FIVE THINGS THAT COULD IMPROVE THE OILERS NEXT SEASON

The Edmonton Oilers had three holes (No. 1 G, Top-pairing D, 2C) and gifted themselves with two more (Top-4D, veteran winger) in the 2015 trading window. I don’t believe there’s a snowball’s chance in hell the club can add Craig Anderson, Jake Muzzin, Antoine Vermette, Andrej Sekera and Jason Williams in one summer. However, there are some things they could accomplish during the April-September period that would improve their fortunes as early as next season.

  1. Find a No. 1 goalie. This is a tough one, as we all know goalies are voodoo. The lesson of Devan Dubnyk is this: Ben Scrivens may recover and become the goalie hoped for next season. Craig MacTavish can’t count on that, so an additional ‘good bet’ needs to be made. I’d like to see Martin Jones acquired from LAK, if the acquisition isn’t dear. I’ve read the return for LAK would need to be a first-round pick, that’s crazy. MacT may want to acquire a veteran—say Craig Anderson—and I’m fine with it (or Robin Lehner) but the GM has to be right. I’m not one of those who rips the GM for dealing Dubnyk, that deal had to be made and there’s zero proof DD would have recovered if he’d stayed here. Get a goalie. Job 1.
  2. Draft the BPA. I don’t think Edmonton gets to pick top two overall—seriously, the had a run of luck 2010-12 at the lottery, expecting more is folly—but that doesn’t mean all is lost. Draft the best player available no matter position. That’s important because Mitch Marner may spend his career as a winger but he looks like an absolute lock for impact offensive player. I don’t know if he’s the third best player on the list, it might be Noah Hanifin or Dylan Strome. Oilers need to get it right and that’s for sure. One more thing: If they draft No. 3 or lower, send the player back to junior or college. End the madness.
  3. Hire Todd Nelson as coach full stop. Lots of talk about Babcock, Hitchcock or McLellan coming here but I don’t see it. Edmonton needs to have a long, consistent run with a coach before the organization is going to attract one of those gents. Coming off the MacT exit, the Oilers were able to secure Tom Renney and Pat Quinn. Now? After running through those two plus Ralph, Dallas Eakins and now Nelson? Nah. I like Nelson’s ability to get some of these struggling youngsters (Lander, Marincin, possibly Nail) into better spots. I also like the power play (although Eakins did seem to be pulling out of a dive when he got fired). There are flaws in Nelson’s approach (he’s not paying close enough attention to the analytics, or he doesn’t value them) but for me he’s the right choice for a wayward franchise.
  4. Man up on defensive mistakes and make it right. This is a big one. If the Oilers started next season with only Mark Fayne, Oscar Klefbom and Martin Marincin from the current group, I’d consider it progress. MacT says Nikitin was out of shape, the player says he wasn’t out of shape. I say: Doesn’t matter. He was no screaming hell (healthy scratch in CBJ) before he got here and appears to be heading in the wrong direction. Andrew Ference is a shadow of his former self at this point and Justin Schultz has lost confidence and (apparently) a basic understanding of the position he plays. I’m absolutely not in favor of adding free-agent defensemen but if MacT can find a trade that brings in a 20-minute a night defenseman (Los Angeles, Boston, NY Rangers and Chicago all have money issues) then I say make it so. Move back the trio who are wobbly (Ference, Nikitin, Schultz) and run that added veteran with Klefbom, Fayne and the kid Marincin. If Nikitin, Ference and Schultz are your 5-6-7 defense next year? Well, that’s at least putting them where they belong to start the year. And one more thing: Whatever the hell that audition at the beginning of the year was, strike that from the playbook. What. A. MESS. The entire training camp and preseason was ghastly. Make decisions earlier, run your starting lineup in the final games of preseas0n.
  5. Spend the summer having the coaching staff study analytics. Seriously. Eakins got this stuff, he could make in-game decisions on the fly (and we saw that), I don’t see Nelson managing his team in that manner. Maybe it’s by design—new coach is always going to change culture and atmosphere—but these analytics have value and a modern coach needs to know this stuff. For instance, Mr. Nelson appears to be more concerned with matchups than zone starts. I would argue that’s incorrect but if Nelson’s plan is better we should be seeing better possession results (and we are not). It’s fine this season, all is lost. For next year’s coach, it’s imperative to hit the ground running and to understand that the Nuge line in the offensive zone is worth more than any other line in the offensive zone. Vital he knows that and he also needs to know the true value of the Gordon line is drastic own-zone starts.

Taylor Hall will (hopefully) be healthy in the fall. The Oilers will have a bona fide No. 1 goalie and will have made bets (good and bad) on all of the other holes in a roster that is biblical in its holeyness.

IT’S THE GOALIE, STUPID!

This blog has always been blessed with brilliant posters who bring thoughtful prose and math to the group daily. A recent example comes from FRJOHNK, who guides us through the Oilers’ issues with aplomb and reaches an interesting conclusion. Here is what he wrote and I thank him for allowing me to post it.

*WARNING, NERD ALERT*

I have been crunching numbers in the last week or so looking at what each team gives up in regards to shots and where these shots are from. I have been trying to find a measure of defensive quality by a team by using shots in a context of where a team allows them from. Basically I am looking for a stat I can label as ‘team defence”.

I ran some numbers from war on ice looking at high, medium and low danger shots. The high and medium danger area used to be called “home plate” but it has now changed to also include the area above the dots. So the high and medium danger area looks more like an arrow. So I will refer to the high and medium danger shots as from the “arrow”. The low danger shots are from the “perimeter.”

I took all the data from all 3 areas and calculated that the:

  • the save percentage from the arrow is 87%
  • the save percentage from the perimeter is 96.6%.
  • I also found that 55% of all shots are from the arrow.
  • League average shots per team per game from the arrow is 16.48
  • League average perimeter shots per team per game is 13.38

I calculated what each team was allowing in regards to shots from the perimeter and the arrow areas. Below is a snap shot.

Not all team defences are built or play the same when we look at:

Best 5 teams Best 5 teams Best 5 teams
shots against Arrow shots against Perimeter shots against
MIN 26.98 MIN 14.25 NYI 10.98
L.A 27.20 NSH 14.64 T.B 11.37
CAR 27.38 NYR 14.95 CAR 11.95
T.B 27.64 FLA 15.07 L.A 12.02
STL 27.66 L.A 15.18 STL 12.06

Worst 5 teams Worst 5 teams Worst 5 teams
OTT 32.64 CBJ 17.67 NYR 14.40
CBJ 32.77 ARI 17.86 FLA 14.90
TOR 32.97 COL 18.98 CBJ 15.10
COL 33.18 TOR 19.10 BUF 15.55
BUF 35.45 BUF 19.90 OTT 16.01

EDM 29.92 EDM 17.21 EDM 12.71
Average 29.85 Average 16.47 Average 13.38

From there I calculated what would be the expected goals that a team would allow with league average save % of 87% of shots from the arrow area and a league average perimeter save % of 96.6%. The number I came up with was a number I call “expected goals against” or “team defence”.
Before I jumped the gun and called this stat “team defence”, I wanted to know how this expected goals stat measured up with what teams allowed for scoring chances. So I ran the correlation between “expected goals” and scoring chances and found that the correlation was 0.857. Which is a very strong positive correlation. Just for reference the correlation between just plain shots against and scoring chances against was 0.689.

So below you will find Expected GAA ( or team defence), Actual GAA and the difference. The following stats are placed with the best expected GAA at the top ( or best team defence)
Expect GAA Actual GAA Difference

  1. MIN 2.311 2.424 -0.114
  2. L.A 2.407 2.369 0.037
  3. NSH 2.414 2.221 0.193
  4. DET 2.432 2.369 0.063
  5. CAR 2.435 2.531 -0.096
  6. NYR 2.461 2.281 0.180
  7. STL 2.462 2.415 0.047
  8. WSH2.479 2.470 0.009
  9. FLA 2.496 2.591 -0.095
  10. ANA 2.508 2.574 -0.066
  11. T.B 2.524 2.493 0.032
  12. PHI 2.533 2.687 -0.154
  13. WPG2.563 2.358 0.205
  14. CGY 2.608 2.439 0.168
  15. PIT 2.614 2.303 0.311
  16. NYI 2.615 2.676 -0.061
  17. BOS 2.616 2.415 0.200
  18. MTL 2.617 2.076 0.541
  19. S.J 2.625 2.582 0.043
  20. CHI 2.626 2.182 0.444
  21. VAN 2.647 2.515 0.132
  22. EDM2.695 3.179 -0.484
  23. N.J 2.729 2.318 0.411
  24. OTT 2.738 2.547 0.191
  25. DAL 2.743 3.152 -0.409
  26. ARI 2.838 3.134 -0.296
  27. CBJ 2.841 2.969 -0.128
  28. COL 2.979 2.591 0.388
  29. TOR 2.982 2.940 0.042
  30. BUF 3.147 3.227 -0.080

Now if we look at the “difference” and rank it from best to worst, we get this.

  1. MTL 0.541
  2. CHI 0.444
  3. N.J 0.411
  4. COL 0.388
  5. PIT 0.311
  6. WPG0.205
  7. BOS 0.200
  8. NSH 0.193
  9. OTT 0.191
  10. NYR 0.180
  11. CGY 0.168
  12. VAN 0.132
  13. DET 0.063
  14. STL 0.047
  15. S.J 0.043
  16. TOR 0.042
  17. L.A 0.037
  18. T.B 0.032
  19. WSH0.009
  20. NYI -0.061
  21. ANA -0.066
  22. BUF -0.080
  23. FLA -0.095
  24. CAR -0.096
  25. MIN -0.114
  26. CBJ -0.128
  27. PHI -0.154
  28. ARI -0.296
  29. DAL -0.409
  30. EDM-0.484

What the “Difference” means that at 0, that team is getting league average goaltending when accounting for shots from the areas I have described up at the top. Anything above 0 and the team has gotten above league average goaltending, anything with a minus and the team has gotten below average league goaltending.

Some notes:

  • Minnesota has had great team defence all year, but until Dubnyk came, they had one of the worst team goaltending stats in the league. Now team defence and goaltending are both near the top. This is a team to watch in the playoffs. Could be an upset.
  • Carolina has great team defence, ranking 5th, but with crappy goaltending ranking 25th, it puts them at GAA ranking of 17. On another note, they are 29th in the league in shooting % and are actually a pretty good team when looking at score adjusted fenwick. They are my pick right now to make a huge jump in the standings next year if the goaltending can rebound.
  • New Jersey, Ottawa and Colorado have terrible team defence, ranking 23rd, 24th and 28th respectively , with great goaltending that ranks NJ 3rd, Col 4th and Ott 6th, we end up with a goals against average where NJ ranks 9th ,Ott ranks 16th and Col ranks 21st.
  • Montreal and Chicago have comparable team defence ranked 18th and 20st respectively ( basically league average) and comparable GAA ranked 1st and 2nd respectively, everybody believes Carey price is the best ( which is true) but rarely do we see much love for Chicagos goalies, but Chicagos goalies are doing a helluva job. This exercise would suggest that Chicago’s Dmen are highly overated from a defensive stand point while their goaltenders are under rated.

