MUSIC!

Dallas Eakins

The Edmonton Oilers are 6-8-1 after 15 games, a nice step up from 3-10-2 one year ago. This is a team finding out some things about itself: They can tighten up like Archie Bell (for extended periods) and they can win two in a row without Taylor Hall. This is a great feeling, hold on to it as long as you can, and then let it linger a little longer.

Music.

Dallas Eakins deserves a great deal of credit for forward deployment, and it looks like they’re slowly coming together as a defensive unit. It’s easy to forget that chemistry doesn’t happen overnight and the final piece might be Nikitin-Petry but we’ll see. I also think the Oilers might have found their starting goaltender on the trip.

pouliot capture

Benoit Pouliot appears to be a target this fall, as that contract has many wondering how he’ll cover it. I like him plenty, and will consider this deal a strong one if the big man keeps doing what he’s doing. A large winger with size and a physical element, he’s been babysitter (early) and then moved up to the big line when Taylor Hall was injured. I see Pouliot as the exact player Edmonton has been pursuing in the draft since Brad Winchester in 2000. He’s a big man with enough skill to play a complementary role with really good players (usually smaller) and give the other side a different bat to worry about in the lineup. He’s not exactly a power forward, but (like David Perron) can supply that agitating, hustling component and win board battles. I’ll call him a modern Wayne Cashman, although that arrow shoots past its mark by more than a little.  I’m loving Benoit Pouliot as an Oiler.

rnh4

Baby Nuge is all grown up. In the biggest city in the NHL, the young man walked into historic Madison Square Garden and skated like the wind, scoring and creating and generally establishing he was the best player on the ice. I wrote about this day back in the late summer, and would like to quote the final paragraph (imagine a cat kicking another cat off a bed while reading):

  • So, for those who question the Nuge, his game, his ability get a stick out of his cage (it’s probably pretty damn difficult) and anything else, party on. One day soon, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is going to shock you just like that cat-in-the-bag shocked the kitty kat on the bed above. Nuge will come to your town, play a complete game, and his team will leave with two points.

Five years. You have to wait five years because by then you know what the player is, and we’re a year away from five years with Nuge. We’re still getting to know Yakupov and all of those second and third and fourth round picks. It’s so hard to be patient, but remember someone once waited for you to get to where you are now, maybe even enjoyed watching you grow up. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed RNH’s ascent and can’t wait for the next five and ten years. Last night was splendid, just outstanding. What a hockey player.

khaira ferguson 1415

THE FUTURE

I’m doing quite a bit of work on the Top 20 Prospects lists these days (No. 2 prospect will post at 5pm) and one thing that’s coming obvious is two recent drafts (2012 and 2013)  are putting a great deal of importance on size.

  • Bogdan Yakimov 6.04, 232
  • Darnell Nurse 6.04, 205
  • Daniil Zharkov 6.04, 212
  • Jujhar Khaira 6.03, 214
  • Mitch Moroz 6.02, 214
  • Anton Slepyshev 6.02, 194
  • Leon Draisaitl 6.01, 210
  • Marc-Olivier Roy 6.00, 185

That’s a lot of heavy bodies coming into the system, and even a guy like Iiro Pakarinen (6.01, 215) is a load. I’m not saying the Marco Roy’s and Andrew Miller’s and Kyle Platzer’s won’t have a place, but they’re going to be out there with some bigger men. The question I have about all of the men on this list: How many of them can skate well enough to flourish in the NHL?

arcobello1

ARCO!

Earlier this season, our man Arcobello looked pedestrian. I don’t mean defensively or without the puck (he’s got ‘future coach’ written all over him) but in terms of helping out on the offense. He’s now at 15GP, 4-2-6 and on pace for a 33-point season. Nothing stellar, but in his role (2line C on the road, 4line C at home) that’s good production (1.19/60 at 5×5 via BTN). Eventually Leon will pass him, but the small center is filling an important role this season.

wood14

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

TSN 1260, 10 this morning. It’ll be a fun show, with Scott Burnside from ESPN (10:05), Eric Rodgers from Tend the Farm (10:25) and Dennis King (11:05) providing the entertainment and wisdom. Your chance to chime in on the winning comes at 11:25, and I’ll talk Eskimos with Dave Jamieson at 11:45.

See you on the radio!

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139 Responses to "MUSIC!"

  1. BrazilianOil says:

    I belive RNG will be a better player than Hall in ten years.

  2. Caribbeerman says:

    I thought Arcobello did very well last night and he has been coming along in the last few games…I would expect he will gain some ice time in foreign rinks and lose some at home to Leon…but he surely has been a plus player (figuratively and literally) on this team.

  3. Jordan says:

    Just when I think that I’m done with this team. Just when I’m sure that I can write off the team and the year, with a defense that can’t defend, forwards that can’t cash, and Hall out for a month… they go out and do that?

    Sigh.

    I’m grudgingly back on the bandwagon.

    GOD I LOVE THIS RIDE! GOD I HATE THIS RIDE!

    BrazilianOil:
    I belive RNG will be a better player than Hall in ten years.

    I don’t think that anyone can predict the odds on RNG.

  4. oliveoilers says:

    That, I believe, was Eakins’ best game as coach. Impeccable line matching, tactical adjustment in real time – seemed like everything came together. Now the true test, and the stat guys will agree, is repeatability.

  5. Lucinius says:

    As someone who’s been fairly hard on Eakins thus far, I have to give him some props for last night.

    But, honestly, last night was Flames’ hockey; in that the Oilers played like a team, worked hard and accomplished things by commitee by covering for one another when shit did hit the fan with give-aways, and had a goalie make the saves when needed.

    Add to that the natural skill on the Oilers and it took King Henrik to keep the score close. Very good game, but until there’s a couple more like it I’m not buying into it. We see games like this every now and then.. and they usually follow it up with a stinker. Given the weakness of the Rangers’ D last night, and them being in the 2nd Tier Conference.. I’m skeptical.

    Also, the Oilers would be a playoff team in the East.. but which Western Conference team wouldn’t be? I long for the days of the top 16 making the playoffs and more cross conference games.

  6. 99thoilerfan says:

    Good Morning LT,

    Thanks for my morning Wood, that is one lucky dog !

  7. su_dhillon says:

    So we’re up to 3 or games now where Nuge has been the best player on the ice, he’s played 10 so that’s not bad. Yak seems to be clawing at the surface of a breakout, thought he created a bunch of turnovers that directly lead to chances, goals will come. It will be fun seeing Nuge go super Nova this year and Yak hopefully going Nova? Pre-Nova?

    Also how about Jeff Petry on the back end, he’s like Olivia Pope, he’s the fixer. Whoever is struggling on left side, stick them with Petry and they look good. Thought Nikitin played his best game last night, no surprise it was with #2, man I’;m going to miss him. I know they had a lot of guys go positive in Corsi but Nitkitin’s +3 in pretty tough minutes was a very good sign.

    If Petry is the fixer, what do we call Aulie? Poor Mark Fayne.

    Also I get on Jultz a lot but that was easily his best game I’ve seen this year, there were a few moments of Jultzing but overall he played a pretty responsible game and created chances the other way.

    Loved having a great Oilers performance on a day the afternoon NFL games were terrible.Music!

  8. frjohnk says:

    The future
    Draisaitl and Nurse will be difference makers playing in the top 6 F and top 4 D respectively.
    Yak2 has a good chance of playing mid 6.

    Slepy might be the classic case of being brought up to the show ( KHL) at a young age, left to rot on the bench and does not get developed properly. Too bad if that happens. Hopefully he comes to the AHL next year and gets a fresh start.

    The rest of those players are most likely 4th liners or AHLer’s or just plain do not pan out ( Zharkov)

  9. Henry says:

    Even Lindy Ruff would love the Nuge.

    He is an Olympian next time out.

  10. ASkoreyko says:

    There was one shift last night where RNH was essentially everywhere in the offensive zone for an extended shift and then NYR managed to break out and guess who was skating back as hard as he could keeping up with the trailing winger?

    That shift was pretty magical and for me announced that this is his team until Hall gets back, possibly even after that at some point.

    RNH is beautiful hockey player and looked like an actual man with man size and man strength last night. I think you are right LT, there is going to be more than a few opposing players who are going to be made to look foolish when they realize what they are now up against!

  11. Lucinius says:

    Also, I’d just like to add that now that RNH has actually hit the age of sixteen and can grow facial hair he’s a beast of a player.

    I can’t wait until that kid hits twenty!

  12. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I watch the games on Gamecenter as I abandoned TV some time ago. It gives me the option of which feed to watch, for this one I chose the NYR feed.

    Every time the Rangers announcers talked about the Nuge their pants got tighter. They absolutely gushed about his ability and overall potential. It was nice to get a little confirmation from an unbiased source.

  13. Clarkenstein says:

    Mirage!

  14. Kitchener says:

    Absolutely, 93 is a treat. As is 4. And so will 10 be in the not-so-distant future.

    That’s three world-beaters on one team, folks.

