TODD NELSON CANNOT BE STOPPED

So I’m sitting 12 rows up and straight behind the Chicago net and two Oilers forwards find the puck and miles of open ice around Edmonton’s blue. I recognize both from their skating strides (it’s funny how distinctive that is for a player, like a batter’s swing in baseball) and I’m yelling ‘SHOOT’ to Nail before he hits the outskirts of Chicago. That damned kid drove to the net like a bat of hell and put it all to rest. The crowd went wild.

Todd Nelson cannot be stopped.

landerferguson5

The forward hit the blue line in full stride and wired a perfect pass (music!) to Teddy Purcell who matched it at least with a gorgeous seeing-eye rocket to Derek Roy who just happened to be visiting the slot at the perfect moment. Bang! Oilers score. My mind centers on the forward who passed the puck. From my view, I thought…but it couldn’t be! Too good for school, too skilled for Lander, must have been another. And damned if the passer doesn’t joint the celebration and it is indeed Area 51.

Todd Nelson cannot be stopped.

klefbom9

I’m at the game with my Daughter, and have been fretting over Oscar Klefbom’s work load (to my eye, at the game, he was getting a lot of heavy work) and one sortie featured the young Swede getting hammered by the big ‘Hawks forwards. My Daughter says “they’re beating up on Oscar” and I smile, both because she’s engaged in the game and because I’ve clearly said Oscar enough for her to know who he is.

In the ensuing sortie, it’s a tire fire around Edmonton’s net and a puck beats Scrivens and it’s all over. Except. Except Oscar is in the one spot on the ice where he could do something about the goal to come, and the kid saved the day brilliantly.

Todd Nelson cannot be stopped.

nelson captureTodd Nelson cannot be stopped. Since flying solo his Oilers are 3-1-2 after starting the season 7-22-7. Incredible. Nelson has produced 27% of Edmonton’s points in 14% of their games. Incredible. The Oilers GF-GA in those games is 18-14 (+4) after starting the season 77-127 (-50).

standings jan 10

Looking at this and factoring in the actual rosters, I suspect both Carolina and Edmonton surge (surge?) past Buffalo and we may see one other team (Arizona, New Jersey, Philadelphia) dive. If the Nelson spike continues through end January, I don’t see this team picking No. 1 or No. 2 unless they win the lottery. Wouldn’t that be a hoot? Oilers finish 27th and win the lottery? Old man Snider would come out of his shoes on the follow through to Bettman!

One of the things this blog tries not to do is filter back to previous items in an ‘I told you so’ manner. Oilers fans are familiar with the problems of the team and frankly I’ll credit the bunch of us who visit this site daily for being ahead of the curve on many of the problems this team faces today. I wrote at length this summer about center and balance and Derek Roy’s performance (I believe) reflects the importance of the decision.

My question today, the one I’ve been mulling, is ‘how much credit/blame to we give to Craig MacTavish’ for being so very late to recognize this? It’s hyperbole to state Dallas Eakins lost his job because of the shortsighted actions of the GM, right? Or is it?

Balance. Craig MacTavish will be the GM this summer, his third. He and the people advising him must learn about balance on the roster. Not balance if she comes, not balance when they mature, not balance some sweet day.  Balance. From day one, minute one. Craig MacTavish owes it to the fans, his players, the organization he runs and his owner. Enough enough enough.

balance222

THE TOP 30 PLAYERS IN THE 2015 DRAFT

  1. (1) C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) Hard target No. 1.
  2. (2) C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) Hard target No. 2.
  3. (3) D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) Closed well at world juniors. Impressive talent.
  4. (4) C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) 6.03, approaching 2 points-per-game in world’s best jr league.
  5. (6) R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) 79 points in 39 GP and he was blocking shots last night.
  6. (5) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA). Range of skills, trending.
  7. (7) C Nick Merkley, Kelowna (WHL). Powerful skater with plus playmaking ability. Crazy offensive season.
  8. (8) C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia Sting (OHL) Huge forward impressed at WJ. Bet the Oilers love him.
  9. (13) R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML). Big winger with terrific skills. A fun player to watch.
  10. (10) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SEL) 6.0, 174. Two-way defender with terrific speed and an across the board skill set.
  11. (9) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) Love his skills, he’s going to be a favorite.
  12. (14) Nikita Korostelev, Sarnia Sting (OHL). Good size, speed, skill. I bet he moves up the list before June.
  13. (11) C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) Intelligent offensive player with exceptional passing ability and speed.
  14. (12) L Lawson Crouse, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL). Big, big winger with some skill. The new Lucic hopeful?
  15. (16) R Daniel Sprong, Charlettown Islanders (QMJHL) Dynamic scorer, excellent skater.
  16. (15) C Jansen Harkins, Prince George Cougars (WHL) Two-way center with emerging offense. Intelligent.
  17. (18) Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton Screaming Eagles (QMJHL). Major skill, size, speed.
  18. (17) D Jeremy Roy, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL) Quality two-way defender. Smart player.
  19. (19) C Jeremy Bracco, USND (USHL). NO idea why this small skill center isn’t getting more attention.
  20. (20) C Travis Konecny, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Skill F, slightly undersized. Started slowly, coming along now.
  21. (22) L Dennis Yan, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL). Skill winger scoring well in a good junior league.
  22. (23) C Colin White, USND (USHL). Skill center scoring well, famous early.
  23. (26) C Anthony Beauvillier, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL). Small, exceptionally skilled center.
  24. (21) D Jakub Zboril, Saint John Seadogs (QMJHL). A puck-moving defender with size.
  25. (24) C Filip Chlapik, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL). Impressive young player, very creative.
  26. (NR) L Jake Debrusk, Swift Current (WHL). Trending an impressive.
  27. (27) L Ryan Gropp, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL). Has a plus shot, skates well, good size. Throwback winger.
  28. (NR) R Jens Looke, Brynas (SHL). Terrific young skill winger impressed at WJ’s.
  29. (29) C Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL). Scoring center isn’t lighting it up this year, highly regarded.
  30. (25) R Brock Boeser, Waterloo Blackhawks (USHL). Appears to be a talented tank.

dog funny funny funny

Note: Saturday Sports Extra hits the air at noon today, with co-host Bruce McCurdy! Bruce and I will talk about the Oilers, Oil Kings, MLB, we’ll tee up the WHL trade deadline with Cody Nickolet and talk soccer with Armen Bedakian. Stay tuned for Bruce! TSN 1260 at noon.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

118 Responses to "TODD NELSON CANNOT BE STOPPED"

  1. Ben says:

    Nelson MUST be stopped.

    No way sleeper agent Nikitin allows this to continue.

  2. oliveoilers says:

    Took my 10yo daughter and her friends to BPs for her birthday. All of them were glued to the game. Had to put it on the radio in the car home and at home. Bear in mind these are 10yo girls and they were enraptured by the game. There was something else about last night, even if we regress back to the meat, we’ll always have early January 2015 vs the Hawks.

    Listened to Yaks goal, but the commentator didn’t do it credit. Hall might as well have not been there. Neither Raanta. He should have just stepped aside and let Yak tap it into an empty net. The whole of Oilersnation held it’s breath, I don’t think there has been such a collective will to score since Pisani went in one-on-one on Ward. When we were screaming “SHOOT, FOR THE LOVE OF PETE, SHOOOOOOOOT!” Yak calmly said “Relax. I got this. Take cheel peel. Why you haff to be mad?”

    We expected different results and things didn’t turn out like always.

  3. supernova says:

    Fun game to be at last night, felt like old times, a little electricity in the building.

    I was telling my friend all game after yaks first 2 shifts. This is the game he scores. He had a jump all game. Good for you Nail.

    Who would have thought a veteran scoring Center was a good idea with a talented winger.

    It’s one game but I am happy for Nail and us fans.

    Nelson has infused confidence in players. They feel better, they want it more.

    Not trying to bash Eakins but did he make them overthink?

  4. flyfish1168 says:

    Nice win by the Oilers. Happy to see Nelly getting another win and more traction in his career.

    New coaching philosophy and some new strategies has definitely has helped this team. We keep hearing more up tempo practices and driving the net without circling the net.

    Small sample size but starting to think we found ourselves a good coach. My definition of a good coach

    https://www.competitivedge.com/special-%E2%80%9Cwhat-makes-good-coach%E2%80%9D

  5. gogliano says:

    30th isn’t going to happen unless injuries start piling up. But if Roy becomes a real piece for next year and Yak reminds us of his 1st year season, that is a whole new line to look forward to next year.

    Yak’s comment about Roy telling him where he needs to be is encouraging but also a bit of a tell regarding his junior and NHL development. How much teaching is done by linemates as opposed to coaches? I’d wager a lot of it. Throwing out a bunch of underprepared kids is going to kill their development no matter how talented they are. Horc-Yak looks a lot better than Drais-Yak if we’re worried about development. Which is also to say that you can’t evaluate coaches in a vacuum. Eakins’ job was made a heck of a lot harder because the kids didn’t have enough veterans or real NHL players to show them the way. Kudos to Nelson for doing well in what is still a pretty tough situation.

  6. sliderule says:

    Strome had a nice game for Eirie against London with three assists.He is a wonderful passer and likes to set up behind net on pp and feed the open man which he invariable finds.He is a very smooth skater but I don’t think he has high end speed or acceleration.

    Marner also had a good game and assisted on both London goals.The first he cut to front of net and took a wide open shot and then it was put in.The second was a slap pass and deflection that Hall has been doing with Nuge but you don’t see that often in junior.He also looks much taller than 5-11 .It will be interesting to see measurements at combine.I like this player a bunch as he is a better skater than Strome and has a great scoring touch.

  7. flyfish1168 says:

    oliveoilers:
    Took my 10yo daughter and her friends to BPs for her birthday.All of them were glued to the game.Had to put it on the radio in the car home and at home.Bear in mind these are 10yo girls and they were enraptured by the game.There was something else about last night, even if we regress back to the meat, we’ll always have early January 2015 vs the Hawks.

    Listened to Yaks goal, but the commentator didn’t do it credit.Hall might as well have not been there.Neither Raanta.He should have just stepped aside and let Yak tap it into an empty net.The whole of Oilersnation held it’s breath, I don’t think there has been such a collective will to score since Pisani went in one-on-one on Ward.When we were screaming “SHOOT, FOR THE LOVE OF PETE, SHOOOOOOOOT!”Yak calmly said “Relax.I got this.Take cheel peel.Why you haff to be mad?”

    We expected different results and things didn’t turn out like always.

    I said the same thing to shoot but glad he deked. Did not expect the unexpected

  8. russ99 says:

    That game was good for the long-suffering Oiler fan’s soul.

