White Light-White Heat

by Lowetide

We listed the defense yesterday, and today we’re going to do the forwards. Warning: This is exactly what one would expect until we hit the streets of Bakersfield.

THE ATHLETIC!

EDMONTON OILERS DEPTH CHART (F) 2023-24

  1. LC Connor McDavid. The captain winning Stanley as an Oilers megastar is inevitable, the only thing left is the script and the joy that follows. McDavid is now an icon, with stories weekly like “no one wants to let him down” and “he’s so driven it catapults everyone to a new level” just as it was in my youth when reading about Orr (and later, Wayne Gretzky).
  2. LC Leon Draisaitl. The brilliant big man has tailored his game to both complement McDavid and stretch himself as a solo artist. I worry about his goal share, it’s just past 50 percent at five-on-five. He did post another top flight playoff number (56 percent). You’ll go a long time before seeing another impact player reinvent himself so many times early in his career. Draisaitl is special.
  3. W Zach Hyman. He isn’t the third most valuable forward, but his performance and utility have him here. Hyman’s 2.37 pts-60 at five-on-five ranked him No. 3 on the team and his 56 percent goal share also shone like a diamond. He was played heavy minutes with 97, but delivered in a big way.
  4. LW-LC Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Exploded offensively a mere 12 seasons into his career. Depending on the names you believe played in the shadows of greatness, Nuge might be one of the two best players in team history to both thrive over many seasons and never be considered the best player on his team. A valuable piece in all game states.
  5. LW Evander Kane. He suffered two significant injuries last season and I think there should be some concern about his returning to previous levels. I have no doubt he can score, his 1.31 goals-60 at five-on-five was impact level a year ago. Kane needs to contribute to an outscoring line. I believe he will.
  6. RW Connor Brown. A bit of a wildcard due to injuries, Brown could be a strong addition if he’s healthy. He has enough skill to be an effective player with skill and he’s a good forechecker and runs out every ground ball. The player will help if he can stay in the lineup.
  7. LC Ryan McLeod. An excellent campaign solidifies McLeod as one of the foundation pieces (No. 3 center) on the Oilers roster. His 1.86 pts-60 is very respectable considering his quality of linemates. The goal share five-on-five (55 percent) makes all former coaches since 2015 weep because Todd McLellan never had that kind of the a third line. He’s a valuable player.
  8. LW Warren Foegele. He earns this ranking due to a strong season and the possibility of an elevated role. Foegele’s 2.09 pts-60 at five-on-five is strong and could earn him top-six time. His goal share in the discipline 57 percent is brilliant if a little lucky. The organization’s loyalty to him in the face of an easy cap out (they could trade him and run a complete roster) suggests management sees him in a positive light.
  9. RW Derek Ryan. If this was 1975 Ryan would be a Montreal Canadiens center-winger. Smarter than most of the coaches he’ll ever play for, Ryan has relevance in every game state but the power play. Maybe they should try him there. A 57 percent goal share at five-on-five last season.
  10. LW Dylan Holloway. Edmonton badly needs Holloway to deliver something close to 30 points this season as well as playing on a 50+ outscoring line five-on-five. I have zero doubt he can play but the offense needs to emerge and he needs to iron out the ills of youth.
  11. LW-LC Mattias Janmark. Janmark is a solid two-way forward who can play all three forward positions and has enough offense to play every night. He did not have as fine a season as Ryan (49 percent goal share five-on-five) but he can help a team win.

