THE HIGH NUMBERS

Fans of the Oklahoma City Barons are having fun this TC, as some of the Barons’ forwards from last season are looking to make the grade. The minor leagues, wearing high numbers, see a window of opportunity and are making the most of it. Let’s have a look at how things are going.

BARONS’ FORWARDS WITH A CHANCE

  1. C Anton Lander—Swedish center is scoreless in one pre-season game, but his one-way deal suggests Edmonton sees him as a part of the team. Lander will have to fight back some impressive youngsters (Yakimov, Khaira) but is looking good right now. Chances of making Oilers: 80%.
  2. R Tyler Pitlick—He’s always looked like a hockey player, and so far this TC he’s delivered the goods. Offense is never going to be a strength, so he’s going to be limited in where he bats in the order. Opportunity is knocking and Pitlick appears to be answering. Chances of making Oilers: 50%.
  3. R Steve Pinizzotto—Big winger came over last season in return for Ryan Martindale, and saw action a year ago. Chances of making Oilers: 20%.
  4. C Will Acton—Among the group who offer penalty killing ability and toughness, Acton is also a center and well known to coach Dallas Eakins. Sometimes that’s enough, Acton certainly is in the mix for employment. Chances of making Oilers: 15%.
  5. R Andrew Miller—Easy to forget about him, but these college men have been trumping the draft picks lately, no reason to expect Miller will be a shy butterfly. His improvement year over year is obvious. Chances of making the Oilers: 10%.
  6. L Curtis Hamilton—Impressed the other night when he jumped up to the top line, and the best news of the year is that his career has any good arrows at all. If he makes it, Hamilton could write a book about overcoming obstacles. Chances of making the Oilers: 10%.
  7. L Kale Kessy—His improvement is one of the major stories in this year’s camp, and Kessy’s emergence offers the Oilers some options they may not have expected to be available. Chances of making the Oilers: 5%.
  8. C Jujhar Khaira—Big man is impressive and his time will come. Offense the concern, suspect he answers those questions yes or no in OKC. Chances of making the Oilers: 2%.

I’m counting Arcobello as an NHL player, Joensuu didn’t play in the AHL and I don’t think guys like Ryan Hamilton have any chance at all. You may recall Hamilton playing NHL games early one year ago. I’ll have a look at the blue later today.

platzer

DRAFT PICKS STATS UPDATE

  1. R Anton Slepyshev(KHL) 10GP, 1-3-4
  2. C Kyle Platzer (OHL) 2GP, 0-3-3
  3. C Bogdan Yakimov (NHL PS) 2GP, 1-1-2
  4. C Leon Draisaitl (NHL PS) 2GP, 0-1-1
  5. D Darnell Nurse (NHL PS) 2GP, 0-1-1
  6. C Liam Coughlin (BCJHL) 3GP, 1-0-1
  7. C Marco Roy (QMJHL) 1GP, 0-0-0
  8. R Jackson Houck (WHL) 1GP, 0-0-0
  9. C Greg Chase (WHL) 1GP, 0-0-0
  10. D Ben Betker (WHL) 0GP, 0-0-0
  11. G Keven Bouchard (QMJHL) 1GP, 12.84 .688

Slepyshev is off to a nice start, and Platzer is showing well. We didn’t talk a lot about him during the Young Stars, but Platzer looked very good from here. His skills are more two-way than offensive, but the Oilers are going to need 6’s and 7’s in the future. Well placed to get a contract and turn pro next fall. Yakimov is a revelation, and the junior pair have been impressive, although Tkachev is getting a lot of the attention.

The party is just getting started, I’ll try to update every Saturday morning as the season rolls.

PROJECTED OILERS OPENING NIGHT ROSTER (23 plus Gazdic)

LEFT WING (4) CENTER (5) RIGHT WING (5)
TAYLOR HALL RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS JORDAN EBERLE
BENOIT POULIOT LEON DRAISAITL-rookie DAVID PERRON
NAIL YAKUPOV
MARK ARCOBELLO TEDDY PURCELL
MATT HENDRICKS BOYD GORDON  TYLER PITLICK
LUKE GAZDIC (IR)
ANTON LANDER  KEVIN WESTGARTH
     
LEFT DEFENSE (4)   RIGHT DEFENSE (3)
MARTIN MARINCIN   JEFF PETRY
NIKITA NIKITIN   MARK FAYNE
ANDREW FERENCE   JUSTIN SCHULTZ
DARNELL NURSE-rookie    
GOAL (2)  
  BEN SCRIVENS  
  VIKTOR FASTH  

I don’t think Aulie makes the roster based on what we know currently, and Klefbom won’t make it as 7D because the Oilers will want him to play every night (I’d keep  Klefbom, for the record). I think the Oilers keep Nurse, giving him a couple of starts a week to see if he can grab a job before sending him down later in October/early November for his WJ experience.

