WING AND A PRAYER

Peter Chiarelli worked very hard during the draft and free-agent period to add help where it was most needed for Edmonton. He addressed goaltending (Cam Talbot, Miroslav Svoboda), defense (Andrej Sekera, Griffin Reinhart, Eric Gryba, Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, John Marino, Ziyat Paigin) and center (Connor McDavid, Mark Letestu). He added one winger—ONE!—during the week (Lauri Korposki). Why? Extreme quality and depth. A team with Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Benoit Pouliot and Nail Yakupov isn’t exactly desperate for an NHL-ready player and the team’s prospect group has some nice options.

We’re at the point in the summer where I begin to peg the fall roster and the 2015-16 season. It’s part of the RE series and helps me project what might happen. It’s funny, because the process forces some frustrating conclusions (Niki Nikitin inside the top 4D) and some interesting possibilities (on the road, Lauri Korpikoski could get a lot of play).

I’ve been staring at the wingers this weekend, trying to get the depth chart set. There’s a tremendous amount of talent here, most of the names below this group won’t see the NHL unless there are injuries.

  • Skill LW: Hall, Pouliot
  • Skill RW: Eberle, Yakupov, Purcell
  • Two-Way LW: Matt Hendricks
  • Two-Way RW: Lauri Korpikoski, Rob Klinkhammer
  • Luke Gazdic: Luke Gazdic

The Oilers are set for as far as the eye can see on skill wing, the worry (I believe) of dealing Yakupov has past.  This is an excellent set of skill wingers—shy on the defense but let’s be real they aren’t here for the checking—and Hall—Eberle plus Pouliot have genuine NHL experience now. If Nail can emerge as a 25-goal man, music! Eberle and Pouliot are signed through 2019, Hall 2020 and Yakupov should be signed beyond those outposts if he earns a long-term deal. One thing we should be aware of? Cost. When the McDavid cluster starts to get paid in 2018 summer, an emerging winger with skill may allow Chiarelli to trade one of the established wingers. The ‘Hawks are currently writing the book on this subject.

The checkers are a veteran group, penalty killers and shot blockers. There’s nothing like a role player who knows he’s a role player and I think Korpikoski might be able to jump up from time to time. Gazdic has a chance to make the team and be a factor, McLellan will want to see him do some actual hockey things but one suspects he makes the grade. All in this group are easily replaced, either via minor leaguer or trade.

AHL OPTIONS AND EMERGING TALENTS

PC didn’t spend a nickel on adding to the skill winger group, definitely because of the bona fide group above. They’re already in the NHL and have miles and miles of blacktop under control. That’s good management. However, it’s also good management to develop areas of strength for trade purposes (or to protect from injury) and as time rolls along, and balance is attained, I think we’ll see some attention paid here.

  • Skill LW: Anton Slepyshev, Josh Winquist (minor league deal)
  • Skill RW: Andrew Miller
  • Two-Way LW: Ryan Hamilton
  • Two-Way RW: Tyler Pitlick, Iiro Pakarinen, Greg Chase
  • Luke Gazdic: Mitch Moroz, Kale Kessy

There are no top 10 picks on this list but there are some talented hockey players. Oilers fans can watch Slepyshev, Winquist, Pakarinen and Chase closely this season, all have a chance (imo) to emerge as legit NHL talents. The value of having a Slepyshev pop (“pop” isn’t a word I heard used until Chiarelli, is it a new reference?) is huge. It’s also a reason none of us should be the least surprised if the Oilers quietly sign some more Winquist/Holmberg types this summer on AHL deals.

One final item here: Chase is listed under two-way winger but he has enough skill to play higher on the depth chart. Among the bubbling under group, he along with the Russian Slepyshev have (imo) the best chance to have real sustain with the elite group of Edmonton forwards. Even one of these players emerging could be huge summer 2018.

tkachev young stars

TKACHEV?

Silence about him, no draft for the Russian and no word at all about the future. He was born October 5, 1995 and I’m uncertain about his status. IS he a free agent? OR does he qualify for the 2016 draft because of his October birthday? Either way, he would be a nice addition to the ‘skill winger’ portion of the team’s depth chart.

BUTTON LOVES THE DRAFT

I posted an ISS look at the Oilers draft the other day and continue the series here with Craig Button’s view. Button is a divisive figure for many, this blog’s comments have been very punishing in the past while the blog’s author respects his view. Button’s list is not meant to predict the draft (as Bob McKenzie’s does) or rely on consensus, it’s Button’s view alone. Like Red Line report, it’s a (free) independent look from a man who had real and quantifiable success in the position of scouting director once upon a time. Here’s how he ranked the Oilers picks:

  • No. 1 overall: Connor McDavid. Button had him No. 1. “Two words; unprecedented speed. Skating speed, hand quickness and mental processing that he executes simultaneously to threaten defenders and create opportunities. He would be the first pick at every draft since Sidney Crosby in 2005, perhaps even in Crosby’s draft year.”
  • No. 117 overall: Caleb Jones. Button had him No. 81.
  • No. 124 overall: Ethan Bear. Button had him No. 77. “There is a lot of ability in his game to impact the game in a positive way. He gets where he needs to be, he never gets himself in trouble. He’s a body-on-body one-on-one competitor. If you want to play against him in the defensive zone, you’ll have to earn everything you get. He can get the puck out of the zone well, he knows what his options are, doesn’t get himself into trouble. Smart player.”
  • No. 209 overall: Ziyat Paigin. Button had him No. 86

SCHULTZ

Today is the deadline for Justin Schultz to file for arbitration. He’s a special case because of his first contract and a difficult player to marry cap to value. Schultz as a third pairing blue and PP specialist—the MA Bergeron role—may in fact be a valuable player. How much do you pay for that? The Washington Capitals just sent away Mike Green because they didn’t want to pay $6M for that slot in their batting order.

The difficulty for me is how he was used last season. Edmonton spent much of it chasing the game, so Schultz received monumental minutes many nights. His boxcars might get him a significant raise in arbitration and leave Edmonton with a player whose trade value and actual value are miles behind his actual cap cost.

 

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

198 Responses to "WING AND A PRAYER"

  1. Ben says:

    Does that mean the Oilers can file to take Jultz to arb tomorrow?

  2. Woodguy says:

    Ben:
    Does that mean the Oilers can file to take Jultz to arb tomorrow?

