NOBODY KNOWS YOU (WHEN YOU’RE DOWN AND OUT)

It is time my friends, to break out the blues. Pour me another rye whiskey. Smiles and blue skies aren’t selling this year, it’s my baby left me and my dog died and my momma only has one shoe. Four games and the summer’s work is ashes. Lordy. Whatever Edmonton gave the hockey Gods for those long ago Stanley’s, our town is paying in full and with tax on the tax.

I’m worried about Dallas Eakins getting any sleep at all. You need sleep you know, to function. I know Eakins is a target of fans but the guy has a very good brain and does innovative things. He isn’t perfect, and sometimes his actions run counter with what we know to be traditional wisdom. I’m all for that, some of my favorite coaches and managers over the years have been that sort. But it has to work or you look ridiculous, and when you’re running a lot of the “outside the lines” experiments at the same time, it can run a little hot when the results aren’t there.

marincin and schultz

LAST NIGHT’S EV TOI (BLUE)

  1. Justin Schultz 24:51
  2. Nikita Nikitin 20:20
  3. Andrew Ference 15:53
  4. Darnell Nurse 15:09
  5. Jeff Petry 12:05
  6. Mark Fayne 11:48

I believe that’s correct, the NHL is doing this weird thing in 2014-15 where they list PP, PK and total time on ice but not evens so I’m going with this and stand to be corrected. I think you could make a strong case that the No. 5 and 6 men should be at the top, and that Schultz should be at or near the bottom depending on zone starts.

  • Rob Vollman, 2014 Hockey Abstract: The Oilers finally addressed their blue line issues this summer. Mark Fayne should be an effective top pairing shutdown defenceman, especially if he’s alongside the highly underrated Jeff Petry. Slovakian rookie Martin Marincin was very promising in his short stint alongside Petry, and could be a legitimate top-four defenceman, as could Nikita Nikitin, if he lives up to the incredible promise he showed in 2011–12 in Columbus. And, assuming he is re-signed, Justin Schultz could nicely fill a Keith Yandle or Torey Krug type of role as a big-minutes but sheltered puck-moving defenceman, a situation in which Andrew Ference might still remain a positive contributor as support. At least one of Oscar Klefbom and Keith Aulie should be a usable depth option.

Vollman points out that Craig MacTavish addressed the blueline, and states that with Petry and Fayne there might be an effective top pairing. I spoke with Rob, and asked him about the idea of an unusual ‘two righty’ defensive pairing, and he had a great point about rarity. Basically the reason we don’t see two righties is they are more rare, whereas two lefties on a pairing doesn’t raise an eyebrow. Either way, the current usage of these men is extremely questionable in my opinion.

And the Martin Marincin item is really curious. Why do the Oilers employ and deploy as they are doing? It’s very strange to me. I’m not going to lash out at Craig MacTavish or Dallas Eakins because they are smart men and know miles more about NHL hockey than I do. However, I would once again point out that when you make unusual moves and they do not work out (and 0-3-1 is by definition not working out) people are going to (correctly) say something.

  • Marincin—Petry
  • Klefbom—Fayne (because I think Nikitin is not 100%)
  • Ference—Schultz

Try that for four games with the Petry and Fayne pairings getting most of the even-strength work and see if you end up 0-3-1. Fair?

scrivens11

THE GOALTENDING

Aaaand we’re back. As with Devan Dubnyk last season, I don’t think Ben Scrivens is a terrible goaltender but he is having a tough start. When Edmonton acquired him last year, he was playing at his confident best and the Oilers had figured out a few things about themselves. This season, Scrivens was behind during camp and hasn’t recovered, and the Oilers (partly due to their long, long audition process during preseason) are still sussing out how the defense works and now we’re four losses into the actual campaign.

  • Devan Dubnyk 2013-14 October as an Oiler: 2-5-1 4.01 .878
  • Ben Scrivens 2014-15 October as an Oilers: 0-2-0 5.22 .800

The twitter and the verbal is way down on Scrivens, but as with Dubnyk a year ago I’d suggest we take a more patient approach. This is the same guy who set record a year ago with 59 saves in a shutout (most in the expansion era). So hold your muskets at bay, ladies, this guy can play. His NHL SP by year: .903, .913 and .916 a year ago, and given time his save percentage will move back closer to the career number. If you’ve ever seen small sample sizes skew the view in sports, you know this to be true.

You know this to be true. You know this to be true.

THE LONG KNIVES OUT ALREADY?

Adam Proteau has an article up at The Hockey News (here) and it’s worth the read for sure. It’s the longer version of Ray Ferraro’s fantastic and biting “I don’t care what management says anymore” quip on the radio a week or so ago.

Sometimes in life things happen to create a perfect storm, and this is one of those cases. Imagine you’re caught in the wilderness, and winter is coming. Back in the town, they know you’re out there and want to come get you but are ill-equipped with leadership. And the first rescue crew gets lost and aside from sending one guy (Sheldon) out for chocolate they don’t get much done. Now, the second crew gets a late start but they’re making good time (h/t Pat McLean), but you don’t give a rat’s ass it’s cold outside and you’re losing hope. And the wind howls and the cold cuts through your bones and the latest news is not promising.

It kind of reads Donner party, doesn’t it?

hall pass

WHAT’S GOOD ABOUT THIS TEAM?

Even with the 0-3-1 record the Fenwick close is solid, basically mid-pack. Taylor Hall is a beast. Eakins is deploying his men in a completely reasonable way in terms of zone starts and his 4line is a dream. Arcobello is standing out as a particularly useful player and at this point I’m prepared to suggest the center position has a keeper there. Benoit Pouliot is exactly what this team needed, and please don’t go crazy on the O-zone penalties. See how much he does to calm the waters. Teddy Purcell is a fine player.

WHAT ARE MOVES THE CAN BE DONE TODAY IN ORDER TO HELP

  1. Recall Martin Marincin.
  2. Put him on a pairing with Jeff Petry and play the hell out of them at evens.
  3. Find the best available partner from the remnants to go with Mark Fayne.
  4. Play the hell out of that pairing at evens.
  5. Go back to Ben Scrivens Friday night, unless he’s hurt. He’s absolutely the best available option and if the organization loses faith after three games then it’s going to be a long decade in our town.
  6. Send Leon out.
  7. Find a veteran center to help this team. Stat.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

600full-the-bourne-identity-photo

10 this morning, TSN 1260. We begin the proceedings with Dr. Dennis King, who has scalpel at the ready and insists no one receive any anaesthesia before he operates at 10:05. That’s followed by Corey Graham, who’ll update us on the rollercoaster Oil Kings and their successful (so far) week. At 11, Scott Cullen from TSN’s analytics department goes deep to give us some answers on this Oiler start from Gehenna and at 11:20 I’ll open up the phone lines (yesterday was fun, great calls—one from Ottawa!) and read your texts. At 11:40 it’s Dave Jamieson and by the time he hits the air at noon maybe we’ll have the name of that center.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ and it’s going to be interesting.

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306 Responses to "NOBODY KNOWS YOU (WHEN YOU’RE DOWN AND OUT)"

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  1. PeOiler says:

    “…and my momma only has one shoe.”

    This made me promptly laugh coffee all over my self. Excuse me while I change my pants.

  2. delooper says:

    That all sounds pretty reasonable. So… bring on some bipolar craziness in the comments!

  3. Doomoil says:

    I don’t understand how the forward deployment can be so good and the defense deployment so inexplicable.

  4. borisnikov says:

    It’s going to be a long, dark, disappointing winter.

  5. MenovOil says:

    Recalling Marincin won’t solve all of this team’s problem. Denial is not only a river in Egypt.

    This organization needs a USSR Stalin type purge. Everything in this org is crap. Our drafting is crap, our player development is crap, our coaching is crap, our product on the ice is crap, etc.

    The players are suffocating beneath the complete incompetence that surrounds them. I can’t even begin to imagine what’s it’s like for them to be trapped in this.

    Send Lowe to a Gulag, Julien Brisebois as the GM and Guy Boucher as the coach. That’s how you turn this frachise, not by recalling some d-man from the AHL.

  6. Yeti says:

    LT: you missed sending Nurse back to junior. I can’t see how his presence here helps either (1) him or (2) the team.

  7. russ99 says:

    Seven straight home games in the next 14 days.

    Only 3 against Western teams and we have last change.

    If we’re going to fix things, it has to be now.

    If Eakins won’t change, he needs to go. I’d feel a lot better losing if someone like Nelson was working with the kids (something truly missing since Krueger was axed) and at least moving things forward.

  8. betamanic says:

    No, sorry. Eakins needs to go. Twice he has been given an improved roster, and twice he has shown nothing but ineptitude in motivating, assembling and deploying it.

  9. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I don’t care if we lack center depth, I don’t want Leon to play for the team anymore. It’s not him, it’s us. He is better served dominating Junior than standing on the sidelines of this bonfire of a season. I’d rather have Yakimov if that’s what has to happen… though clearly the best option is to find some sort of a trade, any sort.

    Nurse… I don’t know. I’d rather have him on the team than Leon at this point, just because he’s a year older and I’ve been impressed with his relative maturity. That said my preference is to send him down too.

    I haven’t been one of these guys, I’ve tried to stay patient…. I think we need to trade one of the golden kids. Probably Eberle. If we can get 2 roster players (depth C and 2nd pairing D) then that’s probably enough. Not sure we can get it but crazier things have happened, the idea at least needs to be shopped around.

    If we can trade Schultz (entirely possible given his PERCEIVED value) then we should do so. Quickly, before other people figure out what we already know, as per the Smid trade. That said we should be able to get more back for Schultz than we did for Smid (again, because of PERCEIVED value).

  10. Yeti says:

    MenovOil,

    You can really see the depths things have reached when Stalin is being called upon as a solution to the teams’ issues.

  11. G Money says:

    That TOI for D deployment is 100% reversed.

    100%.

    Smartest guy in the room.

  12. JUST********WOWIT says:

    borisnikov:
    It’s going to be a long, dark, disappointing winter.

    Now is the winter of our discontent / Made glorious summer by this sun of York…

  13. Woodguy says:

    Justin Schultz 24:51
    Nikita Nikitin 20:20
    Andrew Ference 15:53
    Darnell Nurse 15:09
    Jeff Petry 12:05
    Mark Fayne 11:48

    That it right there LT.

    That’s the boogeyman.

    That’s the piece of lego on the stairs that you step on at 3:00am when you got up to let that damn dog out for another pee.

    When you look at last year’s 5v5 TOI it looks somewhat similar:

    Justin Schultz 18:55
    Andrew Ference 17:48
    Jeff Petry 17:41
    Martin Marincin 16:19
    Ladislav Smid 15:20
    Oscar Klefbom 15:01
    Anton Belov 14:52
    Philip Larsen 14:39
    Nick Schultz 14:29
    Mark Fraser 13:32

    This coach and GM have decided that Jultz is their best option to win and he takes his partner with him up the TOI ladder.

    Here is the On Ice CA/20 (shot attempts against per 60 min) from last year

    EDIT: THIS IS CA/20 NOT CA/60

    PETRY, JEFF 19.186
    MARINCIN, MARTIN 19.711
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR 19.866
    BELOV, ANTON 20.428
    LARSEN, PHILIP 22.349
    FRASER, MARK 22.462
    FERENCE, ANDREW 22.661
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN 23.009

    They are playing their worst defensive Dman the most.

    Full stop.

    This organization has decided that Justin Shulz is Paul Coffey.

    I don’t think anything really changes until that changes, or Jultz gets better.

    I’m not betting against the Oilers signing Jultz long term for a lot of money and I’m not betting on him getting any better either.

    I think I may find a new hobby.

    This one is too frustrating and frustration leads to stress

    I get enough stress running a business, I don’t need it in my leisure time.

  14. Cobbler says:

    Franka Potente is fantastic!

    LT, are you suggesting that the Oilers are suffering from amnesia and are searching for their identity?

  15. G Money says:

    I posted this last night, and it is fully in line with LT’s article commentary:

    I’m more mad than anything else.

    I haven’t yet lost all shreds of hope.

    If this team is this bad defensively with a steady diet of Petry-Marincin and Fayne-Nikitin (if Nikitin’s ankle is going to get worse by playing, then give Nurse the rest of his 9 games with Fayne while Nikitin heals) as the top 4, and Ference-Klefbom-Schultz rotating on the bottom pairing with Schultz getting heavy PP minutes and as few EV minutes as you can get away – if they’re still anywhere near this bad, then I’ll panic.

    But I just don’t think they will be.

    But for that to happen, Eakins/MacT will need to admit their view of what comprises a good defenseman has been completely clueless so far.

    The question is: what will crack first, Eakins’ job or his ego?

  16. JUST********WOWIT says:

    russ99: Seven straight home games in the next 14 days.

    I wonder if they’re going to do the ‘Free Jersey Night’ during this homestand?

    I hope not – I really, really do.

  17. SoCaloil says:

    I didn’t watch the game but noticed Petry was -3
    And fayne was what -2 bc he got one?
    Any comments in that regard?

  18. G Money says:

    I also posted this at the end of the last thread, and I am reposting (rare) because a. again, it’s 100% in line with the article, and b. my additional point here is that I do think we need to hear from Ramsay his version of what’s going on.

    I’d like to hear from Ramsay, not Eakins.

    Any reasonable expectations of improvement of the team this year were predicated on: decent goaltending, better defense (+Fayne, +Nikitin), some bigger and/or older NHL forwards, better defensive coaching (Ramsay), better PP (Ramsay).

    The forwards do genuinely look more capable, and there is a whole lot more movement on the PP. Yay.

    All of that is offset by the defense and the goaltending.

    So far the goaltending is not good, but it’s too early to panic, even five or eight game slumps for goalies are common. I’ll wait for Scrivens to adjust before pushing that button.

    But the defense. Holy shit.

    Some of that is bad roster decisions (MM, JP) and the deployment (JS remains the biggest minute muncher), for sure, and those desperately need to get better.

    But Ramsay is a real actual experienced NHL coach, with a reputation for teaching, and a guy with legit defensive chops.

