OVERNIGHT SENSATION

The Edmonton Oilers’ scouts have been taking a beating since Bob Nicholson appeared on Toronto radio and delivered blows upon them. Maybe the ‘overnight sensation’ that Anton Lander is becoming will give later picks—Pitlick, Marincin, Hamilton—some cover and allow them to develop. For a fan base that talks a lot about the Detroit system, surely we can recognize Lander as an absolute comparable to the Holland tunnel.

PLAYER BOXCARS CORSI FOR % OZ STARTS 5X5 PER 60 5×4 PER 60
ANTON LANDER 12gp, 1-6-7 46.2 45.9 2.30 5.33

That’s some pretty nice hockeying there, Anton Lander. Keep it up! The MacGregor era second-round picks (Lander, Pitlick, Marincin, Musil, Moroz, Roy) may have one success if Lander can sustain his fine work this season. Scott Cullen’s work suggests a second-round selection has a 28% chance of success (success=100 NHL games), meaning Edmonton should get 1.68 players out of the MacGregor six when all is said and done. The Oilers will probably fire MacGregor into the sun over the summer (along with the scouts) but the Nicholson verbal assaulted the wrong era of Oilers drafts. 2007 men, and the years around it. That’s where to start the shooting and Kevin Prendergast hasn’t been near a draft table since.

McKenzie list is the draft Bible and his midseason edition scrolled out last night on TSN. Let’s have a look at the 60 names and view the  names through an Oilers lens. Edmonton’s picks this morning are No. 2, No. 23 and No. 32.

MCKENZIE’S LIST

  1. C Connor McDavid. Actual Jesus.
  2. C Jake Eichel. Franchise player.
  3. D Noah Hanifin. Complete skill set, just turned 18. New Pietrangelo?
  4. C Dylan Strome. Exceptional offensive player, the good Strome and the other guy is terrific.
  5. R Mitch Marner. Elite offensive player in junior, listed as a RW.
  6. L Lawson Crouse. Two-way winger, he’ll need to be Gainey in order to cover this bet.
  7. C Pavel Zacha. Big, fast, strong. Hasn’t displayed the skill to be taken this high, especially in this draft.
  8. D Zach Werenski. May be hurt or helped by similarity to Hanifin. The better offensive player of the two.
  9. R Mikko Rantanen. Big, strong power winger whose offense is perhaps a little shy.
  10. C Mathew Barzal. Gifted C just back from injury, he’s going to have to catch up to the pace.
  11. D Oliver Kylington. Wonderful range of skills, could be best defender in the draft.
  12. D Ivan Provorov. Considerable evidence he’ll be the best offensive defenseman in the draft.
  13. C Kyle Connor. I’d be leery of taking a USHL player here.
  14. L Paul Bittner. Big two-way winger, I like him but not this much.
  15. R Travis Konecny. Coming alive after slow start, highly skilled.
  16. D Jakub Zboril. A puck-moving defender with size.
  17. D Brando Carlo. Huge defenseman with some skill. A trending player.
  18. C Colin White. Skill center hasn’t played much.
  19. C Nick Merkley. Powerful skater with plus playmaking ability. This is too low by plenty.
  20. R Timo Meier. Exceptional prospect, very good offensive player in junior.
  21. R Evgeny Svechnikov. Major skill, size, speed.
  22. L Jordan Greenway. Huge winger with some skill. Way too high here based on math.
  23. D Erik Cernak. I don’t know much about him. 6.03, 203.
  24. C Filip Chlapik. Impressive young player, very creative.
  25. D Jeremy Roy. Quality two-way defender. Smart player.
  26. R Brock Boeser. Appears to be a talented tank.
  27. D Thomas Chabot. Terrific skater.
  28. L Jake DeBrusk. Skilled winger, he’s having an excellent run.
  29. C Jeremy Bracco. NO idea why this small skill center isn’t getting more attention.
  30. C Nicholas Roy. Tall, rangy playmaker who can play center or wing.

eichel

LOWETIDE LIST (McKenzie’s No. in brackets)

  1. (1) C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL)
  2. (2) C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA)
  3. (5) C Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL)
  4. (3) D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA)
  5. (4) C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL)
  6. (11) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL)
  7. (8) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA).
  8. (9) R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML). 
  9. (12) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL)
  10. (10) C Nick Merkley, Kelowna (WHL).
  11. (21) L Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton (QMJHL).
  12. (29) D Jeremy Roy, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL)
  13. (58) C Anthony Beauvillier, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL).
  14. (7) C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia Sting (OHL)
  15. (6) L Lawson Crouse, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL).
  16. (31) C Jansen Harkins, Prince George Cougars (WHL)
  17. (10) C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL)
  18. (24) C Filip Chlapik, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL).
  19. (32) R Daniel Sprong, Charlettown Islanders (QMJHL)
  20. (20) R Timo Meier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL).
  21. (40) R Nikita Korostelev, Sarnia Sting (OHL)
  22. (15) C Travis Konecny, Ottawa 67’s (OHL).
  23. (28) L Jake Debrusk, Swift Current (WHL).
  24. (NR) D Mitchell Vande Sompel, Oshawa (OHL) 
  25. (52) L Dennis Yan, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL).
  26. (38) R Jens Looke, Brynas (SHL).
  27. (16) D Jakub Zboril, Saint John Seadogs (QMJHL).
  28. (29) C Jeremy Bracco, USND (USHL).
  29. (13) C Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL).
  30. (56) L Ryan Gropp, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL).

Using the McKenzie numbers (and my list), Edmonton should see the following players as ‘best available’ when they select:

  • No. 2: Franchise center Jack Eichel.
  • No. 23: Intelligent two-way defender Jeremy Roy.
  • No. 32: Brilliant offensive center Anthony Beauvillier.

I’d predict Edmonton drafts:

  • No. 2: Jack Eichel
  • No. 23: Paul Bittner
  • No. 32: Mackenzie Blackwood

In a perfect world Edmonton selects:

  • No. 2: Jack Eichel
  • No. 23: Timo Meier
  • No. 32: Jake Debrusk

We wait.

LAST 10 GAMES

scoring jan 30

The great thing about this? Some real depth in offense. I know the numbers above come after a win against Buffalo but there are seven forwards here scoring at .500/game or above. There are 28 goals (2.80 per game) and the same number against in that time. Don’t look now but Klefbom—Schultz may actually be a thing.

REPLACING NIKI

Based on verbal coming from management, I’d say any of Brandon Davidson, Jordan Oesterle or Dillon Simpson could get the call. Keith Aulie may play in front of them (Nelson seems quite traditional in end-of-roster management so far) and of course there’s whipping boy Martin Marincin also in photo. The fact Edmonton suits haven’t mentioned David Musil and Martin Gernat is a tell, and somewhere on the planet Frank Musil is no doubt fuming.

I’ll say Davidson gets the call and be shocked when they send out the press release telling us Chris Hajt has been activated. Dylan Olsen is also a (distant) possibility.

Ann Margret

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Stellar show to end the week! TSN 1260, 10 this morning:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. Leafs falling, Super Bowl.
  • Guy Flaming, Leon’s play and McKenzie’s list.
  • Jeff Hauser, Radio Hauser and Super Bowl.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. Talk soon!

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

192 Responses to "OVERNIGHT SENSATION"

  1. thejonrmcleod says:

    I’ve seen a lot of Timo Meier here in Halifax, and I’ve never been too impressed with him. Some of it might be his skating style. He skates very upright and seems to get knocked off the puck too easily.

  2. speeds says:

    Do you think that a strong stretch of games from Lander until nearer the trade deadline would potentially, in the minds of EDM’s management, free them to move Gordon were a good/great offer to develop?

  3. Lowetide says:

    speeds:
    Do you think that a strong stretch of games from Lander until nearer the trade deadline would potentially, in the minds of EDM’s management, free them to move Gordon were a good/great offer to develop?

    I think they should consider it, mostly because Gordon has a year left. I really like Gordon but that’s an asset that needs to be cashed IF the return is significant. And I think it might be.

  4. JamesL says:

    Ladies and gentlemen, “The Ballad of Anton Lander”:

    I fit those words to a good melody
    Amazing how success has been ignoring me
    So, long I use my bread making demos all day
    Writing in the night while in my head I hear
    The record play… hear it play

  5. HiddenDarts says:

    Lowetide,

    Arrghh. We’re trading Gordon again! C’mon, guys! Have a little mercy. I just got up over here!

  6. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide: I think they should consider it, mostly because Gordon has a year left. I really like Gordon but that’s an asset that needs to be cashed IF the return is significant. And I think it might be.

    Getting rid of Gordon this year, could also free up some cash space for next year to get both a number 1 goalie and a top pairing D man. I don’t think we can get both right now.

    Draft picks will have significant value this summer,

    Lander could fill Gordons spot. Maybe not as well, but do a decent job.

  7. Lucinius says:

    Well, as a long-time supporter of Lander I was thrilled to see his efforts last night get rewarded. In 12 games this year he has established a new career best (his previous best season was 2-4-6 in 57 games).

    As for trading Gordon? I say no. Regardless of how the Oilers may or may not do next year, a guy like Gordon is essential in helping players like Lander grow into their roles, imo. Yes, you could miss some return by not trading him this season, but the Oilers need to actually improve the team, not constantly ship players out for picks that, more often than not, never result in anything tangible. One year of Gordon is more than worth the third, or fourth pick in this year’s draft. And you never know; he may re-sign in Edmonton next season if it goes better than this season (and it will; if only because this season has been such a travesty and comedy of errors from management down — and hey, no more Eakins!)

  8. bsmart says:

    Lowetide: I think they should consider it, mostly because Gordon has a year left. I really like Gordon but that’s an asset that needs to be cashed IF the return is significant. And I think it might be.

    The only way I trade Gordon is for a late first pick or an 30-40 range 2nd rndr. Otheriwse I keep him, he is too valuable.

  9. HiddenDarts says:

    Long live the Edmonton Oilers management motto: “find good players, trade them for magic beans, rinse and repeat!”

  10. TemujinBC says:

    To paraphrase someone around here, “The Oilers know that if they trade Boyd Gordon, they don’t have Boyd Gordon anymore, right?”

    Now I understand he’s no Malkin but what kind of return has to be good enough?

    Doesn’t Nuge-Drai-Gordon-Lander/Eichel have a nice ring to it? I suppose Eichel is way out of place there but I think you catch the drift.

    If Gordon fetches some serious help on D that’s one thing, but this has Because Oilers written all over it

  11. PhrankLee says:

    Lowetide: I think they should consider it, mostly because Gordon has a year left.

    I’m in the camp of do it now while the market value is highest. He is a stellar asset. One that has a chance to contribute toward a key shortcoming.

    I don’t want to “Gilbert” him but he should attract a ton of interest at the deadline.

  12. Caramel Obvious says:

    If a second round pick only has a 28% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL then you should never trade an NHL player who will play for you in the following season for a second round pick. Never.

    One year of Boyd Gordon is infinitely more valuable than a 28% chance at Anton Lander.

    Teams that are selling their players sell way too low in my opinion. Boyd Gordon is easily worth a first round pick. Hell, he’s worth more than a first round pick.

    If I’m running an NHL team I don’t trade for late round picks unless it’s guys like Nick Schultz that I’d rather not have anyway.

  13. Symbology says:

    I wouldn’t trade Gordon, I’d make him the Captain. A character guy that is one of the best at his position is exactly what this team needs to move forward. We’ve got a great 4th line, now stop tinkering with it and fix the rest of the problems, and you’re not going to do that with the 2nd or 3rd round pick you would get by trading Gordon at this point.

  14. Pajamah says:

    As much as Lander, Roy, Pouliot stand out as having a great 10 game run, credit where it is due to Jultz. Less Jultzing by eye, and it shows in his +5.

    Nelson is an absolute defense-whisperer.

    And back to Lander (sort of), if this is the level of expectation and Nelson is the one pushing all the right buttons, then why not chance a little year end audition again for Marincin.

    You can’t always reward just potential, and it cant always be about results (see: Giroux, Alex), but why not just see. We talk about guys getting ruined by being brought up too fast, we gripe when they slow-play bona-fide prospects, why not have it somewhere in the middle.

  15. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    I disagree completely on the “trade Gordon while his value is high” notion.

    I’d say extend him for 2 more years this summer, in fact.
    Continuity–I know the OIlers don’t seem to believe in it, but there is some value to it.

    Re: the draft rankings.

    I’ve said in the past this draft is looking like
    1) Crosby
    2) Malkin
    3) Pietrangelo

    Thing is Hanifin’s skating is better than Pietrangelo’s. His skating is his best asset. “Skates like Scott Niedermayer” is the assessment from the scout in the McKenzie article. He may not bring the offense at the NHL level, but he is going to be a wonderful skater.

    I agree with your lower rankings of Crouse and Zacha. We talked about it yesterday, how forwards with less than 1PPG in their draft year taken in the top 10 are a mixed bag at best, not great at worst.

    Would love for the Oilers to move up and draft Zacha (if they in fact like him) if he slips to your draft number or lower. I just don’t see the box cars there and his injury doesn’t help. Hopefully he slides as a result. That said, scouts seem to love his tools so much he may go way too high.

    Eichel would be ideal, but so would Hanifin.

  16. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Why the hate for Lawson Crouse?

    Most scouts have him in the top 6. He made the WJr’s at an age of 17 1/2 against excellent competition .He plays for a team with no centers. As I said before if Sam Bennett was healthy he would probably play with him and his point totals would be good.

    Fans jump on the point total like they know something the scouts don’t.

  17. Showerhead says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    If a second round pick only has a 28% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL then you should never trade an NHL player who will play for you in the following season for a second round pick.Never.

    One year of Boyd Gordon is infinitely more valuable than a 28% chance at Anton Lander.

    Teams that are selling their players sell way too low in my opinion.Boyd Gordon is easily worth a first round pick.Hell, he’s worth more than a first round pick.

    If I’m running an NHL team I don’t trade for late round picks unless it’s guys like Nick Schultz that I’d rather not have anyway.

    I wholeheartedly agree, with the caveat that this would only apply when I was trying to build a good team – IE not rebuilding. Boyd Gordon for a 1/3 chance at Boyd Gordon is an awful bet, in my mind.

    Now, there is always the chance that the goal is not to be good right away. Or the chance that the player hates you and never wants to play for your team again. Or the chance that you don’t look at it as a 1/3 chance at Boyd Gordon, you see a 1/10 chance for Patrice Bergeron, AND you’re desperate.

    I get that you have to throw some darts if you’re ever to hit the target but if you already have a need filled, with certainty, I don’t see why you’d mess with that.

  18. PhrankLee says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: I disagree completely on the “trade Gordon while his value is high” notion.

