This is the August NHL equivalency for Oilers prospects one summer ago. I was looking at draft year through draft plus three, in case you’re wondering why some names are missing. The list boasts four men who delivered 35+ points as forwards and a defenseman who was just shy of 30 points NHLE at the time.
None of these gentlemen popped offensively at the pro level, although Broberg established himself as a capable third-pairing NHL defenseman. Among the forwards, who looks the most promising from here as a pure offensive force?
THE ATHLETIC!
- New Lowetide: Why skating ability has such an impact on NHL Draft scouting and success
- Lowetide: What Oilers’ Jeff Jackson hire could mean for front-office’s future
- Lowetide: The 5 most impressive NHL offseason moves and what they mean for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers sign forward Ryan McLeod to 2-year extension: What it means for Edmonton
- Lowetide: Connor McDavid, the Art Ross and challenging Wayne Gretzky’s record
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ pro scouting upgrade helped elevate team in 2022-23
- Lowetide: Projecting Oilers defenceman Evan Bouchard’s points for 2023-24
- Lowetide: Oilers’ graduate a strong group of prospects to pro this fall
- Lowetide: Oilers’ late-summer options intriguing with cap crunch and lingering UFAs
- Lowetide: What are the Edmonton Oilers’ keys to success in 2023-24?
- Lowetide: How Oilers’ veteran roster, cap issues could impact Raphael Lavoie
- Lowetide: What the Oilers are getting in 2023 NHL Draft pick Beau Akey
- Lowetide: Oilers’ baffling 2016 draft takes another hit
- Lowetide: Jay Woodcroft is (still) the right man to coach the Edmonton Oilers
- Lowetide: Oilers’ roster utility for 2023-24 could use a final tweak
- DNB: The Oilers roster is improved but evolution must continue into next season
- Lowetide: Edmonton Oilers top 20 prospects, summer 2023
- DNB: 10 questions with director of amateur scouting Tyler Wright
PROSPECT PROGRESS
This is the same graph for the 2022-23 season. Dylan Holloway should be done with the AHL for good and we’ll see about the second seasons for Xavier Bourgault, Tyler Tullio and Carter Savoie. Perhaps the most interesting forward is Matvey Petrov. I don’t believe he’ll own a 30+ NHLE at the end of next season (partly because Colin Chaulk handles the youngsters in an overly careful manner) but he probably gets to (or past) Bourgault’s transition total.
The Oilers need one of these men to spike.
LW Martin Rucinsky was drafted in 1991, age 20. He was close to NHL-ready playing 1991-92 with the Cape Breton Oilers (35 games, 11-12-23), but the Oilers employed Craig Simpson, Esa Tikkanen, Petr Klima, Martin Gelinas and Troy Mallette. If (say) Petrov spikes, the Oilers will make room for him, highly doubtful it will be this coming season.
LW Miro Satan was drafted in 1993, age 18. By 1995-96, he had demolished the AHL and was pushing for playing time in Edmonton. One problem. The Oilers were young and good on the wings. Ryan Smyth, Andrei Kovalenko (both scored 30+ in 1996-97), Marius Czerkawski (26 goals), Mike Grier (15), Todd Marchant (14, he also played center), Dean McAmmond (12) and Rem Murray (11) were all solid players. Satan couldn’t push up to one of the skill lines despite scoring 17 goals in 64 games, and he was dealt to Buffalo.
The Oilers need a Rucinsky or Satan, but the guy expected to deliver offensively (Bourgault, the first rounder) scored 13-21-34 in 62 games. Different eras, and not so far off the Rucinsky totals, but the young winger will need to spike in a big way with the Bakersfield Condors in order to vault into that kind of company.
It’s important because Edmonton needs inexpensive skill.
Matvey Petrov will play his rookie season in 2023-24 with Bakersfield. I predict he’ll play in (say) 50 games, scoring 14-18-32. That’s .64 pts-game, and would exceed the rookie numbers of Bourgault (.55), Tyler Tullio (.41) and Carter Savoie (.25).
I think Bourgault beats them all to an NHL job, but as a middle six option. As is the case with Dylan Holloway, I’m not sure the Oilers have acquired a top-six forward during the Tyler Wright drafting era. Two solid middle six wingers? There’s a big part of the story coming this fall.
I think Petry would be an upgrade over Ceci. He is better than Ceci in all facets and is still a sublime skater.
I would love to see a motivated Petry with the Oilers.. Ekholm is probably the better choice for a partner.
Raphael Lavoie. Pretty sure he’s been the most talked about Oiler prospect this summer.
