THE OIL DOWN DESERT WAY (HAS BEEN SHAKING TO THE TOP)

The NHL draft goes June 26 & 27 in Sunrise, Florida. It is the 53rd draft in the league’s history. Edmonton’s best draft came in 1979, when Kevin Lowe, Glenn Anderson and Mark Messier were selected. That draft, along with the 1980 (Coffey, Kurri, Moog) and 1981 drafts (Fuhr, Smith) gave Edmonton a cluster that rivaled any in the game’s history.

The Oilers have been gifted with the best player in a generation through pure luck, but it will be hard work to marry that gem to other exceptional talents available in 2015. McDavid’s draft must also contain quality beyond the No. 1 overall selection.

Edmonton’s NHL franchise is standing on the threshold of another golden era. Pushing the door open isn’t enough, it’s time to kick out the jams.

 TOP 90 PLAYERS IN THE 2015 DRAFT

  1. (1) C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) Franchise cornerstone, Hockey Jesus.
  2. (2) C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) Franchise player.
  3. (3) R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) Impact offensive player, size will impact draft number.
  4. (4) D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) Complete skill set, money passer. Oilers perfect fit.
  5. (5) C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) The good Strome, and the other guy is terrific!
  6. (6) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) Lubo 2.0? Fine range of skills. Strong Oilers fit.
  7. (7) C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) Quick, skilled, dangerous. Smart.
  8. (8) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA) Terrific offensive defender.
  9. (9) R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML) Creative, responsible, great passer.
  10. (10) R Timo Meier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) Tremendous talent, NHL-ready?
  11. (12) C Nick Merkley, Kelowna Rockets (WHL) Strong two-way skills.
  12. (11) R Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton (QMJHL) Big, strong and skilled.
  13. (13) C Anthony Beauvillier, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) Small, elite skills.
  14. (18) C Travis Konecny, Ottawa 67’s (OHL) Impressive player with range of skills.
  15. (16) D Jeremy Roy, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL) Offensive D, has ability as a defender
  16. (15) D Mitchell Vande Sompel, Oshawa (OHL) Undersized two-way defender. Substantial skills.
  17. (17) C Jansen Harkins, Prince George Cougars (WHL) Two-way center, skilled. 
  18. (19) C Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL) Smart two-way forward.
  19. (14) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL) Great wheels, solid defender.
  20. (20) R Daniel Sprong, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL) Quick, skilled first-shot scorer
  21. (21) L Jake Debrusk, Swift Current (WHL) Goal-scoring winger with speed.
  22. (22) R Blake Speers, SSM Greyhounds (OHL) Two-way W, good speed. Terrific player.
  23. (27) C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia Sting (OHL). Big, physical center with average offense. Solid U18’s.
  24. (23) G Daniel Vladar, Kladno (Czech 2) 8GP, 1.97 .933
  25. (24) D Ryan Pilon, Brandon (WHL) Two-way defender with size and speed.
  26. (31) L Lawson Crouse, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) Power forward with vague offensive skills
  27. (25) C Andrew Mangiapane, Barrie (OHL) Brilliant offensive player.
  28. (26) C Filip Chlapik, Charlotteteown Islanders (QMJHL) Two-way C, range of skills
  29. (29) C Joel Eriksson Ek, Farjestad (SEL) Skill C with size, speed.
  30. (30) C-R Jeremy Bracco, USNTDP (USHL) Small forward with fast hands, great skill.
  31. (28) D Travis Dermott, Erie Otters (OHL) Undersized, mobile defender.
  32. (33) R Brock Boeser, Waterloo Blachawks (USHL) Power winger, impressive scorer
  33. (32) D Ethan Bear, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) Mobile defender, very good shot.
  34. (34) D Thomas Chabot, Saint John Seadogs (QMJHL) Fine passer, solid defender.
  35. (36) L Paul Bittner, Portland Winterhawks (WHL) Big winger with some scoring ability
  36. (39) D Rasmus Andersson, Barrie (OHL) Smart 2-way D.
  37. (35) D Jakub Zboril, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL) Two-way D, solid offense.
  38. (37) L Dennis Yan, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) Scoring W with some size.
  39. (38) R Nikita Korostelev, Sarnia Sting (OHL) Skill winger.
  40. (41) C Nathan Noel, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL) Wide range of skills.
  41. (43) F Filip Ahl, HV-71 (SHL) 6.04, 214, strong all the walls. Tough to move. 
  42. (52) C Mitchell Stephens, Saginaw Spirit (OHL). Speedy C had a massive U18’s.
  43. (45) F Colin White, USNTDP (USHL) Fine skater, two-way player.
  44. (40) L Dmytro Timashov, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) Explosive winger with crazy numbers.
  45. (42) R Jens Looke, Brynas (SHL) Playmaking winger with speed.
  46. (46) D Nicolas Meloche, Baie-Comeau (QMJHL) Offensive defender, good size.
  47. (47) G Matej Tomek, Topeka Roadrunners (NAHL) 31GP, 1.71 .932
  48. (44) C Nicolas Roy, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL) Rugged two-way C.
  49. (51) L Ryan Gropp, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) PF prospect, can score goals.
  50. (59) D Noah Juulsen, Everett Silvertips (WHL) Good size, can play defense, some skill.
  51. (56) R Zach Senyshyn, SSM Greyhounds (OHL) Terrific speed, no fear. Skilled.
  52. (48) C-R Roope Hintz, Ilves (SML) Intelligent two-way W, fine skater.
  53. (53) L Erik Foley, Cedar Rapids (USHL) Tough winger has offensive ability.
  54. (57) D Vince Dunn, Niagara (OHL). Smart offensive defender. 
  55. (49) L Vladimir Tkachev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) Small W, extremely skilled.
  56. (50) D Matt Spencer, Peterborough Petes (OHL) Tough two-way defender.
  57. (54) D Jacob Larsson, Frolunda (SHL) Puck moving defender.
  58. (61) G Michael McNiven, Owen Sound Attack (OHL) 23GP, 2.78 .914
  59. (55) R Michael Spacek, Pardubice (Cze) Skilled, hard working.
  60. (58) C Julius Nattinen, JYP (Fin 2). Big skill C gaining steam during spring tournaments.
  61. (65) D Erik Cernak, Kosice (Slovak) Huge defenseman with a nice range of skills.
  62. (67) L Denis Gurianov, Lada (MHL). Smooth offensive player, good size. Quality U18. 
  63. (60) L Graham Knott, Niagra Ice Dogs (OHL) Size, good scorer, range of skills.
  64. (66) D Brandon Carlo, Tri-City (WHL) Big, strong, mean defender.
  65. (63) G MacKenzie Blackwood, Barrie Colts (OHL). Big butterfly style goalie.
  66. (64) L Jordan Greenway, USNTDP (USHL) Power winger with skill.
  67. (68) D Parker Wotherspoon, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Good skater, defender, increasing offense.
  68. (62) C Tyler Soy, Victoria Royals (WHL) Lightning quick forward.
  69. (69) D Vili Saarijavi, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL). Small puck moving D is a wizard. Big U18’s.
  70. (70) C Jack Roslovic, USNTDP (USHL) Playmaking C had a tremendous U18’s.
  71. (71) C Thomas Novak, Waterlook Blackhawks (USHL). Skilled two-way center.
  72. (72) R David Case, Chomutov (Cze-2) Skilled winger with aggressive bent. Impressive U18’s.
  73. (73) C Glenn Gawdin, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Keeps impressing with two-way skills.
  74. (74) L Jesse Gabrielle, Regina Pats (WHL). Projects as a scoring winger—better than boxcars.
  75. (75) R Christian Fischer, USNTDP (USHL). Scoring winger with size, 7 points at U18’s.
  76. (76) L Sebastian Ohlsson, Skelleftea (SHL). Small skill center showed well at U18’s.
  77. (77) D Kyle Capobianco, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). Skill D had a strong finish to OHL season.
  78. (78) C Gabriel Gagne, Victoriaville (QMJHL) Huge C, good speed, very creative offensively.
  79. (81) R Deven Sideroff, Kamloops Blazers (WHL). Skill winger, hard worker, very good passer.
  80. (79) R Lukas Jasek, Trinec (Czech). Smart two-way forward with skill.
  81. (80) C Alexander Dergachyov, St. Petersburg (Rus Jr). Giant skill C.
  82. (82) L Robin Kovacs, AIK (Allsvenskan). Skill winger with speed, rugged and pesky style.
  83. (83) L Austin Wagner, Regina Pats (WHL). Speedy winger emerged late and can do a lot of things.
  84. (84) C Yakov Trenin, Gatineau Olympique (QMJHL). Skilled forward, foot speed an issue.
  85. (85) G Ilya Samsonov, Magnitogorsk (Rus Jr) Big goalie, good numbers, quality U18’s.
  86. (86) C Brad Morrison, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Speedy and creative center.
  87. (87) D Gabriel Carlsson, Linkoping (Swe Jr). Rangy defender, highly rated by Central Scouting.
  88. (NR) G Adin Hill, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). .921 SP and he’s 6.04
  89. (88) C Dante Salituro, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Small forward, terrific skill.
  90. (NR) D Gustaf Bouramman, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Puck-moving defender with decent size, he has ability defensively.

Just for fun, and based on my list, this is what Edmonton could be looking at if they retained all of their picks inside the top 90 overall (I’m picking players ‘in the range’ but no selection is above the draft number below).

  • No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid.
  • No. 16 overall: D Jeremy Roy
  • No. 33 overall: D Jakub Zboril
  • No. 60 overall: L Denis Gurianov
  • No. 79 overall: R Lukas Jasek
  • No. 88 overall: G Adin Hill

I’m really hoping they kill it in this draft and yes I know there’s every chance the Pittsburgh pick is sent away. It’s a deep draft, Edmonton ha six picks in the top 90 overall. They should have a spectacular draft.

This is the real expert, Pronman’s list drops soon and I hope to have him on the show some time next week to talk about the draft. Questions? Let me know.

If you missed it, well worth the read. Cullen is always first out of the box in looking at the bottom feeders and where they are headed, this is a great article.

HOW WILL I KNOW?

Last night’s discussion in regard to MacT being second in command was interesting and I sense some frustration from a few commenters. Here’s a really good way to look at things: The Oilers have clear issues and the solutions, while difficult, are clear. Peter Chiarelli needs to:

  • Find the right coach
  • Draft McDavid and deliver a strong group of complementary pieces with later picks
  • Sign or trade for a legit starting goalie
  • Fix the defense, which could include buyouts, trades and walking away from overpriced free agents.

If we see him deliver on these things, then Craig MacTavish and his reputation will rise. If we hear Peter Chiarelli talking about Nikitin as a top 4D and Schultz as a future Norris winner, we’ll know the call is coming from inside the house. VERY unlikely Peter Chiarelli loses his ability or courage of his convictions, and last I hear MacT hadn’t mastered hypnosis or the mind meld.

 

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116 Responses to "THE OIL DOWN DESERT WAY (HAS BEEN SHAKING TO THE TOP)"

  1. Zack says:

    There’s not a time I visit this blog where I get tired of seeing the McDavid name bar as the main picture of a topic. Man this is exciting!

  2. bsmart says:

    “Then we know the call is coming from inside the house” I just spit out my morning Cheerios laughing so hard, hilarious stuff!

  3. bsmart says:

    Zack,

    So true I’m fixated on drafting McDavid, reading every article that I can get my mitts on. I am excited to see how much better he can make the players around him. Especially when those existing players are loaded with skill.

  4. bsmart says:

    sliderule:
    Daum who was an assistant coach at u18 junior was raving aboutChabot.

    He praised his skating and overall ability.

    Doubt if he will be there at 33 for oil.