I have Westgarth as 14F, but Kessy, Hamilton and others may push hard enough for that roster spot to make it interesting late. Don’t count out Will Acton, and Bogdan Yakimov has a story to tell as well.

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65 Responses to "THE HIGH NUMBERS"

  1. speeds says:

    Instead of a 14th F, you think they will look at keeping Nurse as an 8th D?

    Assuming no injuries, that is, which might allow them to retain Nurse as a 7th d and go with 14 f’s.

  2. supernova says:

    Small typo- Platzer is OHL.

    What the heck on Bouchard? That’s a rough game, he might not even be the starter there this year.

    Scouts pick of Coughlin is not off to a good start, very disturbing.

  3. supernova says:

    On Vladdy Hockey to me the questions are ?

    1) what does he want for a contract (seems like he must be asking for a lot )

    2) if he gets the contract which draft pick doesn’t get one, he is going to take one of theirs

  4. Frank The Dog says:

    Hi LT, Can you tell me at what point you would show Little Yak as a RW on the depth chart?
    After all Eakins has said he’s going t play him there now, or do you need to wait before that is reflected on your source info?

  5. Henry says:

    supernova,

    If I remember the story right, Tkachev’s agent asked Stu for a tryout as a favour. It would be odd to play hardball on the contract afterward. Arcobello and Lander took NHL minimum.

    Several picks won’t pan out. They can pick the bright flowers.

  6. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    Instead of a 14th F, you think they will look at keeping Nurse as an 8th D?

    Assuming no injuries, that is, which might allow them to retain Nurse as a 7th d and go with 14 f’s.

    It’s certainly possible. A lot depends on Nurse of course, but if the Oilers are looking for toughness and Aulie can’t play at NHL level (and he’s been poor so far), Nurse would be a candidate. I’ve suggested all along they’d keep him for 9 games, and Aulie’s slip may be enough.

  7. Lowetide says:

    supernova:
    On Vladdy Hockey to me the questions are ?

    1) what does he want for a contract (seems like he must be asking for a lot )

    2) if he gets the contract which draft pick doesn’t get one, he is going to take one of theirs

    I just don’t see all the fuss over bonus numbers and AHL numbers for this guy. Tkachev is worth second round money on a bet, so give it to him. Silly silly Oilers.

  8. Mr DeBakey says:

    supernova: ) if he gets the contract which draft pick doesn’t get one, he is going to take one of theirs

    Liam Coughlin of course

  9. Lowetide says:

    Frank The Dog:
    Hi LT, Can you tell me at what point you would show Little Yak as a RW on the depth chart?
    After all Eakins has said he’s going t play him there now, or do you need to wait before that is reflected on your source info?

    Eakins will need to juggle the lines, and I’m honestly not sure how he’ll do it. As soon as we see it in action, I’ll flip Yakupov.

  10. Lowetide says:

    supernova:
    On Vladdy Hockey to me the questions are ?

    1) what does he want for a contract (seems like he must be asking for a lot )

    2) if he gets the contract which draft pick doesn’t get one, he is going to take one of theirs

    I wrote about who is behind Tkachev in terms of signing here:

    https://lowetide.ca/2014/09/oilers-at-jets-ps-g3-2014-15.html

  11. cdean says:

    There is always the possibility that it is Tkachev that is playing coy here. He might not be signing just so he can stay in training camp longer. He wants to get noticed.

    As far as the 23 man roster I only hope that as previously mentioned by another blogger taht I do not remember the name is that Westgarth is only here as a training camp muscle. If they sign him and have Gazdic that is too much waste in roster spots.

  12. Lowetide says:

    It’s also completely possible Tkachev is signed and the Oilers haven’t announced it. Maybe he plays tomorrow night and they announce it Monday. At 10.

  13. cahill says:

    speeds:
    Instead of a 14th F, you think they will look at keeping Nurse as an 8th D?

    Assuming no injuries, that is, which might allow them to retain Nurse as a 7th d and go with 14 f’s.

    I have wondered if they keep 8 D as well.

    How would the Oilers feel about dressing 11 F’s and 7 D. TB did it last year when Stamkos got hurt.
    If Perron shifts back to LW and Yakupov moves to RW. You could rotate the LW’s (Hall-Perron-Pouliot) through the rest of the lines. It’s roughly 16 minutes of ES minutes per LW & none of them have spent much time on the PK.

  14. Henry says:

    From the list of prospects above I hope 7 of 8 play tomorrow. They probably don’t need to play the Nuge, he is looking in mighty fine form already. It would be nice to see Hamilton turn it on two games in a row. I’d like to see Eberle with Leon and Hall with Arcobello.

    I’d also like to see Lander or Khaira with a couple rough guys that can play like Poo2 and Perron. If offense is questionable with those centres, it doesn’t make sense to experiment with them using AHLrs and plugs. The Oilers have to make them prove that they do or don’t have NHL offense by giving them opportunity.

