HERE COMES SUMMER!

After last night’s news, the summer’s procurement possibilities may be stronger and the Edmonton Oilers may be prepared to aim higher. Along with stunning youth in the CHL (McDavid, Nurse, Draisaitl), Edmonton has equally stunning holes on the big club.

We know the list of needs (it is below) but the additions of the No. 1 overall pick added to (it looks like) Peter Chiarelli suggests a brand new day. One suspects that Bob Nicholson will make a splash when Chiarelli is announced (although it’s unlikely there will be blood in the streets it’s a good bet a few people are released from employment) and the summer acquisitions are likely to be more famous than the names (Neuvirth, etc) we had discussed earlier in the spring. Fair?

MACT’S SUMMER LIST

  1. A No.1 goaltender. (Antti Niemi)
  2. A veteran top-pairing defenseman (Vlasic)
  3. A replacement for Jeff Petry.
  4. A 2line C with experience and the ability to play a two-way game. (Carl Soderberg)

I think we need to re-visit the summer list, or at least the answers to the list.

  • Goal: We’ve listed Neuvirth for some time, but maybe there’s a better name? Is there a goalie (please not Talbot, Sather will want everything but McDavid) we can look at? Jonathan Bernier? Maybe the Oilers should acquire Bernier, sign Neuvirth and free agent O’Connor and run those three (along with Brossoit) in the NHL/AHL? I’m not fond of Crawford or Howard (too much money and too much asset cost). I do think that the chances that Todd McLellan comes here are greater now, and suspect Antti Niemi is the guy.
  • Defense: Discussions have surrounded Andrej Sekera but what if we aimed higher? Vlasic? Who is the best defensemen Edmonton could acquire for Martin Marincin and the Penguins pick? That should be a helluva player.

MACT’S FUTURE

  • MacT: “I said at the end of the year, before we were fortunate enough to win the lottery, it’d be a very important developmental year for us. I still believe that. We arguably have the three best players in the CHL right now and they’re going to be flowing into the program, certainly Leon. All three will. Next year, Leon is done with his junior eligibility, as is Darnell. The player we pick will be on our team next year.” Source

If MacT is doing media avails he’s going to be here in the fall, but I do believe the team will change their immediate plans with Chiarelli part of the group. That means the first-round pick, Marincin and maybe someone like Leon Draisaitl could he headed out of town. I can’t see how Chiarelli, with his track record, comes in and marginally improves the roster. Nicholson too, they aren’t coming in to make small improvements this summer, not when they’re coming in this hot. We’re going to see some major movement this summer and it is going to cost prospects. Here is a look at Chiarelli’s track record from Stanley Cup of Chowder.

SCOUTS FUTURE

  • Bill Simmons: The Bruins also announced they have fired amateur scouts Mike Chiarelli (Peter’s brother) and Denis Leblanc and European head scout Jukka Holtari. Mike Chiarelli had been with the team for seven seasons and was responsible for scouting in Ontario. Leblanc and Holtari had been with the team for eight seasons. Source

The easiest move for an incoming management group is to fire the scouts. They don’t make a million bucks and with Toronto firing a bunch (plus Chiarelli’s brother being let go) it’ll be a late summer task to get that straightened away.

TODD MCLELLAN

I think he’s the next step. This move isn’t likely to come soon but the lottery win married to some urgency in getting things rolling tells me that the Oilers are bringing in a new coach. If they’re bringing in McLellan, another ‘very important development’ year is going to be replaced by ‘we had to trade Martin, that pick and Leon to address need and we’re delighted to have Brent, Antti and Carl here to help the kids’ and that means they’re turning north.

THIS is going to be a very dangerous summer, but it’s also going to be incredibly exciting. Later today: Chiarelli’s past and what it might tell us.

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

10 this morning, TSN1260:

  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon. We’ll talk lottery, Chiarelli, etc.
  • Sarah Connors, Stanley Cup of Chowder. Chiarelli.
  • Travis Yost, TSN. Oilers, Senators.
  • Kent Wilson, Flames Nation. Looking at the Flames-Canucks.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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307 Responses to "HERE COMES SUMMER!"

« Older Comments
  1. judgedrude says:

    Lowetide:
    Let’s relax a little, men. I don’t think any of us are about to be fired by the Oilers.

    Fixed that for you LT.

  2. Yeti says:

    fifthcartel: Apparently there’s speculation the Oilers may have signed Eetu Laurikainen out of Europe.

    If so we should celebrate. Eetu Laurikainen will be the most wonderfully named goalie that the Oilers have enjoyed since Jussi was here back in 06/07.

  3. thejonrmcleod says:

    Pouzar:
    I’ll try this again…..

    Who is watching the Erie vs SSM game tonight?

    Father John? G? WG? LT? Guy who changes his name every long weekend?

    How would one go about watching that game online?

  4. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Yeti: If so we should celebrate. Eetu Laurikainen will be the most wonderfully named goalie that the Oilers have enjoyed since Jussi was here back in 06/07.

    Can you imagine the Principe Pun when Scrivens gets yanked in a game and Eetu takes his place?

  5. Ca$h-Money! says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Yeah, it could go that way I guess but Miller has a no trade clause limited to only 5 teams he would agree to a trade.

    He could easily kibosh any deal.

    Fair enough, though for a goalie the prospect of sitting on the bench for 2 years might be worse than the prospect of moving to Edmonton, especially if Edmonton has McDavid & said goalie’s only other experience is Buffalo.

  6. Pouzar says:

    thejonrmcleod: How would one go about watching that game online?

    hockeystreams.com is how I do it

  7. LoDog says:

    Wasn’t the Kessel trade basically an unmatched offer sheet in sheep’s clothing?

    I think that would be the biggest thing to remember.

  8. Kmart99 says:

    Nostradumbass: This team does not not become a playoff team until they have an effective 25 minute Dman

    You trade Leon for Josi in a heartbeat

    Maybe… But I’m not 100% sure that Josi is a more valuable dman compared to Leon as a 2-3C.

    I think if the Oilers are going to get a topbdman for value, they have to look at cap troubled teams, and top dmen who’s personalities arent fitting in, despite a high level of ability.

    Under valued/overpaid players cost the least via trade.

    I’d like to think Phaneuf, Vlasic, Sekera, Ehrhoff, Petry are all targets. Oilers need two of them.

    Players who are developing well and fitting in on their teams well ( ala Josi and S Jones) aren’t going anywhere. At least not for a fair price. So forget them. Find the undervalued guy. The Pouliot of Dmen.

  9. 5-14-6-1 says:

    LoDog: unmatched offer sheet

    Burkie, serve up an offer sheet?

  10. wheatnoil says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Can you imagine the Principe Pun when Scrivens gets yanked in a game and Eetu takes his place?

    Would his nickname be EetuD2 or R2Eetu?

  11. fifthcartel says:

    Yeti: If so we should celebrate. Eetu Laurikainen will be the most wonderfully named goalie that the Oilers have enjoyed since Jussi was here back in 06/07.

    Agreed! He has an all-star caliber name.

  12. Lowetide says:

    LoDog:
    Wasn’t the Kessel trade basically an unmatched offer sheet in sheep’s clothing?

    I think that would be the biggest thing to remember.

    It was, iirc, an overpay from an OS just so Burke wouldn’t have to deal with it in that way.

