I WISH TODAY COULD BE TOMORROW

Edmonton enjoyed a glorious summer day on Saturday, and for a few hours we cheered on the Eskimos (well for an hour or so, anyway) and put away thoughts of the coming frost (chilly September nights in EDM are one of my favorite things about the city). It’s a short-term thing, you can see winter coming all around you. Kids are back in school, the leaves are turning, Oiler kids headed to Penticton are tweeting out that little airplane icon with YEG next to it, and of course the forecast tomorrow is rain and 4 degrees (which may mean that four letter word that rhymes with blow). petry screen shot 3Jonathan Willis wrote a quality piece over at the Cult of Hockey about Jeff Petry, with former coach Steve Smith singing his praises. We know Dallas Eakins loved him, Smith loved him, and yet we have a one-year deal. This leads us to question where the disconnect happened, and there are only three options:

  • Craig MacTavish and the management group can’t get past their own vision of what a quality two-way defenseman looks like. I think they prefer the Oscar Klefbom template, with the Swede giving them more of a physical presence and ability to win battles.
  • Petry sees the big dollars next season and asked for something very large and very long (say $5.5 times 5) and the Oilers couldn’t get over the sticker shock.
  • Petry simply doesn’t want to stay.

I’ve come to the conclusion Craig MacTavish spent Jeff Petry’s money on Mark Fayne. I’m wildly disappointed the team will proceed with Fayne and Justin Schultz as the 1-2 RH D for the next several years, and there’s lots of evidence Petry would be a superior choice for one of those two roles. The Oilers saw fit to give Petry his freedom July 1, and one suspects he will not give it up for less than a monster contract.

Of all the things the Oilers talked themselves into this summer, I count this one as the most unforgivable. The 2C conundrum is a difficult problem. The Jeff Petry contract is a potentially devastating miscalculation.

hamilton3The Oilers are in good shape in regard to the 50-man list as they enter training camp, they could pluck a contract via trade or waivers pretty easily. If you have a minute this Sunday morning, check out the number of minor league RFA and UFA on that list next summer. MacT has put himself in a position to turn over (or retain) a large group of players next year. It’s taken this long to purge the group and I expect he’ll finish the job in 2015 summer. Curtis Hamilton photo by Rob Ferguson all rights reserved.

chase1

Some leagues and Oil prospects are playing already. Here’s a quick review of the stats so far:

  1. Greg Chase has played in two Calgary Hitmen games, and has two goals. Can’t wait to see this guy in TC.
  2. Anton Slepyshev has an assist in the KHL after 2 games. He’s playing about 8.5 minutes a night, I wrote about him at ON yesterday.
  3. Marc-Olivier Roy played two pre-season games with Quebec, and had an assist. He also played some center.
  4. Ben Betker has played three games so far in WHL play, he’s been tall in all of them.
  5. Daniil Zharkov has played in two KHL games, no boxcars and just over three minutes per game.
  6. Keven Bouchard is having a bumpy preseason with Val d’Or and there’s someone outplaying him by some margin.
  7. Jackson Houck played one pre-season game with the Vancouver Giants, crickets.

gazzolaOilers still haven’t released the roster yet, which absolutely convinces me there are players still making their decisions. This should be a very interesting list. Will we see David Musil and Laurent Brossoit, as had been reported early this summer? Fun days ahead. Make sure you have your windshield scraper in all the cars, especially the one your wife drives. As you age together, there are fewer things she needs you for. 🙂

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81 Responses to "I WISH TODAY COULD BE TOMORROW"

  1. oliveoilers says:

    there are only three options:
    •Craig MacTavish and the management group can’t get past their own vision of what a quality two-way defenseman looks like. I think they prefer the Oscar Klefbom template, with the Swede giving them more of a physical presence and ability to win battles.
    •Petry sees the big dollars next season and asked for something very large and very long (say $5.5 times 5) and the Oilers couldn’t get over the sticker shock.
    •Petry simply doesn’t want to stay.

    LT, option 4, which is tied to #2. Not so much sticker shock, I think that the Oilers believe one of MM, OK or DN will be equal or even exceed Petry within the term of a long contract. All of them would be on value until it came to re-signing, but with potentially a higher ceiling than Jeffy Boy. That will be the guy that gets the $5.5m. A penny saved is a penny earned, and the Oilers are simply playing the odds and covering the spread without being hand-cuffed by a contract to a player who might not be here long term. If Petry offered maybe $4m for 5yrs, then maybe mngmt would have jumped at that. Also, there is the ‘seen him good’ of when MM started to play with Jeff, it seemed like it was the rookie that calmed the vet, not the other way around. Whether this was Petry being more defensively astute to cover MM, I don’t know. To my eye, anyways.

  2. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Tough to say what Petry is looking for. He definitely has the hammer now. He would look good at $4×4 next year but instead will probably get $5 mill per season if he goes to market. I’m predicting a later than usual Katz apology letter followed by a Petry trade for a 2nd round pick at the deadline.

  3. Hammers says:

    Petry I agree is the biggest mistake we have seen McT make .In fact rather than that contract I would have preferred a trade with a team from the East like NYI or the Penguins for the center we need . Maybe he tried but his trading partners don’t see Petry the way we do . Funny thing is there may still be time especially if Nurse or Klefbom prove they belong . As for the rest I guess we must wait .

  4. Lowetide says:

    oliveoilers:
    there are only three options:
    •Craig MacTavish and the management group can’t get past their own vision of what a quality two-way defenseman looks like. I think they prefer the Oscar Klefbom template, with the Swede giving them more of a physical presence and ability to win battles.
    •Petry sees the big dollars next season and asked for something very large and very long (say $5.5 times 5) and the Oilers couldn’t get over the sticker shock.
    •Petry simply doesn’t want to stay.

