RE 14-15 JEFF PETRY: SEE YOU SOMETIME

by Lowetide

Jeff Petry is Edmonton’s best defenseman, has been for some time now. Curiously, that fact seems to have gone unnoticed by the fanbase, and the organization. It’s a rare double double in Oilers nation—and it’s the worst damn thing imaginable. A team short on defensemen they can trust in any situation is about to flush the guy they can trust in all situations. And so it goes in the town that can’t stop losing.

JEFF PETRY 10-11

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.21 (8th among Oil D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 1.67 (5th among Oil D)
  • Qual Comp: 5th toughest among D
  • Qual Team: 7th best available among D
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 50.2
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: +1.4
  • Corsi Rel: 2.0 (tied for 4th best among D)
  • Zone Start: 49.1% (3rd toughest among D)
  • Zone Finish: 50.5% (5th best among D)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 41 shots/1 goal 2.4% (7th among Oil D)
  • Boxcars: 35gp, 1-4-5

JEFF PETRY 11-12

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.91 (1st among Oil D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 3.25 (3rd among Oil D)
  • Qual Comp: 2nd toughest among D
  • Qual Team: best available among D
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 49.2
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: +1.4
  • Corsi Rel: 2.0 (tied for 4th best among D)
  • Zone Start: 49.1% (5th toughest among D)
  • Zone Finish: 51.3% (2nd best among D)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 111 shots/1.8% (6th among Oil D)
  • Boxcars: 73gp, 2-23-25

JEF PETRY 12-13

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.72 (4th among regular Oil D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: nil
  • Qual Comp: toughest among regular D
  • Qual Team: 6th best available among regular D
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 44.2
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: -0.6
  • Corsi Rel: -1.7 (5th best among regular D) (-12.49 Corsi ON)
  • Zone Start: 48.9% (easiest among regular D)
  • Zone Finish: 50.8% (2nd best among D)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 66 shots/4.55% (4th among Oil D>30 shots)
  • Boxcars: 48gp, 3-9-12

JEFF PETRY 13-14

  • 5×5 points per 60: 0.54 (3rd among regular D)
  • 5×4 points per 60: 1.82 (4th among regular D)
  • Qual Comp: toughest among regular D
  • Qual Team: 3rd best available among regular D
  • Corsi for 5×5 %: 46.7
  • Corsi for 5×5 % REL: +3.7
  • Zone Start: 42.7% (toughest among regular D)
  • Zone Finish: 44.4% (6th best among D)
  • Shots on goal/percentage: 96 shots/7.3% (2nd among Oil D>50 shots)
  • Boxcars: 80gp, 7-10-17

RE 13-14 REVIEW

PPG NAME GP G A PTS
.267 JEFF PETRY RE 13-14 75 3 17 20
.213 JEFF PETRY ACTUAL 13-14 80 7 10 17

RE 14-15 PREVIEW

PPG NAME GP G A PTS
.255 JEFF PETRY RE 14-15 55 4 10 14
 

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER (REL)

