Lowetide Top 125 (Final) for the 2022 draft

by Lowetide
Stuart Skinner photo by Mark Williams

The Edmonton Oilers have attended 43 drafts, and chosen three goaltenders who turned into quality or better: Andy Moog (1980), Grant Fuhr (1981) and Devan Dubnyk (2004). The organization liked Stuart Skinner in 2017, traded up for him, and now have a big goaltender (6.04, 206) pushing for an NHL career. He looks good.

THE ATHLETIC!

  • New Lowetide: Oilers pro scouts have to get it right in free agency this summer
  • Lowetide: What will Edmonton Oilers do in first round of 2022 NHL Draft?
  • Lowetide: Can the ‘Connor McDavid will ask Oilers to be traded?’ group please sit down?
  • DNB: Oilers end-of-season takeaways
  • Lowetide: Young Oilers players poised for bigger roles after playoff run
  • DNB: What Oilers goalie Mike Smith’s unclear future could mean for offseason plans
  • DNB: Oilers’ season ends, and critical roster decisions will define what comes next
  • Lowetide: In defence of Edmonton Oilers defenceman Darnell Nurse
  • Lowetide: Oilers’ Warren Foegele may be victim of cap crunch this summer
  • Lowetide: WHL’s 2022 defence crop attractive target for Oilers at NHL Draft
  • DNB and Dan Robson: Connor McDavid is the best skater NHL’s skating greats have ever seen
  • Lowetide: Why Jordan Dumais could be NHL Draft steal for Edmonton Oilers

Goaltenders and the 2022 draft

  1. Topias Leinonen, Finn Jr. He’s 6.05, 216, great numbers and consistency.
  2. Hugo Hävelid, Swe U20. Small, brilliant goalie.
  3. Sergei Murashov, Rus Jr. Brilliant goalie, undersized.
  4. Tyler Brennan, WHL. He’s a big goalie, inconsistent, great glove. Slow start hurt numbers. .902
  5. Jan Spunar, Czech. Gigantic goalie with great numbers.
  6. Ivan Zhigalov, QMJHL. Hybrid goalie, has size, high risk/reward based on numbers.
  7. Thomas Milic, WHL. Average size, great numbers at U18 WJC and WHL playoffs.
  8. Sergei Ivanov, MHL. Undersized but quick and effective.
  9. Braden Holt, WHL. Undersized goalie with good numbers.

There’s some great talent here, not sure what the Oilers will do at this position. The top five goaltenders would be worth a long look based on their resumes and numbers.

LOWETIDE 2021 LIST

  1. G Sebastian Cossa, Edmonton Oil Kings. Giant had a .941 save percentage this season.
  2. G Jesper Wallstedt, Lulea. 6.03, 214, 22 games and a .908 SP in the SHL.
  3. G Alekesi Kolosov, Minsk. KHL goalie, .911 SP and still a teenager.
  4. G Benjamin Gaudreau, Sarnia Sting. Impressive U18 (.919 SP) has him here.
  5. G Brett Brochu, London Knights. Under radar goalie delivered a .919 SP as a rookie.
  6. G Patrik Hamrla, HC Energie Karlovy Vary. Dominated Czech junior.
  7. G Carl Lindbom, Djurgarden. Top draw U18s has him here.

I did not have Tristan Lennox (No. 93 NY Islanders), Jakub Malek (No. 100 New Jersey), Talyn Boyko (No. 112 NY Rangers), Philip Svedback (No. 117 Boston) and Rasmus Korhonen (No. 122, Arizona) among the top 125. That isn’t unusual, goaltenders are tough to grade and it does come down to individual teams sometimes. Some are good, some not so good. There were six goalies chosen after 125.

