THE GODS MUST BE CRAZY

Let’s say for the sake of argument Peter Chiarelli and Glen Sather are talking about Cam Talbot, and let’s say Chiarelli is pumping No. 33 overall and Sather wants No. 16. Let’s say that’s a non-starter  and Sather moves from No. 16 and asks after Nail Yakupov, even offering JT Miller for the Russian and a lesser pick. Let’ say Chiarelli then offers No. 33 this year and something from next year’s draft (third-round pick) for Talbot.

You and I know that a one-year contract is NOT a great deal to acquire (asset is going to cost, and then require re-signing) but it’s silly season. And then suddenly it’s draft week and we’re now to a point where Edmonton may not be in a good position with regard to acquiring Talbot. Backup plans have been mulled, the thought of giving up No. 16 has been rejected, and that third-round pick next year may be needed in a deal for a defenseman this summer. THEN Old man Crazy gets on the horn and asks for the Russian AND No. 16 overall. Nail Yakupov is in a bad spot as an Edmonton Oiler. That’s a fact.

oilers mcdavid tsn

LOWETIDE FINAL TOP 30, 2015

  1. C Connor McDavid, Erie Otters (OHL) All our trials, lord, soon be over.  
  2. C Jack Eichel, Boston U (NCAA) Size, speed, skill, he’s a bull. Monster talent.
  3. R Mitch Marner, London Knights (OHL) Fantastic skater, sublime skill. Catch a fire.
  4. D Noah Hanifin, BC (NCAA) The entire package, signed, sealed and delivered. Stunning passer.
  5. C Dylan Strome, Erie Otters (OHL) Darryl Sittler without the edge. Exceptional hands.
  6. D Ivan Provorov, Brandon Wheat Kings (WHL) Russian Coffey. He can pick it on D, too.
  7. R Mikko Rantanen, TPS Turku (SML) Big W can beat you wide or smash his way to the net.
  8. C Mathew Barzal, Seattle Thunderbirds (WHL) ISS compares him to Claude Giroux. Lordy.
  9. D Zach Werenski, Michigan (NCAA) Big two-way D with complete range of skills. Quality.
  10. R Evgeni Svechnikov, Cape Breton (QMJHL) Voracek meets Tarasenko. Mercy.
  11. R Timo Meier, Halifax Mooseheads (QMJHL) Strong, thick, skilled. Gunner.
  12. D Jeremy Roy, Sherbrooke Phoenix (QMJHL) Big brain, skilled. Born Oiler. Great passer.
  13. C Travis Konecny, Ottawa 67’s (OHL) Modern Bobby Clarke. Great motor, surprising skill.
  14. R Nick Merkley, Kelowna Rockets (WHL) Dynamic offensive winger, playmaker like Hemsky.
  15. C Anthony Beauvillier, Shawinigan (QMJHL) Substantial offensive F, money in FO circle.
  16. C Pavel Zacha, Sarnia Sting (OHL). Complete PF: Size, speed, skill. He’d be top five with results.
  17. C Joel Eriksson Ek, Farjestad (SHL) Impressive C, complete player with significant offense.
  18. L Lawson Crouse, Kingston Frontenacs (OHL) Big, strong, fast, offensively shy.
  19. C Kyle Connor, Youngstown (USHL) Explosive offensive player with skill, intelligence.
  20. L Jake Debrusk, Swift Current (WHL) Quality scoring prospect. Reminds me of Eberle.
  21. C Jansen Harkins, Prince George Cougars (WHL) Smooth, skilled, creative, aggressive.
  22. D Jakub Zboril, Saint John Sea Dogs (QMJHL) Two-way D, solid offense. Noticeable.
  23. D Thomas Chabot, Saint John (QMJHL) Size, speed, skill, good defenseman. Could go higher.
  24. R Daniel Sprong, Charlottetown Islanders (QMJHL) Sniper, quick, skilled.
  25. D Oliver Kylington, Farjestad (SHL) Unsafe at any speed? Could be a major home run.
  26. R Zach Senyshyn, SSM Greyhounds (OHL) Fast train with skill and size. Could go higher.
  27. R Blake Speers, SSM Greyhounds (OHL) Exceptional speed, substantial skill.
  28. F Colin White, USNTDP (USHL) Fine skater, two-way player. Complete skills, a little shy offensively.
  29. D Travis Dermott, Erie Otters (OHL) Undersized, mobile defender. A gem.
  30. C Filip Chlapik, Charlotteteown (QMJHL) Two-way C, range of skills. 2C based on offense.

No matter what happens this week, the “Gods Must Be Crazy” summer of Oil will rock the NHL with the grand prize of the century, Connor freaking McDavid.

CHIARELLI’S LIST

  1. Draft McDavid (and sign him)
  2. Find a quality goalie option (this is the Talbot/Lehner item)
  3. Acquire a legit top pairing blue (as always, clear as mud days before bullets fly)
  4. Sign a more offensive two-way F (I’m hoping for Soderberg)
  5. Ignore MacT re: Marincin (Or trade Marincin for someone goooooood)

I posted that list the other day, received significant push back from a few people saying it wasn’t enough. Sure, but here’s the deal: In order for me to add “second-pairing defender to take Jeff Petry minutes” we needed to see a buyout for Niki Nikitin or Andrew Ference. The window opened 48 hours after the conclusion of the Stanley Cup and remains open until the end of June. Plenty of time, and yet crickets currently. IF the Oilers find a way to buy out or trade one of the defensemen, and sign or acquire another blue? Fantastic! It’s a lot, impossible I’d say without moving one of Nikitin, Ference or Schultz. Let’s add a secondary, fantasy list:

  • Buyout one of Nikitin or Ference
  • Add a second-pairing Petry replacement
  • Offload Ben Scrivens
  • Add a second goalie of significant reputation
  • Offload Teddy Purcell
  • Add a “Pisani” who can mentor, score 15, and play a two-way role up and down the lineup

PROJECTED LINEUP

  • Hall—McDavid—Eberle
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Justin Williams
  • Soderberg—Lander—Yakupov
  • Hendricks—Gordon—Klinkhammer
  • Sekera—Michalek
  • Marincin—Fayne
  • Klefbom—Schultz
  • TalbotEnroth

Two things: I don’t think that’s even possible in one summer—unreasonable expectations, let’s call it—and I’m also not sure it’s wise to move Teddy Purcell and Ben Scrivens this summer. They are sunk costs, but Purcell is a veteran NHL player and Scrivens should regress to the mean. I understand the idea behind it (improve NOW, don’t waste a moment of time because McDavid’s entry-level deal starts ticking in October) but the smart play here—at least a little—is to take what the market gives you and keep your powder dry until you see the whites of their eyes (thank you Josey Wales). Make those moves if available, but let’s remember the extreme value of getting Nikitin, Scrivens and Purcell’s contracts off the books at season’s end. Rome wasn’t built in a day.

The Oilers are going to be a stripped down group in Sunrise but the scouts on the floor during the 2015 draft will clearly be part of the future. The question now? How many will be left? Chiarelli took care of the OHL on the weekend, plus the two head men. I don’t wish anyone ill will, it’s tough to see people lose their jobs. It’s curious to see the bloodletting here while Scott Howson, Craig MacTavish and others remain. Ladies, it is IMPOSSIBLE to credibly lay blame at the feet of Kent Hawley and Brad Davis while also allowing MacT and Howson to slide. Surely this is the truth? I believe it is.

wood photo

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

We’re back! Polka till you puke! OR, more sports talk. Scheduled to appear:

  • Scott Burnside, ESPN. What a week! Trades! Free Agent Window opens! Draft! Awards! We’ll cover it all.
  • Benjamin Massey, Maple Leaf Forever. Fantastic win for Canada in Vancouver yesterday. We’ll talk Women’s World Cup.
  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon. I want to get to the bottom of the MacT/Howson slide, we’ll speak of many things.
  • Bob Weeks, Score Golf. WHAT a major! There’s 50 angles on the US Open story, we’ll cover maybe three.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Glad to be back!

 

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215 Responses to "THE GODS MUST BE CRAZY"

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  1. OilCanFan says:

    With the goalies out numbering the spots available, I wouldn’t overpay in a trade with Sather. One year of a goalie isn’t bargaining from a position of strength in my opinion.

  2. dustrock says:

    Friedman tweeted that the Oilers have asked for permission to speak to Paul Maclean?

    Bit strange, neh?

  3. leadfarmer says:

    Yes all those moves is a lot for one summer but those defense upgrades are very reasonable and a good place to start.

  4. Pouzar says:

    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC 9m9 minutes ago
    EDM is another team that has asked for permission to talk to former OTT head coach Paul MacLean.

  5. AsiaOil says:

    Since I was bitching about people not looking at AHL results when assessing Talbot – I went and did a bit very quick poking around comparing his pre-NHL numbers to other comparables. Certainly not a complete set and I just took what could be considered the best guys in his general age group. I only looked at seasons with at least 30 games where these guys were starters or at least 1A/B. The best goalies spend very little or no time in the AHL. Like skaters they go straight to the NHL – but slightly later at 20-21 – the real gems don’t need it. Here’s how the guys rank based on NHL entry age and SP in AHL – I think it’s pretty close to actual value – and it’s another variable worth considering (especially for younger guys) in addition to just NHL performance. Again this is just interesting rather than definitive.

    Price – NA – NHL @ 20
    Luongo – NA – NHL @ 20
    Quick – NA – NHL @ 21
    Mason – NA – NHL @ 21
    Rask – 102 AHL games / .906 SP / NHL @ 21
    Schnieder – 136 AHL games / .918 SP / NHL @ 24
    Dubnyk – 171 AHL games / .916 SP / NHL @ 24
    Holtby – 107 AHL games / .912 / NHL @ 24
    Talbot – 88 games / .912 SP / NHL @ 26
    Rinne – 145 AHL games / .909 SP / NHL @ 26

    So this put Talbot’s at the bottom of this very strong group (no shame in that) and I think I found his comparable. Rinne played very little in Sweden for 3 years before being drafted as an over-ager. He played in the AHL between 23-25 and then jumped to the NHL at 26 – much like Talbot.

    Mason is another very interesting guy who probably suffered from bad development decisions in Columbus (might have been better off in the AHL) and then they traded him just as he was ready – bad moves all around and I think Philly may have committed grand theft.

    Finally in this write up Dubnyk is where he has always been – right on Schneider’s tail – and I think he will be there for several years. That sequence of events where MacT publicly devalued DD – then tried to replace him by offering serious assets in exchange for a goalie who I think is only marginally better – then imposing Eakins and the swarm prior to dumping him after a bad 1/2 season was unadulterated buffoonery. Give MacT a golden clown nose and shoes for this move along with how he handled Petry. Two awful awful moves that are still hurting this summer – but of course it got us CMD – so there is a silver lining through sheer luck.

    But anyway – I’m actually warming up to Talbot a bit now that I have an actual comparable that turned out well. Still would not offer more than the Petry picks because of the UFA issue – if he plays well for half a season he will cost >$4 million with term to resign (average starter money) and would still be considered unproven and risky. Would also be good if we had a decent vet to pair with him as a 1A/1B. So for all of those reasons I’d still pass and look at other options.

  6. Hall Awaits says:

    A couple interesting tweets this morning…

    @SportsnetSpec: Reorganization in EDM continues. More scouting terminations expected today. Stay tuned.

    @FriedgeHNIC: EDM is another team that has asked for permission to talk to former OTT head coach Paul MacLean.

    I wonder if Howson survives this week?

  7. leadfarmer says:

    Pouzar,

    Nelson replacement?

  8. Pouzar says:

    Aaron Portzline ‏@Aportzline 19m19 minutes ago
    NHL GM over the weekend, noting teams’ salary cap woes: “You can get a hell of a player with a second-round pick (at this year’s draft).”