    Yes

    12.4.b

    b) A Club electing salary arbitration pursuant to Section 12.3(b) above must do so by
    making a written request, in accordance with Exhibit 3 hereto, utilizing the form attached hereto
    as Exhibit 22, to the parties listed in Section (c) below, during the period commencing upon the
    Player’s deadline to select salary arbitration and continuing for 24 hours thereafter (i.e.,
    commencing July 5 at 5:00 p.m. New York time and ending July 6 at 5:00 p.m. New York time).

  3. Woodguy says:

    Ben:
    Does that mean the Oilers can file to take Jultz to arb tomorrow?

    Here’s the conditions that must be present for the Oilers to be able to take Schultz to arb:

    12.3

    (b) Club-Elected Salary Arbitration For Players Who Receive Qualifying Offers.

    (i) If a Group 2 Restricted Free Agent has not accepted his Club’s Qualifying
    Offer, nor filed a request for Player-elected salary arbitration in
    accordance with Section 12.2 above, the Club may elect to file for salary
    arbitration to determine that Player’s Paragraph 1 Salary for that League Year

    (ii) If a Club elects salary arbitration in accordance with this subsection, the
    Club’s offer in salary arbitration must be equal to or higher than the
    Player’s aggregate Paragraph 1 Salary plus Signing, Reporting and Roster
    Bonuses in the final League Year of the Player’s SPC.

  4. Gret99zky says:

    listed at 5’10”-144lbs

    too small

    no to Tkachev.

    There must be better options.

  5. Woogie63 says:

    I would sign Shultz for 3 years at $3.7M, if he turns into a player, the contract is great value. If he improves and scores 40 points, you have an asset you can trade.

  6. 36 percent body fat says:

    Gret99zky,

    there are definitely better options, but your point being that he is small is irrelevant. Sign the best players out there, not the biggest who can’t skate,

  7. nhark73 says:

    I like buttons take. A 4th 5th and 6th for 3 3rds. I’ll take it!!

    As for Schultz, if he asks for more $ and takes away from cap space it will leave a bad taste in fans mouth. His play is valued at less than 2 mil if you ask me

  8. Woogie63 says:

    LT were you surprized at the published list of Oilers management. The key people advising PC will be,

    MacT, Howson, Green and Scott. This is the same guys who got us in this mess.

    Nicholson has great talent on his team

    Todd has great talent on his team

    PC not so much

  9. oliveoilers says:

    “The difficulty for me is how he was used last season. Edmonton spent much of it chasing the game, so Schultz received monumental minutes many nights.”

    LT, to us, that’s the reason; we’re behind, play our best offensive D. However, is it possible the Oilers didn’t think this way at all and played him because of his Norris potential, hoping he’ll come good?

    It could be seen that this also did not allow any other D to show any offensive chops as Jultz was hogging it all. Thus, the sideburns start to grow, as they really didn’t understand how to properly deploy the players they had and blamed the player, not the game.

    Stubborn, stubborn MacT.

  10. Lowetide says:

    Gret99zky:
    listed at 5’10”-144lbs

    too small

    no to Tkachev.

    There must be better options.

    One of those options (Soy) is in Oilers camp now. If I’m a betting man, the guy with the best chance to get signed is the hulking blue Leveille.

  11. Ben says:

    Woodguy,

    thx!

    And, because I’m too lazy to google – when would this mythical 2nd buyout window / wormhole to Omsk open up?

  12. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    nhark73,

    Woogie63,

    A three year deal would take Schultz to UFA. That’s not a good idea here.

    Less than $2m? That’s hyperbole. Last summer I suggested using Subban as a template, which is more than generous to Schultz. 2 x 2.5m was the right call, especially as the player had no arb rights. But Mact Norris’d that negotiation.

    Now the Oilers are stuck paying the wrong price. Taking him to arb for what amounts to a max pay cut of 15% likely isn’t worth all the bad blood.

    To me the only real options are: 1x qualifying offer. 2 x 3.5m. He wants more than that, it’s trade him.

  13. Магия 10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: To me the only real options are: 1x qualifying offer. 2 x 3.5m. He wants more than that, it’s trade him

    Other scenario is 19 fIles for arb and team can walk.

  14. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Магия 10,

    I don’t think that’s realistic. He is still worth something. Why give him away for free.

  15. Richard S.S. says:

    In Baseball, good Left-Handed Pitching is hard to find while Right-Handers are everywhere. The Oilers have trouble finding good Right-Handed Shots, but everywhere you look there’s a Left-Hander. Is this an Oiler tendency/preference, or is it a bigger issue NHL-wide?

  16. Woodguy says:

    Ben:
    Woodguy,

    thx!

    And, because I’m too lazy to google – when would this mythical 2nd buyout window / wormhole to Omsk open up?

    No, you need two arbs to re-open the buyout period.

  17. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Richard S.S.,

    Bigger issue NHL wide.

    The two most coveted positions are a right handed top flight C and top pair D. They are hard to find.

  18. Lowetide says:

    Richard S.S.:
    In Baseball, good Left-Handed Pitching is hard to find while Right-Handers are everywhere.The Oilers have trouble finding good Right-Handed Shots, but everywhere you look there’s a Left-Hander.Is this an Oiler tendency/preference, or is it a bigger issue NHL-wide?

    Always more lefties, the Americans are helping because they seem to have more righties. It’s been an issue since I was a kid, Habs had lefties up the ying yang when I was a kid, every damn one of them a Hall of Famer.

  19. frjohnk says:

    If guys like Yak, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse, Reinhart, Lander are signed to 3.5M to 5M for 7 long term contracts, ( if they all become top 9 forwards/ top 4 D) and we can fill the rest of the roster with depth players making around 1M, I think we could keep most of the core intact.

    We will need value contracts with the core and depth players.
    Maybe something like ( Im just spitballing here)

    Lander 3.5M for 5 years
    Draisaitl 4.5 for 6 years
    Yak 4.5M for 6 years
    Klefbom 4M for 7 years
    Nurse 5M for 8 years
    Reinhart 3.5M for 6 years
    McDavid is probably gonna get 9.7M for 8 years

    Trying to stagger the UFA years for the core will also be key, as the team would not want to have 3 guys UFA in the same year.