    Hope they can build on it, I don’t expect everything to be great from now on.

    Glad Nelson has been the right guy for this group, and he’s running with his chance at NHL head coach.

    Roy, Klinkhammer and Fraser have been like a lightning bolt to this team.

    Gotta give MacT huge props on those moves and even if he was slow to move, he made the changes that helped made yesterday happen. Not a pass on what went before, but at least some promise that we don’t need to start over with a new GM this summer.

    The org still needs change, but at least there’s finally forward movement.

  9. Woodguy says:

    The biggest difference I’ve noticed in player deployment from Nelson compared to Eakins is OZS.

    Eakins was dedicated to certain lines getting X% of starts, whereas Nelson is more hard matching lines.

    Eakins hard matched Dpairs, but zone start ruled the day in terms of F deployment.

    Here’s yesterday’s OZS% by line:

    RNH 100% (8-0)
    Lander 80% (4-1)
    Roy 30% (3-10)
    Gordon 22% (2-7)

    The opposing coach tends to give their secondary scoring line the easiest ZS and Nelson is matching with Roy since he got here, so Roy is getting tougher starts, albeit vs easier comp. (secondary scoring lines tend to be populated by the younger players)

    He did seem to deploy RNH in the OZ regardless of match up, but hard matched Gordon vs Toews and Roy vs. Richards (Kane)

    Its interesting stuff and seems to be working.

    As for the Dpairs OZS:

    Fayne/Nik- 82% (9-2)
    Klef/Jultz – 50% (5-5)
    Petry/Fer – 27% (3-8)

    Dpairs most common C’s:

    Fayne/Nik – Roy 5:19, Lander 4:52
    Klef/Jultz – RNH 8:43, Lander 4:09
    Petry/Fer – Gordon 9:21, Roy 4:52

    So at home Nelson got his most offensive players 100% OZS with the Jultz backing them often.

    Petry/Fer begin life in the dzone

    Fayne/Nik get the shelter from the better comp (or tried at least, we saw what happened when they were out against Toews)

    There a lot to digest in this deployment.

    I’m going to look at Nelson’s other home games and see if they match, then have a look at the away games.

  10. Lowetide says:

    WG: One thing I noticed last night was Lander’s bump after Nuge came off the PK. Lander played with Hall/Eberle somewhere in there (second period?) and it came right after RNH went off at the end of a penalty-killing shift. Interesting choice, but then again Roy’s line was ripping it up so why mess with perfection?

  11. Surly says:

    Finishing last:

    20% chance of first overall
    80% chance of second overall

    Finishing 27th:

    9.5% chance of first overall
    45% chance of 4th overall
    45.5% chance of 5th overall

    I’ll take the drop in odds of getting McDavid (and the g’tee of the Eichel consolation prize) if it means we have found our next coach and our plethora of other first overalls, along with the other 20 players on our roster, find a higher level of play in the back half of this season. Plus, at 4th overall we are probably not rushing another teenager into the NHL…or we can trade it for a needed player who is legally allowed to consume alcohol in the United States of America.

    Those new odds coming into effect in 2016 are the way to go. So much flexibility in the top 3 that you don’t have to worry about where you finish…just cheer your team on. Bless these Oilers for encouraging the NHL to make the change.

  12. Dee Dee says:

    The whole planet tells MacT that he can’t start the season with so many rookies and AHLers and then he decides to do so anyways.

    After the season is lost and he fires the coach, only then, out of desperation, he finally decides to listen.

    Not sure I would give “credit”, but I am glad as hell that things are turning around.

    Note to NHL owners. This is what happens when you hire a rookie GM. Sink or swim, and MacT was under for his last gasp.

    He was making decisions about who would be playing now as early as the last draft.

  13. Clay says:

    That’s a crazy picture. Can you imagine the bricks being shat by anyone aboard that ship?

    The conspiracy theorist in me says that MacT knew exactly what he was doing going into the season with only 2 NHL centres, but was operating under marching orders from the owner to not win until the new arena is ready.

    Eakins’s exit comments didn’t do anything to dispel this (“we thought we’d be ready to win by the time the new arena opened”).

    What MacT wasn’t ready for was how bad in fact this team turned out to be. I’m sure he thought they’d be ahead of last year, but were in fact cursed by the gords, and it cost his coach his job.

    Now, MacT is facing his own firing, so he goes and finds a centre in an effort to save his hide.

    Whatever the case, it’s a weird year. I know that if we miss out on one of the two saviors at the top of this draft, for the next 20 years, we’ll all be watching McDavid rack up 100 point seasons, Eichel rack up 85 point seasons, and curse the name Derek Roy.

  14. Woodguy says:

    Yak’s Goals For On/60 this year with various Centers:

    Arco (193min) – 1.55
    DrySaddle (180min) – 0.996
    Lander (39min) – 1.52
    RNH (38min) – 1.58
    Roy (35min) – 5.09

    Yak’s Goals For On/60 Years 1-2 combined with various Centers:

    Gagner (596 min) – 2.41
    RNH (286 min) – 1.67
    Horcoff (118min) – 5.05
    Arco (103min) – 1.74
    Belanger (54min) – 2.19
    Gordon (51min) – 0.00
    Lander (45min) 1.33

    Veteran C’s with a history of scoring seem to help our Young Yak.

    Who Freaking Knew?

    The Horcoff and Roy numbers are small samples (as are many others) and the Roy number will come down, but it still illustrates the point.

    The Oilers really botched Yak’s development by not giving him a good vet C who knows how to score in the NHL for the first 3 years.

    Seeing how fast Yak can rebound, I doubt the damage is permanent.

  15. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    WG: One thing I noticed last night was Lander’s bump after Nuge came off the PK. Lander played with Hall/Eberle somewhere in there (second period?) and it came right after RNH went off at the end of a penalty-killing shift. Interesting choice, but then again Roy’s line was ripping it up so why mess with perfection?

    Gets Lander more TOI as Roy’s line is going to see their normal shift, but Lander’s 4th line might not get on the ice for a bit.

    Good choice.

  16. Mr DeBakey says:

    Todd Nelson cannot be stopped.

    According to former NHL GM Craig Button “the first thing [the Oilers] have to do … is get an experienced [NHL] coach, somebody with credibility and competency”

    Another former NHL Executive says “I like Todd Nelson. He’s a good, young coach…but when you’re eight years out of the play-offs, you need an experienced guy.

    * * *

    and we may see one other team (Arizona, New Jersey, Philadelphia) dive.

    Rumour has it the Coyotes are very willing to move players.

  17. Maverick says:

    What an enjoyable game last night! Was a pleasure to watch. Nelson has done a few things that remind you of a career coach, a person who coaches to the team’s strengths and weaknesses. Not saying its prefect but its a bit different than how Eakins (coached) thought they should be instead of what they are.

    So glad for Yakupov! Nice interview with Gene after, Nail talks about some mistakes and Gene says lets focus on the positives and you see that Nail smile…..Priceless. Wish the best for the kid.

  18. jooks says:

    Blame on Mac for not getting a 2C before the season started can only be assigned if we knew for certain if he tried (and how hard he tried). Example: did he offer a similar contract (or even more $) to Roy and Roy still chose NAS? Did Jokinen not decide to play here because Mac didn’t offer enough $? Was Brodziak really available for peanuts and Mac just said no? Without answers to these questions, it’s really hard say with certainty that Mac is to blame. The only solid evidence in the argument against Mac is not grabbing Chipchurra off waivers. But Chipchurra is not a 2C.

    Off topic but one comment regarding tanking: it seems no one takes into account that losing does irreversible damage to younger players’ ability to learn to win. So there actually is a cost to acquiring this ‘generational talent’. It is highly doubtful that Mac can just wave his magic tank wand, grab McDavid in June and voila, we start winning in October. The team needs to learn how to win and needs to do that now. If they learn to do the little things to win and get MaDavid next year, then gravy. Odds are that’s not gonna happen. But you’d think with the high-end talent already on the team, if Nelson really can teach the kids winning habits, and if Mac can find the sweet balance LT craves, then we don’t need McDavid. There are plenty of elite teams in the league without Crosby.

    It has been a pleasure to watch the Oilers play with an actual 2C the past few games. Todd Nelson for Intergalactic Overlord!

  19. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Roy Yak Poo looked terrific last night. Just goes to show what can/might happen with Yak with a push with a couple of experienced vets, especially a C who tells him how to improve his game and where to go like Roy’s been doing.

    That’s why I was saying don’t trade Yak until you acquire a Thornton type for him to play with, but maybe it doesn’t even need to go that far. We can find out who/what Yak is with the remaining 40 games with Roy.

    I’m alright with the Oilers not finishing last. I haven’t jumped aboard the tank train. If it were the old draft odds of ~48% chance of getting McDavid, that would be different. But it’s only 20% even if they finish last, 80% chance of not getting McDavid. And you’d have to finish last to be guaranteed Eichel or better. We know Buffalo is the worse team so I think we just need to accept that nothing is guaranteed and move on.

    I’m honestly hoping for Hannifin. A future where we see
    Nurse-Hanifin (maybe one can slide over to the right side and make it work)
    Klefbom-Petry (I hold out hope)
    Marincin-Schultz (I hold out hope here, too)

    That, if it pans out, is a championship blue line.

    And, as others have suggested, if Philly is crazy enough about Hanifin to offer us Couturier + Morin for him, I’m all over that, too.

  20. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Woodguy:
    Yak’s Goals For On/60 this year with various Centers:

    Arco (193min) – 1.55
    DrySaddle (180min) – 0.996
    Lander (39min) – 1.52
    RNH (38min) – 1.58
    Roy (35min) – 5.09

    Yak’s Goals For On/60 Years 1-2 combined with various Centers:

    Gagner (596 min) – 2.41
    RNH (286 min) – 1.67
    Horcoff (118min) – 5.05
    Arco (103min) – 1.74
    Belanger (54min) – 2.19
    Gordon (51min) – 0.00
    Lander (45min) 1.33

    Veteran C’s with a history of scoring seem to help our Young Yak.

    Who Freaking Knew?

    The Horcoff and Roy numbers are small samples (as are many others) and the Roy number will come down, but it still illustrates the point.

    The Oilers really botched Yak’s development by not giving him a good vet C who knows how to score in the NHL for the first 3 years.

    Seeing how fast Yak can rebound, I doubt the damage is permanent.

    This. 100%. Been saying that as well for a little while now.

  21. Maverick says:

    Woodguy:
    The biggest difference I’ve noticed in player deployment from Nelson compared to Eakins is OZS.

    Eakins was dedicated to certain lines getting X% of starts, whereas Nelson is more hard matching lines.