  9. cc says:

    Since the Oiler’s can’t negotiate a contract for Talbot until mid-season. If you are the Oiler’s do you offer the Rangers a conditional pick in the 2016 draft. Something along the lines of this.
    a. If Talbot doesn’t resign it becomes a 4th round pick
    b. If Talbot resigns it becomes a 3rd round pick
    c. If Talbot resigns AND the Oilers make the playoffs it becomes a 2nd round pick.

    The only team I could see offer a better deal would be Buffalo out of the teams listed in the tweet above.

  10. zatch says:

    Maclean may be better suited to an assistant role. Here in Ottawa, he made a LOT of sub-optimal roster choices with a group that needed near perfection in deployment to be effective. He seemed to have a few guys he didn’t like (Weircoch in particular) that sat and cost the team.

    For the goalies, I only get nervous that we won’t have a partner when the music starts. It wouldn’t be good if we passed on some “overpays” for a goalie, smugly sure we saved ourselves from being swindled, and then finish 25th because it shockingly turns out we still needed a goalie and it’s important.

  11. wheatnoil says:

    Pouzar:
    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC9m9 minutes ago
    EDM is another team that has asked for permission to talk to former OTT head coach Paul MacLean.

    MacLean and McLellan won a Stanley Cup together as Babcock’s assistants. The connection makes sense.

  12. Pouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    Pouzar,

    Nelson replacement?

    I would think so. Shocking that PM didn’t get another Head coaching gig somewhere.

  13. cc says:

    leadfarmer:
    Pouzar,

    Nelson replacement?

    I would assume he would either be the associate or the AHL coach. It would be a good pickup. They have familiarity with each other (Todd & Paul) from Detroit. Also, Bryan and Pete know each other pretty well perhaps it would not cost a pick.

  14. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil: MacLean and McLellan won a Stanley Cup together as Babcock’s assistants. The connection makes sense.

    Just saw yer tweet. Good catch.

  15. wheatnoil says:

    Status quo on Devan Dubnyk contract talks. Wild GM Chuck Fletcher slated to meet with agent Mike Liut in Florida this week— Pierre LeBrun (@Real_ESPNLeBrun) June 22, 2015

    If Dubnyk hits the UFA market, that changes the whole playing field.

  16. Stud Muffin says:

    I don’t think Nail is in trouble at all. 20 points in his last 28 games and on a 2.5m contract and I also suspect people in the organization and specifically Darryl Katz are in Yaks corner.

  17. su_dhillon says:

    On Howson, have we heard anything? I don’t remember seeing anything that said he was going to be kept on but maybe I missed it.

    I asked last week if we would see a sail on for amateur scouts after the draft, a little surprised with the timing but impossible to argue that they we’rent warranted. The MacT and Howson items mentioned above are absolutely on point, the whole thing seems strange and I wouldn’t be shocked if Mact moves on quietly next summer.

    The goalie chase is fascinating, There is a part of me that would love to see the OIlers move Scrivens and find two reasonable bets both in acquiring costs and dollars paid at the position and see if you can’t find something that hits big.

    But what Talbot is really THE guy, I have read that WG post a couple of times and if he actually is a guy that belongs in that company than anything below the 16th overall seems like a pretty great deal and you are set for the first half of the McDavid era. Going to be a fascinating week or so.

  18. godot10 says:

    Letting the scouts go before the draft (with NDA’s intact) lets them network for potential job openings in Florida this week.

  19. leadfarmer says:

    A head coach with experience and now maybe a recent Jack Adams winner for an assistant, well I’m speechless. I think we need to bring in Petr Klima as assistant GM so I can make sense of this

  20. bsmart says:

    It is just wrong to fire people on the eve of McJesus Christmas! The best gift from thehockey gods will be now known as McJesus Christmas or June 26th 2015. 😉

  21. Marc says:

    LT

    I’d be surprised if Chia is that interested in meting out punishment for mistakes made under the old regime. Fans may want their pound of flesh, but I doubt that the new PHO cares that much about the past.

    I suspect that he’s much more interested in what the carryovers from the old regime can contribute going forward. If a person has useful skills, and is willing to employ them in the manner and in the role that Chia sets out for them, then there’s no real reason to get rid of them.

    If a person is not deemed to have useful skills, or is not willing to employ them in the way the new boss wants, then it’s no surprise if they are shown the door.

    Whilst MacT and Howson have both made big mistakes in the past, I don’t think there is any question that they have skills and experience that Chia could potential find useful. Hawley and Davis perhaps not so much.

  22. AsiaOil says:

    As for your secondary list – not necessary mostly – focus on the defense and getting one good goalie:

    Buyout one of Nikitin or Ference: I’d add off-loading Shultz and getting an better replacement to this list. We can survive one year with two of Shutlz/Nikitin/Ference as 6/7 but not all three. One goes this summer – one at the trade deadline – one next summer. Patience……

    Add a second-pairing Petry replacement: yes and Michalek is my choice if possible

    Offload Ben Scrivens: agree with G Money that a bounce-back may be possible. But if TOR would take Yak and Scrivens for Bernier I’d be all over it.

    Add a second goalie of significant reputation: not necessary unless you can trade Scrivens

    Offload Teddy Purcell: sure but not at cost and not without being replaced by another “real NHL player”

    Add a “Pisani” who can mentor, score 15, and play a two-way role up and down the lineup: sure this would be nice if a value deal was there – not willing to overpay.

  23. Pouzar says:

    Stud Muffin:
    I don’t think Nail is in trouble at all. 20 points in his last 28 games and on a 2.5m contract and I also suspect people in the organization and specifically Darryl Katz are in Yaks corner.

    A lot of rumors on twitter he’s being shopped and there is a lot of interest. Who knows how reputable some of these sources are but there is some noise.

  24. flyfish1168 says:

    Stud Muffin:
    I don’t think Nail is in trouble at all. 20 points in his last 28 games and on a 2.5m contract and I also suspect people in the organization and specifically Darryl Katz are in Yaks corner.

    I agree. Nail I feel should be the 2nd line RW in the depth chart. Purcell is the 3rd liner, one year left on his contract and maybe the player moving out this summer. he is not fast enough if we want a fast skating team.

  25. godot10 says:

    bsmart:
    It is just wrong to fire people on the eve of McJesus Christmas! The best gift from thehockey gods will be now known as McJesus Christmas or June 26th 2015.

    Why do you want Connor McDavid to be tortured and crucified?

  26. Truth says:

    It’s going to be an exciting couple of weeks! This is history. Not many could say they were around for the original shift from BC to AD. We are currently 4 BC and on Friday the Oiler’s universe begins time in AMD.

    Interesting article on Talbot’s value, with special consideration to the Oilers:

    http://sports.yahoo.com/blogs/nhl-puck-daddy/what-we-learned–what-is-cam-talbot-actually-worth-052327438.html?soc_src=mediacontentstory&soc_trk=tw

  27. Ducey says:

    Pouzar:
    Elliotte Friedman ‏@FriedgeHNIC9m9 minutes ago
    EDM is another team that has asked for permission to talk to former OTT head coach Paul MacLean.

    The Oilers are trying to balance out the Mac’s with the Mc’s.

    MacT
    TMc
    McDavid
    PMac

  28. godot10 says:

    Marc:
    LT

    Whilst MacT and Howson have both made big mistakes in the past, I don’t think there is any question that they have skills and experience that Chia could potential find useful. Hawley and Davis perhaps not so much.

    MacT: Wrong on Glencross. Wrong on Hejda. Wrong on PItkanen. Wrong on Stoll. Wrong on Robert Nilsson. Wrong on Penner. Wrong on Petry. Wrong on Clarkson. Wrong on Eakins. Wrong on Dubnyk.

  29. jm363561 says:

    It is going to be an amazing few weeks. Is PChia going for a Tampa, Islanders build Rome in a day blitzkrieg, or take some time to see what he’s got when operating in a non dysfunctional environment (while waiting for KBom, Darnell and Leon (andJShultz, lol) to come along and save us)? Any roster like the above would be friggin’ miraculous but my money is not on the blitz – a goalie and two solid Ds fine with me. (Ever thought about a competition to see who can most accurately predict the 2015.16 roster?)

  30. dustrock says:

    Exactly how many draft picks does Chiarelli want to give other teams for compensation here?

  31. G Money says:

    Just a follow up thought from the last thread, Re: LA/Sekera/Richards and a tie-in to Yak.

    It’s just amazing how Richards’ rapid decline has turned his contract so toxic.

    If he were anywhere close to the .8 ppg player he was in Philly, that $5.75M cap hit, even stretching out for another five years, would look OK, and someone would take him in a heartbeat.

    But in the last three years, he’s put up 61 points in 183 games on a stable, deep, and well coached Cup contender, and is on a steep downtrend. If Lombardi can get *anyone* to take that off his hands without his having to pay through the nose in other assets … he’ll deserve any and all accolades, that will be miraculous.

    By contrast, everyone’s favourite whipping boy, Yakupov, has 88 in 192 in the most toxic environment possible, and showed distinct signs of recovery, running something like 0.7 ppg+ in the last quarter of the season. That $2.5M x 2 may turn into a real beauty.

  32. G Money says:

    godot10: MacT: Wrong on Glencross. Wrong on Hejda. Wrong on PItkanen. Wrong on Stoll. Wrong on Robert Nilsson. Wrong on Penner. Wrong on Petry. Wrong on Clarkson. Wrong on Eakins. Wrong on Dubnyk.

    Last I checked, MacT was not the GM prior to the Petry situation.

  33. G Money says:

    Ducey: The Oilers are trying to balance out the Mac’s with the Mc’s.

    MacT
    TMc
    McDavid
    PMac

    Makes sense to me.

    If they hire PMac, I expect to see LT’s legendarily rumoured BALANCE picture!

  34. Ducey says:

    As for the scouts vs MacT/ Howson:

    We have no idea what sort of recommendations these guys have been coming up with for the last 10 years.

    It seems evident that the 2013 draft has MacT’s hands all over it. He is the guy that made the call on Nurse and he traded down a few times to get guys like Slepy and Yak2. I’d keep him around. That was a real nice draft.

    As for the rest, who knows? All we can say is that collectively they have not met expectations.

  35. G Money says:

    AsiaOil,

    You know what’s funny is that my very first look at goalies was intended to be a bit of an exploration rather anything particularly rigorous. Since then, Wheat looked in depth at the washouts, then he and I looked in depth at the relationship between early sv% and career sv% for all goalies starting in the last decade, and then we closed out with some extra work from you, FrJohnK, and Wheat and I looking at whether early stage volatility was a concern.

    And through it all, the conclusion I came to in that very first post is exactly where I find myself today:


    That said, here is what I would conclude would be a reasonable bet for next year, if it can be made to happen:

    1. Keep Ben Scrivens. Doesn’t seem likely we’d get good value in a trade (sell low), and a rebound year is a reasonable expectation.

    2. If you sign Cam Talbot, you may have solved your goaltending for the next decade. But next year might be pretty risky.

    3. Neuvirth is the steady eddy bet.

    So:

    – A Neuvirth/Talbot tandem may solve the Oiler goalie problem next year and the next ten years. At worst, we have a capable tandem. But what do you do with Scrivens? Three-headed monster?

    – A Scrivens/Talbot tandem is risky for next year if Talbot has a bad year (good chance) and Scrivens doesn’t rebound (I’d say he will, but continued suckage is certainly possible).

    – A Scrivens/Neuvirth tandem is likely to solve most of the problems in the short term, but might not provide top rank goaltending in the long term. That would depend on where Scrivens gets to.

    Me? I’d go get both Neuvirth and Talbot, as long as the cost for either (cap for the former, trade assets for the latter) is not too dear. If Ben rebounds and it turns into a three-headed monster, I say that’s a good problem to have.