    I am approaching it from the trade Boyd Gordon and the Pittsburgh pick for a puzzle piece. A ture top pairing D or a top 15 goalie. I’d make that deal in a second. We overpay Gordo and need the system to cover that role at more reasonable dollars. It may be possible with the current and near future C prospect list soon to be bristling with huge guys who can skate and check.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    LT,

    Why the hate for Lawson Crouse?

    Most scouts have him in the top 6. He made the WJr’sat an age of 17 1/2against excellent competition.He plays for a team with no enters.As I s aid before if Sam Bennett was healthy he would probablyplay with him and his point totals would be good.

    Fans jump on the point total like they know something the scouts don’t.

    We do know something the scouts aren’t factoring in:

    1. The hardest thing in the world to do is score goals.
    2. There are 30 guys who do it better than Crouse in this draft

  20. Bag of Pucks says:

    “In a perfect world Edmonton select…Eichel 2”

    I would think the ‘perfect’ scenario is Edmonton wins the lottery & drafts Hockey Jesus who raises this Lazarus team from the dead?

    The NHL would likely disagree.

  21. Unicorns says:

    I think the Oilers trading any NHL calibre player is foolish. However, at the same time we bash them for poor asset management. If Gordon gets dealt for peanuts at the deadline next year I’ll say the Oilers blew it again because Gordon like Petry is valuable, he is not a stone hands slow old checking D, a step up from there.

    MacT told Gordon the team would be competitive within his contract. If there have been no discussions as to resigning MacT has painted himself into another corner, the asset has to be cashed. They have to stop losing team equity, getting little for good players, they need to build depth.

    Trading a quality vet for another, getting a good prospect or high pick even if not ideal is better than a low or zero return. What if Gordon got injured before the deadline next year like Hemsky always seemed to?

    Lander is a reasonable replacement because of the role he would be asked to play, third or fourth line C. It’s still risky but it’s not like asking raw players to play first pairing D or top 6 F at a high level. Or gambling on unproven goalies.

  22. Bag of Pucks says:

    For a site that so obviously appreciates the value of a player like Stan Weir, we sure trade Boyd Gordon a lot.

  23. Ben says:

    Accruing draft picks now puts us in a good spot when the $0.60 Canadian dollar salary cap liquidates the cap-team candy shop at draft time.

    Trading solid veterans for draft picks seems a bunch cannier if that currency gets turned back into ‘actual NHL players’ at a time of more advantageous supply-demand.

    2nd rd pick? Bye bye Boyd!

  24. Bruce McCurdy says:

    TemujinBC:
    To paraphrase someone around here, “The Oilers know that if they trade Boyd Gordon, they don’t have Boyd Gordon anymore, right?”

    Now I understand he’s no Malkin but what kind of return has to be good enough?

    Doesn’t Nuge-Drai-Gordon-Lander/Eichel have a nice ring to it?I suppose Eichel is way out of place there but I think you catch the drift.

    If Gordon fetches some serious help on D that’s one thing, but this has Because Oilers written all over it

    No shit. Oiler dumped Jarret Stoll and Kyle Brodziak & we were hearing that bottom six C’s grew on UFA trees. So then it was a bunch of guys like Ryan Potulny and Colin Fraser & 20-year old Anton Lander & let’s finally solve the problem once & for all by signing Eric F. Belanger. Oops, that didn’t work? Let’s trade a pick for Jerred Smithson.

    Then we finally get a Gord-damned guy who can do the job & we’re gonna get rid of him for yet another pick? Cuz in 5 years that pick might turn out to be last year’s Anton Lander. Or, he might be Kyle Bigos. But hey … shiny!!

  25. rickithebear says:

    TemujinBC:
    To paraphrase someone around here, “The Oilers know that if they trade Boyd Gordon, they don’t have Boyd Gordon anymore, right?”

    Now I understand he’s no Malkin but what kind of return has to be good enough?

    Doesn’t Nuge-Drai-Gordon-Lander/Eichel have a nice ring to it?I suppose Eichel is way out of place there but I think you catch the drift.

    If Gordon fetches some serious help on D that’s one thing, but this has Because Oilers written all over it

    Draisatl ishould play RW next year.

    Rondo:
    LT,

    Why the hate for Lawson Crouse?

    Most scouts have him in the top 6. He made the WJr’sat an age of 17 1/2against excellent competition.He plays for a team with no enters.As I s aid before if Sam Bennett was healthy he would probablyplay with him and his point totals would be good.

    Fans jump on the point total like they know something the scouts don’t.

    I look at teamates played with
    2/3 .82 PPG players
    and
    1/3 ..44 PPG player

    He has .69 PPG forward support.
    Crouse .72 PPG
    scoring 70% goals.
    when your passingthe puck
    to players the puck dies on.
    It is best just to try to score!
    his numbers say at least
    a 37 EVP player top for Wingers top 20 per side
    with at least
    21 EVG top 15 for wingers.

    Last year he seemed to be able to pass

  26. Bag of Pucks says:

    Serious question. If the team plays .500 hockey under Nelson for the remainder of the season, do you remove the interim tag without interviewing other candidates?

    For the sake of context, let’s assume Babcock has prettier dancing partners.

  27. oliveoilers says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    If a second round pick only has a 28% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL then you should never trade an NHL player who will play for you in the following season for a second round pick.Never.

    One year of Boyd Gordon is infinitely more valuable than a 28% chance at Anton Lander.

    Teams that are selling their players sell way too low in my opinion.Boyd Gordon is easily worth a first round pick.Hell, he’s worth more than a first round pick.

    If I’m running an NHL team I don’t trade for late round picks unless it’s guys like Nick Schultz that I’d rather not have anyway.

    100% agree. Usually I would advocate changing the bottom 6 with the bath water. But Gordon has serious value. Both to other teams and us. Keep him and let him be part of the turn around. Start negotiations now.

  28. CockyHockey says:

    I might be stating the obvious but we really should be debating the 3rd overall pick, at best, as I trust we all agree Buffalo is finishing 30th.

    If Oilers finish 29th, odds are 20% chance they get Eichel , 13.5% chance they get McJesus, and 66.5% chance they pick Hanafin/Strome.

    To me the real debate is big skilled C, or all-around D. Will be interesting.

  29. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ben:
    Accruing draft picks now puts us in a good spot when the $0.60 Canadian dollar salary cap liquidates the cap-team candy shop at draft time.

    Trading solid veterans for draft picks seems a bunch cannier if that currency gets turned back into ‘actual NHL players’ at a time of more advantageous supply-demand.

    2nd rd pick?Bye bye Boyd!

    I realize you’re exaggerating, but you realize that an $0.60 Candian dollar turns a $70 MM USD salary cap into $117 MM CDN, right? And that much of Oilers’ income is in the form of Canadian dollars, right? But hey, it’s Katz’s money, he’ll always spend it just as we please, just like he always has. And right to the salary cap, because he is morally bound to do so.

    Ask a Sens fan for details about what happens when your team is on a budget that is <<< salary cap.

  30. oliveoilers says:

    Ben:
    Accruing draft picks now puts us in a good spot when the $0.60 Canadian dollar salary cap liquidates the cap-team candy shop at draft time.

    Trading solid veterans for draft picks seems a bunch cannier if that currency gets turned back into ‘actual NHL players’ at a time of more advantageous supply-demand.

    2nd rd pick?Bye bye Boyd!

    Boo Ben!

  31. PhrankLee says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Then we finally get a Gord-damned guy who can do the job & we’re gonna get rid of him for yet another pick?

    Where does the trade him for a pick narrative come from? I think most would agree this is not the best idea. I want to offer him in a package for a top priority hole in the line up.

    Trading him for a prospect or pick is silly, agreed.

  32. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Seriously, trading Boyd Gordon is asinine. Turn this season around under Nelson, finish strong, re-sign Gordon in the summer. Even with MacTavish’s ability to find this player type, you are vastly underestimating how many of these player types are out there and available. Sami Pahlsson was worth so much to the Ducks. Boyd Gordon will be worth so much to the Oilers when they turn north.

    You get the cap space by trading Purcell and Ference if he will accept a move and by buying out Nikitin, not by trading Gordon.

    You then use 2016 picks and other assets to acquire someone that makes sense from the list of: Sharp, Thornton, Marleau, Eric Staal, Soderberg, etc. I know they have very different salaries, ages and values. You pick one that makes sense. Some of these guys will be victims of rebuilds (SJ/CAR and some will be victims of the cap, CHI/BOS).

    You offer Roy another year at $2M, see if he takes it.

    Hall-Thornton-Yakupov
    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Lander-Roy-Fraser/Pakarinen
    Klinkhammer-Gordon-Hendricks

    Lander also serves as the 5th C and can slide into the middle as needed for injuries.

    Draisaitl plays 1C in the AHL until you ship Roy out at the deadline next year.
    Nurse plays a full year in the AHL next year.

    You acquire a Hjalmarsson or Oduya or Seabrook from Chicago if you can, or look around at other cap-strapped teams. And yes, I know Seabrook will cost a lot more to acquire than some other guys. Again, find the best value you can.

    Hjalmarsson-Petry
    Marincin-Fayne
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Aulie

    Scrivens/???

    You aim high on a template like that, and prepare for the likelihood that you may settle for something less, but you’re going in the right direction.

  33. frjohnk says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    I disagree completely on the “trade Gordon while his value is high” notion.

    I’d say extend him for 2 more years this summer, in fact.
    Continuity–I know the OIlers don’t seem to believe in it, but there is some value to it.

    Re: the draft rankings.

    I’ve said in the past this draft is looking like
    1) Crosby
    2) Malkin
    3) Pietrangelo

    Thing is Hanifin’s skating is better than Pietrangelo’s. His skating is his best asset. “Skates like Scott Niedermayer” is the assessment from the scout in the McKenzie article. He may not bring the offense at the NHL level, but he is going to be a wonderful skater.

    I agree with your lower rankings of Crouse and Zacha. We talked about it yesterday, how forwards with less than 1PPG in their draft year taken in the top 10 are a mixed bag at best, not great at worst.

    Would love for the Oilers to move up and draft Zacha (if they in fact like him) if he slips to your draft number or lower. I just don’t see the box cars there and his injury doesn’t help. Hopefully he slides as a result. That said, scouts seem to love his tools so much he may go way too high.

    Eichel would be ideal, but so would Hanifin.

    Yup, I like Hanifan at 3.

    Some people think people D at the top is voodoo.

    I disagree.

    Small sample size but I looked at the D picked from 2003 to 2010.

    37 D men picked in the top 15.

    If you strip out the Dmen who were big ( 6 foot 1 and taller) but had “skating issues” in their draft year ( 11 of these) you are left with 26 D men. ( If you pick a big d man in the top 15 with “skating issues, the best they become is a third pairing D man, Jared Cowan and Luke Schenn are the best of this bunch)

    So out of those 26 D men
    4 D men are 6 feet and under. Hickey, Ellis, Karllson and Shattenkirk

    The rest are 6 foot 1 and bigger with good to elite skating.
    There is a 75% chance they make it as a top 3 Dman.

    Now if we take that list and add skill to it. Only two D men would not be considered top 3, which are De Hann and Gormley. Injuries have hampered their development but they could still make it.

    But strip this list even further. Find the D man at 18 who:
    Has good to great size
    Elite Skating
    Plays with his head up ( great vision)
    Puts up good points in a league like the CHL or higher
    Has played a big role in the WJC

    Only 1 player before this year. Drew Doughty.

    Noah Hanifan and Zack Werenski this year.

    But Hanifan was rated number 3 by nine of ten scouts in Mckenizies list.

    If oilers pick 3rd, they need a D man like Hanifan more than they need a 2C like Strome ( already have Drai or a winger like Marner ( already have 3 good wingers and hopefully Yak can be that 4th)

  34. stush18 says:

    Question for LT , or anyone that can answer it.

    What is Bobby macs list based off of? Is it gms, or consensus scouts picks? And where LTs list comes from?

    Just wanted to know the reason for disparity between different players. Obviously there will be some variation and i know its early, but there are some major differences.

  35. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    PhrankLee,

    Boyd Gordon and the Pittsburgh pick won’t get you a top pairing D.

    Top pairing D will cost a lot more than that. It’ll be in the realm of a higher 1st (say Oilers’ 2016 first), Gordon and a primo prospect we don’t want to give up.

  36. Hammers says:

    So many armchair QB’s thinking who they should sign , resign , trade or just dump . Most of us would love to be able to make those decisions but in todays NHL the cap has to make you second guess . An example here last night is resign Lander 2 years at $2 mill , 2 at 800 K and the guy is a UFA who maybe at last has shown he belongs on a team full time ( That now means Any team ) . Then Gordon , trade , keep 1 more year or resign . Same goes for Yak and on it goes. Tough job , tough decisions starting with How Much for Goalies , 1st 2nd & 3rd pair “D” your 4 lines ,our 1st is $18 mill .Maybe the real key to a good team is deciding what your spending then fitting in the pieces .

  37. Bag of Pucks says:

    CockyHockey:
    I might be stating the obvious but we really should be debating the 3rd overall pick, at best, as I trust we all agree Buffalo is finishing 30th.

    If Oilers finish 29th, odds are 20% chance they get Eichel , 13.5% chance they get McJesus, and 66.5% chance they pick Hanafin/Strome.

    To me the real debate is big skilled C, or all-around D.Will be interesting.

    Thanks for confirming that. That’s how I understood it as well.

    I like Hanifan as our pick but based on his rankings today, anticipate LT making a strong push for Marner.

    With Drai and Yakimov, I think our C prospect depth is better than or D.

    Hanifan a perfect bookend for Nurse?

  38. Bag of Pucks says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    PhrankLee,

    Boyd Gordon and the Pittsburgh pick won’t get you a top pairing D.

    Top pairing D will cost a lot more than that. It’ll be in the realm of a higher 1st (say Oilers’ 2016 first), Gordon and a primo prospect we don’t want to give up.

    I bet you could pry Letang out of Pitt for Eberle plus their 1st back?

  39. Bruce McCurdy says:

    PhrankLee: Where does the trade him for a pick narrative come from? I think most would agree this is not the best idea. I want to offer him in a package for a top priority hole in the line up.

    Trading him for a prospect or pick is silly, agreed.

    If you’re trading Gordon now to a team who needs him for a playoff run, that team will Also need the target player to (continue to) fill a priority hole in Their line-up. Non-contenders trading to contenders during the season are almost invariably for futures & spare parts, such as the Perron trade.

    Trading after the season is the time to fill holes with actually-ready players. Of course by then Gordon’s value is lower because this year’s playoffs are over.

  40. JJ says:

    If Arizona manages to stay ahead of the Oilers, the Oilers will most likely finish 29th.

