FIFTY-THIRD AND THIRD

Fifty-three assists in one season is a lot. NHL wingers don’t reach that total a lot—Hall was No. 1 among all wingers last season (and No. 8 overall). Even better, Hall at even strength delivered 42 assists—second in the NHL to Joe Thornton. His 62 EV points ranked him fourth in the league in total points, and his 20 EV goals had him tied for No. 25 overall in 2013-14.

At this point in his career Taylor Hall is miles better than his team. He posted 80 points on a team that scored 199 goals—the heart of the order is Hall and his line, plus Perron. In  a recent interview with Jim Matheson, the talented young winger talked about the season ahead:

  • “There are teams built the way we are, and they have success. The Rangers were a fast team that had trouble with their identity at the start of the year and figured it out over the course of the season. They were a fun team to watch. They’re not big, but they play with the puck and they’re fast. That’s how we have to be. We’re not going to bully teams out of their arena, but what we can do and what we can grow into is a possession team … a team that’s hard to knock off pucks and battles the way the big teams do.”

This dovetails nicely with something Tyler Dellow wrote on his blog before it went dark (actually, it went white):

  • Dellow: What does this all tell us? I see three issues. First, the Oilers have become much more likely to dump pucks into the offensive zone with Hall on the ice at 5v5. Second, (in this sample at least but keep in mind that it was picked because it was pretty representative of the whole), they suck at retrieving those pucks. Third, they’ve gotten worse at generating shot attempts when they do carry the puck into the offensive zone.

In unrelated news, the Edmonton Oilers hired Tyler Dellow this summer.

We wait.

schultz common3The Tyson Barrie contract exposes the Justin Schultz deal. By my count, the Oilers overpaid by about $1.5 million on their contract, and that’s insane. The one thing no one has absolutely confirmed to me is that Justin Schultz as an RFA is identical to Barrie. DOES the fact that Schultz was signed originally as a UFA unhook the Oilers from the pay grade of a drafted player who went the more traditional route? I don’t have that answer, but can say if in fact the Oilers paid this much more than market we should be genuinely afraid of the Schultz long term deal. $5.5 million a year? $6 million? Whatever scale Edmonton’s on, it’s off the grid.

The good thing (in my mind) about the deal? It’s one year. Justin Schultz may not be able to play defense capably, and a five-year deal with a one dimensional albatross is exactly a must to avoid. Again, it rings true: Oilers management’s take on this player is wildly out of sync with the evidence, and this season—in a year when chaos should occur less often—perhaps the faults of this player will be more pronounced. Or he turns a corner. The evidence so far isn’t there.

mact on nurseThe Young Stars tournament in Penticton is just around the corner, I’ll have reports from BC during the Lowdown as the event rolls along. Last year, Kevin McCartney did an outstanding job for the Nations Network (example: here) and I wanted to post a couple of his comments as a reminder of just how much can change in one year.

  • #74 Darnell Nurse: A mixed bag. Again showed his puck skills and skating to be in the plus to elite range for this tournament. I keep hearing people say Nurse looked more comfortable, but I didn’t see that. High-event and as things started to get away from him, pressed harder and tried to do everyone’s jobs. An individualistic effort. Great range, large frame, and carried well throughout. Supported Marco Roy through neutral zone on a rush in the 2nd before slicing ahead into the zone as lead attacker. Looked like a defenceman when he arrived at the net – no planned move for that moment. Wants to make everything happen immediately, and shows visceral decision making at times. His anticipation and pattern recognition are strong, as shown by his purposeful rushes and good rotation in the offensive end. I think he just lost patience without the puck. He’s 18 and has a lot of tools to choose from.
  • #42 Marco Roy: Got better with every game, and showed himself to be among the tournament’s top 12 or 15 forwards with this game. They gave him 5 shots for a conservative estimate of 13 on the tournament. Had a nice tip on a Nurse shot. His goal featured great passing by Betker to move the puck into the offensive zone, but also a terrific play by Roy to cut open the Canucks’ defence and attack the net before attacking a second time from behind the net. Constantly a threat with the puck in this game, his best skill is actually his puck support. Finds space extremely well, threatens from all over the offensive zone, and his two-way play is the best among Oiler forwards if you ignore his first game. He and Musil the best neutral zone players in the game.

If you’re looking for a reminder of events last summer at the Young Stars, that McCartney link is a must click. Hopefully we’ll be discussing the rookie roster later today.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

woodnatalie

Friday!!! We hit the air at 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Steve Lansky from Big Mouth Sports kicks things off, and then we roll into Tour of Alberta talk and Jeff Hauser caps off the hour with an NFL weekend preview. In hour two, Alan Hull will be by to talk about the Justin Schultz contract and the show will end on a high note when Paul Almeida comes on to disagree with everything I say! We’ll also preview Saturday Sports Extra for tomorrow, Paul is back after a summer in Europe with the idle rich.

10-1260 on text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. Tune in, it’s going to be a blast!

