BOLD TARGET SEARCH: BRENT SEABROOK

Craig MacTavish used the word ‘bold’ in his first media avail as Oilers GM, 2013. Since then, bold has become a buzzword among Oilers fans—a taunt, really—and today another prairie town is celebrating bold while our northern town toils away in the blue and grey. If we use the Winnipeg—Buffalo trade as a template, could we concoct a reasonable deal? If we pick a target, say Brent Seabrook of the Chicago Blackhawks, could we create a reasonable trade scenario? Let’s have a lash.

  • Chicago has two monster contracts (Toews and Kane) coming online in 2015-16, as well as big raises due for Brandon Saad and others.
  • Chicago has Hjalmarsson—Oduya pairing plus Keith as the center of the blue. They would have to sign Oduya (UFA this summer).
  • Edmonton has some nice pieces who may be able to step in and help. Several of those pieces are in their entry-level deals or remain low cost.
  • Edmonton would have to get Seabrook signed long-term before making the deal (UFA 2016).

POSSIBLE ASSETS FOR TRADE

  • The Pittsburgh No. 1
  • Martin Marincin
  • Nail Yakupov
  • Leon Draisaitl
  • Justin Schultz

BRENT SEABROOK PLAYER CARD

 

PLAYER 5X5/60 QCOMP CORSIFOR ZSTART
BRENT SEABROOK 2014-15 0.79 3rd toughest 53.1 52.5 (3rd toughest)

Would you make a trade for Seabrook? His current cap hit is $5.8 million and he’s 30 in April. He plays 22:24 a night and is a quality veteran. There are lots of miles on him but he should have several productive years left.

POSSIBLE PAIRINGS FOR 2015-16 (OILERS)

  • Klefbom—Schultz
  • Nikitin—Seabrook
  • Marincin—Fayne
  • Ference

Thoughts?

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113 Responses to "BOLD TARGET SEARCH: BRENT SEABROOK"

  1. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I love the idea of picking up Brent Seabrook.

    That said, holy mother what a change that will be for him. To go from playing with Duncan Keith on a somewhat sheltered pairing to playing with Nikitin against the toughs.

    Damn.

  2. coolwasabi says:

    LOL @ Brent Seabrook having to go from Duncan Keith to Nikita Nikitin. That’s like having to go from a Norris Trophy winner to Nikita Nikitin.

    Poor Seabrook..

  3. watchtower64 says:

    I’d be comfortable with those assets with the exception
    of Yak. Love the idea of Seabrook though.

  4. YoungOil says:

    I’m thinking the oilers have a spot reserved for Nurse on the left side.

    Nurse—Seabrook (?)
    Klefbom—Schultz (O zone)
    Marincin—Fayne (D Zone)
    Ference

    In this scenario, would you buy out / bury Nikitin’s contract?

    Edit: If Marincin + Pitts 1st rounder is the ask from Chicago, that works out nicely with Nikitin as the 7th man out.

  5. supernova says:

    LT,

    I swear you did this post just for me.
    I have been commenting for years between here and Oilersnation on the D I want is Seabrook.
    I confess I have had a man-crush on Seabrook since watching him in the WHL.

    I would trade for him and pair him with Nurse or Klefbom next year.

    He is exactly the player we have needed on D for the entirety of Halls career.
    Well i am not going to say he is a true #1 =, he might be a very solid #2. RH shot to boot.
    ———–

    What would Chicago want?

    cap space and young players to replace Nick Leddy, Johnny Oduya, and Seabrook.

    ———-

    Marincin, Pittsburgh 1st, and Yakimov would come close, maybe it takes Kyle Platzer or Marco Roy as well.

    I do that in a heart beat.

    biggest issue is age and contract.

    if he is willing to sign it takes at least his current contract.

    lets say 6.5 times 6.

    39 million over 6 is probably close.

    will he be worth it at 35 ? or 37?

    not likely but we have to improve somehow.

    next bold target should be Byfugelien.

  6. Ray says:

    So if Chicago trades/loses Seabrook then they need a cheaper competent replacement…

    I’d offer Pitt’s 1st, Mark Fayne, and any prospect in OKC or Jr not named Leon or Darnel

    If they also want to unload Bickel I’d have time to listen to options.
    Marincin—Seabrook
    Klefbom—Schultz
    Ference—Nikitin

  7. Melman says:

    If this is your D, who have you traded? Pitt’s 1st and Yak isn’t enough is it?
    Klefbom—Schultz
    Nikitin—Seabrook
    Marincin—Fayne
    Ference

    Putting a deal for Seabrook together would solve a BIG bunch of troubles

  8. Moose says:

    Surprised at some of the responses here. Love the player, but Oilers are not deep enough system-wide to be giving up multiple mid to high level assets for ONE year of Brent Seabrook. Anybody think he signs an extension here?

    Reality is you’re probably giving up those assets for 60 games and flipping him at the deadline again unless MacT can have a Garth Snow-like summer and grabs a goalie and another top 4 D-man. From his verbal last week it doesn’t sound like that’s his plan. Hope to god I’m wrong.

  9. Woodguy says:

    Moose,

    Surprised at some of the responses here. Love the player, but Oilers are not deep enough system-wide to be giving up multiple mid to high level assets for ONE year of Brent Seabrook. Anybody think he signs an extension here?

    Supernova stipultated that you pay that much if he signs an extension before the trade, so its multiple years of Seabrook.

  10. Rondo says:

    Seabrook turns 30 in April, Oilers are years away from the playoffs.

  11. Ray says:

    Seabrook is just what this team needs… MacT talks about the “Chicago model” well the Blackhawks had to overpay to get a star defenceman before they turned a corner. For as much as my tier 2 fan vote is worth, this is the player I target and go all out for.

  12. VanOil says:

    Boldly going in another direction, fixing the D through subtraction;

    Schultz + Pits 1st for Joe Thornton + Matt Tennyson

    add Ference or Purcell on a salary retain if they want them or a 2016 depth pick if required

    Sign Petry

  13. rickithebear says:

    coolwasabi:
    LOL @ Brent Seabrook having to go from Duncan Keith to Nikita Nikitin. That’s like having to go from a Norris Trophy winner to Nikita Nikitin.

    Poor Seabrook..

    Keith 2nd comp 2,55 EVGA/60 league average 2.33
    Norris winner with below average defence.

    Question is Seabrook was facing 2nd/3rd comp last few years in e.g. season

    last 4 playoffs
    2011 5gm even 3rd comp
    2012 6gm 1G 2A +1 1st comp
    2013 23gm 3G 1A -1 1st comp
    2014 16gm 3G 12A even 2nd comp

  14. Unicorns says:

    It’s possible Myers is Buf’s replacement in the Peg. I think investing some cap and lower grade assets in him or Seabrook wouldn’t be a bad idea if they’re available and I think they might be in the summer. Man I miss capgeek.

    But it isn’t worth spending high end assets like Yak or Drai for a guy that might walk. They wouldn’t be around long enough to help when it matters. Being signed makes it different, but for that to work the overpaid need to be liquidated and that contract needs to be the only one that goes underwater on D, the trade off being 3-4 years of high end play the current ‘vets’ never delivered.

    Either would provide a lot of cover for a young partner. Sending Norris out as part of the deal would be fine and start looking for another RHD in the draft. For me JS is a perfect storm of things I don’t like in a D. I do think he has ability and may be a good player in the end, but if I have always thought one way players have less value than many think.

    They’re like the risky shiny bauble investments NYC, Spoiler et al have been edjumacating us about IMO.

  15. Ryan says:

    Moose,

    The MacT verbal last week is terrifying for Oilers fans. What makes it worse is that Woodguy pointed out that he’s generally honest and telegraphs his moves.

  16. oliveoilers says:

    Ryan:
    Moose,

    The MacT verbal last week is terrifying for Oilers fans.What makes it worse is that Woodguy pointed out that he’s generally honest and telegraphs his moves.

    Honest = Naïve?

  17. LadiesloveSmid says:

    will Edmonton realistically be competing for the playoffs in the next 3 years? Seems like a lot of futures going into a hopeful run out of the bottom 5

    I’d look younger.

  18. RexLibris says:

    LT you’ve got it all wrong.

    You’re trying to put together a package for Seabrook with the current roster when MacTavish was already way ahead of you.