    What does he think is going on?
    Does *he* think it’s just big mistakes and bad luck?
    Does he think the bleeding will stop?
    What’s he going to do about it?

  19. JUST********WOWIT says:

    SoCaloil: I didn’t watch the game but noticed Petry was -3

    The consensus is that Petry had his worst game in recent memory last night. Check out Cult of Hockey player grades.

  20. wunderbar says:

    Ok, I have a legit question that no one here will have a knowledgeable answer to, but I think it needs to be brought up:

    Craig Ramsey was brought in for 3 things: his experience, to fix the PP, and to work on the blue.

    The experience factor is a black and white fact. He has it.

    The PP has been miles better in 4 games. Part of the problem is they aren’t getting enough of them, but at one point they had scored on 3 of their first 4. Small sample size and all but it looks better this year.

    That leaves the blue.

    Now, how much of the TOI deployment we see last night is Ramsey’s doing, and/or how much is Eakins’? The “system” they are currently trying to play, is that Ramsey’s system? Eakins? a blend of 2 thoughts that isn’t working? Something is amiss here, and I think we need to put our collective heads together and try to figure it out.

    There are multiple problems, starting with the roster decisions before game 1. Intentionally sending down their second best defender is on some combination of coach and GM.

    HS’ing Petry is on the coach, though maybe with a bit of influence from MacT and/or Ramsey.

    the TOI deployments though 4 games are downright baffling, and that is on some combination of Eakins and Ramsey.

    The common thread there is Eakins, but while I’m quite happy to toss him under the bus at this point just because what is happening is truly baffling but there have to be other factors.

  21. Cobbler says:

    Things that can be done for free to help out

    1. Recall Martin Marincin.
    2. Put him on a pairing with Jeff Petry and play the hell out of them at evens.
    3. Find the best available partner from the remnants to go with Mark Fayne.
    4. Play the hell out of that pairing at evens.
    5. Go back to Ben Scrivens Friday night, unless he’s hurt. He’s absolutely the best available option and if the organization loses faith after three games then it’s going to be a long decade in our town.

    6. Tell Scrivens to stay in the net.
    7. Tell someone to always be in front of the net/slot.

  22. SoCaloil says:

    G Money,

    Lol. His job for sure!

  23. Cobbler says:

    JUST********WOWIT,

    -3 ain’t bad givem the score!!

  24. wunderbar says:

    SoCaloil:
    I didn’t watch the game but noticed Petry was -3
    And fayne was what -2 bc he got one?
    Any comments in that regard?

    Petry already has one foot on the airplane to whereever he ends up. Only reason he’s not there yet is because he doesn’t know where he’s going.

    If I were Petry and being treated the way I was by the Oilers over the past few months, I wouldn’t be especially happy, and as much as we can say “these are pro athletes” etc, his play will likely at least partly reflect this.

  25. JUST********WOWIT says:

    G Money: But Ramsay is a real actual experienced NHL coach

    Well last night’s effort reminded me of the 2010 Thrashers – and wouldn’t he be in charge of TOI for the blue?

  26. 106 and 106 says:

    Woodguy,

    Very good breakdown, Woodguy. Having actual top 4 NHL defensemen and not playing them like they were beyond baffles me.

    And who the heck is Brad Hunt? How did this guy win a spot out of TC?

  27. borisnikov says:

    Woodguy:
    I think I may find a new hobby.

    This one is too frustrating and frustration leads to stress

    I get enough stress running a business, I don’t need it in my leisure time.

    I actually said to my wife last night before the game “I wish you enjoyed hockey so we could spend this time together.” She looked at me with the same eyes as when I forget the item she told me to bring up form the basement, 2 minutes earlier, and in it’s place is a beer.

    The problems with this line of thought are glaringly apparent to me this morning.

    1. Why the hell would she want to join my misery?
    2. Why the hell am I choosing these sad sack clowns over her on a semi-nightly basis?

    It is time to seriously reasses priorities.

  28. Henry says:

    Is there a way to look at CA/60 broken down by period? It might be good to test the hypothesis that Justin Schultz gets tired and can’t handle the big minutes in the third period like a normal human that isn’t Pronger.

  29. "Frank The Dog" says:

    If the fans can suggest better lineups than the coaching staff we’re in deep trouble.
    The performance of the D and Goaltending are issues. the problem is whoever is making these decisions has lost touch with common sense.

    The NHL is not a development league and this team cannot afford more than 1 political deployment.
    We have:
    1) Schultz playing too many minutes
    2) Ference playing.
    3) MM sent down
    Let alone the Hunt deployment.

    This doesn’t look or feel like a Ramsay deployment. Time to get back to basics, ice the best players.
    Marincin Petry
    Nikitin Fayne
    Klefbom Schultz sheltered o-zone minutes.
    Ference
    Nurse for 9 games, IR Nikitin or Petry or whoever could use some time to heal.

    I’m saying Klef with Schultz because Klef seemed to pay well with Schultz in the past.
    Common sense. The antithesis of hair brained. –

  30. rich says:

    Woodguy,

    This defensive deployment – along with the system they play is incredibly disappointing. It says either that MacT and Eakins are the smartest men in the room or they really don’t care about winning because it’s negligent. It’s making their goaltending look even worse.

    If this team loses their next 2 games and they start 0-5-1, MacT is going to have no choice but to make a change behind the bench – and if that happens, he’s the one who tied the noose around his coach’s neck by sending one of his top 2 defensemen to OKC.

  31. Chris says:

    I don’t feel likely I’d be angry about a poor start if the team was at least sending out their best line up and awarding ice team consistent with that. Its the fact that they undermine themselves with irrational behaviour that is deeply frustrating. I hear Eakins on the radio saying its not “wins or losses its the process” and the hilarious thing about that is his process is clearly wrong. If the knives are out for Eakins at this point I see no one else for him to blame but himself and his own stupidity. He’s displaying the same irrational love for hard working Ahlers that MacT had which saw Toby Peterson on the powerplay and on defense. Brad Hunt does not belong in the NHL.

  32. wintoon says:

    Agree 100% with the actions which can be taken today. I would, however, add one additional thought.

    Put a leash on Scrivens so that he cannot, under any circumstances leave the net to handle the puck behind the net. Every time he strays it looks like a Chinese Fire Drill. This is not a good thing.

    The sky is not falling but it certainly is developing some cracks.

  33. Woodguy says:

    Doomoil:
    I don’t understand how the forward deployment can be so good and the defense deployment so inexplicable.

    This is the same org that threw away Hedja (that’s on MacT), Gilbert and now it looks like Petry is on his way out and Marincin is on the farm.

    There may be an organizational dysfunction on how to value Dmen.

    For very insular groups with few outside voices like the Oilers organizational dysfunction can take root pretty quickly.

  34. borisnikov says:

    JUST********WOWIT,

    So is Eakins Richard III and we are currently nearing the end of the middle ages?

    FYI. Thank gord for wiki!

  35. JUST********WOWIT says:

    106 and 106: And who the heck is Brad Hunt?

    ‘Hunt for Red Light October’?

  36. zatch says:

    I’m sorry, but for the last several years the naysayers and debbie downers and Chicken Littles have been correct, and anyone optimistic has been wrong. This is taking the 45th slap to the face in a row and going “well hold on, maybe it was a mistake and he didn’t mean it. Don’t wanna read too much into it”. The bipolar panickers? They are the ones who are right. They’ve been right almost non-stop for a decade. The tiny, incremental progress is as nothing, a drop on the ocean. “The train only hit him going 98 mph, not 100 like we thought! All is well!”. The incompetence in procurement and deployment of defence has left me so stunned. This is not stocking up for winter because surely things will work out just fine.

    It’s so damn bad, I can only assume they’ve broken Hanlon’s shaving implement. The blue deployment especially for me speaks of such stunning, abject stupidity, such basic disregard for reality, that there must be something behind it. Is it Eaking showing his displeasure at lack of C or real top 2 D options? Is it MacT trying to smoke Lowe out? Is Katz secretly a Flames fan? Is Edmonton actually really trying to go for McDavid?

    Something else to consider: We keep hearing about how Petry and Marincin were “A step behind” in camp. Is Eakins putting far far too much stock into fitness test result because of his personal obsession with it? I recall a story where either the US or Canadian national soccer team had coaches who basically tried to get the team into max fitness to compensate for lack of skill. Lots of long runs and brutal practices. It didn’t work at all, because skill covers for fitness far far better than vice versa.

  37. G Money says:

    SoCaloil,

    Petry didn’t have a particularly good game. He had some good plays, but also some bonehead ones, and was directly responsible for at least two GA.

    Fayne was much better than his +- indicates. The +- stat is a poor one to begin with, and really only has much validity after about half a season, but the +- allocations last night were particularly egregious.

  38. Jon K says:

    On a somewhat tangential point, maybe MacT should seriously consider why it is that some organizations consistently succeed in finding and grooming goaltenders (Anaheim, Minnesota), whereas the Oilers have done the exact opposite since forever.

    At some point, it must come down to personnel or process. Both are within his power to resolve.

  39. MenovOil says:

    Only way I can rationalize the ice team on D is that they are tanking for McDavid. Yet if that is the case, why bother signing guys in the summer?

    Fire the whole lot of them I say.

  40. su_dhillon says:

    Woodguy:
    Justin Schultz 24:51
    Nikita Nikitin 20:20
    Andrew Ference 15:53
    Darnell Nurse 15:09
    Jeff Petry 12:05
    Mark Fayne 11:48

    That it right there LT.

    That’s the boogeyman.

    This coach and GM have decided that Jultz is their best option to win and he takes his partner with him up the TOI ladder.

    Here is the On Ice CA/60 (shot attempts against per 60 min) from last year

    PETRY, JEFF19.186
    MARINCIN, MARTIN19.711
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR19.866
    BELOV, ANTON20.428
    LARSEN, PHILIP22.349
    FRASER, MARK22.462
    FERENCE, ANDREW22.661
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN23.009

    They are playing their worst defensive Dman the most.
    Full stop.

    This organization has decided that Justin Shulz is Paul Coffey.

    I don’t think anything really changes until that changes, or Jultz gets better.

    This is really the crux of it, because he is not going to get markedly better in the next 50 games, we know Petry is gone within a couple of months so they are not going to use him as a minutes eater. Basically somebody has to carry Jultz this year or their dead and there is nobody on this roster good enough to do that.

    I also read a series of tweets by Pat today where he thinks the deployment of the D, the sending down of Marincin are probably calls from above and not Eakins decisions and the more I think about it, the more that makes sense. If true then Eakins is probably not going to get a quick hook here either.

    The shame of it is you watch Taylor Hall and man that kid deserves better than this mess. They should have enough on the roster to at least tread water and not be an outright debacle but if this is how you’re going to deploy the D, well it’s McDavid time.

    If they don’t call up Marincin before the Vancouver game, I just don’t know what to think.

  41. gcw_rocks says:

    “the guy (Eakins) has a very good brain and does innovative things. ”

    What evidence is there this is true?

    “Craig MacTavish or Dallas Eakins because they are smart men and know miles more about NHL hockey than I do.”

    What evidence do we have that they are smart men? MacT asked to be judged on his actions, not his words. If we ignore the words, his actions led to drafting third overall last year, hiring a coach that still looks lost and isn’t delivering results, can’t deploy his best assets, is hurting asset value those seems to want to trade (Petry and Marincin), gets so enamoured with certain players that actual results don’t matter, and another team down at the bottom of the standings.

  42. Woodguy says:

    Anyone else having problems with this site being really slow, timing out and not loading?

  43. PhrankLee says:

    Ok, DE seriously said he has guys in the right spot. Fayne may be hurt..? His TOI is way too low. Fayne “in the right spot” is a 5-6 D?! OKC is the “right spot” for MM? I was a little dumbfounded. I share LT’s concern over his getting enough sleep.

  44. SoCaloil says:

    G Money,

    G money,
    I flunked stats in college 🙂
    Or I should say. I took stars twice in college
    Stats should be used as an indicator to dive deeper
    Just wanted some insight
    I wonder if it’s rust, lack of familiarity with his pairing partner, or if he’s just over playing for Eakins

  45. Chris says:

    Petry suffered an injury in camp and Marincin was told to bulk up over the summer. Plus Martin was given Gernat and Keith Aulie to drag around in game action. Telling a player to get bigger and then being down on him for doing so and taking some time to adjust in camp is just abysmally stupid. Especially when he’s one of your best defensemen.

    Katz told us how great it was going to be to have a rich owner. He didn’t tell us he was basically Bill Wirtz.

  46. delooper says:

    Woodguy:
    Anyone else having problems with this site being really slow, timing out and not loading?

    Ja.

  47. elgruntus says:

    From the Proteau article
    “The Oilers’ season isn’t over by a long shot. But you know what is? Oilers fans’ tolerance for the way these shame sessions have become ritualized and normalized since 2006. If Katz, MacTavish and the rest of the team’s braintrust doesn’t realize their customers are questioning their brains and their trust in their brains, there’s a bigger problem to address than the sizeable one representing Edmonton on the ice.

    The time for tinkering has come and gone, with no tangible improvement to show for it. The crossroads has arrived. Safe is death.”

    So, my question is, as fans, what can we do?
    Bitching and complaining online does nothing. Withholding attendance will do nothing. We seem to be able to analyze the shit of this team, but what good does it do? How about some serious thought about what our options are.

    I am sick and tired of being lied to by this team. WHY is Marty in the minors? WHY was Petry scratched? What did Souray do to justify the extreme response? The lack of respect this team gives it’s fans is pathetic.

  48. G Money says:

    JUST********WOWIT: Well last night’s effort reminded me of the 2010 Thrashers – and wouldn’t he be in charge of TOI for the blue?

    Well, that is a big question, and that’s why I want to hear from Ramsay himself.

    As WG pointed out, the D deployment timings are similar this year to last year.

