ETERNAL SUNSHINE

We’re getting closer now. I’ve run through all the leagues and countries, with only the overagers to go (and one Canadian college player, I’ve added the Swiss guy who kept showing up in interesting places). It’s a lot of fun to count down the final weeks, with the Bob McKenzie list getting an early release yesterday. My top 120 is below, with tweaks here and there, plus Bob McKenzie’s final number for each player who made his list (in brackets). So, it’s my number this week (my number last week) (Bob McKenzie’s number).

LOWETIDE TOP 120, 2015

  1. (1) (1) C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) Eternal sunshine.
  2. (2) (2) C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) Buffalo Sabres get franchise center. Amazing luck. Seriously.
  3. (3) (4) R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) He’ll go No. 4 or No. 5
  4. (4) (3) D Noah Hanifin, Boston College (NCAA) Arizona has first shot. Do they draft him, then deal OEL?
  5. (5) (5) C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) I think he goes No. 3 or No. 4 overall.
  6. (6) (8) D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) Quality offensive player, good defender.
  7. (7) (9) C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) Fantastic player. If he falls, EDM grabs him.
  8. (8) (10) R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML) Has a wide range of skills, good size.
  9. (9) (11) D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA) Terrific offensive defender.
  10. (12) (18) L Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton (QMJHL) Big, strong and skilled. Magic hands.
  11. (11) (12) R Timo Meier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) Tremendous talent, NHL-ready?
  12. (10) (17) R Nick Merkley, Kelowna Rockets (WHL) Impressive offensive player.
  13. (13) (15) C Travis Konecny, Ottawa 67’s (OHL) Impressive player, range of skills. Modern Bobby Clarke.
  14. (14) (29) D Jeremy Roy, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL) Offensive D, has ability as a defender.
  15. (15) (43) C Anthony Beauvillier, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) Small, elite skills. 5.16 shots/game.
  16. (18)   (6) C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia Sting (OHL). Big, physical center with average offense. Solid U18’s.
  17. (17)   (7) L Lawson Crouse, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) Power forward with some offensive skills.
  18. (16) (13) C Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL) Smart two-way forward.
  19. (19) (30) C Jansen Harkins, Prince George Cougars (WHL) Two-way center, skilled.
  20. (20) (28) L Jake Debrusk, Swift Current (WHL) Goal-scoring winger with speed.
  21. (24) (14) D Jakub Zboril, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL) Two-way D, solid offense.
  22. (22) (24) D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL) All over the map, high risk/reward pick.
  23. (21) (72) R Blake Speers, SSM Greyhounds (OHL) He may be my modern Marc Pouliot.
  24. (28) (25) D Thomas Chabot, Saint John Seadogs (QMJHL) Fine passer, solid defender.
  25. (29) (16) F Colin White, USNTDP (USHL) Fine skater, two-way player.
  26. (25) (33) R Daniel Sprong, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL) Quick, skilled first-shot scorer
  27. (26) (23) C Joel Eriksson Ek, Farjestad (SEL) Skill C with size, speed.
  28. (30) (40) R Zach Senyshyn, SSM Greyhounds (OHL) Terrific speed, no fear. Skilled.
  29. (36) (42) D Travis Dermott, Erie Otters (OHL) Undersized, mobile defender.
  30. (27) (39) C Filip Chlapik, Charlotteteown Islanders (QMJHL) Two-way C, range of skills
  31. (31) (26) R Brock Boeser, Waterloo Blachawks (USHL) Power winger, impressive scorer.
  32. (32) (55) D Ryan Pilon, Brandon (WHL) Offensive defender with size and speed.
  33. (34) (53) C-R Jeremy Bracco, USNTDP (USHL) Small forward with fast hands, great skill.
  34. (35) (NR) D Ethan Bear, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) Mobile defender, very good shot.
  35. (33) (NR) C Andrew Mangiapane, Barrie (OHL) Brilliant offensive player.
  36. (37) (21) L Denis Gurianov, Lada (MHL). Smooth offensive player, good size. Quality U18.
  37. (39) (20) L Paul Bittner, Portland Winterhawks (WHL) Big winger with speed and scoring ability.
  38. (40) (59) D Rasmus Andersson, Barrie (OHL) Boom or bust. Tremendous potential.
  39. (41) (46) C Mitchell Stephens, Saginaw Spirit (OHL). Speedy C had a massive U18’s.
  40. (42) (73) C Nicolas Roy, Chicoutimi Sagueneens (QMJHL) Rugged two-way C with size.
  41. (43) (36) D Vince Dunn, Niagara (OHL). Smart offensive defender.
  42. (50) (37) D Noah Juulsen, Everett Silvertips (WHL) Good size, can play defense, some skill.
  43. (23) (63) D-F Mitchell Vande Sompel, Oshawa (OHL) Plays F & D, previously ranked as D.
  44. (44) (69) R Nikita Korostelev, Sarnia Sting (OHL) Skill winger.
  45. (53) (34) C Jack Roslovic, USNTDP (USHL) Playmaking C had a tremendous U18’s.
  46. (45) (38) L Dennis Yan, Shawinigan Cataractes (QMJHL) Scoring W with some size.
  47. (58) (31) D Jacob Larsson, Frolunda (SHL) Two-way defender, tall and rangy.
  48. (47) (NR) C Nathan Noel, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL) Wide range of skills, undersized.
  49. (48) (NR) L Dmytro Timashov, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) Explosive winger with crazy numbers.
  50. (56) (56) L Ryan Gropp, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) PF prospect, can score goals.
  51. (49) (44) D Nicolas Meloche, Baie-Comeau (QMJHL) Effective defender, good size.
  52. (38) (47) G Daniel Vladar, Kladno (Czech 2) 8GP, 1.97 .933
  53. (55) (41) D Erik Cernak, Kosice (Slovak) Huge defenseman with a nice range of skills.
  54. (46) (NR) R Jens Looke, Brynas (SHL) Playmaking winger with speed.
  55. (57) (NR) L Erik Foley, Cedar Rapids (USHL) Tough winger has offensive ability.
  56. (71) (19) G Ilya Samsonov, Magnitogorsk (Rus Jr) THE goalie prospect this year.
  57. (51) (58) C-R Roope Hintz, Ilves (SML) Intelligent two-way W, fine skater.
  58. (64) (50) D Matt Spencer, Peterborough Petes (OHL) Tough two-way defender.
  59. (54) (NR) F Filip Ahl, HV-71 (SHL) 6.04, 214, strong all the walls.
  60. (67) (22) D Brandon Carlo, Tri-City (WHL) Big, strong, mean defender.
  61. (59) (NR) L Vladimir Tkachev, Quebec Remparts (QMJHL) Small W, extremely skilled.
  62. (61) (49) L Graham Knott, Niagra Ice Dogs (OHL) Size, good scorer, range of skills.
  63. (62) (62) L Jordan Greenway, USNTDP (USHL) Power winger with skill.
  64. (72) (45) R Christian Fischer, USNTDP (USHL). Scoring winger with size, 7 points at U18’s.
  65. (52) (67) G Matej Tomek, Topeka Roadrunners (NAHL) 31GP, 1.71 .932
  66. (65) (60) C Julius Nattinen, JYP (Fin 2). Big skill C gaining steam during spring tournaments.
  67. (74) (54) C Alexander Dergachyov, St. Petersburg (Rus Jr). Giant skill C, attractive range of skills.
  68. (66) (57) C Thomas Novak, Waterlook Blackhawks (USHL). Skilled two-way center.
  69. (60) (NR) R Michael Spacek, Pardubice (Cze) Skilled, hard working.
  70. (69) (NR) D Vili Saarijavi, Green Bay Gamblers (USHL). Small D is a wizard. Big U18’s.
  71. (70) (NR) R David Kase, Chomutov (Cze-2) Skilled W, aggressive bent. Impressive U18’s.
  72. (78) (64) L Austin Wagner, Regina Pats (WHL). Speedy winger emerged late and can do a lot of things.
  73. (63) (NR) G Michael McNiven, Owen Sound Attack (OHL) 23GP, 2.78 .914
  74. (73) (NR) C Glenn Gawdin, Swift Current Broncos (WHL). Keeps impressing with two-way skills.
  75. (93) (27) D Gabriel Carlsson, Linkoping (Swe Jr). Rangy defender, highly rated by Central Scouting.
  76. (75) (NR) L Jesse Gabrielle, Regina Pats (WHL). Projects as a scoring W—better than boxcars.
  77. (76) (NR) L Robin Kovacs, AIK (Allsvenskan). Skill winger with speed, rugged and pesky style.
  78. (77) (NR) C Tyler Soy, Victoria Royals (WHL) Lightning quick forward.
  79. (82) (NR) D Jesper Lindgren, Modo (Swe Jr).  ‘Erik Karlsson clone’ according to Red Line.
  80. (89) (NR) R Connor Garland, Moncton Wildcats (QMJHL). Small, extremely skilled.
  81. (113) (NR) L Kirill Kaprizov, Novokuznetsk (KHL). Small skill winger.
  82. (68) (35) G MacKenzie Blackwood, Barrie Colts (OHL). Big butterfly style goalie.
  83. (79) (61) C Gabriel Gagne, Victoriaville (QMJHL) Huge C, good speed, very creative offensively.
  84. (80) (NR) C Dante Salituro, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Small forward, terrific skill.
  85. (81) (NR) G Felix Sandstrom, Brynas (Super-Elite). 14GP, 2.63 .907 in SE.
  86. (91) (NR) D Sebastian Aho, Skelleftea (SHL). Undersized, puck mover. No. 11 LT last year.
  87. (94) (68) C Yakov Trenin, Gatineau Olympique (QMJHL). Skilled forward, foot speed an issue.
  88. (83) (NR) D Kyle Capobianco, Sudbury Wolves (OHL). Skill D had a strong finish to OHL season.
  89. (84) (NR) G Adin Hill, Portland Winterhawks (WHL). .921 SP and he’s 6.04
  90. (95) (52) C Jakov Forsbacka Karlsson, Omaha Lancers (USHL). Playmaking center, good passer.
  91. (85) (NR) L Sebastian Ohlsson, Skelleftea (SHL). Small skill center showed well at U18’s.
  92. (86) (NR)Gustaf Bouramman, SSM Greyhounds (OHL). Puck-moving D with decent size.
  93. (97) (65) C Adam Musil, Red Deer Rebels (WHL). Skill W, would be higher but EV scoring is troubling.
  94. (87) (NR) D Parker Wotherspoon, Tri-City Americans (WHL). Good skater, defender.
  95. (88) (NR) R Deven Sideroff, Kamloops Blazers (WHL). Skill W, hard worker, very good passer.
  96. (NR) (NR) C Dennis Malgin, SZC (Swi). Small, fast, extremely skilled center.
  97. (90) (NR) R Lukas Jasek, Trinec (Czech). Smart two-way forward with skill.
  98. (101) (NR) L Sebastian Aho, Karpat (SM-Liiga). Smart, skilled offensive player.
  99. (92) (NR) C Anthony Richard, Vad d’Or (QMJHL). Great skater, quality offense.
  100. (NR) (32) D Jonas Siegenthaler, SZC (Swiss). Big defender, can pass the puck well.
  101. (NR) (48) D Guillaume Brisebois, Acadie-Bathurst Titan (QMJHL). Tall, rangy D, skates well.
  102. (96) (NR) C Giorgio Estephan, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Skill player on a bad team.
  103. (98) (NR) C Brett McKenzie, North Bay Battalion (OHL). Two-way C with skill.
  104. (105) (74) D Dennis Gilbert, Chicago Steel (USHL). Huge defender, skilled. Red Line loves him.
  105. (99) (NR) C Brad Morrison, Prince George Cougars (WHL). Speedy and creative center.
  106. (100) (NR) R Jeremiah Addison, Ottawa 67’s (OHL). Playoffs were fantastic showcase.
  107. (102) (NR) L Adam Helewka, Spokane Chiefs (WHL) Smart winger who can score goals.
  108. (103) (NR) L Mihkail Vorobyov, Ufa, Rus Jr. Big W, some offense. 6.02, 198. Impressed U18’s.
  109. (104) (NR) D Thomas Schemitsch, Owen Sound Attack (OHL). Intelligent two-way defender.
  110. (106) (NR) G Joren Van Pottelberghe, Linkoping (Swe Jrs). 11GP, 1.89 .924. Fantastic numbers.
  111. (107) (70) D Brendan Guhle, Prince Albert Raiders (WHL). Sleeping giant, range of skills.
  112. (108) (NR) R Taggart Corriveau, Westminster Prep (USHS) Impressive size/skill. PP demon.
  113. (109) (NR) D John Marino, South Shore Kings (USHS) Undersized skill D, stock is rising.
  114. (110) (NR) D Veeti Vainio, Espoo (Fin Jr). 6.02, 170, mobile D who can pass the puck, defend well.
  115. (111) (NR) D Vladislav Gavrikov, Yaroslavl (KHL). Two-way D with size and skill. He’s a 1995.
  116. (112) (NR) D Simon Bourque, Rimouski Oceanic (QMJHL). Two-way D, mobile, powerful skater.
  117. (114) (NR) R Kay Schweri, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL). Fantastic playmaker.
  118. (115) (NR) C Brayden Burke, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Was very good in half a season.
  119. (116) (NR) D Jeremy Lauzon, Rouyn-Noranda Huskies (QMJHL). Tall, lean D, good foot speed.
  120. (NR) (NR) D Andrew Nielson, Lethbridge Hurricanes (WHL). Big two-way defender

ON MCKENZIE’S LIST BUT NOT LOWETIDE LIST

  • (51) G Callum Booth, Quebec Remparts. Big goalie, 41GP, 3.05 .900.
  • (66) G Samuel Montembeault, Boisbriand (QMJHL) 52GP, .891
  • (71) C Anthony Cirelli, Oshawa Generals (OHL). Fast skater, good skill, Memorial Cup wizard.
  • (75) R Brendan Warren, USNDTP (USHL). Projects as a hard working checker.

