DEAR EDMONTON OILERS: SIGN JEFF PETRY

by Lowetide

Craig MacTavish is having a bad year and I think it will cost him his job as Oilers GM. By this time next season, we’ll know the Jeff Petry story better, we’ll know the Justin Schultz signing and we’ll know how he’s addressed the goalie and center positions. Looking back at his last 10 significant transactions, we can see an alarming trend:

  1. January 2014: Traded Devan Dubnyk to Nashville for Matt Hendricks. Dubnyk appears to have recovered from his MacT—Eakins experience and “it’s not you, it’s me” has found an NHL home.
  2. January 2014: Traded a 3rd round pick to Los Angeles for Ben Scrivens. Edmonton’s choice for DD’s replacement played well after arrival but mirrored Dubnyk’s downward spiral this year. The draft pick, Dominic Turgeon, continues to develop in the WHL.
  3. March 2014: Traded a 2014 fifth-round pick and a 2015 third-round pick to Anaheim for Viktor Fasth. He is wildly inconsistent and one wonders about his trade deadline value. The selection, Matthew Berkovitz, is developing in the USHL.
  4. March 2014: Traded Ales Hemsky to Ottawa for a fifth-round pick in 2014 and a 2015 third-round pick. The first selection, Liam Coughlin, is not a promising selection, but the third rounder in 2015 should be a solid prospect.
  5. June 2014: Acquired the rights to Niki Nikitin. MacT takes Howson’s advice and blows his foot clean off.
  6. June 2014: Traded Sam Gagner to Tampa Bay for Teddy Purcell. I was and am fine with this trade. I do think the Oilers, as in the case of Dubnyk, have a terrible habit of flushing their youth for the next big thing from the draft.
  7. July 2014: Signed D Mark Fayne as a free agent. Very pleasing at the time, has not been as good in actual fact.
  8. July 2014: Signed L Benoit Pouliot. A brilliant signing, only the Gordon acquisition a year previous was a better one.
  9. December 2014: Traded Mark Arcobello to Nashville for Derek Roy. This was a very good trade in the short term.
  10. January 2015: Traded David Perron to Pittsburgh for their first-round selection and Rob Klinkhammer. Good to very good value in return for a contract with 1.5 years to go. I’m not sure how it compares to the original Perron trade, we’ll have to see. It seems pretty good. The larger concern is that this once again re-sets the roster and allows management more losses in the name of the damnable rebuild.

So, it is with that recent resume Craig MacTavish, being of sound mind and body, has apparently decided to trade Jeff Petry, sign Justin Schultz in summer and run with a RH blue that includes Schultz and Mark Fayne.

VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER (AFTER 50GP) THE BLUE

vollman sledgehammer feb 15

 

The Oilers have two blue bubbles in the “shut-down” portion of the Vollman graph and they’re apparently trading one of them and don’t like the other guy. I think Craig MacTavish needs to re-think this plan of action, sign Jeff Petry and closely examine the poor performances on this graph.

  • Andrew Ference is not performing well, but is facing the toughest zone-starts and tough opposition. This is perhaps asking too much from him at this stage of his career.
  • Mark Fayne is struggling but as with Ference there’s a reason for it (toughest opposition based on the Vollman, ZS under 5o%).
  • Niki Nikitin is getting a ZS push and has struggled all year long.
  • Justin Schultz is playing in the spots normally reserved for rookies and impact offensive defensemen. He is NOT an impact offensive defenseman at evens (ranks No. 63 at 5×5/60 evens among regular defensemen).

If the Oilers signed Petry?

  • Marincin—Petry
  • Klefbom—Schultz
  • Nikitin—Fayne
  • Ference

The fact Edmonton is apparently focused on trading Jeff Petry suggests to me there is something to the Johnny Boychuk rumors. So it’s wait and see for Oilers fans but I’m quickly coming to the conclusion that we’re going to have to wait for Daryl Katz to tire of losing millions and millions on bad decisions.

It’s time for the Edmonton Oilers front office to grow up and create a model for internal and external player evaluation based on trusting your men in the field, having a central figure suss out the list, using analytics to get an edge  and competing like a mature organization. Sign Jeff Petry, send your fan base some sign of hope for 2015-16.

Sign him today.

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Bank Shot

Woodguy: I understand the smell test.

If you make a list of great Dmen, to a man they do not have a negative corsi despite playing the toughest comp.