THE LOWETIDE 125, FOR 2022

  1. RC Shane Wright (OHL). Peter Harling (Dobber) compares to Patrice Bergeron.
  2. RC Matt Savoie (WHL). Scott Wheeler: Inside the offensive zone, he’s lethal.
  3. RD Simon Nemec (Slovak). A complete skill set, impressive WHC’s.
  4. LC Logan Cooley (USHL). Incredible skater, skilled and elusive. Dual threat.
  5. RW Joakim Kemell (Liiga). High skill, great shot, 15 goals in Liiga.
  6. RD David Jiricek (Czech). Solid two-way D, knee problem interrupted season.
  7. LW Juraj Slafkovsky (Liiga). Big skill winger who spiked during the season.
  8. LD Denton Mateychuk (WHL). Elite skater, complete range, impressive passer.
  9. RW Jonathan Lekkerimaki (Sweden). Skill winger with exceptional shot.
  10. LW Cutter Gauthier (USHL). Big W with outstanding shot and sixth sense for goals.
  11. LC Markus Kasper (Sweden). Range of skills, safe pick, can help on offense.
  12. RW Jagger Firkus (WHL). Quick, skilled, difficult to contain.
  13. RW Frank Nazar (USHL). Fast train, intelligent, creative, impressive offense.
  14. LD Pavel Mintyukov (OHL). Top-end skater, puck mover. Some chaos defensively.
  15. LW Isaac Howard (USHL). Fast release, creative, emerging.
  16. LD Kevin Korchinski (WHL). Two-way defender, mobile and smart.
  17. RW Danila Yurov (KHL). Great skater, high skill, aggressive, complete.
  18. LW Liam Ohgren (Sweden). Goal scorer had a strong season.
  19. RW Jordan Dumais (QMJHL). Undersized skill winger impressive playmaker.
  20. LW Brad Lambert (Liiga). Outstanding speed, range of skills, where are the goals?
  21. RC Conor Geekie (WHL). Best PF at the top end of the draft.
  22. LC David Goyette (OHL). Speedy center with skill and two-way ability.
  23. LW Jiri Kulich, (Czech). Skill winger who posted strong numbers this year.
  24. LC Servac Petrovsky (OHL). Aug. 2004, slick, skilled, does everything at high speed.
  25. LW Gleb Trikozov (MHL). Smart two-way winger with a great shot.
  26. RW Jimmy Snuggerud (USHL). Range of skills, scores from a variety of areas.
  27. LW Adam Sykora (Slovak). Impressive skill, one of the youngest players in the draft.
  28. LW Luca DelBelBelluz (OHL). Size, two-way ability, and an offensive spike.
  29. RW Filip Maser (Slovak). Speed demon, undersized and dynamic.
  30. LD Lian Bichsel (Sweden). Big, mobile defenseman with two-way skills.
  31. LC Rutger McGroarty (USHL). Skill C, shooter, great passer.
  32. LW Reid Schaefer (WHL). Impressive scoring winger spiked late.
  33. LW Ivan Miroshnichenko (VHL). Top end speed and skill. Much higher in normal year.
  34. LC Julian Lutz (DEL). High end skill, injured much of the season.
  35. RD Ty Nelson (OHL). Impressive offensive defensman.
  36. G Topias Leinonen, (Finn U20). He’s 6.05, 216, great numbers and consistency.
  37. LD Owen Pickering (WHL). Huge two-way defenseman.
  38. RD Elias Salomonsson (SHL). Effective two-way D.
  39. LC Daniil Zhilkin (OHL). Good wheels, two-way C. Safe pick.
  40. LD Lane Hutson (USHL). Small, dynamic offensive defenseman.
  41. RC Nathan Gaucher (QMJHL). Two-way center with size.
  42. LW Adam Ingram (USHL). Big winger with skill, quality passer.
  43. LW Mike Milne (WHL). Gritty winger with skill.
  44. RD Seamus Casey (USHL). Mobile offensive defenseman.
  45. G Hugo Hävelid, (Swe U20). Small, brilliant goalie.
  46. LW Jani Nyman (Liiga). Big winger can score goals.
  47. LC Noah Ostlund (Swe U20). Two-way C, complete game.
  48. LC Theo Rochette (QMJHL). Talented and creative.
  49. LC Jack Hughes (NCAA). Rugged two-way C.
  50. RD Tristan Luneau (QMJHL). Big two-way defenseman has offensive potential.
  51. LD Mats Lindgren (WHL). Flashy two-way defender has some range.
  52. RC Owen Beck (OHL). Speed demon with skill.
  53. RC Ben King (WHL). Overager spiked this year.
  54. RD Ryan Chesley (USHL). Has the complete range, lacks top end offense.
  55. RC Tucker Robertson (OHL). Is strong and skilled, could be a steal.
  56. RD Noah Warren (QMJHL). Effective shutdown defenseman.
  57. LC Cedrick Guindon (OHL). Undersized skill center.
  58. RD Jacob Guévin (USHL). Offensive defenseman, fine skater.
  59. LW James Stefan (WHL). Impressive passing and scoring winger.
  60. RD Otto Salin (Liiga). Emerging offensive defenseman.
  61. LW Alexander Perevalov (MHL). Dynamic skill winger.
  62. G Sergei Murashov (Rus Jr). Brilliant goalie, undersized.
  63. LC Filip Bystedt (SHL). Big (6.04, 205) C with passing skill.
  64. RD David Spacek (QMJHL). Strong underlying numbers.
  65. LC Aleksanteri Kaskimäki (Finn U20). Strong offensive forward, strong skater.
  66. RC Nicholas Moldenhauer (USHL). Range of skills , a little shy offensively.
  67. LW Alexander Suzdalev (Swe U20). Outstanding stickhandler, can make plays.
  68. RD Maveric Lamoureux (QMJHL). He’s 6.07, tough, wingspan of a condor, raw.
  69. RW Cameron Lund (USHL). Big winger with plus skill.
  70. LW Viktor Neuchev (MHL). Fantastic shot.
  71. RC Pano Fimis (OHL). Responsible center with skill.
  72. LW Jeremy Wilmer (USHL). Pure skill, elusive with the puck on his stick.
  73. LD Graham Sward (WHL). Intelligent two-way defenseman.
  74. G Tyler Brennan (WHL). He’s a big goalie, inconsistent, great glove.
  75. LC Topi Rönni (Liiga). Good size and speed, solid offensively.
  76. LW Brandon Lisowsky (WHL). Undersized gol scorer. Good numbers.
  77. LC Markus Vidicek (QMJHL). Slick skills and good numbers.
  78. RC Ryan Francis (QMJHL). Unsigned by Flames. Skill, plug-and-play AHL.
  79. G Jan Spunar (Czech). Gigantic goalie with great numbers.
  80. LW Jordan Gustafsson (WHL). Speedy throwback forward.
  81. LC Matthew Ward (WHL). Magic on the power play
  82. LW Dylan James (USHL). Responsible two-way winger.
  83. LC Justin Cote (QMJHL). Under the radar, but he has skill. July 2004.
  84. RW Ben Hemmerling (WHL). Impressive playmaker under the radar.
  85. LC Fraser Minten (WHL). Two-way C with some skill.
  86. LD Artyom Duda (MHL). Puck mover is a great passer.
  87. RW Vinzenz Rohrer (OHL). Small F with great utility. Oilers might like him.
  88. LC Rieger Lorenz (AJHL). Big center with some passing skill.
  89. G Ivan Zhigalov (QMJHL). Hybrid goalie, has size, high risk/reward.
  90. LW Kirill Dolzhenkov (MHL). Massive winger can score.
  91. RW Matthew Seminoff (WHL). Skill winger with utility.
  92. LD Tomas Hamara (Liiga). Resposible defender.
  93. LW Matyas Sapovaliv (OHL). Scoring winger with great passing ability.
  94. RW Brayden Schuurman (WHL). Small winger, can score goals.
  95. LW Arvid Sundin (SHL). Underzied burner has breathtaking shifts.
  96. LW Antonin Verreault (QMJHL). Playmaking winger. Great passer.
  97. LW Quinn Finley (USHL). Speedy winger, skilled but small.
  98. LD Jake Furlong (QMJHL). Two-way defenseman who can make plays.
  99. LW Eric Alarie (WHL). Big skill winger.
  100. LD Samuel Mayer (OHL). Overage, brings solid play in all areas.
  101. LD Simon Forsmark (SHL). Responsible D with size.
  102. RC Matthew Poitras (OHL). Solid two-way pivot.
  103. RD Sam Rinzel (USHL). Big, strong, late breaker. Lots of buzz.
  104. LD Angus Booth (QMJHL). Defensive blue, makes smart plays.
  105. LW Zam Plante (USHS). Very small skill winger.
  106. LD Calle Odelius (Swe U20). Two-way defender.
  107. RW Jack Devine (NCAA). Elusive playmaking forward.
  108. LC Gustav Karlsson (Swe U20). Pure scorer.
  109. G Thomas Milic (WHL). Average size, great numbers at U18 WJC and WHL playoffs.
  110. LC Bryce Mcconnell-Barker (OHL). Lots of talent, numbers lagging.
  111. RD Alex Cotton (WHL). Another re-entry, offensive defenseman.
  112. RW Nikita Grebyonkin (MHL). Skill and size plus some speed.
  113. LW Alexaner Suvorov (KHL). Overager has skill but needs an extra gear.
  114. LW Josh Filmon (WHL). Tall, lean forward posted good numbers.
  115. RD Christian Kyrou (OHL). Impressive numbers, has a chance.
  116. RW Cruz Lucius (USHL). Skilled but not a big sample size.
  117. RW Patrick Guay, QMJHL. Quick accurate shooter.
  118. LW Nikita Buruyanov (MHL). Small skill winger.
  119. LD Tyson Jugnauth (BCHL). Speedy puck mover is great passer.
  120. LW Alex Bump (USHL). Scoring winger.
  121. G Sergei Ivanov (MHL). Undersized but quick and effective.
  122. LD David Gucciardi (NCAA). Two-way D, plus shot.
  123. LC Connor Hvidston (WHL). Youngest player in the draft and he can play.
  124. RD Jack Sparkes (OJHL). He’s a 6.08 defenseman. He’ll get drafted.
  125. LD Dave Ma (NCAA). Tremendous skater and very creative.

My list is math based, relies on multiple resources and some in the industry who guide me through the process. Any similarity between my list and all other lists is coincidence. My list doesn’t scout the players, it reads the tea leaves math gives us. I didn’t specifically pay attention to anyone’s list during the process, and one of the reasons I’m publishing today is Red Line Report will be ordered by me this week and my tradition is to have the list complete before I read the annual ranking from them.

Adam Sherren was especially helpful with the QMJHL players this season, I didn’t sample many other sites as I have in the past because the Oilers run went so deep. I do have a few observations.

If I were advising Ken Holland and Tyler Wright, the recommendation would be dealing No. 29 for multiple selections ala Craig MacTavish with No. 37 in 2013. MacT received No. 83 (Bogdan Yakimov), No. 88 (Anton Slepyshev), No. 94 (Jackson Houck), No. 96 (Kyle Platzer) and No. 113 (Aidan Muir).

Put another way, this is what math is telling us: Luca Del Bel Belluz (NHLE: 29.6) is my No. 28 ranked player for the 2022 draft. Edmonton might be able to get him with its first-round selection. At No. 55, I have Tucker Robertson (NHLE: 31.5) and he is an overager but just five months older. It’s a deep draft, and the Oilers may want to increase chances of getting an NHL player. They may also want to trade the pick. Those two subjects are discussed in my piece for The Athletic (link above) this morning.

