THE PROFESSIONAL

I think most Oilers fans want to see the team trade away the Pittsburgh Penguins pick for immediate help, but the quality in this draft is so deep it’s going to be a tough decision. If Peter Chiarelli is going to deal the pick, it must be as part of a package that will land a legit defenseman (or, and to a much lesser extent because of availability, a goalie) who is under contract or control for some time.

Let’s start with the type of deal Edmonton should be pursuing. Here are some fairly recent examples:

  • Anaheim Ducks trade 2014 1st and 3rd rd picks, Nick Bonino and Luca Sbisa to Vancouver Canucks for Ryan Kesler and a 2015 3rd round selection.
  • Ottawa Senators trade Jakob Silfverbeg, Stefan Noesen and a 2014 1st rd pick to Anaheim Ducks for Bobby Ryan.

Ideally the Oilers get a younger player like Ryan who can grow with the group and hang around for the good times. Among the defensemen who fit that description (but are likely unavailable) are names like Ryan McDonagh, Mark-Edouard Vlasic, Kevin Shattenkirk, Alexander Edler, John Carlson.

I think it likely Chiarelli will be looking at offers that include players with issues, like Dion Phaneuf and his crazy contract or a useful veteran with an expiring contract. It is there where the greatest value could come from the Oilers.

HARD TARGET SEARCH

As I understand the CBA (always a dangerous way to open a sentence) an NHL team may enter into contract negotiations with a player on a long term deal in the summer leading up to his free agency. So, after July 1, the Oilers could trade for Brent Seabrook and sign him (or Chicago could ‘sign and trade’ although that doesn’t happen in hockey) and for me he should be the target for Chiarelli.

  • Seabrook is a veteran
  • He’s righthanded
  • Any reasonable model of his career trajectory from now through the end of the decade involves several productive seasons
  • Chicago badly needs cap relief and may need to trade away multiple veterans for picks and useful youth.

seabrook boxcars and fancy

This is Brent Seabrook in a box, three years running. He’s an effective player in the role in which Edmonton currently uses Justin Schultz and would be a clear upgrade. A RH side depth chart on blue that included Seabrook and Mark Fayne is a veteran one and has clearly stated roles (Fayne would get the severe zone starts and tougher competition). I’m not sure where Justin Schultz would fit here but that’s for Chiarelli and the new coach to decide.

Seabrook also offers Edmonton a fantastic mentor for Oscar Klefbom, Darnell Nurse and Martin Marincin (depending on how the team proceeds next fall). Of all the options available, and I do know Seabrook turned 30 in April and has over 750 games on his resume, this is the one I think makes the most sense.

He isn’t young and won’t grow with the cluster, but should be highly productive for the next three seasons and those will be vital for the development of the young defensemen on this team.

PAYMENT

Chicago has real cap issues so Edmonton may have to take on more than one contract, with Patrick Sharp and Corey Crawford possibly in the mix for a trade.

Since this trade can’t be completed until after July 1, I think the Oilers are better off using next year’s first-round pick as part of the package. After that, the ‘Hawks would be looking for young, inexpensive talent and the Oilers have lots of it:

  • 2016 first-round selection
  • 2016 second-round selection
  • Nail Yakupov
  • Anton Lander
  • Justin Schultz
  • Martin Marincin
  • Bogdan Yakimov

What is a signed Seabrook worth? How much needs to be added to that first-round selection in order for the Chicago Black Hawks to accept the deal? Do Marincin and Lander have enough ‘established’ level of ability to offer real value in a trade this early in their careers? Does Justin Schultz have any trade value at all (my thought is no, but I’m willing to be convinced)?

I know the idea of giving up a signed Yakupov is noxious, but trading a winger and a pick for an established NHL veteran defenseman like Seabrook is probably a reasonable option at this time.

CONCLUSION

I like this plan miles better than doing the deal at this year’s draft and then hoping Seabrook will sign. If you’re going to make this trade, getting Seabrook signed is a mammoth part of it. Would you be willing to trade Nail Yakupov so early in his promising career?

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123 Responses to "THE PROFESSIONAL"

  1. Diesel says:

    I’m torn on the Nurse issue. All possible scenarios can be reasonably argued for and, as usual, have been articulately lobbied for here.

    Nurse is my favorite prospect. This was solidified during last year’s rookie camp in Jasper that I attended, afterwards which LT posted my player summary on Nurse. WJ’s and these OHL playoffs have just cemented my thoughts on him and his game. “Fuck you, pay me.”

    Naturally, I want him to step in to the show right away next year and help to smother the Calder conversation in Oil.

    To be honest though I do believe some time on the farm will do him a world of good. I don’t believe it’s as much a stepping stone issue for him in terms of speed, size etc., however. I think it’s a humbling and fire-stoking experience that is good for all (99%) players, regardless of past success or future expectations, to endure.

    It’s one thing to ride the bus (literally) with a bunch of hopefuls In your junior days, but it’s another to be inhaling that sour diesel smell, and finally escaping the engine drone just to walk up the bus steps and eventually realize that the scars and smiles on Jason Williams’ face aren’t quite enough to hide the pain in his eyes.

    Get your shot, never look back.

  2. Diesel says:

    I would like to see Seabrook’s WOWY’s related to Keith. Can anyone post this? I’m on my phone and the site is not very mobile friendly.

  3. anonymous says:

    Wouldn’t want to give up on Yak yet. Not without seeing who clicks with Mcdavid first.

    Don’t think you’d have too. Might be able to do it with a package including Marincin and maybe they take a chance on Shultz. Throw in picks.

  4. Lowetide says:

    2013-14

    57.4 with Keith
    53.1 w/o Keith
    52.3 Keith solo

  5. Lowetide says:

    2012-13

    51.0 with Keith
    53.6 w/o Keith
    54.8 Keith solo

  6. oliveoilers says:

    Arguably, the final nail in MacT’s coffin was writing off next year as developmental (coupled to his extreme bad luck in winning the draft lottery).

    If that #16 pick isn’t packaged up for help now, it could be seen as an unspoken admission of still developing over trying to be at the very least competitive now, no matter how deep this draft is.

    #16 OV is manna from heaven. Let’s not turn it into the poisoned chalice.

    Let’s also not make one of the classic mistakes. One is ‘never get involved in a land war in Asia’. Another is ‘don’t over covet your assets’.

    This was another bad habit by this organisation.

  7. Stud Muffin says:

    Not trading Yak. not a chance

  8. gr8one says:

    Oilers @ WC’s today.

    HALL 1G in progress.
    EBERLE 1A in progress.
    LANDER 1G 1A
    KLEFBOM 1G.

    I look forward to hearing Swedishposters comments on the Sweden game. Looks like our boys may have had a strong game.

  9. Hammers says:

    No I wouldn’t trade Yak . I would however trade Schultz and his the only one on your short list above . Why would you trade any of those other 3 . They and Yak all have potential to be players , long term on decent contracts . Seems to me they help feed that bottom 6 group of forwards .our 2016 first and Schultz should get us a top 2-3 D . Your goal for the next couple of years is to climb the table and position yourself for championships .Unfortunately Schultz has left himself with a bad rap, let alone a bad taste in the mouth . He and a first and say third should get you Crawford and Seabrook and there third. Key would be knowing Seabrook would sign .

  10. Cahoon says:

    From the title I thought this blog would be about Leon. It was still a good blog, but I love to hear about the German.

  11. gd says:

    I think Nurse is the Oilers most important prospect, and I think the moment he becomes a legit top 3 NHL Dman is the moment we will be a legit Cup contender.

    I hope Chia’s #1 offseason goal is to find a”Nurse whisperer”. Seabrook/Vlasic would be the gold standard, but I could see Beauchemin, Chara, Campbell, Dan Boyle, Streit, Paul Martin, JBo, or Toby Enstrom being attainable options.

  12. Ray says:

    Not sure Nail would appeal to Chicago. Their forward depth is already on the wings.

    I’d offer Marincin the 16th and Jultz. Then add some sort of conditional pick based on signing, maybe the 2017 first if Chicago is throwing a minor asset back. In this case the Kessler deal would be the model I’d use.

  13. Lowetide says:

    Cahoon:
    From the title I thought this blog would be about Leon. It was still a good blog, but I love to hear about the German.

    Leon’s RE is tomorrow.

  14. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Lowetide:
    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/showplayer.php?pid=285&withagainst=true&season=2014-15&sit=5v5

    55.2 with Keith
    49.2 w/o Keith
    56.5 Keith solo

    That 3 year run looks like a trend in the wrong direction. Is this the classic case of D hitting the wall at 30?

  15. oliveoilers says:

    anonymous,

    Stud Muffin,

    Hammers,

    Guys ‘n gals, this is starting to get into the realm of our 1st and the rights to Omark for Weber territory. Hawks will be hurting for cap space, true, but what on Earth would compel them to take a signed Schultz (who must be qualified @ $3m +) who has been terrible? I think Bowman could do better.

    On not trading Yak: Speculate to accumulate, my friends. You would be trading potential, not reality (he’s not a 40 goal scorer yet). Waiting to see what he’ll do with McDavid is moo if we’re leaking goals like that boat you got for a steal off kijiji.