  36. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    G Money,

    In this scenario, assuming you get Talbot and Neuvirth, you might as well trade Scrivens. I get that his value will be low, but you’re just going to run him as a #3 all year and then he’s UFA.

    If he bounces back, good for him. Doesn’t change what you would have gotten out of him at the end of the year.

    A seventh rounder, if you can get it, is better than nothing.

  37. G Money says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I guess that depends on whether the cap space he’s taking up makes a difference or not. If you’re needing that money to pay for Sekera, then yeah, that makes sense.

    But if you have the cap space available, and (for example) Talbot has a bad year and Scrivens rebounds in a big way, not only have you got superior goaltending for the year, but you can still consider trading Scrivens (depending on the playoffs situation) at the deadline and get a much higher return.

    Remember, out of those scenarios I postulated, only Neuvirth would be signed for the long(ish)-term, I’d guess he’d sign for $2.5M x 4. But both the Perfesser and Talbot are only signed for next year. You have to extend one of them, or more tricky, figure out which one to extend next year!

    Another reason why paying too much for Talbot is a problem – you’re only getting one year before UFA.

  38. godot10 says:

    G Money: Last I checked, MacT was not the GM prior to the Petry situation.

    MacT sat Hejda in the pressbox for 50 games. He decided to leave the following off-season. The Oilers didn’t make him an offer.

    You think when Lowe was offering Robert Nilsson a 3-year $1.5 million AAV contract, while Glencross was not getting his phone calls returned that MacT might have asked his blood brother what was going on.

    Stoll had the audacity to challenge the coach. Leaders tend to do that when the coach is wrong. Question me boy? Your ass is outta here.

    Coaches have input, and as close as MacT and Lowe were, MacT certainly had input. Look at all of Eakins’ Marlies that MacT brought in.

  39. Ducey says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    G Money,

    In this scenario, assuming you get Talbot and Neuvirth, you might as well trade Scrivens.I get that his value will be low, but you’re just going to run him as a #3 all year and then he’s UFA.

    If he bounces back, good for him.Doesn’t change what you would have gotten out of him at the end of the year.

    A seventh rounder, if you can get it, is better than nothing.

    They won’t get anything for Scrivens. No one would even take him on waivers.

    I’d stick with him as he HAS to rebound. Add in Neuvirth and you should have a decent duo without giving up anything for them. Broissoit isn’t that far away either.

    The return Sather wants for Talbot seems prohibitive.

  40. AsiaOil says:

    Hey G – yeah I haven’t changed much either except for understanding the risk associated with Talbot a bit better. I’m still in the Bernier (long-term) / Anderson (short-term) solution camp – of course all based on what it costs. Hard to know what the best deal is without seeing the price-tags right 🙂

    G Money,

  41. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    G Money,

    I understand, but the only way he will bounce back is if he plays at the NHL level, as I doubt any amount of AHL success would mean anything at this point in his career.

    Barring major injury I don’t see how Scrivens would be able to bounce back due to playing time constraints. For that reason I’d say trade him if you can.

    Ducey,

    I agree, what I’m saying is that in the event we get both Neuvirth and Talbot, we should trade Scrivens if possible.

    It’s unlikely we get both to start with though.

  42. Rational Zealot says:

    The Gods must be Crazy is right. There is so much irrationality out there it is hard to begin speaking about it.

    Sharp for a first round pick, a A grade prospect and a top six player on an ELC? That’s like me asking a million dollars for my house (note, no one will pay one million dollars for my house).

    Sharp isn’t worthy any of those things, yet alone all three, and yet somehow guys like Dreger can repeat that with a straight face.

    Talbot for the #16 pick is similarly ridiculous.

    The NHL is a highly irrational market place.

  43. Yeti says:

    godot10: Why do you want Connor McDavid to be tortured and crucified?

    So that he can die for the sins of our perpetual rebuild, resurrect us from the basement of the NHL, and then can lead us to heaven where we drink champagne from Stanley Cups for blissful eternity.

  44. AsiaOil says:

    Highly irrational and particularly at certain periods – like now. The Oilers are at a special place in that we are loaded with extra picks in a good year but actually need vets. Teams over-value picks this week – sometimes drastically – we need to capitalize on this if possible. I have no problem trading any of our “extra” picks acquired in trade for real players. We gave up real players to get these – probably got fair value in that Petry was under-valued and Perron was over-valued – but these plyers must be replaced with other guys who can help now.

    Now is the time to take advantage of cap issues and a desire for picks. Don’t let the jackal Sather hide his weak position with Talbot as an impending UFA and no first rounder. He’s vulnerable and don’t let the smirk fool you. We are in a great position and looking forward to seeing how Chai does over the next 10 days which will define his first year for the most part.

    Rational Zealot,

  45. John Chambers says:

    Rational Zealot,

    And yet other good but undervalued players will be traded for 5th round picks or acquired as salary dumps.

  46. Woogie63 says:

    PC to do list

    1) Create an expectation that we will make the play-off this year,

    2) Draft McDavid,

    3) Secure an impact defenceman …. Hamilton, Larrson, Jones, Josi, Hanifin type player,

    4) Move on from the management you are not keeping.

  47. Rational Zealot says:

    AsiaOil,

    It sounds to me like teams are undervaluing the value of first round picks, at least by the chatter.

  48. speeds says:

    lowetide, from the article:

    It’s curious to see the bloodletting here while Scott Howson, Craig MacTavish and others remain. Ladies, it is IMPOSSIBLE to credibly lay blame at the feet of Kent Hawley and Brad Davis while also allowing MacT and Howson to slide. Surely this is the truth? I believe it is.

    Even if Chiarelli has decided to move on from those guys at some point, the day before the draft is when pending UFA’s can first talk to teams. Chiarelli himself can’t talk to everyone at once to get an understanding of which players are and aren’t interested in EDM, both MacTavish and Howson can help during that incredibly busy 36 hours pre-draft.

    Presumbly the Oilers have already set up or are setting up some frameworks for deals involving draft picks*, but those would probably depend on (a) who is available in the draft and (b) which UFA’s will sign, meaning you may not need to make a trade.

    *or otherwise, but those involving draft picks are probably more time sensitive.

  49. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    In my secret fantasy world, Yakupov has a breakout year because I like thi kids attitude! No stats to back me up, except maybe his showing toward the end of last year out from under a bad coaching situation.

    With McJesus, a new coach and GM there’s a fresh new atmosphere here that may benefit a lot of players. No question, LOADS of work needs to be done to improve the team but it feels like trading Yak now would be bad.

    Also in my fantasy land Ference graciously retires, Nikitin asks to go to the KHL and a cap floor team pleads with Chiarelli to give them Purcell for their first round pick this year…

    Oh and the sky is alway clear blue, it rains only at night and snow is only a nasty rumor in my world so, there is that. Still, exciting times ahead!

  50. Jordan says:

    Question for the smart people here:

    Can you imagine a reasonable scenario that doesn’t see the Oilers trade a pick away in the first 3 rounds this year AND gets them a starting Goalie?

  51. AsiaOil says:

    Rational Zealot,

    Yes but some GMs always get crazy when the shopping doors open at the draft

  52. leadfarmer says:

    I doubt chia moves Yak. He said coming in no big roster changes right away. He will add one or two defenseman and reevaluate as the year goes on. Doubt he wants a reenactment of the Seguin trade.

  53. leadfarmer says:

    Jordan,

    Ufa pickup. I don’t think the coach likes Niemi but Enroth, Ramo, of Neuvirth are decent pickups

  54. speeds says:

    Jordan:
    Question for the smart people here:

    Can you imagine a reasonable scenario that doesn’t see the Oilers trade a pick away in the first 3 rounds this year AND gets them a starting Goalie?

    Sure. Maybe they talk to the pending UFA’s, and one they like seems very likely to sign with them.

    Or maybe they like a Miller, Lehtonen or Hiller etc, and one of those teams moves for less than a 3rd just to move out the money.

  55. Rondo says:

    re: Evgeny Svechnikov

    “I’d be willing to bet that of the 10 or so scouts Bob polls..some had Svechnikov at 15, some had him 18 or so..some had him in the mid or late 20’s. I know of at least one team that wouldn’t draft him in the first because of skating and defensive concerns. All it takes is for a team to like one other guy more..and there is still somewhat of a Russian factor with some teams..easier to say you’ll draft a Russian than to go to the podium and do it. ”

    Grant McCagg head scout McKeen’s.

    I have read he has difficulty skating backwards. I wonder if Oilers are looking at Denis Guryanov at #16 he is 7 mths younger

  56. Showerhead says:

    Jordan:
    Question for the smart people here:

    Can you imagine a reasonable scenario that doesn’t see the Oilers trade a pick away in the first 3 rounds this year AND gets them a starting Goalie?

    Sure. They sign Antti Niemi. Or Kari Ramo. Or Michal Neuvirth.

    Talbot looks like a great bet because of age and projected ability, but he is not the only option.

  57. G Money says:

    Jordan:
    Question for the smart people here:

    Can you imagine a reasonable scenario that doesn’t see the Oilers trade a pick away in the first 3 rounds this year AND gets them a starting Goalie?

    I’ll go out on a limb and assume I’m not one of the dumb ones at least!

    I would be perfectly OK if the Oilers go out and sign Michal Neuvirth as UFA. His performance so far is not stellar (safe to say he’s NHL calibre but not elite) but he’s been amazingly consistent in his career so far, and we know he’s used to being in the fire zone. That means you also hope that Scrivens rebounds (in my view, his last year was horrific but based on early returns, his long term potential is actually as good or higher than e.g. Dubnynks).

    If Scrivens does not rebound, you have Neuvirth providing you with average but steady goaltending.

    If Scrivens does rebound, he provides you with above average to elite goaltending – and you still have a capable backup in hand. Total cost of that tandem would be around $5M, which is absolutely reasonable.

  58. LMHF#1 says:

    No reason to get hung up on Talbot. Either you get him for a reasonable price or you don’t and you move on. Yakupov for him without proven additional components is unreasonable. I hope we re-post these thoughts after the season when he’s finished scoring forty and he’s McDavid’s best bud because they both work like crazy and love the rink so much.

    The only guy who’s not a proven top #1 that I’d consider packaging Yakupov for is Andrei V in Tampa. Even then I’m debating. You might as well keep Nail even if you don’t think of him as highly as I do. He’s signed to a reasonable deal and aside from dealing with the poison that was Dallas Eakins, has done very well.

  59. hunter1909 says:

    “Nail Yakupov is in a bad spot as an Edmonton Oiler. That’s a fact.”

    Here we go.

    Here we go.

    here we go.

    He we go, here we go, here we go.

    I’m almost certain Lowetide sits up nights, devising ever more Fiendish ways to keep my blood pressure set to the max.

  60. leadfarmer says:

    G Money,

    But if Neuvirth gets injured or struggles than we completely rely on Scrivens, which is a recipe for disaster.

  61. LMHF#1 says:

    hunter1909:
    “Nail Yakupov is in a bad spot as an Edmonton Oiler. That’s a fact.”

    Here we go.

    Here we go.

    here we go.

    He we go, here we go, here we go.

    I’m almost certain Lowetide sits up nights, devising ever more Fiendish ways to keep my blood pressure set to the max.

    Don’t worry, he’s using Hemsky-style reverse psychology to keep him here.

  62. hunter1909 says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour: In my secret fantasy world, Yakupov has a breakout year because I like thi kids attitude! No stats to back me up, except maybe his showing toward the end of last year out from under a bad coaching situation.

    Agree. Yakupov is, apparently unknown to many Lowetide readers a certifiably elite talent. My evidence: Watching Disraitl making sublime passes tape to tape from nowhere to Yaks, in the toughest part of the ice(that’s ten feet from the goal).

    Trading him like shoddy shop goods doesn’t cut it. Chiarelli gets this rap sheet from trading Seguin. Notice: The Oilers are not SC champs with cap issues.