    Eakins hard matched Dpairs, but zone start ruled the day in terms of F deployment.

    Here’s yesterday’s OZS% by line:

    RNH 100% (8-0)
    Lander 80% (4-1)
    Roy 30% (3-10)
    Gordon 22% (2-7)

    The opposing coach tends to give their secondary scoring line the easiest ZS and Nelson is matching with Roy since he got here, so Roy is getting tougher starts, albeit vs easier comp.(secondary scoring lines tend to be populated by the younger players)

    He did seem to deploy RNH in the OZ regardless of match up, but hard matched Gordon vs Toews and Roy vs. Richards (Kane)

    Its interesting stuff and seems to be working.

    As for the Dpairs OZS:

    Fayne/Nik-82% (9-2)
    Klef/Jultz – 50% (5-5)
    Petry/Fer – 27% (3-8)

    Dpairs most common C’s:

    Fayne/Nik – Roy 5:19, Lander 4:52
    Klef/Jultz – RNH 8:43, Lander 4:09
    Petry/Fer – Gordon 9:21, Roy 4:52

    So at home Nelson got his most offensive players 100% OZS with the Jultz backing them often.

    Petry/Fer begin life in the dzone

    Fayne/Nik get the shelter from the better comp (or tried at least, we saw what happened when they were out against Toews)

    There a lot to digest in this deployment.

    I’m going to look at Nelson’s other home games and see if they match, then have a look at the away games.

    This type of deployment looks alot like how Alain Vigneault coached the Canucks years ago. If I’m not mistaken.

  22. Ca$h-Money! says:

    If finishing 30th means:

    1. Eichel or McDavid

    and finishing 27th means the majority (say 4 of 6 at a minimum) of the following is true:

    1. Found next year’s coach
    2. Roy has impressed enough to earn a cheap extension
    3. Yakupov is back on track as a prospect
    4. Petry starts enjoying himself enough to sign for 5 years
    5. Scrivens shows well enough to feel like he’ll be a very good 35 game backup next year
    6. We draft Strome/Hanifin/whoever and don’t see them on the roster until 2017-2018

    I’ll take option 2.

  23. flyfish1168 says:

    gogliano:
    30th isn’t going to happen unless injuries start piling up.But if Roy becomes a real piece for next year and Yak reminds us of his 1st year season, that is a whole new line to look forward to next year.

    Yak’s comment about Roy telling him where he needs to be is encouraging but also a bit of a tell regarding his junior and NHL development.How much teaching is done by linemates as opposed to coaches?I’d wager a lot of it.Throwing out a bunch of underprepared kids is going to kill their development no matter how talented they are.Horc-Yak looks a lot better than Drais-Yak if we’re worried about development.Which is also to say that you can’t evaluate coaches in a vacuum.Eakins’ job was made a heck of a lot harder because the kids didn’t have enough veterans or real NHL players to show them the way.Kudos to Nelson for doing well in what is still a pretty tough situation.

    I like our comment about Roy suggesting to Yak where to go during he play. Roy may prove to be invaluable to Yaks developement

    Wasn’t that a nice shoot out move by Yak. I wonder if Nelson will reconsider

  24. Black Frank says:

    At this rate we will draft quite a lot higher than reflects the new found talent, dedication and quality of this team. We will be a team that is trending, that is interesting to free agents, and the only good thing about the first half of this season is picking about 6 or 7 places higher than we would have otherwise. We can also thank Dallas for clearing out Bucky (sort of), Steve Smith and Chabot prior.

    What a pleasure to see men with spines, dignity and self respect step out on the ice and earn their pay.

    Edit: Except the next game is a glaring trap. Please don’t think you can win that one by mailing it in. Luongo still doesn’t like you.

  25. B S says:

    Unrelated to the game last night (which I turned on in time to see the Yak goal and scream shoot at the screen), I know some here were speculating on trading with Boston and I saw a Baby Bruins game last night. Bare in mind it is a small sample size.

    Subban: didn’t play, he hasn’t been playing a lot this season and it was against the Springfield Falcons, one of the top teams in the conference. His stats are also worse than Jeremy Smith, the starter. He’s still young of course, but thought I’d point it out for future reference. Smith looked good, not great so it isn’t a matter of being held under by a fantastic veteran.

    Khokhlachev: in short take everything you hated about Yakupov’s game and give it a worse shot (still a good shot, but not a laser). This is the ultimate small sample size comment as on paper he is their best scorer, but at no point did he seem to drive the play. He played with Flick and Camara last night and both of them handled the puck more than him. In the offensive zone Khokhlachev would sit outside of the board battles poking his stick in then roaming around the net hoping for a pass. In the Dzone he would float around at the blue line breaking into the neutral zone if any of his teammates came even came near the puck, occasionally blocked point shots but never charged or pushed an opposition player off the puck.

    Lindblad: as their only goal scorer last night he obviously looked good by comparison. He was always on the move and either around the puck if they didn’t have it or getting open to the side of the net if his linemates did have it. Carried the puck plenty last night, didn’t make a lot of unnecessary passes or plays. Fairly physical in terms of getting in between other players and the puck. He and Khokhlachev are listed at the same height, but he looks and plays bigger. Still a relatively small winger and doesn’t have the skill set to be a skilled winger in the NHL, with development could be a plugger, would not expect much more from that.

    Based on what I saw I wouldn’t be trading for any Bruins in the minors. No one on that team looked like a replacement for any Oilers prospects let alone NHL players.

  26. Zangetsu says:

    If we trade Roy and Petry at the deadline, or beforehand, we don’t finish higher than second last. Might also be a good time to move Hendricks. I hold on to gordon so he can bridge the gap for lander. It is possible he is worth a kings ransom; in which case a deal is worth a look. I like what nelson is doing, but lets give it more time. This team did win 4 straight once upon a time.

    We usually play backup goalies more often on the tail ends of these seasons. Whatever we do now will likely not be a reflection of how next year goes. It’s better to trim the salary for a few good ufa additions, and to sell high on a few players on expiring deals. Maybe Petry is open to being a loaner. If we aren’t going to resign him though, it is best we trade him right now.

  27. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    I think its clear Nelson doesn’t embrace the “cheat for ulterior motives” sensibility that has been gaining oxygen. For that, I am grateful to the man. He has brought professionalism when desperately needed.

    My goodness, Eakins was a blight on our hopes for these young players. The intensity, simplicity of systems, morale and rational deployment is a stark night and day contrast no matter what the win/loss record is for the remainder of the year. Doesn’t mean Nelson is the man for the long haul (give him the genuine chance to grab it) but he has at least illuminated the difference in approaches and did it very quickly. Wonder how Ramsey feels about it all. His use of players has changed clearly.

    I thoroughly enjoyed the game last night. Fun. Go Oilers!

  28. thejonrmcleod says:

    If Roy continues to play well and increases his value as we near the trade deadline, do you try to deal him for a 2nd round pick or a prospect? Or do you try to sign him to an extension?

  29. Bling says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    If finishing 30th means:

    1. Eichel or McDavid

    and finishing 27th means the majority (say 4 of 6 at a minimum) of the following is true:

    1. Found next year’s coach
    2. Roy has impressed enough to earn a cheap extension
    3. Yakupov is back on track as a prospect
    4. Petry starts enjoying himself enough to sign for 5 years
    5. Scrivens shows well enough to feel like he’ll be a very good 35 game backup next year
    6. We draft Strome/Hanifin/whoever and don’t see them on the roster until 2017-2018

    I’ll take option 2.

    I completely agree with this, and it’s why I’ve been harping against the tank.

    There are tons of positive things that can still happen this season without drafting McEichel, and those things need to happen here and now, not next season.

  30. deankb says:

    I agree with all of the things being said about Nelson but I worry about one thing. Their success mirrors the uptick in Scrivens game… like exactly.

    I don’t know if its my perception or reality but poor Ben doesn’t appear to be playing any better by my eye, just luck is evening out. (Oscar saved one for his too, where was that luck in October?) I know when people watch players they do so with bias. When I watch Petry, I notice the things he does right. The guy next to me at the game can’t wait for his next mistake and scream “thats why we are going to trade you for a draft choice”!

    We both are right in a sense but that is my point. What is Ben? To me, not a starter. So if he was still Ben of a month ago (as far as luck is concerned) would we all be as positive today? This team hurts my brain…

    To my eye, they do look better. Love the forecheck, the zone deployment, and the line construction. But the need to figure Petry and the goalies out because that is potentially two massive holes next October. Doubt any other team is about to cut their best D man loose at prime age so were not signing one of those, unless its Petey.

    Last night was an ice cold beer after mowing the lawn on a super hot day. I don’t ever want to talk about tanking again.

  31. stephen sheps says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    If Roy continues to play well and increases his value as we near the trade deadline, do you try to deal him for a 2nd round pick or a prospect? Or do you try to sign him to an extension?

    If it were me, I would sign him. If Roy unlocks Yak, why not extend him for a year? If nothing else, it allows the team to not force Drai or whomever they draft this June into the lineup next year. Plus, you know, get good players, keep good players? Is that still a thing?

    Ca$h-Money!:
    If finishing 30th means:

    1. Eichel or McDavid

    and finishing 27th means the majority (say 4 of 6 at a minimum) of the following is true:

    1. Found next year’s coach
    2. Roy has impressed enough to earn a cheap extension
    3. Yakupov is back on track as a prospect
    4. Petry starts enjoying himself enough to sign for 5 years
    5. Scrivens shows well enough to feel like he’ll be a very good 35 game backup next year
    6. We draft Strome/Hanifin/whoever and don’t see them on the roster until 2017-2018

    I’ll take option 2.

    Agreed. If these last few games are not a mirage, option 2 please.

  32. verdad2.0 says:

    Why is it a given MacTavish is the GM this summer/?
    The past eighteen months of bungling on his part doesn’t justify it.
    He needs to be fired asap, certainly before the trading deadline.

    When Petry is traded for nothing we can call re-learn what a bungler he is.

  33. Ca$h-Money! says:

    You know what I want? I want to be good next year. If that means McEichel then fine.

    You know what doesn’t make us better next year? Selling vets this year that we can retain. That means not only do we try to resign Petry, but if his play holds up then we try to resign Roy.

    Roy has been having fun in an Oilers jersey, it’s obvious. This is a guy who used to be a real player, who’s been bounced around for a couple of years. If he’s given a decent role he’ll stay here for pretty cheap, mark my words. We couldn’t get these types of players to come here for $1/year last summer, so if we have the opportunity to do so with Roy this year we take it.