    ………………….16-17..17-18..18-19..19-20..20-21..21-22..22-23..23-24..24-25

    Taylor Hall……..6.0…….6.0……6.0…….6.0…..ufa
    Jordan Eberle…6.0…….6.0……6.0…….ufa
    RNH………………6.0…….6.0……6.0…….6.0…..6.0…..ufa
    Benoit Pouliot….4.0……4.0……4.0……..ufa
    Nail Yakupov…..2.5…….4.5…..4.5…….4.5…..4.5……4.5….ufa
    Connor ………….3.7…….3.7……9.7…….9.7…..9.7……9.7….9.7 …….9.7……9.7…….9.7
    Leon Draisaitl….0.9…….4.5…..4.5……..4.5…..4.5……4.5….4.5…….4.5……ufa
    Anton Lander….0.9…….3.5……3.5…….3.5……3.5…..3.5…..3.5…….ufa
    TOTAL…………30.0……38.2…44.2……34.2….28.2….22.2..17.7…..14.2…..9.7……9.7

    Andrej Sekera…5.5……5.5…….5.5……5.5…..5.5….UFA
    Oscar Klefbom .4.0…….4.0…….4.0……4.0…….4.0…..4.0….4.0……ufa
    Griffin Reinhart.0.9…….3.5……3.5…….3.5…….3.5…..3.5….ufa
    Darnell Nurse…0.9…….0.9…….5.0……5.0…….5.0…..5.0….5.0……5.0…….5.0…….ufa
    TOTAL………….11.3….13.9…..18.0….18.0…..12.5….12.5…5.0…..5.0

    The 18-19 year has all top 8 forwards and top 4 D signed to long term contracts. That is 13 players signed for 62M. Would the salary cap be at 80 to 85M by then? If so that means we have 18M to 23M for 9 players. 1 which would be a starting goalie. Definitely would need the depth D and 4th line forwards at small cap hits. Like 1M per player per year. If the cap is on the low end, 1 of the core players might have to be traded.

    It would not be easy to keep everyone as a lot of things would have to fall into place. Salary cap would have to increase. Management would have to make some bets that players will turn out to be really good players. IE. Signing Nurse and Reinhart in the next 12-18 months in anticipation that they will be good top 4 D men. AND NO BAD CONTRACTS FOR OLDER PLAYERS AND/OR DEPTH PLAYERS.

    The 19-20 season is the start of the first core going to UFA, if this team has contended for the CUP and the first core feels they are close, these guys may not feel like they need to hit a home run in free agency and could possibly sign a cap friendly deal. For example, by 19-20, Eberle will have near 40M in career earnings, he might feel winning is more important than a big payday.

    Itd be great to have a perennial powerhouse for the rest of McDavids career, lets see how long the oilers can keep the majority of the core together.

  20. Магия 10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Магия 10,

    I don’t think that’s realistic. He is still worth something. Why give him away for free.

    That depends on the odds of the Oilers not having to walk from the player’s ask. Odds are framed at this point on what player has been asking for and their own appetite for player.

  21. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    frjohnk,

    Sekera is missing one year on your list.

  22. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Магия 10,

    But they don’t have to. Schultz can ask for 8m if he wants. Doesn’t mean the arbitrator will give it. If Schultz files for arbitration, the Oilers can go for 3.4m, lower than last year, and they may well win.

    What I mean is, they don’t have to pay the player’s ask in arbitration necessarily. They could walk away from a high award, but I don’t see this as a realistic scenario.

    They may trade him before the arb date if they think they may lose an arb case. But I don’t see Schultz getting 6m as a likely scenario, where the Oilers then walk away.

    I stand by my two most realistic scenarios: QO for one year, earn your big payday. 2-year bridge. 3+ years takes him to UFA and I don’t see that as likely at this time unless Chia is listening to MacT

  23. Bryan says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    nhark73,

    Woogie63,

    A three year deal would take Schultz to UFA. That’s not a good idea here.

    Less than $2m? That’s hyperbole. Last summer I suggested using Subban as a template, which is more than generous to Schultz. 2 x 2.5m was the right call, especially as the player had no arb rights. But Mact Norris’d that negotiation.

    Now the Oilers are stuck paying the wrong price. Taking him to arb for what amounts to a max pay cut of 15% likely isn’t worth all the bad blood.

    To me the only real options are: 1x qualifying offer. 2 x 3.5m. He wants more than that, it’s trade him.

    This seems like the most reasonable approach for me as well. It is obviously an overpay at the moment but it gives Justin one more year to show that he wants to be an Oiler and if it doesn’t work out it gives Chia some time to leverage a decent return for him.

  24. frjohnk says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    frjohnk,

    Sekera is missing one year on your list.

    fixed

  25. Магия 10 says:

    This interesting comp analysis posted at the very end of the june 28 shultz post:

    Bling:
    Here’s a more complete list of comparable players to Schultz over the past 2 seasons.

    I looked at the Vollman Sledgehammer for players who fulfilled the following criteria:

    A) GP>50
    B) Similar usage to Schultz in 14/15
    C) Blue Bubble (postive CORSI ON, between 0 and 4).

    *** Schultz was basically at the border of the bottom and top right handed quadrants (“sheltered” and “2-way”)

    Here’s who I found, CORSI ON in brackets.

    13/14:

    Ryan Ellis (0.1)
    Tyson Barrie (1.9)
    Hampus Lindolm (2.4)
    Ryan Murray (2.8)
    Thomas Hickey (2.0)
    Gudbranson (1.5)
    Keith Yandle (3.2)
    Oli Maata (1.5)
    Mark Streit (2.9)
    Eric Brewer (0.6)
    Dmitri Orlov (0.6)

    2014/2015:

    Clayton Stoner (2.7)
    Marek Zidlicky (1.0)
    Luke Schenn (0.7)
    Mark Streit (1.5)
    Rob Scuderi (1.5)

    My takeaways:

    Some decent players on that list, better than I expected.

    Let’s see how the players in 13/14 did in 14/15:

    Player // CORSI ON 13/14 // CORSI ON 14/15

    Ryan Ellis (0.1, 11.7)
    Barrie (1.9, -8.9)
    Lindholm (2.4, 2.8 ***shut down quadrant now, big step forward for this player)
    Ryan Murray (2.8, 0) *** only played 10 games.
    Thomas Hickey (2.0, 5.0)
    Gudbranson (1.5, -1.7 ***shut down quadrant)
    Keith Yandle (3.2, -0.5)
    Oli Maata (1.5, 1.9, ***2 way quadrant)
    Mark Streit (2.9, 1.5)
    Eric Brewer (0.6, -12 ***shut down quadrant)
    Dmitri Orlov (0.6) , not in NHL)

    CONCLUSIONS:

    1) There’s some decent players on this list. I think some good comps for Schultz are Ellis, Barrie, Hickey, Yandle, and Mark Streit. I’d take all of them on my team.
    2) Ellis took a gigantic step forward in his age 23 season, proving that with D, you never really know if/when that will ever happen. Lindholm is a better breed and did it at 21. Olli Maata also got better, but SSS. Gudbranson got better as well, being given worse zone starts and harder competition and almost coming out even. All these guys played on good teams, eh.
    3) Context matters. I don’t think Tyson Barrie forgot how to play hockey while putting up 53 points — I think his team stinks.
    4) Interesting and terrifying fact: over the last four seasons, here is the list of Oiler D with a blue bubble (positive CORSI ON):

    Schultz and Klef (both last season, the latter just barely).