  15. Marc says:

    I have a hard time believing that the Oilers would be giving serious pre-season game time to a player if there was any question about his signability. If his agents were playing hardball, it was always open to the Oilers to simply cut him without giving him the chance to show what he could do against NHL opposition, thereby hurting his draft stock next year.

    The fact he’s still with the Oilers and getting ice time when players who are under contract with the team are not strongly suggests that he will get signed. The timing of signing (or indeed of the announcement of that signing) is really irrelevant.

  16. rickithebear says:

    Henry:
    supernova,

    If I remember the story right, Tkachev’s agent asked Stu for a tryout as a favour.It would be odd to play hardball on the contract afterward.Arcobello and Lander took NHL minimum.

    Several picks won’t pan out.They can pick the bright flowers.

    Russian boy makes big impact in NHL camp.
    Line up KHL!

    this is one of the few times that trite xenophobic back to russia really lines up.

    the kid lites up NHL camp.

    Playing style more suited to bigger ice surface.

    Slidding ELC AHL defined season 1 YR Junior (19) and 2YR AHL physical development. (20 & 21)

    Give the largest signing bonus. (happy junior year) and best ELC Ahl dollars.

    may not compete with 3 years of income paying in a higher NHLE while he physically develops.

  17. PaperDesigner says:

    Lowetide:
    It’s also completely possible Tkachev is signed and the Oilers haven’t announced it. Maybe he plays tomorrow night and they announce it Monday. At 10.

    I had no idea Dave Jamieson’s show was moving to 10 this week.

  18. RexLibris says:

    PaperDesigner: I had no idea Dave Jamieson’s show was moving to 10 this week.

    Nice.

    I was going to say “10…eastern time”.

  19. gd says:

    If I was MacT, my two most important goals for the next seasons are:

    1) Put Leon and Yak in situations that best prepare them to eventually become the magical duo that I think they will become
    2) Make sure at least two of Nurse, Klefbom and Marancin become legit top 4 Dmen ASAP, by focusing on whatever is best for their development.

    I believe once these items have been achieved the Oilers will be legit contenders and I have no idea how best to get to this as all five have degrees of difficulty and risks/rewards with making the wrong developmental calls.

    The problem for Eakins is he has to have a good enough year to keep his job until then. MacT has to be on top of making sure he is not sacrificing development of the five over wins. The reality is Eakins is easier to replace then Yak or waiting another three years for Hanifan because we messed up Nurse or Klefbom. I have no idea whether Eakins is the right coach. I do like him, so I really hope he is, but I am also really hoping Detroit has a bad year, because a free agent Babcock would be handy.

    ps: MacT better be looking closing at the scouting departments, because the Aulie/Coughlin/Bouchard picks/signings are looking like concerning repeats of past mistakes.

  20. Hammers says:

    Think its time Yakimov plays on the wing with either Arco or Lander . It would be nice to know he can be called up to play any forward position as he may very well be the first call up . As for final pairs or lines there is still time for Eakins to tinkle with this group . Nurse has to get his 9 games and I agree with LT that maybe over the first 10-15 games . There is still the option of putting another player on the IR with Gazdic , but as of now Aulie doesn’t even deserve that .I still want to know what they will do if Klefbom keeps showing he is 1 of the top 4 “D” as for me he is . TRADE coming .

  21. Hammers says:

    gd:
    If I was MacT, my two most important goals for the next seasons are:

    1) Put Leon and Yak in situations that best prepare them to eventually become the magical duo that I think they will become
    2) Make sure at least two of Nurse, Klefbom and Marancin become legit top 4 Dmen ASAP, by focusing on whatever is best for their development.

    I believe once these items have been achieved the Oilers will be legit contenders and I have no idea how best to get to this as all five have degrees of difficulty and risks/rewards with making the wrong developmental calls.

    The problem for Eakins is he has to have a good enough year to keep his job until then. MacT has to be on top of making sure he is not sacrificing development of the five over wins. The reality is Eakins is easier to replace then Yak or waiting another three years for Hanifan because we messed up Nurse or Klefbom. I have no idea whether Eakins is the right coach. I do like him, so I really hope he is, but I am also really hoping Detroit has a bad year, because a free agent Babcock would be handy.

    ps: MacT better be looking closing at the scouting departments, because the Aulie/Coughlin/Bouchard picks/signings are looking like concerning repeats of past mistakes.

    All very good points and I read somewhere in the east that next years draft could very easily put as many as 9-10 players straight into the NHL .Have no idea who or where we will draft but we should expect another top player if we are 9th in the west ( Could we be 10th to 7th ).Anyway my point is playing the Klefbom , Marincin Nurse & Schultz may end up being the smart thing to do but can the fans live with another miss for the playoffs but what can we get for Petry or 1 of those 4 .That “C” who can also play wing ?

  22. Ryan says:

    Frank The Dog:
    Hi LT, Can you tell me at what point you would show Little Yak as a RW on the depth chart?
    After all Eakins has said he’s going t play him there now, or do you need to wait before that is reflected on your source info?