vollman sledge blue 13-14

  1. What do these numbers tell us? Jeff Petry had a good year. In the middle of a terrible season by a dreadful, abysmal team, Jeff Petry had a good season. It’s one of the truly incredible things in recent Oilers history.
  2. He was awful. I read twitter. Toughest opposition, worst zone start, and his shot differential is in the blue zone rel. DAN Petry never looked this good.
  3. I see he’s playing 55 games. Trading him? Yes, I think he’s gone at the deadline.
  4. THAT’S reasonable??!?! The one-year contract suggests the Oilers aren’t convinced or Petry wants to go. Either way, it’s pretty much done in my opinion.
  5. How so? Let’s say Petry plays extremely well. What would that look like? A  lot like last season, which did not convince Oilers management. It’s a blind spot, a tic, a tell. Edmonton fans and management don’t like college defensemen, why the hell they draft them and trade for them is beyond me.
  6. You’re being silly. I think that’s the correct read on this hand that’s been dealt. Petry plays well, he’s asking for $5.5 million, and the Oilers aren’t interested at that number.
  7. Maybe they are with the new cap? The point is moot. He’s worth a long-term deal now, MacT didn’t believe in him. Fin.
  8. The point is moot? Yeah.
  9. You have to admit, he had some ghastly moments. Sure. You can expect that from young defensemen playing above their established level of ability. What I object to is blaming the player for management’s established stupidity. Get good players, keep good players.
  10. Who do you blame? Craig MacTavish is the GM, buck stops there. Shameful contract, no defending it.
  11. Oilers seem to do that a lot. ALWAYS!!! The Oilers haven’t had a balanced defense since 2006!!! As soon as Gilbert resembled an NHL defenseman they couldn’t wait to cash him in for Nick Schultz—who closely matches the traditional Oilers version of an effective veteran. The problem is that the position has changed, and mobile, quick thinking defenders who can win battles but may not knock people’s heads off are the preferred skill set.
  12. Back to Petry. He had some horrible moments. Sure did, no doubt. Bruce McCurdy had this to say one night in his player grades over at CofH: 2 Jeff Petry, 2. The stats page shows Petry was on the ice for 26 shot attempts by the Oilers, just 9 by the Coyotes. Sounds pretty good! Unfortunately 2 of those 9 shot attempts against were goals, both the direct result of defensive blunders by Petry. On one he failed to cover the passing lane, allowing a ridiculously easy pass through the slot for a free shot from the low slot by sniper Radim Vrbata, with predictable results. On the other, ‘Yotes defender Keith Yandle put a deke on Petry that made him look like his skates were tied together. Took a penalty after losing a battle on the boards. Had some OK moments, but on the whole it was a disastrous game.
  13. So, there’s a problem. Yes. The Oilers have two problems defensively. First, Petry is just finishing his third full year in the league and is playing above his level.That’s a monster issue, it just is. The results Petry managed this year are genuinely good compared to his teammates, but imagine how good they could be if he was facing second pairing opps?
  14. What’s the other problem? Oilers have too many defensive sorties per shift. It’s jailbreak after jailbreak after jailbreak. The entire game for the Oilers is one giant broken play. One defenseman can’t stop that kind of force every night. It just isn’t possible.
  15. So, maybe he’s not good enough. Jeff Petry is an NHL defenseman. Full stop. If we had an expansion draft tomorrow, and had to choose between him and Justin Schultz, I protect Petry ten times out of ten.
  16. How old was Tom Gilbert when they traded him? 28.
  17. Poti? 24.
  18. Wow. Yeah. Oilers train a lot of useful defensemen and then trade them. It’s a thing.
  19. Poti and Gilbert weren’t useful! And bam! This is why we can’t have nice things.
  20. Why this song? I could have chosen 100 Joni Mitchell songs for Petry, but decided this one worked because of the title and conflicting emotions. It’s over, but it isn’t over. That’s the Oilers and Jeff Petry. Can they get a contract done? How often does that happen in this situation? We’re not talking about Mark Arcobello here, with due respect. Jeff Petry will have a long line of bidders next summer. How can the Oilers see past that? All of the other NHL teams were signing their defensemen this summer long term, but the Oilers—once again the smartest men in the room—can’t see their way clear to sign their best defenseman. We’re in for more rain.
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Bruce McCurdy

VanOil: Bruces recent COH piece http://goo.gl/ej9vWs follows the same thought process as my recent comment http://goo.gl/2OXsPh.

Good stuff, there were a couple of us on the same page it seems. Ryan Batty also wrote a piece at C&B along somewhat similar lines, & when you read a glowing review at C&B you come to realize something must be actually changing.

Bruce McCurdy

thejonrmcleod:
I foresee a new narrative on the Oilogosphere: “What is Dellow thinking/saying/doing about this?”

#WWDD? 🙂

Big Dan

Yeti:
Big Dan,

I hear you, Big Dan, but if we ditch Petry because he’s asking for slightly too rich a contract, then what price are we going to end up paying for a replacement? We’ve counted out far too many pennies for Nikitin and that kind of overpayment is to be expected to bring UFAs into town.

Now that Petry has a one-year deal, there’s no incentive for him to agree to a new contract before the end of the year. Then, even if he wants to stick around, he’ll be able to use other offers to push up his contract. That’s the problem here: the one year deal left the Oil with no leverage in a market in which they need every last bit of leverage possible to get players to come here.

Yeti, do you think Colorado wanted to part with Paul Stastny? In a cap world, teams have to make tough calls.

The Oilers have rushed kids in the past and appear to be doing so again with Draisaitl (I disagree; I think he’s being put in a position to succeed with soft 3rd line minutes to start).

