WAR’S GREATEST HITS

The Edmonton Oilers have some nice things coming down the pipe in terms of defensive help. New arrival Oscar Klefbom will be joined by Darnell Nurse in the next 12-24 months and the second tier includes men like Martin Marincin (who is really first tier), Dillon Simpson, Joey Laleggia (should he sign) and others. The key is to find an NHL veteran to protect and mentor these kids as they matriculate towards becoming established NHL defenders. It would also help if they could find a goalie who can stop 92% of the shots that are directed at him.

MY SHOPPING LIST

  1. G Martin Jones, Los Angeles Kings: He narrowly beats out Antti Raanta because Jones’ resume is so consistent. The least successful season he’s had as a pro is this one and it’s still good. I understand this is shopping at the same store as a year ago but I don’t believe flushing Ben Scrivens is a good idea either. Devan Dubnyk recovered, so can Ben.
  2. D’s Andrej Sekera and Patrick Wiercioch: If MacT is serious about Klefbom—Schultz and Ference—Nikitin, then the team badly needs a strong, strong top pairing/shut down option. Sekera—Fayne might be that duo and Wiercioch will be needed when the veterans fail.
  3. L Matt Beleskey: A solid even-strength scorer who could play up and down the lineup (Oilers top two LW’s, Hall and Pouliot, had a hard time staying healthy this year), he can clearly deliver on a skill line.
  4. C Derek Roy: He’s helping Yakupov and that’s no easy task. Much has been made about Roy’s WOWY number but he’s 50% away from Yakupov for the year (including all games) so I’m hopeful they sign him and commit to the young Russian (MacT’s comments in this regard are very encouraging).

PROJECTED LINEUP

LEFT WING CENTER RIGHT WING
TAYLOR HALL RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS JORDAN EBERLE
BENOIT POULIOT DEREK ROY (added) NAIL YAKUPOV (rfa)
MATT BELESKEY (added) ANTON LANDER (rfa) TEDDY PURCELL
MATT HENDRICKS BOYD GORDON ROB KLINKHAMMER
LUKE GAZDIC   TYLER PITLICK (rfa)
 
LEFT DEFENSE RIGHT DEFENSE
ANDREJ SEKERA MARK FAYNE
OSCAR KLEFBOM JUSTIN SCHULTZ (rfa)
PATRICK WIERCIOCH NIKI NIKITIN
ANDREW FERENCE  
  GOALIE  
  MARTIN JONES  
  BEN SCRIVENS  

I like the forward group and am encouraged by the additions of Sekera and Wiercioch. Klefbom—Schultz will get the offensive push so that means a great reliance on Fayne and the new hire when the tough times arrive. The third pairing waits for Nurse and maybe Nelson figures out a way for MacT to retain Marincin. It’s going to be about the defense and goaltending again, I’ve decided that going low cost in Jones is better than investing a pile of Katz dollars on Antti Niemi. We wait.

pitlick ferguson 1415

SECOND ROUND PICKS (UPDATED)

The Edmonton Oilers are likely to turn over much of their amateur scouting department this summer and one of the major reasons is the second round. Scott Cullen‘s great work on draft results tells us that a pick between No. 31-60 has about a 36% chance of playing 100 or more NHL games. He also tells us the ‘average rating’ for these players is ‘very good minor league’ player, which is a ‘3’ on the chart. Using Cullen’s 1-10 ranking (which is basically the one this blog has used forever) we can conclude that (so far) Stu MacGregor’s picks are trending thusly:

  • 2008: No second round selections
  • 2009: Anton Lander (116 NHL games and fringe NHL, that’s a ‘4’ on the Cullen list)
  • 2010: Tyler Pitlick (24 NHL games and minor league player, that’s a ‘2’ on the Cullen list)
  • 2010: Martin Marincin (67 NHL games and fringe NHL, that’s a ‘4’ on the Cullen list)
  • 2010: Curtis Hamilton (0 NHL games and minor league player, that’s a  ‘2’ on the Cullen list)
  • 2011: David Musil: (0 NHL games and minor league player, that’s a ‘2’ on the Cullen list)
  • 2012: Mitchell Moroz: (0 NHL games and minor league player, that’s a ‘2’ on the Cullen list)
  • 2013: Marco Roy: Junior player and the clock hasn’t started yet.

So, the report card at this point in the 2014-15 season has two players who rank as fringe NHL players and in the case of Lander I think we might be able to move him up to NHL regular (a ‘5’) by season’s end. Interesting. Cullen’s ‘line in the sand’ of 100 games (and 36% success rate) implies the Oilers should get 2.52 Lander’s from this list. They already have one (Lander) and Martin Marincin is 33 games away. What are the odds that MacGregor’s second round selections cover the bet?

Now, a secondary question: Did the forensics ever tell us who made the final decision on the Musil selection? Moroz? Were these ‘bpa’ or ‘need’ selections? Who in the organization would be most likely to make a ‘need’ selection, the GM or the scouting director? The Edmonton Oilers biggest problem in regard to scouting, and I’ve said this before, is they can’t fire Steve Tambellini again. That’s my opinion. I’m still cheering like hell for Musil and Moroz by the way, at no point was it their fault the Oilers selected them in the second round. They delivered quality draft seasons and were rewarded. Let’s make absolutely sure we separate the two, because it is completely unfair to punish the player in this instance.

wood44

 LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

This morning at 10, TSN1260. BIG show, lots of fun!

  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon! Oilers spring, baseball!
  • Corey Graham, Oil Kings PBP! The club is playing well enough to push Kootenay for the top wild card spot. Can they catch them?
  • Antony Bent, Everton Fan! My co-host for the new Soccer Sunday show, beginning first Sunday of April. WHY is he an Everton fan? Can he stop?
  • Jeff Hauser, Radio Hauser. The Philadelphia Eagles are scaring me.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide_ on twitter. This is going to be a blast!

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104 Responses to "WAR’S GREATEST HITS"

  1. Yeti says:

    Did the same decision making process that put a 3rd rounder down on Cameron Abney in 2009 use the 2nds on Musil and Moroz? Is there no effective institutional learning going on?

  2. Rondo says:

    LT,

    I think the Oilers should look at NJ goalie Keith Kinkaid.

    Any thoughts LT?

  3. TheOtherJohn says:

    After MacT’s ridiculous press conference I’m not sure a lot of the scouting staff get fired.They should but that applies equally to many (most??) in the organization. The Oiler draft record outside of the 1st round is abysmal particularly as they draft at front of those rounds. Cullen’s projections would not account for that. Klefbom is 2 years away from being capable of being a steady top 4 playoff defender and he’s 22 years old. Like Nurse a lot but expect he’s 3-4 years away from the same type of role.

    As to liking our forward group we have a 29th place team and have extreme difficulty being successful competing against the good teams.

    This team needs a starting goaltender, 2 top 4 D men and a 2C. Wait that’s the same list as last spring

  4. thejonrmcleod says:

    Why doesn’t the show’s fourth guest get an exclamation point?

  5. Bar_Qu says:

    I am starting to believe we will never see the results of this so-called “audit” and that it was merely more flim-flamery to get management past the worst press of the season relatively unscathed. I don’t think the Oilers have earned any more trust in their word than that.

  6. murray says:

    In the goalie hunt I would try to get Anderson out of Ottawa. Offer the Pens 1st and see what else it would take.

  7. slopitch says:

    Looks worse when the range is 31-60 and your picking 31 every time.

  8. frjohnk says:

    I think Anton Lander and Martin Marincin cover the bet, or could even exceed it as good nhl players.

    Curtis Hamilton and Tyler Pitlick were affected by injuries. Injuries during peak development time ( before age 22) can hamper a players ceiling. Pitlick was not a reach pick, as some scouting services had him as a late first rounder.

    David Musil was ranked 38th by ISS in his draft year His skating is what is holding him back. Again not a reach pick.

    Mitch Moroz was a reach pick. Not trending well. But still early.

    Marco Roy is 5 months younger than Moroz. Not trending like how one would want. But still early.

    I think Moroz is the only player that was picked way too early. The rest were OK picks.

  9. Bar_Qu says:

    And the issue in this organization is less drafting than it is development.

  10. justDOit says:

    Bar_Qu: development.

    I think ‘asset management and retention’ has taken a lead down the back straight.