He had a pretty mediocre ELC (in my estimation), though he definitely came on in the end. He’s also a bigger man then most. What does his future look like?
I looked for comparable players by looked at:
Big men: at least 6’3″ and 200 lbs (Lavoie is 6’4″ and 216)
Drafted in the entry draft
Age 22 (by December of their season; Lavoie turned 22 last Sept 25th)
Comparable scoring: 0.64-0.84 points/game (Lavoie scored 0.74 last season)
Played at least 25 AHL games in the season in question
Full disclosure: I was expecting the comparable to be quite poor when I started.
Here are 10 seasons worth of ‘big men’ who scored similarly to Lavoie (starting just before Covid hit):
19-20
Julien Gauthier – 6’4″ 227 153 14-18-32 in the NHL as of age 25 (Oct. birthday)
Nicolas Roy —– 6’4″ 207 228 40-54-94 in the NHL as of age 26 (Feb. birthday)
18-19
AJ Greer ——— 6’3″ 205 108 7-13-20 in the NHL as of age 26 (Dec. birthday)
17-18 (None)
16-17
JJ Khaira ——— 6’4″ 212 336 33-47-80 in the NHL as of age 28 (Aug. birthday)
Oskar Sundqvist 6’3″ 209 355 53-73-123 in the NHL as of age 29 (Mar. birthday)
Zach Sanford — 6’4″ 207 305 49-49-98 in the NHL as of age 28 (Nov. birthday)
15-16
Brett Richie —– 6’4″ 220 391 50-35-85 in the NHL as of age 30 (July birthday)
14-15 (None)
13-14
Carl Klingberg — 6’3″ 216 12 1-0-1 in the NHL as of age 32 (Jan. birthday)
12-13
Thomas Vincour 6’3″ 220 95 7-10-17 in the NHL as of age 32 (Nov. birthday)
Joe Colborne — 6’5″ 220 295 42-72-114 in the NHL as of age 33 (Jan. birthday)
11-12
Eric Tangradi — 6’4″ 227 150 5-11-16 in the NHL as of age 34 (Feb. birthday)
Jimmy Hayes — 6’5″ 216 334 54-55-99 in the NHL as of age 33 (Nov. birthday)
10-11 (None)
(though Pat Maroon missed the cutoff by 0.01 point/game; 729 111-171-228 career)
To be clear, this is everyone who met the criteria over 10 AHL seasons. I’m not cherry picking only the guys who made it to the NHL. 11 players in total (not including Maroon). All players who scored 0.64-0.84 points/game at age 22.
These aren’t top 6 forwards, but I’m a bit floored that almost all of them played pretty significant NHL games (or are trending that way – 7 of the 11 are still active).
Huh.
Very good work and much appreciated.
Hoping this kid is able to make it as a middle six winger but miles and miles to go.
He does have one real legit skill that could help him separate – its that shot and the ability to get it away from different angles and less than ideal places.
If he’s able to do that at the NHL level……
Yeah, with his shot he should definitely be “a threat to score at some point” (MacT) if he can do the other things he needs to do to be an NHLer (consistent, responsible, somewhat hard to play against).
How dare you equivocate the great Joe Colbourne to Lavoie?
Hehe, lofty I know.
Signing Colborne as a UFA won’t make the highlight reel of Sakic’s best moves.
Montreal wins and could win some more.
https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/how-canadiens-gm-hughes-can-maximize-petrys-value-after-re-acquiring-defenceman/
Strange how the writer casually points out that if the Habs retain 50% to get real value for Petry, they will have $2.35 million of dead cap on the books for 2 seasons (which is maybe not a big deal for year 1) without really comparing that to the fact that Hoffman’s salary would be gone at the end of this season. And a buyout of Hoffman would have been way better for cap hit purposes than a Petry buyout will be if that becomes necessary.
He also forgot to mention the part where Petry’s last season in Montreal was mostly terrible, since he no longer had Weber to tag team with. If he is not dealt soon, and plays for the Habs like his did for most of 21/22 this might not end up looking as good either.
I don’t think the cap matters much at all to Montreal with 3 more seasons of Carey Price and his $10.5 million cap hit on LTIR.
Considering Petry already demanded to be traded out of Montreal (and Canada) already, the Canadians merely acquired him to flip for a draft pick which should be determined by how much if any salary they retain.
So dumping Hoffman and Pitlick without retaining anything makes way for younger players and Montreal gets a pick TBD.
Montreal is going to be a real threat in 2-3 years. They have a couple of shrewd characters running the show.