Except Weber.

If many Dmen who everyone agreed upon as very good/great had negative RelCor I’d be suspicious of the stat.

But they don’t.

Just Weber for the most part.

Back when he was with Suter they had an excellent RelCor. Was RelCor wrong about him then too?

Pronger in Anaheim in 07/08

Then Niedermayer in 08/09

If a player like Pronger can post a neg rel corsi, then it says more about corsi being a product of coaching than it does about a defenceman’ s ability because we all saw first hand how dominant Pronger was.

Pouzar

Bias Alert. But I really love Yakimov’s positioning. He just knows where to be on the ice at all times. Just a treat to see it in such a young prospect.

Pouzar

C Hamilton intercepts pass in slot and goes shelf.

4-3 OKC

Woodguy

Bank Shot:
The whole Weber is overrated thing is based on using individual corsi to determine a defenceman’s worth.

This is what caused Fayne to be billed a top pairing river pusher last summer and it certainly hasn’t been the case.

There haven’t been any articles published that have come close to definitively proving that individual corsi is the best stat for judging defencemen.

In this case it is so obvious that Weber is one of the very best D-men in the league that it makes more sense to question why a great player can have an average corsi than to question the player’s ability.

I understand the smell test.

If you make a list of great Dmen, to a man they do not have a negative corsi despite playing the toughest comp.

Except Weber.

If many Dmen who everyone agreed upon as very good/great had negative RelCor I’d be suspicious of the stat.

But they don’t.

Just Weber for the most part.

Back when he was with Suter they had an excellent RelCor. Was RelCor wrong about him then too?

LadiesloveSmid

rickithebear:
EVP/60 in (X.xx)
EVG.60 in [x.xx]
Soderberg (2.16) – Fraser [1.23]194.8 min 2.32 GF/60 1.84 GA/60
Lander (2.42) – Fraser (2.42) 124.2 min 2.41 GF/60 1.93 GA/60

Soderberg- Lander – Fraser for a 3rd line.

I think a 3P game against Buffalo and a pretty limited sample size skews these numbers

LadiesloveSmid

Bank Shot:
The whole Weber is overrated thing is based on using individual corsi to determine a defenceman’s worth.

This is what caused Fayne to be billed a top pairing river pusher last summer and it certainly hasn’t been the case.

There haven’t been any articles published that have come close to definitively proving that individual corsi is the best stat for judging defencemen.

In this case it is so obvious that Weber is one of the very best D-men in the league that it makes more sense to question why a great player can have an average corsi than to question the player’s ability.

I don’t know if I’m alone in thinking Fayne was supposed to be a #4 playing 18 minutes a night against top comp. Belongs with a higher end puck moving Dman, ala Andy Greene last year, not Ference or struggling Marincin. Might look good with Nurse down the road

Bruce McCurdy

Craig Button comes up with the exact same comparable I was going to mention for Brendan Leipsic, namely Brad Marchand. Small slippery skilful cheapshotting diving mouthy weasel. but a nice prospect all the same. Toronto got pretty good vakue for 2 expiring contracts.

Bank Shot

The whole Weber is overrated thing is based on using individual corsi to determine a defenceman’s worth.

This is what caused Fayne to be billed a top pairing river pusher last summer and it certainly hasn’t been the case.

There haven’t been any articles published that have come close to definitively proving that individual corsi is the best stat for judging defencemen.

In this case it is so obvious that Weber is one of the very best D-men in the league that it makes more sense to question why a great player can have an average corsi than to question the player’s ability.

Woodguy

leadfarmer,

Keith isn’t an easy minute muncher.

This is the first year that Q didn’t use him in the tougher comp.

That being said look at CHI’s Vollman graph. His comp is still very tough, just getting slightly easier zone starts.

JD_Wry

spoiler: He has left the team and is driving from Winnipeg to Lethbridge

I guess the Rexall biz jet is in for an Oil Change?

Woodguy

8p0intgame: If I am interpreting these numbers correctly, Dustin Byfuglien is comparable to Shea Weber in almost every way. Similar age, size, counting numbers and advanced stats. In fact, Byfuglien has a slight edge in size, points per game and advanced stats over Weber. Weber’s only advantage seems to be that he can play both special teams whereas Byfuglien’s coach only trusts him on the power play.