  63. wheatnoil says:

    G Money: I would be perfectly OK if the Oilers go out and sign Michal Neuvirth as UFA. His performance so far is not stellar (safe to say he’s NHL calibre but not elite) but he’s been amazingly consistent in his career so far, and we know he’s used to being in the fire zone.

    Neuvirth’s Quality Starts as per Vollman:
    08/09 – 3 games, 33% QS
    09/10 – 16 games, 63% QS
    10/11 – 44 games, 52% QS
    11/12 – 30 games, 47% QS
    12/13 – 12 games, 58% QS
    13/14 – 13 games, 62% QS
    14/15 – 32 games, 47% QS

    Neuvirth Total = 150 games, 52% QS

    Talbot Total = 53 games, 64% QS

    Niemi Total = 333 games, 58% QS

    Lack Total = 72 games, 57% QS

    Bernier Total = 158 games, 56% QS

    Enroth Total = 115 games, 55% QS

    Dubnyk Total = 214 games, 53% QS

    Scrivens Total = 116 games, 51% QS

    Ramo Total = 109 games, 49% QS

    Reimer Total = 159 games, 47% QS

    Based on Quality Start data, which is far from the be-all-end-all, I’d hesitate to say Neuvirth is THAT consistent, particularly this last year. He’s not bad, but Lack and Enroth have better Quality Start stats (admittedly with a smaller sample size).

    Edit: That said, Neuvirth playing behind a terrible team would definitely impact his QS data in this last year, so maybe not as useful of a tool to correct for that.

  64. wheatnoil says:

    Jhonas Enroth

    09-10 1 game 0% QS
    10-11 13 games 54% QS
    11-12 22 games 68% QS
    12-13 9 games 78% QS
    13-14 26 games 54% QS
    14-15 44 games 46% QS

    Total = 115 games, 55% QS

    Honestly, I’m starting to really think Enroth would be a good option and better than Neuvirth, supporting Woodguy’s suspicions. Enroth looks good in our post as well. His cumulative even-strength Sv% and Adjusted Sv% are solid.

    Actually, his cumulative even-strength save percentage in his career is .923, which is league average… and that’s playing in Buffalo for most of his career!

    (edited for ease of reading)

  65. Younger Oil says:

    I don’t know why Yakupov is in danger to stay on the team. He is one of two NHL quality RWs that we have signed past this season, and our RW prospect depth is pretty poor, perhaps the weakest of any position. As stated, he scored 20 points in 28 games, which is on pace for a 59 point season, where most of us would be estatic if he broke 40.

    I also haven’t heard from any other source that Yakupov is on the trading block, or that he is a commodity that other teams are asking for. His value is probably the lowest that it will ever be, and will almost definitely go up in the next two seasons, so it makes next to no sense to trade him now, in my opinion at least.

  66. wheatnoil says:

    Further to Enroth, his career adjusted save percentage is .929. That’s not top 10 or anything and it’s not as impressive as Talbot, but it’s higher than Neuvirth (.926). Neuvirth has had ~3700 shots compared to Enroth’s ~3000. It’s almost the same as Lack (.930) with a much larger sample size (Lack’s had 1800 shots).

    I actually think Enroth might be the best free agent signing… ahead of Neuvirth, Niemi, and others.

  67. G Money says:

    leadfarmer,

    You mean like last year? That wasn’t a problem was it? :-O

    Actually, I’ll suggest to you its different for a couple of different reasons:

    – Based on the early stage goalie work that Wheat and I did, Scrivens’ struggles last year (and Dubnyks the year before) are actually not unusual at all. Given how strong an indicator early stage EV sv% (Scrivens was at around .930) is at predicting career, I’d bet on a rebound. Not guaranteed, but for that not to happen, he’d have to be a substantial outlier relative to what his first 60 games told us about his skill as a goalie.

    – My biggest concern with Talbot is that he may very well be setting up for exactly that kind of year. It would not surprise me at all. Wouldn’t that just delight everyone here if we signed him and then he (predictably) shits the bed!

    – Fasth on the other hand has telegraphed all along that he’s not actually an NHL calibre goalie. So his bad season last year IS likely to be reflective of his career.

    Summary: as their goaltending tandem last year, the Oilers bet on a. a young guy for whom a down year was an unsurprising result, and b. a guy not cut out for the NHL.

    Last years debacle was shocking, but in retrospect, not surprising. At all.

    What’s different this year, if you go with a Neuvirth/Scrivens tandem?

    A. You’re betting on a rebound year. This is the safe bet in my view. His early results are just too good. Go back and watch that San Jose game just to remind yourself!
    B. Neuvirth is into the stable part of his career. He’ll likely improve somewhat from here, but he’s likely past the point where we’d expect to see a big downturn. Further to Wheat’s comments, my point about ‘stability’ is simply a reflection of the stabilization of his sv%. Smoothest curve of any goalie I looked at. But Enroth looks like a solid bet too.

    So superficially a NeuEnroth/Scrivens tandem looks like a similar bet to last year, but fundamentally (IMO) it is a safer bet.

  68. 4020Driver says:

    Hello All, I’ve been following the blog for a while but haven’t logged in to post. I have a question related to the whole Talbot trade story. I know the Oilers or anyone else acquiring Talbot can’t extend him until the middle of next season. However, can the Rangers extend Talbot prior to trading him? Talbot on a 3 or 4YR contract would be a much more valuable trade chip for the Rangers and represent better asset management from a Rangers perspective.

  69. leadfarmer says:

    G Money,

    The way Scrivens handles the puck he needs to post above average numbers to be an average goalie. A good goalie helps his defense get the puck out of the zone, Scrivens helps the puck end up in his net.

  70. raventalon40 says:

    4020Driver:
    Hello All, I’ve been following the blog for a while but haven’t logged in to post.I have a question related to the whole Talbot trade story.I know the Oilers or anyone else acquiring Talbot can’t extend him untilthe middle of next season.However, can the Rangers extend Talbotprior to trading him?Talbot on a 3 or 4YR contract would be a much more valuable trade chip for the Rangers and represent better asset management from a Rangers perspective.

    This I like.

  71. G Money says:

    leadfarmer,

    Lol very true. Those jitters were part of his struggles last year, but I don’t recall his handling being so self destructive the year before.

  72. godot10 says:

    Yeti: So that he can die for the sins of our perpetual rebuild, resurrect us from the basement of the NHL, and then can lead us to heaven where we drink champagne from Stanley Cups for blissful eternity.

    So you see to think that it is fine (to wish) to torture and kill someone in a most gruesome and painful manner to get ahead. Okay. So for you, the ends justify whatever the means, no matter how horrid.

    So would that apply to your firstborn also. Would you wish him to be tortured and crucified so the Oilers could win the Cup? Or is only your neighbour’s son that you are willing to sacrifice?

  73. RexLibris says:

    wheatnoil:
    Jhonas Enroth

    09-101 game 0% QS
    10-1113 games54% QS
    11-1222 games68% QS
    12-139 games78% QS
    13-1426 games54% QS
    14-1544 games46% QS

    Total = 115 games, 55% QS

    Honestly, I’m starting to really think Enroth would be a good option and better than Neuvirth, supporting Woodguy’s suspicions. Enroth looks good in our post as well. His cumulative even-strength Sv% and Adjusted Sv% are solid.

    Actually, his cumulative even-strength save percentage in his career is .923, which is league average… and that’s playing in Buffalo for most of his career!

    (edited for ease of reading)

    Yeah, I’ve been a fan of Enroth for awhile now.

    I was surprised when Buffalo traded him.

  74. wheatnoil says:

    4020Driver:
    Hello All, I’ve been following the blog for a while but haven’t logged in to post.I have a question related to the whole Talbot trade story.I know the Oilers or anyone else acquiring Talbot can’t extend him untilthe middle of next season.However, can the Rangers extend Talbotprior to trading him?Talbot on a 3 or 4YR contract would be a much more valuable trade chip for the Rangers and represent better asset management from a Rangers perspective.

    As far as I’m aware, the Rangers can’t extend him either. His one year contract extension starts in July, so he can’t sign an extension on a one year contract until January, regardless of which team owns his rights.

    I THINK I’m understanding that right.

  75. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris: Yeah, I’ve been a fan of Enroth for awhile now.

    I was surprised when Buffalo traded him.

    I assumed they were trying to trade him for McDavid.

  76. raventalon40 says:

    I am very, very, very much looking forward to McDavid as an Oiler. But a thought just popped into my head, a hypothetical.

    But if Buffalo offers Eichel+++, do you accept? What would your price be? What would your “+++” have to be?

    Answers?! Shoot!

    EDIT: I’m not saying we do it. I’m just curious what price people would set.

  77. godot10 says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour:

    With McJesus, a new coach and GM there’s a fresh new atmosphere here that may benefit a lot of players.

    Why don’t you ask your neighbour if he would have liked his son to have been tortured and crucified for the benefit of a hockey team and its fans?

  78. RexLibris says:

    wheatnoil: I assumed they were trying to trade him for McDavid.

    Pretty much.

    They found themselves at the bottom of a mine shaft and when the slightest ray of light shone down they grabbed the nitro and some primer cord.

    You know, the more I think of it, the Sabres are like the Knights of the Roundtable in Monty Python. They go through hell and beyond to find the Grail only to have the Oilers standing on top of the castle thumbing their nose at them because they got there first.

  79. zatch says:

    raventalon40,

    Eichel, Risto, their other 1st, their 2nd, next years 2nd.

  80. B S says:

    raventalon40,

    Eichel Ristoleinen, Myers and Enroth and next year’s first…

  81. Cahoon says:

    raventalon40,

    Katz just doesn’t let it happen. McDavid is just worth WAY too much money to Katz to trade, even in an overpay.

  82. blainer says:

    A Nue/ Enroth pairing would be great..

  83. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris: Pretty much.

    They found themselves at the bottom of a mine shaft and when the slightest ray of light shone down they grabbed the nitro and some primer cord.

    You know, the more I think of it, the Sabres are like the Knights of the Roundtable in Monty Python. They go through hell and beyond to find the Grail only to have the Oilers standing on top of the castle thumbing their nose at them because they got there first.

    Katz should get up on stage at the draft and fart in their general direction.

  84. B S says:

    B S:
    raventalon40,

    Eichel Ristoleinen, Myers and Enroth and next year’s first…

    Apparently got around moderation this time.

  85. Ducey says:

    B S: Apparently got around moderation this time.

    The computer knows Myers plays for the Jets 🙂

  86. grim.oil says:

    Just spent some time watching some youtube videos of Provorov. Not sure if he is superman or not but that shot he has is an absolute bullet. Seriously makes laser beams look slow. Would love to be able to trade up for this guy.

  87. flyfish1168 says:

    If Chia trades Yak and Prucell is done after next season we would become very weak on the starboard side. It makes no sense to trade Yak with that nice bridge contract . Our right side weak for the 2016-17 season would be weak in the top 6. That would be poor asset management. JMHO

  88. Ducey says:

    For Connor, I think I would need:

    Eichel, Risto, Zadorov, 21, 31, next years first and Kane.

    That is the only way the new GM could justify making the trade: it would have to be a massive overpay.

  89. hunter1909 says:

    Younger Oil: I also haven’t heard from any other source that Yakupov is on the trading block, or that he is a commodity that other teams are asking for. His value is probably the lowest that it will ever be, and will almost definitely go up in the next two seasons, so it makes next to no sense to trade him now, in my opinion at least.

    Agree.

    Unfortunately, Kevin Lowe/MacT’s mismanagement and general subterfuge have warped everyone’s NHL experience, lol.