Craig Morgan@CraigSMorgan
Matt Dumba’s actual AAV with the Coyotes is $3.9M for one year.
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bcurlock@bcurlock·3m
Matt Dumba just became an Oiler.
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Hehe, decent chance that’s true.
It will be interesting to see if Dumba rebounds this season. He was no better than Ceci (and in easier minutes) last year.
Dumba vs. Ceci if anyone is interested.
Usage and scoring, all at 5v5:
22-23
Ceci — 16:28/game, 37.4% vs Elites (1st on Oilers) 0.55 P/60
Dumba 18:24/game, 28.4% vs Elites (4th on Wild) 0.58 P/60
21-22
Ceci — 17:37/game, 38.2% vs Elites (2nd on Oilers) 0.90 P/60
Dumba 17:48/game, 34.6% vs Elites (2nd on Wild) 1.01 P/60
5v5 on ice results:
22-23
Ceci — 49.1SF% 48.7GF% 50.1xGF%
Dumba 47.7%SF 47.9GF% 48.5xGF%
21-22
Ceci — 49.9%SF 47.5GF% 50.7xGF%
Dumba 50.3%SF 48.8GF% 52.1xGF%
5v5 on ice results relative to team:
22-23
Ceci — -3.4SF% -6.0GF% -3.7xGF%
Dumba -1.9SF% -5.8GF% -2.4xGF%
21-22
Ceci — -2.7SF% -6.6GF% +0.2xGF%
Dumba -1.4SF% -14.0GF% -2.9xGF%
Probably important to add that Dumba played 80% of his time with Brodin as his partner, so like Ceci, he was playing with the top left D on the team. Like Ceci, his TOI was also heavy with top 6 Minnesota forwards. This is all to point out, Dumba’s somewhat lower results compared to Ceci were not a function of Minnesota not supporting him with good line mates.
And to add one more thing, Dumba w/o Brodin appeared to have awful results (possession and GF/GA), but Brodin did very well w/o Dumba. Ceci’s results didn’t drop much without Nurse at all, while Nurse’s results were somewhat better (possession similar but better goal share).
JP, you speculated that Dumba would get $3 million. I thought he would get less. You were right. I was wrong.
I had erroneously assumed he would go to a middling or decent team. I failed to consider that a bottom feeder would overpay him on a one year deal with the intent of flipping him at the deadline for a pick as Anaheim did last year with Klingberg or the Blackhawks have done with multiple players.
As the info that you and Redbird have shared, Dumba has struggled the last couple years. This is a significant overpay. Ceci is much better value at $3.25 mln, IMO.
Yeah Dumba has struggled for sure. I definitely wouldn’t swap him out for Ceci at the same price, never mind more.
He has had some good years in the NHL though. It’s possible his game shows some recovery, and I’m sure he can still help a team in a bit lower leverage role.
Yup – the grass is generally not greener elswhere.
Move Ceci and acquired: Mayfield, Dumba, Pesce, Petry.
The only true upgrade at this point is Pesce (I take Ceci over the soon to be 36 year old Petry with 2 years left).
Bourgault and Desharnais bundled up for Justin Barron would solve the RHD issue for a while. Barron is capable of playing 3 pair RHD this year and has 2nd pair RHD potential. Bonus is the Oilers could just about afford him even after the Bouchard signing.
Why would one do this until one tries Broberg?
Just to piss you off.
What a nice trade by Pens. Got rid of some serious duds and got Karlsson that even if Sid decides to call it a career during his contract they can retain 50% and jump start a rebuild
but that’s a lot of cap dumps they got rid of
And Lol to anyone thinking you are flipping Granlund
San Jose needs some veteran NHL forward help even if imperfect
I can’t even imagine the Oilers post Sather having that kind of horse dealing skills
They sure didn’t give give up much for a player of that stature, salary noted. And that Montreal got in there and dumped Hoffman is a beauty
Do you prefer Karlsson for 4 years at $10M to Ekholm for 3 years at $6M?
The price paid was quite similar.
Edit: certainly Dubas had to move more horses to get the deal to happen.
Ekholm scored 32 points.
Karlsson scored 101 points and won the Norris Tophy.
You could argue the Oilers don’t need the offense but it’s otherwise not even a question,
Well that’s a solid account of half the story. Nicely done.
Also not really my question, but keep on keeping on.
Definitely Ekholm, assuming health is equal. Firstly the cap and upcoming big contracts. Second, I think strong two way D contribute more than offensive one way D
The exception being offensive elites and Karlsson is. But for the Oilers having an elite defensive D adds more, they really don’t need more bat, they need more leather
Kevin Lowe getting Chris Pronger straight up for Brewer, Woywitka and Lynch then signing him to a good contract was an outstanding coup taking advantage of the new salary cap situation. Not as complicated as the 3 way that Dubas just did, but every bit as impressive.