To put this into perspective, Chicagos team defence is just a smidgeon better than the Oilers ( with Petry) as Edmontons team defence is ranked 22nd. (To think that there are 8 worse teams than Edmonton when it comes to tire fire makes me shudder, buts its true.) But because of crappy goaltending, oilers are at the bottom when it comes to GAA.

Moral of the story: If Edmonton replaces Petry properly, the team defence could be closer to league average than a bottom feeder. Still in that case, the biggest need is a number 1 goalie.

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108 Responses to "FIVE THINGS THAT COULD IMPROVE THE OILERS NEXT SEASON"

  1. theres oil in virginia says:

    I was expecting “Move to the AHL” to be #1 on your list.

  2. Zack says:

    Out of all the goalies on the market or up for potential trade what about Andrew Hammond the Hamburgerler? Or do you think he’s a flash in the pan?

    I’ve seen him play a little bit here and there and man does he calm the storm. At least for a backup option? I mean he’d probably cost the less for what is out there. At this point though I still think it would be best to aim for a legit number one and then acquire him as back-up.

    Either way Ottawa has a “three headed goalie” so the buy would be lower.

  3. stephen sheps says:

    Zack:
    Out of all the goalies on the market or up for potential trade what about Andrew Hammond the Hamburgerler? Or do you think he’s a flash in the pan?

    I’ve seen him play a little bit here and there and man does he calm the storm. At least for a backup option? I mean he’d probably cost the less for what is out there. At this point though I still think it would be best to aim for a legit number one and then acquire him as back-up.

    Either way Ottawa has a “three headed goalie” so the buy would be lower.

    Perhaps the emergence of Hammond allows one of the others to shake free? At this point someone with a track record of reasonable performance and the ability to steal a few games a season is all I ask. Anderson, despite his age and injury history, is my preference out of Ottawa’s goalie Hydra. Truthfully I don’t think there is a better goalie potentially available out on the UFA market or the trade market for that matter. Jones gives me a bit of the fear, unless Ranford comes ‘home’ in the trade as goalie coach, too.

  4. Woodguy says:

    Good article on how Horcoff is helping shelter and develop McKenzie and Ritchie on DAL:

    http://stars.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=758096

    If only the Oilers had a vet C to help shelter their kids that they could look up to and call Kaptain……

  5. Ryan says:

    I’ve been thinking a lot about the “draft bpa available” mantra widely espoused here.

    What if the BPA is a winger? We know know that starting a rebuild by building down the wings is beyond problematic.

    Top line wingers also just don’t have the trade currency that top-pairing d or centres have. It’s not like a team could draft five top-flight wingers in a long draft rebuild and parlay a few of them into a 1c and 1d.

    What about the alternate model of building down the middle and from the defense?

    The other problem with the bpa philosophy with respect to drafting a winger is that the error bars on draft day are pretty big.

    If you take the bpa winger and your projections are a little off, you now have an illiquid asset (PRV, Yak).

  6. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I think the moral of the FRJOHNK story is that when the Oilers acquire Cam Ward everything is going to look great.

    By great, I mean “Oilers.”

    Because Oilers.

  7. Zack says:

    stephen sheps,

    The two other “three headed monsters” I can really see worth taking a shot on is Calvin Pickard from Colorado and Markstrom from Vancouver. However both these options, like you mentioned, I wouldn’t feel comfortable in the actual starting role. It’d be an improvement but not a solution. So would the list look something like this?

    Number 1 Goalie list:
    Niemi

    Goalie upgrade list:
    Pickard
    Hammond/Lehner
    Markstrom

    Woodguy,

    Isn’t Horc a UFA this year, coming off a big contract…?

  8. Lowetide says:

    Ryan:
    I’ve been thinking a lot about the “draft bpa available” mantra widely espoused here.

    What if the BPA is a winger?We know know that starting a rebuild by building down the wings is beyond problematic.

    Top line wingers also just don’t have the trade currency that top-pairing d or centres have.It’s not like a team could draft five top-flight wingers in a long draft rebuild and parlay a few of them into a 1c and 1d.

    What about the alternate model of building down the middle and from the defense?

    The other problem with the bpa philosophy with respect to drafting a winger is that the error bars on draft day are pretty big.

    If you take the bpa winger and your projections are a little off, you now have an illiquid asset (PRV, Yak).

    Oilers have in fact drafted heavily at D and C. They’re waiting on these players now. Winger depth is an issue on the prospect board.

  9. Kmart99 says:

    I’m going to check something…. Can a team consistently produce more shot attempts from the arrow while simultaneously producing fewer shot attempts overall than their opposition?… Or vise versa, produce more shot attempts overall, yet consistently get outchanced. If there’s evidence of teams that have had this going on for 2 seasons or more in a row, I’d say it brings up some interesting questions regarding the value of offensive zone time and possession.

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: Draft the best player available no matter position. That’s important because Mitch Marner may spend his career as a winger but he looks like an absolute lock for impact offensive player. I don’t know if he’s the third best player on the list, it might be Noah Hanifin or Dylan Strome. Oilers need to get it right and that’s for sure.

    I disagree.

    I agree with the general idea here: draft the BPA, regardless of position. Listen to your scouts. If they say the best player is X, take X. Don’t talk yourself into arguments about size, readiness, position, and other BS.

    OK.

    But, after 1, 2… I haven’t seen any strong arguments that place any of Hanifan, Strome and Marner in any particular order.

    YET.

    Unless and until I see evidence pointing to one as a clear, evidence-based, pick over the other two ON DRAFT DAY (not later), I can’t argue that this decision carries the kind of weight you are giving it above.

    At this moment, I can’t argue credibly against a scouting team identifying one over the other.

  11. slopitch says:

    Outstanding stuff by frjohnk! It’s pretty clear goaltending has sewered the year. If argue adding a top pairing D is priority #2 (which is covered in point #4).

    Oilers are about -100 goal diff for the year (prorated). To get in the playoff picture, they need about +10. Goaltending will make up for 50-60 goals. A healthy Hall will help. Oilers on ice shooting % was down as well. Even with some expected internal development there is just too much ground to make up. Expecting Drai or Nurse to make positive impacts as rookies isn’t fair. The Oilers do have cap space but they sure haven’t done well on the UFA market. I’m with LT – MacT will need to make a couple good trades to make 2015-16 a meaningful season.

  12. Ca$h-Money! says:

    1. Find some top 6 forwards who can actually mentor our young talent in terms of teaching them how to be a star in this league.

    2. Fix the defence.

    3. Fix the goaltending.

    4. Fix the management.

    5. Convince the owner that, at the pro level at least, the point of playing is winning.

  13. TheOtherJohn says:

    Good read

    Goaltending is everything at every level. If you do not have goaltending it is very very hard to compete and win. Too bad we weren’t offered Corey Schneider at 2013 draft.

    My priorities would be the same as last year 1G, 2 top 4 D and 2C. But as they those holes are extremely difficult slots to fill, maybe blow out the whole hockey ops group because they are terrible at their job. And since you’re pink slipping people do LaForge and the Octane girls at same time

  14. 36 percent body fat says:

    Lowetide your thoughts on this?

    Strudwick thinks if we get Eichel we send him back to play college. This is a kid who is project above and more NHL ready than Hall. I get it, there is a mess on this team. But how is playing against weak competition relative to you help your development. How does playing 40 games instead of 80 help you.

    I know he is a kid, but I can just imagine what a right handed center this good could do for Yak. I dont know who you put with them. Hall would be nice but than you are just begging for tough minutes. I guess Pouliot, and get them the easier minutes.

    Can Eichel go to the AHL. He has not played a CHL game, does he have to go there if he is not NHL.

    We know he is oiler 2C Net year. Which would be great. Have Drai move to wing along side Roy.

    Hall-Nuge-Ebs
    Pouliot-Eichel-Yak
    Drai-Roy-Purcell
    Kin-Gord-Hend-Lander

    That looks solid. Or send Drai to minors and use lander their. Or move Purcell for something. With only one year left on his contract we may be able to fetch a fourth.

  15. JAG-041 says:

    I love that analysis, and I’d love to see it done over the course of a few seasons and see how it correlates with Fenwick and points in the standings. So far it looks like it corresponds with what has happened on the ice.

    The inconsistent goaltending is killing the Oilers and all my Toronto friends laugh at me and say I’m making excuses when I say that. I invoke advanced stats on them and their eyes glaze over. This blog is my only home.

  16. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ryan:
    I’ve been thinking a lot about the “draft bpa available” mantra widely espoused here.

    What if the BPA is a winger?We know know that starting a rebuild by building down the wings is beyond problematic.

    Top line wingers also just don’t have the trade currency that top-pairing d or centres have.It’s not like a team could draft five top-flight wingers in a long draft rebuild and parlay a few of them into a 1c and 1d.

    What about the alternate model of building down the middle and from the defense?

    The other problem with the bpa philosophy with respect to drafting a winger is that the error bars on draft day are pretty big.

    If you take the bpa winger and your projections are a little off, you now have an illiquid asset (PRV, Yak).

    But, highly touted Cs and Ds lose all kinds of value when they fall off the rails in one way or another too. There are countless examples.

    Good players in bad situations retain value regardless of position.

    I don’t think if either of Magnus or Yak had played center but enjoyed the same (lack of) success they’d be worth much more on the market then they are now.

    Perhaps marginally so.

    The other ripple is that D take longer to break in so their NHL value takes a lot longer to ascertain and Cs often move to wing and either never or slowly find their way back to C.

  17. Lowetide says:

    36 percent body fat:
    Lowetide your thoughts on this?

    Strudwick thinks if we get Eichel we send him back to play college.This is a kid who is project above and more NHL ready than Hall.I get it, there is a mess on this team.But how is playing against weak competition relative to you help your development.How does playing 40 games instead of 80 help you.

    I know he is a kid, but I can just imagine what a right handed center this good could do for Yak.I dont know who you put with them.Hall would be nice but than you are just begging for tough minutes.I guess Pouliot, and get them the easier minutes.

    Can Eichel go to the AHL.He has not played a CHL game, does he have to go there if he is not NHL.

    We know he is oiler 2C Net year.Which would be great. Have Drai move to wing along side Roy.

    Hall-Nuge-Ebs
    Pouliot-Eichel-Yak
    Drai-Roy-Purcell
    Kin-Gord-Hend-Lander

    That looks solid.Or send Drai to minors and use lander their. Or move Purcell for something.With only one year left on his contract we may be able to fetch a fourth.

    If the Oilers get McDavid or Eichel, they’re in the NHL next season. I don’t think there’s any doubt of it.