    The Yak RW situation is a real wrench in the cog for Eakins in terms of balancing the lines.

    The ‘easy’ solution would be to switch Perron and Purcell.

    This would be a huge downgrade for Leon as he would be trading a trigger man for another playmaker.

    Pouliot–Dry saddle–Purcell looks pretty meh.

    Leaving Perron-Arcobello-Yakupov which is sort of an odd line in that it has two players on their ‘off wing.’ This would be a silly line combination for anything outside of offensive zone starts for that reason alone plus, well Yakupov too.

    For home games, you could make sort of a ‘kid line’ for offensive zone starts with: Pouliot/Perron-Dry saddle–Yakupov, then have Pouliot/Perron-Arcobello–Purcell for heavier lifting.

    My prediction would be:

    Perron-Draisatl-Purcell
    Pouliot-Arcobello-Yakupov

    Which is too bad because Pouliot-Draisatl-Perron has looked pretty good.

  23. Frank The Dog says:

    Lowetide: I just don’t see all the fuss over bonus numbers and AHL numbers for this guy. Tkachev is worth second round money on a bet, so give it to him. Silly silly Oilers.

    LT, an honest question, what if Tkchakev’s agent’s ask was high first round? Would that still be ok?

  24. Lowetide says:

    Frank The Dog: LT, an honest question, what if Tkchakev’s agent’s ask was high first round? Would that still be ok?

    Iirc there’s a max you can give bonus-wise and then it’s all performance based. I’d offer him the moon performance-wise, because he’s going back to junior. give him full hop, he’s not going to get the at-bats.

    We’re talking (basically) about $92,500 signing bonus times three. That’s the money here. Pay the man.

  25. Ryan says:

    I haven’t been keeping as current as I’d like to with Corey sznajder’s zone entry data…

    Today while pursuing Defending Big D, I came across this chart:

    http://cdn2.vox-cdn.com/assets/5010240/ExitsEntries.jpg

    Your Edmonton Oilers look seemingly far better than they should by the zone entry data.

    By eye alone, the actual percentage of zone entries seems to correlate stronger with better teams than having an edge in carry in percentage.

    Thoughts?

  26. PerryK says:

    Lowetide: Eakins will need to juggle the lines, and I’m honestly not sure how he’ll do it. As soon as we see it in action, I’ll flip Yakupov.

    Flip both Yak and Perron and move Purcell and Pouliot up 1 / down 1 respectively.

  27. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Dallas’ outstanding carry in percentage seems to be driven by Tyler Seguin.

    Per DSF: http://dcbdotme.wordpress.com/2014/09/22/pivot/

    DSF has become a worthwhile stop lately. 🙂

    I always valued his contrarian views here even if they almost bordered on trolling, but we all had a different take on him.

  28. PerryK says:

    cahill: I have wondered if they keep 8 D as well.

    How would the Oilers feel about dressing 11 F’s and 7 D.TB did it last year when Stamkos got hurt.
    If Perron shifts back to LW and Yakupov moves to RW.You could rotate the LW’s (Hall-Perron-Pouliot)through the rest of the lines.It’s roughly 16 minutes of ES minutes per LW & none of them have spent much time on the PK.

    It may be easier to rotate the RWs. Keeping the duos on the other lines as RNH-Hall, Drai-Perron, Arco-Pouliot, Godon-Hendricks.

  29. Lowetide says:

    PerryK: Flip both Yak and Perron and move Purcell and Pouliot up 1 / down 1 respectively.

    Possibly, but they’re going to want to make sure LD succeeds. Yak is secondary in their minds, that’s my belief.

  30. tcho says:

    “I don’t think Aulie makes the roster based on what we know currently.” Let’s try to keep in mind that “what we know currently” is 2 preseason games. It’s the inverse of we should not get too excited about positive showings (Vladdy Hockey makes Taylor Hall expendable in a trade!). They knew Aulie was going to be a reclamation project. More time is needed (1/4 season?) before the Oilers start making judgements on this player, no?

  31. Lowetide says:

    tcho:
    “I don’t think Aulie makes the roster based on what we know currently.” Let’s try to keep in mind that “what we know currently” is 2 preseason games. It’s the inverse of we should not get too excited about positive showings (Vladdy Hockey makes Taylor Hall expendable in a trade!). They knew Aulie was going to be a reclamation project. More time is needed (1/4 season?) before the Oilers start making judgements on this player, no?

    Aulie hasn’t been effective for several years now. There was a time when he was an up and coming player, but he’s a suspect now.

  32. tcho says:

    Ryan: DSF has become a worthwhile stop lately.

    Ummm no. This is like saying Mao’s Little Red Book is a valuable resource on contemporary political theory. His hatred of the Oilers (despite his protestations to the contrary) control/distort what he investigates and the conclusions he reaches to such a degree as to render his contributions worthless.