    Chabot did show well at the u18 but his seasonal numbers weren’t stellar

  5. Rondo says:

    Looking at your list Oilers would jump if Pavel Zacha was available at #16 and would jump at Lawson Crouse too.

  6. Concur says:

    “Then we know the call is coming from inside the house” this sent a shiver up my spine. Imagine if it was true. Abandon all hope, ye who enter here.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Rondo:
    Looking at your list Oilers would jump if Pavel Zacha was available at #16 and would jump at LawsonCrouse too.

    There’s no way either player goes that low. I agree completely but didn’t want to cherry pick, and honestly if both were available at No. 16 I’d prefer other players.

  8. Woodguy says:

    VERY unlikely Peter Chiarelli loses his ability or courage of his convictions, and last I hear MacT hadn’t mastered hypnosis or the mind meld.

    Agreed.

    Basically the whole MacT #2 thing comes down to this question:

    “Do you think Chia would have taken the job if he *had* to answer to/listen to Lowe and MacT?”

    Two things lead me to say no.

    1) He just left a situation where the POHO was a franchise icon, and was repeatedly mowing his lawn and eventually pushed him out. He would not be keen to repeat that situation

    2) When Nicholson introduced Chia it was as POHO and GM. They soft peddled the MacT thing because he was relieved of duties not 24 hours before the presser. Word has it that POHO and final decision making was offered and refused. PHO & GM or nothing. Here we are.

    So it boils down to:

    Do you think Chia is capable of evaluating the roster without mimicking MacT’s thoughts?

    There, I’m not sure.

    How much Chia will listen to MacT is the big unknown.

    Given that Chia is POHO and GM, my guess is that he has no trouble heeding his own council.

    Our best hope is that Chia spends the next month watching game film to come to his own conclusions so he is better prepared to evaluate the advice of those who guided to Oilers to permanent toilet status.

    MacT will be handy given his familiarity with the 50 man, but I fear his influence in regards to the D.

  9. oliveoilers says:

    Good article LT, and a nice, unbiased view from Mr. Cullen. For me, this is the money paragraph:

    “In the 2013-2014 season, Martin Marincin formed one half (with Jeff Petry) of the Oilers’ best defensive tandem. So, what happened at the start of last season? He was demoted to the AHL, ostensibly because he had a poor training camp, and definitely not because the Oilers had already committed more money to veterans Nikitin and Fayne. In any case, 23-year-old Marincin did get called up again. He could be ready to earn more responsibility or a useful trade chip to acquire more immediate help.”

    The bit about Marincin’s demotion made me snort tea, then made me think about how the Oilers are viewed by people with absolutely no bias. As we’ve discussed before, perception is a powerful thing.

    The same could have been said about the Petry trade, ostensibly because they’d given his packed lunch to Ference and Nikitin.

    Very fair analysis, mostly agreeing with the collective wisdom of the LT crowd.

    Wonder what the Vancouver OSGP is? Trade the Sedins while they still have value or we’re effed?

  10. Really? says:

    It will be very interesting to see if the Oilers, under Chiarelli, will attempt to move higher with their second first round pick. It would be a strategic victory if they could get into the 6-9 range. The skill in that group is significant.

  11. spoiler says:

    oliveoilers: Wonder what the Vancouver OSGP is? Trade the Sedins while they still have value or we’re effed?

    We?

  12. oliveoilers says:

    Woodguy,

    My opinion is that MacT has been dealt with in a way that seems fair, by and large, by all except him and even he may come around. He still has input, but not the final decision. And if he doesn’t like it. he can always quit and everyone will understand. It is a fairly common way of dealing with people who are valued by the company for various reasons, but clearly not up to the position they’re in. At least they didn’t promote MacT out of the job.

    “All your executive position are belong to me.” Chiarelli, upon his hiring.

  13. bcoil says:

    I think Chiarelli was not coming on board without total control because he did not know the management team here very well. As he gets to know this organization some will be gone and some will stay but it will be his call and his call alone . I think Mac T has done a good job considering the mess he was left with and I think Chiarelli will get to know this and I see him letting go of the GM position in a year and giving it to Mac T once he has confidence in his abilities. But coming in he wanted total control for a least the first year and I would be the same if I was coming into an organization with this bad of a reputation.Especially until I knew where the problems where.

  14. oliveoilers says:

    spoiler: We?

    Errr, ummm, a slip of the fingers, I meant “those dirty west coast bast-ids”. I am definitely am not a spy.

    (phew, close one. *goes back to polishing his personalised Vancouver Stanley Cup ring*)

  15. Stanley 2018 says:

    Chiarelli was offered, and accepted, the Edmonton job because he has a clear vision and conviction of what needs to be done and a clear path to do it. MacT et al are only there because PC has no time to revamp a coaching staff, Scout Staff, and Management staff by June. Makes sense to work with what you have, for now. I’m sure part of the deal with Katz included not tossing Lowe and MacT into the back-alley dumpster, but as long as their following PC’s marching orders I’m ok with it. Wish more employers had that kind of loyalty to their staff.

    Also, if you haven’t been watching McDavid V. Nurse, you’d be foolish not to watch G6 tonight. Can’t watch it sitting down. Pacqu-something and MayWhatever? Fugget about it!

  16. frjohnk says:

    Some nice prospects will be available with our 2nd,3rd and 4th picks.

    But not a guarantee that all or any of them will become impact or even serviceable players. 2003 was a beautiful draft, but there were some misses there as well in the first round.

    And if they do become impact or just serviceable players, it might take 4,5 or 6 years.

    Pitts pick and the two 2nd rounders are some nice bullets to use in trades to turn this ship around.

  17. RexLibris says:

    Hey LT,

    On Jasek at #79…

    Gonna have to go ahead and disagree with ya there, Bob.

    If Dergachyev is available at that pick, I think you have to take him.

    He’s as big as, and perhaps more skilled than, Yakimov.

    I like 2-way forwards, but I’d take Harkins at 16 for that role and grab the ginormous Russian C deeper down the list, if he’s still there.

    I’d like to see them work the same strategy that Andersson described earlier this year: skill at all positions. Depth players can be acquired elsewhere, but skill comes at a premium.

    Besides, Jasek has been having some troubles with his TPS reports lately…

  18. D says:

    Hey LT,

    How would you compare the luck factor in McDavid versus the luck factor in that other kid who arrived in 1978? Can we agree that McDavid is close to 100% luck, and Gretz was a combination of both luck and some smart forecasting / strategy back in the day? What percentage do you think the luck factor was in the 1978 transaction compared to 2015?

  19. spoiler says:

    RexLibris: Besides, Jasek has been having some troubles with his TPS reports lately…

    No cover sheet?

  20. supernova says:

    Woodguy:
    VERY unlikely Peter Chiarelli loses his ability or courage of his convictions, and last I hear MacT hadn’t mastered hypnosis or the mind meld.

    Agreed.

    Basically the whole MacT #2 thing comes down to this question:

    “Do you think Chia would have taken the job if he *had* to answer to/listen to Lowe and MacT?”

    Two things lead me to say no.

    1) He just left a situation where the POHO was a franchise icon, and was repeatedly mowing his lawn and eventually pushed him out.He would not be keen to repeat that situation

    2) When Nicholson introduced Chia it was as POHO and GM.They soft peddled the MacT thing because he was relieved of duties not 24 hours before the presser.Word has it that POHO and final decision making was offered and refused.PHO & GM or nothing.Here we are.

    So it boils down to:

    Do you think Chia is capable of evaluating the roster without mimicking MacT’s thoughts?

    There, I’m not sure.

    How much Chia will listen to MacT is the big unknown.

    Given that Chia is POHO and GM, my guess is that he has no trouble heeding his own council.

    Our best hope is that Chia spends the next month watching game film to come to his own conclusions so he is better prepared to evaluate the advice of those who guided to Oilers to permanent toilet status.

    MacT will be handy given his familiarity with the 50 man, but I fear his influence in regards to the D.

    Also it seems Chiarelli doesn’t need to prove he is the smartest man in the room.

    He knows he is smart, and has power but doesn’t need to prove it.

    In the behind the B episode it has a clip of Cam Neely saying “seguin doesn’t fit our identity or who we are”

    Shortly after Chia deals Seguin.

    Chia has been roasted for that trade, I have never heard him say
    “Well you know my boss didn’t like him”

    Chia always sticks to the same story. Owns the decision that he and the group ultimately made.

    To me that shows leadership and the reason he wanted final say.

    He can take in others opinions and also make his own mind but I have never heard him back down from his convictions.

    People have got on MacT for not bashing Eakins or want him to say Nikitin was a mistake.

    Why would he ever do that? His name would be trash on the inside of hockey decision making circles.

    What we should want Is someone who identifies his mistakes and then corrects them but not publicly.

    Can Chia take in MacT’s opinions and still make the final call even if it is different? To me I see absolutely yes.

    The positive is we likely don’t see another 70% of the roster flushed just 2 years after MacT’ started his flushing.

  21. Rondo says:

    Lowetide: There’s no way either player goes that low. I agree completely but didn’t want to cherry pick, and honestly if both were available at No. 16 I’d prefer other players.

    Begs the question who?

  22. Woodguy says:

    D:
    Hey LT,

    How would you compare the luck factor in McDavid versus the luck factor in that other kid who arrived in 1978?Can we agree that McDavid is close to 100% luck, and Gretz was a combination of both luck and some smart forecasting / strategy back in the day?What percentage do you think the luck factor was in the 1978 transaction compared to 2015?

    Pocklington won Gretzky in a backgammon game.

    Little bit of luck there.

  23. spoiler says:

    Rondo: Begs the question who?

    LT said..

    Just for fun, and based on my list, this is what Edmonton could be looking at if they retained all of their picks inside the top 90 overall (I’m picking players ‘in the range’ but no selection is above the draft number below).
    •No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid.
    •No. 16 overall: D Jeremy Roy
    •No. 33 overall: D Jakub Zboril
    •No. 60 overall: L Denis Gurianov
    •No. 79 overall: R Lukas Jasek
    •No. 88 overall: G Adin Hill

  24. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: Pocklington won Gretzky in a backgammon game.
    Little bit of luck there.

    Never say that to a Backgammon player. They are fiercely defensive about the skill in their game. It has never been my cup of tea though… Still looks like luck to me.

  25. Lowetide says:

    D:
    Hey LT,

    How would you compare the luck factor in McDavid versus the luck factor in that other kid who arrived in 1978?Can we agree that McDavid is close to 100% luck, and Gretz was a combination of both luck and some smart forecasting / strategy back in the day?What percentage do you think the luck factor was in the 1978 transaction compared to 2015?

    WG answered it perfectly I would only add that the NHL is a much bigger business now and that the league’s a lot tighter in terms of entry rules etc. McDavid was pure luck, and Pocklington got lucky but he was smart enough to insert himself into the situation.

  26. leadfarmer says:

    After McJesus the next three of our picks I’m guessing will be 2 dmen and a goalie, unless they trade a pick for a dman.

    There is some good players in this draft. Hopefully its closer to 1979-1980 drafts then 2003 other than McJesus. Can’t wait for DSFs posts that we should have drafted Eichel.

    MCJEESSSSUSSS

  27. Lowetide says:

    leadfarmer:
    After McJesus the next three of our picks I’m guessing will be 2 dmen and a goalie, unless they trade a pick for a dman.

    There is some good players in this draft.Hopefully its closer to 1979-1980 drafts then 2003 other than McJesus.Can’t wait for DSFs posts that we should have drafted Eichel.

    MCJEESSSSUSSS

    Haha! “Everyone knew Eichel was a natural center and McDavid would move to wing, and if you were taking a winger it had to be Crouse!”

  28. elgruntus says:

    ChiaPete has worked with MacT and Howsen as opposing GM’s. He already knows if they are worth keeping around. So..it can only be that our previous management team wasn’t as bad as we thought, or that Batman is still providing cover for his friends.