    You know what else has kept us in it for long stretches this year? Our fourth line. I know they’re a bit overpaid, but we also need a good fourth line more than most mid pack teams (which is our upside next season). For the love of god I had better see Hendricks, Gordon, and Klinkhammer on the fourth line at the start of next season.

    Obviously anyone on an expiring contract (Petry, Roy, etc.) that can’t be retained we move for a pick/prospect, that’s life. But if we can keep these guys we had better. And we better not sell people that are both useful and still have term.

  34. G Money says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    If finishing 30th means:

    1. Eichel or McDavid

    and finishing 27th means the majority (say 4 of 6 at a minimum) of the following is true:

    1. Found next year’s coach
    2. Roy has impressed enough to earn a cheap extension
    3. Yakupov is back on track as a prospect
    4. Petry starts enjoying himself enough to sign for 5 years
    5. Scrivens shows well enough to feel like he’ll be a very good 35 game backup next year
    6. We draft Strome/Hanifin/whoever and don’t see them on the roster until 2017-2018

    I’ll take option 2.

    Of all of those, #3 is the most important.

    In yesterday’s thread, Adam Wu asked the question, which is better, getting Yak back on track to live up to his 1OV billing and drafting e.g. Strome/Hanifin, or losing Yak and drafting McDavid. And my answer is simple: the first.

    Even a generational player comes with lots of risks: injuries (see: Crosby, Sidney; head), development gotchas, translation issues to the NHL, etc.

    We’ve already seen Yak at the NHL level perform up to Hall’s standard in his rookie season (.65 ppg and a rookie scoring title for Yak, .64 ppg Hall). I posted in the Lander Development thread the other day that Nelson’s most important task this year is getting Yak fixed. #1 by far. With a bullet. If Yak finally gets the right coaching plus a veteran scoring centre to help him develop into the kind of river pusher a 1OV should be … man.

    And if RNH/Hall and Drai/Yak are tearing it up for the next seasons as the key pairings on the top two lines, this team will have it made in the shade offensively, McDavid or no.

    Petry is an afterthought in some ways. I’m not convinced the issue is Petry being unhappy, I think the issue is how the management of this team views his value. So the results to the end of the year likely don’t change whether he stays or goes (and likely it is “goes”).

  35. G Money says:

    deankb: I agree with all of the things being said about Nelson but I worry about one thing. Their success mirrors the uptick in Scrivens game… like exactly.

    Yes.

    There is also the not so minor issue of adding one real NHL C in Roy and a couple of decent depth players in Klinkhammer and Fraser. Especially Klinkhammer, who plays exactly the fast, heavy, and violent type of game that is the MO for Western teams, and yet is often foreign to most of the Oiler team.

    We don’t know if the recent uptick as far as any of the common factors (Nelson, goaltending regressing to the meat, new players) is correlative, causative, or coincidental.

    Teams typically also get a bit of a short-lived energy lift when a team changes coaches mid-stream, so that will obfuscate the issue as well.

    I do think the results we’ve seen so far are very promising as far as Nelson’s ability as a coach (and man is it fun to say “Nelson must be stopped!”).

    But I would wait until at least February to get a bead on how sticky any of these things are.

    LT waits.

  36. Lowetide says:

    G Money: Yes.

    There is also the not so minor issue of adding one real NHL C in Roy and a couple of decent depth players in Klinkhammer and Fraser.Especially Klinkhammer, who plays exactly the fast, heavy, and violent type of game that is the MO for Western teams, and yet is often foreign to most of the Oiler team.

    We don’t know if the recent uptick as far as any of the common factors (Nelson, goaltending regressing to the meat, new players) is correlative, causative, or coincidental.

    Teams typically also get a bit of a short-lived energy lift when a team changes coaches mid-stream, so that will obfuscate the issue as well.

    I do think the results we’ve seen so far are very promising as far as Nelson’s ability as a coach (and man is it fun to say “Nelson must be stopped!”).

    But I would wait until at least February to get a bead on how sticky any of these things are.

    LT waits.

    Yep. Goalies goaling, pucks going in, new coach. A bump before the grind.

  37. PhrankLee says:

    Fayne had a sloppy looking game last night.

    I was shocked with that late cross ice give away..

    I clearly expect too much out him and NN (who has been way better)

    I thought they would be solid #2 or #3 at worst.

    They are both #3 or #4 D at best.

  38. Bling says:

    G Money,

    I think you’re bang on regarding Petry.

    No reason for the Oilers to be shy about about ponying up, especially with the new arena opening next year and what seems to be a new focus on actually winning hockey games.

    I think there may have been some, ahem, confusion about who to give the big money to — i.e. Schultz or Petry.

    …well that’s settled!

    I think we’ll see him signed.

  39. G Money says:

    Funny fact … though the Oilers futility against the Western conference teams remains amazing, the three Western teams the Oilers have beaten are San Jose, LA, and Chicago.

    The Oilers also have wins against TB, NYI, Mtl, NYR, and WSH – who are 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 7th in the Eastern conference respectively.

    But winless against ARZ and CGY.

    Hmmm.

    The Oilers are a team in the NHL.

    The Oilers are probably a playoff team in the Eastern Conference of the NHL.

  40. Unicorns says:

    That was a great game, really enjoyable to play well and win, all in order like it should be. I think Nelson has them paying attention to the little things and that with the team seeming to feel good sure makes a difference on the ice. Great to see Yak enthused.

    Despite this place being one of the most reasonable and informed places to shoot the breeze about the Oilers and hockey in general, I am always amazed at the swings in many here over a single decision or game or a few games. I am sometimes guilty as well.

    I’ll be Debbie Downer today. One of the greatest predictors of future success is the ability to delay gratification. To miss out on McEichel would be a tragedy for the Oilers down the road and in the near future, all for winning a few more games in the middle of a dead cat bounce mirage in a lost season. No thanks. Not after this, not after this long.

    We love Hall and Nuge, and McEichel is quite a step up from there. If they play full careers we are talking about being in a place (with competent management, I know, I know) that looks like becoming a perennial contender. It’s that big, like Stamkos on half assed Tampa and Crosby on half assed Pittsburgh. Just because they are on the team. That’s what really elite players do for you.

    I’ll take that in a heartbeat, or less. I hope it’s McDavid, he blows me away. I want my kids to have the pleasure of watching a player like that regularly if Dad is going to watch Oiler games. I had the special pleasure of the Glory Oilers, I wish something along those lines for them.

    I mentioned A DCB mirage. Let’s not overplay what is happening here. The chances of Roy playing well over time is very low. If they sign him for having a few good games they will be making the Ference mistake again. He was ‘decent’ at his best, and hasn’t been able to stick on good teams – sound familiar? He is looking ok in this short run but let’s not forget teams aren’t showing up against the Oilers in A game mode, fresh or not. Chicago in particular seems to have trouble getting up for the Oilers.

    It’s the perennially last place Oilers, laughing stock, AHL calibre game, nobody takes them seriously. Yet. If they start winning that will change immediately. The talk of the young dangerous forwards will be back. The whole sports world swings up and down like we do I suppose. Fraser (who I am not impressed with) Roy and Klink will be what they were – players barely hanging on in the NHL, not difference makers.

    What will make this team really good over the next few years is another elite centre (and winger if Drai gets pushed to wing), a stable goalie and an at least stable top pairing. And also an ugly purge of guys who can’t show up enough and a better replacement for them. We are close to that on LD through the system to not have to use Ference or Nikitin. Does MacT have the Skype in him to move forward from them?

    There may have to be placeholders if MacT keeps getting turned down by free agents (that will change if winning starts) or nobody will make or he can’t pull off a fair hockey trade. Maybe these new guys are placeholders and better than who they replaced, but they don’t make this a good team over time.

    Again, 82 games hasn’t worked for them elsewhere on good teams. We may have to wait for the draft some more. The higher up the better. Especially this year.

    .

  41. Unicorns says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    If Roy continues to play well and increases his value as we near the trade deadline, do you try to deal him for a 2nd round pick or a prospect? Or do you try to sign him to an extension?

    I’m wary that he keeps this up – deal and resign if you want him.

  42. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Well now – what am I going to do with this great avatar? Hmmmm?

    Tanks… er, I mean, thanks Nelson!

  43. spoiler says:

    Is this where someone says last night was a scheduled win?

    Was still fun to watch though. I’m glad you got to go, LT.

    And Gordammit, I love seeing Oscar pin players to the boards behind the net.

    The last Oiler I remember seeing do that with the same level of effectiveness?

    Martin Marincin.

    That first 2 on 1 we gave up where Toews deliberately aims for Bartleby’s far pad to force a rebound to Saad had me thinking here we go again…

    But somehow the Oilers didn’t cave mentally and emotionally.

    Derek freaking Roy.

    I was calling him “Mini Doug Weight” all night.

  44. G Money says:

    spoiler: Is this where someone says last night was a scheduled win?

    It was … or rather, it was a scheduled loss for the Hawks.

    Of course, the last time the Oilers played a team that had a scheduled loss, the Oilers still managed to lose.

    So there’s that.

  45. HiddenDarts says:

    stephen sheps,

    I give Roy 10 games. If he still looks good, I sign him 2 years for $2million, or if you’re insane, 3@1.75.

    A pick at this point SHOULD NOT BE IN THE CARDS! This magic bean thing is well past it’s best before date 5 years into a rebuild.

    As to tanking, there is really no reason (outside of a dice roll for McDavid) why this is a good thing. Better draft position, sure, but you also get a team whose confidence is thoroughly devastated, a huge stain on an organization that ALREADY has to overpay UFAs, and the loss of a career for a guy who appears to be a very good coach.

    That’s a three-pack of shame, friends. All for a 20% chance? I’ll pass.

    Go Oilers. I will forgive all if I see another 40 games of hockey this consistent! Even if it results in picking #10!

  46. spoiler says:

    G Money: It was … or rather, it was a scheduled loss for the Hawks.

    Of course, the last time the Oilers played a team that had a scheduled loss, the Oilers still managed to lose.

    So there’s that.

    Absolutely. And the Hawks are tough no matter what. Quenneville still expects a win on these nights.

  47. spoiler says:

    Somebody called into Stauffer’s show this week and asked him specifically about Petry.

    The caller was so well-spoken and thoughtful in his arguments that I thought he had to be a regular from this blog.

    Bob, despite this guy’s intelligent pestering, was pretty non-committal and had to do a lot of fancy dancing around the arguments. He knows something that he’s not saying.

    The whole exchange gave me the distinct impression that Petry doesn’t want to stay.

    Did anyone else hear that call?

  48. oliveoilers says:

    Unicorns,

    “I’ll be Debbie Downer today. One of the greatest predictors of future success is the ability to delay gratification. To miss out on McEichel would be a tragedy for the Oilers down the road and in the near future, all for winning a few more games in the middle of a dead cat bounce mirage in a lost season. No thanks. Not after this, not after this long.”