Therefore, I think it is safe to say that Weber is a little bit overrated and probably won’t be worth his 7 million dollar cap hit until 2026. However, I will admit that I cherry picked the numbers I understood and it appears that Weber faces tougher competition that Byfuglien (but someone else will have to confirm that).

Sounds close (still on my phone)

I want to clarify my point.

Weber is certainly worth a 7MM cap.

My point about Weber is that NAS is due to pay him $38MM in the next 3 years in real money.

A franchise like that would see an opportunity to turn that 38MM in real money (21 in cap over three years) into a few valuable pieces if they had Franson there to take Weber’s minutes for ~ 5.5MM.

He’s not a massive drop off at all from Weber’s production in similar minutes.

They would then probably plug 2 F holes today and get some decent futures.

And still be spending less money and being a better team.

It’s all about efficiently spending the dollars.

leadfarmer

Woodguy: On my phone will do when I get to a PC.

Off the top of my head:

Doughty, Suter, Subban, Gio, Hedman, Buff, Campbell, Keith, Chara (maybe not anymore), Pietrangelo, McDonagh (maybe), … Will find more when I’m at a PC.

Weber make more, (some waaaaaay more) than all those Dmen

Doughty – is a little better
Suter – Prety even. Is having a tough year
Gio – Close
Hedman – A little better
Buff – Would give edge to Weber
Keith – Easy minute muncher. Close but no
Chara – Unless you’ve been frozen the last two years no. Too old
Pietrangelo – Close. Not having as good of year as hoped
McD – No

Giordanos and Hedman’s next contract is not going to be cheap. Kane and Toews set the precedent at 11 mil. These guys are going to get PAID.

Oil2Oilers

spoiler:
Apparently Klinkhammer might not be available tomorrow night. He has left the team and is driving from Winnipeg to Lethbridge for the birth of his first child. Per Principe tweet.

He will be able to see the hospital in Lethbridge 5 minutes out of Winnipeg city limits.

spoiler

Apparently Klinkhammer might not be available tomorrow night. He has left the team and is driving from Winnipeg to Lethbridge for the birth of his first child. Per Principe tweet.

8p0intgame

Report:
Dustin Byfuglien:
DOB: 27/03/1985, Age 29, H: 6’5″, W: 260 lbs., Shoots: Right

Cap hit: 5.2 million until 2015-16 (Byfuglien will be 31 when his contract expires)

2011-12: 66 GP 12-41-53 .803 PPG
AvgTOI/game: 24.08 CF%: 58.2, FF%: 57.1, GF%: 54.4

2012-13: 43 GP 8-20-28 .651 PPG
AvgTOI/game: 24.40, CF%: 55.6, FF%: 54.6, GF%: 53.4

2013-14: 78 GP 20-36-56 .718 PPG
AvgTOI/game: 23.07, CF%: 54.9, FF%: 55.0, GF%: 49.2

2014-15 (to date): 58 GP 14-26-40 .690 PPG
5v5: avgTOI/game: 16.34, CF%: 52.5, FF%: 52.6, GF%: 54.8
5v4: avgTOI/game: 3.60, CF%: 88.5, FF%: 85.8, GF%: 96.2
4v5: avgTOI/game: 1.26, CF%: 17.2, FF%: 20.4, GF%: 11.1%

2014-15 (on pace for): 82 GP 19-37-56

Shea Weber:
DOB: 14/08/1985, Age: 29, H: 6’4″, W: 233 lbs., Shoots: Right

Cap hit: 7.857,143 million until 2025-26 (Weber will be 41 when his contract expires)

2011-12: 78 GP 19-30-49 .628 PPG
AvgTOI/game: 26.17, CF%: 50.3, FF%: 50.9, GF%: 64.5

2012-13: 48 GP 9-19-28 .583 PPG
AvgTOI/game: 25.89, CF%: 50.2, FF%: 51.6, GF%: 50.4

2013-14: 79 GP 23-33-56 .709 PPG
AvgTOI/game: 26.87, CF%: 48.6, FF%: 50.7, GF%: 51.9

2014-15 (to date): 56 GP 13-27-40 .714 PPG
5v5: AvgTOI/game: 19.38, CF%: 49.7, FF%: 50.5, GF%: 62.9
5v4: AvgTOI/game: 2.89, CF%: 87.8, FF%: 88.0, GF%: 94.4
4v5: AvgTOI/game: 2.46, CF%: 8.1, FF%: 8.9, GF%: 11.8%

2014-15 (on pace for): 82 GP 19-39-58

Sources:
Player data (age, height, weight, etc.) from NHL.com.
Contract information from CapGeek.com (on January 20, 2014).
Player stats also from NHL.com
Advanced stats from hockeyanalysis.com.
“AvgTOI/game” was estimated using TOI rounded to the nearest minute divided by number of games played.