    The Seguin investigation is an all-too-obvious attempt to make it look like the Oilers made the wrong choice taking Hall instead of Seguin.

  33. OilClog says:

    Ryan:
    Ryan,

    Dallas’ outstanding carry in percentage seems to be driven by Tyler Seguin.

    Per DSF:http://dcbdotme.wordpress.com/2014/09/22/pivot/

    DSF has become a worthwhile stop lately.

    I always valued his contrarian views here even if they almost bordered on trolling, but we all had a different take on him.

    We’ve heard this from DSF for infinity and beyond.. I guess thanks for the reminder.

  34. Frank The Dog says:

    tcho:
    “I don’t think Aulie makes the roster based on what we know currently.” Let’s try to keep in mind that “what we know currently” is 2 preseason games. It’s the inverse of we should not get too excited about positive showings (Vladdy Hockey makes Taylor Hall expendable in a trade!). They knew Aulie was going to be a reclamation project. More time is needed (1/4 season?) before the Oilers start making judgements on this player, no?

    I do think Tiny Tkchak may make little Yak expendable in a trade at some point. Tjach fits, Yak hasn’t so far but the poor fellow is botched beggared and bewildered from inept coaching that has taken him from a #1 sharpshooter to a reclamation project. I’ll tip my hat to any coaching team that can pull that one off particularly so if it’s Ramsay & Co.

  35. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide: It’s certainly possible. A lot depends on Nurse of course, but if the Oilers are looking for toughness and Aulie can’t play at NHL level (and he’s been poor so far), Nurse would be a candidate. I’ve suggested all along they’d keep him for 9 games, and Aulie’s slip may be enough.

    Aulie had the best windgate score on the Oilers.

    Blew the test away (so to speak….)

    That and being a former Marlie means he might stick around despite not being the 8th best Dman in camp.

    I sure as hell hope not.

    The time for that kind of fuckery is done.

    Head north are get out of the game.

  36. PerryK says:

    Lowetide: Possibly, but they’re going to want to make sure LD succeeds. Yak is secondary in their minds, that’s my belief.

    I agree. That is why you go with Perron as LW for him and Purcell as the RW. Purcell has higher offensive ceiling.

    Also, LD’s favourite move seems to be to carry the puck in to the Ozone, come to a sharp halt on the RW half boards and look for a RHS trailer (Perron playing LW). I think that if we try this experiment, we will have a permanent duo in LD and Perron.

  37. Ryan says:

    OilClog: We’ve heard this from DSF for infinity and beyond.. I guess thanks for the reminder.

    Haha, sorry! I had just meant to reference his Cory Sznajder quote on Seguin.

  38. Marc says:

    Frank The Dog: I do think Tiny Tkchak may make little Yak expendable in a trade at some point. Tjach fits, Yak hasn’t so far but the poor fellow is botched beggared and bewildered from inept coachingthat has taken him from a #1 sharpshooter to a reclamation project. I’ll tip my hat to any coaching team that can pull that one off particularly so if it’s Ramsay & Co.

    I’m sorry, but this is just crazy talk. Crazy!

    Yakupov was the top rated forward in his draft year. History tells us that the top rated forward in a draft almost always turns into a very good to elite player. History also tells us that it can take five or six years playing in the NHL for the top rated forward in a draft to actually look like an elite player.

    It took six seasons for the Sedins to finally start scoring at elite levels. They then rolled off six consecutive seasons ranked among the very best players in the game. We have miles to go before we can even start the conversation among about Yak being a bust.

    Tkachev on the other hand is still unlikely to ever play even 50 NHL games based on his size. Remember Omark? Or Rajala? Or Thoresen? It’s incredibly difficult for tiny players to establish themselves in the NHL, even when they shoot the lights out in the lower leagues. There is good money in Europe for these guys, so even if they could potentially play in the NHL, a lot of them take the paycheque over there instead of grinding it out in the minors waitng for a chance (the way that Arcobello did).

    I hope the Oilers sign him, and hope he’s one of the extreme outliers that make it in the NHL despite being 5’9” or smaller. But the plain truth is that even if he does sign with the Oil, he’s got about as much chance of playing 200+ games in the NHL as Kessy does, and possibly less.

  39. dwillms says:

    #Oilers lines tomorrow in Saskatoon –>

    Perron-Draisaitl-Yakupov
    Pakarinen-Lander-Eberle
    Kessy-Arco-Purcell
    C.Hamilton-Williams-Joensuu

    Marincin-Gernat
    Ference-Simpson
    Oesterle-Schultz

    Bachman/LB are the goalies.

  40. speeds says:

    Marc:
    I hope the Oilers sign him, and hope he’s one of the extreme outliers that make it in the NHL despite being 5’9” or smaller.But the plain truth is that even if he does sign with the Oil, he’s got about as much chance of playing 200+ games in the NHL as Kessy does, and possibly less.