  11. vinotintazo says:

    I’m ok with sekera… but that means about 5M x 4 Years probably… I’d like to keep Marincin, unless we can trade him for immidiate help, as McT chose Klefb over him, and I don’t blame him. We can’t have 3 rookie Defencemens next season here, so probably one of them has to go.

    I’m assuming nurse will finish next season here (will start in the AHL) just like Klefb. and probably will draw in once we trade someone from the 3rd pair @ deadline

    xxxx-Fayne (Shutdown)
    Klef-schultz (Ez Zone)
    Ference – Nikitin (Lottery Pair)
    Marincin (Extra)

    I hope Ference gives up the C, so we can sit him once in a while…

    As much as I like balesky, I think he’s going to be Clarkson-Expensive just because of his Goal Totals…

  12. TheOtherJohn says:

    Cullen’s model has to ignore where in the 2nd round a player is selected. Since 2007 the Oilers have selected in the top 3rd of the draft and most frequently in the top 6 of any given year. The likelihood of success in those slots should be higher than any model that projects the probability of a 2nd rounder playing 100 games as an NHLer.

    Oilers have 2 of their players selected outside 1st round on their R oster. Do not care how anyone tries to rationalize that fact–it’s s giant failure

    Selecting David Musil with notable skating problems 3 years after seeing how problematic that was for A Plante is evidence that the organization are not learning from their mistakes. It’s a fatal flaw

  13. Lowetide says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Cullen’s model has to ignore where in the 2nd round a player is selected. Since 2007 the Oilers have selected in the top 3rd of the draft and most frequently in the top 6 of any given year.

    Actually, Cullen’s system breaks it down but I wanted to be fair. The No. 31 selection has a 34% chance of success, the No. 41 pick 41%. I felt it best to average it to ensure everyone would know I wasn’t cherry picking.

  14. vinotintazo says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    some guys with “skating problems” in recents drafts:

    -Perron
    -Toffoli
    -Monahan

    you have to identify if the “skating problem” can be fixed.

  15. G Money says:

    TheOtherJohn: The likelihood of success in those slots should be higher than any model that projects the probability of a 2nd rounder playing 100 games as an NHLer.

    About a year ago, I did my own massive number crunching exercise to come up with draft success curves.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/4/8/5594876/updating-draft-success-numbers-a-vainglorious-number-crunching

    This is one of the questions I wanted to answer. Rather than assign a fairly blunt per-round number, I generated a specific curve by individual draft position.

    I also separated out draft success by forwards, defense, and goalies.

    Some commenters were offended by the fact that I used a very low cutoff for success. This however was deliberate, because I’m already counting success by games played (whether 1 or 1000, that magnitude is reflected in the data), and I’m already filtering the data by smoothing it, so the need to add an a priori filter is somewhere between unnecessary and harmful.

    In any case, you should be able to combine my curves and use a rule of thumb to assess Cullen’s numbers.

    For example, the average second round success rate (by my numbers) is about 54%, but if you look at the curve, you’ll see that 54% is arrived at by being about 70% for pick #30 and dropping to about 45% by pick #60.

    So you guys who’ve mentioned this point are absiposilutely correct, WHERE you pick in a round makes a huge difference, all e.g. second round picks are not created equal.

  16. G Money says:

    Lowetide: Actually, Cullen’s system breaks it down but I wanted to be fair. The No. 31 selection has a 34% chanceof success, the No. 41 pick 41%. I felt it best to average it to ensure everyone would know I wasn’t cherry picking.

    That being the case, applying the curves I calculated as a rule of thumb over Cullen’s numbers might not be necessary, BUT you can still use them as a rule of thumb to adjust by player type (unless Cullen has also done that!).

  17. Henry says:

    vinotintazo:
    TheOtherJohn,

    some guys with “scating problems” in recents drafts:

    -Perron
    -Toffoli
    -Monahan

    you have to identify if the “scating problem” can be fixed.

    Are you suggesting that they poop their pants?

  18. Hammers says:

    Using the 5 year period for 2nd rd picks put us in the game/rating of 36% Lander & Marincin are NHL players if not here then elsewhere so 2 out of 7 is close to 36% and if Pitlick makes it that’s 3 out of 7 . Lets not forget there are a few other picks beyond 1st that have made the NHL like Reider and I feel there are some players over the last couple of years still with the Barons that will make it . It wasn’t that long ago that McGregor was a magnificent bastard so I say don’t cut him loose . That doesn’t mean scouts should be looked at Every year as they should .

  19. Bar_Qu says:

    justDOit: I think ‘asset management and retention’ has taken a lead down the back straight.

    Quoted for truth

  20. McSorley33 says:

    frjohnk,

    David Musil was ranked 38th by ISS in his draft year His skating is what is holding him back. Again not a reach pick.
    *************************************************************************************
    TSN’s staff had him ranked #41

    ***Will need to improve his skating to make the NHL as a fifth or sixth defenceman**

    Ranked 41st – and taken at #31 – overall.

    That seems like a reach ….especially when you consider there were players ranked right behind Oskar Klefbom – that dropped all the way to the 2nd round.

  21. PaperDesigner says:

    Henry: Are you suggesting that they poop their pants?

    I assumed they frequently burst into musical interludes that followed no particular linguistic pattern.

  22. Shau-co says:

    My feeling is that until we sort out our defensive issues, there is much less importance in bringing in another goalie. I only raise this, because lately too many of the media and bloggers keep listing improving our goalie as a top priority, when really it should be much further down the list.

    There is no goalie that can come in here and save our problems when the quality of shots he would be facing are way too high and frequent.

  23. LoDog says:

    I like your list LT. Don’t think Beleskey will be in the running for any more cy youngs after this season but the rest of the list is solid.

    Don’t wish to re-discuss the possibilities of draft rigging from a couple threads ago but I did want to share this link that does confirm how the draft drawing works.

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/page.htm?id=68856#&navid=nhl-search

  24. Ca$h-Money! says:

    McSorley33:
    frjohnk,

    David Musil was ranked 38th by ISS in his draft year His skating is what is holding him back. Again not a reach pick.
    *************************************************************************************
    TSN’s staff had him ranked #41

    ***Will need to improve his skating to make the NHL as a fifth or sixth defenceman**

    Ranked 41st – and taken at #31 – overall.

    That seems like a reach ….especially when you consider there were players ranked right behind Oskar Klefbom – that dropped all the way to the 2nd round.

    I think the reality of this debate is, like most things, somewhere in the middle.

    Not all reaches are created equal. Was Musil the best player available at 31? Probably not. Was he the smartest by-the-numbers pick? No.

    Was this Mark Jankowski in the first round? Nope.

    This was a reach, rather than a giant leap of faith. We’ve made those leaps in the past, particularly with respect to enforcers and later round second tier league picks (Abney, Hesketh, Muir, the overage BCHLer whose name escapes me).

    Teams are going to reach sometimes, it’s not really worth stressing over unless it’s constant. It’s the leaps, especially outside of the very late rounds, that really bother me.

  25. Unicorns says:

    murray:
    In the goalie hunt I would try to get Anderson out of Ottawa.Offer the Pens 1st and see what else it would take.

    He is turning 34, I wouldn’t pay much for a guy who doesn’t usually play a lot with only decline ahead of him and 4.75 4.75 3.1 still on the books.

  26. Hammers says:

    I still think Marincin will be traded with say Pitts 1st or our 2nd for a “D” player from a cap team and that can be damn near anybody from half a dozen teams .It’s time some of these players both got there chance either here or with another team and that will fall on McT and our pro scouts to make the right decision . I do tend to agree we shouldn’t have more than Shultz & Klefbom ( age ) next year if we are adding Nurse by the trade deadline . The picks we have need to be used wisely .

  27. frjohnk says:

    G Money: About a year ago, I did my own massive number crunching exercise to come up with draft success curves.
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/4/8/5594876/updating-draft-success-numbers-a-vainglorious-number-crunching

    Nice job. Bet that took a while

    One quote
    “•Always take forwards in the first 5 to 10 picks. (I’m looking at you Aaron Ekblad – and then I’m looking away quickly because you are one scary dude)
    •The sweet spot for loading up on D is picks 11 to 30. Not to worry, Darnell, #7 is just fine!

    •The sweet spot for loading up on G is picks 45 to 85”

    I took a look at the D men taken between 2003 to 2010. There were 38 D men taken in that time period in the top 15.