    Schultz actually got better last season.

    I think he’s a good candidate to pull a Ryan Ellis if deployed in a similar fashion this season.

    With all his warts, Schultz is a legit top 4 D — albeit flawed — and now isn’t the time to trade him.

  26. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Магия 10,

    Oh, you should know by now I am strongly in favour of not trading him and giving him the QO for one year. I loathed that contract last summer and had many an epic rant about MacT . But I don’t want to trade the guy. He has to work harder this summer on something other than golf in Kelowna though and I think he will do it. I think he realizes now what he needs to do.

  27. Lowetide says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Магия 10,

    Oh, you should know by now I am strongly in favour of not trading him and giving him the QO for one year. I loathed that contract last summer and had many an epic rant about MacT . But I don’t want to trade the guy. He has to work harder this summer on something other than golf in Kelowna though and I think he will do it. I think he realizes now what he needs to do.

    I also think he’ll find McLellan a breath of fresh air. He looked for all the world like a guy inside his own head, suspect McLellan will make things very simple, back off the silly TOI totals and give him some cover with a veteran partner. Nikitin should be that guy, but he looked immobile last season so one just doesn’t know. If Klefbom were 24……

  28. Halfwise says:

    frjohnk,

    What are the drivers for the cap going up vs staying level? Inflation, mostly. The USD vs C$ exchange rate could offset inflation if the C$ drops further. A rise in the price of oil would strengthen the C$ but could tip the US economy back into recession.

    No one knows, especially this random investor and market watcher, but there are as many scenarios for a flat cap as there are for a much higher one. Maybe the working assumption ought to be to maximize points per dollar in the next three years and look at any rising cap as a short term opportunity rather than a new baseline.

  29. Bryan says:

    frjohnk:
    If guys like Yak, Draisaitl, Klefbom, Nurse, Reinhart, Lander are signed to 3.5M to 5M for 7 long term contracts, ( if they all become top 9 forwards/ top 4 D)and we can fill the rest of the roster with depth players making around 1M, I think we could keep most of the core intact.

    We will need value contracts with the core and depth players.
    Maybe something like ( Im just spitballing here)

    Lander 3.5M for 5 years
    Draisaitl 4.5 for 6 years
    Yak 4.5M for 6 years
    Klefbom 4M for 7 years
    Nurse 5M for 8 years
    Reinhart 3.5M for 6 years
    McDavid is probably gonna get 9.7M for 8 years

    Trying to stagger the UFA years for the core will also be key, as the team would not want to have 3 guys UFA in the same year.

    ………………….16-17..17-18..18-19..19-20..20-21..21-22..22-23..23-24..24-25

    Taylor Hall……..6.0…….6.0……6.0…….6.0…..ufa
    Jordan Eberle…6.0…….6.0……6.0…….ufa
    RNH………………6.0…….6.0……6.0…….6.0…..6.0…..ufa
    Benoit Pouliot….4.0……4.0……4.0……..ufa
    Nail Yakupov…..2.5…….4.5…..4.5…….4.5…..4.5……4.5….ufa
    Connor ………….3.7…….3.7……9.7…….9.7…..9.7……9.7….9.7…….9.7……9.7…….9.7
    Leon Draisaitl….0.9…….4.5…..4.5……..4.5…..4.5……4.5….4.5…….4.5……ufa
    Anton Lander….0.9…….3.5……3.5…….3.5……3.5…..3.5…..3.5…….ufa
    TOTAL…………30.0……38.2…44.2……34.2….28.2….22.2..17.7…..14.2…..9.7……9.7

    Andrej Sekera…5.5……5.5…….5.5……5.5…..5.5….UFA
    Oscar Klefbom.4.0…….4.0…….4.0……4.0…….4.0…..4.0….4.0……ufa
    Griffin Reinhart.0.9…….3.5……3.5…….3.5…….3.5…..3.5….ufa
    Darnell Nurse…0.9…….0.9…….5.0……5.0…….5.0…..5.0….5.0……5.0…….5.0…….ufa
    TOTAL………….11.3….13.9…..18.0….18.0…..12.5….12.5…5.0…..5.0

    The 18-19 year has all top 8 forwards and top 4 D signed to long term contracts.That is 13 players signed for 62M.Would the salary cap be at 80 to 85M by then?If so that means we have 18M to 23M for 9 players.1 which would be a starting goalie.Definitely would need the depth D and 4th line forwards at small cap hits.Like 1M per player per year. If the cap is on the low end, 1 of the core players might have to be traded.

    It would not be easy to keep everyone as a lot of things would have to fall into place.Salary cap would have to increase.Management would have to make some bets that players will turn out to be really good players.IE. Signing Nurse and Reinhart in the next 12-18 months in anticipation that they will be good top 4 D men. AND NO BAD CONTRACTS FOR OLDER PLAYERS AND/OR DEPTH PLAYERS.

    The 19-20 season is the start of the first core going to UFA, if this team has contended for the CUP and the first core feels they are close, these guys may not feel like they need to hit a home run in free agency and could possibly sign a cap friendly deal.For example, by 19-20, Eberle will have near 40M in career earnings, he might feel winning is more important than a big payday.

    Itd be great to have a perennial powerhouse for the rest of McDavids career, lets see how long the oilers can keep the majority of the core together.

    Very nice analysis. The only fly in the ointment is likely to be the defence. I can see another defenceman being added to that group at some point who is at least in the 5 to 6 mil range. This will mean the loss of one of the forwards to balance the budget. The only way around that will be if some of the young dmen come on like gangbusters and play at a high level for cheap. That is probably too much to hope for.

  30. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide: I also think he’ll find McLellan a breath of fresh air. He looked for all the world like a guy inside his own head, suspect McLellan will make things very simple, back off the silly TOI totals and give him some cover with a veteran partner. Nikitin should be that guy, but he looked immobile last season so one just doesn’t know. If Klefbom were 24……

    I agree with that. To me, this may be what Chia may have been hinting at when he mentioned Sekera could play a bit of top pairing.

