Lowetide.ca

BLASTS FROM THE PAST?

Lowetide — Wed, 22 May 2013 13:45:51 +0000

Craig MacTavish has some holes to fill this summer, and some of them are going to be expensive. Things like a top 4D and a 2line L will eat up much of the available cap space, and buying items like an improved 4line and a backup goaltender might have to be acquired via the bargain bin.

Which brings me to today’s thought: How likely are we to see former Oilers–warriors under MacT–return to the organization? There are a ton of candidates, as many of the men brought in during MacT’s time are still playing somewhere in organized hockey. Here’s a sampling:

Raffi Torres: I don’t think he’ll cost the moon, and would be a very nice addition. Raffi’s famous for lots of reasons, but strangely being an effective hockey player isn’t one of them. MacT would certainly know what he can bring.
Denis Grebeshkov: Still only 29, he struggled this past season with two KHL clubs but played well as a young man under MacT (with some growing pains).
Patrick Thoresen: Big time player now in the KHL, MacT liked him then, maybe he likes him now.

He also coached guys like Kevin Connauton and Chris Tanev in Chicago, so maybe they’re on the radar too.

–

The OKC Barons face the Grand Rapids Griffins starting this weekend in the next round of the AHL playoffs.

The story here (for me, anyway) is the number of prospects who are contributing to the team’s success. OKC coach Todd Nelson doesn’t give time away to prospects–as it should be–so legit prospects Taylor Fedun, Brandon Davidson, Anton Lander, Martin Marincin, Tyler Pitlick, Phil Cornet and Toni Rajala are all getting experience in a tough league and showing well.

Guys like Marincin and Lander may see NHL action next fall, guys like Rajala and Fedun are going to force the issue sooner or later, and guys like Pitlick are showing well after a long stretch of injury and ineffectiveness.

Good arrows.

–

Today’s Lowdown with Lowetide features:

Bruce McCurdy from the Cult of Hockey. We’ll talk MacT’s shopping list and possible options.
Kirk Luedeke from Redline Report Kirk has information on a lot of draft picks we don’t see (NCAA, USHL, EJHL) and will pass along updates. We may spend a minute or two on the Bruins as well.
Daren Millard from Sportsnet. We’ll talk Memorial Cup and NHL draft.
Rugby Canada has a big event this coming weekend in Edmonton, we’ll talk about the sport and its growth.
Jeff Krushell from Krush Health. We’ll talk baseball, surviving the NHL playoffs and a few other items.

Ten to noon on Team 1260.

RYAN WHITNEY RE 12-13: ATLANTIC CITY

Lowetide — Tue, 21 May 2013 23:15:18 +0000

Ryan Whitney arrived in Edmonton and tore up the blacktop for 35 games. Since then, it’s been a steep decline with no signs that encourage better days. Ryan Whitney is at a crossroads.

Ryan Whitney 10-11

5×5 points per 60: 1.58 (1st among Oil D, 2nd in NHL)
5×4 points per 60: 2.91 (3rd among Oil D)
Qual Comp: 3rd toughest among D
Qual Team: worst available among D
Corsi Rel: .6 (6th best among D)
Zone Start: 53.4% (3rd easiest among D)
Zone Finish: 50.6% (4th best among D)
Shots on goal/percentage: 43 shots/2 goals 4.7% (4th best)
Boxcars: 35gp, 2-25-27
Plus Minus: +13 on a team that was -52

Ryan Whitney 11-12

5×5 points per 60: 0.62 (4th among Oil D)
5×4 points per 60: 5.41 (1st among Oil D, 3rd in NHL)
Qual Comp: 5th toughest among D
Qual Team: 4th best available among D
Corsi Rel: -8.5 (7th best among D)
Zone Start: 51.4% (2nd easiest among D)
Zone Finish: 45.3% (7th and last among D)
Shots on goal/percentage: 41 shots/3 goals 7.3% (2nd best)
Boxcars: 51, 3-17-20
Plus Minus: -16 on a team that was -26

Ryan Whitney 12-13

5×5 points per 60: 0.71 (5th among regular Oil D)
5×4 points per 60: 4.25 (2nd among regular Oil D)
Qual Comp: 4th toughest among D
Qual Team: 2nd best available among D
Corsi Rel: -12.4 (worst among regular D) (-19.76 CorsiON, 3rd worst in NHL among D)
Zone Start: 45.0% (toughest among regular D)
Zone Finish: 46.9% (7th and last among D)
Shots on goal/percentage: 30 shots/13.30% (best among D–30 or more shots)
Boxcars: 34, 4-9-13
Plus Minus: -7 on a team that was -15

What do these numbers tell us? Once again, he was a shadow of his former self. He played bottom pairing most of the season and his Corsi numbers were a disaster. It was insane watching some writers and commentators expressing outrage when Tambellini couldn’t deal him for a 2nd. Ryan Whitney was not performing at replacement level–who would acquire him when every club has one or two guys in the minors who can basically do the same or better?
How can these numbers be better? His new reality means that Ryan Whitney is probably looking at a different spot on an NHL depth chart. I imagine he’ll perform better when he adjusts to his new style.
What does he do well? Headman pass. It’s beautiful.
When will this injury get better? You’re not paying attention.
Sorry, Marcus freaking Welby. Remember our audience.
Sorry, Quincy. Not there yet, and he was a coroner.
Sorry, Dr. Oz. Much better.
Look, he could get better. He could return to previous form. MacT said nice things about him. Yeah. MacT “Ryan Whitney: we’re all going to move on there and wish him all the best. He handled a pretty difficult situation fairly well I thought, he was always very complimentary to the city and the team. That’s not always easy to do, especially for a veteran that’s finding himself in a situation he’s very unfamiliar with. We’ll move down the road on Ryan.”
What does that mean in English: We’d like to thank Ryan for not getting caught in the hallway with a reporter, camera and a working microphone.
But Whitney took it well. Sure. Whitney: “This year, I was pegged in a spot as a fifth or sixth defenceman, battling to stay there … at some point it didn’t matter because I knew I wasn’t getting higher. First meeting with Ralph (Krueger) before the season, I was told I was in the bottom pair. It was set in stone. I got scratched a game against Vancouver, came back and played against Colorado and Ralph talked about a new start for me. I was with Jeff Petry, but for one period. I’d never mention a player’s name, but there were other players who could have been scratched at times, but never were.”
Wow. Who was he talking about? You’re kidding. You followed the team all year but don’t know who he was pointing at?
Fistric, Potter. Da.
That’s brutal. Da.
What’s the most damning thing you can say about Ryan Whitney? He had an unfortunate happenstance and it impacted his ability to play the game he loves.
You’re terrible at this. TRY! In a summer when Craig MacTavish will spend every waking moment trying to find a big, puck moving defender who can play defense, he did not hesitate to walk away from Ryan Whitney.
Why this song? It’s about a new day, except it’s all wrong and the die is cast and the hero is doomed. It’s doomsday, and all the characters know it.