 

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65 Responses to "FIFTY-THIRD AND THIRD"

  1. oliveoilers says:

    Seemed to me that Tyler spent more time last year asking “What’s wrong with Taylor Hall?” and not “What’s a Justin Schultz for?” That could be a potential problem with the advanced stats, if your ‘Eye of Sauron’ is pointing in the wrong place, it can look like spin-doctoring. This is why I think DE will be identifying what he believes are problems and will be directing Tyler as to what to look at, rather than having him as a loose cannon dictating team strategy.

    Another great picture of Neil.

  2. Rod from Viking says:

    Your bang on as it relates to Schultz, I think both the himself and the Oilers have his talants grossly overrated, maybe they will prove me wrong.
    Natalie Wood, being a long time since i have seen a photo of her, a real beuty whos death was very suspicious.

  3. supernova says:

    Regarding Schultz

    His way of attaining FA has raised his profile and salary cost. I have said this many times on here but I firmly believe that Schultz and his agents want Eberle/ Hall contract.

    Think of it differently

    Would you trade Schultz for Barrrie?

    I wouldn’t, so innately I have to be willing to pay more for what I have.

    Barrie’s biggest obstacles will be?
    Is he really as good as he showed last year? And his size (oiler fans would call him MA Bergeron)

    Barrie is absolutely one of the reason the AVs went from last to first in the west last year.

  4. B S says:

    I’m excited to see Nurse in the big leagues, but I might be the only Oilers fan who doesn’t want him to play his nine games at the start of this season. He hasn’t filled out yet and he plays a physical game. He might be successful against kids, but the men in the NHL are going to clean his clock. I’m especially worried about the start of the season when all the goons are running around trying to injure players and justify their existence before the NHL starts handing out suspensions. I think Nurse runs too much risk of injury if he’s playing in the NHL at the start of the season. I’d rather see him get his cup of coffee later, when the Oilers are out of contention and ideally his Junior team is locked into their playoffs, otherwise they should wait another year.

  5. Pouzar says:

    ” Even better, Hall at even strength delivered 42 assists”
    Jezzuz H that is impressive. Had no idea.

  6. B S says:

    Rod from Viking,

    I think that the important thing to differentiate with Schultz is his skill vs his ability, where skill is the range of skills he has and the maximum extent of them he has shown. This includes his skating speed, lateral movement, passing, and shooting. It does not include physical play and pushing players off the puck. Ability then is the average effectiveness of his application of these skills. Justin Schultz has shown elite skills, but he has yet to demonstrate overall high end ability. Banking on Schultz is bank on his ability catching up to his skills. If you hold his skills in high regard, then your willing to pay the extra to keep him around (vs say Barrie, or to hit a sore point Petry), but the one year on his deal means that if his abilities don’t improve, you don’t need to keep paying him.

  7. jimmers2 says:

    Hall is a warhorse! Awesome player.

    Regarding Schultz, his contract and his future, MacT in his presser felt he had to address and set aside Schultz’s nasty advanced stats. I think it is worth noting that his answer to this is simply expert “saw him good” opinion. He says that the stats aren’t revealing the qualities of the player. That is his prerogative as the GM (and what I keep telling my boss…). However, the elephant is there in the room and MacT has to squirm to get around it. It is a one year contract and if Schultz’s performance doesn’t live up to his gilded potential this year it will be much harder for MacT to make that statement again with credibility or for Shultz’ agent to argue that he has increased his market value. MacT is now tied to those stats as much as Schultz is. So I should think anyway, no doubt I am naive. At the price, I’d prefer to have Petry.

  8. Hammers says:

    Does anyone think McT would trade Schultz if he has the exact same type of season ? Is management so locked in on this player that he can do no wrong or will they take to heart anything Ramsay & Eakins has to say . For me the extra cash this year isn’t that big a deal as I said 1 million overpay and LT said 1.5 overpay but the important thing is how his evaluated at the end of the year .This one player may give us an idea of what the future holds with not only Schultz but with others like Yak & Nurse .

  9. Frank The Dog says:

    What is MacT supposed to do? If there is a disconnect it’s between what his agent is demanding and what MacT is prepared to pay. MacT keeps it positive by overpaying him on a 1 year “show me” contract while maturing his prospect pipeline.

    Schultz differs from Hall and Nuge and to a lesser extent, Eberle, in that he is not interested in compromise for the sake of a better roster. So Schultz is “pay me” and MacT is “show me”. MacT gives the sweet talk, setting him up for a trade, but the reality is that he’ll trade him before overpaying him. imho.

  10. Surly says:

    Hey Lowetide, speaking of the Oilers (from Nielson’s twitter):

    http://ftw.usatoday.com/2014/09/is-michelle-jenneke-faster-than-a-car

  11. jfry says:

    I really feel like we are missing the boat on this Schultz contract thing, especially when looking at comparables. For starters I would say that Barrie is not a comparable. He was drafted by the avalanche and came up in their system…and has played games in the ahl for the last three seasons (including last year). He is an early third round draft pick who came out of junior and was paid very little the last three years. In a nutshell, he is perhaps a comparable to marincin and what we might be looking at next year for his contract should Marty have a successful offensive season.

