FORENSIC FILES: AT THE DRAFT

The Oklahoma City Barons are providing some interesting talent to the big club this season, including Todd Nelson, Anton Lander, Oscar Klefbom and Tyler Pitlick. Callups mean new opportunities and since the New Year the scoring is being done by a new group.

2015 BARONS OFFENSE

    1. L Andew Miller 4GP, 2-4-6
    2. L Josh Winquist 4GP, 2-3-5
    3. R Iiro Pakarinen 4GP, 2-2-4
    4. D Jordan Oesterle 4GP, 0-4-4
    5. L Ryan Hamilton 2GP, 1-2-3
    6. R Steve Pinizzotto 2GP, 1-2-3
    7. R Matt Ford 4GP, 2-1-3
    8. C Bogdan Yakimov 4GP, 1-2-3
    9. C Jason Williams 4GP, 1-2-3
    10. L Kellen Jones 4GP, 1-1-2
    11. C Connor Jones 4GP, 1-1-2
    12. D Brad Hunt 4GP, 0-2-2
    13. D Martin Marincin 4GP, 0-1-1
    14. L Curtis Hamilton 3GP, 1-0-1
    15. D Dillon Simpson 3GP, 0-1-1
    16. D David Musil 4GP, 0-0-0
    17. D Brandon Davidson 4GP, 0-0-0
    18. C Jujhar Khaira 4GP, 0-0-0
    19. L Travis Ewanyk 3GP, 0-0-0
    20. D Martin Gernat 2GP, 0-0-0
    21. L Mitch Moroz 1GP, 0-0-0
    22. G Laurent Brossoit 3GP, 3.97 .895
    23. G Richard Bachman 2GP, 2.02 .929

This bunch is in Rochester tonight, I’ll update as we go. Josh Winquist is one of those Bob Green additions, signed after the draft in summer and (so far) looking good as a free-agent investment. Other such types are Jordan Oesterle, Andrew Miller and Iiro Pakarinen. Draft prospects who are matriculating? Bogdan Yakimov, Curtis Hamilton and Dillon Simpson.

FORENSICS: MATH AND THE DRAFT

It’s long established that the Oilers have in fact used analytics at the draft table. Marco Roy was a player Edmonton liked and math recommended and it makes sense to run these kids through some kind of model to see if there’s a way to suss out talent. I’m not convinced analytics was in use this past season beyond Leon Draisaitl but there was some progress that could have been made using basic math formula’s—if you believe Craig Button knows what he’s talking about (and I do).

Do you remember back on draft day, when my list included famous names like Andrew Mangiapane and Reid Gardner? The only reason those players were on my list was their NHLE performance. They passed through the draft and now, in a deep draft year mind you, Mangiapane is ranked No. 49 (I had him No. 52 last season) and Gardner comes in at No. 77 (I had him No. 82 a year ago) on the Button 2015 list.

I’m not a scout and absolutely there are people (like Michael Parkatti) who would have more sophisticated math models than me. However, my little basement made list makes an important point: junior numbers DO matter and there’s a tipping point where size or speed or whatever scouts don’t like ceases to be a factor, and actual God-given talent and boxcars push everything out of the way.

If we’re talking forensics, let’s apply math liberally throughout the 2015 entry draft.

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67 Responses to "FORENSIC FILES: AT THE DRAFT"

  1. oliveoilers says:

    “Draft prospects who are matriculating? Bogdan Yakimov, Curtis Hamilton and Dillon Simpson.”

    Awesome! Which university will they be attending? We like NCAA!

    I love that word ‘matriculating’. It is easily the most cromulant word I’ve read on here!

    On a hockey note, I hope MacT has learnt his lesson and hasn’t pencilled some of these guys into holes for next year already. There really isn’t anything like bona fide NHL players playing in the NHL. We should have a liberal sprinkling in the NHL and if we have to many good prospects? Well, what a problem to have, especially after these last few years.

    I feel that prospects should always mildly surprise you that they have matured into an NHL player, and until you notice them maybe at training camp or by their play, they should be left where they are. Ok, ok, maybe the slightest of nudges here and there. But no Schultzing!

  2. RexLibris says:

    Hear hear!

    Whatever calculator they used to do the math on Coughlin and Bouchard needs to be retired.

  3. limit says:

    LT you had Tkachev very high as well, so well done!