  29. leadfarmer says:

    Lowetide,

    And lets not forget Detroit’s 5th or 6th round draft pick that turns into a star, how could the “brain trust” miss him.

  30. D says:

    @WG – that is very true!

    @LT – thanks LT. I agree, don’t think a repeat of 1978 would happen in today’s NHL.

  31. godot10 says:

    Really?:
    It will be very interesting to see if the Oilers, under Chiarelli, will attempt to move higher with their second first round pick. It would be a strategic victory if they could get into the 6-9 range. The skill in that group is significant.

    The draft is deep, and it costs a fortune to move up on draft day. It is better to see what falls to you at #16, and then auction the pick off for the best proven defensemen in a trade.

    It is time to move the needle. There are cap strapped teams who will offer good players for that pick,

    There is a fierce urgency in the now.

  32. gr8one says:

    To me the issue isn’t whether Chiarelli is calling the shots our not, to that I’m certain he is otherwise he wouldn’t have taken the job.

    My fear is with him looking at MacT’s record and decision making history and seeing enough value to keep him in such a prominent role as his #2.

    His D is a disaster, the Nikitin debacle, seeing Scultz as a Norris candidate, giving Ference the term he’s getting.

    Some people say MacT improved the forwards…I say how so? By waiting until it was too late to bring in a Roy when my dog could see in the off-season that out C depth was awful. Btw Roy was an UFA that offseason. By not claiming Roy on Waivers but instead waiting to give up an asset to get him? Sure he brought in Perron, that was a good move…but how did that turn out? And keylets be honest, NOBODY saw the Pens collapse coming, when that trade was made the Pens were still a top contender for the Cup. Klink did not inrove our forward corps. Boyd Gordon was a no brainer, every oilogosphere blogger targeted him on a want list before he was ever signed, and even then some would argue he was overpaid, although I think he was worth it, but still hardly savvy GM’ing.

    Add in hiring a rookie cosch, the Skype firing of Kruger, letting Eakins do stupid things like Will Acton, the handling of Marincin, a clearly better option than Brad Hunt, not being able to identify his mistakes and stubbornly seeing players he brought in as being better than threy are, etc, etc, etc.

    His draftting is sketchy too…his first dradt seemed promising, but then…Liam Coughlin? Enough said there…

    I mean really…Chia sees enough value in that to make him his 2nd?

    That to me is a red flag to Chia’s judgement.

    I’m still optimistic and happy overall but this has definitely taken away from tha new car smell. It’s too soon to have to but one of those trees to hang off the rear view mirror, which is where MacT and Howsen should be being viewed out of.

  33. OilOnslaught "formerly Unicorns" says:

    ” last I hear MacT hadn’t mastered hypnosis or the mind meld”

    No but Lowe controls Kingsway with telekinesis. It’s imperative his offices are moved to a safe distance. Why do you think he wears 6 rings? Magnetism! Always an unfair advantage.

  34. pts2pndr says:

    I like the idea that Chia is going about changing the team under him in an organized manner. It would be IMO a egotistcal individual that would do a complete scorched earth change of personnel!
    MacT tried to acquire players his coach thought would help which explains the large number of ex Marlies and why Acton was kept up and Lander placed on waivers. I believe that the aquisition of Nickitin could be placed at the feet of Howson. MacT was guilty of trusting the judgement of the wrong people! His biggest failure was continuing doing the same thing and expecting different results! MacT did fix the OKC Baron problem and insisted on them playing the young guys after 2 years where the likes of Hamilton and Pitlick etc were assigned to OKC and left to warm the bench. Mr Eakins was responsible for the Marincin boon doggle as he was banished to OKC for going home over the summer instead of staying in Edmonton and working on his conditioning as Drisidal did. If they pick a head coach that is able to communicate with young players and not a Draconian Eakins type, this team should improve drastically with tha addition of a NHL goalie and one top four D.
    I believe we all have to give Chia time to get the train back on the tracks. You can’t fix in a day what was a wreck for years!

  35. godot10 says:

    pts2pndr:
    MacT did fix the OKC Baron problem and insisted on them playing the young guys after 2 years where the likes of Hamilton and Pitlicketc were assigned to OKC and left to warm the bench.

    This is NOT true. Prospects were not left to sit on the bench. Pitlick played when he wasn’t hurt. Hamilton was NOT competing for ice time with old guys, but with Paajarvi, Hartikainen, Omark, Arcobello, Tyrvainen, and Cornet…all first or 2nd year players in OKC.

  36. PerryK says:

    LT, I have a difficult time reconciling your ranking of Dergyachov (81), and what we saw during the WJC. Sure, he didn’t look at his best when Nurse owned him on the boards in that extended battle but the rest of the time and every other viewing he looked great. Let’s face it, there aren’t that many draft eligible players that would look good against Nurse!

    Please explain your thoughts on such a low ranking.

  37. gr8one says:

    pts2pndr,

    It’s a GMs duty to identify and acquire talent. Letting you’re coach talk you into Will Acton is not a positive as a GM.

    I’d give you the point you make about Howsen/Nikitin, but that’s not accounting for him giving up an asset to have sole negotiating rights and then overpay when there isn’t even anyone else able to bid to drive up the price. To me though…the most damning thing is calling Nikitin out on being out of shape but then continuing to steadfastly defend NN’s upside well after it became clear he is not ehat he thought/thinks he is.

  38. gr8one says:

    Oh…btw, the one guy who actually did more than anyone to improve the forwards(Nelson) is being rewarded by twisting in the wind.

    That’s not to say I want Nelson to be coach because my ideal situation is Babcock/McClellan wirh Nelson as their 2nd…we shall call him our OKC/Bakersfield whisperer.

    I only bring this up to make the point that this organization rewards the wrong damn people with loyalty.

  39. geowal says:

    So, not that it matters, but was Grapes advocating we go ahead and sign Nelson as coach? I didn’t quite get the dangling in the wind comment.

  40. gr8one says:

    geowal:
    So, not that it matters, but was Grapes advocating we go ahead and sign Nelson as coach? I didn’t quite get the dangling in the wind comment.

    In the sense that despite doing a very good job and everything that was asked of him very well he seems to be the only one with his future up in the air.

    They’re not saying he’s NOT going to be the next head coach, but it’s pretty clear he’s not, and then his future very much rides on what the new coach wants. Anyway you slice it, that can’t be a good feeling, whether he understands the circumstances or not, which I’m sure he does, but uncertain future=dangling in the wind.

  41. Frank the dog says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/ten-takeaways-from-babcock-s-media-session-1.272945


    3. Happy wife, happy life.

    For Babcock, he will lean heavily on his wife, Maureen, as the couple decides together what to do next.

    “I talked to my wife yesterday morning for the first time (about this) and everyone thinks Ken Holland’s the boss, but actually my wife’s the boss and that conversation didn’t go very well, didn’t last that long.”

    Why didn’t the conversation go well?

    “Well, it just got heated up pretty quick. Just one of those things.”

    =================
    Babcock: “I’m pretty much leaning towards going to Edmonton”

    Mrs. B ” Whaaaaaaaaat?”
    (Recovers) ” Not with me you’re not. That place sucks and that team sucks. They’re serial coach killers and you really you’ll succeed where all those coaches have failed?”

    Bab: Well they’ve moved Lowe off to the side, Nicholson’s still there, and Chia’s the POHO now. And they won the lottery for Connor”

    “Well I’m not going with, so that’s final.”
    Heated discussion follows, Babcock sleeping on couch since then.

    Edit: Hello Todd McLennan?

  42. teddyturnbuckle says:

    I’m ok with Mac T staying on. Less likely that Chiarelli will make a stupid trade involving one of the kids. I keep waiting for the meteorite to come down before we draft McDavid.

  43. stush18 says:

    I still think we should trade down with our picks like mact did in 2013. We ended up with a very strong draft that year. With this draft being so deep, im going to keep recommending it.

    Trade 16 to arizona for chicagos 1st(24) and there 2nd(32)
    Trade 33 to new jersey for floridas 2nd(42) and devils 3rd(67)
    Trade 88 to philly for 98 and 99 overall
    1st-AHJ
    24-Ryan pilon
    32-Rasmus andersson
    42-Zack senyshen
    60-mackenzie blackwood
    67-alexander dergachev
    79-adam musil
    98-Callum booth
    99-Nikita pavalchev

    Now im just spitballing trade ideas here. But there has to be opportunity to gather more picks.

    This draft could set us up for the next decade if used properly. Every scouting draft ive looked at has a completely different draft after the top two. Players are being projected a round later than they normally would be because there are so many to choose from.

    I dont think you will be able to trade pitt pick for a top end dman. We are just as cash strapped as most teams, and without getting a look at the players, chiarelli wont be able to make a decision.

  44. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Lowetide: Haha! “Everyone knew Eichel was a natural center and McDavid would move to wing, and if you were taking a winger it had to be Crouse!”

    Now, now, now…for the record there is no doubt who the #1 pick in this draft will be.

    The problem I foresee for McDavid is that he is going to have a very big bullseye on his back and, if playing with the likes of Hall and Eberle, there will be no one on the ice to prevent the kid from getting mugged at every opportunity by the Perrys and Getzlafs of the world.

    When considering adding D this offseason, the Oilers should consider this since functional toughness (and I’m not talking about face punchers) will become an issue since the Oiler forwards are small and not at all physical.

    You can already see this dynamic in action in the Anaheim/Calgary series where the bigger and meaner Ducks are overpowering the small, speedy Flames…and the Flames are already bigger than the Oilers.

  45. PerryK says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Now, now, now…for the record there is no doubt who the #1 pick in this draft will be.

    The problem I foresee for McDavid is that he is going to have a very big bullseye on his back and, if playing with the likes of Hall and Eberle, there will be no one on the ice to prevent the kid from getting mugged at every opportunity by the Perrys and Getzlafs of the world.

    When considering adding D this offseason, the Oilers should consider this since functional toughness (and I’m not talking about face punchers) will become an issue since the Oiler forwards are small and not at all physical.

    You can already see this dynamic in action in the Anaheim/Calgary series where the bigger and meaner Ducks are overpowering the small, speedy Flames…and the Flames are already bigger than the Oilers.

    How about we play McD w/ Hall and (Iginla/Ward)?

  46. stush18 says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Now, now, now…for the record there is no doubt who the #1 pick in this draft will be.

    The problem I foresee for McDavid is that he is going to have a very big bullseye on his back and, if playing with the likes of Hall and Eberle, there will be no one on the ice to prevent the kid from getting mugged at every opportunity by the Perrys and Getzlafs of the world.

    When considering adding D this offseason, the Oilers should consider this since functional toughness (and I’m not talking about face punchers) will become an issue since the Oiler forwards are small and not at all physical.

    You can already see this dynamic in action in the Anaheim/Calgary series where the bigger and meaner Ducks are overpowering the small, speedy Flames…and the Flames are already bigger than the Oilers.

    Honestly i wanted us to finish second so we could draft eichel. He just seems like he would be more suited to play against the bigger western teams.

    I have to agree with this point. Signing a guy like downie would be prudent i think. He played that role with stamkos and has enough skill and speed to keep up with AHJ and hall

  47. pocession charge says:

    Frank the dog:
    http://www.tsn.ca/ten-takeaways-from-babcock-s-media-session-1.272945


    3. Happy wife, happy life.

    For Babcock, he will lean heavily on his wife, Maureen, as the couple decides together what to do next.

    “I talked to my wife yesterday morning for the first time (about this) and everyone thinks Ken Holland’s the boss, but actually my wife’s the boss and that conversation didn’t go very well, didn’t last that long.”

    Why didn’t the conversation go well?

    “Well, it just got heated up pretty quick. Just one of those things.”