And it looks like they may do it again by ushering out Petry for a Klefbom/Nurse. But so be it. Everybody’s doing it (recycling ok players for kids) – even Chicago. Yeah it sucks to lose a quality top four D, but we have to open the door to a couple of our kids if they prove to be ready.

I’m not gnashing my teeth about Petry. I think he’s grossly overrated by Lowetide. If he is willing to take $4.25M long-term, I’d keep him. If he is asking for the moon, I’d rather spend our scarce cap dollars elsewhere.

Much like Ference’s signing spelled the end of Smid, Fayne’s signing will spell the end of Petry (unless Schultz face plants). I have a feeling – no logic behind it – that Schultz will turn it around nicely this year.

HeavySig

Woodguy,

Wasn’t LT’s nickname in high school “Roots?”

Bag of Pucks
Lois Lowe

I really hope they rid us of the Octane girls. It’s so low brow, gendered, and unnecessary.

G Money

G Money: So I took him up on his challenge, and the next night I took notes (during the first period only, it’s pretty intensive) on every single Petry touch of the puck or play made (or even every shift during which I noticed Petry was out but where he didn’t impact the play, which was almost never).
The results were what you’d expect.

For those who care to validate such things, I found the thread entry where I posted my PetryVision(tm) results:

https://lowetide.ca/2014/04/kings-at-oilers-g81-13-14.html/comment-page-2#comment-309697

G Money

Bag of Pucks,

Beer Googles? You mean these?

comment image

Bag of Pucks

book¡je: Selective memory is what allows me to see Justin Schultz as the next Paul Coffey.

Sure you’re not confusing selective memory with beer googles?

Bag of Pucks

One aspect of the fan experience that I think the Oilers could improve is leveraging social media to organically crowd source some of the more creative fan expression that exists out there.

A perfect example of what I mean is the guys last year who dressed up as ‘Jagr through the years’ or even the Green Men in Van.

We have a lot of hockey nuts in this city. The Oilers can easily create more avenues and exposure for that type of fan expression. Things like the Octane don’t work. Things like a Mark Messier lookalike contest or best fan painted goalie mask do imo.

Or how about a ‘Smytty Mullet’ night? First 500 mullets through the door get a collector’s Smytty bobblehead complete w/flow.

böök¡je

Bar_Qu: Blind optimism and a selective memory

Selective memory is what allows me to see Justin Schultz as the next Paul Coffey.

Oil2Oilers

Woodguy,

Is he the new Rexall DJ? Wow everything is going to be alright.

Woodguy

Oilers up their game in terms of in-game presentation and hired award winning Director of Game Presentation Rich Meyers from Grand Rapids:

http://www.mlive.com/griffins/index.ssf/2014/08/rich_meyers_who_created_in-gam.html

Nice to see they are doing this.

Its been awful for years.

Numenius

oliveoilers: LOL, you’re not being a dink.However the inquisiton of the middle agesdidn’t need education…….because NOBODY EXPECTS THE (SPANISH) INQUISITION!

This leads to some interesting thoughts:There are still Flat Earth theorists out there, same as creationists.Some of these people are very educated.That what they are educated in is total dog wank is a matter for the pedants of grammar to argue.Does ‘Educated’ equal ‘Knowledgable’ equal ‘Correct’?

Haha. Strictly speaking, I think “educated” = “knowledgeable” = “correct” but usually educated refers to someone having gone through a formal educational system, in which case “knowledge” doesn’t necessarily follow. Exhibit A: high school graduates these days

But I have to take issue with your implied equivalence between creationists and Flat earthers. Even in terms of formal education, they’re not on the same level. You won’t find a PhD science graduate who believes in a flat earth, but you’ll find many of them who are creationists of some form (young-earth or old-earth). I’m not one of these myself, but I know people who are and they’re actually quite intelligent and reasonable! Many of them, moreover, make actual contributions to science in other ways, meaning that it doesn’t affect their rationality as much as one would think. Indeed, they’re typically much less fanatical than other “more enlightened” PhDers who, while deriding creationism as the utmost extreme of absurdity, end up being Truthers, radical feminists, radical Marxists, or Jihadist apologists. I’m getting a little carried away here, but you get my point I think!