If I am interpreting these numbers correctly, Dustin Byfuglien is comparable to Shea Weber in almost every way. Similar age, size, counting numbers and advanced stats. In fact, Byfuglien has a slight edge in size, points per game and advanced stats over Weber. Weber’s only advantage seems to be that he can play both special teams whereas Byfuglien’s coach only trusts him on the power play.

Therefore, I think it is safe to say that Weber is a little bit overrated and probably won’t be worth his 7 million dollar cap hit until 2026. However, I will admit that I cherry picked the numbers I understood and it appears that Weber faces tougher competition that Byfuglien (but someone else will have to confirm that).

Bruce McCurdy

spoiler: Crouse was 0-0-0, EV, 0 PIMs for the game. The Frontenacs only recorded 3 shots after the 1st period, none in the 3rd. Lost 3-0, with an empty netter.

Sounds like the second butt ugly hockey game Lowe & MacT have attended in the last 30 hours.

Bruce McCurdy

Woodguy:

They were about 15 seconds away from going up 3-2 on CHI in 2010 when Kane scored a short handed goal with 14 seconds leftto tie it.(seriously, how the actual fuck does that happen in a playoff game?

First clue: Patrick Kane killing a penalty. Seriously, any shorthanded goal to tie a game in the last minute is almost surely a 5v5 goal with the advantage of no need to gain the red line to shoot it in. Dire circumstances to be sure but not quite hopeless.

Woodguy

TemujinBC:
The Canucks have a decimated D right now (and they looked terrible against the Flames last night).If you`re Jim Benning, you make the call on Petry this instant.

Last rumour mill I saw on Petry included VAN, CGY, MTL, TBY, MIN and coupke others I can’t remember.

TheOtherJohn

Spec wants to know how belligerent he played?

spoiler

From Hofley’s tweets, it looks like Crouse will be suspended later this week for a slash Friday night against Belleville.

spoiler

TheOtherJohn:
Would LOVE to get alone my Konency with our Penguins pick

Konecny went 0-0-0, +1, 0 PIMs.

TheOtherJohn

Would LOVE to get Konency with our Penguins pick

spoiler

spoiler:
Chris Hofley @chrishofley·3h 3 hours ago

Carolina GM Ron Francis and Edmonton’s Kevin Lowe and Craig MacTavish at today’s 67’s game.

Well, that would be a game in which Lawson Crouse is playing (Konecny too).

Crouse was 0-0-0, EV, 0 PIMs for the game. The Frontenacs only recorded 3 shots after the 1st period, none in the 3rd. Lost 3-0, with an empty netter.

spoiler

Chris Hofley @chrishofley · 3h 3 hours ago

Carolina GM Ron Francis and Edmonton’s Kevin Lowe and Craig MacTavish at today’s 67’s game.

Well, that would be a game in which Lawson Crouse is playing (Konecny too).

Woodguy

Gordies Elbow:
Woodguy,

I’d say Petry gets either more money (or do you think he’ll look at a 6 or 7 year contract?)

Which team would take Ference at $2.25m, with him being paid to 2016/2017?

Petry, Fayne, Schultz, and three rookies?

No, with the money you save on Nikitin and Ference you can find a reasonable D in trade.

Lots of players will swap teams this summer.

Most for futures as teams get under the cap.

I’m fin with Klef and Marincin on the team.

Snowman

bill needle:
Think about it from Petry’s point of view. Would you sign a long-term deal with a franchise that’s been nowhere near the playoffs during your entire career with the club? A franchise that has a management with a questionable track record? A team that changes coaches as often as Imelda Marcos changed shoes? A chance to maximize your long-term salary while choosing the city/country you wish to play in?
Once you answer those questions, try not to send those Oilers contract offers directly to the shredder.

That’s not really the point though. Absolutely everyone agrees Petry would be smart to test the market. The problem is that the Oilers haven’t even tried to keep him. They haven’t even given him something to turn down. They’ve basically said, thanks for the memories and good luck in Detroit.

