CONSTANZE KAROLI AND EVELINE GRUNWALD

How much value would you put on a coach who finds a way to unlock the considerable gifts Nail Yakupov’s natural talents imply? Is that worth $10 million over the next decade? I don’t know the number but it must be enormous. Todd Nelson seems to be helping the young Russian along, Nail looks to be more involved. We saw Brian Campbell with Aaron Ekblad last night and it’s clear as day that the vet is helping the youngster. Roy’s role with Yakupov could be identical. These last games of the 2014-15 season could be massive for Edmonton in this one area.

That’s what my eyes tell me, that Derek Roy is a significant upgrade from Mark Arcobello as a Yak City center and that we’re starting to get somewhere. Is that true? Using Hockey Analysis and their WOWY page, we get an early comparable for Nail with different centers this season.

  • Yakupov with Mark Arcobello: 49.4% Corsi for 5×5; 2-3-5 in 193 5×5 minutes (1.55/60)
  • Yakupov with Derek Roy: 41.7% Corsi for 5×5; 1-1-2 in 87 5×5 minutes (1.38/60)

Early days and I’m not sure we’re going to get the same Corsi numbers from Nelson—he appears to be more ‘feel’ and less ‘math’—but the math suggests Arcobello was a better fit. Thoughts? Aside from it’s too early?

fasth capture

SLOW-PLAYING THE DEADLINE?

  • Bruce Garrioch: Teams that have spoken with Edmonton GM Craig MacTavish are being told he doesn’t want to do much. Source

That’s fine by me, I wish the club would sign Jeff Petry and roll down the highway pretty much as-is. Viktor Fasth has value for sure and maybe a team finds Teddy Purcell interesting (he’s playing well and in multiple roles) but I don’t think this is the time of year to blow anything up. Keep your powder dry, wait until summer and certainly wait to see where that first-round draft pick lands.

roberts

SOPHOMORE JINX

I’ve been racking my brain trying to describe the Edmonton Oilers and their difficult draft-to-development problems and have settled on the expansion San Diego Padres. The early years of the team were terrible and the draft work didn’t help at all. When that happens you can question the kids but it’s probably more the organization. Seriously. They don’t know how to develop so the kid is left to his own resources and usually fails in doing so. The interesting thing about the Padres? Their picks did have early success before fading. In 1972, the Padres picked No. 1 overall and used the selection on Dave Roberts of San Diego State University. They signed him, put him right into the big leagues and he flourished for the first year and a half. In 1974 his bat left him and he never did recover, playing a total of 10 seasons mostly as a journeyman.

Edmonton is doing the same things these days and it’s something losing teams do often. Martin Marincin looked like a capable young NHL defenseman just one year ago but a year later finds himself in the minors and there’s no certainty he’ll be recalled to the Oilers when Jeff Petry is dealt. We have a tendency to blame the prospects for these things but like the San Diego Padres of 1972 a lot of this (imo) has to do with the organization.

It dovetails into our Nail Yakupov conversation and we could include Anton Lander and any number of Barons in this conversation. Along with winning some hockey games, Todd Nelson could be a significant factor in getting some of these minor leaguers through the tough times and perhaps the Oilers will stop going all ‘Dave Roberts’ on their most precious draft selections.

The Darnell Nurse template is the one to follow. Craig MacTavish adhered to it in year one and did not (to his and Dallas Eakins’ peril) in year two. The smart man doesn’t get bitten by the same dog twice.

NELSON

Todd Nelson is 4-4-2 after 10 games and there are 36 games left in the season. If Nelson can run 4-4-2 over and over until the season ends he would end up at 14-14-8 (or thereabouts) and total 18-18-10 for his 46 games as coach (the club was 7-22-7 when MacT headed back upstairs). Is that enough to get him hired? If Nelson can find a way to turn Nail and Anton (and maybe even Martin) north while doing so, I don’t think the Oilers have a choice. They are still a bad team and their possession numbers don’t appear to be heading in a better direction (46.6% Corsi last 10, we’ll wait 20 Nelson games and then have a good, long look) but the Oilers have 10 points in their last 10 games and that my friends is where the rubber hits the road.

ADVERTISEMENTS

I received a complaint from a reader overnight and wanted to pass along a few points in regard to the google ads that run on this blog. Google provides me with ‘filters’ that allow me to exclude what I consider to be content that doesn’t fit and that is something I take seriously. The complaint was vague but it does appear that females are appearing on the blog in an inappropriate manner for some. I would encourage you to email me at jbabcook@shaw.ca with the specific name of the company and what they are promoting and I’ll change the ads that appear in this way.

One thing that I’ve learned about google is we’re all seeing different ads. If you’re a financial type you may see bank or investment ads based on your cookies; if you’re a handyman I bet hammers show up. So, and I want to be sensitive here because this is a male dominated site and I’ve no doubt you’re going to see females in the ads, if you frequent sites that are male oriented on the internet (and not even blue sites, I’m talking normal business here) chances are you’ll see the same ads at other hockey sites/google ads sites. I don’t pick the ads but will try to filter to your tastes. Thanks for your attention to this matter, and sincere apologies to anyone who has been offended by ads seen here.

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133 Responses to "CONSTANZE KAROLI AND EVELINE GRUNWALD"

  1. supernova says:

    I get lots of vitamin ads

    I was thinking dang LT is cashing in on that supplement market and is on the way to a Katz fortune and then he will own the team.

  2. supernova says:

    I am at the point I want them to give Fasth and Nikitin every opportunity to boost their values before deadline.
    Even if they have to retain salary on both just to get a decent set of picks.
    If you could get a top 90 pick from either or both it is a good deal.

    Sign Petry for 2 years and pay the man. Gives our kids like Klefbom and Nurse a half decent chance at developing properly.

    Trade for Adam Larsson already

    Inquire on Robin Lehner

    If Nelson can get Nail to 15 to 20 goals by the end of the season he has to be amongst the top 3 candidates for HC.

    I would be all In on Todd Mcllelan though if he is available

  3. Ben says:

    I get non-stop weight loss ads here which I find very offensive as I am just big-boned.

  4. smellyglove says:

    4 points and questions for both LT and the readership:

    1.) Is this blog souring on analytics?
    2.) I’d like to poll the readership: do we see both Nurse and Draisitl in next year’s starting line up? If so, what shade of apocalypse is it?
    3.) LT–you mentioned that this used to be a pro-MactT blog, but isn’t anymore. Could you elaborate?
    4.) Ads. First up, I’m glad that you run ads. It means I get to see this blog. My sense is that there may be better ways to generate revenue to take care of your costs, LT. Have you considered the Amazon affiliate program (https://affiliate-program.amazon.com/)? You should be able to tell it to display hockey product only ads, which is right in your audience’s wheelhouse. That means more relevant ads, more conversions, and most importantly–a hell of a lot better commissions (up to 10% of anything purchased from Amazon in next 24 hours) than Adsense.

  5. Bar_Qu says:

    I’m surprised we don’t all see lots of anti-depressants being advertised here – if we read about the Oilers enough, shouldn’t Google be making that connection?

    I am currently getting all my Oilers updates via my 8 yr old who has not soured on hockey like I have. It was a real pleasure to hear Yak got a shoot-out opportunity and no surprise at all to hear he scored. If Nelson keeps helping the kids progress, gets a few wins, then the Corsi battle is a secondary thing. I’m sure he’s smart enough to know that is a project for if/when he has this team from training camp on.