SAIL ON PARDUBICE PRINCE?

Lowetide — Tue, 21 May 2013 13:30:53 +0000

Jim Matheson’s article about Ales Hemsky this weekend gives us a chance to discuss trade value. The idea of dealing Hemsky has been around for some time–there was a rumor he was headed to Nashville leading up to the deadline a couple of years back (for a 2 and a 4, apparently)–and the two year contract (plus the time to fulfill it) hasn’t really changed the lay of the land.

I wonder if Matheson either has inside info or has read the tea leaves (not difficult after MacT’s press conference), or maybe the organization has thrown out a trial balloon with the MacT verbal and Matheson is following things to their conclusion. Let’s review the exact wording of the GM:

MacT: “For guys who’ve been here a long time and have suffered through this (rebuilding process), Ales has been a good Oiler for us. I don’t want to talk about him. There is a human side and the last thing I want to do is talk about a guy’s future without talking to him first.”

Matheson’s article is here and quotes Craig Button as wondering if the Oilers could get a 2nd rd pick for him (the Cogliano deal as a comparable). I think that’s the one way Hemsky might end up in Edmonton this fall–if there’s no value, MacT is better off keeping him at least until the deadline. Hemsky’s not 40 or anything, and a strong first half might improve trade value (if that’s an issue).

I do think MacT’s words and then the Matheson’s article suggests the organization has plans to move on. I can’t marry the GM’s comments to anything other than “he’s not in the plans.” As convenient as it would be to blame Matheson for this summer’s Hemsky deal, Craig MacTavish is the one who’ll pull the trigger.

If Hemsky was in the plans, MacT’s verbal would have been completely different than the words above. Hemmer’s gone, it’s only a matter of time.

–

The French online magazine ‘Hockey 30′ suggests the Edmonton Oilers will go hard after Viktor Stalberg, with Montreal also in the sweepstakes. The magazine says the Blackhawks are focused on bringing back Bryan Bickell. Jim Matheson also has the story, along with a writeup on Bo Horvat.

–

Reports have Daniil Zharkov signing with Torpedo (KHL). I doubt that’s an Oiler endorsed career move, and wonder if it further weakens their attachment to Valeri Nichushkin at #7 overall.

–

Today on Team 1260 at 10, the Lowdown with Lowetide hits the air. We’ll have quite a bit of open line time, so I’d like your input on Hemsky. Is he worth keeping around? If they do deal him, what’s a fair return? Scheduled to appear:

Tyler Dellow from mc79 hockey. We’ll talk Hemsky, Taylor Hall at the WHC and Gareth Bale. Seriously.
Shawn Mullin, pbp man for the Swift Current Broncos. We’ll talk Memorial Cup.
Matt Gutsch from the U of A. We’ll talk football, golf and a few other things around the University.
Eric Rodgers in OKC. We’ll talk about the tragic and devastating storm in the Oklahoma City area yesterday.

Text 101260 and you can also tweet @Lowetide_ plus of course there’s the comments section here. I’m really thrilled with the response to the show so far, thanks for listening and giving your input.

We do have room for more advertisers now, if you’d like to join the fun email me at amitchell@astral.com and I’ll send you some information.

THE 2013 NHL COMBINE LIST

Lowetide — Tue, 21 May 2013 02:50:02 +0000

The NHL combine list is out today, and that gives Oilers fans a chance to preview what the scouts are looking at this year. Since 2010, Edmonton has plucked 17 names from the combine list, representing 63% of their overall list (17/27). 10 of the 27 selections in those three drafts came after #100 overall, and the Oilers have drafted only three players inside the top 100 in this period who did not attend the combine (Jeremie Blaine, Dillon Simpson, Erik Gustafsson.

The Combine invite list is here.

Corey Pronman’s top 250 is here.

I decided to cross check the two lists, assuming there would be massive cross over, and was surprised to find there’s a wide gap–even though Pronman’s is 250 deep! Now, I know there are some reasons for this (Corey includes re-entries, and he is very open about not covering off some of the tier 2 leagues) but the disconnect is massive.