    Then when you factor in the lottery, there is only a 33% chance to pick 1st (13% EDM wins lottery) or 2nd (20% BUF wins lottery).

    That means 67% chance we would pick 3rd, not 2nd.

    That means good chance no Eichel, but probably Oilers choose between Hanifin, Strome, or Marner.

    Please not Crouse with that pick.

  41. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: If you’re trading Gordon now to a team who needs him for a playoff run, that team will Also need the target player to (continue to) fill a priority hole in Their line-up. Non-contenders trading to contenders during the season are almost invariably for futures & spare parts, such as the Perron trade.

    Trading after the season is the time to fill holes with actually-ready players. Of course by then Gordon’s value is lower because this year’s playoffs are over.

    If you’re building a playoff team for next year then by all means keep Gordon. Is that the plan?

  42. stush18 says:

    Not to brag but i had klef playing with schultz in my preseason lineups. I remember someone else also mentioning how he seems to be the only one with enough speed and size to cover for schultz. He just didnt seem ready at the start of the year. Hopefully i don’t jinx it!

    Or maybe i should jinx it?
    #changeitformcdavid?

  43. LMHF#1 says:

    Time for Nelson to throw a little weight around.

    He should demand it be Marincin.

  44. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    Question for LT , or anyone that can answer it.

    What is Bobby macs list based off of? Is it gms, or consensus scouts picks? And where LTs list comes from?

    Just wanted to know the reason for disparity between different players. Obviously there will be some variation and i know its early, but there are some major differences.

    My list is my own based on math and then a few things that sift down to me from the scouting world.

  45. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: If you’re building a playoff team for next year then by all means keep Gordon. Is that the plan?

    That should ALWAYS be the plan.

    We’ll flip the ‘win’ switch when we’re in the new barn is the height of hubris,

  46. oliveoilers says:

    So, should we trade Lander? His value has never been higher……

    Does anybody know if there were any other teams scout there last night? Seemed Petry was on with nearly every other Oilers D-man in all situations. Looked like showcasing…Trying to convince someone he’s worth a 5th rounder from a contender.

  47. verdad2.0 says:

    Can this blog not rally around the simple notion that the Oilers will never improve if it constantly trades actual NHL players for the mirage of draft picks and “prospects”?
    Experience tells us they rarely work out.
    What should be the Oilers focus is that if can’t draft first or second then it is selling that draft pick for an actual player. That was the appropriate strategy that should have been deployed over the past two seasons by MacTavish etal.
    At some point, winning now has to matter more than the phantom of believing that futures have present value. They do only at a great discount.
    Trading Gordon is a dumb as trading Perron was if the return is more “future”.

  48. Unicorns says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Serious question. If the team plays .500 hockey under Nelson for the remainder of the season, do you remove the interim tag without interviewing other candidates?

    For the sake of context, let’s assume Babcock has prettier dancing partners.

    Obviously you take Babcock, the only two other coaches I’d definitely take over Nelson are Quenneville or Boudreau. I don’t see McLellan or anyone else as clearly better. I am sure Nelson would be an assistant in that scenario if he is as smart as he seems, that’s not like being Eakins’ assistant, learn from the masters.

    There is only so much a coach can do at the highest level. X and O guys can be hired for that, it’s managing big and sometimes fragile egos and millionaire teenagers that I see as the hardest part, and Nelson seems to have a handle on getting buy in and creating a team atmosphere.

    I recently read somewhere that Laviolette asked the Flyers to commit to not drinking for a month by writing their name on a white board. I remember, it was about Richards’ recent waiving. I find it surprising that athletes at the top level have to be asked to do that, but I suppose there is a lot of stress and it’s a long season. Still, there are a lot of issues that go into getting top performance out of a group of 50 contracts and I’m sure that’s only the beginning.

    I think that was really Eakins big issue, the players ‘going through the wall’ for him didn’t seem to translate AHL to NHL, on top of the PDO. The tension wasn’t helping anybody turn a corner. There has to be a strong relationship and a lot of trust to get teams to play like the Wings do no matter the circumstances.

  49. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Bohologo: Is it fair to say that if the Oilers trade Boyd Gordon for a second round pick that one must also consider the newly freed cap space as part of the return?

    bsmart: The only way I trade Gordon is for a late first pick or an 30-40 range 2nd rndr.

    Ben: 2nd rd pick? Bye bye Boyd!

    PhrankLee: Where does the trade him for a pick narrative come from?

    I honestly have no idea where that narrative came from. I must have made it up out of whole cloth.

  50. Hammers says:

    Bag of Pucks:

    rickithebear(Quote) (Reply)

    Maybe its do I want an $5-7 mill coach or a $ 1-3 mill coach . Hell its only Katz money .

  51. Ben says:

    I’m assuming all of the “don’t trade Gordon” people have not at any point suggested that Perron and Petry should have been moved last summer when they had higher value and more term left…

    The Oilers are NOT making the playoffs next year. Accept it. Clear cap space. Get picks. Cash them in for longer-term players (who might actually be here for the mythical “good times”) from teams with less flexibility.

  52. PhrankLee says:

    Lowetide: If you’re building a playoff team for next year then by all means keep Gordon. Is that the plan?

    This is really my point. No way in hell we threaten to make top 8 in WC next year. We risk loosing the guy on a walk away with bitter memories of being promised the Oil would be competitive.

  53. slopitch says:

    If Nelson does 500 hockey from here on in that is so much better then Eakins results, you gotta renew him. IMO the only exception would be Babcock. 500 hockey puts them likely at 5th or 6th overall which could be outside Hanifan/Strome territory but still an 8.5% chance at Jesus. I say win – the top 5 in this draft are all better then Reinhart/Drai or Bennett. Its more important to develop Yak, Jutlz, Klefbom (maybe Lander) then to purge another season. Maybe Karma gets us a lottery win.

    Id trade Gordon for a 2nd. Use the money to upgrade the D. The key word there is upgrade – not NN. Speaking of, I think NN just played his last NHL game. That shoulder injury reminds me of when I tore my ACL in my shoulder. Took me 18 months to feel normal.

  54. oliveoilers says:

    Lowetide: If you’re building a playoff team for next year then by all means keep Gordon. Is that the plan?

    By that logic, if we’re not building a playoff team for next year, any player should be considered for trade.

    Trading Gordon isn’t addition by subtraction. It’s subtraction by idiocy. One of our few players that can be called an ‘asset’.

    I’m worried that Lander’s steady emergence has some thinking that we should cash in on Gordon now. Well, obvious as it seems, Lander isn’t Gordon. He may never be. He may be Lander, and that’s cool, too.

    I’m on board with a trade for a warm body that is useful. Picks and prospects can go eff themselves, unless it’s a player like Max Domi, which won’t happen.

    Can’t we keep him, dad, puhleeeeeeaaase?

  55. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: If you’re building a playoff team for next year then by all means keep Gordon. Is that the plan?

    If the option is a pick who might not be ready for 5 years if ever, then the plan is to keep Gordon. They need him next year, he’ll have value at next year’s deadline, and maybe he re-ups for another couple of years.

    If you can find a trade for a 21-year-old prospect with serious NHL potential, then I consider it.

  56. oliveoilers says:

    Ben:
    I’m assuming all of the “don’t trade Gordon” people have not at any point suggested that Perron and Petry should have been moved last summer when they had higher value and more term left…

    The Oilers are NOT making the playoffs next year.Accept it. Clear cap space. Get picks. Cash them in for longer-term players (who might actually be here for the mythical “good times”) from teams with less flexibility.

    No, they should NOT have been moved, as they are Actual NHL Players(tm). Once again, if you are a struggling team trying to get better, you do NOT trade the players that are actually any good for a hatful of sky.

    Unless you perversely enjoy sucking.

  57. PhrankLee says:

    Bruce McCurdy: I honestly have no idea where that narrative came from. I must have made it up out of whole cloth.

    I mean in terms of sensible offers. “Because Oilers” doesn’t cut it for me on this one.

    I’m loathe to loose him but that kind of money needs to be covered by system guys filling in the role while they develop. He held down a really hard job on an incredibly shitty team.

    Extend the guy and he sticks around long enough to watch himself become the villain and I would hate the Oilers if they did that to such a pro.

    Point is they have to consider it seriously. They pushed the cluster back at least a year with reliance on Leon and Marco. Boyd will be long in the tooth for a player of his description by mid next season. If not approaching it now. imo

  58. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: has to be a strong relationship and a lot of trust to get teams to play like the Wings do no matter the

    How can it be with what we need . I like you and others would entertain an offer for Gordon especially if it was a 2nd . 28% chance on a player 3-5 years from now when we may actually have a shot at a decent cup run . If we make playoffs next year McT is a magician .

  59. Bag of Pucks says:

    BOS Barry Pederson to VAN for 3rd OV & Cam Neely
    CAL Joe Nieuwendyk to DAL for Jarome Iginla and Corey Millen (who?)

    Re: Trading Boyd Gordon

    As the above deals hopefully illustrate, there are occasions when trading a proven vet for futures can work out remarkably well.

    Would suggest the efficacy of such a deal is hugely dependent on the cunning of the GM making it.

    Does anyone think MacT has the chops to ‘win’ a Boyd Gordon trade? Based on the Perron return, I don’t.

  60. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    As an armchair QB GM, I can say I absolutely consider cap space when I do this.
    Capgeek’s awesome tool is gone now so it’s harder to show my work, but obviously, for example you can’t get both a Seabrook and a Staal both in terms of assets and cap space.

    But perhaps you could get a Soderberg and a Hjalmarsson.

    You keep Gordon. He helps when this team turns north next season. And I think although his player type may be easy to find for MacT, the quality is very difficult to find.

    Again, recall Pahlsson’s value to the Championship Ducks team.
    Or how good Malholtra was pre-injury for the Canucks.

  61. Ben says:

    oliveoilers: No, they should NOT have been moved, as they are Actual NHL Players(tm).Once again, if you are a struggling team trying to get better, you do NOT trade the players that are actually any good for a hatful of sky.

    Unless you perversely enjoy sucking.

    Most agree that Perron for a real NHL centreman would have been a smart move at the draft last summer. Boat was missed – maybe due to injury, maybe due to lack of BOLDness.

    Whether Petry won’t resign here or hasn’t been given an offer is unknown. But trading him before signing him to a terminal 1 year UFA deal would have surely netted a better return than whatever they’re getting in the next few weeks.

    Waited to trade Hemsky, too – got a 5 and 3.

    If you don’t think you’re able to retain a vet like Gordon beyond his deal – or you don’t think he’ll be as helpful by the time you’re making a push – then FOR ONCE, get something of value for him in a trade.

    Or we’re sitting here at the same time next year wondering what we could have gotten for him when he was more than a playoff rental.

  62. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Ben:
    I’m assuming all of the “don’t trade Gordon” people have not at any point suggested that Perron and Petry should have been moved last summer when they had higher value and more term left…

    The Oilers are NOT making the playoffs next year.Accept it. Clear cap space. Get picks. Cash them in for longer-term players (who might actually be here for the mythical “good times”) from teams with less flexibility.

    You are wrong. I was in the trade Perron for Anisimov camp in the summer. I was in the sign Petry for a longer deal than one year camp, however.

    Clear the cap space by trading guys who aren’t earning their contracts, or buying them out.

    Nikitin, Ference, Purcell, Gazdic.

    Keep Gordon.

  63. dustrock says:

    LT, a draft day result of Eichel/Hanifin, Meier/J Roy, and Beauvillier would be incredible. But where are the coke machines?

    Someone – Woodguy? mentioned Zacha. He’s intriguing because he does seem to have the size/speed/shot combo that is so elusive. Is he Rick Nash? He’s been injured and suspended, so we don’t have a great sample size. I’ve read a pretty detailed analysis on Zacha and it seems like his zone awareness, both o-zone and d-zone, needs a bunch of work. It could be learning new systems, it could be Sarnia’s systems.

    The risk is that he has all the tools (which he seems to), but doesn’t have the toolbox.

  64. dustrock says:

    On Gordon, I’m a definite believer in selling high. We screwed that up with Hemsky, and now with Eberle.

    If you think the Oilers can compete in 1-2 years, then it would be foolish to trade him. If you think the Oilers are 3 years away from the playoffs, which I believe, then it makes sense to trade him now.

  65. Bruce McCurdy says:

    A specific trade I would consider is Gordon for Sobotka. That might be a deal that makes a lot of sense for both sides. Like Gordon, Sobotka has one year left at similar pay scale (an arbitrated $2.7 MM for 1 year), plays bottom 6 C, wins faceoffs, is hard as nails.

    But the problem for the Blues is Sobotka is not here now, whereas Gordon is in the NHL. With the news that Berglund is hurt the pressure might be on in St.Loo to add somebody who can help right away. At the same time it would offer them a way to resolve a problem. They’ve burned a bridge with Sobotka, could cash him for reasonable — and immediate — value in such a deal.

    Oilers would need to talk to Sobotka’s camp & be sure that he wants to come back, & maybe even drop some suggestions about the longer term. If he’s amenable, then Oilers need to consider he’s younger, a better scorer, and an aggressive s.o.b. He’s short at 5’10, but short like a tank (197). I’ve liked this player since he was in Boston & was disappointed Oilers had maybe missed a chance when the B’s moved him to the Blues. But if you’re talking about “next year” & not “5 years from now”, he’s a real interesting target.

  66. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    You approach Gordon with an extension offer. If he says no thanks, I’m leaving, well then you obviously have to consider what you can get for him.

    I think 40 games under Nelson if this thing continues to turn into a .500 team could help lift a lot of spirits and increase optimism for the future.

  67. Tapdog says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    I would say the Oilers sign Nelson, given he continues the way things are going.
    Simply cannot see the Oiler mgmt group being willing enough to give the amount of control to Babcock that he woulld want to come here. Your thoughts may vary?

  68. Ben says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Thing is, if teams are forced to sell off good players on big tickets (Seabrook? Hjrarlmajrljssssonn?), you still need low-to-zero-salary currency to make the deal work. The players you mentioned aren’t getting you much of that – if anything.

    This is a strong draft year and the cap is barely twitching.

    Get picks, make space, cash them in.

    If the team was closer to contending – or even closer to finishing in the top two thirds of the league – I’d feel differently.

    This team is NOWHERE close. Another year of The Bod isn’t really going to change that.

  69. Bruce McCurdy says:

    dustrock:
    On Gordon, I’m a definite believer in selling high.We screwed that up with Hemsky, and now with Eberle.

    If you think the Oilers can compete in 1-2 years, then it would be foolish to trade him.If you think the Oilers are 3 years away from the playoffs, which I believe, then it makes sense to trade him now.

