SEGER!

The payoff for fans is to see young players matriculate towards their goal and arrive at it with steady progress. It doesn’t always happen—the chances of a No. 40 overall pick playing 100 NHL games are 34%—so when it does happen, it’s cause for celebration.

SWEDISH POSTER

In the comments section below, our friend Swedish Poster delivered a very valuable link and was kind enough to pass along a (sometimes) hilarious and poignant interview with young Anton Lander. The link is here, and the following is from SP:

Great little article about Lander on swedish hockey site hockeysverige. Some money quotes from Lander that might get lost in google translation:

  • “It hasn’t been fun, a lot of nights you were really angry and really sick of it all, to be honest. At the same time, we also had great fun in OKC, it’s a great bunch of guys and leaders.” (About his road to the NHL and the frustration when he didn’t get there.)
  • Reporter: Were there ever any thoughts of going back to Europe? “Both. Some days I thought I might as well say screw it and go home. Somewhere in the back of my head I knew europe was there, but I’ve always had the NHL as my goal, that I was going to make it. I’ll work harder and I’ll show that I can play here[in the NHL].”
  • “The thought [going to Europe] was there but I don’t like to quit. I like to fight for it.”
  • “This summer I said (add curse word of your choice) enough is enough. It has to be all in so I worked hard this summer.”
  • He came to camp in superb shape but didn’t find his game at all and was sent back to the AHL. “There are two options. You can either blame everything and everyone, or you can get mad at yourself and try as hard as you possibly can down there, show them you want to come back.”
  • “I got back up after the new year, I got some bounces and confidence and then I built from there. Right now I’m here so I just have to keep going.”
  • ‘”I think I’ve developed all over the ice. I’m a little quicker on my skates and more patient with the puck. I’ve even started to throw some hits, you have to here.”, he says laughing.’ (On what’s gotten better since he played in Sweden.)
  • “They’re two fast buggers. I try to have the puck on my stick as little as possible and just move it to the wings.” (On playing with Hall and Miller.)
  • It’s like back in the days when playing with Pääjärvi? the reporter then asks. “Haha, yeah. Like the old days with Mange. Yeah, but almost like that. That’s when I learned it. I was never that fast of a skater so you move it to the wings.”
  • Then he makes some comments about the teams struggles and that they have nothing but honour and their linemates to play for. The importance for the team to bounce back before he finishes off with this contemplation on his journey up to this point: “Yeah, I guess there’s some kind of melody to it too. It hasn’t been a silverspoon. It’s been a learning experience. I’ve gotten a lot of responsibility in Oklahoma, on and off the ice. It’s been a fun but also somewhat tough journey. A lot of flights up and down, many days you’ve been happy but also days you’ve been completely sick of it. But it’s worth every practice to play in this league.”

Future captain I tell you. (end Swedish Poster). My sincere thanks to Swedish Poster for passing that along. I agree with SP, future captain. Whatever “it” is, Anton Lander has it.

The dollars are a little more dear than first reported and (as discussed yesterday) Edmonton is putting themselves in a tough negotiating position that appears to be identical to the Jeff Petry process. That said, Lander’s NHL tenure (he was elevated too soon) and experience (he has arrived late in the window) suggest the actual dollars are reasonable if not exceptional.

BACK IN ’09

  • Stu MacGregor: “Very excited about Anton. He’s a player we look at as a potential second-line centre with for sure third-line ability. He’s a great faceoff man, competitive at both ends of the ice. Smart, captain of the Swedish under-18 team. All of our interviews with all of the Swedish players this past year, everybody spoke extremely high of him. Their leader was Anton Lander.” Source

TWO YEARS LATER

  • Stu MacGregor Summer Camp 2011: “His effort is so consistent, every shift. The best way to put it is he works smart. He’s really intelligent, good on ­faceoffs. That really stood out for us. His skating may have held him back from being a first-round pick, but it’s improved.” Article is here.

 BAD CASTING

  • Dallas Eakins: Eakins:“If (Lander) is going to play here, he has to be able to play centre, he has to play left-wing and he has to play right-wing. He has to be able to step in on the power play and kill penalties. He has to be able to wear a bunch of different hats.
  • LOWETIDE RE LANDER 14-15: Why can’t the Oilers identify the role players? They can and will, but there’s also a need to commit to a player for 45 games and see what he can do in a specific role. Signing Ryan Jones year after year, or even bringing in Joensuu a year ago, those were moves to buy time. NOW you let Lander loose, Pitlick loose. They don’t have Jones’ offense, but should be more effective players without the puck. Source

I think Dallas Eakins miscast Lander (he is a center) and Todd Nelson knew him so well it was a much easier road when the team changed the coach. That’s not a condemnation of Eakins, he was looking for useful players, needed a penalty killer and chose a guy he knew could do the job (Will Acton). Nelson’s Lander does in fact play a variety of roles but it’s farther up the food chain. Instead of being a utility forward who chips in as needed (Rob Klinkhammer), Lander’s role under Nelson is far more prominent. He is in fact the guy who plays at evens, power play and penalty kill but at center and as a big part of the machine. Last night’s first goal came with Lander playing the Ryan Smyth role, and he was one of two players who finished with a plus against Los Angeles.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

I think the major lesson here is that Anton Lander succeeded despite the Edmonton Oilers and that should tighten the sphincters on Kingsway 24/7. He arrived from Sweden with an impressive spike in foot speed and the team immediately pushed him beyond what he was able to handle. When that happened, he was thrust into a specific, utility role despite improving offense in Oklahoma City. Todd Nelson’s arrival and belief, married to Lander’s talents and determination, have us here.

MY THOUGHTS

I’m happy Lander is signed and will be here for two years but it does set up that sticky wicket that Petry used to gain free agency in lowest term available. MacT has legitimate risk in this contract:

  • Lander’s value two years from now is very likely to spike
  • The organization’s ability to recognize value in their own back yard has been compromised by the actions taken in regard to Petry

I remain convinced the Oilers don’t make the smart bet consistently. I’ll pause a moment further to add, that when it comes to their own successful draft picks, they aren’t making smart bets at all (Petry, now Lander). There’s every chance they either lose the player in the lowest time served possible or pay full price on the UFA years. That can’t be applauded even on a day we’re all pleased Lander will be back for two more seasons.

A final note on scouting and development. Much has been made about the poor scouting by this organization over the last several years but I think Lander’s journey should serve as a sober reminder that development is a major item for the Edmonton Oilers. This team does very little right after draft day and that has to change before they’ll be competitive.

If you think that’s harsh, or that 2009 or 2011 was a long time ago, I encourage you to consider Leon Draisaitl’s first season in the organization.

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157 Responses to "SEGER!"

  1. leadfarmer says:

    I dont see how Professor Sievens is not bought out this summer. When he lets in a goal its like he expects it.

  2. leadfarmer says:

    I dont get the dollar amount for that contract. He has played fairly well since being brought up, but he was on waivers early this season and he is lucky to have a guaranteed salary for 2 seasons. There is no reason to give him more than a million per year for that second year.

  3. LadiesloveSmid says:

    leadfarmer:
    I dont see how Professor Sievens is not bought out this summer.When he lets in a goal its like he expects it.

    this morning Scrivens sits at .893. Identical to Dubnyk when they sent him outta town last season.

  4. elgruntus says:

    C’mon Lowetide. MacT is just “challenging” Lander with this contract. 🙂

    Somewhere, Santayana is crying.

  5. leadfarmer says:

    I don’t think he is a comparison for Draisatl. Draisatl is stuck in the stupid rule where he is too good for the juniors but not ready for the NHL, Lander wasn’t ready for the NHL and should have been sent to the AHL from the start. The Oilers didn’t have that option with Draisatl and if the NHL cares for the development of players they will adjust that rule to at least let the top 5 drafted players play in the AHL post draft year and top 10 play in the AHL the following year.

  6. leadfarmer says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    But if you combine that with how he handles the puck like a live grenade, and the league didn’t shrink down his pads in the offseason, and he didn’t just have a baby just prior to training camp, and the GM didn’t give you a vote of no confidence in the offseason to shake your confidence. I would not bet on a recovery for Professor Sieve, although I do hope he does as he seems like a decent guy.

  7. GCW_69 says:

    I don’t mind the contract as much as you do, LT. The real test is what they do with it next summer. By next summer Lander should have a full season under his belt and they should have confirmation about what he is. If they finally “get it”, they will sign Lander longer term next summer when he is two years from free agency. If its business as usual, next summer will pass without a peep about a Lander extension. We should not judge until then.

    We wait.

    (Look at me, defending a MacT move – someone check if hell froze over…)

  8. Bar_Qu says:

    This is a great insight into how poorly run this organization is. Anton Lander was about to go the way of Cogliano, Gagner and Pajaarvi, and the Oilers never asked themselves “are we doing something wrong here?” Some forensic audit. Lander was a guy I was behind from the moment he was drafted and I simply couldn’t believe the lack of NHL production was real based on his track record and AHL production. He has arrived despite the Oilers as LT said. Good on him and I hope he can put the screws to them in a year and a half.

    leadfarmer:
    I dont see how Professor Sievens is not bought out this summer.When he lets in a goal its like he expects it.

    This is not the right solution either. The Song of Dubnyk the Bold should inform us here. Scrivens is not this bad, so maybe it has something to do with the absolute crime of a roster that the Oilers have put together and how it affects a goalie’s confidence. Keep Scrivens, get another top flight goalie (there will be enough this summer – I’m on the Neuvirth train) and then construct the roster correctly at all positions. Don’t play guys above their ability, or have a “if he plays at x level then we’ll be fine” mentality.

    Balance.

    I don’t know if that has been mentioned at this blog before, but a balanced roster would be immensely helpful. 😉

  9. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Draisaitl is interesting. I’ve watched more WHL this year than I ever have, and that includes seeing some of him at this level. MacT didn’t want him in PA, and wanted him to have a legit shot at a real playoff run.

    The problem is that Drai, at this level, is for sure good enough to get PA into the playoffs on his own merits. So if he sends Drai down, it’s a full year in PA for sure.

    I’m not saying I agree with the course of action taken, but I am saying that his treatment of Drai was by no means devoid of logic.

  10. Yeti says:

    On the Lander contract (and apologies if this was discussed at length yesterday): can he simply file for arbitration when it comes to the close of year 2, take whatever is awarded, and then walk as an UFA the following summer?

  11. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Bar_Qu,

    Scrivens has performed before, and had a bad year. We don’t want to give up on the guy, but I think making him a true #2 next year is probably the correct course of action. I’d like to see him play 20 games behind Craig Anderson.

  12. supernova says:

    A final note on scouting and development. Much has been made about the poor scouting by this organization over the last several years but I think Lander’s journey should serve as a sober reminder that development is a major item for the Edmonton Oilers. This team does very little right after draft day and that has to change before they’ll be competitive.

    —————

    As you likely know LT This has been exactly my criticism for years on the Oilers.

    If you like I can direct you some of my work and how it relates to other organizations.

    —————–

    If the Oilers don’t have a proper support system or support players it places players in areas of failure and not success.

    -They have been misusing the 50 man list for years.

    -They play way too many veterans on their farm team, that have no real chance of a NHL career

    Lander is producing in a system that;

    -Has confidence in him
    -puts him in a place to succeed ( better players, better ice time opportunities)
    – not trying to make him into something he is unsure of
    – RNH, Gordon taking on different opponents
    – they rushed him, then retreated, then looked like they were deserting him. That doesn’t seem like a development plan. It’s against the odds he actually produced for them

  13. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Yeti,

    There is nothing in Lander’s character to suggest he would walk away from this team without giving them a fair shake.

    More importantly, if he walks away from this team because it’s a hot mess three years from now, then we’ll have much bigger problems to deal with than the loss of Anton Lander. I say that as a huge fan of the guy; we simply have to be a better team 3 years from now, one that our existing players want to keep playing for, and the occasional free agent wants to join.

  14. Zack says:

    It’s nice to see Lander signed, been cheering like hell for him and I hope he sticks.

    In Draft Lottery news, the lottery will not be live this year…

    http://m.thn.com/blog/nhl-will-make-video-of-draft-lottery-available-for-first-time-ever/

  15. VanOil says:

    MacT has said he wanted to add leadership this summer. For me he just did, I doubt he sees it that way though and is casting about for another Ference.

    I would swap Jultz, Purcell on a 1.5M retain and the Oilers 2nd for Adam Larsson.

    Then send St. Louis’ 3d and a 2016 3d for Paarvai.

    Sign Patrick Hearsly.

    3 for 1! More Swedes good!

  16. wordbird says:

    leadfarmer,

    Has there been a worse Oilers tandem in terms of goalie meltdowns? Both Scrivens and Fasth this year have both been super fragile… one bad goal you might as well give ’em the hook. With Fasth, I’ve actually liked his fire, he gets angry when he stinks (but we’ve seen the last of him in Oilers silks). Scrivens, I don’t know – it seems like a pretty fine line between great Ben and awful Ben.
    I’m not sure I’d bring him back either. Go get Neuvirth and Raanta (and a new goalie coach while you are at it)

  17. Bar_Qu says:

    Ca$h-Money!,

    I totally agree. I don’t think Scrivens is as bad as this, but have the same concerns as being a clear-cut number one going forward. Get a guy who can play the number one position and have Scrivens play 1B. It works in other organizations, it could work for the Oilers.

    Anderson, Neuvirth, Niemi, Raanta, etc, etc. It should be easy to get a goalie for money or a song this summer. Get it done.

  18. Kmart99 says:

    I could see Nuge Drai Lander as being a decent 1-2-3 in 3 years. On goes the infinibuild.

  19. leadfarmer says:

    VanOil,

    And NJ says you know that Larsson has 8 less points than Schultz while getting more that 2:30 minutes less of powerplay time a game and is now playing consistently 20-25 minutes a game. A one year rental on Purcell isn’t much value and a second round pick is the piece with the highest value out of the three and is nowhere near where NJD will want negotiations to start.

    Jultz’s value is probably about at a reclamation projects level

  20. Bar_Qu says:

    Kmart99:
    I could see Nuge Drai Lander as being a decent 1-2-3 in 3 years.On goes the infinibuild.

    But Nuge, Gordon, Lander is a good 1-2-3 for next year and likely the year after that.

  21. leadfarmer says:

    wordbird,

    Bachman’s last two games were the best two game stint of any of our goalies this year. Le Sigh.

  22. Kmart99 says:

    Was it G Money that posted stats showing Crawford as having top sv% against shots from high scoring chance areas? He also showed that CHI gives up high quality shots at a similar rate as the Oilers, questioning the hype around their team defense and the underrated state of Corey Crawford.

    This seems like pretty good data supporting Corey Crawford as a good pick up, or am I remembering wrong?

  23. John Chambers says:

    So glad the Oilers got their asses handed to them in Cali. Things we’re going so well this naive poster suggested they had turned a corner …

    Bold moves are needed this summer.

    Mr Nicholson – tear down this wall of incompetent management!

  24. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Bar_Qu,

    I actually don’t think Scrivens is in a position to be a 1B next year, at least not starting out that way. I know our defence has been bad this year, but goaltending has been worse. In my mind he’s worth keeping around, but I think he needs to play his way up to a 1B position. Clear cut 1 and 2 next year would be ideal.

  25. John Chambers says:

    Kmart99,

    In my opinion (which is frequently wrong) – Crawford is the best possibly available goalie. I think he’s a top-10 NHL net minder at a prime age. If he’s at all available it’s the kind of move that could leap us forward 15 points in the standings.

    If you could get Chicago to take back Ference (salary retained) along with the Perron pick it would be a coup,

  26. 719 says:

    I know everyone is gloom and doom after yesterday but consider:

    Oilers played the second night on a back to back
    The boxcars were not that bad, Oilers played really well against the Kings overall.

    The thing that sunk the Oil was goaltending. Look at all the other numbers and the two teams were pretty close. Save percentage is what sunk the Oilers against L.A.

  27. GCW_69 says:

    VanOil:
    MacT has said he wanted to add leadership this summer. For me he just did, I doubt he sees it that way though and is casting about for another Ference.

    I would swap Jultz, Purcell on a 1.5M retain and the Oilers 2nd for Adam Larsson.

    Then send St. Louis’ 3d and a 2016 3d for Paarvai.

    Sign Patrick Hearsly.

    3 for 1! More Swedes good!

    Hasn’t Larsson been playing top pairing recently? A quick check at In Lou We Trust suggests scaly that Larsson is playing with Greene and getting both the toughest zone starts and toughest competition. Why work Lou make that move? You want Larsson you probably have to send Leon the other way. I could see Lou making a Leon and Marincin for Larsson trade given how much depth he has in young defenders and how weak they are up front. Or, if we got McDavid in the draft, trading Larsson and maybe Henrique for Nuge.

  28. HiddenDarts says:

    A good friend, who is also a Kings fan, never misses the opportunity to chirp and laugh when it comes to the plight of his team vs. the Oilers. Last night, the performance by Scrivens was so absolutely awful that he said nothing. Absolutely nothing. “Well, we needed the two points,” was all he said.

    I felt like the team started a few steps slow and the Kings were playing like it was for Stanley, but that first goal was just soul destroying.

    It’s scary how bad this team can be sometimes, but having an ECHL quality goalie makes this tire fire the hottest and most polluting the NHL.

  29. 719 says:

    John Chambers:
    Kmart99,

    In my opinion (which is frequently wrong) – Crawford is the best possibly available goalie. I think he’s a top-10 NHL net minder at a prime age. If he’s at all available it’s the kind of move that could leap us forward 15 points in the standings.

    If you could get Chicago to take back Ference (salary retained) along with the Perron pick it would be a coup,

    I doubt Crawford or any goalie with a no trade will come to Edmonton. I think the best option is Neuvrith and a Raanta or other equal goalie who does not have a no trade.

  30. VanOil says:

    leadfarmer: Jultz’s value is probably about at a reclamation projects level

    I heard talk of a Norris!

  31. jake70 says:

    John Chambers: So glad the Oilers got their asses handed to them in Cali. Things we’re going so well this naive poster suggested they had turned a corner …Bold moves are needed this summer. Mr Nicholson – tear down this wall of incompetent management!

    I think all evaluations of this team, stats and otherwise should be done using only the best teams as competition. Pick X number of teams from west and east, compile your players stats from games played vs those teams only. I mean those teams set the bar, find out what you do best and where you crap the bed, against those teams only. Play a few crappy eastern teams and all is well, then the reality of playing the west as seen last 2 nights. I am oversimplifying this I know.

  32. HiddenDarts says:

    GCW_69, VanOil:,

    Er, New Jersey won’t give up on Larsson. They just got through the rough parts. Why trade him for a winger playing defense when the rewards are finally starting to show?

  33. Lowetide says:

    719:
    I know everyone is gloom and doom after yesterday but consider:

    Oilers played the second night on a back to back
    The boxcars were not that bad, Oilers played really well against the Kings overall.

    The thing that sunk the Oil was goaltending.Look at all the other numbers and the two teams were pretty close.Save percentage is what sunk the Oilers against L.A.

    The most incredible item from last night: the kid Bunz, in what was probably the most thrilling and overwhelming night of his life, damn near matched the starter in save percentage.

  34. Rondo says:

    719,

    LA played their A game against the Oilers, because it was a must win for them. Usually they bring their B game and win against the Oilers.

  35. Kmart99 says:

    719: I doubt Crawford or any goalie with a no trade will come to Edmonton.I think the best option is Neuvrith and a Raanta or other equal goalie who does not have a no trade.

    Damn the NMC. Should’ve looked that up before suggesting acquiring him.

  36. Doubting Olive says:

    John Chambers:
    So glad the Oilers got their asses handed to them in Cali. Things we’re going so well this naive poster suggested they had turned a corner …

    Bold moves are needed this summer.

    Mr Nicholson – tear down this wall of incompetent management!

    Ha, I used that quote the other day! Makes me giggle imagining it in Ronnie’s voice.

  37. stephen sheps says:

    GCW_69:
    I don’t mind the contract as much as you do, LT.The real test is what they do with it next summer.By next summer Lander should have a full season under his belt and they should have confirmation about what he is.If they finally “get it”, they will sign Lander longer term next summer when he is two years from free agency.If its business as usual, next summer will pass without a peep about a Lander extension.We should not judge until then.

    We wait.

    (Look at me, defending a MacT move – someone check if hell froze over…)

    This is where I’m at, too. Was going to post something similar yesterday afternoon, but spaced out doing work. Nothing is stopping the team from extending him another 2-3 years as of July 1 2016 other than a major drop-off in Lander’s performance next season, (which I think we can say is unlikely) or complete and utter managerial incompetence, (which I think we can safely say is quite probable…)

    I’m not convinced this 2 year ‘bridge’ deal is a Petry redux just yet. Next year will determine Lander’s future with the team over the long haul. And like Swedish Poster, I definitely see him as Captain material.

    As to the cap hit and salary in year 2? Really it’s only a little bit more than was originally reported. 1.55Mil (and a combined cap-hit of 1.2375) is definitely a value contract, especially on a team that’s paying Nikitin 4.5, Jultz something ridiculous, and Ference for 2 more years. This is not a sky is falling bad roster management situation in the same way that many of the contracts on the team are and it surprises me that there is as much angst about it. As fans, have we collectively become chicken little?

  38. frjohnk says:

    Kmart99:
    Was it G Money that posted stats showing Crawford as having top sv% against shots from high scoring chance areas? He also showed that CHI gives up high quality shots at a similar rate as the Oilers, questioning the hype around their team defense and the underrated state ofCorey Crawford.

    This seems like pretty good data supporting Corey Crawford as a good pick up, or am I remembering wrong?

    That was me. I showed that Chicago gave up just below league average shots when weighting for location. They were not far from Edmonton. But the numbers were ytd to the trade deadline.

    Crawford saves from the “arrow” 87.8%. From the perimeter 98.1%
    League average arrow save % 87.0%. Perimeter 96.7%.

    If just looking at shots from the high danger area
    Crawford save % is 82.9%
    League average is 82.5%

    I think there are better goalies when we use the value factor with his contract. (6.6 AAV)

  39. smellyglove says:

    LT:

    Damn you and your perspective. I sold out Lander and Dubnyk, “send them away, the bums!”, while you preached patience and understanding. Turns out you were right, and that only comes from years of observing.

  40. Woodguy says:

    I’m happy Lander is signed and will be here for two years but it does set up that sticky wicket that Petry used to gain free agency in lowest term available. MacT has legitimate risk in this contract:

    With what they just went through with Petry you’d think they would have learned.

    Nope.

    1 years experience 9 years in a row.

  41. Lowetide says:

    smellyglove:
    LT:

    Damn you and your perspective. I sold out Lander and Dubnyk, “send them away, the bums!”, while you preached patience and understanding. Turns out you were right, and that only comes from years of observing.

    I think they had to send DD away he was a mess and it wasn’t getting better. Thrilled he’s doing well now though.

  42. DocFan says:

    First – Development. Everyone can agree this is the weakest point of this organization. How many years did we not have a farm team?

    Second – Goalies. This team is where goalies are eaten alive. The Defence Corps is so weak in depth that they are hurting for the return of Ference – a 5/6/7 defensemen. How can you expect a goalie to develop confidence in a situation like this? Do you think it’s a coincidence that I established goalies with skill – dubnyk, fasth, Scrivens – have struggled here? Maybe an stablished goalie in their prime could survive. And with respect to options for the summer who can you sign that would help? maybe Neurvirth? But he fits the same description of the above 3. You bring him here with the same defense, same result. Trade options? Howard is 31 and signed for 6 million/yr x 4-5 years. Crawford? Is he worth the money? They will not get a Jones or Talbot. If I were MacT – keep Scrivens, sign a 2 yr deal with another potential starter and spend all your time/effort/money on defense. Protect the goalies a little better to let them develop (see point one) and they will get better. We need to flush Nikitin, out Ference in a role to succeed and sign atleast 1 if not 2 top 4 D. You want to get better now? That’s the only way. (IMHO).

    Three – Pray for lottery win. Suddenly all is fixed.

  43. Woodguy says:

    Kmart99:
    Was it G Money that posted stats showing Crawford as having top sv% against shots from high scoring chance areas? He also showed that CHI gives up high quality shots at a similar rate as the Oilers, questioning the hype around their team defense and the underrated state ofCorey Crawford.

    This seems like pretty good data supporting Corey Crawford as a good pick up, or am I remembering wrong?

    You have that right, although it was Padre John K who posted it.

    This year he’s been very good.

    His longer term track record isn’t as good.

  44. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    If a player doesn’t want to be here, there is little you can do to keep him here. If its Lander’s plan to get to Free Agency and leave as quick as possible that is his choice.

  45. book¡je says:

    719:
    I know everyone is gloom and doom after yesterday…

    If you waited until yesterday to be gloom and doom, you might be the worlds most optimistic person.

  46. John Chambers says:

    Doubting Olive,

    It is apt isn’t it.

    I feel like Oiler fans have collectively been very patient, a few tossed jerseys aside, but enough is enough already.

  47. wordbird says:

    Lowetide: I think they had to send DD away he was a mess and it wasn’t getting better. Thrilled he’s doing well now though.

    From Elliot Friedman this morning:

    “29. Emptying the notebook on Devan Dubnyk: one of the things he really worked on last summer was his mental approach. Dubnyk was in a bad place after everything went sideways during the 2013-14 season.

    “I needed to understand that being here (in the NHL), even if it isn’t going well, isn’t so bad,” he said.

    One of the suggested tips was thinking of his young son while driving to the rink. No matter what’s on your mind beforehand, that thought will put you in a better place. Dubnyk is so serene he didn’t go all Billy Smith when Mathew Dumba drilled him high twice in a practice. Dumba’s got a deadly shot and laughed when asked about the incident.

    “After I did that, I figured I’d better be careful…he came up to me, pinned me against a wall and said, ‘Stop going so easy, just shoot it.’”

    Carte Blanche to hit him, I guess.”

    Dubie got HIS mind right. Hopefully the Oilers hire an entire graduating class of sports physiologists to help out our current ‘tenders. :/

  48. Henry says:

    If Lander had signed a 1 year contract now, he would be an RFA again July 2016. Would he have arbitration rights then under the current CBA? If so it would appear that he could just go to arb and sign another one year to enjoy the situation with regard to UFA status that he currently has.

    Is this the current situation or did it only apply to the previous CBA?

  49. russ99 says:

    To assume that fixing the goalie will magically fix everything is naive.

    Still lots of holes in this roster. I hope to god MacT’s learned from his unfortunate telegraphing in the media of his first summer and that his public statements aren’t necessarily where we’re going.

    Even if the New Arena plan/consipiracy is real, you can’t just turn on a light in 2016-17 and get playoffs. We need to take necessary steps now with the NHL roster in order to get there.

  50. Traktor says:

    Let’s see what Petry gets in free agency and what happens with Lander two years from now.

    If Lander turns it up even more and deserves a big contract great… I don’t have any doubts that he will sign.

    With Petry Edmonton never thought he was worth the money… Even a few days from free agency they were still offering him a lot less under what most free agents get. Petry is pretty overrated on this blog … I think mostly because it gives people ammo to harp on management.

    I don’t lose a wink of sleep over Petry. The goaltending situation however….

    Oh yeah…and for some odd reason this blog tends to protect Eakins with his fancy stats or whatever….he is the one who healthy scratched Petry lol

  51. Adam Wu says:

    DocFan:
    First – Development. Everyone can agree this is the weakest point of this organization. How many years did we not have a farm team?

    Second – Goalies. This team is where goalies are eaten alive. The Defence Corps is so weak in depth that they are hurting for the return of Ference – a 5/6/7 defensemen.How can you expect a goalie to develop confidence in a situation like this? Do you think it’s a coincidence that I established goalies with skill – dubnyk, fasth, Scrivens – have struggled here? Maybe an stablished goalie in their prime could survive. And with respect to options for the summer who can you sign that would help? maybe Neurvirth? But he fits the same description of the above 3. You bring him here with the same defense, same result. Trade options? Howard is 31 and signed for 6 million/yrx 4-5 years. Crawford? Is he worth the money? They will not get a Jones or Talbot. If I were MacT – keep Scrivens, sign a 2 yr deal with another potential starter and spend all your time/effort/money on defense.Protect the goalies a little better to let them develop (see point one) and they will get better. We need to flush Nikitin, out Ference in a role to succeed and sign atleast 1 if not 2 top 4 D. You want to get better now? That’s the only way. (IMHO).

    Three – Pray for lottery win. Suddenly all is fixed.

    There is a flaw in your logic here. If the biggest problems are development, and goalies, how is a lottery pick who is a C, even if he is a generational C, going to help? Is he going to be so good that he simply scores a goal to match every bad goal the goalies let in? And even a generational talent needs development as an 18y old.

  52. frjohnk says:

    RE: goaltenders

    If next year, the goalies don’t have to go through a goalie coach change, a head coach change, the goalies will be better off.

    If next year, our defence do not give up so many odd man rushes/breakaways like they did at the beginning of the year, the goalies will be better off.

    I think our goalies got untracked pretty much at the beginning of the year. Remember the PP? We cringed when the Oilers had one because the other team was going to get a glorious change. How many times did Fasth come unglued at his team? They lost confidence with the defence.

    So then our goalies became desperate and were chasing the game. Anybody remember Scrivens throwing himself around the crease and us thinking WTF is that guy doing? A goalie who is totally out of position many times is a goalie that does not trust his defence and is chasing the game.

    Even though now, the head and goalie coach spots are stabilized and depending on the game our defence do not give up the oddman rushes/breakaways like at the beginning of the year, our goalies have not improved.

    Scrivens needs a reset. The guy had a .917 save percentage pre Edmonton and put up good numbers in the AHL and college before that. He is extremely smart, will do what ever he can to better himself and he will give everything he has each night. I love his battle and passion.

    Im not saying he will become the starter we need, but he will come back new and improved next year. Book it.

  53. Traktor says:

    I also think Lander DESERVES a 2 year deal. The situation is nothing like Petry’s.

    This guy battled and battled and he was rewarded with 2 years. Good on him.

  54. Pouzar says:

    Not tooting my horn here but in watching OKC this year I have championed Bogdan, Lander, and I said Andrew Miller was the most improved Baron by far. My next victim is Brossoit. I am fully on his bandwagon. Looks huge in net and moves like a cat with crazy flexibility but his positioning is so good you rarely his reflexes on display. I wish he could get a couple starts with the big club before the AHL playoffs.

  55. Traktor says:

    There is also nothing guaranteeing Lander would sign a long term deal if Edmonton choose to sign him for 1 year instead of 2. The ball is always in the players court. If he wanted to go to free agency he could just as easy sign another 1 year deal and there he is.

  56. wordbird says:

    frjohnk,

    Next season will be reeeeeallly interesting, goaltender-wise. Do the Oilers sign a proven vet (Anderson, Niemi) to run with Scrivens? If Matt O’Connor signs, is it he and Scrivens? O’Connor and a vet? Or a new batch of goalies altogether?

  57. Ribs says:

    russ99: Even if the New Arena plan/consipiracy is real, you can’t just turn on a light in 2016-17 and get playoffs. We need to take necessary steps now with the NHL roster in order to get there.

    It is kind of interesting to look at the dominoes in place for 16-17, so far.

    http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/EDM?year=2015

    Hendricks and Ference at the end of their deals, everyone else signed is a keeper. Then there’s a few kids at the end of their deals that should be just about ready to play if they are legit pros. I hope the pro scouts are evaluating the possible future UFA pool for that year. Lots of holes to fill!

  58. dangilitis says:

    I strongly agree with most of what you have said here, LT,

    Except…

    “Todd Nelson’s arrival and belief, married to Lander’s talents and determination, have us here.”

    I would add that a big piece missing here is opportunity. Eakins should have tried Lander earlier in such a role this season when there was nothing to lose, but with RNH & Gagner rightly or wrongly solidifying a 1-2 C punch for the last few years, and little forward depth beyond the first 2 lines, there was not much of a chance for Lander to come up in the 3-4 role and play a stretch with useful players (and despite some verbal here, MPS and co. were never offensive players in the NHL). One could make the argument that Gagner going down gave Lander a chance, but Arco played admirably in this role and there was no need at the time to give Lander that look. 14-15, in my opinion, was the only year that Lander truly had an opportunity to play a string of games with decent quality linemates on “line 2” or “line 3” and fill a niche on PP and PK. The funny thing is that Roy’s arrival in Nelson’s tenure actually gave Lander less opportunity, Nelson just ensured that he received it. So agree Nelson was key, Lander’s drive was key, but neither would have been possible if he wasn’t given the right conditions to succeed from MacT’s foolish summer planning (depth on the wings without centers and a paucity of proven penalty killers or PP grinders)

    “Lander’s value two years from now is very likely to spike”

    While this is true, I am not sure I agree with this being used as an argument against the terms and length of this contract.

    1) Scneario 1: If he is more developed as a 3rd line C, then great, we found this option internally and got 2.5 bargain years (including this half season) of a developed talent. 1 mil/season for a 3rd line pivot is a bargain, and if you think he will only get better at this role, than 1 mil/season for an above average-great 3rd line C is an even better bargain. I really can’t see a 3rd line C asking for the stars and the moon, so let’s say absolute worst case scenario he asks for 3 million/UFA year. Good management (I know this is the key, but stay with me) will figure this out the summer before, and then decide whether he is worth 2-3 mil/season as a 3rd line C, or whether they can find a better option internally (e.g. Yakimov, less likely Platzer or Marco Roy) or in the UFA pool (e.g. ala Commissioner Gordon). You mentioned yourself, LT, that this is the one area where MacT seems to be able to identify talent and sign. Plus they will have that year of RFA still to lower the cost of the deal they wish to extend him for. If the argument is that he would have had 2 RFA years in the contract if we only signed him to one year, that ignores the fact that this RFA year would have likely been factored as a “1 mil/season” type year into negotiations. But they already accomplished this. Then you sign him to 1 year deal RFA and trade him in the summer, not at the deadline.

    2) Scenario 2: He becomes a useful 2nd or 3rd line winger. Great, sign him as such or trade him if his demands are excessvie (see argument above re: relative ease in finding or developing this player type by most competent organizations).

    3) Scenario 3: Maybe, just maybe, 34 games is not enough to prove he has made it. He plays mediocre as a 3rd line C, and his value doesn’t spike. In this case, the deal was no harm, no foul.

    Last,

    I think the deal also shows some faith and some trust in the player. Signing him to a 2 year deal, in spite of its implications, suggests to Lander that he is being rewarded for a relatively short stretch of good play, and that the team wants him to be around past the summer of 2016. If I was him, that would give me a much better feeling about the team and its management than a 1 year contract, which potentially sends the message: “OK, you did good so far, but I want another year to figure out if this isn’t a mirage.”

  59. Ducey says:

    •It’s like back in the days when playing with Pääjärvi? the reporter then asks. “Haha, yeah. Like the old days with Mange. Yeah, but almost like that…[except Hall and Miller have talent]”

  60. Bruce McCurdy says:

    dangilitis: I really can’t see a 3rd line C asking for the stars and the moon

    Dave Bolland says hi.

  61. blainer says:

    John Chambers:
    So glad the Oilers got their asses handed to them in Cali. Things we’re going so well this naive poster suggested they had turned a corner …

    Bold moves are needed this summer.

    Mr Nicholson – tear down this wall of incompetent management!

    Last night was another night of proof about the goaltending. When your Goalie is letting in goals like that the team often throws in the towel. I still think the oilers are close. They need to stock all levels with Goalies. Get a top line starter..lets call him Anderson.. then get O’Connor or who ever to fight Scrivens for the backup. If Scrivens loses the fight put him on waivers and send him down to play with Brossoit. That gives us four solid Goalies if Scrivens recovers in the minors. That’s what I would do. MacT has to ditch FN as well as get Sobotka. I am still on the trading of Yak for the right return in order to make these changes happen.. Draft Provorov.. just kidding Pouzar..

  62. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Dave Bolland says hi.

    So does Nuge

  63. Pouzar says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Dave Bolland says hi.

    And Nuge.

  64. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: So does Nuge

    You sunnuva!!!!!!

  65. Traktor says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Dave Bolland says hi.

    Shawn horcoff says hi 🙂

  66. blainer says:

    DocFan:
    First – Development. Everyone can agree this is the weakest point of this organization. How many years did we not have a farm team?

    Second – Goalies. This team is where goalies are eaten alive. The Defence Corps is so weak in depth that they are hurting for the return of Ference – a 5/6/7 defensemen.How can you expect a goalie to develop confidence in a situation like this? Do you think it’s a coincidence that I established goalies with skill – dubnyk, fasth, Scrivens – have struggled here? Maybe an stablished goalie in their prime could survive. And with respect to options for the summer who can you sign that would help? maybe Neurvirth? But he fits the same description of the above 3. You bring him here with the same defense, same result. Trade options? Howard is 31 and signed for 6 million/yrx 4-5 years. Crawford? Is he worth the money? They will not get a Jones or Talbot. If I were MacT – keep Scrivens, sign a 2 yr deal with another potential starter and spend all your time/effort/money on defense.Protect the goalies a little better to let them develop (see point one) and they will get better. We need to flush Nikitin, out Ference in a role to succeed and sign atleast 1 if not 2 top 4 D. You want to get better now? That’s the only way. (IMHO).

    Three – Pray for lottery win. Suddenly all is fixed.

    The score would have been 12 – 2 if Ference had played against those Giants..

  67. Younger Oil says:

    Ribs: It is kind of interesting to look at the dominoes in place for 16-17, so far.

    http://stats.nhlnumbers.com/teams/EDM?year=2015

    Hendricks and Ference at the end of their deals, everyone else signed is a keeper. Then there’s a few kids at the end of their deals that should be just about ready to play if they are legit pros. I hope the pro scouts are evaluating the possible future UFA pool for that year. Lots of holes to fill!

    I might be totally wrong here, but are the contract expiry dates for Nurse and Chase correct on that website? It currently says that the 14-15 season counts as the first year on their contracts, but I was under the impression that it slides a year because they are currently playing in junior, and haven’t played past 9 games in the NHL.

  68. Bruce McCurdy says:

    I’m real happy with this deal & am not about to let you naysayers spoil it. A two-year bridge is appropriate for this player, he’ll still be a year away from UFA when it expires & it’ll give them what amounts to a two-year window to re-up him into his UFA years if both sides see fit.

    I like that they build a substantial raise into the second year, meaning that his qualifying offer is guaranteed to be higher if indeed it comes. That raises the whole negotiating platform two years from now, even as it keeps the AAV at reasonable levels in between times. To me that’s a good-faith detail.

    Not sure what option people would prefer: 1) a one-year extension and go through all this again next year, with much gnashing of teeth then if he signs a further one year extension? 2) a long-term extension now for $$$ that extends into his UFA years which don’t even start until 2018?

    Maybe if the ungrateful bugger would sign an 8-year pact at $900K per, that would be perfect.

    Fact is that players have rights too under the CBA, even as about 99% of the speculation in comments sections is from a team-oriented perspective. Pay the man what he deserves, allow him to develop, and when the time comes next time, pay him what he deserves again. By that time this player could well be wearing a letter and be considered a core part of the team, a status which for whatever reason Jeff Petry never achieved. But please don’t conflate the two.

  69. Lowetide says:

    dangilitis:
    I strongly agree with most of what you have said here, LT,

    Except…

    “Todd Nelson’s arrival and belief, married to Lander’s talents and determination, have us here.”

    I would add that a big piece missing here is opportunity. Eakins should have tried Lander earlier in such a role this season when there was nothing to lose…

    Well, Lander wasn’t shooting lights out in the fall. We have to remember that MacT did in fact give a one-way deal (code for ‘you’ve made it’) and the young man didn’t have a strong camp. I think your point is well made but would suggest we can’t know what would have happened if Eakins stayed as coach. It’s easy to say Lander would have stayed in OKC but we don’t know that to be true.

    So, it’s tough to know is what I’m saying.

  70. Ribs says:

    Younger Oil,

    I miss CapGeek 🙁

  71. frjohnk says:

    wordbird:
    frjohnk,

    Next season will be reeeeeallly interesting, goaltender-wise. Do the Oilers sign a proven vet (Anderson, Niemi) to run with Scrivens? If Matt O’Connor signs, is it he and Scrivens? O’Connor and a vet? Or a new batch of goalies altogether?

    Scrivens will be back, but other than that who knows. Even if they sign OConnor, they would put him in the AHL and probably bring someone else in.

  72. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    I’m real happy with this deal & am not about to let you naysayers spoil it. A two-year bridge is appropriate for this player, he’ll still be a year away from UFA when it expires & it’ll give them what amounts to a two-year window to re-up him into his UFA years if both sides see fit.

    I like that they build a substantial raise into the second year, meaning that his qualifying offer is guaranteed to be higher if indeed it comes. That raises the whole negotiating platform two years from now, even as it keeps the AAV at reasonable levels in between times. To me that’s a good-faith detail.

    Not sure what option people would prefer: 1) a one-year extension and go through all this again next year, with much gnashing of teeth then if he signs a further one year extension? 2) a long-term extension now for $$$ that extends into his UFA years which don’t even start until 2018?

    Maybe if the ungrateful bugger would sign an 8-year pact at $900K per, that would be perfect.

    Fact is that players have rights too under the CBA, even as about 99% of the speculation in comments sections is from a team-oriented perspective. Pay the man what he deserves, allow him to develop, and when the time comes next time, pay him what he deserves again. By that time this player could well be wearing a letter and be considered a core part of the team, a status which for whatever reason Jeff Petry never achieved. But please don’ conflate the two.

    lol. I like the signing too, Bruce, but am past trusting the Oilers and spend time searching for the negative. I hope one day to return to a place where confidence in management is restored.

    We wait.

  73. Ryan says:

    Hey GMoney, your blog seems to hold all comments waiting for moderation. 🙂

  74. Marc says:

    Woodguy:
    I’m happy Lander is signed and will be here for two years but it does set up that sticky wicket that Petry used to gain free agency in lowest term available. MacT has legitimate risk in this contract:

    With what they just went through with Petry you’d think they would have learned.

    Nope.

    1 years experience 9 years in a row.

    As the Oilers haven’t fielded a team with effective players at every position since 2006, I can understand the temptation to lock up every effective player long term as soon as they reveal themselves as such. It is not a winning strategy though.

    It requires the same kind of thinking that led to the Oilers passing on Parise in 2003, namely that the organisation’s strengths and weaknesses will be the same three years from now as they are today. It’s easy to look at the Oilers now and see a future in which Lander centers a scoring third line (unicorns!) plays on both special teams and puts up 40 or so pts a season. If you can get a player like that to give you UFA seasons for $2M-$3M per then you’ve got an extreme value contract.

    The thing is, there’s no way to be sure that that will actually be Lander’s role 2 or 3 years from now. If for example we win the draft lottery and get McDavid, or even if we get Strome or Marner, we could be running Nuge-Drai-new guy down the middle by merit. If Lander is playing 10 tough EV minutes a game centering the fourth line, getting no PP time and putting up 15 pts a season, then those same UFA seasons at $2M-$3M per are disastrous.

    Shorter term contracts do increase the risk that you’ll pay a premium as a young player evolves into a key role. But has to be balanced against the flexibility that such contracts give you if either player doesn’t evolve as expected, or his role changes.

    The only guys that should be locked up long term as soon as possible are the guys who are, or who are likely to be, consistent top line (ie. usually average 60+ pts a season) forwards or good top pairing (ie. average 20+ tough minutes and 30+ pts a season) top pairing D. Players with these skill sets are so rare that they’re worth locking up long term whenever you find one. Whatever else happen to the roster around them, they’ll be worth whatever you’re paying them.

    You have to be a lot more careful about handing out long term deals to guys who, whether because of a decline of skill or improvement in the players against whom he’s competing for ice time, ends up in a lesser role than they were in when they signed the contract.

  75. Lowetide says:

    Ryan:
    Hey GMoney, your blog seems to hold all comments waiting for moderation.:)

    Hmmm. THIS is a great idea!

  76. G Money says:

    Ryan:
    Hey GMoney, your blog seems to hold all comments waiting for moderation.

    Exceedingly strange, I don’t recall making that setting, and the first comment went through OK.

    I will figure out what is going on!

    In the meantime – I’ll rerun the stats with just a set of top 10 teams (maybe go back and count up in reverse order Conference finalists plus Pres Cup winners until I get to 10) and see how that looks.

  77. DocFan says:

    Adam Wu,

    The third point was my attempt at subtle sarcasm…..which surprisingly doesn’t come across well in type.

  78. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy,

    If a player doesn’t want to be here, there is little you can do to keep him here.If its Lander’s plan to get to Free Agency and leave as quick as possible that is his choice.

    You’re missing the point.

    Its about incentives.

    A player with 2 RFA years has incentive to sign a longer term deal to increase their salary immediately and lock down some serious guaranteed income.

    A player 1 year from UFA with arb rights doesn’t have that incentive.

    In fact there is significant incentive to go to arb where its guaranteed to be a 1 year deal and be UFA as soon as possible.

    It has nothing to do if a player likes to the team or not.

    Then we could start discussing combining RFA years with UFA years to lower long term cap hits too.

    There was no reason to do this 2 year deal.

    Its the worst option besides a 3 year deal for all his RFA years.

  79. dangilitis says:

    Traktor: Shawn horcoff says hi

    Really, guys?

    With respect to Bolland, this article’s title offers one possible suggestion as to why Bolland’s situation was unique:
    http://thehockeywriters.com/does-bolland-have-incriminating-photos-of-nhl-gms/

    Jokes aside, Bolland’s deal and asking price is clearly not the norm. And as I mentioned in scenario 2, you deal with that appropriately as a GM, you don’t let a 3rd line player take you to the cleaners. If the verbal around Lander’s character is true, that suggests to me a humble player who understands his role and wants to be a part of a winning team, not someone who wishes to cripple the team’s salary structure by suggesting he’s worth more than he is.

    With respect to Horcoff, he was being paid as a #1C after a 73 pt season, a 19 pt playoffs and key leadership up to game 7 of the SCF. It was a bad bet on a #1C, not an overpay for a #3C. If Lander churns out a 70+ pt season and scores a triple OT goal in the playoffs, then his value will have spiked for good reason. If he produces like a #1-2 C and continues his 2-way play, and presuming Draisaitl has become a top 2 C as well, then I would love to be wrong on the length and terms of this contract. Having 3 exceptional centers is a great problem to have, not a curse to the franchise…

  80. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    dangilitis,

    I don’t understand how this has anything to do with character. I would never question Toews’ character, but his new contract completely cripples the Blackhawks moving forward. I need to agree with Woodguy, and say that this 2 year contract is disappointing.

  81. Ryan says:

    Woodguy: You’re missing the point.

    Its about incentives.

    A player with 2 RFA years has incentive to sign a longer term deal to increase their salary immediately and lock down some serious guaranteed income.

    A player 1 year from UFA with arb rights doesn’t have that incentive.

    In fact there is significant incentive to go to arb where its guaranteed to be a 1 year deal and be UFA as soon as possible.

    It has nothing to do if a player likes to the team or not.

    Then we could start discussing combining RFA years with UFA years to lower long term cap hits too.

    There was no reason to do this 2 year deal.

    Its the worst option besides a 3 year deal for all his RFA years.

    Exactly. Mact as a GM is still learning how to skate. So far, he’s still skating like this:

    http://i.ytimg.com/vi/9CGd100y2Vg/mqdefault.jpg

  82. Marc says:

    Lowetide: There’s every chance they either lose the player in the lowest time served possible

    This isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

    The current CBA screws over two groups of players in particular – high scoring players on their ELC and good possession but relatively low scoring players in their RFA years. That’s where the best value contracts can be found.

    If you look at the best value Oilers contracts of the salary cap era, the best would be Jordan Eberle’s second season, where he was one of the highest scoring players in the league and got paid just over $1M. Second best would be pretty much every one of Petry’s contracts. In his four full seasons he was always one of the Oilers’ best D and they paid him $7.5M total for those years.

    The first group of players get back a lot of leverage at the end of their ELC though. Whilst the team theoretically holds all the cards, Subban and O’Reilly have demonstrated that keeping such players to below market value contracts just because they’re RFA is messy to do in practice.

    The second group have no such luck. We’ve never seen an offer sheet to this type of player. We’ve never seen one of them hold out and force his team into a better deal. And arbitration favours players with good counting numbers, not those with good advanced stats (in part because comparable players are also stuck on contracts that are extreme value for their team). They need to wait until their UFA years to secure fair market value or better for their services.

    If good possession but relatively low scoring players are extreme value in their RFA years and market value in their UFA years, then good cap management practice would be to hold such a player for their RFA years, but let them walk at UFA – ideally replacing them with another good possession but relatively low scoring player from the minors.

    This is the New England Patriots (spits) school of cap management and it is a proven winner in a hard cap league.

  83. dangilitis says:

    Lowetide: Well, Lander wasn’t shooting lights out in the fall. We have to remember that MacT did in fact give a one-way deal (code for ‘you’ve made it’) and the young man didn’t have a strong camp. I think your point is well made but would suggest we can’t know what would have happened if Eakins stayed as coach. It’s easy to say Lander would have stayed in OKC but we don’t know that to be true.

    I got caught on that earlier this year when ripping MacT for not getting a center. Lots of anecdotal info now that a deal was made (or could have been) for Roy and the coach nixed it.

    So, it’s tough to know is what I’m saying.

    That’s fair. I agree, but if we all believe Lander is only going uphill, then the only right play here would have been to sign him for 5-6 years. Who here would have the conviction to do this?

    I think your point about Lander’s past projection being tough to know is very true, as much as is his future projection. If Lander and the team hit the reset button on January 1, 2015 (and I hope they do), then this deal gives 200 games of information to review his future place on the team. If the role will be significant, then he deserves to be paid accordingly, and you offer the player a long-term deal incorporating the going rate for his future RFA and UFA years. There’s nothing wrong with that, unless the player and agent want to hold you over a barrel. Extra leverage helps in this final year, but leverage can always be manufactured by greedy/arrogant or shrewd (depending on your worldview) players and agents (see: Ryan O’Reilly), as either a pending UFA or RFA.

    If people want to use Petry as a similar example, I say don’t for several reasons:
    1) Petry, by all accounts (and I am as much a privy to internal information as the next guy on the street) would have had negotiations to sign in Edmonton, but there never seemed to be any serious resolution on the part of management to get it done. The play wasn’t made because Edmonton didn’t want to make the play, not because they waited until his last RFA year. Because they valued Schultz over Petry and started Brad “I can’t play D if my life depended on it” Hunt over Petry in his final RFA season. Deal can and do get made in players’ final RFA years, as long as there is good faith on both sides.
    2) Petry’s value as a 27 year old D-man who can play 20+ minutes a night is higher than a 26 yr old, 3rd line C. Supply vs Demand that we are all aware of.
    3) Many players whose contributions to a team are valued can be identified before a final RFA year. In Petry’s case, the problem was that many knew he was a player before the “bridge deal” taking him into this final year of RFA status was done. On the whole, his first ~100 game-body of work (which as a D, I would give more leeway for development) was far more impressive than Lander’s. And in a position/role that is harder to develop and substitute with younger, cheaper options. I would have favoured a 5 year contract in 2012 (3 RFA/2 UFA years) in his scenario. As mentioned, I can’t confidently say that this 30-40 game audition of Lander’s warrants a 5 year deal.

  84. Woodguy says:

    Traktor:
    There is also nothing guaranteeing Lander would sign a long term deal if Edmonton choose to sign him for 1 year instead of 2. The ball is always in the players court. If he wanted to go to free agency he could just as easy sign another 1 year deal and there he is.

    Players only have arbitration once.

    If he chooses to use it with 2 years of RFA left then he doesn’t have the hammer the next year.

    This is why many long term deals are done with 2 RFA years left.

  85. Dicky94 says:

    Woodguy,

    Would a five year deal around 3 mill per be fair. I think that would have been fair for both sides. Maybe not?

  86. Bank Shot says:

    I doubt Lander’s next contract is going to be a back breaker.

    One year would have been ideal but two years is alright.

    This player type doesn’t get big bucks in free agency. Boyd Gordon is basically the top end of the market at $3 million.

    The Oilers now need to ensure that they sign a stop gap veteran center for at least next season to ensure that they keep Lander where he belongs on a decent depth chart. 4C.

  87. RexLibris says:

    I think it speaks volumes about where this corner of the fan base is in terms of trust and expectations of the management group when we have serious concerns over the contract implications of an extension on an internally drafted-and-developed 3rd line C.

    The Oilers draft these kids and we love them.

    The kids show promise and we bask in it.

    Then we wait, teeth clenched, for the seemingly inevitable bad decision that sends those same players out the door.

    And so on ad infinitum.

  88. RexLibris says:

    Bank Shot:
    I doubt Lander’s next contract is going to be a back breaker.

    One year would have been ideal but two years is alright.

    This player type doesn’t get big bucks in free agency. Boyd Gordon is basically the top end of the market at $3 million.

    The Oilers now need to ensure that they sign a stop gap veteran center for at least next season to ensure that they keep Lander where he belongs on a decent depth chart. 4C.

    Gordon is that player.

    In some senses this *could* line up well if Lander progresses to the extent that he can play next year and allow the Oilers to move Gordon at the deadline to replace him with another internal candidate or late-season free-agent pickup a la Derek Roy.

    But that would require foresight, planning and a degree of organization.

  89. dangilitis says:

    HeatTreaterJoe:
    dangilitis,

    I don’t understand how this has anything to do with character.I would never question Toews’ character, but his new contract completely cripples the Blackhawks moving forward.I need to agree with Woodguy, and say that this 2 year contract is disappointing.

    So you are comparing Toews, an elite 1st line C, to Anton Lander?

    Those deals with Kane and Toews were made with the assumption that the salary cap long-term was going to be higher, a bet made by the team as much as the players. I don’t think Toews or Kane were hoping that their contracts would make their team unable to re-sign key players and become uncompetitive. I still don’t think that they have, unless the cap stalls or falls over the next decade. Nor have Ovechkin’s, Malkin’s, or Crosby’s contracts achieved this for their respective teams, for that matter. This is the type of player we are talking about, not a serviceable 3rd line C.

  90. dangilitis says:

    Dicky94:
    Woodguy,

    Would a five year deal around 3 mill per be fair. I think that would have been fair for both sides. Maybe not?

    We are talking about Anton Lander, right? OK, this is a great example here though of why it was a better move than you are giving credit for.

    5 years, 3 million per year, so 15 million is what you are suggesting. For a player with roughly 30 pts in 120 NHL games, who has shown half a season of turning the corner.

    But they got his next 2 years at 2 million total.

    – He still has one RFA year left that you could incorporate into a deal. Say that he wanted 4 million/year for 3 years, which is a huge overpay for a 3rd line center for 1 RFA and 2 UFA years, that is still 12 million + 2 for a total of 14 million for 5 years.

    – More realistically, if his play over the next 2 years is good-above average, then he will likely settle for ~3 mil/season on a long-term deal, say that 5 year, 3 million/season contract you mentioned. Great, if the play is warranted, then there is much less risk from this scenario because you have seen him good for 2.5 years rather than 0.5 years, or even 1.5 years, for that matter if you signed him to 1 year.

    To recap:
    The scenario you suggested, that’s 15 million/5 years, tons of risk, very difficult to get out of if he is not the player we think he may become.
    Scenario 2, where he “holds us over a barrel,” the team saves 1 million over 5 years but still has the option of trading him for player/pick and finding a cheaper version of him internally/externally. Virtually no risk, unless he is terrible and unusable as a player for the next 2 years, in which case he eats up 1 mil/season.
    Scenario 3, which is highly plausible, he is the player we think he is, you sign him at the going rate you quoted – then you now have Lander for the next 7 years at 17 million, or 2.4 million/season.

    Basically, the Oilers exchanged job security (for a player living year to year) and RFA years for a discount on his services. And he feels confident about his place in the team so that he can continue to develop.

  91. godot10 says:

    Woodguy: Players only have arbitration once.

    If he chooses to use it with 2 years of RFA left then he doesn’t have the hammer the next year.

    This is why many long term deals are done with 2 RFA years left.

    Players do NOT have arbitration only once. When the team (not the player) opts for arbitration, the team can take a player to arbitration only once. But a player can take a team to arbitration multiple times.

  92. Woodguy says:

    godot10: Players do NOT have arbitration only once. When the team (not the player) opts for arbitration, the team can take a player to arbitration only once.But a player can take a team to arbitration multiple times.

    Really?

    Did that change in the last CBA?

    I’m not at a PC so can’t check.

    That changes things.

  93. Woodguy says:

    Dicky94:
    Woodguy,

    Would a five year deal around 3 mill per be fair. I think that would have been fair for both sides. Maybe not?

    Way too much.

  94. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Except he had a job in the NHL all set up for him this season, and wasn’t able to hold on to it with such difficult competition as Will Acton and a rookie center. There is no guarantee he will be able to hold on to the position. You don’t lock up depth guys who have played only a decent 35 games long term. Thats a lot of risk for the team. See if he can take a step forward in the next two years. Its not like he is going to cost 5 mil a year in two years, not the player type to command big money

  95. leadfarmer says:

    Dicky94,

    What? So you overpay and you do it over a long term? Only way you give him a 5 year contract is if its at a million maybe up to 1.5 million a year.

  96. leadfarmer says:

    How bad have things gotten that we are worried about Anton Lander slighting us, not now, but 3 years from now?

    Its really time for a new management group.

  97. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    I think it speaks volumes about where this corner of the fan base is in terms of trust and expectations of the management group when we have serious concerns over the contract implications of an extension on an internally drafted-and-developed 3rd line C.

    The Oilers draft these kids and we love them.

    The kids show promise and we bask in it.

    Then we wait, teeth clenched, for the seemingly inevitable bad decision that sends those same players out the door.

    And so on ad infinitum.

    Well, THEY started it! 🙂

  98. ashley says:

    Angela Duckworth’s “grit” encapsulated in one tidy hockey interview.

    http://www.ted.com/talks/angela_lee_duckworth_the_key_to_success_grit?language=en

    What Bonsignore lacked, Lander has in spades.

  99. Dicky94 says:

    Just thought it was a fair price since we are giving 9 million over two years to a guy who shouldn’t be in the NHL.

  100. Kmart99 says:

    frjohnk: That was me.I showed that Chicago gave up just below league average shots when weighting for location.They were not far from Edmonton. But the numbers were ytd to the trade deadline.

    Crawford saves from the “arrow” 87.8%.From the perimeter 98.1%
    League average arrow save % 87.0%.Perimeter 96.7%.

    If just looking at shots from the high danger area
    Crawford save % is 82.9%
    League average is 82.5%

    I think there are better goalies when we use the value factor with his contract. (6.6 AAV)

    Oh yeah! plus i forgot he had a NMC which pretty much ends that conversation anyway.

  101. Kmart99 says:

    Can someone point me to an article that discusses how team defense affects sv%?

    I’m wondering: If Dubnyk, playing as he is right now, came back to play for the Oil would his sv% suffer? and how much? Or would he be able to keep up the good play despite playing behind a far inferior squad?

  102. Bruce McCurdy says:

    frjohnk: So does Nuge

    Haha, nice.

  103. Bruce McCurdy says:

    So, to summarize: emerging young centre signs two-year, cap-friendly extension which ends while his movement remains restricted.

    Conclusion: THOSE NUMBSKULLS111

  104. frjohnk says:

    Kmart99:
    Can someone point me to an article that discusses how team defense affects sv%?

    I’m wondering:If Dubnyk, playing as he is right now, came back to play for the Oil would his sv% suffer? and how much?Or would he be able to keep up the good play despite playing behind a far inferior squad?

    Funny you mention that, I actually have that idea and I am just waiting for the season to be done.

    I am gonna go through each team and look at what each goalie could shake loose. I will see what their save % was in different metrics and plug them in to what the oilers gave up in shot locations.

    But I might be able to crunch some numbers right now for Dubynyk as I already have them in a spread sheet.

    Hang on.

  105. Kmart99 says:

    frjohnk: on.
      (Qu

    woohoo!

    Is Minnesota the reason dubnyk’s sv% is up so much? Is Dubnyk the reason minnesota is winning so much?

  106. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    So, to summarize: emerging young centre signs two-year, cap-friendly extension which ends while his movement remains restricted.

    Conclusion: THOSE NUMBSKULLS111

    Not quite correct. I would say it’s more “Edmonton may have been better off getting a one year deal for Lander and then giving the new GM a chance to fix it next spring.”

  107. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    dangilitis,

    I don’t think I compared the quality of Toews the player with the quality of Lander the player. I said that Toews is respected for having a wonderful character, but at the end of his contract, he pushed to get as much money as possible (or he hired an agent that did so).

    If we’re expecting Lander to give us a discount on his next contract because of his character, we’re going to be disappointed. MacT should have signed a 1 year deal or taken a chance at a longer contract to avoid repeating the Petry situation.

  108. Ryan says:

    Kmart99:
    Can someone point me to an article that discusses how team defense affects sv%?

    I’m wondering:If Dubnyk, playing as he is right now, came back to play for the Oil would his sv% suffer? and how much?Or would he be able to keep up the good play despite playing behind a far inferior squad?

    This is a fairly old question. As far as I’m aware, no one has really found compelling evidence that supports team defense impacting goalie save percentage (consistently).

    There were some old articles at Hockey Prospectus that tried to find evidence of coaching strategies or coaches impact on goalie save percentages. The called it the Jacque Lemaire effect iirc. In one of their articles, the had interviewed someone from Minesota who claimed they had a system that worked. It’s a simple premise of trying to prevent shots from higher percentage scoring areas while allowing more shots from lower percentage areas.

    Sounds simple but as far as I’m aware, the old hockey prospectus article found a weak association and nothing new has really came out since supporting a stronger association. It doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, just that it’s difficult to prove.

  109. Ryan says:

    Ryan,

    Edit. I guess father John’s data could be used to estimate what Dubnyk’s sv % would be for the Oilers based on the shot location differences allowed by the Oilers vs Minesota. That’s part of the issue, but his data is buried in random threads here. 🙂

  110. Kmart99 says:

    Ryan: This is a fairly old question.As far as I’m aware, no one has really found compelling evidence that supports team defense impacting goalie save percentage (consistently).

    There were some old articles at Hockey Prospectus that tried to find evidence of coaching strategies or coaches impact on goalie save percentages.The called it the Jacque Lemaire effect iirc.In one of their articles, the had interviewed someone from Minesota who claimed they had a system that worked.It’s a simple premise of trying to prevent shots from higher percentage scoring areas while allowing more shots from lower percentage areas.

    Sounds simple but as far as I’m aware, the old hockey prospectus article found a weak association and nothing new has really came out since supporting a stronger association.It doesn’t mean it doesn’t exist, just that it’s difficult to prove.

    Yeah, i’ve read a number of those articles over the last 4 years or so, but i just can’t get behind the idea that a team who’s defense gives up 10 3 on 1’s per 30 shots a game will not affect Goalie A’s sv% anymore than team B who’s defense only gives up one 3 on 1 per 30 shots/game.

  111. Woodguy says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    So, to summarize: emerging young centre signs two-year, cap-friendly extension which ends while his movement remains restricted.

    Conclusion: THOSE NUMBSKULLS111

    You could say the same about Petry’s 2nd last contract.

    Numbskulls indeed.

  112. frjohnk says:

    Kmart99: woohoo!

    Is Minnesota the reason dubnyk’s sv% is up so much? Is Dubnyk the reason minnesota is winning so much?

    I think its a bit of both.

    Minnesota, by many metrics has the best team defence when looking at what they give up in regards to shot locations. But that did not help them at the start of the year. They had among the leagues worst goaltenders until Duby came. Duby was playing well with Arizona, who did not have great team defence this whole year.

    So if everything remained the same and we plug in what the oilers have given up in shot locations and what Duby’s save % is we see that Duby’s save % drops from .931 to .924.

  113. speeds says:

    Dicky94:
    Woodguy,

    Would a five year deal around 3 mill per be fair. I think that would have been fair for both sides. Maybe not?

    That probably would have been a bit too much money.

    The team and Lander agreed that he’s worth ~2.5M for the next 2 years. Who knows if either side was willing to sign for longer, and at what price, but for the sake of argument let’s say both sides would have been fine with 2.25 in his last RFA year, plus 6.5M for his first 2 UFA years.

    That would have resulted in a cap hit of 2.25M for 5 years

  114. Kmart99 says:

    Bottom line for me is this:

    If there are shot locations that have a higher likelihood of going in, then teams with systems that give up more highqualityshots/shot will have lower sv%s.

    I have so much trouble marrying those two ideas.

  115. Heinz 57 says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Fact is that players have rights too under the CBA, even as about 99% of the speculation in comments sections is from a team-oriented perspective. Pay the man what he deserves, allow him to develop, and when the time comes next time, pay him what he deserves again.

    Don’t go around saying anything this sensible while wearing sandals or riding an ass, or you might get a reputation that takes thousands of years to shake off.

    Late edit:

    Brian of Judea to Bruce of Whitenorth:

    Spare me, oh mighty Bruce, of my eternal ignominy!

    All though history these inadvertent messiahs of common sense are always looking to pass the olive bronco.

    ———

    In response to LT, minor criticisms doled out too freely tend to take the piss out of major criticisms.

    That man is pure evil! First he drowned all the puppy dogs, then he poured gasoline over all the scurvy rats and burned them alive!

    Needlessly torturing rats—rodents with an especially obvious vertebrate passport—really ought to be a black mark against your character (and not just if you clad yourself in a white lab coat in the name of medical progress), but it parses differently if one becomes careless about mixing used transmission oil with mildly unsatisfactory tap water.

    When a team goes long by picking a Yakupov, for three years it becomes harder to hawk homer term. Then when Yakupov goes supernova with a paltry supporting cast, was it worth it?

    The wrong kind of iodine pit can erase the best efforts of just about any management team out there.

    Reactors with large physical dimensions, e.g. the RBMK type, can develop significant nonuniformities of xenon concentration through the core. Control of such nonhomogeneously poisoned core, especially at low power, is a challenging problem. The Chernobyl disaster resulted from an attempt to recover the reactor from a nonuniformly poisoned state.

    Three new non- words for my spelling checker from that passage alone.

    That incompetent cretin! He sent the graphite control rods in the wrong direction (possibly by then any direction was the wrong direction) and he ran out of windshield washer fluid while driving to work this morning in a heavy downpour, as correctly predicted yesterday evening by Central Forecasting a whole half hour before the lazy ass headed to bed.

    I admit that the juxtaposition is a bit morbidly amusing, but mostly it just leaves me heaving le sigh.

  116. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: then giving the new GM a chance to fix it

    You’re resigned to this (no pun intended)?

    Do you think it happens when they finish 26th overall next season or sometime this summer?

  117. Kmart99 says:

    frjohnk:

    …if everything remained the same and we plug in what the oilers have given up in shot locations and what Duby’s save % is we see that Duby’s save % drops from .931 to .924.

    That’s what I was wondering. If you use this metric and make the prediction for goalies that change teams next season you could use that prediction (IF IT ENDS UP BEING ACCURATE) to support the idea that team defense affects sv%.

    Did you just use war-on-ice or do you have your own database/scripts?

    If i was you, id use this predictor and write an article predicting the change in goaltending sv%s for goalies that switch teams. Could be a great article if you’re numbers are close.

  118. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy: Numbskulls indeed.

    Maybe we should run the current management group through the concussion protocols just to see what happens.

  119. RexLibris says:

    Bob McKenzie retweeted
    Mark Edwards @MarkEdwardsHP · 3h 3 hours ago

    #OHLDraft Guide is done. Thanks to our scouts for putting in a huge number of hours in the rinks again this year. http://www.hockeyprospect.com/2015-ohl-draft-guide-is-now-available/

    And…

    Bob McKenzie retweeted
    Soo Greyhounds @OHLHoundPower · 19h 19 hours ago

    And that will do it!!! Hounds win game 4 with a score of 5-2 to wrap up the series. @ProuseChev shots on goal 40-25 in favour of Hounds.

  120. RexLibris says:

    Bob McKenzie @TSNBobMcKenzie · 19h 19 hours ago

    KGN swept by NB in OHL 1st round, which means Sam Bennett will be returning to pro hockey. CGY will recall, TBD where he’s assigned to.

  121. frjohnk says:

    To further my post from above.

    Duby has seen per 60 minutes which is split between Arizona and Minnesota ( and his save%)

    7.75 shots from the high danger area ( save % of 85%)
    7.68 shots from the medium danger area (save % of 93%)
    14.04 shots from the perimeter ( save % of 97%)

    Edm goalies have seen per 60 minutes ( and their save %)

    8.77 shots from the high danger area ( save % of 81.5%)
    8.22 shots from the medium danger area ( save % of 89.2%)
    12.53 shots from the perimeter (save % of 95%)

    League average save %

    High danger 82.9%
    Medium danger 91.5%
    Low danger 96.6%

  122. frjohnk says:

    Kmart99: Did you just use war-on-ice or do you have your own database/scripts?

    war on ice

    Kmart99: If i was you, id use this predictor and write an article predicting the change in goaltending sv%s for goalies that switch teams.

    Im gonna try

    Kmart99: Could be a great article if you’re numbers are close.

    Most likely my numbers will be all over the place. Why?

    GOALIES ARE F&*^KING VOODOO!

  123. Ducey says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    So, to summarize: emerging young centre signs two-year, cap-friendly extension which ends while his movement remains restricted.

    Conclusion: THOSE NUMBSKULLS111

    Yep. We are at the point where no matter what the Oilers do, it is wrong. Even if its right, it soon will be wrong.

    Sign O’Connor? They will just not develop him correctly, of if they do, then they will screw up his contract or usage or breakfast.

    I can’t wait for the Jultz and Yak contracts later this summer. The hubris around here will be something to behold.

  124. slambanna says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    So, to summarize: emerging young centre signs two-year, cap-friendly extension which ends while his movement remains restricted.

    Conclusion: THOSE NUMBSKULLS111

    I’m with you and Rex here. Imagine for a minute that at the end of Lander’s contract that the Oilers are a competitive team in the NHL. That players are not plotting to get out of town or get overly compensated for playing with one of the worst franchises in the league. Far-fetched I know.

    If it’s not trending that way after next year then perhaps Mact is jettisoned. Again far-fetched I know.

    At some point the dysfunctional management will be fixed. It may even happen during the MacT 2.0 era. MacT has to be learning some lessons all we can do at this point is pray that he’s coming to the correct conclusions.

    I have no problems with this contract and I’m hoping it could be the start of the “competent management era”.

    I’m glad to see Lander get paid. Especially knowing that he has already been using his very modest wealth to financially bail out his former team Timra (along with Zetterberg). Imagine again if he could develop this kind of loyalty to his current franchise.

    I realize we have to over analyze everything Oilers. But this contract is not among the top 100 Oiler related things I worry about.

  125. godot10 says:

    The Oilers are overpaying Gordon and Hendricks for bottom six roles, and NIkitin and Ference for bottom pairing roles.

    So a low number for Lander for the next two years is actually useful while the cap may not increase much. When the above four contracts are off the books in two years, there will be lots of room for a raise for Lander.

    It is not likely that Lander is going to score enough to break the bank, and if he does, that is the kind of problem one likes having.

    Two years gives Lander the person some security.

    Long contracts should be reserved for core players. Or tying up a young defensemen once you determine he is a player, like the Oilers did with Gilbert, the Predators with Josi, and like the Oilers should have done with Petry when they had the chance

  126. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: You’re resigned to this (no pun intended)?

    Do you think it happens when they finish 26th overall next season or sometime this summer?

    If the following things are true:

    1. MacT plans to run Nikitin, Ference, Schultz, Klefbom and Fayne next season
    2. They do what they always do and make no ‘3-for-1’ or ‘draft picks for actual NHL player’ trades
    3. They overpay for a middling goalie

    MacT is gone as GM. There is no room for another bottom finish. You cannot go to the market and ask for a significant price increase on tickets when the product is ghastly.

  127. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: If the following things are true:

    1. MacT plans to run Nikitin, Ference, Schultz, Klefbom and Fayne next season
    2. They do what they always do and make no ‘3-for-1′ or ‘draft picks for actual NHL player’ trades
    3. They overpay for a middling goalie

    MacT is gone as GM. There is no room for another bottom finish. You cannot go to the market and ask for a significant price increase on tickets when the product is ghastly.

    1a. Oilers will be picking Top 5 next year.

  128. Unicorns says:

    Lander moving forward I see as a safe bet to be a valuable player. He is a well rounded player that can play anywhere in the line up, has no holes in his game. He can score at evens the right way – goes to the areas that goals get scored from and this will mean that if the Oilers ever get to the playoffs he has a strong chance to still contribute. He is not like Gagner or players with major problems to overcome or who won’t put in the effort to do the dirty work, or guys that can’t play with reliability.

    This is important to how I see players, winning in the playoffs after all is the ultimate goal. Perimeter players and guys that don’t play well in traffic, players with lesser hockey IQ and sluggish skaters are the ones that I believe don’t do as well in playoffs as reg season when the whistles get pocketed.

    So angle with Lander would be to see this and go long term and cheap which I’m sure was a possibility – as WG said guaranteeing him millions would be pretty hard to resist for a guy in his place. Wrap up the kind of guy that a team has to have to get to the top, and use that cap saving elsewhere.

    Another approach which I have mentioned before is to use a bridge contract to get to the place where a player is still affordable and can be secured through his prime and long enough after to sell high. The real cap problem is when players go UFA in their prime and command the king’s ransom.

    As with the Bills strategy mentioned, a team should always be thinking in terms of a player’s career arc, assuming said team wants to stay competitive in the long term. They should be always be trying to identify the keepers early enough, signing them at reasonable deals strategically with a mind to their age and contract status.

    The idea is to ride the best of their careers and sell them high and on the downslope because of rep. So many teams line up for this. A smart team should take advantage. The bridge contract and signing them at around 24 through 32 I think is ideal. They shouldn’t be at peak value at around 24/25 yet for most players. Decide at 30 whether to extend them a couple of years or deal them with some term left and cash in.

    A team really should rarely retire a player despite how cold that is, the assets a good player can bring are essential to staying competitive when drafting later over time.

  129. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Ducey,

    You’ve raised a fascinating point… what is MacT to do with Jultz and Yak? It seems like a no-win scenario no matter what he does. Both of them are up this summer… do 2-year deals for both of them get them within 1 year of UFA? I’m not thrilled with the 2-year deal for Lander only because of how Petry turned out, but I’m certainly not upset or losing sleep over it.

    However, if we get both Jultz and Yak in contracts that repeat the Petry scenario again, surely that’s a bad situation, right?

  130. Pouzar says:

    Eric Rodgers ‏@ericrsports
    Musil recalled to the #Oilers from the #OKCBarons. Barons play Charlotte in a couple hours.

  131. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Lowetide,

    I don’t see MacT’s job in jeopardy until the Oilers end up bottom-5 in the league in the new arena.

  132. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar:
    Eric Rodgers ‏@ericrsports
    Musil recalled to the #Oilers from the #OKCBarons. Barons play Charlotte in a couple hours.

    What?

  133. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: What?

    Does he play goal?

  134. slambanna says:

    Pouzar,

    I believe you are a hockeystreams customer. If this is still true could you comment on the current quality of the service?

    I realize they are handicapped by the quality of the source A/V. Do the High quality sources come through without any obvious degradation. Have they been using Rogers cable feeds for OHL games?

    I’m eyeing up their playoff package.

    Thanks in advance for your response as well as your appreciative words in the past week.

  135. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Yeah its much better to push a guy into a long term contract that he doesn’t want to sign and have him request a trade because he wants to go somewhere else.

  136. leadfarmer says:

    Pouzar,

    April fools was a couple days ago.

    Just have him stay in front of the net in the d-zone the whole game so he doesn’t have to worry about keeping up with the puck

  137. Pouzar says:

    slambanna:
    Pouzar,

    I believe you are a hockeystreams customer.If this is still true could you comment on the current quality of the service?

    I realize they are handicapped by the quality of the source A/V.Do the High quality sources come through without any obvious degradation.Have they been using Rogers cable feeds for OHL games?

    I’m eyeing up their playoff package.

    Thanks in advance for your response as well as your appreciative words in the past week.

    You are correct that it does depend on the source. The streams from Sportsnet are breathtakingly awesome provided you have the requisite download speed and view it in 3200k stream. AHL streams are a noticeable downgrade, and the CHL streams are a downgrade from those. The bottom line is that you get more hockey in one reliable spot and you lose nothing in quality in comparison to Gamecenter for the NHL games since they are always HD anyway.

    Also, I am not 100% sure on whether they are using Rogers for CHL streams. I am guessing No since I haven’t seen one yet and have been watching a few OHL playoff games. I will keep an eye out.

  138. speeds says:

    HeatTreaterJoe:
    Ducey,

    You’ve raised a fascinating point… what is MacT to do with Jultz and Yak?It seems like a no-win scenario no matter what he does.Both of them are up this summer… do 2-year deals for both of them get them within 1 year of UFA?I’m not thrilled with the 2-year deal for Lander only because of how Petry turned out, but I’m certainly not upset or losing sleep over it.

    However, if we get both Jultz and Yak in contracts that repeat the Petry scenario again, surely that’s a bad situation, right?

    Depends how much hardball the Oilers might want to play. I think there is some chance a team signs Yakupov to an offer sheet, and not very much chance someone signs Schultz to an offer sheet. Schultz has arbitration rights, Yakupov does not.

    Wouldn’t surprise me if Schultz signs his QO, if he doesn’t (or doesn’t file for arb), he runs the risk that he and EDM get into a staring contest. There is no reason to think that they would based on how they handled his negotiations last summer, but once his QO expires EDM might feel they have leverage in negotiations.

  139. stevezie says:

    I don’t understand the complaints about the Musil callup. He can’t cost us meaningful games. Why not use this time to get all the close-up views we can?

  140. Pouzar says:

    stevezie:
    I don’t understand the complaints about the Musil callup. He can’t cost us meaningful games. Why not use this time to get all the close-up views we can?

    I was only joking. I love the call up and hope he plays the string out. I wanna see how his footspeed holds up in the NHL as I made a comment a few weeks ago that he doesn’t look slow to me in the “A”.

  141. AZOIL says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    So, to summarize: emerging young centre signs two-year, cap-friendly extension which ends while his movement remains restricted.

    Conclusion: THOSE NUMBSKULLS111

    Seriously, damned if they do, damned if they don’t!

    We need to find more important things to piss and moan over, this isn’t one of them.

  142. Lowetide says:

    stevezie:
    I don’t understand the complaints about the Musil callup. He can’t cost us meaningful games. Why not use this time to get all the close-up views we can?

    I’m not complaining, just surprised. Especially since I just talked about it! 🙂

    https://lowetide.ca/2015/04/01/oilers-at-ducks-g77-2014-15/

  143. SwedishPoster says:

    Ever since he was starting to make waves at 16 I’ve felt like Sammy Påhlsson was a good benchmark for Lander. Responsible defensive center who is strong on faceoffs and can make the simple play but lacks top end offense. The question for me always was if he’d become a poor mans Påhlsson or Påhlsson 2.0. The start of his NA career suggested the former though the last few weeks and some of the offensive plays he’s made has me hoping for the latter. He also adds natural leadership in a way Sammy never did. Påhlsson was stronger in his special areas defense and dotwork but he also was older than Lander is now when he found his level and less multidimensional.

    Also I’m now a subheading inside a Lowetide blogpost. I need to go call my grandmother. Much pride.

  144. Marc says:

    So.

    A week or so ago someone posted a dream scenario in which Pittsburgh missed the playoffs and then won the draft lottery. At the time I thought it was unlikely, if not impossible for Pittsburgh to miss the playoffs. After last night’s games though, things have changed to the point where it’s possible, if not probable, that PIttsburgh will be out of a playoff position by Wednesday evening.

    With Washington, Ottawa and Boston all winning last night, and Pittsburgh losing to Philly the other day, Washington bumped Pittsburgh into the first wildcard spot in the East.

    Starting tomorrow both Pittsburgh and Ottawa play three games in four nights, including back to back games this weekend.

    Ottawa (7-2-1 over their last 10 games) plays:
    Washington at home on Saturday
    @ Toronto on Sunday
    Pittsburgh at home on Tuesday

    Pittsburgh (3-6-1 over their last 10 games) plays:
    @ Columbus (9-1-0 over their last 10 games) on Saturday
    @ Philly (3-3-4 over their last 10 games, but biggest local rival) on Sunday
    @ Ottawa (7-2-1 over their last 10 games) on Tuesday

    Pittsburgh is also in a perfect storm of injuries and cap problems. In their loss to Philly they dressed only 5 D and Malkin didn’t play. Malkin is due to be out for the Columbus game, which enabled them to bring up Taylor Chorney on an emergency recall, but only because Malkin is out. Basically for these three games, unless Letang or one of their other injured D get healthy, they either be without Malkin or dressing only 5 D.

    Ottawa should be favoured to win all three of their games (except maybe Washington). Pittsburgh’s opponents should be favoured to win all three of theirs.

    Boston plays Toronto at home tomorrow and at Washington on Wednesday

    Should that Ottawa win all of their games, Pittsburgh lose their three and Boston beat Toronto at home tomorrow and get at least a point out of the Washington game, the East wild card standings on Wednesday evening would be:
    BOS – 96/97 pts
    OTT – 96 pts
    PIT – 95 pts and currently out of the playoffs.

    Dare to dream….

  145. Factotum says:

    What I like most about Lander is this: If you listen to him being interviewed after a game in which he posted some boxcars, whether a win or a loss – it’s clear that he thinks being complimented for personal stats is bullshit. All that matters to him is winning the games. And when the team loses, he’s pissed off. Every time.

    There’s a reason why his leadership has been praised at every level. I’m cheering like hell for him.

  146. AZOIL says:

    Marc:
    So.

    A week or so ago someone posted a dream scenario in which Pittsburgh missed the playoffs and then won the draft lottery.At the time I thought it was unlikely, if not impossible for Pittsburgh to miss the playoffs. After last night’s games though, things have changed to the point where it’s possible, if not probable, that PIttsburgh will be out of a playoff position by Wednesday evening.

    With Washington, Ottawa and Boston all winning last night, and Pittsburgh losing to Philly the other day, Washington bumped Pittsburgh into the first wildcard spot in the East.

    Starting tomorrow both Pittsburgh and Ottawa play three games in four nights, including back to back games this weekend.

    Ottawa (7-2-1 over their last 10 games) plays:
    Washington at home on Saturday
    @ Toronto on Sunday
    Pittsburgh at home on Tuesday

    Pittsburgh (3-6-1 over their last 10 games) plays:
    @ Columbus (9-1-0 over their last 10 games) on Saturday
    @ Philly (3-3-4 over their last 10 games, but biggest local rival) on Sunday
    @ Ottawa (7-2-1 over their last 10 games) on Tuesday

    Pittsburgh is also in a perfect storm of injuries and cap problems. In their loss to Philly they dressed only 5 D and Malkin didn’t play. Malkin is due to be out for the Columbus game, which enabled them to bring up Taylor Chorney on an emergency recall, but only because Malkin is out. Basically for these three games, unless Letang or one of their other injured D get healthy, they either be without Malkin or dressing only 5 D.

    Ottawa should be favoured to win all three of their games (except maybe Washington). Pittsburgh’s opponents should be favoured to win all three of theirs.

    Boston plays Toronto at home tomorrow and at Washington on Wednesday

    Should that Ottawa win all of their games, Pittsburgh lose their three and Boston beat Toronto at home tomorrow and get at least a point out of the Washington game, the East wild card standings on Wednesday evening would be:
    BOS – 96/97 pts
    OTT – 96 pts
    PIT – 95 pts and currently out of the playoffs.

    Dare to dream….

    That would make all these years of wandering in the desert well worth it! McDavid at #1 and then whoever is left of Hanfin/Marner/Strome at our #4! Boom!

  147. jake70 says:

    Baseball in Montreal tonight….woohoo.

  148. Marc says:

    Jonathan Willis ‏@JonathanWillis 3m3 minutes ago

    LRT: Nikita Nikitin played his last shift 5:32 before the end of Friday’s game with LA. He’s been hurt off and on all year.

    I’ve been kind of hoping that we’re able to end Calgary’s playoff hopes by beating them tomorrow.

    If our D pairings tomorrow are Klefbom-Schultz, Marincin-Musil, Davidson-Aulie, I’m going to go out on a limb and say I’m likely to be disappointed.

  149. Gordies Elbow says:

    Not shocked on the Musil recall. He’s developed really well this year, and the coaches (both Nelson and Fleming) love him. Here’s a quote from Fleming that I posted in the Ducks GDT:

    “Moose has been really good. Here’s a kid that just does everything that it takes to be a pro. He works hard at the things he needs to work on. He’s always looking for information to make himself better,” said Fleming. “His play has been really good here in the last month. If you really want to see one guy make it, I think Dave is the guy because he’s really giving himself a chance to play at the next level and is doing all the things necessary to give himself a chance.”

    He breaks the cycle well, and plays a heavy game for a defender. Perhaps, like Lander, he’s put in the work to become a better skater, and we’re getting to see the results?

  150. Dicky94 says:

    Nice to see Musil get a shot. Hopefully he makes “Johnny Hockey” cry tomorrow night.

  151. leadfarmer says:

    Marc,

    Curious that you left out that Pittsburgh has a game left against Buffalo. That combined with their current lead is enough for a wild card spot.

  152. OilClog says:

    HeatTreaterJoe,

    im guessing if you ask either Bucky or Moose you’ll get your answer.

  153. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy,

    Yeah its much better to push a guy into a long term contract that he doesn’t want to sign and have him request a trade because he wants to go somewhere else.

    Oh get bent.

    This has nothing to do with players not wanting to sign with their clubs.

    Go peddle that bullshit somewhere else.

  154. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy,

    Except he had a job in the NHL all set up for him this season, and wasn’t able to hold on to it with such difficult competition as Will Acton and a rookie center.There is no guarantee he will be able to hold on tothe position.You don’t lock up depth guys who have played only a decent 35 games long term.Thats a lot of risk for the team.See if he can take a step forward in the next two years.Its not like he is going to cost 5 mil a year in two years, not the player type to command big money

    *WHHOOOOOSHHHH*

    That’s my point flying way over your head.

  155. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    What’s your problem. Go be a jerk on your own blog

  156. GCW_69 says:

    HiddenDarts:
    GCW_69, VanOil:,

    Er, New Jersey won’t give up on Larsson. They just got through the rough parts. Why trade him for a winger playing defense when the rewards are finally starting to show?

    Yes, unless you are offering Leon or a better forward Larsson isn’t going anywhere. That said, Lou has the depth in young defenders to trade Larsson and he needs top flight young forwards.

  157. GCW_69 says:

    Woodguy: You’re missing the point.

    Its about incentives.

    A player with 2 RFA years has incentive to sign a longer term deal to increase their salary immediately and lock down some serious guaranteed income.

    A player 1 year from UFA with arb rights doesn’t have that incentive.

    In fact there is significant incentive to go to arb where its guaranteed to be a 1 year deal and be UFA as soon as possible.

    It has nothing to do if a player likes to the team or not.

    Then we could start discussing combining RFA years with UFA years to lower long term cap hits too.

    There was no reason to do this 2 year deal.

    Its the worst option besides a 3 year deal for all his RFA years.

    As long as they approach Lander next summer rather than waiting, this risk can be mitigated. You can go to the player with a long term offer and say, “we want you here long term. Here is a fair offer. You could wait another two years and see if you can do better, but a lot can happen in two years. Worst case, you could get injured and get nothing. Sign now and you have financial security for life.”

    I don’t think we should judge this deal until we see what management does next summer. If they don’t extend him then, you are right, they totally blew it. But I think if they want to, they can. And they should.

    (two MacT defends in the same thread. Have we gone into bizarro world?)

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