    LT, option 4, which is tied to #2.Not so much sticker shock, I think that the Oilers believe one of MM, OK or DN will be equal or even exceed Petry within the term of a long contract.All of them would be on value until it came to re-signing, but with potentially a higher ceiling than Jeffy Boy.That will be the guy that gets the $5.5m.A penny saved is a penny earned, and the Oilers are simply playing the odds and covering the spread without being hand-cuffed by a contract to a player who might not be here long term.If Petry offered maybe $4m for 5yrs, then maybe mngmt would have jumped at that.Also, there is the ‘seen him good’ of when MM started to play with Jeff, it seemed like it was the rookie that calmed the vet, not the other way around.Whether this was Petry being more defensively astute to cover MM, I don’t know.To my eye, anyways.

    You still sign Petry and then deal him for value when the kids are ready.

  5. mumbai max says:

    I think he could also just be playing it smart and taking a wait and see approach regarding the whole landscape.
    He did not go to college for nothing. It is the clever thing to do to put yourself in a UFA situation.
    He asked for the moon so he would be able to be free. However if he does well and the team wins, I would not be surprised to see a 5×5 at some point in the spring. To put the blame on MacT is to not give enough credit to the player and his situation.

  6. Hammers says:

    Just looked at the 50 man list and as I thought in an earlier post there are 4 players who could be drawing a bonus . Klefbom , Marincin, Yak & Leon and if they all hit there maximum hit McT has no money left for any players unless a trade is made . Those 4 have over $ 5 mill available to them with Yak being the highest . That may play into any decisions on getting a “C” so it has to be 1 out worth say 3.5 for 1 in worth up to 4.5 or so .Time to think this through the way Mct probably is .

  7. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    Just looked at the 50 man list and as I thought in an earlier post there are 4 players who could be drawing a bonus . Klefbom , Marincin, Yak & Leon and if they all hit there maximum hit McT has no money left for any players unless a trade is made . Those 4 have over $ 5 mill available to themwith Yak being the highest . That may play into any decisions on getting a “C” so it has to be 1 out worth say 3.5 for 1 in worth up to 4.5 or so .Time to think this through the way Mct probably is .

    Meh. The cap next season is going way up, and the Oilers have cost certainty on most of their impact players. If that’s the way MacT is thinking, I’m bitterly disappointed. You’d think he’d go all-in to save his coach, and next season isn’t promised to MacTavish either.

  8. Mr DeBakey says:

    oliveoilers: LT, option 4, which is tied to #2. Not so much sticker shock, I think that the Oilers believe one of MM, OK or DN will be equal or even exceed Petry within the term of a long contract.

    Petry is a rightie, unlike those other three.
    Petry is good now, unlike those other three.
    The teams that win games have little or no potential.
    Its all realized.

    oliveoilers: Also, there is the ‘seen him good’ of when MM started to play with Jeff, it seemed like it was the rookie that calmed the vet, not the other way around.

    Uh, no.
    Marincin was clearly in over his head on a regular basis last season.
    [I saw it plain as day].

    Can you imagine how good Petry would’ve looked [and Gilbert before him] if he’d had an opportunity to play with a partner who was better than him?

  9. RexLibris says:

    The question I have is whether the Stars will dust off Derian Hatcher’s old #2 for Petry when he signs there next summer.

    That or he arm-wrestles Brendan Smith for it in Detroit.

    But I’m sure that 2nd round pick we’ll get will turn out to be a promising young 4th line winger who can penalty kill and play the enforcer.

  10. Ray says:

    Unfortunatly, I see Petry looking very good playing on a pairing with Nik Kronwall in Detroit.

    Now if that happens I just hope a quality 3rd line centre is coming back.

    How has Helm’s health been?

  11. oliveoilers says:

    Lowetide: You still sign Petry and then deal him for value when the kids are ready.

    Hah! Sorry mate, but that is pure fan talk! I like Petry, but we have to look at the reality. He is an OK d-man on a crappy team. What makes you think other GMs give us value for him, particularly if they know we HAVE to trade either him or one of the kids? At some point, the overpay has to stop, or at least become bearable. It seems to be a running belief with us that we can just make trades whenever it pleases US, for whatever we’d like. I direct you to the current 2C saga. I guess we just have to agree to disagree! Maybe “You still sign Petry for value and then deal him for value when the kids are ready.” reads a little better. 😉

  12. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: Meh. The cap next season is going way up, and the Oilers have cost certainty on most of their impact players. If that’s the way MacT is thinking, I’m bitterly disappointed. You’d think he’d go all-in to save his coach, and next season isn’t promised to MacTavish either.

    We have 50 Million commited next year and have Petry a UFA ; Marincin , Schultz & Yak to sign let alone probably Arco and or Lander .Lets say the cap goes up 10% so McT has 26 Mill or so to play with . Yak has the year we all hope for and his at 6 , Marincin will be 3.5 ; Schultz gets the 6 he wants and all of a sudden we have 10 -11 mill left . If as many think Petry wants 5 to 5.5 we would end up in the same place as this year with no Arco or Lander or even say they fall into that 10% we may have 5 mill left . Bonuses are part of contracts and can’t be overlooked either this year or next .As for him saving his coach it should be about saving his team . Coaches get paid to do a job just like players .Hell right now I want Yak & Leon to hit there bonus money because if they do we have a better chance to be in the playoffs .