Bar_Qu

book¡je:
I’m going with “Tyler’s going to fix everything wrong with the Oilers and make them a contender” until at least early November.

Without blind optimism, I could never be an Oiler fan.

Blind optimism and a selective memory

Bag of Pucks

Soup Fascist:
godot10,

Even if they are within single digits of a playoff spot at the deadline, they cannot trade Petry.

This org once traded Ryan Smyth hours before they hung Messier’s jersey in the rafters.

They CAN trade Jeff Petry at the deadline.

Gord help us if they ever decide to put Joey Moss on the block.

böök¡je

I’m going with “Tyler’s going to fix everything wrong with the Oilers and make them a contender” until at least early November.

Without blind optimism, I could never be an Oiler fan.

Soup Fascist

godot10,

godot10: I can assure you that you have nothing to worry about.By Christmas, the only thing we and the Oilers will be sniffing are the entrails of McDavid’s and Eichel’s advanced stats.

The Oilers can improve a great deal, by 15 points, and still be out of the playoff race by Christmas, and still be only 12th place in the West. Christmas would be a great improvement over last season, which was Halloween.

Would you not have said the same thing about the Avs a year ago? They started the year pencilled in with the rest of the dregs in the west. They got overachieving play from a group of d-men that were panned significantly at the beginning of the season and some unexpectedly outstanding goaltending.

I agree the likelihood is that the writing could very well be on the wall prior to the trade deadline, as well. However things tend to change fairly quickly. I think the Avs and Sharks could both retreat a bit from the “super seven” group of teams inj the west everyone has given a spot to and voila, there are a bunch of teams in the hunt for 2 or 3 spots, understanding the elite in the division are significantly better.

Even if they are within single digits of a playoff spot at the deadline, they cannot trade Petry.

Oil2Oilers

“blaming the player for management’s established stupidity. Get good players, keep good players”
I was tempted to quote this 8 times for truthfulness.

Bruces recent COH piece http://goo.gl/ej9vWs follows the same thought process as my recent comment http://goo.gl/2OXsPh. Of course it is better written and researched. The part of the research I was most impressed with was Nail speaking of his off ice relationship with Eakins.

All the positivity though was starting to rot my teeth, so it is nice to stop by here today and realize the Oilers are still a utter disaster who are going to trade there best defenseman out of town half way through the season.

G Money

godot10,

So what you’re saying is, MacT’s “bonehead move” is refusing to sign an overvalued contract for Petry this summer instead of waiting to see if he actually deserves it, in which case he’d be paying market anyway, a delta of which will be measured in hundreds of thousands of dollars?

Wow, you’re right, what a catastrophe.

blainer

godot10,

I will agree with you on this and actually think some Nikitin’s money would have been better spent on Petry. Still it’s a risk for both parties and really hope he has an excellent year and we are rejoicing about the 52 million dollar contract he just signed.

godot10

G Money: How do you know it wasn’t offered?How do you know Petry isn’t already asking for $6M (which in no way shape or form is he worth)?

Unless Petry rips it up this coming season, I doubt there is a team in the league that will offer Petry anywhere close to $6M.Not even remotely.I expect that is part of MacT’s strategy.If Petry steps up in such a big way that he can justify a big money contract – MacT will offer it.If he doesn’t, if he keeps playing the way he does (which is the best D last year on the Oilers but a solid second pairing D on a good team), the market will make it clear to Petry that his expectations are way way too high.

And of course, I have no doubt when that happens, you will declare that you were right and that Petry, his agent, MacT, and the 29 other teams in the league were wrong.

Low-end 30-somthing 2nd pairing guys (Nikitin) get $4.5 million.

The “new” salary scale for UFA years for veteran defensemen (27-33)

1st pairing $6.5 million and up
2nd pairing $4.5 – $6.5 million
3rd pairing $3.5 -$4.5 million.

Petry is arguably a #3D, and is a right shot. I think that puts him in the $6 million dollar ballpark next year, unless he signs for less in Detroit to play at home.

bendelson

Petry? The way I see it, MacT has until the deadline to find a way to turn this mess into something positive. Good luck.

Did someone mention Scarlett Johansson?

I just watched Under the Skin the other day.

