WHAT TO DO ABOUT NAIL

Peter Chiarelli’s job as Edmonton’s GM is to build a winning team. A big part of that will involve finding and keeping good players, and making sure they have reasonable contracts that offer value for the team. I’m currently writing an item for ON (should be up tonight) that involves the most likely players heading out of town, and had a helluva time with Nail Yakupov.

Yakupov just signed a value deal. $2.5M times two, that should offer this team good value for the next two years. I just wrote about Nail (here) so don’t want to go over old material, but thought it might be an idea to do a re-set and get your opinion. First, let’s agree that Peter Chiarelli’s arrival changes everything and that Yak could indeed be a player GM’s ask after during trade negotiations this summer.

How did the Oilers feel about Yakupov before Chiarelli? Well, they signed him to a good deal right after the season.

  • MacT: “No denying Yak has turned the corner. Our growth is going to be internal growth and incremental growth, and Yakupov is part of that. I don’t think it’s good strategy to trade developing players. Yak has been rewarded with a 2-year contract.” Source

The part about internal and incremental may have changed, but lordy do I agree about it being a bad idea to trade developing players. If the Oilers trade the Russian and another team hits jackpot, that’s a big damn deal. Young Nail’s development years, the tough years, were spent here as he learned the game at the NHL level. The progress MacT spoke about above came in 2015.

  • October-December : 0.80 5×5/60; 2.4 5×4/60
  • January-April 2015: 1.53 5×5/60; 5.38 5×4/60.

Sending him away now? Man that would hurt. However, is he the hill you die on? Let’s put it this way: WHERE do you draw the line in terms of Chiarelli trade chips this summer:

  1. No. 1 overall pick in 2015
  2. Taylor Hall
  3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
  4. Jordan Eberle
  5. Oscar Klefbom
  6. Darnell Nurse
  7. Leon Draisaitl
  8. Benoit Pouliot
  9. Nail Yakupov
  10. No. 16 overall selection in 2015
  11. First-round pick in 2016
  12. Mark Fayne
  13. Anton Lander
  14. Second-round pick in 2016
  15. Justin Schultz
  16. Boyd Gordon
  17. Matt Hendricks
  18. Martin Marincin
  19. No. 33 overall selection in 2015

Your mileage may vary, but here’s the question: Is Nail on the ‘insider’ or ‘outsider’ list? It’s a tough damn choice.

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91 Responses to "WHAT TO DO ABOUT NAIL"

  1. Mr DeBakey says:

    “I don’t think it’s good strategy to trade developing players.”

    That’s correct
    Traditionally the Oilers have waited until the player is developed to trade him.

  2. oliveoilers says:

    LT is your list from the POV of the OIlers or how other teams see it?

    I would think that this year’s second rounder would have more value than next years for other teams.

    And seeing how the list is subjective, I would put the picks above Yak for other teams, but I value the actual Yak more for us!

    Let’s also not forget the mythical 3-fer-1.

  3. hags9k says:

    Insider!

    Don’t trade any of these kids until we find out who gels with 97.

  4. VanOil says:

    No trade chips this summer:
    No. 1 overall pick in 2015
    Taylor Hall
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
    Jordan Eberle
    Oscar Klefbom
    Darnell Nurse
    Leon Draisaitl
    Benoit Pouliot
    Nail Yakupov
    Mark Fayne
    Anton Lander
    Martin Marincin
    No. 16 overall selection in 2015
    ——— Can Trade ——-
    Boyd Gordon
    Matt Hendricks
    First-round pick in 2016
    Second-round pick in 2016
    No. 33 overall selection in 2015
    —— Please Trade——
    Justin Schultz
    Nitikin

  5. oliveoilers says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    “I don’t think it’s good strategy to trade developing players.”

    That’s correct
    Traditionally the Oilers have waited until the player is developed to trade him.

    LOLZ!

    Correction; challenge him, then trade him!

  6. D says:

    Yakupov is my favourite player on this team. My line would be Mark Fayne and below, excluding Marincin. Any GM can trade a blue chipper and get value in return. It’s Chiarelli’s ability to build with “Jason Smith” type Glen Sather deals that will define his tenure as GM.

  7. Gordies Elbow says:

    Run the following lines:

    Pouliot-“Hopkins-Eberle”
    Hall-“McDavid-Yakupov”
    Draisaitl-“Lander-Purcell”

    Move Hall, Pouliot, and Draisaitl up and down the lines as needed, and the top two parings.

    Pouliot and Draisaitl are net presence, Hopkins and McDavid half wall. Yak alternates from wing to the point.

  8. GCW_69 says:

    I think that entirely depends on the return. Loui Erickson? No. Seidenberg? Too old. Pass. Adam Larsson or maybe Severson? Make the deal. Vasilevskiy? Done.

    I would rank the importance/impact by position on a team like this:

    1. Goalie

    2. Defence

    3. Centre

    4. Winger

    So, if Yak gets me a defender or a goalie of the right age and upside, I would do the deal. If the offer is a slightly better Ference, I would pass.

  9. Lowetide says:

    oliveoilers:
    LT is your list from the POV of the OIlers or how other teams see it?

    I honestly just used the Nuke Laloosh theory on it.

  10. gd says:

    I love Yak. I don’t think he is a hill you die on. I just don’t think he has the trade value to justify trading him away. We are a year away from having three elite playmaking centres and a sniper might be just what we will need. Forget that he is 1st overall pick and look at him as a fairly low cost cap hit 21 year old with lots of upside (and downside) risk.

    If a team like the Rangers or Devils gives us a huge overpay, or he helps get OEL or Seth Jones, then trade him, otherwise why bother.

  11. Really? says:

    I like how you have put this list together. The only potential change would be to place Nail Yakupov at #11 and the #16 overall in 2015 draft at #10.

    There are some doubts associated with Yakupov and whether he will ever live up to his #1 overall status. The beauty of the #16 overall in the eyes of the recipients is that this could represent a C, a RW, a LW, a D or a G. It all depends on what the team acquiring the pick needs. Furthermore, due to the depth of the 2015 draft, the #16 is more realistically a top ten pick in most draft years. Very valuable commodity.