  13. Lowetide says:

    oliveoilers: Hah!Sorry mate, but that is pure fan talk!I like Petry, but we have to look at the reality.He is an OK d-man on a crappy team.What makes you think other GMs give us value for him, particularly if they know we HAVE to trade either him or one of the kids?At some point, the overpay has to stop, or at least become bearable.It seems to be a running belief with us that we can just make trades whenever it pleases US, for whatever we’d like.I direct you to the current 2C saga.I guess we just have to agree to disagree!Maybe “You still sign Petry for value and then deal him for value when the kids are ready.” reads a little better.;-)

    This is exactly the problem with talking about Petry. Most Oiler fans just don’t know what they have in him. Jeff Petry is a quality top 4 NHL defenseman with miles of track ahead. Full stop.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Hammers: We have 50 Million commited next year and have Petry a UFA ; Marincin , Schultz & Yak to sign let alone probably Arco and or Lander .Lets say the cap goes up 10% so McT has 26 Mill or so to play with . Yak has the year we all hope for and his at 6 , Marincin will be 3.5; Schultz gets the 6 he wants and all of a sudden we have 10 -11 mill left . If as many think Petry wants 5 to 5.5 we would end up in the same place as this year with no Arco or Lander or even say they fall into that 10% we may have 5 mill left . Bonuses are part of contracts and can’t be overlooked either this year or next .As for him saving his coach it should be about saving his team . Coaches get paid to do a job just like players .Hell right now I want Yak & Leon to hit there bonus money because if they do we have a better chance to be in the playoffs .

    The salary cap next season will include the television money. Hold on to your hat!

  15. oliveoilers says:

    Mr DeBakey: Petry is a rightie, unlike those other three.
    Petry is good now, unlike those other three.
    The teams that win games have little or no potential.
    Its all realized.

    Uh, no.
    Marincin was clearly in over his head on a regular basis last season.
    [I saw it plain as day].

    Can you imagine how good Petry would’ve looked [and Gilbert before him] if he’d had an opportunity to play with a partner who was better than him?

    Uh, no. Petry is average now. A perfectly serviceable NHL d-man. Nothing wrong with that. But signing him is counter to the ‘not trading Yak” argument. We don’t want to trade Yak, because it’s frittering away the future. But we want to sign an average d-man on an over-long and overpayed contract that could royally screw us with one of the three chances we have at an ELITE d-man on a good contract.

    Gilbert has had the chance to play with Ryan Suter and Brian Campbell. Gilbert is also another perfectly serviceable NHL d-man. But this ‘he’ll be a stud, if only we believe hard enough’ is pure folly. They are what they are, and what they are is valuable pieces, but not the droids you’re looking for. Certainly not $5.5m a year times 5 or 6.

  16. oliveoilers says:

    Lowetide: This is exactly the problem with talking about Petry. Most Oiler fans just don’t know what they have in him. Jeff Petry is a quality top 4 NHL defenseman with miles of track ahead. Full stop.

    Would appear to be most Oiler fans and all 29 other GMs. Not exactly beating our door down for the bargain basement priced defensive juggernaut of Jeff Petry. Put it this way. Jeff is Spacek, not Chris ‘effin Pronger. A guy that absolutely will not hurt your team. Unless he asks for and gets more than he’s worth. Let’s see what he does with a couple of more competent d-men this year.

  17. oliveoilers says:

    I’m just grouchy because it’s snowing here, and we had a bbq organised. Meh, I say. Meh.

  18. flyfish1168 says:

    Since both Schultz and Petry are on 1 yr contracts I don’t mind the idea of watching and seeing which one comes out of the gate and performs better. I realize one is a UFA and one is a RFA so a delicate decision has to be made before trade dead line. I like Petry’s two way game better then Justin’s at this point in time. I believe Jeff can perform close to Justin’s offensive upside but maybe always be better in the defensive zone then Justin. My preference is always for a player that is more versatile and not a one trick pony and if they can come in cheaper.JMHO

  19. Lowetide says:

    oliveoilers: Would appear to be most Oiler fans and all 29 other GMs.Not exactly beating our door down for the bargain basement priced defensive juggernaut of Jeff Petry.Put it this way.Jeff is Spacek, not Chris ‘effin Pronger.A guy that absolutely will not hurt your team.Unless he asks for and gets more than he’s worth.Let’s see what he does with a couple of more competent d-men this year.

    Your hyperbole is showing! Chris Pronger? Come on, Olive. You’re off your nut here. The Oilers (basically) signed a two-year deal with Nikita Nikitin (an inferior player) and are counting pennies with a legit top 4D. Nowhere in the conversation is anyone but you discussing Chris Pronger.

    Jeff Petry should have been the FIRST player signed long term from this blue line, not the last one. If he’s sent away for a pick and a prospect, and that’s what it looks like from here, then the Edmonton Oilers don’t know what they’re doing.

    And I really like MacT as a person and believe he’s going to be a solid GM. This isn’t some fringe guy we’re talking about here, Jeff Petry is an actual NHL player.

    Get good players, keep good players.

    PS, I know we’re never going to agree on this, and will leave it here.

  20. Woodguy says:

    New post up at Because Oilers.

    What to expect when you’re expecting Nikita Nikitin

    http://becauseoilers.blogspot.ca/2014/09/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting.html

  21. Pouzar says:

    Mr DeBakey: Petry is a rightie, unlike those other three.
    Petry is good now, unlike those other three.
    The teams that win games have little or no potential.
    Its all realized.

    Uh, no.
    Marincin was clearly in over his head on a regular basis last season.
    [I saw it plain as day].

    Can you imagine how good Petry would’ve looked [and Gilbert before him] if he’d had an opportunity to play with a partner who was better than him?

    Gimme some examples of MM being “in over his head”.
    It’s a pretty sweet narrative but the fancy stats don’t agree with you nor do the eyes of many here.

  22. RexLibris says:

    oliveoilers:
    I’m just grouchy because it’s snowing here, and we had a bbq organised.Meh, I say.Meh.

    *Nervously checks the sky* Uh, where exactly is here? Please say you are in the 403 or West of the Rockies…

  23. oliveoilers says:

    RexLibris: *Nervously checks the sky* Uh, where exactly is here? Please say you are in the 403 or West of the Rockies…

    LOL, 30mins north of Peace River.

  24. flyfish1168 says:

    Lowetide: Your hyperbole is showing! Chris Pronger? Come on, Olive. You’re off your nut here. The Oilers (basically) signed a two-year deal with Nikita Nikitin (an inferior player) and are counting pennies with a legit top 4D. Nowhere in the conversation is anyone but you discussing Chris Pronger.