TemujinBC

The Canucks have a decimated D right now (and they looked terrible against the Flames last night). If you`re Jim Benning, you make the call on Petry this instant.

Woodguy

leadfarmer:
Woodguy,

He’s the top defenseman on the team with the best d-corps in the league.He is picked as a top 4 defenseman for Team Canada in the Olympics, the team that has by far the best D-corps.He plays in a market most people don’t watch.But please provide us a list of all the defensemen that are better than him.I’ll go make some popcorn.

On my phone will do when I get to a PC.

Off the top of my head:

Doughty, Suter, Subban, Gio, Hedman, Buff, Campbell, Keith, Chara (maybe not anymore), Pietrangelo, McDonagh (maybe), … Will find more when I’m at a PC.

Weber make more, (some waaaaaay more) than all those Dmen

Woodguy

Gordies Elbow:
Woodguy,

I’d say Petry gets either more money (or do you think he’ll look at a 6 or 7 year contract?)

Which team would take Ference at $2.25m, with him being paid to 2016/2017?

Petry, Fayne, Schultz, and three rookies?

Petry will want a 4 or 5 year contract max so his last big contract is when he’s 31 or 32.

If he goes longer on this one, then next one will be shorter and for less money. His agent knows this.

Nick Schultz is going to play next year.

COL gave Stuart a 2 year extension this year.

See Polak”s contract, Robidas’ contract.

The NHL market for Dmen is far from efficient, especially for vets.

You can trade Ference if you retain salary.

frjohnk

Auston Matthews ’16: “We have had no contract negotiations with the Oilers and we’ve expressed that to Jeff,” said his agent Wade Arnott, who also represents Oilers defenceman Justin Schultz. “We expect Jeff will be dealt by the deadline.”

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/edmonton/Oilers+Petry+likely+dealt+deadline/10815420/story.html?cid=dlvr.it-twitter-ej_oilers

Doesn’t mean they won’t offer a contract in the next two weeks, but it doesn’t look good. You’d think the best defender would have been signing priority #1? Instead we get glowing talk about Triki Niki and Jultzing Matilda.

I meant from an Oiler management perspective.
How much do they value Petry? We don’t really know.
Do they want him? We don’t really know.

And then from a Petry POV.
Does Petry want to be an Oiler? We don’t really know.

Are they waiting until the last minute to try and sign Petry? Do we see an outcome like Smid and Hemsky or have negotiations not come together like with Smyth?

I totally agree with you when you say that priority number 1 should be signing Petry but I’m guessing we are just waiting for the trade now.

rickithebear

EVP/60 in (X.xx)
EVG.60 in [x.xx]
Soderberg (2.16) – Fraser [1.23] 194.8 min 2.32 GF/60 1.84 GA/60
Lander (2.42) – Fraser (2.42) 124.2 min 2.41 GF/60 1.93 GA/60

Soderberg- Lander – Fraser for a 3rd line.

JD_Wry

frjohnk: The thing is that we don’t know what is going on and its all speculation.

“We have had no contract negotiations with the Oilers and we’ve expressed that to Jeff,” said his agent Wade Arnott, who also represents Oilers defenceman Justin Schultz. “We expect Jeff will be dealt by the deadline.”

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/edmonton/Oilers+Petry+likely+dealt+deadline/10815420/story.html?cid=dlvr.it-twitter-ej_oilers

Doesn’t mean they won’t offer a contract in the next two weeks, but it doesn’t look good. You’d think the best defender would have been signing priority #1? Instead we get glowing talk about Triki Niki and Jultzing Matilda.

frjohnk

bill needle:
Think about it from Petry’s point of view. Would you sign a long-term deal with a franchise that’s been nowhere near the playoffs during your entire career with the club? A franchise that has a management with a questionable track record? A team that changes coaches as often as Imelda Marcos changed shoes? A chance to maximize your long-term salary while choosing the city/country you wish to play in?
Once you answer those questions, try not to send those Oilers contract offers directly to the shredder.

If we trade Petry for a 2nd round pick without even offering a contract, I’m pissed.

If we trade Petry for a 2nd round pick after a low ball contract offer, I’m pissed.

If we trade Petry for a 2nd round pick after an acceptable contract offer and he refuses, Im OK with that.

If we sign Petry for good term and good money, I’m happy.