  12. Woogie63 says:

    Stop trading Marincin lets see what we have at 200 games!

    Right now we have a great value contract, an interesting player and $3M ish in sunk costs

  13. Mr DeBakey says:

    gd: I just don’t think he has the trade value to justify trading him away.

    There is your answer.
    That about sums it up.

    Next thread!

  14. supernova says:

    For me everyone is available depending on the deal.

    Everyone. Yes even McDavid

    Maybe that’s because I have watched my two favorite teams part ways with Coffey, Gretzky, Messier, and in the NFL the packers continually cut people away even Favre and one day Rodgers.

    I would deal Yakupov straight up for Larsson in NJ, and I have been saying that since nearly the start of Dallas Eakins Reign of Terror.

    Aside from a deal for a young D man with good potential I don’t see a trade working.

    As a part of a package for a top a top 2?
    Where would that top 2 come from?

    Seabrook? ekman-Larson ? Vlasic?
    Would Marty & Yak be fair value for Vlasic? Hmm
    I am not sure. Part of me says yes part says no, would SJ take that deal? Part says yes parts says no

    I was told once young in my career in sales that In any good negotiation both parties feel like they gave to much but it was worth doing it?

  15. VanOil says:

    Jultz + No. 33 should get a real top 4 defenseman

    (elite is coming up in the system they just need stable partners to protect them)

    2016 1st should get a starting Goalie if you can’t get one in free agency

    Patrick Hersley or a middling UFA D can fill out the bottom pairing

    I don’t believe you can find a 3d line forward that will be better than Draisaitl on the left wing, so why bother.

    Pouliot-RNH-Eberle tough minutes
    Hall-CMD-Yak Hall is now a seasoned vet, give them a Shultz free defense, butter soft minutes
    Draisaitl-Lander-Purcell Drai might not score much from here but he will not give up much either
    Wagon line

  16. Stud Muffin says:

    It would kill me inside if Yak was traded. He’s just such a likeable person and player that to me is inside the cutoff

  17. Concur says:

    LT, Your earlier post(s) about value contract answers your question for you. Yakupov, Lander, Draisatl, Klefbom and Nurse are all untradeable. I also lump in Entry Level Contracts into that scenario… Well ELCs if they are playing in the NHL and not the AHL.

  18. pts2pndr says:

    All the young oilers have been Eakened (value decreased due poor performance with him as coach). It is imperative to allow their value individually and collectively to rise. Do not trade when their value is low. If Draisaital lights it up at he memorial cup and Jones was offered straight up I would do the deal.Nh Lander McDavid and Gordon give nice center ice group.I would keep last years nh line and godon line intact and play Hall with Lander and McDavid with Yak. Fill in the vacant wing spots at TC.

  19. GCW_69 says:

    If the Oilers are going to trade Marincin, at least have the good sense to Do the pump and dump. Give him easier comp and decent zone starts, like he should have got the last years for half a season or so.

  20. Pouzar says:

    Taylor Hall ‏@hallsy04
    What a feeling. #WorldChamps

    *photo with Ebs holding trophy and Hall holding a beer*

    Love it!

  21. ing316 says:

    Trades need to be made to be successful now and for the future while watching salary cap. To make successful trades you need to give some good assets that are good for that team while getting some good assets that are good for your team.

    To Boston: RNH, Eberle and Shultz. To Edmonton: Bergeron, Lucic and Hamilton. Boston gets what it needs with RNH and Eberle (trending up)with good contracts and Edmonton gets experience with size, grit and toughness along with a future top D man. Sign Lucic for 7 years (6 mill/year) and Hamilton (5 mill/year for 6 years).

    To NYR: 1st rd pick (16th) + Marincin + prospect. To Edmonton: Marc Staal and Talbot (sign 3 years for 3 mill/year). Rangers get a #1 pick like they want and a cheap upcoming defenseman + prospect and cap relief. Edmonton gets a good veteran defenseman and a goalie.

    To Vancouver: Boyd Gordon and Prospect. To Edmonton: Zack Kassian. Vancouver gets a depth center and prospect. Edmonton gets a gritty 3rd liner with size and low cost.

    Buyout: Nikitin
    Free Agent Signing: Soderberg (4 years at 3 mill/year); Franson (5 years at 5 mill/year).
    Trade: Ference and Purcell: Draft picks/prospects
    Lines:

    Pouliot Bergeron Yak
    Hall McDavid Lucic
    Kassian Drai Soderberg
    Henderson Lander Kinkhammer

    Franson Hamilton
    Klef Staal
    Nurse Fayne

    Talbot
    Scrivens
    Total Cap:~68 million

    This team would compete out the gate and adds size and grit along with talent. Down the road Drai, McDavid, Klef and Nurse will be signing for much higher amounts. When this time comes the money from Fayne, Bergeron Staal will provide the nessary funds and their replacements will come from the Farm System (like its supposed to). There is no way we can afford to pay for #1 center playing on the third line in the future nor can we afford to pay 4th line center 2nd line pay and #5/6 defense for #3/4 money.

  22. ashley says:

    Great list. I agree pretty much with the value ranking of the club’s assets.

    I would draw the line at 10. Anything below is reasonable to trade to help balance the roster. The assets above could be traded, but several are unlikely to deliver good value in return due to the team’s struggles negatively affecting the asset. Or they would at best return something similiar in value. The devil you know.

    I particularly like the idea of trading next year’s first rounder for 3 reasons:

    1) It might fetch a healthy return given the Oilers’ perennial bottom 10 finish.
    2) It would create some urgency with management to avoid a bottom 10 finish.
    3) It would signal to the fans that the rebuild is over. The focus is on winning, and winning now.

    We would be less likely to see experiments like bad goaltending, only 3 NHL defenders, and only 2 NHL centers go on until Christmas at which time we are all but mathematically excluded from the second season.

  23. Магия 10 says:

    Chia seems like a bright disciplined guy. So I would take him at his word. When he says his first step is to know what he has, I’d assume key developing assets are not leaving Edmonton before the trade deadline. Time to stand down the Yak alert. As noted before he watched a lot of games before moving out Bruins. And he has a lot of WC games to watch.