  18. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Lowetide,

    Only case I can see is Eichel choosing to go back… but that would be odd considering the payday. McDavid is here for sure.

  19. Acumen says:

    Absolutely excellent work by frjohnk, which really reinforces my hopes that they trade for Raanta. He is one guy that if they’re selling Marincin, I would be fine with in the package coming back. Makes sense on both ends, with Marty fitting the Blackhawk mould and also looking a good replacement for bodies they’re sure to lose this year on the back end.

    If the ask is Marincin and the Montreal 2nd for Raanta, are we as a fan base happy with that? They’ve been linked to this guy in the past so I don’t think I’m blue skying too much here.

    As for the rest, I think a bonafide and experienced top pairing guy is the biggest thing. As much as I hated him early in his career, I’ve come around on Phaneuf as a Leaf with the responsible way he’s handled a rough go in Toronto. I think he’s a great buy low candidate in a position to help our team in a lot of ways. Also a guy we’ve been linked to in the past.

    Get those two, rid ourselves of Ference while finding another D man who can play the role he’s supposed to (LIKE JEFF FREAKING PETRY), retain Roy and find a useful mid 6 forward or two (Beleskey? Beagle?), and I’m happy with the summer. Honestly, not Herculean, but with proper coaching and development could put us in the playoff race next year.

  20. Pajamah says:

    Woodguy:
    Good article on how Horcoff is helping shelter and develop McKenzie and Ritchie on DAL:

    http://stars.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=758096

    If only the Oilers had a vet C to help shelter their kids that they could look up to and call Kaptain……

    So basically, we need a Horcov to shelter Yak, a Petry type on defense, and a Dubnyk in goal.

    BUT WHERE CAN THE OILERS EVER FIND THESE PLAYERS???!!!

  21. Diesel says:

    Oilers play the Flames on April 4th which got me thinking about a hypothetical and sparked an interesting conversation with my buddies….

    If the Oilers played the Flames at the end of the season and the game determined if the Flames made the playoffs, but an Oiler win would move them from 29th to 28th in the draft, what would you cheer for? How much petty hatred for the Flames do you harbor?

    I suspect that most level-headed Oil fans would side with the higher pick this year, but it’s still fun to wrestle with the options.

  22. Ryan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    What have we learned from the 2012 draft?

    For me, if you’re going to spend a lottery pick on an undersized skill winger, you better be damn sure he has elite hockey sense and separation speed. 🙂

    Curious what’s your current top ten in a 2012 re-draft?

  23. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide: If the Oilers get McDavid or Eichel, they’re in the NHL next season. I don’t think there’s any doubt of it.

    Indeed.

    They’ll likely have the 3, 4 or 5 in the NHL too for a look. Can’t help themselves. Expect, at minimum, a long TC audition with a lot of verbal about the player doing the right things and impressing and making decisions difficult, etc.

  24. Hammers says:

    Your first 4 points are as if I said them . The one thing I would add is come training camp get your best 27 players within the 1st week then play them in multiple pairs and lines making your last 4 cuts or IR players . Nelson needs to find his best combinations before the season starts not 10 games in . That may mean RNH,Hall &Ebs get broken up but training camp needs to be about finding balance .

  25. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Excellent analysis frjohn.

    If oilers goalies were better then after a shot there would be less likelihood of a face off at centre ice. Even without the puck the attacking team is more likely to get the next shot regardless if there is a whistle or not from the save.

    Therefore improving the G will expose the D deficiencies more.

    So I caution claiming the D is alright and improving the G will make things good. Both are massive holes that need significant effort.

  26. Pajamah says:

    You almost forget about Nurse and Draisatl when we talk prospects because they’re not your average run of the mill 3-5 year projects.

    If Eichel comes to Edmonton next year and Nuge/Gordon get the 80/20 zone starts, which of the two young C’s do you shelter? Which one gets moved to the wing? And who do you put with Yakupov?

  27. book¡je says:

    Pajamah: So basically, we need a Horcov to shelter Yak, a Petry type on defense, and a Dubnyk in goal.

    BUT WHERE CAN THE OILERS EVER FIND THESE PLAYERS???!!!

    You need to find some team in the league who has a weak GM who values players based on the wrong things and then grab those players from him.

  28. Acumen says:

    Diesel,

    Once upon a time I cheered on the Oilers in a meaningless endo-of-season game that they won against Vancouver. It moved us out of Monahan territory. I was fine with it all of that summer as it meant we were moving toward something as a team. Then the last 2 years happened.

    Go Flames all the way in that game. I would genuinely enjoy watching that team in the playoffs either way. It hurts to see them succeed but I have to admit, quite begrudgingly, I like the way they hockey. And the points are detrimental at this point. Worry about next year in the summer, burn everything to the ground from now until then.

  29. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: Oilers have in fact drafted heavily at D and C. They’re waiting on these players now. Winger depth is an issue on the prospect board.

    You better be 100% convinced his better than Hall , Ebs , Yak & Pouliot but I do see your point if his going back to junior for 1-2 years .

  30. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ryan:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    What have we learned from the 2012 draft?

    For me, if you’re going to spend a lottery pick on an undersized skill winger, you better be damn sure he has elite hockey sense and separation speed.

    Curious what’s your current top ten in a 2012 re-draft?

    Is Yak “undersized”?

    I haven’t heard that argument before.

    I don’t have any problems with the Yak pick. Which is different from saying I don’t have any problems with how the team handled the pick, the player’s development… and that I don’t think there are arguments worth entertaining about others (at the time) for 1OV.

    Another note from 2012.

    The number of D to come out of that draft is really boggling.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2012e.html

    If you sort by GPs or Points half of the top 10 are D. That is rare in itself, esp. this early after the draft.

    I don’t know about re-drafts and it’s still too early. I prefer to try and game out situations with the information available at the time.

  31. admiralmark says:

    book¡je: You need to find some team in the league who has a weak GM who values players based on the wrong things and then grab those players from him.

    Any chance we can get Sather to take MacT on as his protege? Kinda like that McDonagh kid.

  32. frjohnk says:

    Thanks LT for sharing.

    I will do this exercise at the end of the year as well.

    Probably compare the oilers with Petry and without.

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    Arrow save percentage
    Ward 85.7%
    Scrivens 86%
    League Average 87%

    Price 89.8%

    Perimeter save percentage
    Ward 97.3%
    Scrivens 94.8%
    League Average 96.6%

    Price 97.7%

    For me its really between Price and Ward, if we have to give the same amount of assets, Id be leaning towards Ward. 🙂

  33. flyfish1168 says:

    Karri Ramo is a UFA at seasons end.

  34. stush18 says:

    LT why do you hate nuevirth so much?

  35. Woodguy says:

    Hope you don’t mind the thread hijack LT.

    Was tweeting about FLA’s D with RiversQ (@ThomsonCam) and needed a bigger space to flesh out an idea.

    We are seeing more coaches worry about zone starts for Dpairs than match ups.

    FLA has started Campbell-Ekblad 60%+ in the ozone

    EDM has started Jultz 60%+ in the ozone

    Other notable Dmen who get the same treatment:

    Hedman – TBY
    Boyle – NYR
    Green – WAS
    Yandle – NYR/ARZ
    Gunnarsson – STL

    Invariably these players always show up as “sheltered” on the QC charts.

    I think that a big, big reason they do is how QC is derived.

    Some derive it from TOI/gm, some from Expected Corsi, Relative +/- and others.

    Players who tend to take a lot of Dzone starts also tend to be the Boyd Gordon types.

    Here’s some of the NHL forwards with the toughest ZS

    Gaustad
    Nystrom
    Malholtra
    Hendricks
    Gordon
    Kruger
    Moore
    Smith
    Glendening
    Broziak
    Stajan
    MIller
    Desjardins
    Chipchura

    These players also invariably had less TOI than average, a negative RelCor (usually) and a negative relative +/- mostly due to starting in the dzone a ton.

    Coaches tend to put their best offensive players out for ozone starts so the men who populate the low OZS stat put up poor numbers relative to their team mates.

    The problem come from them then being considered “soft opposition”

    Looking at the list of names I wrote hardly any of those players are a walk in the park, so its a mis-characterization.

    I’m starting to become of the opinion to discount most QC ratings because they are reliant on stats that ignore ZS and unfairly ding the “defensively specialist” by referring to playing against him as being “sheltered”

  36. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    Your list is a veritable murderer’s row of offensive juggernauts.

    What revelation am I missing?

  37. Ripoux says:

    RE: Nurse not playing second of back-to-back last night in the Soo….from the local paper after Friday’s game:

    Asked how his knee felt after the game, Nurse reported no problems. He spoke of how he was a little tired, but felt good.

    “I need to keep working on my conditioning going into the playoffs,” said the veteran defenceman. “But I’ll be okay.”

    “All I wanted to see was that he was skating and moving and he showed he was comfortable doing both,” Keefe said. “He wasn’t holding back.”

    Keefe plans to rest Nurse tonight, with Connor Boland returning to the lineup.

    _________

    Soo has two regular season games left and they had clinched western crown.

  38. PerryK says:

    FRJOHNK

    That is superb bit of work!

    I think that you’re on to something.

    Very impressive.

    Clearly, Oilers D wasn’t the main problem. That’s been fixed by trading Petry away! #becauseoilers.

    It will be interesting to see the year end #s wowy Petry.

  39. Oddspell says:

    I’d be very interested in seeing those goalie numbers for last year (specifically the first half). Just how much was Dubnyk the problem? By eye: most of it.

  40. leeinvan says:

    What about Talbot in NYR he has a .924 S.P.. He is also young, getting an older goalie is fine if you have a potential star starting goalie in the wings, we don’t. We should have traded for Bishop when he was available, the cost was not overly high. This management team does not seem to have either the experience or the smarts to make a move like that. And saying they won’t trade away anyone they value is foolish. So we need a # 1 and 2 d man and a #1 goalie but we are not going to trade away anything valuable. Hummmm, wonder why each year we get a bunch of players added to the lineup that mostly add to the problem, instead of helping solve it. The biggest thing that needs to be changed is the management, work on the rest when we have some one who knows what they are doing.

  41. Clarkenstein says:

    LT your list of (5) is fine. However, #1 on the list HAS to be ridding the organization of Lowe and MacT! NOTHING, N.O.T.H.I.N.G. will get better until this happens!! You know it, I know, everybody knows it. If it’s Bob Nicholson that pushes these guys out and starts fresh then I’m okay with that. I don’t care who does it as long as it gets done. If not, there will be more of the same. This tandem has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt they are incapable of judging talent. Katz needs to grow a pair of big ones and do what is right for the franchise and its fanbase not a couple of guys he used to party with 30 years ago.

  42. DocFan says:

    Haven’t had a chance to follow him, but anyone know how Petry has looked on a real NHL team? I believe he is 2nd pairing with Gilbert right now?

