COMPLETE NHLE’S MID-SEASON

The NHL equivalencies I’ve used on this blog since forever are among the most popular items among readers. I’ve never posted a mid-season update across all leagues but think it may have some value in giving us an idea about who’s moving up and down the prospect charts. There are some surprises. I won’t mix up the leagues but rather list list players separately. (all numbers per 82gp).

I used Gabriel Desjardins’ numbers for the most part but also borrowed from Rob Vollman and various other online sources that have been passed along.

KHL

  1. Roman Horak 27-19-46
  2. Anton Slepyshev 13-10-23
  3. Daniil Zharkov 0-0-0

Horak has slowed down since mid-November but is having a splendid season. The Euro prospect I’m most interested in is Slepyshev, he enjoyed a strong Spengler Cup and has hit the ground running back in Russia. Corey Pronman’s comments (which I posted) this morning are also interesting.

SM-LIIGA

  1. Antti Tyrvainen 7-7-14

I don’t know that we’ll see him again.

USHL

  1. William Lagesson 1-11-12

USHL NHLE’s are a moving target but the offense is interesting.

BCJHL

  1. Liam Coughlin 5-9-14

NCAA

  1. Joey Laleggia 11-19-30
  2. Evan Campbell 9-15-24
  3. Tyler Vesel 6-16-22
  4. Aidan Muir 6-6-12
  5. John McCarron 0-7-7

I used Vollman’s brilliant numbers (he has a different once for each NCAA league) and Laleggia really shines in this light. Also interesting to see Campbell and Vesel performing well—Vesel as a college freshman.

CHL

  1. Leon Draisaitl 25-8-33
  2. Kyle Platzer 12-19-31
  3. Greg Chase 7-20-27
  4. Darnell Nurse 8-17-25
  5. Marco Roy 13-10-23
  6. Jackson Houck 9-12-21
  7. Ben Betker 2-8-10

Early days for Leon but fun numbers all the same. The Nurse total is also interesting, I think fans would be disappointed with that number but it does in fact represent a productive player—and combined with this defense should be a quality NHL player (if this in fact reflects his offense).

AHL

  1. Anton Lander 8-31-39
  2. Brad Hunt 11-26-37
  3. Andrew Miller 13-18-31
  4. Steve Pinizzotto 10-20-30
  5. Iiro Pakarinen 15-10-25
  6. Tyler Pitlick 8-16-24
  7. Curtis Hamilton 8-13-21
  8. Josh Winquist 10-10-20
  9. Jordan Oesterle 5-13-18
  10. Bogdan Yakimov 3-12-15
  11. Kale Kessy 6-7-13
  12. Kellen Jones 6-7-13
  13. Connor Jones 6-5-11
  14. Dillon Simpson 2-8-10
  15. Brandon Davidson 3-6-9
  16. CJ Ludwig 1-8-9
  17. Jujhar Khaira 1-5-6
  18. Martin Marincin 0-6-6
  19. David Musil 1-4-5
  20. Martin Gernat 0-5-5
  21. Travis Ewanyk 1-2-3
  22. Mitchell Moroz 0-3-3

Lots of fascinating things here (I didn’t use any player with fewer than 10 AHL games—Klefbom’s NHLE is 82gp, 9-24-33 btw) including Anton Lander posting a strong offensive total. Andrew Miller, Brad Hunt and Iiro Pakarinen post good numbers and Pitlick too had a good season going before recall. I think Curtis Hamilton might be the next forward walled up and Jordan Oesterle is surging from the blue.

Josh Winquist is a worthy follow too. I’ll do the same update at season’s end.

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105 Responses to "COMPLETE NHLE’S MID-SEASON"

  1. Woodguy says:

    I hope I’m not hijacking the thread early, but I wanted to respond to Bruce and thought it best here since there was a new thread.

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Well, Ekblad is a still-18-year-old d-man who is

    a) playing 22 minutes a night
    b) second on his team in scoring
    c) first on his team in plus-minus

    …this on a team that has surged from dregs of the league to playoff contention in a single bound. Meanwhile of the forwards drafted after him, only the recently-recalled #25 David Pastrnak is even in the NHL.

    I’m not bringing this up to rub your (highly respected!) noses in it, just to say that he was either a “sure fire Potvin” or at minimum an exemplar of the exception to your rule. Which I generally agree with, btw, but I remain open to new/evolving evidence. Score one for the defence with Mr. Ekblad.

    To be clear, Ekblad is exceeding expectations, but there are structural reasons why he’s in a position to exceed expectations.

    Great pick, but let’s look at some context.

    this on a team that has surged from dregs of the league to playoff contention in a single bound

    You cannot hand this to Ekblad, you hand it to Luongo and the progression of the other players along with Ekblad.

    Last year FLA’s SAF (score adjusted Fenwick) was 21st with 49% and the 30th place 5v5 SV% of .9081

    This year FLA’s SAF is 12th with 51.7% and have the 19th best 5v5 SV% with .9209

    They have improved in 5v5 play, but the biggest improvement in SV%.

    Also,

    Let’s not lose site of Ekblad playing with should-be-Norris winner Campbell.

    He runs the show there. Ekblad is helping him, but not as much as Campbell helps Ekblad.

    CF% 5v5:

    Campbell + Ekblad = 57.5%

    Campbell without Ekblad = 48.8%

    Ekblad without Campbell = 41.3%

    Ekblad is good, but he’s 18 and without Campell his results look a lot like a 18 year old Dman in the NHL. Below replacement.

    He’ll be a good one, but today he’s not that guy, he’s a good complimentary guy to Campbell and you cannot lose sight of that.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Lol. One of my favorite things about this blog is that what I write RARELY relates to the comments. I like it that way, doesn’t force me to post something because it’s expected (“Mark Arcobello a Penguin”) and doesn’t limit the considerable imagination of the comments.

    So, it’s all good WG! And I agree with you. 🙂

  3. RexLibris says:

    Watching Oesterle in the Penticton Tournament this fall I was impressed with his decision-making skills and passing.

    I highly value d-men who can quickly take the puck, move it to the open spot or skate it out of trouble. Oesterle did this repeatedly.

    To my eye he looked like he was accomplishing the things I was wanting to see, and occasionally did, from Simpson.

    There’s roughly 8 months difference (Simpson is younger) between the two, and Oesterle had fewer NCAA games than SImpson, but I think it will be interesting to watch the development of these two.

    I still think Simpson could become a player in the Petry fashion (stick-check – pass it out, rinse, repeat), but I was impressed with Oesterle.

  4. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Lol. One of my favorite things about this blog is that what I write RARELY relates to the comments. I like it that way, doesn’t force me to post something because it’s expected (“Mark Arcobello a Penguin”) and doesn’t limit the considerable imagination of the comments.

    So, it’s all good WG! And I agree with you.

    Speaking of digressions, are we going to run with the “Hamsters” thing from the previous thread?

    I had a vision of people wearing Edmonton Hamsters jerseys to games and watching the befuddled media try and explain it.

  5. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: Speaking of digressions, are we going to run with the “Hamsters” thing from the previous thread?

    I had a vision of people wearing Edmonton Hamsters jerseys to games and watching the befuddled media try and explain it.

    I like Hamsters so we’re good to go, but would like input about usage:

    1. Because Hamsters
    2. They’re hamstering in their own zone
    3. MacT went full hamster at the deadline
    4. Are you a hamster or are you a, well, a hamster?

    All good?

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Just for fun.

    KHL NHLE PPG

    Hartikainen: 40
    Omark: 57
    Rajala: 40 (21 games)

    SHL NHLE:
    Rajala: 45 (15 games)

    side bar: anyone know why Rajala jumped leagues this year?

  7. VanOil says:

    Woodguy,

    The Mentor role is something the Oilers have lacked since Horcoff left. A high end player would naturally benefit from more a high end Mentor.