    Sez who? Who said “One of the greatest predictors of future success is the ability to delay gratification.” Walter Mischel? From tenuous links at best?

    Freud alluded to it, however iterated that it must be tempered with actually achieving the reward at the end. The prize is not the chase. This can be seen in the fact that we’re going to be a decade out of the playoffs. Enjoying your delayed gratification much? Always the bridesmaid, never the bride. Just one more year. Things will be different next year. And when they’re not, always remember delayed gratification virtually guarantees success!

    Is this you, Kevin?

  49. Bling says:

    I just watched a highlight reel of Nail Yakupov’s rookie year.

    That game-tying goal against LA is just amazing, holy crap.

    It’s too bad the likes of Eric Belanger had to stamp that enthusiasm out of his game.

  50. Black Frank says:

    Clay:
    That’s a crazy picture.Can you imagine the bricks being shat by anyone aboard that ship?

    The conspiracy theorist in me says that MacT knew exactly what he was doing going into the season with only 2 NHL centres, but was operating under marching orders from the owner to not win until the new arena is ready.

    Eakins’s exit comments didn’t do anything to dispel this (“we thought we’d be ready to win by the time the new arena opened”).

    What MacT wasn’t ready for was how bad in fact this team turned out to be.I’m sure he thought they’d be ahead of last year, but were in fact cursed by the gords, and it cost his coach his job.

    Now, MacT is facing his own firing, so he goes and finds a centre in an effort to save his hide.

    Whatever the case, it’s a weird year.I know that if we miss out on one of the two saviors at the top of this draft, for the next 20 years, we’ll all be watching McDavid rack up 100 point seasons, Eichel rack up 85 point seasons, and curse the name Derek Roy.

    Eakins ruined every player that came his way. It wasn’t a bad team it was a dispirited, badly coached team. The only historical element of Dallas’ record not to label him a bad coach altogether is his apparent success with the Marlies. So if he comes back and schools a Todd Nelson Oilers team with an NHL team of his own, just as DD schooled Chabot’s suffering goalie, I’ll become very confused for sure.

    But then I gave up trying to figure out what was wrong with this team just before MacT showed us it was Eakins, and to a lesser degree his own coaching. Interesting that the mood, morale, performance of the team only took off once MacT vacated the bench. As good a coach as he was in the past, maybe he’s actually better at his new day job.

  51. rickithebear says:

    Last night I watched a 17yr RW who is 72P in last 28 games.
    Play a better defensive game than his offensive game.
    Had a lot of his smart play die on young domi’s stick.
    He had 1 A . If he is feeding anyone else. he is 2 to 4 points.

    Domi found out Erie is better than Denmark; Cezch’s.

    I would be OK with Getting a lot better and then drafting 4 or 5.

    XXX-Yakimov-Marner
    Age based NHLE
    Mcdavid 1.6 PPG 1.0 EVPPG
    Marner 1.6 PPG 1.0 EVPPG

  52. oliveoilers says:

    spoiler:
    Somebody called into Stauffer’s show this week and asked him specifically about Petry.

    The caller was so well-spoken and thoughtful in his arguments that I thought he had to be a regular from this blog.

    Bob, despite this guy’s intelligent pestering, was pretty non-committal and had to do a lot of fancy dancing around the arguments.He knows something that he’s not saying.

    The whole exchange gave me the distinct impression that Petry doesn’t want to stay.

    Did anyone else hear that call?

    LOL, there was actually a lot of people who called in/texted/emailed and schooled Bob this week! I particularly love his “if the fans only knew what I knew” rants, laced with “what the fans have to realise” and “the fans are upset. I get it.” You can literally imagine himself digging that hole deeper and deeper.

    Yesterday’s rant about the show not being called ‘Maple Leafs Now’ was quality.

    Despite this, I have a soft spot for Bobby. Sometimes I listen and try to read between the lines. Even when he tries to wriggle out of his failed predictions by using semantics. For example: I didn’t say the Oilers would get seven wins in December, I said I would not be surprised if they didn’t.

    Still enjoy the show, for all it’s warts.

  53. Adam Wu says:

    oliveoilers:
    Unicorns,

    Sez who?Who said “One of the greatest predictors of future success is the ability to delay gratification.”Walter Mischel?From tenuous links at best?

    There was a long behavioral study that showed that the ability to delay gratification in preschoolers was the single best predictor of future as adults. The children were given one marshmallow and told they could either eat it now, or wait 2 minutes alone with the treat in a room, after which, if they haven’t eaten the marshmallow, they would get another one. Those who could wait for the second marshmallow were the ones who were most successful as adults, even after all other variables like social condition, education, and so forth, were controlled for. Among those that could not wait, the ones who lasted the longest before succumbing to the temptation also did better than those who just ate the marshmallow right away (I think.)

    But this data applies to children, not sports teams, and the delayed gratification was certain, not a “higher chance for X”.

  54. VanOil says:

    I see Pavel Zacha as a steal at #8.

    Scouts seems to discount that so far this season he has had overcome the acculturalization of moving to Sanria, the acculturalization to smaller N.A. ice and the acculturalization to CHL’s rules and code of conduct. He seems to have figured out that North Americans, on the small ice, play more physical game of hockey. Embracing this a little to much has earned him 2 suspensions.

    I have Zacha in the top 5 of players available. A team that has the discipline to develop him properly will have one hell of a player. If he arrives in the NHL at 20 years on a veterans wing he will arrive big, nasty and skilled. An instant fan favorite. Please don’t let him end up in Calgary.

  55. spoiler says:

    oliveoilers: LOL, there was actually a lot of people who called in/texted/emailed and schooled Bob this week!I particularly love his “if the fans only knew what I knew” rants, laced with “what the fans have to realise” and “the fans are upset.I get it.”You can literally imagine himself digging that hole deeper and deeper.

    Yesterday’s rant about the show not being called ‘Maple Leafs Now’ was quality.

    Despite this, I have a soft spot for Bobby.Sometimes I listen and try to read between the lines.Even when he tries to wriggle out of his failed predictions by using semantics.For example:I didn’t say the Oilers would get seven wins in December, I said I would not be surprised if they didn’t.

    Still enjoy the show, for all it’s warts.

    I lived with Bob for a while back in the early to mid 90s, and we worked together at Mo’s back in its heyday. So I will always have a soft spot for Bob. He’s actually a real gentleman and has an uncanny memory for sports. Old timers would come in to Mo’s and try to “Stump Bob” for a beer. Rarely happened. Back then he could tell you who pitched game 4 of the 1957 World Series without blinking an eye. He also works very hard at what he does.

  56. oliveoilers says:

    Adam Wu: There was a long behavioral study that showed that the ability to delay gratification in preschoolers was the single best predictor of future as adults. The children were given one marshmallow and told they could either eat it now, or wait 2 minutes alone with the treat in a room, after which, if they haven’t eaten the marshmallow, they would get another one. Those who could wait for the second marshmallow were the ones who were most successful as adults, even after all other variables like social condition, education, and so forth, were controlled for. Among those that could not wait, the ones who lasted the longest before succumbing to the temptation also did better than those who just ate the marshmallow right away (I think.)

    But this data applies to children, not sports teams, and the delayed gratification was certain, not a “higher chance for X”.

    What they should have done was to give the child a choice of a marshmallow now, or the possibility they either:

    a) Be given another one after two minutes alone without eating it.

    b) Just left with the original Marshmallow to see how long they’d put off eating it.

    c) Take the marshmallow away and invoice them for another.

    This is actually reality! As far as I can see, all they taught those kids was manners.

  57. oliveoilers says:

    spoiler: I lived with Bob for a while back in the early to mid 90s, and we worked together at Mo’s back in its heyday. So I will always have a soft spot for Bob.He’s actually a real gentleman and has an uncanny memory for sports.Old timers would come in to Mo’s and try to “Stump Bob” for a beer.Rarely happened.Back then he could tell you who pitched game 4 of the 1957 World Series without blinking an eye. He also works very hard at what he does.

    I suspect there are some that just try to push his buttons. Kind of like a drinking game, see who can get Bob apoplectic earliest and for the longest.

  58. supernova says:

    spoiler: I lived with Bob for a while back in the early to mid 90s, and we worked together at Mo’s back in its heyday. So I will always have a soft spot for Bob.He’s actually a real gentleman and has an uncanny memory for sports.Old timers would come in to Mo’s and try to “Stump Bob” for a beer.Rarely happened.Back then he could tell you who pitched game 4 of the 1957 World Series without blinking an eye. He also works very hard at what he does.

    oliveoilers,

    spoiler,

    I for one think Bob does an excellent job.

    In my opinion he shouldn’t be telling the fans stuff if he knows it ahead of time. That isn’t his role.

    He shouldnt be a trade breaker Or insider. If he ever got relived of his role.

    TSN and Spottsnet would hire him instantly.

  59. cabbiesmacker says:

    Well done Todd. I hope you blow it out of the water until the end of the season, get an incredible offer from a team minus the meddling no-minds, then thumb your nose at the Oilers for hiring Dallas Eakins without even giving you the benefit of an interview 2 years ago.

    You deserve to go to an organization with some class.

  60. Brackenburied says:

    spoiler:
    Somebody called into Stauffer’s show this week and asked him specifically about Petry.

    The caller was so well-spoken and thoughtful in his arguments that I thought he had to be a regular from this blog.

    Bob, despite this guy’s intelligent pestering, was pretty non-committal and had to do a lot of fancy dancing around the arguments.He knows something that he’s not saying.

    The whole exchange gave me the distinct impression that Petry doesn’t want to stay.

    Did anyone else hear that call?

    I honestly believe this is the only rational explanation for the handling of Petry; he just doesn’t want to be here. Damn shame.
    I suspect pride and prejudice came into play once MacT realized this. Damn shame.
    I also suspect (hope) that MacT is learning that player mentality (take a number, extract revenge) has no place in the GM world.

  61. Woodguy says:

    Maverick: This type of deployment looks alot like how Alain Vigneault coached the Canucks years ago.If I’m not mistaken.

    Agreed.

    Vigneault gave the Pisscutters around 70%OZS, started Maholtra in the Dzone, then hard matched Kesler against the other team’s 2nd line.

    The year Kesler won the Selke he was 8/13 on the Dys in terms of Corsi QC.

    The PHWA really pay attention to the details don’t they?

    The ability to do that lies in trusting your Dzone C/line and your 2C/line.

    Eakins never had a 2C he could do that with.