Let’s begin with the players on Pronman’s top 100 that are not invited to the combine:

#45 L Anton Slepyshev Salvat Yulaev-KHL
#46 L Juuso Ikonen Blues-SM-Liiga
#50 L Peter Cehlarik Lulea-SEL
#55 L Viktor Arvidsson Skelleftea-SEL
#56 L Sergei Tolchinsky Sault Ste. Marie-OHL
#58 D Will Butcher USA Under-18-USHL
#59 L Taylor Cammarata Waterloo-USHL
#61 C Lucas Wallmark Skelleftea-J20 SuperElit
#74 L Tyler Motte USA Under-18-USHL
#77 L Anthony Louis USA Under-18-USHL
#78 D Wilhelm Westlund Farjestad-SEL
#80 L Tyler Hill Hotchkiss-US High School
#81 R Arturs Kuzmenkovs Metalurgs Liepaja-Belarus
#82 R Filip Sandberg HV71-J20 SuperElit
#84 R Sven Andrighetto Rouyn-Noranda-QMJHL
#86 C Miro Aaltonen Blues-SM-Liiga
#87 D Carl Dahlstrom Linkoping-J20 SuperElit
#88 D Jan Stencel Vitkovice-Czech Extraliga
#90 D Anton Cederholm Rogle-SEL
#92 D Ahti Oksanen Boston University-Hockey East
#95 D Niklas Hansson Rogle-SEL
# 96 L Trevor Moore Tri-City-USHL
# 97 C Tyler Kelleher USA Under-18-USHL
#98 D Emil Djuse Sodertalje-Allsvenskan
#99 C Greg Chase Calgary-WHL
#100 D Dean Kukan Tingsryd-Allsvenskan

Incredible. 26 players on Pronman’s list weren’t invited. As I mentioned above, some of them (like Slepyshev) are re-entries; only one is in the KHL but there are 9 from Sweden and that’s a pretty strong hockey country. What’s more, there are 6 USHL kids and another from USA high school hockey! I haven’t gone back to see if this has sustain year over year, but this seems like a lot of disagreement. It begins at Juuso Ikonen (he’s a 1995, small skill winger) who scored 13-13-26 in the SM-Liiga this season at age 17. Surprising result.

Now, we move on to combine invites that didn’t make Pronman’s top 100. Fortunately, since he goes 250 (!!!!!) deep, we have very few players without a number hanging beside their name.

Pronman has the following invitees outside the top 100:

#101: C Yan-Pavel LaPlante
#103: D Teemu Kivihalme
#104: C Adam Tambellini
#105: D Mason Gaertsen
#107: R Nicholas Baptiste
#108: L Gabriel Paquin-Boudreau
#110: L Zachary Sanford
#113: G Juuse Saros
#114: C Sean Malone
#116: L Remi Elie
#120: C Kurt Etchegary
#121: L Myles Bell
#124: C Avery Peterson
#127: G Erik Comrie
#128: D Mitchell Wheaton
#137: C Jeremy Gregoire
#149: D Tyler Lewington
#150: G Philippe Desrosiers
#160: G Spencer Martin
#177: D Spenser Jensen
#212: G Eamon McAdam
Not Ranked: L David Pope
Not Ranked: D Alexandre Coulombe
Not Ranked: D Dylan Labbe
Not Ranked: D Antony Florentino
Not Ranked: C Avery Peterson
Not Ranked: D Ty Stanton

And 27 going the other way (101 invites). Now, Corey has been up front about tier 2 stuff (he did say a scout helped him on Tambellini) and most of the guys who missed are taken care of by about 130. He doesn’t rank Pope or Coulombe, but that’s likely because he didn’t see them–I’d rather that than some weird slotting based on something other than valuable information.

Anyway, I’d like the NHL to invite 20 more Euro’s and 10 more Americans next year. That is all.

COLUMBUS CONNECTION

Lowetide — Mon, 20 May 2013 18:35:37 +0000

News making the rounds today that Ryan Johansen was ineffective during the AHL playoffs for Springfield. No big deal, except the GM (Jarmo Kekelainen) has gone on record so now it’s a full blown story and suggests there may be an opportunity.

First, the point has to be made that the Oilers were very interested in Johansen during his draft year. Second, although he’s been no screaming hell in the NHL, he is playing a tougher minutes role at a young age and surviving.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER–COLUMBUS C’S

You can click to enlarge, basically he’s playing some reasonably tough competition and it isn’t killing him (based on the Vollman).

He won 51.4% of his faceoffs, he’s 6.03, 203 and has played just over 100 NHL games (he’ll turn 21 at the end of July).

Boxcars: 40, 5-7-12 -7 84 SOG
3rd toughest qual comp, 3rd best qual team
Corsi Rel -5.4, that was 11 of 15 CBJ forwards
Raw Corsi On -11.36, 12 of 15
1.26 5×5/60, right at the end of the offense

Interesting player.

–

And now the news.

The Springfield center was (along with his team) having a terrible playoff series against Syracuse and the performance was so bad he was benched in game 4. The story is here, and the money quotes come from Jarmo Kekalainen.

“If you don’t earn it, you’re going to sit. The coaching staff didn’t think he earned his spot on the team, so he sat. This should be a good wake-up call for him. I think this is probably going to be a disappointment to say the least, maybe even a bit embarrassing. Hopefully he takes it the right way, gets to work this summer and shows us in the fall that he’s taken it to heart and he’s ready to earn a spot on the (Blue Jackets).”

Maybe this is a problem player, but maybe this is a reflection of the previous admin and they’ll flush him for less than 100 cents on the dollar. Worth watching.

LADISLAV SMID RE 12-13: NIGHT

Lowetide — Mon, 20 May 2013 14:33:30 +0000

Oiler fans have watched Ladislav Smid grow up before our eyes. When he arrived, he was overmatched, played like the backdoor play was a new item every night, and generally learned NHL defense in the NHL. One thing no one can ever take away: no matter WHERE he learned those lessons, Smid emerged from the exercise with experience, ability and execution. Not every young blue turns that corner.