    That is why I like the idea of picking up Joe Thornton for the last two season of his contract. Jumbo Joe playing 2nd line Center would help Yak and McEichel on his wings, plus provide cover for Draisaitl at #3 and support for Nuge at #1.

    My bid for him is Jultz, Pits 1st, +

  8. Lowetide says:

    Matt Henderson with a very interesting item on Jeff Petry

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/1/14/sources-say-no-offer-made-to-petry

  9. Woodguy says:

    Lowetide:
    Lol. One of my favorite things about this blog is that what I write RARELY relates to the comments. I like it that way, doesn’t force me to post something because it’s expected (“Mark Arcobello a Penguin”) and doesn’t limit the considerable imagination of the comments.

    So, it’s all good WG! And I agree with you.

    Thanks LT.

    Arco and Perron on the Pens warms my cold black heart.

    I have NYI winning the pennant there this year, but if TBY can’t stay healthy it will be PIT challenging them for it.

    Good times for those two.

    Also,

    If you ever wanted to quantify what FancyStats can do for you.

    Before the season I hit NYI to win the EC pennant at +3000

    That same bet today is +450.

    Because Information.

  10. Woodguy says:

    Matt Henderson says he has a source on Petry:

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/1/14/sources-say-no-offer-made-to-petry

    Money paragraphs:

    Jim Matheson of the Journal wrote in his Monday article here that “The puck is very much in Petry’s bag, though; only he knows if he’s tired of all these Oilers rebuilds and the mounting mountain of losses after being the team’s top pick (second round) in 2006.” Our source tells us that Petry very much does want to remain a part of the organization that Drafted him almost 9 years ago. He has been affiliated with Edmonton for a long time and wanted to see it through to better days. As exciting as it is to become a UFA, there’s a certain amount of loyalty that comes with belonging to an organization for almost a decade.

    Also:

    As each day passes without any contract discussion between the two sides the odds of Edmonton and Jeff Petry coming to an agreement on a new deal look worse and worse. During this process Petry has been described as “Perplexed” by the route the Oilers have taken with him.

  11. Bad Seed says:

    In the meantime, Jultz is mulling over the $5.5 x 6 offer recently tabled now that the Oilers don’t have to worry about paying that bum Petry.

  12. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Lowetide:
    Matt Henderson with a very interesting item on Jeff Petry

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/1/14/sources-say-no-offer-made-to-petry

    Wow. That stings. One of those situations where I’m horrified to be right (rarely happens, I know). But I’ve believed all of Petry’s positive quotes all along and have suggested management hasn’t approached Petry; I’ve felt like I’ve had to defend that stance an awful lot around here as most people suggested Jeff wants to leave because he is American, or because he wants too much money or whatever when the evidence has pointed to management dropping the ball all along.

    Like I’ve been by saying, the Oilers gave Petry his shot and that means something. And he likes Nelson, too.

    “We can’t have a bunch of 4m defensemen.”

    So you’re letting Jeff Petry go in favour of Nikitin, Ference and Schultz?

    Buy out Nikitin. Clowns. Because Hamsters.

  13. Lowetide says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL": Wow. That stings. One of those situations where I’m horrified to be right (rarely happens, I know). But I’ve believed all of Petry’s positive quotes all along and have suggested management hasn’t approached Petry; I’ve felt like I’ve had to defend that stance an awful lot around here as most people suggested Jeff wants to leave because he is American, or because he wants too much money or whatever when the evidence has pointed to management dropping the ball all along.

    Like I’ve been by saying, the Oilers gave Petry his shot and that means something. And he likes Nelson, too.

    “We can’t have a bunch of 4m defensemen.”

    So you’re letting Jeff Petry go in favour of Nikitin, Ference and Schultz?

    Buy out Nikitin. Clowns. Because Hamsters.

    Absolutely horrible management. Stunning. There’s no way to defend this move, none. Just isn’t.

    Nurse with 2 assists tonight. SSM is loaded now he may spike offensively.

  14. rickithebear says:

    Any prospect coming up to the team:
    Question #1 will they get any PP time?

    That is why EVP NHLE is best!

    I also like to look at players in a game by game basis in leagues higher than CHL.
    You get a definition of a players role and success with varying players.

    IE. Yakimov getting better results in EVPoints and +/- with C. Hamilton and Pakirinen than Lander

  15. book¡je says:

    So, lets recap the news today.

    1. No offer to Jeff Petry.
    2. Leon Draisaitl wanted to return to Junior

    That’s just today.

    I have defended MacT in the past, but anyone left defending him at this point must simply be blind.

    You may be able to blame your scouts for Nikitin, but the GM has to be aware enough of the game to understand it as well as a modestly informed fan. It’s clear that he is measuring ‘value’ by some criteria that differs from what has shown to be effective. He’s looking for the right attitude or something and it is costing this team tremendously.

    Katz is not ditching his friends so we are stuck with this for at least 2-3 years. We are entering rebuild #2 and can project rebuild #3. As LT would say ‘Lordy’.

    Edit: I suppose the one hope is that they really like Petry, but like to push the negotiations to the last minute.

    Second Edit: I just read the article and …. Lordy…

  16. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Lowetide,

    Wow. 9-3 SSM?
    Nick Ritchie 4 goals tonight.
    Nurse is romping all over the ice. At least I think that’s Nurse. My feed is really fuzzy!

  17. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear:
    Any prospect coming up to the team:
    Question #1 will they get any PP time?

    That is why EVP NHLE is best!

    I also like to look at players in a game by game basis in leagues higher than CHL.
    You get a definition of a players role and success with varying players.

    IE. Yakimov getting better results in EVPoints and +/- with C. Hamilton and Pakirinen than Lander

    Interesting. Yak-Ham-Pak are three of my favorite prospects down there would love to see them make it.

  18. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    book¡je,

    Rebuild #2? We’re on rebuild #4 by my count.

    1.0 started with Pronger and Smyth trades and putting together Gagner-Cogliano-Nilsson as the future
    2.0 started with the tank for Taylor Hall
    3.0 started with booting Tambo, Gagner, Cogliano, and the failed pieces of Rebuild 1.0
    4.0 started with the Perron trade.

  19. cabbiesmacker says:

    Woodguy:
    Matt Hendersonsays he has a source on Petry:

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/1/14/sources-say-no-offer-made-to-petry

    Money paragraphs:

    Jim Matheson of the Journal wrote in his Monday article here that “The puck is very much in Petry’s bag, though; only he knows if he’s tired of all these Oilers rebuilds and the mounting mountain of losses after being the team’s top pick (second round) in 2006.”

    Apparently Petry hasn’t received the memo regarding his need to kneel and kiss the 9 rings of wisdom if he wants a contract offer.

    Go figger Matheson is out to lunch. What a shill

  20. David says:

    book¡je:

    2. Leon Draisaitl wanted to return to Junior

    I saw all the comments on this in the last thread. Are we forgetting the side of the story that was Draisaitl would not go back to PA? I ‘m not sure if that came from Draisaitl or his agent or if it came from the Oilers. I had always thought it came from the Draisaitl camp. That if he didn’t make the Oilers he would go to Europe?

  21. cabbiesmacker says:

    Lowetide: Absolutely horrible management. Stunning.

    Brings to mind the old joke asking “what’s the difference between a Vegas strip club and the Cirque du Soleil? Ones a cunning array of stunts.

  22. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Follow

    Darren DregerVerified account
    ‏@DarrenDreger
    Dubnyk to the Wild for a 3rd round pick.

    Edit: sorry, I guess this is old news – I’m just getting back to my computer now…

    But I’ll keep it here, since were gnashing teeth about asset (mis)management.

    Edit 2: It looks like the Oilers will get three more chances to face off with Doobie this season.

  23. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Hope_Smoke @Hope_Smoke
    Follow
    McKenzie saying Maloney has gotten instructions to cut payroll and to go into full rebuild. Mentions that Vermette will be moved

    Hamsters, Tim, Hamsters.