    Barrie is not a comparable for Schultz who signed a max contract in his first year. I understand all the groaning around here about the cost, but that is the realities when you aquire players through free agency. We paid him X last year and are telling him that he is expected to be better this year at 2/3 the pay? That just doesn’t happen. Comparables for Schultz should be the other players who have come out of school with the loop hole he used. It strikes me that wheeler was overpaid his whole career until recently. Comrie certainly was. Etc. It’s the nature of the beast when you are getting players this way and we should have understood that from the moment we signed him. Trying to compare him to Barrie or subban just isn’t being intellectually honest about all realities around which we signed the player and the rules governing his salary.

    This should help us realize that the elc is one of the most important windows we have for a player — send nurse back to junior! Leon too!

    The bigger concern though is that this mgt team is becoming consistent with its desire to overpay. Nikitin.clarkson. pouliot’s term. Gagner. Etc.

    Anyhow. I had to stop in. Barrie isn’t a reasonable comparison, and typically this is a reasonable place.

  12. Woodguy says:

    supernova,

    Would you trade Schultz for Barrrie?
    I wouldn’t, so innately I have to be willing to pay more for what I have.
    Barrie’s biggest obstacles will be?
    Is he really as good as he showed last year? And his size (oiler fans would call him MA Bergeron)
    Barrie is absolutely one of the reason the AVs went from last to first in the west last year.

    You’re kinda all over the place.

    I’d trade Jultz for Barrie in a heartbeat.

    Check this out:

    Barrie was a 50.1CF% last year.

    His 2 most common partners were:

    Guenin 349min
    Holden 299min

    Guenin and Barrie together 47.1%
    Guenin apart 43.4%

    Holden and Barrie together 51%
    Holden apart 46%

    He’s taking fairly meh Dmen and still doing the job.

    Can’t say that about Jultz.

    Can’t say that about MAB either.

    Early returns suggest that he’s the goods.

  13. jfry says:

    Here is wheeler’s cap history. He came in making too much money. Signed a second contract for 1year at slightly less and then signed a two year bridge contract at basically his rookie salary.then his signed for the big cash.http://www.capgeek.com/player/218

  14. LMHF#1 says:

    I’m still wondering why no one has tried running out a superior even strength line exclusively (or almost) at evens all night, and relied on secondary and tertiary guys for the PP. It would change roster makeup for sure (more room for the Arcobellos and Omarks of the world), plus it would end this “he’s only top six” bullcrap.

    Could this work? I think so.

  15. Melman says:

    Woodguy,

    to add to your point – based on physicality of Schultz’s game, I don’t think their size difference really matters much

  16. Melman says:

    LMHF#1,

    except usually your best ES guys are also your most skilled players who will have a higher probability of success on the PP

  17. flyfish1168 says:

    B S:
    Rod from Viking,

    I think that the important thing to differentiate with Schultz is his skill vs his ability, where skill is the range of skills he has and the maximum extent of them he has shown. This includes his skating speed, lateral movement, passing, and shooting. It does not include physical play and pushing players off the puck. Ability then is the average effectiveness of his application of these skills. Justin Schultz has shown elite skills, but he has yet to demonstrate overall high end ability. Banking on Schultz is bank on his ability catching up to his skills. If you hold his skills in high regard, then your willing to pay the extra to keep him around (vs say Barrie, or to hit a sore point Petry), but the one year on his deal means that if his abilities don’t improve, you don’t need to keep paying him.

    JMHO. I hate how Schulz came into the league by the loop hole. I do hope the NHL closes this soon or we will see this happen more and more.

    As for Justin I agree he appears to have an intriguing skill set as a 24 year old. These can be looked at as a product he brings to the table. He now needs to sell them which would translate into more points, and better +/- , defensive numbers and advance stats. He hasn’t done this yet and now we pay for potential. If you watch” Dragons Den” not one of these smart business men pay for potential. Show me the sales 1st. Keep in mind Justin is 24 years old that is in the same age bracket as Doughty, Ekman-Larsson , Pietrangelo and Karlsson. I would trade Justin and my 2015 1st round for any one of these players.JMHO

  18. LMHF#1 says:

    Melman:
    LMHF#1,

    except usually your best ES guys are also your most skilled players who will have a higher probability of success on the PP

    But this is all about out-scoring, right? What I’m thinking is, wouldn’t the marginal gain of playing them 20/night at EV be better than the loss at 5v4?

  19. nycoil says:

    Woodguy:
    supernova,

    Would you trade Schultz for Barrrie?
    I wouldn’t, so innately I have to be willing to pay more for what I have.
    Barrie’s biggest obstacles will be?
    Is he really as good as he showed last year? And his size (oiler fans would call him MA Bergeron)
    Barrie is absolutely one of the reason the AVs went from last to first in the west last year.