THE RECALLS

  • No. 12. LW Raphael Lavoie (22): Another strong season in Bakersfield, I think he makes the NHL team.
  • No. 13. RC Lane Pederson (26): He’ll split time between Edmonton and Bakersfield.
  • No. 14. LW Drake Caggiula (29): I think he might play in Edmonton for a time.
  • No. 15. LC James Hamblin (24): Recall option.
  • No. 16 RC Brandon Sutter (34): A complete wildcard.
  • No. 17. RW Xavier Bourgault (20): I think he’ll spike over full AHL season. 20 goals, 45-points pace.
  • No. 18. LC Brad Malone (34): Veteran could bring physical presence if recalled.
  • No. 19. LC Greg McKegg (31): Solid two-way play, something we saw in the later part of the year.
  • No. 20. RW Seth Griffith (30):  Unlikely recall, he’s a winger over 30 and eroding. Still a good player.
  • No. 21. RW Tyler Tullio (21): I don’t think he’ll score 20, but will go past 30 points. Not a recall option.
  • No. 22. LW Matvey Petrov (20): If he gets solid EV and PP time, 15 goals as an AHL rookie.
  • No. 23. LW Carter Savoie (21): He should have a breakout season if healthy. 20 goals.
  • No. 24. RC Jayden Grubbe (20): Mature and has size (6.03, 200). Checking role. 20 AHL points.
  • No. 25. RW Jack Chiasson (20): He may have a tough time winning playing time.
  • No. 26. LC Carl Berglund (23): College grad, he will see depth minutes, possibly ECHL time.

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Ryan

NHL Sid fighting the good fight on Twitter against JFresh about Draisaitl vs Mathew’s and Mackinnon.

https://twitter.com/NHL_Sid/status/1695123588469395670

I will take a look at this a little later. I certainly agree with NHL Sid. I’ve always learned that quality of teammates matter the most and the Oilers have never really had six legit top six players.

When Draisaitl is playing away from McDavid the qualteam is a lot worse than who Mac and Matthews play with.

There’s certainly other factors people have pointed out in the thread like Campbell’s goaltending or Draisaitl and Decembers.
The TOI gap is narrowing but Draisaitl still plays a lot more than Matthews.

Ryan

Worth noting, that last season, Draisaitl took 300 more face offs than Mackinnon and more than 400 more than Matthews.

What’s also pretty funny. At the Athletic, I keep reading about Matthews is the next Bergeron, a player who’s made massive strides in his attention to the defensive side of his game, but…

Dzone face offs, last season.

Draisaitl: 474

Matthews: 245

MacKinnon: 332

Bergeron 586

Clearly the Leafs’ coach trusts his defensive ace like Bergeron, 😂

I can’t seem to find shift data (shifts per game) nor teammates that Draisaitl plays with when he’s not with McDavid.

Because Draisaitl takes so many high leverage face offs, I suspect that further erodes his qualteam like if he’s thrown over the boards to take a draw and play with whoever’s on the ice.

Last edited 7 months ago by Ryan
BornInAGretzkyJersey

Great post, but is this where the “appeal to authority” criticism comes in with regards to the coaching deployments?

Ryan

The coaching deployment discussion was just me chuckling as an aside. It’s not primarily to the main discussion of Draisaitl vs Matthews.

Put it this way, I’m a Draisaitl fan.

From the Leafs’ fan perspective, their argument sort of goes… Matthews is still better than Draisaitl even though Draisaitl kicked his ass with points while Matthews fell off the cliff because Draisaitl relies on McDavid and Matthews has this elite defensive prowess to his game…

Except Matthews doesn’t kill penalties or take defensive draws. Draisaitl does both.

Harpers Hair

You may want to consider that Draisaitl takes a lot of faceoffs because the Oilers bottom 6 forwards are poor in that discipline.
Ryan McLeod is consistently below 50%

As I recall, he is often sent out to take defensive zone draws and then leaves the ice.

Harpers Hair

Worth noting Bergeron took a total of 1706 faceoffs last season…John Tavares took 1245 and won more than 58% of them.

Toronto has lots of options while the Oilers are more limited especially without an ace 4th line centre.

Harpers Hair

The Leafs acquired David Kampf specifically for his faceoff prowess.

Last season, he took 1147 with a win percentage of near 52%.

Ryan McLeod 598…48%.

I don’t think you can use faceoffs as a proxy for defensive prowess since it is so dependent on personnel available.

Ryan

I don’t think you can use faceoffs as a proxy for defensive prowess since it is so dependent on personnel available.

Agreed.

The argument of JFresh is that Draisaitl isn’t very good away from McDavid.