  24. David says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    I know that MacT should have either signed a multi year deal with Petry or traded him in the off season but the Perron trade and the upcoming Petry trade for a first or a second, whatever it is, cannot be judged until after the draft where we see is MacT actually trading away useful NHLers in their prime for a hopeful player 5 years down the road? Or is he gathering currency for acquiring useful NHLers in their prime at a time when they can be had (at the draft)?

  25. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Nurse with 2 assists tonight. SSM is loaded now he may spike offensively.

    My guess was that with this guy

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=130876&encode=TRUE

    he might see his offensive numbers take a hit as Nurse gets more PK, more zone hell, more tough comp (than he’s already had somehow) and AD gets all the goodies.

  26. book¡je says:

    David:
    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    I know that MacT should have either signed a multi year deal with Petry or traded him in the off season but the Perron trade and the upcoming Petry trade for a first or a second, whatever it is, cannot be judged until after the draft where we see is MacT actually trading away useful NHLers in their prime for a hopeful player 5 years down the road? Or is he gathering currency for acquiring useful NHLers in their prime at a time when they can be had (at the draft)?

    So, maybe this whole 30th in the NHL is all part of the plan and we should put our trust in MacT to fulfil the rest of the plan?

    I used to give MacT the benefit of the doubt. He has lost that, now he gets the doubt.

  27. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Maloney has gotten instructions to cut payroll and to go into full rebuild.

    Wait – I thought it was ‘max out payroll and go into full rebuild’?

  28. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    David,

    David,

    This isn’t directed at you. Just tired of being told it was Petry who wanted out and it isn’t MacT’s fault.
    I’m not judging his return for Petry because I haven’t seen it yet.

    I do feel it never should have come to this in the first place, and they are sending away the wrong guy.

    Petry as a deadline rental does not fetch you the kind of return Petry as a player deserves. That’s just bad asset management.

    The Oilers spent a 2nd round pick on him, groomed him slowly for almost NINE years. And as he enters his prime, they are going to send him away for what will probably be another 2nd round pick (I will wait to judge the return) because Petry never became the “complete” defenseman they thought he’d be (i.e., MOAR HITS, MOAR CANNONADING SLAP SHOTS). This is the epitome of a hamster spinning the wheel. Rebuild 4.0, rebuild ad infinitum.

    I’m sorry, David, but I just can’t give these clowns the benefit of the doubt anymore.

  29. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: Wait – I thought it was ‘max out payroll and go into full rebuild’?

    Ha ha. That’s the Oilers’ MO. Last place cap team. The Yotes’ well, Yotes eat hamsters for breakfast (5-0 this year is it?).

  30. David says:

    book¡je,

    I don’t give MacT the benefit of the doubt either. He seems to be a one step forward one step backward GM. Which is slightly better than One step forward two steps backward but not nearly good enough.

  31. Bad Seed says:

    David,

    What are these forward steps you speak of?

  32. Snowman says:

    Good gord. If Petry wants to stay and the Oilers ship him out and give Schultz anything more than another bridge Im going to flip. That would be insane. I’ll be fully in the fire everyone and then fire everyone who talks to them camp. You dont trade your best player in a weak position. This summer could truly become an unmitigated disaster that sets this already wayward organisation on a path of wandering in the desert for 40 years…Another 40 years. This is a dangerous time.

  33. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Kelowna Rockets ‏@Kelowna_Rockets 49s50 seconds ago
    Line Combo’s for Tonights Game Vs. Tri-City
    Goulbourne-Chartier-Merkley
    Kirkland-Draisaitl-Baillie
    Braid-Linaker-Southam
    Dube-Quinney

    2nd line… hmmmm

  34. David says:

    Bad Seed:
    David,

    What are these forward steps you speak of?

    I guess we’re all more than angry at the Oilers management group eh?

    Unfortunately for MacT he has come into an organization that has been horribly managed for years already and fans were already fed up. If this wasn’t the case he would have more time in the eyes of the fans.

    Lists of MacT’s successes have already been made. Anyone who wants to deny any good is just to upset (justifiably) with the Oilers to see it.

    I am in no way a MacT supporter. I’d fire him today if I had the power. Not much faith in him. But Petry isn’t gone yet. And we haven’t yet seen MacT’s roster for 2015/2016.

  35. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Yotes eat hamsters for breakfast (5-0 this year is it?).

    Yeah, 5 – 0 I believe, with Doobie getting four of those wins? He’ll get three more wins from us wearing green now.

    And now watch the Yotes rack up a lot of tank points, pile up another first round pick or two from trades, draft top two, sign some good veterans, and make the playoffs next year with a manageable cap number.

    Meanwhile in Edmonton:

    Ride a painted hamster

    Let the spinnin’ wheel spin…

  36. Bad Seed says:

    David,

    I’d say that MacT is following very closely in his predecessor’s footsteps.

  37. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Power forward who might be in the ’16 draft:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IRZD-CEEV8&list=TLHqoCjY0OTuQ&t=16

  38. VanOil says:

    David,

    NYCOIL is correct it is Rebuild #4 regardless of the return from any dreamed of Draft dealings. MacT traded away last seasons top scorer for a 4th liner and a draft pick that equals Rebuild.

    If as Henderson is reporting MacT is also moving on from the teams best Defender that also equals Rebuild.

    When a GM moves on from the previous seasons top scorer and top defender it equals Full Rebuild, if the Oilers had a #1 goalie he would be rebuilt too.

    It is possible MacT could at the draft chose to rebuild with more experienced pieces than prospects by trading draft picks. Given the Oilers Pro Scouts make the Oilers Amateur Scouts look like geniuses this could be ugly.

  39. Ben says:

    This Petry thing…jesus. They’re gonna be bad forever, aren’t they?

  40. Bobbin Roundlee says:

    book¡je:

    Katz is not ditching his friends so we are stuck with this for at least 2-3 years.We are entering rebuild #2 and can project rebuild #3.As LT would say ‘Lordy’.

    Wow. Just wow re Petry.

    What’s going to happen in a couple of years when the draft picks aren’t determined by incompetence? Well? What then Mr. Katz? You’re stuck with this arena for the next few dozen years. Whatcha gonna do when the Rush outsell the Oilers?

  41. wheatnoil says:

    Well, they can’t keep Petry. They need to make room for Nurse to take his minutes. Didn’t you see him at the World Juniors? He’ll have some bumps along the way, but this will be better for his development… he should probably come into form some time around Christmas. The games in October and November don’t count for much anyways.

    *sigh* You know, my parents never let me have a hamster when I was a kid. I begged and begged but they wouldn’t do it. Said it was a bad idea. I remember being so upset with them.

    Now I understand, mom and dad. Now I understand.

  42. PunjabiOil says:

    Yeah, inexcusable news on Petry. Fire-able actually.

    A solid 2nd pairing defenceman who is entering the prime of his career – you’ll dump him for a 2nd round pick? And what happens when you can’t replace him in the summer?

    Cycle perpetuates.

    I have no reason to doubt that article.

    – Petry indicates he’s open for talks for extension.
    – Friedman suggests the Oilers don’t overly like him.
    – Stauffer suggesting recently that the Oilers may be wrong on their evaluation of Petry.
    – Detroit beat writer said Oilers asked for Helm for Petry in the summer.
    – Verbal comments from MacT concerning Justin Schultz being a priority last summer. Also comments that they can’t have too many defenceman making 4M.
    – 1 year extension to Petry – when longer term should have been the priority.

    And you know, the cycle perpetuates.

    MacT may not be better than Steve Tambellini.

    Uncomfortable truths.

  43. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Ben: They’re gonna be bad forever, aren’t they?

    It’ll be okay Ben. The league will eventually scrap the playoffs anyway, and just hand out participation ribbons. The Oilers will then be able to hang a new banner in that aging, decrepit old Oil Dome…

  44. PunjabiOil says:

    Whatcha gonna do when the Rush outsell the Oilers.