    That package has already been sent over and he’s sitting back waiting for Der Tag when he can collect the return.

    http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/382155

    “…future considerations”

    Come on, it is all coming together now!

  19. VanOil says:

    Now that Nelson has saved Lander in the first step in his Beautification can we have Pääjärvi back?

    MPS-Lander-Iiro is a great bottom modern 6 line. Trust worthy, fast, multi-dimensional.

    Pääjärvi >>> Fraser>>> Gadzook who Lander made look good last night (or at least not awful)

  20. fifthcartel says:

    VanOil,

    I was all for them claiming Paajarvi, his speed would have been a plus as they are starting to lack those types.

    Also, would not have expected Paajarvi to be the one in the AHL and Lander to be in the NHL at this point in their careers.

  21. Alpine says:

    Woodguy,

    Man what a black comedy scenario that would be. Sign an extension with Chicago, get traded to Edmonton right after.

  22. Moose says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks, I think I read it as “do the deal and hope he sign extension,” but fair enough.

    I think what MacT learned this off-season is what it was really hard to make those bold deals without quality depth. Early in the season he alluded several times to the fact that they weren’t in the position to pay the asset cost to acquire higher end players (think he was referring to a goalie at the time), which I think you can tie into his comments about drafting and developing undermining everything they do. To acquire high-end veteran players, teams are gonna ask about Nurse, Draisaitl, Klefbom, etc. Subtract one those players from our prospect pool and what do we really have?

    We’re all guilty at some point of over-valuing our players. How many teams do you think are actually asking for Chase, Yakimov, or Simpson as key pieces in a deal? They’re nice mid-level prospects who could be nice complimentary players at the NHL level.

    Whenever I’m sitting at home playing armchair GM trying to construct fictional deals, I try to make them “hurt” a little bit, because most often those are the deals that are made in the real world, and quite honestly, the Oilers don’t have enough pieces to move that “hurt.” To me that’s a giant tell.

  23. LadiesloveSmid says:

    VanOil:
    Now that Nelson has saved Lander in the first step in his Beautification can we have Pääjärvi back?

    MPS-Lander-Iiro is a great bottom modern 6 line. Trust worthy, fast, multi-dimensional.

    Pääjärvi >>> Fraser>>> Gadzook who Lander made look good last night (or at least not awful)

    the team is really lacking speed. Especially with Hall-Pou out. No value in Gazzy. Take that anchor off of Lander’s line

  24. Ray says:

    LT,

    Is your headline the first in a series of “Bold Target Searches”?

    If not it would be a great idea for a few posts to highlight options and get all our hopes up 🙂

  25. Moose says:

    Ryan:
    Moose,

    The MacT verbal last week is terrifying for Oilers fans.What makes it worse is that Woodguy pointed out that he’s generally honest and telegraphs his moves.

    I know, it was so depressing. When I heard it, I immediately resigned myself to year 10 without playoff hockey.

  26. G Money says:

    You target Seabrook because cap trouble makes him available. Somebody good and expensive has to be shipped out by Chicago for value – picks or prospects.

    Some other teams will be in a similar boat – more sellers.

    Because other teams are in cap trouble, the market for that trade is also slim(mer) – fewer buyers.

    Higher than normal supply and lower than normal demand drives prices down.

    Why let Chicago off the hook? Take them to the cleaners. They’ve had their run.

    “Cleaners” might mean you still pay a hefty price for a good player – but the point is, a whole lot less than otherwise.

  27. MightyOil1 says:

    Moose: I know, it was so depressing. When I heard it, I immediately resigned myself to year 10 without playoff hockey.

    Maybe it’s not surprising but this was so clear….it must be clear to the team as well.

    What scares me also is both MacT and Klowe have given only faint praise to the current coach.

  28. 719 says:

    I am sorry to rehash my ideas from the last thread, I honestly think Sharp is the more likely move. He has a famous name that should attract a nice prospect. His production really fell off this year, and he has a 5.9 million dollar caphit. The Hawks also have Saad and Versteeg who are in line to take his roster spot.

    I doubt the Hawks move Seabrook, simply because his player type is so hard to acquire. The Oilers have been needing a player like him for years, the fact they still don’t have one goes to show how difficult a player like that is to get.

    I was also completely on board on picking up PRV and running PRV-Lander – Iiro.

  29. Lowetide says:

    Ray:
    LT,

    Is your headline the first in a series of “Bold Target Searches”?

    If not it would be a great idea for a few posts to highlight options and get all our hopes up :-)

    Ha! I have a couple in mind, we’ll see where it goes. 🙂

  30. John Chambers says:

    The issue with Seabrook is that he’ll want a long contract but his play is all but certain to drop off after 3-5 years while his cap hit will undoubtedly still be $5-$7M.

    Some guys like Brian Campbell continue to play well even near the end of his massive contract, but there’s every chance that Seabrook turns into Wade Redden in a real hurry.

    Fir that reason I’m all about using the kitchen sink to pursue a top-pair defence man that is still young -OEL would be nirvana, Letang a better solution IMO than Seabrook. But again trades are much easier to dream up than realize.

  31. godot10 says:

    Seabrook is too old and would require a contract for too much money and DURATION. Whale hunting for 30 somethings is stupid, IMHO. I don’t think Chicago will trade him. They will not re-sign Oduya and Rosival, and pay the big three D. They have Keith and Hjalmarsson on cap friendly deals. They will be able to afford keep Seabrook.

    I think Sharp will agree to a trade to Florida.

    Just sign Petry. He is the right age. Young enough, that he probably will be willing to accept less duration, because it is advantageous for him to be UFA again at 32, instead of 34. 5 x $5.5 million. Get it done.

    Sign Petry, and trade for Coburn. Buyout Ference. Nikitin is the #7 pressbox D. Nurse starts in AHL.

    Coburn, Petry
    Klefbom, Schultz
    Marincin, Fayne
    Nikitin

  32. Zangetsu says:

    Nurse Klef
    Marincin Jultz
    Nikitin Ference
    Fayne

    BOLD. That’s the effin plan.

  33. Ray says:

    godot10:
    Seabrook is too old and would require a contract for too much money and DURATION. Whale hunting for 30 somethings is stupid, IMHO.I don’t think Chicago will trade him.They will not re-sign Oduya and Rosival, and pay the big three D.They have Keith and Hjalmarsson on cap friendly deals.They will be able to afford keep Seabrook.

    I think Sharp will agree to a trade to Florida.

    Just sign Petry.He is the right age.Young enough, that he probably will be willing to accept less duration, because it is advantageous for him to be UFA again at 32, instead of 34.5 x $5.5 million.Get it done.

    Sign Petry, and trade for Coburn.Buyout Ference.Nikitin is the #7 pressbox D.Nurse starts in AHL.

    Coburn, Petry
    Klefbom, Schultz
    Marincin, Fayne
    Nikitin

    I could get on board with this if it were an option… that’s a nice d-core

  34. Unicorns says:

    Rondo:
    Seabrook turns 30 in April, Oilers are years away from the playoffs.

    I think the Oilers are 3 smart moves away from playoffs. The narrative is that the west is impossible but of the 3 teams in now, one is riding luck and one is old. Are the Oilers that far off the Canucks who are the second wildcard now? A decent predictable goalie, one good D and another decent centre make this a different team. A tall order but not impossible as in the Stars and Isles.

    Hall RNH Pouliot
    Purcell Lander Eberle
    Winnik (UFA 2M) McEichel Yak
    Hendricks XXX Klink
    Pakarinen

    Klef Buf/Seabrook
    MM Petry/Norris
    Nurse Ference

    Not a stacked team and players that will make mistakes, but a pretty good lineup. McEichel because if you look at the schedule 20 more points is a realistic guess given the comp, unless the Yotes sell the whole team they’ll still be 28th. 29th overall. It’s not impossible even dealing a couple of players.

  35. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    I know that we all heard MacT say the word ‘Bold’ – but maybe he said ‘Bowled’. As in, wearing questionable footwear, eating soggy pizza and drinking bad beer?

  36. Ray says:

    Lowetide: Ha! I have a couple in mind, we’ll see where it goes.

    My suggestions if you’re needing any are OEL, Big Buff, Boychuk, Babcock, Quick, any Staal, and BOLDEST of all, Jeff Petry!