Now that we know the McKenzie list—and it’s three weeks early—we can actually look at what a value draft might look like. I’ll use my list against the McKenzie (which is the prevailing list, it’s very accurate) and see what kind of damage Edmonton might be able to do:

  • No. 1 overall: C Connor McDavid (No. 1 on both lists)
  • No. 16 overall: L Evgeni Svechnikov (No. 10 on my list, No. 17 on BM’s list)
  • No. 33 overall: C Anthony Beauvillier (No. 15 on my list, No. 43 on BM’s list)
  • No. 57 overall: R Blake Speers (No. 23 on my list, No. 72 on BM’s list)
  • No. 79 overall: D Ethan Bear (No. 34 on my list, NR on BM’s list)
  • No. 86 overall: C Andrew Mangiapane (No. 35 on my list, NR on BM’s list)

Now, I know the Oilers won’t draft three centers, a Russian, a skill winger and one blue, but that’s a stunning amount of skill in the first six selections.

Insane. It could happen. Will it? No. I think Peter Chiarelli is a good GM (remember, as a Bruins fan, saw him build the Stanley team and watched him invest in outstanding players. His issue came after the gold rush) and Bob Green has a great reputation as a judge of amateur talent. I do think (as Bob McKenzie mentioned to Nielson and Fraser yesterday) the club could take a goalie in the first round. Why? It’s a need and the Oilers—despite everything else—draft for need. It’s ingrained in them, like drinking coffee, wearing unusual shirts and using the f-word as a noun, verb, adjective et cetera.

I want all the skill. The Oilers want to add a defenseman for now, a goalie for the future and then grab some talent while also appeasing the area scouts. It’s not the right thing to do, and maybe I’m underestimating this new group. I’ll tell you true, I believe there’s a better chance the Oilers draft MacKenzie Blackwood than Anthony Beauvillier. By the way, it’s probably reasonable to use Beauvillier as a test for the 30 teams. He’s value (imo) in the middle of round one, impressive value in round one. Anything beyond that and it’s a steal. We wait.

It looks like Zboril might be the fourth D (Hanifin, Provorov, Werenski) off the board, possibly to Boston at No. 14 overall. I would absolutely take the Russian Svechnikov or the winger Meier if available, but for me the No. 4 D in this draft is Jeremy Roy.

Mr. Bob McKenzie has the Russian Samsonov at No. 19, I have him at No. 56. NHL scouts know far more about goaling than me, but I’m not going to put Samsonov in the first round (I’ve moved him into late second). I actually have Vladar number one among goalies (No. 52) because a .933SP is a fantastic save percentage in the basement league, but am absolutely willing to believe the Russian is better. I’m just not willing to wager a high pick on him. Peter Chiarelli? Drafted a goalie (Malcolm Subban) in the first round when his team didn’t need one—imagine what he might do with a pick like the Russian.

At noon today on SSE, Paul Almeida and I will do a mock draft of the first 16 picks, with guests checking in and making selections for teams. Details here.

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178 Responses to "ETERNAL SUNSHINE"

  1. Rondo says:

    1. McDavid
    16. Zboril,/Chabot/Evgeni Svechnikov/White
    33. Jack Roslovic/ Ilya Samsonov/Juulsen

  2. supernova says:

    The Ilya Samsonov thing is interesting.

    People saying maybe the Oilers should draft him because they NEED a goalie, but they must be PATIENT.
    This doesn’t make sense to me.

    If you need him that bad how can you be patient?

    Now if they can get him at 33 then that is a little different, you could argue they drafted BPA.

    But if they need a goalie then shouldn’t you trade the 33 for a more ready goalie?

  3. Mr DeBakey says:

    I can’t find anything but scraps about Jeremy Lauzon. Despite that I’m sure you have him too low.

    I’ve been sure that both Svechnikov and J Roy would be gone at 16, thus focusing on young Mr Harkins in that spot. Mckenzie has all 3 sitting there at 16.

    * * *

    When looking at players I like to run their counting numbers thru a little formula, [G + Pts] / GP.
    I think it gives a useful number, a sort of super-charged PPG.

    This week I ran up a spreadsheet using ES numbers only.
    Here are the Top 20 Forwards:
    McDavid, Connor = 2.21
    Strome, Dylan = 1.62
    Marner, Mitchell = 1.38
    Svechnikov, Evgeny = 1.35
    Konecny, Travis = 1.17
    Meier, Timo = 1.16
    Timashov, Dmytro = 1.15
    Yan, Dennis = 1.08
    Salituro, Dante = 1.07
    Chlapik, Filip = 1.06
    Bittner, Paul = 1.06
    Richard, Anthony = 1.05
    Gropp, Ryan = 1.04
    DeBrusk, Jake = 1.04
    Gagné, Gabriel = 1.01
    Sprong, Daniel = 1.00
    Korostelev, Nikita = 1.00
    Trenin, Yakov = 0.98
    Barzal, Mathew = 0.98
    Harkins, Jansen = 0.97

    Famous names missing include:
    24 Crouse, Lawson
    33 Merkley, Nick
    37 Zacha, Pavel

  4. shawwwood says:

    LT and the group if Buffalo offered you #21 and #31 would you trade #16?

  5. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    CHL only I presume.

    This is why I find Zacha so interesting as a litmus test. His NHLE is way too weak to justify a top 20 selection. The eye test looking at his tools suggests top ten pick. Curious to see where he goes

  6. Lowetide says:

    Lauzon: He is a good skater, mobile. Posted very good numbers for a less than great team.

  7. Mr DeBakey says:

    NYCOIL "Taking Photos":
    Mr DeBakey,

    CHL only I presume.

    This is whyI find Zacha so interesting as a litmus test. His NHLE is way too weak to justify a top 20 selection. The eye test looking at his tools suggests top ten pick. Curious to see where he goes

    Yes
    chlstats.com

  8. gd says:

    -I really hope they don’t take a goalie until at least the Mtl 2nd. Looks like there are at least 5 good goalie prospects and hopefully Fucale and Campbell are reminders of how even the best G prospects are voodoo. Quite frankly we don’t even know if Vasilevsky or Gibson are going pan out yet.
    -Guys I am hoping we don’t get for various gut feelings; Carlo, Dermott, Bittner and Andersson.
    -Kylington is my most fascinating prospect as he seems like he could be the 4th best D man or the next Tim Erixon. With Detroit picking 19th, I think if they take him we will regret not getting him at 16.
    -It definitely looks like a very good RH Dman will be available at 33, so if they trade the 16, a Juulson or maybe even Roy will be available.

  9. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    shawwwood:
    LT and the group if Buffalo offered you #21 and #31 would you trade #16?

    My way of thinking is opposite to what seems the most common view here, but just as in ‘whomever gets the best player wins the trade’ I think taking the higher pick offers a better chance at an impact player which is what they should always be shooting for.

    Bottom half players are the ones that are easier to get and affordable at the NHL level, and they come house trained.

    If your scouts can convince you that in this draft 21 is the same as 16 there is a strong argument to do that trade, but most years I think you lower the chance of that special player too much. One high end player is better to have than two lesser players.

    Another consideration is that there are only 50 contracts to give, so flooding the system with picks at some point becomes an issue.

  10. oliveoilers says:

    LT! I’m disappointed in you! A great title like “Eternal Sunshine” and no picture of Miss Winslet, Reading’s finest hottie?

  11. oliveoilers says:

    Bob has Crouse awfully high, I’m just wondering if he also factors in what he hears on the street from teams and who they like.

  12. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    I know goalies are hard to draft, but an awful lot of top NHL ‘minders are first round picks. Same goes with defense. Once either get established as quality they are nearly impossible to trade for and far to costly as UFA’s.

    So if you’re loaded at forward in the top six and the system is full of bottom six types that are players and it’s a deep draft why take more forwards when other positions are so depleted?

    With busts it’s very often apparent why. Man crushes and being obsessed with things that don’t win games. If a team has a clear parameter of what makes a player good at the position at an NHL level and runs a good scouting service they shouldn’t be off the mark too far, perhaps getting serviceable players when shooting for impact players instead of players that don’t make it.

    You could just go straight off Bob’s list and do pretty well.

  13. Lowetide says:

    McDavid measures 6’0.5″, 188 lbs at NHL Draft Combine via Scott Cullen

  14. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    oliveoilers:
    Bob has Crouse awfully high, I’m just wondering if he also factors in what he hears on the street from teams and who they like.

    The list is a compilation of ten scout’s opinions. So it reflects pro scouting and team bias so the list is close to draft order in the first round.

  15. Lowetide says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”: The list is a compilation of ten scout’s opinions. So it reflects pro scouting and team bias so the list is close to draft order in the first round.

    Yes. I think it would be shocked to see either Zacha or Crouse get to 16. If they did suspect EDM would draft either there.

  16. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    So Buffalo likely to take Samsonov at 21 if still there? What do the Oilers do?

  17. Rondo says:

    oliveoilers,

    That is because most everyone here only looks at numbers, and don’t watch the player.

  18. oliveoilers says:

    Lowetide: Yes. I think it would be shocked to see either Zacha or Crouse get to 16. If they did suspect EDM would draft either there.

    Blah, Zacha, blah, Crouse. Where’s the picture of Kate Winslet? 😉

  19. gd says:

    shawwwood,

    My belief is in this draft, that would constitute great value for the Oilers. I would assume that then either the 21, 31 or 33 becomes the key part of the D/G trade

  20. verdad2.0 says:

    Anyone but Crouse.
    Oilers don’t need any more Moroz clones.

  21. oliveoilers says:

    verdad2.0:
    Anyone but Crouse.
    Oilers don’t need any more Moroz clones.

    To be fair, although I personally wouldn’t draft Crouse unless he was available at 33 (he won’t be), he IS a very useful player, with a much higher ceiling than Moroz. It’s just that our needs are very different in that we need D and G. So, I guess you are right, we don’t particularly need his skill set at the moment.

  22. Pouzar says:

    good grief No Goalie in the first rd.

  23. Lowetide says:

    oliveoilers:
    LT!I’m disappointed in you!A great title like “Eternal Sunshine” and no picture of Miss Winslet, Reading’s finest hottie?

    I don’t do the photos on weekends, but yes, I did have a boo at here in that movie before posting. Fantastic beauty.

  24. Lowetide says:

    Mike Morreale ‏@mikemorrealeNHL 8s9 seconds ago Buffalo, NY

    McDavid 9 on bench press; Travis Dermott 14 on bench

  25. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    So Buffalo likely to take Samsonov at 21 if still there? What do the Oilers do?

    If Samsonov or Luke’s dad are seemingly that good I think they have to take them at 16 unless somebody falls far.

    The value of a top prospect young goalie is much higher than a forward so even if Broissoit wins the day the Oilers will have a pretty nice trade chip.

    The other consideration is that elite players don’t take forever to come. Goalies peak early. It is possible to acquire a starter and still try to cement the most key position for the future in the draft and avoid being the Penguins – having a great core and not winning because of the goalie and shallow depth.

    I don’t think we’ll see a lot of goalies out of Europe anymore that are late round picks and become dominant in the NHL that aren’t outliers because everyone is looking everywhere now, even Russia, and I don’t want to wait for extreme luck to strike again.

    Picking one of the top two draft age goalies in the world seems like a far better bet these days, and that to me doesn’t mean necessarily the guy who started for Canada at the worlds.

  26. Lowetide says:

    Mike Morreale ‏@mikemorrealeNHL 5m5 minutes ago Buffalo, NY

    McDavid 6 pull ups; mitch marner 11
    3 retweets 0 favorites

  27. Mr DeBakey says:

    Brock Otten:

    “It’s the general fan base (the armchair scouts) who don’t seem to be too fond of Crouse. They see the average statistical output and wonder why he’s rated so highly. Watch him play for more than a couple of games and you’ll see why. Crouse is a coaches dream. He’s already one of the most complete players in the OHL. His defensive awareness and anticipation is fantastic and he uses his size very effectively to defend on the back check.”

    I don’t imagine he gets out of the Top-10.

  28. stephen sheps says:

    verdad2.0:
    Anyone but Crouse.
    Oilers don’t need any more Moroz clones.

    Crouse is a lot of things, and probably is not the player the Oilers need right now, (G, RD, RW in that order imho), but he sure isn’t anything like Moroz outside of size. I know many of us tend to write in exaggerated tones and overuse the hyperbole because internet, but good grief, really?

  29. stephen sheps says:

    Lowetide,

    6 pull-ups is still better than no pull-ups 😉

    (edit: I know it was said yesterday, but man oh man is the NHL combine ever silly!)

  30. Rondo says:

    The crowd here probably wouldn’t have wanted Jonathan Toews in his draft year. You really need to watch the player it is not always about stats

  31. Captain Smarmy says:

    Rondo:
    The crowd here probably wouldn’t have wanted Jonathan Toews in his draft year. You really need to watch the player it is not always about stats

    But the stats should be there too.

    Mind you Crouse was close to a PPG no? With that body type and style of play he’s going to go high. I’d probably take him at 16 with the idea that I have offense locked up and he could probably play on my top lines and not look out of place.

  32. Snowman says:

    I’m less concerned about this draft. Listening to Chiarelli and reading what Green has to say. There’s no chance they take a goaler in the first round in my opinion. It’s too skilled a draft. There are going to be fantastic players available even at 33. Bob Green can pick the talent and Chia can make sure they’re hard to play against. Draft CMD. Pick the BPA for the rest of the draft. That’s the plan.

    It’s going to be ok everybody. Its Saturday, it’s sunny and Connor Mcdavid is coming to a rink near you in the fall.

    On a side note: Can anyone point me in the direction of a direct comparison of CMD and Eichel? I want to know what separates them so clearly in everyone’s mind.

  33. verdad2.0 says:

    One other point this entire string seems to fail to appreciate is that trading the 16th pick for a functional NHL defenseman should the highest priority for Chiarelli.
    The MacDavid era has to be typified by urgency. At all cost, be radically more competitive next season.
    Worrying about the future upside of the 16th pick isn’t as important as finding three functional defenseman for next season.
    Everyone needs to remember is that most draft picks don’t work out to expectations as compared to known NHL players.
    The Oiler fan base has suffered by a decade of incompetence. Banking on picks when they should be only seen as a currency for functional players would be another blunder.
    More time should be spent on which NHL teams would actually so lust after the 16th and 33rd pick to actually give up real defenseman to the OIlers.

    One further point, why is MacTavish still employed? This week’s fiasco in Montreal should been the last straw Anyone who valued the troika of incompetnce ( Ference, Schultz and Nikitin) over Petry and Marincin should not just be demoted. What Oiler fan didn’t feel disgust and rage over gifting Petry to Montreal, an organization that had no problem seeing how functional Petry was and would continue to be. MacTavish only made Chiarelli’s job so much harder. Three instead of two functioal defenseman for next season.