    Persuading other GMs to take our dross isn’t like selling shit on the interwebs to idiots with too much money. These are sharp cats and are likely to have detailed reports into our very own Norris candidate.

  16. oliveoilers says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That 3 year run looks like a trend in the wrong direction. Is this the classic case of D hitting the wall at 30?

    When Chia took over in Boston, he filled the team with stop-gaps. Guys that were just supposed to be an improvement for a limited amount of time until something better either developed or was available. If these guys turned out to be keepers, then music! But really, only one did from PC’s first year: Chara.

    For the right price and term, Seabrook just has to be good enough for long enough. And his worst is a lot better than what we currently ice.

  17. Mr DeBakey says:

    Seabrook [and Petry] are my choices for D upgrades.
    But
    I’m not sure the Oilers want to long-term Seabrook just yet.
    The 30+ thing; lets see where he is at.

    Also, the Oilers have to remove at least two of Nikitin, Ference, Schultz.
    If its via buy-out – aren’t those before July 1?
    Shouldn’t the adds therefore be before July 1 as well? [at least some of them]

  18. VanOil says:

    Seabrook does not thrill me as a player. I am unsure if he would cover his acquisition cost as he has preformed well so far but was/is put in a position to succeed.

    Jultz not Yak should be the sweetener in any deal packaged with a pick.

    Pits 1st + Jultz for Adam Larsson and some futures. The veteran presence can be bought on the open market or distilled from the carcasses left on the team.

  19. Lowetide says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That 3 year run looks like a trend in the wrong direction. Is this the classic case of D hitting the wall at 30?

    It could be, for sure. The curve over three years isn’t going in a great direction and he does have 750 games behind him.

  20. John Chambers says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: That 3 year run looks like a trend in the wrong direction. Is this the classic case of D hitting the wall at 30?

    Even the 16 OV is too much for Seabrook, never mind the fact that the requisite 6-7 year extension at $5.5M + will be a boat anchor.

    McDonagh, Carlson, Shattenkirk, etc are a pipe dream – tgeir teams have no reason to trade them.

    Perhaps the best target is Bouwmeester. He’s more a #3, but the cap hit is reasonable and so is term. My guess is that it takes the #16, Habs 2nd rounder and Musil. The Oilers should be unwilling to part with Marincin, Lander, or Yakupov unless they’re getting a Marc Staal or Vlasic.

    The Chambers Plan has Bouwmeester added via trade and Martin added as a UFA.

    J Bouw – Martin
    Klefbom – Fayne
    Marincin – Nikitin
    Nurse – Ference

    May as we’ll ride out the Nikitin contract and buy out Ference after one more season.

  21. Hammers says:

    Let’s not forget Chicago isn’t in the drivers seat when it comes time to make trades . Yes they and a few other teams are going to be under the gun and doing any deal with them means trying to take advantage . The Oilers had best be thinking outside the box both with players signed, the good and bad contracts. If our first #16 and next years first are both in play what could that get you especially if part of the deal was attaching a Scrivens or a Nikitin . This team has to start looking at all options .

  22. Stud Muffin says:

    oliveoilers,

    Yak had 20 points in the last 28 games he is not a player you want to trade. Marincin a First and a second or prospect is a fair trade for a cash strapped team.

  23. Lowetide says:

    One thing I believe we have to be honest about is Schultz trade value. I don’t see him as being an asset with much trade value, because of his contract (he’s going to get paid unless EDM walks away) and his performance last season.

  24. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    oliveoilers: When Chia took over in Boston, he filled the team with stop-gaps.Guys that were just supposed to be an improvement for a limited amount of time until something better either developed or was available.If these guys turned out to be keepers, then music!But really, only one did from PC’s first year:Chara.

    For the right price and term, Seabrook just has to be good enough for long enough.And his worst is a lot better than what we currently ice.

    I fear the contract extension more than I fear the player’s regression.

    Seabrook is better and has more cache than, say Orpik.

  25. John Chambers says:

    Lowetide:
    One thing I believe we have to be honest about is Schultz trade value. I don’t see him as being an asset with much trade value, because of his contract (he’s going to get paid unless EDM walks away) and his performance last season.

    I imagine the only teams interested in Schultz are those who are rebuilding like Carolina or Toronto, and at best we could hope for a return of a 2nd rounder at best, possibly a 3rd.

    Perhaps you could make Schultz and Nikitin a package, taking back salary in return like Roman Polak, but in that scenario we’re probably sending Toronto a draft pick.

  26. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Seabrook’s next contract is going to look like Boychuk+. Oilers can’t afford that.

    I target Hjalmarsson and offer to take additional salary on long term in order to help incentivize Chicago.

    Would say Marincin + 16th overall + 2016 2nd + Purcell get you close to Hjalmarsson and Bickell?

    That’s 8.25m in salary coming in for 3+ years and 4.5 for a year and whatever Marincin signs for going the other way.

    Chicago probably looks to move Bickell, Sharp, Crawford and let Oduya walk before looking to deal Seabrook or Hjalmarsson but I like the controlled cap hit on Hjalmarsson much better. Yes he is a Lefty. That’s a cause for some concern but maybe he can slide over?

    Seabrook’s next contract is going to be in the seven years /50m range. Why would he settle for less when Boychuk got a monster deal?

  27. OilOnslaught "formerly Unicorns" says:

    There is an outside chance the Hawks see value in Jultz. They acquired Oduya IIRC when he didn’t look good by fancies at the time.

    They are familiar with lighter less physical D. They value puck movers and he ‘qualifies’ as that. Maybe Bowman thinks they can get him playing as he should be capable.

    Olive I think the evidence suggests many teams/GMs aren’t on top of things and are thinking about 20 years behind the times. Including the Oilers until a week ago hopefully.

  28. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Schultz has almost no value at his cap hit. Was a terrible contract from the start. To me the Oilers’ only play is to sign him for the same money and pair him with a proper vet this year to rehabilitate his value.

    The correct play is to probably sign him to a 3 x 3m contract (if it’s a multi-year deal the annual cap hit doesn’t have to be at his QO or higher right?) but I doubt Schultz’ camp accepts.

  29. TheOtherJohn says:

    Would love Burns but that would be s real longshot. Same age as Seabrook but way fewer miles. Wonder if you could get Hamhuis out of Vcr? Chiarelli has a very good relationship with Benning. He’d be a good bridge to the kids development

  30. Bryan says:

    An elite dman at #15 in this draft is likely to start contributing within two or three years at the latest and will likely be a valuable asset for many years. Nothing is a sure thing but I like the odds of finding something very special with this pick. A trade certainly won’t bring this type of player back. Get TCAF into pr work and buyout Nikitin and then bring back Petry and someone else similar and things start to look much better.

  31. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Hamhuis very unlikely to waive his NMC. Went home for a discount. He’s also 32 and his play has started to fall off the map sharply. I’d take him but wouldn’t offer much and the Canucks aren’t going to do us any favours. I’d probably look elsewhere.

    Edit – Love Burns but Sharks paid so much to get him I fear the cost. Same for Vlasic. Braun seems solid, too.

  32. oliveoilers says:

    Stud Muffin:
    oliveoilers,

    Yak had 20 points in the last 28 games he is not a player you want to trade. Marincin a First and a second or prospect is a fair trade for a cash strapped team.

    Well, I’m a Yak fan and would rather not see him traded, but that is a small sample size. With our strength on the wing and lack of it in D, trading away Marincin is folly at the moment, unless it’s a deal you can’t turn down.

    In an ideal world, we get Seabrook for nothing more than cap relief, or for all the players we don’t want. But if we don’t want them, what makes you think someone else does?

    Someone put the link up yesterday. Here it is again:

    http://www.tsn.ca/off-season-game-plan-edmonton-oilers-1.265721

    The bit about Marincin is how people outside the org not named MacT or Lowe view him. With our current circumstances and needs, I would be more loath to trade Marincin than Yak.

    And not forgetting: Chia loves him his lanky Slovakians.

  33. oliveoilers says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: I fear the contract extension more than I fear the player’s regression.

    Seabrook is better and has more cache than, say Orpik.

    Would Chicago paint themselves into a corner with $ and term. I think they already have….

  34. pocession charge says:

    Taylor Hall with a hat trick at the WHC today. One more period to go.

  35. VanOil says:

    Bryan:
    An elite dman at#15 in this draft is likely to start contributing within two or three years at the latest and will likely be a valuable asset for many years.Nothing is a sure thing but I like the odds of finding something very special with this pick.A trade certainly won’t bring this type of player back.Get TCAF into pr work and buyoutNikitin and then bring back Petry and someone else similar and things start to look much better.

    Agreed, but it is easier to give up something you never had, the pic, or never wanted, Nikitin. Old management were a lock to stick with both because they already had a Norris candidate.

  36. Chris says:

    The defense isn’t terribly difficult to fix. We need two defensemen. One of them because regrettably because MacTavish got rid of Petry which was extremely foolish. The other because we’re weak at the position, again which makes having traded away Petry extremely foolish.