  6. Ben says:

    Bar_Qu:
    I’m surprised we don’t all see lots of anti-depressants being advertised here

    Also known as “The Rexall Long-Game”.

  7. smellyglove says:

    Ben: Also known as “The Rexall Long-Game”.

    Ben,

    Give this guy the prize. He just won.

  8. Lowetide says:

    smellyglove:
    4 points and questions for both LT and the readership:

    1.) Is this blog souring on analytics?
    2.) I’d like to poll the readership: do we see both Nurse and Draisitl in next year’s starting line up? If so, what shade of apocalypse is it?
    3.) LT–you mentioned that this used to be a pro-MactT blog, but isn’t anymore. Could you elaborate?
    4.) Ads. First up, I’m glad that you run ads. It means I get to see this blog. My sense is that there may be better ways to generate revenue to take care of your costs, LT.Have you considered the Amazon affiliate program (https://affiliate-program.amazon.com/)? You should be able to tell it to display hockey product only ads, which is right in your audience’s wheelhouse. That means more relevant ads, more conversions, and most importantly–a hell of a lot better commissions (up to 10% of anything purchased from Amazon in next 24 hours) than Adsense.

    1. No. Analytics are as they’ve always been, an extremely useful tool for ciphering what’s happening good and bad. I love analytics and wish I understood them better.
    2. Yes. I see Nurse, Draisaitl and the first-round pick on the 2015-16 team.
    3. I have a tremendous amount of respect for Craig MacTavish as a hockey man. He taught me a lot about the game of hockey just by being so articulate as Oilers coach. I felt a smart guy like MacT would be a strong GM candidate and he has in fact done some good things. However, there’s a growing list of things (inability to bring in a 2C, slow to react, indifference to a balanced roster, burying Marincin because conditioning THEY ASKED HIM TO DO, Nikitin, etc) that have me concerned. I’m fully prepared to defend MacT’s continuing as GM but am not quite convinced he’s earned the right. We’ll see how the deadline goes.
    4. I didn’t know that, will check it out.

  9. Halfwise says:

    I am concerned that the ads I see reveal just how depraved I am. Please do something about this…

  10. Doomoil says:

    Google ads are determined by the users browsing history. If you use gmail you’ probably get the same ads here as you do at gmail. They are not random.

    I do second the Amazon affiliate suggestion though.

  11. stephen sheps says:

    Perron interview up at Puck Daddy. Choice Quote:
    You mentioned when you first arrived in Pittsburgh you were ready to start winning. That year and a half in Edmonton, the lack of success, did that a toll on you personally?

    “It was really hard, for sure, mentally. It’s hard on the guys that are there right now. They’re doing everything they can to get out of it. You’re just so emotionally and physically involved that even though I was extremely excited to join [Pittsburgh], it’s not like you gave up on the other one when you were there. I still was giving 100-percent every single night, every single day trying to get the team out of it. It certainly was draining. At times I felt like I think I could have maybe more of a role somewhere else and that’s what I got so far here and hopefully I take advantage of it.”

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/puck-daddy-chats-with-david-perron-about-trade-to-penguins–losing-in-edmonton-142014039.html

    Thought people might find that interesting…

  12. oliveoilers says:

    So, things are already a little heated from the previous thread, so I won’t mention any of that!

    LT is right on the ad algorithms. They can glean anything from anything. I for instance, buy a lot of tools on line from reputable firms that I have googled. I also check sports scores a lot. I also buy men’s clothes. They already know my age, where I live and my habits. We won’t be needing Sherlock for this. The banners I get a lot on here are for dating sites with hot single females or looking for an affair in Dixonville, near where I live. Dixonville has about 100 people in it, with probably 1000 on farms in the area. Everybody knows everybody, and I tell you, I don’t know the girls shown in the ad.

    I Think I know the ad in question, but to be honest, I just ignore it. But a filter would be great! Also, my wife would like you to filter a certain tool vendor with the words Lea and Valley in it’s name, for financial reasons!

  13. sliderule says:

    I have to think that some of the backsliding of younger players and especially Yakupov came from Eakins .

    Eakins had a tough love relationship with Yakupov similar to the one he had with Kadri.

    The emphasis was on mistakes and calling out players and to my view only younger players.

    The negative was emphasized even saying that oilers were not an offensive team..Over his tenure his assessment of their offence became true.

    Every player responds differently and Yak has been affected the most even apologizing for defensive mistakes after his best game of season..

    Whatever other faults Eakins had as a coach his not realizing that like a good schoolteacher you have to treat young people with understanding of background and personality was his worst fault.

  14. HiddenDarts says:

    Internet Marketing is what I do for a living, so I can agree with the posters above: if you’re seeing X-rated or dubious ads, it’s because you (or your computer) has been in some X-rated or dubious places. This site, which is far from dubious, isn’t just throwing ads at you… they’re based on your browsing history.

    I’m going to third the Amazon idea. Not only do you get commissions (which is usually in the 6-8% range) on stuff in the ads, but also on EVERYTHING THE PERSON BUYS within 24 hours after clicking through via the ad on your site.

    I shop at Amazon.com all the time. Maybe it’s just me, but if I needed something, I’d be more than happy to stop here first to read the comments before an Amazon ad jets me over to their site.

  15. jake70 says:

    Bar_Qu:
    I’m surprised we don’t all see lots of anti-depressants being advertised here – if we read about the Oilers enough, shouldn’t Google be making that connection?

    This site has been the anti-depressant. 🙂

  16. smellyglove says:

    HiddenDarts,

    Yes. In addition to a higher cut of products more likely to be bought (Nikitin bobbleheads-ha!), the LT community could do all of its Amazon shopping in parallel with reading this site. Several hundred committed readers doing their birthday and Christmas buying at Amazon would help out LT aplenty.

  17. oliveoilers says:

    HiddenDarts:
    Internet Marketing is what I do for a living, so I can agree with the posters above: if you’re seeing X-rated or dubious ads, it’s because you (or your computer) has been in some X-rated or dubious places. This site, which is far from dubious, isn’t just throwing ads at you… they’re based on your browsing history.

    I’m going to third the Amazon idea. Not only do you get commissions (which is usually in the 6-8% range) on stuff in the ads, but also on EVERYTHING THE PERSON BUYS within 24 hours after clicking through via the ad on your site.

    I shop at Amazon.com all the time. Maybe it’s just me, but if I needed something, I’d be more than happy to stop here first to read the comments before an Amazon ad jets me over to their site.

    I brought some LED light bars direct from china through their website that has dubious ads on it. Is this enough to trigger the algorithms? Or is it the chive, lol!

  18. oliveoilers says:

    Bohologo,

    LT, why do you hate ________(your player/pinup/musical artist of note)?

  19. Zangetsu says:

    This site usually gives me different ads than i normally see. I don’t really pay attention to them, but sometimes they are funny. Right now i have “shocking french video,” watch if you don’t know french. Then i also have “are you a single muslim?” I can’t imagine what would have given me those. Usually I get those fake fitness ads or sporty stuff.

  20. jfry says:

    Lt, I mentioned the amazon option a couple of years ago. Basically, you want to encourage all of your readers to start their amazon purchases through your website and then you can cash in, in a rather significant way. An example!old where it is being used well is over at http://www.cryptogon.com

    He often posts how much he’s making monthly from the program and its frequently in the 300to 600 range and I highly doubt he has your readership. Basic idea on his site is that you click on one of the book ads anytime you want to start a session at amazon and he makes a cut of all sales. Pretty great program and often fits naturally with many of the sites that decide to use it. Good luck

  21. Eastern Oil says:

    jake70: This site has been the anti-depressant.