  62. Woodguy says:

    spoiler:
    Somebody called into Stauffer’s show this week and asked him specifically about Petry.

    The caller was so well-spoken and thoughtful in his arguments that I thought he had to be a regular from this blog.

    Bob, despite this guy’s intelligent pestering, was pretty non-committal and had to do a lot of fancy dancing around the arguments.He knows something that he’s not saying.

    The whole exchange gave me the distinct impression that Petry doesn’t want to stay.

    Did anyone else hear that call?

    The Oiler’s MO when it comes to in-season signings is to leave it to the last minute.

    That was Lowe’s MO and it continued through Tambellini.

    I don’t think they tried to sign anyone in season last year. Traded Hemmer and Nultz at the deadline and picked up Fasth, but I don’t think they signed anyone in season last year.

    Lowe stated that he likes to do it close to the deadline as “it gets done faster” when time is an issue.

    When Tambellini resigned Hemsky it was right at the deadline.

    If anything is going to get done with Petry, I’d expect it to follow this path.

    We hear his name is out there and that’s kinda sad, but Hemsky’s name was out there the year they signed him as well.

    Given his usage this year its pretty obvious that the coaches know his value and therefore MacT does too.

    Whether or not MacT has a Phaneuf trade in his pocket or hand shake agreement with Boychuck or similar is the only reason I can think of for them not to try as hard as they can to sign Petry.

  63. Pouzar says:

    G Money: It was … or rather, it was a scheduled loss for the Hawks.

    Of course, the last time the Oilers played a team that had a scheduled loss, the Oilers still managed to lose.

    So there’s that.

    Yup. Coyotes pasted them 5-1 on Dec 23rd on it’s 3rd game in 4 nights.

  64. GCW_69 says:

    No talk of the scheduled win? There is plenty of talk here when the Oilers have a “scheduled loss”. We should at least acknowledge this was a scheduled win.

    Great that the Oilers took advantage of it, but we should be careful reading much in to it other than they did what they were supposed to do – beat a very tired team.

  65. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Pouzar,

    Good call on the Yak goal last night!

  66. Pouzar says:

    Auston Matthews ’16:
    Pouzar,

    Good call on the Yak goal last night!

    Thanks. I liked what I saw from him the night before on that line and had a good feeling.
    That was quite the goal scorers goal after such a prolonged slump.

  67. linkfromhyrule says:

    spoiler: Bob, despite this guy’s intelligent pestering, was pretty non-committal and had to do a lot of fancy dancing around the arguments. He knows something that he’s not saying.

    The whole exchange gave me the distinct impression that Petry doesn’t want to stay.

    Did anyone else hear that call?

    I was curious so I decided to have a listen. Would encourage others to listen to as there was lots of good stuff on there. It can be found at http://www.630ched.com/oilers-now/ under 1st half hour of January 8th at about 16min mark. Also continues into next time slot.

    Did my best to transcribe it and interpret what they were getting at.

    First they discuss Nail and his offense. Brad believes there should be routes, like a football play, where the F should be going. Bob thinks that it has been discussed conceptually and maybe not picked up on. Brad seems to imply a lack of good coaching where the F (especially Nail) have not known, or been instructed properly, where to go when going through the neutral zone and making zone entries

    Question he asks: what is the oilers plan for petry
    Bob: if I knew he wasn’t going to re-sign, I would trade him. Discusses one year deal as evidence, high turnover. Lack of other free agents on the market
    Brad: Who else will we get to replace him then? Seems to be their best defenseman
    Bob: They don’t have a best defenseman most nights, but its a very valid point, no one to replace him
    Bob suggests:
    fayne-schultz
    klefbom-nikitin
    ference-marincin
    (I think that’s what he was saying anyway)

    Brad: guess we’ll be talking about a top 5 pick again next year with that D. Why develop a dman for 5 years and get him to 300 games, then trade him.
    Bob: goes on about RNH being a non-starter for trades. Thinks Petry debate goes either way, valuable player with his warts, but actually suggests the Oilers might be wrong about their valuation of Petry.
    Brad: Trading him for a 2/3 round pick doesn’t help, even with the cap space
    Bob: suggests again nikitin switching to right side.
    Brad: rightly suggests nikitin has been terrible, states even thought schultz gets favorable deployment he doesn’t produce and is terrible. Nobody can step in and replace Petry’s minutes.
    2nd question
    Brad: In your opinion, what value does phaneuf have?
    Bob: doesn’t think he would waive his NTC to come to edmonton. toronto thinks we have bad culture
    Brad: Culture is a function of talent and winning

    hope my terrible transcription isn’t too terrible, but bob does tend to ramble a lot. I definitely got the impression that Petry will be traded. I think it’s a combination of the Oilers org. not valuing Petry while simultaneously Petry has had enough of this gong show and wants to get paid $$ and term somewhere that is not 30 below in december (in temperature and the standings)
    Bob: phaneuf won’t come from one gong show to another. Thinks ference has a better rep than phaneuf around the league (WTF?)

    after the break:
    Brad: article about phaneuf, 3 seasons under wilson and 3 under carlyle. Misused under carlyle by being given tough ZS and tough assignments. Was effective under wilson in a schultz role. Was effective until carlyle. Phaneuf = semi-elite offensive dman, average defensive defenseman.
    Bob seems to think phaneuf has a bad contract, you can make an argument for Oilers to sign petry. Talks about perception of Phaneuf around the league because of his perception in TO media(like that has anything to do whatsoever with his play on the ice).
    Bob doesn’t like Phaneuf’s contract. Seems to buy into the narratives in Toronto about Phaneuf’s cultural issues to some extent.
    Brad thinks winning changes the culture, talent changes the winning (money quote right there)

    They discuss cost of Phaneuf, Bob guesses they would have to retain salary, and that he wouldn’t be worth a top 5 pick.

    Remenda is on afterwards but I didn’t feel like transcribing it all. They discuss Wilson for a bit, mostly about how Wilson is with people and his systems. nothing that interesting.

    Move onto Phaneuf, ask about contract and whether its a good idea to trade for him. They think contract might be an issue, and discuss his (supposed) problems in the room. Believe getting out of Toronto is best for Dion, but maybe not coming to Edmonton. Seem to really be stuck on his character issues.

    Onto Petry, they believe he will test the market for sure. He’s played well this year. Agree he will have considerable value this summer. Discuss Detroit as a landing place.

  68. Adam Wu says:

    GCW_69:
    No talk of the scheduled win?There is plenty of talk here when the Oilers have a “scheduled loss”.We should at least acknowledge this was a scheduled win.

    Great that the Oilers took advantage of it, but we should be careful reading much in to it other than they did what they were supposed to do – beat a very tired team.

    The Blackhawks are 5-2 in so-called “scheduled loss” games.

    When a top tier team that is tired plays a bottom tier team that is rested, the top tier team is often still favored to win. The advantage in restedness is outweighed by the overall superiority of the top tier team in all other respects.

    They are “scheduled loss” games for the Oilers because, as a bottom tier team, the tiredness is a disadvantage on top of a situation where they are hard pressed to win even at their best.

    Top tier teams do not have “scheduled losses”, they have “scheduled wins” when they go up against a tired bottom tier team when they are rested, and “scheduled disadvantaged and higher risk of loss, but still good chance of winning” games when they must compensate for their tiredness.

    Tiredness may drop a team like the Blackhawks from a #3 team to a #15 team, for that particular night. You’d still expect a #15 team to beat a rested #30 team like the Oilers.

  69. linkfromhyrule says:

    linkfromhyrule,

    In conclusion, it definitely seemed like Bob thinks Petry is as good as gone. His first statement about it says it all imo. I think it is a combination of the organization not valuing Petry when it mattered (last summer), and to some extent now even, while simultaneously Petry wants out. He wants to get paid in $$ and term and not play for a team that is 30 below in December (in standings and temperature). Who can blame him. The Oilers need to overpay their own FA. It must happen, or things will be even uglier next season.

  70. Woodguy says:

    Jon tweeted this:

    Jonathan Willis @JonathanWillis · 1h 1 hour ago
    #Oilers 5v5 SH% and SV%:
    – 2014-15 Eakins: 6.5%, 0.902
    – 2013-14 Eakins: 7.7%, 0.913
    – 2014-15 Nelson: 12.6%, 0.951

    Jonathan Willis @JonathanWillis · 2h 2 hours ago
    Don’t get me wrong, I’ve always liked Todd Nelson as a coach, but he didn’t just double the effectiveness of #Oilers shooters and goalies.

    Out of curiosity I went to waronice and ran the Low Danger Shot/Goals and Medium Danger + High Danger Shots/Goals for the goalies for Eakin + MacT/Nelson and for Nelson.

    I added the Medium Danger and High Danger shots because they are the “Home Plate” of scoring.

    I added MacT/Nelson to Eakins because by eye (and results) they didn’t start “playing better” until it was just Nelson on the bench.

    WARNING: SMALL SAMPLE SIZES ABOUND

    All info is shots against Oilers.

    Home Plate shots/game:
    Eakins + MacT/Nelson – 9.33
    Nelson – 11.67

    Low Danger shots/game
    Eakins + MacT/Nelson – 11.89
    Nelson – 11.17

    Home Plate Save %:
    Eakins + MacT/Nelson – .795
    Nelson – .914

    Low Danger Save %:
    Eakins + MacT/Nelson – .956
    Nelson – .985

    For comparision’s sake:

    League Median HomePlate SV% – .854
    League Average Low Danger SV% – .967

    Nelson is riding a pretty sweet PDO wave.

    Hope it continues.

    Seriously, I like to watch wins.

    EDM’s PDO Eakins + MacT/Nelson = .965 lowest in NHL
    EDM’s PDO Nelson = 1.078 = highest in NHL during that time

    Let the narrative wars begin!!

  71. Woodguy says:

    GCW_69:
    No talk of the scheduled win?There is plenty of talk here when the Oilers have a “scheduled loss”.We should at least acknowledge this was a scheduled win.

    Great that the Oilers took advantage of it, but we should be careful reading much in to it other than they did what they were supposed to do – beat a very tired team.

    I bet on the Oilers last night due to CHI’s scheduled loss.

    Got +180.

  72. GCW_69 says:

    Adam Wu,

    Adam Wu: The Blackhawks are 5-2 in so-called “scheduled loss” games.

    When a top tier team that is tired plays a bottom tier team that is rested, the top tier team is often still favored to win. The advantage in restedness is outweighed by the overall superiority of the top tier team in all other respects.

    They are “scheduled loss” games for the Oilers because, as a bottom tier team, the tiredness is a disadvantage on top of a situation where they are hard pressed to win even at their best.