That was all undone 12 months later of course, when Lowe did not show enough patience to get full value for Pronger going back out.
Pronger needed to leave town immediately. Lowe did Chris a solid just as Sather had done for a few players most notably Jason Arnott.
Pronger could catch a plane out of town and sit wherever he wanted. It was July 3. Training camp was over 2 months away. The draft had passed plus free agency had already been open for 2 days. Lowe probably could have shopped around a little longer as I am sure there would have been a lot of teams that would be willing to participate in a bidding war for a player who took the Oilers to the final. I am talking weeks of delay, not months. He carried on that level of play, winning in Anaheim and taking the Flyers there when he joined them in ’09.
Lowe is a smart man and made some good moves particularly in 05/06, but as a GM he had a stubborn streak (some say ego problem) that hurt him in cases like this one, the Comrie/Perry situation, the Ryan Smyth contract negotiations and a few others.
💯
The failure to demand value back for the then-best Dman on earth (ymmv) was the first shot fired in the DoD.
Again I believe Pronger wanted to not have to answer a million questions about his personal life in Hockey mad Edmonton while waiting for a trade all summer. Pronger wanted to go where no one would recognize him on the street. Anaheim was perfect for the Pronger brigade. Lupul showed so much promise but I think the nightlife got the better of him.
Yeah, I was going to say, the return looked pretty reasonable on the day of the trade.
-Lupul soon to be 22 year old former #7 pick who’d just scored 28 goals.
-Smid, a 20 year old former #9 pick who’d just played his draft +2 in the AHL and done well (he’d have still been in junior if he hadn’t been drafted out of the Czech Republic)
-2007 1st (Nick Ross, who never played an NHL game)
-2028 1st (Jordan Eberle, who’s now played 940 games and scored 648 points)
-2028 2nd (Travis Hamonic, who spent many years as a top 4 D and is closing in on 800 games)
Lupul was terrible in his one year as an Oiler, but he had some good years after. Smid was a fine enough player but not one who moved the needle. Eberle was a quality Oiler and NHLer, while the pick that became Hamonic was traded for essentially nothing.
Guess this is a cautionary tale about prospects and magic beans.
Sure on the face of it it was 4 first round picks and a 2nd for Pronger, though Lupul and Smid were 4 and 2 years post draft so the pro scouts should have had a better idea of their relative worth as players. Certainly years later in a redraft assessment, Smid’s stock would have fallen.
The Oilers didn’t keep the picks that were used on Ross and Hamonic. Ross and a 2nd were used to trade for the pick that netted Riley Nash. The pick for Hamonic was traded for Allan Rourke and Kirill Petrov, neither of whom turned into anything.
But the thing is Chris Pronger just lead the Oilers into the Stanley Cup finals, was one of the best all around defenseman in NHL history – (made the top 100 players all time easily) and was still playing phenomenal hockey even though he was 31. Eberle, Hamonic and Nash didn’t even start contributing to the NHL until 4 or 5 or 5 years after the trade (nor should they have been expected to as later first round/2nd round picks when drafted). So straight up on the ice, the Oilers went from Pronger to Smid and Lupul – an all world superstar who can carry a whole team on his shoulders, to 2 guys who had an upside of a good scoring forward and a solid D.
After taking the team so close to the promised land, Lowe should have been looking for a team willing to give up a significant star or two as part of the exchange kind of like what was attempted in the Weber for Subban deal or Seth Jones for Ryan Johanson.
Instead, after the excitement of getting the team all the way to the finals, as Mushed Peas said, he virtually guaranteed the need for a rebuild, which went on forever. Pronger leaving and allowing the downgrading of the current roster probably contributed to free agents not wanting to come to or stay in Edmonton almost immediately after Pronger left.
Yep – the whole 5 assets thing always bugged me. Magic beans for sure.
Luongo was traded that summer as well – Pronger for Luongo straight up would have kept the Oilers competitive for years. Instead they decided to hang to Roloson, who had previously had an Adin Hill-like career before catching lightning in a bottle.
Did you not remember the Gretzky sale and how it gutted the City’s soul. The Gretzky trade made the Pronger deal look like like Chicken Feed. No offence to Pronger as he would say the same thing. You would have to be behind the scenes say what you want about Lowe but the man bleed and still does the Oiler colours from the time he was a teenager until this very hour.