  37. G Money says:

    Auston Matthews ’16:
    I know that we all heard MacT say the word ‘Bold’ – but maybe he said ‘Bowled’. As in, wearing questionable footwear, eating soggy pizza and drinking bad beer?

    I’m G Money and I 100% approve of this theory.

  38. Numenius says:

    Ryan:
    Moose,

    The MacT verbal last week is terrifying for Oilers fans.What makes it worse is that Woodguy pointed out that he’s generally honest and telegraphs his moves.

    I have the hope that McT has learned not to telegraph so much and that he has a wonderful surprise for us that he can’t tell.

    I’m also hoping the surprise is about Johnny Boychuk.

  39. Woodguy says:

    Alpine:
    Woodguy,

    Man what a black comedy scenario that would be. Sign an extension with Chicago, get traded to Edmonton right after.

    No, its done with full knowledge of the trade.

    He’s got a NTC.

    Also,

    For the record I don’t target Seabrook.

    He’s too high event.

    Oilers have enough of those.

    His CA/60 is always too high compared to his team mates (including his most common partner, Keith)

  40. Woodguy says:

    godot10,

    Coburn, Petry
    Klefbom, Schultz
    Marincin, Fayne
    Nikitin

    I like that.

    Realistic too.

  41. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    You target Seabrook because cap trouble makes him available.Somebody good and expensive has to be shipped out by Chicago for value – picks or prospects.

    Some other teams will be in a similar boat – more sellers.

    Because other teams are in cap trouble, the market for that trade is also slim(mer) – fewer buyers.

    Higher than normal supply and lower than normal demand drives prices down.

    Why let Chicago off the hook?Take them to the cleaners.They’ve had their run.

    “Cleaners” might mean you still pay a hefty price for a good player – but the point is, a whole lot less than otherwise.

    Before Seabrook I think Bowman tries to sell off:

    Bickell – $4.5MM 2 more years
    Sharp – $5.5MM 2 more years
    Crawford – $6.0MM 5 more years

  42. Ray says:

    Woodguy:
    godot10,

    Coburn, Petry
    Klefbom, Schultz
    Marincin, Fayne
    Nikitin

    I like that.

    Realistic too.

    Six NHL dmen deep… when was the last time we had a defense group we could say that about?

  43. Melman says:

    Woodguy,

    Do you make a play for Crawford if you’re Edm.?

  44. russ99 says:

    If you thought last weeks’ comments my MacT about the defense were scary, that whole “only 3 new bodies this summer” quote that the other blog is trumpeting goes way off the rails.

    Nice to know we have no intention of competing next year.

    I hope whoever is doing the “forensic review” of MacT is taking note…

  45. Moose says:

    Woodguy:
    godot10,

    Coburn, Petry
    Klefbom, Schultz
    Marincin, Fayne
    Nikitin

    I like that.

    Realistic too.

    Agree. I know Coburn has his warts, but I thought I remembered seeing some analytics work (Eric Tulsky?) that showed Coburn ranked really high at preventing controlled zone entries. Far and away best among Flyer D-men (whatever that’s worth).

    EDIT: Found it…http://www.sbnation.com/nhl/2014/4/9/5592622/nhl-stats-zone-entries-defense

  46. Woodguy says:

    Jon with a good piece on Quick
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2362105-los-angeles-kings-must-face-the-fact-that-jonathan-quick-is-not-an-elite-goalie

    This is why I fear MacT trading good pieces for this below average goalie:

    Money parapgraph:

    He’s played in 131 regular-season games since winning the Stanley Cup in 2012; over that span his total record is a middling 64-45-18, meaning he’s been in the net for one more win than loss despite playing for a team that is demonstrably one of the best in the NHL. His save percentage, a modest 0.910, comes in below the league average.

  47. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Woodguy: Before Seabrook I think Bowman tries to sell off:

    Bickell – $4.5MM 2 more years
    Sharp – $5.5MM 2 more years
    Crawford – $6.0MM 5 more years

    And they let Oduya walk.

  48. spoiler says:

    My thoughts on this are as follows:

    1. Chicago will trade the law firm of Bickell, Sharp and Crawford before they contemplate trading either Seabrook or Hjalmarsson, as I have said in the past.

    2. Seabrook will be a team player and a hometown guy and do what he can to help management through their “cap crisis”. This might mean delaying signing until the cap number for his UFA year is known. This might mean signing a 1 year bridge deal till the cap future is better known. I don’t foresee the negotiations becoming adversarial.

    In other words, I think the possibility Bowfinger goes to market with Seabiscuit is thin, man. Probably anorexic, to steal from Riggs and Murtaugh. We’re tilting at windmills here somewhat, but admittedly it’s not an impossible dream.

    The fear and loathing we should all have is that Crawford is MacT’s hard target. The mission should be more aptly pupilled as search and destroy. Or a fatal attraction because Crawford is no transformer but that cap hit is definitely the strangler. And when this–It’s a deal, it’s a steal, it’s the sale of the fucking century–hits the ticker, we will all die another groundhog day… up at the crack of tequila sunrise, writing vitriol in our rum diaries.

  49. frjohnk says:

    These are the top ten teams that will be in cap hell next year. Closer to the top, farther in hell you are.

    Chicago Blackhawks »
    Los Angeles Kings »
    Boston Bruins »
    New York Rangers »
    Pittsburgh Penguins »
    Minnesota Wild »
    Toronto Maple Leafs »
    Vancouver Canucks »
    St. Louis Blues »
    Washington Capitals »

    My math could be a bit off, but its close. It shows that Edmonton is 15th when it comes to the amount they spend per player next year.

    We are spending $55 million for 18 players if we sign some of the guys like Lander, Klink, Yak, Marincin to value contracts. Schultz to the same contract.
    Still need
    -number 1 goalie
    -number 1 d man
    -number 2 center
    -number 2 RWer

    I’m not sure we have much flexibility, especially if the cap does not go up much, we might be able to plug a few holes, but not all.

    Some teams like Calgary, Colorado, Buffalo and Dallas have ample room to add salary. If they do, they could fast track their teams to being at the top of the pack.

  50. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    OK, If you happen to have read some of my posts over the last few weeks, you know I am on board with this. Seabrook has Alberta ties thanks to his Lethbridge days. He is a coveted top pairing right D.

    I, like Woodguy, think Chicago will trade or let go 4 or so assets before they break up their Keith-Seabrook pair. However, I definitely kick the tires and make sure Bowman knows I’m interested.

    Pittsburgh 1st, Marincin, prospect is the furthest I’d go, and only if, like in the Pronger situation, the Oilers are given permission to talk to Brent first about an extension. Then we go 5 x $6.5M. If the number has to be higher, the absolute max I go is 4 x $7.0M, but no more. I don’t go further on term. I point out to Brent that if he goes 4 x $7.0M, it works to his advantage as he will still be 34 when he is a UFA next. So his next contract after that will be an under 35, contract rather than an over 35, thus giving him more suitors.

    Seabrook and the Blackhawks then have a conundrum: keep him and pay him that kind of money, in which case I say, hey Mr. Bowman, you’re in cap hell, I gladly take Hjalmarsson off your hands (my preferred scenario anyway), or take the package from the Oilers.

    Seabrook > Boychuk at the same money, although Seabrook costs assets. I think he’d make a great mentor for Nurse.
    3-for-1 folks!

    There it is.

  51. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    frjohnk:
    These are the top ten teams that will be in cap hell next year.Closer to the top, farther in hell you are.

    Chicago Blackhawks »
    Los Angeles Kings »
    Boston Bruins »
    New York Rangers »
    Pittsburgh Penguins »
    Minnesota Wild »
    Toronto Maple Leafs »
    Vancouver Canucks »
    St. Louis Blues »
    Washington Capitals »

    My math could be a bit off, but its close.It shows that Edmonton is 15th when it comes to the amount they spend per player next year.

    We are spending $55 million for 18 players if we sign some of the guys like Lander, Klink, Yak, Marincin to value contracts.Schultz to the same contract.
    Still need
    -number 1 goalie
    -number 1 d man
    -number 2 center
    -number 2 RWer

    I’m not sure we have much flexibility, especially if the cap does not go up much, we might be able to plug a few holes, but not all.

    Some teams like Calgary, Colorado, Buffalo and Dallas have ample room to add salary.If they do, they could fast track their teams to being at the top of the pack.