    You’re kinda all over the place.

    I’d trade Jultz for Barrie in a heartbeat.

    Check this out:

    Barrie wasa 50.1CF% last year.

    His 2 most common partners were:

    Guenin 349min
    Holden 299min

    Guenin and Barrie together 47.1%
    Guenin apart 43.4%

    Holden and Barrie together 51%
    Holden apart 46%

    He’s taking fairly meh Dmen and still doing the job.

    Can’t say that about Jultz.

    Can’t say that about MAB either.

    Early returns suggest that he’s the goods.

    I’m with Woodguy on this one. Barrie is a really nice young D with a well-rounded game already. I’d take him over Schultz as well.

    Schultz’ camp is showing a building track record of being very savvy, and they took the Oilers to the woodshed on this negotiation. $3.675M guaranteed when he made only a little over half that last year based on bonuses is such a huge win for the player. And that becomes the basis for qualifying offers going forward. I mean, checkmate, Craig.

  20. russ99 says:

    Barrie didn’t get a crazy overpay on his entry-level deal.

    Case closed.

    Also, age comparisons don’t wash, since those other players didn’t play 4 years in NCAA. If we sell Schultz now, its very low, considering it’s after his tough 2nd NHL year under a rookie coach who used the swarm part of the year.

    BTW: If you’re judging your elite puck mover and offensive defenseman by hitting, physical play and pushing players off the puck, you’re really looking in the wrong place.

    Did we question players like Bergeron and Visnovsky like this?

  21. Hammers says:

    Looking back on Hall’s season and what is expected is a hard thing to do as getting more points is doubtful but more goals is what should happen .Part of the reason I wouldn’t mind him being on a different line , say with Arco & Purcell is whatever line Hall is on will draw the number 1 “D” pairing from the other team thereby giving RNH , Ebs & ?? (Perron or Yak ) some softer minutes . Eakins & his coaches have a chance to show some different looks this year and that’s what I’m hoping for .

  22. flyfish1168 says:

    russ99,

    Interesting way at looking at Justin. But I do believe you have to look at age. It will show the window of potential growth before the decline and life changes gets in the way. Age limits your ceiling in athletes. I don’t like paying this kind of money for potential or a one trick pony. If you look at my list above you will see these guys at Justins age brought the goods to the table already and Justin is still looked at as potential. JMHO

  23. Pouzar says:

    JS = TBD for me.

    Cheering for him big time.

  24. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy,

    Looking at Last years Player Usage Charts, JS and Barrie were in completely different quadrants.
    Barrie was sheltered and JS was thrown to the wolves. I am keeping JS till further notice.

  25. speeds says:

    Lowetide, from the article:
    The one thing no one has absolutely confirmed to me is that Justin Schultz as an RFA is identical to Barrie. DOES the fact that Schultz was signed originally as a UFA unhook the Oilers from the pay grade of a drafted player who went the more traditional route?

    Two separate answers. No, Barrie was not identical to Schultz, in that Schultz had arbitration rights and Barrie did not. However, once neither Schultz nor the Oilers opted for arbitration, they were pretty much in the same boat.

    No, the fact that Schultz was originally signed as a UFA doesn’t “unhook” EDM from the pay grade. He had a QO under 1M. He had arb rights and didn’t exercise them, presumably because he felt EDM would pay him more than the arbitration market would say he was worth. Given the final deal, I think that was a good call. Not without risk but he’d have also had a lot more information than I did.

  26. Lowetide says:

    speeds: Two separate answers.No, Barrie was not identical to Schultz, in that Schultz had arbitration rights and Barrie did not. However, once neither Schultz nor the Oilers opted for arbitration, they were pretty much in the same boat.

    No, the fact that Schultz was originally signed as a UFA doesn’t “unhook” EDM from the pay grade.He had a QO under 1M.He had arb rights and didn’t exercise them, presumably because he felt EDM would pay him more than the arbitration market would say he was worth.Given the final deal, I think that was a good call.Not without risk but he’d have also had a lot more information than I did.

    THIS is why he’s the king!! Sincere thanks, speeds

  27. soup says:

    Schultz overpay? Sure, but only one year in a year where there is cap room. Hope he lives up to it.

    When comparing Schultz to Barrie, keep in mind that Barrie played with a helluva lot better group of centers than did young Schultz. His well rounded game may have as much or more to do with team effects than individual skills and aptitude. Not saying in the slightest that Schultz is heads and sholders better, but comparing the two is not as simple as it appears – in my view.

    I played D for the better part of 40 years, at all kinds of levels. Amazing how much better my coach thought I was when I had a good centre on the ice with me. Equally, amazing how much crap our centers caught when I couldn’t box out the slot…

  28. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Woodguy,

    Looking at Last years Player Usage Charts, JS and Barrie were in completely different quadrants.
    Barrie was sheltered and JS was thrown to the wolves. I am keeping JS till further notice.

    Very good point.

    Easier sledding and a better partner might do wonders for Jultz.