  13. Bag of Pucks says:

    5-14-6-1: Take the high road.

    The exact placement of those picks in the draft was unknown at the time of the trade.

    This seems to be the issue.

    When I say, Chiarelli wins the Kessel trade, I’m making that judgement based on the ‘quantitative’ value of the assets that changed hands as a result of that transaction.

    Whether or not Chiarelli was lucky in realizing that return is immaterial imho to the measurement of the assets exchanged and thus the empirical evaluation of that trade.

    The disconnect here seems to be you’re keen to assign an additional ‘qualitative’ evaluation of the trade (yeah, but Chiarelli didn’t know….etc.) , which strives to lessen the quantitative measurement to skew the argument in your favour.

    No one gets a crystal ball. No one sees the future. One GM drafts a Patrik Stefan, another a Mike Modano. Sure, there’s always mitigating factors, random chance, luck, etc. that impacts these outcomes, but in my experience, the final quantitative analysis is the final arbiter of performance.

    Gretzky may have been ‘lucky’ to score 92 goals, doesn’t change the fact he did.

    At the end of the day, Chiarelli walks away from the poker table with Seguin, Hamilton and Jared Knight. Burkie leaves the table with Kessel. What each of them may or may not have known about the other’s hole cards is immaterial. All that matters is the size of their chip stacks. And people claiming that Chiarelli didn’t win the trade are the same type of people that moan at the poker table saying the guy that beat them got lucky on the river.

  14. Dashingsilverfox says:

    wheatnoil: Would his nickname be EetuD2 or R2Eetu?

    Brute

  15. 5-14-6-1 says:

    I wonder what they chanted when Loob played…


    The popular “shirts off for Kiprusoff” chant from 2004 is back as “show your cans for Monahan” a phrase encouraging women to pop tops as a game-day celebration.

    http://metronews.ca/news/calgary/1348207/women-asking-flames-fans-to-can-it-when-it-comes-to-street-harassment/

    But seriously, when and where did public nudity get associated with playoff hockey?

  16. Unicorns says:

    Younger Oil:
    Two of the things Edmonton fans have been wanting for years around here:

    1. A quality non first round pick that has been developed in the system, and can be had on a good contract.

    2. A young top 6 forward with size.

    The two most requested players to trade in the past week around here:

    1. Marincin

    2. Draisaitl

    I know we need a top 2 Dman, but Jesus Christ people.

    “We really need a top pairing defender and depth on the blue line, so let’s trade our second best defender to get one”.

    “I know we’ve been saying for years how badly we need a big, strong C in order to compete in the Western Conference, so let’s trade our best chance at one while he is on his ELC”.

    Marincin and Draisaitl are probably the two stupidest choices for players we could trade right now. They have less trade value than many other players in our lineup who fill the same role, and their value will likely skyrocket in the next two seasons.

    Draft and develop. Get good players and keep good players.Patience. We’ve been preaching that for years and years, and in my opinion there is no way an 18 year old Connor McDavid should change that. In two or three years, then we can talk. But throwing everything away that we have had to suffer for 9 years to get because of a single 18 year old, no matter how good, is just ridiculous.

    Next year is the time to really improve this team. The value and ability of our players and prospects will keep going up, and Nikitin, Purcell, and Gordon coming off the books will give us the cap space to really make a difference in the lineup. In all likelihood, the 2015-16 Oilers are still not a playoff team. And if they are, it is likely because we gave up a significant part of the future.

    I don’t know about everyone else around here, but I want to see the Oilers in the playoffs every single year for the foreseeable future. To be able to do this in the NHL, you need those quality players on ELC, and value contracts from players you have developed.

    This.

    And trade from strength to weakness, winger to defense.

    Keep the first rounders to keep talent coming in to the system that has much higher odds to keep those ELC’s rolling. Trade seconds and down.

    There should only be a few keepers in the core, and in complete cold blood as soon as someone is being pushed hard by a younger player move them for more picks.

    This is the way to sustain contention, it’s the teams hanging onto to every good player past their prime that have to walk through the desert, and teams that lose value in trades like the Oilers have over the years.

  17. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Bag of Pucks: This seems to be the issue.

    When I say, Chiarelli wins the Kessel trade, I’m making that judgement based on the ‘quantitative’ value of the assets that changed hands as a result of that transaction.

    Whether or not Chiarelli was lucky in realizing that return is immaterial imho to the measurement of the assets exchanged and thus the empirical evaluation of that trade.

    The disconnect here seems to be you’re keen to assign an additional ‘qualitative’ evaluation of the trade (yeah, but Chiarelli didn’t know….etc.) , which strives to lessen the quantitative measurement to skew the argument in your favour.

    No one gets a crystal ball. No one sees the future. One GM drafts a Patrik Stefan, another a Mike Modano. Sure, there’s always mitigating factors, random chance, luck, etc. that impacts these outcomes, but in my experience, the final quantitative analysis is the final arbiter of performance.

    Gretzky may have been ‘lucky’ to score 92 goals, doesn’t change the fact he did.

    At the end of the day, Chiarelli walks away from the poker table with Seguin, Hamilton and Jared Knight. Burkie leaves the table with Kessel. What each of them may or may not have known about the other’s hole cards is immaterial. All that matters is the size of their chip stacks. And people claiming that Chiarelli didn’t win the trade are the same type of people that moan at the poker table cos the guy that beat them got lucky on the river.

    Burke traded 3 picks for a perennial 30+ goal scorer.

    He gambled, and lost, that Kessel would make the Leafs a playoff team.

    If Burke had been right, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

    Burke would have won the trade hands down.

    Keeping your poker analogy going, Burke was dealt an ace and went all in before the flop.

    Chiarelli got very lucky…Burke not so much.

  18. Bag of Pucks says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Burke traded 3 picks for a perennial 30+ goal scorer.

    He gambled, and lost, that Kessel would make the Leafs a playoff team.

    If Burke had been right, we wouldn’t be having this conversation.

    Burke would have won the trade hands down.

    Keeping your poker analogy going, Burke was dealt an ace and went all in before the flop.

    Chiarelli got very lucky…Burke not so much.

    Could be.

    Again, I’m not terribly interested in a circumstantial evaluation of the factors and decisions that motivated the trade as they’re not pertinent to assessing the value of the final assets realized.

    I made a statement that Chiarelli won the trade hands down, and I think a dispassionate quantitative assessment of the assets realized strongly supports that statement.

  19. Dashingsilverfox says:

    In hindsight…no doubt.

    At the time of the trade, it was risky bet for Boston too.

  20. Unicorns says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    “The Oilers, it can be argued, are actually at least a year behind the Flames in the rebuilding process.”

    Building a quanset is much quicker and far cheaper than building the highest and shiniest building in the world. Self cleaning too.

  21. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Speaking of Kessel…there’s speculation he could be traded to NJ for the 6th overall pick.

    http://www.nj.com/devils/index.ssf/2015/04/will_devils_trade_the_6th_overall_draft_pick_for_p.html

  22. Unicorns says:

    As for Kessel, maybe Chia realized he was difficult and cut bait before the crazy. Win. Or maybe he got dumbass lucky.

  23. Disciple of McJesus says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    In hindsight…no doubt.

    At the time of the trade, it was risky bet for Boston too.