    This is spot on. Dallas, Buffalo, Calgary I’ve been eyeing and worried about. This is why the Oilers, if they are smart, should save $8.25M on their cap:

    Trade Ference $1M retained
    Trade Purcell $1.5M retained
    Buy out Nikitin $1.5M cap hit.
    $4M on the books for them, $8.25M cleared.

    Replace with Seabrook at $5.8M (for next year), Soderberg at $4M, and sign all the RFAs, etc., did the math it comes to $69M and change, including adding a goalie like Enroth for $3M.

  52. Unicorns says:

    Lowetide:
    An item on Hall

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/2/11/taylor-hall-to-whom-it-may-concern

    Agreed. I was on the Seguin bandwagon because he was C and Hall’s style. I think I’d rather have Hall with hindsight because I find Seguin flaky at this point, and I think that matters when the chips are down. But if we read between your lines what comes back?

  53. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Lowetide:
    An item on Hall

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/2/11/taylor-hall-to-whom-it-may-concern

    I went over there because it’s you, but just reading the first few comments has me running back here. What the hell. Why do so many people think that way about Hall? It’s a damn shame. This is why we can’t have nice things.

  54. Woodguy says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: And they let Oduya walk.

    Oduya is having a really bad year.

  55. VanOil says:

    fifthcartel,
    LadiesloveSmid,

    I agree with both of you about the Oilers current lack of speed. But I must admit the thoughts that drove to suggest reacquiring Pääjärvi today were about the boat anchors both Pääjärvi and Lander have had to play with in the there Oilers careers. I recall lots of chemistry between the two and Nelson would also know Pääjärvi well.

    In the grand scheme of things the Oilers/MacT are a stubborn organization that are unlikely to ever change there minds on a player, and if they surprise us and do I sure hope it is Petry first and soon.

  56. VanOil says:

    These BOLD moves conversations suck with out access to Capgeek. Get well soon Mr. Capgeek you are missed.

  57. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    Jon with a good piece on Quick
    http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2362105-los-angeles-kings-must-face-the-fact-that-jonathan-quick-is-not-an-elite-goalie

    This is why I fear MacT trading good pieces for this below average goalie:

    Money parapgraph:

    He’s played in 131 regular-season games since winning the Stanley Cup in 2012; over that span his total record is a middling 64-45-18, meaning he’s been in the net for one more win than loss despite playing for a team that is demonstrably one of the best in the NHL. His save percentage, a modest 0.910, comes in below the league average.

    Remains to be seen, but the shine on Dean Lombardi is darkening.

    When you have 1 bad long term contract, it’s a broken hand

    When you have 2 bad long term contracts, it’s two broken feet

    When you have 3 bad long term contracts, its bilateral femur fractures ( which is “load and go” or you die)

    Brown until 2022 with a 5.8M cap hit.
    Quick until 2023 with a 5.8M cap hit.
    Richards until 2020 with a 5.75M cap hit

    Are the 3 worst long term contracts for any team.

    And while not bad now, Carter at 5.2M until 2023 and Gaborik at 4.8M until 2021 wont be nice in a few years when their production tails off.

    They have 13 guys signed for 60 Million next year.
    UFA’s
    Williams, Stoll, Regehr
    RFA’s
    Pearson, Toffoli,Clifford, Jones, Nolan

    EDIT: This is not including Voynov

  58. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk: Remains to be seen, but the shine on Dean Lombardi is darkening.

    When you have 1 bad long term contract, it’s a broken hand

    When you have 2 bad long term contracts, it’s two broken feet

    When you have 3 bad long term contracts, its bilateral femur fractures ( which is “load and go” or you die)

    Brown until 2022 with a 5.8M cap hit.
    Quick until 2023 with a 5.8M cap hit.
    Richards until 2020 with a 5.75M cap hit

    Are the 3 worst long term contracts for any team.

    And while not bad now, Carter at 5.2M until 2023 and Gaborik at 4.8M until 2021 wont be nice in a few years when their production tails off.

    They have 13 guys signed for 60 Million next year.
    UFA’s
    Williams, Stoll, Regehr
    RFA’s
    Pearson, Toffoli,Clifford, Jones

    Yup.

    And they probably miss the playoffs this year.

    I have WIN hanging on and MIN beating them out.

  59. Unicorns says:

    Pajaarvi is in the unfortunate position of not having offense and not wanting to play rough. His future is in Europe where his abilities will make him a top player. Unless of course he has a change of heart.

    Wasted pick because it was known he was shy on offense and aggression even if he was ranked 10. You shouldn’t draft bottom 6 forwards in the top 10 of the draft. It makes no sense that they drafted him to me because they don’t like ‘soft’ players. Like LT said about them drafting college D, they prefer CHL types on the NHL roster.

  60. frjohnk says:

    Unicorns:
    Pajaarvi is in the unfortunate position of not having offense and not wanting to play rough. His future is in Europe where his abilities will make him a top player. Unless of course he has a change of heart.

    Wasted pick because it was known he was shy on offense and aggression even if he was ranked 10. You shouldn’t draft bottom 6 forwards in the top 10 of the draft. It makes no sense that they drafted him to me because they don’t like ‘soft’ players. Like LT said about them drafting college D, they prefer CHL types on the NHL roster.

    That’s funny, cause I was just looking at the scouting report from some services for 2009 and they suggested a “young Hossa” when mentioning Pajaarvi.

    Just looking at our 4 top picks from 2009 to 2012 and who they were sort of compared to.

    2009. Paajarvi compared to Hossa
    2010. Hall compared to Marleau
    2011. RNH compared to Weight
    2012. Yakupov compared to Bure

    What happened is that we got this.

    2009. Marcel Hossa.
    2010 Patrick Marleau
    2011 Doug Weight
    2012 Valeri Bure

    We got the wrong Hossa and Bure!

  61. Jon K says:

    I think Chicago isn’t interested unless Klefbom is on the table.

    Other teams would likely be willing to part with a better defense prospect than Marincin and Chicago would want someone coming back to at least partially fill Seabrook’s role.

  62. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    Woodguy: Oduya is having a really bad year.

    What’s his Howson/60 so far?

  63. sliderule says:

    How have Islanders and Flames gone from near bottom last year to were they are today.

    Islanders.
    Added Boychuk Leddy Kulemin and Halak
    Lost. Vanek and Moulson

    Goals for improved by .4/gm and Ga improved by .4.

    Flames
    Added Raymond , Goudreau and Hiller
    Lost Cammelleri

    Goals for improved by .20 and Ga by .66

    the Islanders added a goalie ,two good defence and a forward while losing one of their highest scoring forwards .The offence got A little better and the defence about same .

    The flames added two forwards who played well but neither as well as Cammelleri.Hiller has played well but Ramo played pretty well the year before.

    I would say that if the oilers could add a starting goalie and a defenceman like Seabrook they might have similar results.

    I know take off the rose coloured glasses but it can’t be that hard.

  64. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: Yup.

    And they probably miss the playoffs this year.

    I have WIN hanging on and MIN beating them out.

    Calgary plays them tomorrow night.

    That could be a very hotly contested game given that the Flames have, in some sense, taken the Kings’ spot this year.

    At the beginning of the season I had the Flames or Oilers needing to beat out the Coyotes to get within hailing distance of a playoff spot.

    I hadn’t anticipated the Sharks, Coyotes, Kings and Oilers all pulling off to the shoulder and letting the Flames pass on the left. Going to take a look at that when the season wraps up.

  65. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: but just reading the first few comments has me running back

    You have to really psyche yourself up for reading comments at ON. But at least you can kick the trashcan around while you’re there.

    I feel sorry for the writers, who have to put in an appearance in the comments section and respond.

  66. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    sliderule:
    How have Islanders and Flames gone from near bottom last year to were they are today.

    Islanders.
    Added BoychukLeddy Kulemin and Halak
    Lost.Vanek and Moulson

    Goals forimproved by .4/gm and Ga improved by .4.

    Flames
    Added Raymond ,Goudreauand Hiller
    LostCammelleri

    Goals for improved by .20 and Gaby .66

    the Islanders added a goalie ,twogood defence and a forward while losing one of their highest scoring forwards .The offence got A little better and the defence about same .