    I separated them into 3 categories.
    big ( over 6 foot 1) good to elite skater
    small ( smaller than 6 foot 1) good to elite skater
    big ( over 6 foot 1) bad to mediocre skater

    I found that if a D man is big ( over 6 foot 1), top 15 pick and has good to elite skating, the chances the player makes it as a top 3 D men are over 75%.

    3 out of the 4 Dmen under 6 foot 1 picked in the top 15 are a top 3 D man
    Thomas Hickey
    Kevin Shattenkirk
    Erik Karlsson
    Ryan Ellis

    0 out of the 10 D men picked in the top 15 from 2003 to 2010 who were big but had skating issues are a top 3 D man. Luke Schenn and Jared Cowan are the best out of this bunch.
    Cam Barker
    Boris Valabik
    A.J. Thelen
    Sasha Pokuluk
    Keaton Ellerby
    Alex Plante
    Luke Schenn
    Colton Tuebert
    Jared Cowan
    Dylan McIlrath

    Picking a D man in the top 15 has a good chance of working out if the D man has good to elite skating. Never pick a D man in the top 15 who has skating issues. It never works out.

  28. Ben says:

    SNAP POLL: who is the best D on a decent term contract or with RFA years left they could get for the 3rd or 4th overall pick?

    (I think Maloney hangs on to OEL through the rebuild, but that idea.)

    EDIT: I’ll say Letang.

  29. SwedishPoster says:

    When are you allowed to start negotiations with pending UFAs? Before the draft? If that’s the case how you act on draft day depends on if you can fill part of your needs in free agency, if they miss out on the top FAs they need to be very active on draft day.

  30. vinotintazo says:

    Hammers,

    who would you target.?

  31. supernova says:

    if we pick 6 times in the first 3 rounds, how many picks should we expect to hit the minimum threshold?

    The top pick
    very good chance on the next pick
    and then roughly 30% on the next four

    So our expectation should be 3 full time NHL players out of the first 6 picks we currently have.

    Do we trust our scouts & management to yield that?

    Do we expect more than that?

    should we be looking to parlay these picks at the draft for a proven NHL asset at the draft?

  32. vinotintazo says:

    SwedishPoster,

    You can start negotiations I think in Jan… but the oilers are going to wait for the draft, before they decide who they keep. Only Roy and Fasth are UFAs… there is no Chance we keep Fasth unless they trade Scrivs….

  33. Hall Awaits says:

    If we’re dealing with hypothetical free agent pick ups and trades I would like to see something like this happen:

    1. Talk to Ference about moving to a contender in a trade. It hasn’t been a fit so get creative let’s say with a team like Nashville. I would see if they would go for a 1 for 1 swap with Viktor Stalberg coming back. Ference gets to play for a contender again (if in the line up) and we can bandaid the 3LW position. If it doesn’t work out, buy out or bury Stalberg in the minors. Easier to do with Stalberg then Ference I’m sure for Mac-T.

    2. I’ll follow LT’s idea and use the Pens first rounder to get Martin Jones out of LA. They don’t have a first rounder so I think something along those lines could work.

    3. Sign Derek Roy even if you get one of the big two. 1 year/2 million.

    4. Sign Johnny Boychuk 5 x 6 million. Personally I wouldn’t go past 5 million but this seems to be an endgame scenario for management.

    5. Sign Marincin for 2 years/1.25 million. Even if he’s your 7, make good and damn sure he won’t haunt you down the road.

    6. Sign Lander 2 years/1.5 million. This is a value contract if you can get pen to paper.

    7. Buy out Nikitin. Don’t come to camp in shape? Bye bye.

    8. Sign Schultz 1 year/3.75 million. Last chance to shine or deadline deal him.

    9. Sign Yakupov 1 year/3 million. Go for 2 years but don’t imagine uncle Igor let’s that happen.

    10. Sign Joel Ward 3 years/4 million.

    11. Trade Teddy Purcell, David Musil and MTL second rounder for Dion Phaneuf. No salary retained. This would be bold for Mac-T and huge risk.

    12. Sign former U of A forward Derek Ryan for 13th forward centre.

    13. Sign Todd Nelson.

    2015/16

    Hall / Nugent-Hopkins / Eberle
    Pouliot / Roy / Yakupov
    Stalberg / Lander / Ward
    Hendricks / Gordon / Klinkhammer
    Ryan, Pakarinen

    Phaneuf / Boychuk
    Klefbom / Schultz
    Marincin / Fayne
    Davidson

    Jones
    Scrivens

  34. vinotintazo says:

    Ben,

    so you’d have schultz and letang in the same D corps?

  35. SwedishPoster says:

    frjohnk,

    Been thinking about doing a similar breakdown. Very interesting. It’s obvious that for d-men skating is so important in the NHL today I would avoid iffy skaters altogether, even in the later rounds, unless your skating coach says its a clearly fixable issue.

  36. SwedishPoster says:

    vinotintazo,

    Thanks. I meant from other teams though.

  37. supernova says:

    G Money: About a year ago, I did my own massive number crunching exercise to come up with draft success curves.

    http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/4/8/5594876/updating-draft-success-numbers-a-vainglorious-number-crunching

    This is one of the questions I wanted to answer.Rather than assign a fairly blunt per-round number, I generated a specific curve by individual draft position.

    I also separated out draft success by forwards, defense, and goalies.

    Some commenters were offended by the fact that I used a very low cutoff for success.This however was deliberate, because I’m already counting success by games played (whether 1 or 1000, that magnitude is reflected in the data), and I’m already filtering the data by smoothing it, so the need to add an a priori filter is somewhere between unnecessary and harmful.

    In any case, you should be able to combine my curves and use a rule of thumb to assess Cullen’s numbers.

    For example, the average second round success rate (by my numbers) is about 54%, but if you look at the curve, you’ll see that 54% is arrived at by being about 70% for pick #30 and dropping to about 45% by pick #60.

    So you guys who’ve mentioned this point are absiposilutely correct, WHERE you pick in a round makes a huge difference, all e.g. second round picks are not created equal.

    excellent job. never seen this before

  38. frjohnk says:

    McSorley33:
    frjohnk,

    David Musil was ranked 38th by ISS in his draft year His skating is what is holding him back. Again not a reach pick.
    *************************************************************************************
    TSN’s staff had him ranked #41

    ***Will need to improve his skating to make the NHL as a fifth or sixth defenceman**

    Ranked 41st – and taken at #31 – overall.

    That seems like a reach ….especially when you consider there were players ranked right behind Oskar Klefbom – that dropped all the way to the 2nd round.

    http://www.hockeyprospectus.com/puck/article.php?articleid=955
    number 30
    NHL central scouting had him at 26 in feb of that year.
    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=553082

    He was projected as a first rounder by red line
    http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/sports/hockey/columnist/woodlief/2011-06-16-red-line-report-nhl-draft-defensemen_n.htm

    TSN had him at 41

    ISS had him at 38

    Picked at 31.

    Definitely not a reach pick.
    Where there better players that even bloggers figured that the oilers should have picked when there time was to pick at 31? Definitley. But Oilers knew that their defensive depth was poor at best and they figured they needed to pick a D man at that spot. Unfortunately this pick has not paid off yet. But he is only 21, so I would say it is still early.

  39. slopitch says:

    Id like to have 4 quality goalies in the system.

    #1 Jones
    #2 Scrivens
    #ahl Broissot/O’Connor

    Trade the Pittsburgh 1st (or Oilers 2nd if Pens get eliminated early) for Jones or Anderson and sign Matt O’Connor.

    A top pairing dman has to be acquired as well. Id be fine with Sekera. Suspect he wins the cup in LA and stays. Likely gonna have to be a trade. 2C is a concern but I do think its #3 of glaring needs as Roy is an ok stop gap 1 year solution unless the lottery gods reward us once more for long term suffering. Life as an Oilers fan…

  40. rickithebear says:

    Chicaogo’s curetn assets go back to 1998 picks bty draft or trade.

    Edmonton:
    Pock/Sather/Fraser
    1998: 1st Heinrich
    1999: 1st Rita

    EIG/Lowe/Pendegast
    2000: 1st Miknov 2nd Winchester
    2001: 1st Hemsky 3-2nd 3rd
    2002: 1st Ninimaki 2nd Stoll; Greene
    2003: 1st MAP 7th Brodziak 4 – 2nd; 3rd
    2004: 1st Dubnyk; Schremp 2-2nd
    2005: 1st Cogliano 3 – 2nd; 3rd
    2006: None 2nd Petry
    2007: 1st Gagner; Plante; Nash no 2nd; 3rd
    Bad 1st round reaching.