    I wonder if he really is going to be worth more than the 4 million the oilers offered before the trade deadline. If he isn’t putting up great numbers in MTL, then chances are he doesn’t get the 5+ million contract he thinks he deserves?

    FYI, this is by no means a Petry bash. Edmonton should have definitely signed him longer term last year. I just don’t know if he’s worth 5+ million.

  43. rickithebear says:

    frjohnk: I will do this exercise at the end of the year as well.

    Getting closer!

    Corsi:
    1. Turnover location
    2. turnover type
    2. Offensive Corsi type: block; Miss; On net.
    3. rebound retrieval
    4. turnover/hit net rate
    5. takeaway/pocession on back check
    6. Zone pressure takeaway rate.

    defensive play:
    1. Shots per game
    36+ awful
    31-35 Bad
    27-30 average
    26 less better than Average.
    basic measure of team quality.

    2. shots/corsi Defence
    3. percentage of shots in Chance/ box/ Arrow area
    4. chance/corsi Defence
    5. open hole shots
    6. open hole shots/corsi Defence/ Shooter
    look at each dman’s side:

    John you got #

    this leads to trying to get the best Dmen who
    have a low box shot rate.
    keep shots to distance
    allow a low shooting % by area.

    1.Look at open hole shots
    2. goals/open hole shots – goalie
    3. rebounds/hit goalie shot – goalie
    4. open hole shots/ hit goalie rebound (By phase) – defence
    5. Open hole shots/ open hole save rebound (by phase) – defence

  44. RexLibris says:

    Item 1 isn’t get a No 1 goalie so much as find a No 1 goalie coach.

    They’ve had talent in the system but the coaching was wrong, from F to D to G. The cascading errors all ended up behind Dubnyk.

    Schwartz may be an improvement over Chabot, but they need to keep looking at this. Other teams have figured some of this out and have become “goalie factories”. It may be scry-glass divination, but then get yourself a John Dee and get in the fight.

    After that, D. Find out who thinks that Ference and Nikitin are superior to Petry and Marincin and send them to scout the Inner Mongolia Midget leagues. I don’t care who it is, this single organizational flaw will undermine every other thing they attempt to build. Like the old jokes about Soviet-era architectural experimentation with non-reinforced concrete.

    The draft problem as I see it is that after 2nd overall you have three options:

    A dynamic offensive player BUT he’s a smaller winger.

    A defensive stud BUT he plays in the NCAA with small sample sizes and is years away from the NHL.

    A big, powerful center BUT he has skating issues and may not be able to drive the proverbial bus at the NHL level.

    The Oilers need all three after five years of rebuilding and drafting in optimal positions for most of those years. Drafting has been one half of the issue, development the other.

    Sounds like they want to sell the drafting team down the river but we’ve seen mixed messages on the development front: Draitaitl in the NHL for 38 games, Nurse back to junior.

    There ought to be a sixth item on the to do list, arguably the most important but comes out of the other five: earn back the faith and trust of the fan base.

  45. Ryan says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Is Yak “undersized”?

    I haven’t heard that argument before.

    I don’t have any problems with the Yak pick. Which is different from saying I don’t have any problems with how the team handled the pick, the player’s development… and that I don’t think there are arguments worth entertaining about others (at the time) for 1OV.

    Another note from 2012.

    The number of D to come out of that draft is really boggling.

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/draft/nhl2012e.html

    If you sort by GPs or Points half of the top 10 are D. That is rare in itself, esp. this early after the draft.

    I don’t know about re-drafts and it’s still too early. I prefer to try and game out situations with the information available at the time.

    That’s sort of like the old argument at this blog of whether or not Gagner was undersized.

    It starts with the critique of him being under six feet tall. Then some smart ass cites his NHL.com listed weight of 197 lbs.

    That’s actually quite a bit more than I recalled it being (for Yak).

    Next, we can cue the Mensa member who chimes in about Yakupov being listed as the same height and weight of Sidney Crosby…

    We can skip all of that and probably agree that no one would mistake Yakupov for being a big winger.

    Anyway, I don’t have a link but I’m pretty sure that Jason Gregor ran the numbers on player size for top six forwards in th Western conference over at Oilers Nation this season.

    I’m also pretty certain the average top six winger size was came out north of six feet and 205. If I’m wrong, I’ll buy you a beer.

  46. flyfish1168 says:

    Ripoux:
    RE: Nurse not playing second of back-to-back last night in the Soo….from the local paper after Friday’s game:

    Asked how his knee felt after the game, Nurse reported no problems. He spoke of how he was a little tired, but felt good.

    “I need to keep working on my conditioning going into the playoffs,” said the veteran defenceman. “But I’ll be okay.”

    “All I wanted to see was that he was skating and moving and he showed he was comfortable doing both,” Keefe said. “He wasn’t holding back.”

    Keefe plans to rest Nurse tonight, with Connor Boland returning to the lineup.

    _________

    Soo has two regular season games left and they had clinched western crown.

    Thanks for this update. I notice last evening and posted he didn’t play. I was praying he was re-injuried.

  47. SwedishPoster says:

    Interesting numbers from FRKJOHN. I do think it’s interesting that the four bottom teams in “difference” could all be argued as carrying the among worst D-men in the league on paper, well maybe Arizona is lifted by having OEL but the other three would pretty much be my bottom three in the league

    On Nelson and analytics. He might not be a fan of it but he is preaching a lot of the conclusions drawn from them. He values possession and strives for his teams to play a possession game. He recognizes which players are helping the team better than Eakins did despite Eakins being a stat buff. For example.

    Nelsons pros so far:
    *Getting better individual performances from his players, a couple of guys playing the best hockey of their NHL careers and most are at least playing somewhat near their usual level, problem is for some players that level isn’t close to NHL quality but he at least tries to put his players in a position to succeed.
    *Seems like a strong development coach, gets players going as stated above but also seems to quickly recognize where they need to improve. I’ve been quite impressed by how he in a post-game scrum can go into detail and pick apart plays by individual players where they needed to be and what they need to do to improve on such plays.
    *Revived the PP big time.
    *Better structure in the offensive zone both with the puck and on the forecheck, pinches both more aggressive and with better support from the third forward.
    *Much improved passing game.
    *Better speed through the neutral zone.
    *Better puck management.
    *Has the team playing for him, the team is more physical and seems to battle harder, the team as a whole looks more comfortable and more confident.

    Nelsons cons so far:
    *Team still inconsistent.
    *Still struggling defensively, can defend the middle of the ice for stretches but not consistently.
    *Still not near good enough at getting out of their own zone, breakouts often aren’t quick or efficient enough, we’ve seen flashes of good breakouts but so far they’ve been just that, the team still struggles to clear the zone when under pressure even if it’s just by dumping the puck in the neutral zone.
    *Can’t slow down the top teams throuh the neutral zone, far too easy once the opponent gets past the forecheck.
    *…which leads to giving up the own blue line too easy.
    *The games where they play stronger D the offense suffers, can’t seem to get both working at the same time.

    Might have forgotten some things but that’s the gist.

    A few of the cons are obviously in part due to personnel but there are a couple of tactical issues. I’d argue it’s tougher to get the defensive tactics in place without a training camp, it takes time, especially with a team like the Oilers where there is a lack of experience and considering the state of the team when he came in.
    The last con is the trickiest part of hockey tactics, you always have to take a little from one side of it if you want to give to the other, it’s like sleeping in a cold room and the duvet is a bit too small so you have to decide if you want to cover your feet or your shoulders and the only way to feel perfectly warm and comfortable is to find perfect balance between the two. That balance is tough to install when jumping straight into the mess that was the Oilers when Nelson took over.

    He still has lots to prove but I’m a fan. I completely agree that he deserves a full season to see where he can take this team.

  48. Lowetide says:

    Clarkenstein:
    LT your list of (5) is fine.However, #1 on the list HAS to be ridding the organization of Lowe and MacT!NOTHING, N.O.T.H.I.N.G. will get better until this happens!!You know it, I know, everybody knows it. If it’s Bob Nicholson that pushes these guys out and starts fresh then I’m okay with that.I don’t care who does it as long as it gets done.If not, there will be more of the same. This tandem has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt they are incapable of judging talent.Katz needs to grow a pair of big ones and do what is right for the franchise and its fanbase not a couple of guys he used to party with 30 years ago.

    I could write that article every day. And of course you’re right.

  49. Ryan says:

    DocFan:
    Haven’t had a chance to follow him, but anyone know how Petry has looked on a real NHL team? I believe he is 2nd pairing with Gilbert right now?

    I wonder if he really is going to be worth more than the 4 million the oilers offered before the trade deadline. If he isn’t putting up great numbers in MTL, then chances are he doesn’t get the 5+ million contract he thinks he deserves?

    FYI, this is by no means a Petry bash. Edmonton should have definitely signed him longer term last year. I just don’t know if he’s worth 5+ million.

    I have only watched him play one game for the Habs.

    So far, he’s a low-event minute muncher. Apparently, they’re using him to rest their top pairing heading towards the playoffs.

    It also looks like he’s getting the shawshank zone starts.

  50. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Ryan: That’s sort of like the old argument at this blog of whether or not Gagner was undersized.

    It starts with the critique of him being under six feet tall. Then some smart ass cites his NHL.com listed weight of 197 lbs.

    That’s actually quite a bit more than I recalled it being (for Yak).

    Next, we can cue the Mensa member who chimes in about Yakupov being listed as the same height and weight of Sidney Crosby…

    We can skip all of that and probably agree that no one would mistake Yakupov for being a big winger.

    Anyway, I don’t have a link but I’m pretty sure that Jason Gregor ran the numbers on player size for top six forwards in th Western conference over at Oilers Nation this season.

    I’m also pretty certain the average top six winger size was came out north of six feet and 205.If I’m wrong, I’ll buy you a beer.

    Do you mean this article?

    http://oilersnation.com/2014/5/20/a-recipe-for-losing

    At any rate, I’m not about to argue Yak is a giant or that he is thick and sturdy, etc. Nor, am I going to argue he is undersized.

    Nor Gagner for that matter.

    Putting aside questions of effectiveness and just focusing on size, I think you have to be a little further out of range to be considered “undersized.” But, maybe that’s just me.

    At any rate, as I said, i don’t recall this coming up before.

  51. rickithebear says:

    PerryK:
    FRJOHNK

    That is superb bit of work!

    I think that you’re on to something.

    Very impressive.

    YES YOU are on to something!

    Do you people Visualize clear trends in your Data sets!

    Come on!

    It is like swimming up river with you EXPERTS!

    Sav% is a context based result.

    Perfect proof!

    26or less shot per game.
    Is an indication of quaily team.
    But a goalies low Save %
    is a result of the good teams giving up strong counter attack plays.
    resulting in High open hole shot rates and a poor save%.

    the game must be broken down into the actions of the game.
    assigned to the proper player affecting it!