Ladislav Smid 10-11

5×5 points per 60: 0.43 (6th among Oil D)
5×4 points per 60: 1.04 (6th among Oil D)
Qual Comp: 4th toughest among D
Qual Team: 5th best available among D
Corsi Rel: 2.3 (3rd best among D)
Zone Start: 48.6% (2nd toughest among D)
Zone Finish: 51.1% (2nd best among D)
Shots on goal/percentage: 48 shots/0 goals
Boxcars: 78gp, 0-10-10
Plus Minus: -10 on a team that was -52

Ladislav Smid 11-12

5×5 points per 60: 0.64 (3rd among Oil D)
5×4 points per 60: nil
Qual Comp: toughest among D
Qual Team: 3rd best available among D
Corsi Rel: -.6 (4th best among D)
Zone Start: 49.3% (4th toughest among D)
Zone Finish: 52.6% (best among D)
Shots on goal/percentage: 47 shots/10.6% (1st among Oilers D)
Boxcars: 78gp, 5-10-15
Plus Minus: +4 on a team that was -26

Ladislav Smid 12-13

5×5 points per 60: 0.30 (7th among regular Oil D)
5×4 points per 60: nil
Qual Comp: 2nd toughest among regular D
Qual Team: best available among regular D
Corsi Rel: -2.8 (6th best among regular D) (-13.27 CorsiON)
Zone Start: 47.9% (4th toughest among D)
Zone Finish: 51.3% (best among D)
Shots on goal/percentage: 30 shots/3.33% (5th among Oilers D>30 shots)
Boxcars: 48gp, 1-3-4
Plus Minus: -1 on a team that was -15

What do these numbers tell us? Shutdown pairing again this season, and again slightly in the red CorsiRel. Smid’s seasons show that he’s the best available shutdown LH blue on the roster, but he needs some help there (beyond Schultz the elder).
How could these numbers be better? I think we’ve established that Smid-Petry is NOT an above average 1st pairing, that it is the best available option, and that the duo should be fine for years if the club can cobble together another pairing of similar or better quality. I don’t know that asking more of Smid is the point–the turn north will have to include others playing at Smid’s level, not another gear for Laddy.
I think he needs to be better. Smid (with Petry) is playing the toughest opposition and as late as March held a Corsi Rel in the black. The only negative about Smid is what happens when the puck is in Oiler possession–his shot is not strong, his pass to forwards does not ignite the rush, his sorties up ice usually end with an awkward moment when he begins to look at options. Often, he skates himself into a corner, bringing the opportunity to an end. That can be solved with a calm pass to partner Petry, or a quick up to the center or a winger. Smid’s troubles are well down the list of Oiler worries, though.
Are you happy with the contract? Sure. Four year deal, $3.5M cap hit, wish they had another just like him.
He has those calm feet. Sure does, plus he has his act together overall. The stories surrounding him at the time of the signing were about finding his wife here, that her family lives here, it’s all about things that indicate someone who has his feet squarely on the ground. Important for a young team to have that guy.
Still, he gets beaten time to time. Yeah, sure. One of the things that has changed in our lifetime is the rules regarding interference and holding. The NHL rid itself of much of the new rules implemented after the first lockout, but obstruction fouls and holds are called closely. NHL defensemen look less effective to us, because they have to play within a set of rules our eyes compare to the olden days. Mistakes happen and can’t be covered up without penalty. Scott Stevens never played by this rule book. Ever.
He lacks a complete skill set. Offensively he’s lacking, but I’ll take that because he can play the tough blue minutes and come out the other side. Plus, he’s healthy. Coach Krueger should be able to write his name in pen, that’s a big deal.
Do the Oilers have another Smid nearby? The Oilers may feel they have a mobile defensive defender in Klefbom, but these guys take time to develop.
You always hated him. Smid and Petry. You sure can pick defensemen. Who do you like these days? Whitney? I think Smid and Petry are top drawer, but have long ago grown tired of watching defensemen learn their trade in the NHL. I’d had enough of it by the time the Leafs got Bob Neely, you can imagine how tiresome it is today.
Maybe you should have hated Pouliot. Poor Poo. That bastard never had a chance, what with you cheering for him and all. Are we done with Smid?
He blocks a lot of shots. Yes. Last year, his 184 blocked shots ranked him 7th among defensemen in the entire NHL and this year he blocked 119 and ranked 6th in the entire league.
Does he have a lot of hits? Finished 3rd in the NHL this season, with 151.
Is he the kind of blue MacT wants? I think so, at least most of Smid’s game matches up with what MacT talked about. Smid’s a mobile defender, does the dirty work, wins battles, blocks shots, hits people, clears the crease, comes to the aid of his teammates, can move the puck well, makes mostly good decisions, calm feet. Those are good things, and it’s a pretty long list.
Is he the best defenseman on the team? He’s the defenseman I’d most like to be on the ice in the Oilers zone with the game on the line and the Oilers without possession.
Just say yes. Yes.
I know you hate him. Why?
You’re most of the way through the RE, there are 2000 better Springsteen songs and you choose this dreadful song. This is a brilliant, overlooked song–and that’s one of the reasons I chose it for him.
Why this song for Smid? Lots of reasons. It is overlooked, it’s about a working man (certainly Smid is a lunchpail player) but it’s also about being young and getting out there and having some fun. There’s some real joy in this song, and Bruce doesn’t exactly throw good times around. Plus that giant sax is too beautiful to ignore, so I had to get it into the series. Plus I love the line “hell all day they’re busting you up on the outside, But tonight you’re gonna break on through to the inside” and it kind of fits. The sax is gorgeous in this song, just terrific. Also, the opening line is a throwback, kind of a Chuck Berry lyric: “You get up every morning at the sound of the bell.”
And Laddy is a throwback player? Yes. Absolutely.
Is MacT going to get another Smid for Schultz the younger? This summer or next, I believe he will.

MBS VS KP ROUND TWO

Lowetide — Sun, 19 May 2013 19:43:25 +0000

One of the things Oiler fans follow closely (more closely now after the #1 trio) is the entry draft. The first round pick is usually the marquee name, but there are gems after #30 and those picks can define a draft. In the case of Kevin Prendergast’s 2002 performance, that’s exactly what happened.

The first round is here. I gave MacGregor the nod (B+) over Prendergast (B) and it’s that close today–5 years after the 2008 entry draft. I’d say it’s about 88% to 84%–not enough clearance really to suggest one scouting group was clearly superior over another, but enough to give an edge to the MBS team (mostly because of Eberle). Hartikainen has had 5 years, and may still make it, but I think we can give credit for uncovering a useful prospect who pushed toward the NHL at this point in time. I’m satisfied keeping both grades as they were one year ago.