  15. judgedrude says:

    oliveoilers:
    That, I believe, was Eakins’ best game as coach. Impeccable line matching, tactical adjustment in real time – seemed like everything came together. Now the true test, and the stat guys will agree, is repeatability.

    Wow, out coaching Alain Vigneault on the road is a pretty solid compliment.

  16. judgedrude says:

    Lucinius,

    I remember the days when it was called “Oilers Hockey”!

  17. Pouzar says:

    And to think Nuge is going to get even bigger and stronger yet. And he will.

    I mentioned in the last thread that I think he needs to be a driver of his own line.
    I know the sample size is small but he looks like he can do it. Love Pouliot on that line.
    If we can get Nuge and Hall to be drivers on their respective lines we really have taken the next step.
    People were clamoring for Nuge/Ebs/Yak to step it up in Hall’s absence and I think they did.

    Now re-sign Petry.

  18. thejonrmcleod says:

    Am I spending too much time on this blog if I correctly predicted the title of today’s post?

  19. Bar_Qu says:

    I enjoyed the game yesterday, but it was fairly obvious to me the difference in style of play from the stronger teams in the western conference. I think the Rangers have skill, but they are not the heavy hitting opponent which has been giving Edmonton fits this season. Instead there was a lot of finesse play (for lack of a better word) moving up and down the ice, which played to the Oilers’ strengths.

    Maybe it was the Oilers dictating the pace, maybe it really was RNH & Co doing what they are capable of, but the pessimist in me wonders what the results will be at the end of the month against teams like the Preds, Blues, Canucks, Blackhawks and Coyotes.

    If the result of the next 9 is 5-4 or better (even 4-4-1) then I will start to be cautiously hopeful. Again.

  20. "Frank The Dog" says:

    Dare I suggest that we perhaps may not need that 2C quite as much as we did yesterday morning?

    Real test comes tonight. Hopefully this is a trap game for Nashville for a change, the team they spanked on the road coming to music city minus their best player for the last game of a long road trip.

    I tend to agree a lot with GMoney. My reservations about Dallas are about his ability to perform given what we’ve seen this season with his improved roster and Assistants. Buffalo meant a little, New York meant more, Nashville is a good bellweather.

    Swapping Poo and Chance between the 1 and 2 lines sounds solid, especially if Dallas can also swap Arco and Drai, initially in home games, especially as Drai’s game continues to develop.
    (Edited for repetition)

  21. Pretendergast says:

    Nuge was fantastic but so was Yak. 5 shots and getting on his horse to pick off passes in the ozone was a delight to see. The scoring will come if he plays like that every night. Strong game by the forwards all around. Goilers!

  22. HiddenDarts says:

    Someone clearly poured a whole case of optimism sauce on this blog this morning.

    It was a good game, and for me just watching somewhat dominant hockey by the Oilers makes for pretty fantastic stuff.

    But Nashville will be a test. And not to be a downer, but soak it up now, friends. There’s a month stretch starting Nov22 that will show how much of a team this really is.

    It could make for some dark, dark times.

  23. RexLibris says:

    Went to EliteProspects to have a look at our old friend Zharkov.

    8 gp in the VHL (Not the MHL, so I’m guessing another development league of the KHL), one goal, one assist, -2.

    Not good.

    His KHL totals the last two years running are 55 gp, 5pts, +4. If he were a shutdown defenseman I’d say maybe we’ve got something here, but a big, speedy, scoring winger? There’s a problem here and I’m not sure if we’re just losing something in translation.

  24. G Money says:

    oliveoilers: Now the true test, and the stat guys will agree, is repeatability.

    Yep, especially against a Western team. It’s one thing to hammer Buffalo or a McDonagh&Boyle-less Rangers team, quite another to do it against LA.

    Having a plus-Corsi game not rife with score effects against Nashville, which is a good and big but NOT elite team, would be a real good start.

    I am encouraged by Poo having chemistry with Nuge and Eberle – having that line working gives Eakins the ability to put Hall on a different line, and on paper that means two lines that don’t need sheltering. Combine that with the Commissioner Gordon line and with those three lines you cover off 50+ minutes of a game where you don’t have to worry too much about the matchups, even on the road. *That’s* music!

  25. Unicorns says:

    Bar_Qu:
    I enjoyed the game yesterday, but it was fairly obvious to me the difference in style of play from the stronger teams in the western conference. I think the Rangers have skill, but they are not the heavy hitting opponent which has been giving Edmonton fits this season. Instead there was a lot of finesse play (for lack of a better word) moving up and down the ice, which played to the Oilers’ strengths.

    Maybe it was the Oilers dictating the pace, maybe it really was RNH & Co doing what they are capable of, but the pessimist in me wonders what the results will be at the end of the month against teams like the Preds, Blues, Canucks, Blackhawks and Coyotes.

    If the result of the next 9 is 5-4 or better (even 4-4-1) then I will start to be cautiously hopeful. Again.

    I had the same thoughts. It was fun to watch, but the Rangers didn’t put up much of a fight and Vigneault had little to coach in his D corp. Hopkins was great (and is legit I think). Eberle, given time and space, played well.

    But the Oilers for years have been dangerous when given time and space, and play a much less effective game when made to battle for what they get, Hall and certain players in each game excepted.

    Yak looks really good this year but that lad is snake bit right now. If Draisaitl can find offense to put with that puck protection he’ll be a beast. Petry played well, but there is a visual aspect to his game (he doesn’t ‘look’ solid) that I hope the team can get past and suspect might be the underlying issue for them. I have my doubts.

  26. G Money says:

    HiddenDarts,

    Lately I’ve somehow become associated with the voice of pessimism.

    Other times over the last two seasons, when the team has been beaten up but the signs underneath were encouraging, I’ve been accused of being a blind optimist for pointing those out.

    Must be doing something right!

  27. Магия 10 says:

    Jordan: GOD I LOVE THIS RIDE! GOD I HATE THIS RIDE!

    Break out the Bookje points.

  28. G Money says:

    On the whole optimist thing …

    At the start of the year, I expected RNH would go supernova this year and said so.

    Before the Rangers game, I was arguing with a Flames fan (I co-own this cabin with a Flames fan and a Leafs/Oilers fan, LOL, real winners gallery here), who was talking smack about the Oilers #1OVs.

    I told him Hall was easily one of the two best left wingers in the game already, and that Nuge was looking more like Pavel Datsyuk every game, and I fully expected him to be the best two-way centre in the game in two years.

    And I reiterated my prediction about Yak from before the season started – that it would take 20 games or so for Yak to throw off the shackles of last years sophomore slump, to figure out how to make his game work in the context of a team game.

    But he’ll do it, and once he does, I told my buddy we’re going to be marvelling night after night at the fact that the only way we will know that Yak’s shot was yet another goal was the vapour trail leading from his stick straight into the back of the net.

    Bank on it.

    Pessimist indeed!

  29. Aitch says:

    Regarding Yakupov… I don’t know if it was Eakins’ talks with him this summer or if someone else turned on the light bulb above his head, but he is a different player this year. It’s hard to believe that this is the same kid who just last year was talking about hitting as if that wasn’t what he was playing hockey for. At the time I wondered if something got lost in translation, but watching him this year, I don’t think it was. But he gets it now and as soon as he can get that scope lined up on his stick and start hitting the net, he might burst out, as he’s becoming a bit of a forechecking beast. Combine that with an engine that doesn’t have a low gear and he’s also busting his butt to get back and back check. He doesn’t always get in the right position (see the Schenn goal from Philly) but he’s miles from the player he was last season.

  30. J-Bo says:

    So LT you think Fasth has taken the reigns? Do tell…

  31. G Money says:

    Aitch,

    I think it’s the message getting through to Yak that he needs to play a certain way to be successful in the NHL. Through Jr, he’s been so much more talented than everyone on the ice that he hasn’t had to defer to anyone, on his team or the other team.

    So it takes time to make it happen. That’s doubly true for a sniper like Yak, who HAS TO rely on other players to make some plays in order for him to get the puck in a scoring position.

    Add in the language, culture, coach changes, short season, etc. issues and struggling should be expected.

    People have been quick to throw the ‘bust’ word around, but if you look at the history of Top 3 picks, the #1 reason for players being a bust is that they ended up not having the desire to be the best. Guys like Yashin and Stefan spring to mind, or even Oilers pick Bonsignore even though he was actually picked at #4.

    I don’t see that issue with Yak, never have. His love of the game, his willingness to work his ass off, and his desire to be “the guy” seems evident to me.

    That’s the reason I’ve stuck to my guns that he’s going to be a success. The rest of it (“doesn’t have the speed”, “doesn’t have the hockey sense”, etc) has always struck me as nonsense – you don’t become the consensus #1 OV, no matter how weak the draft, without having those things in spades.

    After that, it’s the desire to be the best that matters, and Yak has that, without a doubt.

  32. RMGS says:

    A week ago they were in 24th, and now the Oilers sit in 18th in the Score-Adjusted Fenwick standings, almost sawing off the attempted shots battle.

    In five more games we’ll have the best picture using SAF to predict points earned at the end of the year.