    This is the crux of the discussion. But in terms of relevance to the 2015 Oilers who are considering hiring PC, all that matters is the “time of the trade.” The bet was better from Burke’s end, playoffs or not. The value of Kessel outweighed the probabilistic value of the picks.

  24. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Unicorns:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    “The Oilers, it can be argued, are actually at least a year behind the Flames in the rebuilding process.”

    Building a quanset is much quicker and far cheaper than building the highest and shiniest building in the world. Self cleaning too.

    That shiny building still has a cockeyed architect and no foundation.

  25. Truth says:

    IIRC, Kessel was being traded because he wanted more money than what Boston could afford. If Burke played by the rules and offered Kessel an offer sheet totaling what he did end up signing Kessel for ($5.4M/yr AAV), the leafs would have had to forfeit a 1st round pick, a 2nd round pick, and a 3rd round pick as compensation. Burke is infamous for being against offer sheets so he overpaid to get Kessel’s rights. Who knows if that eventually gave the Leafs an advantage in signing Kessel to a lower AAV or not.

    I’ve always thought that the Kaberle trade was Chiarelli and Burke squaring up on the deal.

  26. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Disciple of McJesus: This is the crux of the discussion. But in terms of relevance to the 2015 Oilers who are considering hiring PC, all that matters is the “time of the trade.” The bet was better from Burke’s end, playoffs or not. The value of Kessel outweighed the probabilistic value of the picks.

    Agree although you have to remember Kessel was unlikely to re-sign in Boston which changes the dynamic.

  27. 5-14-6-1 says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    In hindsight…no doubt.

    At the time of the trade, it was risky bet for Boston too.

    Agreed.

  28. RexLibris says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    The Flames have Hiller, Ortio and Gillies in net.

    That is good depth, but I’m not ready to crown it as “set”.

    They have Hiller for another year, then they need to decide on Ortio, who was good at times but also struggled at times, and recently-signed Gillies.

    Gillies is intriguing because he was exceptional in the NCAA, but now that he is turning pro he’ll need to prove himself at a different level.

    If they were to keep Hiller for another two years beyond next, I’d say they were intelligently hedging their bets.

    We’ll have to see how Ortio and Gillies progress next season.

    The Flames defence is outstanding this year and could be next year as well. But Giordano is in the back nine of his career now, which leaves only Brodie as a young, solid blueliner. Wideman and Russell have done well.

    They need D prospects badly and my guess is they use their cap space and some of their three 2nd round picks to procure a veteran D from a cap-strapped team this summer to bolster that D-corps.

    It could improve next season, depending on what they do.

    Now, have they completed a rebuild, or retooled on the fly?

    Time will tell.

  29. GCW_69 says:

    oilfan9911:
    GCW_69,

    You’re not just trading LD, you’re trading this depth chart:
    RNH
    McJesus
    Dr. Drai

    In as early as 2-3 years, this could very easily be the best centre depth chart in the league. If the Oilers are going to give that up by trading LD (and remember, they’re not going to be able to draft a new one) it has to be for someone who has an immediate impact.

    They absolutely CANNOT gamble that Jones will develop in a straight line in a rapid fashion to be a true #1, cannot gamble that Larson truly has figured it out, cannotgamble that Josi is a true difference maker.

    If you’re going to cash LD, think of Victor Hedman or better, and I doubt Tampa parts with him.

    It could be, or Leon could be a bust. He isn’t a proven NHLer right now. We think he will be good, but we don’t know for sure.

    Any trade involves risk. Larsson finished the season playing top pairing in new Jersey. Jones is more than half way to the 300 game mark where defenders seem to get it. Jodi is already there.

    But that’s not the point. The point is Leon should be available if the player coming back the other way makes the team better. Same applies for Nuge, Hall, Eberle and the rest. Are you saying you wouldn’t trade Hall for Hedman if the deal was on the table? Nuge for Hedman?

    All options should be explored. Free agency is expensive and the Oilers need to weigh the implications of using free agency to close gaps vs trades.

  30. Yeti says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Can you imagine the Principe Pun when Scrivens gets yanked in a game and Eetu takes his place?

    For my own mental health (or what remains of it), I try not to think of Gene Principe puns under any circumstances. But I do know exactly what you mean. 🙂

  31. malinpaul says:

    I don’t think Soderberg, Niemmi, Vlasic, and one extra defenceman are enough.

    I’d want at least one more quality experienced true NHL defenceman (3 total), and a couple NHL forwards.

  32. Bag of Pucks says:

    Disciple of McJesus: This is the crux of the discussion. But in terms of relevance to the 2015 Oilers who are considering hiring PC, all that matters is the “time of the trade.”

    Because we want to hire a GM based on his initial intentions, not his final results?

    If that’s the case, we should retain MacT. I think he always ‘intends’ to do the right thing.

    In this model whereby we assess GMs based on the theoretical value of their transactions and not the actual returns, do we also get to pay them a theoretical salary? Only if they win a theoretical Cup?

  33. leadfarmer says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Gambled? He should have looked at his roster and said there is no way they are making the playoffs. He screwed over the franchise for years. Now they are looking at trading him for a 6th overall pick in a draft that is 5 high. That is Tambellini level of a declining asset management after giving up and Allstar center, a top pairing defenseman and a second round pick for. If Burke didn’t make that trade the Leafs would not be needing to blow up that team right now.

  34. Disciple of McJesus says:

    leadfarmer:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    Gambled?He should have looked at his roster and said there is no way they are making the playoffs.He screwed over the franchise for years.Now they are looking at trading him for a 6th overall pick in a draft that is 5 high.That is Tambellini level of a declining asset management after giving up and Allstar center, a top pairing defenseman and a second round pick for.If Burke didn’t make that trade the Leafs would not be needing to blow up that team right now.

    That’s an aggressive concluding sentence.

  35. Marc says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Agree although you have to remember Kessel was unlikely to re-sign in Boston which changes the dynamic.

    He was an RFA. He didn’t have much choice.

  36. TheOtherJohn says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Pretty sure the Flames have exactly as many SC final appearances as the Oilers over the last 24 years — 1

  37. zilong says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Pretty sure the Flames have exactly as many SC final appearances as the Oilers over the last 24 years— 1

    And the same number of playoff series wins in the last 9 (tongue-planted firmly in cheek).

  38. leadfarmer says:

    malinpaul,

    Unfortunately even with MacDavid next year is still a development year. He will still be a rookie although a good one. Yak is still using his training wheels. Klebom needs his 200 at bats. Schultz need to learn from his 200 at bats. Marincin needs some weight room time. Nurse and Draisatl need some AHL at bats. Goalies need some turnover. Hard to find 3 new good defensemen espcially in the UFA market without regretting at least one down the line.

    Having great forwards and crap defense is not a recipe for success. Look crappy the Penguins have been the last two months with 2 Hall of fame centers. DSF says the players on this team have peaked in production. Give them some good defensemen that can get them the puck with speed and stretch the defense with not only passing but strong hard shots from the point and you will see their numbers hit a new high.

  39. Marc says:

    RexLibris:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    The Flames have Hiller, Ortio and Gillies in net.

    That is good depth, but I’m not ready to crown it as “set”.

    They have Hiller for another year, then they need to decide on Ortio, who was good at times but also struggled at times, and recently-signed Gillies.

    Gillies is intriguing because he was exceptional in the NCAA, but now that he is turning pro he’ll need to prove himself at a different level.