    Katz/Tambo/SM
    2008: 1st Eberle no 2nd 3rd
    2009: 1st MP; 2nd Lander; 3rd hesketh ; Abney
    2010: 1st Hall; 2nd Pitlick; Marincin; Hamilton;
    2011: 1st RNH; Klefbom; 2nd Musil 3rd Perhonen; Ewanyk
    2012: 1st Yakupov; 2nd Moroz; 3rd Khaira
    improved 1st round identification Eberel; Klef
    Poor oil king choices.

    Katz/MacT/SM Direction: BPA skill; skating; Size
    2013:1st Nurse; Traded #37 (21.3%) for picks 83;88; 94; 96; 113 (60.9%)
    2nd MOR; 3rd Yakimov; Slepyshev: 4th Platzer; Muir; 6th betker; 7th Chase
    2014: 1st Draisatl; 4th Lagesson; Nagelvoort.
    very happy with trending of all but 1 of the 1st to 4th rd picks.

  41. Jon K says:

    So right now, the Oilers are averaging 2.67 against Cullen’s expected 3, despite picking higher than – on average – 28 other teams in the league.

    It’s not good enough. Not good enough for a team that expects to compete with 29 others on an even playing ground, not nearly good enough for a team that in reality is at a disadvantage relative to other teams in the league due to factors outside their control (climate, Canadian, smaller population centre, location and travel schedule).

    EDIT: And to add, it is my recollection that the Oilers compare even worse against the average once we get past the second round and into the land of coke machines. The Oilers are additionally at a disadvantage because their inability to properly assess talent becomes even more pronounced at the pro level and they routinely send away legitimate NHL talent for magic beans because the players don’t conform to some arbitrary view of “real hockey players” that management holds over from an era that bears almost no resemblance to the modern game.

  42. Jon K says:

    And just so no one can call my a cranky contrarian, the Oilers to their benefit finally took down their Christmas decorations last week.

  43. Jon K says:

    Henry: Are you suggesting that they poop their pants?

    I laughed. Thanks for the lift.

  44. LMHF#1 says:

    Is there any scenario where MacTavish is the GM and the D isn’t a trainwreck AGAIN next year?

    Ference and Nikitin must be moved.

    Fayne needs to bat lower in the order.

    The sad reality is that they need a #1 and a #2 guy in one offseason. That’s a tall order. Not undoable for a strong, inventive GM who opens up cap space by getting rid of the waste currently on the roster, but this team doesn’t have one of those.

    If you had Marincin-Fayne and Klefbom-Schultz, plus two legit #2 guys on the first pairing that isn’t terrible. Who’s out there, expensive and on a team in cap hell? And what’s the prevailing view on Wisniewski these days?

  45. McSorley33 says:

    frjohnk,

    TSN had him at 41
    ISS had him at 38
    Picked at 31.
    Definitely not a reach pick.
    Where there better players that even bloggers figured that the oilers should have picked when there time was to pick at 31? Definitley. But Oilers knew that their defensive depth was poor at best and they figured they needed to pick a D man at that spot. Unfortunately this pick has not paid off yet. But he is only 21, so I would say it is still early.
    ************************************************************
    Those same agencies had 1st round talent still on the board when the oilers picked.

    Oilers passed on players ranked in the 20’s – to select Musil

    That is the rub. Teams drafting in front of you go for a long walk on a pier….what do you do?

    I would have preferred to simply say thank you – I will take a player that was ranked in the 20’s and move along with my chances.

    That was the choice that day -***players ranked in the 20’s*** or a player ranked in the late 30’s or #41 by TSN. To each their own.

    * Of course knowing it is all a crap shoot to a certain extent.

  46. Jon K says:

    Ca$h-Money!: I think the reality of this debate is, like most things, somewhere in the middle.

    Not all reaches are created equal.Was Musil the best player available at 31?Probably not.Was he the smartest by-the-numbers pick?No.

    Was this Mark Jankowski in the first round?Nope.

    This was a reach, rather than a giant leap of faith.We’ve made those leaps in the past, particularly with respect to enforcers and later round second tier league picks (Abney, Hesketh, Muir, the overage BCHLer whose name escapes me).

    Teams are going to reach sometimes, it’s not really worth stressing over unless it’s constant.It’s the leaps, especially outside of the very late rounds, that really bother me.

    Teams that focus on winning above all else should be concerned each and every time they reach, leave other talent on the board, and are wrong.

    G Money,

    Exactly. I tend to think of your graph when I rant on this point. I’ll try to read the comments before posting next time. Maybe.

  47. frjohnk says:

    Lowetide, just listening to your show and I agree that Lombardi has done well,
    but moving forward we will see how well he does.

    He has 3 major bad contracts.
    Richards till 2020 at 5.75M is a bad contract
    Brown till 2022 at 5.85M is a bad contract
    Quick till 2023 at 5.8M is a bad contract

    And while not at the moment
    Carter till 2023 at 5.23 will be a bad contract in 3 years.
    Gaborik till 2021 at 4.85M will be a bad contract in 2 years.

    They have 13 guys signed for about 56M next year. 14 guys for 60M if Voynov is included.

    UFA’s are Sekara, Stoll, Williams, Regehr
    RFA’s are Pearson, Toffoli, Nolan, Jones

    He has some major stickhanding to do to keep this team competitive within 5 years.

  48. zatch says:

    Hall Awaits,

    Any reason McEichal is not on the depth chart?

  49. LMHF#1 says:

    frjohnk:
    Lowetide, just listening to your show and I agree that Lombardi has done well,
    but moving forward we will see how well he does.

    He has 3 major bad contracts.
    Richards till 2020 at 5.75M is a bad contract
    Brown till 2022 at 5.85M is a bad contract
    Quick till 2023 at 5.8M is a bad contract

    And while not at the moment
    Carter till 2023 at 5.23 will be a bad contract in 3 years.
    Gaborik till 2021 at 4.85M will be a bad contract in 2 years.

    They have 13 guys signed for about 56M next year.14 guys for 60M if Voynov is included.

    UFA’s are Sekara, Stoll, Williams, Regehr
    RFA’s are Pearson, Toffoli, Nolan, Jones

    He has some major stickhanding to do to keep this team competitive within 5 years.

    The thing is, unlike with the Oilers, there’s no reason to believe he won’t get that team out of their possible cap hell.

  50. spoiler says:

    SwedishPoster:
    When are you allowed to start negotiations with pending UFAs? Before the draft? If that’s the case how you act on draft day depends on if you can fill part of your needs in free agency, if they miss out on the top FAs they need to be very active on draft day.

    It is from the entry draft until July 1. However, you cannot negotiate during this time, you can only interview the player, ie establish a level of interest and the player’s salary expectations. On July 1 you can actually negotiate.

    Of course, with guys signing complex deals a minute into free agency, the no-negotiate rule seems to have been largely ignored, even before the courting period was put into place.

  51. frjohnk says:

    LMHF#1: The thing is, unlike with the Oilers, there’s no reason to believe he won’t get that team out of their possible cap hell.

    Oilers are not in cap hell.

    They are basically middle of the pack next year when compared to all teams in the league.

    Purcell and Nikitin are only 1 year. Gordon while not a “bad contract” is pricey at 3M. His contract is only 1 more year.

    Ference will be the only bad contract starting 16-17 season.

    Of course we could always sign Matt Belesky for $7.5M for 7 years and a 4th line center for $4.5M over 4 years before then to screw up that notion.

  52. rickithebear says:

    slopitch: Id like to have 4 quality goalies in the system.
    #1 Jones
    #2 Scrivens
    #ahl Broissot/O’Connor

    NCAA golaies .925+ twice in 19-21 yrs and .920 season by 24 AHL
    Schnieder; Quick; Elliot; Bishop; Howard

    Zach Nagelvoort:

    13-14 age 19 .929 SV%;
    14-15age 20 .908 chabot fired .926
    Career .921
    Pre habot and post fired chabot games .928.

    Oconnar
    12-13 age 20 .910 he had an illness period that adressed aatend of year.
    Healthy .930 save%
    13-14 Age 21 .920
    14-15 age 22 .927

  53. vinotintazo says:

    frjohnk,

    I dont see Carter slowing down, he’s a stud can play C/W, can fly, is on a Value Contract.
    Quick is a bit expensive for an OK regular Season golie, but his Money in the playoffs so far…

    Everything else I agree with.