I think 5 years is a good amount of time to evaluate, so you may be asking why I’m doing 2002 versus 2009 today. The answer goes like this: although we have questions that remain about the 2009 entry draft, there’s enough evidence for us to “make the call” and then spending season #5 monitoring progress. If Anton Lander or Toni Rajala progress beyond where they are today, next year at this time we can adjust the grade before putting it in the books.

We begin.

KEVIN PRENDERGAST 2002

Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (1^stround) A swing and a miss here. Jesse Niinimaki was an enormous reach, one of the biggest in Oiler draft history (and baby that’s saying something). Niinimaki did show a lot of promise until a (Guy Flaming described it as “devastating”) severe shoulder injury 10 games into the 2003-04 season ended his year. Niinimaki was never really a threat to play in the NHL, in fact he played in only 24 AHL games, scoring 1 goal. My strongest memory of Niinimaki was his Hockey News ranking (#84) compared to his final draft number (#15)–if you’re going to make that reach, you better be right. Niinimaki is one of 4 2002 first round selections who never played an NHL game.
Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (2^ndround) Prendergast and crew clearly felt they could do big business in 2002′s 2nd round. How do I know? Kevin Lowe traded a good NHL player (Jochen Hecht) for two picks–#31 (Jeff Deslauriers) and #36 (Jarret Stoll). I’m not going to get into the issue of value for the player, or nicking the picks because it cost a good NHL player. That’s another conversation. We’re evaluating the draft board, KP’s job was to get good players. And he did. In the second round of the 2002 NHL draft, Prendergast selected Jarret Stoll (641 NHL games and counting), Matt Greene (466 NHL games and counting) and Jeff Deslauriers (62 NHL game and counting). That’s a great round–two NHL regulars over many seasons and a goalie who was good enough to get a long look and could still hang out at the shallow end of the NHL goalie pool. Would it have been as good without the Hecht trade? No. However, as we progress through this study, the shoe will be on the other foot (2010 the next example) so I think it’s wise to acknowledge Hecht’s importance, but to evaluate the draft based on the pure quality of the selections.
Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (3^rd round): Brock Radunske is very famous now, but did not have a long North American pro career. Chosen 79th overall, he played only 28 AHL games before becoming a legend in his time halfway around the world. I’ll always cheer for him, but can’t give the KP camp any counting points in this evaluation.
Success in what Devellano calls “projecting”: Jim Devallano: ‘We’re trying to determine if the player can get to the next level, that’s the real job. Most people can sit and watch a game and tell you who the best player on the ice is, but the good scout will be able to judge whether or not a player can go a step or two higher. We in the hockey business call it projecting.” I can’t give huge credit for Stoll here, because he was a draft re-entry and the Oilers knew what they were getting–in fact he went right to the AHL and established himself as an NHL prospect and actually played in the NHL the season he was drafted. I think we can give some credit for Greene; the club saw him good for the Green Bay Gamblers and then followed his progress through NCAA and eventually to pro. Although he’s never been a consistent 20-minutes a night defender, Greene is most certainly an NHL player.
Success in addressing team needs beyond the first round. Huge marks for the KP team here. They added a useful center who was close to NHL ready, picked up a big defensemen with good foot speed (always useful) and the top ranked NA goaltending prospect to boot. I’d say it was an extremely effective draft when viewed through this lens.

The second KP draft did not include a Hemsky-calibre big fly, but did produce an excellent 2-line center and a top 6 defender. The first round was an addled moment, and the picks beyond #100 (Ivan Koltsov, Jonas Almtorp, the illegal Robin Kovar, Glenn Fisher, Mikko Luomo, JF Dufort, Patrick Murphy, Dwight Helminen, Tomas Micka, Fredrik Johansson) produced very little (a total of 30 games, 3 for Luoma and the rest for Mighty Dwight). I don’t think there’s any reason to punish the scouting staff for a barren draft after pick #100, but it is worth noting that all 10 selections failed to make the grade. I did knock the grade down a significant amount because of the Niinimaki reach, however. Whatever the sins of a draft team, fanning in the first round should be met with release from employment. It it not forgivable.

This mark reflects: the lack of a top end talent like Hemsky; the poor first round decision and the solid second round.

Kevin Prendergast Grade: C+ (69%)

STU MACGREGOR 2009

Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (1^stround) The Magnus Paajarvi selection looked like a questionable ticket a year ago, but the young man has settled in and enjoyed a solid third year in North America. Wooguy’s excellent piece and the recent RE discussion reflect good arrows, to the point we can suggest he’ll be a productive top 9F next season and into the future. He ranks 11th in GP and points among his draft class, despite some struggles and time in the minors. Although he may not cover a #10 overall bet, I’m going to give the MacGregor group a full share of points for Paajarvi. We can review next spring.
Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (2^ndround): Anton Lander has played in the NHL, but I don’t think the scouting staff should get extra credit for it–the organization crushed on his improved footspeed and made a poor decision. On the other hand, he’s shown some glimpses of being able to put together enough offense (I think we see he has some value as a PK man already) and he could end up being a useful 4line player. That doesn’t really cover the bet, Lander at this point is a net negative in my opinion. There was value in that 2009 second round, it’s not certain the Oilers got enough of it. We’ll wait a year, but right now it’s a down arrow in terms of value. Not a Niinimaki miss, but not a full glass of Falcon either.
Success in the first 100 selections of each draft (3^rd round): A noxious third round and no hope of recovery. In 2008, the MBS group didn’t have a third round pick, but in 2009 they spent them on #71 Troy Hesketh, #82 Cameron Abney and (early 4th) #99 Kyle Bigos. That’s a miserable payback, and what’s more two of these selections were derailed soonafter the draft (Bigos remains a prospect of interest). I don’t want to overstate this–these are picks between 70 and 100–and the three misses here are not as criminal as the Niinimaki miss. Overall, however, it represents a missed opportunity on a pretty significant level. I’m hopeful MacT will move these types of picks back to the 4th and 5th rounds.
Success in what Devellano calls “projecting”: Jim Devallano: ‘We’re trying to determine if the player can get to the next level, that’s the real job. Most people can sit and watch a game and tell you who the best player on the ice is, but the good scout will be able to judge whether or not a player can go a step or two higher. We in the hockey business call it projecting.” I think they did a good job in projecting Paajarvi beyond his role before the draft, he had some offensive question marks but there was little doubt he’d play somewhere in the lineup once he adjusted to North American ice. I’m not able to give credit for the Lander selection, they clearly projected him to be a more offensive player and he hasn’t delivered.
Success in addressing team needs beyond the first round. Lander was a pick clearly made to address need, but the Oilers are still looking for centermen, and on a team with Nuge and Gagner they might not be looking so hard if Lander was more able offensively. I think we’re talking less ’2-way’ and more ‘shutdown’ and 4line C’s are more prevalant and less costly. I’ll mention the late picks (Toni Rajala, Olivier Roy) here and they could improve the final rating of this draft (both have shown flashes of brilliance this season). Still, there’s not enough proof currently to suggest they’ll peak out beyond AHL level during their time in the organization.