However, comparing Draisaitl without McDavid to Matthews or MacKinon also isn’t quite fair because there are mitigating factors like quality of linemates, goal tending, and Draisaitl has to take a ton of face offs, kill penalties, and play more minutes than Matthews.

Never mind that Mackinnon plays half his minutes with Makar who’s basically McDavid as a blue liner.

Bank Shot

In fairness to the guys preferring M&M over Draisaitl, I looked up Matthews/Mackinnons goal shares away from Rantanen/Marner and they both had even better results away from those wingers.

Harpers Hair
Harpers Hair
Lewis Grant

LT (or maybe this is for Ryan), I don’t begrudge the pop-up ads here. You’re a great writer and a gracious host and moderator, and are entitled to some compensation for your labours.

But the pop-up ads with video? That raises the issue of opening this site in a quiet public space and having videos blare for all to hear. It’s not worth the risk.

jp

I’m not sure whether LT is able to tailor the add content on the site.

You could always just turn down the volume on your device if you’re in public to avoid the issue.

kewltalon

I use the mobile brave browser and no pop ups.

Side

I also use Brave and it’s great for handling most pop ups and ads.

Kurri17

You know you can turn your volume down?

Lewis Grant

I do! But is my memory perfect, to remember to do it every time? Hell no. And the sound only has to be on for half a second to be a distraction and an embarrassment.

Ryan

I don’t have anything to do with the Ads 🙂

The biggest problem that I have with the ads is that they lead to the misperception that LT is making lots of money by running this website.

We’ve seen with the collapse of Sportsblog Nation that hockey blogging isn’t a high profit vertical.

People are free to complain about the ads, but they should be hitting the donate button when they do. 🙂

Last edited 7 months ago by Ryan
Harpers Hair

What happened to the Nation?

Ryan

https://www.coppernblue.com/2023/2/16/23603290/a-path-forward-copper-and-blue-edmonton-oilers-connor-mcdavid-leon-draisaitl-jack-campbell

In mid-February, we were informed that Vox would be stripping their coverage of nearly all NHL sites, including yours truly. Fortunately, there appears to be a path forward as of today.

Last edited 7 months ago by Ryan
OriginalPouzar

I read/hear the odd opinion that Broberg should start the season in the AHL. I never thought that was even remotely realistic but Spector has some quotes from Holland today which completely quash any thought of that:

“We’re going to start with the seven defencemen who finished last year. The goalies are set,” Holland said over the phone on Friday afternoon. “Up front, we signed Brandon Sutter this summer. We’ll go to camp, see what they can do, watch the waiver wire …”

https://www.sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/oilers-ken-holland-confident-in-finding-right-mix-for-stanley-cup-run/

Lewis Grant

“We’re going to start with the seven defencemen who finished last year.”

Always nice to give hope to the D prospects. “Give it your best, boys – don’t worry, you’ll have lots of time to recover in Bakersfield.”

Sometime around ’85 or ’86, apparently Sather began training camp by saying, “boys, you’re fighting for two, maybe three spots.” The 2023-24 Oilers are not the 1985-86 Oilers.

defmn

Yeah, I agree. The GM shouldn’t be handing out jobs in August. In fact I don’t think it is the GM’s job at all to be telling the HC who is going to be on the opening night roster.

OriginalPouzar

There is no realistic battle among the d-men.

Kemp and Niemo know they are battling for first call-up.

If Niemo thinks he’s worthy of an NHL job, play well enough that he’s picked up on waivers….

defmn

You miss the point as is your M.O.

Reja

”Can’t see the forest through the trees”

Harpers Hair

Making a counterpoint over and over and over is seen as engaging in discussion.

defmn

I’m not sure if it is a reading comprehension problem or a lack of imagination but it is consistent.

OriginalPouzar

Didn’t miss the point at all – don’t agree its got any merit – dont’ believe he’s telling the coach who is on the roster (although it is his call at the end of the day), don’t think he’s altering the mind-set of any of the organizational d-men.

You attack personally, as is your MO with me.