    Patrick LaForge will blame it on the weather.

    What a twat.

  45. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Hamsters, Tim, Hamsters.

    Meanwhile in the Kingsway offices.

    This explains everything today! Smartest hamster in the cage!

  46. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Auston Matthews ’16,

    Ha ha ha. You’re going the wrong way! That’s a great gif.

  47. Ryan says:

    Bad Seed:
    David,

    What are these forward steps you speak of?

    By my count, Barbashev and PRV for Perron. Mind you, Barbashev is looking pretty good, so we’ll see.

    Too bad that possible step forward was erased when Perron was traded to the Pens.

  48. wheatnoil says:

    Regarding this evening’s post… that Horak NHL-E is damn impressive. MacT has a tendency to be stubborn and the fact that Horak bolted to the KHL may not give him another chance with this organization, but I do hope the GM is paying attention to Horak’s success over there. He’s a reasonable option for a one-way contract.

    Now, his numbers may be padded by PP time, etc, which he may or may not get on this side of the pond, but it’s still a reasonable bet. He didn’t look bad in OKC at the end of last year either.

  49. Ryan says:

    PunjabiOil:
    Yeah, inexcusable news on Petry.Fire-able actually.

    A solid 2nd pairing defenceman who is entering the prime of his career – you’ll dump him for a 2nd round pick? And what happens when you can’t replace him in the summer?

    Cycle perpetuates.

    I have no reason to doubt that article.

    – Petry indicates he’s open for talks for extension.
    – Friedman suggests the Oilers don’t overly like him.
    – Stauffer suggesting recently that the Oilers may be wrong on their evaluation of Petry.
    – Detroit beat writer said Oilers asked for Helm for Petry in the summer.
    – Verbal comments from MacT concerning Justin Schultz being a priority last summer. Also comments that they can’t have too many defenceman making 4M.
    – 1 year extensionto Petry – when longer term should have been the priority.

    And you know, the cycle perpetuates.

    MacT may not be better than Steve Tambellini.

    Uncomfortable truths.

    Not a word out of place.

  50. MrEd says:

    Not having Capgeek around is really bugging me.
    However, not having Capgeek is cleansing.

    Methot-Boychuk
    Klef-Fayne
    Marincin-Schultz
    Aulie

    Pay what’s required.
    I think that Eberle and Schutz will be the cost. Yak and Laleggia will slot in.

  51. MrEd says:

    To be clear. Laleggia will spend the year in the AHL with Nurce in the AHL next year.

  52. Jon K says:

    Lowetide:
    Matt Henderson with a very interesting item on Jeff Petry

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/1/14/sources-say-no-offer-made-to-petry

    Absolutely pathetic if true. And it appears remarkably similar to other situations where the Oilers fall in love with a golden boy and let legitimate NHL talent walk for little to nothing in return (Pouliot over Brodziak, Gagner over Cogliano, any number of forwards from 2007-2008 over Glencross, etc.).

    Then again, maybe it’s just the Oilers way to hate smooth skating finesse defenders from college. We can call it the Gilbert curse. He seems pretty happy over in Montreal on one of the league’s better teams. Good for him.

    Cheering for a hockey team shouldn’t be so hard.

  53. Pouzar says:

    We are going to suck again next year aren’t we. I mean…Jultz over Petry? WTF.

    Also, I fear Hall is gone this offseason. Just a hunch.

  54. GCW_69 says:

    Steve Pinizzotto 10-20-30

    This really hurts the credibility of the NHLe process.

  55. Lowetide says:

    GCW_69:
    Steve Pinizzotto 10-20-30

    This really hurts the credibility of the NHLe process.

    Why? He’s playing a more offensive role in the AHL but he’s basically on a point per game run down there. PLayers is what they is.

  56. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: Absolutely horrible management. Stunning. There’s no way to defend this move, none. Just isn’t.

    The only thing that surprises me is that anyone is surprised about how bad this management group is. Cassie Campbell had it right. Living in the 80s. Except that hasn’t worked since the 80s.

    We suffer…

  57. wheatnoil says:

    GCW_69:
    Steve Pinizzotto 10-20-30

    This really hurts the credibility of the NHLe process.

    Vollman has done some work regarding NHL-E and age in the AHL. I’ll try to find it if I have time here. There seems to be a different NHL-E for forwards in the AHL once they hit a certain age (22 I think? 23?) Below that age, they have a much higher NHL-E, carrying more offense with them to the NHL. Past that age, they have a much lower NHL-E. It’s a really interesting read… I’ll post it a little later if I can find it. It does reflect why AHL veterans can rip up the AHL, but struggle carrying that offence into the NHL.

  58. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: Why? He’s playing a more offensive role in the AHL but he’s basically on a point per game run down there. PLayers is what they is.

    And what he is at the NHL level is 36 GP, 2-4-6. Not even close to 10-20-30.

  59. Derek says:

    GCW_69:
    Steve Pinizzotto 10-20-30

    This really hurts the credibility of the NHLe process.

    NHLE assumes a player will play similar minutes in the next league, not 5 minutes a night on the fourth line. It’s also meant as a reference point for developing players across different leagues, not so much for a finished product in the AHL.

    Edit: Looks like everyone is way ahead of me.

  60. Ryan says:

    GCW_69: The only thing that surprises me is that anyone is surprised about how bad this management group is.Cassie Campbell had it right. Living in the 80s.Except that hasn’t worked since the 80s.

    We suffer…

    Still curious. Are you the former GCW_ROCKS?

  61. frjohnk says:

    frjohnk: For a top 5, I think its less risky to take a defenceman than a guy with a late birthday who as a 17 year old does not have a great year. But has a great 18 year old season. There are quite a few of these who don’t cover the bet.

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    How many are there?

    From the last thread. These are guys drafted in the top 10 from the CHL. These are guys with late birthdates picked in the top 10 who did not have great seasons as a 17 year old but looked dominant as a 18 yearold and went high in the draft.

    2004
    Alexandre Picard

    2005
    Benoit Pouliot

    2006
    Derek Brassard

    2007
    Karl Azner
    Zach Hamill
    Keaton Ellerby

    2008
    Luke Schenn
    Josh Bailey

    2010
    Alexander Burmistrov

    None of these guys have covered the bet on where they were drafted.

    Guys who had late birthdays and that were drafted in the top 10 but are stars or at least covered the bet on their draft number all have a common theme. Really good to Great 17 year old seasons.
    Patrick Kane,
    Drew Doughty,
    John Tavares,
    Taylor Hall
    Sean Courtier

    There are three guys who had OK 17 year old seasons but have covered the bet on their draft number.
    Eric Staal had 1.1 points per game as a 17 year old in 2001
    Nazem Kadri had 0.98 points per game as a 17 year old in 2008
    Gabriel Landeskog had 0.75 points per game as a 17 year old in 2010

    Getting back to Leon Draisiatl he scored 0.9 points in his 17 year old season. If born 6 weeks earlier where does he go in the 2013 draft with those numbers?

    My concern is that with butter soft competion and OZ starts of 79% in the NHL he scored as a 19 year old at a pace of James Sheppard, Gilbert Brule, Alexander Burmistrov, Brett Connelly,

    But then again guys like Keith Primeau, Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Ryan Johanssen and Petr Nedved scored in the same range at 19.

    But I doubt any had the soft competition, PP time and OZ starts that Drasaitl had.

    I said it last year and still hold to it; when drafting guys with late birthdays the key to is to look at the 17 year old season.