  33. Adam Wu says:

    G Money:
    HiddenDarts,

    Lately I’ve somehow become associated with the voice of pessimism.

    Other times over the last two seasons, when the team has been beaten up but the signs underneath were encouraging, I’ve been accused of being a blind optimist for pointing those out.

    Must be doing something right!

    You’ve been blindly optimistic about your association with the voice of pessimism….

  34. Pouzar says:

    Crazy Sidebar:

    Man does Joel Quenneville ever shelter the Keith/Seabrook pairing. They do well against the lesser competition (CorsiRel) while the Hjalmarsson/Oduya are the getting the toughs big time.

  35. G Money says:

    RMGS,

    I agree with the concept of adjusting the fancy stats to account for score situation.

    I’ve only made one attempt to dig into the basis and rationale for this particular calculation of Score Adjustment i.e. try to understand and get a feel for the validity of the equation, and I recognize that it’s a weird thing to talk about the ‘gut feel’ of an equation, but anyone who’s done numeric modelling will recognize what I’m talking about!, and I still don’t get the warm fuzzies about this particular calculation.

  36. G Money says:

    Adam Wu: You’ve been blindly optimistic about your association with the voice of pessimism….

    You mean the voice of blind pessimism!

  37. blainer says:

    Pouzar:
    And to think Nuge is going to get even bigger and stronger yet. And he will.

    I mentioned in the last thread that I think he needs to be a driver of his own line.
    I know the sample size is small but he looks like he can do it. Love Pouliot on that line.
    If we can get Nuge and Hall to be drivers on their respective lines we really have taken the next step.
    People were clamoring for Nuge/Ebs/Yak to step it up in Hall’s absence and I think they did.

    Now re-sign Petry.

    Hey Pouzar.. well said. When Hall comes back do you think Eakins breaks up the band. Maybe play Poo with RNH and Yak.. and at home try Dry with Hall and Ebs..

  38. Woodguy says:

    BUF has a weaker Dcorps.

    NYR were missing 3 starters including the very, very good McDonaugh.

    The Oilers did very well against these weaker Ds.

    That’s why I had high hopes for the PHI game. They have the worst D in the NHL.

    Next up is NAS, who have one of the best Dcorps in the league.

    It will be a real test.

    I liked what I saw last night.

    The key is to keep doing the right things (especially in regards to the breakouts) when it isn’t as easy to gain the neutral zone and ozone.

    Progress in the process is nice to see.

  39. blainer says:

    G Money:
    Aitch,

    I think it’s the message getting through to Yak that he needs to play a certain way to be successful in the NHL.Through Jr, he’s been so much more talented than everyone on the ice that he hasn’t had to defer to anyone, on his team or the other team.
    I have to say that I have used the bust word alot about Yak as I have believed he didnt have the talent for a number 1 pick. He has been making me re think my opinion. He is playing much better defensively and if just a few of the shots he is taking go in he will gain confidence. I will admit I need more time to assess this player before he is traded. Keep it goin Yak..

    So it takes time to make it happen.That’s doubly true for a sniper like Yak, who HAS TO rely on other players to make some plays in order for him to get the puck in a scoring position.

    Add in the language, culture, coach changes, short season, etc. issues and struggling should be expected.

    People have been quick to throw the ‘bust’ word around, but if you look at the history of Top 3 picks, the #1 reason for players being a bust is that they ended up not having the desire to be the best.Guys like Yashin and Stefan spring to mind, or even Oilers pick Bonsignore even though he was actually picked at #4.

    I don’t see that issue with Yak, never have.His love of the game, his willingness to work his ass off, and his desire to be “the guy” seems evident to me.

    That’s the reason I’ve stuck to my guns that he’s going to be a success.The rest of it (“doesn’t have the speed”, “doesn’t have the hockey sense”, etc) has always struck me as nonsense – you don’t become the consensus #1 OV, no matter how weak the draft, without having those things in spades.

    After that, it’s the desire to be the best that matters, and Yak has that, without a doubt.

  40. Dicky94 says:

    Have a feeling Yak is going to light the Preds up. They will be too focused on The Nuge who has a story about him on almost all the sports channels this morning. When Hall gets back this team will take off.

  41. blainer says:

    G Money:
    Aitch,

    I think it’s the message getting through to Yak that he needs to play a certain way to be successful in the NHL.Through Jr, he’s been so much more talented than everyone on the ice that he hasn’t had to defer to anyone, on his team or the other team.
    I have to say that I have used the bust word alot about Yak as I have believed he didnt have the talent for a number 1 pick. He has been making me re think my opinion. He is playing much better defensively and if just a few of the shots he is taking go in he will gain confidence. I will admit I need more time to assess this player before he is traded. Keep it goin Yak..

    So it takes time to make it happen.That’s doubly true for a sniper like Yak, who HAS TO rely on other players to make some plays in order for him to get the puck in a scoring position.

    Add in the language, culture, coach changes, short season, etc. issues and struggling should be expected.

    People have been quick to throw the ‘bust’ word around, but if you look at the history of Top 3 picks, the #1 reason for players being a bust is that they ended up not having the desire to be the best.Guys like Yashin and Stefan spring to mind, or even Oilers pick Bonsignore even though he was actually picked at #4.

    I don’t see that issue with Yak, never have.His love of the game, his willingness to work his ass off, and his desire to be “the guy” seems evident to me.

    That’s the reason I’ve stuck to my guns that he’s going to be a success.The rest of it (“doesn’t have the speed”, “doesn’t have the hockey sense”, etc) has always struck me as nonsense – you don’t become the consensus #1 OV, no matter how weak the draft, without having those things in spades.

    After that, it’s the desire to be the best that matters, and Yak has that, without a doubt.

    G Money,

    Yak is changing my mind. I was in the bust group but if he keeps his play up the goals will come. Still need more time to assess him before trading him. I said we need at least 20 games and he is playing better every game. Keep it up yak

  42. Pouzar says:

    blainer: Hey Pouzar.. well said. When Hall comes back do you think Eakins breaks up the band. Maybe play Poo with RNH and Yak.. and at home try Dry with Hall and Ebs..

    I think he breaks up the band. How he does it? Not sure. I keep the 1st line together as it’s currently constituted and add Hall to Arco and Yak. I think Arco and Yak are really starting to figure one another out and adding Hall gives them a possession driver that they need cause neither of those guys are adept at breaking into the zone with speed.

  43. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy:
    BUF has a weaker Dcorps.

    NYR were missing 3 starters including the very, very good McDonaugh.

    The Oilers did very well against these weaker Ds.

    That’s why I had high hopes for the PHI game. They have the worst D in the NHL.

    Next up is NAS, who have one of the best Dcorps in the league.

    It will be a real test.

    I liked what I saw last night.

    The key is to keep doing the right things (especially in regards to the breakouts) when it isn’t as easy to gain the neutral zone and ozone.

    Progress in the process is nice to see.

    This is why I love splitting up Hall into his own line. Josi/Weber are beasts but they can’t play against a Poo-Nuge-Ebs line AND Hall-Arco-Yak line all night. This is all made possible of course by Yak’s developing game on both ends.

  44. rickithebear says:

    Phase1 Pt1 Age 18-20 Post draft
    Since05-06 lockout.
    #8 Toews .84 PPG
    ————————————————-
    #10 Hall .76 PPG
    #10 Duschene .76
    #12Tavares .75
    #13 RNH .74 PPG
    #13 Mckinnon .74 PPG
    ———————————–
    #17 Gagner .59
    #20 Landeskog .58
    #26 Perron .54
    #27 Galchenyuk .52
    #28 Benn .50
    #28 Yakupov .50
    #28 Hubredeau .50
    #31 J. Staal .49
    #31 Monohan .49
    —————————————–

    Phase 1 PT2 age 21-23 core development
    Since 05-06 lockout
    #1 Crosby 1.30
    #2 Spezza 1.31
    #3 OVI 1.29
    #4 Malkin 1.2
    ———————————————–
    #5 Stamkos 1.16
    #6 Hall 1.07
    #8 Tavares1.03
    #9 E. Staal 1.02
    ———————————————–
    #10 Getzlaf .96
    #10 P. Kane .96
    #13 Seguin .95
    #14 toews .93
    #15 Kopitar .92
    ——————————————————–
    #18 Nash .86
    #18 Eberle .86
    #20 B. Ryan .85
    #21 Benn .84
    #23 Johanssen .82
    ——————————————————-
    #26 Duschene .80
    #28 Couture .77
    #34 Giroux .73
    ——————————————————-
    #37 Krejci .70
    #42 Tarasenko .68
    #47 Parise .65
    #50 Perron .64

    PHase 2 PT1 Age 24-26 Mass strength
    #1 Crosby 1.43
    #2 Heatley 1.27
    #3 Malkin 1.20
    —————————————
    #4 Gabork 1.15
    #5 OVI 1.13
    #6 Lecavalier 1.13
    #7 Giroux 1.10
    #8 Semin 1.09
    #8 Zetterberg 1.09
    —————————————
    #11 Parise 1.03
    #13 P. Kane 1.02
    #16 Neal .99
    ————————————
    #20 Perry.96
    #21 E. staal; Hemsky; H. sedin; D. Sedin .95
    #25 Getzlaf .94
    #26 Nash; Cammalerri; Toews .93

    RNH; HAll; Tavares. with weaker teams suggests a potential .9 to 1.1 Forward.

