RE 14-15 BEN SCRIVENS: LITTLE MARTHA

I don’t know anyone who cheers against Ben Scrivens, and in Edmonton—for a goalie—that’s incredible. Scrivens is a fine person, his causes are absolutely worthy, and he’s a thoughtful young man who uses his celebrity to further genuine conversation and debate. I cheer like hell for him.

He had a very bad year as a hockey player.

BEN SCRIVENS PLAYER CARD

SCRIVENS RE

  1. That was an ugly season. From game one through to the last one, complete disaster.
  2. Will they bring him back? Hard to say.
  3. Would you bring him back? Yes.
  4. Well, that’s it, fire him into the sun! Scrivens’ four seasons of college featured good SP’s (.911, .930, .931, .934) after year one and he had some interesting postings in the minors. Reading (ECHL) for 13 games (.938) followed by parts of three seasons with the Marlies (.924, .926, .917). That’s some consistent goaltending average to quality numbers. No one was surprised when he got a contract, Leafs won a bit of a bidding war for his services (with the Flyers).
  5. Bah! Either you stop the puck or you don’t! He’s got no heart! Thanks, Orval Tessier.
  6. You loved Scrivens, said he’d win the Vezina. Not quite.
  7. What did you say, then? I said (here) “Scrivens worked hard to get himself into this position, and has been rewarded for it with a contract and a number one job. If it doesn’t work out, it’s still a good bet. This is an experienced goaltender by age, and his performances in the NHL so far indicate quality.” Source
  8. But his NHL numbers sucked. Well, no. After the college, ECHL an AHL numbers I posted above, Scrivens graduated to the NHL. In 12 games during 2011-12, he was .902; in 20 games in 2012-13 he was .915—that’s about average; in 2013-14, before coming to the Oilers, he was .931 in LA and then .916 after coming over during 2014-15.
  9. Still he was only above average for a short time in the NHL. True, he didn’t have a long resume. However, most fans (at the time of his signing) felt it was a reasonable bet.
  10. How wrong we were. He had a terrible year and may never get another chance, and that’s a fact. On the other hand, if you line all those seasons in a row, there’s really two (last year and NHL debut) that are so far below par you’d have to wonder about him as an NHL player. Ben Scrivens might have to try another city but someone will likely take a chance on him.
  11. Edmonton won’t let him near the crease again. I don’t think there’s any way to know.
  12. Why do you like him? Well, there was that record breaking game where he stopped 900 shots. Plus he seems like a decent sort, a good man. He has the courage of his convictions and his support of mental health was touching for anyone who was paying attention or has been impacted by it directly or indirectly.
  13. But that doesn’t have anything to do with performance in the NHL. Yes.
  14. What did Darcy McLeod find? Scrivens had one good year (Edmonton traded for him) and the other seasons were poor compared to the rest of the league in terms of adjusted save percentage. Darcy also stated on the Lowdown that goalies don’t get better with age (I agree with that) and we may have seen the best of Ben.
  15. So that’s it, flush Scrivens. There’s the matter of one more year on a contract. Edmonton could buy him out, and maybe they do. I’m guessing we see Ben Scrivens in TC and he’s 60/40 or better to be the backup in 2015-16.
  16. Then put him in the minors! Edmonton’s pro goaling depth chart is Ben Scrivens, Laurent Brossoit, Eetu Laurikainen and Ty Rimmer, who has an AHL contract. Suspect Scrivens makes the team unless Edmonton brings in two goalies.
  17. Think that happens? No. I think we’ll see PC acquire Craig Anderson or Corey Crawford or Antti Niemi. I believe we’ll see a famous goalie.
  18. Niemi is done. Maybe. We’ll know how Todd McLellan feels as soon as the UFA window opens. I think it’s wise for us to be open to any possibilities, but a famous name is more likely than Cam Talbot or Jhonas Enroth.
  19. I thought you liked the risky bet? Signing Niemi is a risky bet, too. I do like the idea of an early-to-mid 20’s G with a good track record, but don’t want to pay too dearly for it. I suspect Craig Anderson for cap relief is the likely deal, something like that.
  20. Then what? Scrivens is backup for a year. Coach up Brossoit, probably draft a solid prospect (Edmonton isn’t good at that, maybe Dustin Schwartz can help) and build for the day when one Brossoit or that draft pick can become No. 1G.
  21. Is Scrivens the great goaltending tragedy for Edmonton? No, the great goaltending tragedy for Edmonton is spending a decade training Minnesota’s starting goalie (hat tip to Bruce McCurdy for that line).
  22. Why this song? It’s just so beautiful. Ben Scrivens signed in good faith to play for the Oilers and planned on being part of the solution. He was not. That’s hard on someone, no matter how tough they are. I hope Scrivens has a peaceful summer, as untroubled as this song. And I hope he regains his career, as Dubnyk has done since leaving Edmonton. I also hope he can do it here, but goalies and happy endings haven’t been seen in these parts for a decade.

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94 Responses to "RE 14-15 BEN SCRIVENS: LITTLE MARTHA"

  1. supernova says:

    If it’s up to me I flush Scrivens.

    Teams that don’t trust their goalies or have fragile confidence in them rarely improve during that season.

    The confidence in Scrivens has to be a issue, to start the season with him as the 1 or 2 tells the team we aren’t here to compete.

    I agree he is a likeable guy and probably respected by his teammates, but they played like they don’t trust his ability.

    Same thing happened to Dubnyk, it happens to lots of Goalies and most of the time a fresh start is needed.

  2. Pouzar says:

    Not to hijack too early…interesting insight from Ray Ferrero:

    Bruce McMcCurdy ‏@BruceMcCurdy 1h1 hour ago
    Ferraro on Anton Slepyshev: “That kid’s a player. I saw him at World Junior & loved him. He’s not a 3 years in the AHL” project. #Oilers

    Bruce McMcCurdy ‏@BruceMcCurdy 1h1 hour ago
    Ferraro: Real impressed with Anton Lander. Harder player than I realized, better with the puck. If he’s your 3rd guy you’re in good shape”

    Bruce McMcCurdy ‏@BruceMcCurdy 57m57 minutes ago
    Ferraro: “1st time you guys see McDavid in the neutral zone, you will be amazed. Other guys slow down with the puck, he seems to speed up.”

  3. Lowetide says:

    supernova:
    If it’s up to me I flush Scrivens.

    Teams that don’t trust their goalies or have fragile confidence in them rarely improve during that season.

    The confidence in Scrivens has to be a issue, to start the season with him as the 1 or 2 tells the team we aren’t here to compete.

    I agree he is a likeable guy and probably respected by his teammates, but they played like they don’t trust his ability.

    Same thing happened to Dubnyk, it happens to lots of Goalies and most of the time a fresh start is needed.

    I think the time to move him was last season. For this year, bring him to camp unless you’re going to buy him out (which doesn’t make sense to me). Edmonton can send him down.

  4. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: I think the time to move him was last season. For this year, bring him to camp unless you’re going to buy him out (which doesn’t make sense to me). Edmonton can send him down.

    Yup. I find it hard to believe he will be worse and I expect a lot better. No issues with him in a back up role with LB waiting in the wings.

  5. mujidog says:

    Can we loan him to Minnesota for a few weeks so that he can regain his confidence and form?

  6. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar:
    Not to hijack too early…interesting insight from Ray Ferrero:

    Bruce McMcCurdy ‏@BruceMcCurdy 1h1 hour ago
    Ferraro on Anton Slepyshev: “That kid’s a player. I saw him at World Junior & loved him. He’s not a 3 years in the AHL” project. #Oilers

    Bruce McMcCurdy ‏@BruceMcCurdy 1h1 hour ago
    Ferraro: Real impressed with Anton Lander. Harder player than I realized, better with the puck. If he’s your 3rd guy you’re in good shape”

    Bruce McMcCurdy ‏@BruceMcCurdy 57m57 minutes ago
    Ferraro: “1st time you guys see McDavid in the neutral zone, you will be amazed. Other guys slow down with the puck, he seems to speed up.”

    No worries about threadjacks. It’s a free-for-all in here most days!

  7. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Pouzar: Not to hijack too early…interesting insight from Ray Ferrero:

    A welcomed jacking.

    Ferraro would be an interesting guest on the Lowdown.

  8. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: No worries about threadjacks. It’s a free-for-all in here most days!

    The RF “seen Slepy good” has got me excited.

  9. Bag of Pucks says:

    The one element that seems a consistent thread in the best NHL organizations (i.e. those always in contention) is top flight goaltending.

    From Moog to Fuhr to Cujo to Roli, and to a lesser extent (Salo and Low), this club had an incredible run of starting goaltenders and then sometime around the end of Game 1 of the 2006 SCF, the well ran dry.

    Like Scrivens a lot as a person and was really rooting for the Spruce Grove boy but he’s a poor puck handler, his size is less than ideal for the modern game, and his rebound control is very inconsistent.

    Put Ben in a time machine and send him back a few decades and he’d probably look like the second coming of Eddie Giacomin or Gilles Gilbert. Unfortunately for him, the game has evolved massively and a poor save percentage just doesn’t cut it at all.

    Who knows, maybe he’ll thrive as a backup.

  10. PaperDesigner says:

    I think we have no idea what to do with Slepyshev as Oilers fans. He’s neither a top flight, play-right-away star forward prospect nor a long-term, if all goes well we have a fourth line player long-shot. A good, not great forward prospect is practically unheard of around these parts. That he hasn’t fallen apart once in a pro league is downright perplexing.

  11. Dashingsilverfox says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): A welcomed jacking.

    Ferraro would be an interesting guest on the Lowdown.

    Ferraro would be an interesting General Manager.

    Man knows his stuff.

  12. raventalon40 says:

    I’d be interested if McLellan looks back fondly on Scrivens’ 59 save shutout.

  13. raventalon40 says:

    mujidog:
    Can we loan him to Minnesota for a few weeks so that he can regain his confidence and form?

    http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/690881

    Dubnyk credits Burke.

  14. CopperBandit says:

    Lets not forget that every goalie that has manned Edmontons net since Roloson has been an utter disappointment.

    For me a bigger problem then the name on the back of the goalies sweater is improved goalie coaching as well as an NHL Defence that doesn’t leave our tenders out to dry. Devan Dubnyk’s resurgence is living proof of this.

    Hopefully Chiarelli can address this ASAP.

  15. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    raventalon40: http://www.thescore.com/nhl/news/690881

    Dubnyk credits Burke.

    And head trajectory training with Valiquette in the summer before he joined the Yotes:

    http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=754075

  16. Bag of Pucks says:

    All we need is a goalie that plays as well as Duane Allman on Little Martha.

    So, basically….Tretiak in his prime.

    Np, Chia’s on it!

  17. v4ance says:

    “I think we’ll see PC acquire Craig Anderson or Corey Crawford or Antti Niemi. I believe we’ll see a famous goalie.”

    To me, this will be Chiarelli’s biggest test. I firmly believe goalies past age 32 are the least reliable bets to make and we should NOT pick any of the mentioned players. The way to get a dependable starting goalie, is BEFORE they become “famous” like Tampa did with Ben Bishop or NJ did with Schneider.

    Unfortunately this involves some risk but to me it’s just as risky that the “big name” goalie who has miles and miles of tread and is just about to see his effectiveness dissipate. I know the bet didn’t work out with Scrivens and Fasth but we need to get this right or we’ll have another boat anchor contract dragging on our cap.

  18. Mtl-oiler says:

    I really hope that Chia’s answer to the goaltending question is not named Crawford, Ward or Howard.
    All 3 are on the wrong side of 30 and would kill any cap room ($6M, 6.3M & 5.3M per season respectively) to sign at least 1 quality UFA D.

    Anderson would be a good bet but only if the price is not too high (2016 2nd + middle prospect is the max).

    I’m OK with Niemi as it would not cost any assets and as long as it is in the 3yr x $4M range.

    This will be the new GMs first test to see if he learned anything about cap management from his relatively poor handling of it in Boston. If he brings in any of the 1st three it will be bad start to his tenure and destroy the optimism I’ve had in the last month.

  19. Pouzar says:

    PaperDesigner:
    I think we have no idea what to do with Slepyshev as Oilers fans. He’s neither a top flight, play-right-away star forward prospect nor a long-term, if all goes well we have a fourth line player long-shot. A good, not great forward prospect is practically unheard of around these parts. That he hasn’t fallen apart once in a pro league is downright perplexing.

    A first rd talent is a first rd talent. We wait.

  20. John Chambers says:

    The optimal outcome this offseason is to obtain two goalies with low cap hits (Talbot, Raanta, Neuvirth, etc) while relieving ourselves of Scrivens’ salary. It’s a tall order, and perhaps the next best thing is a proven #1 like Crawford who can make 65 starts.

    Scrivens can make it as an NHL backup but not likely with the Oilers. He had his shot and it didn’t go well, and now he has to break his back like Batman in the Dark Knight before he can come back reformed and ready to stop a clapper from outside the blueline.

  21. Metal&Oil says:

    I would have no problem with Scrivens getting another shot at being #1. Rather than go for a Nemi, Anderson or Crawford I’d like for the Oilers to drastically improve our goalie coaching & acquire a cheaper guy like Marian Jones or Andrei Vaslevskiy and use our Cap Room to provide who ever mans our net some defensive support.

  22. nelson88 says:

    Get Craig Anderson and keep Scrivens. Yes he sucked last year. His puck handling adventures very early in the season that led directly to losses crushed his confidence and the teams.

    However; as LT pointed out he has had a track record of pretty good numbers and by all accounts is a stand up individual who is “good in the room.” Very desirable quality in a back up goalie.

    I predict they keep him and he has a strong bounce back year in a diminished role.

  23. G Money says:

    Miscellaneous points re: Scrivens:

    – He is now a career .905 goalie. Backup territory. Last year was an anomaly on the downside and the previous games were an anomaly to the upside.

    – That’s the funny thing about goalies, I think most of their years are anomalies. It’s the average years that are the exception.

    – He’s likely settling in to where he’s going to be, unless he suddenly has a breakout year.

    – The goalies this year were not bad because of the defense. If you don’t believe the stats, just watch the games. Scrivens and Fasth let in more easy goals this year than Carey Price probably will in his entire career. They left their defense out to dry way more often than the other way round.

    – If you think there is a systemic problem, I would suggest the easier target is locker room morale. It was terrible, we know this. (Of course, that doesn’t explain why the goalies were still terrible after Nelson took over and morale improved).

    – If you support sending Scrivens away after ~50ish anomalously terrible games, then you must also agree that MacT sending Dubnyk out after ~30ish anomalously terrible games was a good idea. You can’t support the first and disagree with the second.

  24. Dashingsilverfox says:

    John Chambers:
    The optimal outcome this offseason is to obtain two goalies with low cap hits (Talbot, Raanta, Neuvirth, etc) while relieving ourselves of Scrivens’ salary. It’s a tall order, and perhaps the next best thing is a proven #1 like Crawford who can make 65 starts.

    Scrivens can make it as an NHL backup but not likely with the Oilers. He had his shot and it didn’t go well, and now he has to break his back like Batman in the Dark Knight before he can come back reformed and ready to stop a clapper from outside the blueline.

    That would be another example of going all in before the flop with a pair of 8’s.

    They already tried that strategy and it didn’t work.

    The Oilers need an established above average starter.

    Scrivens would be an acceptable backup.

  25. G Money says:

    nelson88: His puck handling adventures very early in the season that led directly to losses crushed his confidence and the teams.

    This might very well be true.

    I would hazard that it’s also possible that he just couldn’t handle the pressure of being the true starting goalie for the first time in his career.

    Either way, a better start to this year might indeed lead to a bounceback year.

  26. anonymous says:

    Mtl-oiler:
    I really hope that Chia’s answer to the goaltending question is not named Crawford, Ward or Howard.
    All 3 are on the wrong side of 30 and would kill any cap room ($6M, 6.3M & 5.3M per season respectively) to sign at least 1 quality UFA D.

    Anderson would be a good bet but only if the price is not too high (2016 2nd + middle prospect is the max).

    I’m OK with Niemi as it would not cost any assets and as long as it is in the 3yr x $4M range.

    This will be the new GMs first test to see if he learned anything about cap management from his relatively poor handling of it in Boston. If he brings in any of the 1st three it will be bad start to his tenure and destroy the optimism I’ve had in the last month.

    I think I would take Howard on a salary dump. Should be consistent enough. That should be all you’d need with the high octane offence they’ll be running soon.

  27. square_wheels says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    We spoke of this a couple weeks back, I’m perplexed he hasn’t been given a chance even in an assistants role.

    Maybe he’s too honest?

  28. Melman says:

    Dashingsilverfox: That would be another example of going all in before the flop with a pair of 8’s.

    They already tried that strategy and it didn’t work.

    The Oilers need an established above average starter.

    Scrivens would be an acceptable backup.

    Well said

  29. nelson88 says:

    G Money,

    Agreed on the starter pressure although that surprised me a bit with Scrivens as he seems pretty mentally tough. I tend to believe successful goalies have to be strong enough to give the big “FU” to media, fans, even coaches (ie. Roloson, Tim Thomas, Eddie B) from time to time. It is particularly important trait if you play for a “bad” team. That is the primary reason I think Craig Anderson is a good fit if they can acquire him for a reasonable cost.

    I forget the exact game but it was one of the first two or three where Scrivens came out of his net and played the puck late in the game off the left half wall to a Flame (Canuck?) for the easy tying (winning?) goal. It was all downhill from there.

  30. Mtl-oiler says:

    anonymous,

    Four years at $5.3M, 31 years old, I think in less than 2 years we’re looking at how dump that salary ourselves. I don’t think it’s a good gamble.
    We need a younger goalie that’s not expensive and that can grow with the team.

  31. Rondo says:

    Corey Pronman did a mock draft today for the 30 teams. He has Oilers taking Jeremy Bracco at #16.

    I think not I would think Jeremy Roy or maybe depending on research by Oilers Oliver Kylington and maybe Cabot. or forwards Kyle Connor, Evgeny Svechnikov, or Travis Konecny,

  32. Dashingsilverfox says:

    square_wheels:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    We spoke of this a couple weeks back, I’m perplexed he hasn’t been given a chance even in an assistants role.

    Maybe he’s too honest?

    Perhaps…although I’m sure he would adjust his tenor if employed by an NHL team although I’m convinced he has the type of personality that would result in him not taking shit from anyone.

    That’s a good thing IMO.

  33. G Money says:

    nelson88: I forget the exact game but it was one of the first two or three where Scrivens came out of his net and played the puck late in the game off the left half wall to a Flame (Canuck?) for the easy tying (winning?) goal. It was all downhill from there.

    Oh, I remember that one well! It was the very first game against the Flameos.

    Two mishandled pucks by Scrivens and a 2-0 lead for the Flames early in the first period. Basically, the first two scoring chances for the Flames were goals. Then the Oilers played quite possibly the best game I have ever seen them play in the last five years, from about 7:00 of the first period to about 4:00 of the third period. Absolute dominance. The shot attempts were something like 50 to 15.

    They tied up 2-2.

    Then in the third period, about 4 minutes in – and Scrivens lets in a softie from the blue line. And that was all she wrote. The Oilers deflated, the Flames puffed up, and the game ends 5-2.

    The Corsi/Scoring chance chart on war-on-ice perfectly captures that game.

    The game was also a reflection of the two teams seasons.

    A better start this year, especially for the goalies, could make all the difference in the world.

  34. Cahoon says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    All-in pre flop pair of 8s is not an awful strategy.

  35. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    I’d rather do this:

    Go out and get Niemi to stabilize the goaltending. He’s not likely to be a championship-winning goaltending but what these young guys need to feel better about themselves is .915 behind them. Niemi can bring that. MTL-OILER said 3 x $4M. Sounds about right and that’s the number I’ve been thinking for the past 5 months. There aren’t many teams in need of a starter. It just makes sense for Niemi to come here.

    Run Niemi/Scrivens this year but work on acquiring the next one. I think trading for a good, young goalie is going to be an expensive proposition as teams just know how desperate the Oilers are to fill in that piece of the puzzle and no one is going to do them any favours. But if they get a Niemi type to stabilize the net and work on acquiring a Vasilevsky (or whomever they identify as the target), I think everyone can breathe a bit easier.

    Now, as many have pointed out, securing goal is important, but you can’t just do that and not add two bona fide D. So that’s the very next thing Chia should work on.

    LA Kings fans seem to think they have Sekera wrapped up but the closer we get to June the more hope I have he decides he may want to test the market after all.

  36. flyfish1168 says:

    PC is familiar with Niklas Svedberg. Just maybe there is a deal.

  37. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Cahoon:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    All-in pre flop pair of 8s is not an awful strategy.

    It’s a terrible strategy.

  38. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    LA management needs to pull its head out of its collective ass and address those albatross contracts. Talk about offering players north of 30 too much for too long…..

    Hard to believe they’ve got themselves in a situation where this is the last year of the Kopitar deal and he’s UFA and they get to enjoy paying Richards,Brown, Gaborik and Clifford 18M until 20-21 season.

  39. Dashingsilverfox says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    I’d rather do this:

    Go out and get Niemi to stabilize the goaltending. He’s not likely to be a championship-winning goaltending but what these young guys need to feel better about themselves is .915 behind them. Niemi can bring that. MTL-OILER said 3 x $4M. Sounds about right and that’s the number I’ve been thinking for the past 5 months. There aren’t many teams in need of a starter. It just makes sense for Niemi to come here.

    Run Niemi/Scrivens this year but work on acquiring the next one. I think trading for a good, young goalie is going to be an expensive proposition as teams just know how desperate the Oilers are to fill in that piece of the puzzle and no one is going to do them any favours.But if they get a Niemi type to stabilize the net and work on acquiring a Vasilevsky (or whomever they identify as the target), I think everyone can breathe a bit easier.

    Now, as many have pointed out, securing goal is important, but you can’t just do that and not add two bona fide D. So that’s the very next thing Chia should work on.

    LA Kings fans seem to think they have Sekera wrapped up but the closer we get to June the more hope I have he decides he may want to test the market after all.

    Niemi may well be the best option in goal.

    But I doubt Sekera will be an Oiler.

    LA has too much pull.

    If he does test the market…there are several teams with more cap space and better locales.

  40. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    square_wheels,

    Sekera is 28, I believe. But your point does stand. Thing is, a lot of teams seem to do it after winning a Cup or coming close. The Oilers handed out a lot of fat contracts post-2006, too.

    That Dustin Brown contract, though. Yikes.

  41. square_wheels says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    What’s the precedence if players face US prison or deported assume Voynov’s contract is negated as soon as he’s punted from US of A ?

  42. Mtl-oiler says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    I agree. It seems to be a buyers market for goalies and so we should be able to get Niemi at a reasonable price.

    Sekera seems to be the best bet of the UFAs but I would look at Ehrhoff as well. A one year deal with heavy performance bonuses. It didn’t work out in Pitt. the way he planned but maybe he could find his game with McDavid and the Oilers young guns. At the same time he could act as mentor to his fellow German Drai.

  43. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    square_wheels,

    I don’t believe there is a clear precedent here, but Lombardi managed to get the rules bent and got cap relief last season, so I imagine he does find a way to get Voynov off the books and clear space for Sekera.

  44. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Mtl-oiler,

    I don’t like the Ehrhoff bet for the Oilers at all. It didn’t work out because of severe, recurring concussion symptoms. He missed 14 out of 15 games through February and March for that, came back, got hit 2 shifts into a game and did not return the rest of the season. That is worrying.

    If the Oilers were a team with depth on the blue line who could afford to sign Ehrhoff on a show-me deal for the bottom pairing where he either recovers and does really well and it’s a great bet and he moves up the order or the next time he gets hit hard his season is over and the team can cover that scenario, fine.

    I don’t see the Oilers in that situation. Pass on Ehrhoff. Just too much risk with that kind of injury, imo.

  45. Dashingsilverfox says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    square_wheels,

    I don’t believe there is a clear precedent here, but Lombardi managed to get the rules bent and got cap relief last season, so I imagine he does find a way to get Voynov off the books and clear space for Sekera.

    NHL teams have always been able to get US immigration to overlook felonies…many players convicted of drug offences have been able to keep playing.

  46. Dashingsilverfox says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    Mtl-oiler,

    I don’t like the Ehrhoff bet for the Oilers at all. It didn’t work out because of severe, recurring concussion symptoms.He missed 14 out of 15 games through February and March for that, came back, got hit 2 shifts into a game and did not return the rest of the season. That is worrying.

    If the Oilers were a team with depth on the blue line who could afford to sign Ehrhoff on a show-me deal for the bottom pairing where he either recovers and does really well and it’s a great bet and he moves up the order or the next time he gets hit hard his season is over and the team can cover that scenario, fine.

    I don’t see the Oilers in that situation. Pass on Ehrhoff. Just too much risk with that kind of injury, imo.

    Heard on the radio today that Ehrhoff is interested in returning to Vancouver.

  47. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Dashingsilverfox,

    But in this case I think Lombardi wants to get rid of Voynov and replace him with Sekera. He doesn’t want anyone to overlook anything except the cap hit on that contract.

  48. Wolfie says:

    I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Scrivens is not the problem.

    I think Darcy did a great job putting together adjusted save percentages and that’s great. However, I don’t think it accounts for the mental aspect of goaltending.

    I think the work done is useful but be very careful in how you use it to assess goalies. When I look at the charts compiled and I see Scrivens put up poor numbers in Toronto and Edmonton but pretty stellar numbers in LA. That’s not all that surprising. When I think back to when Scrivens was first acquired by the Oilers he played pretty well. But over time his sv% started to erode.

    I would hazard to guess that Edmonton and Toronto give up more premium chances than LA. I would think that the volume of better chances has a carryover effect. A goalie can survive or thrive for awhile in a poor environment but sooner or later the weight of the volume of high quality chances will erode his game and confidence.

    Look at Bernier’s numbers. Very good in LA and good in Toronto at the beginning but now we are seeing cracks in the armour. The volume of quality chances likely is increased and the cumulative effect is coming to bear.

    If you look at Dubnyk it’s sort of the reverse. He actually did very well at the start of his Oilers career but eroded as the hounds were unleashed game after game. Is it any wonder he found his game in Phoenix and continued his strong play in Minnesota?

    There is only one goalie who has been able to buck that trend…. Dominik Hasek.

    It wasn’t the goalie when Dubnyk was in town. I doubt it’s Scrivens either…

  49. Dashingsilverfox says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    But in this case I think Lombardi wants to get rid of Voynov and replace him with Sekera. He doesn’t want anyone to overlook anything except the cap hit on that contract.

    Voynov at $4M is one hell of a deal if his legal troubles go away.

  50. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Wolfie,

    FRJOHNK and Woodguy have done some work on the “more premium” chances of which you speak and posted their results here (forgive me if I am missing others). It actually IS the goalies. Scrivens and Fasth were both terrible last year in this regard.

  51. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Voynov at $4M is one hell of a deal if his legal troubles go away.

    Oh, no doubt. But I don’t think Dean thinks that is realistic so next best thing is wiggling out from under that contract and cap hit and replacing him with Sekera.

  52. Mtl-oiler says:

    I hope the Oilers are able to draft Daniel Vladar with a 3rd or 4th pick.

    http://thehockeywriters.com/daniel-vladar-the-next-ones-nhl-2015-draft-prospect-profile/

    They would then have Darth Vladar and E2TU as a possible goaltending duo.

  53. Bag of Pucks says:

    Cahoon:
    Dashingsilverfox,

    All-in pre flop pair of 8s is not an awful strategy.

    http://www.pokerology.com/charts/flhe-starting-hands-chart.pdf

  54. G Money says:

    TSN is broadcasting the spelling bee.

    These kids are fucking incredible. Incredible.

  55. G Money says:

    Wolfie: It wasn’t the goalie when Dubnyk was in town. I doubt it’s Scrivens either…

    When your goalie gives up five soft goals in the very first game of the season while the team in front of him absolutely dominates the other … sorry. Not the defense. Its the goalie.

  56. Bag of Pucks says:

    G Money:
    TSN is broadcasting the spelling bee.

    These kids are fucking incredible.Incredible.

    Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious come up yet?

  57. Bag of Pucks says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Voynov at $4M is one hell of a deal if his legal troubles go away.

    Given Voynov’s wife is the key witness for the prosecution, what are you suggesting exactly?

    DSF knows people who know people who kill people?

  58. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    G Money: These kids are fucking incredible.

    They say the use of profanity stems from a limited vocabulary 🙂

  59. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Bag of Pucks: Given Voynov’s wife is the key witness for the prosecution, what are you suggesting exactly?

    And she still refuses to testify, according to what I read recently.

  60. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Bag of Pucks: Given Voynov’s wife is the key witness for the prosecution, what are you suggesting exactly?

    DSF knows people who know people who kill people?

    Voynov’s wife is refusing to testify against him.

  61. Bag of Pucks says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Voynov’s wife is refusing to testify against him.

    So you got to her already. You bastard.

  62. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:
  63. G Money says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1): They say the use of profanity stems from a limited vocabulary

    Very true. It took everything I had two knot mispel the word.

    AH!

    FUOCK!!!!

  64. Dashingsilverfox says:
  65. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Dashingsilverfox:
    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    Ran across this:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-32888643

    Right up your alley.

    Thank you for sharing that. Some incredible images in there. 1, 10, 14 especially for me. That first image is fantastic.

  66. dustrock says:

    Suspect she’ll fudge her testimony, which happens often in domestic violence cases. Or if booze was involved could be reasonable doubt.

    I feel like it’s easier to acquire & fire replacement level goaltending than it is to acquire solid defence. Get Anderson, Talbot, who cares. Improve the D.

  67. Dashingsilverfox says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: Thank you for sharing that. Some incredible images in there. 1, 10, 14 especially for me. That first image is fantastic.

    14 caught my eye.

  68. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Why don’t the Oilers try what Pittsburgh did this past season and bring in a ton of Germans?
    Sign Goc to mentor Draisaitl on how to play both ends of the ice.
    This would require trading Gordon.
    Sign Greiss to be backup.
    This would require firing Scrivens into the sun.
    Sign Ehrhoff to a 1 year performance driven deal.
    This would require getting rid of Nikitin or Ference.
    Trade for Seidenberg to help Boston manage their cap.
    Sign UFA Korbinian Holzer as the 7th Dman.
    Acquire Grubauer from the Caps for a pick to shore up goaltending depth where he can split time with Brossoit in Bakersfield.
    Send Kessy back to Arizona for Rieder and throw in Marc Olivier Roy or Pitlick to complete the deal.

  69. Dashingsilverfox says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Why don’t the Oilers try what Pittsburgh did this past season and bring in a ton of Germans?
    Sign Goc to mentor Draisaitl on how to play both ends of the ice.
    This would require trading Gordon.
    Sign Greiss to be backup.
    This would require firing Scrivens into the sun.
    Sign Ehrhoff to a 1 year performance driven deal.
    This would require getting rid of Nikitin or Ference.
    Trade for Seidenberg to help Boston manage their cap.
    Sign UFA Korbinian Holzer as the 7th Dman.
    Acquire Grubauer from the Caps for a pick to shore up goaltending depth where he can split time with Brossoit in Bakersfield.
    Send Kessy back to Arizona for Rieder and throw in Marc Olivier Roy or Pitlick to complete the deal.

    Just don’t mention the war. 🙂

    https://youtu.be/yfl6Lu3xQW0

  70. Barcs says:

    As far as goalies go, I would inquire on how dear Bernier is to Toronto.

    He will cost a fair bit, no doubt, but he just seems to check off so many boxes.

    History of ability. Had a great year last year, and an alright one this year, but judging by how many shots the Leafs allowed thisyearr, am alright year becomes a pretty good one.

    He’s young enough not to erode too quickly, 27 years of age.

    He showed up well in Woodguy’s article.

    He is currently an RFA coming off a “down” year, so there may be an opportunity to get value on a new deal, either in dollars or term.

    The Leafs have Reimer who they could turn to as a starte (pperhaps they would welcome Scrivens back hopinghhe returns to form in his old city).

    Also, for what it is worth, there have been rumours that Bernier doesn’t want to go through the rebuild that Toronto has planned out.

    I’m hesitant to pose a trade, but could you build around the 33rd pick in a deal? Is adding Marincin to that about right or too much?

    Bernier seems to me to have both the reliability PC would be looking for, without the risk of falling off due to age.

    Thoughts?

  71. wordbird says:

    Mtl-oiler:
    I really hope that Chia’s answer to the goaltending question is not named Crawford, Ward or Howard.
    All 3 are on the wrong side of 30 and would kill any cap room ($6M, 6.3M & 5.3M per season respectively) to sign at least 1 quality UFA D.

    Anderson would be a good bet but only if the price is not too high (2016 2nd + middle prospect is the max).

    I’m OK with Niemi as it would not cost any assets and as long as it is in the 3yr x $4M range.

    This will be the new GMs first test to see if he learned anything about cap management from his relatively poor handling of it in Boston. If he brings in any of the 1st three it will be bad start to his tenure and destroy the optimism I’ve had in the last month.

    Agreed. Anderson/Niemi make sense if they are affordable and are willing to tandem with a ready younger goalie. Betting all your chips on Anderson playing 60+ games is risky. But 30-40 starts in tandem with an Enroth or Gibson, that’s more like it.

    And I’d pick Anderson over Niemi hands down, despite his age/injury history. He’s the goalie equivalent of Livan Hernandez (ol’ wiley vet that eats innings)!

  72. Aitch says:

    If a goalie could come in and start the season hot, instead of freezing cold like they have the past two seasons, maybe the team’s confidence will improve enough to get them over that mental hurdle of being a losing team. I’m traditionally a goalie apologist but the past two Octobers have been downright brutal.

    Personally, I’m in the acquire a confident back-up from somewhere else rather than sign or trade for the expensive veteran.

  73. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Just don’t mention the war.

    https://youtu.be/yfl6Lu3xQW0

    One of the all time great skits. Ha ha. Never gets old!

  74. Магия 10 says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”: One of the all time great skits. Ha ha. Never gets old!

    We’d like to think that the oil are no longer under fawlty management

  75. frjohnk says:

    Barcs:
    As far as goalies go, I would inquire on how dear Bernier is to Toronto.

    He will cost a fair bit, no doubt, but he just seems to check off so many boxes.

    History of ability. Had a great year last year, and an alright one this year, but judging by how many shots the Leafs allowed thisyearr, am alright year becomes a pretty good one.

    He’s young enough not to erode too quickly, 27 years of age.

    He showed up well in Woodguy’s article.

    He is currently an RFA coming off a “down” year, so there may be an opportunity to get value on a new deal, either in dollars or term.

    The Leafs have Reimer who they could turn to as a starte (pperhaps they would welcome Scrivens back hopinghhe returns to form in his old city).

    Also, for what it is worth, there have been rumours that Bernier doesn’t want to go through the rebuild that Toronto has planned out.

    I’m hesitant to pose a trade, but could you build around the 33rd pick in a deal? Is adding Marincin to that about right or too much?

    Bernier seems to me to have both the reliability PC would be looking for, without the risk of falling off due to age.

    Thoughts?

    I like Bernier, I think his bad or down year was just this past year and he put up around league average numbers through the Toronto train wreck this past year. His 5 on 5 save % was 0.922 and his all situation save % was 0.912 this past year. But with Carlyle this year, it was 0.929 and 0.916 respectively. Toronto’s defence was worse than the oilers, actually the Leafs defence was the worst in the league except Buffalo.

    Last year his save % was .930 5 on 5, while it was 0.923 during all situations, both well above average.

    Bernier does check off a lot of boxes, but he would cost some assets.

    The following list is a few goalies that could be some targets for the oilers. I took their save % in each of the metrics of high, medium, and low areas and then figured out their expected save % and expected goals against average when faced with what the oilers gave up in shots against in those 3 shot area locations.

    Save % when facing what oilers give up in shots

    Antti.Raanta 0.932

    Devan.Dubnyk 0.923

    Cam.Talbot 0.922

    Corey.Crawford 0.920

    Jonathan.Bernier 0.913

    Craig.Anderson 0.912 (49.5% of the shots he faced came from the high and medium danger areas. The Oilers goalies on the other hand, had 58% of the shots they faced from the high and medium danger areas.) That’s why his save % takes an ass kicking here

    Kari Ramo 0.912

    Antti.Niemi 0.911

    Michal.Neuvirth 0.910

    Cam.Ward 0.905

    Martin.Jones 0.903

    Jimmy.Howard 0.902

    Jhonas.Enroth 0.901

    Robin.Lehner 0.900

  76. godot10 says:

    G Money: When your goalie gives up five soft goals in the very first game of the season while the team in front of him absolutely dominates the other … sorry.Not the defense.Its the goalie.

    When one goaltender sucks through training camp, and the other one doesn’t, and the coach starts the season with the one who sucked in pre-season, it is not the players, it is the demented coach.

  77. Rod from Viking says:

    The Oilers new head coach saw Ben play lights out against his former team, he seems like a real character person and his family are fantastic in the community, I am hoping with some real stability in the GM’s chair and behind the bench and with a couple of additions on the blue line and another possible #1 alike a Talbot Ben will earn another contract with the team even as a back-up.

  78. Lowetide says:

    Rod from Viking:
    The Oilers new head coach saw Ben play lights out against his former team, he seems like a real character person and his family are fantastic in the community, I am hoping with some real stability in the GM’s chair and behind the benchand with a couple of additions on the blue line and another possible #1 alike a TalbotBen will earn another contract with the team even as a back-up.

    Well put, Rod.

  79. Oilanderp says:

    Get. Some. Defence.

  80. Barcs says:

    frjohnk,

    This definitely suggests not going with some of the older goaltending options out there.

    Interesting to see Crawford coming out on the higher end. While not my first choice, I don’t think I’d be too upset if that was who PC acquired. Just that contract, ugh.

    And I know it’ll never happen in a million years, but boy it would be nice if DD were to come back to Edmonton.

    Also surprised at how poorly Enroth shows here. I’m assuming for both he and Raanta that sample size might be an issue?

  81. Doug McLachlan says:

    Keep Scrivins as a backup but get an established number one. Talbot is another backup who might be a starter. Hall and co have earned the real thing.

    On D, I liked Cullen’s suggestion of Michalek as an option. His sledgehammer bubble was a lovely shade of blue.

  82. Soup Fascist says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Heard on the radio today that Ehrhoff is interested in returning to Vancouver.

    Wow. The concussion issues are worse than we thought.

  83. Soup Fascist says:

    Bag of Pucks: Supercalifragilisticexpialidocious come up yet?

    I think you misspelled Krzyzewski.

  84. PhrankLee says:

    The sad tale of poor Benji Scrivens.

    Well I want to retain him. As back up at least. We cannot squander the contract. I’d walk away from Fasth.

    Procuring a top 10 G would be my priority. Addressing the issues with this position within the organization and establishing even a little depth is already under way. I expect a free agent hiring and a draft pick spent on this department.

    A Spruce Grove G on the team is a little hard to ignore for the fan in me. Add his character to that and I’m even happier.
    But the starter job just got serious. See: ALJ. This kid is going to change absolutely everything. He’s going to be a target and a frustration and a genius and a highlight reel and an ambassador and a salesman and an apologist and a martyr and a spokesman and a, and a….
    In many ways I worry about the kid.

  85. raventalon40 says:

    Dashingsilverfox: Voynov at $4M is one hell of a deal if his legal troubles go away.

    Purcell for Voynov. hahaha

  86. G Money says:

    godot10: When one goaltender sucks through training camp, and the other one doesn’t, and the coach starts the season with the one who sucked in pre-season, it is not the players, it is the demented coach.

    Eakins still has you ruined, eh?

    Yes, this is one of a number of highly questionable personnel decisions from your favourite Harry Potter character.

    But to suggest the bad goaltending performance over the course of the year was somehow a result of that choice, is pretty much nonsense.

    What’s your theory, that Scrivens was mad because he didn’t get enough rest to start the season, and Fasth spent the season sulking because “boo hoo it should have been me starting the first game”?

  87. Yeti says:

    G Money: What’s your theory, that Scrivens was mad because he didn’t get enough rest to start the season, and Fasth spent the season sulking because “boo hoo it should have been me starting the first game”?

    It’s not a theory, it’s a fact. Once the hand of Eakins has been laid upon your torso, your soul is removed and you are rendered an empty husk. How are you meant to stop pucks without a soul, GMoney? Bet you don’t have a data set for that one.

  88. G Money says:

    Yeti,

    Ah!

    Scrivens: “Dammit, I lost sight of that shot from the blue line because, you know, MY SOUL IS MISSING.”

    Fasth: “Boo hoo, how can I save pucks with no soul?”

    I have no data on this one, but I don’t need data – I have a soul.

    Also: maybe Taylor Hall doesn’t lack character, he lacks a soul. Food for thought.

  89. PhrankLee says:

    G Money,
    Yeti,

    You don’t have a soul, man.

    You have a body.

    You are a soul.

  90. pts2pndr says:

    LT

    Ben Scrivens is a great guy and a local boy but he has shown he is at this time NOT an nhl calibre goalie! Look at his save percentage. He throws himself at the puck making it impossible to make the second save! He is a disaster when handling the puck. He goes down early and plays back in his net. Right now he is a fundamental mess! I know the heart wants him to be successful and he deserves another chance but not at the expense of the team! The success of the team always has to be priority one!

  91. TheGreatMutato says:

    G Money: When your goalie gives up five soft goals in the very first game of the season while the team in front of him absolutely dominates the other … sorry.Not the defense.Its the goalie.

    Hah – I just went and found the game day thread for opening night and I’ll be damned if we weren’t already looking forward to McDavid. Stan Weir came through for us in the end.

  92. russ99 says:

    Chiarelli has to ask himself if Bachman or Broissoit would give us close to what Scrivens would in a backup role at a fraction of the cap space.

    If it were me, I’d move him as long as the starter we get is a true #1 and can give us 60+ games at a high level.

  93. grim.oil says:

    Dubnyk is sooo over rated. Sure he is big and makes some huge dynamic saves but he also lets in soft goals repeatedly. Has everyone forgot his time here in Edmonton already. Vezina goalie my ass. He is one of the slowest I have seen moving across the crease. Its no wonder he faultered in Edm. And is successful in Min. Edmonton will never play that tight defensive style the Wild play and therfore Dubnyk would never be great in Edmonton even if we had the best D in the game. He got exposed against Chicago. A true goal scoring team. Edmonton needs a acrobatic goalie not a positional one like Dubnyk. I would trade Dubnyk for Hendricks all over again. That was and still is a good trade in my book.

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