  54. LMHF#1 says:

    frjohnk: Oilers are not in cap hell.

    They are basically middle of the pack next year when compared to all teams in the league.

    Purcell and Nikitin are only 1 year.Gordon while not a “bad contract” is pricey at 3M.His contract is only 1 more year.

    Ference will be the only bad contract starting 16-17 season.

    Of course we could always sign Matt Belesky for $7.5M for 7 years and a 4th line center for $4.5M over 4 years before then to screw up that notion.

    Ugh…If the Oilers were in that situation. Note the word possible and the actual point of the sentence.

  55. Ca$h-Money! says:

    frjohnk:
    Lowetide, just listening to your show and I agree that Lombardi has done well,
    but moving forward we will see how well he does.

    He has 3 major bad contracts.
    Richards till 2020 at 5.75M is a bad contract
    Brown till 2022 at 5.85M is a bad contract
    Quick till 2023 at 5.8M is a bad contract

    And while not at the moment
    Carter till 2023 at 5.23 will be a bad contract in 3 years.
    Gaborik till 2021 at 4.85M will be a bad contract in 2 years.

    They have 13 guys signed for about 56M next year.14 guys for 60M if Voynov is included.

    UFA’s are Sekara, Stoll, Williams, Regehr
    RFA’s are Pearson, Toffoli, Nolan, Jones

    He has some major stickhanding to do to keep this team competitive within 5 years.

    He’s got 2 cups, and even with those contracts I’d wager that between now and 2025 his team see’s the second round of the playoffs half the time.

    That, plus 2 cups, is a pretty darn good record over that stretch of time.

  56. nelson88 says:

    Spector’s articles are rarely worth linking but found this one interesting. Particularly the sentiment near the end that the Russian goaltenders are the next wave mainly because “they haven’t been coached”. Seems about right to me. Be flexible, athletic and have a “F*ck you” or “it’s all good dude” attitude. Poor Markstrom in Vancouver seems to be text book example of a guy with a boat load of physical assets, no confidence at the elite level of competition and too many thoughts/coaching going on in his head. Kind of like my golf game.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/predicting-nhl-goaltenders-inexact-science/

  57. rickithebear says:

    Cullen picks hey!

    University paper! re: 200gm
    My pick bible!

    Michael E. schuckers
    St. lawrence university
    “what’s an NHL draft pick worth?”

    it ends up being a % success chart per pick!

    http://myslu.stlawu.edu/~msch/sports/Schuckers_NHL_Draft.pdf

  58. Alpine says:

    Re: Roy and Yak. I get the sense Yak’s gaining a reputation as a bit of a possession drag (not uncommon for young players, even good ones), but last season he did post a positive relCor. Wonder if more time spent on the LW last year was conducive to that.

  59. theres oil in virginia says:

    LMHF#1: And what’s the prevailing view on Wisniewski these days?

    I’m not sure what the prevailing view is, but I looked at his career stats the other day and it ain’t pretty. He’s pretty much never played anything close to a full season:

    http://espn.go.com/nhl/player/stats/_/id/2966/james-wisniewski

    2013-14 at 75 games is about as close as he gets.

    Avoid.

  60. DBO says:

    Easy fix. Sign all the ufas from LA and trade for their backup goalie. Lol.

    Hall. Nuge. Eberle
    Pou. Lander. Yak
    Williams. Stoll . Purcell
    Hendricks. Gordon. Klink

    Sekera. Fayne
    Klefbom. Schultz
    Regher. Nikitin
    Ference

    Jones
    Scrivens

  61. Evilas says:

    Here is a newer development on the HockeyDB site which I just noticed, maybe others have seen this as well, but it can’t be very old (or is it?). This would save a lot of us trouble in looking for daily scores, standings, transactions, etc from most of the major hockey leagues. I will definitely be bookmarking this page, have a look!

    http://www.hockeydb.com/scoreboard/

  62. G Money says:

    supernova: excellent job. never seen this before

    Thanks. If you’ve read my posts here, you know I’m a gigantic nerd. Often, I’ll just work through to some interesting result and post it here, but if it’s big and requires multiple charts and explanatory work, I’ll post it as a Fanpost over at C&B. Unless the day arrives that I’m sufficiently motivated to kick off my own blog (which if that were today I would title either Nerd Alert or The Great Depression!).

    Of course, some days I’m just bitter and then screw the analysis, I post stuff like this:
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2014/12/17/7412631/todd-nelsons-first-day

  63. Unicorns says:

    frjohnk: Nice job.Bet that took a while

    One quote
    “•Always take forwards in the first 5 to 10 picks. (I’m looking at you Aaron Ekblad – and then I’m looking away quickly because you are one scary dude)
    •The sweet spot for loading up on D is picks 11 to 30. Not to worry, Darnell, #7 is just fine!

    •The sweet spot for loading up on G is picks 45 to 85″

    I took a look at the D men taken between 2003 to 2010.There were 38 D men taken in that time period in the top 15.

    I separated them into 3 categories.
    big ( over 6 foot 1) good to elite skater
    small ( smaller than 6 foot 1) good to elite skater
    big ( over 6 foot 1) bad to mediocre skater

    I found that if a D man is big ( over 6 foot 1), top 15 pickand has good to elite skating, the chances the player makes it as a top 3 D men are over 75%.

    3 out of the 4 Dmen under 6 foot 1 picked in the top 15 are a top 3 D man
    Thomas Hickey
    Kevin Shattenkirk
    Erik Karlsson
    Ryan Ellis

    0 out of the 10 D men picked in the top 15 from 2003 to 2010 who were big but had skating issues are a top 3 D man.Luke Schenn and Jared Cowan are the best out of this bunch.
    Cam Barker
    Boris Valabik
    A.J. Thelen
    Sasha Pokuluk
    Keaton Ellerby
    Alex Plante
    Luke Schenn
    Colton Tuebert
    Jared Cowan
    Dylan McIlrath

    Picking a D man in the top 15 has a good chance of working out if the D man has good to elite skating.Never pick a D man in the top 15 who has skating issues.It never works out.

    I think skating issues tank most players at the NHL level, excepting pugilists. I always saw it as Gagner’s issue with all that skill and issues making enough come of it.

    I agree that the problems picking D high isn’t the players, it’s valuing the wrong attributes. Goalies are more cryptic, but I think the same about them. Like with Fucale, his rep has carried him farther than his play ever has consistently.

  64. wheatnoil says:

    If they retain Marincin (and right now that’s appearing to be a substantial ‘if’), his waiver status may be the best protection Nurse has to keep the Oilers from ‘Oilering’ themselves by pushing him to the NHL too quickly. The Oilers have a history of fearing losing players on waivers (Lander this season not-with-standing) and so they may choose to keep Marincin around and push Nurse down to start the year in the AHL.

  65. Evilas says:

    DBO: Easy fix. Sign all the ufas from LA and trade for their backup goalie. Lol. Hall. Nuge. EberlePou. Lander. YakWilliams. Stoll . PurcellHendricks. Gordon. Klink Sekera. FayneKlefbom. SchultzRegher. NikitinFerenceJonesScrivens

    You wouldn’t need to trade for Jones, if you offer sheet him, it would cost a 2nd or 3rd Round pick (this would depend on what your offer is, less than $1, 110, 249/yr and there is no compensation to LA. Between that number and $1,682,194/yr is a 3rd rounder, and $1,682,194-$3,364,391 is a 2nd.

    Would an offer sheet of 3 x $1,100,000 be reasonable or would it have to be higher to be able to grab him? I am thinking you would have to offer at least 1.5/yr….

    For me I think Neuvirth would be a good target, he put up excellent numbers behind a porous D and he has a track record…I am not 100% sold on Jones, he’s played behind a pretty good defense. Neuvirth could be had for 3 x $3 million, probably.

    Comments?

  66. wheatnoil says:

    frjohnk,

    Unicorns,

    Skating issues for D-men are becoming a bigger thing in the modern era, not just for high picks. These days I haven’t had the time to follow other teams all that closely… so I’ve mostly been just following Oilers’ prospects. Do other teams have young D-men making their way into the NHL with skating issues (low OR high picks)? Seems like, in the modern NHL, a lack of foot-speed, even with high end skill, is the difference between a solid AHL D-man and a legitimate NHL D-man. See Hunt, Brad or Plante, Alex, or Musil, David, etc etc (acknowledging there’s miles to be written on those guys).