    Let’s buffer the kids with a couple of quality vets, but then trade away those vets for magic beans. That’s part of the reason Oilers have been “3 years away from the playoffs” for about 8 years.

  70. PhrankLee says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: I think 40 games under Nelson if this thing continues to turn into a .500 team could help lift a lot of spirits and increase optimism for the future.

    I’m with you on this. Not a lot of recent history of teambuilding but if Boyd Gordon is the seed crystal for success I vote to keep him, despite my previous statements.

    Hell if he can bring this team together in the last year of his contract I give him a raise and don’t even care if he smokes on the bench during games.

  71. Dicky94 says:

    I hope the Oilers keep Gordon. He is the type of player you need to make a serious playoff run. The one player we should cash in on is Hendricks. I really like him but I think his trade value is pretty high right now. If Petry or Ferrence end up going to LA I would be trying to pry Clifford out of there in the deal. He could replace Hendricks. Lander , Fraser and Clifford would make a nice third line. Gordon , Klinkhammer and Pitlick on 4th line for next year.

  72. misfit says:

    From draft day, I’ve had Lander as our “some day” Sammy Pahlsson. Lander is probably just now becoming a full-time NHL player. Some will no doubt point to him spending his first season in NA with the Oilers as a backwards step in his development, and that’s probably fair. Pahlsson split his 22 year old season between the Bruins and Ducks, and was the Duck’s full time 4C at 23, the age Lander is now. He was a key member of the ’07 cup winning team and the Moen-Pahlsson-Neidermayer line was arguably the best shut-down line in the NHL at that time. He was 28 when they won it all, but he had been quality for years.

    I still like the comparison, and hope that when Gordon’s contract is up, Lander will be ready to step into his role. But as for trading Gordon at the deadline and handing Lander the reigns this year? Please, no. Things look good now, but it’s been 12 games. He’s been >50% on the draw this year for the first time at the NHL level. It would be heaven if he were to continue on that upward trend in that area. Playing and practicing with Gordon for the next 1.5 seasons could really be instrumental in that development, and more valuable than the 3rd round pick we’d get for Gordon at the deadline.

    For the record, I’d probably lean towards re-signing Gordon if I thought we’d be able to get him on a 1 or 2 year deal. He’ll be 32 (not old) and probably want another 3 years, but it’s the 34+ seasons that scare me. Pahlsson, Madden, Malhotra, Lehtinen (not a C, I know), Peca, and players of that ilk are all usually out of the league at 33/34. Those who aren’t named Rod Brind’Amour or out of the NHL by then are often shell’s of their former selves and no longer in the role that they built their reputations playing. The sweet-spot for the shut-down guys are the same as every other player in the league (27-31). Gordon certainly isn’t done, but I would be wary of an extension that takes him past 34.

  73. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Ben,

    This summer is huge for the Oilers. It could be a game-changer. Seriously.

    Buy out Nikitin, you save $3M in cap space.
    Ask Ference to waive his NMC at the deadline, trade him for a pick or prospect, clear $3.25M in cap space.
    Trade Purcell for someone making $1.5M or less. If not, buy him out, save $3M in cap space.
    Trade Gazdic for a 6th rounder or bury his contract in the minors.

    That’s roughly $10M in cap space created.

    The cap stays flat and a half dozen teams are going to be needing to dump players. The Oilers can cash in and turn this team around really quickly, potentially.

    It’s all very possible and I think with the right/smart moves, the Oilers can be top 8 next year. Seriously. And I’ve been consistently one of the most pessimistic posters here about the Oilers’ chances the last few years. I didn’t think they had a hope of sniffing the playoffs this year or last.

    And I reserve my judgment until I see the final roster, but good players are going to shake loose this summer in the name of cap space. The Oilers need to get their asses in gear clearing the space to do it.

    But if Gordon were on another team, we’d be talking about him as a potential target for this type of trade. Buying low on an overpaid but quality asset.

    If St Louis wants to offer Sobotka for Boyd, I agree with a trade. But Blues are pressed for cap space as well. Not sure it happens.

  74. Ben says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Ok, but those “magic beans” have recently been traded for such real-live NHL players as Cory Schneider and Semyon Varlamov.

    A strong #1 goalie signed long-term would be pretty darn “buffery” for this group, no?

  75. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    stush18: What is Bobby macs list based off of? Is it gms, or consensus scouts picks? And where LTs list comes from?

    This is always his basic line:

    “a compilation based on input from various scouts around the National Hockey League.”

    http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=9420

    or, similarly:

    “TSN’s annual survey of NHL scouts asks them which players will be taken in the first round and at which position. The final rankings are based on a consensus of opinion and do not take into account the NHL teams’ order of selection or specific teams needs.”

    http://www2.tsn.ca/draftcentre/feature/?id=47549

    Sometimes he’ll list a number, like “I asked 10 scouts”… sometimes not.

    And, by “consensus” he NEVER means that an independent group had a weekend retreat, argued, listened, etc. and came to a consensus.

    He means that he’s taken all the individual lists given him by these scouts and averaged them.

    We also don’t know if “NHL scouts” means people that scout for NHL teams or simply people that scout for future NHL players, ie., from independent sources like McKeens.

  76. Zack says:

    McDavid. Hockey Jesus in every sense. For us younger generations you hear about how people talked about Gretzky on the ice and I know McDavid will never be a Gretzky or even Crosby perhaps but watching him play in that current age group, wow.

    Not sure who will be called up for D but I have a feeling there will be another call coming within the next few weeks when Petry leaves.

    It’s nice to see Lander and Klef starting to thrive but on the other hand if the Oilers were to tank in any of these last ten years, this would be the year.

    Hate watching this team consistently play poor but dishonour for Connor all the way.

  77. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Let’s buffer the kids with a couple of quality vets, but then trade away those vets for magic beans. That’s part of the reason Oilers have been “3 years away from the playoffs” for about 8 years.

    Oilers already started that car with the Perron trade. They’re still rebuilding. You can’t be a little bit pregnant.

  78. sumaclab says:

    Eichel to Florida for Eckblad. The most interesting deal to be made is the Kessel deal this summer.How good would he be with McDavid in Buffalo? With those extra picks and Sam Rheinhart as pieces in a trade it might be doable. either way the leafs are cooked and will be blowing salary and Nonis out the door this summer.

    Arizona refuses to lose lately. They better get trading if they hope to fall enough to to get Eichel.

    Boyd Gordon does what other than win faceoffs? If its me he is out the door. MH is the guy I keep along with Klinkhammer

  79. Lucinius says:

    The problems with trading Gordon are simple, and I am astounded people are pro-trading Gordon. Absolutely astounded.

    If you can trade Gordon for a late second round pick or better I would be stunned. I don’t see you getting better than a third and a low end prospect for Gordon, despite the year left on his contract. Just isn’t going to happen in this draft, imo.

    Secondly, you have to look at what you can possibly replace Gordon with in the off-season, because playoff push or not, you need a center like Gordon on the team. I don’t believe there are any UFAs this off-season that are as good as Gordon; never mind actually getting them to sign here when the Oilers have continued to suck eggs.

    Lander is not good enough to replace Gordon next season, and I say this as a big Lander fan. Lander needs to be the 4th line center or a winger on Gordon’s line at the most next season.

    Gordon is a big reason why the Edmonton Oilers aren’t making Buffalo look like a good team, because he can take that defensive zone duty and perform miracles. Yes, he’ll be a year older next season, but it is unlikely he sees a massive drop off from one season to the next; most likely he will be a bit worse next year (but who knows, maybe a full year of Hendricks and someone like Klinkhammer/Lander will lead to an improvement, instead of the third wheel that those two were stuck with at times this year).

    As for trading Petry/Perron?

    I was only pro trading either one if it resulted in a better player coming back (obviously they would have to have been bundled with something), or in Perron’s case, a center of similar quality coming back, as the Oilers are, and have been, short on centers for years, but flush with skill wingers.

    I didn’t like the Perron trade, but I believe it was necessary given there was no way he was coming back and Pittsburgh had a need they were going to fill somewhere. The up-coming Petry trade will be the height of stupidity because there is no way the Oilers come even close to break-even on that trade. But then, trading your best d-man because management is being idiotic is very Oilers and nothing has apparently changed in that regard (hell, we have an entire season+ of MacT and Eakins screwing the pooch on the roster to quantify that as fact).

    Do not trade Gordon unless you are able to get a first rounder or a high end prospect+ for him and have a clear, sane plan to replace him. Do not trade Petry unless you make him the biggest offer you are willing to make and he turns it down.

    The Oilers suck. They suck because they do not have enough good players (and the Hockey Gods hate our goalies post-Rolly). It isn’t about making the playoffs next year (though as Calgary has shown.. you never know), it is about making the team better and pushing up the standings to you can continue to improve by becoming a location players won’t laugh at the prospect of signing with.

  80. sumaclab says:

    What will it cost to get Martin Jones out of LA? Or Lehner?

  81. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Lowetide,

    Tea leaves seem to indicate Perron asked out, no?

    If Petry also goes this gets harder, but I think my plan could work. This is the last top 5 pick for a while, in my opinion, if this summer gets done right.

    I mean, you add a Hanifin or Eichel to this mix of prospects the pipeline is beautiful. Then you trade some futures for a strong C, a D, etc., that shakes loose because of the cap space or a moment of stupidity (like say San Jose sending away Thornton).

    The Oilers can stand to benefit, but they need to clear the $10M in cap space to do it. Ference, Nikitin, Gazdic, Purcell. That is where you create the space.

    That Pens’ 1st can be used as part of the package to get someone quality as well.

    2015 Pens’ 1st and 2016 Oilers’ 1st for Brent Seabrook? Is that an overpay? Maybe. I admit I am just throwing Seabrook’s name out there and I haven’t looked at his advanced stats this morning (I’m at work and already posting here way too much). But this type of template for trades, if you get my drift.

  82. Bag of Pucks says:

    Tapdog:
    Bag of Pucks,

    I would say the Oilers sign Nelson, given he continues the waythings are going.
    Simply cannot see the Oiler mgmt group being willing enough to give the amount of control to Babcock that he woulld want to come here. Your thoughts may vary?

    Agree.

    Btw, Think my original post on this subject is being misinterpreted. Don’t think there’s anyway in hell Babcock comes here. Suspect strongly he’ll reup with Detroit.

  83. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    sumaclab:
    Eichel to Florida for Eckblad. The most interesting deal to be made is the Kessel deal this summer.How good would he be with McDavid in Buffalo? With those extra picks and Sam Rheinhart as pieces in a trade it might be doable. either way the leafs are cooked and will be blowing salary and Nonis out the door this summer.

    Arizona refuses to lose lately. They better get trading if they hope to fall enough to to get Eichel.

    Boyd Gordon does what other than win faceoffs? If its me he is out the door. MH is the guy I keep along with Klinkhammer

    This shows you haven’t looked at Florida’s needs. They are stacked at C with Barkov, Bjugstad, maybe even Huberdeau, who is playing wing.

    They lack high end D prospects other than Ekblad. Ekblad has been better than advertised. They aren’t trading him for Jack Eichel, a centre.

    If the Oilers want Ekblad, they should just draft Hanifin.

  84. McSorley33 says:

    Edmonton is about to finish near the bottom of the NHL, again.

    I like Boyd Gordon as much as anyone – but he will be 32 next year and we are not coming close to winning a cup next year.

    For once, let the Oilers get a decent return on an asset.

    32 next year…..32.

  85. dustrock says:

    What if Todd McLellan becomes available? I’m not convinced it’s necessarily “Nelson or Babcock”.

    Nelson is an improvement on Eakins, but how much of an improvement?

  86. Pouzar says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:

    But perhaps you could get a Soderberg and a Hjalmarsson.

    Barring that kind of coup this current rebuild is doomed. By the time Nurse/Hanifin are good Eberle will be long gone, Hall will be gone and they will be pleading with Nuge to re-sign.

  87. bsmart says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I would also go for that deal, as you said providing Sobotka camp willing to return and sign an extension.

    I like Gordon but he is also on the career downturn at his present age, how many players improve at this point, usually its a a gradual or rapid decline.

  88. Dee Dee says:

    Looking at players salaries and comparing them to points scored, I have deduced that the team needs more Landers, Yaks, Frasers, Roys, and Arcobellos…

    Player $ per Point
    Gazdic, Luke 750000
    Pitlick, Tyler 725000
    Gordon, Boyd 300000
    Pouliot, Benoit 250000
    Purcell, Teddy 214286
    Hall, Taylor 206897
    Eberle, Jordan 206897
    Nuge, Ryan 206897
    Hendricks, Matt 154167
    Perron, David 151786
    Klinkhammer 92857
    Lander, Anton 85714
    Yakupov, Nail 77083
    Fraser, Matt 62500
    Roy, Derek 55556
    Arcobello, Mark 42857

  89. Dicky94 says:

    McSorley33,

    I’m turning 40 next month. 40! I was going to have a big party, but now I might just sell my house and move into a Care Home. Had no idea 32 was old now. Lol.

  90. bsmart says:

    Lowetide: Oilers already started that car with the Perron trade. They’re still rebuilding. You can’t be a little bit pregnant.

    LMFAO

  91. McSorley33 says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    With Drai and Yakimov, I think our C prospect depth is better than or D.
    Hanifan a perfect bookend for Nurse?

    ******************************************************
    Thank you….some people don’t even want to draft *any* d-men with our top 3 picks.

    Andrew Ference turns 36 in a few weeks.

    Petry is a pending UFA .

    NN gets paid to play for the Oilers.

  92. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Ben:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Ok, but those “magic beans” have recently been traded for such real-live NHL players as Cory Schneider and Semyon Varlamov.

    A strong #1 goalie signed long-term would be pretty darn “buffery” for this group, no?

    Not by the Oilers, they haven’t. And those beans were considerably bigger and sproutier than the ones I’m talking about above. Both went for first rounders in the range of #10 overall, plus another bean in the case of Varly.

    If you can trade Gordon for a top ten pick & then trade that pick for Ben Bishop, I’m all ears.

  93. Bruce McCurdy says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Ben,

    If St Louis wants to offer Sobotka for Boyd, I agree with a trade. But Blues are pressed for cap space as well. Not sure it happens.

    That’s a good point, I’d meant to look that up before publishing my comment but forgot. Such a trade has to fit within STL’s current cap situation, where Sobotka’s cap hit is of course $0.

  94. Pouzar says:

    NYC,

    btw, Soderberg and a Hjalmarsson would be one epic haul. Sweet Jezzuz that would be unreal.

  95. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Pouzar:
    NYC,

    btw, Soderberg and a Hjalmarsson would be one epic haul. Sweet Jezzuz that would be unreal.

