
Yes but he hasn’t established much as others today have said. He’s valuable, but the cap. Can’t mint potential and loyalty. If you want to compete with the best that is
You mentioned that Holland just gives out rises as that’s the normal progression and I provided a very recent, and prudent, example of the opposite.
With that said, I personally believe that McLeod has indeed earned a substantial increase in pay and would also get that in arbitration (he scored well with a lower games played total due to injury) – not to mention he penalty kills, he transports the puck he is solid 2-ways and, of course, he is improving and, if they can get a couple of years at $2MM or below, that will be a value deal.
I think there is almost no chance that McLeod comes in near $1MM – its likely going to be right around $2MM – here his hoping that Holland can get a 2nd year at that price.
CHI
$3.5M x 7 requires a 1st + 3rd compensation. I’d take the picks.
$6.4M x 7 requires a 1st + 1st + 2nd + 3rd compensation. I’d match.
Any offer sheet under &6,435,186 is a 1st and a 3rd.
https://www.capfriendly.com/offer-sheet-calculator
17 teams currently have both.
Any offer sheet signed with a term longer than 5 years and the total value is divided by 5 to calculate the AAV for purposes of compensation. So at 7 x $6.4 million, the example given, the compensation is based off of 7 / 5 x $6.4 million or $8.96 million which would require 2 firsts, a 2nd and a 3rd.
https://www.capfriendly.com/offer-sheet-calculator
My post has the correct compensation.
Ah ok then not CHI. I was thinking just to get to the cap floor but I didn’t think a first was on the table at that value.
If McLeod files for arbitration, he can’t sign an offers sheet.
Yes and now you see why Kenny has his balls in a Vice.
McLeod can’t get himself out of this cause the Oilers can always walk after an arb ruling and he’s left holding his hands as a career 45 point scorer…
Holland on the air today said Ryan was the better player listing off his scoring and utility AND Ryan took a pay cut… he then said he wouldn’t give a Vets job to a young guy who hasn’t earned it. McLeod with 45 career points…
Tea leaves telling McLeod is coming in cheap cheap cheap
No, the Oilers cannot walk after an arb-hearing. The walkaway threshold his over $4MM so that won’t be an option. If it goes to arb, the Oilers are locked in.
The recent post-season was the first time in a very long time that I genuinely thought the Oilers could win the cup. The loss to the Knights stung and seemed like a missed opportunity. In other years, while I cheered like hell, I knew the team wasn’t a contender but was always hopeful for an unlikely cinderella run.
On paper, this team is close and I agree that no major moves are essential. I’d still like Holland to upgrade, but there’s enough here to wait until the deadline for the most part.
My summer plan would be simple. First, trade Yamamoto and upgrade 2RW. Brown seems like a good bet, given the potential contract structure. He’s not the perfect fit, but could be a huge value contract, which the Oilers need.
Second, I look to move Foegele with little to no money coming back in order to sign the RFA’s – Bouchard, McLeod, and Kostin. I like the player, but it’s a decision between Foegele/Kulak, and I think Kulak is a good partner for Broberg. Desharnais is the 7th.
I would then solely focus on trying to unload Campbell without any long term cap penalties (buyout, retention). This is unlikely, but that would be my goal. I believe in Skinner and having a cheaper goaltending tandem would give the cap flexibility to pursue a strong upgrade to Ceci. If there are no takers on Campbell, I move forward as-is, feeling a bit disappointed, but knowing there’s another opportunity to improve at the trade deadline.
Holland will be on with Stauffer at 105 this aft.
So, am I the only one left here who thinks Holland is still dreaming about how to get Karlsson out of San Jose? 😎
There are others that share that view I think.
Personally, I don’t think there is a shred of reasonable possibility.
With that said, I didn’t think there was earlier this year either, even prior to the Ekholm acquisition. It never made sense to me.
Sure sounds like they were pretty heavily engaged last year then went to Ekholm, which might have been a better move, or at least, a less costly move.
It will come down to Karlsson I think. If he gives Grier very limited options Edmonton might be on that list, and it depends how much SJ is willing to retain.
Grier probably hopes to get 2-3 teams interested, and the more they can retain, the more he can set up a bidding war for futures. I don’t think they’ll get much else.
Here is my question.
Do the Oilers think Bouchard will develop into a #1 dman?
If they do then you keep Bouchard and let him grow but if they don’t then what can this team afford to play an offensively gifted dman who cannot handle the best offensive players on the contending teams left deep in the playoffs becomes the defining question.
The Oilers window is now and for the next couple of years depending on their own contract concerns. Karlsson is a ‘now’ player.
And, yes, it would take some financial gymnastics.