    When I look at a prospect, I look at
    league,
    stats
    birthday.
    If he is a late birthday I look at the previous years number and will sometimes average the 17 and 18 year old season out. ( Its just another way to look at things)

    So for the number 2,3 and 4 picks last year
    Leon Draisiatl ( averaging his 17 year old and 18 year old season)
    64 games 30 goals 52 assists 82 points. 1.28 points/game

    Sam Reinhart ( averaging his 17 year old and 18 year old season)
    66 games 35 goals 60 assists 95 points, 1.44 points/game

    Sam Bennett ( his 17 yearold season)
    57 games 36 goals 55 assists 91 points, 1.6 points/game

    Overall when looking at all these players, this is why I believe picking a guy with a late birthday is even riskier than picking a D man in the top 10. Especially when said players 17 year old season is not dynamic. Sure there are outliers and not just the top 10. And there are guys that are picked in the top 10 who are not late birthdates who dont cover the bet as well. But late birthdate players are risky in my book.

  62. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: I like Hamsters so we’re good to go, but would like input about usage:

    1. Because Hamsters
    2. They’re hamstering in their own zone
    3. MacT went full hamster at the deadline
    4. Are you a hamster or are you a, well, a hamster?

    All good?

    Number 4 reminds me of this song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8I1w7uGvzw

    Jason Segel, Amy Adams, written by Bret McKenzie (Flight of the Conchords).

  63. frjohnk says:

    wheatnoil: Vollman has done some work regarding NHL-E and age in the AHL. I’ll try to find it if I have time here. There seems to be a different NHL-E for forwards in the AHL once they hit a certain age (22 I think? 23?) Below that age, they have a much higher NHL-E, carrying more offense with them to the NHL. Past that age, they have a much lower NHL-E. It’s a really interesting read… I’ll post it a little later if I can find it. It does reflect why AHL veterans can rip up the AHL, but struggle carrying that offence into the NHL.

    You are right, I looked at it the other day, Lander is something like 9 goals 20 assists 29 points.

  64. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Woodguy:
    I hope I’m not hijacking the thread early, but I wanted to respond to Bruce and thought it best here since there was a new thread.

    To be clear, Ekblad is exceeding expectations, but there are structural reasons why he’s in a position to exceed expectations.

    Great pick, but let’s look at some context.

    this on a team that has surged from dregs of the league to playoff contention in a single bound

    You cannot hand this to Ekblad, you hand it to Luongo and the progression of the other players along with Ekblad.

    Last year FLA’s SAF (score adjusted Fenwick) was 21st with 49% and the 30th place 5v5 SV% of .9081

    This year FLA’s SAF is 12th with 51.7% and have the 19th best 5v5 SV% with .9209

    They have improved in 5v5 play, but the biggest improvement in SV%.

    Also,

    Let’s not lose site of Ekblad playing with should-be-Norris winner Campbell.

    He runs the show there.Ekblad is helping him, but not as much as Campbell helps Ekblad.

    CF% 5v5:

    Campbell + Ekblad = 57.5%

    Campbell without Ekblad = 48.8%

    Ekblad without Campbell = 41.3%

    Ekblad is good, but he’s 18 and without Campell his results look a lot like a 18 year old Dman in the NHL.Below replacement.

    Ekblad’s sample size away from. Campbell is very small, under two hours. If we’re going to cite tiny samples why not go with this one?

    Campbell without Ekblad = +3 / -9
    Ekblad without Campbell = +9 / -5

    i will grant you that Campbell is hugely important, far more than boxcars might suggest (BC’s 3-8-11, +2 pale in comparison with AE’s 5-19-24, +10) , but Ekblad has been delivering the goods big time to this point.

    Also i did not mean to suggest that FLA’s turnaround was solely due to Ekblad, just that he’s been performing in meaningful games with a relevant team & getting the job done. For 22 minutes a night. At minimum he’s performing at the level of a top 4 NHL defender in his 18 year old season, which is no mean feat.

    Having a Real NHL goalie behind him is a huge help, I have no doubt.

  65. Chunklets says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:

    side bar: anyone know why Rajala jumped leagues this year?

    He was let go by his KHL team to free up a foreign player slot so that they could bring in Barry Brust.

  66. Ryan says:

    RexLibris: Number 4 reminds me of this song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e8I1w7uGvzw

    Jason Segel, Amy Adams, written by Bret McKenzie (Flight of the Conchords).

    We need a coach like Rex Ryan.

  67. RexLibris says:

    Read the ON Petry article.

    I’m actually alright with this.

    Here’s the thing, either a real forensic analysis will show that the Oilers, and by this I mean MacTavish, Lowe and Howson, royally screwed up by letting Jeff Petry go…

    or

    the forensic analysis will exonerate them and thereby undermine it’s own credibility meaning that we’ll have an eternal continuation of the status quo rubber stamped by an internal process and the organization that runs the team I love (please note the distinction) will become a satire within the league to an extent unmatched by even the Islanders under Milbury and Snow.

    So, either their hens come home to roost and we have change, or the music doesn’t stop and this thing gets even worse.

  68. Ryan says:

    Ryan: We need a coach like Rex Ryan.

    Actually, I just like his name.

  69. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    What happens when Mr. Hamster finds Missus Hamster (Hamsterette?) and they start to breed?
    Oh wait, it’s like taking GM Lowe and adding GM Tambo. Then adding MacT and Olczyk to advise GM Tambo. Then AGM Olczyk ate the poisoned cheese but never fear, because AGM Howson is added. And then GM Tambo gets culled for pooping in the food dish, so GM MacT is promoted. But then Bob Green is added to advise GM MacT and head of amateur hamstering, MBS. But still the wheel spins so they add Chief Forensic Auditor Bob Nicholson.

    So, I guess the answer to my question is “You already know the answer.” This is turning into a multi-headed RAT KING, I mean, Hamster King.

    Also,

    3. MacT went full hamster at the deadline
    NEVER go full hamster!

  70. fifthcartel says:

    Todd Nelson’s agent in Tampa Bay? If they commit now I just would not understand that.

  71. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: NEVER go full hamster!

    The first person to bring up Richard Gere gets banned…

  72. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    RexLibris,

    I’d submit that by virtue of being in a hockey hotbed under the microscope and thanks to the ignominy of three #1 picks in a row, the Oiler satire has reached well beyond Snow Islanders levels. It’s definitely rivaling Milbury-Wang Islander misery–unfair, I know, but if you read the articles at sites like SI, ESPN, as well as the Canadian MSM sites, everything is an attack/indictment on the Oilers, their players (trade their stars to shake it all up because they are the problem cause the team can’t win–BS!), and recently, their fans (jersey tossing or Orange for McDavid-ing)

  73. Ryan says:

    RexLibris:
    Read the ON Petry article.

    I’m actually alright with this.

    Here’s the thing, either a real forensic analysis will show that the Oilers, and by this I mean MacTavish, Lowe and Howson, royally screwed up by letting Jeff Petry go…

    or

    the forensic analysis will exonerate them and thereby undermine it’s own credibility meaning that we’ll have an eternal continuation of the status quo rubber stamped by an internal process and the organization that runs the team I love (please note the distinction) will become a satire within the league to an extent unmatched by even the Islanders under Milbury and Snow.

    So, either their hens come home to roost and we have change, or the music doesn’t stop and this thing gets even worse.

    Is this a new type of synecdoche?

  74. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: The first person to bring up Richard Gere gets banned…

    Ha ha ha. Oh boy. Are you banning yourself? Or is that just a 2 min penalty for “unsportsmanlike conduct,” not that there’s anything wrong with that!

  75. Ryan says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    RexLibris,

    I’d submit that by virtue of being in a hockey hotbed under the microscope and thanks to the ignominy of three #1 picks in a row, the Oiler satire has reached well beyond Snow Islanders levels. It’s definitely rivaling Milbury-Wang Islander misery–unfair, I know, but if you read the articles at sites like SI, ESPN, as well as the Canadian MSM sites, everything is an attack/indictment on the Oilers, their players (trade their stars to shake it all up because they are the problem cause the team can’t win–BS!), and recently, their fans (jersey tossing or Orange for McDavid-ing)

    I’m with coppernblue. Fire’em all just to be safe.