    To start the games run Sekera-Schultz for O-Zone deployment, Klef-Fayne for shutdown. Late and protecting a lead, you can put Sekera-Fayne out. There’s some flexibility there.

  31. Richard S.S. says:

    I’m trying to put things into context. In arbitration in Baseball, the Team’s representative gives one figure while Player’s representative gives the second figure. The Arbitrator chooses one or the other figure. In Hockey, is it similar or does an arbitrator get creative?

  32. Adam Wu says:

    Woogie63:
    LT were you surprized at the published list of Oilers management.The key people advising PC will be,

    MacT, Howson, Green and Scott.This is the same guys who got us in this mess.

    Nicholson has great talent on his team

    Todd has great talent on his team

    PC not so much

    Green is widely acknowledged as one of the best at his job.

    MacT in his tenure demonstrated significant ability at several important aspects of a GM’s job, with huge weaknesses in others. As the GM of a team in desperate need of a retooling of the D, this meant failure for him. Had he been a GM with a team that already had an established D, that needed retooling of the forwards to take it to the next level, he very likely would have succeeded. As an advisor to a GM he has the potential to be very useful, provided his boss knows which areas of strength to listen to him, and which areas of weakness to ignore him.

    Howson seems to me the weakest link. He had an established track record that was never stellar, and one of the teams biggest and most obvious mistakes falls at his feet.

  33. Магия 10 says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker": I stand by my two most realistic scenarios: QO for one year, earn your big payday. 2-year bridge. 3+ years takes him to UFA and I don’t see that as likely at this time unless Chia is listening to MacT

    Thanks. Thought you meant something else.

  34. Bryan says:

    Chicago won the cup this year with basically four defensemen but they had the hockey gords with them. The Finn and the Swede took a crazy pounding and kept coming back for more. It also helps when you have a guy like Keith who can play 30 minutes a night at a high level. I can easily see Nurse developing into a huge minute muncher as well and if that happens it changes the needs of the defence considerably.

  35. Магия 10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: But I don’t want to trade the guy.

    Just realized trading him wlll be off the table if either side files

    http://www.wingingitinmotown.com/2013/7/12/4514168/cba-arbitration-boolsheet

    Teams may not trade players who are pending an arbitration hearing

  36. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bryan,

    Do you mean Hjalmarsson and Oduya? Both Swedes.

  37. frjohnk says:

    Halfwise:
    frjohnk,

    What are the drivers for the cap going up vs staying level? Inflation, mostly. The USD vs C$ exchange rate could offset inflation if the C$ drops further. A rise in the price of oil would strengthen the C$ but could tip the US economy back into recession.

    No one knows, especially this random investor and market watcher, but there are as many scenarios for a flat cap as there are for a much higher one. Maybe the working assumption ought to be to maximize points per dollar in the next three years and look at any rising cap as a short term opportunity rather than a new baseline.

    Part of the rise will be inflation, which, like you say could be offset by the decline in the Canadian dollar. But revenues from the Rogers deal start at 300M per year and rise incremently to 500M at the end of the deal, so I would expect the cap to rise every year.

    If in a few years, the Can $ increased, we could see a decent jump in the cap.

  38. Adam Wu says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: I agree with that. To me, this may be what Chia may have been hinting at when he mentioned Sekera could play a bit of top pairing.

    To start the games run Sekera-Schultz for O-Zone deployment, Klef-Fayne for shutdown. Late and protecting a lead, you can put Sekera-Fayne out. There’s some flexibility there.

    Sekera would make an excellent mentor for Schultz, and Klef-Fayne need not be solely shutdown, since Klef has some offensive upside that he never had the opportunity to use while holding Schultz’ bag, but would be free to express with Fayne backing him up.

  39. godot10 says:

    Khaira and Yakimov are also likely to end up on wing, considering Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, Lander, and Draisaitl.

    Centres can always move over.

  40. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Магия 10,

    Yeah. Oilers extended him a QO already, so up to Schultz to file today or not. They can keep negotiating, of course. Last year only Sobotka award handed down. Subban settled last minute. It would be unusual.

    So QO for one year if Schultz wants to prove himself, or a 2-year deal if he wants more security seem the two realistic scenarios. 3 takes him to UFA and can’t see the Oilers making a longer term commitment at big dollars now.

  41. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Adam Wu: Sekera would make an excellent mentor for Schultz, and Klef-Fayne need not be solely shutdown, since Klef has some offensive upside that he never had the opportunity to use while holding Schultz’ bag, but would be free to express with Fayne backing him up.

    Agreed. Also, if you look at McLellan’s deployment patterns in San Jose, he had a shut down pair in Vlasic and Braun. That’s why I see this as a likelihood.

  42. Oil2Oilers says:

    Schultz + 2016 1st round pick for Adam Larsson

    NJ get better offense, Edmonton the better player.

    Sekera-Fayne
    Klefbom-Larsson
    Reinhart-Gyrba

    Nurse in the AHL until Gyrba’s inevitable suspension, with Reinhart moving over to the right side.

    Defense would still be to young this year but the future arguments would be not about if the Oilers have a top pair but who the Oilers to pair is.

  43. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Oil2Oilers,

    And New Jersey hangs up the phone.

  44. Bryan says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Bryan,

    Do you mean Hjalmarsson and Oduya? Both Swedes.

    My mistake. I thought Hjalmarsson was a Finn for some reason. In any case they took an unbelievable amount of punishment and carried on. It looked like Oduya played much of the final with one arm. If Chicago had lost one of their four top d early in the finals it would have been very problematic for them. Not many Cup winners are able to accomplish the task with such poor depth on the back end.

  45. oliveoilers says:

    Oil2Oilers: Schultz + 2016 1st round pick for Adam Larsson

    Sorry bro or sis, it’s a nice thought but no way it happens while I have a hole in my arse.

    NJ like Larsson too and can google Jultz as well as the next scout.

  46. RexLibris says:

    Kent Wilson has an interesting take on Franson for the Flames.

    http://flamesnation.ca/2015/7/4/should-the-flames-try-to-sign-cody-franson

    An excerpt: His quantitative results are fare less equivocal, however. Franson has been a positive possession player since he broke in to the league. in addition, he’s one of the best even strength scoring defenders in NHL, frequently managing around 1.0 points/60 minutes of ice. To put that in context, Mark Giordano and Erik Karlsson scored 1.18 and 1.16 points/60 at ES last year, respectively.

    I still like Ehrhoff for the Oilers, and they would still need to divest themselves of Ference, but finding a way to replace Schultz with Franson could be a very good thing, as Martha would say.