Yes, for sure the trade was always going to be a major downgrade in the present (Smid hadn’t played an NHL game yet, after all). And fair that it signaled a rebuild, though if they had lived up to their potential it could have been more of a lull.
More generally, it’s really damn hard to win a trade where you send away a top 100 player, so it’s no surprise that the long term outcome was a major loss for the Oilers. You need something like Lindros for multiple pieces including Forsberg for it to turn out as a net positive.
I believed at the time that the return was pretty decent though (accepting that the players and picks weren’t going to replace Pronger in the short term). In terms of ‘the scouts should have known’, that’s obviously fair to a large extent. Lupul and Smid both appeared to be trending well though. Lupul had just scored 28 goals as a 21 year old, and had a number of quality seasons after. His year in Edmonton was the worst of his career until his 30’s. And as a junior aged player, Smid had just had a strong AHL season (2nd in D scoring on a strong AHL team, 3rd in +/-). I’m not sure the scouts are guilty of incorrectly evaluating those two players.
I have long said that Lowe got a fairly good haul.
2 1sts, a 2nd and two high end young prospect (top 10 draft picks).
One of those “1st rounders” that Lowe should have known about had just scored 28 goals as a 22 year old.
Yes Lupul scored 28 goals in 05/06, but it wasn’t as big a deal as you might remember. That was the first year with the penalty crackdown and scoring was up by 20% over the last played season. Sixty players scored that many goals or more than season including guys like Peter Prucha and Marek Svatos, who were around a year older than Lupul.
And I am not saying Lupul or Smid didn’t have the potential to be solid players, but the team was going to be way weaker on the ice, all things being equal, for several seasons with a player of Pronger’s caliber being replaced by Smid, Lupul and draft picks who wouldn’t be in the NHL for several more years – end stop!
Esposito for Brad Park saw both players play very prominent roles on their new teams getting to the Stanley Cup finals (to lose to the Canadiens in all cases). Chelios for Savard wasn’t a good player result as Chelios was a massive overpay for Savard, but Savard did win a cup with the Habs (from the press box in the last game), and Chelios went on to win cups with Detroit, not Chicago. Chelios didn’t ask to be traded, but the Habs needed him to go.
I fully agree its a very good haul if your plan is to start a rebuild, but again, the team has just gotten to game 7 in the Stanley Cup final. What a gut punch to the fans and the remaining players, several of whom were free agents and chose to sign elsewhere within weeks of the trade (Peca, Samsonov, Dvorak, Spacek). Maybe they don’t sign even if Lowe brought back players who were already very good established players, but we’ll never know. Pronger had to go, but Lowe made the wrong strategic decision on which way to take the team when faced with that dilemma and it blew up in his face.
Yes, that’s certainly fair.
I didn’t see this mentioned anywhere else but according to Capfriendly, PIT retained $1.56 mln on Petry for 2 seasons which offsets the $1.5 mln (4 seasons) that SJS retained on Karlsson.
Interesting twist – I think Montreal did pretty well on this trade, but not sure what they will do with a 3rd goalie.
Montembault in Laval,
I could see Bourgault pressing up for a mid-season call-up but I have a suspicion that Ty Tulio will also put himself in that conversation.
Those guys have some “veteran experience” to beat out for call up: Pederson (likely), Caggiula, Malone, Griffith.
I can’t wait to watch Petrov nightly and get a better idea of the type of player he is and his potential. Can’t say I’ve watched him play all that much but from what I’ve seen and read and heard, he has legit top line goals scoring winger potential. Of course, that’s the ceiling and he may never be more than a tweener but I think he’s got the highest production ceiling of all Oilers drafted prospects.
I agree that Chaulk handles the kids “carefully” but would say that its also making them earn his trust and, once they do, he does give them opportunity in higher leverage situations.
Tulio got PP1 and top 6 when he was playing well.
Philp went from 4RW to 4C to 1C at times.
He’s got a great NHL top 6 skill set, and size, it come down to if he has the desire to stick in the NHL, and the discipline to do what he needs to get better at
Here is hoping that the coaching staff plays him as such (at least as such as he could press up if given the opportunity) and in a 3 pairing/6D set-up.
Until I see otherwise in October, I will continue to remember that the last time the Oilers played a hockey game, the coaching staff favored Vinny over Broberg.
What a great stretch in Oil Country:
1) McLeod gets done on what should be a solid value deal for the team for two years.
2) I can’t think of a single negative on this Jackson CEO hire.