I think if Karlsson is coming here, Bouchard is going the other way. Send Ceci for Pesci and that’s a top4 d that’s absolutely stacked.
Still I have no idea how they do it without getting rid of Campbell or shedding significant cap some other way. The Sharks aren’t going to retain 50% on their Norris winning d man
If Karlsson is coming here then SJS is absolutely eating 3 million of cap and Jack Campbell. They actually need a goalie. Add Ceci and there is your deal. It’s almost impossible to dump an $11 million contract on contenders who are all at or above the cap. If SJS agrees to eats some cap and take Campbell – a deal is possible.
Holland said they are not adding a $5 million player – never said anything about $11 million 🙂
Some later picks
Jonathan Castagna
Larry Keenan
Zach Nehring
Arttu Kärki
Angus MacDonell
Brady Cleveland
Axel Landén
Kale Carlsson
Cam Squires
@DarrenDreger
As @ArponBasu
suggests below, the Montreal Canadiens have circled back on PLD. Seemed LA was a clear frontrunner, and that may still be the case, but the Habs have re-engaged.
There is some talk/speculation that they might get as many as three years on McLeod.
I think three years would likely be closer to $3MM per but, if they can get 3 years close to $2MM, that is going to be a massive value contract, even 2 years at that AAV is going to be a massive value contract.
I’m more than “not convinced” and am closing in on convinced it would be the wrong move.
Sure, they might be able to do Broberg plus Lavoie and maybe a third piece for Pesce and then move Ceci for a 2nd/3rd round pick but, hot damn, if Pesce isn’t gone after one year and the team has all but no ELC/cheap 2nd contracts providing value. Moves like that crater the continuation of the window and I’m not in to that, personally.
Teams can make whatever trades they want, they aren’t going to outscore the Oilers. I don’t think we need to make any trades, assuming Ceci is healthy.
Can we tighten up defensively and win out 5v5 against the top 8 teams in the league on a consistent basis?
Vegas got their Cup, now they have some stuff to figure out.
This needs to be this iteration of the Oilers’ “walking by the Islanders locker room and seeing nothing but exhaustion and ice bags” moment.
They beat the Kings who were a tough out, and Vegas was like the Kings except with more talent.
They’ll be fine in the regular season, now it’s just locking down 5v5, stop taking stupid penalties, and get decent goaltending.
I don’t want to rag on Skinner again and again but we need a better playoff performance.
I was a fan of the Thornton Sharks teams and I know people like to rag on McLellan for never taking them to the Finals but there wasn’t a single playoff where the Sharks had the superior goaltending. 2 of their strongest teams ran into Kiprusoff and Quick and were upset.
Don’t want the same thing to happen here.
The Oilers and Vegas are about equal. In Games 5 and 6, one goalie shot lights out. That’s the difference. You could play that series again and Skinner gets hot, goes the other way.
Excellent news because they were also $8 million over the cap in that scenario.
This is true, but the last two teams that beat us don’t rely on luck like we still need. It’s all 5v5 that still hurts. The Avs didn’t even have strong goaltending. To me Hill just made the saves he should and a couple he shouldn’t. I didn’t see a Hasek Roy Fuhr performance at any time throughout
I think people will remember that series for a long time, especially if 29 and 97 set sail. I keep thinking about the 1972 NY Rangers.
Agreed. I will add, it is hard to win when one of your top centres (Drai) gets buried 5v5.
And where did Calgary get Kiprusoff from?
Skinner didn’t lose many if any games that the Oilers won in front of him. Skinner didn’t win many if any games that the Oilers lost in front of him.
That is the type of goaltender I like and the type of goaltender that a team can go places with. I hate goaltenders who lose games that team in front of them has won.
I’m just here for the Talking Heads references.
Can we all agree Stop Making Sense remains at the top of its respective heap?
I spoke to a young man possibly 35 years my junior this weekend about the Talking Heads, Bowie and Brian Eno. It was a wonderful conversation and shows the power of great music.
Love that movie- I saw it in the 80s at the Princess. If I remember correctly, you could purchase a student discount card for about $5, and all movies were $2 if you showed your student card. The theatre used to release a paper flyer 3 or 4 times a year that previewed the upcoming releases, you could plan your movie viewing weeks in advance.
Good times
I’m generally on board with the plan(patience, a quiet summer)
My only concern is that if we leave all the areas of weaknesses until the deadline (2RD, 2RW), that could be a whopper of a shopping list if both positions need attention. What if Campbell is poor through 60 games and a replacement is required..?
If we need a goalie at the deadline as well, are we going to be able to acquire all those pieces, and what’s THAT going to cost..?
I wouldn’t mind if Holland surprised us with at least one of the above this summer