    Or is my view on this skewed by the experience of the Oilers?

  67. TheOtherJohn says:

    GMONEY

    “don’t pick D at top of the draft, I’m looking at you Aaron Ekblad” Love it!!!

    Theres an excption to every rule. Ekblad YTD has 3rd best scoring by 18 year old NHL defenceman behind B Orr and Phil Houseley

    frjohnk: Oilers are not in cap hell..

    Cap Hell?????

    The Oilers have $56.3M committed to 9 forwards projecting $3m for Yak , 6 D projecting Schultz at $4m & Marincin at $1.35m and a back up goalie (Scrivens) at $2.3m. That leavesthe team 13.7m before it bangs against the cap ceiling for 4 more forwards, 1 D and a starting goalie.

    Not a lot of money for a top 4 D, a 2C, a starting goalie and some depth players

    That might be acceptable if you had a 10th place team and were hoping to go 2 rounds in the playoffs . The Oilers HOPE to get to be playing meaningful games in January this coming year and with the existing D that will be tough.

    Managing your salary is a very important skill in a cap world and the Oilers have shown they are completely clueless in that skillset . Look at teams like Nashville and Florida as examples good money managers

  68. G Money says:

    TheOtherJohn: : “don’t pick D at top of the draft, I’m looking at you Aaron Ekblad”
    Theres an excption to every rule. Ekblad YTD has 3rd best scoring by 18 year old NHL defenceman behind B Orr and Phil Houseley

    Indeed there is … looking at how things have shaped up over 10 years of drafting gives you a strategy, not an absolute. I use the term ‘sweet spot’ several times, and that’s probably the correct term. Pick high 1st round for forwards, pick medium 1st round for D, and don’t waste your time on goalies until the 80s.

    Re: Ekblad … you dropped the second half of my sentence, which is “and then I’m looking away because you are one scary dude”. The point being, the general rules may say not to pick him high, but the individual results say something else altogether.

    Same goes for Hanifin this year.

  69. vinotintazo says:

    wheatnoil,

    I agree with this, im just worried that McT didnt mention him. I’m also worried that this D Coprs is not good enough and we need atleast another D-man (Top 3). That means Marincin is the extra, since Ference has a NMC and Nikitin is making 4.5M, hard to sit him @ that price.

  70. frjohnk says:

    Evilas: You wouldn’t need to trade for Jones, if you offer sheet him, it would cost a 2nd or 3rd Round pick (this would depend on what your offer is, less than $1, 110, 249/yr and there is no compensation to LA.Between that number and $1,682,194/yr is a 3rd rounder, and $1,682,194-$3,364,391 is a 2nd.

    Would an offer sheet of 3 x $1,100,000 be reasonable or would it have to be higher to be able to grab him?I am thinking you would have to offer at least 1.5/yr….

    For me I think Neuvirth would be a good target, he put up excellent numbers behind a porousD and he has a track record…I am not 100% sold on Jones, he’s played behind a pretty good defense. Neuvirth could be had for 3 x $3 million, probably.

    Comments?

    Jones has put up a .909 save % ( less than league average) with a team in front of him that is
    3rd in Shots Against/60
    8th in Scoring Chances Against/60
    5th in Home Plate Shots Against

    and if he came to the oilers, it would be to a defense ( now minus Petry) that is
    21st in SA/60
    24st in Scoring Chances Against/60
    25th in Home Plate Shots Against/60

    We cant continue to bring in back up goalies that MIGHT turn out.

    We need a proven starter.

  71. wheatnoil says:

    vinotintazo:
    wheatnoil,

    I agree with this, im just worried that McT didnt mention him. I’m also worried that this D Coprs is not good enough and we need atleast another D-man (Top 3). That means Marincin is the extra, since Ference has a NMC and Nikitin is making 4.5M, hard to sit him @ that price.

    Agreed… if the Oilers acquire someone (which I hope they do) things look tougher for Marincin. In that case, the best scenario for him may very well be that they choose to keep him around as the 7th D-man to risk not losing him on waivers. Even as the 7th D-man, he’ll likely play at least 50% of the games due to injury.

    Still… it’s a tough spot he’s in, with Nurse nipping at his heels and potential Hanifan around the corner (who may very well stay in the NCAA for a couple more years even if the Oilers draft him). If they do trade Marincin, I sure hope they get value.

  72. G Money says:

    wheatnoil: Skating issues for D-men are becoming a bigger thing in the modern era, not just for high picks. These days I haven’t had the time to follow other times all that closely

    As size and speed increase for forwards, the era of the big but lumbering forward slowly declining, I have a tough time seeing in the long term how defensemen can play in the NHL without having good to elite skating.

    Evilas,

    The thing you appear to be forgetting (not clear) about offer sheets is that its not the compensation that’s the top of mind – it’s whether the team behind it will match the offer.

    So the question is, can and will LA match a $1.1M offer for Jones? Seeing as the minimum salary is something like $950K and they’d have to replace him anyway, I don’t see why they wouldn’t. So your offer sheet has to start well beyond that to have any realistic shot, closer to $1.5M as a starting point.

    The real issue with offer sheets is the fact that you have to make an offer so high for a player that the other team will not match. Any teams going to match a reasonable offer, so it has to be an unreasonable offer to get any traction.

    And of course, the higher and more unreasonable the offer, the greater the compensation that has to be paid as a result.

    And so the team making the offer sheet, if it gets accepted, now a. has an unreasonable contract and is a step closer to cap hell, and b. just gave a solid shot in the nads to its future.

    About the only situation I can see that makes an offer sheet likely is that if a team is highly competitive already, has lots of cap room to take on a bad contract, has a single serious roster gap that they feel they can fill with a targeted player, and are targeting a team that has cap problems and won’t/can’t match a good offer.

    Not many of those teams out there at any given time.

    And that’s why they’re so rare.

  73. ashley says:

    G Money,

    This is excellent work.

    It emphasizes the care that must be taken in the first two rounds, especially the top 15 picks. Your data helps to define a “reach” pick which must be defined differently at different stages of the draft. Perhaps consensus rating +/- 1 near the very top, +/-3 middle of the first round and more like +/- 12 once the second round starts. Or something like that.

    For example, an argument could be made that the Draisatl pick at #3 was more of a reach than either of Moroz or Musil. Consensus had Draisatl ranked 4+ and Bennett well above 4 including number one on several rankings.

    This is why I think it was wise of the OIlers to take Yak instead of Murray in 2012. At 1OV, with a clear consensus ranked candidate, and distance between that candidate and the rest of the field, Murray would have been a de facto reach pick.

  74. MightyOil1 says:

    TheOtherJohn: After MacT’s ridiculous press conference I’m not sure a lot of the scouting staff get fired.They should but that applies equally to many (most??) in the organization. The Oiler draft record outside of the 1st round is abysmal particularly as they draft at front of those rounds. Cullen’s projections would not account for that. Klefbom is 2 years away from being capable of being a steady top 4 playoff defender and he’s 22 years old. Like Nurse a lot but expect he’s 3-4 years away from the same type of role. As to liking our forward group we have a 29th place team and have extreme difficulty being successful competing against the good teams.This team needs a starting goaltender, 2 top 4 D men and a 2C. Wait that’s the same list as last spring

    Same problems since Pronger left…..unbalanced as they say in these parts….the first step in recovery is admitting you have a problem….

  75. wheatnoil says:

    frjohnk: We cant continue to bring in back up goalies that MIGHT turn out.

    We need a proven starter.

    Who would you suggest?

  76. Oddspell says:

    G Money: Indeed there is … looking at how things have shaped up over 10 years of drafting gives you a strategy, not an absolute.I use the term ‘sweet spot’ several times, and that’s probably the correct term.Pick high 1st round for forwards, pick medium 1st round for D, and don’t waste your time on goalies until the 80s.

    Re: Ekblad … you dropped the second half of my sentence, which is “and then I’m looking away because you are one scary dude”.The point being, the general rules may say not to pick him high, but the individual results say something else altogether.

    Same goes for Hanifin this year.

    It’s like poker.

    Just because you pulled 3 sevens on the flop doesn’t mean betting on a 2-7 off-suit was a good move.

    And just because you lost doesn’t mean calling with pocket aces was a bad one.

