We’re getting closer now. I’ve run through all the leagues and countries, with only the overagers to go (and one Canadian college player, I’ve added the Swiss guy who kept showing up in interesting places). It’s a lot of fun to count down the final weeks, with the Bob McKenzie list getting an early release yesterday. My top 120 is below, with tweaks here and there, plus Bob McKenzie’s final number for each player who made his list (in brackets). So, it’s my number this week (my number last week) (Bob McKenzie’s number).
LOWETIDE TOP 120, 2015
- (1) (1) C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) Eternal sunshine.
- (2) (2) C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) Buffalo Sabres get franchise center. Amazing luck. Seriously.
- (3) (4) R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) He’ll go No. 4 or No. 5
- (4) (3) D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) Arizona has first shot. Do they draft him, then deal OEL?
- (5) (5) C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) I think he goes No. 3 or No. 4 overall.
- (6) (8) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) Quality offensive player, good defender.
- (7) (9) C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) Fantastic player. If he falls, EDM grabs him.
- (8) (10) R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML) Has a wide range of skills, good size.
- (9) (11) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA) Terrific offensive defender.
- (12) (18) L Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton (QMJHL) Big, strong and skilled. Magic hands.
- (11) (12) R Timo Meier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) Tremendous talent, NHL-ready?
- (10) (17) R Nick Merkley, Kelowna Rockets (WHL) Impressive offensive player.
- (13) (15) C Travis Konecny, Ottawa 67’s (OHL) Impressive player, range of skills. Modern Bobby Clarke.
- (14) (29) D Jeremy Roy, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL) Offensive D, has ability as a defender.
- (15) (43) C Anthony Beauvillier, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) Small, elite skills. 5.16 shots/game.
- (18) (6) C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia Sting (OHL). Big, physical center with average offense. Solid U18’s.
- (17) (7) L Lawson Crouse, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) Power forward with some offensive skills.
- (16) (13) C Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL) Smart two-way forward.
- (19) (30) C Jansen Harkins, Prince George Cougars (WHL) Two-way center, skilled.
- (20) (28) L Jake Debrusk, Swift Current (WHL) Goal-scoring winger with speed.
- (24) (14) D Jakub Zboril, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL) Two-way D, solid offense.
- (22) (24) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL) All over the map, high risk/reward pick.
- (21) (72) R Blake Speers, SSM Greyhounds (OHL) He may be my modern Marc Pouliot.
- (28) (25) D Thomas Chabot, Saint John Seadogs (QMJHL) Fine passer, solid defender.
- (29) (16) F Colin White, USNTDP (USHL) Fine skater, two-way player.
- (25) (33) R Daniel Sprong, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL) Quick, skilled first-shot scorer
- (26) (23) C Joel Eriksson Ek, Farjestad (SEL) Skill C with size, speed.
- (30) (40) R Zach Senyshyn, SSM Greyhounds (OHL) Terrific speed, no fear. Skilled.
- (36) (42) D Travis Dermott, Erie Otters (OHL) Undersized, mobile defender.
- (27) (39) C Filip Chlapik, Charlotteteown Islanders (QMJHL) Two-way C, range of skills
- (31) (26) R Brock Boeser, Waterloo Blachawks (USHL) Power winger, impressive scorer.
- (32) (55) D Ryan Pilon, Brandon (WHL) Offensive defender with size and speed.
- (34) (53) C-R Jeremy Bracco, USNTDP (USHL) Small forward with fast hands, great skill.
- (35) (NR) D Ethan Bear, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) Mobile defender, very good shot.
- (33) (NR) C Andrew Mangiapane, Barrie (OHL) Brilliant offensive player.
- (37) (21) L Denis Gurianov, Lada (MHL). Smooth offensive player, good size. Quality U18.
- (39) (20) L Paul Bittner, Portland Winterhawks (WHL) Big winger with speed and scoring ability.
- (40) (59) D Rasmus Andersson, Barrie (OHL) Boom or bust. Tremendous potential.
- (41) (46) C Mitchell Stephens, Saginaw Spirit (OHL). Speedy C had a massive U18’s.
- (42) (73) C Nicolas Roy, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL) Rugged two-way C with size.
- (43) (36) D Vince Dunn, Niagara (OHL). Smart offensive defender.