    I still like Barrie better.

    For the record I have been one of the few saying “wait until we see Jultz with a better partner or easier minutes if he’s stuck with Ference.

    I hope we see one or another this year.

  29. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy,

    Any “seen him good” moments? I couldn’t pick Barrie out of a line.

  30. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
      (Quote)  (Reply)

    I just looked at Barrie here:

    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=COL&f4=D&f7=40-&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    While he got the ozone push, he wasn’t sheltered QC wise and was seeing 2nd comp.

    Then you look at Jultz here:

    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=EDM&f4=D&f7=30-&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    He wasn’t getting the ozone push Barrie was, but the QC is very close and 2nd comp as well.

    They were deployed closer than you indicate.

    Which graphs were you looking at?

  31. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Woodguy,

    Any “seen him good” moments? I couldn’t pick Barrie out of a line.

    Yeah, he’s pretty decisive with the puck.

    Quick decisions and good decisions.

    Not a lollygagger either.

  32. nycoil says:

    LT,
    Wasn’t aware you were a Ramones fan as well. Did you just play on the 53 assists for the title, because I was reading more into it and trying to figure out if you were making a social commentary as well here.

    By the way, with the gentrification of nearly the entire isle of Manhattan complete, that spot is hardly seedy anymore.
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-RVfBFv3PBa0/UbAIng0RPMI/AAAAAAAACcQ/q3FKPsIlyy0/s1600/DSCF4655.JPG

  33. malinpaul says:

    The one thing people aren’t bringing up in this debate is that the Oilers will ultimately have to sign Yak, Nurse, Klef, Leon, and the #1 in 2015. When this team is firing on all cylinders it will be pricey.

    We could really use a few value deals out of these players. If Schultz works out (I am in the camp that is sipping on the Schultz kool aid), we will end up paying him TOP DOLLAR.

    I would have gambled on Schultz and tried to get a 4-6 year deal done – maybe 4.5M?

    Like I said, I see him scoring goals and learning D. Maybe you eat a bit of salary trading him at the end of this year if he doesn’t pan out all the way, but teams pay for offence and overate their ability to teach D, so I still think the downside could have been managed.

    I bet the 1 year deal bites MacT in the A$$.

  34. Ca$h-Money! says:

    The thing that is most often ignored when complaining about the Schultz contract is the reality of the situation Schultz was thrown into. There is a pretty reasonable argument, especially amongst the traditionalists, that JS was the #1 defenceman on the team for both of the last 2 years, or at least in the conversation. He played the minutes to justify it anyway (I’m in the camp that Petry was that guy, but on a minutes perspective the argument is there).

    So you take a rookie, play him as a #1 dman, with mixed to poor results, for the entirety of his contract, and then you come back and ask him to take a big pay cut…. good luck with that. Sure, you’ll get him locked into a contract, but you’ll also guarantee that he will “PK Subban 2014” you the minute he’s able, which means he will either

    1. Flat out leave, or
    2. Expect to be paid in full

    Which is not ideal in the event he reaches his potential (you still want him at $6m/year or close to it for an extended period of time, not more). So to overpay now, when it doesn’t matter so much, on a shorter term contract, is ideal. Plus, this year you’ve put the pieces in place whereby he won’t have to play 23 minutes a night, so if he doesn’t excel again you’ve got a much stronger case under which to realign expectation.

    In short; you can’t play a guy 23 minutes a night from the moment he steps into the NHL for the length of his contract, and then come back and say “but the result weren’t exceptional, despite the coach continuing to play you like that, so instead of giving you a number you will be content with we’re going to pay you like Tyson Barrie”.

  35. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: I just looked at Barrie here:

    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=COL&f4=D&f7=40-&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    While he got the ozone push, he wasn’t sheltered QC wise and was seeing 2nd comp.

    Then you look at Jultz here:

    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2013_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=EDM&f4=D&f7=30-&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    He wasn’t getting the ozone push Barrie was, but the QC is very close and 2nd comp as well.

    They were deployed closer than you indicate.

    Which graphs were you looking at?

    WG, I was just looking at the Player Usage Charts on HockeyAbstract.com

  36. nycoil says:

    malinpaul,

    There has been some suggestion from the likes of Stauffer, that Schultz’ camp wouldn’t sign the McDonagh deal, which is what you suggested. It’s likely his camp was looking for the “core” contract range to sign long term.

    Everyone also seems to be assuming it was MacT that went for the one-year deal. Based on what evidence? Isn’t it just as likely it was Schultz’ camp that said the dollars weren’t enough on a long deal so they opted for the short one?

  37. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: WG, I was just looking at the Player Usage Charts on HockeyAbstract.com

    I though he uses BTN’s QC as well as somekindofninja

    Did he switch to 5v5 TOI/60 as a QC measure?

  38. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: WG, I was just looking at the Player Usage Charts on HockeyAbstract.com

    Ok, I see it.

    Change the Y axis to straight corsi and Bariie’s QC jumps a bit above Jultz.