    Hear! Hear! Well said sir.

    I always thought it would be funny if the ads would change with the mood of the current conversations in the blog. It would go from a Lagavulin scotch ad, to an advert on the Sloan Analytics Conference. Then from the Edmonton Oilers “Oilers TV” page to Scarlett Johansson’s IMDB page.

    On second thought, it may never stray from that last page….

  22. Eastern Oil says:

    On another note, at what point do the Oilers start to audition some of their OKC Barons that are performing at a good level considering where this team is in the standings. Part of me would like to see guys like Curtis Hamilton and Iiro the Hero for 10+ games so we can make a decision on them.

    On the flip side, the Barons have something good going, maybe don’t mess with it?

  23. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Did the offending ad show a rather good example of cleavage? I don’t really pay attention to the ads on any site, but I did notice that particular shape on the side of this site yesterday.

  24. Hammers says:

    As for Yak , Lander and even Schultz who everyone seems to dislike if Nelson gets satisfactory results from those 3 and plays at 500 I’m happy in seeing him hired . What I see right now is a results team . A team of players being used the right way with closer to the ice time they deserve . As important as analytics are having a coach who can see and use his instincts is important . LT if you rate Nelson after 20 games I think points , player improvements even a Pouliot type is important .

  25. Lowetide says:

    In terms of callups, OKC men did well including Andrew Miller, Bogdan Yakimov and Iiro Pakarinen. And Sleppy rocked Russia this week

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/1/18/weekend-update-6d8d0da0-6d9f-43d5-8e80-622fa1fd93e7

  26. G Money says:

    Early days on Nelson, early days on Yak with Roy and under Nelson.

    By eye, things are looking up. The team starts games with more energy. They attack the net with more aggression.

    Yak is still up and down but seems to be bringing the heat (and getting the chances) with more regularity now. By eye, it looks like he’s playing less scared. Now he just needs to play with confidence. (Which requires getting some results, which requires getting some confidence. Chicken and egg!)

    Those all seem to be reflected in the results (more leads, more goals) but not in the stats.

    But the results AND the stats won’t truly reflect Nelson’s work until he’s had that 20ish games under his belt and has the team playing his way, so any difference we’re seeing now, real or illusory, is at least as attributable to roster upgrades and goaltending regression to the meat and coaching-change adrenaline as anything else.

  27. Ryan says:

    Doomoil:
    Google ads are determined by the users browsing history. If you use gmail you’ probably get the same ads here as you do at gmail. They are not random.

    I do second the Amazon affiliate suggestion though.

    In the past I had created a high traffic website that I ultimately sold on Flippa for just under $30k. I sold the site back in 2013, so some things have changed.

    I ran the site as a hobby for a few years prior to that. For much of the time, it had about 250,000 monthly page views. We’re not talking Naton Network here, but a reasonable amount of traffic.

    I keep forgetting to tell this to Alan, but one of the main tricks that I used to generate website traffic was that my site was a Google news source.

    You have to submit your site for inclusion and wait a few months or so to have it reviewed.

    https://support.google.com/news/publisher/answer/40787?hl=en

    The link to submit your site is at the bottom of the page I linked to.

    Yahoo had a similar process, but it took almost a year to get approved. I’m not sure if Yahoo still does this.

    Anyway, I had tried all forms of advertising…

    Initially, cpm ads ruled the day. The best network was Glam Media.,.. At one point in time, the had some really intrusive ads that would pay over $10 cpm per ad unit. The complication being these rates would only apply for US traffic and first page view for each user. As my second tier network, I used Burst media, then Adsense.

    Then there was the demise of the cpm ads and I largely just switched to Adsense. Once I reached this point, the fun was over since the site generated 1/3 of the previous revenue. Hence, I sold the website.

    There are other options for ads such as WordPress plugins like OIO publisher. Direct ad sales is the holy grail in terms of best monetizing a website, but more time consuming.

    As far as affiliate programs, I had tried Commission Junction, share-a-sale, Amazon, and the Google affiliate program. For me, affiliate sales were a complete bust.

    I have a few friends who had some success with affiliate sales and they all had one thing in common, they wrote long salesy product review type posts.

    Long story short, you could try rotating in your bottom right ad unit for an affiliate program, but I wouldn’t recommend switching everything over at once.:)

  28. Lowetide says:

    Auston Matthews ’16:
    Did the offending ad show a rather good example of cleavage? I don’t really pay attention to the ads on any site, but I did notice that particular shape on the side of this site yesterday.

    I don’t know, didn’t notice. Either I didn’t get it on my ads or I’m REALLY old!

  29. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Most common ads I see are Fantasy Football, some clothes from some place called Frank & Oak, which is odd because I never shop for clothes online, and women’s boots from Zulilly, which is odd because I never shop for women’s boots online. Or, in person, for that matter. Ha ha

  30. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Most common ads I see are Fantasy Football, some clothes from some place called Frank & Oak, which is odd because I never shop for clothes online, and women’s boots from Zulilly, which is odd because I never shop for women’s boots online. Or, in person, for that matter. Ha ha

    Upon closer inspection, those appear to be MEN’s boots. Is that what men wear for shoes these days? Whatever happened to plain old black or scuffed up brown?

  31. godot10 says:

    The “ads” that one sees are one’s own damn fault and not the fault of the website. Don’t people understand this?

    If one doesn’t like the ads one is being served, you have to clean up your own web behavior. You determine what ads you see, not the website.

  32. RexLibris says:

    Buffalo plays Detroit tonight (loss for the Sabres).

    Arizona plays Winnipeg (probably a loss for the Coyotes).

    Carolina plays Toronto tomorrow (guessing Carolina can pull out a win there).

    Columbus and Minnesota tomorrow (could go either way).

    New Jersey vs the Sharks tomorrow (Sharks should win this one, but we’ll see).

    Oilers find themselves in quite the tank battle here.

    Let’s assume the standings finish so that draft order is

    Buffalo
    Arizona
    Columbus
    Edmonton
    New Jersey

    Then we assume that McDavid goes 1st, Eichel 2nd, Marner 3rd.

    The Oilers could be looking at either Hanifin or Strome at 4th overall. That is a very dangerous place to draft. It requires a team to re-assess the talent and their current position because in all likelihood you’ll be picking from a large pool of very good players with whom you will have to be patient (Pietrangelo, G. Reinhart, E. Kane as examples).

    The Oilers aren’t patient, but there are talents there that they’ve coveted for quite some time in big centers like Strome or a high-end defenseman like Hanifin.

    Then again Nugent-Hopkins could be injured at the All-Star game and we could tailspin into the offseason in ye olde Oiler fashion of yore.

  33. G Money says:

    On the Nelson “wait and see” thing, I’ve been the one most stridently putting forward the 20 games thing.

    It stems from a look I did at Corsi trends after coaching changes a year or two ago. I looked at a handful of teams/coaches, and there seemed to be a consistent theme that you could see the distinct change in the “shape” of the team’s Corsi between 15 and 25 games.

    So since then my guideline is “20 games”. But it should also be understood that this isn’t a science thing, it’s a “G Money Eyeball Thing”, FWIW.

    That said, I figured I might as well repeat that process for the Oilers this year, pre and post Nelson, and as early as it is, see if we can eyeball anything interesting at this time.