    So either:
    – They brought Ramsay in to improve the D and they don’t listen to him because he’s just not as smart as Eakins/MacT
    – They finally brought in “an old but not an Old Boy” asst coach and instead of saying “do you really want to do that?”, he’s jumped the Oiler shark and also now believes that Justin Schultz is his best D option

  49. commonfan14 says:

    Woodguy: This is the same org that threw away Hedja (that’s on MacT), Gilbert and now it looks like Petry is on his way out and Marincin is on the farm.
    There may be an organizational dysfunction on how to value Dmen.

    Maybe Lowe needs to hire himself as a consultant. Amazing how once upon a time you could have said that his best strength was finding useful D-men and getting the most out of them.

  50. JUST********WOWIT says:

    Woodguy:
    Anyone else having problems with this site being really slow, timing out and not loading?

    Happened to me yesterday for a while, but not so far today. I think we need a new main-frame for the comments server! Is Cray Computing still in business?

  51. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    That TOI for D deployment is 100% reversed.

    100%.

    Smartest guy in the room.

    Organizational dysfunction.

    They bring in guys like Dellow, and then don’t listen to him.

    Like others, I wonder if Ramsay is on board with all this.

  52. Caramel Obvious says:

    I agree on the defense. That said, how can you evaluate the defense when your goaltender has an .800 save percentage?

    And don’t start with shot quality. The goaltending yesterday was atrocious. Not only is it impossible to win with that kind of goaltending, it is impossible to evaluate what happened in front it (Boedker’s goal notwithstanding).

    And don’t start with the breakdown talk. Every team has breakdowns. How do you think the Oilers scored? If Scrivens plays reasonable the Oilers win 4-3, or you get a 3-3 game. If Scrivens plays well, the Oilers win fairly easily.

    And that is without considering the mental baggage of having to always play uphill because you are behind because of your goalie.

    That said, this is some serious deja vu.

    So I agree that we know that this isn’t the real Scrivens. We know this. But the other side of this is true too. The D looks much worse because of the goalie, not the other way around.

    Finally, the day Justin Schultz was signed was the worst day in Oilers’ history. Be careful what you wish for. The Oilers need to Jack Johnson him and fast.

  53. Woodguy says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    I agree on the defense. That said, how can you evaluate the defense when your goaltender has an .800 save percentage?

    I like to use CA/60.

    Its independent from goaltending.

    It doesn’t take into account CF/60 so is more forward independent that overall CF%.

    Still somewhat forward dependent and very Dpartner dependent, but its the best we got.

  54. borisnikov says:

    Caramel Obvious:

    Finally, the day Justin Schultz was signed was the worst day in Oilers’ history.Be careful what you wish for.The Oilers need to Jack Johnson him and fast.

    I don’t think they can Jack Johnson him because he doesn’t have the physical tools that GM’s drool over.

  55. book¡je says:

    Unless there is a turn around on the ice in the next couple of weeks, Edmonton loses another 5 years in the rebuild. 2 weeks for the coaching staff to get fired. 1 to 2 years for Katz to finally lose patience with the management (were some of the key philosophies that are sinking this team seem to lie). 2-3 years for the team to regain enough credibility to attract free agents.

    It’s already the laughing stock of the league. We had the ‘The Oilers are going to be great soon’ moment from analysts and that is now passing into “Seriously, I can barely comprehend how badly these guys screwed this thing up”.

    A turn around at any point could quickly shift attitudes (winning does this), but once the coach is fired and problems remain, its a long haul to getting wins and/or respectability back.

    I think that is what upsets us all the most. It’s not this year, but the years to come (and watching Hall play for Toronto or something).

  56. supernova says:

    <blockquote cite="comment-344143"
    Woodguy,

    SoCaloil:
    I didn’t watch the game but noticed Petry was -3
    And fayne was what -2 bc he got one?
    Any comments in that regard?

    I watched the first 2 periods then had to stop because I was getting to angry a couple minutes into the 3rd.

    Petry looked a step behind on the first 2 goals against. He is either not 100% or his mind is no longer with the team on those 2 plays.

    So either Eakins and MacT are right about him or he decided he is done.

    Either way is a shame.

  57. book¡je says:

    So – Poll question – Is it Mact or Ramsey who steps in to fill the coaching roll*.

    I predict MacT with everyone except Acton retained on the coaching staff.

    What’s the 50/50 on Messier being the associate coach?

    *I know we are not there yet

  58. FPB94 says:

    <> Holy is that ever depressing to read.

    More and and more I’m starting to think this team is cursed.

  59. Woodguy says:

    Well here’s some info to throw us a curve ball:

    Corsi Events Against / 60 5v5 last year:

    Mark.Fraser 66.76
    Justin.Schultz 64.59
    Andrew.Ference 63.17
    Nick.Schultz 62.61
    Philip.Larsen 61.99
    Ladislav.Smid 60.09
    Oscar.Klefbom 58.86
    Jeff.Petry 58.32
    Martin.Marincin 58.15
    Anton.Belov 57.67

    Corsi Events Against / 60 5v5 this year: (warning, small samples sizes abound)
    all numbers courtesy of waronice.com

    Brad.Hunt 41.84
    Mark.Fayne 43.57
    Justin.Schultz 46.51
    Nikita.Nikitin 47.17
    Darnell.Nurse 48.11
    Jeff.Petry 48.25
    Andrew.Ference 55.58

    The Oilers are much, much better at CA/60 than last year.

    Hunt has the best number. Who knew?

    Ference still not good.

    Shultz good?

    Also,

    Oilers PDO is 886.

    Its should get better.

    I can’t believe how exactly like last year this is.

    3 quick wins and everyone will calm down.

    VAN hasn’t played since last Saturday vs Edmonton. Almost a week off.

    They might come out sluggish due to lack of game legs.

    I hope.

  60. Unicorns says:

    Given the Ference and Nikitin signings and the Jultz crush, somebody is really off on assessing D ability and what their primary function is – keep puck out of own net.

    Because the same things happen as the roster changes and improves – terrible defensive zone play and goalie collapses, I would say that’s a pretty good indicator there is a coaching/system problem.

    Not that they are necessarily a play off team, more that competence isn’t too much to expect.

  61. Woodguy says:

    NHL PDO’s if you are interested:

    N.J 113.3
    S.J 113.26
    MIN 110.71
    NYI 107.57
    PIT 107.06
    L.A 105.16
    CHI 104.56
    CGY 102.56
    NSH 102.45
    OTT 102.01
    ANA 101.43
    STL 101.37
    DAL 100.98
    WSH 100.74
    CBJ 100.53
    BUF 100.17
    MTL 99.68
    T.B 98.94
    VAN 98.8
    COL 97.79
    TOR 97.7
    WPG 97.09
    FLA 95.78
    CAR 95.77
    PHI 95.58
    DET 94.7
    NYR 94.54
    BOS 94.11
    EDM 88.65
    ARI 83.42

  62. supernova says:

    Woodguy:
    Justin Schultz 24:51
    Nikita Nikitin 20:20
    Andrew Ference 15:53
    Darnell Nurse 15:09
    Jeff Petry 12:05
    Mark Fayne 11:48

    That it right there LT.

    That’s the boogeyman.

    That’s the piece of lego on the stairs that you step on at 3:00am when you got up to let that damn dog out for another pee.

    When you look at last year’s 5v5 TOI it looks somewhat similar:

    Justin Schultz18:55
    Andrew Ference17:48
    Jeff Petry17:41
    Martin Marincin16:19
    Ladislav Smid15:20
    Oscar Klefbom15:01
    Anton Belov14:52
    Philip Larsen14:39
    Nick Schultz14:29
    Mark Fraser13:32

    This coach and GM have decided that Jultz is their best option to win and he takes his partner with him up the TOI ladder.

    Here is the On Ice CA/20 (shot attempts against per 60 min) from last year

    EDIT: THIS IS CA/20 NOT CA/60

    PETRY, JEFF19.186
    MARINCIN, MARTIN19.711
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR19.866
    BELOV, ANTON20.428
    LARSEN, PHILIP22.349
    FRASER, MARK22.462
    FERENCE, ANDREW22.661
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN23.009

    They are playing their worst defensive Dman the most.

    Full stop.

    This organization has decided that Justin Shulz is Paul Coffey.

    I don’t think anything really changes until that changes, or Jultz gets better.

    I’m not betting against the Oilers signing Jultz long term for a lot of money and I’m not betting on him getting any better either.

    I think I may find a new hobby.

    This one is too frustrating and frustration leads to stress

    I get enough stress running a business, I don’t need it in my leisure time.

    Woodguy,

    I agree with this after most games.

    They have went with Schultz for better or worse.

    blame 1 or 2 players.

    It’s scrivens and Petry last night.

  63. JUST********WOWIT says:

    book¡je: Mact or Ramsey

    Can’t see MacT enduring the stress of coaching – GM is hard enough.

    Ramsay took over for Nielsen in Philly, and guided them to 100+ points and the conf finals (just wiki’d that), and they lost to the NJD who won the cup.

  64. Numenius says:

    Woodguy: Like others, I wonder if Ramsay is on board with all this.

    Isn’t Ramsay exactly the guy who is in charge of the D? Aren’t some of the deployment decisions his fault?

  65. HiddenDarts says:

    Just thought I’d add to the comedy of this thread with this slice of e5:

    Rumors: Edm/Az talking MAJOR Swap, Philly, Habs interest in Tlusty, Methot+

    This would be a pretty big deal, but one of the rumors I was chasing late into the evening last night surrounded a possible deal between Edmonton and Arizon that is rumored to possibly send Yakupov to Phoenix for Zbynek Michalek, a TOP prospect, and a conditional pick (based around re-signing Michalek long term).”

    This is from the “site that shall not be named”, but funny stuff. It would be just like the Oilers to trade their second best forward this year for an aging d-man and some picks.

    Go Oilers management team, go!

  66. Hammers says:

    Well I’m not on board with changes . McT & Eakins have made there decisions right or wrong . They must live with them . The same reason we think send Nurse back & Leon down is why Marincin & Klefbom should stay with Nelson . Face it D.D. was no more the problem than the 2 we have now . Problems arise from those at the top as the G.M gets players , coach decides who plays and how long. Coach puts in his system , right or wrong . KATZ ,NICHOLS & LOWE need to give them this home stand . If we are 2 7 & 2 ( That is possible) changes MUST happen . If they right the ship and are 5 5 & 1 give them another 10 games. So win 5 loose 2 on home ice.

  67. bsmart says:

    I feel really bad for Taylor Hall because he is the only glimmer of any light at the end of the tunnel. At some point he is going to want out if the ship is not righted. If that happens its done son.

    Eakins has proven to be a sub par coach so far. He does not compete with Tippett, Vigneault, Babcock, Sutter, and Quennville.

    We should have went with some experience, rookie coach for rookie players, this was doomed for failure.

  68. FPB94 says:

    For some reason the quote didn’t show, but it’s about Petry and Fayne being a top pairing LOL.

  69. book¡je says:

    Numenius: Isn’t Ramsay exactly the guy who is in charge of the D? Aren’t some of the deployment decisions his fault?

    Depends if Lowe is sending him Texts from above telling him how much he would like to see Schultz out there….

  70. Cameron says:

    Franke Potente!!!! All day. Every day.

  71. RMGS says:

    delooper: That all sounds pretty reasonable. So… bring on some bipolar craziness in the comments!

    Right on cue:

    MenovOil:
    This organization needs a USSR Stalin type purge. Everything in this org is crap. Our drafting is crap, our player development is crap, our coaching is crap, our product on the ice is crap, etc.

    Send Lowe to a Gulag, Julien Brisebois asthe GM and Guy Boucher as the coach. That’s how you turn this frachise, not by recalling some d-man from the AHL.

  72. book¡je says:

    Woodguy:
    Well here’s some info to throw us a curve ball:

    Corsi Events Against / 60 5v5 last year:

    Mark.Fraser66.76
    Justin.Schultz64.59
    Andrew.Ference63.17
    Nick.Schultz62.61
    Philip.Larsen61.99
    Ladislav.Smid60.09
    Oscar.Klefbom58.86
    Jeff.Petry58.32
    Martin.Marincin58.15
    Anton.Belov57.67

    Corsi Events Against / 60 5v5 this year: (warning, small samples sizes abound)
    all numbers courtesy of waronice.com

    Brad.Hunt41.84
    Mark.Fayne43.57
    Justin.Schultz46.51
    Nikita.Nikitin47.17
    Darnell.Nurse48.11
    Jeff.Petry48.25
    Andrew.Ference55.58

    The Oilers are much, much better at CA/60 than last year.

    Hunt has the best number. Who knew?

    Ference still not good.

    Shultz good?

    Also,

    Oilers PDO is 886.

    Its should get better.

    I can’t believe how exactly like last year this is.

    3 quick wins and everyone will calm down.

    VAN hasn’t played since last Saturday vs Edmonton.Almost a week off.

    They might come out sluggish due to lack of game legs.

    I hope.

    You know, you are absolutely right, we really need to calm down and take a measured approach to the situation.

    I can’t do it – Agggggggggggggh

  73. FPB94 says:

    RMGS: Right on cue:

    I always wondered how come everybody ever involved in this mess either kept their job, or got re-hired.

  74. denny33 says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    And don’t start with the breakdown talk. Every team has breakdowns. How do you think the Oilers scored? If Scrivens plays reasonable the Oilers win 4-3, or you get a 3-3 game. If Scrivens plays well, the Oilers win fairly easily.
    ********************************************************************************
    Wow…..you have to be kidding.

    Schultz, Ference and a Blue Jacket cast off….no breakdowns here.

    We have only played 1 playoff team so far….unless you think that trio above will shine against the
    really good teams of the NHL.

  75. bendelson says:

    book¡je:
    So – Poll question – Is it Mact or Ramsey who steps in to fill the coaching roll*.

    I predict MacT with everyone except Acton retained on the coaching staff.

    What’s the 50/50 on Messier being the associate coach?

    *I know we are not there yet

    I’m going to go off the board and suggest Todd Nelson takes over.
    Regardless on who it is… I think it happens shortly and isn’t a terrible idea.

  76. Ben says:

    I have no problem with Ference as the 6-7D on this team.

    Problem is, him holding the C prohibits rotating him out with – say – Marincin coming in.