    Top tier teams do not have “scheduled losses”, they have “scheduledwins” when they go up against a tired bottom tier team when they are rested, and “scheduled disadvantaged and higher risk of loss, but still good chance of winning” games when they must compensate for their tiredness.

    Tiredness may drop a team like the Blackhawks from a #3 team to a #15 team, for that particular night. You’d still expect a #15 team to beat a rested #30 team like the Oilers.

    Just because Chicago has defied the scheduled loss story this season doesn’t mean the Oilers weren’t handed a nice advantage last night. As the season rolls on those scheduled losses get tougher. and tougher.

    And can you show me your work on calculating the Chicago drop off factor from 3 to 15? I would love to see it.

  73. GCW_69 says:

    Woodguy: I bet on the Oilers last night due to CHI’s scheduled loss.

    Got +180.

    That’s gotta feel good!

  74. Diesel says:

    FYI the Flyers broadcast has been hailing Nick Schultz as their best d-man this year.

  75. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy:

    EDM’s PDO Eakins + MacT/Nelson = .965 lowest in NHL
    EDM’s PDO Nelson = 1.078 = highest in NHL during that time

    Let the narrative wars begin!!

    No different than any job I don’t think. Motivated, relaxed employees perform better than those who are uptight, tense, and possess very little motivation. These guys had tuned Eakins out completely and were just going through the motions to ride out another losing year.

  76. Woodguy says:

    I also think the Oilers still have a giant crush on Weber.

    I could see them trading a pile o’ stuff for him this summer.

    3rd-4th overall pick + Pit pick + Marincin + ??????

  77. Woodguy says:

    cabbiesmacker: No different than any job I don’t think. Motivated, relaxed employees perform better than those who are uptight, tense,and possess very little motivation. These guys had tuned Eakins out completely and were just going through the motions to ride out another losing year.

    So you think Nelson can create an atmosphere that results in a 1078 PDO?

  78. Woodguy says:

    GCW_69: That’s gotta feel good!

    Yes sir.

    Had parlays with FLA in one bet and NYI in another. 🙂

  79. Woodguy says:

    Diesel:
    FYI the Flyers broadcast has been hailing Nick Schultz as their best d-man this year.

    They are right actually.

    Way better than he was here.

    Also speaks to the quality of Philly Dmen and how much they’d pay the Oilers for Hanifin.

  80. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Pouzar: That was quite the goal scorers goal

    Yup – that made his ‘slump buster’ all the better. He played a pretty nice game overall as well – hitting, backchecking and some smart passes. And his gaffe at the O-blueline during that PP was made up for by some great hustle.

    #herecomestheyakattack

  81. VanOil says:

    Woodguy: They are right actually.

    Way better than he was here.

    Also speaks to the quality of Philly Dmen and how much they’d pay the Oilers for Hanifin.

    They might also pay the Oilers for Fasth given Mason injury.

  82. Adam Wu says:

    GCW_69:
    Adam Wu,

    Just because Chicago has defied the scheduled loss story this season doesn’t mean the Oilers weren’t handed a nice advantage last night.As the season rolls on those scheduled losses get tougher. and tougher.

    And can you show me your work on calculating the Chicago drop off factor from 3 to 15?I would love to see it.

    An advantage big enough by itself to cancel out all the other massive advantages Chicago otherwise would have had over the Oilers? Enough that, by itself, we can accurately declare the game a “scheduled win” for the Oilers and a “scheduled loss” for the Blackhawks?

    And you want math even for metaphors? I salute your statistical rigor, sir!

  83. Black Frank says:

    Brackenburied: I honestly believe this is the only rational explanation for the handling of Petry; he just doesn’t want to be here. Damn shame.
    I suspect pride and prejudice came into play once MacT realized this. Damn shame.
    I also suspect (hope) that MacT is learning that player mentality (take a number, extract revenge) has no place in the GM world.

    It’s not binary. Every decision comes with a price. It’s not whether or not he wants to play here, it’s how much he requires to be paid to play here and for how long. They may want him but he may not be prepared to take a home town discount, or the home town discount goes to Detroit. If he’s asking much more than it will cost MacT to get a comparable D then MacT has to go for the better value. Also, Petry’s gritensity factor may not be high enough for MacT to warrant the overpay.

  84. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy: So you think Nelson can create an atmosphere that results in a 1078 PDO?

    I think he can get these guys to play together and instill some belief in ways Eakins obviously couldn’t.

    Canning Eakins was the right thing to do and long overdue. One could probably question whether he was ever the best option or that proper due diligence had been done.

    That’ is all.

  85. Taro Tsujimoto says:

    G Money:
    The Oilers are probably a playoff team in the Eastern Conference of the NHL.

    I’m not buying it.

    On a related note: all of a sudden the Pacific Division isn’t so scary…

    http://prohockeytalk.nbcsports.com/2015/01/09/all-of-a-sudden-the-pacific-division-isnt-so-scary/

  86. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    They have to throw in Omark, and a signed MacTavish jersey, and Gazdic. Thats six, count it again, six assets for one.

    But seriously, Nashville has zero reason to do this. They are not rebuilding and they cannot afford a rebuild cause their fanbase might disappear. They probably want to keep their 29 year old, 27 minute a night stud defenseman. His contract his top loaded with a lot of it paid early so in 3 1/2 years when he is still only 33 they will only have to pay him 6 mil a year. Only way they trade him is if a bigger name center comes back their way

  87. v4ance says:

    Woodguy: They are right actually.

    Way better than he was here.

    Also speaks to the quality of Philly Dmen and how much they’d pay the Oilers for Hanifin.

    Looking at Flyers’ player usage chart for defencemen who have played 10+ games:
    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2014_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=PHI&f4=D&f7=10-&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    Nultz with 43% ZS and 43% Corsi. It appears that the Flyers deploy their D with Nultz/Coburn as the main shutdown D zone pair and Streit is the O zone driver who gets paired with every other remaining D.

    Looking at NHL.com for even strength TOI/game numbers:
    Streit 18:11
    Coburn 17:11
    Del Zotto 17:07
    MacDonald 16:54
    Nultz 15:58
    Grossman 15:40
    Schenn 14:53

    Philly has really struggled and a large part of it is from their weak D group. Streit is their #1D, they don’t really have a #2 so they rotate everyone else in with him. #2 Coburn gets the tough D zone starts with #3 Nultz but Coburn gets some extra minutes on special teams and with other partners which gives him more time against easier comps.

    Nultz is doing well in his optimum role in Phily but he really shouldn’t be more than a 3rd pairing D on a playoff team.

  88. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    I have many Flyer fan friends. They tell me Del Zotto has actually been one of their two best defensemen all year. Yet he gets healthy scratched for 9 straight games because Berries and doing so while playing Macdonald, one of the worst defensemen in the NHL. You know, because contract.

    #becauseflyers
    Is a meme, too.

  89. VanOil says:

    v4ance: Nultz is doing well in his optimum role in Phily but he really shouldn’t be more than a 3rd pairing D on a playoff team.

    Ship them the other Schultz brother! They have great chemistry, honest.

  90. Bank Shot says:

    Keep in mind that Nultz was being blamed for dragging down Norris when he was here.

    Plus he was traded for the Blogoshperes favourite defenseman so he had an uphill battle the entire way to get any respect.

  91. Adam Wu says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL":
    I have many Flyer fan friends. They tell me Del Zotto has actually been one of their two best defensemen all year. Yet he gets healthy scratched for 9 straight games because Berries and doing so while playing Macdonald, one of the worst defensemen in the NHL. You know, because contract.

    #becauseflyers
    Is a meme, too.

    It’s the anti-Tolstoy!

    Successful hockey teams are each successful in their own way. The teams that suck are all the same!

  92. v4ance says:

    Bank Shot:
    Keep in mind that Nultz was being blamed for dragging down Norris when he was here.

    Plus he was traded for the Blogoshperes favourite defenseman so he had an uphill battle the entire way to get any respect.

    I never blamed Nultz for dragging down Jultz.

    I blamed him for being slow and ineffective no matter who he played with. I was one of Gilbert’s supporters but I tried to give Nultz a chance to prove himself. But after he crapped the bed so many times, there was no way to put lipstick on that pig.

  93. G Money says:

    Woodguy: So you think Nelson can create an atmosphere that results in a 1078 PDO?

    Whaaaaaaaat??! C’mon Woodguy.

    Scrivens and Fasth are now Vezina quality goalies at .95 sv% under Nelson.

    The Oilers forwards are now collectively hall of fame shooters at 12.6% under Nelson.

    Everyone knows that its head coaches that determine sh% and sv%.

  94. geowal says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    If finishing 30th means:

    1. Eichel or McDavid

    and finishing 27th means the majority (say 4 of 6 at a minimum) of the following is true:

    1. Found next year’s coach
    2. Roy has impressed enough to earn a cheap extension
    3. Yakupov is back on track as a prospect
    4. Petry starts enjoying himself enough to sign for 5 years
    5. Scrivens shows well enough to feel like he’ll be a very good 35 game backup next year
    6. We draft Strome/Hanifin/whoever and don’t see them on the roster until 2017-2018

    I’ll take option 2.

    Agreed. Option 2 please. focus on developing what you already have, which includes figuring out how to make this group win. Bring up Marincin too please.

  95. TheOtherJohn says:

    GCW_69:
    Adam Wu,

    Just because Chicago has defied the scheduled loss story this season doesn’t mean the Oilers weren’t handed a nice advantage last night.As the season rolls on those scheduled losses get tougher. and tougher.

    And can you show me your work on calculating the Chicago drop off factor from 3 to 15?I would love to see it.

    Minnesota to Edmonton is a horrific B2B. 1hour time change, 3 hour flight, clear customs and you are getting into bed after 2:30 am.

    But Oilers won and did witH scoring other than just top line

  96. wheatnoil says:

    G Money: Whaaaaaaaat??!C’mon Woodguy.

    Scrivens and Fasth are now Vezina quality goalies at .95 sv% under Nelson.

    The Oilers forwards are now collectively hall of fame shooters at 12.6% under Nelson.

    Everyone knows that its head coaches that determine sh% and sv%.

    I’m fairly certain PDO is just a measure of practice speed.

  97. oliveoilers says:

    wheatnoil: I’m fairly certain PDO is just a measure of practice speed.

    No, PDO is a 70s prog rock band, isn’t it?

  98. oliveoilers says:

    TheOtherJohn: Minnesota to Edmonton is a horrific B2B. 1hour time change, 3 hour flight, clear customs and you are getting into bed after 2:30 am.

    But Oilers won and did witH scoring other than just top line

    Don’t forget 5mins to check your bank balance of millions of dollars (maybe not Jack Johnson) so in bed for 0235am.