    The following chart shows the teams 5×5 CF% and All Situations sv% and sh% this year, with a vertical line showing the handoff to Nelson (I didn’t bother to parse out MacT; the dataset, which is already minimal, would shrink too much).

    That said, small sample size warnings notwithstanding, I do see some interesting things on this chart. There’s even a possibility that we’ve already seen the Nelson “inflection point”. I have annotated the chart with my observations.

    http://i.imgur.com/k61ZQKV.png

    Thoughts?

  34. Woogie63 says:

    Padres v. Oilers similarities

    Both teams have not respected the process to develop multi dimensional atheltes. It takes years of practice to be better than a “one trick pony”, this practice and develop is best done in development leagues. Development leagues spend more time coaching, and play against less quality players that turn over more than the top professional leagues.

    The second time a Shae Weber, or Bobby Lou sees “your move” they shut that sh… down. Time in development league widen your skill base.

    Winning teams talk about the process….

    Imo the process they are talking about is the respect for the role of development (leagues) plays in building champions.

  35. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    In terms of callups, OKC men did well including Andrew Miller, Bogdan Yakimov and Iiro Pakarinen. And Sleppy rocked Russia this week

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/1/18/weekend-update-6d8d0da0-6d9f-43d5-8e80-622fa1fd93e7

    I’d recall Pakarinen.

    Yakimov needs more time and I’m not sold on Miller mainly because this team needs veteran Cs because of all the developing wingers. Pakarinen could play alongside Roy or Gordon and have some support. Heck, he could probably play alongside Lander at this point and the Old Soul would give him a hand.

    Yakimov’s offense needs to develop. If the Oilers put too much pressure on him now I fear we’ll be looking at our next Vande Velde. I have some high hopes for him eventually becoming a solid 3rd line C, but he’s a ways off yet and probably requires another 100 AHL games to establish.

  36. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    godot10,

    Yes, that was the point of LT’s post.

  37. G Money says:

    RexLibris: Then again Nugent-Hopkins could be injured at the All-Star game and we could tailspin into the offseason in ye olde Oiler fashion of yore.

    Someone call Tonya Harding!

  38. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    G Money,

    Nice charts. Too early to call an inflection point. Was that the St Louis game? The quality of opponents is going to affect that. Like your 20 game sample size, but I’d say it probably could even be bigger. I think you make the call on Nelson based on the full 40 game body of work at the end of the year (probably stating the obvious).

  39. Woodguy says:

    Jones with an “exclusive” on Bob Green’s new role.

    Above Morey and Stu, nothing to do with development.

    http://m.edmontonsun.com/2015/01/17/former-oil-king-gm-bob-green-to-be-edmonton-oilers-new-scouting-boss

  40. Bar_Qu says:

    jake70: This site has been the anti-depressant.

    Amen.

    Its the only reason I pay attention to anything hockey anymore.

  41. oliveoilers says:

    godot10:
    The “ads” that one sees are one’s own damn fault and not the fault of the website.Don’t people understand this?

    If one doesn’t like the ads one is being served, you have to clean up your own web behavior.You determine what ads you see, not the website.

    Are you saying it ISN’T Eakins’ fault?

  42. G Money says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    I’m usually first in line to yell “small sample size!”, so although the chart looks like it *might* have hit an inflection, the reality is that it could just as easily be wishful thinking as a real trend change, so I tried to put in as many weasel words (“may”, “possibility”, “it’s early”, etc) as I could!

    The only thing working in favour of it possibly being an actual thing is the timing – after 10 games, and for a coach already familiar with a number of key players, it wouldn’t be surprising to see an effect kick in at that point. So I figured it merited a mention.

    But the 20 games minimum remains in effect.

    If the improvement in results continues to trend up to that 20ish game point, and then has some consistency thereafter, I’ll be OK with declaring it to be a real thing … but until then, we assume the Corsi Bear Market continues!

  43. G Money says:

    oliveoilers: Are you saying it ISN’T Eakins’ fault?

    I think maybe Eakins, that psychotic bastard, has been sneaking into Godot’s house every night and typing “Russian Badonkadonks” into Google search for the last year.

    Would explain a lot.

  44. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Since Phaneuf is going to end up in Edmonton.
    How bout MacT trade Norris for Phaneuf with Toronto eating 2 million in Salary.
    Then give Dion the Yandle treatment.
    Cups to follow.

  45. Unicorns says:

    Maybe Google’s algorithm needs some fine tuning. I have a seniors dating site up. I got the T Shirt ad featuring cleavage too.

    I’m not too sensitive, but ads on many sports related sites do get iffy, are awkward when my young kids come to see the hockey pics and highlights I check.

  46. Ben says:

    From that Jones piece:

    “I hesitate to even say too much about that. We haven’t even announced it to anybody involved what he’s doing.” – MacT

    This organization has such deep and abiding communications problems – both internally and externally.

    Dear anyone from the Oilers organization: I have excellent experience in this area. Please contact me should you wish to improve organizational messaging on all levels. References available.

  47. oliveoilers says:

    Unicorns:
    Maybe Google’s algorithm needs some fine tuning. I have a seniors dating site up. I got the T Shirt ad featuring cleavage too.

    I’m not too sensitive, but ads on many sports related sites do get iffy, are awkward when my young kids come to see the hockey pics and highlights I check.

    I was getting the t-shirt one, but I thought it was because my wife brought me a year’s t-shirt subscription. Cleavage is one thing. Hardcore smut quite another.

  48. oliveoilers says:

    G Money: I think maybe Eakins, that psychotic bastard, has been sneaking into Godot’s house every night and typing “Russian Badonkadonks” into Google search for the last year.

    Would explain a lot.

    The cad!

  49. PeOiler says:

    Any ideas about what will happen to the players on Condors contracts next year? Are they technically Oilers property and would they slide down to the new ECHL franchise?

  50. admiralmark says:

    godot10:
    The “ads” that one sees are one’s own damn fault and not the fault of the website.Don’t people understand this?

    If one doesn’t like the ads one is being served, you have to clean up your own web behavior.You determine what ads you see, not the website.

    Funny i’m not seeing any porn in my ads?! Too bad I was hoping to kill 2 birds with 1 stone.

  51. oliveoilers says:

    Ben:
    From that Jones piece:

    “I hesitate to even say too much about that. We haven’t even announced it to anybody involved what he’s doing.” – MacT

    This organization has such deep and abiding communications problems – both internally and externally.

    Dear anyone from the Oilers organization: I have excellent experience in this area.Please contact me should you wish to improve organizational messaging on all levels.References available.

    Is Bob secret agent NN’s handler?

    I have mentioned before that the Oilers seem to give little regard to the perception of their moves, even if they are borne of the best intentions. I’ve taken wage decreases to work in places that have had better reputations than others. Do UFAs do the same, or is it just dollar signs spinning in their eyeballs?

  52. oliveoilers says:

    admiralmark: Funny i’m not seeing any porn in my ads?! Too bad I was hoping to kill 2 birds with 1 stone.

    LOL.

  53. Bank Shot says:

    I use adblock and don’t see any ads on the internet at all!

  54. Woodguy says:

    oliveoilers: Are you saying it ISN’T Eakins’ fault?

    Awesome.

  55. Lowetide says:

    oliveoilers: Is Bob secret agent NN’s handler?

    I have mentioned before that the Oilers seem to give little regard to the perception of their moves, even if they are borne of the best intentions.I’ve taken wage decreases to work in places that have had better reputations than others.Do UFAs do the same, or is it just dollar signs spinning in their eyeballs?