    Yes, and it’s not at all out of the realm of possibility with a flat cap and what Boston and Chicago have done to themselves assuming a $5M bump.

    Those Kane and Toews contracts are crippling.

    Edit- Big IF: The Oilers need to begin clearing the cap space to make those trades happen.

    I don’t want that to come at the expense of trading Gordon away for cap space. I think Gordon helps you win and is reasonable value for his slight overpay contract.

    The anti-core four: Ference, Gazdic, Nikitin, Purcell. Those are the four you use to clear the space.

  96. Ben says:

    Maloney apparently saying that OEL (specifically) is not untouchable.

    He’s a smart guy. I’m guessing OEL is the out-of-stock loss-leader that gets you in the Yandle store.

  97. Pouzar says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Yes, and it’s not at all out of the realm of possibility with a flat cap and what Boston and Chicago have done to themselves assuming a $5M bump.

    Those Kane and Toews contracts are crippling.

    Are they UFAs?

  98. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: Oilers already started that car with the Perron trade. They’re still rebuilding. You can’t be a little bit pregnant.

    Yes, but a rebuild doesn’t mean you get rid of Every useful veteran, even as some may be casualties along the way.

    I hate the Perron trade less than some (most?) in large part because they got an Actual NHLer as part of the return. When I originally heard “Perron for a pick” I was less than impressed, but was considerably mollified to learn that a useful player was coming the other way. Klinkhammer is no world beater but he can play, and to my eye he has helped the team. I think he’ll get re-signed, and for a lot less than Perron’s tab so there will be significant cap space gained there, close to $3 MM.

    For what it’s worth, with the draft pick not even part of the equation as yet, since the trade the Oilers have gone 5-5-0, the Penguins 3-4-3. Perron has nice boxcars but is -5 (there’s that stat again) meaning that even playing with Sid he hasn’t been an outscorer to this early point. In fact he’s now -22 on the season, as he was bleeding goals here before the trade. I don’t hate the player, he’s got some nice attributes, but he’s got his warts too. And he’s a winger, where at least the Oilers have options. Replacing Gordon or (shudder) Petry will be more problematic.

  99. Bruce McCurdy says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: That Pens’ 1st can be used as part of the package to get someone quality as well.

    Also, this. A first rounder has a lot more cachet as a trading chip than the 2nd, 3rd or lower that has been bandied about as a possible Gordon return. I honestly don’t expect Oilers to have that pick on draft day.

  100. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Pouzar,

    Hjalmarsson has 4 years remaining at $4.1MM per.
    Chicago is going to have to do several of : let Oduya go (very likely), trade Hossa (very unlikely due to recapture penalty risk), trade Sharp (likely), trade Seabrook (very unlikely due to being top pairing with Keith), trade Hjalmarsson (maybe for the right price)

    Soderberg is a UFA. And his current contract only has an absurd cap hit of $1.033M. He’s going to fetch triple that and Boston can’t afford him. 🙂

  101. TheOtherJohn says:

    Anton Lander has a nice couple of games. Before we prepare his HHOF application lets see him sustain it for the balance of the season. Ditto giving Stu McGregor the employee of the month plaque for having Anton Lander score 3 goals and 15 points in 105 games.

    As to Cullen’s 28% probabiilty of a 2nd round picks playing 100 games, the Oilers typically select early in the draft so the probability would be higher than 28%

    Boyd Gordon is absolutely superb at what he does.Superb I would not trade him but have complete confidence in this management group that they are stupid enough to do so. Abomination is too kind a word. Now if I was stupid enough to trade him, and I am not, I would be looking for someone’s draft +2 or draft+3 or, heaven forbid, draft+4 prospect that is excelling at the AHL.Which is what Vancouver just did with Clendenning. That would mean someone like Detroits Ryan Sproul, Chicago’s Mark McNeill, one of Pittsburgh’s good young AHL D. Love Buffalo’s Mark Pysk too but Buffalo has no need for B Gordon right now. Well unless McDavid is the 2nd coming of Larry Bird(Bird took a terrible Celtics team from lottery to playoffs in draft+1)

    Hopefully we avoid a center piece around someones failed 1st round picks: see Colten Tuebert or, worse a 2nd rounder that will be ready in 4-5 years

  102. Unicorns says:

    You have to ask the right question with a player in Gordon’s situation. Whether or not he is a good helpful player isn’t the question.

    The question is whether Gordon will be on the team after next season, and if not is what he brings for one more year (having a viable player for that role in Lander who is playing similar minutes) worth more than what he can bring at his current peak value?

    A good team moves the player if the value is high enough because in the long run it brings more to the team. It’s not like a viable Cup run is at stake and they should not lose Petry and Gordon for peanuts and expect a good outcome – this is repeating the past.

  103. Bag of Pucks says:

    LT, what are your thoughts on Barrie Colts’ G Mackenzie Blackwood?

    I’ve been banging the drum for a while that the 2nd round is the optimal round to pick potential elite goaltenders.

    Mackenzie has him at #36 so landing the top ranked G in the draft with that # 32 pick seems reasonable value?

    Outside Brossoit, this is an area of the pipeline that certainly lacks legitimate prospects.

  104. Bling says:

    Great to see Lander having success. I’ve been very impressed with him since he got the call in all zones, nice to see him getting rewarded.

    There was a debate on Matt Fraser recently that I read about but didn’t chime in on.

    This guy is an NHLer.

    I think his skating deficiencies are wildly overstated. He gets in on the forecheck just fine. Blistering shot, but I’ve been surprised by his passing ability the most.

    Nice little find for the org.

  105. leadfarmer says:

    Boyd Gordon is winning 56% of his faceoffs. He is on pace for 10 goals on the year with OZ starts in the teens while ice skating uphill both ways in the middle of a blizzard and is a -2 for the year and we are talking about trading him !!.

    We need more Boyd Gordon’s not less. I could only imagine what would be said about our young guns if they had to pick those zone starts.

  106. SkatinginSand says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Bruce,
    If you are trading for futures, is it not possible to get a strong potential but not ready for prime time prospect rather than picks, or is a Robert Neilson, Ryan O’Mara, Colton Tuebert, Patty O ‘Lanterns return the best you can get with this strategy?

  107. Numenius says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    re: the Perron trade, I sometimes wonder if when McT did his evaluation of the room/team after Eakins left that he figured Perron was more part of the problem than the solution. It is interesting that Perron left not long after McT went back upstairs.

  108. dannyboy says:

    We need more centers not less. Unless we dont plan on being competitive next season. If we don’t plan on being competitive then finish last no matter what. IR hall and ebs.
    Whatever it takes. If we pick 3rd that player cant play in the NHL next year.
    Drai will need seasoning in the AHL (of course he will see the same ozone push he saw this year) Nurse absolutely needs to dominate the AHL before coming to the pros…he will be in our top 4 on opening night. We cannot rush prospects and blame scouting.

    Thats the kind of oilers fan i am. Sadly i have 1 playoff experience in my adult years. I have childhood memories of watching edm dallas first round exits. Marchant breakaway goal in OT…sadly tho as an adult Its been about the draft pick…

    The problem isnt drafting its piss poor development. Starting with ganger. Throw these kids to the wolves. Then at 23 24 reset with a new prospect. Mceichel sheltered on the wing with a veteran center is allowable next year. considering the talent possesed.
    Trade for richards IF LA keeps salary. I think hes a good fit on a cheaper contract. We can buy him out down the road. He won 2 cups in recent years. Is only 29. And plays on a deep kings roster. Looks how roys helped yak…we need veteran leadership for our younger players
    Sign roy for cheap.
    Extend lander
    Nuge richards gordon roy lander thats not bad

    Move a center to the wing if you have to, better than a winger asked to play center.

    If we pick outside the top 2 im worried. We dont have the assets to fill all the holes for next year.with that top 2 pick we could move assets…

    Imagine we picked Stamkos Tavares Hall vs Hall Nuge Yak *sighs*

  109. supernova says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    A specific trade I would consider is Gordon for Sobotka. That might be a deal that makes a lot of sense for both sides. Like Gordon, Sobotka has one year left at similar pay scale (an arbitrated $2.7 MM for 1 year), plays bottom 6 C, wins faceoffs, is hard as nails.

    But the problem for the Blues is Sobotka is not here now, whereas Gordon is in the NHL. With the news that Berglund is hurt the pressure might be on in St.Loo to add somebody who can help right away. At the same time it would offer them a way to resolve a problem. They’ve burned a bridge with Sobotka, could cash him for reasonable — and immediate — value in such a deal.

    Oilers would need to talk to Sobotka’s camp & be sure that he wants to come back, & maybe even drop some suggestions about the longer term. If he’s amenable, then Oilers need to consider he’s younger, a better scorer, and an aggressive s.o.b. He’s short at 5’10, but short like a tank (197). I’ve liked this player since he was in Boston & was disappointed Oilers had maybe missed a chance when the B’s moved him to the Blues. But if you’re talking about “next year” & not “5 years from now”, he’s a real interesting target.

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I would also do this trade.

    Although St. Louis might have to include a little kicker just to make it work because of Sobotka’s defection.

    good trade though

  110. speeds says:

    Caramel Obvious:
    If a second round pick only has a 28% chance of playing 100 games in the NHL then you should never trade an NHL player who will play for you in the following season for a second round pick.Never.

    One year of Boyd Gordon is infinitely more valuable than a 28% chance at Anton Lander.

    Teams that are selling their players sell way too low in my opinion.Boyd Gordon is easily worth a first round pick.Hell, he’s worth more than a first round pick.

    If I’m running an NHL team I don’t trade for late round picks unless it’s guys like Nick Schultz that I’d rather not have anyway.

    I think that analysis isn’t complicated enough. A season of Gordon next year vs. potentially 7 yrs of GP from a prospect from 2017-24 holds different value to different teams, and you also can’t ignore that moving Gordon now would leave 3M to replace him (although it’s a fair point, IMO, to note that this year’s UFA class doesn’t have a ton of Gordon types, it’s also true that the money represents some sort of opportunity to replace him/improve in other areas if they can’t find a replacement).

    I don’t think I’d start with moving Gordon either, there are a few players I’d move prior if they are able to be moved without the degree of impact on EDM’s playoff chances next year. At the same time, it’s also possible that Gordon won’t re-sign at a number or term you like anyways, and if you can get a better pick now and don’t think you make the playoffs next year anyhow, well, you get a better pick and a year ahead in the development cycle than if you wait a year.

  111. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Month-end short squeeze under way in crude. Surged 8% today. A number of shorts had been set up at $46 and these just got stopped out. Canadian dollar in the super-near term may have peaked at 1.28 today as well. Not quite the financial crisis levels of 1.30, but there’s still time. But for now, could see this reverse, in my opinion.

    Heh, and that’s your trading update

  112. VanOil says:

    If the plan is to win next year and we have seen plenty of evidence to the contrary, I recommend;

    Sing Petry to a 5 year extension

    Sign Gordon to a 2 year extension

    Sign Lander, Yak and Marincin to show me deals for one or two years

    Trade Purcell (retaining 1.5M) to the Jets for a pick or a D prospect

    Then simply find a Goalie, 2nd line Center and a Defender to be the man they thought Double Agent would be. Oh shit, they aren’t going to win next year either. Bring on the all time out of playoffs futility record!

  113. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    VanOil:
    If the plan is to win next year and we have seen plenty of evidence to the contrary, I recommend;

    Sing Petry to a 5 year extension

    Sign Gordon to a 2 year extension

    Sign Lander, Yak and Marincin to show me deals for one or two years

    Trade Purcell (retaining 1.5M) to the Jets for a pick or a D prospect

    Then simply find a Goalie, 2nd line Center and a Defender to be the man they thought Double Agent would be. Oh shit, they aren’t going to win next year either. Bring on the all time out of playoffs futility record!

    Hey, I like the cut of your jib! See my comments above?
    And then add Soderberg and Hjalmarsson (or something like that) please. Trade Ference, buy out Nikitin, and your 1.5m retained for Purcell is spot on, since that’s his buy out cap hit.

  114. book¡je says:

    VanOil:

    Sing Petry to a 5 year extension

    Hey Jeff, don’t make it bad. ♪ Take a sad team and make it better.

    Something like that?

  115. VanOil says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL":
    Month-end short squeeze under way in crude. Surged 8% today. A number of shorts had been set up at $46 and these just got stopped out. Canadian dollar in the super-near term may have peaked at 1.28 today as well. Not quite the financial crisis levels of 1.30, but there’s still time. But for now, could see this reverse, in my opinion.

    Heh, and that’s your trading update

    Appreciated, facing decisions investing time and money back in Oiley Northern Alberta.

  116. russ99 says:

    If we need cap room, let’s find a sucker, ahem taker for Purcell, even if we need to eat a little salary to get him off the books.

  117. VanOil says:

    book¡je: ♫ Hey Jeff, don’t make it bad. ♪ Take a sad team and make it better.

    Something like that?

    Perfect

  118. VanOil says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Hey, I like the cut of your jib! See my comments above?
    And then add Soderberg and Hjalmarsson (or something like that) please. Trade Ference, buy out Nikitin, and your 1.5m retained for Purcell is spot on, since that’s his buy out cap hit.

    I love the idea of Hjalmarsson. Like his ability, age and contract.

    Marincin-Petry
    Hjalmarsson-Fayne
    Klefbom-Schultz

    Almost and NHL defense with Nurse and Hanifin marinating for a few years

  119. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    russ99:
    If we need cap room, let’s find a sucker, ahem taker for Purcell, even if we need to eat a little salary to get him off the books.

    Exactly. A buy out costs $1.5M in terms of cap hit. So anything where the net salary coming back is $1.5M or less. Done. If that means Purcell for a 3rd rounder, $1.5MM retained, then the Oilers should do it.

  120. frjohnk says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Hey, I like the cut of your jib! See my comments above?
    And then add Soderberg and Hjalmarsson (or something like that) please. Trade Ference, buy out Nikitin, and your 1.5m retained for Purcell is spot on, since that’s his buy out cap hit.

    If Ference was a UFA after this year I could see someone picking him up. But he has two more years on that contract.

    I think he is a mini mike Richards type of contract.

    Anybody think if he was waiver eligible and put on waivers, would a team pick him up?

    Especially factoring in a salary cap that will not increase much next year, I think he would clear.

  121. AZOIL says:

    Lowetide: Oilers already started that car with the Perron trade. They’re still rebuilding. You can’t be a little bit pregnant.

    Yes but with Perron we had an excess, we had Poulliot, Purcell, Yak, and Perron all fighting for top 6 wing action and so we got rid of Perron who likely made it know he was not going to stay here anyway. Plus this gives us more of a chance to get Yak some more at bats which has directly corresponded to Perron leaving.