    All games played are not equal. Even if it’s true that he has a lower chance of playing 200 games in the NHL, in the case that he does make, he’s probably more likely to be an impact player than Kessy.

  41. thejonrmcleod says:

    Ryan,

    I laughed out loud when I was reading DSF’s list of centres better than RNH, and on the list was…

    “Jiri Hudler (if he played centre)”

  42. wheatnoil says:

    Oilers lines in Saskatoon tomorrow (C-L-R)

    Draisaitl – Perron – Yakupov
    Lander – Pakarinen – Eberle
    Arcobello – Kessy – Purcell
    Williams – C. Hamilton – Joensuu

    Marincin – Gernat
    Ference – Simpson
    Oesterle – Schultz

    Highlights:
    1) Perron and Yakupov on their off-wings with Draisaitl in the middle… that could be pretty awesome in the offensive zone and off the rush with Drai setting up his wingers with some great passes for one-times, but could be a disaster in the D-zone.
    2) That’s not a bad spot for Pakarinen… if it weren’t for waivers he’d be a real darkhorse candidate for a spot and he’s in the fight for the first call-up.
    3) Kessy gets the push over Joensuu.
    4) Williams gets a game. I wonder if he’ll be cut after this one to get started down in OKC.

    Nothing too exciting on D, but it will be fun to see the twin towers of Marincin and Gernat on the same line. The NCAA kids draw in this game with Gernat, so I imagine it’ll be Klefbom, Hunt, and Musil in Edmonton on Monday. That’s also another game without Petry. It’s not something to get too worried about yet, but the longer pre-season goes without him drawing in, the more likely it is that Nurse gets his 9 games and/or Klefbom starts the year in the majors. Has Petry been taking part in practices this week and if he has been, has he been contact or non-contact?

  43. wheatnoil says:

    dwillms,

    I knew I should have refreshed before clicking “post”! 🙂

    The only thing to add is that Eakins says that Bachman will play the whole game. After this game it’ll be basically Scrivens & Fasth the rest of the way.

  44. PerryK says:

    Marc: I’m sorry, but this is just crazy talk. Crazy!

    Yakupov was the top rated forward in his draft year. History tells us that the top rated forward in a draft almost always turns into a very good to elite player. History also tells us that it can take five or six years playing in the NHL for the top rated forward in a draft to actually look like an elite player.

    It took six seasons for the Sedins to finally start scoring at elite levels. They then rolled off six consecutive seasons ranked among the very best players in the game.We have miles to go before we can even start the conversation among about Yak being a bust.

    Tkachev on the other hand is still unlikely to ever play even 50 NHL games based on his size. Remember Omark? Or Rajala? Or Thoresen? It’s incredibly difficult for tiny players to establish themselves in the NHL, even when they shoot the lights out in the lower leagues. There is good money in Europe for these guys, so even if they could potentially play in the NHL, a lot of them take the paycheque over there instead of grinding it out in the minors waitng for a chance (the way that Arcobello did).

    I hope the Oilers sign him, and hope he’s one of the extreme outliers that make it in the NHL despite being 5’9” or smaller.But the plain truth is that even if he does sign with the Oil, he’s got about as much chance of playing 200+ games in the NHL as Kessy does, and possibly less.

    For example, Brett Hull’s break out season was when he was 24.

  45. Frank The Dog says:

    Lowetide,

    Thank you.

  46. Frank The Dog says:

    Marc: I’m sorry, but this is just crazy talk. Crazy!

    Yakupov was the top rated forward in his draft year. History tells us that the top rated forward in a draft almost always turns into a very good to elite player. History also tells us that it can take five or six years playing in the NHL for the top rated forward in a draft to actually look like an elite player.

    It took six seasons for the Sedins to finally start scoring at elite levels. They then rolled off six consecutive seasons ranked among the very best players in the game.We have miles to go before we can even start the conversation among about Yak being a bust.

    Tkachev on the other hand is still unlikely to ever play even 50 NHL games based on his size. Remember Omark? Or Rajala? Or Thoresen? It’s incredibly difficult for tiny players to establish themselves in the NHL, even when they shoot the lights out in the lower leagues. There is good money in Europe for these guys, so even if they could potentially play in the NHL, a lot of them take the paycheque over there instead of grinding it out in the minors waitng for a chance (the way that Arcobello did).

    I hope the Oilers sign him, and hope he’s one of the extreme outliers that make it in the NHL despite being 5’9” or smaller.But the plain truth is that even if he does sign with the Oil, he’s got about as much chance of playing 200+ games in the NHL as Kessy does, and possibly less.

    It would be great if the new coaching team was able to get enough year by year improvement out of Yak to justify keeping him here for the full 5 year period, and if he did suddenly explode on offence n a positive way.
    I have seen more than a few talented people in the workplace that had solid work records whose careers were wrecked through inept management. Yak has been ineptly managed, for sure, I hop it’s not too late to turn that around.