    Mangiapane turns out to be a 84 sniper in NHL 14 GM Mode:
    https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=Ya-oHwbV6s0

  4. Zangetsu says:

    What if you think button doesn’t have a clue what he’s talking about?

  5. Ca$h-Money! says:

    limit,

    Except Tkachev isn’t having a very good year.

  6. Adam Wu says:

    If Tkachev doesn’t have a good enough year to get drafted, perhaps the Oilers could invite back for another training camp tryout. If he had reproduce his performance from this year’s TC, then he could be signed and returned to junior or the AHL….

  7. Lowetide says:

    Zangetsu:
    What if you think button doesn’t have a clue what he’s talking about?

    Then move on, it’s more hackneyed commentary!

  8. wheatnoil says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    limit,

    Except Tkachev isn’t having a very good year.

    Isn’t he averaging over a point a game? That’s not bad in a draft+1 year. It’s a slight regression from last year, but he only played 20 games last year, so it was always a small sample size issue. Plus he’s adjusting to a new team mid-season.

  9. hunter1909 says:

    LAKings 3-2 W
    Flames 3-4 OTL
    Avalanche 1-2 OTL
    Brooklyn 5-2 W
    Detroit!! 2-4 L
    Chicago 5-2 W

    If Eakins had managed this MacTavish would be talking contract extension.

  10. hunter1909 says:

    Only saw highlights Klefbom made a Grrreat play!

    Yak scores like a Communist!

    @Lowetide: Seems that a lot of usually lucid thinkers got messed up with that new fangled stats stuff at seasons start; and never realized what a totally useless hockey coach Dallas Eakins is. Todd Nelson’s hammering his reputation into the sunrise.

  11. Ca$h-Money! says:

    wheatnoil,

    1 point per game in a draft + 1 year, for a player that small, isn’t going to be good enough.

    Note that I’d still draft him in the 7th round on the basis of his training camp performance alone, regardless of what happens this year. But make no mistake, his stock is dropping around the league if he doesn’t start putting up more offence.

  12. Woodguy says:

    Yak interview where he talks a bit about playing with vets: http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=748113

  13. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    RexLibris:
    Hear hear!

    Whatever calculator they used to do the math on Coughlin and Bouchard needs to be retired.

    I think it might just be operator error.

  14. Bad Seed says:

    Auston Matthews ’16,

    I can just see ole Grandad (Lowe). Scotty, how do you work this thing?

  15. Woodguy says:

    CAR up 3-1 on STL in the 1st

    They won’t finish in the bottom 2.

    I think its NJD or PHI who finish 29th…..maybe ARI.

    Lou vs Ed for who Gary will give the 1st over all to.

    I take Ed in a walk.

  16. Ben says:

    Howard in bad shape.

    Wonder if adding Fasth to Petry helps the return from Holland….

  17. wheatnoil says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    wheatnoil,

    1 point per game in a draft + 1 year, for a player that small, isn’t going to be good enough.

    Note that I’d still draft him in the 7th round on the basis of his training camp performance alone, regardless of what happens this year.But make no mistake, his stock is dropping around the league if he doesn’t start putting up more offence.

    I agree with you there, his stock has definitely dropped since training camp. We’ll have to see how the latter half of the season goes.

  18. Woodguy says:

    Nuge will be the Oilers’ rep at the All Star Game.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=748015

  19. Lowetide says:

    Musil scored (and that’s news) from Ryan Hamilton and Khaira (also news).

  20. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy:
    Yak interview where he talks a bit about playing with vets:http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=748113

    Nelson seems to be some sort of… teacher. The percentages have helped give him credibility in the room, but the man appears to be doing some smart things.

  21. nelson88 says:

    Hate to see Petry go but the writing is on the wall.

    Value? Can see why Detroit would not want to send a 1st for a “rental” but with his connections to the motor city you would think Petry won’t be a rental. I also don’t see Petry’s value being and less than the 1st the Wings paid for Quincey.

    I don’t trade McDavid for anyone but if the OIl manage to pick 2nd (unlikely) would you trade Eichel for Weber straight up?

  22. VanOil says:

    Woodguy,

    I totally agree with Nuge being our pity pick for the All Star game. He has been the best player on the worst team in the NHL so far this season.