  34. verdad2.0 says:

    Mr DeBakey,

    Sounds like a late 2nd or 3rd rounder.
    Everyone dreams of Bob Gainey and ends up with Mitch Moroz.

  35. Richard S.S. says:

    I’m not sure the #16 Pick is being valued properly. In a normal year, McDavid, Eichel and one of Strome, Marner and Hanifin are normally not there. IMO, at least four of the next ten prospects will also not be there in a normal Draft. That should make this year’s #16 Pick the equivalent of a #7 – #9 in most other Drafts. I’m not opposed to trading this pick if necessary, I just want full value coming back.

  36. PaperDesigner says:

    Lowetide:
    Mike Morreale ‏@mikemorrealeNHL 5m5 minutes ago Buffalo, NY

    McDavid 6 pull ups; mitch marner 11
    3 retweets 0 favorites

    Pfft, McDavid is going to be a flop. Draft Eichel instead.

  37. Rondo says:

    Captain Smarmy: But the stats should be there too.

    Mind you Crouse was close to a PPG no? With that body type and style of play he’s going to go high. I’d probably take him at 16 with the idea that I have offense locked up and he could probably play on my top lines and not look out of place.

    Did you see what Crouse had to play with in Kingston, if he had a centre like Bennett for the whole year , Crouse’s numbers would have been much better. He had no 1st line centre or winger. He is one of the youngest players in the draft , he made the World Jrs too, How many 17 yr olds do that. I trust BM ‘s rankings more than posters here.

  38. Woodguy says:

    oliveoilers:
    Bob has Crouse awfully high, I’m just wondering if he also factors in what he hears on the street from teams and who they like.

    From TSN’s website:

    TSN’s final NHL draft ranking is a compilation list based on input from various scouts around the National Hockey League.

    Also,

    The mechanism is this:

    Bob gets the draft list of 10 NHL Head Scouts and then assigns points for their ranking.

    He then adds up everyone’s ranking and viola, the list.

    That is why it mirrors the draft so well.

    Its created by compiling what the decision makers are thinking.

  39. Lowetide says:

    Richard S.S.:
    I’m not sure the #16 Pick is being valued properly.In a normal year, McDavid, Eichel and one ofStrome, Marner and Hanifin are normally not there.IMO, at least four of the next ten prospects will also not be there in a normal Draft. That should make this year’s #16 Pick the equivalent of a #7 – #9 in most other Drafts.I’m not opposed to trading this pick if necessary, I just want full value coming back.

    If they get Svechnikov, Meier or Roy, for me that’s full value. And I agree, that’s a top 10 pick in a normal year for sure.

  40. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    I’m going to assume you snuck Andrew Nielsen on to your list at #120 as a personal favour to me.

    Don’t correct me if I’m wrong, it makes me feel special.

    Good call though.

  41. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    verdad2.0:
    Mr DeBakey,

    Sounds like a late 2nd or 3rd rounder.
    Everyone dreams of Bob Gainey and ends up with Mitch Moroz.

    True, and you can acquire a checker with size any day of the week for cheap. This is the issue. To me it is repeated time and again in the playoffs.

    Big is useful in the reg season because opponent players aren’t always invested in the hard play, but in playoffs if they can’t outright cheat, speed and skill rise to the top. The Oilers have a ton of speed and skill.

  42. stephen sheps says:

    Rondo,

    It’s true – the Fronts this year were pretty bad and Crouse was the best player on the ice every game I was able to see. And in his 16yr old season on a much better Fronts team, he was still visible and making an impact with fewer minutes rather than in a feature role. I’m far too lazy to go back and search for my old comments from around last year at this time, but even last year he was worth talking about.

    verdad2.0,

    While stats don’t ‘lie’, they don’t always paint a complete picture of the player. *Puts on sociologist hat – which is an ugly, stupid and pretentious hat to be sure but here we are…* The wonderful thing about stats is that there are always outliers, and not every predictive model is 100% accurate. That’s why when using them, there’s things called confidence intervals and standard deviations… *takes off hat*
    Crouse will not be a 100pt player (few people are and nobody expects him to be), he might not even be a 25/25 guy (though he easily could be), but he is very good at many aspects of hockey. He drives play, back-checks like a demon, helps to break the cycle as a winger, which is not often a winger’s responsibility, kills penalties and is out against teams best forwards. It was a product of both being his team’s best player and not having much support that he was thrust into those roles, but to equate someone who is capable of that and still lead his (admittedly poor) team in scoring does not a Moroz make. He has value in this draft. It’s a shame so many refuse to see that value.

  43. gd says:

    verdad2.0:
    One other point this entire string seems to fail to appreciate is that trading the 16th pick for a functional NHL defenseman should the highest priority for Chiarelli.
    The MacDavid era has to be typified by urgency. At all cost, be radically more competitive next season.
    Worrying about the future upside of the 16th pick isn’t as important as finding three functional defenseman for next season.
    Everyone needs to remember is that most draft picks don’t work out to expectations as compared to known NHL players.
    The Oiler fan base has suffered by a decade of incompetence. Banking on picks when they should be only seen as a currency for functional players would be another blunder.
    More time should be spent on which NHL teams would actually so lust after the 16th and 33rd pick to actually give up real defenseman to the OIlers.

    One further point, why is MacTavish still employed? This week’s fiasco in Montreal should been the last strawAnyone who valued the troika of incompetnce ( Ference, Schultz and Nikitin) over Petry and Marincin should not just be demoted. What Oiler fan didn’t feel disgust and rage over gifting Petry to Montreal, an organization that had no problem seeing how functional Petry was and would continue to be.MacTavish only made Chiarelli’s job so much harder. Three instead of two functioal defenseman for nextseason.

    I can’t agree more.

    I think the Chia’s number one priority is getting CMD to sign his second contract as quickly and as team friendly as possible. I think the best way to accomplish this is to have this team in the playoffs in 2016-17 and make him realize this is the best place for him to win cups and make it his home. Watching TB/Chi, I am struck by how bad they are relative to previous era cup winners. I truly believe a healthy LA and Boston could easily be in the Finals, if they made the playoffs. Point being the Oilers should be a playoff team as soon as possible, as once they are, anything can happen and the cup could be here in Connor’s ELC.

    Chia accomplished the first key item in getting a top 10 coach here. I think the cup contending years happen when Nurse/Klefbom become top 4 dmen, as long as they have two other adequate top 4D. (Let’s say Spurgeon and Sekera) plus league average goaltending.

  44. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    verdad2.0:
    One other point this entire string seems to fail to appreciate is that trading the 16th pick for a functional NHL defenseman should the highest priority for Chiarelli.
    The MacDavid era has to be typified by urgency. At all cost, be radically more competitive next season.
    Worrying about the future upside of the 16th pick isn’t as important as finding three functional defenseman for next season.
    Everyone needs to remember is that most draft picks don’t work out to expectations as compared to known NHL players.
    The Oiler fan base has suffered by a decade of incompetence. Banking on picks when they should be only seen as a currency for functional players would be another blunder.
    More time should be spent on which NHL teams would actually so lust after the 16th and 33rd pick to actually give up real defenseman to the OIlers.

    One further point, why is MacTavish still employed? This week’s fiasco in Montreal should been the last strawAnyone who valued the troika of incompetnce ( Ference, Schultz and Nikitin) over Petry and Marincin should not just be demoted. What Oiler fan didn’t feel disgust and rage over gifting Petry to Montreal, an organization that had no problem seeing how functional Petry was and would continue to be.MacTavish only made Chiarelli’s job so much harder. Three instead of two functioal defenseman for nextseason.

    I think Uncle Pete has indicated he will make the best move given what is available. If 16 gets him that G or D it’s done. If teams are trying to scam him he’ll pick. I think he’ll draft for need, and I think whatever the Oilers have done before holds little sway on what happens now, I’m sure he’ll call the shots asking for opinions first at least in the top rounds.

  45. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    The crowd here probably wouldn’t have wanted Jonathan Toews in his draft year. You really need to watch the player it is not always about stats

    First of all your idiotic strawman of Toews is quite dumb.

    His point totals of almost a 1pt/gm as a NCAA rookie were seriously impressive.

    If you are going to try to be an asshole, at least be a smart one.

    Also,

    There is a very good reason we look hard at point totals.

    They predict NHL success much more than scout rankings:

    Kevin Flynn ‏@joshweissbock Jan 10
    So for just draft year of CHL players, the pearson r correlation to NHL gp is:

    Scouts Rankings: -0.19
    dPPG: 0.41
    PPG: 0.43

    I’ll try to find a link to his post on this subject, but “watching the games” doesn’t seem to work as well as “crunch the numbers”

    To be clear most smart people say you need both math and eyes and use each to inform the other, but this truth will always remain:

    “If a player can’t score in the CHL, they won’t score in the NHL”

    Also,

    If you don’t like the crowd here, nothing is holding you here.

    What are you going to do tomorrow? Go to a Catholic church and shit talk the Pope?

    Seriously.

    “I hate how some people like to use math when analyzing sports so I’m going to a blog that does that every day and tell them they are wrong”

    Amazing.

  46. Snowman says:

    Hey LT,

    I don’t know if this is something you have done or something you would consider doing but I would be interested in seeing where the Oilers picks from Hall to Drai would fit in this years draft?

  47. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Someone really interesting is going to slide to 16th on draft day. Not sure who it will be. But wouldn’t surprise me to see a couple of names from the 3-12 cluster available. Any trade of the pick should be last minute to maximize value, otherwise please take BPA, even if it is, say a Barzal type that slides.

  48. stephen sheps says:

    verdad2.0:
    One other point this entire string seems to fail to appreciate is that trading the 16th pick for a functional NHL defenseman should the highest priority for Chiarelli.
    The MacDavid era has to be typified by urgency. At all cost, be radically more competitive next season.
    Worrying about the future upside of the 16th pick isn’t as important as finding three functional defenseman for next season.
    Everyone needs to remember is that most draft picks don’t work out to expectations as compared to known NHL players.
    The Oiler fan base has suffered by a decade of incompetence. Banking on picks when they should be only seen as a currency for functional players would be another blunder.
    More time should be spent on which NHL teams would actually so lust after the 16th and 33rd pick to actually give up real defenseman to the OIlers.

    yup… while we’re going to have to agree to disagree re: Crouse, I’m totally with you on this point!

  49. Pouzar says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    Someone really interesting is going to slide to 16th on draft day. Not sure who it will be. But wouldn’t surprise me to see a couple of names from the 3-12cluster available. Any trade of the pick should be last minute to maximize value, otherwise please take BPA, even if it is, say a Barzal type that slides.

    Amazing before the lottery we were all debating Marner/Hanifin/Stome. Now the “what do with the 16th pick” has taken it’s place. Sweet sweet McJesus!

  50. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Lowetide:
    McDavid measures 6’0.5″, 188 lbs at NHL Draft Combine via Scott Cullen


    Follow

    Scott CullenVerified account
    ‏@tsnscottcullen
    Jack Eichel measures in at 6’2″, 193.67 lbs

    Also:

    Follow

    Michael TraikosVerified account
    ‏@Michael_Traikos
    (Unofficially) 9 pull ups for McDavid.

  51. Bar_Qu says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”,

    Good point.

    Who was that really useful checker on the Ducks? Cog-something? Skill makes good grinders too, but lack of skill will never make anything. Now some good intangibles helps (grit) but if you aren’t good enough to play then you ain’t good enough. For fun, people should check where the “heart” guys on each team played in their junior careers. I think you would find more of them were skill players than bottom six.

  52. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Eichel with an impressive standing jump:

    https://twitter.com/buffalosabres/status/607212398055931904

  53. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    Your go to move is always stats , and I think they are important but I put more weight on watching the player and since I really haven’t watch much of Crouse , I listen to people like Bob Mckenzie and follow Brock Otten and others.

    Your saying i’m an ass because I put more weight than you on watching , and less on stats.

  54. Woodguy says:

    Here is Josh’s post at The Hockey Writers about the issue with some NHL scouting:

    http://thehockeywriters.com/the-nhl-has-a-scouting-problem/

    This is required reading for anyone with an interest in the draft.

    Note that 11 teams seem to do better than the rest on a continual basis.

    Its not a league wide inefficiency. Smart teams (like CHI, TBY) continue to exploit it.

  55. gd says:

    Woodguy,

    I believe it is not a stats vs “seen him good’. It’s about getting better information then your competitors and being smart enough to exploit that info advantage. I believe Moneyball was not about stats, but about exploiting market inefficiencies and then knowing when those inefficiencies are no longer there. I think the fact that the team that is smart enough to probably win the Stanley Cup traded the same package for Timmonen as for Petry shows me there are still a lot of market inefficiencies in the NHL as it still has a pretty weak GM talent pool.

    I would have no problem with the Oilers taking Crouse at 16, but can’t see him still being there and I would have a problem with them trading up to get him.

  56. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    Eichel with an impressive standing jump:

    https://twitter.com/buffalosabres/status/607212398055931904

    Not that the long jump is what determines it, but I think Eichel is somehow severely underrated around these parts. I really see him as just a hair behind McDavid, and could see him having the better rookie year due to size and playing style, although I see McDavid with the better offensive career.

  57. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy,

    Your go to move is always stats , and I think they are important but I put more weight on watching the player and since I really haven’t watch much of Crouse , I listen to people like Bob Mckenzie and follow Brock Otten and others.

    Your saying i’m an ass because I put more weight than you on watching , and less on stats.

    No, I’m saying you’re an ass because of your complaining about math on a math heavy blog.

    You roundly dismiss the use of math, even though its proven to be more effective than live scouting, with zero evidence.

    You create strawmen (“this blog would have hated Toews”) with zero knowledge that almost 1pt/gm in the NCAA as a freshman is very good.

    Think what you want, but if you are going to deride others, be prepared to back it up.

  58. Hammers says:

    Surely one of the first 2 picks must be a D maybe even both of them or 2 out of the top 3 . Trades or waiting is the other option and then what . High dollars for guys over 32 . The only way I trade either of the top 2 is if I’m getting a 26-29 year old D that are at least in the Hall Eberle age group but the picks will be in the McDavid Nurse group . Question for next years team, we add a goalie , no D so are we in the top , middle or bottom 10 teams . No Top D or add more old D and we are in bottom 10 . DEFENCE is what we need . Saying same thing the last 5 years .

  59. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    I think Eichel is somehow severely underrated around these parts

    I disagree with that.

    Most acknowledge that he’s like Malkin in the Ovi/Malkin draft.

    I think there has been little talk about him around here as the Oilers never had a shot at him.

    He was always going #2 and when the Oilers slipped out of 30th the chance to get him was gone.

  60. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    I’ve wondered since the lotto, what Murray would pay to swap the top picks.

    flips over kitchen table – cowers behind it…

  61. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    The math vs. no math argument, every single time:

    Guy 1: Math works because of the following evidence….
    Guy 2: Ya math is fine, but you have to watch the games…
    Guy 1: I understand that, but I can show tangible evidence that a bias towards Math significantly outperforms a bias towards what your eyes are telling you…
    Guy 2: Ya, I get that, but I think you have to trust what you see. I’ve watched lots of games and I can tell he’s really good.
    Guy 1: What evidence do you have to support that argument?
    Guy 2: Watching.
    Guy 1: How is that evidence?
    Guy 2: Because I saw it.
    Guy 1: But math shows that trusting your eyes doesn’t work
    Guy 2: But I disagree
    Guy 1: Why?
    Guy 2: Because I do.

    There, I just had the whole argument for everybody, so we don’t need to have it anymore.

  62. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:
  63. Rondo says:

    Woodguy,

    Interesting article. I will admit saying Toews would be hated is provocative. However when discussing Crouse, you can start with the Stats and say as that article says the numbers are not impressive for someone in the top 10. But I think you need to ask why did he make an excellent World Jrs? Why a whole lot of scouts like him ? Factors like line mates, style of hockey Kingston plays, also small sample of playing with Bennett helped his numbers. Also I have listened to people who watch him and always give glowing reports. I realize it is a balancing act between stats and viewing the player.

  64. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Merkley’s jump – dayum, but Eichel is way out in front of these guys. This is probably the most ‘hockey relevant’ test too.

    https://twitter.com/mapleleafs/status/607211777617723392

  65. Woodguy says:

    Andy Grabia (used to be a regular here) posted in 2008 on drafting for need using quote from Paul Depodesta at BoA:

    http://battleofalberta.blogspot.ca/2008/06/on-drafting.html

    Good read.

    Also,

    Other old LT regular Lord Bob nailed it with Eberle.

    He was higher on him than anyone iirc.

  66. stephen sheps says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    The math vs. no math argument, every single time:

    Guy 1:Math works because of the following evidence….
    Guy 2:Ya math is fine, but you have to watch the games…
    Guy 1:I understand that, but I can show tangible evidence that a bias towards Math significantly outperforms a bias towards what your eyes are telling you…
    Guy 2:Ya, I get that, but I think you have to trust what you see.I’ve watched lots of games and I can tell he’s really good.
    Guy 1:What evidence do you have to support that argument?
    Guy 2:Watching.
    Guy 1:How is that evidence?
    Guy 2:Because I saw it.
    Guy 1:But math shows that trusting your eyes doesn’t work
    Guy 2:But I disagree
    Guy 1: Why?
    Guy 2: Because I do.

    There, I just had the whole argument for everybody, so we don’t need to have it anymore.

    Guy 3: D’uh, isn’t it possible that you can like and embrace both sides, be a little bit skeptical and cynical given that neither the eyes nor the math can be proved to be 100% accurate and just embrace that there’s a degree of subjectivity in everything?
    😛

    (edit: I’ll stop being an ass now…I don’t know why I always get defensive about Crouse. It must be some sort of lingering aftereffect of living in Kingston for 5 years. I’m so happy I don’t live there anymore)

  67. sliderule says:

    1. Mcdavid
    16. Zboril ,Chabot, have to go defence with all the good D players available
    33 Gurianov, Roslovic.Run to table if these two are there.
    57.Vlader ,Greenway Goalie or Lucic search
    79. .Wotherspoon one of youngest players with offence and skating ,still growing
    86 Brad Morrison.Wagner.take a chance on speedsters.

  68. stephen sheps says:

    Woodguy,

    I miss Maseey’s old rants, both as his lord bob alter-ego here and as himself at C’n’B

  69. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Woodguy: Other old LT regular Lord Bob nailed it with Eberle.

    His last line is great: ” I think I’m going to go outside and jump around.”

  70. Woodguy says:

    Rondo:
    Woodguy,

    Interesting article. I will admit saying Toews would be hated is provocative. However when discussing Crouse, you can start with the Stats and say as that article says the numbers are not impressive for someone in the top 10. But I think you need to ask why did he make an excellent World Jrs? Why a whole lot of scouts like him ?Factors like linemates, style of hockey Kingston plays, also small sample of playing with Bennett helped his numbers. Also I have listened to people who watch him and always give glowing reports. I realize it is a balancing act between stats and viewing the player.

    I never waded into the Crouse argument.

    I was arguing the principle.

  71. Lowetide says:

    Hammers:
    Surely one of the first 2 picks must be a D maybe even both of them or 2 out of the top 3 . Trades or waiting is the other option and then what . High dollars for guys over 32 . The only way I trade either of the top 2 is if I’m getting a 26-29 year old D that are at least in the Hall Eberle age group but the picks will be in the McDavid Nurse group. Question for next years team, we add a goalie , no D so are we in the top , middle or bottom 10 teams . No Top Dor add more old D and we are in bottom 10 . DEFENCEis what we need . Saying same thing the last 5 years .

    The Oilers have been spending considerable draft assets on defense and in fact this isn’t the major area of weakness now. It’s goal and RW. Wrote about it here

    https://lowetide.ca/2014/12/29/edmonton-oilers-prospects-winter-2014/

  72. spoiler says:

    LT said…
    By the way, it’s probably reasonable to use Beauvillier as a test for the 30 teams. He’s value (imo) in the middle of round one, impressive value in round one. Anything beyond that and it’s a steal. We wait.

    If the Oilers were to take Beauvillier at 16, we would have to castigate the scouting staff on the same level we villified them for Moroz, no? Moroz was taken about 20 spots early at the beginning of the 2nd round and Beauvillier would be going about 30 spots early in the mid-first, so even more “off the board”.

    Just sayin’. 😉

    What I like…

    Svechnikov has really risen on my list this past month. I like Kylington, Zboril and Roy, but don’t know if I could pass on Svechnikov or Meier at 16 if they were available and one of them is likely to be. Assuming we’re keeping the pick, of course.

    I also really like Sprong and think he’s under-rated. Yan too, but farther down the list.

    What I don’t like…

    I don’t have Konecny in my top 30. Midget with just over a point per game and average skating… no way do I risk a 1st rounder on him.

  73. John Chambers says:

    Snowman:
    Hey LT,

    I don’t know if this is something you have done or something you would consider doing but I would be interested in seeing where the Oilers picks from Hall to Drai would fit in this years draft?

    Let’s try this:
    McDavid
    Eichel
    Hall
    Hanifin
    Strome
    RNH
    Marner
    Draisaitl


    Werenski
    Rantannen
    Yakupov
    Zboril
    Meier

  74. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    stephen sheps,

    Yes. However, and I say this as a guy who is far to lazy to do any math, the folks shilling for views while acknowledging the power of math generally aren’t giving the math enough weight, while suggesting the math guys don’t watch the games which is completely ridiculous.

    For me it always comes back to drafting being more about making bets than picks. Betting in poker sense, not the lotto sense.

    Math creates a very strong baseline. After that, you can play the read, but it’s built on a strong foundation of math. Deviating from that, more often than not, leads to failure over the longer term.

    This means that the math is less about picking the right player, and more about eliminating the wrong player.

    Math tells us that Liam Coughlin was a bad bet. It doesn’t matter how impressive he was by eye, he was a bad bet. The same math tells us that Khaira was a reasonable bet.

    The math tells us Crouse in the top 10 is a bad bet, as is Zacha.

    So after you’ve used the math to tell us the minimum expectation for a player in a given range, then by all means deviate to the eye test. The establishment of the metrics by which a bar is set at each pick, for each draft, do not yet exist, though I’m sure we’re getting there.

  75. G Money says:

    Woodguy: There is a very good reason we look hard at point totals.
    They predict NHL success much more than scout rankings:
    Kevin Flynn ‏@joshweissbock Jan 10
    So for just draft year of CHL players, the pearson r correlation to NHL gp is:
    Scouts Rankings: -0.19
    dPPG: 0.41
    PPG: 0.43

    When I ran the correlation for just elite players in the last 10 years, the correlation between draft year ppg and nhl rookie ppg was 0.6 (and for those who care, p = 0.011).

    Though I suspect scout rankings for the top 10 would also be much better than -0.19.

    Then again, to my minds, scouts really earn their keep in the later stages/rounds of the draft. You get no scouting points for drafting McDavid.

  76. Woodguy says:

    I’ll say this about Crouse:

    Seems to have the tools, but the fact that he couldn’t create offence on his own is a major concern.

    His defenders usually say “he didn’t have a C all year”

    Others (like DrySaddle for instance) played on teams with meh help too and still managed to create offence.

    He will probably be a reasonable complimentary player, but not the driver of the bus.

    Drivers of the bus do not need good line mates to score in junior.

    I think he’s a reasonable pick at 16, but shouldn’t be ranked in the top 10 because if you can’t drive your own offence in the CHL, there is no way in hell you’ll drive it at the NHL level.

    Also,

    Lots of “Hockey Canada” favorites don’t pan out at the NHL level.

    Not many who’ve made the team at 17 mind you.

    Hockey Canada loves Fucale for some reason and I don’t see him making the NHL as a regular at all.

    You can count all the CHL players who scored less than 1pt/gm in their draft year who play top 6 on one (maybe two) hands.

    You need to count a beach’s worth of sand grains to count all the big men who couldn’t score 1pt/gm in their CHL draft year, were drafted high due to size and never made an impact at the NHL level if they ever got there.

    Scouts loved those guys too.

  77. godot10 says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Brock Otten:

    “It’s the general fan base (the armchair scouts) who don’t seem to be too fond of Crouse. They see the average statistical output and wonder why he’s rated so highly. Watch him play for more than a couple of games and you’ll see why. Crouse is a coaches dream. He’s already one of the most complete players in the OHL. His defensive awareness and anticipation is fantastic and he uses his size very effectively to defend on the back check.”

    I don’t imagine he gets out of the Top-10.

    The scouts apparently think Crouse is Bob Gainey. If he is, then he is value from about #10-15. If the OIlers take him at #16, I won’t complain, unless Barzal or a D I really like is there.

  78. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    LT said…
    By the way, it’s probably reasonable to use Beauvillier as a test for the 30 teams. He’s value (imo) in the middle of round one, impressive value in round one. Anything beyond that and it’s a steal. We wait.

    If the Oilers were to take Beauvillier at 16, we would have to castigate the scouting staff on the same level we villified them for Moroz, no?Moroz was taken about 20 spots early at the beginning of the 2nd round and Beauvillier would be going about 30 spots early in the mid-first, so even more “off the board”.

    Just sayin’.

    What I like…

    Svechnikov has really risen on my list this past month.I like Kylington, Zboril and Roy, but don’t know if I could pass on Svechnikov or Meier at 16 if they were available and one of them is likely to be.Assuming we’re keeping the pick, of course.

    I also really like Sprong and think he’s under-rated.Yan too, but farther down the list.

    What I don’t like…

    I don’t have Konecny in my top 30.Midget with just over a point per game and average skating… no way do I risk a 1st rounder on him.

    Not at all. If we’re following Bob’s list, then sure. However, the math LOVES Beauvillier, I’d bet that the good drafting teams cannot wait to get their hands on him. If he’s available overnight after Round 1 there will be a large ransom paid for No. 31 overall. The scouts are wrong on Beavillier. I’d bet money on it.

  79. stephen sheps says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I was honestly just being a dumb-ass. I haven’t been posting here for 7(ish) years because I neither like nor understand the math…

    you set it up as a binary (math vs. saw him good) so I just thought I’d poke you a little.

    completely agree with all that you’ve said – you’ll get no argument from me on it, especially concerning using math to avoid picking (or trading for or signing) the wrong players. And for the record, for all of the times I’ve defended Crouse around here over the past year or so, it’s always been with the caveat that he shouldn’t be picked in the top 10. He does a lot of little things well, but as Woodguy astutely reminded us above, he doesn’t drive play or dominate on the scoreboard the way a top ten pick even in a weak draft year (which this one isn’t!) should be dominant.

  80. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Woodguy:
    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    I think Eichel is somehow severely underrated around these parts

    I disagree with that.

    Most acknowledge that he’s like Malkin in the Ovi/Malkin draft.

    I think there has been little talk about him around here as the Oilers never had a shot at him.

    He was always going #2 and when the Oilers slipped out of 30th the chance to get him was gone.

    Disagree with “most.”

    Absolutely true Oilers were never going to get Eichel because he would go 2nd and Oilers had zero chance of that. But while a few posters such as you have acknowledged Eichel as the Malkin in the Ovechkin/Malkin draft, far more have not seen it that way. Some posts saying the Oilers should never consider trading McDavid for the “Barnaby-proposed package” (Eichel, Zadorov, Ristolainen, 21st overall), or that they don’t see why Eichel is considered the 2nd best prospect since Crosby at the time of drafting.

    A few posters, such as you, may have his value pegged correctly; I think many see him as a much more distant second to McDavid. I could be wrong. Maybe McDavid does blow him out of the water right out of the gate, but I’m not counting any Calder Trophies just yet. Eichel could very well win it and the Oilers’ drought in that category continues.

    Either way, Buffalo and Edmonton are both so lucky. Very happy regardless of what happens.

    40GP-26G-45A-71P (+51) playing against 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 year olds is just a mind-blowing freshman year as well. I say this as an owner of a McDavid jersey.

  81. blackadder says:

    The best predictor of future behaviour is past behaviour. This is a basic principle in my line of work (corrections) and works equally well when drafting. Drafting Zacha or Crouse and expecting top 6 production is not realistic based on their history. It’s drafting based on conventional wisdom. Whoever drafts them will be getting good players, but drafting barzal, Merkley or Meier will get teams better ones.

  82. Rondo says:

    Lowetide,

    Konecny is an elite skater . The reason I don’t like Merkley and Beauvillier they are only above average skaters and with that size I don’t think it translates well in the the NHL. Assuming they are 1st rd picks

  83. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Zacha is the ultimate “tools/saw-him-good/projection-by-scouts/eye-test” experiment vs. the NHLEs. His numbers just do not back up a top ten draft position in this amazing draft.

    Crouse is seemingly in a similar situation but even more polarizing. People are tired of hunting for Lucic and winding up with Moroz. Reality likely is Crouse is a lot better than Moroz will ever be, but may not be as good as the scouts think.

    As LT says, the math says Beauvillier , on the other hand is an experiment going the other way (math says yes, scouts say no). In Yakupov’s draft year, remember Hertl’s NHLE was eye-popping and we asked, “Who is Tomas Hertl, and maybe we should learn more about him.” Would love to nab him at 33.

    Going to be an interesting draft!

  84. SwedishPoster says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    The math does NOT say that Zacha is a bad bet. I’ll be done editing my draft year PPG work by tomorrow, With some added stuff. If G Moneys’ offer still stands you’ll see it up on his blog soon. I’ll give you the reasoning by then.

  85. spoiler says:

    Woodguy:
    Andy Grabia (used to be a regular here) posted in 2008 on drafting for need using quote from Paul Depodesta at BoA:

    http://battleofalberta.blogspot.ca/2008/06/on-drafting.html

    Good read.

    Also,

    Other old LT regular Lord Bob nailed it with Eberle.

    He was higher on him than anyone iirc.

    There was a lot of guys high on Ebs, although maybe LB was the most vocal. Even LT liked him (although he thought Riley Nash was better, the weirdo).

  86. fifthcartel says:

    I’m excited to hear they interview Sprong among others. Although, I would be surprised if they made more than one of the picks (16, 33, MTL 2nd) after they pick McJesus.

  87. G Money says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I think this is a good way of putting it.

    The “traditional way” is to use the eyes to set the baseline, then (in some cases) use the math as a tiebreaker.

    The “Moneypuck way” is to use the math to set the baseline, then use the eyes to differentiate.

    The latter is obviously hated by the traditionalists because: “watch the game”, “get your nose out of the spreadsheets”, etc.

    But post-facto analysis indicates that the latter would have demonstrably improved many traditional teams drafting if it had been applied.

    To my mind, the role of stats in hockey is analogous to the use of accounting measures in business (though quite a bit less mature at this time).

    If I “scout” a business, go in and see that the tables are busy and the food seems pretty good, and conclude that its a successful business … I will be surprised if the business shuts down next week. But it happens.

    The reason it happens is because all I’ve done is sampled a sliver of that business. Maybe I showed up the one hour a week that the restaurant is busy (kind of like the scout who goes to the one game that a prospect plays out of his head). But it speaks nothing as to how efficiently the business is being run. What are their input costs? What are their operating costs? Are they charging enough? Are they busy enough overall?

    Conversely, before I ever touch the food, if I look at the accounting measures and they are solid: the volume is steady, revenue is solid, costs are low, and as a result, the restaurant is profitable. Chances are, this restaurant is going to last. Even if the food isn’t particularly good, or it isn’t busy when I visit.

    Of course, I’d still want to experience the food, service, etc. A poor dining experience will likely eventually show in the numbers. (But not necessarily – if you’re the only restaurant in town, a mediocre experience together with reasonable prices might be more than enough).

    Anyone evaluating a business should look at the numbers AND the business. But if they contradict, take the numbers. Fortunes are made in business that way.

    And in case anyone’s forgotten … hockey is a business.

  88. Woodguy says:

    NYCOIL "Taking Photos": Disagree with “most.”

    Absolutely true Oilers were never going to get Eichel because he would go 2nd and Oilers had zero chance of that. But while a few posters such as you have acknowledged Eichel as the Malkin in the Ovechkin/Malkin draft, far more have not seen it that way. Some posts saying the Oilers should never consider trading McDavid for the “Barnaby-proposed package” (Eichel, Zadorov, Ristolainen, 21st overall), or that they don’t see why Eichel is considered the 2nd best prospect since Crosby at the time of drafting.

    A few posters, such as you, may have his value pegged correctly; I think many see him as a much more distant second to McDavid. I could be wrong. Maybe McDavid does blow him out of the water right out of the gate, but I’m not counting any Calder Trophies just yet. Eichel could very well win it and the Oilers’ drought in that category continues.

    Either way, Buffalo and Edmonton are both so lucky. Very happy regardless of what happens.

    40GP-26G-45A-71P (+51) playing against 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 year olds is just a mind-blowing freshman year as well. I say this as an owner of a McDavid jersey.

    I think what helps McDavid win the Calder is the presence of RNH and Hall.

    Opposing teams have sent their top pairing out against Hall since the middle of his second season.

    If Hall plays with RNH, that will give McDavid some shelter to score.

    Eichel will be 1C for BUF the second he steps on the ice and will see the best of the best from the start.

    My guess.

  89. spoiler says:

    Woodguy: I’ll say this about Crouse:
    Seems to have the tools, but the fact that he couldn’t create offence on his own is a major concern.
    His defenders usually say “he didn’t have a C all year”
    Others (like DrySaddle for instance) played on teams with meh help too and still managed to create offence.

    Eberle is probably the poster boy for this.

  90. G Money says:

    SwedishPoster: If G Moneys’ offer still stands you’ll see it up on his blog soon. I’ll give you the reasoning by then.

    You bet!

  91. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    gd:
    With Detroit picking 19th, I think if they take him we will regret not getting him at 16.

    Given how much better Detroit has been for long stretches of time at this fundamental discipline, it’s almost tautological that we end up regretting not having chosen whomever Detroit picked on a neighboring rung.

    It’s like that scene in the restaurant. I’ll have what she’s having.

    Of course, Detroit is picking prospects with potential that they are able and willing to develop properly, so it’s quite possible in the Walt Disney movie where we trade choices—lovable delinquent in high tops climbs the ivy and sneaks through an open bedroom window—we still end up feeling the same way.

    Then sometime around scene thirty we’ll have the character growth moment where the luckless protagonist finally realizes it’s not about what his foil is doing, but how his foil is doing it.

    Only then a green meteor strikes, and overnight you’re bulked up like John Candy dunked at birth into a giant vat of myostatin blockers and you’re swinging it with a red-headed Aunt Hetty from the Road to Avonlea with the weird, alien boob wink and to hell with all that clean living Kesuke Miyagi crap.

    ———

    If you skipped the other links, at least don’t miss the whippet.

  92. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    I don’t fully agree with the goalie/defenseman narrative that seems to carry the day. I am going to try to do my best non stat Woodguy/Frjohnk regarding current NHL goalies.

    I realize goalies are voodoo, and defensemen break hearts, but what does this year’s starting goalie list look like compared to their draft position.

    Please correct me if I mess something up.

    These are the goalies in order of GP this reg season. I’ll list player, round, draft position number, and maybe a comment:

    Price 1 / 5 – the best
    Quick 3 / 72 – inconsistent
    Rask 1 / 21 – near the top
    Schneider 1 / 26 – great, the Canucks and Brodeur ate his career as he is 29
    Holtby 4 / 93 – still not established but promising
    Lehtonen 1 / 2 – was at the top, in decline
    Rinne 8 / 258 – great, drafted 2004, I think these late Euros are a thing of the past unless outliers
    Fleury 1 / 1 – a poor decision hampering the franchise
    Bishop 3 / 85 – hasn’t been consistent
    Smith 5 / 161 – hasn’t been consistent
    Niemi undrafted – signed 2008, again these days are gone
    Luongo 1 / 4 – outstanding, probably the best in the last decade
    Halak 9 / 271 – drafted 2003
    Dubnyk 1/ 14 – this was a seen him good and a mistake, but he has been ‘good’ if spotty
    Bernier 1 / 11 – he’s good but probably too high. He’s still a desired player
    Crawford 2 / 52 – good not great
    Varlamov 1 / 23 – one of the best young goalies
    Scrivens undrafted – yup
    Andersen 7 / 197 and 3 / 87 – average player, can get hot
    Howard 2 / 64 – average
    Hiller undrafted – signed 2007, 8 years ago
    Bobrovsky undrafted – signed 2010, 5 years ago when seen as risky
    Ward 1 / 25 – won his team a Cup, league bottom third
    Mason 3 / 69 – inconsistent
    Pavelec 2 / 41 – not great
    Enroth 2 / 46 – unestablished, average
    Lundqvist 7 / 205 – the king, drafted 2000, not happening anymore
    Elliot 09 / 291 – below average and inconsistent
    Miller 5 / 138 – has been good, drafted 1999, great college numbers, would go higher now
    Lack undrafted – signed 2010, 5 years ago, hard to find that now

    What I see is that the majority of the best players are first rounders. There are a few legacy Euro signings and I think there are no untapped markets because of their success and the troubles in the KHL.

    The majority of the players not first rounders or legacy players aren’t that good. These are the 2014/2015 starting goalies, and I think we can conclude that drafting the best goalie (as well as can be determined) for his peer group results quite often in a league top player at that position.

    The rub is when the first team takes a goalie and how bad you need one. Can the Oilers gamble that the Russian or the guy that comes with a mask already will still be there at 33? Is there a better chance a good D will be there at 33?

    I’d take skill and the BPA, but it is a judgement call the later the round. I value hockey sense, skill, assertiveness, speed, consistency / dedication. I’d go:

    1. McDavid
    16. Samsonov
    33. RHD (Roy falls a bit). I take Samsonov/Blackwood here if not a goalie at 16
    57. Centre, preferrably RH (Novak, JF Karlsson)
    79. RHD (R Andersson, Will Borgen)
    86. Centre (Julius Nattinen, Speers)

  93. spoiler says:

    G Money: To my mind, the role of stats in hockey is analogous to the use of accounting measures in business (though quite a bit less mature at this time).
    If I “scout” a business, go in and see that the tables are busy and the food seems pretty good, and conclude that its a successful business … I will be surprised if the business shuts down next week. But it happens.
    The reason it happens is because all I’ve done is sampled a sliver of that business. Maybe I showed up the one hour a week that the restaurant is busy (kind of like the scout who goes to the one game that a prospect plays out of his head). But it speaks nothing as to how efficiently the business is being run. What are their input costs? What are their operating costs? Are they charging enough? Are they busy enough overall?
    Conversely, before I ever touch the food, if I look at the accounting measures and they are solid: the volume is steady, revenue is solid, costs are low, and as a result, the restaurant is profitable. Chances are, this restaurant is going to last. Even if the food isn’t particularly good, or it isn’t busy when I visit.
    Of course, I’d still want to experience the food, service, etc. A poor dining experience will likely eventually show in the numbers. (But not necessarily – if you’re the only restaurant in town, a mediocre experience together with reasonable prices might be more than enough).
    Anyone evaluating a business should look at the numbers AND the business. But if they contradict, take the numbers. Fortunes are made in business that way

    This is beautiful and the best analogy I’ve ever read on the issue.

    Not to mention, people don’t realize the impact that the invention of double-entry bookkeeping had on humanity. One of the most important inventions of the modern world (quickly followed by the invention of double-book bookkeeping).

  94. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Woodguy: I think what helps McDavid win the Calder is the presence of RNH and Hall.

    Opposing teams have sent their top pairing out against Hall since the middle of his second season.

    If Hall plays with RNH, that will give McDavid some shelter to score.

    Eichel will be 1C for BUF the second he steps on the ice and will see the best of the best from the start.

    My guess.

    All very fair. I’d add to your point that 6’2″, 193lbs as of now, going against mostly smaller or less physical top Cs in the East (Crosby, Stepan/Brassard,Bergeron,Datsyuk,Backstrom,Plekanec,Turris, Bozak, Stamkos/Johnson, etc.) he may score a little more (plus get Eastern media exposure more) than McDavid vs. some of the Western beasts in year one? Career-wise, I take McDavid, but year one could be interesting to watch. Correction, WILL be interesting to watch both. Exciting times for these two suffering fan bases.

  95. supernova says:

    NYCOIL "Taking Photos": Disagree with “most.”

    Absolutely true Oilers were never going to get Eichel because he would go 2nd and Oilers had zero chance of that. But while a few posters such as you have acknowledged Eichel as the Malkin in the Ovechkin/Malkin draft, far more have not seen it that way. Some posts saying the Oilers should never consider trading McDavid for the “Barnaby-proposed package” (Eichel, Zadorov, Ristolainen, 21st overall), or that they don’t see why Eichel is considered the 2nd best prospect since Crosby at the time of drafting.

    A few posters, such as you, may have his value pegged correctly; I think many see him as a much more distant second to McDavid. I could be wrong. Maybe McDavid does blow him out of the water right out of the gate, but I’m not counting any Calder Trophies just yet. Eichel could very well win it and the Oilers’ drought in that category continues.

    Either way, Buffalo and Edmonton are both so lucky. Very happy regardless of what happens.

    40GP-26G-45A-71P (+51) playing against 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23 year olds is just a mind-blowing freshman year as well. I say this as an owner of a McDavid jersey.

    Back in November / December there was a decent amount of talk for that time of year (not really draft talk time).

    In My opinion it seemed most fans where somewhat content that we would get Eichel or McDavid. The fan base was angry because once again we were in another lost season.

    The chance to get Eichel or McDavid is what helped a lot of this, as the Oilers “climbed” out of Last the talk of Eichel seemed to disappear.

    I don’t think that is any disregard to Eichels skills just a matter of reality,

    By all accounts he looks like perhaps the best prospect since Crosby aside from McDavid.

    Who wouldn’t Want a 6’2 200LB right handed Center with all the tools?

  96. Aitch says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”,

    I just did something similar and looked at wins. I think it was 11 or 12 of the top 30 were taken in the first round. Every player is a gamble, but to ignore the most important piece of your team in the first round seems like folly to me. (I like to quote LT’s “voodoo” line in relation to goalies, but I’m starting to think that they’re no more unpredictable than any of the rest. They just stand out more to their uniqueness.)

  97. gd says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”,

    I think the problems with drafting goalies besides them being voodoo are:

    -The long development path, which is really problematic with UFA age being 27
    -The fact that there are only 30 1st string jobs and probably about 45 guys every year who could be starters, so there is a supply/demand issue. There are 180 starting D jobs and maybe 150 qualified guys, so even a number 5 guy is valuable, even if that is a disappointing 1st/2nd round pick.

    It looks to me like you are better off in investing in finding top-notch goalie development people and pick one a year in the 4th or 5th round and if none of them pan out, use a 2nd pick to trade for a Talbot/Lack like guy.

  98. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Scott Cullen ‏@tsnscottcullen now32 seconds ago
    Lawson Crouse – 6’4″, 210.9 lbs

    Man-boy there. I wonder how he did in the standing jump and pullups?

    Edit: Crowse jump: https://video.twimg.com/ext_tw_video/607237425371320320/pu/vid/1280×720/ST4TQbIsq2uslgRC.mp4

    Also:

    DaveDavisHockey
    @DaveDavisHockey
    Eichel measured 7.1% body fat and had the top result of all participants in 5 of the tests. His 26.18 vertical jump was scary good.

  99. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    The math does NOT say that Zacha is a bad bet. I’ll be done editing
    my draft year PPG work by tomorrow, With some added stuff. If G Moneys’ offer still stands you’ll see it up on his blog soon. I’ll give you the reasoning by then.

    Cool. Can’t wait to see it and I’ll happily retract my statement when presented with this evidence.

    stephen sheps,

    I hear you. I was aggressively agreeing with you and expanding on your point more than anything.

  100. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    I know we don’t have to worry about it now as we’re not looking at Hanifin/Marner/Strome anymore, but a fun read for draft fans nonetheless (New England Hockey Journal draft primer)

    http://digital.hockeyjournal.com/nxtbooks/seamans/nehj_201506/#/14

  101. Mr DeBakey says:

    Mr DeBakey: Famous names missing include:
    24 Crouse, Lawson
    33 Merkley, Nick
    37 Zacha, Pavel

    And, the guys who really out-perform their Rankings using this little ES Goals + Points exercise are:

    9. Salituro, Dante C Ottawa 67’s = 1.07
    17. Korostelev, Nikita RW Sarnia Sting = 1.00
    27. Gabrielle, Jesse LW Regina Pats = 0.85
    29. Addison, Jeremiah RW Ottawa 67’s = 0.83
    31. Joseph, Mathieu RW Saint John = 0.81

  102. stephen sheps says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    ha! awesome… duly noted

    and perhaps as a result of our little exchange we got more brilliance from G Money. Everyone wins! (except the math haters…)

  103. G Money says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

    It always requires an element of caution when we talk about the size of players, but depending on the style of play, it can matter.

    It’s interesting to note that as rookies, both Eichel and McDavid will already be ‘into the curve’ for the size of NHL C, and I suspect by the time they are fully grown, will both be above average.

    I think that’s one of the reasons people are high on McDavid.

    Eichel has a complete skillset, but is seen as playing a ‘power game’. He’ll be big, but will he be big enough to continue to do that in the NHL?

    McDavid is ridiculously skilled, has ridiculous vision, and is ridiculously fast. And in the NHL, he’ll likely be in the vicinity of 6’1″ and 200 lbs within a year or two, and will package all that skill while paying absolutely no size penalty (a la RNH) at all.

    For those who care about such arcane, here are the histograms for NHL C (from the 2013-2014 season):

    http://i.imgur.com/7gLZBU0.png
    http://i.imgur.com/6NoFrZP.png

  104. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    G Money,

    Oh yeah, no disagreement at all there. I take McDavid for career. All I said was 1) it’s closer than quite a few people think, 2) year one Eichel’s game “may be” more NHL Eastern Conference ready than McDavid’s is Western Conf. ready.

  105. Lowetide says:

    spoiler: There was a lot of guys high on Ebs, although maybe LB was the most vocal.Even LT liked him (although he thought Riley Nash was better, the weirdo).

    Nope. I had Eberle No. 16, thrilled when they took him

    https://lowetide.ca/2008/06/20/draft-week-post-8-top-30/

  106. spoiler says:

    Lowetide,

    Yes you were, but also this…

    Lowetide: I don’t know the answer, but Nash has a wider range of skills which means there are more spots in the batting order you can play him.

    Eberle’s a first baseman who can play LF and hit homers, Nash can help you at CF and play 3B, RF, LF and 1B along the defensive spectrum.

    I think what you were saying is that Nash was a safer pick.

  107. spoiler says:

    Mr DeBakey: And, the guys who really out-perform their Rankings using this little ES Goals + Points exercise are:

    9. Salituro, DanteCOttawa 67’s=1.07
    17. Korostelev, NikitaRWSarnia Sting=1.00
    27. Gabrielle, JesseLWRegina Pats=0.85
    29. Addison, JeremiahRWOttawa 67’s=0.83
    31. Joseph, MathieuRWSaint John=0.81

    Really like Salituro…

    You are going to post your draft rankings, right? Can’t keep teasing us for weeks with these snippets without a payoff at the end.

  108. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    1-McDavid
    16-Kylington
    33-Sprong
    57-Dergachyov

    Might be a nice top half of the draft?

  109. Jaxon says:

    I am hoping the Oilers draft for need this time around. BPA is fine for top 10 picks and for teams that aren’t stacked with prospects and young players at certain positions and absolutely bare bones at others. I also, think the Oilers should draft for size, speed and skill.

    At Center the future is pretty set for the Oilers. McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins, Draisaitl, Lander, Yakimov. Done.

    At Left Wing, things are looking good. Hall and Pouliot (former #4 overall) are a great top 2LW. Slepyshev could be a great #3 or even #2. I still think they should go grab UFA Blake Comeau and use Hendricks (who just came off a great year and captained the US at the Worlds) as trade bait. They have a few prospects on the left side, but nothing great.

    On Left D, we are very set. In fact, there is no room for any new players or prospects. I hope they can shed Ference somehow and maybe Nikitin and bring in a short term vet like Ehrhoff or Sekara to bridge the gap for Nurse and Klefbom to take over. Sekara or Ehrhoff, Klefbom, Nurse, Marincin, Nikitin, Ference, Lelaggia, Gernat, Musil, Simpson, Betker, Oesterle, Hunt, Davidson. That’s 14. Stop with the left D already. The cupboard is full.

    On RW, things are a bit less certain. Eberle, gold. Yakupov, not so much. I think I’d even maybe try Pakarinen with McDavid and Hall before Yakupov. After Eberle, Yakupov and Pakarinen, it is a group of hopefuls in Chase, Pitlick and Platzer. I’m ready to give up on Pitlick. I don’t think he’ll ever bring the offense required. I think the Oilers should be keeping their eyes open for big, fast skilled wingers that can score goals. We should be trying to support McDavid with a goal scorer in case Yakupov doesn’t turn the corner. Draft one that can keep up with McDavid and Hall and create some room with their size and dig picks out of the corner.

    On RD, there is nobody but Fayne and Schultz as players or prospects. Fayne is great as a 2nd pairing guy. Schultz, I don’t mind as long as he is a 3rd pair, offensive zone, PP guy. Even then I’m not so sure. I hope that they go out and grab Cody Franson, a big, hitting, offensive D to play on the top pair with Sekara or Ehrhoff. With that in mind, they need to restock the RD prospect cupboard big time with guys who will grow with McDavid and can move into a spot vacated by Schultz or Fayne when their contracts are up or sooner. Big, offensive, with good defensive awareness.

    In goal, I think drafting is a fool’s errand, so I wouldn’t spend any picks on goalies until the 4th round. There has been some interesting work done that shows many of the NHL’s top goalies have not been acquired through the draft, especially in the 1st few rounds. (http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=751852) They develop later so scouting them is a huge problem. Scout them in lower leagues and procure them via free agency and trades. I’m hoping they can grab Talbot from NYR (and maybe take a flyer on a couple prospects like Dylan McIlrath and Keegan Iverson) along with a short expensive contract like Boyle’s.

    So with that strategy in mind this is what I’ve come up with. I did not go for any LW or LD and considered right shooting Cs. They had to be at least 6’1″ tall or at least 190 lbs, which isn’t huge, but it is at least as big as McDavid and Duncan Keith. The scouting reports I could find couldn’t have anything about bad work ethic or major speed issues or lazy backchecking. I put a lot of emphasis on NHLE as well to make sure they had some skill. for RWs I put extra emphasis on goal scoring as they could end up on McDavid’s wing and he likes to pass more than shoot. (excuse the formatting, sorry)

    # Player AGE POS HT (“) WT (lbs) Shoots League NHLE G NHLE A NHLE P
    1 CONNOR MCDAVID 18.39 C 73 190 L OHL 24 39 63
    16 BROCK BOESER 18.28 RW 73 192 R USHL 14 13 26
    16 DANIEL SPRONG 18.22 RW 72 192 R QMJHL 14 16 30
    33 JACK ROSLOVIC 18.35 RW 73 183 R USHL 10 24 34
    33 NICOLAS MELOCHE 17.88 RD 74 198 R QMJHL 6 13 19
    33 DENIS GURYANOV 18.00 RW 74 192 L MHL 13 8 20
    57 RASMUS ANDERSSON 18.61 RD 72 209 R OHL 4 18 22
    57 LOIK LEVEILLE 18.69 RD 72 220 R QMJHL 5 14 19
    79 JAKOB FORSBACKA-KARLSSON 18.60 RW 73 185 R USHL 7 17 23
    79 ZACHARY SENYSHYN 18.18 RW 74 194 R OHL 9 7 16
    86 NIKITA KOROSTELEV 18.32 RW 73 196 R OHL 10 13 23
    86 YAKOV TRENIN 18.39 LW 74 179 L QMJHL 7 20 27
    86 CHRISTIAN FISCHER 18.14 RW 73 212 R USDP 10 11 21
    86 NICOLAS ROY 18.33 RW 76 203 R QMJHL 6 12 18
    86 KEEGAN KOLESAR 18.16 RW 74 216 R WHL 7 7 15
    117 BEST GOALIE AVAILABLE (BGA)
    124 BEST GOALIE AVAILABLE (BGA)
    154 VLADIMIR TKACHEV 19.67 LW 70 154 R QMJHL 8 15 23
    184 THOMAS SCHEMITSCH 18.61 RD 75 201 R OHL 5 12 17

    For some of these players, I would pick them even higher than I’ve shown, but most scouting lists show that there is a very reasonable chance to grab them where I’ve shown.

    I’d love Rantanen or Meier but I didn’t include them as I’m 99% positive they won’t be available at 16. If they are, then great, grab them. Boeser and Raslovic are very interesting players, especially Raslovic. He started the season slow and then burned it up (http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/sports/2015/05/06/Roslovic_5-6.html) . Guryanov sounds like one of the most complete players in the draft and he may fall a bit because of the ‘Russian factor’. I have no idea why Meloche, Rasmus Andersson and Loik Leveille are not higher on scouts’ lists. They are big and reports show them with a fairly complete game and they bring offense very well. Their NHLEs of 22 (Andersson and Leveille) and 19 (Meloche) are right up there with the best from the top 16 in drafts since 2008. I’ve kpet Trenin on my list just because I’d like another ‘Yak’ player. I’m a geek. I know we, as Oiler fans, really want to pick up Tkachev, but I don’t see any scouting lists that have him higher than 218, so I think grabbing him at 154 is plenty early. If someone else takes him sooner, so be it. He didn’t exactly light it up this year.

  110. NYCOIL "Taking Photos" says:

    Lowetide: Nope. I had Eberle No. 16, thrilled when they took him

    https://lowetide.ca/2008/06/20/draft-week-post-8-top-30/

    5 years, 5 years, 5 years. So tough to call some of these guys at the time.

  111. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    1-McDavid
    16-Kylington
    33-Sprong
    57-Dergachyov

    Might be a nice top half of the draft?

    That would make me happy. Very close to what I would do.

  112. Snowman says:

    John Chambers,

    Thanks I appreciate that. I’m not a big draft junkie although there is almost nothing I like more than watching a kid play his first pro game but I’m always interested in getting a better idea of exactly how fortunate we’ve been with our first picks.

  113. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Here are the goalies with the age they started to play about 25-30 games and contribute:

    Price 1 / 5 – 20
    Quick 3 / 72 – 22
    Rask 1 / 21 – 22
    Schneider 1 / 26 – 24 (college), was ready before but behind Luongo
    Holtby 4 / 93 – 23
    Lehtonen 1 / 2 – 22
    Rinne 8 / 258 – 26
    Fleury 1 / 1 – 21
    Bishop 3 / 85 – 27
    Smith 5 / 161 – 26
    Niemi undrafted – 27
    Luongo 1 / 4 – 21
    Halak 9 / 271 – 23
    Dubnyk 1/ 14 – 24
    Bernier 1 / 11 – 22
    Crawford 2 / 52 – 26
    Varlamov 1 / 23 – 21
    Scrivens undrafted – 26
    Andersen 7 / 197 and 3 / 87 – 24
    Howard 2 / 64 – 25
    Hiller undrafted – 25
    Bobrovsky undrafted – 22
    Ward 1 / 25 – 21
    Mason 3 / 69 – 20
    Pavelec 2 / 41 – 22
    Enroth 2 / 46 – 23
    Lundqvist 7 / 205 – 23
    Elliot 09 / 291 – 23
    Miller 5 / 138 – 25
    Lack undrafted – 25

    The average age is 23 and a bit, but the higher drafted players start about 21-22 YO. Top players start contributing earlier at every position.

    Goalies and defense can’t be sheltered like forwards so the consequences of their inexperience is more dramatic but I think they are playing at the same level.

    The less skilled, the less dedicated, and players taken too high to cover the bet take more time but can become contributors at the NHL level. Top of the draft players chosen correctly are not far out of the NHL if handled properly.

    High end youth can contribute well soon, but teams that can’t scout, sign or trade well like the Oilers struggled with relying on them too much and don’t provide capable veterans for that whole mentoring/winning piece.

    Warren Moon needs his Tom Wilkinson, Gretzky needs his Stan Weir.

  114. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Lowetide: The Oilers have been spending considerable draft assets on defense and in fact this isn’t the major area of weakness now.It’s goal and RW. Wrote about it here

    https://lowetide.ca/2014/12/29/edmonton-oilers-prospects-winter-2014/

    I’d say they are pretty thin on the right side as a whole. I’m not a big fan off off wing D especially if passing and puck movement are valued. Perhaps one of the left siders can excel, but they are still thin.

  115. Kermodoil says:

    The Oilers, need to draft a goalie at some point, that has potential to be a franchise goalie. Otherwise we are continuing the practice of trying to find someone, that can hold us over for a few years.

    Samsonov, may be that goalie. The question is, would he be available at #33, if so then take him. If not, then who is the next best goalie available?

    Defence – preferably the best available at #16, whether that is Chabot, Zboril or Roy – my preference is in that order.

    LT – what do you think about the overager Gavrikiov at 86. If he isn’t signed to the KHL, he could come over in October and at least play in the ECHL or AHL. He had a great WJHC, has the size, skating, nastiness, etc

    Hockey Futures analysis – A big defenseman with some good mobility, Gavrikov can throw the body around and play with some good edge and grit. He plays more of a defensive style and isn’t a top contributor in the offensive zone, but is good in killing penalties and can play in different situations. His skating needs some work, as does his reactiveness and positional play.

  116. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Scott Cullen retweeted
    Craig Custance ‏@CraigCustance 3m3 minutes ago
    Three teams have expressed interest in moving into the Coyotes spot at No. 3 in the draft. Arizona, with wide range of needs, listening.

  117. Woodguy says:

    spoiler: Eberle is probably the poster boy for this.

    Agreed.

    He was a winger without a lot of help and still put up 1.07

  118. speeds says:

    spoiler:
    LT said…
    By the way, it’s probably reasonable to use Beauvillier as a test for the 30 teams. He’s value (imo) in the middle of round one, impressive value in round one. Anything beyond that and it’s a steal. We wait.

    If the Oilers were to take Beauvillier at 16, we would have to castigate the scouting staff on the same level we villified them for Moroz, no?Moroz was taken about 20 spots early at the beginning of the 2nd round and Beauvillier would be going about 30 spots early in the mid-first, so even more “off the board”.

    Just sayin’.

    The main reason people didn’t love the Moroz pick was not because it was off the board relative to consensus, although that was also true, but because they didn’t think he was the best option to be selected at that draft slot.

  119. Bag of Pucks says:

    @RIP Fan Winkle

    I’m probably one of the noisiest ‘draft a goalie high’ advocates here but even I can’t rationalize picking a G with that #16 pick.

    A good GM has to be cognizant of market forces and its extremely likely Samsonov is still on the board at # 33. If he’s not, Vladar is a helluva consolation prize.

  120. Woodguy says:

    Anton Stralman has an interesting take on fancystats:

    https://twitter.com/cmasisak22/status/607214127338147840/photo/1

  121. spoiler says:

    Isn’t Slip Slappy a RWer, LHS playing off wing? Chase too will be a RWer. To me that’s more depth than we have at RD..

    And where are we projecting Lander or Draisaitl? Won’t one of them be on the wing at some point in the future?

    I have Kylington ahead of Roy, Zboril too, but I probably take Roy with the 16th, just because he’s a RHS. I don’t think the clearance between him and the other two is enough to know know they will turn out better.

    I have Meier and Svechnikov in a tier above those guys and don’t think I could pass either of them if given the opportunity though.

  122. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    Isn’t Slip Slappy a RWer, LHS playing off wing? Chase too will be a RWer.To me that’s more depth than we have at RD..

    And where are we projecting Lander or Draisaitl? Won’t one of them be on the wing at some point in the future?

    I have Kylington ahead of Roy, Zboril too, but I probably take Roy with the 16th, just because he’s a RHS.I don’t think the clearance between him and the other two is enough to know know they will turn out better.

    I have Meier and Svechnikov in a tier above those guys and don’t think I could pass either of them if given the opportunity though.

    Sleppy listed as a LW in several spots

  123. spoiler says:

    speeds: The main reason people didn’t love the Moroz pick was not because it was off the board relative to consensus, although that was also true, but because they didn’t think he was the best option to be selected at that draft slot.

    Oh for sure, but some of the vilification came due to it being off the board.

    Beauvillier also doesn’t have me convinced, although I have him higher than Bobby Mac does too. Eventually the points are impossible to ignore. But when there’s a lot of talent still on the board, I’m a little more risk averse. So I wouldn’t be happy with the pick itself at 16, much in the same way as those not happy with Moroz not being the best option at his spot (which I agree with).

  124. John Chambers says:

    Snowman,

    Since the Taylor / Tyler draft, a ranking of picks from then til now might look like:

    McDavid
    Eichel
    MacKinnon
    Ekblad
    Hall
    Seguin
    Hanifin
    Jones
    RNH
    Reinhart
    Tarasenko
    Strome
    Marner
    Monahan
    Johansson
    Forsberg
    Galchenyuk
    Draisaitl
    Trouba
    Fowler / Reilly

  125. spoiler says:

    Lowetide: Sleppy listed as a LW in several spots

    Ahh. Just looked it up, thanks. He’s playing off-wing–thought I had read that–but didn’t realize he’s a RHS playing off-wing.

  126. spoiler says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    Scott Cullen retweetedCraig Custance ‏@CraigCustance3m3 minutes ago
    Three teams have expressed interest in moving into the Coyotes spot at No. 3 in the draft. Arizona, with wide range of needs, listening.

    Wonder who the target is, Strome, Marner or Hanifin?

    I can see Boston going after Hanifin. Colorado too. Maybe the new GM in Joisy.

  127. Rondo says:

    Jaxon,

    Re: Jack Roslovic

    “Roslovic had one goal and five assists in his first 15 games this season. He had 26 goals and 47 assists in the final 50 games, including a huge goal — “The biggest of my career, absolutely” — in Team USA’s gold-medal win over Finland on April 26 in the Under-18 world championship in Switzerland.”

  128. Regretzky says:

    It would be awesome if these lists indicated what hand the D’s shoot. Obviously most interested in who shoots right handed in this years draft.

  129. hunter1909 says:

    Is there a structural engineer in the house?

    Q: How the hell do rusty iron girders work when building skyscrapers, hockey arenas, etc? Wouldn’t it be better if they were painted, or kept out of the rain so as not to be…well…rusty? How on earth can they work as effectively as non-rusty pieces of iron?

  130. hunter1909 says:

    I watched a highlight reel of Eichel, and one of McDavid. Eichel I’m sure would be a wonderful addition to any NHL team, but McDavid does that crazy puck control thingy while teetering on a fulcrum. Awe-inspiring.

    Eichel’s going to be very good(and knows it). On the other hand, McDavid’s an absolute maniac. He probably still loses sleep over a random dropped pass from 3 seasons back.

  131. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide: Nope. I had Eberle No. 16, thrilled when they took him

    https://lowetide.ca/2008/06/20/draft-week-post-8-top-30/

    spoiler: Even LT liked him (although he thought Riley Nash was better, the weirdo)

    Different draft years, but natural for anyone to compare them after the oil picked them a year apart around the same spot.

  132. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    I wasn’t quite sure what to say about that whippet, but now it occurs to me that if I owned my very own tower of power with the rippled-whippet condition, right after waxing the floors—I realize that one does not normally wax tile—I would say “run, Crazy Dane, fetch me a Coke.”

    And he’d come back with a 2 L coke magically balanced on his meaty breast shelf (speaking of which, Serena at 20 > Tiger at 12, just saying).

    Then the Coca Cola company would finish their global replacement of the 2 L bottle with the new 1.75 L bottle, and the tiny bottle would look so ridiculously small, I’d never do it again. The thrill would be gone. In the sad aftermath, somehow I’d have to vend a half-depleted plastic clamshell of Turtle Wax on eBay as “less than mint”.

  133. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    @RIP Fan Winkle

    I’m probably one of the noisiest ‘draft a goalie high’ advocates here but even I can’t rationalize picking a G with that #16 pick.

    A good GM has to be cognizant of market forces and its extremely likely Samsonov is still on the board at # 33. If he’s not, Vladar is a helluva consolation prize.

    That’s what I had said, it depends how good you rate the goalie and whether you think he’s around later. I wouldn’t do it if he wasn’t stellar and I don’t know if Samsonov is or not, but that’s what they say.

  134. misfit says:

    spoiler: Wonder who the target is, Strome, Marner or Hanifin?

    I can see Boston going after Hanifin. Colorado too. Maybe the new GM in Joisy.

    Gotta be Hanifin IMO. Teams probably looking at Arizona with OEL (though I never understood why having 1 great defenseman would ever mean you would avoid adding a second) and not much up front being able to offer something up to get themselves into that spot to take the 3rd best player in the draft.

  135. OilLeak says:

    Looking at birthdates I’m come around on Crouse a little. Crouse is nearly 8 months younger than Meier, and if in last years draft his numbers would not be impressive. The age difference has to account for something even though they both have 2 years in the CHL.

    Crouse at 16 might be ok depending on who’s still on the board.

  136. rickithebear says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    I can’t find anything but scraps about Jeremy Lauzon.Despite that I’m sure you have him too low.

    I’ve been sure that both Svechnikov and J Roy would be gone at 16, thus focusing on young Mr Harkins in that spot.Mckenzie has all 3 sitting there at 16.

    * * *

    When looking at players I like to run their counting numbers thru a little formula, [G + Pts] / GP.
    I think it gives a useful number, a sort of super-charged PPG.

    This week I ran up a spreadsheet using ES numbers only.
    Here are the Top 20 Forwards:
    McDavid, Connor=2.21
    Strome, Dylan=1.62
    Marner, Mitchell=1.38
    Svechnikov, Evgeny=1.35
    Konecny, Travis=1.17
    Meier, Timo=1.16
    Timashov, Dmytro=1.15
    Yan, Dennis=1.08
    Salituro, Dante=1.07
    Chlapik, Filip=1.06
    Bittner, Paul=1.06
    Richard, Anthony=1.05
    Gropp, Ryan=1.04
    DeBrusk, Jake=1.04
    Gagné, Gabriel=1.01
    Sprong, Daniel=1.00
    Korostelev, Nikita=1.00
    Trenin, Yakov=0.98
    Barzal, Mathew=0.98
    Harkins, Jansen=0.97

    Famous names missing include:
    24Crouse, Lawson
    33Merkley, Nick
    37Zacha, Pavel

    Funny I went thru the invite list from the combine.
    Do not like your formula.
    The emphasis should be the end result. EVEN GOALS
    Was going to post pieces by league and region as we go along.
    Age NHLE for ME

    Jessie Gabrielle
    Regina Pats NR
    5’10.75″ 205lb 112pim
    Age NHLE
    19EVG 17EVA
    4 PPG 1 PPA

  137. One-Timer says:

    stephen sheps:
    Lowetide,

    6 pull-ups is still better than no pull-ups

    (edit: I know it was said yesterday, but man oh man is the NHL combine ever silly!)

    I just ripped off 12 pull-ups in my basement. (Officially)

    The oil should probably draft me ahead of CMD.

  138. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    hunter1909,

    Hi Hunter. I’m not a structural engineer, but I BELIEVE the type of metal dictates that type of rust. If the rust is tenacious (doesn’t flake off and instead forms a coating), then the rust does not form deeper. So the steel retains its strength as only a very thin layer oxidizes.

  139. wheatnoil says:

    NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
    1-McDavid
    16-Who cares we got McDavid!
    33- Remember yesterday when we drafted McDavid?
    57-WOOOOOOOOOTTTTTT

    Might be a nice top half of the draft?

    Fixed that for you.

  140. rickithebear says:

    Mathew Barzal:
    Seatle BM #9
    5’10.25″ 175lb
    Age NHLE
    12EVG 31 EVA
    2 PPG 23 PPA

    I take Gabrielle before this guy!
    The next Scott Gomez

  141. wheatnoil says:

    I think #33 is traded for sure. My guess is the offers for #16 won’t be quite good enough and there’ll be a tempting prospect that falls far enough that the Oilers stand and make the pick.

  142. PeOiler says:

    fifthcartel,

    What’s this about a Sprong interview? Did the Oilers talk to him?

  143. Bank Shot says:

    Woodguy:
    Here is Josh’s post at The Hockey Writers about the issue with some NHL scouting:

    http://thehockeywriters.com/the-nhl-has-a-scouting-problem/

    This is required reading for anyone with an interest in the draft.

    Note that 11 teams seem to do better than the rest on a continual basis.

    Its not a league wide inefficiency.Smart teams (like CHI, TBY) continue to exploit it.

    Tampa Bay is actually likely a poster boy for SAW HIM GOOD.

    Ondrej Palat was eligible for the draft in 2009. There are no stats available on ihdb for where he played that season. But in his post draft season he only produced 40 points in 59 games in the Q.

    Alexander Killorn posted 32 points in 25 games in his draft year. In US high school……… Would have been a guy to avoid by the math.

    Tyler Johnson (undrafted I know) but picked up by Tampa only scored 35 points in 69 games in the WHL in his draft year.

    That’s 3 players in Tampa’s top six forwards that were NOT PPG junior players in their draft years.

    We know players that go on to be top 6 in the NHL despite not posting PPG in their junior draft season aren’t common, but your claim that you can count them all on two hands is not accurate.

    Off the top of my head I can think of Ryan Johansen, Wheeler, Lucic, Simmonds, Glencross. I’m sure there are a lot more.

    I find it kind of funny that some of the biggest proponents of advanced stats find ways to look at the underlying numbers at the NHL level to find value in guys like Horcoff and Pisani while scoffing at the counting numbers, then turn around and boast going by the counting numbers as an improved method of scouting.

    Its pretty hypocritical. If you believe in the underlying numbers at the NHL level, then one should be admitting that scouting is shrouded in darkness and won’t improve until we have the underlying numbers for the teens.

  144. PeOiler says:

    PeOiler:
    fifthcartel,

    What’s this about a Sprong interview?Did the Oilers talk to him?

    Nevermind, I just found it on the Oilers site.

  145. hunter1909 says:

    HeatTreaterJoe,

    Thanks. Seeing rust on steel structures always left me wondering.

  146. Woodguy says:

    There was a post earlier about age considerations for draft eligible players.

    See Pronman’s tweet (click the link to read the paragraphs)

    @coreypronman: What is the most important research ever in NHL draft analytics? 2.5 paragraphs and a table in 2011 from @IainFyffe pic.twitter.com/b7sW5mPJLS

  147. rickithebear says:

    Sprong #33 BM
    CHarletown Islanders
    6,0″180lb
    Age NHLE
    18EVG 18 EVA
    12 PPG 19 PPA

    Gabrielle has better EV numbers.

  148. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy: 2.5 paragraphs and a table in 2011 from @IainFyffe pic.twitter.com/b7sW5mPJLS

    That is a table version of desjardins junior curves.

    What i refer to as Age NHLE since Desjardin first posted this
    before Sept 8 2008 when he di d Junior A equvalienies related to projections.

    Closer!

  149. VanOil says:

    The draft class looks excellent. I am surprised by Zacha being ranked by Mackenzie above Timo Meir and I wanted the Oilers to draft Zacha in the top 3 back in October. As the picks all look good until they are not here is what I would give up;

    33 overall for Lack or Talbot

    Schultz, Musil and 2016 2nd for Valsic or Burns (there is some crazy in SJ that needs to be capitalized on)

    Draft Musil’s replacement with the Mtl pick

    Sign Patrik Hersley

    Get to Penticton early for Rookie Camp

  150. OilClog says:

    Id take Hall over MacKinnon every day of the week.

    Nuge over Strome those same days.

    Madness.

    McJesus should recieve Hall and Yak.

    Let Nuge, Ebs, and Poo run their magic together.

    Tying Hall and Nuge together weakens the possible unrelenting pressure those two lines could substain. 4 and 93 are the strongest weapons we have lets Shelter McJesus properly.

    Does 16 and 33 land you Schneider, Devils will unload him for a chance to grab Matthews.

  151. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    spoiler: Q: How the hell do rusty iron girders work when building skyscrapers,

    I can’t see the return being enough for the Yotes to give it up. They don’t need a proven NHLer right now, as they’ve only just begun their rebuild, and from what I can tell, their fan-base hasn’t grown impatient yet.

    Edit: Now how did I do that? Supposed to be replying to Spoiler’s musing on the return for 3OV for Arizona.

  152. spoiler says:

    VanOil: Get to Penticton early for Rookie Camp

    Speaking of…

    Penticton Jazz Fest is on at the same time as the Young Stars tournament. If anyone here is planning on going, you might find it difficult to get a hotel room even this early. Just a heads up to start calling now and have a commute or camping as a backup plan.

  153. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    Good points.

    Next time I have a few hours I’ll run the top 60 or so and check them out.

    Will be an interesting excercise.

  154. wheatnoil says:

    Looking again at some of the birth-dates, I remain blown away that Werenski STILL isn’t 18. 6’2″, 214 lbs, July ’97. We talk about how Hanifin really turned up his offense at the mid-point of the season around his 18th birthday. Werenski isn’t even there yet. He’ll have finished his 4 years of NCAA before he turns 21!

    I don’t think he falls to #16 unless the GMs start going crazy, but if he starts slipping out of the top 10, it’d be awfully fun to trade up for him.

  155. SwedishPoster says:

    Bank Shot: Tampa Bay is actually likely a poster boy for SAW HIM GOOD.

    Ondrej Palat was eligible for the draft in 2009. There are no stats available on ihdb for where he played that season. But in his post draft season he only produced 40 points in 59 games in the Q.

    Alexander Killorn posted 32 points in 25 games in his draft year. In US high school……… Would have been a guy to avoid by the math.

    Tyler Johnson (undrafted I know) but picked up by Tampa only scored 35 points in 69 games in the WHL in his draft year.

    That’s 3 players in Tampa’s top six forwards that were NOT PPG junior players in their draft years.

    We know players that go on to be top 6 in the NHL despite not posting PPG in their junior draft season aren’t common, but your claim that you can count them all on two hands is not accurate.

    Off the top of my head I can think of Ryan Johansen, Wheeler, Lucic, Simmonds, Glencross. I’m sure there are a lot more.

    I find it kind of funny that some of the biggest proponents of advanced stats find ways to look at the underlying numbers at the NHL level to find value in guys like Horcoff and Pisani while scoffing at the counting numbers, then turn around and boast going by the counting numbers as an improved method of scouting.

    Its pretty hypocritical. If you believe in the underlying numbers at the NHL level, then one should be admitting that scouting is shrouded in darkness and won’t improve until we have the underlying numbers for the teens.

    The math actually agrees with picking all three. They all have something in common when producing these results. One guess. They are all good bets based on math. And they are all great examples how you should be thinking when picking later in the draft. Based on their numbers I’d argue that all three were good picks already in their first draft eligible year. So even Tampa was late to the party.

  156. Rip Fan Winkle "OilOnslaught" says:

    SwedishPoster: The math actually agrees with picking all three. They all have something in common when producing these results. One guess. They are all good bets based on math. And they are all great examples how you should be thinking when picking later in the draft. Based on their numbers I’d argue that all three were good picks already in their first draft eligible year. So even Tampa was late to the party.

    What is it?

  157. SwedishPoster says:

    Rip Fan Winkle “OilOnslaught”: What is it?

    Rookies out of either far weaker NA leagues or europe. Palat was above PPG in Czech U20 his draft year .

  158. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    Follow

    Mark Edwards
    ‏@MarkEdwardsHP
    If you saw my Eichel long jump tweet earlier, Blackwood jumped off the mat. #NHLdraftcombine

    Athleticism. It’s about 30% of goaltending, unless you don’t have it – then it’s 100%.

  159. wheatnoil says:

    Adam Musil, whose brother David was a '11 draft pick of the #Oilers & whose father Frank (ex player/now scout), did not interview with EDM.— Joanne Ireland (@jirelandEJ) June 6, 2015

    Is this a tell? How often do teams draft players who were at the combine but they didn’t interview? Maybe they’ve talked to him enough that they spend their limited time with other prospects?

    Not that I’m pushing for or against Adam Musil… just curious.

  160. BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1) says:

    wheatnoil,

    Didn’t one of Chelli or Green, in a recent interview, talk about meeting with as many prospects as they could?

  161. Adam Wu says:

    OilClog:

    Does 16 and 33 land you Schneider, Devils will unload him for a chance to grab Matthews.

    Considering how Vancouver refused to trade him to Edmonton, even for an enormous overpay, and then basically gifted him to New Jersey for much less, it would be absolutely hilarious if the Oilers ended up getting him now, from New Jersey, for anything substantially less than what Vancouver originally demanded back then….

  162. rickithebear says:

    Lucic played 3rd line limited TOI with VCR
    that is a skill target based on production of line mates.
    Krouse is that player.

    Lucic 18 year season were he got a reg shift suggested 15 EVG 12 EVA a season.
    I projected his injured 50 gm season and 48 gm lockout season to 80gm
    In 8 seasons he has averaged 16 EVG /season.

    The none regular shift draftees need EVTOI and line mates for projection.

    Were a player like this is going to see a large jump in Even results is the assists with higher calbre tea mates.
    25 EVA over 8 seasons rather than 12.

  163. Adam Wu says:

    re Math vs Eye

    One thing to remember is there is a lot of potential stuff out there that can fit under “math”, and the math itself is constantly evolving.

    Another thing to remember is that “eye”, “gut”, “hunch”, “intuition” and all that is really ALSO math, math that is being subconsciously crunched by the neurons in the observer’s brain, with the inputs being that observer’s personal experience. The individual observer may trump existing math because he or she has, through experience, integrated subconsciously important aspects that the existing math has not yet been developed to assess properly. But the individual observer is also vulnerable to individual biases.

    And much of that “not yet accounted for by current maths” should be expected to be covered eventually by maths developed in the future.

    The game of hockey is NOT 33% random chance and goalies are NOT voodoo. It’s just that 33% or so of the game is as yet unknown and unmeasured, and much of goalie assessment falls within that third.

    No one but the most dogmatic of idiots would insist on using just one of math or eye and not the other. Every reasonable person can agree that the best course is to use both.

    The issue is what to do when they contradict each other. In the idea circumstance they should converge on each other, as there is only one reality which they are both intended as models to reflect. A contradiction is prima facie evidence that one or the other, or both, is not complete. So who gets the veto? The final vote?

    Giving existing math the veto in every case would get you to average/above-average, based on existing evidence. But to get to championship level, what you need to do is develop your own metrics to assess that gap that neither existing math or eye has been successful in, and it is that metric that gets the veto. This metric can be either math based or eye based, depending on what works for you. But the advantage of it being math based is that it is not dependent on the genius of any one individual, and thus can be sustained through regimes and generations, whereas a process dependent on the intuition or “gut feeling” of one smart executive will be lost if that particular executive gets run over by a bus or whatever.

    Either way, though, that metric is secret. To outside observers it will look like eye/gut/voodoo/luck, because whatever is in the nuts and bolts of what you’re doing, you’re not telling your opposition about it!

  164. ChiliChunk says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1):
    wheatnoil,

    Didn’t one of Chelli or Green, in a recent interview, talk about meeting with as many prospects as they could?

    http://oilers.nhl.com/club/blogpost.htm?id=40128

    The Oilers interviewed 88 prospects this week, according to Green.

  165. Woodguy says:

    Bank Shot,

    Its pretty hypocritical. If you believe in the underlying numbers at the NHL level, then one should be admitting that scouting is shrouded in darkness and won’t improve until we have the underlying numbers for the teens.

    What’s hypocritical?

    My point is that pts/gm is a far better indicator of future NHL success than where the player is ranked by scouts.

    What is hypocritical?

  166. rickithebear says:

    wheatnoil:
    Looking again at some of the birth-dates, I remain blown away that Werenski STILL isn’t 18. 6’2″, 214 lbs, July ’97. We talk about how Hanifin really turned up his offense at the mid-point of the season around his 18th birthday. Werenski isn’t even there yet. He’ll have finished his 4 years of NCAA before he turns 21!

    I don’t think he falls to #16 unless the GMs start going crazy, but if he starts slipping out of the top 10, it’d be awfully fun to trade up for him.

    Remember his Coach said he was 18 yr old trouba and J. johnson; with18 year old komisareks physical game. at 17.

    The u18 USA coach said hanifin and him are equal def D.

    Age NHLE
    Werenski .68 Age NHLE
    14 EVG 18 EVA EVEN NHLE
    7PPG 18 PPA PP NHLE
    Trouba with karlsson potential offence.

    Hanafin .58
    7 EVG 17 EVA Even NHLE
    2 PPG 18 PPA PP NHLE

  167. Jaxon says:

    wheatnoil,

    Maybe, maybe not. If your a scout in the organization, and your kid is a prospect of interest, you can probably forego the interview. Or, do it on your own time the next time your son is in town to visit, rather than making an already busy week busier. Hard to say.

  168. Snowman says:

    BOLD OVER (5-14-6-1),

    Green said they met with 88 kids over the past little while. Probably not all at the combine obviously but I think they’re doing their diligence.

  169. Richard S.S. says:

    Would #57, Marincin, Yakupov and a budding Center not named Draisaitl obtain the #3 Pick?

  170. Traktor says:

    Woodguy:
    Bank Shot,

    Its pretty hypocritical. If you believe in the underlying numbers at the NHL level, then one should be admitting that scouting is shrouded in darkness and won’t improve until we have the underlying numbers for the teens.

    What’s hypocritical?

    My point is that pts/gm is a far better indicator of future NHL success than where the player is ranked by scouts.

    What is hypocritical?

    I only skimmed the thread and I’m not going to name names but a lot of people used to say Shawn Horcoff was better than Ryan Getzlaf because there is a lot more to the game than just points!1!!

    If you’re a math guy then great but some of the scouts probably are witnessing some of the “other things”.

    For instance…Math is saying stay the hell away from Kyle Platzer. The scouts on the other hand are saying there’s the kid in London stuck way down the depth chart but whenever he gets some ice-time he is making plays all over the ice.

    None of us watched Lawson Crouse in Kingston so I think it says a lot about someone when their opinions are set in stone. 29 goals in 56 games is pretty decent though.

    The thing that I personally don’t like about the math crowd is they spend 99.99 of the time trying to prove that it’s right. Its not about learning, growing, improving stats ect…at least not for the ones that are the most vocal… its only about being on one side of the sand and digging in.

    If someone really wanted to move stats in the right direction they’d spend just as much time trying to prove why it doesn’t work.

  171. Bad Seed says:

    Richard S.S.,

    Which budding centre? CMD or Nuge?

  172. Richard S.S. says:

    Bad Seed,

    Someone not yet a mainstay Center, from the minors would be recommended.

  173. Pouzar says:

    Lowetide: Nope. I had Eberle No. 16, thrilled when they took him

    https://lowetide.ca/2008/06/20/draft-week-post-8-top-30/

    Then why were you on WPG radio trading him for 1 year of Buff?
    *ducks*

  174. v4ance says:

    Looking at the discussion on goalies, does someone have the pre-draft rankings of goalies over the past decade or two?

    Who were the top three ranked goalies prior to the draft(s) and who were the most successful post-draft?

    I wanna see if we can shed some light on this “goalies are voodoo” drafting metric 🙂

  175. Магия 10 says:

    v4ance: Looking at the discussion on goalies, does someone have the pre-draft rankings of goalies over the past decade or two?

    Here’s one place to start

    https://bluebulletreport.wordpress.com/2015/06/04/rethinking-how-to-draft-goalies/

  176. Woodguy says:

    Traktor: I only skimmed the thread and I’m not going to name names but a lot of people used to say Shawn Horcoff was better than Ryan Getzlaf because there is a lot more to the game than just points!1!!

    If you’re a math guy then great but some of the scouts probably are witnessing some of the “other things”.

    For instance…Math is saying stay the hell away from Kyle Platzer. The scouts on the other hand are saying there’s the kid in London stuck way down the depth chart but whenever he gets some ice-time he is making plays all over the ice.

    None of us watched Lawson Crouse in Kingston so I think it says a lot about someone when their opinions are set in stone. 29 goals in 56 games is pretty decent though.

    The thing that I personally don’t like about the math crowd is they spend 99.99 of the time trying to prove that it’s right. Its not about learning, growing, improving stats ect…at least not for the ones that are the most vocal… its only about being on one side of the sand and digging in.

    If someone really wanted to move stats in the right direction they’d spend just as much time trying to prove why it doesn’t work.

    The issue at hand isn’t “Can Platzer be a good NHLer?”

    The issue at hand is “Can you take a guy top 10 when he didn’t score 1pt/gm in his draft year in draft deep in players who scored over 1pt/gm”

    No one said their opinion is set in stone.

    I also said in the thread:

    To be clear most smart people say you need both math and eyes and use each to inform the other, but this truth will always remain:
    “If a player can’t score in the CHL, they won’t score in the NHL”

    Also to be clear, this started when Rondo, out of nowhere, started bashing the use of math in rating prospects.

    I was on the defensive, not the offensive.

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