  47. Marc says:

    speeds: All game played are not equal. Even if it’s true that he has a lower chance of playing 200 games in the NHL, in the case that he does make, he’s probably more likely to be an impact player than Kessy.

    Of course Tkachev is more likely to be an impact player if he makes the league – pretty much the only way he makes the league is if he is if he can put up decent scoring numbers.

    Let’s say that Tkachev has a 10% chance (pulled out of the air, but probably not too far off the truth. The only impact sub 5’10” prospect drafted/signed by the Oilers in the last 15 years is Mike Comrie) of making the NHL, but has 100% chance of being an impact player if he does make it.

    Kessy on the other hand, might have a 20% chance of making it, but only a 25% chance of being a impact player (ie. a Lucic or Glencross type who scores better at the NHL level than their minor league performance suggests).

    Which is the better prospect? Tkachev (on these assumptions) is twice as likely to be an impact player, but half as likely to be a player of any kind.

    What do you want in your system? Ideally both. Too many Tkachev-like bets and you risk getting no NHL players out of the lower end of your drafts. Too many Kessy-like bets and you end up like with a couple of plugs and notihing that can play in the top six.

  48. G Money says:

    Marc,

    Well put.

  49. Lowetide says:

    Marc: Of course Tkachev is more likely to be an impact player if he makes the league – pretty much the only way he makes the league is if he is if he can put up decent scoring numbers.

    Let’s say that Tkachev has a 10% chance (pulled out of the air, but probably not too far off the truth. The only impact sub 5’10” prospect drafted/signed by the Oilers in the last 15 years is Mike Comrie) of making the NHL, but has 100% chance of being an impact player if he does make it.

    Kessy on the other hand, might have a 20% chance of making it, but only a 25% chance of being a impact player (ie. a Lucic or Glencross type who scores better at the NHL level than their minor league performance suggests).

    Which is the better prospect? Tkachev (on these assumptions) is twice as likely to be an impact player, but half as likely to be a player of any kind.

    What do you want in your system?Ideally both.Too many Tkachev-like bets and you risk getting no NHL players out of the lower end of your drafts. Too many Kessy-like bets and you end up like with a couple of plugs and notihing that can play in the top six.

    I think NHL teams should realize that Kessy’s, fully formed ones, are available readily via waivers and small trades. Tkachev’s, or what they might become, are what you spend draft picks on. Draft possible jacks and kings, acquire 6’s and 7’s for things less dear.

  50. Frank The Dog says:

    Which player of similar size, weight and style to Yak would we like him to end up being similar to in terms of output?

    Would Patrick Kane be a realistic target for Tkachev?

  51. TheOtherJohn says:

    Tyler Ennis

  52. Zangetsu says:

    Surprised that Markstrom passed through waivers. Wish he was out there last year, so it would have made sense to take a chance on him. Penner is just sitting at home, surprised he didn’t get any kind of PTO. As far as lines go, I am wrestling with a few options. I don’t want to break up the 1line, but that might solve some problems. Purcell can play both sides, unless I’m mistaken, so that might be a better option than shifting Perron. I am worried about Draisaitl, sure he has the size to play now, but I don’t know he has the speed yet. We don’t need another top pick with his confidence in the toilet.

    It’s still preseason, and there are still weird stories floating around. I always liked Hamilton more than Pitlick, but I suspect both are going to get buried here. I really disagree with LT on Pitlick. I don’t think he is a viable 4RW yet, and the clock is ticking. I am also worried about Hendricks. I know I’m about the only one, but I think his performance starts to die off here, along with Ference. Those are depth problems though. I know we’ve beaten this to death, but I just hope to god a centre shakes loose.
    Depth chart

    Hall RNH Ebs

    Purcell Draisaitl Perron

    Pouliot Arco Yakupov

    Hendricks Gordon Lander

    Swollen Fists

  53. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: I think NHL teams should realize that Kessy’s, fully formed ones, are available readily via waivers and small trades. Tkachev’s, or what they might become, are what you spend draft picks on. Draft possible jacks and kings, acquire 6′s and 7′s for things less dear.

    Which is why I look back at the last three rounds of the draft and think “Coughlin, Vesel and Bouchard or Tkachev, Vesel and Kulda?”

    We spend a lot of time here praising Greg Chase as a draft-day steal and wonder how he slid to the 7th round.

    Kulda may not play in the NHL, nor Vesel or Tkachev, but I’d put more money on them than Coughlin and Bouchard.

  54. Ryan says:

    Zangetsu,

    Hall-RNH-Yak
    perron-Dry-Eberle
    Pouliot-Arcobello-Purcell
    Hendricks-Gordon-waiver claim

  55. SinceTheWHADays says:

    Gazdic & Wessgsrth? Your high.

  56. Marc says:

    Lowetide: I think NHL teams should realize that Kessy’s, fully formed ones, are available readily via waivers and small trades. Tkachev’s, or what they might become, are what you spend draft picks on. Draft possible jacks and kings, acquire 6′s and 7′s for things less dear.