    It just seems ridiculous that this sort of ‘political’ thing prohibits sane roster decisions.

    I don’t think it really matters that much who wears the C, but maybe this would be an opportune time to hand the reins to Hall – for both symbolic and practical reasons.

  77. spoiler says:

    LT…

    According to nhl.com, which still does publish EV TOI on a per game basis, your calculations for last game are correct, except for Justin Schultz, which you have off by exactly one minute (typo?).

    23:51 not 24:51.

    The numbers for last night’s game can be found here.

  78. MenovOil says:

    book¡je says:
    October 16, 2014 at 9:29 am
    Unless there is a turn around on the ice in the next couple of weeks, Edmonton loses another 5 years in the rebuild.

    That’s a bit extreme. Bergevin turned the Hab’s fortunes in a year. How they did it? Hired a competent coach and completly gutted out the organization from top to bottom and brought in his guys.

    We have talent here, it’s not perfect but there is a base to work with. Now we need competence throughout the organization to finally move forward from the 100 year spiral of doom.

  79. linkfromhyrule says:

    Those CA/60 #’s WG posted are shocking (thanks for that, btw), and reason for us to put away the torches and pitchforks for at least another 5 games imo. WTF is with Scrivens this year?

    I honestly thought goaltending was the only question mark we didn’t have this year!!

    Gawd I hope they don’t make a knee jerk trade. I can smell it coming though. Might just be the smell of burning tires and garbage though. Man it stinks

  80. G Money says:

    Caramel Obvious,
    Woodguy,

    I think there are ways to analyze it, it’s just labour intensive.

    As a start, I like ‘home plate analysis’. If a goal is scored from within home plate (the area made by angled lines drawn from the side of the net to the middle of the circle, then straight up to the top of the circle, then connected, forming a rough home plate shape), then there is a strong argument that there was likely a defensive breakdown. Yes, it can still be a weak goal, but the defense is at least complicit.

    Conversely, a goal outside of home plate is usually on the goaltender. Yes, it can still be a good goal (e.g. a screened bomb from the point), but more often, it’s on the goalie.

    This is last night’s Ice Tracker for Arz goal’s, with home plate drawn on:
    http://i.imgur.com/spXWICK.png

    Every single Arz goal is inside home plate. Most are from inside the slot.

    Yes, some were arguably weak goals.

    But last night, IMO, the defense wears this one the most.

  81. denny33 says:

    book¡je,

    So – Poll question – Is it Mact or Ramsey who steps in to fill the coaching roll*.
    I predict MacT with everyone except Acton retained on the coaching staff.
    What’s the 50/50 on Messier being the associate coach?
    *I know we are not there yet

    *************************************************
    Ramsey

  82. elgruntus says:

    Hey LT, this might be a fitting title/song for the next update

    Golden Blunders by The Posies

    the money quote…”disappointment breeds contempt”

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jdAl_CSjjY0

  83. FPB94 says:

    BTW: When was the last time a team with no 20 HR hitter went to the world series?

  84. book¡je says:

    MenovOil:
    book¡je says:
    October 16, 2014 at 9:29 am
    Unless there is a turn around on the ice in the next couple of weeks, Edmonton loses another 5 years in the rebuild.

    That’s a bit extreme. Bergevin turned the Hab’s fortunes in a year. How they did it? Hired a competent coach and completly gutted out the organization from top to bottom and brought in his guys.

    We have talent here, it’s not perfect but there is a base to work with. Now we need competence throughout the organization to finally move forward from the 100 year spiral of doom.

    Ok, I agree, if that process took place tomorrow. I think that process is 1 to 2 years away. So, we would be looking at 2-3 years.

  85. denny33 says:

    G Money,

    I think there are ways to analyze it, it’s just labour intensive.
    As a start, I like ‘home plate analysis’. If a goal is scored from within home plate (the area made by angled lines drawn from the side of the net to the middle of the circle, then straight up to the top of the circle, then connected, forming a rough home plate shape), then there is a strong argument that there was likely a defensive breakdown. Yes, it can still be a weak goal, but the defense is at least complicit.
    Conversely, a goal outside of home plate is usually on the goaltender. Yes, it can still be a good goal (e.g. a screened bomb from the point), but more often, it’s on the goalie.
    This is last night’s Ice Tracker for Arz goal’s, with home plate drawn on:
    http://i.imgur.com/spXWICK.png
    Every single Arz goal is inside home plate. Most are from inside the slot.
    Yes, some were arguably weak goals.
    But last night, IMO, the defense wears this one the most.
    **********************************************************************************
    Thank God you joined this group.

    To steal from someone last night ( Gre8ztky ? ) …

    At least nobody is praising Dallas and his ability to give a great presser.

  86. prairieschooner says:

    No need to panic guys
    It is only 4 games

  87. spoiler says:

    G Money: As a start, I like ‘home plate analysis’. If a goal is scored from within home plate (the area made by angled lines drawn from the side of the net to the middle of the circle, then straight up to the top of the circle, then connected, forming a rough home plate shape), then there is a strong argument that there was likely a defensive breakdown. Yes, it can still be a weak goal, but the defense is at least complicit.
    Conversely, a goal outside of home plate is usually on the goaltender. Yes, it can still be a good goal (e.g. a screened bomb from the point), but more often, it’s on the goalie.

    I don’t think it is anywhere near as clean cut as the above. Bad rebounds by the goalie, and giveaways by the goalie result in goals from the home plate area.

    Also, I’m not sure if by “defense” you mean defensemen, but the Centre plays a big role in defending the slot.

  88. icecastles says:

    MenovOil: This organization needs a USSR Stalin type purge

    Our longest serving Oilers are Hall and Eberle.
    Our coach was hired barely over a year ago.
    The assistant coaches are brand new.
    Our head scout is only a few years into the job.

    How many more ‘purges’ do you want? The defining aspect of Stalin’s purges were that being innocent or guilty had nothing to do with whether you got sent to the gulag. If they wanted to purge, they’d find someone to punish. And they nearly got wiped off the map early in WWII before they rallied and rebuilt their army, because they’d put most of the soldiers into labour camps. Then after the war, they showed their inability to learn from the past and did it again anyway.

    This doesn’t sound like a recipe for success. It was important to get rid of a lot of dead weight from the team, both players and management, and they’ve done that. But a point comes when you need some stability and consistency and guys who can build a comfort level, a familiarity and a rapport with one another.

  89. Marcus Oilerius says:

    This has been the “perfect storm” two seasons running. Perfect storms are conjunctions, planetary alignments. They happen rarely and last only a brief time. They don’t last two fucking seasons in a row.

    Krueger had no training camp, a worse roster (except for 2C), and a lockout season and he managed more than Eakins with two camps and an entire season. Enough excuses. Enough “game of inches”. Enough “puck luck”. Enough “perfect storm”. The man’s system is a high-chance disaster. It doesn’t matter what the corgis and fenwicks say when you spot the opposing team breakaways and open chances from the slot game after game after game.

  90. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy:

    3 quick wins and everyone will calm down.

    Justifying the Eakins/MacTavish bonehead decisions early and delaying the wake-up call?

    No thanks.

    The season almost needed to start this way given TC and the roster decisions. Hopefully Eakins learns his lesson – but he’s shown very little capacity for that so far.

  91. icecastles says:

    denny33: We have only played 1 playoff team so far….unless you think that trio above will shine against the
    really good teams of the NHL.

    Vancouver – Missed the playoffs last year for the first time in ages and are considered a reasonable bet to be back in this year.
    LA – won the Stanley Cup.
    Phoenix – missed the playoffs last year by 2 points, for the first time in 3 years and are ridiculously well-coached.

    Saying we’ve only played one playoff team is technically true, but also a bit misleading.

  92. vinotintazo says:

    How many times is Scrivens gonna play the puck behind the net and turn it over.. man…?

    He needs to be better, and we need people covering the slot better, I saw opposite players wandering in front of the net ALONE at least 6 times yesterday.

  93. PunjabiOil says:

    I think it’s fair to question MacT, and as mentioned, judge him by his actions and not his astute sounding interviews and press conferences.

    He has failed. Eakins has failed.

    Ultimately, we want the best for the Edmonton Oilers, and it’s fair to suggest there are better options out there than these two.

  94. rich says:

    icecastles,

    True, but quoting Stalin in a hockey blog makes for better entertainment than watching the Oiler’s defense.

    If you’d rather, we could try Russian Roulette instead.

  95. barry.moore23 says:

    My wife thinks I have a dysfunctional relationship with the Oilers.

    *** gets Jack Nicholson insane look on his face, drools, logs off of Lowetide and goes back to work …

  96. Caramel Obvious says:

    G Money:
    Caramel Obvious,
    Woodguy,

    I think there are ways to analyze it, it’s just labour intensive.

    As a start, I like ‘home plate analysis’.If a goal is scored from within home plate (the area made by angled lines drawn from the side of the net to the middle of the circle, then straight up to the top of the circle, then connected, forming a rough home plate shape), then there is a strong argument that there was likely a defensive breakdown.Yes, it can still be a weak goal, but the defense is at least complicit.

    Conversely, a goal outside of home plate is usually on the goaltender.Yes, it can still be a good goal (e.g. a screened bomb from the point), but more often, it’s on the goalie.

    This is last night’s Ice Tracker for Arz goal’s, with home plate drawn on:
    http://i.imgur.com/spXWICK.png

    Every single Arz goal is inside home plate.Most are from inside the slot.

    Yes, some were arguably weak goals.

    But last night, IMO, the defense wears this one the most.

    That works over the long haul, however last night from memory there is the Scrivens walk about goal. That was within home plate but you can’t blame the defense.

    There was the beer league backhand goal. That was within homeplate but you can’t blame the defense.

    Was the Connor Murphy goal withing homeplate? That was terrible.

    There is homeplate and then homeplate. I wouldn’t say it was stellar but it didn’t look to me like the Coyotes were getting great chances (other than Boedker), they simply scored on every single one, plus a few others that weren’t even chances.
    Woodguy,

    I agree, on how to evaluate the D independent of goalies. My point is that the clusterfuck we are watching right now looks much worse than it is because of the goaltending. When the goalie plays this bad you can’t trust your eyes.

    So I’m willing to entertain the idea that some of this is on the D. However, I need strong evidence, and until I get it this is all about save percentage (or lack thereof).

  97. CrazyCoach says:

    “the guy (Eakins) has a very good brain and does innovative things. ”

    I would like to see one innovative thing Eakins has done with this team.

    One.

    Roger Neilson, he is not.

  98. Bling says:

    Woodguy:
    Justin Schultz 24:51
    Nikita Nikitin 20:20
    Andrew Ference 15:53
    Darnell Nurse 15:09
    Jeff Petry 12:05
    Mark Fayne 11:48

    That it right there LT.

    That’s the boogeyman.

    That’s the piece of lego on the stairs that you step on at 3:00am when you got up to let that damn dog out for another pee.

    When you look at last year’s 5v5 TOI it looks somewhat similar:

    Justin Schultz18:55
    Andrew Ference17:48
    Jeff Petry17:41
    Martin Marincin16:19
    Ladislav Smid15:20
    Oscar Klefbom15:01
    Anton Belov14:52
    Philip Larsen14:39
    Nick Schultz14:29
    Mark Fraser13:32

    This coach and GM have decided that Jultz is their best option to win and he takes his partner with him up the TOI ladder.

    Here is the On Ice CA/20 (shot attempts against per 60 min) from last year

    EDIT: THIS IS CA/20 NOT CA/60

    PETRY, JEFF19.186
    MARINCIN, MARTIN19.711
    KLEFBOM, OSCAR19.866
    BELOV, ANTON20.428
    LARSEN, PHILIP22.349
    FRASER, MARK22.462
    FERENCE, ANDREW22.661
    SCHULTZ, JUSTIN23.009

    They are playing their worst defensive Dman the most.

    Full stop.

    This organization has decided that Justin Shulz is Paul Coffey.

    I don’t think anything really changes until that changes, or Jultz gets better.

    I’m not betting against the Oilers signing Jultz long term for a lot of money and I’m not betting on him getting any better either.

    I think I may find a new hobby.

    This one is too frustrating and frustration leads to stress

    I get enough stress running a business, I don’t need it in my leisure time.

    Schultz is so bad that he’s dragging his partner down with him.

    The number of times this guy is caught out of position is astounding. His inability to make an outlet pass is baffling. He is not that good, full stop.

    And the numbers confirm what the eyes are seeing.

    The Eakins/MacT Schultz experiment is a failure. I don’t want the TOI reversed, I want Schultz benched and eventually traded.

  99. JUST********WOWIT says:

    prairieschooner: No need to panic guys

    I would say that it’s more like ‘grave concern’ than panic, and more than a little deja vu…

    The team improved during the season last year. Bits were added and some coaches changed, and the first four games result in 22 GA. That’s deja vu all over again!

  100. Caramel Obvious says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    This has been the “perfect storm” two seasons running.Perfect storms are conjunctions, planetary alignments.They happen rarely and last only a brief time.They don’t last two fucking seasons in a row.

    Krueger had no training camp, a worse roster (except for 2C), and a lockout season and he managed more than Eakins with two camps and an entire season.Enough excuses.Enough “game of inches”.Enough “puck luck”.Enough “perfect storm”.The man’s system is a high-chance disaster.It doesn’t matter what the corgis and fenwicks say when you spot the opposing team breakaways and open chances from the slot game after game after game.

    Do you even watch the games?

  101. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    Yes.

    It’s why I can point to breakaways, open men in the slot, and bad pinches.

  102. PunjabiOil says:

    I have no problem with Ference as the 6-7D on this team.

    I do.

    Everyone and their mother knew it was a bad deal, and too much money for a depth defenceman.

    Tom Gilbert is making less than Ference.

    Ference. Far too much money for a guy that doesn’t drive the bus.

    NN was another bizaare move.

    Paying someone top 4 money doesn’t make them so.

  103. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    That’s correct. It’s not clean cut, it never is.

    Clean cut or not, It’s whether or not it helps you to understand, clarify, de-obfuscate, and de-subjectify what happened. This is the value of analysis (statistical or otherwise).