    The flames added two forwards who played well but neither as well as Cammelleri.Hiller has played well but Ramo played pretty well the year before.

    I would say that if the oilers could add a starting goalie and a defenceman like Seabrook they might have similar results.

    I know take off the rose coloured glasses but it can’t be that hard.

    Re: the Isles, you’re missing + Grabovski and also it’s tough to double count Moulson and Vanek as missing since the former was traded away for the latter before Vanek was then traded away. So I think you count one of them as gone but not both in terms of what the team net added since last year.

  67. RexLibris says:

    sliderule:
    How have Islanders and Flames gone from near bottom last year to were they are today.

    Islanders.
    Added BoychukLeddy Kulemin and Halak
    Lost.Vanek and Moulson

    Goals forimproved by .4/gm and Ga improved by .4.

    Flames
    Added Raymond ,Goudreauand Hiller
    LostCammelleri

    Goals for improved by .20 and Gaby .66

    the Islanders added a goalie ,twogood defence and a forward while losing one of their highest scoring forwards .The offence got A little better and the defence about same .

    The flames added two forwards who played well but neither as well as Cammelleri.Hiller has played well but Ramo played pretty well the year before.

    I would say that if the oilers could add a starting goalie and a defenceman like Seabrook they might have similar results.

    I know take off the rose coloured glasses but it can’t be that hard.

    The Flames got lucky. Very lucky.

    Raymond has had a negligible impact on the team this year.

    Hiller is stealing them games and they have been exceedingly fortunate with their blueline scoring and depth players having career years.

    A fan today suggested that Lance Bouma was a top six forward. That is the degree to which their depth players have skewed expectations.

    As I mentioned above, a lot of teams appear to have pulled off the road and while Hartley coaches an aggressive style that plays well to the Flames’ strengths, they’ve been impossibly fortunate in the sv%, then sh%, then depth player impacts, all in turn.

    Look at the possession metrics and it aligns relatively well with the standings with one glaring exception: Calgary Flames.

    They are this year’s Avalanche.

  68. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Unicorns:
    Pajaarvi is in the unfortunate position of not having offense and not wanting to play rough. His future is in Europe where his abilities will make him a top player. Unless of course he has a change of heart.

    Wasted pick because it was known he was shy on offense and aggression even if he was ranked 10. You shouldn’t draft bottom 6 forwards in the top 10 of the draft. It makes no sense that they drafted him to me because they don’t like ‘soft’ players. Like LT said about them drafting college D, they prefer CHL types on the NHL roster.

    I still see his ceiling as this guy that was kind of useful in 2006. Radek Dvorak. I would love Paajarvi back on this team in a 3rd line role. He was speedy, minimal scoring (when he was here), no rough play. I don’t mean the Dvorak that put up 30 goals, but the one that was more like 15 goals but provided terrific defensive play and speed.

  69. supernova says:

    Woodguy:
    Moose,

    Surprised at some of the responses here. Love the player, but Oilers are not deep enough system-wide to be giving up multiple mid to high level assets for ONE year of Brent Seabrook. Anybody think he signs an extension here?

    Supernova stipultated that you pay that much if he signs an extension before the trade, so its multiple years of Seabrook.

    Moose,

    Woodguy,

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Thanks Woodguy, I should have stated more clearly you only do the deal if an extension is signed.

    It is what I meant.

    One of the big reasons I advocate for Seabrook is the amount of playoff games he has played, mixed with the type of personalities he has been around, and to the fact that Chicago was also a bottom end team his first few years.
    He seen a different mix of personalities come aboard, he assisted watched, lead and was also lead on the path.

    Let’s compare him to other assets we can try to acquire.
    Let’s use Johnny Boychuk and Dustin Byfuglien.

    Both also won cups and are arguably not that far behind in terms of being a #1, #2 or #3 D man.
    Date of birth
    84 Boychuk
    85 Buff
    85 Seabrook

    Games played & points

    Boychuk 365 & 79 playoff & 100 regular season points
    Buff 584 & 39 playoff & 336 regular season points
    Seabrook 735 & 89 playoff & 312 regular season points

    The longest term any of them has left is one year past this year. It could be argued they will sign comparatively close contracts in both term and dollars.

    Then we can discuss playing styles and intangibles. They are all right shot for comparison.
    They are all 6-2 and 220lbs or larger.
    They can all play the PP. Buff is the most offensively gifted of them. But all have skills.
    They all provide a skill set that management likely feels Petry doesn’t.
    They can all provide 20 + minutes for the Oilers.

    If we have 3 fairly comparable D in size, age, and salary. I pay extra for the one who brings the most intangibles to a younger group of players.

    The Oilers are in desperate need of a multi- talented Defenseman that has experienced that can allow younger FWDs, D, and not a true #1 goalie to break into the league.

    The package I would trade for Seabrook is a 3 or 4 for 1, if he was signed longer term.
    If I could get the deal for 4 year term that would be ideal but that is unlikely. Why would a 31 year old FA sign for 4 years?

    The fact is we need a minute munching D that can play PP & Hopefully PK. These types of D are hard to get and you either Overpay in assets, in term, or in dollars or all of the above.

    I am also a believer in overpaying for an asset you know that you need. It isn’t even a question.

    I would move a lot of assets for a top 2 D, a top 2 Center and a veteran #1 goalie.

    3rd and 4th liners are easier to replace.

    If Marincin, Yakimov and Roy and Pittsburgh 1st get me one of those 3 huge needs. I do it, if their is term on the deal, ideally 4 years or less.

    I am tired of trying for singles and doubles, I want triples, home runs, and grand slams.

    On the same note. If Oilers draft #3 overall, I offer my whole draft for #1 or #2 overall to get eichel or McDavid.

    Maybe I am nuts but I am must be to be a Oiler fan this long.

  70. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    RexLibris: The Flames got lucky. Very lucky.

    They are this year’s Avalanche.

    Careful your readership doesn’t come over hear and read that, Rex!

    P.S., liked your Petry article, especially the LT-style dialogue with yourself (or rather, the inner monologue of a Flames fan).

  71. sliderule says:

    frjohnk,

    I didn’t hear the Hossa comparison but I heard the Bure one which was from Scotty Bowman.

    I did read that MPS had trouble scoring and needed to be more aggressive.

    Like most of you I had barely seen them prior to draft but you didn’t have to watch these players very long in oilers silk to realize all the comparisons were ridiculous

  72. RexLibris says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: You have to really psyche yourself up for reading comments at ON. But at least you can kick the trashcan around while you’re there.

    I feel sorry for the writers, who have to put in an appearance in the comments section and respond.

    I’ve enjoyed engaging some of the commenters over at FN.

    I don’t post at ON much now, they have a strong stable of writers and there’s just not much I can contribute that hasn’t been said, and better, by others.

    All that being said, there are times where you exercise a thick skin and remind yourself that not everyone is going to have the same reaction to something you’ve written.

    I try to communicate with them, establish a dialogue. If that doesn’t work I try to keep the level of discourse high and at the very least establish our areas of disagreement.

    For the most part the mods are good and the crowds behave themselves. Some good people there, they can keep you on your toes.

  73. jp says:

    Unicorns:
    Pajaarvi is in the unfortunate position of not having offense and not wanting to play rough. His future is in Europe where his abilities will make him a top player. Unless of course he has a change of heart.

    Wasted pick because it was known he was shy on offense and aggression even if he was ranked 10. You shouldn’t draft bottom 6 forwards in the top 10 of the draft. It makes no sense that they drafted him to me because they don’t like ‘soft’ players. Like LT said about them drafting college D, they prefer CHL types on the NHL roster.

    He certainly wasn’t rough and tumble, but I don’t know about this lack of offense talk, at least on draft day.

    In his draft year he had the most points of any Jr aged player in Sweden: 50-7-10-17 (for comparison Filip Forsberg scored 43-8-9-17 in the Swedish 2nd league). Draft year he also went 6-6-6-12 at the U18s and 6-2-5-7 at the U20s. Then he scored 18-7-9-16 at age 19 and 20 at the Sr world championships with 2 medals and 1 all-star team (http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=6014).

    He hasn’t gotten much traction in NA, but there was offense there on draft day and after. Whether it will ever translate, I don’t know, but I’d love to see him back in Edmonton in a 3rd line role. And it wasn’t a poor draft pick imo.