    If they were to keep Hiller for another two years beyond next, I’d say they were intelligently hedging their bets.

    We’ll have to see how Ortio and Gillies progress next season.

    The Flames defence is outstanding this year and could be next year as well. But Giordano is in the back nine of his career now, which leaves only Brodie as a young, solid blueliner. Wideman and Russell have done well.

    They need D prospects badly and my guess is they use their cap space and some of their three 2nd round picks to procure a veteran D from a cap-strapped team this summer to bolster that D-corps.

    It could improve next season, depending on what they do.

    Now, have they completed a rebuild, or retooled on the fly?

    Time will tell.

    In Staples’ latest post, he notes that Lucic is apparently looking for a seven year deal in the range of $7 million or $6.5 million.

    That has Brian Burke written all over it.

  40. rickithebear says:

    That golaie Prospect Racked .918 facing 32SHT/gm in the Dub.
    That is in the Brosoitt range of performance.
    then he racks the 2nd best Save% in SM-Ligga ina league of similiar Equivalency as AHL
    .933

    A golaie with .918 CHL and then .933 SM-Ligga has performed to the point of Being
    NHL Back-up MIN.
    the only Problem is 6’0″.

    14-15 AHL
    Murray .941 26.6 SHT/gm
    Markstrom .934 28.6 SHT/gm
    Smith Providence .933 30.4 SHT/gm
    Subban providence .921 31.0 SHT/gm
    Brossoit .918 31.2 SHT/gm
    Ortio .912 30.8 SHT/gm

    Lauikainen .933 31.4 SHT/gm

  41. Compete Level says:

    What could the Oilers realistically get for these two packages: Justin Schultz & 2016 1st / Martin Marincin & 2015 Pitt 1st.

    Schultz could fool some GM …cough..Sakic..cough… But an unsigned RFA doesn’t have that much value.

  42. Disciple of McJesus says:

    Bag of Pucks: Because we want to hire a GM based on his initial intentions, not his final results?

    If that’s the case, we should retain MacT. I think he always ‘intends’ to do the right thing.

    You’re misappropriating the claim. In a large sample size of deals like this, the Burke side should win the majority of the deals (based on likelihood of success of those picks). Those are the kinds of ambitious, but logical deals that should be made instead of complacency.

  43. Bag of Pucks says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Pretty sure the Flames have exactly as many SC final appearances as the Oilers over the last 24 years— 1

    Which is probably another good reason why Flames fans should not go around bragging about what an amazing org/team they are in comparison to the Oil?

    I’ve been told been by a couple Flames fans in confidence that 5-1 is the one retort that really rankles them, cos they know it’s that one ‘drop the mic and walks away’ statement that they have no viable comeback for. Gets even better when you remind them they had a 7 year head start with Atlanta entering the league in 72. lol

  44. TheOtherJohn says:

    zilong,

    except that they’ll have won a playoffs series this year

  45. 5-14-6-1 says:

    Marc: In Staples’ latest post, he notes that Lucic is apparently looking for a seven year deal in the range of $7 million or $6.5 million.

    I wonder which way the salary cap will be headed in the summer of ’16?

  46. OF17 says:

    malinpaul:
    I don’t think Soderberg, Niemmi, Vlasic, and one extra defenceman are enough.

    I’d want at least one more quality experienced true NHL defenceman (3 total), and a couple NHLforwards.

    I don’t think that’s reasonable. Adding three defensemen to a group that already has Klefbom, Schultz, Marincin, Fayne, Ference, and Nikitin signed or RFA for next year? Even if you can move a couple of them, that’s still too many bodies.

    And where are the two forwards going to play? Assuming McDavid and Lander are in the starting 12, you really only have Klinkhammer to replace for that last spot. Is it really worth using assets and/or cap space to upgrade the 4th line RW?

  47. Truth says:

    Compete Level:
    What could the Oilers realistically get for these two packages: Justin Schultz & 2016 1st / Martin Marincin & 2015 Pitt 1st.

    With Bill Scott wearing Nicholson’s lucky socks and carrying his lucky loonie, I wouldn’t be too quick to count the Oilers out of winning the lottery yet again next year. A token Oilers developmental year.

  48. Dashingsilverfox says:

    RexLibris:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    The Flames have Hiller, Ortio and Gillies in net.

    That is good depth, but I’m not ready to crown it as “set”.

    They have Hiller for another year, then they need to decide on Ortio, who was good at times but also struggled at times, and recently-signed Gillies.

    Gillies is intriguing because he was exceptional in the NCAA, but now that he is turning pro he’ll need to prove himself at a different level.

    If they were to keep Hiller for another two years beyond next, I’d say they were intelligently hedging their bets.

    We’ll have to see how Ortio and Gillies progress next season.

    The Flames defence is outstanding this year and could be next year as well. But Giordano is in the back nine of his career now, which leaves only Brodie as a young, solid blueliner. Wideman and Russell have done well.

    They need D prospects badly and my guess is they use their cap space and some of their three 2nd round picks to procure a veteran D from a cap-strapped team this summer to bolster that D-corps.

    It could improve next season, depending on what they do.

    Now, have they completed a rebuild, or retooled on the fly?

    Time will tell.

    Considering they have Monahan, Bennett, Gaudreau, Jooris, Brodie and Ferland in the lineup and playing well and all still under 25, I would think they’re rebuilding.

    Poirier and Klimchuk should round out the forwards nicely with some veteran sheltering and I’m a big fan of Hunter Smith, the giant they stole in last summer’s draft..

    And, while none of Kenney Morrison, Sieloff, Wotherspoon or Kulak strike me as a top pairing D, they aren’t nothing either and, for the next 5 seasons, I think Gio and Brodie will anchor that D.

    Hockey’s Future has their prospect depth ranked #2 overall in the NHL and I think I would agree with that assessment.

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/team-rankings/

    That they also have so much cap space to add pieces it portends very well for their future.

    They’ll likely be first in line when teams like Chicago, Boston and LA have to dump salaries.

    If they can add another top 4D and a scoring winger, they should be very good next season and into the future.

  49. leadfarmer says:

    Marc,

    If Lucic wants that kind of money he better start producing. Thats $160000 per point at his current production level.

  50. Cameron says:

    RexLibris:
    Cameron,

    I’m going to be very interested to see how the Flames do next year.

    They have a lot of cap space, and some roster holes that need addressing.

    Were I a fan my concern would be over the important of this year’s results, playoffs included, in assessing the team.

    Treliving has said that the rebuild is still in process, but winning the 1st round may change some things.

    It will likely be a summer of great change for both teams. If I had to guess, I’d say that the Oilers will be a very different team next season and the series with the Flames could produce very different results.

    Yeah, there is a lot of ‘concern’ (Ryan Lambert, I’m looking at you) regarding the unexpected success the Flames have had this year, and how it is supposdly going to lead to ‘bad things’.

    Given that the most likely mistakes would have already been made (trade deadline deals of kids/prospects for vets), and given that Calgary did the opposite (dealing vets like Glen-X for picks), I’d say this concern that the Flames will summarily abandon their rebuild is largely imaginary.

    One of the ways this will be an interesting offseason is that the holes on the Flames roster are similar (2nd pairing D-men for the Flames, 1st and 2nd pairing Dmen for the Oilers), and there could even be competition between Oilers and Flames for the same trades/signings.