Bank Shot

Yeah. Not sure where the disagreement is here. Broberg was a clear roster player last season. The prospects pushing are replacement level at best.

If for some reason Broberg plays himself out of a spot, Holland should be looking trade to round out the d-core. Can’t see that decision being made before regular season starts.

meanashell11

I am not certain but I believe it is the GM who decides the team, the coach coaches.

defmn

I would think that in a well run organization that is decided through discussion between the GM, HC and maybe one or two others.

godot10

The salary cap mostly determines the roster, not the GM or the coach. Once the contracts are signed, the team is pretty much set.

defmn

Sheldon Souray says hi.

godot10

One cannot bury contracts anymore…only $1 million.

defmn

True but I’m not sure that makes your point. Most teams these days have multiple players on the roster making less than the $1,125,000 that can disappear without any effect on the cap.

There are usually about 12-15 guys whose cap hits secure them a spot on the opening night roster. More for teams with cup aspirations.

Reja

If the team is set Lavoie is hooped apparently training camp and preseason doesn’t matter. If I was Lavoie I would get mean score a few Goals as well as going postal on a couple of opponents. Somebody will definitely pick him up for his size. If not he could get buried in the minors by his organization just like Benson and Marody.

defmn

I think the waiver wire has a chance to play a role for the Oilers this season. I can’t say the fourth line looks terrible but I don’t think it scares any other team either. I know the option exists to double shift McDavid or Draisaitl but still it wouldn’t be a huge surprise to me to see them send Janmark or Ryan down to Bakersfield if they see somebody they like come available.

jp

Agree the waiver wire could play a role this season, though I think Pederson and Lavoie are the far more likely casualties.

OriginalPouzar

There is a clear spot there for Lavoie if he wins it.

The team is set (if healthy) but for one forward spot.

lenko

Marody was ignored and Benson did it to himself.

OriginalPouzar

Barring injury, the only one that could even be considered would be Niemo and he knows he’s clearly 8 behind Vinny and Broberg.

He also knows that if he works hard and continues to progress, he’s likely the first call-up.

Kemp is similar – he knows the situation.

Shaun VanAllen's mom

The team that lost to Calgary in the second round. I hope they’re not those guys.

Lewis Grant

The 85-86 Oilers were probably the strongest Oilers team ever. Gretz with 2+ assists/game, Coffey with 48 goals. They would have had 5 players over 100 points if not for Messier missing some games.

They could have had 5 Cups in a row, matching the Habs, and doing it in a more difficult era. I still have to believe that without Steve Smith, they’d have five Cups in a row.

Maybe Slats shouldn’t have guaranteed Steve Smith a job, ha!

teamblue

This might be Kenny’s way of lighting a fire under the Niemelainen and Kemp types asses.

OriginalPouzar

No. 21. RW Tyler Tullio (21): I don’t think he’ll score 20, but will go past 30 points. Not a recall option.

I could see this player putting himself in the conversation beside Bourgault for a cup of coffee if/when injuries hit.

He was so good during a couple of heaters last season – I’m rooting for him.

OriginalPouzar

LC Leon Draisaitl. The brilliant big man has tailored his game to both complement McDavid and stretch himself as a solo artist. I worry about his goal share, it’s just past 50 percent at five-on-five. He did post another top flight playoff number (56 percent). 

Leon losing the goal share when not on with McDavid last year was an issue.

It was only 48% but Leon Draisaitl has to win his minutes. Yes, there was bad goaltending and there was linemates not finishing chances, etc., etc. but, at the end of the day, Leon needs to win his minutes.

I presume last year will prove to be a one-off.

I also note that Leon was up to near 52% when not on the ice with Connor and Kane.

I hope injury had much to do with Kane cratering goal share throughout the lineup last season.