3) We can finally put the Erik Karlsson to Edmonton talk to bed – never made sense to me (that’s just my opinion, others have differing opinions and they are all just opinions). I don’t think there was ever any real traction, even back in the February when there was more talk about it.
Karlsson the player would benefit any team except maybe the Avs bcs Makar
Karlsson the 9M contract, not the Oilers
Yup.
Elliotte Friedman
@FriedgeHNIC
Hearing Matt Dumba closing in with Arizona, one year at approximately $4M
If Karlsson couldn’t come to Edmonton (at the right price in terms of cap and players), I am glad he went to the Eastern Conference. And if Karlsson helps switch the balance of power in the East so that the Pens can get back to the Stanley Cup final, and Edmonton can do their part in the West, wouldn’t that be a fantastic cup final? From an entertainment perspective, I doubt any one could project a better match up: Crosby/McDavid and high powered offenses.
Agreed, that would be very cool.
And fun fact: Mattias Ekholm is 7 days older than Erik Karlsson, and Karlsson is the youngest member of the Penguins core by almost 2 years.
I might consider Guentzel to be part of the Pens core as well. Depends on how broadly you define it, but he is at least their 3rd best forward (and it is debatable who contributes more today 28 yr old Guentzel (once his ankle heals) or 37 yr. old Malkin). We’ll see if Dubas agrees if he is part of the core, as he has to deal with Guentzel’s contract renewal this season.
Yes, for sure Guentzel could be considered part of their core depending how you define it.
With respect to Holloway, Bourgault or any other prospect on the team, whether they are capable of being a top 6 forward on the Oiler’s or in the NHL in general are two different questions. The Oilers have one of the best, if not the best top 6 in the NHL. No team in the NHL can match up against McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman and Kane as a top 5. Everyone of those players would be in the top 6 on pretty much any other team in the NHL. Now they have added Brown, who is a veteran top 6 player to the mix. The top 5 are here for the next 2 seasons at least (Leon extension needed) and probably longer.
On the Oilers, prospects are fighting for 1 spot over the next season or two against Brown, with hope that down the road 2-4 years, they are the replacements for Kane or pushing Hyman and Nuge down the line up. Hard to say without injury problems if Puljujarvi (hips) or Yamamoto (neck, head concussion ?) whether the Oiler top whole 6 would have stayed more solidified for a while.
It is not quite the 80’s Oilers, with 4 hall of famers patrolling the top 6 for 7-8 seasons, with guest appearances by a series of veteran players over the first several years, till Tikkanen came along in 86/87 as the first Oiler prospect to join and stay in that group. Walt Podubny, up to when he was traded, couldn’t get into the Oilers top 6. He certainly was top 6 after leaving the Oilers. Hard to say if he was the right fit to get there with the Oilers.
Maybe some of these prospects will end up being trade chips for a better fit like Schaeffer in a package for Ekholm. Walt Podubny was turned into Laurie Boschman who was turned into Willy Lindstrom who helped the Oilers win the first 2 cups.
History side note – the Oilers lost Lindstrom to Pittsburgh off waivers in the fall of ’85, which completely surprised Sather. He even tried to get the Pens to trade him back. Lindstrom retired 2 seasons later before Pittsburgh got back to the playoffs again but he does get to say he is probably the only player to have played regularly on a line with Bobby Hull, Wayne Gretzky and Mario Lemieux.
I think the Oilers top 6 is really good, but calling them the best would depend on what you use as a measure
For me that they aren’t utterly dominant in the heart of the game is an issue. A big one, that has held them back from where they could be. It’s the reason they couldn’t take out the Knights, which didn’t surprise me once the series started and I saw how they were going to try to play them
Winning the series was definitely possible even with the injuries with the right approach
This is all true, 5 of the top 6 are locked in.
At the same time, if the likes of Holloway, Lavoie, Bourgault push up the lineup, the benefit of having a Hyman or a Kane down on the 3rd line seems obvious to me – in particular noting the Kane is now 32 and Hyman 31.
Wow, that Karlsson trade is bad for SJ on a number of levels. I checked the numbers and found that they’re actually spending more money doing this than they would’ve been had they just retained 50% and maximised their return.
Granlund: 6mil this year, 5mil next year
Hoffman: 5mil this year
Rutta: 2.5mil this year, 2.5mil next year
Total of 21mil
Compared to 50% retention on Karlsson’s contract coming out to:
5mil
4.75mil
3.9mil
3.25mil
Total of 16.9mil
Not only does it not really make financial sense, being unwilling to retain 50% massively limited the market and, as such, the return. I think Karlsson at 5.75mil could’ve garnered at least an extra 1st and B prospect and maybe more.