    With Gordon we are not dealing from a position of strength, and so it is crazy to trade him. I hate the narrative that if we are looking at the playoffs next year or in 3, it shouldn’t matter. How do you get closer to the playoffs in three years if you don’t try for them next year, and each year tweak a thing or two. We should be battling to be in the hunt next year no matter what. If all you say the problem with Eakins was some bad luck in goal tending and a crappy D then fix those two things and we are instantly a 500 team next year. Look at Dallas, they made some moves to make their team instantly better, sure they are likely going to barely get in or barely miss, but from there they tweak and progress. We as Edmonton Oilers are so eager to get picks, I am sick of picks and future this and that.

    Trade every pick in 2016 to get this roster to even resemble an NHL team and we are there. Our 2016 first rounder will be worthwhile since nobody including me thinks we can figure out how to win. Will that get you Thornton out of SJS? Or will that get you a sniff at a 1D from a cash strapped team?

    We are thin at C and that is an understatement, keeping Gordon is smart and trading him is asinine unless another GM is stupid and overpays or he is part of a package that gets a legit 1D, in which case anyone is trade-able of Gordon’s caliber.

  122. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    frjohnk,

    I agree with you in some respects, certainly.

    However, veteran defensemen with Cup-winning experience and leadership intangibles still command some interest. Let’s say the Oilers retained $750K of his salary. $2.5MM cap hit isn’t too much for a team like Nashville, with the cap room, but lacking playoff experience on their team, to bear. A 3rd rounder could be the return.

    Put it this way, Ference has rebounded this year from last year. And he might waive his NMC if he gets to go to a playoff team. I think Ference still has a bit more value than Richards. Richards has a $5.75M cap hit and 5 years left after this. Ference’s boat anchor, by comparison, is much smaller.

  123. Lowetide says:

    AZOIL: Yes but with Perron we had an excess, we had Poulliot, Purcell, Yak, and Perron all fighting for top 6 wing action and so we got rid of Perron who likely made it know he was not going to stay here anyway. Plus this gives us more of a chance to get Yak some more at bats which has directly corresponded to Perron leaving.

    If you’re spending another year on developing Yakupov, then you’re not doing everything you can to make the playoffs. Craig MacTavish is still in rebuild mode and the Perron trade is a good example. He traded his third best winger. WHY would he do that if 2015-16 season was the priority?

    The only reasonable answer is ‘because the pick will allow him to add a veteran in summer’ and that may well be. I think trading Boyd Gordon is unwise if the 2015-16 season matters.

    I’m not convinced the Oilers believe it does.

  124. godot10 says:

    1) It is nuts to trade Gordon. Gordon provides the extra year of centre insurance to not have to overload Lander or Draisaitl next year.

    2) St. Louis needs Petry more than Gordon. Stastny, Backes, Lehtera, Goc, and Steen and Oshie and Ott can play centre too. Petry is better than Chris Butler. If you are on a Stanley Cup quest….The rights to Sobotka plus a conditional 3rd for Petry. (BUT the Oilers re-signing Petry to 5 x $5.5 million would be the better option).

    3) Re-sign Roy for 1-year $2 millioin

    3) Nugent-Hopkins, Sobotka, Gordon, Roy, Lander, Draisaitl(AHL) (TWO years out, Nugent-Hopkins, Sobotka, Draisaitl, Lander, Yakimov)

    4) #JustSayNoah The Oilers can go a PPG for the rest of the year and likely will still finish 29th, and have a 67% chance of picking 3rd. Plus if they finish 28th, anybody they pass would probably be more interested in Strome of Marner.

  125. Unicorns says:

    speeds: I think that analysis isn’t complicated enough.A season of Gordon next year vs. potentially 7 yrs of GP from a prospect from 2017-24 holds different value to different teams, and you also can’t ignore that moving Gordon now would leave 3M to replace him (although it’s a fair point, IMO, to note that this year’s UFA class doesn’t have a ton of Gordon types, it’s also true that the money represents some sort of opportunity to replace him/improve in other areas if they can’t find a replacement).

    I don’t think I’d start with moving Gordon either, there are a few players I’d move prior if they are able to be moved without the degree of impact on EDM’s playoff chances next year.At the same time, it’s also possible that Gordon won’t re-sign at a number or term you like anyways, and if you can get a better pick now and don’t think you make the playoffs next year anyhow, well, you get a better pick and a year ahead in the development cycle than if you wait a year.

    Well put. UFA is a bad situation for teams, that’s why they didn’t use to have it back when the man ran the show. It’s for the players benefit.

    The end goal is to make the best of a bad situation, taking into account short and long term goals. ‘IF’ the market replaced UFA’s for money it would be far less of an issue, but that is an academic argument that doesn’t play out in the NHL.

    The goal of a good team should be to at least maintain ‘strength’. If there is a legit shot at a deep playoff run I think an argument can be made to accept losing an asset to preserve that opportunity – they are hard to come buy.

    Losing an asset that was under full control (full value) outright or for less than full value (because less than full control) makes the team weaker. The balloon gets a hole punched and it shrinks.

    To further the balloon analogy, the draft is like blowing air in. If UFA’s and trades are managed well and nobody gets career ending injuries, no holes are made and the balloon gets bigger.

  126. Showerhead says:

    Lowetide: If you’re spending another year on developing Yakupov, then you’re not doing everything you can to make the playoffs. Craig MacTavish is still in rebuild mode and the Perron trade is a good example. He traded his third best winger. WHY would he do that if 2015-16 season was the priority?

    The only reasonable answer is ‘because the pick will allow him to add a veteran in summer’ and that may well be. I think trading Boyd Gordon is unwise if the 2015-16 season matters.

    I’m not convinced the Oilers believe it does.

    Your logic holds true, which is sad.

    A big question could be: If 2015-16 doesn’t matter to Edmonton but some future year DOES matter, what is the best way to act?

    The right answer, in my mind, is still to keep the Perrons, Gordons, and Petrys of the world even if you’re tanking. Sure, they’d be sacrificial lambs, but their existence would create such a better world to bring up the next generation – Draisaitl, Nurse, etc.

    We see Oiler castaways thriving in other markets all the time. Why? My working theory is that Edmonton has too many question marks, too many moving parts, too much chaos. It is much easier to develop a player when he is the only liability on his line than to throw them all to the wolves. What Oiler young gun got that kind of privilege?

    Enough with the chaos. Even if these are not the players Edmonton wins a championship with, their sheltering effect on the next generation of players is a compelling reason to keep them.

  127. AZOIL says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Seriously, trading Boyd Gordon is asinine. Turn this season around under Nelson, finish strong, re-sign Gordon in the summer. Even with MacTavish’s ability to find this player type, you are vastly underestimating how many of these player types are out there and available. Sami Pahlsson was worth so much to the Ducks. Boyd Gordon will be worth so much to the Oilers when they turn north.

    You get the cap space by trading Purcell and Ference if he will accept a move and by buying out Nikitin, not by trading Gordon.

    You then use 2016 picks and other assets to acquire someone that makes sense from the list of: Sharp, Thornton, Marleau, Eric Staal, Soderberg, etc. I know they have very different salaries, ages and values. You pick one that makes sense. Some of these guys will be victims of rebuilds (SJ/CAR and some will be victims of the cap, CHI/BOS).

    You offer Roy another year at $2M, see if he takes it.

    Hall-Thornton-Yakupov
    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Lander-Roy-Fraser/Pakarinen
    Klinkhammer-Gordon-Hendricks

    Lander also serves as the 5th C and can slide into the middle as needed for injuries.

    Draisaitl plays 1C in the AHL until you ship Roy out at the deadline next year.
    Nurse plays a full year in the AHL next year.

    You acquire a Hjalmarsson or Oduya or Seabrook from Chicago if you can, or look around at other cap-strapped teams. And yes, I know Seabrook will cost a lot more to acquire than some other guys. Again, find the best value you can.

    Hjalmarsson-Petry
    Marincin-Fayne
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Aulie

    Scrivens/???

    You aim high on a template like that, and prepare for the likelihood that you may settle for something less, but you’re going in the right direction.

    I don’t think this is being unreasonable? We are half way there and now everyone wants to trade away good players for more damn picks!!!

    Our first next year and the Pens 1st this year, and other picks should all be very valuable assets to get some of this done. I sure as hell hope MacT doesn’t screw up this summer, it really is looking like a crucial summer if we are to do it right and with the current cap situation.

    My worry is half these players will not be bought out. I guarantee MacT or Howson or Lowe or whoever makes the decisions up there will not admit NN was a mistake.

  128. frjohnk says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    frjohnk,

    I agree with you in some respects, certainly.

    However, veteran defensemen with Cup-winning experience and leadership intangibles still command some interest. Let’s say the Oilers retained $750K of his salary. $2.5MM cap hit isn’t too much for a team like Nashville, with the cap room, but lacking playoff experience on their team, to bear.A 3rd rounder could be the return.

    Put it this way, Ference has rebounded this year from last year. And he might waive his NMC if he gets to go to a playoff team. I think Ference still has a bit more value than Richards. Richards has a $5.75M cap hit and 5 years left after this. Ference’s boat anchor, by comparison, is much smaller.

    I’m on my phone but what teams can afford to pay a number 6,7 D man 3.25 million for two more years after this year and are also playoff bound?

    I wouldn’t imagine there are too many teams.

    With the salary cap not moving much, rental d men will be more sought after.

    But let’s say we retain some money. What are the chances he waives his NMC?

    I think it’s a pipe dream to move him.

    It would be great to for all the reasons you list. But I just don’t see him leaving.

  129. AZOIL says:

    Showerhead: Lowetide: If you’re spending another year on developing Yakupov, then you’re not doing everything you can to make the playoffs. Craig MacTavish is still in rebuild mode and the Perron trade is a good example. He traded his third best winger. WHY would he do that if 2015-16 season was the priority?
    The only reasonable answer is ‘because the pick will allow him to add a veteran in summer’ and that may well be. I think trading Boyd Gordon is unwise if the 2015-16 season matters.
    I’m not convinced the Oilers believe it does.
    Your logic holds true, which is sad.
    A big question could be: If 2015-16 doesn’t matter to Edmonton but some future year DOES matter, what is the best way to act?
    The right answer, in my mind, is still to keep the Perrons, Gordons, and Petrys of the world even if you’re tanking. Sure, they’d be sacrificial lambs, but their existence would create such a better world to bring up the next generation – Draisaitl, Nurse, etc.
    We see Oiler castaways thriving in other markets all the time. Why? My working theory is that Edmonton has too many question marks, too many moving parts, too much chaos. It is much easier to develop a player when he is the only liability on his line than to throw them all to the wolves. What Oiler young gun got that kind of privilege?
    Enough with the chaos. Even if these are not the players Edmonton wins a championship with, their sheltering effect on the next generation of players is a compelling reason to keep them.

    Yes Lowetide I get what your saying but this above is so true, we can’t keep this perpetual cycle of trading everyone away. He traded his third best winger because the Penguins were offering their first round pick, and that has value and is a piece that can help fill other holes or areas of weakness. Wing we are strong, so trade from a strength of ill a weakness. It really makes perfect sense to me and doesn’t signal we are throwing in the towel for 4 more years.

  130. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    LT, what are your thoughts on Barrie Colts’ G Mackenzie Blackwood?

    I’ve been banging the drum for a while that the 2nd round is the optimal round to pick potential elite goaltenders.

    Mackenzie has him at #36 so landing the top ranked G in the draft with that # 32 pick seems reasonable value?

    Outside Brossoit, this is an area of the pipeline that certainly lacks legitimate prospects.

    I don’t know that much about him to be honest.I think EDM will be all over him though. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Oilers use the Pens pick or their second-round pick on him.

  131. AZOIL says:

    frjohnk: I’m on my phone but what teams can afford to pay a number 6,7 D man 3.25 million for two more years after this year and are also playoff bound?

    I wouldn’t imagine there are too many teams.

    With the salary cap not moving much, rental d men will be more sought after.

    But let’s say we retain some money. What are the chances he waives his NMC?

    I think it’s a pipe dream to move him.

    It would be great to for all the reasons you list. But I just don’t see him leaving.

    I agree, I do not think MacT trades or buys out Ference or NN, but besides them there are other salaries we can get rid of to take advantage of a cap team no?

  132. Lowetide says:

    AZOIL: Yes Lowetide I get what your saying but this above is so true, we can’t keep this perpetual cycle of trading everyone away. He traded his third best winger because the Penguins were offering their first round pick, and that has value and is a piece that can help fill other holes or areas of weakness. Wing we are strong, so trade from a strength of ill a weakness. It really makes perfect sense to me and doesn’t signal we are throwing in the towel for 4 more years.

    I’m not suggesting that the Oilers trade Gordon for nothing. I’m suggesting that a team offering something outstanding should be considered.

  133. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    frjohnk,

    http://www.sportscity.com/nhl/salaries/nashville-predators-salaries/

    Flordia, Nashville? If $750K is retained, like I said, one of those situations where teams like this can pay $2.5M per and gain the cap hit of $3.25M. Not every team is up against the cap. Some would want the cap hit.

  134. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: I don’t know that much about him to be honest.I think EDM will be all over him though. Wouldn’t be at all surprised to see the Oilers use the Pens pick or their second-round pick on him.

    Thanks LT. Let’s hope he slides to them in the 2nd.

  135. Tom Benjamin says:

    Lowetide: Oilers already started that car with the Perron trade. They’re still rebuilding. You can’t be a little bit pregnant.

    I don’t think the Oiler management understands the process. A rebuild has two parts:

    1) The teardown phase: Unload all NHL players who are too old to help the team three years down the road. This happens once, hopefully.

    2) The build phase: Find and keep NHL players as long as they are young enough to help the team three years down the road, or at the point the team expects to win. The only guys who should be dealt for futures are guys who are too old to help that future team win.

    I don’t think it is unreasonable to trade Boyd Gordon although I don’t think he is worth much in a deadline deal because he gets paid too much. Still I doubt he will be a factor when (if?) the Oilers are ready to turn North. On the other hand it is stupid to trade Perron or Petry (or Dubnyk among others in the past few years) unless you are getting at least the same back in present value.

    As long as the Oilers keep trading players who can help the team win three years down the road for future value, they stay on the treadmill.

  136. Bag of Pucks says:

    LowetideCraig MacTavish is still in rebuild mode and the Perron trade is a good example. He traded his third best winger. WHY would he do that if 2015-16 season was the priority?

    Cos Perron criticized the ‘plan/system’ in his presser, and thus by association – coaching and mgmt.

    Has an Oiler ever directly criticized coaching and/or mgmt and not been cut loose? I can’t think of a single example offhand.

    For some reason, free speech is perceived as radical dissent by Oiler management. They see it as the player putting himself above the crest.