The second MBS draft did not include a big fly like Jordan Eberle, but did produce a significant talent in Magnus Paajarvi. Although his career progression this far isn’t at “Stoll level” it’s certainly plausible he’ll occupy a similar spot in the lineup as his NHL career evolves.* I think they’re comparable talents. The draft after Paajarvi isn’t much, not so far and we’re 4 years into the debate. Lander’s outer marker is probably a 4th line C who can PK and post 15-20 points a year. Does that have value? Sure, but it doesn’t cover #40 overall and there are lots of those guys available for just money every summer.

This mark reflects: the lack of a top end talent like Eberle, the Paajarvi first round selection (which I believe covers/will cover the bet) and the picks after Lander and their lack of value.

Stu MacGregor Grade: C (66%)

*Four years after his draft, Paajarvi’s NHL totals (163, 26-32-58) aren’t close to Stoll’s (220, 53-84-137) but it’s also true that Stoll was 20 on his draft day. Another way to look at it is this: Paajarvi’s totals at age 21 (163, 26-32-58) compare well to Stoll at the same age (72, 10-12-22). I don’t believe Paajarvi will have a 68-point season anytime soon, but Stoll had only one of those in his career.

–

I wanted to make a quick note in regard to the difference between these two seasons and the previous look at the 2001/2008 draft. I put a high value on getting top flight players like Hemsky and Eberle–there are none in either draft (that I can see, at this time).
One more thing on the Hecht trade/change in draft quality. Although I did not reference it above, the Oilers added picks in 2009 too, although much later in the draft. Edmonton traded Kyle Brodziak and a 6th rder (Darcy Kuemper) to Minnesota for the picks that turned into Kyle Bigos and Olivier Roy.
In doing this look at the two drafts, I was surprised to see just how much Matt Greene has fallen down the Kings depth chart. He was playing 16.5 minutes at evens and another three on the PK when he went over to LA, but his playing time has been steadily fading. I’m not sure if it’s the tremendous LAK depth, performance or injury, but this TOI erosion has been going on for some time.
Because of the above point, and Lander’s ‘in limbo’ status, I wanted to at least make a note about those two players. Should the gap between them (NHL regular, NHL fringe player) close, then it’s likely the overall grade will change when we discuss it next spring.

JEFF PETRY RE 12-13: BADLANDS

Lowetide — Sun, 19 May 2013 13:47:32 +0000

The Edmonton Oilers liked Jeff Petry’s game enough to send away Tom Gilbert when young Petry was 89 games into his NHL career. Since then, Petry (now 25) has been facing the best opposition available.

Jeff Petry 10-11

5×5 points per 60: 0.21 (8th among Oil D)
5×4 points per 60: 1.67 (5th among Oil D)
Qual Comp: 5th toughest among D
Qual Team: 7th best available among D
Corsi Rel: 2.0 (tied for 4th best among D)
Zone Start: 49.1% (3rd toughest among D)
Zone Finish: 50.5% (5th best among D)
Shots on goal/percentage: 41 shots/1 goal 2.4% (7th among Oil D)
Boxcars: 35gp, 1-4-5
Plus Minus: -12 on a team that was -52

Jeff Petry 11-12

5×5 points per 60: 0.91 (1st among Oil D)
5×4 points per 60: 3.25 (3rd among Oil D)
Qual Comp: 2nd toughest among D
Qual Team: best available among D
Corsi Rel: 2.0 (tied for 4th best among D)
Zone Start: 49.1% (5th toughest among D)
Zone Finish: 51.3% (2nd best among D)
Shots on goal/percentage: 111 shots/1.8% (6th among Oil D)
Boxcars: 73gp, 2-23-25
Plus Minus: -7 on a team that was -26

Jeff Petry 12-13

5×5 points per 60: 0.72 (4th among regular Oil D)
5×4 points per 60: nil
Qual Comp: toughest among regular D
Qual Team: 6th best available among regular D
Corsi Rel: -1.7 (5th best among regular D) (-12.49 Corsi ON)
Zone Start: 48.9% (easiest among regular D)
Zone Finish: 50.8% (2nd best among D)
Shots on goal/percentage: 66 shots/4.55% (4th among Oil D>30 shots)
Boxcars: 48gp, 3-9-12
Plus Minus: +1 on a team that was -15