  74. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    sliderule:
    frjohnk,

    I didn’t hear the Hossa comparison but I heard the Bure onewhich was from Scotty Bowman.

    I did read that MPS had trouble scoring and needed to be more aggressive.

    Like most of you I had barely seen them prior to draft but you didn’t have to watch these players very long in oilers silkto realize all the comparisons were ridiculous

    I also remember Pierre McGuire: “Be excited Oiler fans, this guy is ready now. In fact, he should be on the Oilers right now!” at the World Juniors.

    Sigh…

  75. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    jp: He certainly wasn’t rough and tumble, but I don’t know about this lack of offense talk, at least on draft day.

    In his draft year he had the most points of any Jr aged player in Sweden: 50-7-10-17 (for comparison Filip Forsberg scored 43-8-9-17 in the Swedish 2nd league). Draft year he also went 6-6-6-12 at the U18s and 6-2-5-7 at the U20s. Then he scored 18-7-9-16 at age 19 and 20 at the Sr world championships with 2 medals and 1 all-star team (http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=6014).

    He hasn’t gotten much traction in NA, but there was offense there on draft day and after. Whether it will ever translate, I don’t know, but I’d love to see him back in Edmonton in a 3rd line role. And it wasn’t a poor draft pick imo.

    Thank you. Agreed.

  76. RexLibris says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Careful your readership doesn’t come over hear and read that, Rex!

    P.S., liked your Petry article, especially the LT-style dialogue with yourself (or rather, the inner monologue of a Flames fan).

    Okay, the dialogue with the Flames fan was NOT INNER!

    *ahem*

    Sorry, just want to make it clear, in no uncertain terms, that within my beating heart there resides no shred, not even a shadow, of anything resembling a Flames fan.

    Thanks for the compliment. I used the dialogue to try and head off some of the initial reaction that I expected to come at me and facilitate the explanations while defusing any knee-jerk emotional responses.

    The readers there know what I’ve argued about the Flames.

    I’ve done two RE updates now in addition to the initial estimate.

    We’ve had that battle and will undoubtedly again.

    It isn’t all smoke and mirrors, but they’ve been sitting on an unhealthy number of horseshoes this season.

    I hope they make the playoffs because it would give us a real-life chance to run the experiment of “unsustainable analytics” against the higher-pressure, repeatable exercise playoff format.

  77. sliderule says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

    Good catch on Grabovski .

    I forgot him and as he is well down on their scoring I missed him when looking at their stats.

  78. flyfish1168 says:

    I would wait till at least September to see how nervous and desperate CAP teams will be before making an offer. Garth Snow did quite well with waiting to get Liddy and Boychuk. Personally I like Hjalmarsson more. He is younger another Swedish D-man, starting his prime years and his contract is worth $4.1 million annually till 2018-19.

  79. Factotum says:

    Before contemplating a trade for a defenseman, don’t the Oilers need to find out what Steve Yzerman thinks of him?

  80. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    RexLibris: Okay, the dialogue with the Flames fan was NOT INNER!

    *ahem*

    Sorry, just want to make it clear, in no uncertain terms, that within my beating heart there resides no shred, not even a shadow, of anything resembling a Flames fan.

    Thanks for the compliment. I used the dialogue to try and head off some of the initial reaction that I expected to come at me and facilitate the explanations while defusing any knee-jerk emotional responses.

    The readers there know what I’ve argued about the Flames.

    I’ve done two RE updates now in addition to the initial estimate.

    We’ve had that battle and will undoubtedly again.

    It isn’t all smoke and mirrors, but they’ve been sitting on an unhealthy number of horseshoes this season.

    I hope they make the playoffs because it would give us a real-life chance to run the experiment of “unsustainable analytics” against the higher-pressure, repeatable exercise playoff format.

    Since I have long lost my standings bet from before the season on Edmonton vs. Calgary, I do hope they make the playoffs, thereby ensuring no chance of McDavid, then get swept in 4.

  81. wheatnoil says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”: Since I have long lost my standings bet from before the season on Edmonton vs. Calgary, I do hope they make the playoffs, thereby ensuring no chance of McDavid, then get swept in 4.

    I hope they just miss the playoffs and win the lottery, so that Burke can walk up to the podium and announce… “With the first overall selection, the Calgary Flames are proud to select… Lawson Crouse!”

  82. G Money says:

    Totally unrelated:

    FINALLY CRACKED THE CORSI TIME AND LOCATION DATA NUT!

    *** For programming geeks only ***

    Not that anyone is actually likely to care, but in case you ever want to crunch the same data, you can access full NHL game event data here:

    Event data: http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/%s/PL02%04d.HTM

    where %s = season such as “20082009” and %04d is the 4 digit game number (from 1 to typically 1230 in a full season). Easiest way I could find is to parse the HTML for tables with the class set to “evenColor” and pull the data from the data columns (td) therein.

    Problem is, the event data has everything BUT the x,y coordinate data.

    For that, you have to parse a JSON object that can be found here:

    http://live.nhl.com/GameData/%s/%s02%04d/PlayByPlay.json

    where first s% is the 8 character season, the second %s is the first four characters of the season, and the %04d is the 4 digit game number as above.

    To access the actual list of events with x,y coords in Python, you have to load then index the JSON object thusly:

    jsonobj[‘data’][‘game’][‘plays’][‘play’] – gives you the list of events, each event is a dict, dict has fields indexed by the data field e.g. ‘type’, ‘time’, ‘desc’, etc. Just crazy.

    Way harder to find and way harder to get then it should be.

    Bonus points: the event ids between the two data sources are incompatible, so you have to manually reconcile the events using type and time.

    Man.

    If I was still programming professionally, I’d be way more pissed!

    In any case, if you do actually ever need this data, I’m pulling it all into a CSV file (going back to 2008). Every event from the play by play of every game, plus x,y!

    I’ll make that freely available once its done.

  83. Auston Matthews '16 says:

    RexLibris: not everyone is going to have the same reaction to something you’ve written.

    Nothing wrong with a differing viewpoint, that’s actually a good thing. Crazy assumptions and wild accusations, on the other hand…

  84. Lowetide says:

    G Money: Very cool!

  85. G Money says:

    Lowetide:
    G Money: Very cool!

    See, that’s what’s awesome about your site – I can totally redline my inner geek … and here, it’s cool!

  86. jp says:

    G Money,

    I’m never going to access the raw data, but that is pretty cool.

  87. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: That’s funny, cause I was just looking at the scouting report from some services for 2009 and they suggested a “young Hossa” when mentioning Pajaarvi.

    Just looking at our 4 top picks from 2009 to 2012 and who they were sort of compared to.

    2009. Paajarvi compared to Hossa
    2010. Hall compared to Marleau
    2011. RNH compared to Weight
    2012. Yakupov compared to Bure

    What happened is that we got this.

    2009. Marcel Hossa.
    2010 Patrick Marleau
    2011 Doug Weight
    2012 Valeri Bure

    We got the wrong Hossa and Bure!

    Napoleon: Yes!

  88. El Duderino says:

    I would say no. Oilers should however concentrate on good drafting, like picking Saad or Jenner before Musil. That really was a no brainer in 2011. But Oiler patronage got in the way again.

  89. cabbiesmacker says:

    El Duderino:
    I would say no. Oilers should however concentrate on good drafting, like picking Saad or Jenner before Musil.That really was a no brainer in 2011.But Oiler patronage got in the way again.

    This 100%

  90. cabbiesmacker says:

    flyfish1168:
    I likeHjalmarsson more. He is younger another Swedish D-man, starting his prime years andhis contract is worth $4.1 million annually till 2018-19.

    Which is exactly why he isn’t going anywhere.