THE WEEK AHEAD

Things are going to go quickly for the Oilers over the next 24 days leading up to the draft. We’ve already seen Mikko Koskinen’s signing in Europe become official, and on the weekend it was revealed Ken Holland has asked for an indication from Mike Smith and Duncan Keith about their intentions to return next year.

Still to come, the signing of coaches Jay Woodcroft and Dave Manson; possible re-signing of unrestricted free agents, trades that send out cap and address needs, and a clear vision about the goaltending situation, the defense and scoring winger. Much was accomplished last year that impacts the long term, from free-agent signings (Zach Hyman, Cody Ceci) and internal development (Evan Bouchard and Ryan McLeod grabbing important jobs).

Stuart Skinner, Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway may be the next men up for this roster. Who will come from outside the organization? Stay tuned. News could drop any day now, including this one.

LOWETIDE AND JAMIESON

TSN 1260, 10-2 today, we have a lot to talk about, including the Elks disaster on the left coast, the Oilers moves to come, and more. Guests include Darren Dreger, TSN Insider, plus Oil Kings, Elks guests and more. 10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Hold on to your ass, this is going to be wild!

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jp

I thought this was a helpful guide to this summer’s free agents (from Dom, last week):
https://theathletic.com/3355725/2022/06/09/nhl-top-50-ufa-2022/

Looking at just the goalies that were included, and their ‘most likely’ contract projections from Evolving Hockey (which is in the article):

Kuemper $6.3M x 6 years
Campbell $5.7M x 6 years
Husso $5M x 4 years
MAF $4.7M x 2 years
DeSmith $2.7M x 2 years

Lots of other quality wingers out there if Kane doesn’t re-sign as well.

KassHat

Connor is twitter famous for helping a stranger find an uber.

OriginalPouzar

at some time in the past – its an old video (look at Nurse, an his “bare arms” – Nurse now has many arm tattoos).

AsiaOil

People used to be pretty content with a 100+ point season and a trip to the final four. Players seemed fine with it given serious injuries to 2/3 top players. They learned a lot this year and are a legit contender next season. So all the armchair GM bile about Holland is well over the top IMHO. Need to tweek the old saying “why can’t we have nice things” into “why can we enjoy nice things”.

Now for the goalies – still watch them – and my track record is not bad. Skinner is the best young guy we’ve had since Dubnyk who I called as a solid 1A even in the WHL. Yeah the good old days of JDD versus Dubnyk debates. Shows how bad our goalie coaching/scouting has been over the years. There is a reason why NYR/MTL are always solid in net.

Oilers coaching has lived on a razor’s edge for years and never felt it had the luxury of properly developing a young goaler. Perhaps this has finally changed but many fans in EDM still create a toxic environment for goaltenders. There is a reason why guys don’t want to sign here (aside from crusty old vets like Smith and Rolo who possessed a well developed FU attitude). So it’s time to run Skinner and people need to give him some rope which he will need in his first year.

As for the UFA or trades. A big no to Gibson even if the price was only Barrie and Kass. He has been very mediocre since signing his big career contract and it doesn’t look like he has much fire in the belly IMHO. The last 3 years associated with his big new contract is a perfectly good sample and it’s not pretty. Maybe his performance changes in EDM, but I would not be risking it, and it’s a big damn risk. Valarmov/Skinner is a much better idea with only a 1 year risk involved. Especially if the price is Barrie. Not as keen on Allen or Talbot who are very good backups at this stage or 1B guys at best. Not the best option for Skinner’s mentor this next season.

meanashell11

Hey, welcome back! And agree!

Victoria Oil

Congrats to the WHL Champion Oil Kings. Off to the Memorial Cup!

Victoria Oil

Despite losing 7-0 a few days ago, Canada’s U18 women’s team (including Jerome Iginla’s daughter) beats the U.S. 3-2 to win the World Championship.

Tarkus

At least someone in the Iginla family can deign to appear at a World Championship!

Randle McMurphy

In case you wanted to know.

Switzerland is beautiful.

The Swiss league only plays a 50 game season. YAY! says Mikko.

The country is so small that you sleep in you own bed every night even for road games. YAY! says Mikko

The salary range in the Swiss league is between $900K and $600K. YAY!..says..Mi…..wait..WHAT?!?

You’d have to be a millionaire to play in the Swiss league!…Says Mikko with a wry smile.

Harpers Hair

Players also get free accommodation and luxury cars while being exempt from taxation.

Randle McMurphy

typo edit/correction between $90K and $600K

godot10

Unless Hellebuyck falls from the sky, Jake Allen is the goaltender to pair with Skinner.

OriginalPouzar

By Jake Allen, did you mean Semyon Varlamov (who, now in his last year prior to UFA, may be amendable to Edmonton as the true starter on a good team – future money).

jp

I don’t agree Allen is THE guy. But you’re right he definitely should be part of any conversation that includes Reimer, Varlamov, Talbot, et al.

Brogan Rafferty's Uncle Steve

What kind of offer would it take for the Jets to consider trading Hellebuyck?

1st + Bourg + Barrie + Sammy?

FabioRoberto

I wouldn’t make that trade. Allen works and is a whole lot cheaper. Fix the defence instead.

jp

I would, in a heartbeat. The question is whether the Jets would, and I’d guess the answer is no.

The Jets have been one of the very worst defensive teams in the league in recent years (worse than the Ducks and much worse than the Oilers, based on public data), yet Hellebuyck maintained very strong results (and won a Vezina).

THAT is a starting goalie worth paying a kings ransom for, IMO.

Redbird62

In the last 5 seasons, Allen has had a save %’s of .906,.905, .927, .907, .905, with an average of .908. That ranks him 50 of any goalie who played more than 50 games over that stretch and barely ahead of Koskinen’s .907 for his term with the Oilers and Allen played the first 3 seasons of that for the Blues, generally a sound defensive team. The 24 games in 2020 with the .927 looks like an outlier since the Blues traded him right after that.

Maybe he is good at playing the puck though. The Oilers defense is set up to lean on a goalie who helps them with dump ins.

OriginalPouzar

I’ve said all along that I don’t think the league would approve it:

PuckPedia
@PuckPedia
Further to 
@Bob_Stauffer
 on 
@OilersNow
 today, also hearing that NHL’s current position is that teams should not receive recapture cap credit/benefit, even though calc. is outlined in ’13 CBA Section 50.5.d.ii.

There would likely be a discussion b/w team & NHL if Keith retired

———-

Follow up on that tweet:

Daniel Nugent-Bowman
@DNBsports
·
10m
I’ve heard whispers of this, too. 

Considering the cap recapture rules are outlined in the CBA, this would be some ne

Redbird62

I do not believe Stauffer and DNB are correct about their interpretation of the CBA. As I mentioned yesterday, 50.5.d.ii is actually silent on the topic of Cap Disadvantage Recapture. So it is definitely not spelled out in the agreement that the Oilers would get last year’s spread back. The language is specifically addressing an advantage any club received if the contract was traded not the converse of a disadvantage:

“Notwithstanding the provisions of Sections 50.5(d)(ii)(A) and (B), in the event that any such Long-Term Contract is Assigned during its term, each Club for which the Player plays under the terms of that Long-Term Contract shall be subject to being charged with any and all “Cap Advantage Recapture” amounts it receives pursuant to that Long-Term Contract,”

The Oilers did not receive an advantage. The math will calculate someone needs to pay the $4 million shortfall for 2022/23 if Keith retires. Since Chicago received the only advantage during the contract it would owe the $4million. That allocation method worked for Vancouver/Florida with no ambiguity. This interpretation is readily defensible both in the language and the spirit of the section.