The thing is that we don’t know what is going on and its all speculation. Even the guys in the media don’t know what the Oilers plans are or what Petry’s plans are.

Until I hear that the Oilers make an acceptable offer for Petry, I’m not too happy about this. Unless we hear later that Petry has always wanted to test FA, but everybody has kept this quiet, then I wouldn’t blame management all that much.

Pretendergast

Woogie63:

7) hires the interm coach…with no candidates interviewed

That essentially is the point of an interim coach, you don’t have time to interview other candidates and it’s not permanent. Point made and good list otherwise.

LT where’s the weekend update? One of my favourite articles considering it provides a few bright spots in light of how abysmal the Big club is.

rickithebear

We know 15-16

Hall (24) (6.0) – XXX – Eberle (25) (6.0)
Pouliot (29) (4.0) – RNH (22) (6.0) – XXX
XXX-XXX- Ebere
Hendricks (34) (1.85) – Gordon (32) (3.0) – Purcell (30)(4.5)
Gazdic (26) (0.8) – Pakarinen (24) (.925)
Draisaitl (20) 3.4M
2015 #1 (18-19) 3.4M

Lander (24) RFA
———————————————
Yak (22) RFA
Fraser (25) RFA
Pitlick (24) RFA

Nikitin (29) (4.5) -Fayne (28) (3.625) 2.24 1st comp
Klefbom (22) (1.25) – XXX
XXX – Ference (36) (3.25)
Nurse (20) (1.75M)
Schultz (25) RFA
Marincin (23) RFA

Scrivens (2.3)
XXX
Broissoit (.69)

flyfish1168

The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

Hjalmarsson is probably better than Petry. But Johnny Oduya is better than Ference and the Blackhawk forwards is a country mile better than the Oilers forwards. Hawks coaches better then Oiler coaches. JMHO

bill needle

Think about it from Petry’s point of view. Would you sign a long-term deal with a franchise that’s been nowhere near the playoffs during your entire career with the club? A franchise that has a management with a questionable track record? A team that changes coaches as often as Imelda Marcos changed shoes? A chance to maximize your long-term salary while choosing the city/country you wish to play in?
Once you answer those questions, try not to send those Oilers contract offers directly to the shredder.

rickithebear:
your Chicago:
do keep the D who is +37 last 3 seasons facing 1st comp @ 4.1M for 4 YR
Or the
D who is +38 last 3 seasons facing 2nd/3rd comp @ 5M for 1 year.

For reference Petry is not in Hjarlmasson’s level.

If you’re referring to Seabrook he makes $5.8M. If you read my post again, I talk about how you go and talk to them about Seabrook first, but offer better value for Hjalmarsson.

Look, I agree with your point of view, that’s why I prefer Hjalmarsson. But we both know NHL GMs don’t think that way, and it’s likely Chicago views Seabrook as MORE important to their team than Hjalmarsson, rightly or wrongly.

So what’s wrong with my attempt to target the better player on the better contract because I have no doubt in my mind that most GMs around the NHL would, in a vacuum prefer Seabrook to Hjalmarsson.

It’s an old negotiation tactic to ask about A but really be looking to get B.

And I know Petry isn’t as good as Hjalmarsson, who has a very nice contract.

I feel like you’re talking down to me on this one when we in fact see the same thing. Does MacTavish? Does Bowman? I bet they see things a little bit differently than you and I, who are in agreement here.

rickithebear

your Chicago:
do keep the D who is +37 last 3 seasons facing 1st comp @ 4.1M for 4 YR
Or the
D who is +38 last 3 seasons facing 2nd/3rd comp @ 5M for 1 year.

For reference Petry is not in Hjarlmasson’s level.

Unicorns,

I had a comment up on Friday: https://lowetide.ca/2015/02/13/smokin-aces/comment-page-1/#comment-383655

Near-term we’re seeing the “relief rally,” which is struggling at the moment to get above $53~$55 which was a consolidation zone on the way down. This rally likely doesn’t go beyond $60. We should see some re-tests of the lows back towards $45 again once this ends.

Rip Fan Winkle

Brackenburied:
During previous negotiations it may have become clear that Petry has no intention of signing in Edmonton unless they offer the moon.MacT wouldn’t want to sign an untradeable contract, thus the one year and now we are here. This could somewhat explain no offer being made.
It takes two to tango but MacT wants to waltz and Petry wants to foxtrot.