    Bag of Pucks: 5 Cups to 1. But yeah, enjoy that first round win. Living the dream.

    I worked with a homeless drug addict once, he went on and on about what a big shot he used to be too.

  51. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Marc: In Staples’ latest post, he notes that Lucic is apparently looking for a seven year deal in the range of $7 million or $6.5 million.

    That has Brian Burke written all over it.

    Yes it does.

  52. Rational Zealot says:

    In Bag of Pucks world if someone is playing blackjack and hits on 17 and gets a 4, they made a good bet.

    Because results are what matter.

  53. zilong says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    zilong,

    except that they’ll have won a playoffs series this year

    looks that way, but it ain’t over. Either way I was joking in that despite playoff wins clearly Calgary has been the better team in that span (hence tongue in cheek). But, hopefully that is about to change after McD Supersizes our team!

  54. 5-14-6-1 says:

    Cameron: I worked with a homeless drug addict once

    Now this I believe!

  55. Disciple of McJesus says:

    zilong: looks that way, but it ain’t over.Either way I was joking in that despite playoff wins clearly Calgary has been the better team in that span (hence tongue in cheek). But, hopefully that is about to change after McD Supersizes our team!

    I think you’ve got something there in terms of naming alternatives. Or just when he scores. “SUPERSIZE ME!”

  56. Woodguy says:

    Yeti: If so we should celebrate. Eetu Laurikainen will be the most wonderfully named goalie that the Oilers have enjoyed since Jussi was here back in 06/07.

    Et tu Eetu?

    I’m on board.

    Finns win.

  57. 5-14-6-1 says:

    ‘Eatyou’… McD…

    why am I so hungry?

  58. Woodguy says:

    Proof number 288 that McDavid is the hockey Savior.

    I agree most with Traktor and DSF in this thread.

    “….and the lion shall lie down with the lamb….and swords shall be beaten into plowshare……”

    Actual Hockey Jesus.

  59. Unicorns says:

    Dashingsilverfox: That shiny building still has a cockeyed architect and no foundation.

    Admit your envious of self cleaning.

  60. RexLibris says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    The 5-1 Cup thing is where I try not to go in any argument regarding the Oilers/Flames.

    My reasoning is that if I can’t put forth a coherent, rational point of view without using it, then I have failed. Or if I am engaged in a conversation that, in spite of my best efforts, looks like it is going to devolve to that point, then I don’t want any further part in the discussion.

    For the current situation I hang my hat on the following:

    – The Flames are playing the majority of their prized prospects right now, outside of Gillies and Poirier. Thus, aside from some continued development from the forwards which may be offset by gradual deterioration on the defense, this is likely who they are.

    – The defensive prospect pool is very, very shallow. Wotherspoon is the closest and he looks like a 3rd pairing D right now. Maybe a shut-down 2nd pairing guy. Hickey looks good but is years away. Roy and Kanzig are the best of the rest and that isn’t saying much.

    – The goaltending is a strength, but goalies are voodoo and things can go sideways in a hurry there. They are, at least, hedging their bets.

    – They’ve elevated Ferland, Gaudreau, Monahan, Jooris, Granlund and Bennett this season. Not much else left in the prospect tank. So where to now?

    – The C depth chart reads Monahan, Bennett, Backlund, Stajan. Not bad. Not great. I’d rather the Oilers’ C depth chart next year and the four to five years thereafter.

    – And now we get to stats. The number of shots they gave up, game in/game out this year was atrocious. Nobody beats the odds forever. This was their year.

    The Oilers have a bushel of managerial problems currently hiding their light. Clear some of that out and they’ll shine.

    The Flames have retooled very quickly but I suspect that in time they’ll be back in familiar territory, fighting mediocrity, albeit with a few more talented players than the Iginla years. The division they play in is filled with intelligent organizations who are looking to improve. The Flames have so very much farther to go to match what the rest of the Western Conference has.

  61. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Agree although you have to remember Kessel was unlikely to re-sign in Boston which changes the dynamic.

    And they were cap strung.

    That’s the main reason they traded him and why offer sheets were discussed.

  62. leadfarmer says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    And I hope they enjoy his 50 pt seasons at 7 mil. Unless you really think he will shoot 17% last he did 2008, 2010, 2011.

    His coach only played him 16 min per game and 2 of those are on the powerplay. Milan Lucic is not the mythical “Lucic” everyone is looking for.

  63. RexLibris says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Yes it does.

    So does Lawson Crouse.

    Think the Flames try to trade up?

    There’s a Sam Bennett connection.

  64. leadfarmer says:

    RexLibris,

    I would disagree with you on the Flames C depth chart. Right now its pretty good. In the future it will be sitting very good, I mean nowhere near the Oilers depth chart , cough MacDavid cough but better than most teams.

  65. wheatnoil says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Brute

    I assure you, referring to Eetu as E2D2 is one of the higher forms of compliments I can give.

  66. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    I did enjoy the Finnish butterfly style goalie prospect whose name actually meant butterfly: Samu Perhonen

  67. Bag of Pucks says:

    Disciple of McJesus: You’re misappropriating the claim. In a large sample size of deals like this, the Burke side should win the majority of the deals (based on likelihood of success of those picks). Those are the kinds of ambitious, but logical deals that should be made instead of complacency.

    Suggested theoretical value now trumping actual realized value.

    We’re crossing the Rubicon today.

    This thread today is really reminding me of poker, this point in particular of Phil Hellmuth.

    Phil Hellmuth is a guy that plays very mathematically sound poker. He understands implied odds very well and understands implicitly when he has a hand or wagering scenario whereby the odds are theoretically in his favour. Unfortunately, he almost never accommodates the possibility of random chance or luck favoring his opponents in these scenarios or the possibility that his opponent is actually projecting weakness with his betting patterns to reinforce Phil’s sense of theoretical superiority.

    As a result, he often bets too aggressively when he’s certain of an implied odds advantages and thus experiences big swings on his bankroll when a more conservative approach would be effective.

    Now, math always wins in the long run (i.e. I understand what you’re saying about a commitment to theoretical advantage winning out over time), and Phil does own more World Series bracelets than any other poker player. But the defining aspects of Phil’s career are 1) he rarely wins the big prestigious tournaments with this approach, in other words his Stanley Cup continues to elude him & 2) he’s consistently one of the most childish players on the pro tour, constantly telling anyone who will listen that he never played a hand improperly and is only ever beaten by luck. Johnny Chan by comparison is an absolute riverboat gambler with ice water in their veins. He plays a completely different game to Hellmuth. Aggressive, borderline reckless. He’s won nearly the same amount of bracelets and two WSOP titles (the big one).

    In other words, there’s more than one way to skin a cat.

    The implied odds may not have been in Chiarelli’s favour at the ‘time of the trade” but theoretical value does not win you Cups, actual value does.

    Another interesting way of looking at this is looking at what CEOs of top performing companies say about their decision making processes. From Jack Welch at GE to Steve Jobs at Apple, read about these gents and you’ll find they all favored a combination of analysis and gut, and they all have their share of stories to tell when they followed the risky path extolled by the gut over the conservative path favored by the theoretical preference and it paid off in a big way.

    Galileo, Christopher Columbus, Pablo Picasso. We have a list a mile long of people who ignored the conventional wisdom of the time to realize truly historical achievements.

    Conventional wisdom often equal conventional results.