    Jeff Petry should have been the FIRST player signed long term from this blue line, not the last one. If he’s sent away for a pick and a prospect, and that’s what it looks like from here, then the Edmonton Oilers don’t know what they’re doing.

    And I really like MacT as a person and believe he’s going to be a solid GM. This isn’t some fringe guy we’re talking about here, Jeff Petry is an actual NHL player.

    Get good players, keep good players.

    PS, I know we’re never going to agree on this, and will leave it here.

    LT I total agree with you here. if there is a chance to sign Jeff long term I would. Quality player surrounded with mediocrity for to long. Jeff has endured a long losing streak and if we come out of the gates flat I myself would be sick of this and want to be traded. I do believe this trade deadline may answer many questions where we are headed with our defensive pairings

  25. oliveoilers says:

    flyfish1168: LT I total agree with you here. if there is a chance to sign Jeff long term I would. Quality player surrounded with mediocrity for to long. Jeff has endured a long losing streak and if we come out of the gates flat I myself would be sick of this and want to be traded. I do believe this trade deadline may answer many questions where we are headed with our defensive pairings

    I simply cannot believe that MacT is that deluded that if the possibility existed of signing Petry to a good, long term contract, then he would have, nor if the price was too steep not to have traded him. To me, it all comes down to value and the perception of value. We love our goats at the Oilers, but perhaps we also like our Smyttys?

  26. RexLibris says:

    Pouzar: Gimme some examples of MM being “in over his head”.
    It’s a pretty sweet narrative but the fancy stats don’t agree with you nor do the eyes of many here.

    How about in the 7′ end of the swimming pool wearing a weight belt? Good enough for ya!

    😉

  27. spoiler says:

    RexLibris: *Nervously checks the sky* Uh, where exactly is here? Please say you are in the 403 or West of the Rockies…

    Hey! Shaddup-a-ya-face! I’m driving in to the park to wander up Johnston canyon today. There will be no snow.

  28. RexLibris says:

    spoiler: Hey! Shaddup-a-ya-face!I’m driving in to the park to wander up Johnston canyon today. There will be no snow.

    Nothing unites a group of Northern Albertans like their shared PTSD reactions to crystallized precipitation.

  29. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: Hey! Shaddup-a-ya-face!I’m driving in to the park to wander up Johnston canyon today. There will be no snow.

    Love that hike. Awesome day.

  30. G Money says:

    Petry is a good defenseman.

    He and the team could not agree on a long-term contract.

    These things are not mutually exclusive.

    If he wanted $5.5M x 6 years? Crazy talk. Unless he has a banner year, I’d be surprised if there’s a team in the NHL that ponies up that kind of cash for Jeff Petry next year.

    Petry can ask for whatever the hell he wants. Doesn’t mean he’s going to get it from anyone. Petry is a better defenseman than Nikitin (or at least was the last two years), but it wouldn’t surprise me if Nikitin’s reputational market value around the league is higher.

    The Oilers and MacT may or may not be taking a bad gamble here. We won’t know until next year.

  31. flyfish1168 says:

    oliveoilers: I simply cannot believe that MacT is that deluded that if the possibility existed of signing Petry to a good, long term contract, then he would have, nor if the price was too steep not to have traded him.To me, it all comes down to value and the perception of value.We love our goats at the Oilers, but perhaps we also like our Smyttys?

    I do side with you to a degree. To me a good case in point was Hemsky. When you are losing as long as we are, most eastern reporters and fans don’t see us will for sure undermine your worth. After seeing Hemsky play even for that short period how may changed their minds on his value.

  32. Oilcan says:

    Hey LT,

    Do you think that Petry and the Oilers have an agreement that after Jan. 1 (or whenever he can sign a new contract) they will sign the new contract and they signed the one year for cheaper RFA year to keep the cap hit lower for this year to allow for improvements (like at 2C) and then sign the UFA number later in the year? The thing that might not have that is that why would Petry risk an injury and getting paid, and would the Oilers risk Petry holding the cards and then having a higher cap hit for the next 4-5 years. I have never seen this talked about before but think it could be a possibility.

  33. oliveoilers says:

    RexLibris: Nothing unites a group of Northern Albertans like their shared PTSD reactions to crystallized precipitation.

    Amen, Brother Rex.

  34. Maurey says:

    Lowetide: The salary cap next season will include the television money. Hold on to your hat!

    Yes, by my calculations the Rogers ($5.2billion) TV deal will give each team 8.23 million for salaries. I’m not sure what the previous deal was worth but I suspect it was in the 3.25 million range so I’m guessing it will be at least 77M , and possibly as high as 82M next year. I think the teams spending to cap right now will have some breathing room starting next year.

    I think you could sign all Oilers players to post-great-year contracts and end up right in that range: Yakupov @6.0, Schultz @5.0, Petry @4.5, Marincin @3.5, Arcobello @3.0, Fasth @2.5, Lander @1.0, Pitlick @0.75. That mean’s a lot of things going right this year! That’s 76.75M. Now all Edmonton would need to do is to dump a couple salaries such as Hendricks final 2 years @1.85M, Nikitin’s final year @4.5M, and Purcell’s final year @4.5M, which would give them 11.1M in cap space.

    First, I think those are fairly easy players to replace with value contracts and the organization may have to make room anyway for upcoming future core players pushing for ice time such as Nurse & Klefbom in Nikitin’s place and Lander or Tkachev in Hendrick’s place and maybe Pakarinen or Chase in Purcell’s place. Secondly, Yakimov may show enough promise to allow the Oilers to move Arcobello or even Gordon (yikes) thereby saving another 2.15M. That’s 13.25M for 4 replacement players that could mostly be filled with inhouse or free agent bargain contracts like those given to Blake Comeau, Devin Setoguchi, TJ Galiardi and Peter Mueller this summer. I think Nikitin, Purcell and Hendricks could easily be moved if the cap goes up by 8-12M and I wouldn’t worry too much about the return, 2nd round or later picks or decent prospects would be fine.