  47. LoDog says:

    frjohnk,

    Really like lander but he would need one hell of a jump this year to be worth anywhere near that contract.

  48. Pouzar says:

    RexLibris: I still like Ehrhoff for the Oilers, and they would still need to divest themselves of Ference, but finding a way to replace Schultz with Franson could be a very good thing, as Martha would say.

    Is this reason that FA has grinded to a halt? Teams looking to free up $$ to sign the next wave of FAs?
    If Chia can unload Ference and sign Ehrhoff…wow…..just think of ‘The Hoff” puns!

  49. Магия 10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: So QO for one year if Schultz wants to prove himself, or a 2-year deal if he wants more security seem the two realistic scenarios.

    Agreed. That’s the most likely out of the remaining options:

    19 files – qo or deal or award
    club files – qo or deal or award or walk
    No filing – qo or deal or rights traded

  50. wheatnoil says:

    Maybe one of the reasons the Oilers don’t buy out Nikitin is they want to buy out Ference next year and don’t want both their cap hits on the books. (Buying out Ference this year pushes the buyout cost past McDavid’s ELC)

  51. speeds says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    nhark73,

    Woogie63,

    Now the Oilers are stuck paying the wrong price. Taking him to arb for what amounts to a max pay cut of 15% likely isn’t worth all the bad blood.

    To me the only real options are: 1x qualifying offer. 2 x 3.5m. He wants more than that, it’s trade him.

    The sentence limiting the award minimum to 85% of the previous year’s salary only seems to refer to Article 12.3.a. If Schultz elects for arbitration, or if the Oilers take Schultz to arbitration in their 24 hour window over the next couple days, that would be under Article 12.2 and 12.3.b, respectively.

  52. wheatnoil says:

    godot10:
    Khaira and Yakimov are also likely to end up on wing, considering Nugent-Hopkins, McDavid, Lander, and Draisaitl.

    Centres can always move over.

    This is a very good point. As has been discussed before, Chiarelli may also be looking at Draisaitl as a skilled winger for at least year 1.

    There’s lots of options for the wing at the moment and in the intermediate future.

  53. book¡je says:

    Woogie63:
    I would sign Shultz for 3 years at $3.7M, if he turns into a player, the contract is great value.If he improves and scores 40 points, you have an asset you can trade.

    I am going to sell my house and buy powerball lotto tickets with the money. If I win first place, I have well over $100 million and am rich for life. If I win second prize, I get $2 million and still do well.

    Really, it seems foolproof.

  54. wheatnoil says:

    book¡je: I am going to sell my house and buy powerball lotto tickets with the money.If I win first place, I have well over $100 million and am rich for life.If I win second prize, I get $2 million and still do well.

    Really, it seems foolproof.

    I’LL PAY YOU 2 MILLION DOLLARS FOR THOSE TICKETS!!

  55. Bryan says:

    wheatnoil:
    Maybe one of the reasons the Oilers don’t buy out Nikitin is they want to buy out Ference next year and don’t want both their cap hits on the books. (Buying out Ference this year pushes the buyout cost past McDavid’s ELC)

    I think the best they can hope for is to find someone to take Nikitin at half price this year and then make do with Ferrence for one more year before a buy out. The only other hope would be if they can find a landing spot for Ferrence that he would be agreeable to but that seems unlikely given his NMC and his desire to raise his children in Edmonton. If one of these moves is possible then Erhoff on a short term contract looks very attractive.

  56. Bryan says:

    wheatnoil: This is a very good point. As has been discussed before, Chiarelli may also be looking at Draisaitl as a skilled winger for at least year 1.

    There’s lots of options for the wing at the moment and in the intermediate future.

    If Yakimov and Draisaitl pan out on wing the Oilers are suddenly not looking so small anymore.

  57. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    With LT’s policy, I won’t link to it, but Rob Vollman has an article on why paying big money to goalies is a bad idea on espn’s insider pay wall page.

  58. wheatnoil says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    With LT’s policy, I won’t link to it, but Rob Gillman has an article on why paying big money to goalies is a bad idea on espn’s insider pay wall page.

    How do you find the ESPN insider stuff? I thought about subscribing but I’m really only interested in hockey and have mostly been interested in reading more Pronman. Do you find the other hockey content valuable (other than this article, obviously)?

  59. Thor762 says:

    Maybe Gryba was brought in by PC as a hitman to come into practice and KO Nikitin, aka the Double Agent, like Eller and take out Ference’s knee, like he did to Hall.

    LTIR doesn’t count against the cap right?

    Also, I may have been out in the sun too long yesterday.

  60. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    wheatnoil,

    I used to subscribe, but no longer do. The hockey stuff isn’t great outside Pronman and now Vollman.
    Baseball stuff is solid and if you’re into it worth the fee.

  61. Younger Oil says:

    Thor762:
    Maybe Gryba was brought in by PC as a hitman to come into practice and KO Nikitin, aka the Double Agent, like Eller and take out Ference’s knee, like he did to Hall.

    LTIR doesn’t count against the cap right?

    Also, I may have been out in the sun too long yesterday.

    If that was the plan, we would have invited Kirill Tulupov to camp!

  62. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    On an unrelated note, the crude oil chart, after failing at $60 resistance following a three month struggle, looks to have broken down again. Possible retest of the spring lows coming, especially if risk appetite continues to wane over the summer due to Greece and general doldrums. Keep an eye on that Canadian dollar again.

  63. wheatnoil says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    On an unrelated note, the crude oil chart, after failing at $60 resistance following a three month struggle, looks to have broken down again. Possible retest of the spring lows coming, especially if risk appetite continues to wane over the summer due to Greece and general doldrums. Keep an eye on that Canadian dollar again.

    With Nikitin, Purcell and Scrivens coming off the books and only Klef and potentially Talbot to sign, the Oilers should be in an okay spot if the cap stays low for another year.

    Calgary may be in tough with a lot of resignings due.

  64. Lois Lowe says:

    I think a lot will depend on who fills out the associate coach position for the defence. Larry Robinson was the guy in San Jose and, by all accounts, is among the best in the league. When Huddy left the universal sentiment was that he was a D whisperer and still looks to be so in Winnepeg. I don’t think there’s any way Schultz gets moved this summer. Both Chia Pete and McLellan going to want to see what kind of player they’ve got to work with.