    Eberele in the Nash: Ryan production.

    Yak draft starting to look like gagner’s draft for forwards.

    he could be Benn or Perron or Staal for production.

  45. fifthcartel says:

    Another positive is Yakupov is now leading the team in shots. He seems way better when he’s not hesitating and deferring to his linemates. I highly doubt Yak is a 5% shooter either, so his point total should be a bit higher.

  46. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar:
    Crazy Sidebar:

    Man does Joel Quenneville ever shelter the Keith/Seabrook pairing. They do well against the lesser competition (CorsiRel) while the Hjalmarsson/Oduya are the getting the toughs big time.

    He did that a last year too.

    Fayne is the Oilers’ Hjarlmasson.

  47. blainer says:

    Pouzar: I think he breaks up the band. How he does it? Not sure. I keep the 1st line together as it’s currently constituted and add Hall to Arco and Yak. I think Arco and Yak are really starting to figure one another out and adding Hall gives them a possession driver that they need cause neither of those guys are adept at breaking into the zone with speed.

    Ya i could go along with that too. Hall had chemistry with Arco on the farm and things seem to be going well with Yak too. Agreed that splitting them up is good but I also like Hall with Ebs.

  48. Woodguy says:

    Pouzar: This is why I love splitting up Hall into his own line. Josi/Weber are beasts but they can’t play against a Poo-Nuge-Ebs line AND Hall-Arco-Yak line all night. This is all made possible of course by Yak’s developing game on both ends.

    Exactly.

    I suggested in the GDT yesterday.

    Sakic and Forsberg gave opposing teams fits in terms of match up.

    Played together sometimes too.

    Ideal.

  49. Pouzar says:

    Woodguy: Exactly.

    I suggested in the GDT yesterday.

    Sakic and Forsberg gave opposing teams fits in terms of match up.

    Played together sometimes too.

    Ideal.

    Very apt comparison. I want Nuge with the puck on his stick more. He was fantastic yesterday.

  50. russ99 says:

    One game vs. a team so depleted on defense that they gave a broken-down Kaberle a tryout and we’re going to break up the top line?

    C’mon. Eakins has done this a few times before and each time it was a failure.

    Also, who’d center Hall and Yak? Surely not Arcobello… Maybe it would be something to try for a few games when we eventually make that #2C trade, but even then we lose too much with Hall – RNH – Eberle broken up – especially if all three are playing well which hasn’t happened much this year.

    Finally we’re getting some secondary scoring, but that won’t be there every night, so you need your best players to push the river.

  51. Pouzar says:

    russ99,

    We have ONE known river pusher on this team.
    It’s quite possible now we are developing a 2nd one (Nuge). This along with the development of
    Yak and Pouliot on that first line makes it a no brainer to at least try. I was firmly in the camp of Hall-Nuge-Ebs but with progress comes ability to tinker with the lines.

  52. linkfromhyrule says:

    russ99,

    When Eakins tried splitting that line up before, it was in an effort to provide more balanced scoring in the top six. He was trying to spark more offense, as opposed to now where he should be trying to take advantage of the increased production.

    There is a reason Kane-Toews, Malkin-Crosby, etc. do not play on the same line. The Nuge looks like he is really coming around. Once Drai matures a bit, maybe a Hall-Drai-Yak line? Arco is a fine fill in for now. He has more of a nose for offense than people give him credit for.

  53. Yeti says:

    Woodguy,

    I know that you feel duty bound to blow sweet Arcobello smoke rings since you pumped his tires earlier this summer, but surely throwing Arco out against other team’s #1 lines – even with the presence of Hall on his wing – is asking for trouble? Then throw in the mercurial Yakupov on the other wing and we have issues. In short, I love the idea, but I’m not sure the players are there for this … yet.

    P.S. the smoke-rings thing is just joking around.

  54. fifthcartel says:

    I feel like the lines will be Pouliot-RNH-Perron/Purcell, Hall-Jokinen-Eberle in a couple weeks.

  55. G Money says:

    russ99: One game vs. a team so depleted on defense that they gave a broken-down Kaberle a tryout and we’re going to break up the top line?

    You know I’m firmly in the camp of “it doesn’t mean much until you can do it against the West”.

    That said, Nuge is looking more like a man than a toddler every single game, and that includes against good teams. He didn’t accomplish much against Vancouver early, but was the best player on the ice for the Oilers against Nsh and Bos.

    If the EbsNugePoo line looks good against Nsh, that will bode extremely well for the rest of the season.

    If they don’t, then it’s back to square one.

  56. 9,998,383,750,001 says:

    I think what we saw last night is our new level. Next stop: rough patches.

    Eakins is going to oscillate between stud and dud like a pair of enchanted green-eared moth–eagles cradling a glass-eyed hobbit and his fat friend with nine noisy aeronautical Nazgûl hooting in hot pursuit. I foresee the rag-wing snapping-turtles swallowing nothing but dense tufts of air and a maybe a few tail feathers in their frantic neck-strikes at the ballistic tumbleweeds of no fixed trajectory or persistent polish.

    ———

    Enchanted green-eared moth–eagles?

    Yes, these appear in the express edition. In this version, Gandalf snaps his hand out of Bilbo’s window a second time and snatches up two bulbous, green fireflies, then he kicks away Sam’s and Frodo’s walking sticks and hisses “fly, you fools!” while breathing on the small bugs clenched inside his fist.

    Frodo: “But where are we going? We don’t know the way!”

    Gandalf: “Never you trouble your small hobbit minds. Over the gate and into the mountain, the mountain of fire. That’s as much as you need to know. Simply drop the ring into the hot lava and you’ll be enjoying a nice cup of tea beside the Fountains of Ecthelion after the best second breakfast you’ve ever been served.”

    Gandalf leans over and whispers in Samwise’s ear.

    Samwise: “Why Mr Gandalf, I would not do such a thing—not to anyone—not ever!”

    The room goes black as Gandalf swells up to twice his normal size. “I am not some loving old greybeard. You will do as I say.”

    Samwise: “Alright then, if we get there and he won’t chuck the silly trinket into the fire—you would never be so foolish, would you Mr Frodo?—I’ll say the magic word.” Samwise pouts, and wonders why the magic word names a fruit. Then another question forms in his mind. Motioning with his hobbit finger for Gandalf to bend down, Samwise stretches up and whispers something into Gandalf’s ear.

    Gandalf: “No, it only breaks the spell on Frodo’s meagle. If Frodo spoke the word, it would break the spell on your meagle. The difference is, you know the word and he does not. So be off with you both! And button your tunics. The westward jet-stream is bracingly cold at this time of year.”

    As Sam mounts his now greatly enlarged moth–eagle—it’s the body of an eagle with the head of a moth—he twists a large ring on his finger and a bright display emerges above his hand, kind of like the aurora borealis in HUD mode. He drags the floating display to a more convenient position with the forefinger of his other hand, then he quickly inputs his query in hobbit sign language using both hands and some facial expressions, which seem to involve wrinkling the nose in place of using a spacebar. Hobbits! You can learn all there is to know about their ways in a month, and yet after a hundred years they still make you giggle.

    “Good thing we’re not walking, hey Mr Frodo”, says Sam as he scans an ominous results page.

    “Yes, Sam” says Frodo whose own query returns more than he bargained for.

    As the muscular meagles hop up onto the window sill Gandalf calls out his final words of advice.

    “The meagles catch most their meals airborne, so there won’t be many ground stops. If you’re lucky Galadriel will scramble some Lembas Drones as you cross into her realm. Don’t be bashful—even though it’s quite filling, take all you can. The great advantage of Elvish bumble-breads is that they’re highly digestible, so you don’t get caught with your pants down—so to speak—on a long flight with, uh, precarious facilities. And Frodo, do chuck the ring into the fire when you get your chance—the tea service of Ecthelion is not to be missed. It just wouldn’t be the same for Samwise without you. And Samwise, don’t make me turn you into something unnatural if you refuse to speak the word should the need arise.”

    Frodo catches a glimpse of Samwise blanching at the word “unnatural”. He’s a true friend, but he fears the unnatural something fierce. No doubt he’ll say the word if he has to, but he’ll likely do something stupid like try to catch me as I fall through the air, and then we both go into the fire. Still, the ring will be hard to part with. I’ve grown so fond of it already in such a short time.

    Right as Frodo seats his aviation goggles and braces for a powerful leap into the black sky, a cascade of earnest knocks echo loudly from the front door.

    Frodo [panicked, craning his neck to face Gandalf]: “Is it them? Are they here?”

    Gandalf [even more panicked]: “No, it’s worse, much worse! It’s Merry and Pippin! Fly, you fools, fly!”

