CHOOSE YOUR POISON

Craig MacTavish has to find a goalie and chances are he’ll go with ‘expensive and proven’ as opposed to ‘Martin Jones’ during the summer procurement window. The list of possible goaltenders this year is pretty large, as wobbly G in Chicago and an emerging one in Detroit may mean the market is flush, plus a lot. There’s no earthly reason Edmonton should overpay for a goalie, which is different than saying they won’t overpay for a goalie.

 THE CONTENDERS

  1. G Devan Dubnyk, Minnesota. A .935EV save percentage is incredible but he’s not coming here. I’d bet my house.
  2. G Craig Anderson, Ottawa. A .929EV save percentage would look glorious in Edmonton. Age and cap hit of $4.2M, UFA summer 2018 and he’ll be expensive to acquire.
  3. G Corey Crawford, Chicago. A .928EV save percentage and a big contract. ‘Hawks have Darling and Raanta and miles of cap issues.
  4. G Antti Niemi, San Jose. A .921EV save percentage and a 1983 birthday. Oilers have to give only money for him.
  5. G Jonathan Bernier, Toronto. A .921EV save percentage and an RFA summer.
  6. G Martin Jones, Los Angeles. A .921EV save percentage and a contract in the range of a CFL Quarterback. RFA. I love his future.
  7. G Frederik Andersen, Anaheim. A .919EV save percentage, $1.3M next season and then RFA. He’s a little wobbly but young.
  8. G Jimmy Howard, Detroit. A .918EV save percentage, $5.292M cap hit and he’s signed to 2019 summer. Petr Mrazek is rumored to be pushing him.

MACT!

Most people would probably go with the proven guy in MacT’s spot, I think he’ll get a veteran coach and a veteran goaltender this summer. If he doesn’t get this right, there’s every chance we see another GM next summer. As with coach (I’d keep Nelson), for me Martin Jones is such a good option it’s crazy. Younger, inexpensive, good track record and if you succeed the problem is solved for years and years.

I think we could get San Jose’s coach (Todd McLellan) and goalie (Antti Niemi). If I were asked to bet on what we see this summer, that would be my guess in terms of problem solving. It isn’t a terrible option—Jimmy Howard or Corey Crawford win the award here, as they are expensive AND would cost a lot to acquire—but for me the fact Scrivens didn’t work out this year is a poor reason to abandon what MacT knows to be the better team building option.

We wait.

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121 Responses to "CHOOSE YOUR POISON"

  1. KozyMel says:

    All of those goalies except Bernier have something the Oilers can’t offer – an NHL calibre defence to play in front of them.

    With the defence the Oilers have, there is no way in hell a good #1 goalie is going to come to Edmonton to watch his career crumble…..

  2. D says:

    KozyMel:
    All of those goalies except Bernier have something the Oilers can’t offer – an NHL calibre defence to playin front of them.

    With the defence the Oilers have, there is no way in hell a good #1 goalie is going to come to Edmonton to watch his career crumble…..

    This hits the issue right on the money.

  3. Lowetide says:

    KozyMel:
    All of those goalies except Bernier have something the Oilers can’t offer – an NHL calibre defence to playin front of them.

    With the defence the Oilers have, there is no way in hell a good #1 goalie is going to come to Edmonton to watch his career crumble…..

    the great GM Cyndi Lauper once said money changes everything and she’s right. I have zero doubt MacT could find a number Niemi would agree to but the dollars and term would be dear.

  4. prefonmich says:

    I am really happy for Dubnyk and wonder how things might have been different if MacT would’ve shown confidence in his goalie. I wish Mac would call Dubnyk this summer and get the response “if you have to ask the question…”

  5. blackdog says:

    Hey LT, remember me?!

    I think Crawford could be had for a song. Hawks are dying with Cap issues and moving him would solve a big part of that. Top four Dmen and top six forwards are a lot harder to replace than a goalie and he makes more than Seabrook and Sharp as well.

    I wouldn’t take him but I think you could get him for a whole lot of nothing.

  6. Lowetide says:

    blackdog:
    Hey LT, remember me?!

    I think Crawford could be had for a song. Hawks are dying with Cap issues and moving him would solve a big part of that. Top four Dmen and top six forwards are a lot harder to replace than a goalie and he makes more than Seabrook and Sharp as well.

    I wouldn’t take him but I think you could get him for a whole lot of nothing.

    Then that’s what MacT is going to do! (shoots self) Nice to see you!! 🙂

  7. spoiler says:

    Cam Talbot is not a contender?

  8. murphy says:

    Ottawa has to be the target, a goalie there will be dealt. Hammond will be there no matter what, who is with him is the question. If you are the Sens do you risk a Hammond/Lehner combination and neither of them become a bonafide #1?

    I think they go with Anderson/Hammond and deal Lehner for scraps as he is at a pretty low value.

    I’d offer the Habs 2nd rounder and Purcell for Wiernoich and Lehner.

  9. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    Cam Talbot is not a contender?

    I don’t see the Rangers moving him. He’s inexpensive and excellent insurance against losing their aging starter.

  10. stevezie says:

    Lowetide: the great GM Cyndi Lauper once said money changes everything and she’s right

    She had by far the most interesting chapter in Behind The Moves.

    blackdog,

    If Crawford goes for anything more than “I’ll take that contract off you” I’ll have no idea why. You might even be able to get them to retain.
    Of course, Gomez somehow got McDonaugh so who knows. GMs just wanna have fun.

    murphy,

    I’m cheering like crazy for the Hamburgler because every game he wins makes the Sens that much more likely to see him as part of the future. Lehner or Anderson don’t even need to come here; their very availability will cheapen the goalie market.

    LT, thoughts on FRJohn’s Neuvirth initiative? His stats are pretty experimental, but I thought he made a good case.

  11. admiralmark says:

    The only option on that list I dont like is Niemi. In addition to his age I just don’t think he has any experience other then playing behind established D and elite NHL teams. The amount of cash its gonna take which I assume is in the 5-6 Million x3-4 year range is too risky for this team at this juncture,

    I’d trade Schultz for Bernier straight up if I could.

  12. Lowetide says:

    stevezie: She had by far the most interesting chapter in Behind The Moves.

    LT, thoughts on FRJohn’s Neuvirth initiative? His stats are pretty experimental, but I thought he made a good case.

    I almost put him there but wanted to highlight Jones as the reasonable option. I do like Neuvirth and frJohn’s insight is impressive.

  13. geowal says:

    Lowetide:
    Weekend Update.

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/3/29/weekend-update-52c99a18-f9e7-4751-9a1a-39b8a11a5c97

    That was depressing (the barons part). I didn’t even know Khaira was done.

  14. geowal says:

    So what’s the deal with Fasth? He still alive or what? I know he’s hurt but he doesn’t even show up on the oiler injury report anymore? Done for season? I don’t remember what happened.

  15. Younger Oil says:

    I wonder what the maximum we could sign Jones to on an offer sheet is without LA matching it is.

    If we offer something like a 3 year, $10M deal, I believe the compensation would only be a 2nd round pick, and I doubt LA would be too keen on matching it because that would mean paying their goaltenders over $9M a year.

    Only issue I see with that is LA matching the deal, then trading Jones to anyone but us for a second round pick, or possibly more, leaving MacT nothing but a bad (worse?) reputation amongst the GM community.

  16. HiddenDarts says:

    Unless we have actual information directly from Stan Bowman that Crawford is available, let’s PLEASE not speculate that he is available. Everyday this blog brings up terrifying new ideas of how MacT might destroy this team not only now, but for the long term. Crawford is probably the worst option of worst options available. That contract is absolute death.

    I would rather frankly get Niemi, who is probably equally bad. Let’s not forget, though, that the Hawks let Niemi go because they KNEW he wasn’t worth paying. In front of a decent Sharks defense, he is still not worth paying.

    I still think trade the 1st if you have to to get Bernier. It is a dramatic overpay, but far less than the dramatic overpay in term that would be necessary to get Niemi.

    This year, let’s pick up the “Dubnyk Comeback Story of 2015-2016” in Bernier, instead of the “Khabibulin of 2015-2021” that Niemi might become.

  17. Mr DeBakey says:

    “I think we could get San Jose’s coach (Todd McLellan)”

    But the question is why?
    Why?
    What would he do, what has he shown he can do, that the Oilers need?

    I don’t think much of their Goalie either.

    And to show what a funny ol’ world it is, despite the above, I like the Sharks.

  18. Surly says:

    Younger Oil:

    Only issue I see with that is LA matching the deal, then trading Jones to anyone but us for a second round pick, or possibly more, leaving MacT nothing but a bad (worse?) reputation amongst the GM community.

    I don’t believe a team can trade a player they matched an RFA offer sheet for a period of 12 months after matching.

  19. Surly says:

    geowal:
    So what’s the deal with Fasth? He still alive or what? I know he’s hurt but he doesn’t even show up on the oiler injury report anymore? Done for season? I don’t remember what happened.

    I think it was a groin pull when he got deked out of his shorts on a shootout

    Update:

    Wheeler

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfM4E_SI0XY

  20. Younger Oil says:

    Surly: I don’t believe a team can trade a player they matched an RFA offer sheet for a period of 12 months after matching.

    That is true, I can’t believe I forgot that, thanks for correcting me!

    I don’t see any harm in offering that contract to Jones then, we need a good goalie at that age, and the cost of a 2nd round pick and pissing off a GM is likely worth it,

  21. Oiler94 says:

    Is markstrom at all a viable option?

  22. Lowetide says:

    Oiler94:
    Is markstrom at all a viable option?

    I think Lack might be the better plan but doubt the Canucks and Oilers can do business. I wouldn’t trade a goalie in the division, even though the Oilers goalie next year won’t be able to stop enough pucks to make a real difference.

    You don’t want that guy coming back to bite you, or at least that’s the hockey wisdom.

  23. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: I almost put him there but wanted to highlight Jones as the reasonable option. I do like Neuvirth and frJohn’s insight is impressive.

    I don’t mind Jones, but Neuvirth seems like the more reasonable option… he is UFA, would only cost money.

  24. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: I don’t mind Jones, but Neuvirth seems like the more reasonable option… he is UFA, would only cost money.

    Do you think he’s established enough for a GM who is under pressure? I know the same criticism can be placed on Jones but for me that’s the issue with all of these people.

    I think Pat may have it right, Crawford is established and expensive and chicago is good at making those kinds of deals.

  25. Ca$h-Money! says:

    I think the “Crawford is terrible” narrative is a bit overblown. He’s a good not great goalie, young enough, locked up for a decent term for 6 million. That’s a high price but it’s hardly a killer contract, guys like Lundquist and Rask cost a lot more and Price will probably get 12.

  26. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Do you think he’s established enough for a GM who is under pressure? I know the same criticism can be placed on Jones but for me that’s the issue with all of these people.

    I think Pat may have it right, Crawford is established and expensive and chicago is good at making those kinds of deals.

    Oh, I fully expect Crawford to be an Oiler next year lol… Said it weeks ago to Woodguy. I see the diaspora as being Sharp to FLA, Bickell to CAL or VAN, and Crawford to the Oilers. And Pat’s right on the cost. Won’t be crazy but it will likely mean a 1st round pick going CHI’s way.

    Out of the young up and comers in the A, Connor Hellebuyck is probably my favorite and I wonder what it would take to get him off the Jets.

  27. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Lowetide,

    I think Neuvirth is a whole heck of a lot more established than Jones. He was even a starter in Washington, no? He’s my pick, with either Anderson in the 2/3 spot.

    Jones is basically Scrivens, no?

  28. Ice Sage says:

    Goaltenders are important.

    Their role and training is different.

    A top-flight goaltender coach and coherent training regimen is a must or else we’ll continue to see ‘tendies regressing in Oiler silks (and thriving once traded to other teams).

    Bridge to Broissot

  29. Mr DeBakey says:

    Ca$h-Money!: I think Neuvirth is a whole heck of a lot more established than Jones. He was even a starter in Washington, no?

    Neuwirth is the guy.

  30. spoiler says:

    blackdog,

    When are you going to write a story about the new dog, Dammit?

  31. geowal says:

    Surly: I think it was a groin pull when he got deked out of his shorts on a shootout

    Update:

    Wheeler

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TfM4E_SI0XY

    Ah, thanks. Feel bad for the guy, he might have a hard time finding work next year, courtesy: Oilers

  32. Oiler94 says:

    Lowetide,

    Benning wasn’t afraid to trade their number 2 centre in kesler to Anaheim. Markstrom has been lights out in Utica. In my opinion Mac T will go an inexperienced route again saving money to blow on overpaid out of organization dmen like nikitia again instead of believing in his own prospects like MM..

  33. Woodguy says:

    FRJOHNK’s analysis also showed that Crawford was elite at stopped high percentage shots.

    It was actually a surprise because he found that CHI gave up as many high% chances as the Oilers.

    I’d dig it up, but I’m on my phone in line for a car wash with a big storm cloud looming.

    True story.

  34. spoiler says:

    Ice Sage:
    Goaltenders are important.

    Their role and training is different.

    A top-flight goaltender coach and coherent training regimen is a must or else we’ll continue to see ‘tendies regressing in Oiler silks (and thriving once traded to other teams).

    Bridge to Broissot

    It was interesting to read O’Connor’s agent I mean advisor saying that goaltending coach is an important part of his decision.

    So… not the Oilers.

  35. stush18 says:

    LT why do you hate neuvirth?

    Edit* not sure why but whenever i start with this line, the rest of my comment is deleted. Frustrating as i spent a while writing it out.

  36. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    LT why do you hate neuvirth?

    Cut me off in traffic. I never forget!

  37. stevezie says:

    The good news it this looks like a nice summer to need a goalie. There are a lot of decent options available.

    No perfect ones, but a perfect solution wouldn’t come here anyway.

  38. Ray says:

    Lowetide: Cut me off in traffic. I never forget!

    Probably likes ABBA too!

  39. Lowetide says:

    Ray: Probably likes ABBA too!

    Well, who doesn’t?

  40. HiddenDarts says:

    Woodguy:
    FRJOHNK’s analysis also showed that Crawford was elite at stopped high percentage shots.

    It was actually a surprise because he found that CHI gave up as many high% chances as the Oilers.

    I’d dig it up, but I’m on my phone in line for a car wash with a big storm cloud looming.

    True story.

    I would love to see this. I’m still terrified of him, but it’ll be a nice salve for the inevitable pain of his contract.

    BTW, I get that Carey Price will make 12 and Lundqvist makes close to 9. But those are mistakes GMs that haven’t already made a ton of mistakes talk themselves into believing they can afford to make.

  41. Ray says:

    I’m not convinced that Cam Ward isn’t one of the top options in MacT’s mind. Not saying he “is” a top option.

  42. Lowetide says:

    Ray:
    I’m not convinced that Cam Ward isn’t one of the top options in MacT’s mind. Not saying he “is” a top option.

    Yeah, I think we’re probably in for a famous name but that doesn’t mean a great goalie. MacT went to war with Tommy Salo, Ty Conklin, Dwayne Roloson, Jussi Markkanen, Mike Morrison, that guy I can’t remember who stole Rollie’s job Garon.

  43. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Ray,

    If we’re going there the I continue to suggest Pavelec.

  44. slambanna says:

    Lowetide: I don’t see the Rangers moving him. He’s inexpensive and excellent insurance against losing their aging starter.

    He is a UFA after the 15/16 season at 1.45m though.

  45. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-Money!:
    Ray,

    If we’re going there the I continue to suggest Pavelec.

    Because you’re a Flames fan?

  46. Ray says:

    Cash might be but not I.

    If Ward comes here, I’d hope that Scrivens goes the other way and a second bet is made on a cheaper goalie… like Jones.

  47. G Money says:

    Rob Vollman calculates something called “expected sv%”, which calculates a goalies sv% based on the opponents sh%.

    You can take the difference between actual sv% and expected sv% and use that as an assessment tool. A positive diff indicates a goalie performing better than his numbers.

    I don’t think it’s as sophisticated as a scoring chance based system is, but I think it has utility.

    His data is updated annually, so it doesn’t have this year’s data available as yet, but from last year, this is the list of goalies who played at least 40 games and had a positive sv% diff (sorted alphabetically, not by rank):

    Bernier
    Bishop
    Bobrovsky
    Crawford
    Fleury
    Halak
    Holtby
    Lehtonen
    Lundqvist
    Luongo
    Mason
    Miller
    Price
    Quick
    Rask
    Schneider
    Smith
    Varlamov

    If you get bold about it and want to reduce the game filter to 15 so it includes e.g. Jones, the top 10 goalies by that measure are:

    Talbot
    Jones
    Harding
    Stalock
    Rask
    Varlamov
    Price
    Khudobin
    Bishop
    Bernier

  48. Numenius says:

    There’s a discrepancy about Cory Crawford’s cap hit on the sites:

    NHL Numbers has AAV 6M (for another 5 years)

    War-on-ice has AAV 6.667M (for another 5 years). The added bit is due to signing bonuses.

    Anyone know which is right? I’m assuming it’s war-on-ice.

  49. slambanna says:

    G Money:
    Rob Vollman calculates something called “expected sv%”, which calculates a goalies sv% based on the opponents sh%.

    Forgive my ignorance, but where do you find Vollman’s numbers?

  50. cahill says:

    murphy,

    I think Lehner is a player to target as well. Going into this season he had a career sv% of .918 he is 23 years oldand the cost is probably a 2nd and a mid-range prospect. Lehner is cheap at 2.25 cap hit for years and an RFA. The downside of not obtaining a proven goalie is that the 2016 free agent goalie class is pretty thin.

  51. G Money says:

    Carrying this forward from the last thread.

    If you haven’t already done so, please take the survey linked here:
    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/03/29/who-should-the-oilers-draft/

    Who do you think the Oilers should draft? (this is an opinion survey, not an actionable one, and it’s anonymous, so please don’t cook the books by entering multiple responses from multiple machines!!)

    So far, 55 of 100 max responses entered. Survey closes Tuesday at midnight (if the 100 limit isn’t reached first).

    I’ll post the results when done.

  52. G Money says:

    slambanna: Forgive my ignorance, but where do you find Vollman’s numbers?

    Hi Slam,

    You have to go to this page, where Rob kindly makes all of his masses of data available. (Truly a gentleman and a scholar that guy):

    http://www.hockeyabstract.com/testimonials

    (ignore the weird fact that it says testimonials, it’s actually his stats page).

    About halfway down, you’ll find the goalie statistics spreadsheet, or you can access the direct link here: http://www.hockeyabstract.com/testimonials/nhlgoalies2013-14

    You can repro my results using Excel filters and GP (games played) and DIFF (difference between Sv% and ExpectedSv%) fields.

    EDIT: Oh yeah, also: buy his book, it’s awesome!

  53. slambanna says:

    G Money:

    Thanks, G

    Looking forward to seeing your emerging work over at the new blog.

  54. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    FRJOHNK’s analysis also showed that Crawford was elite at stopped high percentage shots.

    It was actually a surprise because he found that CHI gave up as many high% chances as the Oilers.

    I’d dig it up, but I’m on my phone in line for a car wash with a big storm cloud looming.

    True story.

    Something like this: (sorry I don’t have Crawfords numbers, but he has done well)

    Continuing on with the theme of the “team defence” stat I did last week, I crunched some numbers for some goalie targets. Here we go:

    …………………Team……..Arrow …….Perimeter
    ……………….Defence…..Save%…….Save%
    Antti.Raanta….20th……..0.904…….. 0.969
    Cam.Talbot….. 6th………0.888……..0.965
    Jonathan.Bern29th……..0.878……..0.964
    Michal.Neuvirt 30th……..0.873……..0.97
    Antti.Niemi……19th……..0.87……….0.971
    LEAGUE AVG ……………0.87………0.966
    Martin.Jones…2nd……..0.868……..0.966
    Ben.Scrivens..22nd…….0.86……….0.948
    Jhonas.Enroth.30th…….0.854……..0.958
    Viktor.Fast…..22nd……..0.843……..0.946
    Above stats are ranked best at the top for arrow shot save %

    * Arrow is the area which is basically the slot and areas right near the slot, the high and medium danger areas*

    * Perimeter is just exactly that, shots from the perimeter*

    ……………….Games…Quality…Quality
    ……………….Started….Starts….Start %
    Antti.Raanta……14…..8…..67%
    Michal.Neuv……31…..17…55%
    Antti.Niemi……..54…..29….54%
    Martin.Jones…..10……5….50%
    Jonathan.Bern..49…..24…49%
    Cam.Talbot…….29…..13…48%
    Viktor.Fasth……24…..10…42%
    Ben.Scrivens….45…..18…40%
    Jhonas.Enroth.39…….15….39%

    above stats are ranked with best quality start % at the top.

    Quality starts are starts when the goalie gets a save% in a game at or above league average
    Quality start % > 60% is good
    Quality start % =53% league average
    Quality start % < 50% is bad

    Bad Bad
    Starts Start %
    Cam.Talbot…..2…….7%
    Antti.Raanta….1…….7%
    Michal.Neuvir..4……13%
    Antti.Niemi……9…….17%
    Jhonas.Enroth 7……18%
    Martin.Jones 2…….20%
    Ben.Scrivens 9……20%
    Jonathan.Bern 10….20%
    Viktor.Fasth…..9……38%

    above stats ranked with best number at the top.

    Bad Start are starts when the goalie gets a save % in game less than 85%

    ……….GS..career…Save % career…Age
    Antti.Niemi….326……0.916……31
    Jonathan.Bern 152…0.916……26
    Michal.Neuvirt 149…0.912……26
    Jhonas.Enroth 110..0.908…….26
    Ben.Scrivens…108..0.909……28
    Viktor.Fasth……59….0.904……32
    Cam.Talbot……46…..0.932…..27
    Antti.Raanta…..34….0.912……25
    Martin.Jones….28….0.925…..25

    above stats ranked by most games started at the top.

    My thoughts on these goalies

    Martin Jones plays on one of the best defensive teams in the NHL, has put up average numbers this year and his sample size is extremely small ( 28 games). A huge gamble to be a number 1 and would cost an asset (s) as he is a RFA.

    Antti Raanta has put up better numbers than Jones on a team that is not as good defensively. Small sample size. Would cost an asset. Is he a backup or could he evolve into a starter?

    Cam Talbot is in the Raanta group, great numbers but small sample size, is he a starter or a backup? Has had a really good team defence in front of him. Would cost an asset.

    Jhonas Enroth has played the majority of this year in front of the leagues worst team. All of his numbers are below or well below average. A UFA. Not at the top of the list of my targets.

    Jonathan Bernier has put up decent numbers in front of the 2nd worst team defence. He does lead the league with 10 bad starts which is 20% of the time. I believe he is a decent number 1, but of all the goalies on this list he would cost the most in assets and is not necessarily the best goalie here.

    Antti Niemi has played in front of an average team defence and put up average to just above average numbers across the board. A number 1 goalie that is an UFA but is 31. A hard target for the oilers that I wouldnt mind on a shorter term.

    Micheal Neuvirth has played the majority of the season in front of the leagues worst team. Has put up above average numbers in "arrow save %, perimeter save %, and quality start %". Also has only had 4 bad starts, 17% of the time (compare that with the oiler goalies of 18 or 26% of the time) He is a number 1 goalie, at a good age (26) and a UFA. This is my choice out of this list.

  55. delooper says:

    The only difference between Dubnyk now and Dubnyk a couple years ago is he’s had some time in front of a D core that isn’t completely lost. Dubnyk is no better goalie now than when he left.

    Any goalie in front of the Edmonton Oilers (currently configured) is not going to look good. Hunting for a “good” goalie is pointless with the D in tatters. Once the Oilers had credible defense, they can start thinking about tweaking their goaltenders. But they have no realistic criterion for success in their current configuration.

  56. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    I still think it will be Quick.

  57. Gordies Elbow says:

    I wouldn’t be shocked if MacT is looking at killing a couple of birds with one stone.

    Current projection for the cap is $73m with the inflator, and $69.5m without. Chicago currently has 16 players under contract for next year, currently at $66.6m. They need to sign Kruger, Saad, Rundblad, Nordstrom, and Darling to RFA extensions, and are losing Oduya, Rozsival, Richards, Vermette, Carcillo, Timonen, and Desjardins as UFA’s. They need to clear cap space, and need good young players and prospects in return. Seems like a good fit for Edmonton to trade with.

    We know that Edmonton liked Raanta, but he chose to sign with Chicago. Seabrook has a year left on his contract at $5.8m.

    Edmonton gives up a good young player (Marincin) cheap prospect (e.g. Greg Chase) and a 2016 mid-round pick for the rights to Raanta and 1 year of Seabrook. With Seabrook on the books, resigning Derek Roy at $1.5m, and Raanta, Edmonton’s still at $65m.

    Pouliot-Hopkins-Eberle
    Draisaitl-Roy-Yakupov
    Hall-Lander-Purcell
    Hendricks-Gordon-Klinkhammer

    Nikitin(Nurse)-Seabrook
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Ference-Fayne
    Nikitin(Nurse)

    Scrivens
    Raanta

    Not a home run, to say the least, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see it play out like this.

  58. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    Thank you Father.

  59. Numenius says:

    G Money: Rob Vollman calculates something called “expected sv%”, which calculates a goalies sv% based on the opponents sh%.

    His data is updated annually, so it doesn’t have this year’s data available as yet, but from last year, this is the list of goalies who played at least 40 games and had a positive sv% diff (sorted alphabetically, not by rank):

    If you get bold about it and want to reduce the game filter to 15 so it includes e.g. Jones, the top 10 goalies by that measure are:

    Talbot
    Jones
    Harding
    Stalock…

    War-on-ice has an “adjusted sv%”, which is the weighted-average of SvPctHigh, SvPctMed, and SvPctLow, and these are calculated according to the league-wide sh% from high, medium, and low sh% areas. Not sure if that’s the same as Vollman, but it might be.

    http://war-on-ice.com/goalietable.html

    At 5×5 this season, Martin Jones is pretty much even: 14gms sv% 92.2 Adsv% 92.74

    Both are a little lower than Quick: 66 gms sv% 92.66 Adsv% 93.24

    By this metric, he’s 36th in the NHL this season, having played 14 games. Not close to last season’s nice showing unfortunately, where he was 1st in the NHL at 94.76% 5×5.

    Another thing to note is that his SAs are lower than Quick’s this year, which suggests he plays easier teams. Last year his SAs were higher though. Interesting.

  60. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I still think it will be Quick.

    Quick, with Fraser!

  61. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    Padre,

    You did a post where you had the SV% above/below expecation.

    That’s the one I was thinking of and I can’t find it.

    You had mentioned in the post you were surprised at the number of high percentage shots that CHI gave up because it was almost identical to the Oilers.

    Remember where you put that bad boy?

  62. wheatnoil says:

    Work is obscenely busy. So every evening I put my kid to bed, fire up the laptop and work away. In order to keep sane I find little distractors along the way. This blog is one. Number two appears to be keeping track of the Oiler CHL prospects in their playoffs.

    Today, Platzer got a goal and an assist in a losing effort as Owen Sound loses in OT 5-4. Series tied at 1.

  63. Lowetide says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    I wouldn’t be shocked if MacT is looking at killing a couple of birds with one stone.

    Current projection for the cap is $73m with the inflator, and $69.5m without.Chicago currently has 16 players under contract for next year, currently at $66.6m. They need to sign Kruger, Saad, Rundblad, Nordstrom, and Darling to RFA extensions, and are losing Oduya, Rozsival, Richards, Vermette, Carcillo, Timonen, and Desjardins as UFA’s. They need to clear cap space, and need good young players and prospects in return. Seems like a good fit for Edmonton to trade with.

    We know that Edmonton liked Raanta, but he chose to sign with Chicago. Seabrook has a year left on his contract at $5.8m.

    Edmonton gives up a good young player (Marincin) cheap prospect (e.g. Greg Chase) and a 2016 mid-round pick for the rights to Raanta and 1 year of Seabrook. With Seabrook on the books, resigning Derek Roy at $1.5m, and Raanta, Edmonton’s still at $65m.

    Pouliot-Hopkins-Eberle
    Draisaitl-Roy-Yakupov
    Hall-Lander-Purcell
    Hendricks-Gordon-Klinkhammer

    Nikitin(Nurse)-Seabrook
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Ference-Fayne
    Nikitin(Nurse)

    Scrivens
    Raanta

    Not a home run, to say the least, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see it play out like this.

    I do like Seabrook, but what has to come with him. Sharp? The goalie? And going the other way? Inexpensive and good.

  64. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy:
    frjohnk,

    Padre,

    You did a post where you had the SV% above/below expecation.

    That’s the one I was thinking of and I can’t find it.

    You had mentioned in the post you were surprised at the number of high percentage shots that CHI gave up because it was almost identical to the Oilers.

    Remember where you put that bad boy?

    On my phone now heading out for some beer and hockey but I think the one you are talking about is the one LT used in one of his posts about 2 weeks ago on a weekend I think.

  65. Numenius says:

    Related to last thread:

    “Provorov has really come on strong,” Central’s Western Hockey League scout Peter Sullivan said. “I think he’s given Hanifin and Werenski a run. I think everybody agreed at the meetings that he’s more NHL-ready than most of the players in the draft right now. That’s not to say that he’ll be better than Hanifin 10 years from now, but I’d say he’s the D-man that’s almost ready right now.”

    03.29.2015
    http://www.nhl.com/ice/blogpost.htm?id=38405&navid=nhl:topheads

  66. Woodguy says:

    Shit, here it is.

    LT turned it into a post.

    https://lowetide.ca/2015/03/15/five-things-that-could-improve-the-oilers-next-season/

    Key part for the Crawford discussion:

    Montreal and Chicago have comparable team defence ranked 18th and 20st respectively ( basically league average) and comparable GAA ranked 1st and 2nd respectively, everybody believes Carey price is the best ( which is true) but rarely do we see much love for Chicagos goalies, but Chicagos goalies are doing a helluva job. This exercise would suggest that Chicago’s Dmen are highly overated from a defensive stand point while their goaltenders are under rated.

    Data:

    So below you will find Expected GAA ( or team defence), Actual GAA and the difference. The following stats are placed with the best expected GAA at the top ( or best team defence)

    Expect GAA Actual GAA Difference

    MIN 2.311 2.424 -0.114
    L.A 2.407 2.369 0.037
    NSH 2.414 2.221 0.193
    DET 2.432 2.369 0.063
    CAR 2.435 2.531 -0.096
    NYR 2.461 2.281 0.180
    STL 2.462 2.415 0.047
    WSH2.479 2.470 0.009
    FLA 2.496 2.591 -0.095
    ANA 2.508 2.574 -0.066
    T.B 2.524 2.493 0.032
    PHI 2.533 2.687 -0.154
    WPG2.563 2.358 0.205
    CGY 2.608 2.439 0.168
    PIT 2.614 2.303 0.311
    NYI 2.615 2.676 -0.061
    BOS 2.616 2.415 0.200
    MTL 2.617 2.076 0.541
    S.J 2.625 2.582 0.043
    CHI 2.626 2.182 0.444
    VAN 2.647 2.515 0.132
    EDM2.695 3.179 -0.484
    N.J 2.729 2.318 0.411
    OTT 2.738 2.547 0.191
    DAL 2.743 3.152 -0.409
    ARI 2.838 3.134 -0.296
    CBJ 2.841 2.969 -0.128
    COL 2.979 2.591 0.388
    TOR 2.982 2.940 0.042
    BUF 3.147 3.227 -0.080

    Now if we look at the “difference” and rank it from best to worst, we get this.

    MTL 0.541
    CHI 0.444
    N.J 0.411
    COL 0.388
    PIT 0.311
    WPG0.205
    BOS 0.200
    NSH 0.193
    OTT 0.191
    NYR 0.180
    CGY 0.168
    VAN 0.132
    DET 0.063
    STL 0.047
    S.J 0.043
    TOR 0.042
    L.A 0.037
    T.B 0.032
    WSH0.009
    NYI -0.061
    ANA -0.066
    BUF -0.080
    FLA -0.095
    CAR -0.096
    MIN -0.114
    CBJ -0.128
    PHI -0.154
    ARI -0.296
    DAL -0.409
    EDM-0.484

    Its not just Crawford.

    Raanta had a .934 (!) when he got sent down in favour of Darling.

    I had heard this was to “test drive Darling” to see if he was up to splitting the net next year with Raanta.

    If he was CHI was going to shop Crawford this summer.

    Raanta put up a .934 this year in 14 games.

    Darling has put up a .938 11 games.

    Crawford has put up a .923 in 53 games.

    That’s a nice problem to have.

  67. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    I wouldn’t be shocked if MacT is looking at killing a couple of birds with one stone.

    Current projection for the cap is $73m with the inflator, and $69.5m without.Chicago currently has 16 players under contract for next year, currently at $66.6m. They need to sign Kruger, Saad, Rundblad, Nordstrom, and Darling to RFA extensions, and are losing Oduya, Rozsival, Richards, Vermette, Carcillo, Timonen, and Desjardins as UFA’s. They need to clear cap space, and need good young players and prospects in return. Seems like a good fit for Edmonton to trade with.

    We know that Edmonton liked Raanta, but he chose to sign with Chicago. Seabrook has a year left on his contract at $5.8m.

    Edmonton gives up a good young player (Marincin) cheap prospect (e.g. Greg Chase) and a 2016 mid-round pick for the rights to Raanta and 1 year of Seabrook. With Seabrook on the books, resigning Derek Roy at $1.5m, and Raanta, Edmonton’s still at $65m.

    Pouliot-Hopkins-Eberle
    Draisaitl-Roy-Yakupov
    Hall-Lander-Purcell
    Hendricks-Gordon-Klinkhammer

    Nikitin(Nurse)-Seabrook
    Klefbom-Schultz
    Ference-Fayne
    Nikitin(Nurse)

    Scrivens
    Raanta

    Not a home run, to say the least, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see it play out like this.

    The latest cap projection from Bettman was $71.5 million WITH the inflator.

    It could be much lower.

    http://www.torontosun.com/2015/03/17/nhl-general-managers-push-for-3-on-3-overtime

    That makes things even worse for Chicago but you can bet PatricK Sharp can be added to your list of dearly departed.

    Florida which has more than $10M coming off their cap in the offseason, has a long history of transactions with Chicago and also have a ton of young C’s and D’s which Chicago will dearly need.

    Don’t be surprised if both Seabrook and Sharp end up in Florida.

  68. Gordies Elbow says:

    Lowetide: I do like Seabrook, but what has to come with him. Sharp? The goalie? And going the other way? Inexpensive and good.

    I’m not sure that 1 year of Seabrook has enough of a draw for a team to take on Sharp’s contract.

    I could see a Marincin for Seabrook trade – makes sense for both teams. Prospects and picks for Raanta, who’s 3rd on the Chicago depth chart, also makes sense.

    Crawford, Sharp? Sorry, not good fits, unless there’s more of a sweetener from the Chicago side, which given their cap challenges, is unlikely.

  69. Lowetide says:

    Gordies Elbow: I’m not sure that 1 year of Seabrook has enough of a draw for a team to take on Sharp’s contract.

    I could see a Marincin for Seabrook trade – makes sense for both teams. Prospects and picks for Raanta, who’s 3rd on the Chicago depth chart, also makes sense.

    Crawford, Sharp? Sorry, not good fits, unless there’s more of a sweetener from the Chicago side, which given their cap challenges, is unlikely.

    The team we may be up against is New Jersey, and Lou will blood transfusion Sharp into the 2050’s.

  70. VanOil says:

    delooper:
    The only difference between Dubnyk now and Dubnyk a couple years ago is he’s had some time in front of a D core that isn’t completely lost.Dubnyk is no better goalie now than when he left.

    Any goalie in front of the Edmonton Oilers (currently configured) is not going to look good.Hunting for a “good” goalie is pointless with the D in tatters. Once the Oilers had credible defense, they can start thinking about tweaking their goaltenders.But they have no realistic criterion for success in their current configuration.

    Agreed.

    With all this talk of ABBA I have been inspired to see a fix for the defense for the first time post Petry. First fire MacT who has shown no ability to evaluate defenders then;

    Trade his boy Justin Schultz + for Adam Larsson

    The NHL defense next year becomes;

    Klefbom – Larsson dreamy Swedes like a young ABBA
    Marnicin – Fayne in the dessert on a horse with no name
    Ference – Nikitin double agents of doom

    Draft Hanifin and convince him to do some California dreaming with a big bad Nurse next winter. His college boy softness might go unnoticed with Nurse as a partner. The future of the Oilers defense would be so bright I would have to wear shades.

    What would the (+) have to be to make this trade happen? Montreal’s 2nd would make it a no brainer, the Oilers 2nd would give me pause but I would still do it, Pits 1st would require NJ 2nd coming back.

  71. Gordies Elbow says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Could be, but I can’t see Florida moving a young defender to take on Seabrook, which would be needed by Chicago. Give up a player like Michael Matheson, to fill a slot behind Aaron Ekblad? I can’t see Tallon doing that.

    For Seabrook, Edmonton looks like a better trade partner.

  72. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Gordies Elbow:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    Could be, but I can’t see Florida moving a young defender to take on Seabrook, which would be needed by Chicago? Give up a player like Michael Matheson, to fill a slot behind Aaron Ekblad? I can’t see Tallon doing that.

    For Seabrook, Edmonton looks like a better trade partner.

    Florida has Ekblad, Kulikov, Gudbranson, Petrovic (he’s now in the NHL lineup) Dylan Olsen, Ian McCoshen, and Matheson as D all under 25.

    You can’t play them all.

    Brian Campbell has only one season left on his contract so Seabrook would be a fabulous replacement at a lower cap hit.

    Given Seabrook’s long history with Dale Tallon, I can see him being very happy signing a contract extension with the Panthers…not so much the Oilers.

    Kind of a perfect fit in Florida, actually.

  73. Lowetide says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Florida has Ekblad, Kulikov, Gudbranson, Petrovic (he’s now in the NHL lineup) Dylan Olsen, Ian McCoshen, and Matheson as D all under 25.

    You can’t play them all.

    Brian Campbell has only one season left on his contract so Seabrook would be a fabulous replacement at a lower cap hit.

    Given Seabrook’s long history with Dale Tallon, I can see him being very happy signing a contract extension with the Panthers…not so much the Oilers.

    Kind of a perfect fit in Florida, actually.

    That’s a great point. Seabrook would be a good add to that defense, and Luongo should have some good years. I wonder if they’ll throw rats on the ice in June one of these years?

  74. slambanna says:

    Woodguy and Father JohnK:

    PHI -0.154

    Every teams number here made perfect sense until I got to Philly.
    “There is no way Philly’s goaltending is worse than their D” I thought “Mason is sporting a .927 this season”

    So I looked in to it:

    Mason 47 games .927

    Emery 29 games .892
    Zepp 10 games .888

    The Philly goaltending curse does indeed continue.

    The Moral of the story is that I think we can take these numbers to bank.

    By that, I mean Mud Crutch can take these to MacT’s desk, with a big “be careful what you do with this information”.

  75. 719 says:

    Once the Blackhawks trade Sharp and Crawford they sit at just over 52 million, with 12 spots to fill. That leaves them almost 20 million to sign 12 players. They will sign their RFAs cheap, pick up some veterans (boyes) cheap and pick up some useful cheap young players when they trade Sharp and Crawford.

    I do not see Seabrook being moved.

  76. VOR says:

    I believe it is possible we are blaming far too much on the Oilers D and goaltending.

    The defence includes the twelve guys you are playing at forward, doesn’t it? I can’t help thinking if the Oilers third line was the modern equivalent of Marchant-Grier-Buchberger whether some of the Oilers defencemen wouldn’t look light years better. The difference between Gordon-Hendricks-Klinkhammer and Marchant-Grier-Buchberger is that while he may have missed those breakaways Marchant could wheel and once he had the puck other teams started backing up because otherwise he was gone. Grier was a monster in his own end and could occasionally generate serious offence. He’d get the puck in his own corner and just force his way up the boards and out. Buchberger wasn’t as good but even he could break out of his own end and move the puck.

    Getting the puck out of your own end as a defenceman is largely a function of time and space which your forwards purchase for you by coming back on the backcheck and getting in the way and winning battles in the corners. Deep support is critical (defencemen need somebody to pass to and often the Oilers D don’t have that). It is not a fluke that the same D look better when RNH is on the ice. He is great at being deep to take the short pass and move the puck out his own end.

    It would also help if the Oilers forwards could occasionally break a play up at center ice and go on transition instantly. I keep praying for the next Tikkanen. That uncanny anticipation as he looped in center ice and then vacuumed up every attempt by the other team to head man the puck was astonishingly effective defence. Oh and maybe we should tell those forwards to gain the zone and hang on to possession for was long as possible. If all else fails, cycle baby, cycle.

    My point is this: it isn’t all down to the defencemen! Hockey is a team sport and everybody needs to do their part.

  77. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide: That’s a great point. Seabrook would be a good add to that defense, and Luongo should have some good years. I wonder if they’ll throw rats on the ice in June one of these years?

    Man, they’re getting close already now that Tallon actually has a budget to spend.

    They kicked the crap out of Ottawa today…outshot them 37-27.

    Once Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, Gudbranson (he’s only 23), Kulikov and Trocheck are old enough to shave, they could be very scary.

    Adding Seabrook and Sharp for some additional veteran presence to go along with Jagr might see them take another big leap next season.

    Just a really well built team now that they have Luongo, two young top pairing D and an embarrassment of riches at centre.

  78. dangilitis says:

    LT,

    I don’t know how much you chat with Henderson, but really like his work. Found his recent piece on J Schultz interesting (the “stick with your wife” fortune cookie piece). I would have to disagree, however, with the notion that we need to keep Justin simply because we have him, or because of the courting process that it took to get him, etc.

    1) Andrew Miller, Arcobello, Schultz, etc. is evidence enough of the team providing quick opportunities to college draft picks. Even if we cut bait with Schultz, there is no reason for NCAA players to doubt that the Oilers will give them the best chance to play in the NHL and get noticed if they play hard in the minors.

    2) Schultz is a cap space consumer. At this point, cap space is all the team is capable of creating as an asset. Having 4 million dollars of cap space that can be used when a better D man is available (and it will, you won’t have to look too hard to find a better solution than Schultz) is a far greater asset than having Schultz on this team in the now.

    As an aside, I also resent any notion that Ference and Nikitin are “stop gap solutions” – Stop gaps are makeshift substitutes for something that is lacking. This would imply that the team lacks 2 NHL defencemen, and that Ference and Nikitin actually have substituted as NHL defencemen. They are no more NHL caliber defencemen at this point than Davidson, Nurse, and Hanifin, or any NHL D you pluck off the UFA pool after the 3rd week when things are starting to look desperate for said player. However, add in Justin, and they are collectively consuming 12 million dollars in cap space, and that’s about to go up when Justin gets a small bump in salary (because Norris). If one is going to argue that the thing the Oilers are lacking is “veteran presence,” this has not been the case, at least from how they present themselves to the media (calls out rookies and young players then shits the bed in the games, shows up camp out of shape, and Jultzes). None of the 3 have actually helped the development of Klef and Marincin, other than to give them more experience in covering for the defensive lapses of their partners.

    Thus, 12 million dollars is being spent on players who are not actually serving as stop-gap solutions. By comparison, that’s 2/3 of a top NHL line on a Stanley Cup winning team, being spent on 3 defencemen who are not doing their jobs at even an NHL replacement level. So why is keeping him, or Ference and Nikitin for that matter, the right choice? Great D men are hard to find in the UFA pool, but ones who play as well as Ference/Nikitin/Schultz are a dime a dozen and will cost you far less, even as UFAs. Worst case scenario, if the the Oilers do not find one, they have a similarly weak defence, but have 12 million dollars freed to use to their advantage as in a trade. Ironically, this trading advantage would be the ability to take on a bad contract, but on their own terms, and with the goal of getting a more useful player in addition.

    In my opinion, getting Seabrook is secondary to the bigger task that MacT has – finding homes, economic safe havens if you will, for Ference, Schultz, and Nikitin. 12 million dollars freed to spend on actual NHL players (D, G, C, or all of above) is way more valuable to the Oilers short term future, and a solution like Seabrook will follow. And if the Leafs can trade away Clarkson, without retaining salary, that just goes to show that anything is possible if the GM is creative and determined to get it done.

    Thoughts?

  79. Lowetide says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Man, they’re getting close already now that Tallon actually has a budget to spend.

    They kicked the crap out of Ottawa today…outshot them37-27.

    Once Barkov, Bjugstad, Ekblad, Gudbranson (he’s only 23),Kulikov and Trocheck are old enough to shave, they could be very scary.

    Adding Seabrook and Sharp for some additional veteran presence to go along with Jagr might see them take another big leap next season.

    Just a really well built team now that they have Luongo, two young top pairing D and an embarrassment of riches at centre.

    Ha! Well, center will be better when Barkov is a year or two older but Huberdeau is settling in nicely on LW and Bjugstad looks like a nice center. Bolland is a bit of a worry and I don’t know what happened to Bergenheim there but overall looks good. Luongo is really going to help the kids.

  80. Gerta Rauss says:

    Taylor Fedun played his first game for San Jose tonight, 17 minutes of icetime

    Good for him.

    With the absence of any RHD in the system I might have had a little more time for him

  81. Dashingsilverfox says:

    719:
    Once the Blackhawks trade Sharp and Crawford they sit at just over 52 million, with 12 spots to fill. That leaves them almost 20 million to sign 12 players.They will sign their RFAs cheap, pick up some veterans (boyes) cheap and pick up some useful cheap young players when they trade Sharp and Crawford.

    I do not see Seabrook being moved.

    The problem with moving Crawford is that there are very few teams who need a #1G, especially at that cap hit.

    Here is my list of teams that would NOT be interested:

    Anaheim

    Montreal

    Nashville

    NY Rangers

    NY Islanders

    Tampa Bay

    Pittsburgh

    Detroit

    Washington

    Vancouver

    Minnesota

    Winnipeg

    Calgary

    Boston

    Los Angeles

    Ottawa

    Florida

    Dallas

    San Jose

    Colorado

    Columbus

    New Jersey

    Toronto

    Carolina

    Arizona

    Buffalo

    That leaves only a few teams who MIGHT want to acquire him IF they had the cap space.

    Now, Philadelphia has been known to make crazy goaltending moves but they have cap problems of their own.

    Not much of a market.

  82. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide: Ha! Well, center will be better when Barkov is a year or two older but Huberdeau is settling in nicely on LW and Bjugstad looks like a nice center. Bolland is a bit of a worry and I don’t know what happened to Bergenheim there but overall looks good. Luongo is really going to help the kids.

    Jagr too…they’re already raving about the help he’s giving them.

  83. VOR says:

    Hey Dashing Silver Fox,

    You know that you just made the case for the Oilers being able to get Crawford cheap (in terms of assets)?

  84. Dashingsilverfox says:

    VOR:
    Hey Dashing Silver Fox,

    You know that you just made the case for the Oilers being able to get Crawford cheap (in terms of assets)?

    Yep…and I think they might do it.

    Now, the question is…is it a good idea?

  85. Lowetide says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    Not much of a market.

    And yet the Oilers are going to spend a bunch on a goalie. It’s the Khabibulin summer all over again.

  86. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide: And yet the Oilers are going to spend a bunch on a goalie. It’s the Khabibulin summer all over again.

    Agree completely.

    And I can’t imagine someone like Crawford would be thrilled to be sent packing to a team with only a couple of NHL defensemen.

    They would be far better off spending the budget elsewhere if they could just find an average goaltender.

  87. LadiesloveSmid says:

    G Money:
    Rob Vollman calculates something called “expected sv%”, which calculates a goalies sv% based on the opponents sh%.

    You can take the difference between actual sv% and expected sv% and use that as an assessment tool.A positive diff indicates a goalie performing better than his numbers.

    I don’t think it’s as sophisticated as a scoring chance based system is, but I think it has utility.

    His data is updated annually, so it doesn’t have this year’s data available as yet, but from last year, this is the list of goalies who played at least 40 games and had a positive sv% diff (sorted alphabetically, not by rank):

    Bernier
    Bishop
    Bobrovsky
    Crawford
    Fleury
    Halak
    Holtby
    Lehtonen
    Lundqvist
    Luongo
    Mason
    Miller
    Price
    Quick
    Rask
    Schneider
    Smith
    Varlamov

    If you get bold about it and want to reduce the game filter to 15 so it includes e.g. Jones, the top 10 goalies by that measure are:

    Talbot
    Jones
    Harding
    Stalock
    Rask
    Varlamov
    Price
    Khudobin
    Bishop
    Bernier

    what’s Harding’s story right now? 2 games played all year? wasn’t he cleared for play at the beginning of the year?

    worth a shot. maybe even over scrivens methinks

  88. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Lowetide: I wonder if they’ll throw rats on the ice in June one of these years?

    Music to my ears LT.
    Music to my ears!!

  89. Dashingsilverfox says:

    LadiesloveSmid: what’s Harding’s story right now? 2 games played all year? wasn’t he cleared for play at the beginning of the year?

    worth a shot. maybe even over scrivens methinks

    He injured his foot while fighting with a team mate in the dressing room and then had a relapse in his medical treatment for MS.

    He’s likely done.

    Here’s the latest:

    http://www.rotoworld.com/recent/nhl/1897/josh-harding

  90. John Chambers says:

    I would be overjoyed in the Oilers landed Crawford. It will force them to go econo at 2C (Lander , Roy, Drai), nor could they add a game-changing D, but after the ’15-16 season guess who comes off the books:
    Nikitin, Purcell, and Scrivens (and Ference if they wisely buy him out).

    They’ll have tons of cap space to manoever the Defense while also adding Nurse into the fold.

    With Crawford your goaltending is solved until at least 2020.

  91. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Speaking of Jagr…here’s what he said after scoring 2 goals and being named 1st star in the Panthers win over the Senators:

    “The last time I did it was 1994 and surprise, 20 years later it’s still working. I don’t do it very much, though. I don’t think I had it. I’m kind of surprised. It was probably because I went to church before the game.”

    — Panthers veteran forward Jaromir Jagr on the move that produced his second goal in a 4-2 victory against the Senators on Sunday

    Jagr has 12 points in 14 games with the Panthers.

  92. slambanna says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Agree completely.

    And I can’t imagine someone like Crawford would be thrilled to be sent packing to a team with only a couple of NHL defensemen.

    They would be far better off spending the budget elsewhere if they could just find an average goaltender.

    If the Oilers were the only team in the market for Crawford, they could demand that he bring his buddy Hjalmarsson with him. Unfortunately Stan would probably want at least Marincin back in this scenario.

    That would help to offset the Crawford caphit and term. If MacT is going to demand a large sample size goalie, then I can imagine much worse scenarios. Not Ideal but Crawford would be 34 at the end of his contract.

  93. Hammers says:

    Lowetide: I don’t see the Rangers moving him. He’s inexpensive and excellent insurance against losing their aging starter.

    Don’t they have another youngster on the rise as well as Talbot and the Rangers are going to be in cap trouble so maybe the starter could be had for Pitts pick and our 1st in 2016 . Sather is smooth and never really had a heart plus he has a couple of RFA’s to sign .

  94. Dashingsilverfox says:

    slambanna: If the Oilers were the only team in the market for Crawford, they could demand that he bring his buddy Hjalmarsson with him.Unfortunately Stan would probably want at least Marincin back in this scenario.

    That would help to offset the Crawford caphit and term.If MacT is going to demand a large sample size goalie, then I can imagine much worse scenarios.Not Ideal but Crawford would be 34 at the end of his contract.

    Complicating matters to a very large degree is the fact that Crawford has a full no moment clause.

  95. slambanna says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Complicating matters to a very large degree is the fact that Crawford has a full no moment clause.

    Ahhh, I see.

    Time to dig out the old “Come to Edmonton” DVD’s then.

    This scenario was already veering well in the fac fiction category anyway…

  96. Lowetide says:

    slambanna: Ahhh, I see.

    Time to dig out the old “Come to Edmonton” DVD’s then.

    This scenario was already veering well in the fac fiction category anyway…

    “The Alberta Advantage!”

  97. rickithebear says:

    G Money: Rob Vollman calculates something called “expected sv%”, which calculates a goalies sv% based on the opponents sh%.
    You can take the difference between actual sv% and expected sv% and use that as an assessment tool. A positive diff indicates a goalie performing better than his numbers.

    welcome to the club Rob.
    that was so 5 years ago.
    when you are done you will find that what dictates that is being good at targeting open hole shots.

    Remember I keep telling you it take 3-5 years for you guys to catch up.

    This was one of my first points about the bull shit of PDO.

  98. Hammers says:

    If we get a high priced goalie like Lundquist or Crawford would the respective G.M’s want picks or cheap players . The other problem is as has been stated many times how much good does it do without the “D” we require . Personally if we have $10 -$12 mill I would prefer the 2 “D” we need stay with Scrivens + another cheap goalie . Next year we save $4.5 X2 for Nikitin and Purcell say Roy for $1.5 ,Gordons money and we get the right goalie then ! Just saying an extra $14 mill + for 2016 . Is that worth considering ?

  99. admiralmark says:

    Lowetide: And yet the Oilers are going to spend a bunch on a goalie. It’s the Khabibulin summer all over again.

    I wonder if this all hinges a great deal on wether or not they win the O’Connor sweepstakes? Certainly not NHL proven yet but maybe they go with a secondary bet like Jones with O’Connor and Brossoit waiting in the wings? I know it seems crazy to take a chance on burning another year due to poor goaltending. But they’ve seemed fairly comfortable doing it so far.

  100. rickithebear says:

    As of today! no more advancing ideas.

    I present ideas.
    people claim they cannot understand.
    but bring up the point after someone else has presented it.

    Any neew ideas with supported data.

    I will post getting closer!
    to let you know you were second to think of it.
    and
    probably 3-5 years behind!

  101. Dashingsilverfox says:

    It’s the Singer…Not the Song.

  102. slambanna says:

    dangilitis:

    In my opinion, getting Seabrook is secondary to the bigger task that MacT has – finding homes, economic safe havens if you will, for Ference, Schultz, and Nikitin. 12 million dollars freed to spend on actual NHL players (D, G, C, or all of above) is way more valuable to the Oilers short term future, and a solution like Seabrook will follow. And if the Leafs can trade away Clarkson, without retaining salary, that just goes to show that anything is possible if the GM is creative and determined to get it done.

    Thoughts?

    Pretty much agree with everything you said here.

    The thing is Clarkson is probably still performing at an average NHL player level and probably brought at least 2 million worth of his intangibles to Ohio with him. Though he will never perform up to his contract he can still bounce back. Still a small miracle for Nonis.

    Ference is terrible and old. We’ll have to hope Dallas Eakins suckers another NHL GM in to a job, and then still retain salary to move him. Just buy him out now… Or use him as an excuse to develop Nurse in the AHL i guess.

    Nikitin… has shown very small signs of improvement starting just before his second injury this year. If you could show me a player who skates as terribly as Nikitin and makes over 2 million (Engelland, Deryk does not count) then maybe there would be hope that he could be moved while retaining maximum salary. Watching him for one more year will be painful for everyone, most of all MacT. It is just one more year though and again he will be a place holder to give Nurse AHL time.

    The Dream: Some GM wants Austin Matthews bad! and has to get to the cap floor. MacT sells him the rebuilding Package of Ference and Nikitin.

    Justin Shultz: the correct move IMO is to take him to arbitration. He gets a pay cut and a wake up call. Gives Nelson one season to exorcise the jultzing out of him.

  103. G Money says:

    rickithebear: welcome to the club Rob.
    that was so 5 years ago.
    when you are done you will find that what dictates that is being good at targeting open hole shots.

    Remember I keep telling you it take 3-5 years for you guys to catch up.

    This was one of my first points about the bull shit of PDO.

    LOL. One small problem, Ricki.

    While you poopoo the importance of spelling and grammar, the fact is you could claim ANY idea as being yours because nobody really understands what you’re saying.

    You list piles of numbers with no context, no explanation, and draw seemingly unrelated conclusions from them.

    You can claim anything you want if you do that.

    Rob, on the other hand, has been doing this for years, explains his methodology carefully, and publishes all of his data.

    I can’t speak for others, but when you do the same – when both your analysis and exposition come to being at least in the same ballpark of rigour as those guys present – I’ll accord you the credit you seem to crave. Maybe get your assistants to help.

    Until then, your posts (while entertaining) don’t get much more than a cursory read.

    The relevance of your work is what others understand of it, not what you claim of it.

  104. malinpaul says:

    Scrivens barely held a starting position prior to coming to Edmonton. LA clearly chose Jones over Scrivens (so a team not even making the playoffs has a backup better than our starter).

    MacT needs to bring in a goalie that has been a real NHL starter. That and add a couple real NHL defencemen, and make sure we keep Roy for C depth.

    As it stands the idea that most of the team is coming back unchanged, when we have been so clearly outmatched by teams like Win, LA, Ana etc. doesn’t bode well for next year.

    Here’s hoping MacT figures out 2 backups do not equal 1 starter.

  105. theres oil in virginia says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    I still think it will be Quick.

    …and painful.

  106. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Woodguy: Because you’re a Flames fan?

    I’m suggesting if we are looking at Ward we’re looking at Pavelec. I don’t want them to pick up Pavelec.

  107. Dark Asia says:

    Choose your poison? MacT blew off both his feet and the shots ricocheted through his head in his handling of goalies over the last 20 months. The last two seasons have been about fantastically bad defense and goaltending created by a rookie coach and GM combo flailing around without a clue.

    First he very publicly states that Dubnyk had proven nothing in the summer of 2013 (except putting up league average or better numbers behind Swiss cheese) and then proceeds to try acquire Schneider as his replacement. MacT then spends two 3rd round picks and more money than Dubnyk was being paid to watch Scrivens and Fasth try and fail to perform behind the disgrace know as the Oilers defense (largely constructed by MacT as well).

    Meanwhile Dubnyk (who was signed for a song by a real GM in ARZ and acquired for a 3rd round pick by another real GM in MIN) returned to form behind another bad team in Arizona and then absolutely bloomed playing in a solid defensive system in Minnesota. His numbers have been better than the consensus Vezina and potential Hart winner Carey Price since he joined the Wild. Let that little fact sink in for a second before you continue pondering how badly MacT screwed up the goaltending situation in EDM. Dubnyk has been better than Price in the 2nd half of the season. Bravo MacT.

  108. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Bohologo,

    Also he got relegated to backup duty in Hamilton after MTL sent him to the minors.

    It’s purely speculative to say that the reason he struggled that year is MacT’s comment. It’s equally as speculative to suggest that his down year was the kick in the pants he needed to refocus and rededicate.

    We don’t know what would have been if Dubnyk had stuck around.

  109. GCW_69 says:

    slambanna: Every teams number here made perfect sense until I got to Philly.
    “There is no way Philly’s goaltending is worse than their D” I thought “Mason is sporting a .927 this season”

    So I looked in to it:

    Mason 47 games .927

    Emery 29 games .892
    Zepp 10 games .888

    The Philly goaltending curse does indeed continue.

    The Moral of the story is that I think we can take these numbers to bank.

    By that, I mean Mud Crutch can take these to MacT’s desk, with a big “be careful what you do with this information”.

    Berube and Mason don’t get along. Maybe Mason shakes free?

  110. Kmart99 says:

    G Money: LOL.One small problem, Ricki.

    While you poopoo the importance of spelling and grammar, the fact is you could claim ANY idea as being yours because nobody really understands what you’re saying.

    You list piles of numbers with no context, no explanation, and draw seemingly unrelated conclusions from them.

    You can claim anything you want if you do that.

    Rob, on the other hand, has been doing this for years, explains his methodology carefully, and publishes all of his data.

    I can’t speak for others, but when you do the same – when both your analysis and exposition come to being at least in the same ballpark of rigour as those guys present – I’ll accord you the credit you seem to crave.Maybe get your assistants to help.

    Until then, your posts (while entertaining) don’t get much more than a cursory read.

    The relevance of your work is what others understand of it, not what you claim of it.

    Please don’t confuse with reason.

  111. sliderule says:

    They have Sunday’s hi lights up on OHL web site.

    If you want to get your own view on Strome /Marner debate its a must look

  112. PhrankLee says:

    Sounds like they’ve set the draft lottery for April 18.

    On a game night.

  113. russ99 says:

    I want a veteran #1 so MacT and whoever the coach is doesn’t screw him up.

    Fasth is a cautionary tale on how messed up this organization is. He obviously earned the job out of camp, was pushed down to 1A, even though Scrivens didn’t start well then the whole Chabot problem went down and then he lost whatever edge he had out of camp.

    Plus nobody’s ever really effectively juggled 2 goalies through an NHL season, there needs to be a #1 and a #2. Gotta wonder if it’s the usual organization hubris to think they’re the ones smart enough to do it, just like three scoring lines in the West, a bunch of kids in the backline, etc…

    We go into next year with Jones and Scrivens, the same thing will happen, mark my words…

    We need a goalie that’s dummyproof.

  114. HiddenDarts says:

    GCW_69: Berube and Mason don’t get along. Maybe Mason shakes free?

    Er, apparently he doesn’t like Rexall’s lighting.

  115. 719 says:

    @DashingSilverFox – you were correct about Crawford he has a full no-movement clause. I did not know that.

    According to the 4th period, the following goalies have no movement/no-trade clauses:
    Henrik Lundqvist
    Pekka Rinnne
    Roberto Luongo
    Mike Smith
    Tuuka Rask
    Cam Ward
    Kari Lehtonen
    Jimmy Howard
    N. Backstrom
    Pekka Rinne
    Marc Fleury
    Ryan Miller

    Pretty sure none of those guys are coming to Edmonton.

  116. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Bohologo,

    Absolutely.

  117. Yeti says:

    russ99: We need a goalie that’s dummyproof.

    I think you need to think outside the box. Time to revisit the three-headed goalie situation that worked so well a few years back.

  118. grim.oil says:

    DashingSilverFox, your list of teams that would not want Crawford is several teams too long. You even included Buffalo the team that traded their best goalie more than once in an effort to tank. That is MacT “Nikitin is a solid top 4” talk.

    Russ99, if two teams never successfully juggled 2 goalies through an NHL season than how come St.Louis dominated as a top Western conference team for multiple years with Halak and Elliot? Or this year with Elliot and Allen? The answer is.. They have a solid team throughout there roster. Including 3 really good D-men in Shattenkirk, Pietrangelo and Bouwmeester.

    As of the goalie situation, well it doesn’t matter. We could have Price, Rask, Quick, Rinne, Or King Hank and it wouldn’t matter when they have only Klefbom, Marincin and Fayne in front of them. Don’t get me wrong as I like these 3 d-men but they are not St.Louis’ top 3 or even a bubble teams top 3. Oilers hole on defense is horrid and the #1 problem facing the Oil. Don’t talk to me about management that is another subject entirely. I’m talking about the team on the ice. Not the coach, not the GM, not Lowe. The Oilers need a solid minute eater, a veteran who can pave the way (not a Ference) and has playoff experience. The guy everyone seems to be talking about is Seabrook who I would love to see wearing an Oil sweater but I doubt Chicago moves him. Still if he can be had than the Oil should get him. Would prefer him and another maybe goalie next year. Possibly Vasilevsky from T.B.

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