    I think an interesting wrinkle now that we haven’t discussed too much is how much Dellow has to do with player valuation. I have ZERO evidence or knowledge of the org structure, but I suspect that Chia Pete moved him from the coaching staff to the management staff because he understands the value of Dellow’s work in contract negotiations and acquisition targeting. The Sloan Analytics Conference is at MIT, it stands to reason that Chia may be ahead of the curve in his conceptual understanding of and implementation of advanced stats due to simple proximity. I’m sure being a a Harvard alum also has some privileges as well, those Ivy Leaguers are a networked bunch.

    My *ahem* narrative about the sequence of events is something like this: when Tyler was first hired by Eakins, management still weren’t fully on board with analytics conceptually so Eakins got his way. They’d hired Parkatti out of due diligence but were probably still resistant to applying the principles. I’m going to assume that the vast majority of ex-players now in management have, at most, high school math and have never been taught basic stats.

    As this very community demonstrates, one can learn stats without formal education (I almost failed Math 30) but it takes considerable time and effort. The kind of time and effort that NHL management teams might not have. I think we, as basement dwelling spreadsheet nerds, also still VASTLY underestimate the resistance of ‘hockey men’ to embrace counterintuitive conclusions based on numbers completely over their heads. Especially since it calls into question the self-evident truth of sW-him-good built up over a lifetime of close observation, I’ll admit that would be an extremely difficult thing for anyone though. Combine that with an overvaluation of gritensity, physical intimidation, ‘clutch’, eyeglow/60, and advanced body language interpretation.

    The net result is very familiar to us because we have been observing it for years too. Hockey men making abhorrent bets based on unsustainable numbers or heavily weighted non-factors. The league is changing, but it’s happening much more slowly than we realize. The prominence of Kyle Dubas’ role in Toronto is really the first example of a new-school (think Theo Epstein in Boston) hiring.

  65. blainer says:

    oliveoilers:
    “The difficulty for me is how he was used last season. Edmonton spent much of it chasing the game, so Schultz received monumental minutes many nights.”

    LT, to us, that’s the reason;we’re behind, play our best offensive D.However, is it possible the Oilers didn’t think this way at all and played him because of his Norris potential, hoping he’ll come good?

    It could be seen that this also did not allow any other D to show any offensive chops as Jultz was hogging it all.Thus, the sideburns start to grow, as they really didn’t understand how to properly deploy the players they had and blamed the player, not the game.

    Stubborn, stubborn MacT.

    This will not happen on TMc’s watch.. MacT will not be pulling the strings with this coach.. Thank Gord..

  66. RexLibris says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    On an unrelated note, the crude oil chart, after failing at $60 resistance following a three month struggle, looks to have broken down again. Possible retest of the spring lows coming, especially if risk appetite continues to wane over the summer due to Greece and general doldrums. Keep an eye on that Canadian dollar again.

    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/05/china-freezes-new-share-offers-in-bid-to-shore-up-plunging-stock-markets

    Also, early reports have the “no” side ahead early in Greek polls.

    We live in interesting times.

  67. RexLibris says:

    wheatnoil: With Nikitin, Purcell and Scrivens coming off the books and only Klef and potentially Talbot to sign, the Oilers should be in an okay spot if the cap stays low for another year.

    Calgary may be in tough with a lot of resignings due.

    Ryan Pike looks ahead on that topic. Too far into the future, I think, to be able to say anything with certainty, but interesting nonetheless.

    http://flamesnation.ca/2015/7/4/looking-ahead-at-the-potential-cap-crunch

    From my perspective, I think they move one of the D cap issues (Smid or Engelland) before it becomes a crisis.

  68. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    RexLibris: http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/jul/05/china-freezes-new-share-offers-in-bid-to-shore-up-plunging-stock-markets

    Also, early reports have the “no” side ahead early in Greek polls.

    We live in interesting times.

    Greek government encouraged Greeks to vote no to put pressure on Europe to give them yet another better deal. This time, it’s going to backfire. Too many swimming pools in Greece and people aren’t going to stand for it (look up tax evasion, Greece, and swimming pools). ECB has its credibility on the line and they won’t buckle. Greece will default, markets will drop, and I will be buying then. Greece is marginal. If Italy really drops hard on the back of it, I may look there, but otherwise, I’d be buying the good old US of A if there is a sharp correction. But only if we see 10 percent or more come out of the markets.

  69. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Problem with oil is still too much supply, Saudis happy to let the price drop, and no solidarity in OPEC, which is losing relevance by the month. Equilibrium will be found eventually but as I’ve said all along the way, I don’t believe it will be a v-shaped recovery.

  70. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    Bryan:
    It also helps when you have a guy like Keith who can play 30 minutes a night at a high level.

    This is precisely what they think GR will become, a colossal minute muncher, second tier. They already think Klef and Nurse are capable of playing the big minutes, first tier.

    Our third pair will only jump the boards in short yardage situations.

    Former management has done everything possible to convince themselves that Jultz can and will become a minute munching offensive specialist.

    Joking and judgement aside, this might already be an explicit element of their future cap management strategy.

    MOAR minutes!

    It wasn’t such a great strategy to tap your future second line center to play 28 minutes a night, but perhaps it could work on D.

  71. Bag of Pucks says:

    “One of the things we do as Oilers fans is make group decisions, adopt them as gospel and then write it in our memory banks. No real harm—we all do it, who can hold on to all info—but things get left behind that are important. ” LT

    I’ve reposted this quote from LT’s last post because I agree with the sentiment and feel that graphic evidence of it is the rapid adoption of the ‘Reinhart trade was an overpay’ meme.

    The day of the draft Gmoney made an excellent post on this topic. Unfortunately amidst the hysteria of the moment, the logic herein went under recognized and under appreciated.

    G Money

    2 – Overpay.Maybe, but not to the extent people seem to be whinging about.

    First, I don’t see how in hell a #16 gets you a former #4 (even if he was picked too high) who’s been through two years of development and is (as far as scouts say) is still tracking to be a top 4 D.It’s an overpay if that assessment is false, if Reinhart is a bust, but no one who claims so has provided a shred of evidence in support of it.It just seems to be a conclusion pulled out of thin air.

    Assuming we accept, for now, the scouting reports of a guy slated to be a Top 4 NHL D, what’s that worth?Not just 16, no way.So it has to be 16 + something.

    Should it have been 57 instead of 33?Maybe.But maybe that doesn’t make the deal go through because its not enough.

    Maybe ideally it should have been the 40th pick.But the Oilers don’t have that pick.

    So you have to choose, overpay at 16+33 or don’t make a deal at 16+57.

    Maybe folks would have preferred that.But again, that only makes sense if you disbelieve the scouting reports.The difference between the “should have been” 45 and 33 might be an overpay, but its hardly one to get your shorts in a knot about.