    There are two problems with that strategy, both of which are evident from the Oilers’ experience.

    The first is that it is a high risk, high reward strategy. As I noted in my comment above, in the past 15 years the Oilers have drafted/signed more than a dozen of this type of player and have ended up with precisely one impact NHL player – Comrie. Even if you took 3 or 4 Tkachev types per draft, instead of 1 or 2 the way the Oilers currently do, then you’re still only likely to end up with 2 or 3 players over 15 years. That simply isn’t enough.

    The second problem is that undersized scorers who don’t quite make it to the NHL have almost no trade value, so you can’t use them to acquire 6′s and 7′s. Omark had no trade value. Rajala had no trade value. Thoresen had no trade value. And so on, and so on.

    A team that focuses on drafting Tkachev types will be in the invidious position of needing lots of draft picks because the player type it focuses on in the draft is less likely to make it to the show than larger, less skilled players, and having to use draft picks to acquire 6′s and 7′s, because the player type it focuses on has no trade value when they don’t make the show.

    I just don’t see how such a draft strategy could possibly be sustainable.

  57. Ryan says:

    Zangetsu,

    I forgot to say that I agree with you about Pitlick… I don’t think he has enough offense to even be a decent 4rth liner. I also don’t think Lander has an NHL career ahead of him either, so let’s hope I’m wrong about one of them at least.

  58. Ryan says:

    Marc,

    Hey bud, while you make absolutely perfect sense to me, don’t forget you’re in the Oiligosphere…

    A place where people like Derrick zona spend three years lamenting the fact that Omark isn’t playing on our 4rth line… In spite of the reality that he can’t kill penalties, there’s no room for him on the PP, or that he’s not actually that good of a hockey player.

    The Oiligosphere loves its small skilled hockey players who have a outside chance at a cup of coffee in the nhl.

  59. Snowman says:

    I’m confident Pitlick will be successful if he can stay healthy. He’s got the tools. He played well enough in his short stint here last year and he’s having a good camp. I think it’s a safe bet that he’ll have a career.

    Lander too. There’s too much skill there to not make it. He can be a Gordon type player in my mind. If he can take and make a pass, play the toughs and penalty kill, well folks, that’s what you call a useful NHLer. One day he’ll find his bat and start putting up some numbers. He’ll never play top 6 minutes but he’ll make it. In 3 or 4 years he might replace Gordon on this team. I don’t worry about those guys.

    They may not make it in Edmonton but they’ll make it. Or at least I’m cheering for them.

  60. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: I think NHL teams should realize that Kessy’s, fully formed ones, are available readily via waivers and small trades. Tkachev’s, or what they might become, are what you spend draft picks on. Draft possible jacks and kings, acquire 6′s and 7′s for things less dear.

    Kessy’s, unformed, are drafted in later rounds, because one is looking for Yvon Lambert or Mike Krushenyski, and in the hopes one finds a four-leaf-Lucic.

    One can draft the Tkachev’s in later rounds too. Or one can wait an extra year or two, and follow a bunch of scoring midgets in junior, and sign them when they finish junior hockey, as the OIlers have done with Holmberq and Winquest.

    One shouldn’t ignore or prefer any type of player late in the draft.

    One needs a balanced roster on the farm team also to properly develop prospects of all types.

    For example, Arcobello, Hunt, Laleggia, Kellen and Connor Jones were all drafted or signed primarily to be assets that help the development environment in the farm system. And then you hope you get lucky. To get the better coke machine lottery tickets, one probably has to draft one or two occasionally in the later rounds.

  61. Ducey says:

    Lowetide: I think NHL teams should realize that Kessy’s, fully formed ones, are available readily via waivers and small trades. Tkachev’s, or what they might become, are what you spend draft picks on. Draft possible jacks and kings, acquire 6′s and 7′s for things less dear.

    Tkachev’s are by definition available for free.

    Small guys (Rajala, Omark, the Jones brothers, Holmberg, Miller, Arcobello* (before he stepped up)) are always freely available the same way the Kessy’s are.

    I agree that you should select for talent, but ideally you get talent in a bigger body. Sometimes in the late rounds you go for the small guy and hope he will be able to survive. Other times you hope that the big guy will develop some hands.

    I would submit the odds of both happening and the value of the two types of players are about the same.

    *these are just the ones that come to mind in the recent Oilers experience. There are loads of them elsewhere too.

  62. Ducey says:

    Man, I am home sick in bed today. Seems I am hallucinating that I agree with Godot.

  63. oilinthepeg says:

    Anyone know if Chicago’s lineup has been posted anywhere?

  64. Marc says:

    godot10,

    That would be my preferred approach as well. BPA – with a good mix of player types and positions.

    The latter rounds of the draft are a crap shoot, and if you try to shoot for a particular type of crap, so to speak, you’re just making the job of getting useful NHL players that much harder.

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