    Up, up and away they go on empty stomachs—and a good thing, too, for the first five minutes—though not nearly so empty as they both supposed.

  57. Showerhead says:

    9,998,383,750,001

    Well, all I can say is that I am glad that happened.

  58. LMHF#1 says:

    Maybe the reason I’m not so optimistic is because I watched parts of the Buffalo game but slept through the NYR game. Left a “worst rec league game ever” feeling that hasn’t left yet.

  59. Showerhead says:

    fifthcartel:
    Another positive is Yakupov is now leading the team in shots. He seems way better when he’s not hesitating and deferring to his linemates. I highly doubt Yak is a 5% shooter either, so his point total should be a bit higher.

    I can’t help but agree with this one. There are two things about Yak’s game that drive me nuts:
    1) when he gains the zone with speed and then slams on the brakes high along the wall
    2) when he is over-deferential to his linemates

    As long as he continues to push the envelope and is hard on the puck he is on the path to success, IMO. It really does look like the game has begun to slow down for him and I can’t wait to see where this goes.

  60. Numenius says:

    linkfromhyrule:
    russ99,

    When Eakins tried splitting that line up before, it was in an effort to provide more balanced scoring in the top six. He was trying to spark more offense, as opposed to now where he should be trying to take advantage of the increased production.

    There is a reason Kane-Toews, Malkin-Crosby, etc. do not play on the same line. The Nuge looks like he is really coming around. Once Drai matures a bit, maybe a Hall-Drai-Yak line? Arco is a fine fill in for now. He has more of a nose for offense than people give him credit for.

    Yes, I’m completely with you on this.

  61. Showerhead says:

    Woodguy:
    BUF has a weaker Dcorps.

    NYR were missing 3 starters including the very, very good McDonaugh.

    The Oilers did very well against these weaker Ds.

    That’s why I had high hopes for the PHI game. They have the worst D in the NHL.

    Next up is NAS, who have one of the best Dcorps in the league.

    It will be a real test.

    I liked what I saw last night.

    The key is to keep doing the right things (especially in regards to the breakouts) when it isn’t as easy to gain the neutral zone and ozone.

    Progress in the process is nice to see.

    Completely on board with this re: procedural progress. They are making the types of decisions and playing the type of consistent hockey to win those winnable schedule-victories. That is real and valid progress for this team, but it is also important to keep things in context and not start acting like Buffalo or New York have a Weber/Josi pairing kicking around right now.

  62. Showerhead says:

    If I may add a thought, I have such bittersweet feelings about Draisaitl.

    Sweet: he comes exactly as advertised. Already, at 18, he’s big enough and smart enough to protect the puck. His vision is terrific – his passes are crisp, clever, and move the puck towards players in good position. Finally, he seems to have a sense for positioning and for learning the X’s and O’s – I really do believe he is going to be the sort of player with the famed “3 years of experience” vs. “1 year three times” that we cheer for.

    Bitter: he’s just slow enough, just young enough, and just minimally impactful enough that you really wish there was an AHL type option for a guy like him. If MacT had been able to add a legitimate NHL centre, not only would it have helped the team but it would have given Edmonton a slightly better window in developing Draisaitl who is clearly on the long-term path to becoming a very good hockey player.

    In the end, it’s almost as if all of those things that he’s good at make me feel slightly more upset that they kept him up. He’s good ‘enough’, and he’s smart, but in a perfect world he’d be having a major impact in the AHL instead of a minor one in the show. (And yes, I know they can’t put him there. I’m just thinking out loud.)

  63. RMGS says:

    G Money:
    RMGS,

    I agree with the concept of adjusting the fancy stats to account for score situation.

    I’ve only made one attempt to dig into the basis and rationale for this particular calculation of Score Adjustment i.e. try to understand and get a feel for the validity of the equation, and I recognize that it’s a weird thing to talk about the ‘gut feel’ of an equation, but anyone who’s done numeric modelling will recognize what I’m talking about!, and I still don’t get the warm fuzzies about this particular calculation.

    Adjusting Fenwick for score state is really just a way to increase the sample size for what is the shot stat that best correlates with scoring chances, thus goals, thus wins. With increased sample size comes increased confidence in its predictive power.

  64. "Frank The Dog" says:

    blainer: Hey Pouzar.. well said. When Hall comes back do you think Eakins breaks up the band. Maybe play Poo with RNH and Yak.. and at home try Dry with Hall and Ebs..

    DO.NOT.PUT.Yak.WITH.RNH.UNTIL.FURTHER.NOTICE.

    imho: Nuge and Ebs are better together than apart. Nuge and Yak are worse together than apart. Poo, Nuge and Ebs are a scoring threat, and it gives Nuge the confidence to step up his game rather than serve Chance.

    Arco and Drai both work better with Yak than Nuge. Put Chance and Yak with Arco or Drai, whoever is the better C on the day or in the game situation. Or, even, swap Poo and Chance between lines 1 & 2, Arco and Drai between lines 2 and “free”. That gives the weakest scoring line Perron, Drai/Arco and Purcell!

  65. Showerhead says:

    RMGS: Adjusting Fenwick for score state is really just a way to increase the sample size for what is the shot stat that best correlates with scoring chances, thus goals, thus wins. With increased sample size comes increased confidence in its predictive power.

    Well, you’re technically reducing the sample size, aren’t you? By adjusting for score state, you’re taking some of the non-applicable shots out of the equation and choosing only the most context-specific shots. You’re increasing precision, not sample size, the way I see it.

  66. Dicky94 says:

    fifthcartel,

    I hope not. Watched him with the Jets last year and was terrible. Not surprised he has no points this year. He couldn’t score on a soccer net.

  67. "Frank The Dog" says:

    Dicky94:
    Have a feeling Yak is going to light the Preds up. They will be too focused on The Nuge who has a story about him on almost all the sports channels this morning. When Hall gets back this team will take off.

    Don’t say that too loud. I’m hoping this is a trap game for the Preds myself. Put them on their heels and keep them there.

  68. RMGS says:

    Showerhead: Well, you’re technically reducing the sample size, aren’t you? By adjusting for score state, you’re taking some of the non-applicable shots out of the equation and choosing only the most context-specific shots. You’re increasing precision, not sample size, the way I see it.

    Actually, the witchcraft behind Score-Adjusted Fenwick is that it includes all Fenwick events. Instead of discounting certain Fenwick events because of score-effects (e.g. Fenwick when down by two), it includes those events by weighting them differently.

  69. Showerhead says:

    RMGS: Actually, the witchcraft behind Score-Adjusted Fenwick is that it includes all Fenwick events. Instead of discounting certain Fenwick events because of score-effects (e.g. Fenwick when down by two), it includes those events by weighting them differently.

    Whoa. Wait, what? Who is the magician deciding how much weight everything gets? Where can I learn these magics?

  70. G Money says:

    Showerhead,

    LOL. You guys are funny.

    It isn’t witchcraft, there is a published formula and also an article explaining the rationale behind the formula.

    However, as I posted earlier in the thread, I’ve dug into the formula and I’m not convinced it is all that good. Or rather, I’m not convinced that the adjusted formula provides a result that is a better representative of the real world than the unadjusted Fenwick scores.

    Saying “bigger sample size” (which is the original concept) is not really a valid answer, because increasing sample size only matters if you increase samples that are meaningful and weight those additional samples correctly.

    That’s what the formula purports to do but I’m not convinced.

  71. RMGS says:

    The wizard is known as Tulsky in some parts. Beware his powers.

    Adjusting for Score Effects to Improve our Predictions

  72. Showerhead says:

    I used to be a person who knew things.

    *inhale*

    What else have I missed? Has Rob Schremp figured it all out yet? Did Marc Antoine Pouliot win two Calder trophies or three? Where have all the mullets gone? Did Sheldon Souray pan out? What about that guy with the mullet? Seriously I need to know about the mullets. Mullets!

    AND GUYS DID THEY BUILD A SAN FERNANDO STATUE YET OR WHAT

    *exhale*

  73. Showerhead says:

    RMGS:
    The wizard is known as Tulsky in some parts. Beware his powers.

    Adjusting for Score Effects to Improve our Predictions

    Ok, phew. Thank you for this. It seems to me that by using average times spent in each game state instead of exact times spent by a particular team, some of the potential for increased accuracy is lost.

    In the end, I’m impressed by an overall increase in predictive power by SAF, even if the difference is quite small. I would have expected there to be enough team to team variance in coaching strategies when up/down by 1/2 for things to get a bit noisy.

    One way or another, thanks for bringing me up to 2012. I wonder how How I Met Your Mother will end.

  74. G Money says:

    Showerhead: What else have I missed? Has Rob Schremp figured it all out yet? Did Marc Antoine Pouliot win two Calder trophies or three? Where have all the mullets gone? Did Sheldon Souray pan out? What about that guy with the mullet? Seriously I need to know about the mullets. Mullets!

    1 – Berlin Wall came down. Americans voted a black guy into the Presidency. Whaaaaaat?