WHOA

That was more than I was expecting…

blainer

justDOit,

If you re read my post I said… It’s not that I don’t like Petry.. he is a great skater and a good number four defensemen. I just don’t think he is worth the risk and we end up stuck like we almost did with Smid’s contract. We have a lot of defenceman coming and will need that money. It is my opinion that 5.5 mil is too much for a number 4 defencemen. Next years defense is Nurse Fayne.. Nikitan Marincin …Klefbom xxx … I expect Klefbom back up by mid year and then ready for next year. Again if Petry lights it up this year ..well we try to sign him. JMO.

bucknuck

I really hope you are wrong, because I really like Petry’s game. Hey, with Dellow on the Oilers staff will that make it more likely that Petry is seen as having value?

G Money

godot10: Petry at 4 x $5.25 would have been a tradeable contract. There was little risk offering it.

How do you know it wasn’t offered? How do you know Petry isn’t already asking for $6M (which in no way shape or form is he worth)?

godot10: Prediction: Petry will be getting 4 x $6 million next summer plus/minus $300K, although Detroit might get him for $5.5 million per.

Unless Petry rips it up this coming season, I doubt there is a team in the league that will offer Petry anywhere close to $6M. Not even remotely. I expect that is part of MacT’s strategy. If Petry steps up in such a big way that he can justify a big money contract – MacT will offer it. If he doesn’t, if he keeps playing the way he does (which is the best D last year on the Oilers but a solid second pairing D on a good team), the market will make it clear to Petry that his expectations are way way too high.

And of course, I have no doubt when that happens, you will declare that you were right and that Petry, his agent, MacT, and the 29 other teams in the league were wrong.

godot10

Soup Fascist:
One question.A lot of people have Petry as trade bait at the deadline primarily, due to his expiring contract.IF the Oilers have even a SNIFF of the playoffs at the deadline how do you even begin to spin trading, at worst, a top 4 D-man in their line up for a draft pick?

I can assure you that you have nothing to worry about. By Christmas, the only thing we and the Oilers will be sniffing are the entrails of McDavid’s and Eichel’s advanced stats.

The Oilers can improve a great deal, by 15 points, and still be out of the playoff race by Christmas, and still be only 12th place in the West. Christmas would be a great improvement over last season, which was Halloween.

godot10

spoiler:
I am speculating here, but I would say the one obviously* nice thing about the one year contract is that it seems to me it is unlikely Petry is the piece to be moved prior to the season or early in the season for Center help.There’s a lot of risk for the other party to also lose him to FA after the year is done. I’m thinking it would have to be a trade for a C who is also on an expiring contract for Petry to be moved prior to the deadline.

*There may be some unobvious nice things we are unaware of or… there might not be.

Petry and Lander for Coburn and a centre before the start of the season saves the Flyers a hell of a lot of cap room. A competent defensemen on a cheap contract is valuable to Philly, especially with the Pronger and Timonen problmes. The Flyers, if they like him, would pay him what he is worth, something that the Lowe and MacT won’t do.

godot10

Ca$h-Money!:
I like Petry.I do, however, find you make an interesting set of arguments here, namely that he is a good quality NHL dman, but also that he probably shouldn’t be on our first pairing…. but then you suggest he wants $5.5 million and the oilers don’t want to give it to him, and how that’s a horrible thing.

I don’t want to lose the guy, but I also don’t want to overpay.Here’s a list of all the guys shown on capgeek making between $4.5million and under $6.0million playing NHL D.Looking at this list (some guys are clear overpays) but generally speaking I would put Petry at or near the bottom of this list.Still good company mind you, and obviously contracts signed several years ago are cheaper than those signed today.Still, Petry at $4.5 long term seems right.If he won’t budge off $5.5, and I can trade him for a roughly equal asset who might accept the appropriate pay (Boychuck extended at $4 million say) then I take it.

Would I prefer to keep Petry AND pick up a comparable player like Boychuck, and extend Petry at the right amount?You bet.But at the end of the day RE has to apply to contracts as much as to point production.