What do these numbers tell us? The numbers (and the Vollman Sledgehammer) tell us Petry (and Smid) are the shutdown pair for this Oiler team. All things considered, they’ve done a pretty good job since Tom Gilbert was sent away, but they could use some help.
How could these numbers be better? Petry’s been facing toughs for over a year now, if the Oilers can ease the load he should thrive.
WHY did the Oilers trade Gilbert so quickly? Well, Smid-Petry were beginning to handle the load pretty well–this was before the lockout–and I do think that will be a good tandem for next season.
But not a top pairing? Well, I think they could handle a top 4D role, if the other “top” pairing could handle a little more of the load than the Schultz twins did this past season. The Oilers badly needed some relief because the third pairing contained an unmitigated disaster.
Did he play a lot? Led the team in EV TOI (17:57 per game), SH TOI (3:21 per game) and overall TOI per game (21:54).
Was he rusty from the layoff? Funny you mention it, I believe that had a lot to do with the difficulty this tandem had during the year. Petry just didn’t seem as sharp. Then again, Smid played in Czech and he didn’t look ready, either.
What do you like about him? Well, he’s an actual live, breathing NHL player for one. Remember the Al Arbour line about ‘get good players’? That’s Petry. We can argue over where he should be placed on the depth chart, but he can play. He’s healthy, has good size, can make that breakout pass very well, carry the puck and fly a sortie when the opportunity arises.
Is this where you say ‘wide range of skills’? Yes, actually. Petry has a complete player’s skill set, with the only complaints now being things like ‘he needs to be more physical’ and ‘he takes too many chances’; I prefer a player like Petry, whose positioning takes precedent over going for the big hit, and who will engage offensively at times.
Does MacT like him? I’m sure he does. MacT talked at his press conference about having defensemen getting to the puck and then moving it in a good direction quickly. That’s Petry. He’s a quick thinker, mobile defender and has the skills to make that pass, carry it out, or pause until the forechecker fades from the moment.
Was he Prendergast’s best draft pick? Hmmm. No. I think Hemsky, Jarret Stoll and Sam Gagner were better selections, but Petry is the best defenseman and certainly has a chance to move up the list.
Prendergast’s best pick outside the first round? No, I’d say Stoll. KP’s best second round picks were Brad Winchester, Stoll, Matt Greene, Petry. I think Petry is behind Stoll but ahead of the rest.
When are you doing the 2002/2009 installment of KP Vs MBS? It’ll be up later today.
Yay! This is the one where Prendergast kicks MacGregor’s ass! You’ll have to read it and find out.
You’re such a dink. Ask me about the song.
Why this song? It’s a great song for Petry right where he is, because despite having all kinds of talent he could be down on himself if listening to the wrong people. In life you have to believe in yourself, believe a better day is out there for you, and ‘keep pushing until it’s understood, and these badlands start treating us good.’
What’s ahead for Petry? Same part of the graph, same size bubble but a better color. I think he’s one guy we can count on, and his contract is a beauty.

NIKITA

Lowetide — Sat, 18 May 2013 20:58:15 +0000

I have a friend who grew up in the Kremlin. Seriously. I always tell people his story because it’s pretty cool. He loves Canada (except for the winters) and is an Oiler fan which I find to be a fascinating fact. After all, the Oilers are NOT aggressive in the Russian hockey market.

I’ve been reading Jim Matheson since I was a teenager. Matheson was writing long before many of you were born and can still hit the ball hard when the opportunity presents itself. Something tells me the recent management change might have opened up a trickle of information for the veteran newspaper man.

Matheson is writing some interesting stuff for draft fans, and specifically has his finger on the Oilers pulse as it applies to Russian defender Nikita Zadorov. The big man scored a nice goal on the PP last night, and does indeed appear to be that most rare of defensemen–a huge player (6.06, 230) with good foot speed. If the Oilers envision a shutdown LH defender who might be ready in the next 24 months, maybe they take him at #7. A few notes from Matheson, whose impressive article is here.

Stu MacGregor talking about comparisions between Zadorov and Ottawa D Jared Cowen: “There’s similarities. Zadorov probably skates a little better than Cowen, but Cowen has a real intelligence to his game. He’s a little more refined right now.”
More MacGregor on Zadorov: “He’s a big boy who moves pretty well.”

Matheson also sounds pretty certain of the Oilers interest, saying “the man-child Zadorov is definitely on the Oilers’ radar screen with the No. 7 pick. They’ll be watching him very closely, unless MacTavish deals the pick and they slide back about 10 spots, then the strong, two-way centre Horvat could be in play. Or maybe the goalie Fucale, who is in a group with Edmonton Oil Kings’ Tristan Jarry and Tri-City Americans’ Eric Comrie, who figure to go very early in Round 2.”

I believe they covet Sean Monahan, but are convinced Barkov will go #4 and Monahan will end up in Calgary at #6. Can’t say I disagree. speeds has a nice, reasonable argument on his blog in support of selecting Nichushkin for the #7 pick, but I think the Oilers grab the Russian playing in North America at #7 (unless Lindholm or Monahan are there, or they trade down).

Finally, I’m up to 15 now in my ongoing effort to rank the first round. This isn’t scientific (believe me) but does rely on Desjardins’ NHLE and other things that I’ve grown to believe indicate strong trends among draft eligibles. You’ll also notice some shuffling of the previous top 10, as I get a firmer grasp on exactly what we’re looking for. The last time I posted a list was here.