    We have promising things on the left side with Klefbom, Marincin and seemingly Nurse dialed in hopefully for the next decade. Its the right hand side where at the moment we have Fayne and then garbage. The real trick for Chiarelli isn’t going to be finding defensemen to pay on the blue line its going to be disappearing Nikitin’s contract and Ference’s contract so we have the cap space to pay for two more vetran defenders and a goaltender.

  37. square_wheels says:

    oliveoilers,

    Chicago would be happy to fleece us with a solid depth dman in Marincin and a first round pick for an aging hard miles Seabrook. Love the player but the if he’s after a deal longer than 5/30M then we’re starting the same journey LA went on after their first cup. Dman north of 30 need careful research, the quicker/PP specialists have easier miles, Seabrook logs hard miles. Danger lurks.

  38. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    http://espn.go.com/blog/chicago/blackhawks/post/_/id/4687203/unsung-hjalmarsson-key-to-hawks-defense

    He’s younger and cheaper, and in my mind anyway as good or better especially in that shutdown role. I know he may cost a lot to acquire but I’m banking a little bit on Seabrook’s status as Keith’s partner as reason for Chicago to choose to keep Seabrook. If we can pry Hjalmarsson loose because we take on one more largish contract (Bickell) I go for it.

  39. Lowetide says:

    pocession charge:
    Taylor Hall with a hat trick at the WHC today.One more period to go.

    Nice goals all and he’s had a few more chances. A wonderful player.

  40. anonymous says:

    oliveoilers,

    I’m going on no contract extension. Depends on how bad Chicago wants to shed salary. #16, Marincin and picks doesn’t seem that far out there.

  41. square_wheels says:

    VanOil,

    Petry not being resigned is unforgivable, it’s still pisses me off. If he comes back I’d be shocked.

  42. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    square_wheels:
    VanOil,

    Petry not being resigned is unforgivable, it’s still pisses me off. If he comes back I’d be shocked.

    Especially when you look at the RHD free agent market. There’s plenty of lefties out there, but RHD who are capable are so scarce.

  43. D says:

    I guess I’m in the minority because I definitely would like the Oilers to keep the Pittsburgh pick. Also, the Oilers could very well be in their own cap difficulties in three years, and should be careful to take on other teams’ cap relief now.

  44. Marc says:

    It’s important not to overrate the value of the 16th pick. The three deepest drafts in the last 15 years were probably 2003, 2008 and 2010. Look at how the middle 10 picks from each of those drafts turned out:

    2010:
    1 elite – Tarasenko
    3 good/very good – Fowler, Schwartz, Bjugstad
    3 ok/good – Gormley, Hishon, Bennett
    3 busts – Campbell, Forbort, Watson

    2008:
    1 elite – Karlsson
    1 very good – Myers
    3 good – Del Zotto, Sbisa, Gardiner
    2 ok – Boychuk, Colborne
    3 busts – Beach, Teubert, Pickard

    2003:
    3 elite – Carter, Parise, Getzlaf
    3 very good – Seabrook, Brown, Burns
    2 ok – Bernier, Fehr
    2 busts – Jessiman, Nilsson

    Even if this is a in fact a deep draft (you can only ever tell for certain a few years down the road) , we can project that perhaps half of the players ranked 11-20 this year will turn into very good to elite players, maybe a quarter will be decent NHLers at best and a quarter will bust

    Is a fifty-fifty chance of a very good/elite player in 3-5 years really worth passing up on a good NHL player who can help next season?

  45. pocession charge says:

    Lowetide: Nice goals all and he’s had a few more chances. A wonderful player.

    Yes, especially the second goal. He made the German defender look like a pylon. It’s amazing what he can do when he’s healthy and playing with a guy like McDavid, er, Matt Duchesne.

  46. Lowetide says:

    anonymous:
    oliveoilers,

    I’m going on no contract extension. Depends on how bad Chicago wants to shed salary. #16, Marincin and picks doesn’t seem that far out there.

    I wouldn’t do that because there’s no contract attached. One year of Seabrook for No. 16 and Marincin would be very poor return imo.

  47. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL "Taking Photos",

    Sign me up for the Swede as well, and Bickell would slot in nice behind Hall and Poo. Can Bickell play RW, that would be ideal ?

  48. spoiler says:

    oliveoilers: Persuading other GMs to take our dross isn’t like selling shit on the interwebs to idiots with too much money. These are sharp cats and are likely to have detailed reports into our very own Norris candidate

    I have it on good authority that other GMs have no clue about our players and need world tours.
    😉

  49. misfit says:

    MacT didn’t write off next season, just like he didn’t promise to make a huge trade in his first PC (bold was the word everyone latched onto, but it should’ve been risk). He said it was an important developmental year. That’s very different than saying the plan is to do nothing and wait for our prospects to save the day.

  50. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    And his play in Montreal escalates his value the deeper they go.

  51. oliveoilers says:

    spoiler: I have it on good authority that other GMs have no clue about ourplayers and need world tours.

    Don’t we end up hiring everyone we give a tour to?

  52. RexLibris says:

    To begin with, I don’t move the Penguins pick unless it is somehow a deal that brings back Vlasic and doesn’t cost Yakupov, Klefbom or Nurse.

    But that isn’t likely to happen unless Wilson takes leave of his senses so…

    Yes, next year’s draft is where you start to deal from.

    That being said, I think Chicago looks like a good marriage on paper but less so up close.

    They are in cap hell but I think they can move Sharp and solve that issue for one more season before deciding on Seabrook.

    Wingers are more readily available than D, so finding a replacement for Sharp could be easier, at least to the extent of position played, than Seabrook.

    Calgary has LW prospects to spare and plenty of cap space. If they moved a prospect like Poirier and their 1st or a player and a pair of 2nd round picks for Sharp Chicago could skip along for one more season.

    Granted, the Pittsburgh pick will be at peak value when the draft board is sitting at 12th through 14th overall. Names start to fall and a GM somewhere gets the crazy idea he can move contracts for that falling prospect his scouts have ranked inside the top ten. But looking at the teams in the discussion, are any of them really offering something the Oilers need at a reasonable price, or would Chiarelli be selling short on an opportunity that has a much higher long-term payoff?

    Scanning the rosters of most cap-strapped teams or those without a 1st round pick this year, I don’t see a good example of the kind of deal that meets the Oilers’ needs that isn’t preferable to keeping the pick and pushing hard in free agency.

    Adding Ehrhoff and Martin as an example, while moving out Nikitin and Ference, then bringing in Niemi or Neuvirt, and making any auxiliary deals using the 2016 draft picks seems the better long-term bet here.

    Ken Holland used 1st round picks in trades in 2009, 2011, and 2012 and this year he said he can no longer continue that trend because the value simply isn’t there.

    The Oilers still have a very long road ahead of them and getting two picks in the top 30 this season is something that will likely have a greater impact relative to cost than trading it for an expiring, and perhaps declining, player asset that could be otherwise acquired, albeit on a weaker scale, through free-agency.

    I understand the arguments about the McDavid ELC window, but the addition of McDavid, Seabrook, and Niemi (to use those as examples) is not likely enough to make this team a contender in the Western Conference in and of themselves.

    The addition of McDavid, Ehrhoff, Martin, and Niemi likely accomplishes the same thing at a reduced cost both long and short term.

    It is the season after next that the Stanley Cup window will truly open, provided they can improve defense and goaltending, because of the maturing of the defense and center-depth.

  53. speeds says:

    Marc:

    Is a fifty-fifty chance of a very good/elite player in 3-5 years really worth passing up on a good NHL player who can help next season?

    There aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive. Is it better to trade a bunch for Seabrook, or to sign Franson*? I realize it’s not a given Franson would sign, but it’s not a given Seabrook would either.

    * Or whomever, I picked Franson for the sake of a name.

  54. gr8one says:

    I maintain there are good enough UFA’S this year that Chiarelli can acquire to upgrade our D enough to make us at worst a bubble team.

    I don’t believe we need to spend assets to upgrqde our team to make significant strides.

    Sign Neuvirth, Sekera, Franson, and Soderberg.(Ehrhoff, Green, et al…mileage may vary)

    Say bye to Nikitin and Ference and Purcell if necessary for cap coniderations.

  55. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    RexLibris,

    Yes, but how to actually get rid of Ference and Nikitin contracts? That’s the million dollar question. I think Purcell can be moved. He’s the least of the problems of those three but it takes two to tango and he may be the only movable cap hit of those three, depending on if Ference waives his NMC and Oilers retain salary or not.

  56. RexLibris says:

    Canada 10-0 up on Germany.

    All due respect to Hall, I think even Strudwick could get a hat trick in this game.

    On the penalty shot, of course.

    😉

  57. VanOil says:

    square_wheels:
    VanOil,

    Petry not being resigned is unforgivable, it’s still pisses me off. If he comes back I’d be shocked.

    I try not to think about Petry. His mishandling is in the top 3 worst screw ups of the post Pronger age.

  58. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    gr8one:
    I maintain there are good enough UFA’S this year that Chiarelli can acquire to upgrade our D enough to make us at worst a bubble team.