18.Burns, Brent » $5,760,000
19.Carle, Matt »$5,750,000
20.Enstrom, Tobias »$5,750,000
21.Niskanen, Matt » $5,750,000
22.Yandle, Keith »$5,500,000
23.Pietrangelo, Alex »$5,500,000
24.Staal, Marc »$5,450,000
25.Martin, Paul »$5,000,000
26.Johnson, Jack »$5,000,000
27.Seabrook, Brent »$5,000,000
28.Wisniewski, James »$5,000,000
29.Myers, Tyler »$5,000,000
30.Wideman, Dennis »$5,000,000
31.Garrison, Jason »$5,000,000
32.Gonchar, Sergei »$5,000,000
33.Bouwmeester, Jay »$5,000,000
34.Goligoski, Alex »$4,800,000
35.Tyutin, Fedor »$4,750,000
36.Coburn, Braydon »$4,500,000
37.Nikitin, Nikita »$4,500,000
38.Boyle, Dan »$4,500,000
39.Stralman, Anton »$4,500,000

P.S. boy does Nikitin jump out at you there.Cost of bringing over hired help admitedly… but damn.

Comparables: (comparables should be recently signed contracts, not a list of ancient signings)

Jake Gardiner: 4RFA x $3.5 + 1UFA x $6 million = 5 x $4 (his contract)
Victor Hedman 4RFA x $3.5 + 1UFA x $6 million = 5 x $4 (his contract)
Dmitri Kulikov: 2RFA x $3.5 + 1UFA x $6 million = 3 x $4.33 (his contract)

Kevin Shattenkirk 4RFA x $4.25 (his contract)

Nikitin #4-#5 D 2UFA years x $4.5 million

Matt Niskanen 7UFA x $5.75
Dan Girard 6UFA x $5.5
Ryan McDonagh 4RFA x $3.75 + 2UFA x $6.6 million = 6 x $4.7
Justin Faulk 4RFA x $3.75 + 2UFA x $7 million = 6 x $4.83
Zac Bogosian 2RFA x $3.5 +5UFA x $5.8 million = 7 x $5.14

================
i.e. RFA years go for $3.5 million on the low end to $4.25 on the high end.
i.e. UFA years go for $5.5 million on the low end to $7 on the high end.

Jeff Petry (low end numbers) 1RFA x $3.5 + 3UFA x $5.5 = 4 x $5

That is the worst contract he would contemplate signing with duration. 4 x $5.25 might have gotten it done.
MacT’s bonehead move of the summer. Hiring Eakins and trading Horcoff were last year boneheads. Not signing Petry is this years.
Petry at 4 x $5.25 would have been a tradeable contract. There was little risk offering it.
Not getting Schultz done to 5 x $4-$4.25 will be similarly boneheaded. (4RFA x $3.5 + 1UFA x $6 million, i.e. Jake Gardiner comp).

Prediction: Petry will be getting 4 x $6 million next summer plus/minus $300K, although Detroit might get him for $5.5 million per.

JD_Wry

blainer,

If you’re looking for a blogger who doesn’t like Petry, then may I suggest you go read the fascinating Richard Cloutier?

From the witty title, ‘Petry Douche’, to his in-depth analysis of Petry, “He’s got a little too much Tom Gilbert going on with his hair and lack of physical play, but whatever…”, it’s a thrilling read. I can’t wait until Cloutier’s site goes dark, signalling that he’s been hired as a consultant to an NHL team.

Yeti

Big Dan,

I hear you, Big Dan, but if we ditch Petry because he’s asking for slightly too rich a contract, then what price are we going to end up paying for a replacement? We’ve counted out far too many pennies for Nikitin and that kind of overpayment is to be expected to bring UFAs into town.

Now that Petry has a one-year deal, there’s no incentive for him to agree to a new contract before the end of the year. Then, even if he wants to stick around, he’ll be able to use other offers to push up his contract. That’s the problem here: the one year deal left the Oil with no leverage in a market in which they need every last bit of leverage possible to get players to come here.

Bag of Pucks

I understand the stress over Petry’s contract but in all honesty, I like MacT’s approach on the D contracts a LOT.

With D, MacT is in the middle ground. He’s got some potential blue chips (Nurse, Klefbom, Schultz, Petry) that he projects as playing at the top of the order someday, a bunch of overpaid bandaids to keep the team competitive in the interim (Nikitin, Fayne, Ference) and the emerging group (Marincin, Aulie, Simpson, Musil, etc.) that he hopes (worst case scenario) will eventually replace the bandaids at a more cost effective price or (best case scenario) elevates to blue chip level (optimistic, but highly unlikely).,

Until recently, the Oiler’s MO was to lock up as may of their question marks as possible to long-term deals and then proceed to gnashing of teeth when these prospects/suspects commenced to underperforming their contracts and reducing their marketability. This in addition to the extreme lack of competition for roster spots these comfort contracts created have been key contributing factors in our near decade of suck.