    2 – Of course. I hear he’s shacked up with Souray.

    3 – Three. He was so impressive the first year, they changed the rules to allow for repeats. I hear LT is now a candidate to replace Bettman.

    4 – Bell bottom jeans were back for a while. Mullets have to be next.

    5 – See #2.

  75. G Money says:

    Showerhead: It seems to me that by using average times spent in each game state instead of exact times spent by a particular team, some of the potential for increased accuracy is lost.

    That’s EXACTLY where I have a problem with this formula.

    Using the Fenwick differential vs the average for the league seems to me to completely overwrite a substantial part of the individual teams Fenwick, but I’m not sure the best way to express this or improve it. But it strikes me as wrong and that’s why I’m not yet a believer in the formula.

    The results so far in terms of predictiveness don’t look that good to me either, but of course it’s early, so that could easily change. But even the correlations they mention in the article give cause for concern.

  76. RMGS says:

    Showerhead: Ok, phew. Thank you for this. It seems to me that by using average times spent in each game state instead of exact times spent by a particular team, some of the potential for increased accuracy is lost.

    In the end, I’m impressed by an overall increase in predictive power by SAF, even if the difference is quite small. I would have expected there to be enough team to team variance in coaching strategies when up/down by 1/2 for things to get a bit noisy.

    One way or another, thanks for bringing me up to 2012. I wonder how How I Met Your Mother will end.

    Both your points are valid and acknowledged by the witch himself. There are other issues – e.g. home/road splits. Fortunately, others are chipping away at what may seem like splitting hairs (lots of spare time in mom’s basement, I guess): A Better Way to Compute Score-Adjusted Fenwick

  77. Lowetide says:

    Great thread, highlighted by Showerhead’s minute by minute updating of his Tulsky experience AND by his perfect framing of the Draisaitl issue. Always like to see the big brains return for a visit, and Showerhead’s a piss cutter with this stuff.

  78. OilClog says:

    Why does Sportsnet employ Spector..

    He’s on Tim and Sid, and of course the Rangers lost the game the Oilers didn’t win it in specs view. Does he ever have to deal with the crap he continually spews forth?

    If he knows anything about hockey other then pissing off the masses.. Has this guy ever had anything positive to report? Negative Nancy News at the top of the hour with Mark Spector.

  79. bendelson says:

    G Money: 1 – Berlin Wall came down.Americans voted a black guy into the Presidency.Whaaaaaat?

    2 – Of course.I hear he’s shacked up with Souray.

    3 – Three.He was so impressive the first year, they changed the rules to allow for repeats.I hear LT is now a candidate to replace Bettman.

    4 – Bell bottom jeans were back for a while.Mullets have to be next.

    5 – See #2.

    Now wait just a minute… Mullets were OUT of style?
    Nonsense.

  80. Showerhead says:

    RMGS: Both your points are valid and acknowledged by the witch himself. There are other issues – e.g. home/road splits.Fortunately, others are chipping away at what may seem like splitting hairs (lots of spare time in mom’s basement, I guess): A Better Way to Compute Score-Adjusted Fenwick

    Oh, this Micah fellow’s article is terrific. Intuitively I like the separation of up/down by 2 and 3, and the filtering out of average ice times by looking at total events is great. It also seems to show in the yet-slightly-more-predictive correlation numbers.

    When folks post SAF on here, do they usually use Tulsky’s version or Micah’s? I mean, I don’t expect they’re wildly different but I’d just be curious to know.

  81. Showerhead says:

    Lowetide:
    Great thread, highlighted by Showerhead’s minute by minute updating of his Tulsky experience AND by his perfect framing of the Draisaitl issue. Always like to see the big brains return for a visit, and Showerhead’s a piss cutter with this stuff.

    Ha! The last time I remember the term piss cutter from you, it applied to the Sedins or possibly Ryan Kesler. Do you revile me so?

    (Thanks for the kind words.)

  82. Lowetide says:

    Showerhead: Ha! The last time I remember the term piss cutter from you, it applied to the Sedins or possibly Ryan Kesler. Do you revile me so?

    (Thanks for the kind words.)

    Among the highest compliments. 🙂

  83. frjohnk says:

    One of the things I noticed last night was that the oilers D were doing a pretty good job with making good pinches in the offensive zone. Most of the time the puck stayed in and if it didn’t, the oilers forwards were actually coming back so there were not any odd man rushes that would lead to grade A scoring chances.

    Eakins is probably thinking “about friggin time!”

  84. RMGS says:

    Showerhead: Oh, this Micah fellow’s article is terrific. Intuitively I like the separation of up/down by 2 and 3, and the filtering out of average ice times by looking at total events is great. It also seems to show in the yet-slightly-more-predictive correlation numbers.

    When folks post SAF on here, do they usually use Tulsky’s version or Micah’s? I mean, I don’t expect they’re wildly different but I’d just be curious to know.

    The SAF standings usually posted use Tulsky’s formula. Tables using Micah’s are in the works, I think.

  85. Dicky94 says:

    “Frank The Dog”,

    Ya them and Calgary will eventually collapse once they remember they really do suck. Reality will set in soon for them as soon as tomorrow, opening a spot for the Oil in the playoffs.

  86. spoiler says:

    Showerhead: Ok, phew. Thank you for this. It seems to me that by using average times spent in each game state instead of exact times spent by a particular team, some of the potential for increased accuracy is lost.

    In the end, I’m impressed by an overall increase in predictive power by SAF, even if the difference is quite small. I would have expected there to be enough team to team variance in coaching strategies when up/down by 1/2 for things to get a bit noisy.

    One way or another, thanks for bringing me up to 2012. I wonder how How I Met Your Mother will end.

    Yep.

    And scoring state does some weird things. I don’t think we have score adjustments figured out yet. For eg in the LA-Van game Saturday night, LA enters the third period with a 4-0 lead. They spend the next ten minutes outshooting Van by something like 12-1 culminating in a 5th goal.

    I’d much rather use CorsiOn… no Rel, no Close to get a better idea of where the puck was during the game–which after all was what shooting stats were supposed to tell us. If we are conparing players from the same team rather than the team as a whole, by all means use RelCorsi.

    But I don’t see any advantage to considering score effects.

    And this early in the season we want the sample size as big as possible.

  87. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Among the highest compliments.

    I always thought piss-cutter had some sort of kidney-stone reference.

    It made sense in reference to the Sedins, at least from the perspective of an Oiler fan.

  88. spoiler says:

    With regards to Yak….

    I’d like to see more intelligence with puck management. He is just ripping shots now rather than waiting for his linemates to go to the net. He would be far more effective if there were players in place for screens, deflections, rebounds and puck retrieval.

    With that shot there won’t be many clean saves. Add a crossing screen to the opposing goalie’s level of difficulty… and they won’t stand a chance.

  89. Showerhead says:

    spoiler: Yep.

    And scoring state does some weird things. I don’t think we have score adjustments figured out yet. For eg in the LA-Van game Saturday night, LA enters the third period with a 4-0 lead. They spend the next ten minutes outshooting Van by something like 12-1 culminating in a 5th goal.

    I’d much rather use CorsiOn… no Rel, no Close to get a better idea of where the puck was during the game–which after all was what shooting stats were supposed to tell us.If we are conparing players from the same team rather than the team as a whole, by all means use RelCorsi.

    But I don’t see any advantage to considering score effects.

    And this early in the season we want the sample size as big as possible.

    If you use CorsiOn, it will absolutely tell you where the puck was. I’d be very cautious ignoring score effects altogether, because they are a very real thing. The trick would be to say “LA was up 4-0 and was still rocking its CorsiOn – why?” because you know how unusual that is. The existence of score effects seems to be quite clear from Tulsky, Micah, and many others – it just seems there may yet be work to do in terms of perfecting how you quantify them.

    So yes. As in all things, observe what you observe but ask why and understand the context. I don’t think you can ignore score effects and get a very good understanding of things even with a game like the LA/VAN one you’re describing.

  90. Магия 10 says:

    Showerhead: Ha! The last time I remember the term piss cutter from you, it applied to the Sedins or possibly Ryan Kesler. Do you revile me so?

    (Thanks for the kind words.)

    Expect 100% offensive zone starts from LT.

  91. spoiler says:

    Showerhead,

    I do. I want to know whether the team got shut down the whole game or whether they were able to battle something back. I also think score effects are exaggerated… I don’t think any team feels safe with a one goal lead and is playing it that way.

  92. G Money says:

    Last night’s scoring chances from CoH:

    Oilers 17 (12 Grade A) vs Rangers 9 (5 Grade A)

    Nice to see the dangerous chances in line or exceeding the Corsi for a change.

    That said, the Oilers so far (by my calculations) sit at the following:

    In 10 games vs Likely Playoff teams: -39 (only positive three times)
    In 5 games vs Non Playoff teams: +40

    It’s great that the Oilers are finally beating up on the lousy teams, but need to start making some hay against good teams too.

    I’ll do the same with EV Corsi just to see what it looks like (I think it’s Spoiler that keeps asking about that).