    The default is RelCor on Y-axis

  39. B S says:

    flyfish1168,

    The thing with comparing Schultz with players who made the jump at a younger age is that they have more NHL experience than him, and have played through more of their contracts.

  40. speeds says:

    Why do people feel MacT had to acquiesce to the term Schultz wanted? If Schultz only wants a one year deal, once arb is no longer an option and his QO has expired, MacT is just as within his rights to insist on a 5 year deal as Schultz is to insist on a one year deal. I don’t see how either would have been more unreasonable in those positions than the other, with the caveat that it depends on the verbal between the parties leading up to that point in time, which we aren’t (as far as I know) privy to.

  41. Gordies Elbow says:

    Average salary of the top 50 defensemen in the league is $5.725 million this year, and the cap has been growing at 7% per year. Projecting out, a 6 year deal would purchase 4 years of UFA, leaving JS at 30, with one more contract available to him. If the cap increases by 5% per year (less than historical growth,) the cap goes from $69m this year, to $88m in 2019. I believe that Wade Arnott expects that his client would be in the top 50 defenders, so it’s not unreasonable that Wade would project his value to be 8% of his teams overall cap (5.75m/69m)

    To get that, he’d be looking at $37.5m/6y, or around $6.25m aav. Clearly, he’s not worth that amount at this stage of his career.

    There are only two deals that were palatable to either side. Long term, with a significant gap in dollars offered or accepted, or a single year, “show me” contract. Neither side budged, so they went with plan B.

    Could MacT have negotiated harder? Don’t know, and don’t know what the impacts of doing that would be. Distraction at camp, when its critical to get off to a good start? Bad blood between player and management?

  42. Frank The Dog says:

    Schultz has the intellect to play defence, does he have the will? We’ll see this year.

    Schultz definitely has a place on the team but at what price. He’s the kind of player that worries me, not on skill set, but on overpay. How many do we see, that have playoff runs cut short due to lack of depth caused by overpaying one or two “must have” players like Schultz?

    Look at Pittsburgh, and perhaps Chicago in the years to come. I’ve always liked the NFL Patriot model during their Super Bowl runs. No player was ever allowed to become bigger than the team.

    IMHO I think the odds are against seeing Petry or Schultz on this team for the 2015/6 season. Petry because he wants to play somewhere else, Schultz because he’s likely to find a team out there that will overpay for him to a greater degree than MacT. We’ll see and I will be pleasantly surprised if Schultz actually does step up, and accepts a payday that does not cripple the team.

  43. OilClog says:

    This is going to be the best Oiler team since 06, Hall seems to be lined up to have a Eric Staal like season in Carolina when he lead them to the promise land.

    Ducks – going to be scary good, Getz/Kesler.. Damn
    Kings – They’ll be the Kings.
    Oilers – big gaping hole down the middle but have you seen how ugly the other teams have become.
    Sharks – too much of a soap opera, no changes since that ugly collapse.
    Nucks – if it wasn’t for Calgary… one Sedin goes down they’re below Calgary.
    Flames – Hendricks/Gaz/Pinzotto for these games, should be ugly.

  44. Ca$h-Money! says:

    OilClog:
    This is going to be the best Oiler team since 06, Hall seems to be lined up to have a Eric Staal like season in Carolina when he lead them to the promise land.

    Ducks – going to be scary good, Getz/Kesler.. Damn
    Kings – They’ll be the Kings.
    Oilers – big gaping hole down the middle but have you seen how ugly the other teams have become.
    Sharks – too much of a soap opera, no changes since that ugly collapse.
    Nucks – if it wasn’t for Calgary… one Sedin goes down they’re below Calgary.
    Flames – Hendricks/Gaz/Pinzotto for these games, should be ugly.

    If we play even one game against the sharks next year where we don’t get outshot I will be hugely surprised. Bye eye that team eats our lunch more than anyone outside of Anaheim over the last couple of years.. if it’s not 60 shots against it’s a 6 goal first period.

  45. godot10 says:

    oliveoilers:
    .This is why I think DE will be identifying what he believes are problems and will be directing Tyler as to what to look at,

    This would be terrible. MacT and Eakins had no clue they were destroying Taylor Hall last year, until Dellow pointed it out, so they would have directed Dellow’s attention elsewhere instead of at the biggest potential problem. Dellow was driven by data anomalies to look at why Hall’s Corsi had collapsed.

    Dellow’s role should be to look to the data for anomalies to direct him, and go to the video to figure out potential reasons, and then define and explain the anomaly to Eakins and stakeholders, and collectively discussion potential solutions.

    The whole point of Big Data is to let data guide the investigation, and not the pre-disposed hypotheses or guesses of the coaching staff.

  46. Lloyd B. says:

    If I am getting the gist of this thread the concern is we will have too many good players? And they will be winners AND winning cups so they will command the big bucks that will necessitate breaking up the team? How did we go from re-build to dismantling the team already? We need the season to start. We’re getting loopy.