With MacT, he’s overpaying on terms for those he has to (you don’t get Ference and Fayne without overpaying on term) but he’s keeping as many of these guys on a short leash as he can. Who’s going to emerge as the legitimate Top 4 D this year? For the first time in a long while, that will not be determined by the weight of untradeable contracts, but rather by the performance of the players themselves. What a concept! By midseason, MacT can see who’s put the bit between their teeth and he can renegotiate / extend accordingly. Those who’ve faltered become tradeable assets. And if Petry simply prices himself out of the market cos he wants to move on (in which case, f@*k him), then you get the benefit of him playing his ass off for 75% of this season to maximize his trade value.

This fanbase has to get OVER this fear of not having every single roster player on long-term deals. Building incentive for performance into your org is a GOOD thing – particularly with the question mark players. For this very reason, I think it will be highly questionable if MacT signs Schultz to a longterm deal at this time (don’t discount the possibility, the Subban deal may have them worried).

Remember guys like Muni, Huddy, Gator, Geoff Smith, etc. This team used to find unheralded D everywhere and pay them accordingly. Under Sather, they consistently had one of the most cost efficient blueline corps in the league. Somewhere along the line, suspect it was when a former D-man ascended to the GM chair, this team changed its philosophy in D procurement towards sourcing and overpaying the ‘big fish’ To be fair, it worked wonderfully well with Pronger. But this team needs to get back its roots. Create competition. Let the cream rise. When it does, then and only then, lock and load on a longterm deal.

Petry isn’t there. Yes, he was the Oilers’ best D last year, but on a club with minimal competition. If he can retain those mins with the likes of Fayne, Nikitin, and a more seasoned Klef and Schultz nipping at his heels, then and only then, should MacT reach for the Batphone.

Big Dan

Lowetide, why do you love Petry so much?

His market value is $4.5M. Stralman is better than Petry.

If he is seriously asking for over $5.5M (or is that just as fans making stuff up)… deal his rights for a pick in the summer after the playoffs. Or maybe he’ll resign for an equitable price. No use rushing – I’m sure MacT has a plan (unlike Tambo). The divide between his asking price and what the Oilers are willing to pay must be wide and that’s fine.

He’s a good top four on any team but we can’t pay a 20-point guy crazy money. Poor cap management.

I hope that MacT’s plan is:
(a) If Schultz explodes this year and becomes the D we all dreamt of when he signed.. then bied adieu to Petry. It sucks to let good players you developed go, but sometimes you have to in a cap world.

(b) If Schultz doesn’t show signs of improvement, MacT finds a way to bridge the gap and sign Petry.

blainer

Wow .. I have to say most of the bloggers are making Petry sound like he is Shea Weber.. I think he is a decent player but is not the player most are saying he is. The Oilers were happy to sign him to a one year deal as they have to make room for both the roster and the cap. I am quite happy with the one year unless he really does turn into Weber but otherwise we have a deep pool of defensemen pushing for spots.. a 2 two deal at possibly 5.5 mil is too risky to take on for next years cap. Not saying I don’t like Petry .. he is a great skater and a decent number 4 defenseman.

Lois Lowe

Woodguy: Whenever I think of you a tall thin African american is the first thing that comes to mind.

Morgan Freeman on helium sounds a little like LT.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cU8ps6okoJ4

Lois Lowe

Lowetide:
If we’re giving credit for Dellow’s hiring, and I have no inside info, it might not be a bad idea to tip one’s hat to the fellow down the dial.

That was my first thought too, Stauffer certainly puts a lot of stock in Tyler’s opinion and may not have the ear of management but knows they are listening to the things he says.

wheatnoil

Lowetide: Ha! No, I’m quite happy where I am, thanks. The Oilers are (imo) doing plenty right, so good days should be on the way for this fan. If they do that, I’ll be paid in full.

Until they trade Yakupov for pennies on the dollar and deal Petry at the deadline for a 3rd. THEN we’ll see a whole new side of LT. They’ll have to recast his role to be less Morgan Freeman and more Denzel Washington.

