I think we have the Oilers surrounded in regard to the No. 3 overall selection in the 2014 draft. They could surprise and trade the pick, and that would be a surprise after all these years of Matty’s teasing, but chances are they pick at 3.
OILERS ESTIMATED DRAFT LIST
- Aaron Ekblad
- Sam Reinhart
- Leon Draisaitl
- Sam Bennett
- Michael Dal Colle
- Nick Ritchie
I think they end up with Draisaitl, and if they do take him with Bennett on the board there’s no real way to frame it beyond they took the bigger man when given a close choice. I wonder if we’re missing something on Bennett, but we’ll find out as the years roll along.
One thing I’m not sure what to do with is the GF-GA on data supplied at this database which shows Bennett played on a better team than the other two centers. Here, let me post it again.
TEAM-BY-TEAM GOAL DIFFERENTIAL
- KINGSTON FRONTENACS AT EVENS: 216-169 (+47)
- KOOTENAY ICE AT EVENS: 168-156 (+12)
- PRINCE ALBERT AT EVENS: 169-191 (-22)
There’s a fairly wide gap at evens for these three teams. Who’s zooming who? Bennett is playing on a team that approaches +1 per game at even strength, that’s a monster. Reinhart plays on a team a little above par for the year, and Draisaitl’s team is about -.3 of a goal at 5×5 when the anthem played. That’s a gap.
GOALS FOR-GOALS AGAINST ON ICE, BY PLAYER
|1.017||SAM BENNETT, OHL||57||58||80||45||+35|
|1.00||SAM REINHART, WHL||60||6||75||51||+24|
|.922||LEON DRAISAITL, WHL||64||59||68||61||+7|
Fascinating. Bennett is a helluva player, look at those even numbers. However, how much do we nick him for the +35/+47? Especially considering Reinhart (+24/+12) and Draisaitl (+7/-22). Just by eye, Draisaitl’s season looks the most impressive from here, but is that enough to move him up the list? I decided to leave things status quo, do you agree? Or does this change the order? Love your input.
OILER PICKS IN 2014
- #3 overall (first round)
- #91 overall (fourth round, this is the Bryzgalov return)
- #111 overall (fourth round, this is the Mike Brown return)
- #130 overall (fifth round, this is the first pick of the Ales Hemsky return)
- #137 overall (fifth round, this is the Nick Schultz return)
- #153 overall (sixth round)
- #183 overall (seventh round)
We’re one week away from rounds two through seven, and one of these picks (#137 OV) may be gone by then. MacT has suggested the Oilers will have a hard time moving in to the second or third round, but I don’t really buy it. They have that extra pick in next year’s draft (Hemsky deal) and the team could package No. 91 and No. 111 to move up for a specific player. Here’s a list of prospects who may be of interest to Edmonton at each stop at this year’s draft.
POSSIBLE OILERS ROUND 4 AND BEYOND
- L Dexter Dancs—I have him ranked much higher, but he may be available in the fourth round.
- C Nicolas Aube-Kubel—Two-way center. Fast train.
- L Juho Lammikko—Intelligent two-way winger with size. I don’t think he makes it to No. 91.
- G Ilya Sorokin—Russian goalie posted very nice numbers.
- C Alexandre Goulet—Scoring center, impressive at even strength.
- G Ville Husso—Finnish goalie looks good based on the boxcars.
- D Julius Bergman—Impressive defenseman with size and a nice range of skills.
- L Semyon Koshalev—Skill player of note, he has value among KHL teams.
- L Alexander Sharov—Impressive scorer is 6.01, 180 and has been quality for two seasons.
- L Edgars Kulda—Prospects don’t develop in a straight line.
- D Brandon Montour—Luedeke talked me into him.
As it stands now, we’re going to have a long and somewhat boring Saturday before anything happens a week from today. Hopefully MacT can add a pick or two, but remember those selections have been sent away in order to acquire David Perron, Ben Scrivens and (potentially) Nikita Nikitin. It’s already a damn good draft when you add in No. 3 overall and one of these players listed above.