I’ve only heard Petry say positive things about the Oilers. They’ve chosen to talk him down and doubt him publicly. If he doesn’t want to sign that would be the root issue, how they treat players.

I think LT’s maturity point is right on the money. Everything they do strikes me as immature, has for a while. I can’t think of one thing that is done well or with class except the community things.

Leadfarmer’s comment “If Boychuk wants to come here fine, but that shouldnt exclude Petry from being re-signed. Walk away from Schultz, Nikitin, Ferrence, Fayne, Purcell to find the money” hits the matter at heart. It’s time to grow up and treat everyone more professionally, which includes removing every sub standard player no matter what. It’s better to play rookies than under-performing vets, at least at bats are being given and their is a chance of a positive future outcome.

I try to be hopeful they get it together this summer, but if it happens it’ll be luck. The signs they are giving aren’t the kind we’d need to see. They aren’t going to purge the dross, look at prospects, aid the tank, and load up with better quality in the summer and at the draft like a smart GM would who wanted a better team and understands it’s not magic and fortune and doesn’t take forever to do.

They are signalling again that they are going to lose better players, keep those whose NHL careers are marginal, and play rookies over their heads to shelter older players. They’ll probably resign Roy, and he’s not good enough now, he looks decent because the Oilers are so weak at C. Imagine his play next year deal in hand after a summer off, already fading. It’ll go bad for certain. The only way you take him back is as a pro tryout next camp where he proves he’s got something left. He’ll be available.

Next year they’ll finish higher but will still be far from good. They need a lot more than 3 new faces to be a respectable team. I don’t mean to be negative, I see it as being realistic, they have performed this play 8 or 9 times, I know where we are in the story and I know the ending. It’s the same one, nothing is changed, no new lines, no new main characters.

Maybe the attendance will drop off again and smarten Katz up. How’s oil looking NYC?

Gordies Elbow:
The Artist formerly known as “NYCOIL”,

I could see a long lineup of GM’s looking to get Hjalmarsson’s contract, especially in a flat cap era.

What do you think Edmonton would have to move to get him?

Also, for Petry and Soderberg, what would the term of their contract be? What would the team look like in 2016-2017?

Soderberg has been in a situation where he has bounced around, had a scary eye injury, and will be looking for stability. I think 3 years x $4M would be ample for him. He’s only making $1M now! Either that or if he wants 4 years, you drop the cap hit to $3.6M or so.

As for Hjalmarsson, I agree, but there aren’t too many teams out there that can take on $4.1M and give Chicago premium picks and prospects back. Chicago needs the cap space so another player back doesn’t really work for them. I added to my post above, but something around Pittsburgh’s 1st + a strong prospect should get them talking,especially if the returns out there on Bickell, Sharp aren’t great (one is overpaid, the other is getting older and more fragile).

Edit- on Petry. I actually wonder if he doesn’t want a shorter term so he can get another, potentially bigger pay day when he is 30? I’d give him some options:
5 x $4.5M, 4 x $4.7M, 3 x $5M

I think using Stralman as a comparable makes sense. They should have done that last summer.

As good as he is for us, he doesn’t have the box cars to get a massive pay day. I can’t see any team going above $5.5M per to be honest.

If he takes the latter option, he can be a coveted free agent again in 3 years when the cap should probably be going up again.

He could get a $6M+ contract at that point and if he wants to go “home” to Detroit or whatever then, he can.

rickithebear

Under Nelson we played 19 games were we are 2.78 GA/gm
2 TOR and OTT 15 G against on CBC.

I like a Nelson Coache dream without .49 GD/gm

we get 19 gm averaging 2.29 GA/gm

I suspect we are more competitive.

Gordies Elbow

The Artist formerly known as "NYCOIL",

I could see a long lineup of GM’s looking to get Hjalmarsson’s contract, especially in a flat cap era.

What do you think Edmonton would have to move to get him?

Also, for Petry and Soderberg, what would the term of their contract be? What would the team look like in 2016-2017?

rickithebear

Liepsic last CHL year says:
30 EVP 17 PPP NHLE

iepsic in AHL
47gm 4 EVG 15 EVA .40 EVP/gm in offensive role @ 20
47 gm 3 PPg 13 PPA .34 PPP/gm

Yakimov in Oftensive role
.80 EVP/gm