Scungilli Slushy

I find it easy to get sentimental about players

Listening to guys we’re lucky enough to get to hear like Struds and Gage put some perspective on it for me

They get what they are/were largely

Mikko is a class guy and seems like a good human. I thought he’d go back over and enjoy the rest of his career having more fun

Because he was fortunate to play for a team out if control on and off the ice. So he got 4.5M US for a bunch of years, unearned money, but his fair and square

He was passable as an NHL goalie. He had significant technique issues that at is age were not going away. The difference in the KHL – the second league – and the NHL is consistency and technique

All great hockey players. But only the best of the best stick in the NHL for long. As in any top pro league

I wish him thanks as he took crap – they all do- and bailed his team out as he could and was obviously well liked by them, and I would say most Oiler fans with a sense of balance

Last edited 1 year ago by Scungilli Slushy
jp

And through all it, Koskinen had an 83-59-13 record as an Oiler.

6th all time in wins for the club (Fuhr, Ranford, Salo, Moog, Talbot, Koskinen).

I wish him well too.

OriginalPouzar

Brad Malone signed to a one-year, 2-way deal.

Love this guy on the Condors but, if he’s on the NHL roster for games at any time, there are clear issues with team depth.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

Like during an own zone face-off in overtime in the WCF?

OriginalPouzar

I know he was 4 for 6 that game but that was a poor choice.

He did scramble the draw, mind you.

Elgin R

At pick #29 you are talking about a forward who might help in 2 – 3 years, a dman in 3 – 4 years and a goalie in 4 – 5 years. The Oiler window in 3 years long with Draisaitl on his value contract.

  • Trade, do not buyout Kassian
  • Trade Barrie
  • Trade the #1 for help now and to get rid of Kassian if you have to
  • Win Stanley
StixMalone

Malone re-signed to a two year two-way extension……Holland loves his old players…..

jp

Malone is a great guy to have in Bakersfield, and it never hurts to have depth.

I guess Woodcroft might actually play him some, though he did only play 10 of the 54 games after Woodcroft was hired.

OriginalPouzar

He shouldn’t have the option of playing him – if he does, well, we could see him in games 3 and 4 of the WCF.

Yes, I would have preferred various others including Holloway (game 3), Brassard, Benson, even Archie.

Holloway was a non-factor in game 4 but, of course, if he had Malone’s 5 on 5 minutes in games 3 and 4, we don’t know.

OriginalPouzar

Geezus, the contract is two years, not one.

Holy hell… really?

Such a small thing, it doesn’t really matter as its fully buryable and likely will be buried for the vast majority of the contract, but still, why?

jp

It’s funny, you’re reacting just like so many did last year to the Shore signing. And at that time you were like, ‘it’s fully buyable, what are you upset about’?

Brad Malone is your line in the sand (and played over Shore FWIW).

OriginalPouzar

Shore is an NHL player.

Malone is not an NHL player – prior to this year, he hadn’t even had an NHL contract in years – for a reason.

Yes, Malone played over Shore which, to me, was a big mistake by Woody – a big one.

I don’t want him to have that option going forward – that’s the issue.

jp

Shore is an NHL player.

Malone is not an NHL player

Yeah, I don’t think there’s a large gap between a lot of these tweeners. Malone has played over 200 NHL games after all, and has continued to be a strong AHL player. (Archibald has played only 35 more career games for instance, and Benson 170-odd fewer).

Beyond that, his main role will certainly not be in the NHL. He is aiding development of the prospects, as Redbird just said.

And if Woodcroft does end up playing Malone at some point… I’ll approach it as I did with Woodcroft’s decisions in the playoffs. As long as the team is still playing good/great hockey overall, he can do whatever the hell he sees fit, and I’m not going to question it.

OriginalPouzar

I think there is a large gap between Shore and Malone – there is a reason why those 200 games “finished” years ago.

That was a big mistake, in my opinion, playing Malone over Shore.

Shore has some really good stretches for the Oilers this year and was quite good (relative) in the playoffs last season. Malone has never as an Oiler.

He must have been hurt as there is no reason for Malone to play NHL games, lets alone NHL playoff games, over Shore.

Redbird62

The “not an NHL player” Malone, in his very limited regular season minutes scored 2 points in 25% of the time it took Benson to get his 2 points. Malone scored a higher points per 60 than Shore and killed penalties slightly more effectively as well (though neither was particularly good. He also hit others more often per minute than any other Oiler except Archibald, but the opponent generally felt Malone’s hits more. Hey, he is way down the depth chart, but for what Woody wanted out of a 4th liner for 5 or 6 minutes in a game, he had his reasons for picking Malone. Maybe Shore would have worked out to have been a better pIck for game 3 or 4, but it is not clear cut that Woody was way off base.

During the regular season, Woody chose to dress Shore 22 times and Malone 8 times for a number of different possible reasons. I don’t think his choices in the playoffs were based on favoritism.

OriginalPouzar

In his 2 playoff games: 5.07 GA/60 – worst on the team.

In his 8 regular season games: 4.36 GA/60 – worst on the team (except for 3 players that played one game).

As the “responsible 4th liner”, well, he isn’t. He is worse than Josh Archibald as far as leaking goals against but slower, doesn’t hit as well, etc.

HIs PK does not make him an NHL player, in my opinion.

Redbird62

It wasn’t years. He was on an AHL contract for 20-21 and the first – 50 games of 21-22 all while Tippett was the coach. He signed a new NHL 2 way deal the day before Woody was promoted.

Redbird62

Maybe he is good for the development of young players on the AHL team. Lots of young forwards coming through. But to encourage him to continue to play for the Condors, besides showing him some loyalty with a 2 year term, he at least he had to be tantalized by the possibility of getting some NHL games even if that only happens because of some significant injury/illness issues.

OriginalPouzar

As I said, I love him on the Condors and want him back as captain – not as a guy Woody may have some bias too and play over actual NHL players.

Redbird62

While I am sure Woody has input on who gets recalled from the AHL, Holland has the final decision on the 23 man roster. Only after he gets recalled, does Woody have final say on whether he plays. Anyone who gets on the 23 man roster, the organization collectively believes can help the team based on the circumstances surrounding their recall (because others are injured/sick etc.).

OriginalPouzar

Malone was on the expanded playoff roster, along with the likes of Carter Savoie and other who had zero chance of playing.

I don’t doubt that if in, say, November, Woody asks for a Malone call-up, Holland likely appeases him – he just signed the guy to a 2-year NHL contract – for some reason, after years and years of playing on AHL contracts and now in his 30s.

In any event, its a non-issue, until it becomes an issue, as it did in the team’s last 2 games….

Rugbypig

That “smack upside the head” you delivered made made the back of mine itch in sympathy.

northerndancer

You are missing the point OP. This is punishment for losing that last minute faceoff. Malone is signed for 2 years in Bakersfield. 2 years in Bakersfield! Would you spend 2 weeks in Bakersfield?

Bag of Pucks

We took about the hooking and holding he has to fight through.

Can you imagine the sheer number of gold digger charges he has to evade?

Law of averages meets law of attraction. It’s a powder keg. A powder keg I tell ya!

Harpers Hair
leadfarmer

is the entire Canucks team on the list?

Harpers Hair

No but they’ve been very busy this week signing two defensemen and a forward out of the SHL.

Building up the prospect pool without expending any assets.

Smart.

Redbird62

We’ll see how smart Allvin is. All 3 of these prospects are already 22 with 2 being forwards and one defenseman (not the other way around).  One of the three they signed, Linus Karlson (he will actually turn 23 this year) is a center they traded for the rights to back in 2019. They traded Jonathan Dahlin to the Sharks to obtain him. Dahlin has already played 62 games for the Sharks this past season.  So for him they did expend an asset, and probably a better one.  Filip Johansson is a defenseman drafted by Minnesota back in 2018 in the first round and they chose not to make him a contract offer making him a free agent. Nils Aman, is a center, was drafted as an overager by Colorado who also did not offer him a contract making him a free agent.  Probably all late bloomers like that future hall of famer Brogan Rafferty.  