    I care little for All Star games but I don’t recall Hall ever being selected, is this correct?

  23. Bank Shot says:

    VanOil:
    Woodguy,

    I totally agree with Nuge being our pity pick for the All Star game. He has been the best player on the worst team in the NHL so far this season.

    I care little for All Star games but I don’t recall Hall ever being selected, is this correct?

    Hall was in the 2011 All star game. Just as a rookie I guess.

    Never an actual all star. He would have been for sure in 12/13 and 13/14 but there were no all star games.

  24. VanOil says:

    My guess is the Oilers draft board currently looks like this;

    EDM #1 McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Zacha, Hanifin

    PIT #1 Jake DeBrusk

    EDM #2 Adam Musil

    DET #2 (Petry) Backup Q goalie

    EDM #3 BCHL Coke Machine

    FASTH #3 Tkachev

    Picks #4–#7 overagers and pugilists

    My guess is that dreamed of mathematical meritocracy is trumped by the long standing the bus riders aristocracy.

  25. VanOil says:

    Bank Shot,

    Thank you, Eberle is the only one of the new core I recall actually attending the adult game.

  26. Lowetide says:

    Winquist scored again, from Khaira and Musil. So, in the new year Winquist is 5GP, 3-3-6. I think Rom was on this early but we’re now officially interested in this player.

  27. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    nelson88: would you trade Eichel for Weber straight up?

    Nope. Out-pacing Toews at the same age. Think about that – he’s not just a 2nd OV pick.

  28. Woodguy says:

    VanOil:
    My guess is the Oilers draft board currently looks like this;

    EDM #1 McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Zacha, Hanifin

    PIT #1 Jake DeBrusk

    EDM #2 Adam Musil

    DET #2 (Petry) Backup Q goalie

    EDM #3 BCHL Coke Machine

    FASTH #3 Tkachev

    Picks #4–#7 overagers and pugilists

    My guess is that dreamed of mathematical meritocracy is trumped by the long standing the bus riders aristocracy.

    *slow clap*

  29. Nostradumbass says:

    VanOil:
    My guess is the Oilers draft board currently looks like this;

    EDM #1 McDavid, Eichel, Strome, Zacha, Hanifin

    PIT #1 Jake DeBrusk

    EDM #2 Adam Musil

    DET #2 (Petry) Backup Q goalie

    EDM #3 BCHL Coke Machine

    FASTH #3 Tkachev

    Picks #4–#7 overagers and pugilists

    My guess is that dreamed of mathematical meritocracy is trumped by the long standing the bus riders aristocracy.

    You nailed it all with this one

    – sons of former teammates
    – a pick a few miles from Stu’s house
    – pugilist
    -sons of former teammates

    Fill the cupboard

  30. spud says:

    Good game for Jujhar Khaira tonight (2 assists)–win one-on-one battles along the boards and below the goal line, getting the puck into scoring position.

  31. VanOil says:

    Nostradumbass: You nailed it all with this one

    – sons of former teammates
    – a pick a few miles from Stu’s house
    – pugilist
    -sons of former teammates

    Fill the cupboard

    Yes and a unproven Goalie way too high in the draft. Sadly my smart ass list would not surprise a single one of us if it came true.

  32. Lowetide says:

    Nostradumbass: You nailed it all with this one

    – sons of former teammates
    – a pick a few miles from Stu’s house
    – pugilist
    -sons of former teammates

    Fill the cupboard

    I don’t disagree but really like all those players.

  33. VanOil says:

    Lowetide: I don’t disagree but really like all those players.

    Debrusk late in the 1st and Musil early in the 2nd seems very plausible. I don’t know much about Debrusk but Musil looks like a player with an NHL future.

  34. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    What did they skate the puck into the net.

  35. leadfarmer says:

    Don’t know if it was mentioned but Arco scratched already today, don’t think he lasts the season in Nashville

  36. Woodguy says:

    Josh Weissbock (@joshweissbock) is a good twitter follow.

    Writes for hockeywriters.com and runs chlstats.com

    He just figured the Pearson correlations for two drafting mechanisms.