TOP 15 (SECOND DRAFT) 2013

L Jonathan Drouin: Moves up to #1, impact offensive player might be the best this decade. Willis convinced me.
D Seth Jones: I know defensemen are hard to predict, but there’s just too much talent to rank him lower.
C Sasha Barkov: This is such a deep draft, I think he’s got a chance to be something special.
C Nathan MacKinnon: Still a big fan, but for me the other three have the potential to impact the game more.
C Elias Lindholm: Overlooked talent, Stu MacGregor never mentioned him during the first round of 2013 draft talk with media. Counter trey?
L Valeri Nichushkin: Last guy on the board who could be an impact offensive player in the NHL. This is an insanely deep draft.
C Sean Monahan: I believe he is the Oilers target, the key tumbler for new GM MacT in terms of building up the middle.
D Rasmus Ristolainen: I stubbornly believe he’s the second best D option despite growing evidence to the contrary.
C-L Max Domi: A nice kick at the end puts him here. Talented hockey player. Who knew?
D Nikita Zadorov: Huge defender with speed, I don’t see the offense everyone is talking about but he can move and blocks out the sun.
C Curtis Lazar: Despite Bob McKenzie saying that Lazar was one of two prospects outside the top 10 to get more than one vote for the lottery edition, there are Oiler fans who believe he is a late first rounder. I don’t see it. With the understanding that he is not an elite offensive player, I’m not certain there’s a tremendous gap between Lazar and Monahan based on their TOI in the CHL. I’ve nicked him some because of rumors he’ll play as a RW in the NHL.
L Artturi Lehkonen: Finland produces an outstanding skill W who could be underrated at this number.
D Darnell Nurse: I’m officially not as strong on this player as pretty much everyone else. I just don’t see the offense. Good player, doesn’t get bonus offensive points from me.
L Anthony Mantha: I like him, dropped him down a little because Redline has thrown up some question marks.
C Nicolas Petan: I know, he’s very small. Don’t care.

JUSTIN SCHULTZ RE 12-13: BACKSTREETS

Lowetide — Sat, 18 May 2013 13:35:33 +0000

Along with the #1 overall picks, this era of Oiler procurement will be best remembered for the incredible: a real live impact defense prospect deciding to join the Oilers department of youth for an adventure. I still don’t think it’s hit us. (photo courtesy of Rob Ferguson. All rights reserved).

Justin Schultz 12-13

5×5 points per 60: 0.96 (2nd among regular D)
5×4 points per 60: 5.06 (1st among regular D)
Qual Comp: 3rd toughes faced among regular D (2nd pairing)
Qual Team: best available teammates among regular D (1st pairing)
Corsi Rel: -1.2 (4th best among regular D) (-12.19 CorsiON)
Zone Start: 48.1% (2nd easiest among regular D)
Zone Finish: 49.5% (3rd best among regular forwards)
Shots on goal/percentage: 85/9.41% (best among F’s>30 shots)
Boxcars: 48, 8-19-27
Plus Minus: -17 on a team that was -15

What do these numbers tell us? This is an outstanding talent (age 22) who should have a long and productive career. His puck handling ability is all world, his offensive creativity is off the map. He is a sublime talent.
That plus minus is ugly. In his first 19 games in the NHL, Schultz was 5-7-12, -4. In his final 29, he was 3-12-15 -13. I think chaos entered his game in a big way when he began to flag. That was a very long season, hell it ended for him late this week!
How was he at the WHC’s? 8, 0-4-4 +1 he played well from all reports.
His numbers weren’t very good. Have you been drinking? Offensively, Schultz ranked in a tie for 12th among defensemen in points, tied for 8th among blue in goals, tied for 7th in powerplay points among defenseman and he played 21:26 a night. As a rookie!
He didn’t get a Calder nomination. Yes, quite.
What happened? I told you above, he ran out of gas. Jonathan Willis tells the story early and late.
He sure did well in OKC. Did well here too, until the bottom fell out. The Oilers didn’t have enough depth because Ryan Whitney couldn’t play the big minutes so it fell to Smid-Petry, Schultz-Schultz to do all the work.
What happened? Second time you’ve asked. Playing NHL defense when everything is right is hard enough, playing on an empty tank must be a very difficult thing to do. Schultz played big minutes all year long (21:26 a night in Edmonton, my bet is much more in OKC) and remained healthy and from this angle there’s been a lot of try.
What’s the best thing you can say about him? Justin Schultz is the best young puck moving defenseman to land in Edmonton in 32 years.
Wow! Really? I believe so, yes. Those are ROOKIE numbers above, if he’d played 82 games at the same level the numbers would have been more impressive–he might have pushed 50 points.
What’s the record for points by an Oiler rookie defenseman? Listed below, he would have blown the doors off Gilbert’s total given 82 games.
Is he going to struggle with the defense? I don’t think he’ll ever be a shutdown defender, but he should be able to play regular top 4 EV minutes.
How did he do defensively last season? The Vollman Player Chart is below.
Good lord, what’s that? Well, I’m no expert but it looks like Ralph Krueger trusted two guys a lot, two other guys some, and then may have shut his eyes when the other three were on the ice. The good news is Schultz was in the second pairing, and his Corsi Rel was close to even par.
As a rookie. As a rookie.
What would you like to see for next season? Ideally the Oilers add a veteran LH defender (say Tyutin) and give him the mentor role to young Schultz. People are tired of Mark Streit’s being mentioned but I’d like him fine. Even better, if the Oilers could find a way to place him on the third pairing–that would be music! Third pair evens, first unit PP.
Speaking of music, why this song? It’s a coming of age song that begins with a tremendous bond of friendship (I don’t know if Terry is male or female) and commitment to it, and is the closest thing I can find to Schultz’s unusual and touching commitment to a future that is not promised. It’s also the best of Springsteen’s brilliant “overlooked” songs along with another one that’s coming later.
Based on this season, how good could Schultz be? He could be a cornerstone for this franchise for a decade on defense. An absolute piss cutter. I think the chaos at the end of the season has clouded the enthusiasm, but he’s a brilliant player surrounded by young men of similar quality. Justin Schultz was a gift, we’re just going to have to get used to the blessing and just how much he’s going to impact the future.

EDMONTON OILERS ROOKIE SCORING, DEFENSEMAN

Tom Gilbert (07-08) 82gp, 13-20-33
Paul Coffey (80-81) 74gp, 9-23-32
Randy Gregg (82-83) 80gp, 6-22-28
Justin Schultz (12-13) 48gp, 8-19-27
Marc-Andre Bergeron (03-04) 54gp, 9-17-26
Steve Smith (85-86) 55gp, 4-20-24
Dan McGillis (96-97) 73gp, 6-16-22
Kevin Lowe (79-80) 64gp, 2-19-21
Tom Poti (98-99) 73gp, 5-16-21