  35. justDOit says:

    oliveoilers: LOL, 30mins north of Peace River.

    Beautiful country, especially when the leaves start to turn and the bugs settle down a little.

  36. Lowetide says:

    Oilcan:
    Hey LT,

    Do you think that Petry and the Oilers have an agreement that after Jan. 1 (or whenever he can sign a new contract) they will sign the new contract and they signed the one year for cheaper RFA year to keep the cap hit lower for this year to allow for improvements (like at 2C) and then sign the UFA number later in the year? The thing that might not have that is that why would Petry risk an injury and getting paid, and would the Oilers risk Petry holding the cards and then having a higher cap hit for the next 4-5 years. I have never seen this talked about before but think it could be a possibility.

    I think they’ll trade him between now and the deadline. I believe he’s gone.

  37. thepeetso says:

    justDOit: Beautiful country, especially when the leaves start to turn and the bugs settle down a little.

    Yeah its been gorgeous up here the last couple days.

    But not today, today is gross. Cold and gross.

  38. D says:

    LT,

    In the business world, I try to aim for 90% in most things, because going from 90% to 99% is an exponential increase in cost. If Petry is the 10% error, it could be forgivable if it means freeing up decision making time for other issues.

    Miss the Edmonton falls and springs. Don’t miss the winters though.

  39. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Oilcan:
    Hey LT,

    Do you think that Petry and the Oilers have an agreement that after Jan. 1 (or whenever he can sign a new contract) they will sign the new contract and they signed the one year for cheaper RFA year to keep the cap hit lower for this year to allow for improvements (like at 2C) and then sign the UFA number later in the year? The thing that might not have that is that why would Petry risk an injury and getting paid, and would the Oilers risk Petry holding the cards and then having a higher cap hit for the next 4-5 years. I have never seen this talked about before but think it could be a possibility.

    It’s come up before. Let’s say his asking price was/is $3 MM for RFA year & $5 MM for UFA years. Let’s say the second option was 4 years, $18 MM, AAV $4.5 MM. Would you rather have his cap hit $1.5 MM lower this year, or $0.5 MM lower in each of the next three when the team is getting older/better paid? I personally would choose Door No. 2.

    That said I’m not sure he’s a $5 MM defenceman at this point, but if he has a Niskanen-type year that will change the equation. I’m pretty sure MacT likes him just fine, I don’t see that as a productive line of debate.

  40. Lowetide says:

    The trouble for Edmonton in 2015 summer is they’ve created a scenario where they have to sign so many players and it’s unlikely it will all come together. I love MacT’s roster maneuverability (sp?) but it may well come at a cost.

  41. bigbadbruin24 says:

    Lowetide: I think they’ll trade him between now and the deadline. I believe he’s gone.

    How about dreaming a little then.

    Assuming they want to trade him and assuming the “Yak is in play” rumours are also true and assuming Jumbo Joe agreed to come to Edmonton…do you knock on San Jose’s door with an offer with Petry and Yak for Thornton?

    Can you imagine Thornton, RNH, Leon and Gordon up the middle for the next few years.

  42. oliveoilers says:

    thepeetso: Yeah its been gorgeous up here the last couple days.

    But not today, today is gross. Cold and gross.

    We live next door to some Peetsos. Could be relatives?

    justDOit: Beautiful country, especially when the leaves start to turn and the bugs settle down a little.

    Thank you, sir! Only good thing about this weather is the lack of bugs. Well, maybe the smell of snow is also associated with hockey just around the corner. I could almost like it for that!

  43. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: You still sign Petry and then deal him for value when the kids are ready.

    Exactly. Petry is 26, not 32. You can sign him to a fair contract and he will be tradeable because he will still be in his twenties, plus he is a rare commodity, a multitool right shot D.

    I disagree with the point that Eakins liked Petry. He was the defensemen Eakins blamed for the bad start. The one he singled out to sit and be reset. The coach is a fool.

  44. OilClog says:

    bigbadbruin24: How about dreaming a little then.

    Assuming they want to trade him and assuming the “Yak is in play” rumours are also true and assuming Jumbo Joe agreed to come to Edmonton…do you knock on San Jose’s door with an offer with Petry and Yak for Thornton?

    Can you imagine Thornton, RNH, Leon and Gordon up the middle for the next few years.

    Too much for 2-3yrs of the tail end of Thornton

    He’d never play in Edmonton, even if the trade happened.

    Let’s chase a Staal.

  45. VanOil says:

    I think missing from today’s conversation is MacT’s comments this summer about $7 Million defensemen. I believe in his estimation that a team should have one of them, some mid range players and then some bit players.

    MacT seems to have his long term mid range players in Fayne and Ferrence. Few of us believe Schultz or Petry is or will be a $7M guy. MacT might see it differently.

    Not signing the guy who has been your best defender the last 3 years and will likely be your best defender for the next 3 years to a long term deal seems to be MacTs biggest mistake of the summer. The the gaping whole at 2C is only a short term thing as the German Cowboy should fill nicely in the years to come.

  46. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: The salary cap next season will include the television money. Hold on to your hat!

    So you think the cap will go up more than $ 7 million ??? Does the T.V. money cover an 87-90 cent hit on our dollar . Last i looked Canada’s 7 teams (well 6 not including Ottawa ) still send money south . If our dollar drops to 85 cents they will be lucky to see a 10% increase .

  47. godot10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: It’s come up before. Let’s say his asking price was/is $3 MM for RFA year & $5 MM for UFA years. Let’s say the second option was 4 years, $18 MM, AAV $4.5 MM. Would you rather have his cap hit $1.5 MM lower this year, or $0.5 MM lower in each of the next three when the team is getting older/better paid? I personally would choose Door No. 2.

    That said I’m not sure he’s a $5 MM defenceman at this point, but if he has a Niskanen-type year that will change the equation. I’m pretty sure MacT likes him just fine, I don’t see that as a productive line of debate.