Scungilli Slushy

My hope is that they have all learned that you have to play the right way first. If the 80s Oilers had to start playing defensively to win the Cup, by definition it’s essential, the essence

They have done prolific offensive things and are underwhelming the goal share as you said. And have twice lost to teams taking care of details, even if the Knights are less skilled

That Leon and Connor blew the playoffs up and Leon was minus 1 and Connor plus 1, es no bueno. Their line mates aren’t bad top 6 players like before. Part of this is coaching. There is stubbornness and we all watch it and see when it’s not working and they make no adjustments and give up leads sod goals at key times

Part is stubbornness in Connor and Leon forcing plays that everyone knows they will. Making way too many high risk plays, more Leon than Connor to me. It quite often doesn’t work. Some games yes, but again they couldn’t close the series, or get ahead of it

They are great players and we are lucky to have them after a long drought of elite talent. But I think adjustments are needed to take a step further. No team has a perfect roster. The Oilers has no real holes anymore. But some coaches get the most out of their players when it counts, and the team play carries the group and elite play pushes them higher

I feel if they just role the dice with the same plan, mostly the same players, parachute someone in at high cost, they will get the same result. Maybe the paratrooper will be such a significant add it’s the thing that does it. We’ll see, can’t wait for hockey but am torn because summer has to end to get it!

Reja

Leon’s back should be lighter now that he doesn’t have to carry a certain not to be named linemate. You will see a significant rise in Goal share as the 2nd line will thrive this near.

jp

You’re remarkably obstinate Reja.

Three and a half seasons of goal share shows:

Draisaitl with Yamamoto (McDavid minutes removed)
92GF-60GA = 60%GF

Draisaitl without Yamamoto (McDavid minutes removed)
53GF-61GA = 46%GF

I agree Draisaitl’s goal share will increase (because last season was his worst in years) it won’t be because of Yamamoto’s departure.

defmn

I expect to be reading Yamamoto/Brown comparisons all season. 😇

Kurri17

Lol, did Yamamoto steal your girl?

Reja

Before So&So was picked he told any N.H.L team that passes on me will regret it. Cocky Americans that don’t live up to their hype usually in N.F.L and N.B.A not N.H.L. So&So is billed as a skill player yet he can’t finish especially open nets. He’s not the first player to come into the league who has a heater then the opposition figures him out. Leon has been getting double teamed for the last 2 years you’ll notice Leon will have more room and use less energy without 2 men draped all over his ass.

OriginalPouzar

“Leon getting double-teamed” – is this a concept based in reality? He isn’t a wide-receiver, this doesn’t happen.

Yamo also goes higher in a re-draft.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Why do you hate Evander Kane?

Reja

The man had his wrist slashed, think about it. who knows what the damage was but I forgive him for not getting in a fight nightly. If you think kane is a lightweight you should listen to the Souray interview neither one is a so called lollygagger.

BornInAGretzkyJersey

Woosh.

Reja

If you don’t think Kane ability to aid Leon was reduced considerably with his wrist being slashed shows again your not paying attention.

OriginalPouzar

Leon’s back should be lighter now that he doesn’t have to carry a certain not to be named linemate. You will see a significant rise in Goal share as the 2nd line will thrive this near.

Leon Draisaitl had a 58% goal share with Yamamoto last season and 49% without.

If you want to exclude McDavid on the line, Leon was at 53% with Yamo and 48% without.

Over the course of the last three seasons, Drai is at 59% with Yamo and 53% without and, if you want to exclude McDavid, Drai is 56% with and 48%.

This isn’t just a narrative against Yamo now, its just pure wrong/incorrect facts/lies.

Reja

Is it score effects I don’t know but I do know is they chose someone 5 years older that missed all of last year with a blown up knee. Is it that the Oilers are looking for someone with a more rounded game especially come Playoff time?

OriginalPouzar

No doubt Yamo had a tough year.

No doubt that Brown should be an upgrade.

This doesn’t mean factually incorrect lies about Yamo cratering Drai’s goal share should stand without correction.

Reja

Yamamoto couldn’t even fetch a pail of used pucks in return. The only reason Yzerman took him on with Kostin was so Dad would look like he got a bit of return for him.

€√¥£€^$

Just wanted to mention the Canadian Men’s basketball team absolutely demolishing France yesterday in their first game at the World Cup. France is the upcoming Olympics host and a perennial top 3 team in the world. They’ve only lost 3 times in part 4-5 years. This was a massive statement game and I think the most impressive game in the history of our national team.