    =================
    Babcock: “I’m pretty much leaning towards going to Edmonton”

    Mrs. B ” Whaaaaaaaaat?”
    (Recovers) ” Not with me you’re not. That place sucks and that team sucks. They’re serial coach killers and you really you’ll succeed where all those coaches have failed?”

    Bab: Well they’ve moved Lowe off to the side, Nicholson’s still there, and Chia’s the POHO now. And they won the lottery for Connor”

    “Well I’m not going with, so that’s final.”
    Heated discussion follows, Babcock sleeping on couch since then.

    Edit: Hello Todd McLennan?

    I doubt it. Have you ever been to Detroit? Some very lovely suburbs but the city is run down and ugly. The Babcocks have spent every summer in SK for the past 25 years. Their family is a one hour flight from Edmonton. The Oilers now have an amazing situation for him. More likely he told his wife that Detroit gave him a huge offer and she was not warm to it.

  48. godot10 says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    The problem I foresee for McDavid is that he is going to have a very big bullseye on his back and, if playing with the likes of Hall and Eberle, there will be no one on the ice to prevent the kid from getting mugged at every opportunity by the Perrys and Getzlafs of the world.

    1) Pouliot, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle should solve part of the bullseye target on McDavid.

    2) If the Oilers could get Shane Doan or Chris Stewart to play RW with Hall and McDavid would help.

    3) If the other team isn’t being nice, run Hall, McDavid, and Gazdic (like Semenko, Gretzky, Kurri) Or if it is only a middleweight pest, Hall, McDavid, Hendricks.

  49. hags9k says:

    Stanley 2018,

    Thanks for the reminder! Date night tonight but the PVR is now set to record. Should be a dandy.

  50. Marc says:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 2h2 hours ago

    I am told that Darnell Nurse played 35:53 in Game 5 and 31:44 in Game 4 vs Erie

    Wow.

  51. fuzzy muppet says:

    godot10: 1) Pouliot, Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle should solve part of the bullseye target on McDavid.

    2) If the Oilers could get Shane Doan or Chris Stewart to play RW with Hall and McDavid would help.

    3)If the other team isn’t being nice, run Hall, McDavid, and Gazdic (like Semenko, Gretzky, Kurri)Or if it is only a middleweight pest, Hall, McDavid, Hendricks.

    If they take liberies on McDavid, it will lead to penalties. McDavid will MURDER other teams on the PP.

  52. Yeti says:

    Woodguy: Do you think Chia is capable of evaluating the roster without mimicking MacT’s thoughts?

    There, I’m not sure.

    How much Chia will listen to MacT is the big unknown.

    Given that Chia is POHO and GM, my guess is that he has no trouble heeding his own council.

    Here’s the question: as the new GM, do you take ruthless decisions that expose the flaws of your now #2 guy (plus personal buddy of the owner) who had the job before you? If you buyout Nikitin, doesn’t that basically say to your second in command “you have little judgement”. Ditto Ference.

    Yes, Chiarelli is a strong presence, a strong mind. But now he is lumbered with an institutional inertia that clouds his decisions purely so the old boys club can remain together. Hopefully he can overcome that. Hopefully he will not shy from hard decisions that cast doubt upon the actions of his predecessors.

    But we all know deep down that just became more difficult. We all know that the MacT-Howson-Lowe triangle provides a core of institutional continuity that is unwelcome given the results of the last nine years.

  53. nelson88 says:

    Frank the dog,

    saw that article as well. Good read. Anyone know where his wife is actually from? Clearly Babcock is a big fan of SK and considers it home.

    Dug up a couple of old articles when trying to find out where his wife grew up. Gives a good flavour for why he is an outstanding coach who can “push” players and still be successful. Stand up guy with no bullshit attitude who will walk the walk and not just talk the talk.

    My guess is Detroit or Edmonton but ultimately he will stay in Detroit

    http://www.canada.com/reginaleaderpost/story.html?id=66d8db29-d40b-4e9b-8c3f-156129a721fb

    http://www.jthf.org/news/news_2005_47.asp

  54. OilOnslaught "formerly Unicorns" says:

    stush18:
    I still think we should trade down with our picks like mact did in 2013. We ended up with a very strong draft that year. With this draft being so deep, im going to keep recommending it.

    Trade 16 to arizona for chicagos 1st(24) and there 2nd(32)
    Trade 33 to new jersey for floridas 2nd(42) and devils 3rd(67)
    Trade 88 to philly for 98 and 99 overall
    1st-AHJ
    24-Ryan pilon
    32-Rasmus andersson
    42-Zack senyshen
    60-mackenzie blackwood
    67-alexander dergachev
    79-adam musil
    98-Callum booth
    99-Nikita pavalchev

    Now im just spitballing trade ideas here. But there has to be opportunity to gather more picks.

    This draft could set us up for the next decade if used properly. Every scouting draft ive looked at has a completely different draft after the top two. Players are being projected a round later than they normally would be because there are so many to choose from.

    I dont think you will be able to trade pitt pick for a top end dman. We are just as cash strapped as most teams, and without getting a look at the players, chiarelli wont be able to make a decision.

    If whomever gets the best player wins the trade, trading down in picks is like giving up the best player IMO.

    Draft picks out of the top 10 have such low odds especially if the parent team is stacked, they should trade up to get better quality even if it means less picks. The quality in this draft changes that a bit, but not like every player taken in the top 2 rounds is a can’t miss.

    And remember everyone rates a draft success as playing a few seasons, but 200 games and out means a player that couldn’t cut it, ie not a very good NHL player. I’d package up 4-7 and try to get a 2nd or 3rd. Two 2nds, or a 2nd and 3rd for a for a 1st rounder etc.

    The idea is to have a better chance at a player that can displace a roster player, who then can be moved, to help with cap management issues.

  55. hags9k says:

    godot10,

    I’ve always thought that at some point Hall might start to drop the gloves semi regularly and become an intimidating power forward himself. At what age did Iginla start beating people up? I don’t know it might never happen, and he’s just so skilled I don’t know if we would want him to, but the thought of Hall fighting from time to time is interesting, and more-so now that we’ve won the lottery…

  56. Yak2 says:

    If we actually manage to get McDavid, Roy, and Zboril with our first 3 picks, what a coup.

  57. Lowetide says:

    PerryK:
    LT, I have a difficult time reconciling your ranking of Dergyachov (81), and what we saw during the WJC.Sure, he didn’t look at his best when Nurse owned him on the boards in that extended battle but the rest of the time and every other viewing he looked great.Let’s face it, there aren’t that many draft eligible players that would look good against Nurse!

    Please explain your thoughts on such a low ranking.

    A couple of things:

    1. I don’t put a lot of importance on small sample sizes
    2. This isn’t the final list.

    I like him a lot.

  58. Dashingsilverfox says:

    fuzzy muppet: If they take liberies on McDavid, it will lead to penalties.McDavid will MURDER other teams on the PP.

    It’s not so much about taking penalties but, instead, it’s about imposing your physical will on players.

    If you’re watching the Flames/Anaheim series you’ll notice how hard Anaheim is finishing checks especially against Bennett, Monahan and Gaudreau.

    They’ve already taken Hudler and Ferland out and I expect more to follow.

    Both Hudler and Ferland are expect back tomorrow but I doubt they will be 100%

    Getzlaf, Perry, Maroon, Kesler, Etem and Beleseky are all big boys and they hit to hurt.

  59. Kmart99 says:

    hags9k:
    godot10,

    I’ve always thought that at some point Hall might start to drop the gloves semi regularly and become an intimidating power forward himself.At what age did Iginla start beating people up?I don’t know it might never happen, and he’s just so skilled I don’t know if we would want him to, but the thought of Hall fighting from time to time is interesting, and more-so now that we’ve won the lottery…

    If Hall wasn’t so damn injury prone, it could be interesting. But unfortunately it’s not worth the risk relative to the benefit.

  60. OilOnslaught "formerly Unicorns" says:

    fuzzy muppet: If they take liberies on McDavid, it will lead to penalties.McDavid will MURDER other teams on the PP.

    This is the ultimate antidote. If the other teams think they can get the Oilers off game by running CMD, even if they have to fight, it will encourage it. He is going to be very hard or impossible to stop when he’s on his game, they’ll try whatever they can to minimize the damage.

    If they don’t think they can get under Oiler skin and know a devastating power play awaits they’ll keep it to low level hacking which always happens to good players.

  61. Dashingsilverfox says:

    This what I’m talking about:

    Calgary Flames left wing Johnny Gaudreau was polite about being benched in the third period of a 6-1 loss to the Anaheim Ducks in Game 1 of the Western Conference Second Round on Thursday, but his coach spoke for him.

    Bob Hartley said after the game that he rested Gaudreau because he thought Anaheim was “taking liberties” with the rookie forward.

    Hartley said Friday that Gaudreau didn’t like being a spectator.

    “I believe he wasn’t OK with this when I told him early in the third period that he wasn’t playing anymore and I told him why he wasn’t playing,” Hartley said. “Johnny wants to be on the ice. As much as he’s not a big-size player, but my job as head coach of the Calgary Flames is to do what’s best for the organization in those times, and what was best last night was to keep him on the bench.

    “There was no sense exposing him out there. He’s a big-time player for us and we’ve talked about it with my partners between the second and third period that we all agreed that it was best for him. I was not surprised by his reaction. He was not happy.”

    At 5-foot-9, 150 pounds, Gaudreau seems vulnerable to a much bigger Anaheim team that plays a heavy game. Ducks center Nate Thompson was penalized for cross-checking Gaudreau in the second period in a snapshot of how vulnerable Gaudreau could be.

    Now, McDavid is bigger than Gaudreau but he’s still a boy that could easily be exposed.

  62. Rondo says:

    Who is the #4 D man in this draft after the big 3.

    Jeremy Roy, Thomas Chabot or Jakub Zboril ?

  63. Dashingsilverfox says:

    OilOnslaught “formerly Unicorns”: This is the ultimate antidote. If the other teams think they can get the Oilers off game by running CMD, even if they have to fight, it will encourage it. He is going to be very hard or impossible to stop when he’s on his game, they’ll try whatever they can to minimize the damage.

    If they don’t think they can get under Oiler skin and know a devastating power play awaits they’ll keep it to low level hacking which always happens to good players.

    That Canucks have been thinking that way about the Sedins for years.

    Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

  64. fuzzy muppet says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    There’s no doubt the Flames are over-matched.

    McDavid will be one one the best skaters in the league the second he hits the ice. You can’t hit what you can’t catch.

    They need a top-pairing defenseman(preferably with some snarl) a starting goalie, a Winnik type, and two more puck-moving Defenders. I think it can be done. The top-pairing defender is a MUST if they want attain any success

  65. OilOnslaught "formerly Unicorns" says:

    Dashingsilverfox: It’s not so much about taking penalties but, instead, it’s about imposing your physical will on players.

    If you’re watching the Flames/Anaheim series you’ll notice how hard Anaheim is finishing checks especially against Bennett, Monahan and Gaudreau.

    They’ve already taken Hudler and Ferland out and I expect more to follow.

    Both Hudler and Ferland are expect back tomorrow but I doubt they will be 100%

    Getzlaf, Perry, Maroon, Kesler, Etem and Beleseky are all big boys and they hit to hurt.

    The size thing doesn’t really matter much and is so often overstated as a problem in the west.

    Getzlaf and Maroon are big, but Maroon is immobile and a fringe NHL’er, Getzlaf rare. Perry is only slightly above average size/weight and Kesler, Beleskey and Etem are league average.

    It only works against Flames because they currently lack established elite players. They won’t be catching Toews and Kane or Hossa like that and it wouldn’t work anyway. What will matter is that Chicago is faster.

    Big almost always trades off with mobility and only matters if opponents are scared which most guys who can make the NHL aren’t. Doesn’t help the Blues any when it counts.