    The contracts signed this summer or last for 2nd pairing 20-something defensemen at market are about $3.5 million for a RFA year and $6 million for a UFA year.

    Elite 1st pairing D are going to be $8 million and up going forward.

    3rd pairing D, go for $3.5 million (MacT overpaid by $1 million per year for Nikitin).

    2nd pairing D, mid-career are going to come in at $6 million going forward.

    Get used to it. Jeff Petry is a $6 million dollar per year D. If he gets more than 4 years, it might come down to $5.5-$5.75

    The Oilers could have got the AAV on a contract into the low fives with one RFA year, and that would have been a fair market value contract.

  48. Hammers says:

    VanOil: I think missing from today’s conversation is MacT’s comments this summer about $7 Million defensemen. I believe in his estimation that a team should have one of them, some mid range players and then some bit players.MacT seems to have his long term mid range players in Fayne and Ferrence. Few of us believe Schultz or Petry is or will be a $7M guy. MacT might see it differently.Not signing the guy who has been your best defender the last 3 years and will likely be your best defender for the next 3 years to a long term deal seems to be MacTs biggest mistake of the summer. The the gaping whole at 2C is only a short term thing as the German Cowboy should fill nicely in the years to come.

    Unfortunately that’s what a Norris trophy ( wannabe ) is worth maybe even 8 mill . Management seems to think Schultz has that potential ( better prove it ) . I sure hope there feelings on Schultz are correct and not mine .

  49. thepeetso says:

    oliveoilers: We live next door to some Peetsos.Could be relatives?

    Most certainly are. If you’re out Dixonville way.

  50. frjohnk says:

    I’m sure the oilers and Petry’s camp had discussions during this past season or at the end, about his next contract. Petry’s camp probably held the position that he is worth 5.5M X 5 years or somewhere in that area. If that was too rich, then they would head to free agency after this next year. I’m sure the oilers knew in June that they were probably not going to sign Petry beyond 2014-15 because A, his demands were too rich, or B, he wants to go somewhere else.

    So the alternate plan was probably to get actual NHL dmen not only for this coming year as stopgaps until the young blue are actually ready, but also as a possible replacement for Petry, who could be gone before the 2014-15 trade deadline. Fayne might not be as good as Petry, but at 3.6 M per year is better value than Petry at 5.5M over 5 years. Once Fayne signed that contract, Petry’s days as an oiler were numbered.

    Next years D corps unless there is trade

    Marincin- Fayne
    Nikitin- Schultz
    Ference- Klefbom

  51. oliveoilers says:

    thepeetso: Most certainly are.If you’re out Dixonville way.

    I’m in Wally Gardiner’s old place on Smith-Mills Road. Small internet.

  52. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: 2nd pairing D, mid-career are going to come in at $6 million going forward.

    What would you call Mark Fayne? 3rd pairing? 4th pairing?

  53. bendelson says:

    thepeetso,

    oliveoilers,

    Sounds like I picked a bad week in the ‘summer’ to head to North Star…

  54. oliveoilers says:

    bendelson:
    thepeetso,

    oliveoilers,

    Sounds like I picked a bad week in the ‘summer’ to head to North Star…

    lol, yup!

  55. godot10 says:

    Bruce McCurdy: What would you call Mark Fayne? 3rd pairing? 4th pairing?

    Fayne is a defensive shutdown D specialist. He is not Petry, Kulikov, Gardiner, or Bogosian who are getting $6 million or close to it for UFA year, who are multitool D.

    And with Fayne a lot of people are counting chickens. Lou re-signed a 30-something Andy Greene and let Fayne walk, just like he let Clarkson walk. As Dellow has pointed out, New Jersey is playing a different game than everyone else. Until you can explain New Jersey possesion outlierdom, it is not clear that their possession “monster” stats are transferable on a player basis to other teams.

    And note that New Jersey has underachieved results wise relative to their supposed Corsi out performance for a long period of time.

    Petry has been taking on the toughest minutes in the Western Conference for 3 years now with subpar help.

    Fayne has had Andy Greene.

  56. SpotTheLoon says:

    I agree with your comments LT about the Oilers mishandling Petry contract situation. Unless it is a matter of him wanting out of the organization, I can’t see agreeing to a one year contract that will take him to free agency. That contract only serves to diminish the value of that asset. It gives Petry leverage in terms of contract negotiations in the event the team wants to extend him. Or it means he either walks for free or the Oilers receive a draft pick for his services later in the season.

    I don’t understand all the criticism of Petry from fans. I understand that, for whatever reason, there seems to be a whipping boy on each addition of the team where fans take issue with seemingly every single play that the individual is involved in. Certainly, Petry made some mistakes last year. But who didn’t? This was a 28th place team. Maybe it comes down to fans being unhappy with what a player isn’t instead of appreciating what they do bring.

    To be honest, I do feel that we can accurately assess any of the returning d men from last year. As you have repeatedly indicated, players were playing further up the depth chart than they were capable of. Given that the team didn’t actually have a legitimate 1st pairing on d, how can we accurately assess the capabilities of most of the defense given most were playing over their collective heads. Not to mention the coaching transition and the introduction of the swarm.

    I think it is poor asset management for MacT to knowing diminish the value of a sound defensive asset unless the player wants out or is swinging for the fences in terms of a contract offer. It’s a shame in that with an improved defense this year, I think the opportunity is there for Petry and others to finally show what they are truly capable of while playing to their ability. The same can be said of all the d men given that there is greater choice now in terms of managing players and putting them in positions to be successful.

  57. Bruce McCurdy says:

    godot10: Fayne is a defensive shutdown D specialist.He is not Petry, Kulikov, Gardiner, or Bogosian who are getting $6 million or close to it for UFA year, who are multitool D.