  47. gcw_rocks says:

    Woodguy,

    Barrie has similar offence as well. He moves the puck very well. If you watched the Avs in the playoffs last season you saw his impact before and after.

    He is trending ahead of Schultz, and is younger and cheaper.

  48. Lowetide says:

    Lloyd B.:
    If I am getting the gist of this thread the concern is we will have too many good players?And they will be winners AND winning cups so they will command the big bucks that will necessitate breaking up the team?How did we go from re-build to dismantling the team already?We need the season to start. We’re getting loopy.

    The gist of this thread is the Oilers love Justin Schultz SO much they’re willing to pay crazy.

  49. godot10 says:

    1) There is the Barrie contract, but there is also the Gardiner contract, 5 years x $4 million AAV, 4 RFA years, and 1 UFA year ($3.5 million per RFA year, and $6 million for 1 UFA year).
    2) Schultz was played too high in the roster without a capable partner.
    3) The Oilers baited-and-switched the coach on him. They gave him no help.
    4) There was dysfunction in the locker room last year (admitted to by the GM)
    5) I think Schultz actually did NOT have arbitration rights.
    6) His leverage was the criticality of the start to the season for MacT and Eakins.
    7) He has powerhouse agents who’ve cornered the D-representation market, and don’t care about things like 2nd contract, 3rd contract, or waiting to be pai. They want their player paid what they think he is worth.

    It is an overpay based on the short term, but if he sucks or underperforms, and you just qualify him a year at a time to UFA status….it would be 4x$3.65 which is not absurd, without the actual risk of a 4-year contract.

  50. speeds says:

    godot10:
    1) There is the Barrie contract, but there is also the Gardiner contract,5 years x $4 million AAV, 4 RFA years, and 1 UFA year ($3.5 million per RFA year, and $6 million for 1 UFA year).
    2) Schultz was played too high in the roster without a capable partner.
    3) The Oilers baited-and-switched the coach on him.They gave him no help.
    4) There was dysfunction in the locker room last year (admitted to by the GM)
    5) I think Schultz actually did NOT have arbitration rights.
    6) His leverage was the criticality of the start to the season for MacT and Eakins.
    7) He has powerhouse agents who’ve cornered the D-representation market, and don’t care about things like 2nd contract, 3rd contract, or waiting to be pai.They want their player paid what they think he is worth.

    It is an overpay based on the short term, but if he sucks or underperforms, and you just qualify him a year at a time to UFA status….it would be 4x$3.65 which is not absurd, without the actual risk of a 4-year contract.

    He did have arb rights, IIRC, MacT even made mention of that during his post signing press conference.

    If he underperforms, it would still have been better to pay him less on a one year deal.

  51. flyfish1168 says:

    B S:
    flyfish1168,

    The thing with comparing Schultz with players who made the jump at a younger age is that they have more NHL experience than him, and have played through more of their contracts.

    Yes you are correct that is what I did. I wanted to show how far Justin is compared to these players But his asking price is not where it he thinks he is in comparison. Justin is already behind in his develop even after the same amount of games played by the others without factoring in his age. Justin or his agent is jumping ahead on the dollars game vs stats game. So he open the can of warms. It would be interesting to see what Justin would fetch in the open market. I do believe our 2015 1st round pick and Justin would not bring back any one of these players Doughty, Ekman-Larsson , Pietrangelo, Karlsson or Subban. JMHO

    malinpaul:
    The one thing people aren’t bringing up in this debate is that the Oilers will ultimately have to sign Yak, Nurse, Klef, Leon, and the #1 in 2015. When this team is firing on all cylinders it will be pricey.

    We could really use a few value deals out of these players. If Schultz works out (I am in the camp that is sipping on the Schultz kool aid), we will end up paying him TOP DOLLAR.

    I would have gambled on Schultz and tried to get a 4-6 year deal done – maybe 4.5M?

    Like I said, I see him scoring goals and learning D. Maybe you eat a bit of salary trading him at the end of this year if he doesn’t pan out all the way, but teams pay for offence and overate their ability to teach D, so I still think the downside could have been managed.

    I bet the 1 year deal bites MacT in the A$$.

    You share the same concern that I have and that is why I am jumping all over this contract now. I do believe he will always be weak to mediocre on the defensive side and offensive is good but not near elite. JMHO

  52. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: The gist of this thread is the Oilers love Justin Schultz SO much they’re willing to pay crazy.

    LT I love him too but I would love him more at a less dollar. lol

  53. Melman says:

    godot10,

    I missed the admitted locker room dysfunction – are you referring to DE “growing pains” or was there intra-player related discord?

  54. Melman says:

    flyfish1168,

    Maybe, but he’s also a shiny enough toy that if he plateaus at mediocrity you’ll still likely be able to trade him for a good return. Trading him away too soon might be a colossal kick to the beets

  55. Bruce McCurdy says:

    gcw_rocks:
    Woodguy,

    Barrie has similar offence as well.He moves the puck very well.If you watched the Avs in the playoffs last season you saw his impact before and after.