As a passionate 42 year follower of the program (I watched the then-unimpressive team play vs South Korea in a West side HS gym in the late 80’s with about 200 other spectators) I recognize how far this team has come. This has been about 25 years in the making.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is an NBA star and he is surrounded by very good players on this team. Despite the team’s significant stumbles in the first half, they ultimately crushed an experienced elite team.

The team is going to do some special things at this World Cup. They will destroy Lebanon tomorrow, which will help them to gel even more. I invite you to follow this team, this is not an at times boring NBA-type game, this is all hustle, physicality and grit and they will be making history if they stay healthy. For me this is must-see tv.

Cheers!

MushedPeas

Jeepers Mary n Joe: Who’s dropping the downvotes here? LT blog attract the readership of French nationals?

€√¥£€^$

Lol, something something basketball on a hockey blog.

Either that or Eli Pasquale stole their GF.

ristojalo

Thanks for this info! I’d much rather read about Canadian basketball rather than the daily update on the LA Kings.

Our Edmonton Operation

It’s really too bad Jamal Murray needed to rest and therefore isn’t playing. But they did fine without him against France.

€√¥£€^$

We have several good to great guards and small forwards. 2nd generation National Team player RJ Barrett and starting PG had a very very poor shooting game. When he shakes the rust off, hopefully in the next game, this should be a scary good team.

What they really lack are bigs. 7’4” Zach Edey could be our Yao Ming in 3-5 years, but he has to drafted to a team that will develop him and provide him opportunity. Hopefully he is a 1st round (guaranteed contract) next year.

17 year old 7’7” Olivier Rioux is just tall, I suppose he will play NCAA, but likely as a 10-12th man.

No much else in the Centre or Power Forward pipeline for Canada, yet…

meanashell11

Nuge might be one of the two best players in team history to both thrive over many seasons and never be considered the best player on his team.

Ryan Smyth?

Todd Macallan

Kurri?

JJS

Dr Drais enters the conversation!

The Oil have been blessed with 2 generational players who cast long shadows. It’s too bad there were 20 years in-between but glad to be witnessing it again.

I often think of the Penguins going straight from Lemieux/Jagr to Crosby/Malkin and Detroit from Stevie Y/Lindstrom to Dats/Zetter. Incredible to have such an incredible unbroken lineage.

OriginalPouzar

Although accruing cap is expected and ide, now that the Bouchard number is locked we know exactly how much room there is under the opening night cap for 12F.

League min (or close thereto) is expected but they technically could spend close to $1.1MM for 12F.

is there anyone out there that may warrant a bit over league min that could impact?

Tatar? Gregor? Comtois?

€√¥£€^$

Tatar played in the Marian Hossa farewell game in Slovakia. I really like him as a possible addition.

Also of note, Jonathan Toews and Duncan Keith also played.

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/ottawa-senators/.amp/news/hall-of-famer-marian-hossa-bids-farewell-with-star-studded-charity-game

OriginalPouzar

Yup, barring injury or a shocking move of salary out, we know there will be 12 forwards on the opening roster and 11 are locked:

McDavid, Drai, Mcleod
Nuge, Kane, Holloway, Janmark
Hyman, Brown, Foegele, Ryan

As of now, it’s a battle among Lavoie, Pederson and Sutter for 12F.

One would hope that Lavoie wins the day but, then again, a right shot center would be ideal – Sutter fits the job description but he was barely hanging on 2 years ago before missing 2 full seasons with health.

godot10

Lavoie establishing himself in the NHL would be far more significant than some marginal right shot NHL centre.

More talented players contributing create a larger margin for error.

OriginalPouzar

Yes – of course, Lavoie has no history of establishing himself in the NHL. I hope he does but adding competition for 12F wouldn’t hurt – if he beats out any add in camp (along with Sutter and Pederson), then we see what he can do in the regular season and the add is waived and either claimed or assigned with no cap effect.