    And with Fayne a lot of people are counting chickens.Lou re-signed a 30-something Andy Greene and let Fayne walk, just like he let Clarkson walk.As Dellow has pointed out, New Jersey is playing a different game than everyone else.Until you can explain New Jersey possesion outlierdom, it is not clear that their possession “monster” stats are transferable on a player basis to other teams.

    And note that New Jersey has underachieved results wise relative to their supposed Corsi out performance for a long period of time.

    Petry has been taking on the toughest minutes in the Western Conference for 3 years now with subpar help.

    Fayne has had Andy Greene.

    What would you call Anton Stralman? Christian Ehrhoff? Truth is that not a single UFA d-man who was signed or re-signed this summer got $6 MM, and they were all UFA years by definition. Yes, I realize you said “going forward”,

    Anyway it is indeed possible that Jeff Petry is worth $2.5 MM a year more than Mark Fayne. It is also possible that I’m a monkey’s uncle.

    Petry 236 GP, 13-46-59, 0.25 P/G
    Fayne 242 GP, 13-35-48, 0.20 P/G

    … but one is a defensive shutdown specialist and the other is a multitool D. Yeah, that’s sure cut and dried.

  58. teddyturnbuckle says:

    Lowetide,

    Yes, kind of reminds me of when Ryan Smyth was the last one to sign when he should have been the first. Then he was traded. MacT has done some good things but I don’t like how he talked up Gagner last summer like he is talking about Justin Schultz now, gave him a big contract and then traded him for a 5th round pick value player in Purcell.

  59. Mr DeBakey says:

    To put some of these numbers in perspective, back in the day
    Pronger signed with the OIlers at $6.25mm per against a $39mm Cap

    That translates to about $11mm per at the current Cap limit.

    That’s your upper, best of the best, limit.

  60. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy: What would you call Anton Stralman? Christian Ehrhoff? Truth is that not a single UFA d-man who was signed or re-signed this summer got $6 MM, and they were all UFA years by definition. Yes, I realize you said “going forward”,

    Anyway it is indeed possible that Jeff Petry is worth $2.5 MM a year more than Mark Fayne. It is also possible that I’m a monkey’s uncle.

    Petry 236 GP, 13-46-59, 0.25 P/G
    Fayne 242 GP, 13-35-48, 0.20 P/G

    … but one is a defensive shutdown specialist and the other is a multitool D. Yeah, that’s sure cut and dried.

    Godot is always out to lunch on what everyone is getting paid.

    I looked at the best of the UFA left handed Dmen in my post today about Nikitin.

    Here is what they signed for this year:

    Ehrhoff $4MM x 1 year
    Orpik $5.5MM x 5 years (egad!)
    Robidas $3MM x 3 years
    Boyle $4.5MM x 2 years
    Stralman $4.5MM x 5 years
    Meszaros $4.125MM x 1year
    Niskanen $5.75MM x 7 years
    Mitchell $4.25 x 2 years

    Look at all the $6MM/yr contracts.

  61. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: Godot is always out to lunch on what everyone is getting paid.

    I looked at the best of the UFA left handed Dmen in my post today about Nikitin.

    Here is what they signed for this year:

    Ehrhoff $4MM x 1 year
    Orpik $5.5MM x 5 years (egad!)
    Robidas $3MM x 3 years
    Boyle $4.5MM x 2 years
    Stralman $4.5MM x 5 years
    Meszaros $4.125MM x 1year
    Niskanen $5.75MM x 7 years
    Mitchell $4.25 x 2 years

    Look at all the $6MM/yr contracts.

    You forgot to mention Engelland.

  62. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: Godot is always out to lunch on what everyone is getting paid.

    I looked at the best of the UFA left handed Dmen in my post today about Nikitin.

    Here is what they signed for this year:

    Ehrhoff $4MM x 1 year
    Orpik $5.5MM x 5 years (egad!)
    Robidas $3MM x 3 years
    Boyle $4.5MM x 2 years
    Stralman $4.5MM x 5 years
    Meszaros $4.125MM x 1year
    Niskanen $5.75MM x 7 years
    Mitchell $4.25 x 2 years

    Look at all the $6MM/yr contracts.

    The comparable to Petry is Niskanen and Orpik and Stralman. Ehrhoff was choosing extreme short term and location. Most of the other are suspects or older than old.

    And the other comparables:

    Kulikov 3 years @ $4.33 AAV (2 RFA, 1UFA)
    Gardiner (and Fowler) 5 years @ $4.00 AVV (4 RFA, 1UFA)

    If one assigns $3.5 million for the RFA years, the UFA year comes out at $6 miillion)

    Nikitin 2 years @ $4.5 million (2UFA)

  63. spud says:

    Lowetide: I think they’ll trade himbetween now and the deadline. I believe he’s gone.

    I think you are spot on. Petry and others will be traded this season to radically change the roster.

  64. Woodguy says:

    Here are other notable D who signed this summer (UFAs)

    Zidlicky $4MM x 1 year
    Timonen $2MM x 1 year
    Markov $5.75 x 3 years
    Matt Greene $2.5MM x 4 years
    Hainsey $2.833 x 3 years
    Fayne $3.5MM x 4
    Stoner $3.25 x 4 years
    Gilbert $2.8MM x 2 years
    Weaver $1.75MM x 1 year
    Engelland $2.9MM x 3 years (NOTE: I’m convinced that Engelland camp asked for $2.9MM over 3 years and Treliving heard it wrong. Man, what a contract!)
    Quincey $4.25 x 2 years
    Nultz $1.25MM x 1 year
    Gleason $1.2MM x 1 year
    Volchenkov $1MM x 1 year
    Hannan $1MM x 1 year
    Del Zotta $1.3MM x 1 year

  65. Woodguy says:

    spud: I think you are spot on. Petry and others will be traded this season to radically change the roster.

    Petry with a few months until UFA is not worth nearly as much as a Petry signed for 3 years.

    LT is right.

    Even if you don’t Petry long term you have to sign him for 3+ years just so he has more value as a trade-able asset.