  99. Dee Dee says:

    Woodguy: The Oiler’s MO when it comes to in-season signings is to leave it to the last minute.

    That was Lowe’s MO and it continued through Tambellini.

    I don’t think they tried to sign anyone in season last year.Traded Hemmer and Nultz at the deadline and picked up Fasth, but I don’t think they signed anyone in season last year.

    Lowe stated that he likes to do it close to the deadline as “it gets done faster” when time is an issue.

    When Tambellini resigned Hemsky it was right at the deadline.

    .
    .
    .

    Lowe resigned Hemsky. Tambellini was waiting outside while Lowe and Hemsky/Agent negotiated in his office. They came out of the office and the GM was forced to ask how it went.

    They showed it on Oil Change.

  100. smellyglove says:

    Dee Dee: Lowe resigned Hemsky. Tambellini was waiting outside while Lowe and Hemsky/Agent negotiated in his office. They came out of the office and the GM was forced to ask how it went.

    They showed it on Oil Change.

    Dee Dee,

    Jesus. Talk about emasculation!

    Was this before or after Tambo did his “I’M the GM!” press tour in response to questions about who was in charge.

  101. book¡je says:

    smellyglove: Dee Dee,

    Jesus. Talk about emasculation!

    Was this before or after Tambo did his “I’M the GM!” press tour in response to questions about who was in charge.

    I think Tambellini’s ‘reign’ was something like this.

    Tambo 1.0 – Gets the job – talk of a team style management
    Tambo 2.0 – Fall for Hall starts – Tambo announces he has the authority to manage the team
    Tambo 3.0 – About a year later Tambellini announces that now he is really in charge. (I think this was the period he really did have full control).
    Tambo 4.0 – About 1 year prior to being fired, Lowe MacT, and Katz were pretty much running things with Tambellini left to sign Bishop.

    The Hemsky thing was in Tambo 4.0 I think.

  102. G Money says:

    oliveoilers: maybe not Jack Johnson

    Ouch!

  103. oliveoilers says:

    G Money: Ouch!

    Well, he started it.

  104. Woodguy says:

    cabbiesmacker: I think he can get these guys to play together and instill some belief in ways Eakins obviously couldn’t.

    Canning Eakins was the right thing to do and long overdue. One could probably question whether he was ever the best option or that proper due diligence had been done.

    That’ is all.

    I don’t disagree with anything you said there.

    I also thing he’s surfing the percentages pretty hard.

    Its nice when good luck happens to good people.

  105. Woodguy says:

    v4ance: Looking at Flyers’ player usage chart for defencemen who have played 10+ games:
    http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/usage.php?f1=2014_s&f2=5v5&f3=&f5=PHI&f4=D&f7=10-&bubbleType=corsiRel&yAxis=qoc&update-filters=Update+Results

    Nultz with 43% ZSand 43% Corsi.It appears that the Flyers deploy their D with Nultz/Coburn as the main shutdown D zone pair and Streit is the O zone driver who gets paired with every other remaining D.

    Looking at NHL.com for even strength TOI/game numbers:
    Streit 18:11
    Coburn 17:11
    Del Zotto 17:07
    MacDonald 16:54
    Nultz 15:58
    Grossman 15:40
    Schenn 14:53

    Philly has really struggled and a large part of it is from their weak D group.Streit is their #1D, they don’t really have a #2 so they rotate everyone else in with him.#2 Coburn gets the tough D zone starts with #3 Nultz but Coburn gets some extra minutes on special teams and with other partners which gives him more time against easier comps.

    Nultz is doing well in his optimum role in Phily but he really shouldn’t be more than a 3rd pairing D on a playoff team.

    Agreed.

    Which again speaks to PHI’s need for a stud Dman.

    A more pressing need than the Oilers’ actually.

    Let the Hanifin auction begin!!

  106. Woodguy says:

    VanOil: They might also pay the Oilers for Fasth given Mason injury.

    Is there a timeline on Mason’s injury yet?

  107. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy,

    They have to throw in Omark, and a signed MacTavish jersey, and Gazdic.Thats six, count it again, six assets for one.

    But seriously, Nashville has zero reason to do this.They are not rebuilding and they cannot afford a rebuild cause their fanbase might disappear.They probably want to keep their 29 year old, 27 minute a night stud defenseman.His contract his top loaded with a lot of it paid early so in 3 1/2 years when he is still only 33 they will only have to pay him 6 mil a year.Only way they trade him is if a bigger name center comes back their way

    Their system is still pretty weak in high end F’s, especially C’s and they are loaded on D.

    They still lose money every year.

    Offloading that contract while adding someone like Strome and Eberle + + might be pretty attractive to them.

  108. Woodguy says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL":
    I have many Flyer fan friends. They tell me Del Zotto has actually been one of their two best defensemen all year. Yet he gets healthy scratched for 9 straight games because Berries and doing so while playing Macdonald, one of the worst defensemen in the NHL. You know, because contract.

    #becauseflyers
    Is a meme, too.

    I follow some PHI fancystats people on twitter, and to their surprise Schenn has actually been one of their best Dmen, but can’t seem to leave the coach’s dog house.

    #becauseflyers

  109. Woodguy says:

    Dee Dee: Lowe resigned Hemsky. Tambellini was waiting outside while Lowe and Hemsky/Agent negotiated in his office. They came out of the office and the GM was forced to ask how it went.

    They showed it on Oil Change.

    I remember that and noting it on here at the time.

  110. v4ance says:

    Woodguy: Is there atimeline on Mason’s injury yet?

    Comcast SportsNet ‏@CSNPhilly
    A source tells http://CSNPhilly.com that Steve Mason (knee injury) is expected to miss a week. @TPanotchCSN: http://ow.ly/H74PL

  111. godot10 says:

    Woodguy:
    Offloading that contract while adding someone like Strome and Eberle + + might be pretty attractive to them.

    Excepting that Weber’s contract progressively becomes a more franchise friendly contract year by year. It was heavily front-loaded. Which means the actual dollars become manageable going forward, and the high AAV helps then reach the cap floor

  112. v4ance says:

    Woodguy,

    One thing that MIGHT entice Nashville to trade Weber is when they believe Seth Jones is ready to take over as a #1D. Right now Jones is 5th in TOI/game so I think it’s highly unlikely that a trade occurs this year.

    In two years, I could see a realistic option for Nashville to trade Shea Weber but I’d discount the rumors til then…

  113. Adam Wu says:

    v4ance: I never blamed Nultz for dragging down Jultz.

    I blamed him for being slow and ineffective no matter who he played with.I was one of Gilbert’s supporters but I tried to give Nultz a chance to prove himself.But after he crapped the bed so many times, there was no way to put lipstick on that pig.

    The issue with Jultz is the same issue with Yakupov. He never got an honest-to-goodness capable veteran D partner to cover his mistakes and tell him where to go in the defensive zone, and maybe kick him in the ass a few times when he went a-Jultzing. Nultz failed Jultz only in the sense that he was not that veteran sheltering guy, but he was never that kind of player to begin with.

  114. v4ance says:

    Adam Wu: The issue with Jultz is the same issue with Yakupov. He never got an honest-to-goodness capable veteran D partner to cover his mistakes and tell him where to go in the defensive zone, and maybe kick him in the ass a few times when he went a-Jultzing. Nultz failed Jultz only in the sense that he was not that veteran sheltering guy, but he was never that kid of player to begin with.

    But the story of the trade, as I remember it, was that Nultz WAS the vet who could support Jultz in his growing process. That was the reason for trading our most effective D in Gilbert for someone who had a previous reputation of being a stay at home D in Nultz. Looking at the analytics at the time, everything pointed to Nultz gradually losing effectiveness and icetime as he fell down the depth chart in Minny.

    I remember “hoping” Nultz could regain his form but suspecting he had done too many hard minutes in Minny. His play in Edmonton with everyone, and not just Jultz, confirmed to me that he was almost finished as an NHLer. I’m happy he’s doing okay in Philly but I don’t think Nick Schultz would make it as a defenceman for many teams in the NHL

    EDIT:
    Nick Schultz was brought in before we acquired Justin but the rationale for the trade remains the same. Nultz was brought in to improve the grit and competitiveness of the D corps and to shelter/mentor younger D like Smid, Petry, Peckham,Barker, Teubert, etc. because of his experience as a veteran shutdown D in Minny. He was brought in to replace the “butter soft” #1 D Gilbert, even though Gilbert had a better ability to drive play and generate an advantage in corsi.

  115. Pouzar says:

    Musil makes it 1-0 on a shot from the slot.

  116. Woodguy says:

    godot10: Excepting that Weber’s contract progressively becomes a more franchise friendly contract year by year.It was heavily front-loaded.Which means the actual dollars become manageable going forward, and the high AAV helps then reach the cap floor

    Weber has 2 more years at $14MM and two after that at $12MM.

    That’s $$52MM in the next 4 years.

    Then it drops to $6MM.

    That’s a ton of $$$ for a Dman who is posting a -14.7 RelCor

    He plays the toughs, but its become clear since Suter went to MIN that Weber/Suter was sum that was much, much greater than the parts and that Suter was better of the two.

    He hasn’t posted a positive RelCor since Suter left.

    He’s not worth his salary, not even close and NAS probably knows that.

    Get a pile of very good players/picks AND offload $52MM over the next 4 years?

    I’d do it.

  117. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy: Weber has 2 more years at $14MM and two after that at $12MM.

    That’s $$52MM in the next 4 years.

    Then it drops to $6MM.

    That’s a ton of $$$ for a Dman who is posting a -14.7 RelCor

    He plays the toughs, but its become clear since Suter went to MIN that Weber/Suter was sum that was much, much greater than the parts and that Suter was better of the two.

    He hasn’t posted a positive RelCor since Suter left.

    He’s not worth his salary, not even close and NAS probably knows that.

    Get a pile of very good players/picks AND offload $52MM over the next 4 years?

    I’d do it.

    There’s more to a defenseman then relative corsi. Fayne was the corsi Darling before he came to Edmonton. Now he has the worst relative corsi on the team.

    Coaching and team effects matter.

    Weber plays against the best and gets the shitty zone starts and he logs a tonne of minutes on the best team in the league.

    He’s third on the team in scoring to boot.

    How in the world is Nashville better off without him?

    If their number one defenceman is the boat anchor you are claiming him to be, how is Nashville number one in the league?

    The rest of the roster sure isn’t much to look at.

    I know Dellow was trying to.make a case that Relcorsi was the tell all stat for defensemen but he was barking so far up the wrong tree it was comical.

    Nashville has no interest in moving Weber. He’s worth every penny.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca