By the seventh round, we’re looking at about an 8% chance of seeing an NHL player. You are basically pissing in the wind, and would have to pile more than 12.5 picks one on top of another to ensure one player arrives on your doorstep. This speaks to the luck involved for any pick outside the top 100 in each draft year.
Scott Cullen of TSN estimated the success rate (100 NHL games or more) to be 8% back in 2009. Let’s also use 150 games as the line in the sand, as we’ve done through each round.
OILERS SEVENTH ROUND 2008-2014
That set, let’s move on to the Oilers during the MacGregor era (2008-2014). The Oilers have selected six players in Round 7 during the MacGregor era, including one last month:
- 2008: Jordan Bendfeld
- 2010: Kristians Pelss
- 2010: Kellen Jones
- 2011: Frans Tuohimaa
- 2013: Greg Chase
- 2014: Keven Bouchard
Six players taken in the seventh round during the MBS era, so we’re really taking shots in the dark here. The odds of getting a player is 8% in this round.
- No longer a prospect: Jordan Bendfeld
- Very bad arrows:
- Bad arrows: Kellen Jones
- Lukewarm arrows: Frans Tuohimaa
- Good arrows:
- Very good arrows: Greg Chase
- New arrows: Keven Bouchard
Six drafted players, five to discuss. Bendfeld was out of organized hockey by 2011 spring. Jones had a solid college career—his final season featured 42 points in 40 games—but the Oilers didn’t sign him to an NHL deal. Tuohimaa holds some promise, I’m just not sure that any of these goalie prospects are going to be here in a year. Keven Bouchard may be something, may be nothing.
And then there’s Greg Chase. I ranked him as a second-round talent in 2013 before the draft, and I think that’s what we have here. Greg Chase was selected in the seventh round, but was invited to the Team Canada WJ camp—that in and of itself is incredible. So, the seventh round may deliver a player in Greg Chase, but it’s an anomaly that he was taken in that round.
He doesn’t belong here, never did.