    I think it shows the gap between accepted modern business practices and hockey men sliding into modern business in positions of authority. Beginning with the DD comment MacT has been loose cannoning his way all over the poop deck.

  56. Woodguy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Since Phaneuf is going to end up in Edmonton.
    How bout MacT trade Norris for Phaneuf with Toronto eating 2 million in Salary.
    Then give Dion the Yandle treatment.
    Cups to follow.

    Agree with The Yandle Treatment for Phaneuf.

    Dellow had showed that Phaneuf was elite at producing points in a 2nd pairing ozone starts role.

    He has failed miserably at the tough minute D role, it’s just not his game.

    Therefore, when MacT trades for Phaneuf he’ll get the tough minute role and leave Dellow’s emails unopened Because Oilers.

  57. Ben says:

    I want Perron and Arco to do well, but I want the Pens to finish as low as possible in the standings.

    Even cheering for a 2nd team is conflicted for an Oilers fan.

  58. Eastern Oil says:

    Lowetide: I think it shows the gap between accepted modern business practices and hockey men sliding into modern business in positions of authority. Beginning with the DD comment MacT has been loose cannoning his way all over the poop deck.

    Is a poop deck really what I think it is?

  59. Lowetide says:

    Eastern Oil: Is a poop deck really what I think it is?

    I think it’s the top deck, the highest one.

  60. oliveoilers says:

    Lowetide: I think it’s the top deck, the highest one.

    The poop deck is like a mezzanine on the top deck at the rear of the ship (aft) with the forecastle, or fo’c’sle at the bow. The ship’s officer’s were usually to be found here.

    The joys of growing up next to the Dockyards and taking every school trip to either HMS Warrior, HMS Victory or the Mary Rose.

    EDIT: My claim to fame is that I tripped over the plaque saying “Here Nelson Fell.”

  61. striker says:

    Eastern Oil: Is a poop deck really what I think it is?

    I like the cut of your jib.

  62. leadfarmer says:

    Ben,

    Never underestimate the ability of Fleury to poopdeck in the playoffs.

  63. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    On the Nelson “wait and see” thing, I’ve been the one most stridently putting forward the 20 games thing.

    It stems from a look I did at Corsi trends after coaching changes a year or two ago.I looked at a handful of teams/coaches, and there seemed to be a consistent theme that you could see the distinct change in the “shape” of the team’s Corsi between 15 and 25 games.

    So since then my guideline is “20 games”.But it should also be understood that this isn’t a science thing, it’s a “G Money Eyeball Thing”, FWIW.

    That said, I figured I might as well repeat that process for the Oilers this year, pre and post Nelson, and as early as it is, see if we can eyeball anything interesting at this time.

    The following chart shows the teams 5×5 CF% and All Situations sv% and sh% this year, with a vertical line showing the handoff to Nelson (I didn’t bother to parse out MacT; the dataset, which is already minimal, would shrink too much).

    That said, small sample size warnings notwithstanding, I do see some interesting things on this chart.There’s even a possibility that we’ve already seen the Nelson “inflection point”.I have annotated the chart with my observations.

    http://i.imgur.com/k61ZQKV.png

    Thoughts?

    shots for ( all situations)
    With Eakins 28.3 SF/60
    With Nelson 24.3 SF/60

    Shots from the box ( first 20 games with Eakins)
    Eakins 14.45 shots per game from the “box”
    Nelson 10.7

    Averaged just over 1 tip in / deflection per game with Eakins. Pretty much same with Nelson

    Score adjusted shots for 60 ( all situations)
    Eakins 27.8
    Nelson 24.0

    Eakins had 6 games where save % was less than 80% and 4 games where the forwards shot 0%.
    Nelson has had 1 game of save % dip under 80% and has scored in every game.

    Eakins had 9 games where PDO was over 100
    Nelson has had 6 games where PDO was over 100. other games were 99.5, 98.9,91.2, 90.5

    Still too early .

  64. RexLibris says:

    Wait, why do I keep seeing ads for Flames’ gea-OH CRAP!

  65. VanOil says:

    I would love the Oilers/MacT to go Opposite George on there modus operandi. Change at the top is probably too much to hope for, therefor so is the change in the way the Poop Deck is run.

    But imagine a reversal on how the Oilers view centers, rookies, and competition for roster spots.

    Trading Jultz + for Thornton plus signing Roy would allow for an all veteran Center line up of;

    Nuge, Thornton, Roy, Gordon.

    Draisaitl, Lander, Yakimov, Next Magic Bean can earn there way onto the roster as wingers or by being consistently better than the 4 men above.

  66. VanOil says:

    G Money: Thoughts?

    No thoughts on the content but love the layout of the information.

  67. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Lowetide: or I’m REALLY old!

    You’re only old if you know this song: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kb8_Ybbrn5A

  68. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    RexLibris:
    Wait, why do I keep seeing ads for Flames’ gea-OH CRAP!

    Not that there’s anything wrong with that…

  69. oliveoilers says:

    RexLibris:
    Wait, why do I keep seeing ads for Flames’ gea-OH CRAP!

    I get ads for pitchforks and burning torches.

  70. oliveoilers says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: Not that there’s anything wrong with that…

    I don’t know, we had somebody admitting to watching porn before we had someone admitting to downloading flames content. Speaks volumes 😉

  71. Eastern Oil says:

    Lowetide: I think it’s the top deck, the highest one.

    My dad always told me it ran downhill so that makes sense.

  72. Pouzar says:

    RexLibris: I’d recall Pakarinen.

    Yakimov needs more time and I’m not sold on Miller mainly because this team needs veteran Cs because of all the developing wingers. Pakarinen could play alongside Roy or Gordon and have some support. Heck, he could probably play alongside Lander at this point and the Old Soul would give him a hand.

    Yakimov’s offense needs to develop. If the Oilers put too much pressure on him now I fear we’ll be looking at our next Vande Velde. I have some high hopes for him eventually becoming a solid 3rd line C, but he’s a ways off yet and probably requires another 100 AHL games to establish.

    Couldn’t agree more with all of that.

    Pak would be a nice fit on line 3 as a cheaper replacement for Purcell.

    Yak2 has an NHL ready defensive game but the offense needs some time. He is getting the push now and showing some signs. Would like to see him use that big body a little more in the Ozone but overall I am very bullish on his development to this point. No rush here. #development

  73. book¡je says:

    Oilers management is crazy, first we see a firing by Skype that was totally unexpected, now we see the slowest firing in history of Stu McGreggor. Essentially announced publicly in Dec, but still not formally executed.

  74. Pouzar says:

    MacT needs to read Woodguys post on Phaneuf until he can recite it backwards in seven different languages.

  75. MightyOil1 says:

    Woodguy: Agree with The Yandle Treatment for Phaneuf.

    Dellow had showed that Phaneuf was elite at producing points in a 2nd pairing ozone starts role.

    He has failed miserably at the tough minute D role, it’s just not his game.

    Therefore, when MacT trades for Phaneuf he’ll get the tough minute role and leave Dellow’s emails unopened Because Oilers.

    “I think the analytics on players is very important, but I disagree with it on the way it assesses our group a lot of times. ” -MacT

    All you need to know right there…..”what do the numbers say?…..Bah! …that can’t be right!”

  76. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Lowetide: Beginning with the DD comment MacT has been loose cannoning his way all over the poop deck.

    Well unless someone on that deck gets their poop together, we can only keep looking forward to prospects like Jakob Chychrun., who scored a great goal for the Sting recently.