  76. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    frjohnk:
    frjohnk: For a top 5, I think its less risky to take a defenceman than a guy with a late birthday who as a 17 year old does not have a great year. But has a great 18 year old season. There are quite a few of these who don’t cover the bet.

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    How many are there?

    From the last thread.These are guys drafted in the top 10 from the CHL. These are guys with late birthdates picked in the top 10 who did not have great seasons as a 17 year old but looked dominant as a 18 yearold and went high in the draft.

    2004
    Alexandre Picard

    2005
    Benoit Pouliot

    2006
    Derek Brassard

    2007
    Karl Azner
    Zach Hamill
    Keaton Ellerby

    2008
    Luke Schenn
    Josh Bailey

    2010
    Alexander Burmistrov

    None of these guys have covered the bet on where they were drafted.

    Guys who had late birthdays and that were drafted in the top 10 but are stars or at least covered the bet on their draft number all have a common theme.Really good to Great 17 year old seasons.
    Patrick Kane,
    Drew Doughty,
    John Tavares,
    Taylor Hall
    Sean Courtier

    There are three guys who had OK 17 year old seasons but have covered the bet on their draft number.
    Eric Staal had 1.1 points per game as a 17 year old in 2001
    Nazem Kadri had 0.98 points per game as a 17 year old in 2008
    Gabriel Landeskog had 0.75 points per game as a 17 year old in 2010

    Getting back to Leon Draisiatl he scored 0.9 points in his 17 year old season.If born 6 weeks earlier where does he go in the 2013 draft with those numbers?

    My concern is that with butter soft competion and OZ starts of 79% in the NHL he scored as a 19 year old at a pace of James Sheppard, Gilbert Brule, Alexander Burmistrov, Brett Connelly,

    But then again guys like Keith Primeau, Shane Doan, Ryan Smyth, Ryan Johanssen and Petr Nedved scored in the same range at 19.

    But I doubt any had the soft competition, PP time and OZ starts that Drasaitl had.

    I said it last year and still hold to it; when drafting guys with late birthdays the key to is to look at the 17 year old season.

    When I look at a prospect, I look at
    league,
    stats
    birthday.
    If he is a late birthday I look at the previous years number and will sometimes average the 17 and 18 year old season out. ( Its just another way to look at things)

    So for the number 2,3 and 4 picks last year
    Leon Draisiatl ( averaging his 17 year old and 18 year old season)64 games 30 goals 52 assists 82 points. 1.28 points/game

    Sam Reinhart ( averaging his 17 year old and 18 year old season)
    66 games 35 goals 60 assists 95 points, 1.44 points/game

    Sam Bennett ( his 17 yearold season)
    57 games 36 goals 55 assists 91 points, 1.6 points/game

    Overall when looking at all these players, this is why I believe picking a guy with a late birthday is even riskier than picking a D man in the top 10.Especially when said players 17 year old season is not dynamic.Sure there are outliers and not just the top 10.And there are guys that are picked in the top 10 who are not late birthdates who dont cover the bet as well.But late birthdate players are risky in my book.

    Interesting list.

    Strange that you went from top 5 forwards, to top ten including D.

    I’m going to ignore the D so apples to apples.

    Some of the forwards don’t make sense in a “don’t cover their bet” way of thinking, unless one takes an “ideal situation only = success POV”

    Others, like Pouliot, don’t fit the mold as he only played 4 games in his 17 year old season in the CHL and scored at the same rate as in his 18 (1 PPG exactly). Not that it matters given the sample size.

    Or, Burmistrov… who was in Russia in his 17 year old season.

    And, none of these players listed hit the way LD did in his 18 year old season. Some well, well back of his scoring pace.

    ———

    By and large I think the age adjusted PPG rates are very important when evaluating prospects. I always take them into account.

    After that, I think scoring at EVs is far more important than prior year scoring, though I’m happy to acknowledge it is relevant.

    In the case of Draisaitl, it is somewhat relevant to note that his 17 year old season was his first in NA. This is, I think, a unique situation among the list you compiled.

  77. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Marco with an assist tonight
    Tkachev with a goal
    Nurse 2As
    Leon 1A (in progress)

  78. Cameron says:

    RexLibris:
    Read the ON Petry article.

    I’m actually alright with this.

    Here’s the thing, either a real forensic analysis will show that the Oilers, and by this I mean MacTavish, Lowe and Howson, royally screwed up by letting Jeff Petry go…

    or

    the forensic analysis will exonerate them and thereby undermine it’s own credibility meaning that we’ll have an eternal continuation of the status quo rubber stamped by an internal process and the organization that runs the team I love (please note the distinction) will become a satire within the league to an extent unmatched by even the Islanders under Milbury and Snow.

    So, either their hens come home to roost and we have change, or the music doesn’t stop and this thing gets even worse.

    If I were an Oiler fan, I’d be more than a little nervous about what that forensic audit is going to uncover. If we assume (as I do) that it will mean Kevin Lowe, MacT, and the scouting staff are gassed, that core players are shopped in trades, and that Nicholson wants to bring in all new guys to start things over, you’ll BE STARTING OVER.

    It means you live in Cambodia, and it is ‘Year Zero’.

    Again.

  79. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Cameron: If I were an Oiler fan, I’d be more than a little nervous about what that forensic audit is going to uncover. If we assume (as I do) that it will mean Kevin Lowe, MacT, and the scouting staff are gassed, that core players are shopped in trades, and that Nicholson wants to bring in all new guys to start things over, you’ll BE STARTING OVER.

    It means you live in Cambodia, and it is ‘Year Zero’.

    Again.

    Again… Hockey Canada is basically The Edmonton Oilers.

    The rumor, btw, that the Oilers are going to hire Ryan Jankowski should scare the hell out of all of us.

  80. wheatnoil says:

    wheatnoil: Vollman has done some work regarding NHL-E and age in the AHL. I’ll try to find it if I have time here. There seems to be a different NHL-E for forwards in the AHL once they hit a certain age (22 I think? 23?) Below that age, they have a much higher NHL-E, carrying more offense with them to the NHL. Past that age, they have a much lower NHL-E. It’s a really interesting read… I’ll post it a little later if I can find it. It does reflect why AHL veterans can rip up the AHL, but struggle carrying that offence into the NHL.

    frjohnk: You are right, I looked at it the other day, Lander is something like 9 goals 20 assists 29 points.

    frjohnk: Do you know where to find the age-related equivalencies? I swear I read it less than a year ago, but can’t find it now. I wonder if it’s been taken down and put in one of Vollman’s Hockey Abstract books, but it’s not in the 2014 one that I have.

    Here’s two posts that I did find anyways…

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/article.php?articleid=1079

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/article.php?articleid=337

    In the first link, Vollman describes how the AHL to NHL translation is different depending on scoring level. AHLers that score >1 point per game actually carry less of their offense to the NHL (NHL-E is 0.34 instead of the usually quoted 0.45). If you’re a low scoring AHLer, the equivalency is a little higher than expected (0.53 for those only getting 0.25 points per game). This kind of makes sense to me. You might be rocking the AHL, but that’s probably on the back of power play time and first line minutes that you’re not going to get when you jump to the NHL… because, you’re playing the AHL for a reason and that reason is why you’re not likely to end up as a first liner in the NHL. On the other hand, if you’re a low scoring AHLer, it’s probably because you’re getting bottom-six minutes, which is a little closer to what you’ll actually get if you do get called up the NHL. Plus, if you’re only scoring 20 points in 80 games, it’s hard to get TOO much lower than 10 points in the NHL over a season.

    In the second link, Vollman talks about age and the AHL. Now, I know I came across another article that came to more distinct numbers to help translate AHL to NHL above and below particular ages, but I can’t find it. This article, though, does describe how there seems to be an age factor in translating AHL to NHL scoring. If you’re 20 to 22 years old, you’ll carry more of your offence with you to the NHL than if you’re 23 or above. Things stay pretty steady until age 28, when there’s a drop off again. This also makes sense. If you’re young, you’re probably developing and improving yearly, so when you jump to the NHL, you continue to improve. As the prospect gets older, there’s less improvement and there’s also probably a reason why they’re in the AHL above age 23 and again above age 28.