Harpers Hair

I’m very aware of who these players are.

It’s all about having lots of bullets.

While being older, Karlsson set the SHL rookie scoring record set by Elias Pettersson.

There may indeed be a late bloomer (or two), there may not but this is a no risk way to fid out and you can bet Allvin knows all these players well.

Far preferable to clinging to aged out prospects like 24 year old Benson and 25 year old Marody.

jp

Was Pettersson 22 when he set the rookie record?

Redbird62

No but Pettersson managed to get his 24 goals in 44 games at 19, and a total of 56 points, while Karlsson took 52 games to get his 26 goals and 46 points. Pettersen followed it up with 19 points in 13 playoff games to help his team win the SHL championship. Karlsson managed a single point in 6 playoff games as his team was eliminated in the first round. Maybe he has an NHL career, maybe not, but he has been on the Canucks list for 4 seasons, so it is not like this is some new astute transaction.

jp

Thanks. Karlsson is the only one who looks like he has any kind of chance to be an NHLer, but you’re right, you never know. Certainly nothing to write home about.

Something like a Kuzmenko signing would be actually notable.

Redbird62

If you are so aware, why did you say that they signed 2 defenseman and a forward when it was 2 forwards and 1 defenseman? Hell, it is right there on capfriendly. Then you said they gave up nothing, when in fact for Linus Karlsson (the 22 year old SHL rookie phenom), to get his rights back in 2019, they did trade a player who is now playing in the NHL. Now maybe those rights have lapsed but all they did with him was sign their own prospect that they have had the rights to since 2019. So I probably learned more about them in 5 minutes on the internet than you knew before you posted that stuff just to pretend you’re smart (like Allvin) because you need a quick comeback to Leadfarmer’s post.

meanashell11

I hope you are a woman as I may love you!

OriginalPouzar

Of course team in front matters but, as per my earlier post, Koskinen has a better save percentage than Gibson over the last 3 years.

Im not saying “Mikko is better” but the contract alone is a risk let alone adding on a massive acquisition cost.

Potential high reward transaction but massive risk as well.

Justthestatsman

Agree, Gibson is a big risk.

I haven’t looked at the options in too much detail. Who’s your target if Smith does come back? Do they carry three goalies when Smith isn’t injured?

What about if Smith doesn’t come back…does that change the target?

Mariusz Czerkawski

I think its a risk you need to take. We need a goalie within the 3-4 year window of drai and mcdavid’s current deals to help us get to stanley. is skinner that guy? no clue but you can’t bet on that. gibson has shown the ability and that is worth the risk because i don’t see any other available that can take you there. its a manageable contract from a salary perspective and with his age not an immovable object should you need to down the line if skinner pops or something else happens.

Acquisition cost will be important but dang it i want us to go all in for once. the window is fast closing and now is the time to do it. this year’s first, next year’s first, samoroukov, niemeleinin, broberg, lavoie, one of holloway/bourgault. Any of those would be painful to lose but worth it in whatever the package is. Probably this year’s first, one D prospect, one forward prospect, foegele (money) and some other pick in 2023?

Last edited 1 year ago by Mariusz Czerkawski
OriginalPouzar

I would prefer a one-year stop gap to see what Skinner looks like with a full year in the NHL and real games.

My optimal is Varlamov – one year at $5MM and he can handle 50 games.

Edmonton has been on his no-trade but, now that he’s one year from UFA, he may be more amenable to a year in Edmonton as the true starter (he’s well behind Sorokin on the island).

Jethro Tull

You need to delve deeper – Overall, Mikko has a better save percentage, but only in one year, 19/20 where he was 0.917. His next year, he was 0.899. Then 0.903.

Gibson has played 142 games to Mikko’s 109.

If we go for larger sample sizes, it’s no contest – Mikko has played half the NHL games Gibson has and has a much poorer SV% – 0.906 to 0.915.

If Kenny was a true gambler, he should gamble that Gibson could rebound over another year of Smith and a relatively inexperienced Skinner.

Munny 2.0

One of them is a $2.2M, one-year gamble. The other a 6.4M five-year gamble.

The risk is a tad asymmetrical.

Jethro Tull

One is 40 and trending horrifically. The other is 28 and never been below 0.900 in his NHL career.

Talking ourselves out of a decent tender and in to another year of Mike Smith is Tambellini/MacT/Chia era Smartest Men in the Room thinking.

Mariusz Czerkawski

This is exactly it. What are we doing if we aren’t trying everything to win a cup in the mcdavid/drai contract window? We KNOW we can’t do it with smith as the tender. We have no clue what skinner is yet. We know Gibson can be a top 10 goalie, we just have no idea if he can still be that on a non-rebuilding team. Its a gamble i take and if it bites us in the butt at least we tried. The LA Rams did it the past few years and finally won

OriginalPouzar

If “never been below .900” is the bar for an argument, I don’t think $6.4MM X 5 plus MAJOR assets out is the reasonable, is it?

Jethro Tull

I thought we were cherry picking sample sizes and stats that fit our narrative. Like “last three years”.

Somewhere, Woodguy is feeling a great disturbance in the force…;-)

OriginalPouzar

No, 3 years is not cherry-picked, its the total years that can be aggregated on NST.

Is it not the most relevant in any event? Feel free to run 2 or 1 years and provide results.

Redbird62

From Feb 11 to the end of the season, (after the all star break) the about to turn 29 Gibson started 23 games and had a save % below .900 15 times – often well below. His save % average over that stretch was .876 compared to Stolarz .917 in 10 starts + 4 other games when Gibson was pulled over the same stretch. That has not been atypical of him the last 3 seasons, hot start, falls off a cliff where he averages .903. Oh and Anaheim was 4 points ahead of Edmonton and in a playoff spot when he started that nose dive. Though the Oilers had 4 games in hand, he clearly had something to play for.

If Anaheim gave him for picks and taking Kassian maybe, but that is some awful goaltending over a significant stretch to trade assets for then have to play $6+ million for 5 seasons. Some goalie scout guru would have to tell you his issues are readily fixable.

Jethro Tull

This is a much better break down and nuanced look. Do goalies have PDO, lol?

That Stolarz fellow. He sounds familiar.

My point is people are starting to cast shade on all the goalies out there available in order to justify another year of Smith and an inexperienced back-up in there heads after we just went to the conference final.

Yes, the defense wasn’t good or mobile enough. The forwards couldn’t get the forecheck going. But these paled next to the glaring weakness of the goal tending. And Smith had a decent playoff SV% (0.913). But those single events can kill you, particularly if you’re prone to multiple single events. If that makes sense.

You wouldn’t happen to know the HDSC SV%? This may give a better view.

jp

Talking ourselves out of a decent tender and in to another year of Mike Smith is Tambellini/MacT/Chia era Smartest Men in the Room thinking.

Even when the SV% for Gibson/Smith over the past 3 seasons was:
19-20 .904/.902
20-21 .903/.923
21-22 .904/.915

Who’s the smartest man?

Jethro Tull

Again, what is it with this arbitrary “last 3 seasons”? Bigger the sample size the clearer the picture, no?

jp

Again, what is it with this arbitrary “last 3 seasons”? Bigger the sample size the clearer the picture, no?

Gibson has been a highly questionable goalie for 3 full seasons. That’s a damn long time. And these are Gibson’s ‘peak’ years.

Matt Murray was great in 2018-19 too (the last time Gibson had even a .905 SV%).

Heck, Matt Murray is:
-the same age
-has only a slightly worse SV% since 2018-19 (.899 vs .904)
-has actually won a couple of cups
-has a slightly lower cap hit
-will cost far less to acquire (actually, Ottawa will pay us)

There’s your target Ken Holland.