    That was my rule 7 years ago!

    Corsi!

    Is a baseline.

    Like EDTA!

  52. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Clarkenstein:
    LT your list of (5) is fine.However, #1 on the list HAS to be ridding the organization of Lowe and MacT!NOTHING, N.O.T.H.I.N.G. will get better until this happens!!You know it, I know, everybody knows it. If it’s Bob Nicholson that pushes these guys out and starts fresh then I’m okay with that.I don’t care who does it as long as it gets done.If not, there will be more of the same. This tandem has proven beyond a shadow of a doubt they are incapable of judging talent.Katz needs to grow a pair of big ones and do what is right for the franchise and its fanbase not a couple of guys he used to party with 30 years ago.

    The problem is that isn’t going to happen.

    It’s simply more concrete to focus on tangible moves.

  53. rickithebear says:

    A good Pocession forward has trained themselves to shoot the puck
    in the box area (avoids blocks)
    inside posts (avoids misses)
    above pads /below shoulders (avoids hit goalie)
    resulting in high Shooting % and lower turnover rate.
    Good takeaway to giveaway rate.
    Takeaway back check rate.
    Good forward block rate!

    Shooting a puck into a goalie is great if you have LAK top 3 FO centres.

  54. rickithebear says:

    But math only takes you to a point.
    the visuals have to match.

    Ference leverage box protection:
    gone since Pectoral tear.

    Physical length and speed of Forwards
    leading to Ference not being able to engage
    attacking opposition.

    His ability to make a good leed pass no longer visible.

  55. Lowetide says:

    rickithebear:
    But math only takes you to a point.
    the visuals have to match.

    Ference leverage box protection:
    gone since Pectoral tear.

    Physical length and speed of Forwards
    leading to Ference not being able to engage
    attacking opposition.

    His ability to make a good leed pass no longer visible.

    That’s a great point on Ference.

  56. Clarkenstein says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    That’s like wanting to pick a colour for painting the front of the house while the back of the house is on fire! Daydream and fantasize all you want but until the cancer is cut out… well you know the rest.

  57. OilClog says:

    Am I really reading complaints about Nuges “starting position” on the ice compared to what Dallas Eakins was doing?? Killing his thoroughbred on the penalty kill Dallas Eakins..

    Zone starts under Eakins sure did a screaming hell of good for young Yakupov..

    I’ll take Nelsons brand of hockey anyday over anything Dallas Eakins can whip up.

    Nelson is allowing his offensive players to play the game naturally while slowly changing systems, ideology, give a shit factor.

    If Nelson comes in worried for one moment about damn zone starts next season all is lost.

    If Nelson develops proper working functioning successful systems and then and only then begins to factor in zone starts.. He will have something.

    Or he could just be putting players in different positions then the previous coach and seeing what they can do with it.. Trying to instill some confidence in these shaky young men, it’s been a few years.

    Ebs is back, Nuge is back, Yak is back, this coach has things looking up, advanced stats can become a worry when the Advanced management gets their heads out their asses and put a actual roster together.

  58. tcho says:

    frjohn – thanks for your analysis re. team d.

  59. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Clarkenstein:
    Romulus Apotheosis,

    That’s like wanting to pick a colour for painting the front of the house while the back of the house is on fire!Daydream and fantasize all you want but until the cancer is cut out… well you know the rest.

    No, it’s about discussing what’s in the theatre of the possible.

    As a bonus, that conversation happens to be an interesting and vibrant one.

    The other one is tedious.

  60. SwedishPoster says:

    I think the wish list for the off season should be #1G, top 4 D(hopefully top pairingesque), #2C + an additional right shooting D man for depth. This is with resigning D.Roy and the key RFAs There are more holes but that would be a start at least and with some internal development might give us a somewhat competitive team.

    For center the ideal would be trading for Hanzal imo, Anisimov is another good option. Patrik Berglund might be a good value trade with St. Louis likely to have cap issues and him so far not setting the scoreboard on fire, having him as a #2C is a bit of gamble on him producing more consistent offense but it’s a solid NHLer on a good contract and the right age for our team going forward, could be moved to wing if Leon comes into camp swinging or the draft gets us one of the franchise kids.
    The FAs Söderberg and Vermette are nice options too depending on the money and term.

    For D the big FAs are well known, Erhoff, Sekera, Petry, Green, Franson and on, I’d prefer Sekera but he’s likely more interested in a contender after spending years on so so teams. Petry returning would be nice ofc. Erhoff is a solid player as well but I think he stays in Pittsburgh.

    For goalies I do think Raanta might be the best option. Niemi is getting a bit underrated imo, he’s a solid goalie and while him having “stand on his head” games is less common he rarely puts in a stinker of a game either. Could be a nice counterpart to Scrivens rollercoaster of good and bad. Lehner is probably the highest risk/high reward option, loads of talent but needs some mental toughness imo.

    For the additional D I’d argue for the rumoured Hersley and depending on what Anaheim decides to do Tim Heed out of the SHL, he’s a Ducks RHD prospect who I think is an RFA after this season. Improved a lot from last year and is one of the best D-men in the SHL sporting a 0,74 PPG. If Anaheim is moving on from him he’s a great pick up though I think they are to smart of an org to let him go. Both these swedes would be good bets and great PP options but as always with guys who are never NHL tested you shouldn’t write them into the lineup and be done with it.

  61. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Have you done Elvis Costello… that’s an obvious choice if you haven’t already used it.

  62. thejonrmcleod says:

    With the talk of a 2012 redraft, I checked the stats of the drafted players. I was surprised that Galchenyuk only has two more career goals than Yakupov.

  63. rich says:

    I’m going to agree w/Rex and say that #1 priority for this summer is a goalie coach. Why goalies come here and crap the bed should be the #1 concern of this management team (ok, other than updating their resumes).

    When you look at FRJOHNK’s work (which is just outstanding) and see how the poor play of the goalies has sewered another season, you need to be asking why. And when you see goalies come here and under-perform…then leave and get straightened out – that’s brutal.

    I know they fired Chabot (about time), but did they really properly vette the new goal coach as much as they just realized that Chabot’s results were incredibly inept? We’ve not really seen any improvement this year and this has to be solved before next season.

    After that, I really can’t argue with LT’s list. You need a true #1 and you need several d-men. I like why Nelson has done so far with getting Yak, Lander and Marincin playing better.

    I also think they have a tough decision about a C to play w/Yak. While I like their play in the offensive zone, Roy does have liabilities in his own zone. Watching his line the last couple of games he tends to puck stare, not pick up his own man/or the trailer coming back and wanders. If you’re going to re-sign him because there is great chemistry w/Yak – you are really going to have to shelter that line next season.

  64. leadfarmer says:

    This penguins team is a very easy team to dislike. Not a team that can handle adversity either. They’ll make it in the playoffs until Fleury gives them 2 poor games and then they will fall apart.

  65. Dashingsilverfox says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    With the talk of a 2012 redraft, I checked the stats of the drafted players. I was surprised that Galchenyuk only has two more career goals than Yakupov.

    Unfortunately, Yakupov scored 17 goals, mostly in a few games, in the lockout season when he had a ridiculous 21% shooting percentage.

    In the two following seasons:

    Yakupov – 22G 49P

    Galchenyuk – 32G 72P

    In terms of P/60 5V5 this season:

    Yakupov – 1.01

    Galchenyuk – 1.99

    Considering the extreme Ozone stars and sheltering Yakupov receives, that’s a pretty bad number.

  66. gogliano says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    With the talk of a 2012 redraft, I checked the stats of the drafted players. I was surprised that Galchenyuk only has two more career goals than Yakupov.

    Do you have the numbers handy?

    I think Yak gets overly hammered because he (1) was the #1 selection (2) plays for a terrible team (plus/minus!!11!!) and (3) has a bad looking trendline. How different is the conversation if Yak was playing on a Nelson powerplay the last 1.5 years?

    ETA: If you arbitrarily subtract games in which Galchenyuk scores well his numbers suffer.

  67. Lowetide says:

    rich:
    I’m going to agree w/Rex and say that #1 priority for this summer is a goalie coach.Why goalies come here and crap the bed should be the #1 concern of this management team (ok, other than updating their resumes).

    When you look at FRJOHNK’s work (which is just outstanding) and see how the poor play of the goalies has sewered another season, you need to be asking why.And when you see goalies come here and under-perform…then leave and get straightened out – that’s brutal.

    I know they fired Chabot (about time), but did they really properly vette the new goal coach as much as they just realized that Chabot’s results were incredibly inept?We’ve not really seen any improvement this year and this has to be solved before next season.

    After that, I really can’t argue with LT’s list.You need a true #1 and you need several d-men.I like why Nelson has done so far with getting Yak, Lander and Marincin playing better.

    I also think they have a tough decision about a C to play w/Yak.While I like their play in the offensive zone, Roy does have liabilities in his own zone.Watching his line the last couple of games he tends to puck stare, not pick up his own man/or the trailer coming back and wanders.If you’re going to re-sign him because there is great chemistry w/Yak – you are really going to have to shelter that line next season.

    Oilers already have a new goalie coach, Dustin Schwartz.

  68. Lowetide says:

    In regard to the 2012 draft, I know people are sick of me saying it and maybe no one believes it. Wait five years. Nail’s story isn’t over.

  69. 719 says:

    In the outside chance we got Eichel or McDavid, why couldn’t we start them on the wing? Need an established center to play with them and teach them the ropes.

    McDavid/Eichel – Center – Yakupov sounds great and pushes pou down to the third line.

    Pou – Lander – Purcell – that line could put up 40 points and may be the mythical 3rd scoring line we have heard of but never witnessed.

  70. Unicorns says:

    Woodguy:
    Hope you don’t mind the thread hijack LT.

    Was tweeting about FLA’s D with RiversQ (@ThomsonCam) and needed a bigger space to flesh out an idea.

    We are seeing more coaches worry about zone starts for Dpairs than match ups.

    FLA has started Campbell-Ekblad 60%+ in the ozone

    EDM has started Jultz 60%+ in the ozone

    Other notable Dmen who get the same treatment:

    Hedman – TBY
    Boyle – NYR
    Green – WAS
    Yandle – NYR/ARZ
    Gunnarsson – STL

    Invariably these players always show up as “sheltered” on the QC charts.

    I think that a big, big reason they do is how QC is derived.

    Some derive it from TOI/gm, some from Expected Corsi, Relative +/- and others.

    Players who tend to take a lot of Dzone starts also tend to be the Boyd Gordon types.

    Here’s some of the NHL forwards with the toughest ZS

    Gaustad
    Nystrom
    Malholtra
    Hendricks
    Gordon
    Kruger
    Moore
    Smith
    Glendening
    Broziak
    Stajan
    MIller
    Desjardins
    Chipchura

    These players also invariably had less TOI than average, a negative RelCor (usually) and a negative relative +/- mostly due to starting in the dzone a ton.