- (50) (37) D Noah Juulsen, Everett Silvertips (WHL) Good size, can play defense, some skill.
- (23) (63) D-F Mitchell Vande Sompel, Oshawa (OHL) Plays F & D, previously ranked as D.
- (44) (69) R Nikita Korostelev, Sarnia Sting (OHL) Skill winger.
- (53) (34) C Jack Roslovic, USNTDP (USHL) Playmaking C had a tremendous U18’s.
- (45) (38) L Dennis Yan, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) Scoring W with some size.
- (58) (31) D Jacob Larsson, Frolunda (SHL) Two-way defender, tall and rangy.
- (47) (NR) C Nathan Noel, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL) Wide range of skills, undersized.
- (48) (NR) L Dmytro Timashov, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) Explosive winger with crazy numbers.
- (56) (56) L Ryan Gropp, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) PF prospect, can score goals.
- (49) (44) D Nicolas Meloche, Baie-Comeau (QMJHL) Effective defender, good size.
- (38) (47) G Daniel Vladar, Kladno (Czech 2) 8GP, 1.97 .933
- (55) (41) D Erik Cernak, Kosice (Slovak) Huge defenseman with a nice range of skills.
- (46) (NR) R Jens Looke, Brynas (SHL) Playmaking winger with speed.
- (57) (NR) L Erik Foley, Cedar Rapids (USHL) Tough winger has offensive ability.
- (71) (19) G Ilya Samsonov, Magnitogorsk (Rus Jr) THE goalie prospect this year.
- (51) (58) C-R Roope Hintz, Ilves (SML) Intelligent two-way W, fine skater.
- (64) (50) D Matt Spencer, Peterborough Petes (OHL) Tough two-way defender.
- (54) (NR) F Filip Ahl, HV-71 (SHL) 6.04, 214, strong all the walls.
- (67) (22) D Brandon Carlo, Tri-City (WHL) Big, strong, mean defender.
- (59) (NR) L Vladimir Tkachev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) Small W, extremely skilled.
- (61) (49) L Graham Knott, Niagra Ice Dogs (OHL) Size, good scorer, range of skills.
- (62) (62) L Jordan Greenway, USNTDP (USHL) Power winger with skill.
- (72) (45) R Christian Fischer, USNTDP (USHL). Scoring winger with size, 7 points at U18’s.
- (52) (67) G Matej Tomek, Topeka Roadrunners (NAHL) 31GP, 1.71 .932
- (65) (60) C Julius Nattinen, JYP (Fin 2). Big skill C gaining steam during spring tournaments.
- (74) (54) C Alexander Dergachyov, St. Petersburg (Rus Jr). Giant skill C, attractive range of skills.
- (66) (57) C Thomas Novak, Waterlook Blackhawks (USHL). Skilled two-way center.
- (60) (NR) R Michael Spacek, Pardubice (Cze) Skilled, hard working.
- (69) (NR) D Vili Saarijavi, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL). Small D is a wizard. Big U18’s.
- (70) (NR) R David Kase, Chomutov (Cze-2) Skilled W, aggressive bent. Impressive U18’s.
- (78) (64) L Austin Wagner, Regina Pats (WHL). Speedy winger emerged late and can do a lot of things.
- (63) (NR) G Michael McNiven, Owen Sound Attack (OHL) 23GP, 2.78 .914
- (73) (NR) C Glenn Gawdin, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Keeps impressing with two-way skills.
- (93) (27) D Gabriel Carlsson, Linkoping (Swe Jr). Rangy defender, highly rated by Central Scouting.
- (75) (NR) L Jesse Gabrielle, Regina Pats (WHL). Projects as a scoring W—better than boxcars.
- (76) (NR) L Robin Kovacs, AIK (Allsvenskan). Skill winger with speed, rugged and pesky style.
- (77) (NR) C Tyler Soy, Victoria Royals (WHL) Lightning quick forward.
- (82) (NR) D Jesper Lindgren, Modo (Swe Jr). ‘Erik Karlsson clone’ according to Red Line.
- (89) (NR) R Connor Garland, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL). Small, extremely skilled.
- (113) (NR) L Kirill Kaprizov, Novokuznetsk (KHL). Small skill winger.
- (68) (35) G MacKenzie Blackwood, Barrie Colts (OHL). Big butterfly style goalie.
- (79) (61) C Gabriel Gagne, Victoriaville (QMJHL) Huge C, good speed, very creative offensively.
- (80) (NR) C Dante Salituro, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Small forward, terrific skill.
- (81) (NR) G Felix Sandstrom, Brynas (Super-Elite). 14GP, 2.63 .907 in SE.
- (91) (NR) D Sebastian Aho, Skelleftea (SHL). Undersized, puck mover. No. 11 LT last year.
- (94) (68) C Yakov Trenin, Gatineau Olympique (QMJHL). Skilled forward, foot speed an issue.
- (83) (NR) D Kyle Capobianco, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). Skill D had a strong finish to OHL season.
- (84) (NR) G Adin Hill, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). .921 SP and he’s 6.04
- (95) (52) C Jakov Forsbacka Karlsson, Omaha Lancers (USHL). Playmaking center, good passer.
- (85) (NR) L Sebastian Ohlsson, Skelleftea (SHL). Small skill center showed well at U18’s.
- (86) (NR) D Gustaf Bouramman, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Puck-moving D with decent size.
- (97) (65) C Adam Musil, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). Skill W, would be higher but EV scoring is troubling.
- (87) (NR) D Parker Wotherspoon, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Good skater, defender.
- (88) (NR) R Deven Sideroff, Kamloops Blazers (WHL). Skill W, hard worker, very good passer.
- (NR) (NR) C Dennis Malgin, SZC (Swi). Small, fast, extremely skilled center.
- (90) (NR) R Lukas Jasek, Trinec (Czech). Smart two-way forward with skill.
- (101) (NR) L Sebastian Aho, Karpat (SM-Liiga). Smart, skilled offensive player.
- (92) (NR) C Anthony Richard, Vad d’Or (QMJHL). Great skater, quality offense.
- (NR) (32) D Jonas Siegenthaler, SZC (Swiss). Big defender, can pass the puck well.
- (NR) (48) D Guillaume Brisebois, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). Tall, rangy D, skates well.
- (96) (NR) C Giorgio Estephan, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Skill player on a bad team.
- (98) (NR) C Brett McKenzie, North Bay Battalion (OHL). Two-way C with skill.
- (105) (74) D Dennis Gilbert, Chicago Steel (USHL). Huge defender, skilled. Red Line loves him.
- (99) (NR) C Brad Morrison, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Speedy and creative center.
- (100) (NR) R Jeremiah Addison, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Playoffs were fantastic showcase.
- (102) (NR) L Adam Helewka, Spokane Chiefs (WHL) Smart winger who can score goals.
- (103) (NR) L Mihkail Vorobyov, Ufa, Rus Jr. Big W, some offense. 6.02, 198. Impressed U18’s.
- (104) (NR) D Thomas Schemitsch, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Intelligent two-way defender.
- (106) (NR) G Joren Van Pottelberghe, Linkoping (Swe Jrs). 11GP, 1.89 .924. Fantastic numbers.
- (107) (70) D Brendan Guhle, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Sleeping giant, range of skills.
- (108) (NR) R Taggart Corriveau, Westminster Prep (USHS) Impressive size/skill. PP demon.
- (109) (NR) D John Marino, South Shore Kings (USHS) Undersized skill D, stock is rising.
- (110) (NR) D Veeti Vainio, Espoo (Fin Jr). 6.02, 170, mobile D who can pass the puck, defend well.
- (111) (NR) D Vladislav Gavrikov, Yaroslavl (KHL). Two-way D with size and skill. He’s a 1995.
- (112) (NR) D Simon Bourque, Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL). Two-way D, mobile, powerful skater.
- (114) (NR) R Kay Schweri, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL). Fantastic playmaker.
- (115) (NR) C Brayden Burke, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Was very good in half a season.
- (116) (NR) D Jeremy Lauzon, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL). Tall, lean D, good foot speed.
- (NR) (NR) D Andrew Nielson, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Big two-way defender
ON MCKENZIE’S LIST BUT NOT LOWETIDE LIST
- (51) G Callum Booth, Quebec Remparts. Big goalie, 41GP, 3.05 .900.
- (66) G Samuel Montembeault, Boisbriand (QMJHL) 52GP, .891
- (71) C Anthony Cirelli, Oshawa Generals (OHL). Fast skater, good skill, Memorial Cup wizard.
- (75) R Brendan Warren, USNDTP (USHL). Projects as a hard working checker.
Now that we know the McKenzie list—and it’s three weeks early—we can actually look at what a value draft might look like. I’ll use my list against the McKenzie (which is the prevailing list, it’s very accurate) and see what kind of damage Edmonton might be able to do:
- No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid (No. 1 on both lists)
- No. 16 overall: L Evgeni Svechnikov (No. 10 on my list, No. 17 on BM’s list)
- No. 33 overall: C Anthony Beauvillier (No. 15 on my list, No. 43 on BM’s list)
- No. 57 overall: R Blake Speers (No. 23 on my list, No. 72 on BM’s list)
- No. 79 overall: D Ethan Bear (No. 34 on my list, NR on BM’s list)
- No. 86 overall: C Andrew Mangiapane (No. 35 on my list, NR on BM’s list)
Now, I know the Oilers won’t draft three centers, a Russian, a skill winger and one blue, but that’s a stunning amount of skill in the first six selections.
The Draft Analyst draft profile: RW/C Evgeny Svechnikov, Cape Brenton (QMJHL). Ranked 17th (NA) by NHL's CSB pic.twitter.com/3oOVakc3x0
— Steve Kournianos (@TheDraftAnalyst) May 19, 2015
— Thomas Drance (@ThomasDrance) June 3, 2015
I tracked some numbers for Connor McDavid, Dylan Strome, Zach Senyshyn & Blake Speers from G4 of Erie vs SSM http://t.co/R7BYklHiXP
— Todd Cordell (@ToddCordell) April 29, 2015
— Kelly Friesen (@KellyFriesen) February 9, 2015
Andrew Mangiapane tops my annual re-entry list. Here are the top 10 2nd/3rd yr eligible players from the OHL for 2015 http://t.co/lHkxEzNxav
— OHL Prospects Blog (@BrockOtten) April 19, 2015
Insane. It could happen. Will it? No. I think Peter Chiarelli is a good GM (remember, as a Bruins fan, saw him build the Stanley team and watched him invest in outstanding players. His issue came after the gold rush) and Bob Green has a great reputation as a judge of amateur talent. I do think (as Bob McKenzie mentioned to Nielson and Fraser yesterday) the club could take a goalie in the first round. Why? It’s a need and the Oilers—despite everything else—draft for need. It’s ingrained in them, like drinking coffee, wearing unusual shirts and using the f-word as a noun, verb, adjective et cetera.
I want all the skill. The Oilers want to add a defenseman for now, a goalie for the future and then grab some talent while also appeasing the area scouts. It’s not the right thing to do, and maybe I’m underestimating this new group. I’ll tell you true, I believe there’s a better chance the Oilers draft MacKenzie Blackwood than Anthony Beauvillier. By the way, it’s probably reasonable to use Beauvillier as a test for the 30 teams. He’s value (imo) in the middle of round one, impressive value in round one. Anything beyond that and it’s a steal. We wait.
D-man prospect Jakub Zboril confirmed that he interviewed with the Bruins & knows David Pastrnak thru the Czech national team program
— Joe Haggerty (@HackswithHaggs) June 6, 2015
It looks like Zboril might be the fourth D (Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski) off the board, possibly to Boston at No. 14 overall. I would absolutely take the Russian Svechnikov or the winger Meier if available, but for me the No. 4 D in this draft is Jeremy Roy.
Good morning from the NHL Draft Combine, where lanky goaltender Daniel Vladar has measured in at 6'6.25" pic.twitter.com/VCOtKP0C7P
— Scott Cullen (@tsnscottcullen) June 6, 2015
Mr. Bob McKenzie has the Russian Samsonov at No. 19, I have him at No. 56. NHL scouts know far more about goaling than me, but I’m not going to put Samsonov in the first round (I’ve moved him into late second). I actually have Vladar number one among goalies (No. 52) because a .933SP is a fantastic save percentage in the basement league, but am absolutely willing to believe the Russian is better. I’m just not willing to wager a high pick on him. Peter Chiarelli? Drafted a goalie (Malcolm Subban) in the first round when his team didn’t need one—imagine what he might do with a pick like the Russian.
At noon today on SSE, Paul Almeida and I will do a mock draft of the first 16 picks, with guests checking in and making selections for teams. Details here.