    Its not on his site yet, but it tells us a lot about how to draft:


    ‏@joshweissbock
    So for just draft year of CHL players, the pearson r correlation to NHL gp is:

    Scouts Rankings: -0.19
    dPPG: 0.41
    PPG: 0.43

    @joshweissbock · 56m 56 minutes ago
    So literally, scouts do worse than just selecting highest ppg

    @joshweissbock · 53m 53 minutes ago
    Seriously… think of how much time and money is invested in these scouting firms… and they are doing worse than a kid on hockeydb

    Wow.

    I know scouts like to get to know the kids and figure out their “compete levels”, but this dove tails well with that call to Bob that was discussed in the last thread.

    “You know what creates a good culture? Winning. What creates winning? Skill”

    For clarification dPPG = difference of ppg and predicted ppg based on regression w/age, season, league (as per Josh)

  37. spud says:

    leadfarmer:
    Don’t know if it was mentioned but Arco scratched already today, don’t think he lasts the season in Nashville

    He will be wearing a Milwaukee Admirals sweater soon.

  38. leadfarmer says:

    I know people have been complaining about Oilers fans suggesting tanking for MacDavid but Arizona just played Mike Smith for the fourth straight game instead of the goalie that has a 33 point save percentage advantage. He has given up 15 goals in those four games. Obvious tank is obvious.

  39. VanOil says:

    Woodguy,

    Given this work and others before it a smart organization should build a draft eligible cross league NHLE list of forwards. (The LT basement list if you will) Then only allow scouting departments to argue ‘corrections’ or team ‘needs’ up to a 10% change in rankings.

    I am not sure how I would adjust for defenders. Goalies is easy, don’t draft them in the first 3 rounds.

  40. Woodguy says:

    VanOil:
    Woodguy,

    Given this work and others before it a smart organization should build a draft eligible cross league NHLE list of forwards. (The LT basement list if you will) Then only allow scouting departments to argue ‘corrections’ or team ‘needs’ up to a 10% change in rankings.

    I am not sure how I would adjust for defenders. Goalies is easy, don’t draft them in the first 3 rounds.

    Actually defenders follow the pts=NHL games played pretty close too.

    If you don’t dominate at the lesser level, you simply don’t make it at the next level.

    Dmen who dominate in the CHL score points.

  41. Woodguy says:

    VanOil:
    Woodguy,

    Given this work and others before it a smart organization should build a draft eligible cross league NHLE list of forwards. (The LT basement list if you will) Then only allow scouting departments to argue ‘corrections’ or team ‘needs’ up to a 10% change in rankings.

    I am not sure how I would adjust for defenders. Goalies is easy, don’t draft them in the first 3 rounds.

    Here’s a nice illustration of it:

    Top 4 Dmen taken in 2008 (all in a row after Stamkos)

    Doughty
    Bogosian
    Pietrangelo
    Schenn

    Here’s their CHL pts/gm in their draft year:

    Doughty 0.86 (was a ridiculous 1.1pts/gm in draft -1 year)
    Bogosian 1.01
    Pietrangelo 0.88
    Schenn 0.49

    Now look at their NHL careers and it makes sense.

  42. VanOil says:

    Woodguy: Here’s a nice illustration of it:
    Top 4 Dmen taken in 2008 (all in a row after Stamkos)

    Doughty
    Bogosian
    Pietrangelo
    Schenn

    Here’s their CHL pts/gm in their draft year:

    Doughty 0.86 (was a ridiculous 1.1pts/gm in draft -1 year)
    Bogosian 1.01
    Pietrangelo 0.88
    Schenn 0.49

    Now look at their NHL careers and it makes sense.

    I accept and understand the PPG in the CHL is also a valid way to evaluate defenders. But how would you integrate it with a forwards list? i.e. 1.0 PPG is very good for a top pick defender but middling for a top pick forward. Is there a conversion factor you can use to convert D ppg too F ppg or is this still a bit of witch craft?

  43. Woodguy says:

    How bad are the Dys?

    It was a scheduled win vs CAL who lost last night to FLA and played Wed.

    Nope, Dys lost 1-0.

    They looked old and slow.

    Terrible game.

    They miss Hamhuis badly, but they were awful.

  44. Numenius says:

    leadfarmer:
    I know people have been complaining about Oilers fans suggesting tanking for MacDavid but Arizona just played Mike Smith for the fourth straight game instead of the goalie that has a 33 point save percentage advantage.He has given up 15 goals in those four games.Obvious tank is obvious.

    Poor Dubs.