  77. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Ben: I want Perron and Arco to do well, but I want the Pens to finish as low as possible in the standings.

    Perron doesn’t seem to be cooperating.

    Edit: Dang, I originally saw that score as in favor of the Pens. Oh well, nice goal by Perron.

  78. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    The funny thing about the poop deck being the upper deck was that there used to be an old, and terrible house party prank called the “upper deck,” which was disgusting when the host would discover where the smell was coming from in his bathroom a few days later.

    Oh and speaking of “loose cannoning on the poop deck”

    http://giphy.com/gifs/monkey-gorilla-grenade-HZAzBllQJ2B1K

  79. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: house party prank called the “upper deck,”

    Another form of tanking!

  80. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Auston Matthews '16,

    Rick Nash is having one hell of a revival year. 28th of the season, one better than Taylor Hall’s career best season (in 75 games vs 42).

    Oops, I went there (runs and hides).

  81. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: Another form of tanking!

    Ha ha, yes! Well played.

  82. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Straw poll. How many of you cheering for Eskimos East today vs. the Seahawks?

  83. knighttown says:

    G Money:
    On the Nelson “wait and see” thing, I’ve been the one most stridently putting forward the 20 games thing.

    It stems from a look I did at Corsi trends after coaching changes a year or two ago.I looked at a handful of teams/coaches, and there seemed to be a consistent theme that you could see the distinct change in the “shape” of the team’s Corsi between 15 and 25 games.

    So since then my guideline is “20 games”.But it should also be understood that this isn’t a science thing, it’s a “G Money Eyeball Thing”, FWIW.

    That said, I figured I might as well repeat that process for the Oilers this year, pre and post Nelson, and as early as it is, see if we can eyeball anything interesting at this time.

    The following chart shows the teams 5×5 CF% and All Situations sv% and sh% this year, with a vertical line showing the handoff to Nelson (I didn’t bother to parse out MacT; the dataset, which is already minimal, would shrink too much).

    That said, small sample size warnings notwithstanding, I do see some interesting things on this chart.There’s even a possibility that we’ve already seen the Nelson “inflection point”.I have annotated the chart with my observations.

    http://i.imgur.com/k61ZQKV.png

    Thoughts?

    As a novice stats guy my eyes don’t smooth out those peaks and troughs like I imagine yours do. I wonder if you might redo with rolling 10 game stretches as I often see others do. I just see that inflection point as “played St. Louis” but I don’t doubt there’s more to it than that.

  84. neojanus says:

    Despite a dip in Corsi (a stat that doesn’t tell the entire story despite being a useful indication) something about Yakupov’s game seems more complete. He looks to be skating harder, competing more, and taking more intelligent puck risks instead of aimless ones (uhm… usually). I can’t give anything more precise than my observation, but other people are seeing it too despite numbers. Yak’s game has 36 more trips to the ice to build into next season. 4 goal posts less last week and we’re all really happy with where his game has gone since Nelson took over. Yak looked lost before; he now looks more confident and driven.

    I also feel that offensive zone perimeter play has drastically fallen — something that was inflating Eakins’ Corsi number but really doesn’t increase real scoring chances with this team. Cycling and firing low risks shots only to lose the blue-line and give up great scoring chances isn’t a great way to score. I find offensive zone time has decreased, but steering pucks to the net more directly has increased. Maybe I’m out to lunch; once again, my eyes see it that way. Look at the abysmal 5-on-3 where the terrible perimeter play takes over, generates one shot, but garners a lot of offensive zone time.

    I’d be more concerned with Hall at this point. He really seems off his game.

  85. McSorley33 says:

    RexLibris,

    Picking outside the top 2 prodigies…..very interesting choice for oilers.

    RNH, Drai, Yak2.

    Strome vs elite d-man?

    Unlike many in here, I harbour no illusions about Musil, Gernat or Simpson.

    Feel free to peruse top NHL prospect lists to find any Oiler besides Nurse.

    I could live with Strome if we can allocate next 2 picks to D-men.

    However, I feel Werenski/Hanifan/Kylington is what this organization – Desparately – needs.

    Allocated tons of currency on the forward position. Hence, the great disparity and the enjoyment of watching Ference, NN and Jultz.

    Werenski -4th
    Meloche -25th
    Vande Sompel 34th

  86. knighttown says:

    This worsening of Corsi doesn’t match at all what I’m seeing. It’s got to be all score effects. They are in every game and often score the first goal. I would expect CLOSE numbers to show a better picture but they’ve got the damn lead so often I’d even want to see TIED and +1 numbers.

    Any of you stats guys able to compare Eakins and Nelson in each of those score situations individually? I’d be shocked if we’re worse in any I think it’s just a matter of spending way less time in the minus areas where the Corsis start barking like mad.

  87. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    knighttown,

    Eye test says they’re in most games (not St Louis, we got owned) and they are more watchable as a result. I feel less like I want to euthanize myself when I’m watching.

    Now it’s the zebras or the occasional boneheaded breakdown by the usual suspects that ticks me off. I can at least be angry/passionate again vs. indifferent.

    I do worry a bit about the dead cat bounce effect, and no I don’t mean Dee Ess Eff, who I do miss around here.

  88. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    McSorley33,

    It’s going to be interesting. Marner is really trending because since game 8 he has outscored McDavid. He also didn’t hit puberty until super late, so by all accounts he is in the middle of growing. He is 5’11” and still growing.

    Hanifin, Marner, Strome, Werenski all likely in the range where the Oilers pick. Probably a lot of room to move around.

    Currently I still take Hanifin assuming we pick in front of Philly and can extract a ransom from Hextall/Snider.

  89. knighttown says:

    I’m not sure if Bruce is around today but as a fellow ref watcher I’d like his or anyone else’s opinion on what happened on that offside on the power play in the last 30 seconds of the second period yesterday.

    Typical breakin with Nuge slipping it to Hall on th left boards. He sort of chips it at. The blue line and picks it up and no call is made. He then has it on his stick for 1/2 second and chips it off Kulikovs face. The puck bounces around and lands at his or Nuges feet (can’t recall) and with Kuli dazed the Oilers effectively have a 3-on-1 with Ebs and the defenseman toward the net and Kulikov behind them.

    Then they blow the whistle. On-air Sportsnet called it offside but that couldn’t be right as Hall had full possession inside the blue line not to mention…it was clearly onside.

    I have no idea what the call was and of course Sportsnet failed to either show a replay or pick up on a potentially interesting situation.

    Anyone know what happened there?

    Someone made a good point the other day about linesman blaming down any plays that look weird as offside. I’m starting to wonder if after the Duchene incident they haven’t started to err on the side of caution.

  90. Hammers says:

    Green Bay up 6-0 but wasted two chances in red zone

  91. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    knighttown: Anyone know what happened there?

    I wondered too, but I thought maybe Nuge had touched it with his glove, and it was actually called for a glove pass?

  92. Pouzar says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Straw poll. How many of you cheering for Eskimos East today vs. the Seahawks?

    Not me. Only because I think the Seahawks have the best chance of beating one my most hated pro franchises.

  93. Rondo says:

    Brock Otten of OHL prospects had thoughts on Marner and Strome

    http://ohlprospects.blogspot.ca/2015/01/midseason-top-30-for-2015-nhl-entry.html

    “Interesting comparison RE: Strome and Monahan.

    I think there are certainly some aspects of their games which are very similar.

    I think Strome has more “natural” offensive ability, in that he’s a better stickhandler and has a better shot (and projects more as a goal scorer at the NHL level).