    I don’t believe we need to spend assets to upgrqde ourteam to make significant strides.

    Sign Neuvirth, Sekera, Franson, and Soderberg.

    Say bye to Nikitin and Ference and Purcell if necessary for cap coniderations.

    That’s probably 20 million in salary you’re taking on. All three you mention at 12.25 million would have to be moved out. That’s pretty close to my ideal scenario, too but it’s just not realistic. Those contracts are backbreakers. I think best we can hope for is two D and a G and call it a day. Anything beyond that with those salaries leaving then Chiarelli is a magic man

  59. spoiler says:

    Lol LT…

    Every year, when you spend all season studying prospects, you balk at trading assets at the draft. You would much rather they traded a pick of a draft you haven’t yet studied. You’re too close to the kids, man!

    I say do it at this draft… if only to spread the 1st rounders from year-to-year. And to save trade chips going forward.

    Is there risk? Sure. But it can be mitigated.

    1. McDavid… don’t know why Seabrook wouldn’t sign an extension here. Not to mention, all the Cup contenders are in cap trouble.

    2. Ask to speak to Seabrook’s camp ahead of the trade. Confirm the possibility.

    3. Sign him as early as you can, before he gets to play with any of our resident arsonists.

    4. If you’re still really concerned, ask for some insurance in the deal, a pick that reverts to Chi-town once he re-ups.

    Seabrook will be the guy. Here’s why:

    Chicago won’t want to dump BOTH Sharp and Bickell and leave gaping holes in their forward ranks. It will be hard for them to find cap friendly players in return anywhere near their ability. They will trade ONE of these two.

    Keith is the straw stirring the drink on the pairing and Bowman knows it.

    Hjarlmarsson’s contract is going nowhere.

    Crawford’s contract is nigh on untradeable and I don’t know if Bowman is comfortable with letting him go so soon. I can see it being his deal next summer.

    And Seabrook offers the greatest return.

    Bowman will want KBomb, straight up. That will be his starting point. Ours will be Marincin straight up. However a ready-to-sign Seabrook will be worth more than Slim Shady.

    Marincin is a perfect fit for Chicago in that he is cheap cheap cheap. I don’t know where they would find better value… doubt Winnipeg is willing to trade a Trouba for example.

    The 16th overall and Martian should get it done, that’s exceptional value for Bowman IMHO, but if you could make it Marty and the EDM 2nd rounder, then sweet.

    Using a pick from this year is important because they have greater value, and are more likely to get a deal done. Don’t wait till after July 1 when other teams have had a chance to clear space, or fail to solve their needs, or whatever, and thus have more teams competing for your prize.

  60. Stanley 2018 says:

    I’ve been surprised by the lack of talk about Johnny Oduya. He’s no Seabrook but he’d be a clear upgrade on Oilers top 4. Seems like the cheap and easy move for PC to trade for his rights and sign him. Problem is, Oduya doesn’t fit PC’s “heavy team” model. But an improvement, even short-term, none the less.

    Purcell, Nikitin, and Ference contracts are the bane of the team’s payroll. That said, 2 of ’em come off the books next year. I have no problem keeping Purcy around for 3rd line action, and if NN has any pride in his game he should be able to hold down the 5-6 role next year before he goes away. Either way, only way to get rid of them is take a bad contract back, which seems like a wasteful move considering all the work to be done here. An overpriced yet dependable 3-4 Dman might make sense, but that’s it.

  61. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    spoiler,

    I like your logic but I’m of the opinion Seabrook’s perceived value around the league is much higher than what you suggest. A signed Seabrook is going to cost quite a bit, I think.

    We shall see.

  62. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Stanley 2018,

    Oduya isn’t very good anymore. Hjalmarsson holds down the fort on that pairing. Caveat emptor whoever signs Oduya.

  63. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    spoiler,

    Also, Bowman signed Kane and Toews to those monster, crippling deals right. I’m genuinely curious. Are we sure he is smart enough to realize he should sell high on Seabrook and split up his golden top pairing and keep Hjalmarsson?

    Just asking the question. Seabrook’s perceived value to the Hawks is much higher to most people than Hjalmarsson. Does Bowman do the right thing here?

  64. Pouzar says:

    I can’t reconcile in my head how “some” say “can’t trade Yak” then they offer up Marincin like a party spliff. We need more Blue Bubbles in the Left Upper quadrant…not less.

  65. gr8one says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: That’s probably 20 million in salary you’re taking on. All three you mention at 12.25 million would have to be moved out. That’s pretty close to my ideal scenario, too but it’s just not realistic. Those contracts are backbreakers. I think best we can hope for is two D and a G and call it a day. Anything beyond that with those salaries leaving then Chiarelli is a magic man

    Fair enough…I’d be ok with 2 good D upgrades and a G.

    League average goaltending, a better coached team from the start, better roster decisions like not starting MM in the minirs and HS’ing Petry, an older, wiser Nuge, McDavid, an NHL ready Lander and a Roy or anither cheap maybe more defensively minded Vet C is doable.

    Don’t forget whatever salary that was spent on Fasth should be pretty close to a wash on whatever new goalie we get.

    Even if we send out assets to trade for a player like Seabrook we’ll still need at minimum one more D…maybe more if we send out a player like MM.

  66. speeds says:

    spoiler:
    Lol LT…

    Every year, when you spend all season studying prospects, you balk at trading assets at the draft.You would much rather they traded a pick of a draft you haven’t yet studied.You’re too close to the kids, man!

    I say do it at this draft… if only to spread the 1st rounders from year-to-year.And to save trade chips going forward.

    Is there risk?Sure.But it can be mitigated.

    1. McDavid… don’t know why Seabrook wouldn’t sign an extension here.Not to mention, all the Cup contenders are in cap trouble.

    2. Ask to speak to Seabrook’s camp ahead of the trade. Confirm the possibility.

    3. Sign him as early as you can, before he gets to play with any of our resident arsonists.

    4. If you’re still really concerned, ask for some insurance in the deal, a pick that reverts to Chi-town once he re-ups.

    Seabrook will be the guy.Here’s why:

    Chicago won’t want to dump BOTH Sharp and Bickell and leave gaping holes in their forward ranks.It will be hard for them to find cap friendly players in return anywhere near their ability.They will trade ONE of these two.

    Keith is the straw stirring the drink on the pairing and Bowman knows it.

    Hjarlmarsson’s contract is going nowhere.

    Crawford’s contract is nigh on untradeable and I don’t know if Bowman is comfortable with letting him go so soon.I can see it being his deal next summer.

    And Seabrook offers the greatest return.

    Bowman will want KBomb, straight up.That will be his starting point.Ours will be Marincin straight up.However a ready-to-sign Seabrook will be worth more than Slim Shady.

    Marincin is a perfect fit for Chicago in that he is cheap cheap cheap.I don’t know where they would find better value… doubt Winnipeg is willing to trade a Trouba for example.

    The 16th overall and Martian should get it done, that’s exceptional value for Bowman IMHO, but if you could make it Marty and the EDM 2nd rounder, then sweet.

    Using a pick from this year is important because they have greater value, and are more likely to get a deal done.Don’t wait till after July 1 when other teams have had a chance to clear space, or fail to solve their needs, or whatever, and thus have more teams competing for your prize.

    Can a better case be made against trading Marincin straight up for Seabrook than trading Marincin + 16OV for Seabrook?

  67. Woogie63 says:

    Oduya and Green as UFA and

    keep your draft picks. I think we will need a good player in 5 years!

  68. vinotintazo says:

    I wouldn’t count mcDavids full cap for next season, I believe he can have the $.975ish cap hit, and all his bonuses can carry over to the season after that, where nikitin, Purcell, Gordon are off the cap.

  69. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    Minus Franson, don’t think he comes back to the spotlight of Canadian hockey. Sekera was hurt bad enough some serious risk/reward has to be factored in the contract.

    Back to the Marincin topic, was there any discussion about his agent in this whole gain weight but do it at home in Slovakia vs Edmonton/Gary Roberts camp ?

    We’ve seen euro agents make odd choices for their young clients, I’d be interested in what he’s doing this summer.

  70. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Pouzar,

    I don’t want to trade Slim Shady. But Hawks will want something of value. Musil isn’t going to cut it. Tough call for sure and you better be right if and when that call is made.

  71. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    I watched Marincin and the Slovak team prepare for the WJ’rs in my wife’s hometown of Three Hills a few years back, have always seen him as our Hjarmolson. Vicious temper was evident back then, anyone else recall his repayment of that U.S. Forward ? I don’t trade him this year, I find him another Petry,…..god dammit I can’t believe we have to find another RHD.

    Green or Sekera are my UFA choices.

  72. Kmart99 says:

    Dave Dameshek had a brilliant draft lottery idea(for the NFL) but it translates to any sport.

    After the season is over, the bottom 6 teams(or bottom 2) play a round robin for the top pick.

    Upsides:
    -No team would ever want to finish last because they know they have to win the round robin after the season is over.
    -More hockey

    Downside:
    -Player’s association would bitch about adding more games.

  73. Marc says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    Pouzar,

    I don’t want to trade Slim Shady. But Hawks will want something of value. Musil isn’t going to cut it. Tough call for sure and you better be right if and when that call is made.

    The odds are very much against the player picked with 16th pick being better than Yak. They are also against that pick turning into a player better than Marinicin.

    That’s why I move the pick before I move either player.

    And if the price Yak or Marincin plus the pick, then I only do if we’re talking in their prime top pairing D on a decent contract.

  74. gd says:

    RE: Ference

    Does anyone know if there are any rules prohibiting a player from retiring and then being hired on as a $3.25 Million a year fitness consultant?

  75. Pouzar says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    Pouzar,

    I don’t want to trade Slim Shady. But Hawks will want something of value. Musil isn’t going to cut it. Tough call for sure and you better be right if and when that call is made.

    I agree with you on the Swede…he’s the target over Seabrook if we are going after the Hawks. A legit #1 D-man. That is the kind of package you have to give up but damn I would be reluctant to give up Shady.

  76. speeds says:

    gd:
    RE: Ference

    Does anyone know if there are any rules prohibiting a player from retiring and then being hired on as a $3.25 Million a year fitness consultant?

    Cap circumvention

  77. PeOiler says:

    Kmart99,

    Good luck getting the wiley vet to play his guts out in order to draft a kid who will take his job though.

  78. Kmart99 says:

    PeOiler:
    Kmart99,

    Good luck getting the wiley vet to play his guts out in order to draft a kid who will take his job though.

    Money solves that problem.

  79. Ray says:

    Any theories out there about a potential Saad offer sheet? That would likely seal the deal with Chicago having to trade Seabrook if they accepted.

    Not saying the offer would/should come from Edmonton, but it would be great to see another team be that bold.

    🙂

  80. LMHF#1 says:

    Kmart99:
    Dave Dameshek had a brilliant draft lottery idea(for the NFL) but it translates to any sport.

    After the season is over, the bottom 6 teams(or bottom 2) play a round robin for the top pick.

    Upsides:
    -No team would ever want to finish last because they know they have to win the round robin after the season is over.
    -More hockey

    Downside:
    -Player’s association would bitch about adding more games.

    No need. Have an open lottery for ALL the picks. Done.

  81. Kmart99 says:

    LMHF#1: No need. Have an open lottery for ALL the picks. Done.

    The idea is that you don’t get better odds by being the worst. But the league needs parity so you have to offer the reward to bottom teams only.

  82. Gret99zky says:

    If Ference, Nikitin, or Jultz are in the top 4 next season, would it be fair to say Chiarelli is listening a little too closely to “strong people with strong opinions”?

  83. Younger Oil says:

    At this point, I am fairly certain that every time someone suggests trading Marincin, a puppy dies.

    Save the puppies. Stop trading Marincin.

    There is a very, very good chance that Marincin AND the 16th pick in the draft will be better than a 30 year old Dman like Seabrook in 3 years time, and the pick will still be on an ELC, Marincin still likely a bargain contract, while Seabrook will steadily decline over the next 3 years (most likely).

    Seabrook will not be more valuable to the team than Marincin by the time this team is ready to compete for a Stanley Cup.

    If we’re talking about the NEXT Seabrook, then I can see the argument, you need to give quality to get quality after all. But this team doesn’t need another aging Dman who’s contract will be an anchor in a few years time.

  84. anonymous says:

    Lowetide: I wouldn’t do that because there’s no contract attached. One year of Seabrook for No. 16 and Marincin would be very poor return imo.

    It’d be a gamble on how well the year goes. If it goes well and you can get him to sign,great. If not you might be able to get the same value back at the deadline. Maybe.

    I’d rather go with someone signed like Bouwmeester. Couldn’t guess if he’d be cheaper?

  85. spoiler says:

    My Off-season Game Plan:

    Prior to June 1:

    1. Hire Todd McLelllan as coach. T-Mac, kind of like opposite MacT

    I think Babcock stays in Detroit if his wife is the decision-maker and he’s told her his career is irrelevant, it is all about her. Not to mention he might break the salary structure in the Oiler head office, which is already paying a bundle to people not doing the jobs for which they were hired.

    2. Offer Nelson $1.5M to associate coach. Give him an HC-out in his contract after 1 season. This is more than he would get as a first time head coach, so there’s a decent chance he would take it. Plus, McDavid.

    3. Piss off Matt O’Connor so he signs with Ottawa and not us.

    4. Sign Slepyshev.

    5. Sign Sean Burke as AGM. Let MacT know Burke is second in succession, equal in voice to MacT, so that MacT knows not to have the Oiler GM spot in his long term plans. Have Burke fix Scrivens too.

    …..

    At the draft:

    1. Draft McDavid

    I would like to give thanks to the Hockey Gords for sending us their son, a demigod, a hero, a warrior… our Achilles, representing the grief this tribe has endured.

    2. PIT 1st and Marincin for Seabrook. Shattenkirk would be my first choice, Pietrangelo my second, but Seabrook is the most likely to get done. Still, explore all options, but this is the max you pay.

    3. Draft Chabot, Andersson whomever is the best Dman available with EDM 2nd.

    4. Trade MTL 2nd and Ottawa’s choice of any player in AHL not named Yakimov, Chase, Slepyshev, Platzer, Betker, Nurse or Draisaitl for Craig Anderson. Dealing the AHL player increases value in the deal, but also keeps a handle on our 50 contract limit.

    5. Continue to draft, giggling every so often as you see McDavid walk by wearing his Oiler jersey.

    ……

    Post-draft/UFA Frenzy

    1. Sign Seabrook to 6 year $6.7M extension. This term buys 2 years of post-35 age which I think would make him easier to trade down the road if needed. Limited NMC… can’t prevent trade but can limit to 10 teams of his choice.

    This does not break the salary structure on the team; MacDavid will do that soon enough. Neither Hall nor Ebs have 2 Stanley Cup rings and over 700 games experience.

    2. Trade Ted Purcell to Phoenix for Shane Doan. We take on $800K in salary. Doan doesn’t have the wheels he used to, but Purcell never had them. Lose Purcell’s stickhandling ability, both decent passers, gain Doan’s meanness and physicality and willingness to pay the price to make a play. Good on cycle and in the crease. Only 1 year left on the deal.

    Doan is great protection and a great mentor for the Anointed One.

    3. Sign Daniel Winnik UFA. Last contract was $1.3M. $1.7 gets it done for sure, if you can get it done for less, do so. A couple or 3 years is not a tragedy.

    There’s a number of guys you can sign here similar to Winnik. He’s my choice because he’s a pretty decent passer, has a defensive conscience, and can play all 3 forward positions. We don’t need coverage up the line up so much because of Draisaitl sitting in Condorville., but Winnik can even do that for a game or two.

    If Doan goes down to injury, then Winnik can ride shotgun on the Conny Express. If Drai comes up after 40 games, Winnik can take Col. Klink’s spot. If Gordon is traded at the deadline, Winnik can fill there too.

    4.. See if you can get TOR, ARI, BUF to bite on either Schultz or Ference. This isn’t essential, as right now my plan is under the cap (don’t forget Seabrook is only at $5.8M for this year), but it would open a lot more options for fixing the D faster.

    5. If you can get dump Schultz, Sather will send you Dan Boyle for a song and a dance (so he can keep Yandle). Or go after a solid UFA. If you can’t dump Schultz, you play hardball on his contract and get him down to the Yak range.

    6. Tell Howson he has till Sept 1 to find an AGM position somewhere else. Keep this on the QT out of respect for Scott, but let him know come Sept 1, if he hasn’t found anything we have to let him go.

    7. Fire the pro scouts. Make decisions on Amateur scouts… MacGregor vs Gretzky especially.

    Run with:

    Pouliot–Nuge–Ebs
    Hall–McDavid–Doan
    Winnik–Lander–Yak
    Hendricks–Gordon–Klink

    Out of that top 9, each line has a grit player who can do the corner digging, help the cycle, go to the net, keep the run-your-show vultures at bay.

    KBomb Seabrook
    Nurse Fayne
    Nikitin Schultz/Boyle
    Ference

    Anderson
    Scrivens

    Each pairing has someone who can skate the puck out of trouble. This isn’t an ideal defense, but you might be able to get rid of NN at the deadline. If he is still failing early on, bring in Davidson or someone similar.

    Improve on Nikitin next summer. It’s a contract year for him and there are glimpses of a defenseman there, so there’s a chance he can be serviceable, if overpaid, for his remaining Oiler days.

    This team has a lot more physicality than recent Oiler squads. I think it will be playoff competitive, help might be found at the deadline, and as the Flames have shown, attitude can go a long way towards getting you into the second season. Doan and Seabrook go a long way to changing that attitude.

  86. oliveoilers says:

    Gret99zky:
    If Ference, Nikitin, or Jultz are in the top 4 next season, would it be fair to say Chiarelli is listening a little too closely to “strong people with strong opinions”?

    Either that, or he couldn’t give them away. Which I suspect is closer to the truth.

  87. spoiler says:

    speeds: Can a better case be made against trading Marincin straight up for Seabrook than trading Marincin + 16OV for Seabrook?

    Not to Bowman.

  88. Магия 10 says:

    Kmart99: The idea is that you don’t get better odds by being the worst. But the league needs parity so you have to offer the reward to bottom teams THAT FIRE THE GM only.

    Fixed. Relegation for GMs!

  89. Rational Zealot says:

    Trading the first round pick and Marincin for one year of Seabrook is a massive overpay. Massive.

    If you are trading a first round pick for a player, it has to be someone who already has term attached to him. One year of any player is not worth it, not even close. And you can’t trade for a signed Seabrook, such a thing doesn’t exist. And if you do sign him, there is no value at signing him to free agent prices.

    Terrible idea all the way around.

  90. Ray says:

    spoiler,

    I think your plan has too much time and energy spent on improving the forward corps that is currently the strength of the team.

    Nikitin or Nurse in the top four sounds too risky to start the year.

    The rest of the plan is top notch though.

  91. speeds says:

    spoiler: Not to Bowman.

    The Oilers don’t exist to make Bowman happy.

  92. spoiler says:

    Ray:
    spoiler,

    I think your plan has too much time and energy spent on improving the forward corps that is currently the strength of the team.

    Nikitin or Nurse in the top four sounds too risky to start the year.

    The rest of the plan is top notch though.

    The reason being is you have to wait to get Nikitin off the books. So do it incrementally.

    Edit: And as you can see, I am trying to dump Schultz and Ference to further improve the D, but I am also recognizing those moves are unlikely to happen.

  93. spoiler says:

    speeds: The Oilers don’t exist to make Bowman happy.

    I am totally not understanding you.

    I said the starting point for the Oilers was Marincin by himself, so obviously if that gets it done, we’re golden. But I think Bowman waits for another team to throw up a player and a 1st rounder before accepting that deal from the Oil. Wouldn’t you?

    It takes two to tango, so you have to put yourself in both GMs shoes, and accept that when we are discussing these deals, we don’t know at what point the trigger will be pulled. Neither do the GMs themselves going into the discussions.

    The whole range we are discussing is in my post. Marincin and PIT 16th is the max I give up. If that doesn’t do it, with any of the three Dmen I mention (and I might throw Staal in there too), I go after a lesser guy like Sekera in UFA.

    And trades generally occur when both sides are happy.

  94. thejonrmcleod says:

    I was thinking last night–I do that from time to time. I was thinking how the Oilers are said to boast great young talent—especially Eberle, Hall, and RNH. But it’s possible–I’d say likely–that the CHL trio of Draisaitl, Nurse, and McDavid is the better trio. Now we need to get Yak going. An embarrassment of riches.

  95. Dashingsilverfox says:

    speeds: The Oilers don’t exist to make Bowman happy.

    But the Panthers do.

    Former Blackhawks on the Florida roster…

    Brian Campbell

    Dave Bolland

    Brandon Pirri

    Jimmy Hayes

    Dylan Olsen

    I can see Tallon shipping one of his excess young centres or a D prospect to Chicago and getting both Sharp and Seabrook in return.

    Worth noting that Bowman and Tallon are both currently working at the Worlds with Hockey USA and I wouldn’t be shocked if they already have a deal in place to help Chicago with its cap issues.

    Tallon has done this recently when he sent Versteeg to the Blackhawks and kindly agreed to pick up half his salary so Chicago could fit him under the cap.

  96. Ray says:

    spoiler,

    While I agree the most realistic option is Nikitin and Ference still on the roster, if that is what you go with a think you owe it to the team to find a better partner for Fayne so to cover for the third pairing

  97. spoiler says:

    Ray:
    spoiler,

    While I agree the most realistic option is Nikitin and Ference still on the roster, if that is what you go with a think you owe it to the team to find a better partner for Fayne so to cover for the third pairing

    Then you are over the cap. You can’t find that puckmover for the $2.5M I am giving Doan and Winnik, and at least one of those two guys needs to be obtained (and solve the goaltending). So solve where you can solve. Jones & Ekblad handled second pairing straight out of Jr. Hamilton a year after. Nurse is 2 years in, he will be fine.

    Or play Nurse with Seabrook and give them the ZS push.

  98. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    spoiler: 3. Piss off Matt O’Connor so he signs with Ottawa and not us.

    Did I miss the part where O’Connor is now not desired by some?

  99. spoiler says:

    Romulus Apotheosis: Did I miss the part where O’Connor is now not desired by some?

    It’s to free up Anderson. So admittedly, that is probably the weakest link in my chain of reasoning.

  100. speeds says:

    spoiler: I am totally not understanding you.

    I said the starting point for the Oilers was Marincin by himself, so obviously if that gets it done, we’re golden. But I think Bowman waits for another team to throw up a player and a 1st rounder before accepting that deal from the Oil.Wouldn’t you?

    It takes two to tango, so you have to put yourself in both GMs shoes, and accept that when we are discussing these deals, we don’t know at what point the trigger will be pulled. Neither do the GMs themselves going into the discussions.

    The whole range we are discussing is in my post.Marincin and PIT 16th is the max I give up. If that doesn’t do it, with any of the three Dmen I mention (and I might throw Staal in there too), I go after a lesser guy like Sekera in UFA.

    And trades generally occur when both sides are happy.

    I think it’s likely CHI can find a home for other players (Crawford, Bickell, Sharp) before they have to move Seabrook. Unless they already don’t think Seabrook will sign a contract they are willing to sign*, in which case they might be proactive and move him now.

    CHI can also likely get more for Seabrook from another team than the Oilers should offer, IMO.

    I think you can make a solid case against giving up 4 years of Marincin for 1 year of Seabrook. And another solid case against giving up 4 years of Marincin for 1 year of Seabrook plus 6-7 years of Seabrook at his expected deal.

    * In which case the Oilers probably shouldn’t sign him (he is unlikely to be worth that expected contract going forward).

  101. spoiler says:

    speeds: I think it’s likely CHI can find a home for other players (Crawford, Bickell, Sharp) before they have to move Seabrook. Unless they already don’t think Seabrook will sign a contract they are willing to sign*, in which case they might be proactive and move him now.

    CHI can also likely get more for Seabrook from another team than the Oilers should offer, IMO.

    I think you need to address the reasoning in my post a little more closely. But I will go back over it…

    No one is taking Crawford’s contract. Retaining salary reduces the help to CHI. And they still have to add a vet goalie for coverage.

    Trading two forwards opens a gaping hole in their Forward ranks. Bickell would have to go without a player coming back to save enough. He’s the cheapest of the four.

    Keith is the river pusher on D.

    Seabrook is worth the most out of all those chips..

    Very few teams have a value contract player, with ability, they can afford to give up, like a Marincin. That PIT 16th is better than any other team would be willing to give up. I don’t see Bowman doing better elsewhere than Edmonton (But they might think they could if the deal is just Marincin). The cap-strung teams can’t trade for Seabrook, the cap spacey non-contender teams can’t re-sign him.

    Also, the whole post was conditional on signing Seabrook after the trade. If that can’t happen, no deal. Thought that was obvious in my original post, apologies if not.

    If FLA sends back a $2M forward for Sharp, and we send them Marincin for Seabrook, they are still right up against the cap. The players CHI can accept back in trade are quite limited.

  102. striatic says:

    i don’t understand why the Oilers would want a year of Seabrook or be willing to part with assets to get him.

    1. He’s essentially a free agent. You have to sign him and having negotiation rights won’t lower the cost, see Nikitin, N.

    2. He’s not that great. He’s a step up on most Oilers defenders but that’s not saying much. He has greatly benefited from being paired with Keith and I wouldn’t trust him not tobackslide if removed from him.

    3. He’s old. While not too old to produce, he’s been regressing year over year. Defenseman over 30 shouldn’t be the lynchpin of this team’s defense.

    4. He’s a “name”. He’s an Olympian who has won cups. He’s famous. This drives his price up without driving his value up.

    This sort of deal has more red flags than Soviet Army, Berlin, 1946.

    The Oilers need to be looking younger for potential top pairing D being held up behind elite D signed to long term deals. Guys like Ryan Ellis and Calvin De Haan [who we’re both drafted immediately after Pajaarvi but i digress]

    24 year old RFAs just starting to emerge. And don’t be afraid to deal back significant assets if you need to. Pick the right guy and as an RFA can be turned into a franchise cornerstone.You can’t pick up this type of player as a UFA so trading for them makes more sense.

    But a 30 year old quasi-UFA, no thanks. Just sign an actual UFA.

  103. speeds says:

    spoiler,

    I’m not convinced CHI can’t move Bickell and Sharp for picks/prospects, if they can’t maybe that changes things a bit.

    I also think that CHI is a prime destination for whichever F or two doesn’t get a long term offer they like, and if they are thinking they have to sign a 1 year deal somewhere for 1M, CHI looks like a pretty decent destination.

    If that doesn’t pan out, they could just play Teravainen more and play Panarin.

  104. spoiler says:

    striatic:
    i don’t understand why the Oilers would want a year of Seabrook or be willing to part with assets to get him.

    1. He’s essentially a free agent. You have to sign him and having negotiation rights won’t lower the cost, see Nikitin, N.

    2. He’s not that great. He’s a step up on most Oilers defenders but that’s not saying much. He has greatly benefited from being paired with Keith and I wouldn’t trust him not tobackslide if removed from him.

    3. He’s old. While not too old to produce, he’s been regressing year over year. Defenseman over 30 shouldn’t be the lynchpin of this team’s defense.

    4. He’s a “name”.He’s an Olympian who has won cups. He’s famous. This drives his price up without driving his value up.

    This sort of deal has more red flags than Soviet Army, Berlin, 1946.

    The Oilers need to be looking younger for potential top pairing D being held up behind elite D signed to long term deals. Guys like Ryan Ellis and Calvin De Haan [who we’re both drafted immediately after Pajaarvi but i digress]

    24 year old RFAs just starting to emerge. And don’t be afraid to deal back significant assets if you need to. Pick the right guy and as an RFA can be turned into a franchise cornerstone.You can’t pick up this type of player as a UFA so trading for them makes more sense.

    But a 30 year old quasi-UFA, no thanks. Just sign an actual UFA.

    Can understand your concerns, but here is my rebuttal:

    1. You have to confirm Seabrook’s willingness to sign an extension within a price range before dealing for him. That’s a mandatory condition to Bowman. I think Seabrook would be willing to forgo a few dollars to stay with an up and coming contender like EDM rather than get a full payday from a non-contender. The only fly in the ointment here might be Philly. Still pay him well, give him good term and control over his destiny with a limited NMC and I think he’s signable. But you need to confirm that first with his camp before entertaining trading any assets for him.

    2. “He’s not that great” and then you say, “Olympian with Cups”… So you know something Babcock, Yzerman, Chiarelli don’t? This team needs exactly that big game, playoff type experience. This is part of what you are paying for and not offered by say a Ryan Ellis.

    3. He’s not that old. His stats have actually improved over two years ago, so there’s no sign of this regression. He’s a very good skater and those guys tend to have longer careers. Other teams have managed quite well with Dmen starting their 30s, and have won Cups with them on their top pairing.

    4. One would think he would like more Cups. There isn’t a solid Cup contender out there that can offer him an overpay for his cachet. My offer still pays him very very well.

    In a cap world, guys like Ellis on value long term deals just aren’t available. If you can’t find that deal, then you’re stuck with the same old defense. Plus this team can use the experience Seabrook can offer. Go after one of those guys next year when Ference and Nikitin are off the books and if you fail you can still play in the UFA market.

    I don’t think there’s an “actual UFA” out there that can bring what Seabrook brings. And you’re in competition with other teams and might not get your targets. But we don’t have great perspective on this right now… usually May/June sees the UFA market shrink prior to July 1.

    That’s my thinking… Obviously YMMV.

    The other thing is that there is obviously more than one way to filet a fish. My plan above is my starting point. It’s by no means the only way. And if Ference or Schultz can be dealt, a lot of options open up.

  105. gd says:

    Personally I think it comes down to how good you think Seabrook is and how good will he be over the next five years.

    My feeling is he is as good a Dman as you are going to get on the trade market.

    He has been very durable and has been a top D man on the best team for the last 7 years and is still only 30.

    I just can’t see any other team that would have the right mix of assets, need for a top dman, ability to sign him long term that would give Chicago more and I don’t think there is any way they can sign him.

    I like Seabrook at $6mill a year, more than an injury prone, only one year younger, Sekera for $5Mill or a mediocre Franson for $5Mill.

  106. spoiler says:

    speeds: I’m not convinced CHI can’t move Bickell and Sharp for picks/prospects, if they can’t maybe that changes things a bit.

    I think I said in the case of Bickell they would have to. In the case of Sharp they would want someone better than a pick and then find a failed UFA–preferably a bridge kid with a good future that is still cheap is my guess. But even with that and Marincin and whomever cheap they find to replace Oduya (along the UFA lines you mention), they are against the wall… maybe still over.

    Trade Bickell and Sharp and you are plugging two unfamiliarities into their top 9, not saving as much space, and still wondering what Seabrook is going to cost, and still trying to fill Oduya’s spot.

    I think the better play for Bowman is to move Seabrook and save a forward and get more cap space and get more in return. Marincin and that pick is a pretty good incentive.

    Don’t know if Bowman feels the same way, but I’m making the call and telling him that I’m also talking to STL and NYR. See what happens. If it works, it works. If it doesn’t, we move on.

    I have often made the same arguments here on Bowman’s roster priorities that you are making today, Mike, so I totally understand your points. But the more I think of it, and the struggles he’s facing, the more I think there’s every chance Bowman could trade Seabrook. If it’s possible, I’d want to be in the conversation.

    There might not be a person on this planet as sad at the passing of Capgeek than Bowman right now.

  107. Heinz 57 says:

    In most of our discussions about management taint and the Detroit slow-cooker model of player development, we sound (for the most part) like a bunch of twisty-beard Catholic forefathers arguing the catechism cut-line back in fourth century CE, and for precisely the same reason: you can’t reasonably be proved wrong by any contemplated future outcome.

    In the case of management taint, we really don’t know what goes on behind closed doors, and—unlike the Cuban missile crisis—the documentation of the day is not held in abeyance for later release, a half century or so down the long and winding road.

    In the case of player development, we never run the experiment where we split two Henriks or two Daniels into A/B development paths, one slow and one fast.

    Thus, on both issues, we have navel gazing proclamations wearing both the red and the blue trunks (and the rainbow trunks, too).

    Will DSF’s fly-weight rabbit jabs ultimately do enough erosive damage (if water torture is good, mercury torture must be better), or will G Money’s hard and measured body-blows to vital organs eventually cut the tree down at the resplendent, pleated trunk tops?

    Stay tuned for the next exciting instalment.

    ———

    If we so much as had cause and effect sorted out concerning the Detroit model, we might muddle through to a viable conclusion/consensus, but I don’t think we even surpass that low bar.

    Did Detroit become slow and consistent because they were already good enough to make this work, or did they become good because they practised what became—many years later—recollected and revered as the patent-medicine Detroit model?

    Boy oh boy oh boy oh boy is it going to become easier to behave like Saint Do-It-Right Detroit with McJesus now bearing the organizational standard.

    ———

    Fortunately, there’s still plenty of hockey magic where clear thinking retains a seat at the table. In my increasingly time-constrained life, I just need to duck out of certain discussions, mainly the ones where the glass ceiling has the old-timey new car smell of musty metaphysics.

  108. spoiler says:

    I’ve monopolized this thread long enough, apologies everyone, but I’m going to bid you all adieu for the day. I’ve got some stuff to get done, then some hockey to watch and beers to drink. Have fun and I will catch up with the gang later!

  109. speeds says:

    spoiler:

    Trade Bickell and Sharp and you are plugging two unfamiliarities into their top 9, not saving as much space, and still wondering what Seabrook is going to cost, and still trying to fill Oduya’s spot.

    I think the better play for Bowman is to move Seabrook and save a forward and get more cap space and get more in return.Marincin and that pick is a pretty good incentive.

    I’m not sure CHI would be better off to keep Sharp or Bickell. Neither is likely in their long term plans, but Seabrook might be. If they think Seabrook will sign for ~6M, and are comfortable with that, why not just do what they can to keep Seabrook? The cap need not go up crazily after next season to make some room for things to breathe going forward, although it would be incredibly tight this year, particularly if someone signs Saad to an offer sheet.

  110. gr8one says:

    gd,

    What if the cost for Seabrook is MM+16th overall+?

    I think I’d prefer the UFA and the assets we don’t have to give up.

    I don’t think anyone thinks any of the UFA’s are better than a straight across comparison with Seabrook, that’s not reality though.

    I feel the only way that we start making big trades with multiple assets going the other way is it’s for a legit cornerstone D that is still young enough to fit with the cluster. Pietrangelo’s, McDonagh’s and OEL’s just aren’t available via trade, or the cost would be unaffordable and too big of a setback on other parts of the roster.

    Bring in UFA’s…insulate Klef, Nurse, MM, Schultz plus whatever high end prospects we get in this and future drafts. Bringing in good UFA’s prior to McDavid, Chia and the new coach wasn’t really an option, I think it is now, let’s utilise it.

  111. sliderule says:

    Younger Oil,

    I agree with your assessment.

    Connor is going to get the oilers in playoffs either next year or following.

    I don’t see them competing for cups until he is 21 or 22.

    Therefore build your team for playoffs by signing Ufas and use the so called best draft in years to bring in players to be with Connor when the oilers have to pay him a ton

  112. fifthcartel says:

    Louis Jean ‏@LouisJean_TVA 4m4 minutes ago
    Boston College UFA G Matt O’Connor talking to #Senators #Canucks #Rangers. Wants to work with goalie coach that will take him to next level.

    If the Oilers are out on O’Connor I wonder if this means they’ll look to sign Laurikainen?

  113. blainer says:

    striatic:
    i don’t understand why the Oilers would want a year of Seabrook or be willing to part with assets to get him.

    1. He’s essentially a free agent. You have to sign him and having negotiation rights won’t lower the cost, see Nikitin, N.

    2. He’s not that great. He’s a step up on most Oilers defenders but that’s not saying much. He has greatly benefited from being paired with Keith and I wouldn’t trust him not tobackslide if removed from him.

    3. He’s old. While not too old to produce, he’s been regressing year over year. Defenseman over 30 shouldn’t be the lynchpin of this team’s defense.

    4. He’s a “name”.He’s an Olympian who has won cups. He’s famous. This drives his price up without driving his value up.

    This sort of deal has more red flags than Soviet Army, Berlin, 1946.

    The Oilers need to be looking younger for potential top pairing D being held up behind elite D signed to long term deals. Guys like Ryan Ellis and Calvin De Haan [who we’re both drafted immediately after Pajaarvi but i digress]

    24 year old RFAs just starting to emerge. And don’t be afraid to deal back significant assets if you need to. Pick the right guy and as an RFA can be turned into a franchise cornerstone.You can’t pick up this type of player as a UFA so trading for them makes more sense.

    But a 30 year old quasi-UFA, no thanks. Just sign an actual UFA.

    Your point is a strong one indeed… I would like Seabrook for one year in order to help mentor the youngins. In a cap world that 16th pick on the draft floor represents MASSIVE value. I am torn between trading it for 1 year of Seabrook and just keeping it. NO WAY do I ever enter the idea of trading MM period. Maybe next years first would be a better idea. We HAVE to get rid of at least one of NN or Ference or we will continue to spin our wheels.

  114. czar says:

    More on Nurse and those other two guys from Matt.
    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=68397

  115. John Chambers says:

    Younger Oil,

    Totally agree with you.

    Trading one of our four best defensemen (Marincin) for a more expensive defenseman is a rotten idea. The plan should be to get both Marincin and Klefbom reliable defensive partners.

    Id like to see Shady and SexBom get signed to 5-7 year deals at low low cap rates. There is some risk to doing that, but if you got both under contract for a total of $4.5 M you’d create loads of cap room to add complimentary pieces in the coming years.

  116. gd says:

    gr8one:
    gd,

    What if the cost for Seabrook is MM+16th overall+?

    I think I’d prefer the UFA and the assets we don’t have to give up.

    I don’t think anyone thinks any of the UFA’s are better than a straight across comparison with Seabrook, that’s not reality though.

    I feel the only way that we start making big trades with multiple assets going the other way is it’s for a legit cornerstone D that is still young enough to fit with the cluster. Pietrangelo’s, McDonagh’s and OEL’s just aren’t available via trade, or the cost would be unaffordable and too big of a setback on other parts of the roster.

    Bring in UFA’s…insulate Klef, Nurse, MM, Schultz plus whatever high end prospects we get in this and future drafts. Bringing in good UFA’s prior to McDavid, Chia and the new coach wasn’t really an option, I think it is now, let’s utilise it.

    I don’t believe MM+2016 1st is that big a blockbuster. The 2016 UFA D market is looking even worse than this year. I like MM, I would love for the deal to be 2015 2nd + Davidson, but I don’t think that is going to get it done. I like the concept of everyone being in the same cluster, but I think we need one great D man to help Nurse and Klefbom maximize their development and move everyone down in the depth chart and I think Seabrook is the best option out there, (though I think JBo would be my second best option)

  117. AZOIL says:

    gr8one:
    gd,

    What if the cost for Seabrook is MM+16th overall+?

    I think I’d prefer the UFA and the assets we don’t have to give up.

    I don’t think anyone thinks any of the UFA’s are better than a straight across comparison with Seabrook, that’s not reality though.

    I feel the only way that we start making big trades with multiple assets going the other way is it’s for a legit cornerstone D that is still young enough to fit with the cluster. Pietrangelo’s, McDonagh’s and OEL’s just aren’t available via trade, or the cost would be unaffordable and too big of a setback on other parts of the roster.

    Bring in UFA’s…insulate Klef, Nurse, MM, Schultz plus whatever high end prospects we get in this and future drafts. Bringing in good UFA’s prior to McDavid, Chia and the new coach wasn’t really an option, I think it is now, let’s utilise it.

    Like Ehrhoff? How does he compare to seabrook? Older isn’t he? But more offensive no? I’d take a stab at him as UFA this year and Martin.

  118. striatic says:

    spoiler: 1. You have to confirm Seabrook’s willingness to sign an extension within a price range before dealing for him. That’s a mandatory condition to Bowman. I think Seabrook would be willing to forgo a few dollars to stay with an up and coming contender like EDM rather than get a full payday from a non-contender. The only fly in the ointment here might be Philly. Still pay him well, give him good term and control over his destiny with a limited NMC and I think he’s signable. But you need to confirm that first with his camp before entertaining trading any assets for him.

    If he wants to sign in Edmonton so badly, he may do so next summer as a UFA, joining a better team that hasn’t sent away assets in order to secure him.

    2. “He’s not that great” and then you say, “Olympian with Cups”… So you know something Babcock, Yzerman, Chiarelli don’t? This team needs exactly that big game, playoff type experience. This is part of what you are paying for and not offered by say a Ryan Ellis.

    Seabrook was selected for those teams as an “instant chemistry” companion to Keith. I don’t think the Oilers need that kind of experience and at any rate that experience is much easier and cheaper to acquire on the UFA market once you have a contending team. cart. horse.

    3. He’s not that old. His stats have actually improved over two years ago, so there’s no sign of this regression. He’s a very good skater and those guys tend to have longer careers. Other teams have managed quite well with Dmen starting their 30s, and have won Cups with them on their top pairing.

    I’m not saying he isn’t good. Seabrook is very good. He’s just not nearly good enough to justify the assets he will demand. He is a great fit for a current playoff contender in need of defensive stability with the cap space to take him on for a year to help them win a cup. If the Oilers were in that position then great, but they aren’t.

    4. One would think he would like more Cups. There isn’t a solid Cup contender out there that can offer him an overpay for his cachet. My offer still pays him very very well.

    The Oilers finished 3rd to last this year. He’d be a much better fit on a team like Dallas or San Jose who are closer to contending and need defence badly.

    In a cap world, guys like Ellis on value long term deals just aren’t available. If you can’t find that deal, then you’re stuck with the same old defense. Plus this team can use the experience Seabrook can offer. Go after one of those guys next year when Ference and Nikitin are off the books and if you fail you can still play in the UFA market.

    In a cap world, a team like Nashville cannot afford to keep Weber, Josi and Jones on long term contracts without cutting into the budget to acquire much needed offence. Ellis’ money can go toward signing Seth Jones for a very, very long time. The Islanders are a tougher fit but have Nick Leddy as a similarly aged, higher scoring option already signed for value, with fellow left shot D Griffin Reinhart knocking on the door in the AHL.

  119. gogliano says:

    Seabrook is in a position to get a big retirement deal. So a sign and trade is still probably taking Seabrook at UFA dollars or close to it for everything past this next year. There is also a good chance he is going to want his next big money contract to roll more than two years, which puts him in the McDavid post-ELC years.

    I don’t see a feasible deal for the two teams. One year of Seabrook at his present price is worth something to the Oilers but almost surely less than Chicago would want for him. A trade and long term extension might get Chicago more of a trade premium but there is a pretty good chance that Chia will regret paying dollars for a player who has excelled next to Keith and who is on the downslope of his career.

    I’d prefer smaller deals or UFAs. Or maybe Taylor Hall at LD?

  120. Das Zuke says:

    Should the Oilers consider trading Yakupov in a deal for a proven defenceman or goalie (two large gaps in the Oilers’ present group)? While I enjoy watching Yakupov’s effort and flashes of skill, I often get the feeling that he is difficult to play with (memories of Hemsky without Smyth… a great individual player but hard to find complimentary linemates). Yes he has had some limited success with Roy, but not outstanding. The Oilers have signed him to a very reasonable 2 year deal that might mike him attractive to some other teams without making a great financial investment. Without this contract, the return would not be very much as he is still unproven and he would not be worth trading. Package Yakupov with either the first or even the second round pick and Oilers should get a significant return for one of their high need areas.

    Secondly, with McDavid probably lining up with Taylor Hall, do you really think Yakupov would be the best fit with this duo? I think not! The line really would need another player to get the puck in the corners and retrieve it to either Hall or McDavid and yet be a threat if left alone. A great fit for that role is already with the Oilers, namely Leon Draisaitl. Before dismissing this suggestion, consider what Leon brings to the table… size, puck possession and control and awesome passing skills. I can see this being one amazing line. That could be together for years.

    Finally, if Yakupov does not fit on a line with Hall and McDavid…where do you play him? The third or fourth line? That will not work for either the Oilers or Yakupov. What do you think LT?

  121. Hammers says:

    Pouzar:
    I can’t reconcile in my head how “some” say “can’t trade Yak” then they offer up Marincin like a party spliff. We need more Blue Bubbles in the Left Upper quadrant…not less.

    Totally agree.

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