  90. Visually better says:

    Alexi Zhitnik, Dominik Hasek, Chris Drury, Daniel Briere, Tim Horton, Jochen Hecht, next year’s 7th round pick.
    raventalon40,

  91. B S says:

    Ducey,

    So do I 🙂 , and Enroth’s an FA too right, but I really don’t see much on Buffalo’s roster I like anymore except maybe Grigorenko, Risto, and Bogosian, but not enough to trade McDavid. And I’m not trading him for picks, too much uncertainty there.

  92. judgedrude says:

    raventalon40:
    I am very, very, very much looking forward to McDavid as an Oiler. But a thought just popped into my head, a hypothetical.

    But if Buffalo offers Eichel+++, do you accept? What would your price be? What would your “+++” have to be?

    Answers?! Shoot!

    EDIT: I’m not saying we do it. I’m just curious what price people would set.

    Three first round picks, Carson, Gelinas, and $15 Million in cash! Though, we may need to throw in a future +/- leading defenseman (Schultz) and a winger (Purcell) to even out the bodies.

  93. blainer says:

    flyfish1168:
    If Chia trades Yak and Prucell is done after next season we would become very weak on the starboard side. It makes no sense to trade Yak with that nice bridge contract .Our right side weak for the 2016-17 season would be weak in the top 6. That would be poor asset management. JMHO

    Not if we move drai there.

  94. LMHF#1 says:

    raventalon40:
    I am very, very, very much looking forward to McDavid as an Oiler. But a thought just popped into my head, a hypothetical.

    But if Buffalo offers Eichel+++, do you accept? What would your price be? What would your “+++” have to be?

    Answers?! Shoot!

    EDIT: I’m not saying we do it. I’m just curious what price people would set.

    It would need to be Lindros-level, for proven but young assets and overwhelming.

    #2, Ristolainen, Girgensons, Zadorov and Bogosian.

    Probably money too.

    Maybe. Probably not.

  95. Ducey says:

    Rondo:
    re: Evgeny Svechnikov

    “I’d be willing to bet that of the 10 or so scouts Bob polls..some had Svechnikov at 15, some had him 18 or so..some had him in the mid or late 20’s. I know of at least one team that wouldn’t draft him in the first because of skating and defensive concerns. All it takes is for a team to like one other guy more..and there is still somewhat of a Russian factor with some teams..easier to say you’ll draft a Russian than to go to the podium and do it. ”

    Grant McCagg head scout McKeen’s.

    I have read he has difficulty skating backwards.I wonder if Oilers are looking at DenisGuryanovat #16 he is 7 mths younger

    Does McCagg hate everyone?

    Svechnikov put up 78 points in 55 games, including 32 goals. According to Bob MacKenzie he is an explosive skater skating forwards. Not sure I really care if he can skate backwards.

  96. blainer says:

    Ducey:
    For Connor, I think I would need:

    Eichel, Risto, Zadorov, 21, 31, next years first and Kane.

    That is the only way the new GM could justify making the trade:it would have to be a massive overpay.

    Wow a seven for one.. LT will like that one.. I would make that trade..

  97. Rondo says:

    Ducey,

    He is very opinionated. But if he can’t skate backwards that may work in junior hockey but not the NHL

  98. B S says:

    I should say that I think Eichel is a fantastic prospect, without watching them live I’d say that RELATIVE to McDavid Eichel is behind on his skating and stickhandling but has a better shot. Eichel also has size, and has been playing men (or at least man-childs) so he is definitely tough enough to pull through in the NHL. But in terms of asset management it comes down to not just doing the most with the cap, but also the most with each roster spot (a failing of the Oilers for many years now).

    It’s also why i don’t trade Yakupov (now at least, and if I had my way we’d hold onto him as long as we can). Eichel would be good, but he can only be on the ice for 20 minutes, 10 years of Eichel for 20 minutes a night vs the same of McDavid ends up being a huge difference I think.

  99. Younger Oil says:

    raventalon40:
    I am very, very, very much looking forward to McDavid as an Oiler. But a thought just popped into my head, a hypothetical.

    But if Buffalo offers Eichel+++, do you accept? What would your price be? What would your “+++” have to be?

    Answers?! Shoot!

    EDIT: I’m not saying we do it. I’m just curious what price people would set.

    If I’m doing that, I am trading down multiple times in order to make huge improvements for the team.

    McDavid and Nikitin for Eichel, Ristolainen, 21st OV

    Eichel and Schultz for 3rd OV and OEL

    3rd OV and 57 OV for Couturier and 7th OV

    21st OV and Musil for Maata

    33rd OV for Lack

    Draft Rantanen at #7, Svechnikov at #16

    Which gives us:

    Pouliot-Nuge-Eberle
    Hall-Couturier-Yakupov
    Draisaitl-Lander-Purcell
    Hendricks-Gordon-Klinkhammer

    OEL-Klefbom
    Maata-Ristolainen
    Marincin-Fayne
    Ference

    Lack
    Scrivens

    All of this with Rantanen, Svechnikov, Yakimov, and Slepyshev waiting to step in on Forward, Nurse waiting to move in on D. It also gives us 3 Finns and 2 Swedes, greatly upping the Scandinavian content on the team, while also unloading bad contracts.

    TO BE CLEAR: I know that the above suggestion is never, ever going to happen, and I am incredibly happy with McDavid. I was just stating the moves that I would make if we were to trade the 1st OV, which is definitely not the desireable choice.

  100. Cahoon says:

    Ducey,

    The fact that he mentions the ridiculous ‘Russian factor’ means he subscribes to that xenophobic attitude and is looking for reasons to hate. A winger doesn’t need to be an intensely fast backwards skater.

  101. grim.oil says:

    What are you guys smoking crack? McDavid ain’t going nowhere but E-ville. Stop thinking of worthwhile offers. Your wasting your time and sounding like a bunch of Kevin and Craig’s.

  102. Surly says:

    Mark Spector ‏@SportsnetSpec 20s20 seconds ago
    #Oilers have parted ways with pro scout Dave Semenko and coaching advisor Billy Moores.

    More of ‘out with the old, in with the new’

  103. Woodguy says:

    @EdmontonOilers: #Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli will host a media availability at 2pm MT. We’ll be live-tweeting followed by http://edmontonoilers.com coverage.

  104. Woodguy says:

    Surly:
    Mark Spector ‏@SportsnetSpec20s20 seconds ago
    #Oilers have parted ways with pro scout Dave Semenko and coaching advisor Billy Moores.

    More of ‘out with the old, in with the new’

    I hope the presser is to say MacT is gone too.

    Suprised Moores got the pipe. Everyone has nothing but good things to say about him.

  105. Younger Oil says:

    LT, not sure if I have done something wrong, but for the past week or so, any of my longer comments (more than a couple of paragraphs) seem to be put straight into moderation. It is not a big deal, just not sure if anyone else has had the same problem, and thought I’d let you know.

  106. russ99 says:

    Despite what we do to fix goaltender, this much is certain:

    If we try 1A and 1B goalies again, it’s doomed to failure.

    If you think Talbot is worth the assets we have to give up and his contract next offseason (with all the contract leverage if he plays well, mind you) then you have to give him the #1 role and have him run with it.

    If we overpay in FA for Niemi or Neuwirth, same thing goes.

    I’m OK with keeping Scrivens, but unless there’s an injury, he’s the backup and should be given 10-15 games max.

  107. LMHF#1 says:

    Surly:
    Mark Spector ‏@SportsnetSpec20s20 seconds ago
    #Oilers have parted ways with pro scout Dave Semenko and coaching advisor Billy Moores.

    More of ‘out with the old, in with the new’

    No matter what Moores does I’ll always remember him for trying to berate Jarret Stoll over a play that just happened, then Stoll explaining that he wasn’t on the ice, and Billy just continuing on like it didn’t happen. So hilarious.

    He’s accomplished many things – including making me laugh like a crazy person.

  108. zatch says:

    BLOOD FOR THE BLOOD GOD
    SKULLS FOR THE SKULL THRONE

    Truly, this is a purge. I’ve heard on here some people were low on Semenko as a scout. Was that based on anything in particular? Other than the team-wide awfulness?

  109. LMHF#1 says:

    Woodguy: I hope the presser is to say MacT is gone too.

    Suprised Moores got the pipe. Everyone has nothing but good things to say about him.

    Too many people hanging around at this point and some have to go given that the new regime is likely trying to recruit.

    If MacTavish and Buchberger are officially gone this afternoon I’ll be doing a dance for the rest of it.

  110. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy:
    Suprised Moores got the pipe. Everyone has nothing but good things to say about him.

    Might be more to do with a change in the organizational structure. They may be doing coaching development differently.

  111. v4ance says:

    Surly,

    Spector has gotten a few of the scoops on scouts who were let go. I wonder who is feeding him the info….

  112. Messier11edm says:

    russ99:
    Despite what we do to fix goaltender, this much is certain:

    If we try 1A and 1B goalies again, it’s doomed to failure.

    If you think Talbot is worth the assets we have to give up and his contract next offseason (with all the contract leverage if he plays well, mind you) then you have to give him the #1 role and have him run with it.

    If we overpay in FA for Niemi or Neuwirth, same thing goes.

    I’m OK with keeping Scrivens, but unless there’s an injury, he’s the backup should be given 10-15 games max.

    have a bad feeling about Talbot…that we will overpay. I’m still not convinced there is ennough on him to say he’s a sure #1…not to mention his short contract.

  113. Ice Sage says:

    The Gods must be Crazy, indeed…
    Yak reminds me of Xi from that movie – intrepid, naive but someone who will eventually, circuitously get to complete his mission. Hopefully in copper and blue.

    Any of those Eichel deals (save the Danny Gare one) would make the Oilers a better team, IMO, Forsberg / Lindros-style, but not gonna happen.

    McDavid’s pricelessness is in the marketing and the sobering effect (already on display) of having the responsibility to not eff this up.

    Bob McKenzie has a book – Hockey Confidential – with a great chapter on CMcD’s ascendency – must reading for those who wonder why this kid is soooooo special. He has the singular focus, common to all the greats.

  114. wheatnoil says:

    v4ance:
    Surly,

    Spector has gotten a few of the scoops on scouts who were let go.I wonder who is feeding him the info….

    Probably Dellow.

  115. hags9k says:

    If we have to send out a 21 year old, former 1st overall pick, just to get a goalie, I’ll be off the Chiarelli bandwagon before it even leaves the station.

  116. Messier11edm says:

    LMHF#1: Too many people hanging around at this point and some have to go given that the new regime is likely trying to recruit.

    If MacTavish and Buchberger are gone this afternoon I’ll be doing a dance for the rest of it.

    Maybe they are relieving Semenko of his duties because they want him on the ice to protect McDavid! 🙂

  117. LMHF#1 says:

    Messier11edm: Maybe they are relieving Semenko of his duties because they want him on the ice to protect McDavid!

    Probably still could. I golfed at the same course as Semenko for a while. Pretty sure no one would mess with him much even now. If anything he looks more intimidating.

  118. Jordan says:

    wheatnoil,

    That made me giggle. Nice.

  119. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: Probably Dellow.

    Well done.

  120. wheatnoil says:

    So far:
    Head of Amateur Scouting and the OHL scouts
    Head of Pro Scouting (Gare) and Semenko (together constituting half of the pro scout division)
    Director of Coaching Development and Special Projects

    None of these have been officially announced by the Oilers yet. I imagine we’ll hear about them and more at PC’s PC.

  121. v4ance says:

    wheatnoil,

    HA!

    If Dellow is talking to Spector, he’s probably ripping him a new one.

    Again.

  122. Gerta Rauss says:

    Woodguy,

    Anxiously awaiting your scouting reports on Pasatiempo and Pebble. I’ve got the same trip on my agenda (San Fran then drive down the coast)

    Did you have tee times at Pebble ie:stay in the lodge..?…or did you walk on in the morning..?