  68. Woodguy says:

    Since being traded to Toronto only 4 players have scored more goals than Kessel.

    Ovechkin
    Stamkos
    Perry
    Nash

    Not sure how you can shit talk a guy who’s scored the 5th most goals in the league over the last 6 years

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2010&year_max=2015&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=S&handed=&c1stat=goals&c1comp=gt&c1val=180&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=goals

    Hey look!

    It’s Perry.

    I wish Nichols/Lowe would have just given Comrie the money he earned and not been dinks about it.

    Dinks.

    Man.

  69. Unicorns says:

    Calgary’s biggest problem is their best player is heading into decline. Gio only has a couple of years left at peak play at most being 32 next year (a very late bloomer) plus has an injury that is hard to heal from 100% depending on how many tendons were torn, and Hiller will be 34.

    And there’s the luck thing. The Av’s are already down there to cushion the blow.

  70. Bag of Pucks says:

    RexLibris:
    Bag of Pucks,

    The 5-1 Cup thing is where I try not to go in any argument regarding the Oilers/Flames.

    My reasoning is that if I can’t put forth a coherent, rational point of view without using it, then I have failed. Or if I am engaged in a conversation that, in spite of my best efforts, looks like it is going to devolve to that point, then I don’t want any further part in the discussion.

    For the current situation I hang my hat on the following:

    – The Flames are playing the majority of their prized prospects right now, outside of Gillies and Poirier. Thus, aside from some continued development from the forwards which may be offset by gradual deterioration on the defense, this is likely who they are.

    – The defensive prospect pool is very, very shallow. Wotherspoon is the closest and he looks like a 3rd pairing D right now. Maybe a shut-down 2nd pairing guy. Hickey looks good but is years away. Roy and Kanzig are the best of the rest and that isn’t saying much.

    – The goaltending is a strength, but goalies are voodoo and things can go sideways in a hurry there. They are, at least, hedging their bets.

    – They’ve elevated Ferland, Gaudreau, Monahan, Jooris, Granlund and Bennett this season. Not much else left in the prospect tank. So where to now?

    – The C depth chart reads Monahan, Bennett, Backlund, Stajan. Not bad. Not great. I’d rather the Oilers’ C depth chart next year and the four to five years thereafter.

    – And now we get to stats. The number of shots they gave up, game in/game out this year was atrocious. Nobody beats the odds forever. This was their year.

    The Oilers have a bushel of managerial problems currently hiding their light. Clear some of that out and they’ll shine.

    The Flames have retooled very quickly but I suspect that in time they’ll be back in familiar territory, fighting mediocrity, albeit with a few more talented players than the Iginla years. The division they play in is filled with intelligent organizations who are looking to improve. The Flames have so very much farther to go to match what the rest of the Western Conference has.

    You are by a massive margin, the most rational and diplomatic Flames fan I have ever encountered.

    If they were all like you, I would hate them…less ; )

  71. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    No.

    Helmuth’s problem is that he assumes his opponents play the same as he does and the range of hands he puts them on is usually too narrow.

    I played with Helmuth for about 8 hours on day 2 of the 2004 WSOP Main Event.

    True story.

  72. LoDog says:

    Woodguy:
    Since being traded to Toronto only 4 players have scored more goals than Kessel.

    Ovechkin
    Stamkos
    Perry
    Nash

    Not sure how you can shit talk a guy who’s scored the 5th most goals in the league over the last 6 years

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2010&year_max=2015&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=S&handed=&c1stat=goals&c1comp=gt&c1val=180&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=goals

    Hey look!

    It’s Perry.

    I wish Nichols/Lowe would have just given Comrie the money he earned and not been dinks about it.

    Dinks.

    Man.

    Yes that Kessel can certainly score some goals.

    And hey thanks for reminding me that the Oilers should have had Perry for the last decade!

  73. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy:
    Bag of Pucks,

    No.

    Helmuth’s problem is that he assumes his opponents play the same as he does and the range of hands he puts them on is usually too narrow.

    I played with Helmuth for about 8 hours on day 2 of the 2004 WSOP Main Event.

    True story.

    That’s awesome.

    And that’s kind of what I’m saying. He plays assuming everyone else is a math robot like him.

    Hope you bluffed the hell out of him?

  74. grim.oil says:

    Thefirstrow.eu

    For all your online sports streaming needs!

  75. Woodguy says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Considering they have Monahan, Bennett, Gaudreau, Jooris, Brodie and Ferland in the lineup and playing well and all still under 25, I would think they’re rebuilding.

    Poirier and Klimchukshould round out the forwards nicely with some veteran sheltering and I’m a big fan of Hunter Smith, the giant they stole in last summer’s draft..

    And, while none of Kenney Morrison, Sieloff, Wotherspoon or Kulak strike me as a top pairing D, they aren’t nothing either and, for the next 5 seasons, I think Gio and Brodie will anchor that D.

    Hockey’s Future has their prospect depth ranked #2 overall in the NHL and I think I would agree with that assessment.

    http://www.hockeysfuture.com/team-rankings/

    That they also have so much cap space to add pieces it portends very well for their future.

    They’ll likely be first in line when teams like Chicago, Boston and LA have to dump salaries.

    If they can add another top 4D and a scoring winger, they should be very good next season and into the future.

    Ok, i’m done agreeing with everything DSF says in this thread.

    Jooris?

    Really?

    Haha!

  76. Rational Zealot says:

    Crossing the rubicon doesn’t mean what you think it means.

    What you meant was, we are through the looking glass.

    This concludes today’s lesson in literary idioms.

  77. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    And I hope they enjoy his 50 pt seasons at 7 mil.Unless you really think he will shoot 17% last he did 2008, 2010, 2011.

    His coach only played him 16 min per game and 2 of those are on the powerplay.Milan Lucic is not the mythical “Lucic” everyone is looking for.

    This is not the Lucic you’re looking for.

    Move along.

  78. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: That’s awesome.

    And that’s kind of what I’m saying. He plays assuming everyone else is a math robot like him.

    Hope you bluffed the hell out of him?

    He wasn’t a “math robot” but he knew his odds vs. opponents range very well when there were more “feel players” back then and he could exploit it.

    I didn’t get into any big pots with him but got bet out of a pot pre-flop where I would have busted him with a flopped set (he got all in vs. A smaller pair on the flop and won)

    I was more weak-tight back then.

  79. Bag of Pucks says:

    Crossing the Rubicon (i.e. passing a point of no return).

    When advanced stats reaches a point whereby theoretical value based on projected value trumps actual realized value, it’s definitely passing a point of no return in terms of validity of measurement.

    By contrast, ‘Through the Looking Glass’ is where alleged logicians favoring Ad Hominem tactics should transit to never return.

  80. 5-14-6-1 says:

    The Swiss beat Russia 5 – 0 in the U18s today.

  81. G Money says:

    I am enjoying today’s thread.

    Does this mean I’ve crossed the Rubicon into the looking glass?

  82. Marc says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    The Oilers may have an edge in the quality of their top 6 forwards but everywhere else, you have to think the Flames are superior and, of course, the Flames have the cap space to address any holes in their lineup.

    You frequently mention how much cap space the Flames have.

    They have about $50M committed for next season, so will have around $20M to spend this summer. They need to sign Backlund, Jooris, Knight, Bouma and Ferland to new contracts, but I imagine they’ll still have a reasonable amount left over. Maybe $10M or so?