    And I think home plate analysis is *very* instructive in that regard, even as it has exceptions. I did not think any of the goals last night were bad rebounds, but at least one was a goalie giveaway. But even that could have been prevented with better defensive coverage.

    I watch games and then I try to use some measure of analysis to help me form a more objective opinion of what happened.

    Most games, in addition to Corsi (EV and Close), special teams results, and home plate analysis, I also watch every goal against on the NHL site the next day. It helps me be objective, and I believe it is why I’m often more optimistic about the team after a loss and more pessimistic after a win than many folks here.

    By the way, there is an interesting side note to the defensive coverage this year. Despite the fact that most of the goals against are from breakdowns in the slot (just like last year), the *way* in which those breakdowns are occurring is quite different. Last year, it was all about ‘wide open looks’. A completely uncovered player free to hammer a goal home on a defenseless goalie.

    This year, except on the goalie giveways (4 of them) and one bizarre ‘swarming’ sequence where all four Oilers chased a single player with the puck into the corner, there haven’t been many wide open looks. There have been two, three, even four Oilers in the slot. They’ve just done a piss poor job of taking the puck and the shot away.

    This is a huge change from last year. It’s working no better (so far), but it’s a huge change for the better.

    I suggest going back and looking at the first three LA Kings goals in particular if you want to see what I mean.

    And you are correct to point out one nuance – it is about the defensive coverage, which is five guys, and not just the two defensemen.

    That said, IMO, the defensive coverage last night was atrocious, and the defensemen were the biggest culprits.

  104. FPB94 says:

    PunjabiOil:
    I have no problem with Ference as the 6-7D on this team.

    I do.

    Everyone and their mother knew it was a bad deal, and too much money for a depth defenceman.

    Tom Gilbert is making less than Ference.

    Ference.Far too much money for a guy that doesn’t drive the bus.

    NN was another bizaare move.

    Paying someone top 4 money doesn’t make them so.

    But hey, at least he sure is truculent. The Habs somehow enjoying Gilbert cheaper than Ference is the apitomy of whats wrong with the Oilers. Psych.

  105. Caramel Obvious says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Caramel Obvious,

    Yes.

    It’s why I can point to breakaways, open men in the slot, and bad pinches.

    And yet you’ve done none of the above.

    Moreover, pointing things out is meaningless without context. Those things happen to all teams. So you need to do two additional things.

    1) Demonstrate that it happens to the Oilers more than other teams.

    And.

    2) Attribute a cause supported by both reasons and evidence.

    That’s your homework assignment.

    I mean the Oilers scored on a 3-1 last night. What does that tell us about the Coyotes? Answer: nothing.

    Taylor Hall was left alone in the slot. What does that tell us about the Coyotes? Answer: nothing.

  106. Caramel Obvious says:

    G Money,

    I mostly agree. However, last year when everyone was saying the same things, Parkatti was measuring shot distance which is a proxy for what you are talking about. And it turned out that the Oilers were better if you took shot distance into account, not worse.

  107. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    Well here’s some info to throw us a curve ball:

    Corsi Events Against / 60 5v5 last year:

    Mark.Fraser66.76
    Justin.Schultz64.59
    Andrew.Ference63.17
    Nick.Schultz62.61
    Philip.Larsen61.99
    Ladislav.Smid60.09
    Oscar.Klefbom58.86
    Jeff.Petry58.32
    Martin.Marincin58.15
    Anton.Belov57.67

    Corsi Events Against / 60 5v5 this year: (warning, small samples sizes abound)
    all numbers courtesy of waronice.com

    Brad.Hunt41.84
    Mark.Fayne43.57
    Justin.Schultz46.51
    Nikita.Nikitin47.17
    Darnell.Nurse48.11
    Jeff.Petry48.25
    Andrew.Ference55.58

    The Oilers are much, much better at CA/60 than last year.

    Hunt has the best number. Who knew?

    Ference still not good.

    Shultz good?

    Also,

    Oilers PDO is 886.

    Its should get better.

    I can’t believe how exactly like last year this is.

    3 quick wins and everyone will calm down.

    VAN hasn’t played since last Saturday vs Edmonton.Almost a week off.

    They might come out sluggish due to lack of game legs.

    I hope.

    So last night we sat our best defenseman, and no one here is whinging madly about it?

    How bizarre.

  108. icecastles says:

    rich: True, but quoting Stalin in a hockey blog makes for better entertainment than watching the Oiler’s defense.

    Oilers need to quit Stalin and bring up Marincin.

  109. commonfan14 says:

    CrazyCoach: I would like to see one innovative thing Eakins has done with this team.
    One.

    Pfft…. You’re totally forgetting about the doughnuts.

  110. spoiler says:

    G Money: This is a huge change from last year. It’s working no better (so far), but it’s a huge change for the better.

    Actually, it is working better. If the trend continues, from WG’s numbers, Corsi has improved.

    What hasn’t improved is the PDO.

    Or 2nd line C, a player who has a big impact on stopping scoring from the slot.

  111. Bling says:

    How in the world is Justin Schultz escaping the vitriol of the mainstream media in EDM, i.e. the same motley crew of individuals who chewed up and swallowed whole the likes of Tom Poti, Roman Hamrlik, Tom Gilbert, and now Jeff Petry?

    Am I on crazy pills, here?

    We finally have a guy that should be railroaded the hell out of town, and they’re coddling him?

  112. MenovOil says:

    icecastles, Consistency is not a reason to tolerate incompetence. It’s painfully obvious that Eakins can’t coach at this level. There is not a single aspect of this team that has improved since he’s been here. Not a single player has gotten better either. Of course Mac T will sing ‘The consistency’ note, he hired the doofus to begin with.

    Now the way Mac T was hired leaves me with zero confidence that the men in charge have what it takes to truly make this team better. I could honestly see Kelly Buchberger taking over for Eakins at the end of the year without them even bothering to inverview Babcock.

    Just imagine if we had the Dallas combo of Nill/Ruff. Does anyone honestly believe we would be seeing the shit-show we have under our nose right now?

  113. spoiler says:

    This year’s start is eerily similar to the start of last year… poor PDO and lots of slot scoring.

    What else is eerily similar to the start of last year?

    Lack of Centre depth.

  114. LMHF#1 says:

    Eakins is a prescriptive-model coach rather than a performance-model coach. Most people don’t transition between the two once their personalities are set.

    This is a big problem.

  115. G Money says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    That’s true. Even last night, the Oilers had 21 shots at an average distance of 31.4 ft, while the Coyotes were 22 shots and 35.6 ft. Mike Smith was a better goalie than Scivens last night. I am not an apologist for our goalies, I think Scrivens owns the Flames loss.

    Your recollection of Parkatti’s work is different than mine. Most nights it seemed to confirm the Corsi results – when the Oilers got out-possessed, they also lost on the distance-adjusted shot metrics, and vice versa.

    Then again, I’m sure there were glaring exceptions, especially early in the season when the Oilers were often the better team overall and lost in equal measure because of soft goals and soft defensive breakdowns.

  116. jbfuzz says:

    The disconnect between the typical Eakins verbals and the player-personnel decisions and deployment is pretty amazing. This indicates he’s totally incompetent or getting some ‘help’ from up-on-high. I have no idea which, but this season is a shitshow already and we’re not even at Halloween.

  117. AZOIL says:

    Went to the game last night and I’m not as astute as all of you in picking up things but the few items I did notice are as follows:

    Nurse is good, not perfect but good. He motors and skates well and I can tell he loves being out there. In warm ups some guys were just going through the motions and some were truly enjoying themselves, he loves the game.

    Drysaddle looks a little lost out there at times and has a slow heavy looking first step but you can tell he is good and needs time.

    Arcobello competes on every shift, love the guy.

    Petry looked angry at the world and really didn’t talk much to anyone during warmups, I would be pissed too.

    Hall is magical to watch.

    Last but not least Justin Schultz, did any of you see ho he kept trying to hot dog it and bring the puck all the way out and up the ice on his own? He did this maybe 3-4 times and 2-3 of those he was picked off for a breakaway. Pass the damn puck, man alive they ate him up on those and it could have kept us in the game.

    I am with a few on here, even if he is the next Paul Coffey, who cares. We have enough offense with the forwards and we don’t need that kind of liability with an already young D and questionable goal tending. I say start quietly shopping him to see what you can get.

    Would the Sharks take him and something for Jumbo Joe? I think the Oilers like him cause he chose to be here but the guy causes way too many liabilities out there. They are using him all wrong and giving him way too much leash.

  118. RBB says:

    Lowetide,

    Could you please further explain what you mean by “6. Send Leon out.”?

    send him out on the ice for the rest of the year?
    send him out for a goalie or top pairing defenceman?
    send him out, so he can develop slowly in the WHL?

    I ask because it seems to me that the knee jerk reaction from media commentators who suggest trading one of the young guns is a terrible way to manage Oilers assets (we can’t afford to ice a team without hall/nuge, but perhaps you feel that the youngest asset should be sent out, rather than a 24 yr old Eberle, as an example.

    Kind regards,
    Results Based Budgeting (RBB)

  119. G Money says:

    spoiler: Actually, it is working better. If the trend continues, from WG’s numbers, Corsi has improved.

    We’re violently agreeing. What I mean by ‘huge improvement’ is exactly what the Corsi is showing. What I mean by not working better is purely in terms of results.

  120. PunjabiOil says:

    Just imagine if we had the Dallas combo of Nill/Ruff. Does anyone honestly believe we would be seeing the shit-show we have under our nose right now?

    It’s the Oilers way. Forget about doing proper due diligence, fielding interviews from candidates external to the organization. Nope.

    This is the same organization that offered Mark Messier (zero coaching experience) the head coach position before Ralph Kreuger was hired.

    Nothing changes here, and it’s time to vote with the wallet.

  121. G Money says:

    LMHF#1,

    I have a concern with saying “Eakins is this or that”. I haven’t seen any evidence from anyone that backs up the conjecture.

    And much of the conjecture is at odds with the forward deployment so far this year, which has been near perfect. If that’s a result of “prescriptive-model” coaching, then it’s a good thing, not a bad thing.

    All I can look at is what is relatively concrete: the defense has been bad, the defensemen have been the worst culprits, and the worst culprits among the defensemen are playing the most.

    This is the root of most of the current “Oilers WTF?”.

  122. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    You’re basically yelling me to shut up until I watch 2000 games from last season and mark down all the chances etc? No, that’s an unreasonable standard, especially when we are dealing with an observable phenomenon that almost everyone has been commenting on since the first game of the season.

  123. book¡je says:

    icecastles: Our longest serving Oilers are Hall and Eberle.
    Our coach was hired barely over a year ago.
    The assistant coaches are brand new.
    Our head scout is only a few years into the job.

    How many more ‘purges’ do you want? The defining aspect of Stalin’s purges were that being innocent or guilty had nothing to do with whether you got sent to the gulag. If they wanted to purge, they’d find someone to punish. And they nearly got wiped off the map early in WWII before they rallied and rebuilt their army, because they’d put most of the soldiers into labour camps. Then after the war, they showed their inability to learn from the past and did it again anyway.

    This doesn’t sound like a recipe for success. It was important to get rid of a lot of dead weight from the team, both players and management, and they’ve done that. But a point comes when you need some stability and consistency and guys who can build a comfort level, a familiarity and a rapport with one another.

    Well, sometimes the problem is the guy up top. I have tended to argue that Lowe doesn’t influence the team much, but there have been some consistent themes that have run through this organization for a decade+. There seems to be something against players who don’t fit a narrow definition of ‘dedicated’. There also has been some suggestions (Quinn was loudest) that there is a lot of tinkering from above. I don’t really know what’s true and what isn’t. However, there is only so long that you can allow things to go sour. I wouldn’t make the change now probably, but if things don’t look better in a year’s time, you have to make a change that involves Lowe going.

  124. Ben says:

    MacT better have a backup plan for C help.

    If they talk themselves into keeping LD because it serves the roster, rather than his development, that’s completely indefensible.

    The fact that they wouldn’t pony up for a year of Legward/Robidas/Jokinen/Roy is just galling, at this point.

    The idea that MacT is sitting there, anxiously waiting for Nurse to make Petry “expendable”, is just absurd.

  125. book¡je says:

    G Money:
    LMHF#1,

    I have a concern with saying “Eakins is this or that”.I haven’t seen any evidence from anyone that backs up the conjecture.

    And much of the conjecture is at odds with the forward deployment so far this year, which has been near perfect.If that’s a result of “prescriptive-model” coaching, then it’s a good thing, not a bad thing.

    All I can look at is what is relatively concrete: the defense has been bad, the defensemen have been the worst culprits, and the worst culprits among the defensemen are playing the most.

    This is the root of most of the current “Oilers WTF?”.

    I agree and I am having a hard time figuring out who is pushing what. I don’t know at what level the push for Schultz comes from. It should be the coach but the coach may be responding to feedback from MacT or others.

  126. G Money says:

    Marcus Oilerius,

    Whatever Caramel is telling you to do, the issue I have with your analysis is that everything you attribute to Eakins last year (“breakaways, open men in the slot, and bad pinches”) is 100% applicable to Krueger the year before.

    You don’t need to review 2000 games, just go back to the game threads that season and you’ll quickly realize that any warm fuzzies you have over Krueger’s coaching is 100% driven by contempt for Eakins and not reality.

    Eakins may be a terrible coach, but so was Krueger.

  127. fifthcartel says:

    http://www.mlive.com/redwings/index.ssf/2014/10/ask_ansar_on_the_red_wings_pur.html

    “Q: Would the Wings be interested in Jeff Petry? It seems the Oilers are trying to get rid of him and maybe we can get him on the cheap. – Bluejayfan

    A: The Red Wings had interest in Petry last summer but balked at Edmonton’s request for Darren Helm.

    The Oilers are seeking a center in return. I don’t think the Red Wings have a center they’d be willing to part with that would interest Edmonton.

    Petry wouldn’t cost nearly as much as Myers. Petry isn’t as good as Myers, doesn’t have as much offensive upside and will be an unrestricted free agent in July. His cap hit is $3.075 million.