  91. Hammers says:

    LT I see your keeping Schultz and Marincin so it must be Yak & Pits 1st your giving up for Seabrook ? That doesn’t save them enough money so its not the right deal .Oduya is a UFA so he walks away and Sharp needs to go as well as Seabrook so that cuts about 11 Mill plus Odoya ‘s money . Chicago and a few of those other cap straped teams are going to want the Klefboms , Marincins , Landers & Pakirinens . Contracts under $1.2 or so . Only problem is McT needs those players as well . Resign what we have , say bye to Fasth and you have $5 mill for a goalie & maybe $3 left over plus Petrys money for a “D” . That’s it , 2 or maybe 3 new players

  92. SwedishPoster says:

    On MPS I’d argue they brought him over one year too soon. He had shown in spurts he could produce against men, the world championships, short periods in the SHL but he still hadnt had a full season of consistent production in the SHL. With forwards drafted out of Sweden I think you should keep them there until they’ve had a full year where they’re around ppg before bringing them over, let them find their offense, at least if you’re looking at a top six guy. It’s important to remember that a lot of the top swedes start playing against men at 17, in MPS case I think he was 16, usually in a bottom six role and the main focus is put on being defensively sound. It’s a pretty good school for talented guys to become twoway players but it doesn’t leave much room to be offensively creative. As they get more games and seasons under their belt they get more rope and if they have the skill they eventually get the top line chances and start scoring some more. MPS was at that last step but he still hadn’t found his full range and imo needed another year.
    Scoring is about habit, it’s learning by doing and to come into the NHL after having spent the last few years with a main focus on defensive coverage and try to become a top six guy is tough. Even third line production takes offensive comfort.
    Some guys can work past it in the AHL but some more fragile guys like MPS withers. A guy like Lander who is mentally much stronger onthe other hand find a way, but he never had the pressure of a top 10 pick to produce.
    It’s not just about the offense either, it’s about feeling in full control on a lower level before heading to the toughest league in the world. So if you’re bringing a euro over before they’ve been dominant in their home league there need to be an understanding that they will start in the AHL no matter how well they perform in the pre-season.

    Or in lesser words don’t rush players!

  93. spoiler says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Good morning! lol

  94. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    Totally unrelated:

    FINALLY CRACKED THE CORSI TIME AND LOCATION DATA NUT!

    *** For programming geeks only ***

    Not that anyone is actually likely to care, but in case you ever want to crunch the same data, you can access full NHL game event data here:

    Event data:http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/%s/PL02%04d.HTM

    where %s = season such as “20082009” and %04d is the 4 digit game number (from 1 to typically 1230 in a full season).Easiest way I could find is to parse the HTML for tables with the class set to “evenColor” and pull the data from the data columns (td) therein.

    Problem is, the event data has everything BUT the x,y coordinate data.

    For that, you have to parse a JSON object that can be found here:

    http://live.nhl.com/GameData/%s/%s02%04d/PlayByPlay.json

    where first s% is the 8 character season, the second %s is the first four characters of the season, and the %04d is the 4 digit game number as above.

    To access the actual list of events with x,y coords in Python, you have to load then index the JSON object thusly:

    jsonobj[‘data’][‘game’][‘plays’][‘play’] – gives you the list of events, each event is a dict, dict has fields indexed by the data field e.g. ‘type’, ‘time’, ‘desc’, etc.Just crazy.

    Way harder to find and way harder to get then it should be.

    Bonus points: the event ids between the two data sources are incompatible, so you have to manually reconcile the events using type and time.

    Man.

    If I was still programming professionally, I’d be way more pissed!

    In any case, if you do actually ever need this data, I’m pulling it all into a CSV file (going back to 2008).Every event from the play by play of every game, plus x,y!

    I’ll make that freely available once its done.

    I am going off memory here, and have no way of checking so maybe someone can tell me if I am deja vu-ing this thru early onset or did Vic F not express similar issues except it wasn’t Python, but still the difficulty with which data could be scraped? Sorry if I sound like an dumbass, this is not my area of expertise, it just rings a bell.

  95. Woodguy says:

    Younger Oil:
    Woodguy,

    Seems like the Oilers have been paying attention to your analysis!

    https://scontent-a-sea.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xfp1/v/t1.0-9/10985586_10153083860207128_6676961413551473565_n.jpg?oh=d36f7fd4e623f29d31763425fe49dd76&oe=5554C703

    #dreamy

    Awesome.

    To be fair its tough to watch Klefbom play and not think that he’s dreamy.

  96. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Totally unrelated:

    FINALLY CRACKED THE CORSI TIME AND LOCATION DATA NUT!

    *** For programming geeks only ***

    Not that anyone is actually likely to care, but in case you ever want to crunch the same data, you can access full NHL game event data here:

    Event data:http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/%s/PL02%04d.HTM

    where %s = season such as “20082009” and %04d is the 4 digit game number (from 1 to typically 1230 in a full season).Easiest way I could find is to parse the HTML for tables with the class set to “evenColor” and pull the data from the data columns (td) therein.

    Problem is, the event data has everything BUT the x,y coordinate data.

    For that, you have to parse a JSON object that can be found here:

    http://live.nhl.com/GameData/%s/%s02%04d/PlayByPlay.json

    where first s% is the 8 character season, the second %s is the first four characters of the season, and the %04d is the 4 digit game number as above.

    To access the actual list of events with x,y coords in Python, you have to load then index the JSON object thusly:

    jsonobj[‘data’][‘game’][‘plays’][‘play’] – gives you the list of events, each event is a dict, dict has fields indexed by the data field e.g. ‘type’, ‘time’, ‘desc’, etc.Just crazy.

    Way harder to find and way harder to get then it should be.

    Bonus points: the event ids between the two data sources are incompatible, so you have to manually reconcile the events using type and time.

    Man.

    If I was still programming professionally, I’d be way more pissed!

    In any case, if you do actually ever need this data, I’m pulling it all into a CSV file (going back to 2008).Every event from the play by play of every game, plus x,y!

    I’ll make that freely available once its done.

    Wow!

    Pretty awesome that”

    1) you figured it out
    2) will do it (manually?!?!?!?)
    3) and freely share it.

    You sir, rock.

  97. Woodguy says:

    sliderule:
    How have Islanders and Flames gone from near bottom last year to were they are today.

    Islanders.
    Added BoychukLeddy Kulemin and Halak
    Lost.Vanek and Moulson

    Goals forimproved by .4/gm and Ga improved by .4.

    Flames
    Added Raymond ,Goudreauand Hiller
    LostCammelleri

    Goals for improved by .20 and Gaby .66

    the Islanders added a goalie ,twogood defence and a forward while losing one of their highest scoring forwards .The offence got A little better and the defence about same .

    The flames added two forwards who played well but neither as well as Cammelleri.Hiller has played well but Ramo played pretty well the year before.

    I would say that if the oilers could add a starting goalie and a defenceman like Seabrook they might have similar results.

    I know take off the rose coloured glasses but it can’t be that hard.

    Don’t forget that most (not all, but most) Flames are shooting ~3% above their career average.

  98. Woodguy says:

    Auston Matthews ’16: What’s his Howson/60 so far?

    Probably trending.

  99. Woodguy says:

    Every Flame with 6 goals or more (14 players) and their career SH% vs this year:

    If a player is + then they are shooting over their career number. Lots of short careers in here too:

    Monahan +1.4%
    Hudler + 2.7%
    Gaudreau – rookie – shooting 15.1%
    Wideman +4.9%
    Giordano -0.7%
    Jooris – rookie shooting 16.7% (shot 8% in AHL last year)
    Bouma +7.9%
    Jones -1.2%
    Raymond +3.3%
    Brodie +3.2%
    Glencross +3.9%
    Colburne +2.4%
    Byron +3.6%
    Backlund +4.3%

    So only Gio and Jones are below their career numbers and some rookies are shooting the lights out.

    If your next supposition is “Hartley is coaching to a high SH%”, my next question is :

    Why did he wait until his 3rd year as HC of the Flames to do that?

    Sneaky him, waiting until he needed an extension to pull the SH% inflator out of his bag.

  100. PhrankLee says:

    RexLibris: Look at the possession metrics and it aligns relatively well with the standings with one glaring exception: Calgary Flames.

    And then I look at their record against the Pacific and cannot accept luck. Last I checked it was 12-4-..somethin..

    12 wins and 4 losses in the big bad Pacific.

    If it’s luck I am a cheese goat.

  101. PhrankLee says:

    G Money:
    Totally unrelated:

    FINALLY CRACKED THE CORSI TIME AND LOCATION DATA NUT!

    *** For programming geeks only ***

    Not that anyone is actually likely to care, but in case you ever want to crunch the same data, you can access full NHL game event data here:

    Event data:http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/%s/PL02%04d.HTM

    where %s = season such as “20082009” and %04d is the 4 digit game number (from 1 to typically 1230 in a full season).Easiest way I could find is to parse the HTML for tables with the class set to “evenColor” and pull the data from the data columns (td) therein.