  123. Messier11edm says:

    wheatnoil:
    So far:
    Head of Amateur Scouting and the OHL scouts
    Head of Pro Scouting (Gare) and Semenko (together constituting half of the pro scout division)
    Director of Coaching Development and Special Projects

    None of these have been officially announced by the Oilers yet. I imagine we’ll hear about them and more at PC’s PC.

    all i have to say is Bravo! Not easy to do what he’s doing. Especially when you consider the ties these guys have had with the team.

  124. hunter1909 says:

    Woodguy:
    @EdmontonOilers: #Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli will host a media availability at 2pm MT. We’ll be live-tweeting followed by http://edmontonoilers.com coverage.

    Like Chiarelli so far. No talking, just action.

  125. Ducey says:

    Billy Moores was doing coach development. Made sense with young coaches like Eakins and Neslon.

    TMc and maybe PMac don’t need development

    Kind of weird that Chia is doing a PC this close to the draft. Normally GM’s want to keep all their discussions and draft leanings to themselves.

    You know he is going to get asked about Talbot.

  126. wheatnoil says:

    Messier11edm: all i have to say is Bravo!Not easy to do what he’s doing.Especially when you consider the ties these guys have had with the team.

    What’s interesting is the ongoing house cleaning while Dellow gets retained. He would’ve been an easy person to just sweep aside given he was hired by a a fired coach and is relatively new to the organization without previous contact with Chiarelli. Seems like Chia is making specific decisions and not just cleaning house.

    Also seems likely that if Chiarelli is keeping Dellow while firing so many others, he plans on actually listening to him.

  127. vinotintazo says:

    Saw Klowe yesterday dining @ Century Park Restaurant. Probably with his son (father’s day?).
    He didnt look worried.

  128. oliveoilers says:

    If they introduce Chia this afternoon to the theme from GoT, we’ll know he’s not done yet.

  129. wheatnoil says:

    Ducey:
    Billy Moores was doing coach development.Made sense with young coaches like Eakins and Neslon.

    TMc and maybe PMac don’t need development

    Kind of weird that Chia is doing a PC this close to the draft.Normally GM’s want to keep all their discussions and draft leanings to themselves.

    You know he is going to get asked about Talbot.

    He’s probably going to talk about the organizational changes / firings, thank them for their years of dedication to the organization, and steer clear of any draft talk.

    He’ll probably spend 5 minutes talking without tipping his hand about anything.

    Like a pro.

  130. oliveoilers says:

    hunter1909: Like Chiarelli so far. No talking, just action.

    it’s……..bold.

    Has anybody ever heard of an entire scouting staff being fired days before a draft in any sport?

  131. Messier11edm says:

    wheatnoil: What’s interesting is the ongoing house cleaning while Dellow gets retained. He would’ve been an easy person to just sweep aside given he was hired by a a fired coach and is relatively new to the organization without previous contact with Chiarelli. Seems like Chia is making specific decisions and not just cleaning house.

    Also seems likely that if Chiarelli is keeping Dellow while firing so many others, he plans on actually listening to him.

    Perhaps bc he’s had less time to prove his worth, and you’re probably right – Chia will likely hear what he has to say. However I also believe he will be on a short leash.

  132. borisnikov says:

    Off topic…

    LT you said you’d trade Leon for Hanifin in comments the other day. Reynolds @ C&B came up with some pretty damning comps today and his ceiling may not be as certain as it appears. Reynolds argues Provorov would be a better bet. Interesting stuff. Any thoughts (anyone)?

  133. Магия 10 says:

    Yak > 16th OV, for all x where x E {NHL GMs}
    Yak >> 16th OV until Chia Pete completes his semester 1 watch.

  134. Lois Lowe says:

    wheatnoil,

    Chia is a lawyer, Dellow is a lawyer. I’m sure they found common ground on how shoddily the organization has been run.

    On the bloodletting of the last few days, Chia is a former scout and was a GM last year. I’m sure he had a list of his own. Sounds like the Oilers’ scouting list looked a tad different.

  135. Магия 10 says:

    Lois Lowe:
    wheatnoil,

    Chia is a lawyer, Dellow is a lawyer. I’m sure they found common ground on how shoddily the organization has been run.

    On the bloodletting of the last few days, Chia is a former scout and was a GM last year. I’m sure he had a list of his own. Sounds like the Oilers’ scouting list looked a tad different.

    Actually he’s retaining Dellow as his media advisor.

  136. GCW_69 says:

    G Money: Last I checked, MacT was not the GM prior to the Petry situation.

    What does that mean? MacT didn’t offer Petry a contract after Petry completed year one of his bridge deal. MacT then gave Petry’s money to Nikitin.

    Tambo didn’t lock Petry up long term, but there was plenty of opportunity starting July 1 2013 to lock Petry up and MacT sat around with his thumb up his ass convincing himself Beloved and Grebs were the answer.

  137. AsiaOil says:

    wheatnoil,

    W&O – stats be stats – but last year when MIN needed a goalie and the BUF pair of Enroth and Neuvirth were both available – Bob Mason who is one the the league’s best goalie coaches in the league made a definitive decision to choose Dubnyk. The results speak for themselves. From what I’ve read Mason wasn’t very high on either of the former BUF goalies.

  138. TheGreatMutato (Formerly TheGreatMutato) says:

    Leave it to Oilers fans to start hypothetically trading McDavid before he’s even drafted. Is it October yet? Well, is it Friday yet? Woooooooot!

    I’m not sure if this has been discussed already, but how much potential value does Katz gain from that draft lottery win? In 2014, the franchise was valued at $475MM with revenues around $120MM. In the NBA, which arguably derives the most from its ‘stars’, there is a metric which shows the effect of gaining or losing a superstar player. Moves such as the Clippers getting Griffin (+17%), the Heat getting LeBron+ (+40%), the Cavs losing LeBron (-64%) all show great effect on the value of the franchises in question.

    So now we have the next great Canadian phenom coming to a Canadian market – what kind of book value does that add to Oilers? Is $100MM (~20% gain) a low-ball guess? Take into account the new arena, higher ticket prices and potential revenue and it might be.

    tl;dr Connor McDavid isn’t getting traded for the Moon, let along for hockey players.

  139. G Money says:

    borisnikov:
    Off topic…

    LT you said you’d trade Leon for Hanifin in comments the other day. Reynolds @ C&B came up with some pretty damning comps today and his ceiling may not be as certain as it appears. Reynolds argues Provorov would be a better bet. Interesting stuff. Any thoughts (anyone)?

    Hmmm, I’m not on board with that analysis overmuch.

    The big issue as I see it is that all the comps other than Erik and Jack Johnson go back 12 or more years. And even those two are a decade old as comparators. I think at that point you’d have to say that era effects – unless you’ve done some work to calculate conversion factors – would swamp any distinctions you’d find.

    The other issue – and this is raised more as a question, not a concern – is that I get the general sense that the assessment of Erik Johnson is he’s grown the last couple of years into a legit top pairing defenseman. Anyone watch COL enough to agree or disagree?

  140. LMHF#1 says:

    TheGreatMutato (Formerly TheGreatMutato):
    Leave it to Oilers fans to start hypothetically trading McDavid before he’s even drafted. Is it October yet? Well, is it Friday yet? Woooooooot!

    I’m not sure if this has been discussed already, but how much potential value does Katz gain from that draft lottery win? In 2014, the franchise was valued at $475MM with revenues around $120MM. In the NBA, which arguably derives the most from its ‘stars’, there is a metric which shows the effect of gaining or losing a superstar player. Moves such as the Clippers getting Griffin (+17%), the Heat getting LeBron+ (+40%), the Cavs losing LeBron (-64%) all show great effect on the value of the franchises in question.

    So now we have the next great Canadian phenom coming to a Canadian market – what kind of book value does that add to Oilers? Is $100MM (~20% gain) a low-ball guess? Take into account the new arena, higher ticket prices and potential revenue and it might be.

    tl;dr Connor McDavid isn’t getting traded for the Moon, let along for hockey players.

    Your argument is fine, but the question was based on what’s coming back, not the economic impact.

    Katz would likely veto any deal for that pick due to the reasons you note, and be prudent in doing so.

  141. G Money says:

    GCW_69: What does that mean? MacT didn’t offer Petry a contract after Petry completed year one of his bridge deal.MacT then gave Petry’s money to Nikitin.

    Tambo didn’t lock Petry up long term,but there was plenty of opportunity starting July 1 2013 to lock Petry up and MacT sat around with his thumb up his ass convincing himself Beloved and Grebs were the answer.

    Um, yes, that was my point.

    Everything on the list from Petry forward is at MacT’s doorstep.

    Everything before Petry is not.

  142. LMHF#1 says:

    Lois Lowe:
    wheatnoil,

    Chia is a lawyer, Dellow is a lawyer. I’m sure they found common ground on how shoddily the organization has been run.

    The problem being that lawyers are often not so great at running organizations either. Much of the dysfunction in law firms is rooted in this lack of training and unwillingness to hire the needed expertise to run a complex business, at least from what I’ve seen from a number of angles.

    Hopefully Chiarelli has the training and/or willingness to get those he needs.

  143. Woodguy says:

    AsiaOil:
    Since I was bitching about people not looking at AHL results when assessing Talbot – I went and did a bit very quick poking around comparing his pre-NHL numbers to other comparables. Certainly not a complete set and I just took what could be considered the best guys in his general age group. I only looked at seasons with at least 30 games where these guys were starters or at least 1A/B. The best goalies spend very little or no time in the AHL. Like skaters they go straight to the NHL – but slightly later at 20-21 – the real gems don’t need it. Here’s how the guys rank based on NHL entry age and SP in AHL – I think it’s pretty close to actual value – and it’s another variable worth considering (especially for younger guys) in addition to just NHL performance. Again this is just interesting rather than definitive.

    Price – NA – NHL @ 20
    Luongo – NA – NHL @ 20
    Quick – NA – NHL @ 21
    Mason – NA – NHL @ 21
    Rask – 102 AHL games / .906 SP / NHL @ 21
    Schnieder – 136 AHL games/ .918 SP / NHL @ 24
    Dubnyk – 171 AHL games / .916 SP / NHL @ 24
    Holtby – 107 AHL games / .912 / NHL @ 24
    Talbot – 88 games / .912 SP / NHL @ 26
    Rinne – 145 AHL games / .909 SP / NHL @ 26

    So this put Talbot’s at the bottom of this very strong group (no shame in that) and I think I found his comparable. Rinne played very little in Sweden for 3 years before being drafted as an over-ager. He played in the AHL between 23-25 and then jumped to the NHL at 26 – much like Talbot.

    Mason is another very interesting guy who probably suffered from bad development decisions in Columbus (might have been better off in the AHL) and then they traded him just as he was ready – bad moves all around and I think Philly may have committed grand theft.

    Finally in this write up Dubnyk is where he has always been – right on Schneider’s tail – and I think he will be there for several years. That sequence of events where MacT publicly devalued DD – then tried to replace him by offering serious assets in exchange for a goalie who I think is only marginally better – then imposing Eakins and the swarm prior to dumping him after a bad 1/2 season was unadulterated buffoonery. Give MacT a golden clown nose and shoes for this move along with how he handled Petry. Two awful awful moves that are still hurting this summer – but of course it got us CMD – so there is a silver liningthrough sheer luck.

    But anyway – I’m actually warming up to Talbot a bit now that I have an actual comparable that turned out well. Still would not offer more than the Petry picks because of the UFA issue – if he plays well for half a season he will cost >$4 million with term to resign (average starter money) and would still be considered unproven and risky. Would also be good if we had a decent vet to pair with him as a 1A/1B. So for all of those reasons I’d still pass and look at other options.

    Good stuff AO.

    Here’s a snippet of something interesting I found when looking at goalie’s AHL numbers.

    Most of the best goalies have better NHL numbers, some of them are significant.