    If the Red Wings were to acquire Petry — a 6-3, 200-pound right-handed shooter — I think it would be closer to the trade deadline as a rental, after most other options are exhauste”

  128. AZOIL says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Just imagine if we had the Dallas combo of Nill/Ruff. Does anyone honestly believe we would be seeing the shit-show we have under our nose right now?

    It’s the Oilers way.Forget about doing proper due diligence, fielding interviews from candidates external to the organization.Nope.

    This is the same organization that offered Mark Messier (zero coaching experience) the head coach position before Ralph Kreuger was hired.

    Nothing changes here, and it’s time to vote with the wallet.

    Nill would have had the balls to make a trade of one of the young guns to bring in something equal or better. Maybe Seguin would be an oiler alongside hall on our top line. What would that have taken? Likely Eberle and more.

  129. LMHF#1 says:

    G Money:
    LMHF#1,

    I have a concern with saying “Eakins is this or that”.I haven’t seen any evidence from anyone that backs up the conjecture.

    And much of the conjecture is at odds with the forward deployment so far this year, which has been near perfect.If that’s a result of “prescriptive-model” coaching, then it’s a good thing, not a bad thing.

    All I can look at is what is relatively concrete: the defense has been bad, the defensemen have been the worst culprits, and the worst culprits among the defensemen are playing the most.

    This is the root of most of the current “Oilers WTF?”.

    Of course it is conjecture. Can you ever have more than that when assessing someone’s personality? You’re not inside that head.

    The forwards are fine enough, but I can’t see anything different in the decision-making that doesn’t directly reflect the people that were added to the forward group and Eakins’ comfort with them. And he kept Will Acton and has already played him. Again.

    The benching of Petry was a perfect example of Eakins’ prescriptive nature. “I can’t bench my captain, can’t keep sitting the rookie, need my 2nd powerplay defenceman but can’t dress 7 D, the other two are a pair…well, #2 it is!”. What a terrible method. Even worse, he could just be strutting around yelling FITNESS!!! and making decisions based on that. He should take a few workouts off, get out the popcorn and donuts and watch some video of Scotty Bowman’s teams.

    Imagine if the forwards weren’t playing pretty well…

  130. gmac2412 says:

    While I will never admit to fully understanding all these fancy stats, the only statistic that really counts at the end of the day is wins and losses. You can argue stats all day, but we are all witnessing this clusterfuck with our own eyes. The “seen him good” argument should beat any stats when it is as obvious to the eyes as this!!

    It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to work out that if you are shipping on average 5.5 goals a game on your back end (admittedly in a small sample size of 4 games), that you aren’t going to do very well as a hockey team!!

    I’ll accept that below par goaltending is a major contributor to this at the moment, but having watched all the games so far, my eyes are telling me an obvious thing….that this defence is drastically flawed.

    Call up Marincin ASAP, go and find a serviceable centre via trade without trading away something you will regret too much and hope that goal tending returns to the norm in short order and this season may not be a completely lost cause.

    I am seeing progress with the forward play, puck possession and creation of quality scoring chances, but it is being pissed away by this shit show of a defence!!

    Mistakes are forgivable, but only if you have the courage to admit them. I somehow sense that MacT and Eakins are too stubborn and too sure of their own intelligence to take that into consideration.

  131. FPB94 says:

    I’ve simply ceased to acknowledge Will Acton’s existence. It feels much better.

  132. G Money says:

    LMHF#1: Of course it is conjecture. Can you ever have more than that when assessing someone’s personality? You’re not inside that head.

    You stated: “Eakins is a prescriptive-model coach rather than a performance-model coach. Most people don’t transition between the two once their personalities are set.
    This is a big problem.”

    The reason I took issue with your statements is they are NOT stated as conjecture, you’ve stated them as if they’re fact. If you agree that they are in fact conjecture, that you’re not inside that head, it might have read something like this:

    It seems to me that Eakins is a prescriptive-model coach rather than a performance-model coach. I say that because of the benching of Petry seems to be a perfect example of a prescriptive nature. “I can’t bench my captain, can’t keep sitting the rookie, need my 2nd powerplay defenceman but can’t dress 7 D, the other two are a pair…well, #2 it is!”. What a terrible method if that’s how it went down.

    If that’s the case, most people don’t transition between the two once their personalities are set.

    This is a big problem.

    You can tell me and my criticism to go take a flying f**k because you have the right to say whatever you want. Sure you do. But if you state conjecture as if it’s fact, someone somewhere is going to point it out…

  133. Bag of Pucks says:

    Coach? GM? Players?

    If we’re looking to determine who owns primary culpability for this debacle, I think one solid approach is to pose some of those very simple questions that Dellow liked to ask.

    For me, that question is ‘why can’t this team defend the slot’ and why has this been a systemic thing for so long?

    I’ve been reluctant to admit it for the longest time cos we’ve been down this ‘fire the coach’ road so many times, but put me in the camp now that thinks this is Eakins.

    Even post swarm, all his verbal is about aggressive puck pursuit, battle level, gap control, fitness, etc. These buzzwords are all well and good, but what I’m seeing is a D Corps that lacks the ability to win board battles and would be far better served playing a more passive, positional game that places a greater emphasis on lane obstruction, blocked shots, stick placement and rebound control.

    The Oilers Dcorps as currently comprised is either young and hesitant, or old and slow, but the result is inevitably the same. They’re a day late and a dollar short in puck pursuit and the Fs have yet to meet a back check they can’t ignore.

    Ironic isn’t it? Gretz spent years in his office behind the net drawing overeager D in then making them look stupid, and now the entire league is returning the favour.

    Trying to remain optimistic, I think Ramsay ‘s smart enough to fix this, but doing so might require a fundamental change in philosophy away from press coverage and I’m not sure Eakins or MacT see that as an option.

    Good coaches tailor systems to their players not vice versa. More and more, it seems Eakins doesn’t understand this.

    We have officially entered Kurtz’s compound. Dark days indeed.

    Kurtz: Did they say why, Willard, why they want to terminate my command?
    Willard: I was sent on a classified mission, sir.
    Kurtz: It’s no longer classified, is it? Did they tell you?
    Willard: They told me that you had gone totally insane, and that your methods were unsound.
    Kurtz: Are my methods unsound?
    Willard: I don’t see any method at all, sir.

  134. Caramel Obvious says:

    Marcus Oilerius:
    Caramel Obvious,

    You’re basically yelling me to shut up until I watch 2000 games from last season and mark down all the chances etc?No, that’s an unreasonable standard, especially when we are dealing with an observable phenomenon that almost everyone has been commenting on since the first game of the season.

    Except your observations (and those of everyone else) are not consistent with all of the evidence we have. In this very thread we seen that the average shot distance for the Oilers was less than it was for the Coyotes. That is not consistent with your observations.

    So the burden of proof is on you. Because there is no evidence on your side except for what “everyone knows.” That’s not evidence.
    G Money,

    My memory is that the Oilers were still being outplayed, just slightly less so, if you considered shot quality.

    MenovOil:
    icecastles, Consistency is not a reason to tolerate incompetence. It’s painfully obvious that Eakins can’t coach at this level. There is not a single aspect of this team that has improved since he’s been here. Not a single player has gotten better either. Of course Mac T will sing ‘The consistency’ note, he hired the doofus to begin with.

    Now the way Mac T was hired leaves me with zero confidence that the men in charge have what it takes to truly make this team better. I could honestly see Kelly Buchberger taking over for Eakins at the end of the year without them even bothering to inverview Babcock.

    Just imagine if we had the Dallas combo of Nill/Ruff. Does anyone honestly believe we would be seeing the shit-show we have under our nose right now?

    This is the kind of nonsense that has no place here. It’s just random, unsubstantiated, venting that has no connection to reality. If you can’t see how much better this team is at so many things, you can’t see anything at all.

    It’s the danger of the absolute. The night of the absolute is the night in which all cows are black.

    You need to relearn how to see, and only then, speak.

  135. Caramel Obvious says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I mostly agree with your post. This team would probably allow fewer goals if they played more passively. As a result, they would probably win more games, in the short term.

    However, you can’t be a really good team playing that way. This is why I support Eakins. He wants them to play the only way you can be a dominant team. There is risk in this, because if you get outplayed playing a high tempo, pressure style, you can get exposed.

    I don’t care. I want my team to play that way anyway. It’s the only way to be a dominant team.

  136. Woodguy says:

    Numenius: Isn’t Ramsay exactly the guy who is in charge of the D? Aren’t some of the deployment decisions his fault?

    That’s the question.

    Is the deployment left to the coaches or is the GM dictating TOI?

    Deployment looking *exactly* like last year makes you question how much say Ramsay has.

  137. Bar_Qu says:

    Woodguy,

    book¡je: I agree and I am having a hard time figuring out who is pushing what.I don’t know at what level the push for Schultz comes from.It should be the coach but the coach may be responding to feedback from MacT or others.

    Doesn’t this raise the question of “is this groupthink?”

    I mean, if everyone in the organization feels Jultz is a good to great D, then couldn’t the discussion with all the new guys be convincing them there is more than meets the eye? I can’t imagine Dellow being taken in, but let’s face it, from the outside it doesn’t look like he has much contribution to what is happening on ice.

    I am fortunate that my son loves the Hawks with a passion of a thousand burning suns, so they are my de facto second team. I am nearly through with the Oilers and don’t see any changes until Lowe MacT and Eakins are gone. I actually considered not coming here this morning, which would be the first time that has happened during the season in 5 or 6 years.

  138. LMHF#1 says:

    G Money: You stated: “Eakins is a prescriptive-model coach rather than a performance-model coach. Most people don’t transition between the two once their personalities are set.
    This is a big problem.”

    The reason I took issue with your statements is they are NOT stated as conjecture, you’ve stated them as if they’re fact.If you agree that they are in fact conjecture, that you’re not inside that head, it might have read something like this:

    It seems to me that Eakins is a prescriptive-model coach rather than a performance-model coach.I say that because of the benching of Petry seems to be a perfect example of a prescriptive nature. “I can’t bench my captain, can’t keep sitting the rookie, need my 2nd powerplay defenceman but can’t dress 7 D, the other two are a pair…well, #2 it is!”. What a terrible method if that’s how it went down.


    If that’s the case, most people don’t transition between the two once their personalities are set.

    This is a big problem.

    You can tell me and my criticism to go take a flying f**k because you have the right to say whatever you want.Sure you do.But if you state conjecture as if it’s fact, someone somewhere is going to point it out…

    That’s fine, and I probably came off harsher toward you than intended. My apologies if that was the case.

    For the record I try not to speak or write the way you edited the comment. I’m confident in my read of the situation and if I’m not, I’ll either ask questions, express the uncertainty, or avoid commenting and simply listen/read. Sometimes I end up wrong and that’s okay. No problem admitting that if it comes to pass. This is why I wouldn’t opine about the latest cricket match or nuclear physics. Things like hockey and prescriptive people vs performance people? You bet. i deal with them (especially #2) all the time.

  139. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    spoiler,

    That’s correct. It’s not clean cut, it never is.

    Clean cut or not, It’s whether or not it helps you to understand, clarify, de-obfuscate, and de-subjectify what happened.This is the value of analysis (statistical or otherwise).

    And I think home plate analysis is *very* instructive in that regard, even as it has exceptions.I did not think any of the goals last night were bad rebounds, but at least one was a goalie giveaway.But even that could have been prevented with better defensive coverage.

    I watch games and then I try to use some measure of analysis to help me form a more objective opinion of what happened.

    Most games, in addition to Corsi (EV and Close), special teams results, and home plate analysis, I also watch every goal against on the NHL site the next day.It helps me be objective, and I believe it is why I’m often more optimistic about the team after a loss and more pessimistic after a win than many folks here.

    By the way, there is an interesting side note to the defensive coverage this year.Despite the fact that most of the goals against are from breakdowns in the slot (just like last year), the *way* in which those breakdowns are occurring is quite different.Last year, it was all about ‘wide open looks’.A completely uncovered player free to hammer a goal home on a defenseless goalie.

    This year, except on the goalie giveways (4 of them) and one bizarre ‘swarming’ sequence where all four Oilers chased a single player with the puck into the corner, there haven’t been many wide open looks.There have been two, three, even four Oilers in the slot.They’ve just done a piss poor job of taking the puck and the shot away.

    This is a huge change from last year.It’s working no better (so far), but it’s a huge change for the better.

    I suggest going back and looking at the first three LA Kings goals in particular if you want to see what I mean.

    And you are correct to point out one nuance – it is about the defensive coverage, which is five guys, and not just the two defensemen.

    That said, IMO, the defensive coverage last night was atrocious, and the defensemen were the biggest culprits.

    Excellent stuff. Couldn’t agree more.

    This shitty start is the Gords letting the org know how think patience is in town.

    As for the homeplate, a few guys have taken a crack at it but the NHL shot location data is considered too flawed to use (like hits, take aways etc)

    Everyone is waiting for the RF chips.

  140. book¡je says:

    Woodguy: That’s the question.

    Is the deployment left to the coaches or is the GM dictating TOI?

    Deployment looking *exactly* like last year makes you question how much say Ramsay has.

    Total unfounded speculation here (warned) but I wonder how much of the ice time aspect is MacT seeing ‘Schutz’ Good + Katz wanting his Coffey for his menagerie + MacT wanting Schultz to be happy so he can sign him to a good contract.

    I’m not even saying I believe all of that – just ideas running through my mind trying to figure out why smart people like Ramsey are making decisions that seem foolish.

  141. GriffCity says:

    What a sad state of affairs this hockey club is in after only 4 games…I would laugh if i wasn’t so frustrated and sad.

    I have some questions though that maybe someone knows the answer to:

    How does an NHL caliber goalie pull his groin? Did he forget to stretch? These guys should be like gumby any barring someone falling on him in an awkward position or twisting something in some freakish way how does this happen? You dont see it happening to any other teams and to me its BS and should virtually never happen.