    Last season he was scratched and traded for playing poorly, now he’s scratched for playing well.

  45. jp says:

    Woodguy:
    Josh Weissbock (@joshweissbock) is a good twitter follow.

    Writes for hockeywriters.com and runs chlstats.com

    He just figured the Pearson correlations for two drafting mechanisms.

    Its not on his site yet, but it tells us a lot about how to draft:


    ‏@joshweissbock
    So for just draft year of CHL players, the pearson r correlation to NHL gp is:


    Scouts Rankings: -0.19
    dPPG: 0.41
    PPG: 0.43

    @joshweissbock·56m 56 minutes ago
    So literally, scouts do worse than just selecting highest ppg

    @joshweissbock·53m 53 minutes ago
    Seriously… think of how much time and money is invested in these scouting firms… and they are doing worse than a kid on hockeydb

    Wow.

    I know scouts like to get to know the kids and figure out their “compete levels”, but this dove tails well with that call to Bob that was discussed in the last thread.

    “You know what creates a good culture?Winning.What creates winning? Skill”

    For clarification dPPG = difference of ppg and predicted ppg based on regression w/age, season, league (as per Josh)

    Wow indeed. Super interesting stuff. But this doesn’t seem quite possible though, does it? I figure we/I must be missing something here.

    +1 is a perfect positive correlation. -1 is a perfect negative correlation. 0 is no correlation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient).

    -0.19 means that the “scouts rankings” are actually worse than chance at predicting NHL GP? This simply isn’t true. First rounders, on average, play more NHL games than 2nd rounders, who play more than 3rd rounders. Are these some crazy rogue scouts he’s looking at? Maybe from the Oilers staff? Consensus lists and actual picks do far better than chance.

    Details aside, presumably his conclusions are sound. I don’t doubt that PPG is a better predictor than many scouting lists, but there has to be something wrong with these numbers.

  46. kooler says:

    leadfarmer,

    I mentioned this before…crazy idea but let’s hope Oil continue to work themselves out of last place and teams like Arizona and Buffalo continue to trend downwards so why not trades our 1st rounds picks for a combination of a dman and a centre to help fill the holes (Hanzel/Yandle). Such a trade guarantees one of those two will be last…but at least they have 3 first rounds picks to look till the draft. Is this a totally crazy idea?

  47. Woodguy says:

    jp: Wow indeed. Super interesting stuff. But this doesn’t seem quite possible though, does it? I figure we/I must be missing something here.

    +1 is a perfect positive correlation. -1 is a perfect negative correlation. 0 is no correlation (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pearson_product-moment_correlation_coefficient).

    -0.19 means that the “scouts rankings” are actually worse than chance at predicting NHL GP? This simply isn’t true. First rounders, on average, play more NHL games than 2nd rounders, who play more than 3rd rounders. Are these some crazy rogue scouts he’s looking at? Maybe from the Oilers staff? Consensus lists and actual picks do far better than chance.

    Details aside, presumably his conclusions are sound. I don’t doubt that PPG is a better predictor than many scouting lists, but there has to be something wrong with these numbers.

    He hasn’t published his data yet, but will soon.

    I don’t think he’s wrong.

    Just looked at all the 2007 drafted Dmen

    There were 11 Dmen drafted out of the CHL before PK Subban was taken.

    Subban was drafted 43rd w/ 0.82pts/gm in the CHL

    Here are the CHL Dmen drafted ahead of him and their pts/gm and NHL games played.

    4. Hickey 0.73 – 162gp
    5. Alzner 0.75 – 386gp
    10. Ellerby 0.36 – 211gp
    11. Plante 0.66 – 10gp (was Alzner’s partner in for Hitmen)
    23. Blum 0.71 – 108gp
    30. Ross 0.44 – 0gp
    31. Brennan 0.60 – 40gp
    33. Ellington 0.21 – 0gp
    34. Godfrey 0.84 – 0gp
    41. Marshall 0.45 – 10gp
    43. Subban 0.82 – 325gp

    This list isn’t perfect, but it is very suggestive.

  48. sliderule says:

    VanOil,

    You are not funny.
    Not funny at all.

  49. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Woodguy: He hasn’t published his data yet, but will soon.

    This list isn’t perfect, but it is very suggestive.