    I think the lesson from all this is that we need to be careful with translating AHL scoring to NHL scoring. A couple lessons I take from these Vollman articles in summary. 1) Older prospects / AHL veterans are not likely to carry the amount of offence you expect them to when they jump to the NHL. 2) “Older Prospect” is 23 or older, which is younger than I would have thought (though it nicely matches up with LT’s ‘Five Years Post-Draft’ line). 3) Higher scoring AHLers will not carry as much offence to the NHL as you expect them to, especially if they’re not young (i.e. point per game AHL players don’t typically jump to the NHL and get close to 40 points, even if their NHL-Es say they will).

    One additional point, these articles are on the AHL, but Vollman does state that he suspects these observations are likely true of other leagues as well. With that in mind, Horak is now 23 years old. Is 23 the magic number where there’s a decline in equivalencies in the KHL? I don’t know. In his defense, he did almost score well in OKC last year when he was 22.

  81. wheatnoil says:

    That all said, Vollman also states in one of those articles: “The next step is an evolutionary one, where the linear approach is replaced with a more multivariate model that seeks to understand the context of a player’s scoring in the other league, translate that to the equivalent NHL role, and then apply the necessary league adjustments. Until then, the best approach is to continue to use the existing translation factors for average players, and try to find comparative examples for the more talented.”

    So, for now, we use the standard equivalency, but I think it’s worth keeping those other things in mind as we try to make sense of them and project these players into the NHL.

  82. RexLibris says:

    I think we may need to stop with the Oilers/hamsters thing.

    It is an injustice to hamsters.

    ———-

    Pouzar:
    We are going to suck again next year aren’t we. I mean…Jultz over Petry? WTF.

    Also, I fear Hall is gone this offseason. Just a hunch.

    I was thinking this as I was reading the Petry article.

    Petry being let go and replaced by…*crickets*…means that next year this ragtag group of (formerly) lovable losers will be stuck in the NHL basement again.

    Either Hall demands a trade, or he kicks back and relaxes and the fans lose it on him and start clamouring for a trade.

    Now, I’m not saying that I truly believe this will happen, just that you can see something like this having the potential to occur from where we stand today.

    Maybe they turn this whole thing around next season.

    Or, to quote the inimitable Bruce Campbell, maybe I’m a Chinese jet pilot.

    This article has really got under my skin. It is the kind of gross incompetence that flies in the face of so many promises made, outside appearances from personnel moves, and the lessons that ought to have been learned from past mistakes.

    MacTavish in an interview with Terry Jones June 15th, 2014: “We need help on defence. We’re looking for a puck-moving defenceman, a guy who can carry the puck north and continue into open ice.” http://www.edmontonsun.com/2014/06/16/edmonton-oilers-offseason-begins-for-gm-craig-mactavish

    MacTavish talking about signing Belov in a TJ article May 30th, 2013: It’s a move to trying to build more mobility into our back end. He moves the puck well. He makes quick decisions with the puck. He has a high skill level and competes hard. http://www.edmontonsun.com/2013/05/30/edmonton-oilers-gm-craid-mactavish-signs-russian-national-team-and-khl-defenceman-anton-belov

    A 27 year old, 6’3″, 200+lbs RD who can skate, move the puck and join the rush with solid underlying numbers to suggest he is a #3 or #4 defenseman on a good team is a universally valuable commodity in the NHL.

    The Oilers have one and have told him that he isn’t good enough for their 30th place team.

    I hope they trade Petry to Detroit, he signs a long term deal and then hoists the Cup and wins widespread praise for his play. I’d like to see this group justify that to an inquiring media.

    ——–

    At this point hamsters would disavow any involvement in the Edmonton Oilers.

  83. rich says:

    Very disappointing to read that the Oilers have made no effort at re-signing Petry.

    Even more so that they view Schultz as more valuable and have seem to already have made this decision.

    This is just one more sign that the current management really is clueless as to how to build this team, yet it just doesn’t seem to matter to the guys who ultimately are writing cheques and making decisions.

    Mr. Katz, I truly hope you are very satisfied that you have gotten what you paid for. Your idols have run a once proud team, a team once known for having a very tight room into the ground. We are a joke and it’s on your hands for allowing Lowe, MacT and Howson to run it into the ground.

    May you enjoy the fruits of your labor for allowing someone who is valuable and actually had interest in staying to go.

    As more continues to come out about how poorly managed this team is, I am reminded each day that current Oilers management is in the same class with that “genius” Mike Milbury.

    Until there is real change, there is no hope here.

  84. RexLibris says:

    Romulus Apotheosis and Cameron,

    Scared? Nervous?

    Nah. They are *this* close to undermining my last few remaining pillars of fan support. What is there left to be scared of? That they’ll trade Hall and pull the old “Gretzky asked for a trade” trick out of the bag to simonize their own dysfunction by blaming the outgoing player?

    That we’ll see Nugent-Hopkins spend the next six years of a understated talent on a basement-dwelling team only to have him walk at the end and listen to the franchise tell us that he never did deliver as promised?

    I’ve seen this before during the breakup of the dynasty team and in so many moves since.

    This team can’t break me.

    When Iginla was a year or two out from leaving the Flames there were rumblings amongst some of the fans that he had been elevated to a level higher than the team, that Iginla mattered more than the welfare of the organization. Eventually this was compounded by his alleged involvement in the failed Boston trade offer. His reputation, and the organization, has suffered for it.

    The Oilers have this same problem, but I’m of the opinion that it applies to management in that there are members there who feel they are the keepers of some sacred institution and any who fall short of their misguided definition of deserving is to be pilloried and exiled. How many players have been moved from this team for the crime of lese majeste, the stock-in-trade of narcissistic, insecure tyrannies?

    The NHL has already reorganized it’s entire draft process to try and prevent the Edmonton Oilers from being rewarded for their behaviour, and other teams from mimicking it.

    Flames fans don’t even bother to make jokes about the Oilers anymore. There is no hatred, no pity, not even righteous indignation at the prospect of the team drafting Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel because they feel relatively secure in the belief that it won’t make a bit of difference. If they feel at all sorry it is for the prospects and players who are drafted/signed by the team, or become frustrated that so much talent that could go to better use around the league is being wasted.

    Maybe I’m getting too upset over one article, but at some point the evidence reaches a tipping point and not offering Jeff Petry a contract is about as damning as we have seen thus far.

  85. cadooo says:

    Leon with 2 assists and about 76.5% Corsi in all situations tonight.

    Should have been 3 but Baillie missed an open net on a beauty pass in the first.

  86. Lowetide says:

    Just no. Apologies to those who posts were deleted as shrapnel.

  87. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Just no. Apologies to those who posts were deleted as shrapnel.

    Okay, I feel better now.

    I guess I just needed a hug. http://www.cuddlery.ca/

  88. Lowetide says:

    Cameron: If I were an Oiler fan, I’d be more than a little nervous about what that forensic audit is going to uncover. If we assume (as I do) that it will mean Kevin Lowe, MacT, and the scouting staff are gassed, that core players are shopped in trades, and that Nicholson wants to bring in all new guys to start things over, you’ll BE STARTING OVER.

    It means you live in Cambodia, and it is ‘Year Zero’.

    Again.

    The forensic audit is going to be Oilers scouts bad, Bob’s friends good. I don’t know if that’s a bad thing but do know a closed hiring environment isn’t a healthy one.

  89. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: The forensic audit is going to be Oilers scouts bad, Bob’s friends good. I don’t know if that’s a bad thing but do know a closed hiring environment isn’t a healthy one.