  24. rich says:

    VanOil,

    Looking at your list, Gordon will have the most value at next trade deadline if the Oilers are not in the race for a playoff spot.

    Would suggest you don’t trade next year’s #1 because IF they make the playoffs (and even if they don’t), you need to backfill the pipeline in order to have value contracts at some point when the McD cluster is producing.

    The #33 might yield the goalie you need, but nothing else on the list solves the problem the Oilers have on the blue line, JMHO.

  25. speeds says:

    ashley:
    I particularly like the idea of trading next year’s first rounder for 3 reasons:

    1) It might fetch a healthy return given the Oilers’ perennial bottom 10 finish.
    2) It would create some urgency with management to avoid a bottom 10 finish.
    3) It would signal to the fans that the rebuild is over.The focus is on winning, and winning now.

    We would be less likely to see experiments like bad goaltending, only 3 NHL defenders, and only 2 NHL centers go on until Christmas at which time we are all but mathematically excluded from the second season.

    Even if the Oilers were to trade their 2016 1st, they could still top 3/5/10 protect it in the trade.

  26. square_wheels says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    Something about that right side just doesn’t feel balanced, Purcell better come to camp knowing that his performance this year determines the rest of his NHL career.

    If there’s anyway we can package him for that C/RW I dream of that can shelter Hall/McD and take dzone draws.

    As for the Yakcity, nothing hurts more than trading a 1st overall, but Lordy do we need D. Bad enough I’d be listening to offers but it has to be a player that is at least an RFA.

    Spurgeon doesn’t have the pedigree but Larson could be the ideal target.

  27. blainer says:

    I see your point LT… Yak is difficult as to where to place in the line up. You CANNOT play Yak with CMD 5 on 5.. Absolutely over the moon about CMD but he looked lost a bit in the Dzone at times during the OHL playoffs. Putting him with Yak is a recipe for disaster and for CMD’s AND Yaks’s development.

    You must play CMD with Hall and a defensive winger. We’ll call him Winnick..Play Yak on the third line with Lander and Purcell. Playing Yak with CMD and Hall 5×4 is good tho. The team is very deep up front with Drai in the wings and CMD coming. I do see Yak getting traded with PC as the new GM… Let’s hope he gets it right…

  28. square_wheels says:

    Considering he turns 33 in July and had an awful post trade run in Chicago, would Vermette be a worthy mentor for the Hall/McD line ? It means we dump Teddy P but I suspect him and McD interchange the right side ?

    He’s at 3.75M now but the career is heading in the wrong direction and his offensive chops would get a huge push playing with those 2.
    He’s also interchangeable with Lander. Yak needs a vet and that vet has to be versatile enough to slide over to the right, down to the hard mins line and be a trade chip if we see LD emerge in a year or 2. Our C depth still needs seasoning.

  29. Dashingsilverfox says:

    square_wheels:
    Gordies Elbow,

    Something about that right side just doesn’t feel balanced, Purcell better come to camp knowing that his performance this year determines the rest of his NHL career.

    If there’s anyway we can package him for that C/RW I dream of that can shelter Hall/McD and take dzone draws.

    As for the Yakcity, nothing hurts more than trading a 1st overall, but Lordy do we need D. Bad enough I’d be listening to offers but it has to be a player that is at least an RFA.

    Spurgeon doesn’t have the pedigree but Larson could be the ideal target.

    NJ only has 3 defensemen under contract for next season so it’s unlikely they’ll be giving one away.

    Larsson is RFA so I expect he’ll get signed soon but their other RFA, Eric Gelinas, is rumoured to be available in the right deal for some scoring.

    He’s a 6’4″ 220 LH shooter who has decent offence.

    There’s been lots of speculation that Phil Kessel could be headed to NJ and I would imagine that Gelinas and the Devil’s 1st would be part of the package.

  30. MrEd says:

    Nook Laloosh. So cool.
    Splitting hairs here.
    -I see Darnell as #4. It’s finger crossing I know but our D… nuff said.
    -Hendricks might be as high as #14 right now IMO. He’s such a leader.

  31. David says:

    trading Yakupov is one the worst things the Oilers can do. He is going to be a consistent 30 goal 60+ point guy from ages 24-30 maybe earlier/later. He’s the payment we received for one of the years of agony. One shot scorer on a team of playmakers.

  32. flyfish1168 says:

    Nail with his new contract should put him in the inside. That is an incredible contract and if he get where he should be he will be worth more down the road as a trading chip or core player. Chia’s biggest mistake I believe as a GM in Boston was CAP management. If I was him I would want a do over on how I handled a few of those contract. We will be in CAP hell very soon even without winning anything If he isn’t careful.

  33. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Scott Bartlett ‏@SCGscott 1h1 hour ago

    After 8 Pts in 8 GP at WCs we have fielded multiple #NHL offers for FIN’s Joonas Donskoi. Likely to jump to North America. Decision soon

    http://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=122758

  34. Hammers says:

    VanOil:
    No trade chips this summer:
    No. 1 overall pick in 2015
    Taylor Hall
    Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
    Jordan Eberle
    Oscar Klefbom
    Darnell Nurse
    Leon Draisaitl
    Benoit Pouliot
    Nail Yakupov
    Mark Fayne
    Anton Lander
    Martin Marincin
    No. 16 overall selection in 2015
    ——— Can Trade ——-
    Boyd Gordon
    Matt Hendricks
    First-round pick in 2016
    Second-round pick in 2016
    No. 33 overall selection in 2015
    —— Please Trade——
    Justin Schultz
    Nitikin

    Kinda like your list

  35. rickithebear says:

    2 years from now:
    Do you take
    defensively sound yakimov racking 20 to 25G on RW/C
    Or
    30G -20 yakupov on RW.

  36. maudite says:

    You to to market with marincin, you are going to get swindled IMO. I am honestly stunned at how hopeful I am that poor management might finally be at an end.

    Mact already bungled lander’s deal and hopefully they correct it with marincin.

    An early 20’s defender that hasn’t quite put a stamp on permanent nhl residence…go long now and cheap. Those are the type of contracts that make management look great at the back end of the deal. Put a 5 year deal in front of him in +/- 2 mil range and laugh as he likely happily inks the deal. Worse case he’s bottom pairing but quite likely he just becomes more valuable trade asset down the road.

  37. Pouzar says:

    rickithebear:
    2 years from now:
    Do you take
    defensively sound yakimov racking 20 to 25G on RW/C
    Or
    30G -20 yakupov on RW.

    Yakimov was really doing some nice things down the stretch. I wouldn’t move him or Drai.

  38. square_wheels says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Lou’s stink on that team even still, another bad contract to go with the 10 others.

    Maybe Schneider shakes loose, now I’m really interested.

  39. ashley says:

    rickithebear:
    2 years from now:
    Do you take
    defensively sound yakimov racking 20 to 25G on RW/C
    Or
    30G -20 yakupov on RW.

    Draft pedigree history tells us that one of these is much more likely than the other.

    The question might also be framed thusly: Would we rather have a real NHL player with 3 years experience that can score 20 goals on the RW with upside from there or hope?

  40. Chamucks says:

    rickithebear,

    If Yakimov scores 25 goals within the next two years I’ll eat my hat.
    No joke.

  41. square_wheels says:

    Pouzar,

    Seeing his stats when playing with wingers than can scoot and finish, we have something special here but it needs nurturing. Seems like a positive kid as well, really cheering like hell for bigYak.

  42. Hammers says:

    Actually getting rid of Yak right now would be dumb . I agree that any player could be traded but there definitely is a right and wrong time . Yak just got to play with someone he meshed with so that tells us if there is one there is another . When you look at this team there are others I would trade befor Yak we have some value contracts ,Yak is one Lander and Marincin are the others so for me I would look at Schultz,Gordon Nikitin ,Ference before virtually anybody else .

  43. innercitysmytty says:

    LT,

    Have to say that I don’t get your concern that they’ll trade Yaks. Assuming Chia is a competent, rational GM, why would they trade him unless the return is good?

    1. He reportedly has a low market value
    2. His cap hit is good
    3. Solid work ethic and citizen
    4. Chia wants to see what he has

    Number one and two combine to give him much more value to the Oilers than they can get in return for a trade. Just don’t see that he gets traded any time soon. My 5 cents.

  44. striatic says:

    Buy high sell low on Yakupov sounds like a bad idea.

    I also disagree that he is a poor fit for the lineup.

    Hall, RNH, Yakupov
    Pouliot, McD, Eberle

    is a perfectly reasonable top 6 if Yak continues as he finished last year. He should be playing with *all around* good players on a consistent basis, not with pure defence guys trying to babysit him because the team is so deeply afraid that he might make a mistake.

  45. square_wheels says:

    square_wheels,

    Somewhere a Senators fan is eating a hat right now, cursing a 178th overall pic that on paper shouldn’t be causing him/her to choke down the foamy shit on the inside of a sweaty trucker hat.

    Big Men that can skate, play both sides of the puck and gain confidence through 100 sorties in the AHL arrive ready to contribute.

    Don’t put your ketchup away just yet, you might need it.

  46. Kitchener says:

    Trading Yak for anything less that 1OV value would be terrible asset management. So Yak has taken a little longer to bloom, so what? Unless you think his performance is going to decline over the next two seasons, trading him now would pretty much guarantee the lowest possible return on a 1st overall draft selection. If Yak needs to be traded in two years, fine, but by then we’ll also know:
    – how the rest of the team performs in two years
    – if insane chemistry develops between Yak and ___
    – what the F group needs for the maximum benefit (a Lucic/Oates/Mullen/Smyth/___)

    So, unless there’s a Dougie Hamilton or Victor Hedman coming back in a trade for Yak this offseason, no way would I trade Yak.

    Where would I draw the line for bringing in players? I would add option #20 to LT’s list: buy out or trade away two of FSN, then spend Daryl’s money on G, D, D. Either spend via free agency or spend by taking on salary from a team in cap trouble (eg. a player like Chara)

    Tool #20 is $$$, cap space, and the change in tide that McJesus brings to Edmonton for UFAs.

  47. flyfish1168 says:

    striatic:
    Buy high sell low on Yakupov sounds like a bad idea.

    I also disagree that he is a poor fit for the lineup.

    Hall, RNH, Yakupov
    Pouliot, McD, Eberle

    is a perfectly reasonable top 6 if Yak continues as he finished last year. He should be playing with *all around* good players on a consistent basis, not with pure defence guys trying to babysit him because the team is so deeply afraid that he might make a mistake.

    That is why eakins is gone. Top 6 player skill set can’t play with 4th line skill defensive types. Stupid. Jmho

  48. 8p0intgame says:

    ing316,

    Breakdown of Proposed Trade #1:

    Nugent-Hopkins vs. Bergeron:
    Age (at start of 15/16 season): 22 years vs. 30 years
    Height: 6’0″ vs. 6’2″
    Weight: 190 lbs. vs. 194 lbs.
    Games Played (14/15): 76 vs. 81
    Goals: 24 vs. 23
    Assists: 32 vs. 32
    Points: 56 vs. 55
    Goals Per Game (GPG): .316 vs. .284
    Points Per Game (PPG): .737 vs. 630
    Cap Hit: $6 million/year vs. $6.5 million/year
    Contract length (remaining): 5 years vs. 5 years
    Salary: $30 million vs. $36 million

    Bergeron is bigger and better defensively, but he also scores less and is exiting his prime. Nugent-Hopkins is years away from his prime and the scoring gap will only increase as he improves while Bergeron declines. Also, a declining Bergeron costs more and has a bigger cap hit than Nuge.

    Winner: Nugent-Hopkins

    Eberle vs Lucic:
    Age (at start of 15/16 season): 25 vs. 27
    Height: 5’11” vs. 6’3″
    Weight: 183 lbs. vs. 235
    Games Played (14/15): 81 vs. 81
    Goals: 24 vs. 18
    Assists: 39 vs. 26
    Points: 63 vs. 44
    Goals Per Game (GPG): .296 vs. .222
    Points Per Game (PPG): .778 vs. .543
    Cap Hit: $6 million/year vs. $6 million/year
    Contract length (remaining): 4 years vs. 1 year
    Salary: $24 million vs. $6 million

    Lucic is bigger, but he scores less. If the Oilers ink Lucic to the contract you suggested, he will 34 when his contract expires. The Oilers will be paying a declining player $6 million/year for the last 3 to 4 years of that contract. Eberle will play his peak years in Edmonton before his current contract expires.

    Winner: Eberle

    Schultz vs. Hamilton:
    Age (at start of 15/16 season): 25 vs. 21
    Height: 6’2″ vs. 6’5″
    Weight: 196 lbs. vs. 212 lbs.
    Games Played (14/15): 81 vs. 72
    Goals: 6 vs. 10
    Assists: 25 vs. 32
    Points: 31 vs. 42
    Goals Per Game (GPG): .074 vs. .139
    Points Per Game (PPG): .383 vs. .583
    Cap Hit: Unknown (Est. 3.675 million/year) vs. Unknown (Est. 4.5 million/year)
    Contract length (remaining): RFA vs. RFA
    Salary: $0 vs. $0

    Hamilton is a clear upgrade over Schultz. No argument here.

    Winner: Hamilton

    The Oilers would be better off not making this trade, dumping Schultz, and offer sheeting Hamilton instead. He would only cost draft picks and money if he was offer sheeted.

    Breakdown of Proposed Trade #3:

    Gordon vs. Kassian
    Age (at start of 15/16 season): 31 vs. 24
    Height: 6’0″ vs. 6’3″
    Weight: 200 lbs. vs. 214 lbs.
    Games Played (14/15): 68 vs. 42
    Goals: 6 vs. 10
    Assists: 7 vs. 6
    Points: 13 vs. 16
    Goals Per Game (GPG): .088 vs. .238
    Points Per Game (PPG): .191 vs. .381
    Cap Hit: $3 million/year vs. $2 million/year
    Contract length (remaining): 1 year vs. 1 year
    Salary: $3 million vs. $1 million

    Kassian is bigger and scores twice as much as Gordon, but he has a wonky back. I can’t judge his defensive abilities against Gordon’s because I don’t watch enough games. I also can’t forgive Kassian for what he did to Gagner. He’s a goon. I’m going to call this round a tie because I can’t make an unbiased decision.

    Winner: Tie

    If this trade is made though, the prospect better be a C or D grade one!

    I would breakdown your second proposed trade, but there are too many hypotheticals with a struggling roster player, a prospect and a pick for two roster players. I can’t do it.

  49. Chamucks says:

    square_wheels,

    I really, really like my odds of not eating a hat. There’s a 99% chance Yakimov is not Mark Stone.
    I’d be happy to eat though. Really I would.

  50. square_wheels says:

    8p0intgame,

    How dare you speak his name, Kassian is a Grade A dick. I can’t wait for when Nurse elbows his head clean off his body. I will rejoice.

  51. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    The obvious answer is keep him. At the end of two years he’s still rfa. Then you make the decision between Yak and another forward, likely Eberle, who should be just cresting his peak. Of course, taking the relationships on this team into account, Yak is the odd man out. He doesn’t drink with the boys, he doesn’t hang out with them, and he’s not best friends with Hall like Ebs is. On the other hand the arrival of King Conn changes the landscape significantly. Maybe Yak and McDavid will be the new odd couple?

  52. square_wheels says:

    Chamucks,

    Haha, ha you’ve got solid odds. 25 in this league is no easy feat. Don’t think I’d make that bet either, but he’s going to play 500 games, I’d make that bet.

  53. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    My no trade list is short. Basically the players you only get at the draft these days. Anyone else really can be replaced if moved in the right deal especially for a young and gifted NHL RHD. I don’t know if you can get a high calibre established young goalie in a trade unless he had asked for a trade and the lucky streak continued.

    CMD
    RNH
    Hall
    Drai
    Klef
    Nurse

  54. PunkInDrublic says:

    To me, the only real option is to sign a few decent defencemen (Sekera and maybe McQuaid) and a goalie (Neuvirth). Ride this upcoming year out and pray that this team improves enough that they are able to convince a few of the 2016 UFAs to sign here without a massive overpay. Don’t trade Yak, trade picks (not 16th) and mid-level prospect, if anything.

    The crop of UFAs in 2016 is incredible. Players like Seabrook, Lucic, Yandle, Goligoski, Hamhius, Ladd, Voracek, Giordano, Liles, Brouwer, or Byfuglien will all be available, and Nikitin, Purcell, Gazdic, and Gordon are off the books.

    If McDavid launches this team next year the way I (we all) hope, the options in 2016 are limitless.

  55. square_wheels says:

    Chamucks,

    Speaking of Mark Stone, that 17% shooting is gonna regress, can’t see him being able to sustain that.

    Our boy Yakcity seen that regression as well, goal scorers are a bit like goalies….they are voodoo year to year.

  56. Dashingsilverfox says:

    square_wheels:
    8p0intgame,

    How dare you speak his name, Kassian is a Grade A dick. I can’t wait for when Nurse elbows his head clean off his body. I will rejoice.

    The Oilers need a Grade A Dick in the worst way.

    Take a look at the teams that have won a cup in the recent past.

    Lucic, Marchand, Shawn Thornton and Chara are all Grade A Dicks.

    Dustin Brown, Dwight King, Matt Greene and Joran Nolan are all Grade A Dicks.

    Brian Bickell, Brandon Bollig and Andrew Shaw are all Grade A Dicks.

    Corey Perry, Matt Belesky, Patrick Marron and Ryan Kesler are all Grade A Dicks.

  57. square_wheels says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Too much dick talk.

    But Kassian is on the list of never ever players, classless asshole.
    But you’ve got a great point, we’ve had our fair share and the cup run was full of them.
    Nurse is going to be on 29 other teams hate list, can’t wait.
    And Yakcity is not exactly a player people like either.

  58. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    PunkInDrublic:
    To me, the only real option is to sign a few decent defencemen (Sekera and maybe McQuaid) and a goalie (Neuvirth).Ride this upcoming year out and pray that this team improves enough that they are able to convince a few of the 2016 UFAs to sign here without a massive overpay.Don’t trade Yak, trade picks (not 16th) and mid-level prospect, if anything.

    The crop of UFAs in 2016 is incredible.Players like Seabrook, Lucic, Yandle, Goligoski, Hamhius, Ladd, Voracek, Giordano, Liles, Brouwer, or Byfuglien will all be available, and Nikitin, Purcell, Gazdic, and Gordon are off the books.

    If McDavid launches this team next year the way I (we all) hope, the options in 2016 are limitless.

    Agreed and I think if they can land 2 decent UFA D and a goalie on decent deals those additions make them a decent shot for playoffs. RNH CMD Lander Gordon is a good group with only one rookie. More C’s would be good but even with an injury everyone can slot up reasonably well and Hendricks can cover 4C.

  59. Dashingsilverfox says:

    square_wheels:
    Chamucks,

    Speaking of Mark Stone, that 17% shooting is gonna regress, can’t see him being able to sustain that.

    Our boy Yakcity seen that regression as well, goal scorers are a bit like goalies….they are voodoo year to year.

    No they aren’t.

    The good ones are very consistent.

    Mark Stone’s Shooting% in the past 3 seasons:

    2012/13 AHL 17.6%

    2013/14 AHL 19.7% NHL 11.1%

    2014/15 NHL 16.6%

    That’s getting close to an established level of ability.

    In those same 3 seasons Yakupov:

    2012/13 NHL 21%

    2013/14 NHL 9%

    2014/15 NHL 7.3%

    I would imagine he’ll settle somewhere around 10%

  60. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Dashingsilverfox: The Oilers need a Grade A Dick in the worst way.

    Take a look at the teams that have won a cup in the recent past.

    Lucic, Marchand, Shawn Thornton and Chara are all Grade A Dicks.

    Dustin Brown, Dwight King, Matt Greene and Joran Nolan are all Grade A Dicks.

    Brian Bickell, Brandon Bollig and Andrew Shaw are all Grade A Dicks.

    Corey Perry, Matt Belesky, Patrick Marron and Ryan Kesler are all Grade A Dicks.

    Agreed NHL teams need players that are not wallflowers. The Oilers have some now, and I’m sure more will be acquired. There are also role players in the system now that have some crust. Next season they will have Hall, Lander, Nurse, Hendricks, Pouliot, Klink at least. Drai seems to have a bit of jam as well if he makes it.

    Perhaps not the most abrasive group but the Gagner cluster days are long gone. Teams didn’t try to punk the Oilers last year to my eye either which I used to really dislike. I think that corner has been turned already and I’m not saying they are perfect or as greasy.

  61. square_wheels says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    Has anyone analyzed AHL to NHL shooting % transition ?

    I was mildly trolling on the Stone comment, but I suspect he’ll settle in around 10-12 and so will Yak.

    Who were Stones normal line mates ? Suspect the elite AHL scorers get in the high teens before dropping to a reasonable NHL # if they can skate.

  62. Soup Fascist says:

    Dashingsilverfox: The Oilers need a Grade A Dick in the worst way.

    Take a look at the teams that have won a cup in the recent past.

    Lucic, Marchand, Shawn Thornton and Chara are all Grade A Dicks.

    Dustin Brown, Dwight King, Matt Greene and Joran Nolan are all Grade A Dicks.

    Brian Bickell, Brandon Bollig and Andrew Shaw are all Grade A Dicks.

    Corey Perry, Matt Belesky, Patrick Marron and Ryan Kesler are all Grade A Dicks.

    Kassian is not in any of those guys league. As much as he would like to, there are “lifestyle issues” that make Kassian very difficult to move for Jim Benning.

  63. RexLibris says:

    What to do about Nail

    “Meh, screw him.”

    ——

    Okay, probably too easy to be worth posting but, on a more serious note, I don’t see Chiarelli trading Yakupov because there really is no upside in it for him.

    Yakupov isn’t a problem in the dressing room, he doesn’t have the kind of real NHL value that addresses the G and 1st pairing D needs, nor is he signed to some boat-anchor of a contract.

    He isn’t that significant a trade market for him to, in MacTavish’s words, move the dial.

    I think you get further dealing one of the prospects outside of the Holy Trinity (McDavid, Draisaitl, Nurse) and a 2nd rounder this year or next because you aren’t giving up as much to get as little in return.

    The team needs a Vlasic.

    They aren’t getting a Vlasic. Time to move on to other options that have a chance of happening. If Chiarelli could somehow hornswaggle Neely into taking Yakupov and Slepyshev for Hamilton and a pick then by all means, but as with Vlasic, I have a hard time seeing that happening.

    One thing MacTavish did well was move laterally to make forward progress (move Dubnyk for Hendricks to sign Bryzgalov and later acquire Scrivens and Fasth with picks offset by the trade of Hemsky).

    Chiarelli could move out a contract or two for picks, move the picks with Schultz, and then attack free-agency with extra cap space or move 2016 picks and prospects to try and exploit those much-discussed cap-strapped teams.

    The time to trade Nail Yakupov will be two years from now.

  64. RexLibris says:

    Soup Fascist: there are “lifestyle issues” that make Kassian very difficult to move for Jim Benning.

    Doesn’t separate his recyclables, does he? Reprobate.

  65. square_wheels says:

    RexLibris,

    Refuses to sing along to the anthem with the fans, he’s pissed that buddy has better hair.

  66. Soup Fascist says:

    RexLibris: Doesn’t separate his recyclables, does he? Reprobate.

    Much worse. He cuts the “Do Not Remove” tags off of mattresses.

  67. square_wheels says:

    square_wheels:
    RexLibris,

    Refuses to sing along to the anthem with the fans, he’s pissed that buddy has better hair.

    Paul Laurio is waiting for him in the next life with a microphone, ready to smash him for stealing our sing along. God I hate Vancouver.

  68. rickithebear says:

    I believe in elite peer trending.
    Or
    Mcdavid racking points in CHL
    Would mean fuck alll!

    Since the turn of the century.
    .20+ GPG players 18 @ start of RSL/KHL season.
    There best goal rank.
    Kovalchuk #2
    Semin #7
    Kulemin #27
    Ovechkin #1
    Malkin #2
    Kuznetsov
    Tarasenko #5
    Yakupov #28
    Slepyshev
    Yakimov

    To exclude the last 2 who established a rare peer standard is BS.
    That would require an org bias that would result in prospect failure of historic proportion.
    There are 15 drafts and 15 #1 picks.
    How many have failed in that time.

    In 15 years there are 10 that achieved that and 4 are top 5 picks.
    Being a 1st overall pick occurs more than what these 10 did.
    Do not screw this up oilers.

  69. Alpine says:

    I don’t think the defense is as hard to fix as we think, and there’s some rather obvious moves I think PC could pull off.

    Sign Sekera. He’s this year’s Stralman, not quite as good, but just as under the radar. Just sign him. 4 x 4.5M or even 5MM.

    Make a move for Hjalmarsson. I keep seeing Seabrook’s name brought up but Hjalmarrson plays the toughs so Seabrook and Keith can have easier nights. He’s signed for a few more years at a very nice 4.1 million. He can play the right side and be a perfect compliment to Klefbom. He’s the one to target from CHI. Him and Oduya off the books means CHI can extend Seabrook and keep him and Keith together. Though that leaves incredibly thin on the back end.

  70. Snowman says:

    rickithebear,

    Those guys are all plugs. I can’t even say half their names. I bet they’re all very elusive. Definitely not Canadians. Who needs em…

  71. square_wheels says:

    Alpine,

    hjarlmerson is a beauty but Chi isn’t giving him up, not for anything less than a Yak. If he’d sign an extension then maybe. I’d say he’s Chi’s real #2 d, they’d probably let Seabrook walk before the Swede.

  72. SwedishPoster says:

    Alpine,

    Sekera is the main target for me. I’m not even certain Strålman is the better of the two.

    Chicago would be crazy to move Hjalmarsson, a fantastic D and character player on a great contract. For a team in Cap trouble he’s perfect. Still in a good age as well. Hjalmarsson alongside Keiths contract is the reason Chicago will likely keep their contention window open even after Toews and Kanes big contracts kick in.

  73. VanOil says:

    rickithebear:
    2 years from now:
    Do you take
    defensively sound yakimov racking 20 to 25G on RW/C
    Or
    30G -20 yakupov on RW.

    is both the answer?

  74. ing316 says:

    8p0intgame,

    The points that are missed when people are listing their opinions for trades and teams needs are Salary Cap (here and now) and down the road. Also the mix of players is an important part to make a team click (too much of the same player does not make a great team)

    Trade #1- As mentioned in original post: RNH and Eberle are at a younger age and are trending up with a decent contract for each. This makes the deal appealing for Boston and is what “their team needs”. Bergeron brings good offence, good defensive play, grit, experience (Stanley Cup), best faceoff man in the NHL for last 4 years. When RNH contract expires are you going to pay him 7-8 million/year to be your 3rd line center when McDavid and Drai are your 1-2?
    Lucic brings size, toughness and intimidation without hurting a skilled line. How many times have we seen young Oiler stars get liberties taken on them? Remember when Drai got his head slammed into the boards from behind after the whistle and noone did anything? I would much rather have someone like Lucic out on the Ice with McDavid than Eberele as when someone goes to take a questionable hit on the young star they might think twice. As for the term it may be the only way to get him at that Cap hit. I guarantee if Lucic hitsUFA he will get big offer sheets from lots of clubs. The third piece was the much needed Defense upgrade in Hamilton over Shultz. I think both teams get what they need in these trades which could make it happen.
    Kassian for Gordon: Similar reasoning as the Lucic. Kassian has shown some flashes skill and would fit in fine on a third line. A team that loses all the time cannot win by paying your 4th line center what Gordon gets paid. Lander can take his position easily and is signed for 1 million. With the other players listed the lineup would include 6 players that can play center, much improved goaltending, 6 actual defensemen a much more balanced team of experience and youth, much bigger and grittier and coming in well under the Cap.

  75. BlueNoteNorth says:

    If McDavid is the centre of the new cluster then IMO you do not trade the 2015 16th overall pick in a deep draft. That player will have significant cap value in three or four years when the cluster starts to get too expensive.

  76. Bank Shot says:

    BlueNoteNorth:
    If McDavid is the centre of the new cluster then IMO you do not trade the 2015 16th overall pick in a deep draft. That playerwill have significant cap value in three or four years when the cluster starts to get too expensive.

    I think all the talk about clusters gets a bit overstated. You don’t need all of your core players to be the same age.

    It’s not possible or ptactical.

    Hossa fits in well with the group in Chicago For example.

    Get guys that are good players and can contribute. Don’t worry too much about trying to time every player’s decline.

  77. rickithebear says:

    VanOil: is both the answer?

    Maybe!
    We have to make a call in 2 years.
    Summer 17
    Mcdavid (21) 1 yr ELC
    RNH (24) 4 yr
    Hall (26) 3 yr
    Eberle (27) 2 yr
    Pouliot (31) 2 yr
    Lander (26) RFA 6’0″ 190lb
    Yakupov (24) RFA
    Draisatl (22) RFA 6’1″ 215lb
    Yakimov (23)RFA 6’5″ 232lb
    Khaira (23) RFA 6’3″ 215lb
    Marincin (25) maybe 2 yr bridge RFA

  78. Ducey says:

    You can’t trade next years 1st. If the Oilers miss the playoffs, which they will, there will be three lotteries.

    Imagine missing the playoffs and watching another team pick Austen Mattews with the Oilers pick. That would really take the wind out of all the goodwill built up this spring.

  79. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    A 15G- 25A winger on the 3rd line making $2.5M is a value contract in the NHL. Teddy Purcell was something similar and made $4.5M, too. So why would you trade away an actual value contract when you will desperately need one in the future. If Yak goes, a similar value contract needs to be coming back.

    Also, forget Kassian. Too much bad blood with certain Oilers. He won’t be coming here.

  80. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    P.S. A belated congrats to Canada, especially Hall and Eberle.
    P.P.S Holy crap is Eichel gonna be good. No guarantees the Calder finally makes it to Edmonton. We had no chance of getting Jack so I’m very grateful we got McJesus.

  81. russ99 says:

    With MacT pushed to the side we can stop the three scoring line ideal that diminishes our playoff chances and put Yak on a line with players that can help him maximize his potential.

    Dump Purcell, don’t re-up Roy, sign Soderberg and Winnik

    Hall – McDavid – Yak (crush vs. softs at home, potential to push river on the road)
    Pouliot – RNH – Ebs (push the river vs. semi-toughs)
    Lander – Soderberg – Winnik (third shutdown line with some offense)
    Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer (akin to what they do now, more effective since their workload is spread across two lines)

    Then use our trade chips for goalie and defense.

  82. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    russ99:
    With MacT pushed to the side we can stop the three scoring line ideal that diminishes our playoff chances and put Yak on a line with players that can help him maximize his potential.

    Dump Purcell, don’t re-up Roy, sign Soderberg and Winnik

    Hall – McDavid – Yak (crush vs. softs at home, potential to push river on the road)
    Pouliot – RNH – Ebs (push the river vs. semi-toughs)
    Lander – Soderberg – Winnik (third shutdown line with some offense)
    Hendricks – Gordon – Klinkhammer (akin to what they do now, more effective since their workload is spread across two lines)

    Then use our trade chips for goalie and defense.

    This is exactly my offseason list, too. However, the issue of cap (and who is going to take Purcell off the Oilers’ hands at $4.5M) remains unresolved. P.S. I have pushed for Soderberg for a while, but he isn’t really a shut-down C (even though he was on the 3rd line). On his line Eriksson is a strong 2-way winger and Bergeron is the shut-down C. Carl is a capable two-way C, but not a shut-down type, IMO.

  83. Bar_Qu says:

    If LT doesn’t get a new post up right away all my excuses to stay on the couch and not help clean the garage are gone.

    Help me LT-wan-kenobi. You’re my only hope.

    (kidding, I hope you’re having a good sleep May-day)

  84. frjohnk says:

    russ99: Hall – McDavid – Yak (crush vs. softs at home, potential to push river on the road)

    Offensively this line could be outstanding. But defensively, it could be a disaster. Hall, at best, is mediocre in his own zone, Yak still had trouble exiting the zone and a lot of tire fires were ablaze when he was on the ice.

    McDavid needs wingers that are are fast, are good defensively and can exit the zone reasonably well. I think you can have one of Hall or Yak on McDavids line, but not both.

  85. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    frjohnk: Offensively this line could be outstanding.But defensively, it could be a disaster.Hall, at best, is mediocre in his own zone, Yak still had trouble exiting the zone and a lot of tire fires were ablaze when he was on the ice.

    McDavid needs wingers that are are fast, are good defensively and can exit the zone reasonably well.I think you can have one of Hall or Yak on McDavids line, but not both.

    Which is why finding a right-handed Pouliot makes sense. If Justin Williams wasn’t going to cost so much, he’d be a decent veteran right wing fit. Problem is, you do that and you’re handing 3C to Lander (no money for Soderberg). Unless by a second miracle Chia can offload Purcell, Ference, Gazdic and Nikitin’s money and bring Sobotka over (pie in the sky stuff)

    Hall-McDavid-Williams
    Pouliot-RNH-Eberle
    Lander-Sobotka-Yakupov
    Hendricks-Gordon-Kilinkhammer
    Winnik

    Should be an outstanding group of forwards. That blue line and goalie thing though…

  86. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    I suspect a team needing a reasonably priced 2nd line C is going to attract Soderbergs attention more than our sudden fame. Love the player but unless he wants to play the next 4 years behind Nuge and CMD, how can we afford him ? If he can play RW then it’s a maybe, but I believe he plays left on that Erikson/Bergeron line (which is the perfect duo type for CMD)..

    Chia wont want to spend his allowance on the first day of summer holidays, unless he has a grand plan to acquire Seth Jones or Shattenkirk and needs a bullet from the roster.

    This summer should be tame but who seen the Pronger trade coming ?

  87. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    square_wheels,

    We can’t afford him as it stands. Which is what I’ve been saying for months now. Those contracts MacT took on hurt now. I wrote many a comment about this and Soderberg through the winter. Also, I think your lines for Boston are a little messed up.
    Eriksson-Soderberg-Kelly = third line. He really wasn’t playing with Bergeron.

    Edit- so I guess my point was I studied a lot about this player. Like Stralman last summer, he has bounced around. Stability will mean a lot to him. I see him getting a Pouliot-type contract $4M x 5 years or so. He will want it. He’s had a tough, long road getting to the NHL (he is legally blind in one eye now through an accident).

  88. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL "Taking Photos",

    I like Matthias for that 3rd line, versatile player and same story, been bounced around a lot. Another well travelled player that intrigues is Frolik.

  89. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    square_wheels,

    Ya, well, when I started pumping Soderberg’s tires it was January or December, I think. B.C. (Before Connor). Needed someone veteran to bail out Nuge. A cheaper 3C option makes sense now. Matthias is nice but doesn’t play much C at all. Rights to Sobotka would be really nice. Can’t have too many centres, in my opinion. 5 on the club with Draisaitl in the AHL would be nice.

  90. Thor762 says:

    Chiarelli said in his press conference that he likes guys that play heavy.

    I can only presume that would include being hard on the puck and lots of go-go juice in the tank. Is that not Yak?

    He lost two years of development and all of his confidence in the gawd awful coaching of Eakins.

    Let a competent coach in McLellan have him for a year. Give him some experience to work with and park him in just the right spot to use his lightning fast reflexes on the powerplay.

  91. Hammers says:

    Follow up from my point of view . Gretz won with 8-10 other great players from goal out . To start thinking McDavid is a saviour is wrong unless he has that top ten others to win with . No goalie , two future great D players in Klef and Nurse and enough forwards to make 3 decent lines . Most things worth while are worth building So my guess is we are 2 years away from being a top ten in the league .

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