OriginalPouzar

For my stats, I used 3-years as that’s the amount of years NST will aggregate.

No, in particular for goalies, who can vary widely by season (except elites), I would posit that the last 3-years is more applicable than the last 5.

jp

You wouldn’t happen to know the HDSC SV%? This may give a better view.

Gibson’s was .813 over 3 seasons, .829 this past season.

Smith’s was .823 over 3 seasons and .841 this year.

jp

Of 58 goalies with 3000+ minutes over 3 seasons, Smith was 18th in HD SV%, Gibson was 30th.

Munny 2.0

My plan B if Smith regresses from past performance starts with an open slate next year.

What’s your plan B if Gibson maintains present suck?

Last edited 1 year ago by Munny 2.0
Jethro Tull

Well, we know for sure that Smith’s performance is an extreme outlier for goalies his age. We are NOT playing with house money with him.

I’m not hung up on Gibson by any means as his replacement, *Insert Name Here* average goalie will do. Holland brought in vets to provide stability and leadership during the playoffs. I liked Keith’s poise this playoffs. And Kane’s. Smith was a loose cannon. And out of all your players, it’s the goalie you want to be your steady Eddie.

FabioRoberto

Gibson is overrated and always injured.

OriginalPouzar

Oubviously due to contract but Mikko was a bit under-appreciated over this time in Edmonton. He was a good solider and often asked to “do too much”. At the same time, over the course of the last three seasons, with a .907 save percentage, Mikko ranked 27th in save percentage, better than the likes of Blackwood, Grubauer, Price, Bobrovsky, Gibson, Gorgieve, Samsanov, Hart, Rittich, Quick, Holtby, Murray, etc.

kelvjn

Not sure it is possible to delineate the contract from the performance though. Koskinen was signed to starting goalie money, and it is difficult to say he was so naive he didn’t expect the starters work load.

Asking him to stand on his head ~50 games a season would be asking for too much, but at this day and age 0.907 sv% does not cut it (which, by the way was bolstered by 15th ranked 0.917 three seasons ago that preceded his 0.902 and 0.903 seasons).

JimmyV1965

The question the team needs to answer is why has Gibson started so strong the last couple season and faded down the stretch? Is is health, exhaustion or just a bad team catching up with the goalie?

Harpers Hair

There may be a situation that mitigates the risk somewhat.

If the Ducks move Gibson’s $6.4 million cap hit they will have $45.5 million in cap space…well below the floor.

They may very well be open to both retaining on Gibson and taking on a bad contract.

And, after blowing up their D core at the trade deadline I would imagine they would like to add some age appropriate younger D man to join Drysdale and Zellweger in the future.

I would imagine the Oilers could build a package around the 2023 1st, another pick, Samorukov and Kassian.

norm2015

i did a sail on mikko post on facebook. people just cant appreciate he tried his best

kelvjn

In the immortalized words of Connery:

https://youtu.be/gXDSxgDUv-c

Hiratij

After reading this article by Scott Wheeler, Lane Hutson is now my dream pick for the Oilers. Might be able to get him by trading down, but I would also be okay spending #29 on him. Could be a very high reward pick.

https://theathletic.com/3171349/2022/03/11/who-is-lane-hutson-the-2022-nhl-drafts-unicorn-5-foot-8-defenseman/

Hiratij

Could be the next Jared Spurgeon or Quinn Hughes.

Material Elvis

Tyler Wright likes big, athletic types who can skate. He traditionally has not drafted many smurfs.

Scungilli Slushy

Thank goodness

It’s hard enough for players with typical NHL attributes to make it

Im not sure many guys with top of the draft speed and skill slip down anymore bcs size bias. There aren’t un-scouted leagues left

And if they don’t have that what’s the point?

LMHF#1

The wide gulf that’s developing on opinions re: #13 is starting to become the Benson debacle on steroids.

He’s not an elite player.
He’s not a bum.
He can be traded or kept.
He can return equal or more value.
This situation does not have only one acceptable outcome.

hunter1909

JP was injured as was Nurse and Draisaitl, yet no one talks about them…

oh yeah elite player.

Bring him back until his agent fucks everything up. Then Sather him off for an upgrade.

Bumblebpete

If I were advising Ken Holland and Tyler Wright, the recommendation would be dealing No. 29 for multiple selections…
When I first read this, I thought Lowetide was talking about Drai.

Elgin R

Now that would be a fireable offense!

DBO

with this run to the Conference finals i expect the view of Edmonton has changed for free agents. Winning is everything, and i hope most will consider coming if possible,

saw this on twitter:

Nick Alberga

@thegoldenmuzzy
·
18m

Hearing Ducks G John Gibson is open to being dealt and belief out of Anaheim is he’s informed the club of that.

Go for the big guns. Mackinnon saying that he’d trade 10 first round picks for Lehktonen after he scored the series winner in game 4 shows what player thinks of future picks. We have a 3 year window with Draisatl and Mcdavid. Push your chips all in. Move Yamamoto or Puljujarvi if needed. But a top 10 goalie is the difference right now. You can argue Gibson hasn’t been that recently, but quality of team in front of him is a huge thing.

LMHF#1

People can rag on Gibson all they want – if he’s in the net the Oilers are still playing hockey right now. No way he’s letting in a bunch with the low quality shots the team was allowing.

I had in my mind a random scenario where as you advance in the playoffs you can take one player from the defeated team with you to the next round. Johnny Quick wins another cup with the Oilers…random!

Kinger_Oil.redux

— meh: they weren’t a “better goalie” away from the Cup unless really optimistic IMO. This years roster wasn’t ready for prime time. Stanley Cup has identified the best team that has been close and sustained almost always. St-Louis being the exception last 20 years. Think Chicago LA Pitts Washington Detroit Tampa, etc: great teams for many years that win one or more as a result of a lot going right.

— Either of the Cup finalists this year fit that criteria IMO.

— A 110 point plus season next year and Oil could fit that criteria. Cup winners are generally perennial great teams over many season that go deep often.

— just posting and hiding from the face punching market is giving : ouch.

DevilsLettuce

Being final 4 is prime time, beating Calgary in 5 to get there was definitely a prime time move.

Oilers with better goaltending against the Avalanche, the series would be up for grabs.

FabioRoberto

You mean with better defence they series would have been up for grabs

pts2pndr

Take landescog off for the blind side deliberate hit to the head that finished Yamamoto for the finals and the consistent interference and tripping of Draisaitl that were not called and it’s a different series.

Munny 2.0

I warned everyone about the markets a few weeks back. You think your face is punched now, just wait till you see how it feels next spring. Da Fed hasn’t even started to drain liquidity yet.

What a joke economics and finance have become. All the brains in the world and yet we still repeat the mistakes of history over and over again. Because, this time it’s different, lol.

hunter1909

The Oilers are freaking desperate for a quality NHL starter.

OriginalPouzar

I posted elsewhere regarding Mikko having a better save percentage than Gibson over the last 3 years. Gibson was also MINUS 18 in GSAA (Mikko was minus 3 and change).

I’m not saying Gibson isn’t better, of course he likely is, team in front does matter alot but I’m not sure the above statement is necessarily fact.

With respect, have you watched many Duck games over the last few years to see if he’s leaking weak ones consistently? I haven’t, I just don’t know but the numbers don’t look good.

I’d love Gibson but that contract alone is a risk given recent years and that’s without taking in to account massive acquisition cost.

Last edited 1 year ago by OriginalPouzar
FabioRoberto

lol you’re kidding right?

leadfarmer

Yeah a lot of people think Gibson is garbage because of some tough years on a horrible team playing for nothing but I have no doubt he’s be our best goaler since CuJo

leadfarmer

Also see Quicks previous 3 season

Reja

Eakins is hard on Goalies I’m surprised Gibson has lasted this long.

jp

Anthony Stolarz has a .919 SV% for Anaheim over the past 2 seasons to .904 for Gibson.