  93. Showerhead says:

    I see what you’re saying in that you think that teams are either playing well enough to battle back or they’re not and I see how that would inform your perception of those teams.

    But if you take the 44% / 46% / 50% / 54% / 56% Fenwick splits from Tulsky’s article as true representations of Fenwick for Up 2 / Up 1 / Tied / Down 1 / Down 2, then there are very real score effects happening. My understanding is that those percentages come from raw counts, not interpretation, so I don’t see a lot of room left to say they don’t exist.

  94. G Money says:

    Oiler 5×5 Corsi vs Playoff Teams: 49.0%

    Oiler 5×5 Corsi vs Non Playoff Teams: 56.7%

  95. russ99 says:

    Tonight will be really interesting.

    Can we adapt our offensive game for a tough defending team, or will we play the same way: dump and cycle along the wall, which plays directly into Nashville’s strengths, especially if we focus so much on possession that we give them time to set up the 4-man defensive box

  96. G Money says:

    Showerhead,

    I 100% believe that score effects exist, and always adjust any assessment of a game’s shot metrics with the score. The game Fenwick chart on war-on-ice is a nice visual way of assessing that.

    I still choke on the concept of calculating a league wide Fenwick or Corsi, even by situation. I can ascribe no conceptual meaning to shot metrics on a league wide basis, so I can’t trust them in a calculation.

  97. Pouzar says:

    russ99,

    The game is tomorrow vs NSH

  98. Hammers says:

    You hit on a few reasons why I keep saying its the 25+ minute a night “D” is what we need more than the “C” . You shouldn’t leave Purcell out of your credits as I think he is another player doing a fantastic job and personally I think we won the trade just like Hendricks for DD . This team at best right now is still a 80-85 point team . Without that top “D” we won’t make the playoffs and they can’t wait for Nurse (5 year ) angle . When Aulie . Nikitin & Ference are in your top 6 and Schultz still hasn’t graduated even to a top 4 you have a weak “D” . Also agree on Fasht.

  99. Showerhead says:

    G Money:
    Showerhead,

    I 100% believe that score effects exist, and always adjust any assessment of a game’s shot metrics with the score.The game Fenwick chart on war-on-ice is a nice visual way of assessing that.

    I still choke on the concept of calculating a league wide Fenwick or Corsi, even by situation.I can ascribe no conceptual meaning to shot metrics on a league wide basis, so I can’t trust them in a calculation.

    Ah yeah. I imagine there is team-to-team variation. If you watch a bunch of Kings games and they continually plow teams over then that probably says a lot about them as a team.

  100. Showerhead says:

    Магия 10: Expect 100% offensive zone starts from LT.

    Ha! I wonder what cherry commenting minutes look like. This feels like a ready made joke, but all I can think of is low hanging fruit like “Sign Petry! Hall is awesome! Yakupov is Russian!” and so on and so forth.

  101. Ryan says:

    G Money:
    Oiler 5×5 Corsi vs Playoff Teams: 49.0%

    Oiler 5×5 Corsi vs Non Playoff Teams: 56.7%

    Nice. I’ve been banging on this drum for awhile… Thnx.

  102. Ryan says:

    G Money:
    Oiler 5×5 Corsi vs Playoff Teams: 49.0%

    Oiler 5×5 Corsi vs Non Playoff Teams: 56.7%

    Did you manually calculate this data or is it a available at a stat site?

  103. Hammers says:

    After reading comments I must agree that 2 games VS Buffalo & NYR doesn’t prove to much but they are wins . If Eakins is happy with his “D” right now send Marincin & Klefbom down to Nelsons Barons as this is not the way to grow your “D” . Play them or send them down . If Eakins doesn’t realize that McT should . Hell I would sooner Hunt was sitting on the bench . As for changing lines I would still like to see Hall & Purcell with Leon or Arco with Perron & Yak making up the other pair .As good as Gordons line is I can’t wait to see our other 3 lines all getting 15 + minutes as it would mean we are winning games .

  104. "Frank The Dog" says:

    Dicky94:
    “Frank The Dog”,

    Ya them and Calgary will eventually collapse once they remember they really do suck. Reality will set in soon for them as soon as tomorrow, opening a spot for the Oil in the playoffs.

    I don’t think I’m smoking whatever you’re smoking 🙂

  105. "Frank The Dog" says:

    RexLibris: I always thought piss-cutter had some sort of kidney-stone reference.

    It made sense in reference to the Sedins, at least from the perspective of an Oiler fan.

    you all probably know that a piss cutter is a type of hat that the Marines wore. I suspect that as the Marines became associated with the hat, calling someone a piss cutter became akin to comparing them to a Marine, which after WW2 was the highest of compliments.

    There’s a bunch of other interpretations but that’s the one I heard from my Dad, who was a WW2 pilot.

  106. Магия 10 says:

    Showerhead:
    I see what you’re saying in that you think that teams are either playing well enough to battle back or they’re not and I see how that would inform your perception of those teams.

    But if you take the 44% / 46% / 50% / 54% / 56% Fenwick splits from Tulsky’s article as true representations of Fenwick for Up 2 / Up 1 / Tied / Down 1 / Down 2, then there are very real score effects happening. My understanding is that those percentages come from raw counts, not interpretation, so I don’t see a lot of room left to say they don’t exist.

    Sounds like his adjustments are just scaling by context, which if anything makes a fairer comparison of unlikes.

  107. Магия 10 says:

    G Money: I still choke on the concept of calculating a league wide Fenwick or Corsi, even by situation.

    League wide shot rates by context is a straightforward concept. individual’s “on ice” for and against #s can be scaled to that. Scaled numbers are unitless, so express as % for.

  108. spoiler says:

    Showerhead:
    I see what you’re saying in that you think that teams are either playing well enough to battle back or they’re not and I see how that would inform your perception of those teams.

    But if you take the 44% / 46% / 50% / 54% / 56% Fenwick splits from Tulsky’s article as true representations of Fenwick for Up 2 / Up 1 / Tied / Down 1 / Down 2, then there are very real score effects happening. My understanding is that those percentages come from raw counts, not interpretation, so I don’t see a lot of room left to say they don’t exist.

    I am internet less right now and don’t want to read the article on my phone, but will when I get a chance. Not sure what conclusion he can reach though from those effects.

  109. bendelson says:

    “Frank The Dog”:

    There’s a bunch of other interpretations…

    Pisscutter – A very small sub standard Bull Elk or Mule Deer buck commonly found and harvested by Utah sportsmen. You know, an ungulate.

  110. G Money says:

    Ryan: Did you manually calculate this data or is it a available at a stat site?

    Manually. I pulled the CoH scoring chances into a spreadsheet, then subjectively assigned the teams as playoff (Nucks, Kings, Lightning, Caps, Preds, Bruins, Rangers) vs non-playoff (Sabres, Flyers, Canes, Yotes, Flames). Other folks’ assessments may vary, but the borderline ones (Nucks, Caps, Preds) are all looking pretty good this year.

    I pulled the Corsi from war-on-ice and plugged into the same spreadsheet.

  111. G Money says:

    Магия 10: League wide shot rates by context is a straightforward concept. individual’s “on ice” for and against #s can be scaled to that. Scaled numbers are unitless, so express as % for.

    The calculation is easy. But there is no meaning that can be ascribed to the resulting number.

    What does the statement “the league wide Fenwick was 44%” mean vs “the league wide Fenwick was 55%”? The answer is: nothing.

    There is no meaning to a league wide shot metric that I can ascribe. Because shot metrics are based on a for and against calculation, they aren’t actually a meaningful stand alone metric. Its actually more like a ranking. It’s like saying “the Oilers average position last year was 27th, based on averaging their position after every game”. That average can be calculated, sure, but it’s a meaningless number and tells you nothing at all.

    So you can take that league wide number shot metric number as well, and break it out by score situation, but it still doesn’t help to take an intuitively meaningless number and make it mean something by assessing it in different situations.

    That’s what I’m still struggling with over this calculation. I “understand” formulas by understanding each of the component pieces, understanding why the formula then manipulates those numbers and to what purpose (normalizations, relatives, scalings, etc), then understand what is trying to be achieved by combining those numbers calculationally.

    But as soon as you plug a meaningless number into a formula, I can no longer parse the result.

  112. "Frank The Dog" says:

    bendelson: Pisscutter – A very small sub standard Bull Elk or Mule Deer buck commonly found and harvested by Utah sportsmen.You know, an ungulate.

    You’re saying Yak and the Sedins are very small ungulated sub-standard mule deers?

  113. Dicky94 says:

    “Frank The Dog”,

    Lol. You should though. Then everything the Oilers do makes sense! Now what did I do with my Cheezies?

  114. bendelson says:

    "Frank The Dog":
    bendelson: Pisscutter – A very small sub standard Bull Elk or Mule Deer buck commonly found and harvested by Utah sportsmen.You know, an ungulate.

    You’re saying Yak and the Sedins are very small ungulated sub-standard mule deers?