    That aside, has anyone gone through and looked at the relationship between drafting order of defencemen and games played by defencemen? I think comparing this data to the same set for forwards (and goalies) would help give some context to this argument. How much more likely is it for the top drafted forwards to be better NHLers than top drafted defencemen (relative to their positional peers).

    edit: I should probably read the whole thread. It looks like you did exactly that!

  77. frjohnk says:

    TheOtherJohn: Cap Hell?????
    The Oilers have $56.3M committed to 9 forwards projecting $3m for Yak , 6 D projecting Schultz at $4m & Marincin at $1.35m and a back up goalie (Scrivens) at $2.3m. That leavesthe team 13.7m before it bangs against the cap ceiling for 4 more forwards, 1 D and a starting goalie.

    I doubt Yak gets that for a bridge contract, but I will go with your numbers.

    Its actually needing 3 forwards, I included Pakarinen at .8M

    Lander will get signed for around 1M

    This would put us at about $57M

    So we would need a
    2C
    3LW
    Top Pairing D man
    Number 1 goalie

    could probably find a value contract player at 3LW for 1.5M

    Depending on where the cap is at, that leaves us anywhere from $10M to $15M to fill those positions.
    As long as we get a few contracts for value, that is not cap hell.

    There are about 10-12 teams who are worse positions.

    The big problem is spending the cap and ending up bottom 5.

    But we are not in cap hell.

  78. TheOtherJohn says:

    Thought your additional comment in Copper and Blue re Ekblad was that you did not want to piss off a large, mean big body D by picking him lower in the draft.

    Do not think Hanifan is much like Ekblad at all. Very good skater but offense is the issue and he does not have a strong shot. Ekblad has a superb shot, produced ofense at draft-1, in his draft year and and is certainly producing offense in the NHL as a draft+1

    I’d still take Hanifan #3 with Marner at the 4 slot

  79. G Money says:

    TheOtherJohn: Thought your additional comment in Copper and Blue re Ekblad was that you did not want to piss off a large, mean big body D by picking him lower in the draft.

    LOL, I guess that works too! If I were presenting this in person, yeah, I’d be pretty wary!

  80. G Money says:

    TheOtherJohn: Do not think Hanifan is much like Ekblad at all. Very good skater but offense is the issue and he does not have a strong shot. Ekblad has a superb shot, produced ofense at draft-1, in his draft year and and is certainly producing offense in the NHL as a draft+1

    Just to be clear, I’m not suggesting that Ekblad and Hanifin are similar, only that the scouting verbal on the latter makes him a candidate for being an elite 1D and therefore justifies a high pick despite the risk.

    Again, key point being that the results over the last 10 years indicate that you need to be very careful if you take a D over an F high in the draft. Not that you can’t, just be damn careful. To paraphrase LT in one of his recent posts: “If you’re going to pick a D high, you better be right!.”

  81. G Money says:

    Oddspell: I should probably read the whole thread. It looks like you did exactly that!

    Asked and answered! 🙂

  82. SwedishPoster says:

    G Money,

    That was my main issue with the Musil pick. He was a dinosaur before his first rookie camp. He’d been a great pick 2001.

  83. wheatnoil says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Do not think Hanifan is much like Ekblad at all. Very good skater but offense is the issue and he does not have a strong shot. Ekblad has a superb shot, produced ofense at draft-1, in his draft year and and is certainly producing offense in the NHL as a draft+1

    The comparison is tough because of league differences. Ekblad scored 0.91 points/game in his draft year in the OHL, competing against 16 to 20 year olds. Hanifan is currently scoring 0.64 points/game but is in a league of 18 – 24 year olds… and he started the year being only 17. How much would he score if he was in the OHL and not constantly competing against men older than him?

    I put forward this question because I genuinely do not know the answer. I’m not sure that we have NHL-Es that have been validated for defensemen. So it’s hard to know, based off the numbers, exactly how much offense Hanifan brings.

  84. Lowetide says:

    NHLE’s using Vollman:

    Hanifin 82gp 3-14-17
    Ekblad 10-12-22

    It’s important to point out PP time can really skew defensemen. Hanifin has 1 pp goal, dont’ know assist total.

  85. G Money says:

    SwedishPoster,

    True.

    I think there is a setup to fail happening when you pick a guy who is slated up front to be a 5/6 D at best. Seems to me that, like with forwards, you want an elite Jr or college player who has a chance at being elite but when his game doesn’t translate fully to the NHL, can then rework his game on the third or fourth line / second or third pairing.

    That said, the one bright spot is that Musil seems to be consistently outperforming expectations at every level, despite his skating.

  86. stush18 says:

    Evilas,

    I would target nuevirth. I think theres only a couple teams he would go to to try for a legitimate chance at beig a starter. Unfortunately buffalo is one of those places. They could pony up 4×4 and be no worse for it. We cant afford that.

  87. sliderule says:

    One of the major differences this year with draft prospect analysis will be for the first time the on ice testing at combine.

    The scouts will get to compare Eichel and Hanifin against players like Mcdavid ,Marner and ChL defncemen.

    I don’t have any idea how hard Hanifin shoots but his skating should test better than all the players with exception of Mcdavid and Marner..

  88. TheOtherJohn says:

    Ekblad was a comparable scorer to Pietrangelo and Doughty in the OHL in draft -1 and draft year. Additionally he has an early birthday.Ekblad scored draft -1, in the playoffs in his draft-1 year and in his draft year. He was also voted the hardest shot in his 17 year old sesaon in his conference of the OHL and is 225 lbs

    To the extent Vollman’s NHLE for Ekblad was 10-12- 22 pts. He’s currently hasscored 34 pts in 64 games which projects to 40 points on a season . Maybe Hanifan will score 34 points next year in the NHL but I don’t think so.

  89. Lowetide says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Ekblad was a comparable scorer to Pietrangelo and Doughty in theOHL in draft -1 and draft year. Additionally he has an early birthday.Ekbladscored draft -1, in the playoffs in his draft-1 year and in his draft year. He was also voted the hardest shot in his 17 year old sesaon in his conference of the OHL and is 225 lbs

    To the extent Vollman’s NHLE for Ekblad was 10-12- 22 pts. He’s currently hasscored34 pts in 64 games which projects to 40 points on a season . Maybe Hanifan will score 34 points next year in the NHL butI don’t think so.

    We always have to consider context. Ekblad’s TOI isn’t tracked in the OHL but he was probably playing major minutes in all areas. With the Panthers, he’s posting terrific numbers with Brian Campbell

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=1987&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

    We’ll never be able to compare Hanifin and Ekblad directly but it’s absolutely certain that Ekbld was lucky to be drafted by Florida, play in the EC and have Campbell as his pairing mate. Should Hanifian land in Edmonton, he will not be as fortunate.

    No matter his ability.

  90. Pajamah says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    To be fair, there is no way we get a #1 or 2 D-Man without giving up one of our $6M wunderkids.

    Or #2C. You can afford to sign one. The likelihood the Oilers do is minimal. When you make $7 mill per season, you absolutely get to choose where you want to go. Oilers won’t free agency their way into 2 or 3 of those players. Nor should they.

    Package their 1st rounder from Pittsburgh and a decent prospect to get your #2C. Sign your #2 D-man (if possible). Take a chance on a young .930 AHL goaler.

    Trade Eberle or Hall (spits), pencil in McEichel (knock on wood) and go get Seabrook before Calgary does.

  91. rickithebear says:

    Players age based NHLE By CHL production

    Marner 5’11” 165lb
    #3 Button #5 Mackenzie
    80gm 47G 80A 127P

    Mcdavid 6’1″ 187lb
    #1 Button #1 Nackenzie
    80gm 46G 80A 126P

    Eichel 6’2″ 195lb
    #2 Button #2 Mackenzie
    80gm 34G 69A 103P

    Strome 6’3″ 187lb
    #4 Button #4 Mackenzie
    80gm 31G 62A 93P

    Provorov 6’0″ 200lb
    #5 Button #12 Mackenzie
    80gm 12G 37A 49P

    Werenski 6’2″ 215LB
    #7 Button #8 Mackenzie
    80gm 16G 31A 47
    p
    Hanafin 6’2″ 205lb
    #6 Button #3 Mackenzie
    80gm 8G 34A 42P

    R. Andersson 6’0″ 210lb
    #33 Button NR Mackenzie
    80Gm 8G 34a 42P

    Beauvillier 5’10” 181lb
    #16 Button #58 Mackenzie
    80gm 36G 42A 78p

  92. vinotintazo says:

    rickithebear: Marner 5’11” 165lb

    man he’s small. if we get him, Yak’s days are over….