    Top 5 goalies + Dubnyk for overall SV% over last 3 years with minimum 2500min played.

    Goalie – AHL – NHL – Difference

    Talbot – .914 – .931 – +.017
    Rask – .910 – .926 – +0.16
    Schneider – .921 – .925 – +.004
    Anderson – .913 – .915 – +.002
    Crawford – .908 – .917 – + .009
    Dubnyk – .907 – .914 – + .007

    While Talbot is out performing his AHL number signfiicantly, he’s not the first to do it and most of the elite goalies who spend time in the AHL out perform that number.

    I think we can expect Talbot to settle in around .925 or so goalie long term.

    Oilers won’t get hi though. I bet DAL steps up and gets him.

    They can take a ton of salary on and also have room on the blue line to take an expensive Dman, and that might tip it for Sather

  144. linkfromhyrule says:

    borisnikov:
    LT you said you’d trade Leon for Hanifin in comments the other day. Reynolds @ C&B came up with some pretty damning comps today and his ceiling may not be as certain as it appears. Reynolds argues Provorov would be a better bet. Interesting stuff. Any thoughts (anyone)?

    I can’t say I agree with the comparables or the conclusion. All the players he compared Hanifin to were a) older and b) from a long time ago. The most recent comparable on the list was from 2006.

    He then concludes that Provorov and Werenski are better options without demonstrating how he came to that conclusion. That said, I don’t think the answer to “who is best” of the 3 will be answered any time soon. Here’s hoping Werenski falls to us!

  145. frjohnk says:

    G Money: Hmmm, I’m not on board with that analysis overmuch.

    The big issue as I see it is that all the comps other than Erik and Jack Johnson go back 12 or more years.And even those two are a decade old as comparators.I think at that point you’d have to say that era effects – unless you’ve done some work to calculate conversion factors – would swamp any distinctions you’d find.

    The other issue – and this is raised more as a question, not a concern – is that I get the general sense that the assessment of Erik Johnson is he’s grown the last couple of years into a legit top pairing defenseman.Anyone watch COL enough to agree or disagree?

    Erik Johnson is not of the ELITE top pairing grouping but he is a top pairing D man. That knee injury hurt his development. Missed a whole year at 20 years old.

    All the guys on that list from the 2000’s played in the NCAA in their draft +1 season. Hanifin put up similar numbers basically 1 year earlier than they did.

    That’s a big difference at that age ( 17 vs 18).

    I was on the Hanifin train until we won the lottery.

  146. leadfarmer says:

    If talbot is available for a decent price I would be happy with Talbot and Enroth. With Macdavid, Draisatl, Nurse, yakupov, Schultz, Lander, Marincin and the 16th overall pick whoever that is all either breaking in or trying to establish themselves in the NHL in the next year or two, not having reliable goaltending is not an option. Having every one of your mistakes end up in your net is a good way to ruin prospects. I included Schultz and Yak cause even though they have been in the league for 3 years, they are about as reliable as a rookie.

  147. rickithebear says:

    •Add a second-pairing Petry replacement

    we could move Nikitin from 1st comp down to 2nd comp

    Nikitin
    2nd comp
    2.38 EVGA/60
    .199 EVp/gm
    -1.0 CD/60

    Petry
    2nd comp
    2.94 EVGA/60
    +.6 CD/60
    .194 EVP/GM

  148. AsiaOil says:

    Woodguy,

    Thanks WG – here’s an interesting point. We nick any skater who puts up good points in the AHL after after the age of 21/22 – but we appear to ignore goalie age as a factor in performance. IMHO – any guy who can step into an NHL net at 20 or 21 and survive has serious “stuff” – numbers be damned. Most of the good ones appear to graduate around 24. A few late bloomers arrive when Talbot did at 26+. But how much should we nick Talbot for putting up these numbers at a significantly older age than many of his peers? Does it matter at all? I’m skeptical that it’s irrelevant and we seem to be projecting him as a typical goalie who is several years younger. Could be that he already “is what he is” and there may not be any more development for this player. Question is though – what is he?

  149. Woodguy says:

    Gerta Rauss:
    Woodguy,

    Anxiously awaiting your scouting reports on Pasatiempo and Pebble. I’ve got the same trip on my agenda (San Fran then drive down the coast)

    Did you have tee times at Pebble ie:stay in the lodge..?…or did you walk on in the morning..?

    Stayed at Inn at Spanish Bay and made tee times at Pebble and Spyglass as a package with the rooms. Good central spot.

    Will work up a report soon.

  150. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    godot10: Why don’t you ask your neighbour if he would have liked his son to have been tortured and crucified for the benefit of a hockey team and its fans?

    Yeah, well I’m pretty sure Walts answer would be no. I can’t say that I’d ever advocate that sort of thing either.

    Seems to me there have been enough cases of previous management here, if not crucifying, then at least offering up for sacrifice many good players. It hasn’t turned out well. But it sure has created a negative sense for this organization for long enough.

    So I see no place for torture, crucifixion or sacrifice. Just looking forward to a good GM drafting the right pieces, making sound trades and letting a good coach do what he does best. This all sounds so unlike what we’ve come to expect from the Oilers. To me it’s breath of much longed for fresh air.

    And I wouldn’t mind if MacT is shown the door today either. There has been something fundamentally wrong with this organization for a long time now – maybe since Sather left I don’t know but I for one a tired if it. Can’t say I know who is to blame but I think Lowe, MacT and all other of the OBC need to removed.

    McDavid represents a new era.

  151. G Money says:

    AsiaOil,

    That’s the thing – if he ‘is what he is’, ‘what he is’ is incredibly good. No need to adjust for age at all, he’s as good or better in the last two years in the actual NHL as quite a number of unquestionably elite goalies.

  152. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Truth:
    It’s going to be an exciting couple of weeks!This is history.Not many could say they were around for the original shift from BC to AD.We are currently 4 BC and on Friday the Oiler’s universe begins time in AMD.

    Public crucifixions and all.

  153. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk,

    Johnson and Barrie are a legit top pairing, Colorados problem is they don’t have anyone else on D.

  154. Lowetide says:

    borisnikov:
    Off topic…

    LT you said you’d trade Leon for Hanifin in comments the other day. Reynolds @ C&B came up with some pretty damning comps today and his ceiling may not be as certain as it appears. Reynolds argues Provorov would be a better bet. Interesting stuff. Any thoughts (anyone)?

    Scott does brilliant work and I love his series. Hanifin is a brilliant outlier (they just don’t come along) and his uniqueness is reflected in the Reynolds’ graph. I would share his concern save for the substantial spike we saw in the new year. Hanifin’s offense is bona fide, although how much we can expect is still a moving target (and the reason I have him ranked No. 4).

  155. borisnikov says:

    G Money,
    linkfromhyrule,
    frjohnk,
    Lowetide,

    Good stuff guys. Thanks for the replies:)

  156. OilSafety says:

    Anyone got a link to the media avail?

  157. book¡je says:

    Hi LT, I’m a long time reader, first time poster.

    I wonder if the scouts presented their draft list and whenever Chiarelli asked why they rated player X so high, the scouts responded that the player was a real character guy and that Stevy Y liked him and didn’t have much else to say.

    As per Yakupov, my sources tell me he isn’t going anywhere. Then again, my sources are my cats.

  158. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer:
    frjohnk,

    Johnson and Barrie are a legit top pairing, Colorados problem is they don’t have anyone else on D.

    yup.

  159. Diesel says:

    godot10: So you see to think that it is fine (to wish) to torture and kill someone in a most gruesome and painful manner to get ahead. Okay. So for you, the ends justify whatever the means, no matter how horrid.

    So would that apply to your firstborn also. Would you wish him to be tortured and crucified so the Oilers could win the Cup?Or is only your neighbour’s son that you are willing to sacrifice?

    godot10: Why don’t you ask your neighbour if he would have liked his son to have been tortured and crucified for the benefit of a hockey team and its fans?

    I think you need to relax a bit. Regardless of the fact that LT has created an incredibly civil community, this is still the internet. It’s welcome to all people, and that means all belief systems.

    If you don’t embrace the (affectionate) McJesus nickname, regardless of why, it’s really not worth picking a fight over. No one here is going “too far” (though if we really were to dive into this, I would argue there is no such thing) when drawing such a comparison, and every person here has as much right to take pleasure in doing so as you have in taking offence.

    Beyond that, remember that “just because you’re offended, doesn’t mean you’re right”.

  160. Woodguy says:

    AsiaOil:
    Woodguy,

    Thanks WG – here’s an interesting point. We nick any skater who puts up good points in the AHL after after the age of 21/22 – but we appear to ignore goalie age as a factor in performance. IMHO – any guy who can step into an NHL net at 20 or 21 and survive has serious “stuff” – numbers be damned. Most of the good ones appear to graduate around 24. A few late bloomers arrive when Talbot did at 26+. But how much should we nick Talbot for putting up these numbers at a significantly older age than many of his peers? Does it matter at all? I’m skeptical that it’s irrelevant and we seem to be projecting him as a typical goalie who is several years younger. Could be that he already “is what he is” and there may not be any more development for this player. Question is though – what is he?

    I don’t think its irrelevant either.

    I’m a big believer that goalies don’t get better with age.

    On the other side of that coin, we don’t know how good the Dmen are in front of them in the AHL and NCAA etc (we don’t have adjusted SV% outside of the NHL)

    We also don’t know the impact of pro coaching on the players.

    I think we need to ding for the age thing, but also the players might need a boost from better Dmen and coaching.

  161. oliveoilers says:

    6 guys, 4 days before your most important draft yet to date?

    Personally, I would have waited until the draft was over before firing them all into the sun. That way at least you can pin the blame on them for any…….unconventional choices. Scape-goating 101, week one.

    The time to fire them was the day after Chia was hired.

    Edit: Unless Chia was coloured really, really unimpressed by their lists.

  162. Marc says:

    oliveoilers:
    6 guys, 4 days before your most important draft yet to date?

    Personally, I would have waited until the draft was over before firing them all into the sun.That way at least you can pin the blame on them for any…….unconventional choices.Scape-goating 101, week one.

    The time to fire them was the day after Chia was hired.

    Edit:Unless Chia was coloured really, really unimpressed by their lists.

    The problem with firing the scouts then is that you wouldn’t be able to replace them. Scouts from other organisations that had recently been fired would still be on non-compete/non-disclosure terms so they couldn’t help with this draft, and guys that weren’t working as scouts this season wouldn’t know the draft eligible kids well enough to be able to run a draft.

  163. Gerta Rauss says:

    @EdmontonOIlers
    “I would think we’ll have two assistant coaches in place by Friday.” #Oilers GM Chiarelli on Head Coach Todd McLellan’s support staff
    Expand

    “It’s a tool in my toolbox… I wouldn’t rule out using it.” #Oilers GM Peter Chiarelli on offer sheet potential

    edit-I don’t see a live feed anywhere(haven’t looked that hard)..I’m just c/p these tweets from the Oilers homepage

  164. Lowetide says:

    book¡je:
    Hi LT, I’m a long time reader, first time poster.

    I wonder if the scouts presented their draft list and whenever Chiarelli asked why they rated player X so high, the scouts responded that the player was a real character guy and that Stevy Y liked him and didn’t have much else to say.

    As per Yakupov, my sources tell me he isn’t going anywhere. Then again, my sources are my cats.

    I think PC has people in mind for the OHL and feels that area has been under-drafted by EDM for many years. I don’t have cats but my dog says I should spend more time with her and less time with hockey.

  165. leadfarmer says:

    Gerta Rauss,

    So your saying there’s a chance!!

  166. Gerta Rauss says:

    book¡je: Hi LT, I’m a long time reader, first time poster.

    Welcome bookeljie

    a word of advice, don’t mention the war, or that Jesus fellow around these parts (bit of a touchy subject)

  167. dustrock says:

    Chiarelli said he open to offers on any of the picks except #1.