    I don’t know what happened to the first part of your reply… Vanished!
    But to answer your original query, I have no idea how many toes Steve Smith has – you’d better ask WG.

  115. Магия 10 says:

    G Money: What does the statement “the league wide Fenwick was 44%” mean vs “the league wide Fenwick was 55%”? The answer is: nothing.

    And yet this approach can measure how much RNH pushes any possession dial.
    The league wide scoring rate for tied games means something.
    The scoring rate for being 105% of that when RNH is on tied ice means something.
    The scoring rate against being 95% of that when RNH is on tied ice means something.
    That 10% “tilt” factor is a fair measure.
    TOI-weighted averaging across ups, ties, and downs is a fair measure.

  116. rickithebear says:

    Mact chased and signed :
    by definition our most experienced D were
    Ferecne; Nikitin; Petry; Fayne; Aulie; Schultz; Marincin.
    We had 6 games with 6 of this group playing.
    5W-1L
    the 1 L a 2-0 L to vancouver with 1 ENG
    in these 6 games we gave up 11 Non ENG 1.86 GA/GM

    The other games we had Hunt; Nurse; Klefbom in the group of 6.
    1W – 7L – 1 SOL
    38 G in 9 GM 4.22 GA/gm

    Please let us run 6 of the 7 at all times!

  117. G Money says:

    Магия 10: And yet this approach can measure how much RNH pushes any possession dial.
    Theleague wide scoring rate for tied games means something.
    The scoring rate forbeing 105% of that when RNH is on tied ice means something.
    The scoring rate against being 95% of that when RNH is on tied ice means something.
    That 10% “tilt” factor is a fair measure.
    TOI-weighted averaging across ups, ties, and downs is a fair measure.

    The average 5×5 Corsi for RNH and Boyd Gordon is 50.68%.

    The average 5×5 Corsi for Huberdeau and Bjugstad is 57.46%.

    What have you learned?

  118. Gerta Rauss says:

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/11/10/off-the-top-of-my-head-good-news

    Word today is Hall, who suffered a sprained ligament in his right knee crashing into a goalpost in a 3-2 loss to the Vancouver Canucks Nov. 1, was scheduled to skate at Rexall Place. In addition to that, Oilers Now host Bob Stauffer, who is with the team in Music City, strongly suggested Hall would be back in the line-up as early as Sunday against the Arizona Coyotes

    Brownlee has a piece up at ON, among other things Hall is skating and may be back as early as Sunday

    Music!!

  119. Bruce McCurdy says:

    fifthcartel:
    Another positive is Yakupov is now leading the team in shots. He seems way better when he’s not hesitating and deferring to his linemates. I highly doubt Yak is a 5% shooter either, so his point total should be a bit higher.

    After 8 games Yakupov was 12th among the 12 regular forwards with 9 shots. Now just 7 games later he ranks 1st with 37 shots. That is a rapid, indeed extraordinary transition from last to first. It “helped” that Hall — far and away the team’s most prolific shooter — got hurt, but still Yak has cranked up his S/G rate from ~1 to ~4 over this latest stretch of games .

    Agree with the observation that a lot of those shots have been from outside home plate, but he’s nearly overpowered a couple of netminders from distance and indeed earned an assist on one such drive that resulted in a jussi rebound.

  120. Woodguy says:

    G Money: The average 5×5 Corsi for RNH and Boyd Gordon is 50.68%.

    The average 5×5 Corsi for Huberdeau and Bjugstad is 57.46%.

    What have you learned?

    I’d like some context. QualComp Relative to team and OZS%

    In smaller samples I’d like to know which teams they played against.

    A few years ago I was messing around with Shots Against/60

    This was back when a team played within their division a ton.

    I had (bribed) Gabe Desjardin compute an “Expected Shots Against/60” so I could compare it to actual to try to find a metric to measure “defensive acumen”

    The problem was DET.

    They played the other teams in their division a ton.

    They also out corsi’d the shit out of everyone like clockwork. Lidstrom was still playing 25min/gm.

    Anyhow, they wrecked my metric because every player in their division looked awful via the metric because of how good DET was.

    Context.

    It’s important.

  121. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy: Sakic and Forsberg gave opposing teams fits in terms of match up.

    BIG difference is that Sakic & Forsberg were both centres so naturally wound up on different lines. When they did get loaded up on one line it was because Forsbear was playing out of position, usually only happened late in games when Colorado was behind.

    Same argument for Crosby and Malkin; together on the PP, but centring two separate lines most of the time. Better comps for guys who can play well together or apart can be found with Toews and Kane, or with Datsyuk and Zetterberg (while they both play centre a lot, at least one of them is a chameleon).

    If Hall & RNH can approach any of those duos in actual hockey-playing ability, we’re sitting pretty, no matter that Hall can’t play C.

  122. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: I always thought piss-cutter had some sort of kidney-stone reference.

    It made sense in reference to the Sedins, at least from the perspective of an Oiler fan.

    Piss cutter means top drawer, a really outstanding something. My Dad’s phrase, so it could be anything from a valve to a type of wood.

  123. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy: I had (bribed) Gabe Desjardin compute an “Expected Shots Against/60″ so I could compare it to actual to try to find a metric to measure “defensive acumen”

    Was looking for context specific Expected Shots Against/60 (and For/60 as well where context is not symmetric) and expressing actuals as % of expected Shots.

    Yeah, it’s a hard problem even with the numbers.

  124. Gerta Rauss says:

    Bruce McCurdy: one such drive that resulted in a jussi rebound.

    I see what you did there Bruce..:)

  125. Marc says:

    Bruce McCurdy:

    Agree with the observation that a lot of those shots have been from outside home plate, but he’s nearly overpowered a couple of netminders from distance and indeed earned an assist on one such drive that resulted in a jussi rebound.

    I’ve been wondering if the coaches have told him to just put it on net if he doesn’t have support when he enters the OZ. It’s not just him either, I’ve noticed a couple of players put long unscreened shots on goal shortly after they enter the zone in the past few games. It’s usually where there is no obvious pass and they’d be outnumbered in the corner on a dump and chase.

    Where the goalie holds on to such a shot, it leads to an OZ faceoff. This seems a better outcome than holding the puck at the top of the OZ and waiting for support to arrive, as there’s probably a lower risk of a turn over at the top of the OZ leading to an odd man rush. And it’s also better than dumping it in and immediately losing possession.

  126. Bruce McCurdy says:

    BTW, Micah’s last name is McCurdy, bringing to three the known number of McCurdys writing about hockey, Travis McCurdy being the other. Never ‘eard of either of them before. Not that common a name, so surprising to find so many of them in a relatively small community.

  127. Woodguy says:

    To speak to Gabe’s character for a second.

    He’s a busy man and didn’t really have time to do what I was asking so I tried to pay for his time.

    He agreed, but specified that I donate the money to his favorite charity which which deals with education in Central America. (El Salvador iirc)

    The world needs more Gabes.

  128. Lloyd B. says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    DO. NOT. RUSH. THE. FRANCHISE. Short term gain (maybe) for long term pain. To quote WG. Because Oilers. Noooooo !!!!!!!!!

  129. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: Piss cutter means top drawer, a really outstanding something. My Dad’s phrase, so it could be anything from a valve to a type of wood.

    One of those Ye Olde Saskatchewan phrases, then. I see. 😉

  130. Gerta Rauss says:

    Lloyd B.,

    The initial diagnosis was 2-4 weeks-Sunday is 2 weeks

  131. Dicky94 says:

    I see Chase is skating on a line with Quennevillie and Hawryluk of the Wheat Kings in the Subway series. Really hope it’s foreshadowing for where he ends up.

  132. Gordies Elbow says:

    Wow. Didn’t see this one coming….

    https://twitter.com/dallaseakins/status/531958239425208320

    Best buddies?

  133. spoiler says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Lloyd B.,

    The initial diagnosis was 2-4 weeks-Sunday is 2 weeks

    I think they have a 3 day break after Sunday’s game. If so maybe he waits one more game. Tuff to keep that boy out though. Betcha he was handful just trying to get him to bed as a kid.

  134. spoiler says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Wow. Didn’t see this one coming….

    https://twitter.com/dallaseakins/status/531958239425208320

    Best buddies?

    thats hilarious. You should post it in the new thread.

  135. Pouzar says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Wow. Didn’t see this one coming….

    https://twitter.com/dallaseakins/status/531958239425208320

    Best buddies?

    The collective air went out of 99% of HFOil conspiracy theorists.

  136. Магия 10 says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Wow. Didn’t see this one coming….

    https://twitter.com/dallaseakins/status/531958239425208320

    Best buddies?

    Yeah, but does Eakins have enough confidence to grow sideburns?

  137. v4ance says:

    Gerta Rauss: I see what you did there Bruce..:)

    If you be Jokinen, you be losing Markkanen while you be Joensuuing around the point.

  138. v4ance says:

    RexLibris: One of those Ye Olde Saskatchewan phrases, then. I see.

    Once you work “Bunny Hug” and “Kaiser” into your vocabulary, you’ll be a fully recognized member of Saskatchewanese Club…

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