    The following summer another $20M come of the books, but the following players need new contracts or replacing:
    Giordano
    Hudler
    Gaudreau
    Monahan
    Russell
    Colborne
    Jones
    Granlund
    Hiller

    If you’re scoring at home, that’s Calgary’s first, second, third, fifth, seventh, ninth and tenth highest scorers this season, and their starting goalie.

    Based on the deals that other Norris caliber D got, Gio will cost $7.5M – $9M to resign. Gaudreau and Monahan can either sign bridge deals like Pacioretty ($4M-$4.5M) or long term deals like Hall et al ($6M). Either way, pretty much all of Calgary’s available cap space in the summer of 2016 will go to those three players.

    So whilst Calgary does have a fair amount of space this summer, actually using it will mean replacing half of their top ten scorers with league minimum earning players next summer.

    If one were prone to hyperbole, one might say Calgary have to win the Stanley Cup this year or next before they have to blow the whole thing up due to the cap.

    Fortunately no one on here is prone to that type of exaggeration.

  83. Woodguy says:

    leadfarmer:
    Woodguy,

    I did enjoy the Finnish butterfly style goalie prospect whose name actually meant butterfly:Samu Perhonen

    It’s a shame he hasn’t panned out.

    Soooooo many fun sentences left unused.

  84. Woodguy says:

    Marc: You frequently mention how much cap space the Flames have.

    They have about$50M committed for next season, so will have around $20M to spend this summer.They need to sign Backlund, Jooris, Knight, Bouma and Ferland to new contracts, but I imagine they’ll still have a reasonable amount left over. Maybe $10M or so?

    The following summer another $20M come of the books, but the following players need new contracts or replacing:
    Giordano
    Hudler
    Gaudreau
    Monahan
    Russell
    Colborne
    Jones
    Granlund
    Hiller

    If you’re scoring at home, that’s Calgary’s first, second, third, fifth, seventh, ninth and tenth highest scorers this season, and their starting goalie.

    Based on the deals that other Norris caliber D got, Gio will cost $7.5M – $9M to resign. Gaudreau and Monahan can either sign bridge deals like Pacioretty ($4M-$4.5M) or long term deals like Hall et al ($6M).Either way, pretty much all of Calgary’s available cap space in the summer of 2016 will go to those three players.

    So whilst Calgary does have a fair amount of space this summer, actually using it will mean replacing half of their top ten scorers with league minimum earning players next summer.

    If one were prone to hyperbole, one might say Calgary have to win the Stanley Cup this year or next before they have to blow the whole thing up due to the cap.

    Fortunately no one on here is prone to that type of exaggeration.

    Love you.

    Just so you know.

  85. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money:
    I am enjoying today’s thread.

    Does this mean I’ve crossed the Rubicon into the looking glass?

    Yep. It’s all good though. It’s not too bad over here. We’ve got scotch, artisanal cheeses and a wicked cool hockey card collection.

  86. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    I am enjoying today’s thread.

    Does this mean I’ve crossed the Rubicon into the looking glass?

    So you’re attacking Rome on mushrooms with Lewis Carroll.

    Good to know.

  87. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Crossing the Rubicon (i.e. passing a point of no return).

    When advanced stats reaches a point whereby theoretical value based on projected value trumps actual realized value, it’s definitely passing a point of no return in terms of validity of measurement.

    By contrast, ‘Through the Looking Glass’ is where alleged logicians favoring Ad Hominem tactics should transit to never return.

    “Sic transit gloria”

    “I didn’t know Gloria was sick!?!”

    -Mel Brooks

  88. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy: He wasn’t a “math robot” but he knew his odds vs. opponents range very well when there were more “feel players” back then and he could exploit it.

    I didn’t get into any big pots with him but got bet out of a pot pre-flop where I would have busted him with a flopped set (he got all in vs. A smaller pair on the flop and won)

    I was more weak-tight back then.

    I couldn’t play Hellmuth. I’d be like Austin Powers in Goldmember talking to Fred Savage. Mole. Mollllllllllllllllllllllllllle!

  89. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Stamkos, Perry, and Nash play in all 3 zones. Ovechkin plays a physical game. Kessel plays in one zone. He is amazing at the things he does in the offensive zone. The rest of his game not so much. He will be good on a team that plays a good 2 way game as a whole and need extra goal scoring. How many more points would good players in the league (such as Toews) get if they played an all out offense style and didn’t try much in the other zones.

    People give Yak a hard time for getting the green jacket this year, well guess who was right there along side him.

  90. Bag of Pucks says:

    Cameron

    I worked with a homeless drug addict once, he went on and on about what a big shot he used to be too.

    How’s your Dad doing btw? I hope he’s getting better.

    I keed. I keed.

  91. Klima's_Bucket says:

    RexLibris,

    Thank you for restoring my hope in the future failings of the Flames.

    MCDAVID WOOOOOTTTTTT HHAHAHAHAHAHAHA MCDAVID WOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTT HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

  92. Khlhfs says:

    A little bit off topic here. Does anyone know what has been keeping Yakimov out of the lineup?

  93. book¡je says:

    Woodguy:
    Since being traded to Toronto only 4 players have scored more goals than Kessel.

    Ovechkin
    Stamkos
    Perry
    Nash

    Not sure how you can shit talk a guy who’s scored the 5th most goals in the league over the last 6 years

    http://www.hockey-reference.com/play-index/psl_finder.cgi?request=1&match=combined&year_min=2010&year_max=2015&season_start=1&season_end=-1&rookie=N&age_min=0&age_max=99&birth_country=&franch_id=&is_active=&is_hof=&pos=S&handed=&c1stat=goals&c1comp=gt&c1val=180&c2stat=&c2comp=gt&c2val=&c3stat=&c3comp=gt&c3val=&c4stat=&c4comp=gt&c4val=&order_by=goals

    Hey look!

    It’s Perry.

    I wish Nichols/Lowe would have just given Comrie the money he earned and not been dinks about it.

    Dinks.

    Man.

    It was all part of the long plan to get McDavid!

  94. hunter1909 says:

    Bag of Pucks: Galileo, Christopher Columbus, Pablo Picasso. We have a list a mile long of people who ignored the conventional wisdom of the time to realize truly historical achievements.

    Come on. I know Lowe has 6 rings, and MacT has an MBA from Queens, but comparing them to Galileo + Picasso stretches credibility.

    Unless you’re going to say Lowe has got the artistic ability of Columbus, the navigation skills of Picasso and a lot more skating ability than Galileo.

  95. stevezie says:

    Rational Zealot:
    In Bag of Pucks world if someone is playing blackjack and hits on 17 and gets a 4, they made a good bet.

    Because results are what matter.

    This is it exactly. Depends on how you define “win”. If you hit on 17 and get a four, you definitely won. I’d say Chiarelli won the Seguin trade, even considering the lousy second Seguin trade. But did he fluke out with a foolish process? No one gives the blackjack player credit for hitting on 17 and getting lucky. No one should.

    I think (as many have pointed out) that the context in which Boston dealt Kessel matters. Kessel had one elite season under his belt, was fairly open about not wanting to be in Boston, the Bruins had no cap room, and Toronto was looking shakey. Considering how vulnerable they were to an offer sheet, I think Boston did well to get two firsts and a second from a bad team. I don’t know cards enough to make a good analogy, but I think the trade is definitely better than hitting on 17. Thirteen maybe? Twelve? And the dealer was showing a face?