    But, Monahan was definitely the better two way player at the same age. That’s not to say that Strome is a poor defensive player, but Monahan involved himself more away from the puck and showed more “sense” on the backcheck.

    In terms of skating, size/body type, and playmaking ability they’re very close.

    I think Strome has a little more upside, but it’s very close.”

    RE: Bennett versus Marner

    “They are similar players in some regards.

    Both players are relentless in puck pursuit and excel as forecheckers.

    Both players are exceptionally smart in the offensive end and do a great job of creating scoring chances.

    They’re similar size and both project as potential top line NHL players.

    Bennett is the better NHL prospect IMO, but by a slight margin. Bennett is the more physical player. He’s also a little better defensively right now. And Bennett is the slightly better skater. That’s not because Marner is a poor skater, but because Bennett is an exceptional skater (on the same level as McDavid in terms of edging and agility).”

  94. book¡je says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: I wondered too, but I thought maybe Nuge had touched it with his glove, and it was actually called for a glove pass?

    I remember that play, I think it was called for being gloved ahead and Sportsnet got it wrong.

    I also noticed that there was no protest from the Oilers so I assumed it was an ok call.

  95. russ99 says:

    Re: Yak – give it time, it will take some time to de-Eakins-ize some of our players so they react on the ice instinctively rather than worrying about doing what the coach wants on every shift.

    Also, Corsi is a bad way to judge if he’s doing better with Roy as Nelson has (hopefully permanently) de-emphasIzed the cycle and Eakins had us keeping possession for possession’s sake.

    Saw an interesting article on Bleacher Report about the worst 10 NHL trades of the last 10 years. We weren’t on it, though if I wrote it the Visnovsky, Cole/Williams/O’Sullivan and Gilbert trades would at least gotten an honorable mention.

    But what really stood out was how the Trashers set themselves way, way back by trading core pieces for multiple pieces and/or futures. Should be a cautionary tale for those wanting the Oilers to move core pieces. If we have to do it, we should be trading for quality NHL players.

  96. knighttown says:

    And I’m glad to see LT come around on that one days “burn it to the ground” strategy. Indicates in this post to do nothing but push for Petry to be signed and keep his powder dry and I agree. The math hates 29th (Buffalo is getting Eichel) and 30th was never really an option.

    I’d be all for it if 29th got Eichel but it doesn’t.

    After seeing last night you can’t tell me wins in the second half are hollow, meaningless and counter productive.

    Yak is a different player. Lander looks every bit the NHLer that Klefbom does, that is, a good bet but still way too soon to take the foot off the gas. Goaltending.

    And Boyd Gordon and Matt Hendricks with 11 goals playing the toughest minutes in the goddamned NHL.

    Turn North gentlemen. Turn North.

  97. Pouzar says:

    13-0….oh sh!t

  98. knighttown says:

    book¡je: I remember that play, I think it was called for being gloved ahead and Sportsnet got it wrong.

    I also noticed that there was no protest from the Oilers so I assumed it was an ok call.

    Ok guys. That makes sense. Sportsnet just going through the motions. Remember Jack Edwards in Boston a few weeks ago losing his mind over the puck off the netting? There’s someone engaged in the game. (Obviously a haaaaair homerish but at least he’s watching!)

  99. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Pouzar:
    13-0….oh sh!t

    Assuming you hate the Pats. Wouldn’t worry. Luck’s going to the Super Bowl.

  100. russ99 says:

    Seahawks gotta wake up on offense soon. Can’t over-rely on D to keep them in this or they’re going to wear down in the second half.

  101. PeOiler says:

    Tkachev playing 1LW on Duclairs line today. Marco Roy looks to be 4C.

  102. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Seattle is determined to blow themselves up today, it seems.

  103. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    That’s a really, really dirty hit by Matthews.

  104. G Money says:

    knighttown: As a novice stats guy my eyes don’t smooth out those peaks and troughs like I imagine yours do. I wonder if you might redo with rolling 10 game stretches as I often see others do. I just see that inflection point as “played St. Louis” but I don’t doubt there’s more to it than that.

    I’ll freely admit that eyeball curve smoothing is something that I do automatically and (with extensive experience at it) am often surprisingly accurate (he says with false modesty). But it can also be very very wrong, especially with small samples like this one. i.e. many grains of salt.

    What I normally do is when I want to compare performance before and after some event, I run regression lines, which at least provide an objective measure to trend. I didn’t add them to the chart (it’s a bit of a pain), but they are very close to what I drew by hand.

    10 game and other moving (aka rolling) averages are great for smoothing but since we only really have a little over 10 games of Nelson, there isn’t enough to move the needle on a 10 game MA, so I didn’t bother in this case. It will be a useful technique by the time we get to the end of the season.

    knighttown: This worsening of Corsi doesn’t match at all what I’m seeing. It’s got to be all score effects. They are in every game and often score the first goal. I would expect CLOSE numbers to show a better picture but they’ve got the damn lead so often I’d even want to see TIED and +1 numbers.

    I do think score effects play a part (Corsi-wise, the Oilers are like Chicago when behind and like Buffalo when ahead), but not as much as you’d think. 5×5 CF Close under Eakins was 48.0%, under Nelson is 45.9%. Closer but still a meaningful degradation.

    Still think we’ll see the “usual” new coach curve – degradation, then volatility, then build up, then “new normal”. And the new normal will occur sometime after that 20th game.

    So I’m overlaying that basic pattern over top of the data we have so far, but at this point it’s art, not science!

    knighttown: After seeing last night you can’t tell me wins in the second half are hollow, meaningless and counter productive.
    Yak is a different player. Lander looks every bit the NHLer that Klefbom does, that is, a good bet but still way too soon to take the foot off the gas. Goaltending.

    Hmmm, well I’d balance that with the fact that it’s not the wins that matter – it’s Yak and Schultz. I’ve been pretty consistent in saying this since Nelson took over … if he can help Yak reach his 1OV potential and the result is a bunch of wins that cost us McEichel, it’s totally worth it. I’d rather have Yak and the e.g. 5OV then McEichel and say good bye to Yak as talent ruined.

    Schultz is a secondary but still relevant consideration – he hasn’t looked like an NHL defenseman since the first 20 games he played after leaving OKC. Coincidentally about enough time for Nelson’s coaching to wear off and Krueger’s to kick in!

    If both those guys live up to their considerable potential, the wins are worth it.

    If they don’t, the wins are meaningless, and just lengthen InfiniRebuild 5.0 (or is it 7.0? I forget … every revolution of the hamster wheel looks the same).

  105. 8p0intgame says:

    I Googled “problems in the Middle East” a little while back and now I get “Meet Muslim Singles” ads.

  106. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    That’s a really, really dirty hit by Matthews.

    Wut?

  107. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Ah. The only FL I watch, is DFL…

  108. Hammers says:

    3 interceptions on Wilson . Penalties and G.B. Defence. Shocked as I thought this was today’s best game . Then again Arsenal and West Ham both won .

  109. Hammers says:

    Thinking earlier about Nelson and he seems to be a coach that doesn’t rely on the pat on the back or kick up the arse . Reminds me of a coach who said you have to have a finger on the pulse of players plus the team . Utilize who you have and get the best out of them game in and game out.