    The list is darn near perfect

    34. Godfrey 0.84 – 0gp
    43. Subban 0.82 – 325gp
    5. Alzner 0.75 – 386gp
    4. Hickey 0.73 – 162gp
    23. Blum 0.71 – 108gp
    11. Plante 0.66 – 10gp (was Alzner’s partner in for Hitmen)
    31. Brennan 0.60 – 40gp
    41. Marshall 0.45 – 10p
    30. Ross 0.44 – 0gp
    10. Ellerby 0.36 – 211gp
    33. Ellington 0.21 – 0gp

    Godfrey is a miss to the negative, Ellerby is a miss to the positive, otherwise it’s about right.

    What it teaches us is that while a blind devotion to ppg is probably not the correct answer for achieving greatness (it would certainly get you at or above league average over time) it should be the primary basis for analysis. Start with that, and then move players around understanding that they need to be close in order to move (making a case that Hickey or Alzner > Subban is realistic, making a case that Ellington or Ellerby > Subban is clearly not).

  50. Woodguy says:

    The guys at Canuck Army took this concept to the next level and re-drafted all 30 NHL teams from 2000 to 2010 using CHL pts/gm method.

    Here are the results: http://canucksarmy.com/2014/6/26/sham-sharron-takes-over-all-30-draft-tables

    Its a fun read.

  51. nelson88 says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: Nope. Out-pacing Toews at the same age. Think about that – he’s not just a 2nd OV pick.

    Very risky I agree. Giving up 8 years of control of a guy like Toews/Modano for maybe a year or two of Weber in his prime and a year or two at a high level and continuing to fall off.

    However; I would seriously consider it;

    1. Top D in their prime are game changers. ex. Chara in Boston.

    2. It is near impossible to “lead” from the middle or back of the back. There will be different opinions on Ference as a leader they need a top end, no bullshit vet.

    3. Oilers are already in “joke” territory and they need to get this thing turned around quickly before someone like Hall demands a trade.

    4. Nurse and Klefbom are top organizational assets. How much do they gain by playing beside Weber for a few years. See Roman Josi or dougie Hamilton.

    5. What if Eichel isn’t exactly thrilled about playing in the spotlight of Northern Alberta? Not suggesting that is the case but a possibility that needs to be considered.

    Tough call but I would do it. Particularly if I still had Pits 1st rounder and get another from Detroit.

  52. sliderule says:

    Woodguy,

    I looked at that article and it shows you could fire all your scouts and not do too bad.

    Using that method would have taken all the nepotism out of drafting.

    That would have helped oilers drafting.

  53. Marc says:

    Lowetide: I don’t disagree but really like all those players.

    Agree. Not choosing a good prospect just because his dad has ties to the team is just as stupid (if not more so) than choosing a poor prospect just because his dad has ties to the team.

    The revisionist history around Musil is a pet peeve of mine. It was a reasonable pick at the time. The summer before his draft year he was considered a likely top 5 pick. He struggled during his draft year, but was still considered a low first round/ high second round pick.

    C&B did an aggregated ranking prior to the draft and had Musil 23rd (http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/6/23/2238437/nhl-entry-draft-2011-ykoil-bob-mckenzie). Bruce had him just outside the first round (http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2011/06/23/2011-nhl-entry-draft-handicapping-the-top-30/).

    The Oilers wanted to go D with their second round pick because their D prospect depth in
    winter 2011 (with their then NHLE) was:

    Martin Marincin (WHL) 6-19-25
    Jeremie Blain (QMJHL) 1-22-23
    Shawn Belle (AHL) 3-16-19
    Brandon Davidson (WHL) 3-13-16
    Taylor Chorney (AHL) 3-11-14
    Alex Plante (AHL) 1-7-8
    Kyle Bigos (NCAA) 0-7-7
    Johan Motin (AHL) 1-3-4
    Jordan Bendfeld (AHL) 0-0-0
    Troy Hesketh (USHL) 0-0-0

    Yikes. It would have been negligent not to try and come out of that draft with a couple of good D prospects. And Musil was actually the top rated D man left on Bob Mackenzie’s list when the Oiler’s picked as it happens.

    As it turned out, a bunch of the boom/bust top six forward prospects available at 31 (Jurco, Saad, Jenner, Rattie) all boomed, and Musil hasn’t yet got his skating to NHL calibre, so the pick looks awful.