    Coaches tend to put their best offensive players out for ozone starts so the men who populate the low OZS stat put up poor numbers relative to their team mates.

    The problem come from them then being considered “soft opposition”

    Looking at the list of names I wrote hardly any of those players are a walk in the park, so its a mis-characterization.

    I’m starting to become of the opinion to discount most QC ratings because they are reliant on stats that ignore ZS and unfairly ding the “defensively specialist” by referring to playing against him as being “sheltered”

    I was wondering about this as well today looking at WOI charts trying to suss if I can support Roy being signed which most seem on board with. I still think he gets pummeled where it counts and can’t get on side.

    How is it that Gordon has lower TOI/60 of Comp (which seems like a decent way to rate quality) than anyone but Lander? And why is his so low?

    Do other teams out their worst players in the Oilers O zone? Are they that bad? Give them a chance to pad the stats 🙂

    I have commented before that while I am definitely a stats guy they aren’t settled enough to be used other than very carefully. Basically the things that I have seen proven as true and valid beyond question are:

    Raw Corsi as a team metric
    Raw Fenwick as a team metric
    Score Effects
    Zone Starts affect scoring
    Clutch doesn’t exist
    Fighting helps nothing and nobody but orthodontists and plastic surgeons
    There are no big game goalies other than runs of luck. There are good goalies and less good goalies
    Luck is a big part of hockey

    So many of the other metrics haven’t been resolved conclusively. Am I missing something or am I right?

    frjohnk – great work, I think looking at shot locations says a lot that is valuable, but a ton of work at the moment no doubt

  71. thejonrmcleod says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    I’m not arguing that Yakupov has been better. But you’re obviously cherry picking. To be fair, let’s subtract two multi-goal games from Galchenyuk’s total goals.

  72. thejonrmcleod says:

    Let’s also calculate Yakupov’s goals per sixty minutes without Eakins as coach.

  73. Ca$h-Money! says:

    The pick was Yak or Murray, full stop. No GM is putting his career on the line taking a kid who hasn’t played all year first overall, unless he’s got McDavid level hype. It’s a non story.

  74. Dashingsilverfox says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    I’m not arguing that Yakupov has been better. But you’re obviously cherry picking. To be fair, let’s subtract two multi-goal games from Galchenyuk’s total goals.

    I’m not cherry picking.

    Unless you think shooting 21% over half a season is sustainable. I don’t.

    In the past 1 3/4 seasons, Yak’s shooting percentage is around 10% over 131 games.

    Galchenyuk’s percentage this season is a little high while Yak’s is a little low

    Seems like a more reasonable measure of talent than one hot streak.

  75. GCW_69 says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    With the talk of a 2012 redraft, I checked the stats of the drafted players. I was surprised that Galchenyuk only has two more career goals than Yakupov.

    How many more points? Galchenyuk was Yakopuv’s set up man. I would have expected him to have fewer goals, but potentially more points.

  76. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Dashingsilverfox: I’m not cherry picking.

    Unless you think shooting 21% over half a season is sustainable. I don’t.

    In the past 1 3/4 seasons, Yak’s shooting percentage is around 10% over 131 games.

    Galchenyuk’s percentage this season is a little high while Yak’s is a little low

    Seems like a more reasonable measure of talent than one hot streak.

    You use his 21% shooting season as an outlier but when he shoots at 7% this season, that is irrelevant?

    His shooting percentage the last 2 seasons is about 8% not 10%, as well.

  77. thejonrmcleod says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    Remember the rumour that Garth Snow wanted to give up all of his draft picks for the number two pick in order to draft Murray?

  78. LadiesloveSmid says:

    GCW_69: How many more points? Galchenyuk was Yakopuv’s set up man. I would have expected him to have fewer goals, but potentially more points.

    19 more points in 1 more game. It was pretty close to start the year, but Galchenyuk has really taken off. Though he was placed in a much better situation so who really knows. Not even 3 years after they were drafted

  79. Pouzar says:

    Remember when Eberle never passed to Yak b/c he hated him?

    “I had an empty net and I won’t say I panicked but I got overexcited and fumbled it a bit. We’d talked on the faceoff (about finding Yakupov). As soon as I fumbled it, my next instinct was to go to Yak.”

  80. thejonrmcleod says:

    GCW_69,

    It’s 99-80 in favour of Galchenyuk, as I expected.

  81. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    Hope you don’t mind the thread hijack LT.

    Was tweeting about FLA’s D with RiversQ (@ThomsonCam) and needed a bigger space to flesh out an idea.

    We are seeing more coaches worry about zone starts for Dpairs than match ups.

    FLA has started Campbell-Ekblad 60%+ in the ozone

    EDM has started Jultz 60%+ in the ozone

    Other notable Dmen who get the same treatment:

    Hedman – TBY
    Boyle – NYR
    Green – WAS
    Yandle – NYR/ARZ
    Gunnarsson – STL

    Invariably these players always show up as “sheltered” on the QC charts.

    I think that a big, big reason they do is how QC is derived.

    Some derive it from TOI/gm, some from Expected Corsi, Relative +/- and others.

    Players who tend to take a lot of Dzone starts also tend to be the Boyd Gordon types.

    Here’s some of the NHL forwards with the toughest ZS

    Gaustad
    Nystrom
    Malholtra
    Hendricks
    Gordon
    Kruger
    Moore
    Smith
    Glendening
    Broziak
    Stajan
    MIller
    Desjardins
    Chipchura

    These players also invariably had less TOI than average, a negative RelCor (usually) and a negative relative +/- mostly due to starting in the dzone a ton.

    Coaches tend to put their best offensive players out for ozone starts so the men who populate the low OZS stat put up poor numbers relative to their team mates.

    The problem come from them then being considered “soft opposition”

    Looking at the list of names I wrote hardly any of those players are a walk in the park, so its a mis-characterization.

    I’m starting to become of the opinion to discount most QC ratings because they are reliant on stats that ignore ZS and unfairly ding the “defensively specialist” by referring to playing against him as being “sheltered”

    Finally someone else. I’ve been bitching about Qualcomp for years. I just don’t like beating the same drum over and over here, because it is so tedious. Thank you for this post.

  82. Unicorns says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    The pick was Yak or Murray, full stop. No GM is putting his career on the line taking a kid who hasn’t played all year first overall, unless he’s got McDavid level hype. It’s a non story.

    I was hoping with all the wrongs they do they’d take a flyer on Galchenyuk anyway. Got it right unfortunately. Or fortunately if it butterfly effects them getting McEichel this year.

  83. rich says:

    Lowetide,

    Yes they do. But what we don’t know – and may not know for sometime is what kind of impact he will have.

    Not trying to re-litigate the issue here, but how qualified is he, how much vetting did they do in putting him place. I’m one who actually thinks it was right of management to not immediately hire Nelson – see how the rest of the season unfolded and make sure we don’t have something like what TOR has with Horachek. Would it make/would it have made sense to do the same thing with the goalie coach as well?

    Happy to be proven wrong, but it’s a fair question given the track record.

  84. Dashingsilverfox says:

    LadiesloveSmid: You use his 21% shooting season as an outlier but when he shoots at 7% this season, that is irrelevant?

    His shooting percentage the last 2 seasons is about 8% not 10%, as well.

    12/13 – 21%

    13/14 – 9%

    14/15 – 7.1%

    Career: 10.9%

    I was intrigued by the comment about Yakupov pre/post Eakins firing on Dec. 15.

    Post Eakins Firing – 36GP 7G 17P (0.47 PPG)

    Pre Eakins Firing – 32GP 4G 8P (0.25 PPG)

    It certainly appears there has been a big jump in production but once again his performance has been very streaky.

    Jan. – 12GP 1G 3P (0.25 PPG)

    Feb. – 12GP 4G 9P (0.75 PPG)

    Mar. – 6GP 2G 4P (0.67PPG)

    There certainly seems to be some progression there so perhaps it’s because he’s getting more comfortable and confident under Nelson.

  85. spoiler says:

    frjohnk:
    Thanks LT for sharing.

    I will do this exercise at the end of the year as well.

    Probably compare the oilers with Petry and without.

    Arrow save percentage
    Ward 85.7%
    Scrivens86%
    League Average 87%

    Price 89.8%

    Perimeter save percentage
    Ward 97.3%
    Scrivens94.8%
    League Average 96.6%

    Price 97.7%

    For me its really between Price and Ward, if we have to give the same amount of assets, Id be leaning towards Ward.

    That was a lot of work you put into your study. Thank you for taking the time and effort. Well done.

    I hate to press for more, but I think we really need to see those numbers at 5 on 5. I’m not sure they will change much, but IMO EVs are the most significant stats for this study, in order to remove the effect of PKing systems.

    I am also not sure that “worst” is the correct term for teams that allow more perimeter shots against. But I know you have to call it something for clarity purposes and I can’t think of a better word. My point being is that if fewer arrow shots against comes at a cost of more perimeter shots against, then the more perimeter shots against is okay.

    And you can see that NYR and FLA show up in the “Best” category for Arrow, and “Worst” for Perimeter. So there may be some sort of trade-off going on. LA is a good team either way, and I expect MIN is pretty high up on the perimeter list too (12.73 would be their raw number).

    Wonderful work, FRJohnK, just wonderful.

  86. frjohnk says:

    Here are some more stats relating to the team defence stat I did.

    Here is the save % of goalies of shots from the “arrow” and perimeter areaswho have played more than just a couple of games.