  93. wheatnoil says:

    Sounds like Jujhar Khaira is going to be out for awhile. Cross-checked last night, left the game. Sent back to OKC for an MRI. #OKCBarons— Eric Rodgers (@ericrsports) March 5, 2015

    Bad luck for Khaira. The Barons’ forward depth gets thinner.

  94. Maurey says:

    My shopping list would be: RD Johnny Boychuk for $6M, LD Christian Ehrhoff for $5M, C Derek Roy for $2.25M, Thomas Greiss for $2.25M, C Marcel Goc for $1.75M, LW Blake Comeau for $1.75M, RW Scottie Upshall for $1.5M.

    I think there probably stuck with Ference and his NMC so he becomes your number 6-7D until his contract is done. Dump or Buyout Nikitin & Purcell. Explore the market for Gordon & Hendricks. Say goodbye to Fasth, Aulie and Pitlick.

    Sign College players G Matt O’Connor & RD Kenney Morrison. Sign RFAs Yakupov, Marincin, Lander, Fraser, Schultz, C Hamilton. Sign prospects Slepyshev, Platzer, LaLeggia.

  95. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Maurey:
    My shopping list would be: RD Johnny Boychuk for $6M, LD Christian Ehrhoff for $5M, C Derek Roy for $2.25M, Thomas Greiss for $2.25M, C Marcel Goc for $1.75M, LW Blake Comeau for $1.75M, RW Scottie Upshall for $1.5M.

    I think there probably stuck with Ference and his NMC so he becomes your number 6-7D until his contract is done. Dump or Buyout Nikitin & Purcell. Explore the market for Gordon & Hendricks. Say goodbye to Fasth, Aulie and Pitlick.

    Sign College players G Matt O’Connor & RD Kenney Morrison. Sign RFAs Yakupov, Marincin, Lander, Fraser, Schultz, C Hamilton. Sign prospects Slepyshev, Platzer, LaLeggia.

    No one in the NHL other than us are interested in Derek Roy. If they are, he knows as well as anyone that he stands a good chance of being let go mid season, whereas Edmonton will keep him around all year and let him play big brother to a budding star.

    Offering Derek Roy 2.25 million would be sheer insanity.

    Offer him $1.25. He will take it happily.

  96. wheatnoil says:

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/hockey/edmonton-oilers/Edmonton+Oilers+Angeles+Kings+York/10864893/story.html

    Matty talking about goaltending. Mentions Jones, the Rangers’ Cam Talbot, Cam Ward, and Niemi, in that order (edit: he doesn’t specifically say that the Oilers are prioritizing those options in that order though). Talks about using Pitts’ first to go after Jones, the first or early second to go after Talbot, a later pick and a prospect to go after Ward with salary-retained, or signing Niemi straight up in the off-season.

  97. Maurey says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    Good point. Yeah, I think you may be right and that would definitely be better asset management. Most of my numbers were me trying to make a worst case scenario to see what it would do to the Oilers cap. My guess is that he signs somewhere in between, in the 1.5 to 1.75 range. Upshall may be available for even less than 1.5 as well. I think the rest, although they were cheap this year, have proven themselves (Goc, Greiss and Comeau) to be valuable on their respective teams. Ehrhoff hasn’t had the greatest year and has had injury problems but it still might take more to get him to play in Edmonton than it took last year to get him to play in PIT. Boychuk will fetch a lot, so I think $6M might even be a hometown discount (he does own a house in Edmonton).

  98. frjohnk says:

    I do wonder if the oilers will entertain the thought of buying out Purcell.

    Next year our top 2 LWer’s are Hall and Pouliot
    Our top 2 RWers are Eberle and Yak.

    Yes, Purcell is a legit NHL player but we will be paying Purcell 4.5M to play on the 3rd line. That’s too much.

    It costs 1.5M next year and 1.5M the year after to buy him out.

    That 3M in cap space can be better used by putting that money into a 2nd line center.

    If the salary cap is in the $69 to $71M range I’d expect quite a few buyouts throughout the league.

    The UFA list could be bigger than we know.

  99. rickithebear says:

    vinotintazo: rickithebear: Marner 5’11” 165lb
    man he’s small. if we get him, Yak’s days are over….

    Tkachev 5’8″ 163lb 50PT NHLE

    #4 Marner; Strome; Provorov; hanafin; werenski
    #23 C beauvillier 5’10 181lb 78P NHLE
    #34 Andersson 6’0″ 210LB 42P NHLE
    #60 Senyshyn 6’2′ 195lb
    first 26gm 10P 4th linr role.
    2nd line
    22gm 18g 13A +18 1.41 PPg .w/ .63 NHLE translation
    80Gm 41G 30A 71P

  100. TheOtherJohn says:

    Number of people had concerns about Ekblad as a worthy 1OV. He certainly has proven to be an excellent pick. As an 18 year old,he is scoring at clip for NHL defensemen not seen since the early 1980’s. He turned 19 in early February and is 3 1/2 months younger than Draisatl.

    He is also putting up terrfic Rel Corsi and FF% numbers for a 18 yr old defenceman.People quite rightly point out that Ekblad is playing with Bryan Campbell. To suggest, however, that Campbell is the source of Ekblad’s strong performance is overly simplistic. Ekblad has a 52.9 CF% with Campbell in almost 1000 minutes and 40.3 in 149 minutes without him. That represents a fairly sizeable drop of 12.6 in 149 minute without Campbell. Campbell has a CF% of 55.1 with Ekblad and 46.2 without him, another fairly significant drop of 8.9 % without Ekblad. So Campbell is noticeably worse when playing with someone other than Ekblad in limited minutes.

    As to the notion that Ekblad is playing in the EC, I looked at Ekblad’s Conference splits: he is actually scoring at a .526 ppg against the weaker EC and .538 ppg against the WC. I do not remember, though, reading any arguments that PK Subban’s scoring numbers are somehow suspect because he plays in the EC.Norr Sid, Malkin, Ovie, Tavares or Nash.

  101. frjohnk says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Number of people had concerns aboutEkblad as a worthy 1OV. He certainly has proven to be an excellent pick.As an 18 year old,he is scoringat clip for NHL defensemen not seen since the early 1980’s. He turned 19 in early February andis 3 1/2 months younger than Draisatl.

    He is alsoputting up terrfic Rel Corsi and FF% numbers fora 18 yr old defenceman.People quite rightly point out that Ekbladis playing with Bryan Campbell. To suggest, however, that Campbell is the source of Ekblad’s strong performance is overly simplistic. Ekblad has a 52.9 CF% with Campbell in almost 1000 minutes and 40.3 in 149 minutes without him. That represents a fairly sizeable drop of 12.6 in 149 minute without Campbell.Campbell has a CF% of 55.1 with Ekblad and 46.2 without him,anotherfairly significant drop of 8.9 % without Ekblad. So Campbell is noticeably worse when playing with someone other than Ekblad in limited minutes.

    As to the notion that Ekblad is playing in the EC, I looked at Ekblad’s Conference splits: he is actually scoring at a .526 ppg against the weaker EC and .538 ppg against the WC.I do not remember, though,reading any arguments that PK Subban’s scoring numbers are somehow suspect because he plays in the EC.Norr Sid, Malkin,Ovie, Tavares orNash.

    Good stuff.
    I think it will come down to Ekblad and Forsberg for rookie of the year.
    My vote is for Ekblad. An 18 year old D man doing what is he doing is incredible.

  102. godot10 says:

    In fairness to Musil, no other D drafted in the last third of the 1st round and in 2nd round of his year has yet established themselves as an NHL regular yet. And he is the 2nd best defensive D on OKC next to Davidson. He probably would be more useful than Ference or Nikitin.

    Also, Moroz was drafted in an extremely weak draft year.

    #JustSayNoah

  103. commonfan14 says:

    godot10: In fairness to Musil, no other D drafted in the last third of the 1st round and in 2nd round of his year has yet established themselves as an NHL regular yet. And he is the 2nd best defensive D on OKC next to Davidson. He probably would be more useful than Ference or Nikitin.

    We’re probably close to Stage 6 now of my David Musil career arc with Oiler fans:

    Grudging Intrigue – “Still the wrong pick, but nice that he’s keeping his head above water in the A”

    Can he get to Stage 7?

    Grudging Acceptance – “Wow, crazy that he made the team. Tambo got lucky.”

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