Kurri17

I just saw this NHL “Quest for the Stanley Cup Final” for 2022 video yesterday and thought I would share in case you missed it like me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aoy7jySk28g&ab_channel=NHL

There is some amazing behind the scenes footage of the Oilers’ second round series here (starts around 4:00 mark). I particularly enjoyed seeing Woody coach behind the scenes and hearing the players mic’d up. Also you can see in the post-Calgary celebrations that Kane is definitely accepted as one of the in-group.

hunter1909

Good memories but Oilers can ill afford Kane.

Louis Levasseur

I like Woodcroft and Manson, and hope they are signed. Since they came on board, I have heard nothing about Gulutson or Wiseman. It’s almost like they were invisible and contributed nothing to the success. Is there any information on whether they’ll be back? Both were inherited by Woodcroft. Maybe he wants to choose his own assistant coaches.

Coilers2021

I certainly think he’s earned the right to pick his own assistants.

OriginalPouzar

There is almost zero doubt that Woody and Manson will be back – both Holland and Woody essentially confirmed it without saying it outright.

They are speaking this week.

From accounts, Gully fit in well with the new staff and was very helpful even though he was passed over. That doesn’t mean that Woody won’t want “his guy” on the staff going forward though.

OriginalPouzar

Kuzmenko is meeting with Van, Edm and two US based clubs this week. Per Dreger.

Kinger_Oil.redux

— congrats on this again LT: it’s one of the unique and great features of this blog. A labour of love and given your lifelong love of drafts and history I hope we get to read them for years to come…

— Giving Skinner 12 starts this year and 1 the year before was really poor management decision. They (and Skinner) don’t have much to base their decision on for where he fits next year: he hasn’t started multiple games in a row, never had a defined role. He’s a blank slate next season without having gained experience to know how to get ready for whatever his larger role might be.

— Smith Skinner doesn’t “feel” like a Cuo tandem. Certainly not the profile of championship teams last 20 years.

— They can’t start season with this tandem. It’s rookie blues or smith injury away from disaster and no other redundancy built in. I said I’d eat my hat if smith won 16 playoff games. I will look of hat eating recipe if they start the year with these two (although more probable than Smith being a Cup goalie, who were they kidding)

LMHF#1

There has been zero explanation of the handling of Skinner. And no reporter has bothered to go there.

I’d say it makes no sense, but they don’t do their job anymore so…* shrug *

hunter1909

Ha ha ha I have been like this the entire Russia/Ukraine war so far.

OriginalPouzar

LMHF#1

 Reply to Kinger_Oil.redux

 June 13, 2022 10:43 am

There has been zero explanation of the handling of Skinner. And no reporter has bothered to go there.

This is simply 100% false.

The reason was they wanted to give Smith rope to “get up and running”. The media asked about Skinner many many times and both Holland and Tippett/Woody gave that answer.

Agree with it or not (with or without taking in to account that Smith did find his game and was top of the league for 6 weeks) there has been an explanation and the above is not reality.

hunter1909

I’d have gone into the playoffs with Skinner as number 2.

Special K shot into the sun. To make room.

leadfarmer

When the season looked like it could go in the toilet neither coach tried running Skinner. This is a big tell.
I think he needs to take a big step forward to be an NHL goalie

OriginalPouzar

I have stated that the biggest organizational fail this season was not giving Skinner more games to find out what role he is likely ready for next season. There was the opportunity when Smith was struggling big time to find his game.

Looking back, well, Smith finding his game was massive for the rest of the season and playoffs so I probably should scale back that statement a bit but, still, we don’t know what he have in Stu at this point.

That’s one reason I don’t want to commit term and cap to a middling 1B like Campbell or similar.

I would like a one-year stop gap to play 1A to Skinner. Varlamov would be perfect, in my opinion. Isles likely have interest in Barrie but Varlamov has the modified NTC…..

Reimer or, even better, Talbot if the Wild sign Fleury, are other potential short term stop gaps in this regard.

jp

That’s one reason I don’t want to commit term and cap to a middling 1B like Campbell or similar.

What on earth are you looking for in a 1A (or future Skinner, for that matter) if Campbell is a ‘middling 1B’?

Last edited 1 year ago by jp
OriginalPouzar

I don’t know what Skinner is this season, next season, in the future.

We should know much more after he plays 30 games, give or take, no?

Lots want to throw that money and term at Husso, well, Skinner has been better at each of the comparable levels to Husso over the last few years (and at a younger age at each stage) – including each of their last full seasons in the AHL and each of their first cups of coffee in the NHL (SKinner this year vs. Husso last year).

MUCH better at each stage.

I want to make sure that Skinner isn’t the next Husso before I throw the money at an external.

I’m not “throwing away the season”, of course, I’m looking for a guy like Varlamov to be the 1A with Skinner this season. Talbot would work. Reimer, a lesser, but similar type option.

All of those tenders could easily be just as good, if not better, than Campbell next season with a MUCH lower commitment on the cap.

jp

Yeah, I just find it odd to call Campbell a ‘middling 1B’ when he has better numbers than most of the guys you favor over him (he’s a career .916 goalie).

I understand he’ll be among the most expensive, but objectively he’s among the 2 or 3 best goalies available.

OriginalPouzar

Fair, maybe he’s better than I’ve given him credit.

My point is still how I feel – the tier of goalie available is not where I’d want to commit 4-5 years (and $5M per). I’m not there for that level of goalie, not until we see what Skinner is likely to provide in the short and medium term.

I’d prefer Varlamov, who is in the same tier in my opinion, for the one-year commitment it comes with.

Varlamov has played over 50 games 4 times (I believe) – Campbell has maxed out at 49 – this past year mind you.

Redbird62

How about Reimer? I know Reja has been pitching him. He is 34, but played 48 games last season for San Jose, and he only has one year remaining for $2.25 million. Good numbers this past season too. His no trade is limited to 5 teams.

OriginalPouzar

Yes, I have mentioned Riemer – similar to Varlamov and Talbot.

I don’t have as much confidence in Reimer to play 50 games though.

Redbird62

Based on ability to handle the work/perform for 50 games or injury concerns? Reimer just played 48 games and did well. Varlymov games played have diminished annually from 51 games in 2018 to 31 this last year. Talbot got into 49 games this past year, first time he has been over 33 in a season since he played 67 with the Oilers in 17/18. Reimer and Varlymov both just turned 34 while Talbot will be 35 in a few weeks.

Granted Reimer has never really been a career starter, but Talbot was only really the Guy with the Oilers and for the first part of this season with Minnesota and they decided to get Fleury at the deadline.

jp

Yes, fair enough. I don’t really agree because I think the best case for Skinner is basically a Campbell level goalie. And even if that happens, you have two 1As, which is totally fine (and kinda what you want).

But it’s fine if we disagree, and as I’ve said I’m OK with the other options mentioned if a legitimate #1 isn’t available.

buck yoakam

sticking to our selections in the last three drafts (1st round) shouldn’t the kids last name start with a “B”?…just saying…

JJS

I can’t recall who posted the article comparing European goalies versus Canadian and the vast difference in NHL success.

Euros were considerably more successful despite significantly less being drafted.

It was quite staggering.

The QMJHL goalie pipeline may have dried up?

Bling

Is it cap circumvention if Keith is traded somewhere, bought out, and signed by the Oilers to the min salary?

If he comes back he should be a 7D.

leadfarmer

No it’s not. The league doesn’t like it but I bet they’d allow it.
and this is exactly what they should do

OriginalPouzar

The league allowed that with Orpik but I don’t think they liked it and likely let the league managers know that.