  66. OilOnslaught "formerly Unicorns" says:

    Dashingsilverfox: That Canucks have been thinking that way about the Sedins for years.

    Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn’t.

    They were one of the consistently best teams when their core was prime. It did work I would say, and they started the cheap play usually anyway IMO.

  67. Dashingsilverfox says:

    fuzzy muppet:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    There’s no doubt the Flames are over-matched.

    McDavid will be one one the best skaters in the league the second he hits the ice.You can’t hit what you can’t catch.

    They need a top-pairing defenseman(preferably with some snarl) a starting goalie, a Winnik type, and two more puck-moving Defenders.I think it can be done.The top-pairing defender is a MUST if they want attain any success

    Everyone gets caught eventually,

    I do agree that a top pairing D with “snarl” is imperative.

  68. Dashingsilverfox says:

    OilOnslaught “formerly Unicorns”: They were one of the consistently best teams when their core was prime. It did work I would say, and they started the cheap play usually anyway IMO.

    You just can’t rely on a PP to solve that issue.

    Vancouver’s PP rank in the last 5 seasons with essentially the same personnel:

    10/11 – 1st

    11/12 – 6th

    12/13 – 22nd

    13/14 – 26th

    14/15 – 9th

    There are always huge swings in PP effectiveness between seasons and having the best personnel often doesn’t translate to success.

    For example, you would think Chicago would have a lethal PP considering they can throw out Toews Kane, Hossa, Keith and Seabrook but for those same 5 seasons:

    4th

    26th

    19th

    10th

    20th.

    The bottom line is you have to win the game at evens or, chances are, you won’t win the game.

  69. Yeti says:

    Dashingsilverfox: I do agree that a top pairing D with “snarl” is imperative.

    We need a top pairing D with this kind of ruthless streak (and a marmot):
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=j3HntMTZX0Y#t=45

  70. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Dashingsilverfox: You just can’t rely on a PP to solve that issue.

    Vancouver’s PP rank in the last 5 seasons with essentially the same personnel:

    10/11 – 1st

    11/12 – 6th

    12/13 – 22nd

    13/14 – 26th

    14/15 – 9th

    There are always huge swings in PP effectiveness between seasons and having the best personnel often doesn’t translate to success.

    For example, you would think Chicago would have a lethal PP considering they can throw out Toews Kane, Hossa, Keith and Seabrook but for those same 5 seasons:

    4th

    26th

    19th

    10th

    20th.

    The bottom line is you have to win the game at evens or, chances are, you won’t win the game.

    appreciate in those PP numbers that one year was under Tortorella which just didn’t work, and one was a shortened season (where their 2nd line centre missed 2/3s of it)

    take away a coaching fiasco and shortened sample size and I see 1st, 6th, 9th

  71. Dashingsilverfox says:

    LadiesloveSmid: appreciate in those PP numbers that one year was under Tortorella which just didn’t work, and one was a shortened season (where their 2nd line centre missed 2/3s of it)

    take away a coaching fiasco and shortened sample size and I see 1st, 6th, 9th

    Yeah…shit happens…and that’s kind of my point.

    How do you explain Chicago’s variability?

  72. stush18 says:

    OilOnslaught "formerly Unicorns": If whomever gets the best player wins the trade, trading down in picks is like giving up the best player IMO.

    Draft picks out of the top 10 have such low odds especially if the parent team is stacked, they should trade up to get better quality even if it means less picks. The quality in this draft changes that a bit, but not like every player taken in the top 2 rounds is a can’t miss.

    And remember everyone rates a draft success as playing a few seasons, but 200 games and out means a player that couldn’t cut it, ie not a very good NHL player. I’d package up 4-7 and try to get a 2nd or 3rd. Two 2nds, or a 2nd and 3rd for a for a 1st rounder etc.

    The idea is to have a better chance at a player that can displace a roster player, who then can be moved, to help with cap management issues.

    If picks past ten have a low chance of becoming impact, then technically we should increase those odds as best we can, by shooting as many bullets into the fish barrel as possible.

    Normally there is a definitive ranking of sorts, and if a player is there that youre head over heels for, then take him.

    But please go ahead and pick the best player out of chabot, dermott, anderrson, pilon, meloche. Or out of bittner, gropp, senyshyn, etc.

    We cant. The players are so closely packed this year, with so many, that picking someone at 26 does not mean he will be better than 36. Normally, its a strong bet. But not this year.

    Play the odds. If there is no discernable difference, grab two instead of one.

  73. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Yeah…shit happens…and that’s kind of my point.

    How do you explain Chicago’s variability?

    your point was that top PPs are so inconsistent and used Vancouver to prove, I’m saying (at least) Vancouver’s variance can be explained otherwise

    I don’t know Chicago’s numbers, though I think I recall them going from near top of the league PK/PP to middling special teams over 2 years. I’m not disagreeing with your point on PPs, just don’t think Vancouver is fair to use as evidence

  74. frjohnk says:

    OilOnslaught “formerly Unicorns”: The size thing doesn’t really matter much and is so often overstated as a problem in the west.

    Getzlaf and Maroon are big, but Maroon is immobile and a fringe NHL’er, Getzlaf rare. Perry is only slightly above average size/weight and Kesler, Beleskey and Etem are league average.

    It only works against Flames because they currently lack established elite players. They won’t be catching Toews and Kane or Hossa like that and it wouldn’t work anyway. What will matter is that Chicago is faster.

    Big almost always trades off with mobility and only matters if opponents are scared which most guys who can make the NHL aren’t. Doesn’t help the Blues any when it counts.

    I agree.
    Chicago is one of the smallest teams in the league.
    They seem to do OK.
    Skill is more important than size.

  75. blainer says:

    Actually I think Hendy would be a great fit with Hall and CMD… That physical player to play hard on the boards and take care of anyone who takes cheap shots. Also has the ability to take a faceoff as well.

  76. Woodguy says:

    Re-posting GMoney’s spot on evaluation of the MacT #2 thing from the previous thread because of its awesomeness:

    You think it works differently anywhere else in business? It doesn’t. The classic “who you know, not what you know” applies everywhere.

    That said, I will draw your attention to another delightful dysfunction that, as a technology guy in the 80s and 90s, I got to witness on a regular basis from tech companies, here and in Sillycon Valley.

    1. Tech companies would put new staff through intensive training and apprenticeship programs for typically two years, then move them from trainee positions into positions of full responsibility – but refuse to promote them or give them salary raises commensurate with the change.

    Other smaller (smarter) companies therefore built entire business models on hiring those developers. Give them a modest raise over what the incumbents were offering and you had an almost unlimited supply of trained developers who were over the two year trainee hump, ready and able to contribute – and you didn’t have to invest a dollar or a an hour of reduced productivity getting them there.

    Moral of the story 1: someone with two years of on-the-job training is an entirely different animal from a rookie.

    Moral of the story 2: failure to recognize this creates an inefficiency that smart people can exploit.

    2. These companies would also regularly promote their best developers – the ones with technical capability out the wazoo – and eventually move them into management positions. Because that’s the way you recognize employee contributions, you promote them.

    The problem is, the result was that you move someone into a role for which they are utterly unqualified and didn’t enjoy. The vast majority of these folks were unsurprisingly terrible at management, and crashed and burned in a big way as a result. Many got fired.

    And now you had a brilliant programmer on the street, waiting to be scooped up by someone willing to recognize technical excellence and managerial incompetence are the rule, not the norm.

    Moral of the story 1: otherwise highly capable people will crash and burn if you put them in roles above their head. This is as true of employees as it is for players on the ice.

    Moral of the story 2: smart managers and businesses recognize that its not just about people or roles, its finding the right people for the right role.

    Moral of the story 3: businesses that fail to recognize this create an inefficiency that smart people can exploit.

    Moral of the story for the Oilers: the mistake is not in keeping MacT now that he’s been through his two year trainee period. It was hiring him in the first place. But firing him now because of stupid and arbitrary assumptions like ‘fire them all’ or ‘they’re all poison’ is more likely to be a stupid act, not a smart one.

    On a side note, the assumption seems to be that the only reason MacT is around is because of Katz’s loyalty to him and the OBC. This is contradicted by the fact that MacT was fired by the organization in 2009. Katz’s demonstrated loyalty is to Lowe. And Lowe is no longer part of the hockey-related org chart.

    As far as I can tell, Chia appears to be an intelligent and experienced hockey manager. He’s no doubt talked to each of the individuals in the organization and concluded that they may indeed have something valuable to offer, including experience with the organization.

    Given that he’s smart, he’s doing the first smart thing, which is keeping the incumbents but finding new, better suited, roles for them.

    The second smart thing he’ll do, and I fully expect this will happen, is that he will be assessing their performance in those roles. Some will excel. Some, maybe all, will not, and they will then be moved out and replaced with better people (in Chia’s assessment).

    This is all consistent with the behaviour of smart and successful organizations.

    Those braying for blood are confusing the pre-existing behaviour of the organization
    – keeping or even promoting people in roles even after they’ve demonstrated they are not capable in those roles with the new behaviour
    – finding the right roles for the right people, including demoting them if necessary
    – assessing them in those roles
    – and, I fully expect, replacing where an upgrade is needed, rather than blindly and reflexively removing them from the organization just because. It would not surprise me if this process starts within a month.

  77. Dashingsilverfox says:

    LadiesloveSmid: your point was that top PPs are so inconsistent and used Vancouver to prove, I’m saying (at least) Vancouver’s variance can be explained otherwise

    I don’t know Chicago’s numbers, though I think I recall them going from near top of the league PK/PP to middling special teams over 2 years. I’m not disagreeing with your point on PPs, just don’t think Vancouver is fair to use as evidence

    The most significant factor in Vancouver’s PP drop was losing Christian Ehrhoff on the point.

    And that kind of thing can happen to any team no matter how many elite forwards they can throw out there.

  78. frjohnk says:

    MIN
    CHI
    CGY
    NYR
    TB
    MTL
    were in the bottom 12 teams during the regular season in hits for

    WASH
    ANA
    were 9th and 10th in hits for during the regular season

    Being physical is a good trait for a team, but it is over rated.

    As a side note: the Jets are my second favorite team and I thought because they were bigger, faster and more physical than the Ducks, they would run over the Ducks defence which is not very big. But as the Jets would attest to, too much physicality ( especially in the last month and a half of the reg season) just enhanced the possibility of getting themselves injured and injured they were. By game 1, many of Jets were injured and basically useless.

    Apologies to Pouzar for mentioning the Jets.

  79. Dashingsilverfox says:

    frjohnk: I agree.
    Chicago is one of the smallest teams in the league.
    They seem to do OK.

    No they aren’t.

    EDM Top 3 Lines : 6’0-5/8″ 195.5 lbs
    CHI Top 3 Lines : 6’0-1/8″ 197.2 lbs

    EDM Top 6 D: 6’1-3/8″ 199.5 lbs
    CHI Top 6 D: 6’0-5/8″ 196.0 lbs

    EDM Top 9 FWD: 6’1-1/8″ 192.8 lbs
    CHI Top 9 FWD: 6’1-5/8″ 199.0 lbs

    Summarizing:

    Edmonton’s top 3 lines are 2 lb lighter and 1/2″ shorter than Chicago.

    Edmonton’s top 6 D are 3.5 lb heavier and 3/4″ taller than Chicago.

    Edmonton’s top 9 Fwd’s are 6 lb lighter and 1-1/2″ shorter than Chicago.

  80. sliderule says:

    I am pleased they are keeping Mact and Howson but only till after the draft.

    Chiarelli once he gets a chance to replace them with his people should do it.

    Do you want Mact to be giving his opinion on players like Marincin and Schultz?

    I would rather Chiarelli look at film and talk to Nelson and make his decisions.