Even if I assume that their plan is to flip these players at the deadline, both Granlund and Hoffman are likely to require cap retention in order to move which would also take away from their ability to retain on other potential deadline deals.
The more I look at this, the worse it looks. Am I missing something?
EDIT: I only just saw that they actually retained 1.5mil of the contract. Gonna have to re-run the numbers, but this still doesn’t look pretty.
Makes perfect sense for San Jose.
Hoffman comes off the cap at the end of the season.
Granlund should be able to be flipped at the deadline since his cap hit will be peanuts but, if no takers, he will be a cheap, easy buyout next offseason,
The key was the small retention on Karlsson which limits the immediate return in draft capital but works much better long term for the Sharks.
Yeah it was 13% retention, looks like. They got out of $10M for Karlsson’s last 2 years (all the contracts they took on end in 2 yrs). And got a 1st round pick out of it.
I expect Grier is happy enough. Hoffman, Rutta and Granlund should all bring something back as deadline rentals too.
In my eyes, the only way to even begin to justify this is if they’re trying to contend in what would have been years 3 & 4 of Karlsson’s contract. However, given their paltry D corps and unimpressive D prospect pool (Shakir is their only really quality D prospect), I don’t really see that being a reachable goal.
I don’t imagine Hoffman returns much of anything (maybe a 3rd if they’re lucky and retain 50%) and I doubt Rutta brings much of anything. That leaves their hopes for any substantial return on Granlund and, for him to do that, he’d need to bounceback quite a lot. Not impossible, but I don’t think a weak team is the best place to do that. If they retain on two of them, how much value do they lose from not being able to use those retention slots on Barabanov, Labanc, or any of their other likely deadline trades?
See my other (newer) post. SJ got out of $9M in real money and $10M in cap in years 3-4 (agree it’s not clear whether the cap will be useful or not).
They also got a 1st round pick at least, and I think all 3 players they acquired will bring back some sort of deadline return, even if it’s modest.
Having run the numbers after catching that they retained 1.5mil, the totals come out to ~26mil compared to 19.5mil. Since they’re retaining anyway, there’s also even less potential for value to be extracted from the filler they brought in or existing roster players.
What’s the $19.5M? Karlsson’s actual salary over the next 4 seasons is $40M.
13% is about $5M. So SJ got out of paying Karlsson ~$35M, in exchange for taking on $26M. Their cap situation will also be far better in years 3+4 with him going gone (not sure they will be competitive enough by that point to spend, but this opens that option at least).
My calculator brings up 39mil which 19.5mil is half of.
My point is that they would’ve actually been able to save 19.5mil instead of just ~9mil while also getting a much more substantial return. The cap hit would’ve extended an extra 2 years, but a notably bigger return seems entirely worth that for a team in their situation.
Of course, these calculations can’t factor in what they’ll potentially acquire and save when/if they trade Granlund, Hoffman, and Rutta but there’s also no guarantee they’ll be able to move any/all of them.
My apologies, I read your first post too quickly (ie – misread). You are likely correct that they could have gotten a larger return, and maybe saved more real money by retaining 50%.
I’d guess Grier hopes to be moving towards being competitive by year’s 3 and 4 (so the saved cap may be useful). And it’s also possible ownership was unwilling to simply eat that much money. Whatever the case, there is definitely an argument that retaining 50% would have been a better move.
Grier doesn’t care about the next two years. He’s looking 3 years out.
This exactly.
At that point, he has only 6 players currently under contract and an estimated $60 million in cap space…even before considering dinosaur buyouts.
When you account for era scoring Rucinsky as an AHL rookie is an almost perfect comp for Bourgault. Drafted in almost the same spot too.
Hopefully Bourgault has a strong 2nd year and pushes into the same ballpark, though you could be right that he settles in as more of a ‘middle 6’ (which is not a bad thing either).
@frank_seravalli
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14m
Sources say San Jose Sharks have traded D Erik Karlsson to Pittsburgh Penguins. Working on details.
Full trade:
To Pittsburgh Erik Karlsson, SJS 2026 3rd Rd Pick, Dillon Hamaliuk, Rem Pitlick
To Montreal Jeff Petry, Casey DeSmith, Nathan Legare, PIT 2025 2nd Rd Pick
To San Jose PIT 2024 1st Rd Pick, Mikael Granlund, Mike Hoffman, Jan Rutta
Nice work by Dubas.
Penguins only $79K over the cap without using any LTIR money.
https://twitter.com/penguins/status/1688213357734641664
Have to agree that’s a nice trade for Pittsburgh. Dubas moved mostly bad money for Karlsson and didn’t give up as many futures as I figured it would take.