    Said he expects to have a goalie by the draft but isn’t 100% certain.

    Also, maybe it was already mentioned, but someone on HFB said Jen Scrivens quit her job at Ronald McDonald House today.

  168. dustrock says:

    Regarding Hanifin, a few things stand out to me:

    (1) His age.

    (2) His team scored, I believe, the fewest goals in something like 40 years. If you run Hanifin’s IPP versus the players Reynolds listed (not even sure that data is available), how does he compare?

    (3) Believe his scoring was far better in the 2nd half of the season, which I expect is probably a good sign.

  169. Магия 10 says:

    dustrock:
    Friedman tweeted that the Oilers have asked for permission to speak to Paul Maclean?

    Bit strange, neh?

    Gerta Rauss: @EdmontonOIlers
    “I would think we’ll have two assistant coaches in place by Friday.” #Oilers GM Chiarelli on Head Coach Todd McLellan’s support staff

    goo goo g’joob.

  170. godot10 says:

    Diesel:
    I think you need to relax a bit. Regardless of the fact that LT has created an incredibly civil community, this is still the internet. It’s welcome to all people, and that means all belief systems.

    If you don’t embrace the (affectionate) McJesus nickname, regardless of why, it’s really not worth picking a fight over. No one here is going “too far” (though if we really were to dive into this, I would argue there is no such thing) when drawing such a comparison, and every person here has as much right to take pleasure in doing so as you have in taking offence.

    Beyond that, remember that “just because you’re offended, doesn’t mean you’re right”.

    There was nothing uncivil about my response. They (and you) have a right to free speech. So do I. I have the right to challenge your speech. I’m not picking a fight.

    Is it “affectionate” to suggest that McDavid be tortured and executed in a gruesome manner for the benefit of Oiler fans?

    You are the one who is being uncivil by suggesting that I should “relax”.

  171. godot10 says:

    dustrock:
    Regarding Hanifin, a few things stand out to me:

    (1) His age.

    (2) His team scored, I believe, the fewest goals in something like 40 years.If you run Hanifin’s IPP versus the players Reynolds listed (not even sure that data is available), how does he compare?

    (3) Believe his scoring was far better in the 2nd half of the season, which I expect is probably a good sign.

    Gaudreau, Hayes, and Arnold graduated or left college the season before at BC. Could you imagine what Hanifin’s point totals would have been if the BC forward group was not “green”, but those other three guys were still there for his freshman season.

  172. Surly says:

    godot10:

    You are the one who is being uncivil by suggesting that I should “relax”.

    Guys…keep in mind Mehrabian’s research findings that only 7% of all communication is the actual words written. You are both working with a 93% crutch by not having tone/inflection + body language at your disposal.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Albert_Mehrabian

  173. 10W30 says:

    Chia Interview

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=830297&lang=en

    @ 8-9 min mark “For me its how we are going to improve our D and how we are going to play defensively”

  174. Halfwise says:

    godot10: There was nothing uncivil about my response.They (and you) have a right to free speech.So do I. I have the right to challenge your speech. I’m not picking a fight.

    Is it “affectionate” to suggest that McDavid be tortured and executed in a gruesome manner for the benefit of Oiler fans?

    You are the one who is being uncivil by suggesting that I should “relax”.

    I’ll side with Godot on this one. There are plenty of good ways to convey one’s admiration of McDavid without references to matters of faith.

    Back in the Eakins era, when Godot’s opinion of MacT’s career-limiting hiring error strayed across the line, plenty of posters here pushed back.

    A nickname for Connor McDavid that does not mock someone’s religious beliefs shouldn’t be that hard to come up with.

  175. Kris11 says:

    Connor Mohammed?

  176. Diesel says:

    godot10: There was nothing uncivil about my response.They (and you) have a right to free speech.So do I. I have the right to challenge your speech. I’m not picking a fight.

    Is it “affectionate” to suggest that McDavid be tortured and executed in a gruesome manner for the benefit of Oiler fans?

    You are the one who is being uncivil by suggesting that I should “relax”.

    I’m actually not saying you were being uncivil; sorry if that was unclear.

    I was more trying to point out that despite the internet being a breeding ground for rude and provocative (or worse) interaction, this is as close to a safe haven as you’re going to find. So, analogous humour related to Jesus and Connor is pretty tame.

    Pick your battles is all I’m really getting at here.

  177. Pajamah says:

    Kris11:
    Connor Mohammed?

    Would you like to see the drawing I made of him?

  178. dustrock says:

    If the Stanley Cup won’t come to McDavid, then McDavid will have to go get the Stanley Cup.

    Or something.

  179. linkfromhyrule says:

    Kris11:
    Connor Mohammed?

    How about the Flying Spaghetti Connor?

  180. B S says:

    Pajamah,

    and here I was resisting telling Godot to just be happy none of us were drawing cartoons.

    we should probably refrain from carrying this on to much longer lest LT smite us (or any of us cause more offense).

    Unrelated to the blog, but I thought it was a definite change in protocol for Chia’s conference to not be streamed live. Basically avoided making a big to-do about changing out scouting from the past regime.

  181. B S says:

    linkfromhyrule,

    Oh, I like that one!

  182. wheatnoil says:

    10W30:
    Chia Interview

    http://video.oilers.nhl.com/videocenter/console?catid=4&id=830297&lang=en

    @ 8-9 min mark “For me its how we are going to improve our D and how we are going to play defensively”

    Also says he’s not opposed to either going for a younger goalie with a smaller sample size or a more experienced goalie. He’s not ruling out the UFA market but he also said he hoped to have something done before the draft. It sounded like he was looking to make a trade but if the right deal isn’t there then he’ll go to the UFA market.

  183. Diesel says:

    Halfwise: There are plenty of good ways to convey one’s admiration of McDavid without references to matters of faith.

    A nickname for Connor McDavid that does not mock someone’s religious beliefs shouldn’t be that hard to come up with.

    I agree with you. It’s not that hard.

    I just believe that point is irrelevant and I’m prone to defending the apropos “Devil’s advocate” point of view.

    Where do we draw the line, then? Are any Greeks going to get offended if we compare Yak’s shot to a bolt from Zeus? How about Druids when LT refers to mana from heaven?

    I’m not trying to encourage some kind of never-to-be-settled debate here, but c’mon….

  184. Pajamah says:

    B S:
    Pajamah,

    and here I was resisting telling Godot to just be happy none of us were drawing cartoons.

    we should probably refrain from carrying this on to much longer lest LT smite us (or any of us cause more offense).

    Unrelated to the blog, but I thought it was a definite change in protocol for Chia’s conference to not be streamed live. Basically avoided making a big to-do about changing out scouting from the past regime.

    Agreed. Had to say it, now time to move on.

    Chia is definitely walking softly but carrying a big stick. This isn’t, to him atleast, big news, and doesn’t require the entire city to stop what they are doing. I like his management to say the least, and if his player procurement is even half as impressive, we as fans will be in for a lot more brighter days ahead.

  185. Adam Wu says:

    One of the side effects of being part of a very dominant faith is that your faith terms and beliefs percolate into the outer culture and are subsumed into it. And when that happens those terms and beliefs and references are *no longer* exclusive to you and your faith, nor do you, or can you, or any member of your faith community, claim exclusive ownership of the usages of those terms and beliefs and references.

    Because they are no longer “just” faith terms anymore, then are CULTURAL terms, such that everyone that is a part of that larger culture is entitled to use those terms.

    And it so happens that the exact meanings of those terms and references may change, and that which is used culturally may not be identical to that which is used within the faith.

    It may suck a bit to have your deeply held beliefs subjected to cultural appropriation you may not approve of, but frankly the benefits of being a member of a, or the, dominant faith group far outweigh that minor inconvenience.

    Now, considering that the “Jesus” term/belief/meme-set, in its cultural usage, has diffused a significant degree beyond the original religious usage, to encompass all manner of savior-related themes, not only those involving self-sacrifice, the insistence that affectionate references to said term must, or de facto, include reference to “torture and execution in a gruesome manner” is quite frankly an exercise in deliberately picking a fight, and rather intellectually dishonest to boot.

    If one must have a religious analogy to this, then just consider that “McJesus” can easily reference REVELATION Jesus rather than Gospel Jesus.

  186. Lowetide says:

    New post is up.

  187. bendelson says:

    Question to Woodguy (and others in the Meloche camp):

    Why are you not concerned with footspeed issues?

    When comparing Juulsen to Meloche, I can’t see someone who favours skating and edgework over grit and toughness picking Meloche at #33. Don’t get me wrong, he sounds like a fine prospect, but where does he come out ahead of Juulsen?

    Perhaps you have Juulsen going before #33?
    Perhaps I am missing some key information here…

    #justsaynoah?

  188. Diesel says:

    Adam Wu,

    Amen!

  189. Derek says:

    I’m so pleased that the above discussion was had out on a blog post entitled, “The Gods must be Crazy.”

  190. Lowetide says:

    Younger Oil:
    LT, not sure if I have done something wrong, but for the past week or so, any of my longer comments (more than a couple of paragraphs) seem to be put straight into moderation. It is not a big deal, just not sure if anyone else has had the same problem, and thought I’d let you know.

    I don’t have anything in the queue so don’t know what’s up there.

  191. G Money says:

    Adam Wu,

    Preach it, brother Adam!

  192. Lowetide says:

    Derek:
    I’m so pleased that the above discussion was had out on a blog post entitled, “The Gods must be Crazy.”

    People know it’s a move title right? I mean, it’s not a shot at Jesus it’s a movie.

  193. Showerhead says:

    Adam Wu,

    Wow. Inspired post – well said!

  194. Bruce McCurdy says:

    blainer:
    A Nue/ Enroth pairing would be great..

    Sure worked for Buffalo. 😐

  195. G Money says:

    Lowetide: People know it’s a move title right? I mean, it’s not a shot at Jesus it’s a movie.

    Yeah, but if we’re using Godot logic, it means you used that title because you’re hoping that somebody in an airplane is going to drop a bottle on Chia’s head!

  196. Woodguy says:

    bendelson:
    Question to Woodguy (and others in the Meloche camp):

    Why are you not concerned with footspeed issues?

    When comparing Juulsen to Meloche, I can’t see someone who favours skating and edgework over grit and toughness picking Meloche at #33.Don’t get me wrong, he sounds like a fine prospect, but where does he come out ahead of Juulsen?

    Perhaps you have Juulsen going before #33?
    Perhaps I am missing some key information here…

    #justsaynoah?

    The only thing Redline mentions about his skating is “good mobility” and praises his hockey IQ endlessly.

    ISS says this about his skating: “Has good size and balance. Good skater who can pivot well but needs to work on his overall quickness and speed. Good first pass, average puck skills and vision.” – Phil Myre, International Scouting Services

    Pronman said this: ” He’s an above-average skater who moves the puck well, and has a quality shot from the point”

    That sounds like he has the tools to skate at the NHL level with some teaching.

    He has a great IPP and also brings size, hockey IQ and toughness.

    That’s a real nice package that projects to be a NHLer.

  197. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Sure worked for Buffalo.

    Welllllll … in fairness, it worked well enough that Tim Murray felt obliged to send both of them away so that they didn’t risk his shot at McEichel.

  198. B S says:

    Lowetide,

    nice deflection LT.

  199. spoiler says:

    godot10: Is it “affectionate” to suggest that McDavid be tortured and executed in a gruesome manner for the benefit of Oiler fans?

    No, so it is very strange that you are ACTUALLY THE ONLY ONE suggesting it.

    You have spent weeks now insisting on putting words into people’s mouths they never said and then berating them for it. It’s laughable.

    Some day someone will explain to you the difference between taking something literally and taking something metaphorically.

    I pray that, for the sake of everyone here, that day comes soon.

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