    Losing him for next to nothing is not good asset management at all.

    And this doesn’t even begin to address the fact that he’s currently their best RHD.

  66. wheatnoil says:

    godot10: The comparable to Petry is Niskanen and Orpik and Stralman.Ehrhoff was choosing extreme short term and location. Most of the other are suspects or older than old.

    So… Fayne is NOT a comparable because he’s a shutdown defenseman, not a multi-tool defenseman like Petry and… Orpik? If you’re going to include Orpik as a comparable because it fits your narrative, I think you also need to include Fayne.

    Niskanen isn’t a great comparable. I mean, he got 46 points last year to Petry’s 17.

    Stralman might be your best comparable here and he got $4.5 with some term.

    godot10:
    If one assigns $3.5 million for the RFA years, the UFA year comes out at $6 miillion)

    Why are we assuming $3.5M for the RFA years? That seems arbitrary.

    Look, I agree Petry is going to get paid and I wish MacT had signed him long-term and still hope he will (even though it seems unlikely), but there’s not much evidence from this summer about your payscale. The NHL may go that way, but I don’t see the evidence.

  67. commonfan14 says:

    Woodguy,

    If a full NTC was part of what it would have cost to get a 3-year deal done, how much does that change the equation?

  68. Woodguy says:

    commonfan14:
    Woodguy,

    If a full NTC was part of what it would have cost to get a 3-year deal done, how much does that change the equation?

    You don’t do it.

  69. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    Hey WG,

    I lost the link to your blog. Can you refresh my memory?

  70. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    Woodguy,

    Hey WG,

    I lost the link to your blog. Can you refresh my memory?

    It’s on the blogroll, Because Oilers.

  71. RexLibris says:

    I love the fall. The melancholy, nostalgia, colours of the leaves, crisp bite in the air contrasting with a warm sunshine…

    …and hockey debates on the internet.

    Here’s another interesting parallel for you.

    Last year, Taylor Hall was 21 and had 171 games of NHL experience. He went to the Men’s World Cup, played 8 games, and produced 3 points.

    This year, Gaudreau was 21 and had 1 game of NHL experience. He went to the Men’s World Cup, played 8 games, and produced 10 points.

  72. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: It’s on the blogroll, Because Oilers.

    Rrrright.

    So, learn to read first, then post comment. Gotcha!

    *facepalm*

  73. whale says:

    What kind of contract does anyone think Boychuk will get for his next contract. Will the Oilers be involved?

  74. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: Rrrright.

    So, learn to read first, then post comment. Gotcha!

    *facepalm*

    That’s ok.

    I forgot that I had to get out of a thread to see the blogroll.

    Felt really smart after that one.

  75. Ryan says:

    whale:
    What kind of contract does anyone think Boychuk will get for his next contract. Will the Oilers be involved?

    What? Haven’t you heard? The Oilers are going to trade a number 1 ov pick (Yakupov) for 1 year of Boychuk. 🙂

  76. oliveoilers says:

    Woodguy: That’s ok.

    I forgot that I had to get out of a thread to see the blogroll.

    Felt really smart after that one.

    Just did the same. Nice blog, by the way. Maybe Nikitin is made for Petry? Also, because I like balance of opinion, I visited DSF’s blog. Interesting, and he (I’m presuming) does make some valid arguments. Jolly good of LT to give you guys a tire pump!

  77. Lowetide says:

    oliveoilers: Just did the same.Nice blog, by the way.Maybe Nikitin is made for Petry?Also, because I like balance of opinion, I visited DSF’s blog.Interesting, and he (I’m presuming) does make some valid arguments.Jolly good of LT to give you guys a tire pump!

    One of my favorite things about hosting this blog over the years is the group who’ve popped in for a minute or an hour (or longer). Anything I can do to help promote people, I’m willing to do. 🙂

  78. Ribs says:

    Woodguy: That’s ok.
    I forgot that I had to get out of a thread to see the blogroll.
    Felt really smart after that one.

    Glad to see that problem was solved, lol.

  79. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris: Rrrright.

    So, learn to read first, then post comment. Gotcha!

    *facepalm*

    Learned a similar lesson myself just yesterday. You know what they say… never stop learning!

  80. russ99 says:

    I’m not disappointed with Petry going one year, IMO he’s maximized his potential, we can’t keep everybody under the cap and if we can get a better player, he’s expendable.

    At some point we’re going to have to trade surplus offense for that top-pairing defenseman that we still need even if Nurse and/or Klefbom pan out as expected.

    IMO it’s either Eberle or Yak being moved, and I’m really hoping Yak blow the doors off this year and stays. Could Eberle and Petry bring in a quality top pairing guy at the deadline this year?

  81. PerryK says:

    Lowetide: Your hyperbole is showing! Chris Pronger? Come on, Olive. You’re off your nut here. The Oilers (basically) signed a two-year deal with Nikita Nikitin (an inferior player) and are counting pennies with a legit top 4D. Nowhere in the conversation is anyone but you discussing Chris Pronger.

    Jeff Petry should have been the FIRST player signed long term from this blue line, not the last one. If he’s sent away for a pick and a prospect, and that’s what it looks like from here, then the Edmonton Oilers don’t know what they’re doing.

    And I really like MacT as a person and believe he’s going to be a solid GM. This isn’t some fringe guy we’re talking about here, Jeff Petry is an actual NHL player.

    Get good players, keep good players.

    PS, I know we’re never going to agree on this, and will leave it here.

    Not quite fair, LT! He simply means that Petry can be compared to Spacek. As in a very competent 2nd pairing, 2 way D that can be moved up to play with a very competent #1D (as in CFP or similar top 10).

    I like Petry and I would love to have him signed, and I was almost as unhappy to lose Spacek as I was with CFP. Well that may be a bit hyperbolic! But the point remains that long term decisions absolutely need to take in to account Salaries, and cap hit percentages.

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