    That doesn’t mean that it was an off the board reach though. It wasn’t. And it certainly doesn’t mean that it was made to make Musil’s dad happy. There is zero evidence that was the case.

  54. Woodguy says:

    nelson88,

    1. Top D in their prime are game changers. ex. Chara in Boston.

    Chara is not in his prime.

    He turns 38 this spring.

    His slow down (been injured as well this year) has been pointed to as one of the reasons BOS is struggling this year.

  55. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    Woodguy,

    I looked at that article and it shows you could fire all your scouts and not do too bad.

    Using that method would have taken all the nepotism out of drafting.

    That would have helped oilers drafting.

    Yeah, I like their verdict on the Oilers:

    Take away Paajarvi, Eberle, and Cogliano, but add Boyes, Pominville, Clowe, Stajan, Talbot, Gorges, Bolland, Dubinsky, Ennis, and Ellis? I think that’s a good deal.

    The Verdict: lolilers.

  56. nelson88 says:

    Woodguy,

    Yes. i’m aware of that. I was referring to his early years when he joined the Bruins and helped turn the franchise around.

  57. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ca$h-Money!: Ellerby is a miss to the positive

    Ellerby is a curious case. He seems to be a classic case of getting a lot of those games off the back of

    1. draft pedigree means we play you until you exhaustively prove to us we were wrong about you.
    2. size means we play you until you exhaustively prove to us we were wrong about you.

  58. sliderule says:

    Marc,

    The Musil pick was tainted by his father being an ex oiler and scout.

    They sent his father out of room while discussing and making the pick but everything that was said in that room would have got back to him.There would have been very little negative expressed..

    The head scout or GM could have said no but obviously didn’t.

    On any pick that involves nepotism and personal relationships you would have to be doubly sure that it was the right one or you have failed as a scouting team.

  59. Woodguy says:

    nelson88:
    Woodguy,

    Yes. i’m aware of that. I was referring to his early years when he joined the Bruins and helped turn the franchise around.

    It didn’t read that way at all.

  60. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    sliderule:
    Marc,

    The Musil pick was tainted by his father being an ex oiler and scout.

    They sent his father out of room while discussing and making the pick but everything that was said in that room would have got back to him.There would have been very little negative expressed..

    The head scout or GMcould have said no but obviously didn’t.

    On any pick that involves nepotism and personal relationships you would have to be doubly sure that it was the right one or you have failed as a scouting team.

    This is like the Will Acton thing for me.

    I really don’t see any reason to think the Oilers picked Musil because of his father.

    The only way this makes any sense is the following:

    They had more experience with the player and his background and this gave them a better sense of his “character” and the Oilers value this stuff.

    Playing in Van… they would have seen Musil a ton. A ton.

    And, in his draft -1 year he put up a lot of points:

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=23298

    Look at that player, call him David Smith, and tell me the Oilers aren’t interested in a WHL D with size, positionally sound, grit, signs of offence and in the range for an early 2nd round pick?

    You can’t.

    http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=44973

    The family angle is just something we are adding to the story to make a narrative out of it.

  61. Lowetide says:

    Musil was projected first round or early second and that’s where the Oilers got him. At the time, they wre still at a point where defense was a need, and that’ (for me) is an area we can be critical. There WERE outstanding forwards still available but they took a D.

    Further complicating matters is the prolonged period it takes for D to develop. So not only are people angry at MacGregor for the 2011 draft not giving them Jenner or Saad, even if these kids turn out it’s going to be long after he’s gone.

  62. oliveoilers says:

    I wonder when scouting turned from hard working guys trawling through the dross attending games in some god-forsaken town spending months from their families into guy that have open ended plane tickets from North America to northern Europe and beyond?

    I wonder how much pressure they are under to find the next Datsyuk? Are teams trying too hard, are they trying to create their own narrative of the low round pick they found that became a superstar?

    Everybody wants every pick to be a home run, but I think I goes back to what I said yesterday:

    Do your due diligence and scout properly, make your pick then bury them somewhere and forget about the low rounders for a season or until you start hearing good things. Give them a little push or nudge from time to time. I think that low rounders should give you a pleasant surprise when their name comes up in discussion with senior people hearing the same good things.