    Ironically, Perron spouted off over frustration that certain unnamed players were doing that very thing with their selfish play and poor system execution. Damned if you do….etc.

  137. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL":
    Month-end short squeeze under way in crude. Surged 8% today. A number of shorts had been set up at $46 and these just got stopped out. Canadian dollar in the super-near term may have peaked at 1.28 today as well. Not quite the financial crisis levels of 1.30, but there’s still time. But for now, could see this reverse, in my opinion.

    Heh, and that’s your trading update

    Speaking of blowing out stops… How do you feel about the Swissie right now? The SNB have me very worried. They are walking a tightrope with any misstep meaning plunging into the valley of death. That misstep could come tomorrow, next week, next month…

    Their only option seems to be to lose billions of dollars while bond specs spank them weekly for what they have done to their yield curve, all the while risking commercial bank bankruptcies (and resulting contagion) the whole tightrope walk across death valley.

    Meanwhile their unwind is threatening to drag the Bund into the same black hole.

    Could be an interesting Spring… in the Confucian sense.

  138. Lowetide says:

    Tom Benjamin: I don’t think the Oiler management understands the process. A rebuild has two parts:

    1) The teardown phase: Unload all NHL players who are too old to help the team three years down the road. This happens once, hopefully.

    2) The build phase: Find and keep NHL players as long as they are young enough to help the team three years down the road, or at the point the team expects to win. The only guys who should be dealt for futures are guys who are too old to help that future team win.

    I don’t think it is unreasonable to trade Boyd Gordon although I don’t think he is worth much in a deadline deal because he gets paid too much. Still I doubt he will be a factor when (if?) the Oilers are ready to turn North. On the other hand it is stupid to trade Perron or Petry (or Dubnyk among others in the past few years) unless you are getting at least the same back in present value.

    As long as the Oilers keep trading players who can help the team win three years down the road for future value, they stay on the treadmill.

    Yes. And trading Perron tells everyone, players, fans, opponents, that 2015-16 is not a priority. It just does.

  139. AZOIL says:

    Lowetide: I’m not suggesting that the Oilers trade Gordon for nothing. I’m suggesting that a team offering something outstanding should be considered.

    Well why didn’t you just say so? 🙂

  140. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: I’m not suggesting that the Oilers trade Gordon for nothing. I’m suggesting that a team offering something outstanding should be considered.

    I know there has been plenty of talk out there in the media that Gordon might bring a 1st rounder… say 23-30th overall.

    But that’s still trading for a 3-5 year future. Makes no sense. And while the Oil will probably not be a playoff team next year, they should be attempting to compete for it. Trading Gordon harms that attempt.

    The only way I trade him is in the scenario that Bruce mentioned (which was a brilliant idea), and that’s a trade for Sobotka if he is willing to return.

  141. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Yes. And trading Perron tells everyone, players, fans, opponents, that 2015-16 is not a priority. It just does.

    No. There is a big difference between trading a strength and trading a weakness. Not to mention the value of Perron to the team is/was less than the value of Gordon.

    It’s a lot easier to find a Perron in the off-season than a Gordon.

  142. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: I know there has been plenty of talk out there in the media that Gordon might bring a 1st rounder…say 23-30th overall.

    But that’s still trading for a 3-5 year future.Makes no sense.And while the Oil will probably not be a playoff team next year, they should be attempting to compete for it.Trading Gordon harms that attempt.

    The only way I trade him is in the scenario that Bruce mentioned (which was a brilliant idea), and that’s a trade for Sobotka if he is willing to return.

    I think that argument left with the Perron trade. Edmonton will spend next season developing Nail, while also adding Leon, Darnell and the lottery pick from this summer to the lineup .

    Klefbom-Schultz
    Nikitin-Fayne
    Nurse-addition

    that’s our blue.

  143. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    Its not about the playoffs, its about development. I think we’ve long established that we’ve had trouble developing our youngsters because they haven’t been surrounded by capable veterans to teach them the way. For recent example please see Roy’s work with Yakupov. So we are talking about trading Gordon for at best, what a second round pick that has 28% chance of having a NHL career. How about we keep him around. Keep beating that mule like he owes you money. Keep sheltering the young guys. Bring in another Corsi monster like Sobotka to help with the two way game. Otherwise we are going to keep wondering why are young guys aren’t developing and why the Jacks and Kings somehow have turned into 7s and 8s.

    More Gordon’s Not less.Otherwise we will be talking about rebuilding the rebuild of the rebuild.

  144. AZOIL says:

    Lowetide: Yes. And trading Perron tells everyone, players, fans, opponents, that 2015-16 is not a priority. It just does.

    Or for these reasons below:

    1) Perron made it clear he didn’t like it here and wanted nothing to do with the future
    2) MacT had a chance to see him in the locker and behind the bench
    3) Penguins are in a win now mode and were offering their 1st rounder in one of the deepest drafts in awhile and currently that pick could be as high as #20.
    4) Lastly, he was a winger, a postion of strength for us

  145. leadfarmer says:

    spoiler,

    Trading a guy that really doesn’t want to be here is different than trading a guy that has not had any complaints. You weren’t going to keep Perron past next year. Wish he was happy and wanted to stay long term but he didn’t so might at least get value for him.

  146. frjohnk says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    frjohnk,

    http://www.sportscity.com/nhl/salaries/nashville-predators-salaries/

    Flordia, Nashville? If $750K is retained, like I said, one of those situations where teams like this can pay $2.5M per and gain the cap hit of $3.25M. Not every team is up against the cap. Some would want the cap hit.

    I think Anaheim is another team that has considerable room, ( we really need a capgeek replacement) and might be looking for a veteran D man.

  147. AZOIL says:

    Lowetide: I think that argument left with the Perron trade. Edmonton will spend next season developing Nail, while also adding Leon, Darnell and the lottery pick from this summer to the lineup .

    Klefbom-Schultz
    Nikitin-Fayne
    Nurse-addition

    that’s our blue.

    Is that really all MacT is going to do with our D next year? I will cry if that is our D opening night? Can’t we do any better than that? Bring in anyone?

    Are you assuming a buyout for Ference then?

  148. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide:
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Nikitin-Fayne
    Nurse-Hunt
    that’s our blue.

    Fixed that for you.

  149. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: I think that argument left with the Perron trade. Edmonton will spend next season developing Nail, while also adding Leon, Darnell and the lottery pick from this summer to the lineup .

    Klefbom-Schultz
    Nikitin-Fayne
    Nurse-addition

    that’s our blue.

    Well, thanks. I hadn’t sobbed uncontrollably yet today, lol.

  150. Bruce McCurdy says:

    SkatinginSand:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Bruce,
    If you are trading for futures, is it not possible to get a strong potential but not ready for prime time prospect rather than picks, or isa Robert Neilson, Ryan O’Mara, Colton Tuebert, Patty O ‘Lanterns return the best you can get with this strategy?

    Yes. Put another way:

    Bruce McCurdy: If you can find a trade for a 21-year-old prospect with serious NHL potential, then I consider it.

  151. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Numenius:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    re: the Perron trade, I sometimes wonder if when McT did his evaluation of the room/team after Eakins left that he figured Perron was more part of the problem than the solution. It is interesting that Perron left not long after McT went back upstairs.

    Yes, I wonder that too. It also may well be they had a heart-to-heart by the far glass one practice & Perron said “get me the fuck out of here”.

  152. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: No. There is a big difference between trading a strength and trading a weakness. Not to mention the value of Perron to the team is/was less than the value of Gordon.

    It’s a lot easier to find a Perron in the off-season than a Gordon.

    The Oilers weren’t trading from strength, they haven’t been strong on wing since before the Hemsky trade. The Oilers don’t have an area of strength at this time.

  153. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Lowetide: The Oilers don’t have an area of strength at this time.

    Finally! BALANCE!!

  154. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    spoiler,

    I was always wondering what the exit strategy was for the Swiss National Bank. Turns out there was none. I think another round of volatility is coming soon there.

    Lowetide,

    I was mad about the Perron trade. I’ve reached the point of trying to move on from it. I think this summer is a crucial summer for the Edmonton Oilers for all the reasons I’ve laid out in the past couple of weeks.

    1) The Canadian dollar and the markets affect the Cap. I talked about how 1.30 was possible, 1.225 was the base case. We touched 1.28 today already. The NHL was likely underestimating this. Over 1/3 of the NHL’s revenue comes from Canada (only 20% of the teams are from Canada). The Canadian dollar has just taken a 20% plunge since the start of the season. That means roughly 6.5% of revenues has gone up in smoke. Escrow is likely to go up and the Cap is likely to stay flat, or if there is a small uptick, it’s significantly less than the $74-$75M people were talking about. It’s going to be more like $70M. Several teams have put themselves in cap hell as a result. Chicago, Philadelphia, Boston, NY Rangers, LA, St. Louis to name some.

    2) The Oilers, so long as they can clear the cap space, have a golden opportunity to take advantage. They have draft picks, a wealthy owner who can spend to the cap. This team could add a veteran high end C, a veteran top 4 D, and a veteran goalie. These assets could be acquired for far less than under normal circumstances because the primary return for these teams is the cap room. They’d prefer prospects and picks in return (like the Boychuk trade) over guys with salaries.

    But the Oilers must admit to their mistakes and cut their losses. They must clear as much space as they can.

    With these two considerations, the Oilers could legitimately turn themselves into a contender to make the playoffs next year. Picture the below as a BASE case where they’re unable to get a Thornton or Marleau or Sharp or a Seabrook type.

    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Hall-Soderberg-Yakupov
    Lander-Roy-Fraser/Pakarinen
    Hendricks-Gordon-Klinkhammer

    Hjalmarsson-Petry
    Marincin-Fayne
    Klefbom-Schultz

    Scrivens
    Neuvirth/Enroth

    With Hanifin or Eichel, Draisaitl, and Nurse in the pipeline in college and the AHL

    Two years from now you have:

    Hall-Nuge-Eberle
    Pouliot-Soderberg-Yakupov
    Lander-Draisaitl-Pakarinen(or Eichel)
    Yakimov-Gordon-Klinkhammer

    (Or Gordon moves on, and Lander slides into 4c: Nuge-Soderberg-Draisaitl-Lander)

    And Nurse making one of the D expendable at that point, hopefully. Hanifin a year away.

    The team could turn around its fortunes in a huge way this summer.

    I agree that the biggest question mark is: Is Craig MacTavish the man for this job? Will he be able to execute with the discipline and “mea culpa” required to cut some of his losses and fix this team?

    We wait.

  155. TheOtherJohn says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Are you on twitter?

    Suggested trading for Soderberg in off season….shot down here

  156. Gordies Elbow says:

    godot10,

    If Petry’s camp is looking at $5.5 over 5, or $27.5m, I would move Petry now.

    He’s a good defender, but everything is lining up for him to be an anchor contract. Based on what I’ve read, it sounds like his camp is looking for maximum dollars. His agent is Don Meehan’s Newport Sports Management, so I wouldn’t expect a home town discount for Edmonton. Based on previous year’s UFA crops, I could see a team coming at him with that type of contract.

    Say the NHL believes that the Hockey Related Revenues (HRR) will go up by 6.35% from $3.62bn to $3.85bn. Canadian revenue represents about 32.5% of revenues. With some back of the napkin math, that projects to $70.8m per team in maximum cap space.

    What if the dollar continues to fall? Goldman Sachs sees a 71 cent loonie. That would make the cap ~$68.7m. Less if the escalator isn’t factored in, and with contracting revenues, why would the players use the escalator, increasing their escrow?

    It’s not unreasonable to believe that the dollar will continue to drop, HRR will drop, and that the players do not use the escalator. If I were a GM, I would be projecting a flat cap or a small reduction in cap for at least two years.

    Is Petry ‘s contribution worth 7.7% of the teams cap? 8.0%? That’s quite a commitment for a player that hasn’t shown that he can play top minutes. “Perhaps it’s the poor team he’s been on,” is the rationalization that the GM who offers him the contract.

    I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. The value of an “Actual NHL player” is less than most here would believe. Petry signed to an anchor contract, or a late 2nd and a mid-tier prospect? Given how hard it’s becoming to move anchor contracts, and without the ability to bury the cap space, it’s possible that the best play for Edmonton is to part ways with Petry.

    “Find good contracts, keep good contracts.”

  157. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    I am @GmanBackpacker

    You?

    Sorry, I don’t recall that, but believe you. And I wouldn’t have shut you down. But I think he still would have cost a pretty penny to acquire last summer because of his value as a super low cap hit to the Bruins. This summer? Trade a pick for his rights and sign the man. Be ahead of the curve as soon as the Bruins are eliminated from the playoffs.

  158. AZOIL says:

    Lowetide: The Oilers weren’t trading from strength, they haven’t been strong on wing since before the Hemsky trade. The Oilers don’t have an area of strength at this time.

    They have potential or perceived strength on wing, that’s better than the toilet bowl of D and C.

    But seriously LT, do you really think nothing changes with our D other than some call-ups?

  159. verdad2.0 says:

    Can we get to this simple conclu sion if the Oilers are serious about improvement then don’t trade the likes of Perron , Gordon , etc.
    But learn from NYI , trade drafts picks and the stockpile of underwhelming first round draft choiies!

  160. Lowetide says:

    AZOIL: They have potential or perceived strength on wing, that’s better than the toilet bowl of D and C.

    But seriously LT, do you really think nothing changes with our D other than some call-ups?

    I think Nikitin was starting to turn a corner and am pretty sure we’re seeing Klefbom-Schultz develop chem. So, if Nikitin-fayne is added to the young pairing, then we have Ference (who is looking like odd man out but that could change) and Petry (gone baby gone).

    I think Nurse makes the team next season and they probably go get a veteran RH or run with Marincin if they haven’t buried him under a mountain of leaves.

    but no, I don’t expect a big move mostly because there’s little out there that is available for less than all of your everything.

  161. AZOIL says:

    Lowetide: I think Nikitin was starting to turn a corner and am pretty sure we’re seeing Klefbom-Schultz develop chem. So, if Nikitin-fayne is added to the young pairing, then we have Ference (who is looking like odd man out but that could change) and Petry (gone baby gone).

    I think Nurse makes the team next seasonand they probably go get a veteran RH or run with Marincin if they haven’t buried him under a mountain of leaves.

    but no, I don’t expect a big move mostly because there’s little out there that is available for less than all of your everything.

    So hope and pray for a savior type goalie! Check! Have a great weekend folks!

  162. spoiler says:

    The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL": I was always wondering what the exit strategy was for the Swiss National Bank. Turns out there was none. I think another round of volatility is coming soon there.