I don’t think it would be approved.

I also don’t think Keith himself would OK it – even if it made sense financially. This is a first ballot hall of fame d-man that is still able to play top 4 on a good team at 38 – I don’t think he needs buyout on his playing card.

Rondo

If Noah Ostlund is available at #29, Oilers should jump on it.

stephen sheps

I feel for Mikko and am glad he’s moving on. The Swiss League makes a lot of sense.The way I see it is that Koskinen never really had a chance; he was miscast as a true starter, paid like a true starter and was essentially Chia’s version of a spite store (“I know what I’ll do before they fire me tomorrow, I’ll sign our perfectly cromulent backup goaler to a 3×4.5 extension on my way out. Yeah. Yeah, that’ll be great. Screw these guys!”). He was a strong backup, a nice guy and seemed to be a really supportive teammate, but despite his size and pedigree (and KHL success), he was never really set up for success.

Like Horcoff before him (and I fear Nurse starting next year),Koskinen’s contract dictated the expectations that were thrust upon him. He never should have been in this position, especially since Talbot was clearly the better goalie and probably would have cost the same or maybe a tiny bit more as Mikko for his extension. Despite the inconsistent play and obvious weaknesses as a goalie (slow glove, needs lots of rest between starts and wears down easily), he still finished with a winning record across his 4 years and did everything asked of him to the best of his abilities. I wish him well in Lugano. Hope he wins a championship or a Spengler. You could do a lot worse than move to Lugano at 33 – it looks like a really beautiful city.

Last edited 1 year ago by stephen sheps
Jethro Tull

Looks beautiful there!

Nothing against Koski. The book was out early on him and he just couldn’t adapt. He was solid in relief and spectacular at times. Consistency was his nemesis, as it is a for a lot of professional sports people.

Sail on, Utah Grizzly.

Justthestatsman

Happy for Mikko that he gets a chance to move on. One of my favourite memories of the year was the reaction of the team when he backstopped them to a win after everyone (especially the news media) wanted to run him out of town saying he should never start another game. I actually also thought his weak glove got considerably better over the course of this year as well. Not all star quality or anything, but a lot better.

Of course hindsight is 20-20, but I wonder if it would have been a better play to come back with Mikko in game two against Colorado. I had expected a bounce back game for Smith and he was better, just not good enough to win. If Mikko wins that game, great and if he doesn’t they still haven’t lost a home game so they still have a chance and Smith has had more time to recover from whatever was ailing him.

Unless of course it was entirely old age that was his problem and I can vouch that there’s no cure for that!

Last edited 1 year ago by Justthestatsman
jp

Agree the teams reaction at that point (January) was really nice to see. I think that losing streak, and the reaction to it, really galvanized the team.

Kinger_Oil.redux

— yeah Koski was mostly a victim of being signed by a previous regime. Pretty hard to have sustained success with the way he was played and treated. When they rode him into the ground the determined he was no good it was over. Glad his family is set. He was good for Pool as well

— I’ve got a buddy who plays in that Swiss league so will be good to keep tabs on him.

leadfarmer

Probably picking the largest defenseman available

Rondo

The D-men at #29 possibilities

Bichsel

Chesley

Pickering

Luneau

Odelius

Rinzel

Casey

John Chambers

Wheeler has a mock draft up, and right after the Oilers pick he describes Luneau – a big RHD who overcame an injury early in the season, and whose offensive game has grown.

Taking a look at Elias Salomonsson, a 17-year old RHD who split time between Sweden’s top Junior league along with 10 games in the SHL, there appears to be a player with heaps of upside.

I’m down on Seamus Casey because he’s so tiny, but perhaps I’m behind the times 😉

Jethro Tull

I wonder if losing Woody from Bakersfield influences Hollands picks. Woody developed some good players…

northerndancer

The decisions around Woodies replacement may be as significant in the medium and long term than the decisions around goalkeeping.

OriginalPouzar

I think we’ll learn soon of Colin Chaulk is hired full time (similar to Woody up here). I was not enthused with much of his work to tell you the truth.

northerndancer

I think the views of Woodie as an assistant to Flattop gave me insight into his style and gave me hope for his tenure as a head coach in Bfield. It seems to have proven to be a good choice. I haven’t got the same reference points for Chaulk.

Chelios is a Dinosaur

This is going to be the shortest Oilers off season in a while. Yay!

jp

It’s a deep draft, and the Oilers may want to increase chances of getting an NHL player. They may also want to trade the pick. Those two subjects are discussed in my piece for The Athletic (link above) this morning.

Do you mean your “What will the Oilers do in the 1st round” article from Saturday? It looks like you’re missing a link to that in your post today. Apologies if I missed reference to the draft in your “Free agency” piece from this morning.

OriginalPouzar

In the 32 Thoughts pod this morning, Friedman says if Smith doesn’t retire, LTIR is a possibility as he is “really banged up”.

Also stated that Keith really enjoyed his time, he’s likely to come back but org wants him to take a bit of time. The org would be happy to come back and we’re happy with what he added.

Neither are for sure but Keith more likely to return

Nobody asked for a trade but some wanted to clarity in likely role and, if it’s not at the top, wondering if there is another fit somewhere. Very clear the player was happy with team and the playoffs, etc.

Last edited 1 year ago by OriginalPouzar
jp

Nobody asked for a trade but some wanted to discuss likely role……

Sounds like Puljujarvi, no? There was some suggestion of that in one of those Finnish articles you linked, though Google translate is always a little tough.

I’m not sure who else could have concerns in that regard, possibly Foegele?

leadfarmer

Foggy wanted a larger role in Carolina hence he was traded. Definitely didn’t get it here. Probably on the move

Bling

The clock was always ticking on Foegele because of Holloway.

He definitely should be on the move.

Diablo

Both Foggy and Jesse need to work on their shooting. Yamo too. I think we’ll be lamenting the same about Holloway next off season, but he’s recovering from the hand injury, so we’ll also be happy if just plays a full season.

When you’ve got three playmaking centres, the wingers have to be better at burying their chances. Kane and Hyman were the only ones capable of doing this on a regular basis.

jp

I didn’t realize he wanted a larger role than he had in Carolina. No, he didn’t get it in Edmonton for sure.

OriginalPouzar

He was given the opportunity for a larger role given he was one of the first guy moved up to the top six when injuries and illness hit – lots of reps in the top 6 – he didn’t run with the opportunity.

OriginalPouzar

Foegele started at 3LW and was the first guy to move up in to the top 6 when injuries and illness hit – he got plenty of opportunity to get an increased role but didn’t grab it.

I don’t think he wants out but, of course, given his cap hit, he is a candidate to be moved.

Bling

Sounds like JP to a tee.

Kassian as top line RW is a tell. Even injured JP is a better option in that spot.

Someone has to sit 97 and 29 down and tell them what’s what. JW is the man to do it.

jp

I thought it was JWs fault…

Now it’s 97 and 29, and JW has to fix it?

OriginalPouzar

This was the first time that, to a man, the players went in to the off-season happy with what the accomplished and the steps taken and where the team is headed.

flyfish1168

Can Keith be promised a job within management and the NHL be Ok with it if he retired today? Or that circumventing some NHL rule. It would be difficult to prove.

I would like to LTIR Smith at the very lease

OriginalPouzar

The league expressly prohibits giving early retirement players positions with non-market salaries.

No the league wouldn’t allow that.

I don’t think the $1.5MM would be the reason Keith decides to play, or not play. Of course, its big money but, for Keith, I don’t think it factors in to this decision – its all about if he wants to play and go through the work that is required.

flyfish1168

Agreed. With Keith, it’s about competition and wanting to win.