    However teams, particularly the Oilers seem to have this magic ‘progression’ chart that can accurately predict the development line for any given player. I’m willing to bet that the line on that chart is linear and thus wrong. Though we do seem to have been better at understanding the non-linearity of young player development of late.

  63. smellyglove says:

    Marc,

    Really? I always thought the Musil pick was nepotism.

    Musil was picked #31 in the 2011 draft, that’s basically a first-round selection. IMO, you still need to be drafting BPA at that point. My trademarked ‘Smellyglove Simple Draft Analysis’ is to look at the next five players, who were selected after your guy, and determine whether or not they were better picks. It mitigates the ‘guy picked #103 that 30 teams passed over three+ times’ effect.

    Let’s take a look, shall we?

    32 St. Louis Ty Rattie: AHL All-Star this year
    33 Florida Rocco Grimaldi
    34 NY Islanders Scott Mayfield
    35 Detroit Tomas Jurco: Great prospect!
    36 Chicago Adam Clendening: average size D, lighting the lamp in the AHL

    Every single one of these players has games in the NHL and 2-3 look like great picks. Musil is working his way up as a journeyman AHL D-man. What’s his potential? Bottom-pairing shutdown guy (if we’re lucky). You can’t use high picks on guys who have a so-so probability of becoming something mediocre. Musil maybe a solid person, but I bet dollars to donuts that without the Oilers connection, he would not be here.

    Want to know who the player is that was taken six spots after Musil? It’s this guy, Boone Jenner, maybe you’ve all heard of him?

  64. supernova says:

    Lowetide:
    Musil was projected first round or early second and that’s where the Oilers got him. At the time, they wre still at a point where defense was a need, and that’ (for me) is an area we can be critical. There WERE outstanding forwards still available but they took a D.

    Further complicating matters is the prolonged period it takes for D to develop. So not only are people angry at MacGregor for the 2011 draft not giving them Jenner or Saad, even if these kids turn out it’s going to be long after he’s gone.

    Lowetide,

    Agree completely

    Musil on his own had a lot,of draft currency built up. Mckenzies list agrees with that.

    The oilers main scouting issue is they seem to float around on a overall plan.

    One year this is the plan the next year it’s something different.
    It’s quite ridiculous to change your goals every year for what you want for draft picks.
    Best Player Available is often talked about.,after the first pick it rarely happens though

    Drafting based on positional biase seems to be creeping into the NHL more and more, just like In the NFL.

    Will the Oilers be doing BPA at positional biase this year?

  65. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    smellyglove:
    Marc,

    Really? I always thought the Musil pick was nepotism.

    Musil was picked #31 in the 2011 draft, that’s basically a first-round selection. IMO, you still need to be drafting BPA at that point. My trademarked ‘Smellyglove Simple Draft Analysis’ is to look at the next five players, who were selected after your guy, and determine whether or not they were better picks. It mitigates the ‘guy picked #103 that 30 teams passed over three+ times’ effect.

    Let’s take a look, shall we?

    32St. LouisTy Rattie: AHL All-Star this year
    33FloridaRocco Grimaldi
    34NY IslandersScott Mayfield
    35DetroitTomas Jurco: Great prospect!
    36ChicagoAdam Clendening: average size D, lighting the lamp in the AHL

    Every single one of these players has games in the NHL and 2-3 look like great picks. Musil is working his way up as a journeyman AHL D-man. What’s his potential? Bottom-pairing shutdown guy (if we’re lucky). You can’t use high picks on guys who have a so-so probability of becoming something mediocre. Musil maybe a solid person, but I bet dollars to donuts that without the Oilers connection, he would not be here.

    Want to know who the player is that was taken six spots after Musil? It’s this guy, Boone Jenner, maybe you’ve all heard of him?

    Just ask yourself the simple question:

    Call him David Smith and do the Oilers in 2011 still want that player?

    The obvious answer is yes. The rest is narrative.

  66. nelson88 says:

    Woodguy,

    Fair enough. Folks on this site are very knowledgeable and in an effort to cut down wordiness I take that for granted I suppose.

    I was referring to Chara joining the Bruins at about the same age as Weber is now and in fairly short order helping to turn them from an also ran into a contender.

  67. Eulers says:

    I think my wife and I were the only Barons fans in the rink last night, and we were very pleased with the outcome. I was struck by how the Barons seem to roll the lines more so than line-match like the parent club.

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