    Agreed. And despite the price of oil, the implosion in Brazil, despite Greece, Russia, China, Hezbollah etc… all pretty big things… I think SNB/CHF is the blinkiest red light on the global alarm board right now. ie Greatest systemic threat.

  163. godot10 says:

    Lowetide: Yes. And trading Perron tells everyone, players, fans, opponents, that 2015-16 is not a priority. It just does.

    No, it doesn’t. It says Pouliot got Perron’s money. And Perron is going to want at least $5 million per season as a UFA.

    Gordon and Hendricks are not going to cost more on their next contracts, and keeping them with the terms they have left serve as almost perfect bridge contracts so that you don’t have to rush developing players, or overpay for replacement “stopgaps” in salary or term in the free agent market this summer.

    Gordon is a big ticket for a 4th line centre on a contending team. The extra year left at $3 million is a killer for a contending team. He will be worth as much or more at the trade deadline next year when he is an expiring contract.

    Gordon and Hendricks are irreplaceable in terms of the value for money for the remaining term on their contracts. The short duration and the fact that they can “do their job” well means they are perfect bridge players to their in-house developed cheap replacements.

  164. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: The Oilers weren’t trading from strength, they haven’t been strong on wing since before the Hemsky trade. The Oilers don’t have an area of strength at this time.

    Obtaining Purcell and choosing to stick with Yak (which they should), doomed Perron. They were too thick with offensive RWers. I don’t think we can say the same about C and Gordon’s role. I’m sure they would rather have traded Purcell, but he’s higher cost at less effectiveness. No way he brings back anything near what Perron did.

  165. rickithebear says:

    After the Domi-Marner affect question was asked.

    the results for
    Mcdavid-Strome
    have me excited for strome
    and
    nervous about Mcdavid.

    Mcdavid has played 26GM
    With strome
    13Gm 3.30 PPG +16 156 pt age based NHLE
    Without Strome
    13gm 1.92 PPG +20 91PT age based NHLE
    42% reductin

    Strome played 46gm
    With Mcdavid
    13gm 2.62 PPG 141 PT age based NHLE
    Without Mcdavid
    33Gm 1.61 PPG 87pt age based NHLE
    40% reduction

    wonder what % is boost from playing together

  166. Caramel Obvious says:

    Lowetide: I’m not suggesting that the Oilers trade Gordon for nothing. I’m suggesting that a team offering something outstanding should be considered.

    A second round pick, especially a late second round pick, is effectively nothing.

  167. godot10 says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    godot10,

    If Petry’s camp is looking at $5.5 over5, or $27.5m, I would move Petry now.

    He’s a good defender, but everything is lining up for him to be an anchor contract. Based on what I’ve read, it sounds like his camp is looking for maximum dollars. His agent is Don Meehan’s Newport Sports Management, so I wouldn’t expect a home town discount for Edmonton. Based on previous year’s UFA crops, I could see a team coming at him with that type of contract.

    Say the NHL believes that the Hockey Related Revenues (HRR) will go up by 6.35% from $3.62bn to $3.85bn. Canadian revenue represents about 32.5% of revenues. With some back of the napkin math, that projects to $70.8m per team in maximum cap space.

    What if the dollar continues to fall? Goldman Sachs sees a 71 cent loonie.That would make the cap ~$68.7m. Less if the escalator isn’t factored in, and with contracting revenues, why would the players use the escalator, increasing their escrow?

    It’s not unreasonable to believe that the dollar will continue to drop, HRR will drop, and that the players do not use the escalator. If I were a GM, I would be projecting a flat cap or a small reduction in cap for at least two years.

    Is Petry ‘s contribution worth 7.7% of the teams cap? 8.0%? That’s quite a commitment for a player that hasn’t shown that he can play top minutes. “Perhaps it’s the poor team he’s been on,” is the rationalization that the GM who offers him the contract.

    I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again. The value of an “Actual NHL player” is less than most here would believe.Petry signed to an anchor contract, or a late 2nd and a mid-tier prospect? Given how hard it’s becoming to move anchor contracts, and without the ability to bury the cap space, it’s possible that the best play for Edmonton is to part ways with Petry.

    “Find good contracts, keep good contracts.”

    Phaneuf is 6 x $7 million remaining, and will cost a significant asset.

    Boychuk is going to cost 6 x $7 (the Islanders are supposedly offering 6 x 6.7)

    One is and the other will soon be on the wrong side of 30.

    Petry is 27, entering his prime years, and is a right shot. 5 x $5.5 million is market value and respect. He is the Oilers best defensemen.

  168. Lowetide says:

    Caramel Obvious: A second round pick, especially a late second round pick, is effectively nothing.

    Yes. Did I say I would trade Gordon for a late second round pick? I don’t think I did.

  169. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: Obtaining Purcell and choosing to stick with Yak (which they should), doomed Perron.They were too thick with offensive RWers.I don’t think we can say the same about C and Gordon’s role.I’m sure they would rather have traded Purcell, but he’s higher cost at less effectiveness.No way he brings back anything near what Perron did.

    Sticking with Yakupov and Purcell and trading Perron doomed the Oilers 2015-16. So I guess they’re all even.

  170. godot10 says:

    AZOIL: So hope and pray for a savior type goalie! Check! Have a great weekend folks!

    Nelson is fixing the goaltenders and the goals against as we speak. They are down about 1 goal against per game since Nelson took over.

    By April, re-signing Fasth for 2 years on a value contract 2 x $3 million will be an option. Scrivens stoned Nelson’s Barons in the AHL playoffs one year, so Nelson probably has some belief in his abilities.

    Eakins effed everything up he touched. Nelson is slowly un-effing them. Dubnyk is 4-0 against the Oilers this year.

    The savior goaltender on a big ticket can wait.

  171. McSorley33 says:

    Lowetide,

    The Oilers weren’t trading from strength, they haven’t been strong on wing since before the Hemsky trade. The Oilers don’t have an area of strength at this time.
    **************************************************************************
    Well put….

  172. MightyOil1 says:

    Lowetide: I think that argument left with the Perron trade. Edmonton will spend next season developing Nail, while also adding Leon, Darnell and the lottery pick from this summer to the lineup .Klefbom-SchultzNikitin-FayneNurse-additionthat’s our blue.

    To me, its so depressing to know that NEXT season is already over and the Oilers have missed the playoffs, FFS.

  173. MightyOil1 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Cos Perron criticized the ‘plan/system’ in his presser, and thus by association – coaching and mgmt.Has an Oiler ever directly criticized coaching and/or mgmt and not been cut loose? I can’t think of a single example offhand.For some reason, free speech is perceived as radical dissent by Oiler management. They see it as the player putting himself above the crest.Ironically, Perron spouted off over frustration that certain unnamed players were doing that very thing with their selfish play and poor system execution. Damned if you do….etc.

    This, all day, this. There are far too many examples that verify this exact thing. Can you imagine what is must be like inside the hcokey ops department?

  174. Gordies Elbow says:

    godot10: Phaneuf is 6 x $7 million remaining, and will cost a significant asset.

    Boychuk is going to cost 6 x $7 (the Islanders are supposedly offering 6 x 6.7)

    One is and the other will soon be on the wrong side of 30.

    Petry is 27, entering his prime years, and is a right shot.5 x $5.5 million is market value and respect.He is the Oilers best defensemen.

    He might be Edmonton’s best defenseman right now, but you’re gambling that he’ll remain it throughout the course of his contract.

    Say the Canadian dollar hits $0.70, and league HHR doesn’t increase. Not an unreasonable bet, with 32% of revenues booked based on Canadian dollars. Players realize the pool isn’t increasing, and don’t use the escalator. If this happens, you’re looking at a maximum cap of $64.3m.

    Current CBA goes to 2022, so no compliance buyouts.

    I can’t speak to the Boychuck contract, but if that is what they’re offering, if I were his agent, I’d be taking it, based on the financial landscape.

    Phaneuf is an excellent comparable. Paid as a true #1, unable to perform at that level. If the cap doesn’t rise, the pressure on the player by fans increases with the expectations. Anyone think that Phaneuf can outperform his contract?

  175. Frelbo says:

    Similar to what others have said, I hate to see someone get hurt. But part of me smiled when I thought about not seeing Nikitin wear skates for the rest of the season. It’s a common hope that the Oilers will buy him out at the end of the year, but are they allowed to buy out an injured player? I’m assuming of course that this is a longer term injury that stretches into the offseason and buyout window. It would be sad irony that we couldn’t buy out someone that was too injured to play shitty for us.

  176. spoiler says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    I think if Phaneuf moves for any sort of value, it’s because the Laffs are sucking up a couple mill of that contract.

  177. spoiler says:

    Rantanen’s offense is coming around, it looks like. That’s an awful team he’s playing on (the Sabres of the Fin league), and then there’s the lack of assists over there. Skating was a pre-season issue too, but since then I’ve seen highlights of him Linda Ronstadt-ing some grown-up defensemen.

    Merkley is built like a tank. Would love to see him fall to the Pittsburgh pick.

  178. Gordies Elbow says:

    Frelbo,

    Could someone explain the value in buying out Nikitin?

    Wouldn’t it just burn $2.25m in cap space next year, and then another $2.25m in cap space in 2016-2017, rather than just burning $4.5m next year. It’s such a short contract, depending on the severity of his injury, you could likely just LITR him.

  179. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Sticking with Yakupov and Purcell and trading Perron doomed the Oilers 2015-16. So I guess they’re all even.

    Naaaah. Because MacT can find these kinds of players in a snowstorm. There are certainly more of them than the Gordons of this world. Should be a cakewalk.

  180. Ribs says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Finally! BALANCE!!

    lol. Nice.

  181. RexLibris says:

    LT,

    NOW who’s a closet Flames fan? http://flamesnation.ca/2015/1/30/johnny-gaudreau

    😉

  182. Woodguy says:

    Perron was traded the day MacT signed Pouliot for 5 years.

    It was supposed to be for a 2C to fill a hole, but that fell through so he maximized value (in his mind) by getting the most liquid of NHL assets, a 1st round pick.

    MacT will still try to turn Perron into a 2C, but now Perron is PIT’s 1st and he’ll have to add to it.

    Bettman on draft day: “We have a trade to announce….”

  183. Frelbo says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    Because Nikitin is older than 26, the Oilers would owe him 2/3 of the remaining $ over twice the remaining term. So $1.5MM over each of the next two years. My question wasn’t about the logic of a buyout (though I do think it’s logical…), it was regarding whether the CBA allows a buyout of an injured player.

  184. fifthcartel says:

    Woodguy,

    “Edmonton acquires centre Tyler Bozak from the Toronto Maple Leafs in excha-…”

  185. DocFan says:

    Wow. A lot going on in this thread.

    First, we are all still looking at this as biased Oiler Fans. I think LT is right – the writing is already on the wall – MacT will make trades for draft picks. Rebuild of the rebuild of the rebuild.

    Is Petry worth 5.5×5? He is Edmonton’s best defence man, but is he a 5.5 x 5 on a Detroit or St. Louis? I don’t think so. In order to sign him for this money, they HAVE to get rid of a Nikitin or a Purcell to make room.

    Gordon – 3 million a year and 32 next year? No doubt Gordon is in consideration for MVP. But he has 1 maybe 2 years of this level of play left? and you think his extension will be any less than 3 million a year? that’s a lot of money for what he does.

    Yakupov – I predict he will be traded for 2nd round pick / prospect. And he’ll struggle in 2015-16, and light it up in 16-17.

    This team is several steps behind in development (which stems from 2008-2010). It’s at least 3 years from today that this is a decent, playoff team. Trying to win now (yes I know how that sounds), and we’ll just make the same mistakes that brought us here in the first place.

    Have to make smart decisions in this day and age – not only on player /personnel, but re: Cap in the next 5 years. You can’t waste money anymore on Nikitin type contracts. You have to have value or you are sunk.

    Just my 2 cents.

  186. Saul Goodman says:

    What`s the asking price for OEL?.

    A). Hall
    B). RNH (The untouchable)
    C). Nurse + Yakupov
    D). Eberle + Klefbom +
    E). 2 ov 15

  187. godot10 says:

    DocFan:

    Is Petry worth 5.5×5? He is Edmonton’s best defence man, but is he a 5.5 x 5 on a Detroit or St. Louis? I don’t think so. In order to sign him for this money, they HAVE to get rid of a Nikitin or a Purcell to make room.

    Gordon – 3 million a year and 32 next year? No doubt Gordon is in consideration for MVP. But he has 1 maybe 2 years of this level of play left? and you think his extension will be any less than 3 million a year? that’s a lot of money for what he does.

    St. Louis needs Petry, the rental, not Petry long term, because they have Pieterangelo and Shattenkirk. But they would love to have Petry to pair with Jackman on the 3rd pairing for a long playoff run.

    Babcock is short right shot D, and he really likes 3 right shot D, and three left shot D. Which is why they have been kicking the tires on Myers all year.

    The going rate for prime UFA years for legit multi-tool 2nd pairing D is $5.5-$6 million.

    The beauty of Gordon’s contract is that it is for only one more year. Anybody you would replace him with from the UFA market you would have to overpay on a 3-year deal. Lander and Draisaitl are one full season away. At $3 million, Gordon is too expensive for contending team to put on their roster next year, so next year at the deadline, when his contract is expiring is when he will have maximum value.

  188. GCW_69 says:

    Lowetide: 2. There are 130 guys who do it better than Crouse in this draft

    Fixed it for you.

  189. GCW_69 says:

    Saul Goodman:
    What`s the asking price for OEL?.

    A). Hall
    B). RNH (The untouchable)
    C). Nurse + Yakupov
    D). Eberle + Klefbom +
    E). 2 ov 15

    I think you start with Eberle. He still has considerable cache around the league. From there you add Schultz. If that doesn’t work you switch to Marincin. If that doesn’t work you add the Oilers second round pick. If that doesn’t work you add Pittsburgh’s first. If that doesn’t work you offer Eberle, Klefbom and Pittsburgh’s 1st. That should do it.

    If you wanted to be really crazy, you could offer Hall and Pittsburgh’s pick for OEL and Arizona’s pick.

    That puts you officially in rebuild 3.0 but also means you probably walk away with one of the top two forwards, Hanifan, and your anchor defender. Leon moves to left wing to fill Hall’s spot. There are worse outcomes and rebuild 2.0 isn’t working.

  190. kelvjn says:

    I can never understand why the 2015 draft is hyped to be the deepest since 2003.
    Beyond McEichel (and Strome), the top 10 prospect either does not score a lot, or is on the small side.

    Let’s assume for a second the draft is as deep as it is touted, if a chance were to spring up for a 1 for 3 trade for either Pitts 1st or Edm 2nd (ala Zykov) , should the oilers take it?

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca