NHLE’S AND WHAT THEY TELL US ABOUT NEXT SEASON

by Lowetide

We can talk ourselves into circles about expectations—reasonable or otherwise—for next season, but the truth is right there in the numbers. The Edmonton Oilers are going to have a helluva time keeping Leon and Darnell on the farm, and Connor, well, Connor goes right to the front of the line. How do we know? NHLE’s tell us so.

NHLE’S

  1. Connor McDavid 82GP, 23-40-63
  2. Leon Draisaitl 82GP, 15-26-41
  3. Darnell Nurse 82GP, 7-16-23

McDavid’s rookie season will be one to remember, I cannot wait one more instant to see it. Leon isn’t better than McDavid or the Nuge, but he should have zero problem beating out Matt Fraser, Iiro Pakarinen and the others who will by vying for that 3L role on the team.

  • Hall—McDavid—Yakupov
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle
  • Draisaitl—Lander—Purcell
  • Hendricks—Gordon—Klinkhammer
  • Klefbom—Schultz
  • Marincin—Fayne
  • Nurse—Nikitin/Ference

We’ll see. Todd McLellan is going to see Darnell Nurse in training camp, march into Chiarelli’s office and lobby hard to keep him. I believe that, today. If things change in terms of procurement, it could be a different story by September. Suspect it’s going to be an interesting conversation.

AHL VETERANS LOOKING FOR AN OPPORTUNITY

  1. R Andrew Miller 82GP, 15-20-35
  2. D Brad Hunt 82GP, 11-19-30
  3. D Brandon Davidson 82GP, 3-4-7

This is an important area for the Oilers. Miller and Hunt can play with skill and are very inexpensive. As time passes and the dollars pile up for the McDavid cluster, men like this will become very valuable. Davidson is a useful depth player who can step in as needed—he looked solid in his NHL time and may end up as this generation’s Scott Ferguson.

 

PROSPECTS PUSHING

  1. L Anton Slepyshev 82GP, 17-11-28
  2. R Iiro Pakarinen 82GP, 16-10-26
  3. C Bogdan Yakimov 82GP, 10-13-23
  4. D Jordan Oesterle 82GP, 5-9-14

If I’m picking four Condors who may see extended NHL time in 2015-16 (aside from Leon and Darnell), this is the group. Slepyshev will have a shot at the 3L job I’ve given Draisaitl, and Pakarinen’s grit plus Yakimov’s size are going to get the attention of McLellan and Chiarelli. There’s a chance McLellan walks into Chiarelli’s office on behalf of Nurse AND Yakimov. Oesterle is a puck-moving defender who may end up with an NHL career. There are opportunities knocking, especially this season if Chiarelli can’t address the holes with proven talent.

PROSPECTS WHO NEED TIME

 

  1. D Joey Laleggia 82GP, 14-23-37
  2. C-R Kyle Platzer 82GP, 12-17-29
  3. C-R Greg Chase 82GP, 8-16-24
  4. L Josh Winquist 82GP, 8-11-19 (not signed)
  5. L Kale Kessy 82GP, 8-8-16
  6. D Ben Betker 82GP, 2-10-12
  7. D Dillon Simpson 82GP, 2-9-11
  8. D David Musil 82GP, 1-7-8

This is the group I’ll be cheering like hell for, the Larry Mavety’s. Now, there’s talent here but Mavety had talent too and never did play an NHL game. I’m going to say only Winquist (who I like and they should sign) and Kessy (who had a helluva TC) are true long shots to play in an NHL game (Musil has already been there). Laleggia’s numbers are smoking, and both Platzer/Chase have a story to tell. I’ve listed the three blue at the end because, despite progress this season, they do in fact need time.

PROSPECTS WHO NEED ANOTHER GEAR

  1. C Jujhar Khaira 82GP, 4-5-9
  2. L Mitch Moroz 82GP, 3-3-6
  3. C Travis Ewanyk 82GP, 2-3-5

 

The Oilers will tell you that Khaira has size and toughness and that’s true but he has to hit more than he did this past season. Ewanyk isn’t going to make the grade I’m afraid, and Moroz didn’t get enough at-bats to draw any other conclusion. Extreme long shots, these.

 SUSPECTS

  1. D Martin Gernat 82GP, 1-7-8

I don’t know what the hell happened. Saw him in Edmonton (and I know that’s junior hockey) and he seemed to be progressing well. I spoke to a scout about him a few years back and he told me the offense wouldn’t come but that he liked his size and mobility. Oilers have soured on him, that’s for sure. I remain uncertain if Gernat is the problem or the Oilers are the issue. Either way, Gernat’s in trouble.

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Jaxon

Speaking of NHLEs, the Oilers should be checking out this NCAA right handed D who was an Islanders draft pick and will become a UFA on July 1st. His NHLE this season is 34 pts. Right handed. Not big, but not small either. 6’0″, 192 lbs.

http://www.sbncollegehockey.com/2015/6/1/8700149/notre-dames-robbie-russo-to-become-nhl-free-agent

Richard S.S.

Maybe.

TheGreatMutato

Dashingsilverfox:

Are MacKinnon and McDavid the same player?

Crosby NHLE: 62 pts
McDavid NHLE: 63 pts

Are Crosby and McDavid the same player?

😉

Beware the man of one statistic! Even if he is just just goofing off.

Ca$h-McMoney!

NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
Lost in this, that’s a nice number for Andrew Miller.

Agreed. I was skeptical at first, since he seemed to score at about half the rate of Arcobello, but I see his value at the NHL level now. Upside on Miller is about Cogliano or equivalent, if he can keep trending in the right direction. Also nice to have a player on board with speed to burn.

PhrankLee

G Money: And the remainder of the discussion involving DSF, though it brought forth many of DSFs typical trolling elements (red herrings, moving goalposts, reversals of stance, reductio ad “wanna bet”), it was probably a 2 or 3/10 as far as the sophistry level of typical DSF threads. I quite enjoyed (gently) goading him to back up his nonsense, to be honest. BTW, a “Woodguy” doesn’t refer to a specific bet but rather the standard wager between DSF and WG in their various bets, which is a bottle of Talisker or equivalent.

Yeah, you were a real hero in this thread.

The last bet was a bottle and DSF got WG to give the SMSE (singlemaltscotchequiv) to the blog in the form of electronic greenbacks.

I am not clever but remember most things I hear or read.

Prefacing an argument with a lie (NM pegged as the next Crosby and NM totaled what CMD NHLE is today.. Same player?) is bait. Gently or not you fed the troll. In other words, in my humble opinion, you shit the thread. I’m certainly not in need of calming down. I do enjoy your work.

Lost in this, that’s a nice number for Andrew Miller.

Yeti

edwards_daddy: Question is DSF, will MacKinnon ever be as good as Nuge?

We should probably wait until RNH finally hits 50 a point season before we start that discussion.

edwards_daddy

Dashingsilverfox:
Before the 2013 draft, Nathan MacKinnon was being pegged as the “next Crosby”.

MacKinnon scored 24G and 63P in his rookie season which is pretty much exactly what the NHLE is for Connor McDavid.

Are MacKinnon and McDavid the same player?

Considering that Colorado also features Matt Duchene, Ryan O’Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog at forward and Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie on D while lacking defensive depth and reliable goaltending, aren’t the Oilers, as currently constructed, Colorado Lite?

18yo RNH 0.84 ppg, 18yo MacKinnon 0.77ppg
19yo RNH 0.60ppg, 19yo MacKinnon 0.59ppg

Question is DSF, will MacKinnon ever be as good as Nuge?

Ca$h-McMoney!

NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
Ca$h-McMoney!,

Hmm.

Roy? It’s going to be more than $1M. Maybe it’s $1.25M, more likely $1.5M, was conservative and used $2M. If it’s less, great. No need to get worked up.

Williams? His production has been nothing to write home about the past couple of years? He’s an older, right-handed Benoit Pouliot with playoff cred. The playoff cred gives him $0.5M more than Pouliot. He may get another year, for sure. Ideally 3 years would work, but you’re right it’s most likely 4 x $4.5M~$5M. He’s not worth $5M even though he may get it. I just wonder if there are that many teams able to pay him that for ~40 points.

Martin I’m not sure. He may get $5.5M. 5 years would be scary, agreed. Would walk away from that as well.

Was just proposing alternatives to AsiaOil’s post where Yak gets traded and replaced with Doan.I love Larsson, but think it costs Draisaitl to get him. Yak doesn’t have Larsson’s value. Time to trade for Larsson was last year (knocked my head against the wall enough times saying that back then).

I realize my thoughts and ideas are unlikely to come to fruition.

Don’t get me wrong, I like your alternatives, it’s just the Roy @ $2million thing. Please don’t interpret that as anger directed at you, rather it’s frustration directed at Oilers management that have been doing just this sort of thing for years (with Ryan Jones and Cam Barker being two good recent examples).

Look at it this way: before last year Roy signed a $1million contract following a season where he scored 37 points in 75 games. During last season he failed to establish himself on a roster with mediocre scoring forward options (better than years previous for sure but the driver in Nashville continues to be D and G).

So then he produces at pretty much exactly the same rate, and was about as close as you can get to being cut loose from the league (which is usually a permanent thing)…. and we’re going to double his salary?

I don’t see any other team offering him more than the base level deal, like the one he got from Nashville or Mason Raymond got from Toronto. History suggests this to be true (it happened last year). We can offer him the same money, but we can also give him a role and line-mate that suits his skills and improves his chances of staying in the league one more year.

Overpaying these guys is just such a classic Oilers move, and it’s something we need to stop doing. We’ve already got $6million locked up in our 4th line, we need to fill some spots with guys who play passably well for cheap. In my book this is as important a philosophical change as anything else the Oilers management can make over the next 12 months. It’s the only way we’ll be able to hang on to our cluster when the time comes.

Yeti

G Money: I could only wish that multiple regression, or even SVMs, were “my” algorithm.

Don’t be so damned modest.

Yeti

I always liked Steve… now he’s boss of the bulldogs.
“Steve Staios is leaving the Toronto Maple Leafs organization to take over as president of the Ontario Hockey League’s Hamilton Bulldogs”.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/hockey/staios-leaves-maple-leafs-to-become-president-of-ohls-bulldogs/article24822640/

Ca$h-McMoney!,

Hmm.

Roy? It’s going to be more than $1M. Maybe it’s $1.25M, more likely $1.5M, was conservative and used $2M. If it’s less, great. No need to get worked up.

Williams? His production has been nothing to write home about the past couple of years? He’s an older, right-handed Benoit Pouliot with playoff cred. The playoff cred gives him $0.5M more than Pouliot. He may get another year, for sure. Ideally 3 years would work, but you’re right it’s most likely 4 x $4.5M~$5M. He’s not worth $5M even though he may get it. I just wonder if there are that many teams able to pay him that for ~40 points.

Martin I’m not sure. He may get $5.5M. 5 years would be scary, agreed. Would walk away from that as well.

Was just proposing alternatives to AsiaOil’s post where Yak gets traded and replaced with Doan. I love Larsson, but think it costs Draisaitl to get him. Yak doesn’t have Larsson’s value. Time to trade for Larsson was last year (knocked my head against the wall enough times saying that back then).

I realize my thoughts and ideas are unlikely to come to fruition.

G Money

PhrankLee,

Geez, c’mon Phrank, calm down my good man.

I’m the first guy to ignore or drop out of a thread where DSF’s nonsense takes too deep a hold.

Although couched in his typical trolling fashion, in this particular case, DSF actually asked a legitimate question to kick off the “discussion”, which is to counterpoint McDavid’s NHLE being the same as what MacKinnon (who is distinctly nowhere close to McDavid’s level) put up last year. (Note that that also relates directly to LT’s original thread post, which kicked off with several NHLEs).

It has the effect, intended or not, of pointing out that NHLE is quite flawed when it comes to elite players. I’m sure DSF thought he was bringing up some deep and profound insight in doing so, which is why I took some pains in my very first response to point out that this flaw is a. well understood, and b. has been studied in depth, by myself and others.

The fact that NHLE is flawed for elite players may be recognized by those who’ve worked with it, but I guarantee you that is not understood by many, which is why it is still a worthwhile point to raise.

And the remainder of the discussion involving DSF, though it brought forth many of DSFs typical trolling elements (red herrings, moving goalposts, reversals of stance, reductio ad “wanna bet”), it was probably a 2 or 3/10 as far as the sophistry level of typical DSF threads. I quite enjoyed (gently) goading him to back up his nonsense, to be honest. BTW, a “Woodguy” doesn’t refer to a specific bet but rather the standard wager between DSF and WG in their various bets, which is a bottle of Talisker or equivalent.

leadfarmer

Are we really going back to the same conversations over and over again? Just letting a guy throw mud at a wall and seeing what sticks. A guy making a good point once in a while doesn’t make up for all of the white noise in between. And thats what DSF is, white noise.

Ca$h-McMoney!

NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
AsiaOil,

Here’s an alternate suggestion.

Oilers trade #33 to New York for Talbot.

Oilers trade #21 + a good prospect to San Jose for Justin Braun (if he is available as rumoured).

Oilers trade Purcell with $1M in salary retained to Arizona to help them reach the cap floor for a 5th rounder. Oilers can use the $3.5M in cap space.

Oilers sign Justin Williams ($4.5M x 3).

Oilers sign Paul Martin ($5M x 3) assuming the first choice,Sekera, re-signs with LA.

Oilers re-sign Derek Roy ($2M x 1).

I like your suggestions, but I think your free agent signings are unrealistic.

The dollars on Martin are reasonable if a little low, but within the realm of possibility. I doubt he’ll be looking for 3 years though (which I would acknowledge is ideal). I suspect whoever signs him does so for 5 years or more.

Justin Williams likely commands more money and term than that too.

And then Roy at $2million. Why? This is exactly the type of thing the Oilers have been doing FOREVER (Ryan Jones, Cam Barker, etc.). This guy has nowhere else to go, he’s got one foot out of the door of the league. We are giving him an opportunity to play easy minutes grooming a 1st overall. He will take $1million, maybe 1.25.

We need to start filling holes in the lineup with guys making in or around $1million. That’s the only way we can afford to pay the higher end talent and still make it under the cap. Plus, paying $1million means burying that player in the minors has virtually no impact on the cap.

AsiaOil,

Here’s an alternate suggestion.

OIlers/Chiarelli continue to play up their interest in Samsonov (Tim Murray has been quoted of late on the radio as being interested in drafting an elite goalie prospect) and when it comes time to draft at #16, they trade down as follows: #16, #57 for #21, #31 from Buffalo. Buffalo selects Samsonov.

Oilers trade #33 to New York for Talbot.

Oilers trade #21 + a good prospect to San Jose for Justin Braun (if he is available as rumoured).

Oilers trade Purcell with $1M in salary retained to Arizona to help them reach the cap floor for a 5th rounder. Oilers can use the $3.5M in cap space.

Oilers sign Justin Williams ($4.5M x 3).

Oilers sign Paul Martin ($5M x 3) assuming the first choice,Sekera, re-signs with LA.

Oilers re-sign Derek Roy ($2M x 1).

Oilers draft Sprong/Blackwood/White/whoever is available that is BPA at #31.

Oilers try to move one of Nikitin or Ference.

No need to trade Yakupov (New Jersey wouldn’t trade Larsson for him anyway, in my opinion. I believe Larsson’s value is greater than Yak’s) and you still get a veteran RW. I actually don’t want to give up on Schultz before we see him play with a bonafide vet (no, not Ference).

Hall-McDavid-Williams
Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
Lander-Roy-Yakupov
Hendricks-Gordon-Klinkhammer

Klefbom-Braun
Martin-Schultz
Marincin-Fayne
One of Ference/Nikitin

Talbot
Scrivens

PhrankLee

Dashingsilverfox: G Money: I generally only like to bet against the Flames.
But …
What would be your proposed basis for an opposing line?
Your algorithm suggested a 75 point season so we could go over/under on that.
I’m in for a “Woodguy”

Seriously guys?

G is an adult and feeding the troll. What is wrong with you guys?

DSF rides the coattails of a bet he made before last season. A Woodguy?

It’ pathetic. Taking credit for a blip on PDO radar. And having the gall to name it smacks of arrogance and spite.

I will never understand anyone taking such obvious bait as:

“Are MacKinnon and McDavid the same player?”

Are you guys fucking serious?

Nice post about the depth portion of the 50 man list, LT. Too bad nobody responded to it. But hey, at least your essential foil is here moderating the asylum. With arguments and everything!

Shit thread when that guy is on the sauce.

AsiaOil

LT – I like your lineup and that 3rd line with Lander Drai and Purcell actually works. The RNH line and 4th lines are fine as well. But CMD needs a vet right wing. As much as I like Yak it’s time to make a choice between him and Eberle – and obviously the choice needs to be the right one. One of those guys needs to go for a very good dman as he can be replaced with a bigger vet RW and then the CMD-Hall line pans out like a charm.

My dream scenario – trade Yak for Larsson and Shultz for Doan. NJD needs the winger and ARZ has nothing on defense past OEL. Shultz would replace Yandle (and stop tormenting us) and Doan could mentor McDavid for a year. Much better size and 2 LW can also play center – depth – what a concept:

Poo RNH Eberle
Hall CMD Doan
Drai Lander Purcell
Hendricks Gordon Klink/Pitlik

Add a UFA dman and goalie and we are set……..

GCW_69

” Hunt can play with skill”

I object to this assertion. An NHL defender still needs to be able to defend, and as far as I can see there is zero evidence of this at the NHL level. Even at the AHL level he is described as a “chaos defender”.

Captain Smarmy

Dashingsilverfox: Oh, I think McDavid is likely better than MacKinnon but the question is by how much.

The thing is, you have no faith in your algorithm.

70 points splits the difference.

I’m in for the under.

Hell, Jiri Hudler scored 76.

Surely, McDavid can best that.

You’re such a try hard.

stush18

Ryan: Excluding possible face punchers, which other team in the NHL would call up a 4rth liner from their AHL affiliate if they ran into injuries at centre?

Acton has absolutely zero offense. But as a penalty killer and a faceoff man, he had value. That’s the point I’m trying to make.

N64

G Money:
Romulus Apotheosis,

Hmmmm … while I don’t typically give our vulpine friend much credit for his numeric prowess, I’m pretty sure in this case he does understand.I suspect he’s indulging in his usual trolling, and perhaps hoping to garner a loaded bet as a side project.

The best part is when he gets someone to take a line on the other side of the rink from his originsl point and flashes any winnings as proof he’s was right all along.

I was catching up with this thread and seeing where he was going. Good read.

PaperKurtRussell

ADVICE BREAK: never argue with a true idiot, as he will drag you down to his level and beat you with experience.

Thanks for ruining my bedtime reading gents!

N64

Dashingsilverfox: Are MacKinnon and McDavid the same player?

Hi DSF!

Richard S.S.

I saw Gretsky and Crosby from day one and saw legends in the making. Anyone not named Connor McDavid will not come close. IMO only HE might be that good.

I think they must draft the highest calibre multi-tool players they can find, but especially the goalies. Samsonov, Blackwood and Vlader fit that requirement. Maybe they get really lucky and get a keeper, or even better – another Brodeur or Price. If not, try, try, try, try, again until they get it continually right.

It’s unlikely anything happens until the Series is over, maybe filling out staffs will be the most accomplished until then.

G Money

Romulus Apotheosis,

Hmmmm … while I don’t typically give our vulpine friend much credit for his numeric prowess, I’m pretty sure in this case he does understand. I suspect he’s indulging in his usual trolling, and perhaps hoping to garner a loaded bet as a side project.

frjohnk

Romulus Apotheosis:
Couple of key points for you to mull:

Our friend doesn’t understand what NHLE are or what information they offer. Full stop.

Dashingsilverfox is voodoo.

FTFY

Romulus Apotheosis

Couple of key points for you to mull:

Our friend doesn’t understand what NHLE are or what information they offer. Full stop.

Rookie seasons are voodoo.

Mr DeBakey

supernova: On that same note that’s why I am really high on Jansen Harkins.
He scouting report screams 2C at Ceiling, & 4C bottom end.
Draft Harkins!

Hear him!
Hear him!

G Money

Dashingsilverfox: The thing is, you have no faith in your algorithm.

I could only wish that multiple regression, or even SVMs, were “my” algorithm.

G Money

Dashingsilverfox: Oh, I think McDavid is likely better than MacKinnon but the question is by how much.

The thing is, you have no faith in your algorithm.

70 points splits the difference.

I’m in for the under.

Hell, Jiri Hudler scored 76.

Surely, McDavid can best that.

Again – nice try. “Faith” has nothing to do with it. The numbers are the numbers.

But it’s not up to me to defend those numbers, it’s up to you to defend yours. If McDavid scores 70 points, it will be the best rookie season since Patrick Kanes, and before that, Sidney Crosbys. That’s still a win for any NHLE+ model, not for you.

And what do the results of a 31 y.o. 10 year veteran have to do with McDavid’s rookie year? No more than Hudler’s 42 points in his first full season in the league, in his fourth year, have. You’re trying to drag a red herring past a moving goalpost. Again – nice try.

Now, I have no doubt that McDavid will blow Hudler’s numbers away in every comparable year that they will ever play, and 76 pts will almost certainly be a career best for Hudler while being a number in the distant rearview for McDavid probably by the time he’s a sophomore. But that has no bearing on next year, none at all.

64 points is the over/under on your MacKinnon comparable. One “Woodguy”. C’mon Foxy, back up your words.

Dashingsilverfox

Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker):
Dashingsilverfox,

Nathan MacKinnon actual 82gp, 24-39-63 .768 points-per-game
Nathan MacKinnon NHLE 82gp, 17-22-39 .476 points-per-game

Borrowed that from an old LT piece at ON. Your logic, McDavid should score 101 pts. I know you are just being a dick, but just know I won’t cry at your funeral.

So, you’re saying that NHLE is fatally flawed?

I agree.

Dashingsilverfox

NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
Dashingsilverfox,

Sure, I think you’re overrating Daley, though. He is not a good defenseman, despite what the goals totals say (he had a career high 11% Shooting percentage vs. his norm of ~7%). If you talk to Dallas fans, they will tell you as much. They’d love an upgrade. He’s more like their Nikitin (big shot on the PP), except healthier and cheaper. He’s an OK bottom pairing guy if sheltered, but not much more.

No argument from me.

Dallas needs a solid veteran D to help out with their “Nordic Wonders”.

Wouldn’t be at all surprised if Phaneuf is a Star next season.

Dallas has $14M in free cap space.

Gayfish

Dashingsilverfox,

Nathan MacKinnon actual 82gp, 24-39-63 .768 points-per-game
Nathan MacKinnon NHLE 82gp, 17-22-39 .476 points-per-game

Borrowed that from an old LT piece at ON. Your logic, McDavid should score 101 pts. I know you are just being a dick, but just know I won’t cry at your funeral.

Dashingsilverfox

G Money: LOL, trying to live up to your foxy name, eh?

Basically, you’re trying to bet a number that, even if the model worked perfectly (say, McDavid scores 72 points), you win.

Nice try!

Tell you what – since your “model” is “McDavid = MacKinnon”, how about the over/under on MacKinnon+1?

Oh, I think McDavid is likely better than MacKinnon but the question is by how much.

The thing is, you have no faith in your algorithm.

70 points splits the difference.

I’m in for the under.

Hell, Jiri Hudler scored 76.

Surely, McDavid can best that.

LadiesloveSmid

NYCOIL “Taking Photos”:
G Money,

Some of us have been talking about Marc Staal and trading assets for him. Reality isput tape over their name bars and Petry was a better defender this year than Staal by pretty much every aspect you want to measure. I asked before, but would a 2nd and a 4th fetch Staal? No chance. Just horrible asset management by MacT.

and if Edmonton goes out and by some luck inks Sekera to 6×6, they’re right back where they were at the 50 game mark of this season–with a bottom 5 defence

Gayfish

godot10,

Little out of nowhere, but yeah eff that guy.

G Money

This is my other favourite from that thread, though I can no longer remember the process leading to its creation:

http://i.imgur.com/uO7ytCA.png

G Money

NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

Indeed. Sometime in the depths of despair last season (which for Oiler fans starts in October), I made up some gag t shirt ideas. How’s this one from October 14th?

http://i.imgur.com/C4tq46d.png

G Money,

Some of us have been talking about Marc Staal and trading assets for him. Reality is put tape over their name bars and Petry was a better defender this year than Staal by pretty much every aspect you want to measure. I asked before, but would a 2nd and a 4th fetch Staal? No chance. Just horrible asset management by MacT.

G Money

NYCOIL “Taking Photos”,

Hey, get in line mister!!!

G Money

Not sure I’d point to very much on the Dallas D as being much good.

They gave up 29.9 SA/G. The Oilers gave up 30 SA/G.

The difference between the GA/G of 3.13 vs 3.37 was pretty much entirely goaltending.

The ages of the defensive rosters are very similar, excepting that Ference brings the Oilers way up (in a bad way).

These were two terrible defensive teams.

And Dallas was coached by defensive mastermind Lindy Ruff!

The big issue for the Oilers is they lost their most capable defenseman in Jeff Petry.

Without some big adds, neither team has much to look forward to in the defensive department next year, other than getting lit up like a Xmas tree.

Aitch

Dashingsilverfox,

With the roster as constructed today, yes.

But we know that’s going to change, at least in net. But by how much the D & G improves will determine a lot of McDavid’s success (and maybe vice versa.) The goaltending has to improve for McDavid to reach his potential. He simply won’t do it, if the Oilers are struggling to keep pucks out of their own net, unless we are truly going to see a rebirth of run and gun and Wild West shoutouts every other game. On the flip side, anything can happen. That’s the beauty of sports. That Colorado team looked good based on ridiculously out of balance shooting and save percentages. Then Calgary surprises everyone with their ridiculous ability to come from behind. Perhaps this year Edmonton does it based on a ridiculous power play efficiency when RNH returns to Wizard level and McDavid takes over the other PP group and abuses the second pairing. (Did I mention I’m an optimist?)

Ryan

stush18: I think guys like that are good short term solutions. Gordon goes on injured reserve for 3 weeks, actin is the guy who gets the call up and fills as much of those shoes as possible. And if he sticks around and makes a case and starts delivering offense then that’s a bonus.

You don’t call up drai to take his minutes. Although the oilers called up lander and stuck him in the fourth line role, so I don’t know why I’m bothering defending them.

Excluding possible face punchers, which other team in the NHL would call up a 4rth liner from their AHL affiliate if they ran into injuries at centre?

Id’ take NM + 1 bet too if that’s where the line will be (Take McDavid on the over that is).

That said, I think DSF has a point about Colorado and Edmonton: nice forwards, spotty D. Oilers add a nice G to the lineup and they “could” catch lightning in a bottle a la Colorado last season, but they still have holes on D. The forest, in this case (his point about the parallels in team), is being lost by the Mackinnon/McDavid argument, which doesn’t make a whole lot of sense. Mackinnon is an excellent young player; McDavid has every chance to be a franchise player right off the get-go.

Dashingsilverfox,

Sure, I think you’re overrating Daley, though. He is not a good defenseman, despite what the goals totals say (he had a career high 11% Shooting percentage vs. his norm of ~7%). If you talk to Dallas fans, they will tell you as much. They’d love an upgrade. He’s more like their Nikitin (big shot on the PP), except healthier and cheaper. He’s an OK bottom pairing guy if sheltered, but not much more.

G Money

Dashingsilverfox: Your algorithm suggested a 75 point season so we could go over/under on that.

I’m in for a “Woodguy”

LOL, trying to live up to your foxy name, eh?

Basically, you’re trying to bet a number that, even if the model worked perfectly (say, McDavid scores 72 points), you win.

Nice try!

Tell you what – since your “model” is “McDavid = MacKinnon”, how about the over/under on MacKinnon+1?

Slapshot

I don’t even think you could believe this.

Dashingsilverfox:
Before the 2013 draft, Nathan MacKinnon was being pegged as the “next Crosby”.

MacKinnon scored 24G and 63P in his rookie season which is pretty much exactly what the NHLE is for Connor McDavid.

Are MacKinnon and McDavid the same player?

Considering that Colorado also features Matt Duchene, Ryan O’Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog at forward and Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie on D while lacking defensive depth and reliable goaltending, aren’t the Oilers, as currently constructed, Colorado Lite?

LadiesloveSmid

Dashingsilverfox:
Before the 2013 draft, Nathan MacKinnon was being pegged as the “next Crosby”.

MacKinnon scored 24G and 63P in his rookie season which is pretty much exactly what the NHLE is for Connor McDavid.

Are MacKinnon and McDavid the same player?

Considering that Colorado also features Matt Duchene, Ryan O’Reilly, Gabriel Landeskog at forward and Erik Johnson and Tyson Barrie on D while lacking defensive depth and reliable goaltending, aren’t the Oilers, as currently constructed, Colorado Lite?

oh boy. Troll hat on today, DSF?

at least come at us with something sensible. Thin, hollow argument. I expect better from even you.

Dashingsilverfox

G Money: I generally only like to bet against the Flames.

But …

What would be your proposed basis for an opposing line?

Your algorithm suggested a 75 point season so we could go over/under on that.

I’m in for a “Woodguy”