I guess this is win-win. Grier got rid of almost all of Karlsson’ cap hit, added some picks and some players who aren’t junk.
Jeff Petry can’t be happy about this
He and his family couldn’t wait to get out of Montreal – you have to think Kent Hughes is looking to move him along before the season starts
He apparently didn’t put them on his 15 team list (my understanding is that players submit a new lest every year). Maybe it wasn’t so bad there?
Yes, you’re right about the no trade list- perhaps he thought a return trip to Montreal was a remote possibility so he didn’t put them on his list
We’ll see- the scuttlebutt on the internet was he was happy to move along the first time around
Sounds pretty fickle, if he complied a list of 15 teams and still has more he doesn’t want to go to! 🙂
Ceci and a later pick or lower prospect for Petry with retention. Ceci Foegele for Petry and retention and go long with Bouch. I prefer #2 and trust Bro in 3LD, add some depth to the farm for cover, what’s supposed to be easy part
Petry is not what he was but a far better stylistic fit with Nurse, is better than Ceci, more mobile and not smaller. A slight upgrade is still an upgrade, in a very key position
I liked Petry a lot in his prime, I have no idea what(if any) he has left in the tank, or if he is an upgrade on Ceci
Perhaps Lavioe meets your ‘prospect’ criteria and Jake Evans comes back in the deal, but obviously the money has to work
The grass is not always greener.
I was one of Petry’s bigger fans when he was an Oiler and was not happy when he was traded but he’s turning 36 this calendar year and has another year left.
I don’t think this upgrades on Ceci over our cup window.
I also imagine that Edmonton IS on Petry’s 15 team no trade list.
The post’s title sounds like a buddy cop movie:
“He’s a Czech hotshot from the mean streets of Prague. His partner…is the PRINCE OF DARKNESS!!”
No wondering who the bad cop is in this dynamic.
Also starring the wily veteran Captain Visnovsky, who is getting to old for this s**t.
Good to hear from you Tarkus. It’s been a while.
New for The Athletic: Why skating ability has such an impact on NHL Draft scouting and success
https://theathletic.com/4740450/2023/08/06/nhl-draft-skating-ability/
I get asked many times by colleagues with young kids what hockey program they should put them into here in Connecticut when these kids are 3-4 years old. I tell them don’t waste your money, send them to skating programs. When they are 6 and can skate like the wind, they will blow the doors off those kids who have been playing hockey for 2 years. That is the great differentiator, the better skater is the better hockey player.
This is so true. When prospects don’t pan out it seems usually their skating ability doesn’t match their physical profile for what works in the NHL. There are few players that are so much smarter that they overcome that, Ryan is one
Guys like Des have a little leeway on quickness etc, a little, because of reach. If you are shorter or lighter for position you have to be a top end skater to remain effective. There are always exceptions but most players aren’t that
We all love Nuge but he’s a good example. Yes he had a great season, but he’s been shy on offense especially 5v5, and to me it’s because he’s not explosive. He’s got great edges but the lack of top end speed and getting to it quickly limits his skill. Open ice and more time on the PP, no problem
This is so true. When prospects don’t pan out it seems usually their skating ability doesn’t match their physical profile for what works in the NHL. There are few players that are so much smarter that they overcome that, Ryan is one
Guys like Des have a little leeway on quickness etc, a little, because of reach. If you are shorter or lighter for position you have to be a top end skater to remain effective. There are always exceptions but most players aren’t that
We all love Nuge but he’s a good example. Yes he had a great season, but he’s been shy on offense especially 5v5, and to me it’s because he’s not explosive, and he’s not a big fella for the NHL. He’s got great edges but the lack of top end speed and getting to it quickly limits his skill. Open ice and more time on the PP, no problem
Speed is king and will keep a player like McLeod in the league for 10–15 years. In saying that Goal scoring is paramount front net presence combined with hands Tkachuk, Ryan Smith, Craig Simpson, Dave Andreychuk, Tim Kerr, Clarke Gillis, Charlie Simmer to name a few. The game has definitely speeded up but if you have hands and your office is in the toughest area on the ice you will have a place in this league.
True that’s why I said skating profile has to match physical profile. If your a beast with hands you do t have to be as fast, just NHL level skating
If you’re not assertive and 190lbs you better be real fast and agile
Of note, Nuge tied for 56th in 5 on 5 points (53rd among forwards) this past season – tied with Gaudreau, Fiala, Scheifele, Eichel.