  110. TheOtherJohn says:

    Assuming Oil blow out Petry: Wonder if Tallon would see Petry as an upgrade on Gudbranson? Gudbranson is currently playing 3rd pairing minutes, is signed for reasonable $$ this year and next and is still an RFA thereafter

    No question the Oilers would have to add value to make such a deal but if Petry would sign there (no state income tax) hewould improve their D nad might help them into the playoffs. Also a young RHD coming back

  111. Black Frank says:

    Doomoil:
    Google ads are determined by the users browsing history. If you use gmail you’ probably get the same ads here as you do at gmail. They are not random.

    I do second the Amazon affiliate suggestion though.

    The ads I get on this site are quite different to the ones I get everywhere else. I have no interest in, nor have ever browsed Asian nor Russian brides, nor do I want photos of singles in my area.
    I used ad blocker for a while but then stopped due to a guilty conscience. However if you click the X at the top right corner of the ad you get a set of choices, I label the ad as inappropriate.
    and no, I don’t frequent the type of sites that one would expect to trigger such ads.
    I just figured the demographic of the blog triggered them.

    But I also would love to be able to buy all my Amazon stuff through this blog.

  112. Klima's_Bucket says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Sorry but I highly doubt Tallon feels Petry is an upgrade on Gudbranson now or in the long run.
    I could see Tallon trading Pirri or Trocheck and a 2nd for Petry however as the Panthers only have two right shot Dman and have too many forwards.

  113. godot10 says:

    Any single indicator should be confirmed or non-confirmed by other indicators.

    Eakins slightly improved Corsi was completely unconfirmed by essentially every other indicator. Results, special teams, player development, practices, goal differential. One cannot put any faith in Corsi, if every other indicator sucks.

    A slightly worse Corsi if most other indicators turning upward suggests that one is now seeing a more valid result indicating exactly where the team stands.

    An isolated indicator that is green, when everything else is red suggests a false positive.

  114. AZOIL says:

    VanOil:
    I would love the Oilers/MacT to go Opposite George on there modus operandi. Change at the top is probably too much to hope for, therefor so is the change in the way the Poop Deck is run.

    But imagine a reversal on how the Oilers view centers, rookies, and competition for roster spots.

    Trading Jultz + for Thornton plus signing Roy would allow for an all veteran Center line up of;

    Nuge, Thornton, Roy, Gordon.

    Draisaitl, Lander, Yakimov, Next Magic Bean can earn there way onto the roster as wingers or by being consistently better than the 4 men above.

    I hope for this every day. Imagine what Thornton could bring to this team and then move Roy and Gordon down a spot. Let our high scoring wingers learn under the tutulage of a responsible center on every line. Didn’t SJS try and push Thornton out over the summer?

    Then send our 2016 1st and whatever else away for some D help and we are cooking with oil!

  115. godot10 says:

    Black Frank: The ads I get on this site are quite different to the ones I get everywhere else. I have no interest in, nor have ever browsed Asian nor Russian brides, nor do I want photos of singles in my area.
    I used ad blocker for a while but then stopped due to a guilty conscience. However if you click the X at the top right corner of the ad you get a set of choices, I label the ad as inappropriate.
    and no, I don’t frequent the type of sites that one would expect to trigger such ads.
    I just figured the demographic of the blog triggered them.

    But I also would love to be able to buy all my Amazon stuff through this blog.

    There are pictures of women routinely in this blog, as well as a discussion of Russia. If Lowetide dropped the shots of ScarJo and we stopped discussing Russia hockey players, and one was more behaved elsewhere in one’s web browsing the dating ads would probably disappear. Hockey is not the only content of this blog.

  116. striker says:

    Bruhaha on twitter about this Rob Tychkowski tweet from last night.

    “Todd Nelson reveals that Oilers analytics guy had been the one advising against using Yakupov in shootouts.”

    The Sun scribe misrepresents what Todd Nelson actually said.

    Pretty obvious from the actual interview that Nelson was joking about there being no analytics on Yak since this was his first shootout attempt.

  117. VanOil says:

    godot10: dropped the shots of ScarJo and we stopped discussing Russia hockey players

    Now your talking Crazy!!!

  118. jake70 says:

    Some of the ads mentioned are funny, that seniors dating and cleavage tops it though. LOL

  119. VanOil says:

    AZOIL: Didn’t SJS try and push Thornton out over the summer?

    Yes, they were gripped with stupidity in SJ last summer and no one took advantage. The no-trade clause probably didn’t help.

  120. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    godot10: There are pictures of women routinely in this blog

    I blame Ingrid Kavelaars.

  121. VanOil says:

    I am sure Petry could of been locked up long term for less than Staal’s $5.7M per. Bad MacT.

  122. Lowetide says:

    knighttown:
    And I’m glad to see LT come around on that one days “burn it to the ground” strategy. Indicates in this post to do nothing but push for Petry to be signed and keep his powder dry and I agree. The math hates 29th (Buffalo is getting Eichel) and 30th was never really an option.

    I’d be all for it if 29th got Eichel but it doesn’t.

    After seeing last night you can’t tell me wins in the second half are hollow, meaningless and counter productive.

    Yak is a different player. Lander looks every bit the NHLer that Klefbom does, that is, a good bet but still way too soon to take the foot off the gas. Goaltending.

    And Boyd Gordon and Matt Hendricks with 11 goals playing the toughest minutes in the goddamned NHL.

    Turn North gentlemen. Turn North.

    I’ve seen some growth under Nelson, gotta say. Don’t know if it’s real or that dumb damn heart lying to me one more time.

  123. VanOil says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: I blame Ingrid Kavelaars.

    Well played

  124. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    AZOIL,

    I agree. Been advocating for the Oilers to keep their 1st rounder this year, but trade some other assets to get Marleau or Thornton from San Jose, especially if they miss the playoffs and decide to blow it up again.

    Yak with Thornton. Drool

    Pouliot-Thornton-Yakupov
    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Draisaitl-Roy-Lander
    Hendricks-Gordon-Klinkhammer

    Fix the D and G and that’s a good team. (Plus whatever draft pick this year on the way)

    Holy shit we have a game in Seattle.

  125. Black Frank says:

    godot10: and one was more behaved elsewhere in one’s web browsing

    Comments like that are exactly why I haven’t bothered to raise the subject prior to LT in his opening blog. If I was less well behaved than I am in my web browsing, then I’m pretty sure that these ads would follow me around just as the others do, nor would I bother to raise the subject even under these circumstances. But I don’t and these ads only turn up on this site which makes me think it’s something to do with the site itself.
    Nor do I think any of LT’s photos are anything but tasteful. Hence my guess at the demographics around Hockey blog commenters.

  126. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Wow, talk about a game where all the stats favoured Green Bay, but the stats didn’t matter. That was improbable.

  127. VanOil says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Wow, talk about a game where all the stats favoured Green Bay, but the stats didn’t matter. That was improbable.

    I can not imagine the heart break in Wisconsin right now. Crazy game.

  128. Yeti says:

    Black Frank: The ads I get on this site are quite different to the ones I get everywhere else. I have no interest in, nor have ever browsed Asian nor Russian brides, nor do I want photos of singles in my area.
    I used ad blocker for a while but then stopped due to a guilty conscience.

    I get exactly the same stuff. And boots, lots of boots even though I’ve never bought boots/shoes online. I think I once got a ‘Joe Bonamassa new tour dates’ ad and I’d very much like more of that.

  129. Yeti says:

    godot10: Hockey is not the only content of this blog.

    At any given moment I’m expecting to encounter an ad for 16-year old Lagavulin single malt. It’s like LT’s balance picture – it really should have arrived by now but somehow remains tantalisingly out of reach.

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