    First one is save % of shots from the arrow spot. ( high and medium danger areas) Price and Schneider are the best full time goalies. You will find league average in the middle at 0.870

    Arrow Save %
    Andrew.Hammond 0.928
    Joni.Ortio 0.926
    Antti.Raanta 0.904
    Calvin.Pickard 0.901
    Scott.Darling 0.900
    Andrei.Vasilevskiy 0.899
    Carey.Price 0.898
    Dan.Ellis 0.892
    Cory.Schneider 0.889
    Braden.Holtby 0.888
    Cam.Talbot 0.888
    Brian.Elliott 0.886
    Semyon.Varlamov 0.886
    Jaroslav.Halak 0.886
    Devan.Dubnyk 0.885
    Marc-Andre.Fleury 0.883
    Craig.Anderson 0.882
    Henrik.Lundqvist 0.882
    Tuukka.Rask 0.882
    Niklas.Svedberg 0.881
    Pekka.Rinne 0.880
    Steve.Mason 0.879
    Jonathan.Bernier 0.878
    Corey.Crawford 0.878
    Roberto.Luongo 0.877
    Ben.Bishop 0.875
    Jonas.Hiller 0.875
    Ryan.Miller 0.875
    Sergei.Bobrovsky 0.874
    Eddie.Lack 0.874
    Michal.Neuvirth 0.873
    Frederik.Andersen 0.873
    Jake.Allen 0.873
    Ondrej.Pavelec 0.871
    LEAGUE AVG 0.870
    Antti.Niemi 0.870
    Robin.Lehner 0.869
    Michael.Hutchinson 0.868
    Karri.Ramo 0.868
    Thomas.Greiss 0.868
    Martin.Jones 0.868
    Keith.Kinkaid 0.867
    Carter.Hutton 0.867
    Jimmy.Howard 0.867
    Jonathan.Quick 0.865
    Petr.Mrazek 0.865
    James.Reimer 0.863
    Ben.Scrivens 0.860
    Jonas.Gustavsson 0.859
    Kari.Lehtonen 0.857
    Cam.Ward 0.857
    Reto.Berra 0.856
    Alex.Stalock 0.856
    Dustin.Tokarski 0.854
    Jhonas.Enroth 0.854
    Anton.Khudobin 0.853
    Darcy.Kuemper 0.849
    John.Gibson 0.848
    Mike.Smith 0.848
    Viktor.Fasth 0.843
    Anders.Lindback 0.838
    Chad.Johnson 0.837
    Al.Montoya 0.828
    Rob.Zepp 0.822
    Scott.Clemmensen 0.821
    Ray.Emery 0.820
    Niklas.Backstrom 0.819
    Matt.Hackett 0.806

    This is save % of shots from the perimeter. ( low danger areas) . You will find league average in the middle at 0.966

    John.Gibson 0.987
    Dustin.Tokarski 0.984
    Eddie.Lack 0.981
    Corey.Crawford 0.981
    Alex.Stalock 0.981
    Marc-Andre.Fleury 0.978
    Andrew.Hammond 0.978
    Steve.Mason 0.977
    Carey.Price 0.977
    Cory.Schneider 0.977
    Karri.Ramo 0.976
    Scott.Darling 0.974
    Devan.Dubnyk 0.974
    Pekka.Rinne 0.974
    Jonathan.Quick 0.974
    Jonas.Gustavsson 0.974
    Anton.Khudobin 0.974
    Ray.Emery 0.973
    Niklas.Svedberg 0.973
    Cam.Ward 0.973
    Antti.Niemi 0.971
    Jimmy.Howard 0.971
    Niklas.Backstrom 0.970
    Tuukka.Rask 0.970
    Semyon.Varlamov 0.970
    Michal.Neuvirth 0.970
    Kari.Lehtonen 0.969
    Jonas.Hiller 0.969
    Antti.Raanta 0.969
    Ben.Bishop 0.968
    Petr.Mrazek 0.968
    Keith.Kinkaid 0.967
    Michael.Hutchinson 0.967
    Craig.Anderson 0.967
    Calvin.Pickard 0.967
    Ondrej.Pavelec 0.966
    LEAGUE AVG 0.966
    Martin.Jones 0.966
    Brian.Elliott 0.966
    Cam.Talbot 0.965
    Chad.Johnson 0.965
    Braden.Holtby 0.965
    Jonathan.Bernier 0.964
    Sergei.Bobrovsky 0.964
    Roberto.Luongo 0.963
    Mike.Smith 0.963
    Darcy.Kuemper 0.963
    Rob.Zepp 0.962
    Frederik.Andersen 0.961
    Henrik.Lundqvist 0.961
    James.Reimer 0.961
    Ryan.Miller 0.960
    Thomas.Greiss 0.959
    Al.Montoya 0.959
    Matt.Hackett 0.958
    Jhonas.Enroth 0.958
    Anders.Lindback 0.957
    Reto.Berra 0.952
    Carter.Hutton 0.952
    Jaroslav.Halak 0.951
    Andrei.Vasilevskiy 0.948
    Ben.Scrivens 0.948
    Viktor.Fasth 0.946
    Robin.Lehner 0.944
    Jake.Allen 0.943
    Joni.Ortio 0.935
    Scott.Clemmensen 0.933
    Dan.Ellis 0.907

  87. thejonrmcleod says:

    In the 85 non-Eakins-coached games Nail Yakupov has played, he has 24 G and 24 A.

  88. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    Scrivens and Fasth near the bottom of the “low danger areas” matches what we saw and talked about for most of Eakin’s tenure this year.

    They couldn’t stop a beachball from the outside.

    Add to that a high volume of odd man rushes and you have Eakins getting fired.

  89. John Chambers says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    In the 85 non-Eakins-coached games Nail Yakupov has played, he has 24 G and 24 A.

    Eakins is permanently off my Christmas Card list.

    All I want for summer is a 2-way Centre who can compliment Yak offensively. And a 22-min / night defender. And a goalie. And another defender.

  90. commonfan14 says:

    Acumen:
    Diesel,

    Once upon a time I cheered on the Oilers in a meaningless endo-of-season game that they won against Vancouver. It moved us out of Monahan territory. I was fine with it all of that summer as it meant we were moving toward something as a team. Then the last 2 years happened.

    I think MacT would have taken Nurse anyway.

    I don’t say that to criticize him, btw.

  91. Woodguy says:

    Man up on defensive mistakes and make it right.

    This is the key.

    The Oiler’s D is populated by:

    1 Dman who can be a 2 with a good partner and a 3/4 without a good partner (Fayne)
    2 Rookies who have a future on the top 4, but are best served in the 3rd pairing in the near future (Klefbom, Marincin)
    1 Offensive minded Dman who should be put in the “Yandle” spot on the 3rd pair (Schultz)
    1 Mid-career Dman who’s best career results away from a very good Dman have been on 3rd pair (Nikitin)
    1 End of career Dman who’s game just isn’t at the NHL level anymore. Great career, good player, but time catches everyone (Ference)

    So that’s

    Nothing-Nothing
    Nothing – Fayne
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Marincin
    Nikitin

    If your top two can handle the toughs then:

    Nothing-Nothing
    Marincin-Fayne
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Nikitin

    Is plausible for a some-what competitive team if Marincin progresses in a straight line (or swaps with Klef if he doesn’t)

    Now go and fill the top two slots and don’t give up any of Fayne, Klefbom and Marincin while doing so.

  92. Woodguy says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    In the 85 non-Eakins-coached games Nail Yakupov has played, he has 24 G and 24 A.

    Do your exercise again, but this time remove Gagner and Draisaitl as his C’s and see what you find.

  93. ashley says:

    This is great work FRJOHNK. The difference in arrow vs perimeter is significant. I am inclined to believe that teams and even individual defencemen will be more skilled at preventing open arrow shots.

    This is a concept that has been raised by several posters over the years, most insistently by Rickibear, but summarily dismissed by folks here who believe that shot quality makes no difference, just shots or shot attempts matter highlighting the importance of the all-telling corsi/fenwick. Not to mention it’s a lot easier to calculate when you can dismiss shot location and quality and all the other things.

    There is even data to support this which I’ve reviewed, but have not yet been convinced.

    There are seemingly other corsi confounders than just location. The distance of a defender from the puck for one. The number of defenders in the way. Screened vs unscreened shots. etc.

    There is probably a lot we still don’t understand, and it’s entirely possible that many years from now corsi will seem rather coarse much like +/- is for us now.

    There are potentially large differences in the quality of players who end up with similar corsi. An anecdote is the game the other night on the Yak goal. 90% of NHL’ers in Eberle’s position there, handcuffed by the puck point blank to the net, will attempt some sort of weak shot rather than pass up the scoring opportunity. Eberle realizes any attempt on net is going to be weak or even miss altogether, so he passes to Yak who is in a position to unload.

    Eberle has a knack for this kind of play. He won’t register as many corsi events because he doesn’t just skate in the zone and shoot from the side boards near the blueline. He wants to create a high percentage opportunity. He is penalized in the corsi stat for smart hockey.

    Some players shoot the second the puck is on their stick in the o zone. Some of them are Oilers.

  94. flyfish1168 says:

    With the handling of Nail by eakins with minutes played, PP time and HS its easy for Alex to have more points. Plekanec has been Alex’s main center man most of the time where Nail never really had a decent center to play along side. Lets not talk about Alex being a center man, he has been playing LW since he came into he league. Habs have a pretty good team. I believe all these things makes a difference where each player is in points. I still believe Nail is the better player. JMHO

  95. Woodguy says:

    Pajamah,

    So basically, we need a Horcov to shelter Yak, a Petry type on defense, and a Dubnyk in goal.
    BUT WHERE CAN THE OILERS EVER FIND THESE PLAYERS???!!!

    That is awesome.

    Very telling.

  96. Lowetide says:

    This thread is informative and hilarious. WG’s defensive depth chart and Pajamah’s closer line put it over the top.

  97. Woodguy says:

    ashley,

    This is a concept that has been raised by several posters over the years, most insistently by Rickibear, but summarily dismissed by folks here who believe that shot quality makes no difference, just shots or shot attempts matter highlighting the importance of the all-telling corsi/fenwick. Not to mention it’s a lot easier to calculate when you can dismiss shot location and quality and all the other things

    That’s a mis-characterization of both what Ricki was saying and the response.

    The Dman is not 100% responsible for stopping the puck.

    You cannot characterize a Dman’s play by how many goals go in.

    At all.

    You can judge a Dman on shot volume, and now that the info is becoming available, type of shot volume, but you MUST know what the shot volume are for the players you are comparing them to and who they are playing against.

    There is a reason that ONSV% is not a stat that is repeatable from year to year.

    Its because Dmen are not goalies.

    Extreme example to make this clear:

    Dman 1 allows 100 “arrow” shots and Dman 2 allows 70 and they both play against the exact same players for the exact same amount of time.

    Dman 1’s goalie has a .900 SV% and Dman 2’s has a .840SV%

    Dman 1 has 10 GA and Dman 2 has 11 GA in the same amount of time against the same players.

    By Ricki’s calculation Dman 1 would be superior because he has a better GAON/60 when clearly that’s not true.

    That’s the issue.

  98. Ryan says:

    spoiler: Finally someone else. I’ve been bitching about Qualcomp for years. I just don’t like beating the same drum over and over here, because it is so tedious. Thank you for this post.

    This is an old discussion which is why I was surprised when WG thought he had an epiphany.

    It’s sort of like the old joke that goes like this… One in four people suffer from a mental disorder. Pick three friends, if they’re okay, you’re it!

    Sure it’s not necessarily easy to score on adept checkers… But else who’s the soft comp? If you’re starting 60% of your shifts in the ozone and playing lots of minutes, you’re going to see a healthy dose of the checking line.

    Look at it this way, it Gazdick’s on the ice, you either want the gentleman’s agreement 4rth line knuckle draggers against him or the other team’s checking line. You certainly don’t want their top six facing him.

  99. jfry says:

    i wish they’d try Lander with Yak. He might be the responsible center yak needs. i’d certainly consider trying a line down the stretch that is roy/lander/yak. let lander take the defensive responsibility in the defensive end and switch to the wing in the offensive end and let roy play center there.

    i seem to recall Kurri being used similarly when he was with gretz.