Numenius

Bank Shot: This is all assuming that Petry is actually asking for $5.5 which we don’t know. If its about the money then the Oilers are smart to walk away. If its about the Oilers not having interest then its just dumb. I have to assume its Petry’s camp being unreasonable here though. You would have to think the Oilers would have signed Petry’s camp to something longer term and fair cap hit even if they planned to trade him down the road.

I thought McT gave a pretty good indication of the negotiations in his interview about them.

1. He thought Petry had played well, but not well enough to justify a long term deal at the money he was asking for. (presumably $5M or above) I assume this was at least partially because McT wasn’t convinced he had much more upside.

2. So McT offered him less, assuming there wasn’t much more upside. Perhaps 2nd pairing money, whatever that would be (likely at least $4M, no more than $5).

3. Petry figured that he had more upside than that and said he’d take a 1 year deal to prove he does. This was in hopes that he could reach the next level next year and then sign for the higher dollar amount.

4. McT figured this was reasonable and they signed the 1 year contract. He knew he was risking “losing the asset”, as he explicitly said, but he implied that this was more of an outside possibility than a likelihood. He never gave the sense that Petry wanted out or that there was animosity in the negotiations. He also implied that both sides intended to do their best to come to a reasonable contract next year based on Petry’s play.

I conclude:

LT is being a little too chicken little about Petry’s future. Petry’s 1 year contract is not an indication he wants out at the end of the year nor that management undervalues him and will end up losing him. Rather, it means that Petry thinks he has a higher level and can earn more long term than he so far has proven to deserve. There is risk involved for both sides, but they both think they can come to a reasonable agreement next year based on how much Petry improves.

GCW_69
danny

Soup Fascist: Too easy. Gary Busey.

I change my vote.

danny

wheatnoil: Who plays Steve Simmons?

My vote is Lewis Black.

Bank Shot

Anyway, the lesson for Lowetide to learn out of all of this is that he has to start being a lot harder on the Oilers Org.

First Stauffer, and now Mudcrutch.

If Lowetide really starts giving the Org the gears he too could find himself sitting up in the press box watching the games in style.

Time for an article titled RE:They are all idiots! , or maybe Sail On Lowe you Sack of %$#@.

Soup Fascist

wheatnoil: Who plays Steve Simmons?

Too easy. Gary Busey.

Bank Shot

G Money: Interviews with Eakins suggest (not conclusively but still a good indication) that Dellow’s influence will be primarily with on-ice tactics, at least initially.

Staying in Toronto is part of why I used the “lab test” analogy.The examination and decisions are made in the doctor’s office, but the lab tests are done in specialized offsite facilities.I hope that the goal of the organization in hiring Dellow is to generate high quality objective diagnostic information, and that’s an entirely different thing from just being another voice at the table.

That’s probably a pretty good way of spelling it out.

wheatnoil

danny:
First, Tyler lands a job with the Oilers, then a VicFerrari unmasking.

Flashback 8 years ago on HFBoards, Igor and Mudcrutch doing their thing prodding and pissing off the hive.

Here we are today.

Who’s gonna be cast in the broadway hit MoneyPuck?

Tyler – Bill Murray
Vic – Kevin Spacey
LT – Morgan Freeman
Dennis – Dennis Leary
Bruce – Stephen Root
Mrs LT – Scarlett Johansson

Who plays Steve Simmons?

wheatnoil

Hockey Abstract 2014 is here! Buy the book or download the PDF today! http://t.co/hDWGAyVYgD— Rob Vollman (@robvollmanNHL) August 7, 2014

PDF copy is just under $14 US. I think I’ll be getting one.

Woodguy

Lowetide:
If we’re giving credit for Dellow’s hiring, and I have no inside info, it might not be a bad idea to tip one’s hat to the fellow down the dial.

He certainly promoted him on his show.

He has an established relationship with Howson.

Perhaps.

Soup Fascist

Woodguy: Seriously though I thought it was a pretty inspired list.

See, and I had Howard Hessman a.k.a Dr. Johnny Fever, circa 1982, playing a vinyl-spinning hockey blogger.

I especially envisioned the scene where – as part of a social experiment on Lowdown with Lowetide, our hero is able to recall 1970 hockey players and obscure album names at a quicker rate after a few libations.

Although, to be fair I have never heard L.T. say “booger” on the air.