    Why does Scrivens suck so horribly bad? His save % is one thing, and its a joke. No team can win when your goalie stops less than 80% of the pucks tossed his way. But secondly, what is he doing ith the puck behind his net? To my count that is 4..count em, 4!! goals scored directly as a result of his piss poor play with the puck…Looks like a joke

    Will the team ever learn the concept of playing hard in their own end? Some of these “kids” have almost 200 NHL games under their belts. Are you kidding me? You need to skate back to your own end just as hard as you skate in to the offensive zone. You need to backcheck and pick up a man and play aggressive. This passive d-zone coverage is the worst in the entire NHL. The Oilers have been nothing short of exposed and humiliated in their own end of the ice.

    Who is responsible for this mess? The coach? The players? The management? All of the above?
    The line up clearly does not have enough NHL level players on it…At all. I am afraid of what might happen this year with more performances like the last 2 nights. More jerseys on the ice? More empty seats? More fans discontent with the team they so desperately want to love? More bad trades?

    I am a true fan and will never stop being an Oilers fan but quite honestly, after so many abysmal years, I am getting tired of watching. In my heart I will remain a fan but as far as my time is concerned I am just about at the point where I need to stop watching, stop caring so much, and stop asking when things are going to get better. Because it doesn’t look like they will anytime soon.

  142. gmac2412 says:

    On a side note, looks like one defenceman that would not have looked out of place here based on his last work with the Oilers is no longer an option…..

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/ryan-whitney-signs-khl-hc-sochi/

  143. book¡je says:

    Woodguy: Excellent stuff. Couldn’t agree more.

    This shitty start is the Gords letting the org know how think patience is in town.

    As for the homeplate, a few guys have taken a crack at it but the NHL shot location data is considered too flawed to use (like hits, take aways etc)

    Everyone is waiting for the RF chips.

    I would add that maybe (just maybe) the good corsi and a few other things are the result of good coaching and the odd total defensive meltdown is the result of having rookies and near rookies in roles that they shouldn’t be in yet.

  144. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: So last night we sat our best defenseman, and no one here is whinging madly about it?

    How bizarre.

    Apparently.

    Who knew?

    I did warn about small samples, which is why I included last year’s numbers.

    The CAL game will skew the CA/60 stats for another 8 games or so as they were buried in terms of CA/60

    Much like last night in CHI where CAL was buried again and won with unreal goaltending.

    So given your comment, I’m assuming you’re picking CAL to make the playoffs as well.

    😀

  145. MenovOil says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    This is the kind of nonsense that has no place here. It’s just random, unsubstantiated, venting that has no connection to reality. If you can’t see how much better this team is at so many things, you can’t see anything at all.

    Wait until we start playing more of the better teams…

  146. book¡je says:

    GriffCity: How does an NHL caliber goalie pull his groin? Did he forget to stretch? These guys should be like gumby any barring someone falling on him in an awkward position or twisting something in some freakish way how does this happen? You dont see it happening to any other teams and to me its BS and should virtually never happen.

    It happens to other teams. These guys push their bodies far beyond the norm. Some of them are more rubbery than others, but the all have the potential to ‘break’.

  147. Woodguy says:

    Bar_Qu:
    Woodguy,

    Doesn’t this raise the question of “is this groupthink?”

    I mean, if everyone in the organization feels Jultz is a good to great D, then couldn’t the discussion with all the new guys be convincing them there is more than meets the eye? I can’t imagine Dellow being taken in, but let’s face it, from the outside it doesn’t look like he has much contribution to what is happening on ice.

    I am fortunate that my son loves the Hawks with a passion of a thousand burning suns, so they are my de facto second team. I am nearly through with the Oilers and don’t see any changes until Lowe MacT and Eakins are gone. I actually considered not coming here this morning, which would be the first time that has happened during the season in 5 or 6 years.

    I see Dellow’s influence in post face off strategy.

    World’s better than last year.

    Given Tyler’s long history of questioning Shultz I’d say that hill takes a little longer to climb than tinkering with the micro-strategies.

  148. Bag of Pucks says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I mostly agree with your post.This team would probably allow fewer goals if they played more passively.As a result, they would probably win more games, in the short term.

    However, you can’t be a really good team playing that way.This is why I support Eakins.He wants them to play the only way you can be a dominant team.There is risk in this, because if you get outplayed playing a high tempo, pressure style, you can get exposed.

    I don’t care.I want my team to play that way anyway.It’s the only way to be a dominant team.

    This team is SO far removed from dominance. If dominance is the penthouse, they’re crawling around in the root cellar with the flashlight shorted out.

    Winning is all that matters. How it gets done is immaterial. The Bruins dominate with a cycle game and by forcing the opposition to the wall. Same with the Kings. The Habs are doing well atm with a small, fast team playing the aggressive puck pursuit game you endorse. The NYR went to the finals last year playing positional, box out hockey and blocking a crap ton of shots. The Devils won 3 cups playing fundamental, positional hockey combined with superlative goaltending. That’s pretty dominant.

    There is more than one way to skin this cat. Eakins needs to realize that asap.

    The problem with this ‘there’s only one way to dominate’ mindset is this type of inflexibility absolutely guarantees ineptitude if you simply don’t have the personnel to execute that system

    I’ll gladly take staying competitive as the ceiling right now. Dominance, if it ever comes, is still predicated on the development of the young core.

  149. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy:

    Given Tyler’s long history of questioning Shultz I’d say that hill takes a little longer to climb than tinkering with the micro-strategies.

    You think that’s a hill they die on though?

    The desperate desire for an elite defencemen plus the feeling that you owe the guy for choosing your organization is a recipe for that sort of thing.

  150. icecastles says:

    book¡je: Well, sometimes the problem is the guy up top. I have tended to argue that Lowe doesn’t influence the team much, but there have been some consistent themes that have run through this organization for a decade+. There seems to be something against players who don’t fit a narrow definition of ‘dedicated’. There also has been some suggestions (Quinn was loudest) that there is a lot of tinkering from above. I don’t really know what’s true and what isn’t. However, there is only so long that you can allow things to go sour. I wouldn’t make the change now probably, but if things don’t look better in a year’s time, you have to make a change that involves Lowe going.

    Getting rid of Lowe wouldn’t be the Stalinesque purge the original poster was calling for. Nevertheless, I agree with what you write here. As you say, it’s really hard to know what kind of hand Lowe actually still has in the team. I’d say it’s limited, but I think it’s also somewhat irrelevant for the following reason:

    In MacT and Eakins, Lowe has found men with a similar value structure to his own.They may think differently and come t different conclusions, but all three seem to have a great deal of overlap in their love of dedication (positive spin) / subservience (negative spin) to the team. Promoting the same traits you personally value is hardly unique to this manager: it’s very very common.

    The tough thing about culture is that it perpetuates itself. And I think this is where some posters are coming from when they say they want a Stalin-esque purge. Once that culture of entitlement, or losing, or whatever manages to permeate through the organization, the only way to completely rid yourself of it with absolute certainty is to take off and nuke the site from orbit (to quote Cpl Hicks). Of course that assumes that whatever fills the remaining void will be an improvement, and that’s hardly a sure thing.

  151. Numenius says:

    book¡je: I would add that maybe (just maybe) the good corsi and a few other things are the result of good coaching and the odd total defensive meltdown is the result of having rookies and near rookies in roles that they shouldn’t be in yet.

    Scrivens suggested in his interview that players are also still getting used to the systems, which are not standard ones and (I infer from what he said) are also difficult to implement.

    This could be a key reason for the uneven play. Like an earlier poster said, the systems seem to be ones that when you mess up, you give up 5 bell chances in the slot.

  152. Woodguy says:

    book¡je: I would add that maybe (just maybe) the good corsi and a few other things are the result of good coaching and the odd total defensive meltdown is the result of having rookies and near rookies in roles that they shouldn’t be in yet.

    I’m actually kicking around a post in my head for my blog about this.

    MOAR ROOKIES strategy the team has employed since 2007 is the single largest culprit in their record.

    A close 2nd is sending out Actual NHL players to create the hole for a rookie to fill.

    It’s about to happen again with Petry.

    MacT once went on and on about the. “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result”

    Perhaps he should heed his own advice.

  153. Woodguy says:

    LMHF#1: You think that’s a hill they die on though?

    The desperate desire for an elite defencemen plus the feeling that you owe the guy for choosing your organization is a recipe for that sort of thing.

    Yeah, I think he’s here for another 5 years at least.

    It’s a big issue.

  154. commonfan14 says:

    AZOIL: Nill would have had the balls to make a trade of one of the young guns to bring in something equal or better. Maybe Seguin would be an oiler alongside hall on our top line. What would that have taken? Likely Eberle and more.

    According to some reputable source that I don’t remember anymore, the rumour before draft day was that Boston had offered Seguin to the Flames for the 6th pick and the Flames turned it down.

    So it might not have taken much beyond the Nurse pick.

  155. G Money says:

    One of the few things I enjoyed about last night’s game is that while Gagner and his infamous faceoffs were somehow up at 58% (did he ever have a game that high with the Oilers?), Dr. Drai was 100% against Sammy head to head.

  156. VanOil says:

    Trade Jultz for a C

    Sign Petry

    FREE MARINCIN

    Plan leaving parties for Nitikin and Ference

    This is becoming a mantra for me. I apologize for the repetition but I am on the cusp of giving up hope. My Center Ice package has been cancelled and I watched reruns last night rather than most of the game. Nothing above is that difficult, Jultz should easily return a 2/3C. Petry can be signed and Marincin is a phone call away. The leaving parties will take more skill to arrange but the fortitude to do it is all that is really required.

  157. AZOIL says:

    Does anyone know where is a good station to listen to Hockey or Oilers talk radio online?

    Nevermind I found TSN 1260, nice!

  158. AZOIL says:

    commonfan14: According to some reputable source that I don’t remember anymore, the rumour before draft day was that Boston had offered Seguin to the Flames for the 6th pick and the Flames turned it down.

    So it might not have taken much beyond the Nurse pick.

    Wow they really wanted him out of Beantown. Just too much of a party animal I guess and they really do have a solid 1,2 punch for C’s in Boston. Crazy.

  159. Marcus Oilerius says:

    Caramel Obvious,

    The burden of proof most definitely is not on me. Not a game passes where commentators from around the NHL aren’t tearing apart some hideous defensive miscue on the Oilers part. The fact that no one has yet bothered to calculate these chances and watch an entire NHL season for contrast doesn’t mean that the situation doesn’t exist.

    Fenwick close isn’t shot quality. It’s correlated with shot quality, but does nothing to address situations where players are uncovered and left wide open, like Bodeker. As far as Fenwick close is concerned, Bodeker had a chance equal to Ryan Smyth with two defencemen draped over him, poking the puck at the pads of a goalie who is already down and set.

    Right now you guys sound like Robert Mcnamara, talking about bullets and shells fired while unable to explain why the ear is getting worse.

  160. JUST********WOWIT says:

    Retweeted by TSN Hockey
    BarDown ‏@BarDown 4h4 hours ago
    Oct 16 ’89
    Devils trade Tom Kurvers 2 Toronto in exchange for 1st round pick in ’91…Devils pick Scott Niedermayer

  161. book¡je says:

    icecastles,

    Exactly – the biggest problem with Stalinesque purges is that they didn’t include Stalin – maybe that’s what has happened here.

    Hopefully, things get figured out quickly at the Coach/GM/Player level and we don’t have to think about it anymore.

  162. icecastles says:

    AZOIL: Does anyone know where is a good station to listen to Hockey or Oilers talk radio online?

    Oilers Now with Bob Stauffer is a good 2-hour segment from 12-2 on 630ched.com every weekday. Inside Sports (also on Ched) broadcasts from 6-9pm and is largely Oilers-focused.
    Lowetide’s show in TSN1260 streams at 10am.
    Not sure, but I think there are archives of all three shows to listen to off of broadcast times.

  163. JUST********WOWIT says:

    Pouzar,

    Wasn’t it Yak who should have stepped into Pearson there? I mean, Hunt did himself no favors for sure, and MM would have just swiped that puck off the attackers stick.

  164. icecastles says:

    book¡je: Exactly – the biggest problem with Stalinesque purges is that they didn’t include Stalin – maybe that’s what has happened here.

    Bazinga! Love it.

    They did take out Trotsky though…

  165. rickithebear says:

    Evga?60 is a reflection of Box protectiion:
    See BOS; CHI; LAK.
    Drew last night:
    you do not leave the box untill you are sure the forwards have the front!

    Rule 1: protect the box!
    GM1: goals 1-5 About Veterans Followiing pinch system.
    GM2: goals 6-10 About 2 illegal goals
    GM 3: goals 11-16 About 2 prospects aggresively following the pinch
    GM 4: goals 17-23 about 3 vetran sytem fails.

    2 were illegal:
    G6: sedin elbows ference in head. fails to rcover. side net goal.
    G7: glove pass

    5 were end game gifts.
    G5: PPG hig OZ press trying for end game goal
    G9: PPG 6 loses stick (free slot0
    G10: Shoot out Winner
    G16: PPG puck stoped goaie does not cover
    G23 Empty net

    4 were scrivens behind the net.
    G1: EVG
    G2 EVG:
    G15: EVG
    G18 EVG

    5 were veteran system fails:
    G3: fayne pinch (aekins system)
    G$; Fayne Pinch (aekins system)
    G17: Petry fails to reognize Boedker
    G19: T.O OZ blue 4 on 2
    G22: 3 fwds leave DZ coverage.

    5 are prospect fails
    G11: EVG nurse pinch and box fail
    G12 EVG Hunt pinch 2 on 1
    G13: SHG Toffoli walks Hunt
    G14: EVG Nurse leaves Box
    G20: EVG Schultz leaves Box.

    2 were good goals generated by opposition.
    G8: PPG
    G21: EVG

  166. hunter1909 says:

    PunjabiOil: Paying someone top 4 money doesn’t make them so.

    But didn’t Kevin Lowe once overpay third liner Ethan Moreau, and in no time at all he was Captain?

  167. DeadmanWhaling says:

    GoDaddy’s performance is more uneven than usual today. These are times (in seconds) to first byte, which is the quickest way to assign blame to the server side of the equation (numbers all padded to three digits for alignment).