  96. Bag of Pucks says:

    hunter1909: Come on. I know Lowe has 6 rings, and MacT has an MBA from Queens, but comparing them to Galileo + Picasso stretches credibility.

    Unless you’re going to say Lowe has got the artistic ability of Columbus, the navigation skills of Picasso and a lot more skating ability than Galileo.

    Lowe steers the good ship Oiler like Joseph Hazelwood?

    MacT’s roster looks like a Jackson Pollock painting?

  97. sliderule says:

    The flames are giving up a lot of shots against.

    Through a lot of great research from Frjohn and others we know that shot quality matters.

    Are the Flames giving up a low percentage of high quality shots in comparison to say Oilers?

  98. Bag of Pucks says:

    stevezie: This is it exactly. Depends on how you define “win”. If you hit on 17 and get a four, you definitely won. I’d say Chiarelli won the Seguin trade, even considering the lousy second Seguin trade. But did he fluke out with a foolish process? No one gives the blackjack player credit for hitting on 17 and getting lucky. No one should.

    I think (as many have pointed out) that the context in which Boston dealt Kessel matters. Kessel had one elite season under his belt, was fairly open about not wanting to be in Boston, the Bruins had no cap room, and Toronto was looking shakey. Considering how vulnerable they were to an offer sheet, I think Boston did well to get two firsts and a second from a bad team.I don’t know cards enough to make a good analogy, but I think the trade is definitely better than hitting on 17. Thirteen maybe? Twelve? And the dealer was showing a face?

    I think most of us live in a world were reality trumps the theoretical.

    You ever have that conversation with a Christian who so fervently believes in pre-destination, that if it were God’s will, he’s absolutely convinced he could step in front of a bus and not suffer a scratch? The only thing stopping him is he doesn’t know God’s will.

    Man, the theoretical can present a convincing argument sometimes.

    Me, I’ll stay on the curb, thanks.

  99. RexLibris says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Of for the love of…

    How Pouzar feels about the Jets…that’s how I feel about the Flames.

    And then some.

  100. RexLibris says:

    Khlhfs:
    A little bit off topic here. Does anyone know what has been keeping Yakimov out of the lineup?

    Knee injury. Sprain, I think. They haven’t said what.

  101. RexLibris says:

    sliderule:
    The flames are giving up a lot of shots against.

    Through a lot of great research from Frjohn and others we know that shot quality matters.

    Are the Flames giving up a low percentage of high quality shots in comparison to say Oilers?

    GMoney would be the one to ask, but from my (foggy) recollection I think they are about league average.

  102. blainer says:

    Watching Nurse play reminds me of a tournament I played in 15 years ago.. After we won the tourney one the teams opposing players came over to tell me that number 10 on your team is some centerman…. I laughed … and laughed .. then told him he plays defense…

  103. Bag of Pucks says:

    RexLibris:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Of for the love of…

    How Pouzar feels about the Jets…that’s how I feel about the Flames.

    And then some.

    Doh! I stand corrected. Sorry about that.

  104. G Money says:

    sliderule:
    The flames are giving up a lot of shots against.

    Through a lot of great research from Frjohn and others we know that shot quality matters.

    Are the Flames giving up a low percentage of high quality shots in comparison to say Oilers?

    A quick look is to use the w-o-i scoring chance vs Corsi data.

    At EV Corsi, the Flames were 28th (44.4%) and the Oilers were 23rd (48.1%). One was horrendous and the other just somewhat bad.

    The war-on-ice scoring chance data weights that using both location and time (e.g. rebounds and odd man rushes).

    By that measure, the Flames are still awful (26th, 45.1%).

    The Oilers do become quite a bit worse, confirming that they do give up more dangerous chances than their Corsi would suggest. However, at 25th (45.8%), they’re still somewhat better than the Flames, and both teams are quite awful.

    This is why the safe bet for next year is for the Flames to regress. It doesn’t matter how you look at it, they are going against the odds.

    One way to think about it is that Corsi might have e.g. 80% predictive power over the course of the year. 80% x 30 teams = 6 teams every year that you should expect will beat the odds, either for good (Flames) or for bad (Kings). It happens. Every year. The only surprise would be if it didn’t happen.

    Maybe there really is something magical about the Flames, and they’ve found a way to ‘beat Corsi’, but of course that’s what every team says when it happens to them. Hasn’t worked that way yet.

  105. striker says:

    Marc: You frequently mention how much cap space the Flames have.

    They have about $50M committed for next season, so will have around $20M to spend this summer. They need to sign Backlund, Jooris, Knight, Bouma and Ferland to new contracts, but I imagine they’ll still have a reasonable amount left over. Maybe $10M or so?

    The following summer another $20M come of the books, but the following players need new contracts or replacing:
    Giordano
    Hudler
    Gaudreau
    Monahan
    Russell
    Colborne
    Jones
    Granlund
    Hiller

    If you’re scoring at home, that’s Calgary’s first, second, third, fifth, seventh, ninth and tenth highest scorers this season, and their starting goalie.

    Based on the deals that other Norris caliber D got, Gio will cost $7.5M – $9M to resign. Gaudreau and Monahan can either sign bridge deals like Pacioretty ($4M-$4.5M) or long term deals like Hall et al ($6M). Either way, pretty much all of Calgary’s available cap space in the summer of 2016 will go to those three players.

    So whilst Calgary does have a fair amount of space this summer, actually using it will mean replacing half of their top ten scorers with league minimum earning players next summer.

    If one were prone to hyperbole, one might say Calgary have to win the Stanley Cup this year or next before they have to blow the whole thing up due to the cap.

    Fortunately no one on here is prone to that type of exaggeration.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zIdUlp3QAsk

  106. Магия 10 says:

    Marc: If one were prone to hyperbole, one might say Calgary have to win the Stanley Cup this year or next before they have to blow the whole thing up due to the cap.
    Fortunately no one on here is prone to that type of exaggeration

    This. PIn. It.

  107. book¡je says:

    G Money: A quick look is to use the w-o-i scoring chance vs Corsi data.

    At EV Corsi, the Flames were 28th (44.4%) and the Oilers were 23rd (48.1%).One was horrendous and the other just somewhat bad.

    The war-on-ice scoring chance data weights that using both location and time (e.g. rebounds and odd man rushes).

    By that measure, the Flames are still awful (26th, 45.1%).

    The Oilers do become quite a bit worse, confirming that they do give up more dangerous chances than their Corsi would suggest.However, at 25th (45.8%), they’re still somewhat better than the Flames, and both teams are quite awful.

    This is why the safe bet for next year is for the Flames to regress.It doesn’t matter how you look at it, they are going against the odds.

    One way to think about it is that Corsi might have e.g. 80% predictive power over the course of the year. 80% x 30 teams = 6 teams every year that you should expect will beat the odds, either for good (Flames) or for bad (Kings).It happens.Every year.The only surprise would be if it didn’t happen.

    Maybe there really is something magical about the Flames, and they’ve found a way to ‘beat Corsi’, but of course that’s what every team says when it happens to them.Hasn’t worked that way yet.

    Well said, and if it is possible to beat corsi on an ongoing basis, its likely easier to do so on the losing side (Eakins) .

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