    Oh,and the person they should be finding a place for In the organization is in my opinion Nelson.

  81. BustedSoulO says:

    In closely following the meanderings of my favorite team on blogs from A to Z, this is the only site that I have not posted on.
    Why?
    Simply put, because nobody here is an obvious idiot. I rarely get so annoyed by inane drivelings that I feel I have to get involved.
    Intelligent, well-informed opinions are offered and discussed in a less than barbaric manner. (usually)
    Refreshing in comparison.

    I’ve been a fan of this gloried organization since the WHL days.
    When I was old enough to break from the influence of my family, independently dislike both the Leafs AND the Habs, and look for heroes of my own choosing, I found my Oilers.

    When the Oilers practiced at Father Bonner Arena in ’79, ’80, ’81, and ’82, I attended the school that was attached to it.
    I cannot accurately remember how many short shiny games we played against them as they were leaving or arriving, but it was often and fun as hell.
    For the most part, they were only a few years older than us, and by ’82 it was “Game ON!”, full contact, I AM better than you hijinx. I used to hit the ice and go straight at Glen Anderson, and that smiling S.O.B. would keep that puck away from me until I had to full on tackle him! Good times, good times!
    I have a ton of stories from the heady years to follow. Great ones, sad ones, and things that prove and disprove many rumors. But suffice it to say, I love this team for what it has meant to me for more than four decades.

    I post here today because we are at an exigency in the historical trajectory of this team. A team that so many of us are so emotionally attached to.

    It is a cautionary post, and I hope it doesn’t offend anyone who takes the time to absorb its meaning.

    McJeeZus.
    Yup. Changes everything.
    Brings hazy indifference into sharp focus. Turns hopeful wants into urgent needs. Makes cosmic soothsayers out of tethered observers.

    “Danger, Will Robertson! Danger!”

    The best of what I’ve read over the last couple of weeks calls for changes that are unarguably required. The worst has been so annoying that, in a time when dancing should describe every step I take, I am feeling my blood roil at the insanity presented as absolutes.
    This crazed, headlong dash into the unknown must be reined in!

    Picture this, if you will:
    Oil Management, dressed in their most authentic old Western garb, runs into a darkened hideout in the Valley of The Summer Of 2015. Inside this hideaway are all the targets required to make the Oilers the absolute, most bad-ass-gang around these parts, for years to come. Not waiting for the eventual and assured light of the new day, they rush in and start blasting away in the dark, emptying their 6-shooters into the shadows within.
    When the light does arrive, AS IT ALWAYS DOES, the carnage is revealed…
    Lost in the undisciplined rampage were some elite forwards, that could have instilled the fear and respect needed over the next 5 years. Missed, a couple of sturdy defencemen that got away. A goalie, mistaken in the shadows for somebody else, was taken too soon and found to be wanting in actual, quantifiable talent – to the long-term detriment of the entire gang. Money wasted on the shots in the dark is gone forever, and will be needed moreso next year than this year.
    A lucky shot here and there, bagged them a useful hand or two, but nothing that could compare to what, in hindsight, was really needed and attainable… had they only been patient and waited for the light of the coming day.
    A tragedy, all in all.
    A foolhardy attempt at instant respect, that only backfired, and becomes a cautionary tale of “What a shame.” and “What could have been.”

    All allusion aside… If there has ever been a time in our history that demands caution, thoughtfulness, and sound decision-making, that time is now.
    Sit quietly in the corner. Eagle eyes on the targets in the room. Swiftly and accurately snipe the best of the best we can get, using the ammunition sparingly, for it’s going to be a long eight or nine years. Save some for when the ground before us is more clearly defined.
    Everyone knows we have to be better next year, but aiming to be the best is aiming too bloody high!

    Correct me if I am wrong, but:

    1) – Even average goaltending could account for a significant climb in the standings next year. – So, do NOT overpay for a has-been, or a might-be. Aim for solid. See what plays out next year, and count on targetting “Great” the following summer.

    2) – We have talent brewing in the defensive prospects. We have too much $h!t in the current defensive pairings. Top2 D-Men are expensive, rare, and just may be unwilling. – So, do whatever it takes to remove the $h!t from the fold. Aim for the most economical D-Men at the 300 game experience range that we can realistically get. And make the development of our prospects the new coach’s priority.

    3) – We have some very talented forwards comfortably in our arms. They are young and have never tasted success at the NHL level. They are about to be introduced to who could quite possibly be the best player in the league for the next decade. They are about to be coached by a man with clearly defined goals and proven steps to attain them. – So, trading them, this summer, is INCREDIBLY short-sighted. Trading awesome for maybe awesomer, not only sounds bad here, but is (historically) a bad idea anywhere!

    { – Can you imagine, in 1980, trading Glen Anderson, Lee Fogolin, Andy Moog and Jari Kurri, for Glenn Resch and Jerry Korab? Unproven for established? Right for wrong??? — For who? – Right. }

    Everybody needs to calm the hell down.

    We need our new GM to methodically research just exactly what he has in his hands. We need him to hire the coach most interested in being here. We need that coach to gather a staff he can trust. We need that team of directors to assess the type of players we have, decide on a team-style going forward, and begin the shaping of that identity. We need a year of noticeable improvement. And the year following could be the year for “Bold” and “Blockbuster”.

    If one more hack types: “You need to trade away talent to get talent!” I’m’a’gonna lose it!
    Giving away what we have for what we might want is what brought us to these last nine years!

    We all deserve to sit back and enjoy the next 16 months; laughing at the youthful blunderings, marvelling at the displays of raw talent dancing around the sheets of ice, and fantasising about the potential we get to watch grow into our new reality for a cool decade – if managed correctly.
    It is time to start feeling smug.

    We need to keep our powder dry, our cards to our vests and our actions “Clint Eastwood” cool.

    And then… Well, then we kill ’em all.

  82. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy: Given that Chia is POHO and GM, my guess is that he has no trouble heeding his own council.

    from the context I think you want him trusting his own counsel. Not his multi-ringed council

  83. Yeti says:

    Woodguy: Re-posting GMoney’s spot on evaluation of the MacT #2 thing from the previous thread because of its awesomeness:

    You think it works differently anywhere else in business? It doesn’t. The classic “who you know, not what you know” applies everywhere.

    This is simply not true. Smart successful organisations don’t act in this way. Connections and networks are indeed important everywhere. But they are not bigger than the organisation. The Oilers, in contrast, have a peculiar nepotistic setup that privileges a specific clan above the best interests of the organisation. I cannot believe that it’s possible to argue that having Lowe-MacT-Howson (who have orchestrated some abysmal management over the past 9 years) remain in positions of considerable power (and with tight relations to the owner) is a positive move. Continuity might make sense in some circumstances. But when you’re dealing with a decade of failure – failure that has never been punished – perhaps continuity is unwarranted? This triumvirate of suck remaining embedded in the organisation limits Chiarelli’s room to make moves and that’s a bad thing. Punto.

  84. gd says:

    BustedSoulO:
    In closely following the meanderings of my favorite team on blogs from A to Z, this is the only site that I have not posted on.
    Why?
    Simply put, because nobody here is an obvious idiot. I rarely get so annoyed by inane drivelings that I feel I have to get involved.
    Intelligent, well-informed opinions are offered and discussed in a less than barbaric manner. (usually)
    Refreshing in comparison.

    I’ve been a fan of this gloried organization since the WHL days.
    When I was old enough to break from the influence of my family, independently dislike both the Leafs AND the Habs, and look for heroes of my own choosing, I found my Oilers.

    When the Oilers practiced at Father Bonner Arena in ’79, ’80, ’81, and ’82, I attended the school that was attached to it.
    I cannot accurately remember how many short shiny games we played against them as they were leaving or arriving, but it was often and fun as hell.
    For the most part, they were only a few years older than us, and by ’82 it was “Game ON!”, full contact, I AM better than you hijinx. I used to hit the ice and go straight at Glen Anderson, and that smiling S.O.B. would keep that puck away from me until I had to full on tackle him! Good times, good times!
    I have a ton of stories from the heady years to follow. Great ones, sad ones, and things that prove and disprove many rumors. But suffice it to say, I love this team for what it has meant to me for more than four decades.

    I post here today because we are at an exigency in the historical trajectory of this team. A team that so many of us are so emotionally attached to.

    It is a cautionary post, and I hope it doesn’t offend anyone who takes the time to absorb its meaning.

    McJeeZus.
    Yup. Changes everything.
    Brings hazy indifference into sharp focus. Turns hopeful wants into urgent needs. Makes cosmic soothsayers out of tethered observers.

    “Danger, Will Robertson! Danger!”

    The best of what I’ve read over the last couple of weeks calls for changes that are unarguably required. The worst has been so annoying that, in a time when dancing should describe every step I take, I am feeling my blood roil at the insanity presented as absolutes.
    This crazed, headlong dash into the unknown must be reined in!

    Picture this, if you will:
    Oil Management, dressed in their most authentic old Western garb, runs into a darkened hideout in the Valley of The Summer Of 2015. Inside this hideaway are all the targets required to make the Oilers the absolute, most bad-ass-gang around these parts, for years to come. Not waiting for the eventual and assured light of the new day, they rush in and start blasting away in the dark, emptying their 6-shooters into the shadows within.
    When the light does arrive, AS IT ALWAYS DOES, the carnage is revealed…
    Lost in the undisciplined rampage were some elite forwards, that could have instilled the fear and respect needed over the next 5 years. Missed, a couple of sturdy defencemen that got away. A goalie, mistaken in the shadows for somebody else, was taken too soon and found to be wanting in actual, quantifiable talent – to the long-term detriment of the entire gang. Money wasted on the shots in the dark is gone forever, and will be needed moreso next year than this year.
    A lucky shot here and there, bagged them a useful hand or two, but nothing that could compare to what, in hindsight, was really needed and attainable… had they only been patient and waited for the light of the coming day.
    A tragedy, all in all.
    A foolhardy attempt at instant respect, that only backfired, and becomes a cautionary tale of “What a shame.” and “What could have been.”

    All allusion aside… If there has ever been a time in our history that demands caution, thoughtfulness, and sound decision-making, that time is now.
    Sit quietly in the corner. Eagle eyes on the targets in the room. Swiftly and accurately snipe the best of the best we can get, using the ammunition sparingly, for it’s going to be a long eight or nine years. Save some for when the ground before us is more clearly defined.
    Everyone knows we have to be better next year, but aiming to be the best is aiming too bloody high!

    Correct me if I am wrong, but:

    1) – Even average goaltending could account for a significant climb in the standings next year. – So, do NOT overpay for a has-been, or a might-be. Aim for solid. See what plays out next year, and count on targetting “Great” the following summer.

    2) – We have talent brewing in the defensive prospects. We have too much $h!t in the current defensive pairings. Top2 D-Men are expensive, rare, and just may be unwilling. – So, do whatever it takes to remove the $h!t from the fold. Aim for the most economical D-Men at the 300 game experience range that we can realistically get. And make the development of our prospects the new coach’s priority.

    3) – We have some very talented forwards comfortably in our arms. They are young and have never tasted success at the NHL level. They are about to be introduced to who could quite possibly be the best player in the league for the next decade. They are about to be coached by a man with clearly defined goals and proven steps to attain them. – So, trading them, this summer, is INCREDIBLY short-sighted. Trading awesome for maybe awesomer, not only sounds bad here, but is (historically) a bad idea anywhere!

    { – Can you imagine, in 1980, trading Glen Anderson, Lee Fogolin, Andy Moog and Jari Kurri, for Glenn Resch and Jerry Korab? Unproven for established? Right for wrong??? — For who? – Right. }

    Everybody needs to calm the hell down.

    We need our new GM to methodically research just exactly what he has in his hands. We need him to hire the coach most interested in being here. We need that coach to gather a staff he can trust. We need that team of directors to assess the type of players we have, decide on a team-style going forward, and begin the shaping of that identity. We need a year of noticeable improvement. And the year following could be the year for “Bold” and “Blockbuster”.

    If one more hack types: “You need to trade away talent to get talent!” I’m’a’gonna lose it!
    Giving away what we have for what we might want is what brought us to these last nine years!

    We all deserve to sit back and enjoy the next 16 months; laughing at the youthful blunderings, marvelling at the displays of raw talent dancing around the sheets of ice, and fantasising about the potential we get to watch grow into our new reality for a cool decade – if managed correctly.
    It is time to start feeling smug.

    We need to keep our powder dry, our cards to our vests and our actions “Clint Eastwood” cool.

    And then… Well, then we kill ’em all.

    Best post I have ever seen here. (and there’s been lots of great ones) My only hope is your name is Peter C.

  85. Магия 10 says:

    Yeti: Punto

    Try to hit the flesh of an argument not its penumbra before calling punto.

  86. pocession charge says:

    Dashingsilverfox: The most significant factor in Vancouver’s PP drop was losing Christian Ehrhoff on the point.

    And that kind of thing can happen to any team no matter how many elite forwards they can throw out there.

    Also Sami Salo. Absolute cannon of a shot.

  87. Yeti says:

    Магия 10: Try to hit the flesh of an argument not its penumbra before calling punto.

    Care to spell it out for me, o’ wise one?

  88. frjohnk says:

    Dashingsilverfox: No they aren’t.

    EDM Top 3 Lines : 6’0-5/8″ 195.5 lbs
    CHI Top 3 Lines : 6’0-1/8″ 197.2 lbs

    EDM Top 6 D: 6’1-3/8″ 199.5 lbs
    CHI Top 6 D: 6’0-5/8″ 196.0 lbs

    EDM Top 9 FWD: 6’1-1/8″ 192.8 lbs
    CHI Top 9 FWD: 6’1-5/8″ 199.0 lbs

    Summarizing:

    Edmonton’s top 3 lines are 2 lb lighter and 1/2″ shorter than Chicago.

    Edmonton’s top 6 D are 3.5 lb heavier and 3/4″ taller than Chicago.

    Edmonton’s top 9 Fwd’s are 6 lb lighter and 1-1/2″ shorter than Chicago.

    Not sure what you are talking about here.

    I said “Chicago is one of the smallest teams”

    Then you said, “no, they aren’t”

    And then contradict yourself proving that Chicago is one of the smaller teams using top 9 forwards and top 6 d, which by both metrics, Chicago top 3 lines are still below the league average

    Or are you just copying and pasting your responses 🙂
    http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2014/10/2014-15-nhl-teams-by-height-weight-and.html

    Whatever the case, Chicago is one of the smaller teams and are not very physical. They seem to do well.

  89. frjohnk says:

    As for Calgary going up against Anaheim

    -the flames are not a big team and during the regular season were not a physical team when looking at “hit for” numbers

    – the flames are not a very good possession team

    – except for a few players, the flames are not a very skilled team

    So for Calgary to have any chance against the Ducks if they stick to what they know best, they may have a chance against the Ducks.

    -riding a high unsustainable shooting percentage to win games

  90. kooler says:

    Is the other Connor deciding this weekend?

  91. Магия 10 says:

    Yeti: Care to spell it out for me, o’ wise one?

    gmoney did. pearls before whines.

  92. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks for re-posting GMoney’s post.

    It is exactly why I support the MacTavish retention.

    He has value and strengths that this organization can put to use.

    Throwing that away makes no sense.

    Finding a better role for him does.

    Hire smart people and put them in a position to succeed.

  93. RexLibris says:

    frjohnk: – the flames are not a very good possession team

    This is incorrect in so far as these words are unable to properly describe the extent to which the Flames’ are a poor possession team.

    😉

  94. Dashingsilverfox says:

    frjohnk: Not sure what you are talking about here.

    I said “Chicago is one of the smallest teams”

    Then you said, “no, they aren’t”

    And then contradict yourself proving that Chicago is one of the smaller teams using top 9 forwards and top 6 d, which by both metrics, Chicago top 3 lines are still below the league average

    Or are you just copying and pasting your responses
    http://mirtle.blogspot.ca/2014/10/2014-15-nhl-teams-by-height-weight-and.html

    Whatever the case, Chicago is one of the smaller teams and are not very physical.They seem to do well.

    You might want to look at the Chicago rosters than won cups.

    Bickell

    Burish

    Byfuglien

    Eager

    Ladd

    Handzus

    Hayes

    Carcillo (plays a heavy game)

    All very big boys.

  95. BustedSoulO says:

    gd,

    Thanx GD!
    lol
    But no, sorry man.
    Call me Reggie.

  96. A'bunadh says:

    Lowetide: There’s no way either player goes that low. I agree completely but didn’t want to cherry pick, and honestly if both were available at No. 16 I’d prefer other players.

    I understand your opinion on both Crouse and Zacha but I’m surprised you are dismissing the opinions of a large number of others on them.

    Crouse is ranked:
    5th by NHL Central Scouting
    5th by ISS Hockey
    6th by McKeens Hockey
    8th by HockeyProspect
    9th by Future Considerations

    Zacha is ranked:
    4th by HockeyProspect
    8th by NHL Central Scouting
    9th by McKeens
    10th by ISS Hockey
    13th by Future Considerations

    I haven’t seen exactly where Pronman ranks them but I’m sure its higher than 16th.

    I’d bet you a bottle of Cragganmore 12 that at least one of Crouse/Zacha is gone before 16 and with some odds I’d bet both are. I also think if one of them is still there at 16 there’s a good chance he becomes an Oiler.

  97. Marc says:

    Dashingsilverfox: You might want to look at the Chicago rosters than won cups.

    Bickell

    Burish

    Byfuglien

    Eager

    Ladd

    Handzus

    Hayes

    Carcillo (plays a heavy game)

    All very big boys.

    So when you posted the average height and weight of this year’s Chicago team to rebut the argument that the Hawks are small and good, you were actually referring to the Chicago team from five years ago, whose average height and weight you did not cite?

    A truly DSFian feat of logic and argument.

    Well done sir.

  98. OilOnslaught "formerly Unicorns" says:

    stush18: If picks past ten have a low chance of becoming impact, then technically we should increase those odds as best we can, by shooting as many bullets into the fish barrel as possible.

    Normally there is a definitive ranking of sorts, and if a player is there that youre head over heels for, then take him.

    But please go ahead and pick the best player out of chabot, dermott, anderrson, pilon, meloche. Or out of bittner, gropp, senyshyn, etc.

    We cant. The players are so closely packed this year, with so many, that picking someone at 26 does not mean he will be better than 36. Normally, its a strong bet. But not this year.

    Play the odds. If there is no discernable difference, grab two instead of one.

    The depth may be there until mid 2nd round this year, so what I’m saying is try to get more 1sts and 2nds with later round picks. I’d rather take a 1-2 firsts and 1-2 seconds than 7 picks 1-7. My theory is a better chance at a better player which has significant value in a cap league with limited player movement.

    Plus bringing in 7 guys isn’t possible anyway, players have to be dropped from the system. Less in, higher quality.

    EDIT: This may also help with development because they are more likely to succeed. The spent resources (money, time, coaching efforts) on these players paying off more often.

  99. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Marc: So when you posted the average height and weight of this year’s Chicago team to rebut the argument that the Hawks are small and good, you were actually referring to the Chicago team from five years ago whose average height and weight you did not cite?

    A truly DSFian feat of logic and argument.

    Well done sir.

    Well, the implied argument was that you can win with a small, skilled lineup and to some extent that is true but heavy teams would seem to be carrying the day more often than not.

    Darnell Nurse may change the equation somewhat but I don’t think it’s an issue the Oilers can ignore completely.

  100. Lowetide says:

    A’bunadh: I understand your opinion on both Crouse and Zacha but I’m surprised you are dismissing the opinions of a large number of others on them.

    Crouse is ranked:
    5th by NHL Central Scouting
    5th by ISS Hockey
    6th by McKeens Hockey
    8th by HockeyProspect
    9th by Future Considerations

    Zacha is ranked:
    4th by HockeyProspect
    8th by NHL Central Scouting
    9th by McKeens
    10th by ISS Hockey
    13th by Future Considerations

    I haven’t seen exactly where Pronman ranks them but I’m sure its higher than 16th.

    I’d bet you a bottle of Cragganmore 12 that at least one of Crouse/Zacha is gone before 16 and with some odds I’d bet both are.I also think if one of them is still there at 16 there’s a good chance he becomes an Oiler.

    I don’t disagree with any of what you’ve said, but my list isn’t meant as prediction for the draft. Bob McKenzie is the King of that hill.

  101. Ryan says:

    Woodguy,

    No offense to GMoney, but I almost feel like I read that before in a chapter out of a Malcom Gladwell book.

    I dunno, I am not quite in the ‘fire em all just to be safe’ camp… Yet, I think this dysfunctional management core has been in place for quite some time and has shown no ability other than how to scuttle the ship and win draft lotteries.

    New ideas and change? Sure, I’m all for it.

    Mact being #2 sort of reminds me of bring Scott Howson back…

    At the time, ostensibly it seemed reasonable based on my perfunctory appraisal. Has some experience as a GM, bright guy, another hockey mind… What could possibly go wrong? Nikki Nikitin say hello.

    GMoney, imagine a scenario in which your boss brings you into your office to tell you that you’ve been demoted and I’ve been given your job. Once, we get over laughing at this possibility since in truth I have no background in your line of work… You’re now working for me… Sure you may otherwise love your company, but how motivated are you going to be to provide me with good ideas to help me perform better in this role than you did previously?

    Is it more likely, perhaps, that you’re going to be angry with your company for the demotion.., pissed off at me for taking your job… And hoping like hell that I screw up?

    Winning organizations don’t fire their GM and then hire him as the AGM. The Edmonton Oilers do.

  102. A'bunadh says:

    Lowetide: I don’t disagree with any of what you’ve said, but my list isn’t meant as prediction for the draft. Bob McKenzie is the King of that hill.

    I misread your previous post. Was thinking you were meaning they wouldn’t be drafted that low, not that they wouldn’t drop that far.

    I am intrigued by the crazy variance in rankings in players in the 10-30 range amongst the various prospect sites. It will be interesting to see McKenzie’s list.
    Jeremy Roy is ranked 10, 14, 21, 22 and 29th (LT 15)
    Matthew Barzal is ranked 8, 10, 11, 11, 17th. (LT 7)
    Travis Konecny is ranked 10, 11, 12, 14, 20. (LT14)
    Miko Rantanen is ranked 7, 7, 12, 19. (LT 9)
    Thomas Chabot is ranked 12, 15, 16, 19, 21. (LT 34)

    I guess that just shows how much depth there is in this draft. It’s definitely going to be a crazy day with some interesting picks.

  103. Lowetide says:

    A’bunadh: I misread your previous post.Was thinking you were meaning they wouldn’t be drafted that low, not that they wouldn’t drop that far.

    I am intrigued by the crazy variance in rankings in players in the 10-30 range amongst the various prospect sites.It will be interesting to see McKenzie’s list.
    Jeremy Roy is ranked 10, 14, 21, 22 and 29th (LT 15)
    Matthew Barzal is ranked 8, 10, 11, 11, 17th.(LT 7)
    Travis Konecny is ranked 10, 11, 12, 14, 20.(LT14)
    Miko Rantanen is ranked 7, 7, 12, 19.(LT 9)
    Thomas Chabot is ranked 12, 15, 16, 19, 21.(LT 34)

    I guess that just shows how much depth there is in this draft.It’s definitely going to be a crazy day with some interesting picks.

    Yes, and for me it’s a matter of waiting until after the Euro info starts filtering in. There are about six defensemen who could go top 20 and then after that another half dozen who could go 20-40. It would be really is to list a guy at 40 and have him be one of the 20 best players.

    Barzal for me is a strong contender for top 10. I’d be shocked if he was available when Edmonton picked at 16.

  104. Ryan says:

    BustedSoulO,

    Welcome to the virtual libation room!

    I agree and think that the Oilers need to find adequate goaltending first, then look for an upgrade later all the while being mindful of the cap.

    I do think that Mact had the right idea with a short term overpay, just the wrong player in Nikitin…

    Ference. Schultz. Nikitin… You can’t ice a competing d corps with all three of these players in the lineup. I am intrigued to see what chia does to fix this mess.

  105. Lowetide says:

    WHERE are my manners? Right you are, Ryan. Welcome to the writing portion of the blog, Busted Soul! Well done!

  106. stush18 says:

    OilOnslaught "formerly Unicorns": The depth may be there until mid 2nd round this year, so what I’m saying is try to get more 1sts and 2nds with later round picks. I’d rather take a 1-2 firsts and 1-2 seconds than 7 picks 1-7. My theory is a better chance at a better player which has significant value in a cap league with limited player movement.

    Plus bringing in 7 guys isn’t possible anyway, players have to be dropped from the system. Less in, higher quality.

    EDIT: This may also help with development because they are more likely to succeed. The spent resources (money, time, coaching efforts) on these players paying off more often.

    Well i think that we would all rather have a couple extra 1sts and 2nds. But moving up is difficult, usually a two for one. I just think the depth in this draft is there so that you can trade down and still pick and equallt talented player.

    And we have 3 years to sign these players. I suspect the first 2-3 would be signed, and the rest allowed to play out there junior contracts. Our prospect pool is not over flowing.

    Stock it up this year, and next year when nikitin purcell gordon and acrivs are off the books, we can trade picks for eatablished players.

  107. thebiggestmanintheworld says:

    Why is Conor Garland not in the top 90?

    67 GP=35G 94A 129PTS for Moncton. (plus 66 PIMS. Not bad for a guy that is 5’8″ 163lbs)

    What am I missing?

  108. OilOnslaught "formerly Unicorns" says:

    Smart is overrated. Getting the job done is underrated
    I have known many high IQ people who are not very helpful or good at much more than being smart.

    Saying Howson has an eye because he can pick one of the best 10 players with the 4th pick is kind but really to be expected
    Peachy has manners and tact and as Oiler fans that has gone out of our lexicon.

    Peachy isn’t a fool so he won’t blow his own foot off firing everyone. I expect he’ll start letting those go he doesn’t mesh with.

    I think Babcock is coming. He doesn’t seem to piss around and if his goal is to be the best coach of his generation that won’t happen in Detroit. They needed to trade aging stars. I retract that I took him as smug.

    Playoffs next year friends!!!!!

    Oh, and WOoooooOoOOOOOOTT!!!!!!

  109. G Money says:

    BustedSoulO,

    Outstanding post. And welcome.

  110. G Money says:

    Innocuous comment awaiting moderation again. It is now clear: I am the new Smid!!

  111. G Money says:

    Yeti,

    In my uncountably many years of doing this, I have seen dozens, no word of a lie, multiple dozens of VP up to CEO level folks come and go in a variety of companies and divisions.

    Most of them were brought in to ‘fix’ something that higher ups wanted run better.

    Only one of them went truly scorched earth. Basically fired all of his new underlings almost on the first day, and brought in his own guys right away. He lives on in the annals of that company (NYSE:IHS, for which I used to run the Canadian division, an exceedingly successful company by the way, and not to brag too much but of which mine was consistently the most profitable division during my time there) as perhaps the worst executive hire ever. And that’s truly saying something, because there were a lot of those. This guy didn’t even last a year, and left the group in utter shambles. Very few of his hires survived either.

    (Side note: my situation was fairly unique as I was never actually hired – they bought my company and I stayed on – and I’m also one of those rare folks that made a successful jump from technology to management).

    In watching those many many executives come and go, there was a simple and consistent theme: the more impatient (I would say rash and petulant) the actions, the quicker they failed.

    Conversely, the few successful executives I’ve had the privilege to work with took the time to understand the whats and whys of the organization. Even in a badly failing organization, there are many more good people than bad people. Business is hard. Once they had a bead, they didn’t hesitate to make decisions about removing staff or changing things.

    But only after they actually understood what was working and what wasn’t. Those who come in and say “you guys suck, the way it worked at my old company was better, I’m going to do it that way and do it now” inevitably failed. Always. Without exception.

    I have moved on as a senior executive twice, and very explicitly taken that lesson with me. But that particular happenstance – rashness = failure – has remained a constant, no matter where I’ve gone.

    In fact, I took some pains in my post (which WG graciously complimented and reposted) to explain not just that lesson, but a number of other lessons learned.

    Perhaps your experience is different than mine. Maybe you have examples of executives coming into an organization and going scorched earth the first day and being successful at it. If so, I would certainly appreciate hearing about how that worked. That will be an interesting learning experience, because as I’ve taken some pains to detail, my personal experience is absolutely and unequivocally the opposite.

    That said, I fully expect that there will eventually be blood shed. With a new sheriff in town, it’s inevitable. And MacT might still be a victim. But not until the new sheriff figures out who the good guys and who the bad guys are.

    For that reason, I am relieved to see Chia’s approach so far, because it is right in line with those whom I’ve observed to have been successful in similar situations.

    From my vantage point, his reputation coming in is as an intelligent, experienced, and successful executive – and to my mind, so far that clearly shows.

  112. G Money says:

    Ryan: GMoney, imagine a scenario in which your boss brings you into your office to tell you that you’ve been demoted and I’ve been given your job. Once, we get over laughing at this possibility since in truth I have no background in your line of work… You’re now working for me… Sure you may otherwise love your company, but how motivated are you going to be to provide me with good ideas to help me perform better in this role than you did previously?
    Is it more likely, perhaps, that you’re going to be angry with your company for the demotion.., pissed off at me for taking your job… And hoping like hell that I screw up?
    Winning organizations don’t fire their GM and then hire him as the AGM. The Edmonton Oilers do.

    You are absolutely correct, it’s a fairly unique situation. Doubly unique actually, because Chia hasn’t actually replaced MacT – he replaced Lowe as POHO. He just wanted the direct authority as GM as well, which has the effect of pushing MacT out.

    As for an old hand being pushed aside and having to report to a new hire.

    I have seen it, quite a lot. And you’re correct, it quite often ends up badly. Funny thing though – it’s usually obvious within a couple of days that its going to be that way.

    Once the shock and anger wear off, if resentment and butthurt live on – yeah, it’s not going to work out.

    But I’ve seen other cases where, once the shock wore off, the cold light of day made it clear that the decision was probably a good one. And the new role might just work out. And sometimes it did and sometimes it didn’t.

    Funny thing though – whether it worked out or it didn’t, in every case that I can recall, the company still ended up better off. If for no other reason that it sped up the learning curve of the new guy (no better way to understand why allegedly bad decisions were made than to talk to the guy who made them) and also that the old guy inevitably left on his (in a couple of cases her) own a while later, saving the company a bucketload of severance.

    And these were unquestionably winning organizations.

    YMMV, but I am more than happy that Chia is taking such a measured approach, because that’s the approach that I’ve seen win. The opposite is the quick loser. In this case, the winning approach includes Chia taking his time to determine what, if any, role that the incumbents may have.

    I fully expect heads to roll – but not until Chia has determined that those heads truly deserve to roll.

  113. BustedSoulO says:

    Lowetide,

    Thank you kindly, sir.
    Your blog, to me, has become the eye of the storm as of late. A place to gather my shredded wits before diving back into the sea of surreal.
    Your calmness through these days should stand as a lesson to trigger happy fans wanting it all right now.
    I luv your music themed Q&A posts, and thanx to you have been on an Allman Bros. kick for the last week!
    Dusty vinyl, but ain’t it funny how I still know all the words? (yet can’t remember my own garage code???)
    Anyway… Write on McDuff!
    See you in the storm.

  114. Yeti says:

    G Money: For that reason, I am relieved to see Chia’s approach so far, because it is right in line with those whom I’ve observed to have been successful in similar situations.

    From my vantage point, his reputation coming in is as an intelligent, experienced, and successful executive – and to my mind, so far that clearly shows.

    I hope you are right, GMoney. I sincerely do. But I’d be a lot happier if there was more of an effort to clean house here. It’s a typical Oilers mover. Bring in a new guy not to replace but rather supplement the same crowd. If this is a temporary move before Chia brings in his own crew – fine. But there’s nothing (and I mean nothing) in the last nine years to suggest that is the case. You mention that MacT was once fired. This is true, but his seat was simply kept warm and he was back in the organisational fold in a heartbeat, once he’d dealt with sickness and having received his MBA. The prodigal son returned as was prophesized! Now he’s back as #2. To be fair, I prefer him greatly over Lowe and Howson. But with both of those still in the organisation, the idea that MacT was needed for ‘continuity’ during a transition is overkill. This is about people who must be kept around.

    I respect your experience in the corporate world. I have long experience of a unique organisational setting in which people can’t lose their jobs, no matter how badly they perform. They are simply recycled around. You can bring in new talent – good talent – but the presence of underachievers is a drag on them. They have the ear of important people and you have to take them into account even if you don’t respect them.

    I repeat the question I posed earlier: can Chia really do things like buy out Nikitin and Ference which makes his new #2 look bad? Would not cleaning up after evident mistakes be a lot easier if the people who made those mistakes were not the core of his new team? Seriously?

    I hope your right, I really do. But I can’t help but feel if you’re going to clean house, don’t simply move the dirt into a new room.

    BTW, who here has tried Oban? I bought a bottle today, haven’t opened it yet… please tell me it’s good!

    Магия 10,

    Thanks for your input.

  115. BustedSoulO says:

    Ryan:
    BustedSoulO,

    Welcome to the virtual libation room!

    I agree and think that the Oilers need to find adequate goaltending first, then look for an upgrade later all the while being mindful of the cap.

    I do think that Mact had the right idea with a short term overpay, just the wrong player in Nikitin…

    Ference.Schultz. Nikitin…You can’t ice a competing d corps with all three of these players in the lineup.I am intrigued to see what chia does to fix this mess.

    The word “overpay” should never again be a part of the lexicon of Oil-speak.
    It wasn’t appropriate then, and it most certainly is not appropriate now.
    The time to swagger is now people.
    Whether or not we deserve to at this moment, we sure as hell better start portraying that attitude P.D.Q., if we want the rest of the league’s respect.

    Although I preach tender steps in the trade department, I wholeheartedly believe in being what you want to be. And that means swagger-time!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xdfeXqHFmPI

    Many believe that one of the problems of the last nine + years was that we tried too hard to emulate the Oilers of the eighties. On certain aspects, that is a fair criticism, but let me tell ya, when it came to “Swagger” those arrogant little $h!ts had it in spades, and yes, even well before it was due.

    You all could agree, that most of us are walking around giddy with the thoughts of what we’ll get to watch in the upcoming year(s!!!!!)… Now think for a second how giddy and excited Taylor, and Jordan, and Ryan, and Nail, and Oscar, and Leon, and Darnell are feeling about actually being on the ice for all of that.
    Now, think about trading one of them…………………………………………….
    Seems like a bad idea at this point in time, does it not?

    Ridding ourselves of Ference, Schultz and Nikitin, at almost any cost, does two very important things:
    1) Rids us of Ference, Schultz and Nikitin.
    2) Shows the whole league that we are The Edmonton Oilers, and WE’RE MAD AS HELL, AND WE’RE NOT GOING TO TAKE THIS ANYMORE!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jKy9sHgwefI

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