    Problem is, the event data has everything BUT the x,y coordinate data.

    For that, you have to parse a JSON object that can be found here:

    http://live.nhl.com/GameData/%s/%s02%04d/PlayByPlay.json

    where first s% is the 8 character season, the second %s is the first four characters of the season, and the %04d is the 4 digit game number as above.

    To access the actual list of events with x,y coords in Python, you have to load then index the JSON object thusly:

    jsonobj[‘data’][‘game’][‘plays’][‘play’] – gives you the list of events, each event is a dict, dict has fields indexed by the data field e.g. ‘type’, ‘time’, ‘desc’, etc.Just crazy.

    Way harder to find and way harder to get then it should be.

    Bonus points: the event ids between the two data sources are incompatible, so you have to manually reconcile the events using type and time.

    Man.

    If I was still programming professionally, I’d be way more pissed!

    In any case, if you do actually ever need this data, I’m pulling it all into a CSV file (going back to 2008).Every event from the play by play of every game, plus x,y!

    I’ll make that freely available once its done.

    G-man,

    Wow. I learn so much from this blog. Just when I think I am getting the hang of some of these metrics someone comes out with insight or concrete work and I am more than impressed. Humbled and grateful.

    You guys are so smart. If I grow up I want to be you guys.

  102. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    Totally unrelated:

    FINALLY CRACKED THE CORSI TIME AND LOCATION DATA NUT!

    *** For programming geeks only ***

    Not that anyone is actually likely to care, but in case you ever want to crunch the same data, you can access full NHL game event data here:

    Event data:http://www.nhl.com/scores/htmlreports/%s/PL02%04d.HTM

    where %s = season such as “20082009” and %04d is the 4 digit game number (from 1 to typically 1230 in a full season).Easiest way I could find is to parse the HTML for tables with the class set to “evenColor” and pull the data from the data columns (td) therein.

    Problem is, the event data has everything BUT the x,y coordinate data.

    For that, you have to parse a JSON object that can be found here:

    http://live.nhl.com/GameData/%s/%s02%04d/PlayByPlay.json

    where first s% is the 8 character season, the second %s is the first four characters of the season, and the %04d is the 4 digit game number as above.

    To access the actual list of events with x,y coords in Python, you have to load then index the JSON object thusly:

    jsonobj[‘data’][‘game’][‘plays’][‘play’] – gives you the list of events, each event is a dict, dict has fields indexed by the data field e.g. ‘type’, ‘time’, ‘desc’, etc.Just crazy.

    Way harder to find and way harder to get then it should be.

    Bonus points: the event ids between the two data sources are incompatible, so you have to manually reconcile the events using type and time.

    Man.

    If I was still programming professionally, I’d be way more pissed!

    In any case, if you do actually ever need this data, I’m pulling it all into a CSV file (going back to 2008).Every event from the play by play of every game, plus x,y!

    I’ll make that freely available once its done.

    good stuff sir

  103. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Not sure if anyone posted this from last night:
    .@TSNBobMcKenzie says on @TSN1050Radio that the asking price for Cody Franson is apparently a 1st Round Pick and a prospect.

    Like TOR with Cody Franson, CAR believed to be looking for 1st round and a prospect for rental D Sekera. High prices right now.

    Petry for a 3rd?

  104. GCW_69 says:

    Well played Buffalo. If we consider Myers for Bogosian sort of a wash, then dropping Stafford for Kane who is out with injury weakens the forward group. Then acquiring Lindback to weaken the goaltending in the same day.

    These guys are serious. Your move, MacT. Petry? Petry and Gordon? Is ten good games from Lander enough for the Oilers to assume he should replace Gordon rather than complement him? History says yes

  105. GCW_69 says:

    The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”:
    Not sure if anyone posted this from last night:
    .@TSNBobMcKenzie says on @TSN1050Radio that the asking price for Cody Franson is apparently a 1st Round Pick and a prospect.

    Like TOR with Cody Franson, CAR believed to be looking for 1st round and a prospect for rental D Sekera.High prices right now.

    Petry for a 3rd?

    I think it was sportsnet that did thier “who is moving next?” bit last night and they talked about Franson and Several but didn’t even mention Petry. The stink of the Oilers must be strong on him.

    But I don’t see how Sekera gets you a first and a prospect without Petry getting a late first rounder.

  106. Ca$h-Money! says:

    GCW_69,

    It’s always interesting after the trade deadline. We’ve seen in the past a team sell their stars, replace them with AHL players, and actually go on a bit of a run. Over a shortened season, sometimes a combination of luck and the frantic trying-to-earn-a-spot pace of borderline NHLers can produce some surprising results.

    And hey, it’s not like Buffalo can get that much worse. So you never know.

  107. wheatnoil says:

    G Money,

    Impressive work!

  108. The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL" says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    It’s like September call-ups in baseball with the expanded rosters. Guys playing for jobs next year. A lot of them bat really well and get people’s hopes up. Combination of worn-out, end of season pitching plus hungry guys playing for a contract next year results in unsustainable percentages and unrealistic expectations of what they can do over a full season. Seattle Mariners are great at this. I think the Blue Jays do that, too.

    Like that late season run from Brett Lawrie when he first came up. My good friend was singing his praises, how over a full season he’d have 250 hits and 130 RBIs or whatever, and I pointed out his ridiculous BABIP that was unsustainable. as well as the fact RBIs are a really outdated way to value a player. I said he looks like a really good player, but would probably be more like .280/.320/.430 for an OPS of .750 with ~20HRs in a good year with above average defense and how that was extremely valuable for a third baseman if he could reach that level. My friend though that was way worse than what he was already doing so no way that would be his ceiling.

    Next season when he predictably came back down to Earth I went to say I told you so, but I got crickets in response like it never happened.

  109. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    Every Flame with 6 goals or more (14 players) and their career SH% vs this year:

    If a player is + then they are shooting over their career number.Lots of short careers in here too:

    Monahan +1.4%
    Hudler + 2.7%
    Gaudreau – rookie – shooting 15.1%
    Wideman +4.9%
    Giordano -0.7%
    Jooris – rookie shooting 16.7% (shot 8% in AHL last year)
    Bouma+7.9%
    Jones -1.2%
    Raymond +3.3%
    Brodie +3.2%
    Glencross +3.9%
    Colburne +2.4%
    Byron +3.6%
    Backlund +4.3%

    So only Gio and Jones are below their career numbers and some rookies are shooting the lights out.

    If your next supposition is “Hartley is coaching to a high SH%”, my next question is :

    Why did he wait until his 3rd year as HC of the Flames to do that?

    Sneaky him, waiting until he needed an extension to pull the SH% inflator out of his bag.

    2 month Ago?

    Welcome aboard!

  110. G Money says:

    jp,
    spoiler,
    Woodguy,
    PhrankLee,
    frjohnk,
    wheatnoil,

    Thanks, lads. Just to be clear, everything I’ve done so far has been done by folks before (anyone that wants to run one of the heavy duty stats sites will have had to do the same thing). Nothing earth shattering!

    Because I’m experimenting with the temporal aspect of shot metrics, those sites don’t do it for me, I need the raw data. It’s all there at the NHL sites, you just can’t get at it easily for large scale number crunching.

    I’m just surprised that none of the folks who’ve done this before have posted the scripts, or even the information on how they grabbed it. There are a few play-by-play scraper scripts out there (R and Java), but not Python and no info on getting the x,y coordinate data.

    I ended up having to do a bunch of googling to find the URLs, followed by a bunch of manual inspection of the resulting pages to try and suss out the information format, followed by experimentation with parsing scripts before I finally nailed it. (Have to admit, the data coming out is pretty cool!).

    Those scripts will be running over the weekend, pulling down the 7 x 1200 x 2 pbp and event sheets, parsing, and reconciling the pbp with the x,y data to generate the CSV.

    Since the data itself is free, and the investigation work is a bit of a grind, I figure making that stuff available is the right thing to do – we all benefit by having data more easily available.

  111. GCW_69 says:

    Ca$h-Money!: replace them with AHL players, and actually go on a bit of a run.

    You mean like the Oilers are doing right now, except due to injuries rather than trades. Lol

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