    He is trending ahead of Schultz, and is younger and cheaper.

    I was going to make a similar point and will make it anyway. To my eye the turning point of that Wilds-Avs series was when that miserable fuck Matt Cooke took out Barrie. COL had a 2-0 lead in the series, Game 3 was scoreless at the time. Barrie was 0-2-2, +3 and Very impressive to that point in the series, playing big minutes. The Avs were on their back foot a good deal of the remainder of the series, which of course they ultimately lost.

    Cooke wound up reinstated midway through Round 2 so will never even lose a dollar of salary for that vicious cheap shot. Pisses me off still.

  56. Lowetide says:

    Bruce: You’re mistaken. Matt Cooke used to be dirty but he’s different now. You should read up on this stuff. Heart of gold now.

    🙂

  57. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Btw, that Matt Cooke incident resulted in my favourite reader poll to date that I’ve run over at CoH. I periodically will run a “pre-suspension video” of a controversial incident, and always include a reader poll about how many games the offender deserves. I always begin the options with “no suspension, it was just a hockey play” and end with “throw the bum out of the league”. This time, that latter option actually carried a clear majority — not merely a plurality among the 5 choices, but 54% of the vote. Pretty heavy vote too, >2,000 participants. Usually that option is a throwaway that gets trace amounts but people were and presumably still are seriously pissed at this dude as a frequent / multiple / habitual / repeat offender.

  58. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide:
    Bruce: You’re mistaken. Matt Cooke used to be dirty but he’s different now. You should read up on this stuff. Heart of gold now.

    Yeah, I’m sure recent victims Ryan McDonagh, Erik Karlsson, Sam Gagner and Tyson Barrie have reinstated him on their Christmas card lists.

    I wouldn’t doubt that Cooke has caused more injuries than any other NHL player in the 51 years I’ve been watching this game.

  59. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    What is fun to contemplate going into this season…..an injury to Crosby for any length of games and Taylor Hall is in the mix for the Art Ross. He is that good.

  60. Frank The Dog says:

    Well Oiled and Enthusiastic:
    What is fun to contemplate going into this season…..an injury to Crosby for any length of games and Taylor Hall is in the mix for the Art Ross. He is that good.

    FFS. No injury to any player is ever a good thing. Not Crosby, not anyone. Ass kicking a bully, yes, like SMac gave that oaf from Calgary a while back. But injuries, no thank you.

  61. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    Frank – I’m not suggesting an injury to Crosby is at all good in any way. What I’m suggesting is if Crosby is healthy, he is a virtual lock for the Art Ross amongst all peers. On reading my comment after your response, I can see you reaching that conclusion. My poor grammar as was clearly lost in translation.

  62. Big Dan says:

    I have watched many Av games. Their team would have beat Minnesota had Cooke not cheap shotted Barrie. The difference was night and day.

    We are hoping Schultz turns into what Barrie already is. The kid is a game breaker and the most underrated player in the league. Those c’s are better because of him not the other way around.

    If Schultz does, he’ll get his $6m. If he doesn’t, Mact will reup petry (if we will come under $5m) and trade Schultz. Big year for justin.

  63. hags9k says:

    We have to have faith that MacT sees this one year overpay as “ok, but now you show me.”
    (voice as Milton in Office Space)

    I have faith in Jultz’s ability to round out his game and reach an all star calibre level. Norris might be pushing it. And also I have faith in MacT’s ability to swallow a bitter pill and cut bait next summer if need be.

    I have no idea what this club has done to earn so much of this faith but here I am…ready to take another heartbreak right square on the chin. Actually Milton sent by initech to the basement has a lot of parallels to life as an Oiler fan….but I digress.

    Getting back on point, yes, Taylor Hall is going to put a hurt on the NHL for the next decade, and Art Ross is certainly a possibility. (although I still think sweet lil Nuge beats him to it)

    GOILERS!!

  64. nycoil says:

    speeds,

    Happy to share my info with you which says the exact opposite, but near everyone else seems to think it was MacT who wanted one year. All I am saying is how do you know?

  65. supernova says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    nycoil,

    Woodguy,

    Pouzar,

    Sorry for the late reply was traveling yesterday. Got to see NFL opener in Seattle unfortunately my packers looked a lot like my Oilers. It’s all good.

    Woodguy,

    My points were meant that Barrie had a very good year on a team that shot up the standings.

    Are both sustainable?

    I think Barrie is delivering very well and is on pace to be a Kris Letang type that well exceeds his draft spot.

    For me it’s still to early in both of their careers to know who will be better. Barrie’s last year says he has a high ceiling but it might end up being the best of his career as well, Schultz lovers and haters pretty much are in sync and saying that his last year was the low end of his expectations.

    For me I take Schultz over Barrie for this coming season and for the career.

    On the contract side the two organizations handle negotiations completely different Colorado loves to grind it out lately over deals if you aren’t their Captain (great deal in that guy) and the Oilers overpay very willingly.

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