    “I know I’m new here, but your rosy culture of hiring old buddies doesn’t seem to be working. Try mine. Love, Bob.”

  90. AZOIL says:

    Well this Petry stuff is starting to make me re think why I’m a fan! I am the glass is half full kind of guy too so it’s tough to even admit this. I live in AZ and thought I could jump on the coyotes bandwagon but now they are tanking too and its just tough to get excited about another team!

    The only way we can do this, is if we all do it together! If we simply pick a good team or a team on the rise that we all like we are good to go! We can piss and moan about a trade here and there or a bad call by the ref still but we will be in the playoffs every year! We will have a competent GM and goalie! We will have an owner that holds people accountable and hires people that are smart! It really could work and as long as we all do it together it will be as if we are still oilers fans but enjoying a real hockey team together!

    The key is we all have to agree on a team and it has to be unanimous, and we speak no more of the oilers. Who’s in? I’m not joking either!

    My top three teams would be NYI, Blackhawks, TBL.

    Everyone name your top three and we will settle on one!

  91. Kmart99 says:

    RexLibris:
    Romulus Apotheosis and Cameron,

    Scared? Nervous?

    Nah. They are *this* close to undermining my last few remaining pillars of fan support. What is there left to be scared of? That they’ll trade Hall and pull the old “Gretzky asked for a trade” trick out of the bag to simonize their own dysfunction by blaming the outgoing player?

    That we’ll see Nugent-Hopkins spend the next six years of a understated talent on a basement-dwelling team only to have him walk at the end and listen to the franchise tell us that he never did deliver as promised?

    I’ve seen this before during the breakup of the dynasty team and in so many moves since.

    This team can’t break me.

    When Iginla was a year or two out from leaving the Flames there were rumblings amongst some of the fans that he had been elevated to a level higher than the team, that Iginla mattered more than the welfare of the organization. Eventually this was compounded by his alleged involvement in the failed Boston trade offer. His reputation, and the organization, has suffered for it.

    The Oilers have this same problem, but I’m of the opinion that it applies to management in that there are members there who feel they are the keepers of some sacred institution and any who fall short of their misguided definition of deserving is to be pilloried and exiled. How many players have been moved from this team for the crime of lese majeste, the stock-in-trade of narcissistic, insecure tyrannies?

    The NHL has already reorganized it’s entire draft process to try and prevent the Edmonton Oilers from being rewarded for their behaviour, and other teams from mimicking it.

    Flames fans don’t even bother to make jokes about the Oilers anymore. There is no hatred, no pity, not even righteous indignation at the prospect of the team drafting Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel because they feel relatively secure in the belief that it won’t make a bit of difference. If they feel at all sorry it is for the prospects and players who are drafted/signed by the team, or become frustrated that so much talent that could go to better use around the league is being wasted.

    Maybe I’m getting too upset over one article, but at some point the evidence reaches a tipping point and not offering Jeff Petry a contract is about as damning as we have seen thus far.

    Yes. Although I have trouble believing McDavid wouldnt make a difference if he somehow ended up in Oilers rags. He’s just too good. If we are lucky, he will come with a complete overhaul of the offices as well.

  92. book¡je says:

    Lowetide: The forensic audit is going to be Oilers scouts bad, Bob’s friends good. I don’t know if that’s a bad thing but do know a closed hiring environment isn’t a healthy one.

    This is my biggest concern. The Oilers are at risk of moving from one inept ‘old boy’ club to another.

  93. GCW_69 says:

    book¡je: The Oilers will be moving from one inept ‘old boy’ club to another.

    Fixed that for you.

  94. MenovOil says:

    By moving Dubnyk, the Yote’s have thrown their tanking gauntlet. How long before we respond with the Petry and Gordon trades?

  95. Gret99zky says:

    There is no way Bettman allows Edmonton McDavid.

    The league changed the rules precisely because of the Oilers and their inept management team.

  96. wheatnoil says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: http://thats-offside.blogspot.ca/2014/06/adjusted-draft-year-scoring-for-chl.html

    I was referring to the AHL equivalences adjusted for age, but this is also really interesting. Thanks!

  97. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    AZOIL,

    Morning, AZOIL! Still waiting for you to say sorry for piling on me about the Petry thing! 😉 I kid, I kid. Good luck cheering for your new team. You’ll suffer far less grief watching them, I’m sure.

    You’re going to be perceived as a band wagon guy anyway, I’d probably 1) stick with Arizona in the hopes that McDavid lands there and saves the franchise (The Bettman Crosby plan). 2) At least choose Tampa rather than Chicago (Chicago has already won)–Tampa is going to soon and has Stevie Y, a good man and a class act.

  98. Ca$h-Money! says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Islanders are the natural fallback. Same colours, young exiting team that is actually moving forward after an extended wander in the desert, same fondness for all things 1980s.

  99. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    Islanders are my backup team! The only numbered jersey I own is the nifty Tavares Captain away kit. I own three OIlers jerseys but none of them has a number/name on it.

    Lots of room available on that bandwagon! Until they move to Brooklyn, and then it will be pretty full.

  100. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Morning LT and LT gang,

    Speaking of Islanders and UFA-to-be defensemen, Arthur Staple says the Islanders are working on a 6-year contract extenstion with Johnny Boychuk.

    So Boychuk will not be available to fill Petry’s shoes if this is true.

    Staple says this contract’s AAV could be in the $6m+ range.

    This will make Petry that much mroe expensive/hard to sign. And if the plan was to let him go and sign Boychuk instead, well, fail on that one.

  101. rickithebear says:

    Lowetide:
    Just no. Apologies to those who posts were deleted as shrapnel.

    LT:
    Anyone showing Campbell and Ferraro respect. Piss me off.
    Their personal agenda targeting Hall is of zero honest value.

    As for the Narative.
    I can state that Campbell put on a more drastic performance at a Fiona Smith party in 1999.
    A large lobster boil!
    In Milbourne Garden Apartments on 76th st NW.
    Just south of Colt Eng; Millgate Transit Cresent.

    Of coarse horny little sports girls do change!

  102. Oilanderp says:

    In 1990, the BCJHL was renamed to its current name, British Columbia Hockey League (BCHL).

    According to http://thehockeywriters.com/top-10-best-developmental-ice-hockey-leagues-north-america/ the BCHL is the 6th best development league in North America.

    The top 5 are AHL, ECHL, CHL, NCAA, USHL.

    Next year Liam Coughlin is headed to Vermont of the NCAA (source: http://www.bchl.ca/leagues/rosters_profile.cfm?clientID=1413&leagueID=2393&teamID=408653&playerID=1070092).

    Right now he leads his team in scoring, 3 points better than little Liam Finley who is 3 years younger.

  103. russ99 says:

    rich
    They view Schultz as more valuable and have seem to already have made this decision.

    I tend to agree with that assessment, even if its a wildly unpopular one – given what their contract numbers are expected to be over the next 2-3 seasons (if MacT doesn’t cave again) and how Petry is pretty much at his highest level while Schultz has a ton of room to grow – and yes there are doubts he’ll get there but his offensive skills are way ahead of most players with 165 NHL games.

    But IMO, it’s not an either-or proposition, decisions on those players should be separate decisions.

    It’s a fact that Petry will command close to top dollar for the next 3-5 years either here or on the market. MacT tried the hometown discount approach this summer and failed miseraby. So only an overpay would keep him here, realistically.

    I’d prefer we take what we’ll not spend re-uping Petry who’s our best defenseman now, and had better not be our best defenseman in 3 years and use it (in part) to bring in a more complete defenseman, i.e. a true top-paring guy. BTW – Boychuk isn’t one of them, we should stop equating good defensemen from the Edmonton area as top-level defensemen.

    At what point does not re-signing Petry by weighing talent level vs. money spent to keep it become less managerial stupidity and more a shrewd move to maximize talent for dollars spent at the position?

    Granted, we’ll have to actually land the better player than Petry to make it all work…

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