    _____________________

    also, frjohnk. your work lately has been awesome. and i know that some of the foundation is from RTB’s constant talk about box protection. and i like the idea in theory that RTB presents in theory, but there are some holes. for instance, a player might be a great box protection player with absolutely zero ability to get the puck out, so all he’s doing is protecting the box ad nauseum

    i really feel that this gets back to Tippet’s comment about defense that we’ve quoted a few times where he’s saying that fistric’s box protection isn’t as valuable as niskanen’s puck movement skills:

    “We had a player that was supposed to be a great, shut-down defenseman. He was supposedly the be-all, end-all of defensemen. But when you did a 10-game analysis of him, you found out he was defending all the time because he can’t move the puck.

    “Then we had another guy, who supposedly couldn’t defend a lick. Well, he was defending only 20 percent of the time because he’s making good plays out of our end. He may not be the strongest defender, but he’s only doing it 20 percent of the time. So the equation works out better the other way. I ended up trading the other defenseman.”

    if we’re looking to talk about defensive prowess i think there needs to be some coloration between box protection and then moving the puck out after one attempt. ie) a great box defender would allow one crappy shot and then vaccum it under control and get the puck successfully going the other way. it’s sort of the flip side of dellow’s belief that 7% of shots go in, but 25% of rebounds do. i really feel that a temporal element needs to be added to this notion of defensive protection. without looking at stats, i imagine that pronger would rank well here, because he protected the box and then could deftly move the puck. aulie on the other hand can maybe protect the box, but i imagine he’s doing it a lot more with less success moving the puck.

    i feel like the temporal corsi events we’ve been discussing can be combined with the defensive stats to really get a read on individual player performance and not just teams.

    _________________________

    also, i think this QC conversation that WG has brought up today is important, because i think it gets used in so many conversations but is just allowed to exist out there nebulously.

    i feel very much the same way about corsi right now, with how we’ve tried to relate it artificially to “pocession” (*smirk). i just don’t feel that it’s an actual indication of who has the puck and is controlling the play. there was the example above of eberle getting into the arrow areas and sacrificing corsi opportunities for high quality scoring opportunities.

    in a 60 minute game, that averages 1 shot/minute, corsi is a slightly better indication of pocession than shots, but marginally. it doesn’t take into account those big shifts from guys like george laraque who just cycled in the corner for instance, or where there is 3 minutes of play that shifts back and forth with no corsi events but one team completely dominating zone play (the boston vs. calgary game last week comes to mind where boston had total dominant play in the third, but failed to generate corsi events). anyhow, i like corsi as a larger view of shot generation, but i feel like it’s given too much emphasis as a pocession metric.

    i can’t wait for sports vu to come out. player heat maps is going to revolutionize how we thing about puck movement and player value. it’s completely changed how the NBA thinks about ball movement and shifting defense. it’ll be a boon to hockey analytics.

    anyhow, my .02.

    i’ve really like the discussions lately and wish i wasn’t so busy, so i could participate more. good work everyone. welcome back DSF

  100. jfry says:

    the tippet quote comes from this good article which has been linked before
    http://www.defendingbigd.com/2012/4/13/2941077/dave-tippett-defense-mark-fistric-matt-niskanen

  101. Ryan says:

    ashley,

    i often wonder if the Oilers were tracking Corsi in the days when Moreau was the captain. I have so many memories burned into my brain of Moreau in his latter Oilers days flying down the wing and rifling a shot square into the goalie’s crest.

  102. Woodguy says:

    Ryan: This is an old discussion which is why I was surprised when WG thought he had an epiphany.

    It’s sort of like the old joke that goes like this…One in four people suffer from a mental disorder.Pick three friends, if they’re okay, you’re it!

    Sure it’s not necessarily easy to score on adept checkers…But else who’s the soft comp?If you’re starting 60% of your shifts in the ozone and playing lots of minutes, you’re going to see a healthy dose of the checking line.

    Look at it this way, it Gazdick’s on the ice, you either want the gentleman’s agreement 4rth line knuckle draggers against him or the other team’s checking line.You certainly don’t want their top six facing him.

    If you read the post closely you’ll see I was spelling something out for RiversQ

    It may be an old argument, but its one that hasn’t be resolved.

    I didn’t think I had an epiphany either.

  103. Woodguy says:

    ashley,

    There are seemingly other corsi confounders than just location. The distance of a defender from the puck for one. The number of defenders in the way. Screened vs unscreened shots. etc.

    How does any of this “confound corsi”?

    What exactly do you think corsi tells us and how would shot location confound it?

  104. stush18 says:

    frjohnk:
    Here are some more stats relating to the team defence stat I did.

    Here is the save % of goalies of shots from the “arrow” and perimeter areaswho have played more than just a couple of games.

    First one is save % of shots from the arrow spot.( high and medium danger areas)Price and Schneider are the best full time goalies.You will find league average in the middle at 0.870

    Arrow Save %
    Andrew.Hammond0.928
    Joni.Ortio0.926
    Antti.Raanta0.904
    Calvin.Pickard0.901
    Scott.Darling0.900
    Andrei.Vasilevskiy0.899
    Carey.Price0.898
    Dan.Ellis0.892
    Cory.Schneider0.889
    Braden.Holtby0.888
    Cam.Talbot0.888
    Brian.Elliott0.886
    Semyon.Varlamov0.886
    Jaroslav.Halak0.886
    Devan.Dubnyk0.885
    Marc-Andre.Fleury0.883
    Craig.Anderson0.882
    Henrik.Lundqvist0.882
    Tuukka.Rask0.882
    Niklas.Svedberg0.881
    Pekka.Rinne0.880
    Steve.Mason0.879
    Jonathan.Bernier0.878
    Corey.Crawford0.878
    Roberto.Luongo0.877
    Ben.Bishop0.875
    Jonas.Hiller0.875
    Ryan.Miller0.875
    Sergei.Bobrovsky0.874
    Eddie.Lack0.874
    Michal.Neuvirth0.873************************************
    Frederik.Andersen0.873
    Jake.Allen0.873
    Ondrej.Pavelec0.871
    LEAGUE AVG0.870
    Antti.Niemi0.870
    Robin.Lehner0.869
    Michael.Hutchinson0.868
    Karri.Ramo0.868
    Thomas.Greiss0.868
    Martin.Jones0.868
    Keith.Kinkaid0.867
    Carter.Hutton0.867
    Jimmy.Howard0.867
    Jonathan.Quick0.865
    Petr.Mrazek0.865
    James.Reimer0.863
    Ben.Scrivens0.860
    Jonas.Gustavsson0.859
    Kari.Lehtonen0.857
    Cam.Ward0.857
    Reto.Berra0.856
    Alex.Stalock0.856
    Dustin.Tokarski0.854
    Jhonas.Enroth0.854
    Anton.Khudobin0.853
    Darcy.Kuemper0.849
    John.Gibson0.848
    Mike.Smith0.848
    Viktor.Fasth0.843
    Anders.Lindback0.838
    Chad.Johnson0.837
    Al.Montoya0.828
    Rob.Zepp0.822
    Scott.Clemmensen0.821
    Ray.Emery0.820
    Niklas.Backstrom0.819
    Matt.Hackett0.806

    This is save % of shots from the perimeter.( low danger areas).You will find league average in the middle at 0.966

    John.Gibson0.987
    Dustin.Tokarski0.984
    Eddie.Lack0.981
    Corey.Crawford0.981
    Alex.Stalock0.981
    Marc-Andre.Fleury0.978
    Andrew.Hammond0.978
    Steve.Mason0.977
    Carey.Price0.977
    Cory.Schneider0.977
    Karri.Ramo0.976
    Scott.Darling0.974
    Devan.Dubnyk0.974
    Pekka.Rinne0.974
    Jonathan.Quick0.974
    Jonas.Gustavsson0.974
    Anton.Khudobin0.974
    Ray.Emery0.973
    Niklas.Svedberg0.973
    Cam.Ward0.973
    Antti.Niemi0.971
    Jimmy.Howard0.971
    Niklas.Backstrom0.970
    Tuukka.Rask0.970
    Semyon.Varlamov0.970
    Michal.Neuvirth0.970*********************************
    Kari.Lehtonen0.969
    Jonas.Hiller0.969
    Antti.Raanta0.969
    Ben.Bishop0.968
    Petr.Mrazek0.968
    Keith.Kinkaid0.967
    Michael.Hutchinson0.967
    Craig.Anderson0.967
    Calvin.Pickard0.967
    Ondrej.Pavelec0.966
    LEAGUE AVG0.966
    Martin.Jones0.966
    Brian.Elliott0.966
    Cam.Talbot0.965
    Chad.Johnson0.965
    Braden.Holtby0.965
    Jonathan.Bernier0.964
    Sergei.Bobrovsky0.964
    Roberto.Luongo0.963
    Mike.Smith0.963
    Darcy.Kuemper0.963
    Rob.Zepp0.962
    Frederik.Andersen0.961
    Henrik.Lundqvist0.961
    James.Reimer0.961
    Ryan.Miller0.960
    Thomas.Greiss0.959
    Al.Montoya0.959
    Matt.Hackett0.958
    Jhonas.Enroth0.958
    Anders.Lindback0.957
    Reto.Berra0.952
    Carter.Hutton0.952
    Jaroslav.Halak0.951
    Andrei.Vasilevskiy0.948
    Ben.Scrivens0.948
    Viktor.Fasth0.946
    Robin.Lehner0.944
    Jake.Allen0.943
    Joni.Ortio0.935
    Scott.Clemmensen0.933
    Dan.Ellis0.907

    ive highlighted nuevirth as he is the goalie i think we should be going after this year. Im not understanding the lack of love for him. Young goalie, been a starter, and put up thise stats in buffalo this year.

    All it costs to get him is money. Otherwise we are giving up draft picks and players in an attempt to get goalies who are backups on solid teams, or starters who have an average history.

    Give him 2×4 or 3×3 and let him run with it. Im guessing were looking at a bobrovsky/dubnyk career path here. Never fully been given the reins.

  105. ashley says:

    Woodguy,

    Oh, I see. I guess I didn’t entirely understand Ricki’s entire position.

    The point is that “a shot is a shot is a shot” does not wash easily. I think it’s a valid criticism of the corsi stat when comparing player quality.

  106. ashley says:

    Woodguy:
    ashley,

    There are seemingly other corsi confounders than just location. The distance of a defender from the puck for one. The number of defenders in the way. Screened vs unscreened shots. etc.

    How does any of this “confound corsi”?

    What exactly do you think corsi tells us and how would shot location confound it?

    If a goal is more likely or less likely at different locations on the ice, then simply counting shots for and against will be a crude measure of player and team quality.

    Perhaps confound is not the right word here.

    Speaking of a few years ago, I don’t think corsi meant what we think corsi meant. It’s crude. Impure. Adulterated. Still valuable, but more work needs to be done to understand the things that make it impure.

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