    3.45 thread page refresh
    33.0 load profile page
    34.0 post profile page change
    0.35 post profile page change
    0.75 post profile page change
    1.63 can't remember what I clicked
    34.0 thread page refresh

    It’s almost certainly not the site’s programming when the profile page takes 30 s one time and 0.3 s on another. Most probable explanation is that the server is resource starved for the number of sites it is trying to serve concurrently.

    When the working set exceeds system memory, it’s common to see order of magnitude jumps in response latency. The server runs around the kitchen trying to cook an eight course meal and every countertop is still covered with dirty dishes from lunch, and the sink is full of pasta strainers filled with steaming pasta that you can’t serve because none of the sauces are done yet, and you can’t plate, because you’ve got nowhere to set out the plates until the sauces are finished.

    Then you get the brilliant idea to break the logjam by setting up a card table out in the garage, and you plate the pasta there to free up the sink, only the garage is fully detached, and now your sioux chef is spending most of his time changing from his indoor moccasins to his outdoor moccasins—one handed, because there’s nowhere to set down the plate he’s presently holding.

  168. hunter1909 says:

    icecastles: It was important to get rid of a lot of dead weight from the team, both players and management, and they’ve done that. But a point comes when you need some stability and consistency and guys who can build a comfort level, a familiarity and a rapport with one another.

    How does Eakins build anything? The players hate his guts. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of body language can see it too.

    The 30th place Oilers are the absolute talking point/laughing stock of the NHL today. Dallas Eakins is an abject failure by any measure one wants to make. For example, right now, and it’s still early in the season, Oiler’s are ripping up the NHL at a blistering 20.5 points rate.

  169. hunter1909 says:

    icecastles: Of course that assumes that whatever fills the remaining void will be an improvement, and that’s hardly a sure thing.

    Oilers set to breeze back to Rexall Place, set to finish the season with 20.5 points. Improvement is possible.

  170. JUST********WOWIT says:

    DeadmanWhaling: GoDaddy

    This site is hosted by Godaddy? Now I don’t know much about no web-hosting, but just judging from their commercials, I figured that they were a rather shady biz.

    Did LT at least get a life-sized poster of Whatshername?

  171. AZOIL says:

    hunter1909: How does Eakins build anything? The players hate his guts. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of body language can see it too.

    The 30th place Oilers are the absolute talking point/laughing stock of the NHL today. Dallas Eakins is an abject failure by any measure one wants to make. For example, right now, and it’s still early in the season, Oiler’s are ripping up the NHL at a blistering 20.5 points rate.

    I was a fan of Eakins when they hired him but I can tell he is one of those guys that is hard to work with. The way he throws tantrums it reminds me of Jim Harbaugh in the NFL. He has brought the 49’ers to the NFC championship game three years in a row and has been wildly successful wherever he goes. Yet with all of that players and the GM can’t stand the guy, he is abrasive and hard to work with, he likes conflict and if there isn’t any he will engineer it some how some way. I see a lot of similarities in these two coaches except one of them has not been successful.

    I do not want to give these young players a new head coach and I am usually the ultra optimist but man I start to think of who is out there after seeing some of the things he is doing and has done.

  172. Bag of Pucks says:

    Parsing Scrivens comments from last night, he seems to be of the belief that Eakins’ system will eventually be effective in maximizing the talent of the team, particularly on the offensive side, but they’re struggling under this system with the balance between the forwards wanting to breakout aggressively vs providing adequate coverage on the back check.

    ‘Struggling to learn the system.’

    Why is this a common refrain with the players?

    Why force a complex system on young talent with fragile confidence?

    Lars Eller said the Oilers play like a junior team. That seems charitable. I see far more defensive structure and responsibility with the Oil Kings than I see on the major league club,

    Every D man on the team plays as if he’s caught between instinct ( I.e. What a lifetime of hockey is telling them about positioning) vs learned behaviour (rifling through the video coaching sessions ad nauseam in real time to confirm where they’re supposed to be for this particular scenario).

    Dallas Eakins is not Chip Kelly. He’s Al Davis, stubbornly convinced he still has the better mousetrap while the rest of the league abandons his ‘vertical game’ for the west coast offence.

    Dallas, simplify, it’s literally that simple. Take the mental handcuffs off this team, deploy your best talent wisely, and get the hell out of the way.

  173. icecastles says:

    Pouzar:
    FREE MARINCIN

    http://cdn0.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/2356150/867969041.0.gif

    You have to admit though, that was a crazy beautiful deke.

  174. jake70 says:

    You know, I don’t understand 90% of RTB’s posts but this box protection thing just might have some legs. I mean can it get any worse? Do we ….gulp…recall Aulie?

    Edit: To be clear…kidding about Aulie.

  175. jake70 says:

    hunter1909: The players hate his guts. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of body language can see it too.

    Still don’t think they would have fragged him in Nam..lol.

  176. icecastles says:

    hunter1909: How does Eakins build anything? The players hate his guts. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of body language can see it too.

    Speaking as someone who did this very thing (understanding body language) at a pretty high level for a number of years, I’d love to hear your explanation of what exactly you’re seeing that tells you with such certainty that they hate his guts. You tell us several times a day that they hate him, but repetition isn’t the same as evidence. And you have yet to actually lay out your argument.

    I’m not saying you’re wrong, per se. If you have the understanding of body language that you claim, then you are well aware that all the visual information in the world is useless without a baseline. In other words, having closely observed the individuals, in normal circumstances, with the variable removed. Since I don’t know the players personally and have only a television set by which to observe them (typically showing the bench mostly after events such as a goal or penalty), I have no baseline. Apparently you do.

    So again, I’m not saying you’re wrong that they hate him. Perhaps they do. But until you can lay out your evidence, none of us have one single reason to believe you, no matter how many times you repeat your assertion.

  177. icecastles says:

    JUST********WOWIT: This site is hosted by Godaddy? Now I don’t know much about no web-hosting, but just judging from their commercials, I figured that they were a rather shady biz.
    Did LT at least get a life-sized poster of Whatshername?

    I had icecastles.net hosted by GoDaddy in their early days. Even 15 years ago they were huge. A pretty normal high-volume low-margine host (sort of the Wal Mart of web hosting services). Their marketing angle is strange, but it seems to work. Once you get past the sexy ladies, there’s not realyl anything shady or unusual about them though.

  178. book¡je says:

    icecastles: Bazinga! Love it.

    They did take out Trotsky though…

    Ah, the Lessons of October, What is to be Done?

  179. icecastles says:

    book¡je: Ah, the Lessons of October, What is to be Done?

    The Oilers: Party Like It’s 1917!

    too bad there are already so many red jerseys in the league.

  180. CrazyCoach says:

    hunter1909: How does Eakins build anything? The players hate his guts. Anyone with a rudimentary understanding of body language can see it too.

    Careful, Caramel Obvious will ask you to analyze every coach since Toe Blake and tell you Eakins is doing a masterful job.

  181. Pouzar says:

    JUST********WOWIT:
    Pouzar,

    Wasn’t it Yak who should have stepped into Pearson there? I mean, Hunt did himself no favors for sure, and MM would have just swiped that puck off the attackers stick.

    Looks like Yak could have yes…but that’s some funny stuff right there!

  182. Pouzar says:

    Hope_Smoke ‏@Hope_Smoke 18s18 seconds ago
    Ferraro “The coach looked like he didn’t have any answers. Was first time I thought they might not be able to stay the course w the coach”

  183. bendelson says:

    icecastles: Speaking as someone who did this very thing (understanding body language) at a pretty high level for a number of years, I’d love to hear your explanation of what exactly you’re seeing that tells you with such certainty that they hate his guts. You tell us several times a day that they hate him, but repetition isn’t the same as evidence. And you have yet to actually lay out your argument.

    I’m not saying you’re wrong, per se. If you have the understanding of body language that you claim, then you are well aware that all the visual information in the world is useless without a baseline. In other words, having closely observed the individuals, in normal circumstances, with the variable removed. Since I don’t know the players personally and have only a television set by which to observe them (typically showing the bench mostly after events such as a goal or penalty), I have no baseline. Apparently you do.

    So again, I’m not saying you’re wrong that they hate him. Perhaps they do. But until you can lay out your evidence, none of us have one single reason to believe you, no matter how many times you repeat your assertion.

    Do you have a read on Eakins ‘body language’ behind the bench?
    Same problem – no baseline?

    How about you Hunter?

  184. Yeti says:

    Woodguy:
    That it right there LT.

    That’s the boogeyman.

    They are playing their worst defensive Dman the most.

    Yes, but one of the reasons he is the worst Dman is because they play him the most. He is – in part – a victim of this craziness, and he would look a darned sight better and more capable if his ice time was dialed down.

  185. Kmart99 says:

    Oilers PDO 88 … So they’ve had shit luck. Thanks for the NEWSFLASH.

    Bad goaltending
    Bad DZone coverage
    Bad dman deployment

  186. Pouzar says:

    Kmart99:
    Oilers PDO 88 … So they’ve had shit luck.Thanks for the NEWSFLASH.

    Bad goaltending
    Bad DZone coverage
    Bad dman deployment

    2 of those 3 MAY be fixed. The remaining one, won’t…and it’s the easiest.

  187. Pouzar says:

    Hope_Smoke ‏@Hope_Smoke 7m7 minutes ago
    Ferraro “Now you get to the 2nd year & they should be more comfortable & there should be signs of improvement and there really hasn’t been”

  188. Pouzar says:

    Hope_Smoke ‏@Hope_Smoke 15s15 seconds ago
    Ferraro ” it’s really difficult to find something positive to say about them [Oilers]. Sometimes I try, but I just can’t.”

  189. Pouzar says:

    Matt Henderson ‏@Archaeologuy 30s30 seconds ago
    As per Oilers Now, Todd Nelson said he was shocked that Marincin was back in the AHL because he’s an NHL Defenseman

  190. bendelson says:

    Pouzar:
    Hope_Smoke ‏@Hope_Smoke15s15 seconds ago
    Ferraro ” it’s really difficult to find something positive to say about them [Oilers]. Sometimes I try, but I just can’t.”

    C’mon Ray!
    Taylor Hall is a fantastic hockey player. Full stop.

    That was not difficult.

  191. icecastles says:

    bendelson: Do you have a read on Eakins ‘body language’ behind the bench?
    Same problem – no baseline?

    Aside from seeing someone get excited or pissed off or momentary changes of mood, anyone who claims to understand a person’s personality or deeper relationships based on some TV exposure during a sporting event is speaking 100% out of their ass.

    So same problem, yes. It’s no different than when people were going on about Hemsky’s body language a couple years ago. None of us knows what it’s like to interact with Dallas Eakins as an individual outside of the game/practice/press conference setting.

    That said, I’m pretty sure he is a close relative of this guy.

  192. hunter1909 says:

    CrazyCoach: Careful, Caramel Obvious will ask you to analyze every coach since Toe Blake and tell you Eakins is doing a masterful job.

    Back when then coach MacT was publicly crucifying Rob Schremp, I emailed Red Fisher at The Montreal Gazette to specifically ask him if Toe Blake ever publicly dissed his players. Red was great; got right back to me. He said Blake never said a thing.

    There’s something despicable about publicly calling out underlings. It’s no way to behave. it’s what small men do.

  193. Lowetide says:

    icecastles: Speaking as someone who did this very thing (understanding body language) at a pretty high level for a number of years, I’d love to hear your explanation of what exactly you’re seeing that tells you with such certainty that they hate his guts. You tell us several times a day that they hate him, but repetition isn’t the same as evidence. And you have yet to actually lay out your argument.

    I’m not saying you’re wrong, per se. If you have the understanding of body language that you claim, then you are well aware that all the visual information in the world is useless without a baseline. In other words, having closely observed the individuals, in normal circumstances, with the variable removed. Since I don’t know the players personally and have only a television set by which to observe them (typically showing the bench mostly after events such as a goal or penalty), I have no baseline. Apparently you do.

    So again, I’m not saying you’re wrong that they hate him. Perhaps they do. But until you can lay out your evidence, none of us have one single reason to believe you, no matter how many times you repeat your assertion.

    Yeah, this is a really strong point. I know it’s open season on Eakins, but there’s no evidence he’s hated beyond the author of the post that states he’s hated. Very important for us to remember that opinion is a long way from fact, no matter how it is framed.

  194. VanOil says:

    Jultz + Gernat + Pick for Tyler Myers a player that really could win the Norris

    ??? + Lander for Kyle Brodziak

    Return Nurse and the German to Jr.

    FREE MARNICIN

    Sign Petry

  195. book¡je says:

    icecastles: Aside from seeing someone get excited or pissed off or momentary changes of mood, anyone who claims to understand a person’s personality or deeper relationships based on some TV exposure during a sporting event is speaking 100% out of their ass.

    None of us knows what it’s like to interact with Dallas Eakins as an induvidual outside of the game/practice/press conference setting.

    That said, I’m pretty sure he is a close relative of this guy.

    I thought it was this guy

  196. JUST********WOWIT says:

    icecastles: I’m pretty sure he is a close relative of this guy.

    Nice. Dallas Eagles.

  197. bendelson says:

    icecastles: Aside from seeing someone get excited or pissed off or momentary changes of mood, anyone who claims to understand a person’s personality or deeper relationships based on some TV exposure during a sporting event is speaking 100% out of their ass.

    None of us knows what it’s like to interact with Dallas Eakins as an individual outside of the game/practice/press conference setting.

    That said, I’m pretty sure he is a close relative of this guy.

    Well there is certainly no ‘good times’ baseline from which to compare his current demeanor against. That is clear.

    That being said, it sounds like Ray saw something and it’s conceivable he would have a much better idea about these things than we would.

  198. book¡je says:

    Lowetide: Yeah, this isa really strong point. I know it’s open season on Eakins, but there’s no evidence he’s hated beyond the author of the post that states he’s hated. Very important for us to remember that opinion is a long way from fact, no matter how it is framed.

    I agree. While there is often a lot of tension between coaches and players in tough times, I don’t think we have much evidence or even casual observation supporting that.

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