    The money shot in Gmoney’s analysis is based on two assumptions 1) You don’t have a inherent bias against Reinhart as a player and see him as a legitimate Top 4 NHL D with the possibility of potentially higher upside. You also recognize and appreciate the value of the player contract, age fit with the core, and development already completed. & 2) There is an opportunity cost to be considered with this transaction which is the value of filling a core need vs sitting on the sideline Tambo-style doing nothing.

    What cements it for me is not looking at a single transaction in isolation but rather what Chiarelli accomplished in total. Sentiment seems to be that #16 + #57 would have been reasonable value for Reinhart whilst #33, 79 and 184 would be fair for Talbot. Given that Chiarelli essentially accomplished this mission by combining an alleged overpay on Reinhart and an acknowledged underpay on Talbot, wtf is the problem exactly?

    For those suggesting Reinhart was an overpay, I think the burden of proof rests on you to suggest an alternate transaction that represents more equitable theoretical value. Criticism without alternative suggestion is complaining. This is a mgmt maxim that seems pertinent in this case.

    Ok, let’s assume Chia did overpay. How would you have done better?

  72. RexLibris says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    I think what we may be seeing is a gradual disintegration of the financial system developed post-Bretton Woods. I don’t recall the exact name of it but Varoufakis describes it in his book Global Minotaur as essentially a circulatory system that moves debt and production through roughly two-thirds of the world’s markets focusing principally on the United States and China, with spin-offs in Europe and the Middle East as supplementary factors. Africa largely does not figure in the process.

    The vulnerabilities of that system have become apparent and it would appear that a new model is required (nothing radical like a global socialist network) but rather something that focuses less on extractive measures and instead on more modest growth patterns that can be sustainable over the longer term.

  73. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Problem with oil is still too much supply, Saudis happy to let the price drop, and no solidarity in OPEC, which is losing relevance by the month.Equilibrium will be found eventually but as I’ve said all along the way, I don’t believe it will be a v-shaped recovery.

    I reside in Boston for much of the year but my earnings are Canadian which just sucks lately. If you had to guess where do you think the Canadian dollar will be over the next 12 months ?

  74. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    Hmm, I don’t know. I see a lot of people (including me) who feel the price was steep, but not necessarily an overpay. I’ve also argued that it doesn’t matter if Barzal becomes a bona fide #2C behind Tavares or whatever because the Oilers traded from excess (offensive centres) to address need (top 4D) and did it without touching their core.

    Of course, it’s human nature to wonder about alternate universes and we will track the prospects taken with those picks so we can do a final accounting at the end (example, Samsonov for the pick that turned into Lucic). But that’s just part of the fun.

    While I agree with your premise to an extent, I don’t see nearly the consensus that the Oilers overpaid for Reinhart (on this site, don’t know about elsewhere) that you see. I think we could argue that right now it isn’t a “value” trade where the Oilers underpaid vs. what you would expect, but I don’t see too many people saying it was an obvious overpayment.

  75. RexLibris says:

    Bag of Pucks: Ok, Chia overpaid. How would you have done better?

    Something to be considered in the Reinhart v Hamilton debate (which is where I think many of us were emotionally that day) is whether the Oilers were better off giving up 16 and 33 for Reinhart or giving up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd next year (draft order to be determined) for Hamilton.

    Is the difference between the two enough to forfeit a potential, and some would say almost inevitable, lottery pick (defined as being outside the playoff teams) for Hamilton vs a pair of picks for which we have a much more defined value for Reinhart worthwhile?

  76. thejonrmcleod says:

    I guess we all hope Button now knows what he’s talking about.

  77. geowal says:

    Richard S.S.:
    In Baseball, good Left-Handed Pitching is hard to find while Right-Handers are everywhere.The Oilers have trouble finding good Right-Handed Shots, but everywhere you look there’s a Left-Hander.Is this an Oiler tendency/preference, or is it a bigger issue NHL-wide?

    Right-handed kids (as in the writing sense, most of population) tend to shoot left if they learned to play at a very early age, as is case for many Canadians. Those who learn at a later age tend to shoot right. Check out any ‘gents league full of guys who didn’t play early hockey and you find they all shoot right. The opposite seems to be true for the left-handed.

  78. Oil2Oilers says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    My initial skepticism of the Reinhart trade was concerns over his skating. I have seen enough reports since then that his skating is not that bad. This added to Pelletier’s continued and growing role in the organization have me very happy with the trade.

    As you have pointed out he is an age appropriate top 4 D at the very least. It was a smart bet and one that could prove to be a very smart bet. The first 200 at bats may be ugly but the next 800 will be music.

  79. Woodguy says:

    blainer: I reside in Boston for much of the year but my earnings are Canadian which just sucks lately. If you had to guess where do you think the Canadian dollar will be over the next 12 months ?

    If you need $US, I would buy 6 months worth right now.

    Let’s not forget that China is also having some economic fun.

    They are about to pump $20B to prop us the stock market bubble which is collapsing and most think the $20B will evaporate in about a couple weeks.

    Futures on Oil and Materials are very low and will slump lower.

    Canadian dollar runs on Oil and Materials.

    Buy US$ now if you need it.

  80. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    blainer: I reside in Boston for much of the year but my earnings are Canadian which just sucks lately. If you had to guess where do you think the Canadian dollar will be over the next 12 months ?

    I bounce back and forth between Canada and the US and still plan to retire in Canada eventually so I have investments tied up there and I agree with you that it sucks.

    I think we’ve established a recent range that sits firmly in $1.20-$1.28, with equilibrium point around $1.25, where we are now. Problem is if oil cracks $50 again, we could see a new high above $1.28, at which point, I would think $1.33~ $1.35 is what we would be looking at. So you hope it holds $1.28. I would prepare as though to expect oil to fall and the Canadian dollar to weaken into the $1.30+ range.

    If $1.28 holds for the next year, that way I’m a happy camper, but I would prepare for it to get worse, because I think the odds are pretty high that they do.

    By the way, depending on your financial situation, there are private banks that will write you options for your earnings. For example, if you are getting paid in Canadian dollars now at $1.25 and you are worried it goes to $1.35 while you are working in the US, you can lock in your future earnings for a fee with a private bank, where they may guarantee you an exchange rate of, say $1.28. If it goes to $1.35 you are happy, the bank is not. If it stays below $1.28, the bank is happy, you are not. I’ve seen it done before for expat contracts. I don’t know if that’s an option available to you, but it does exist. I also don’t know where their market (fee percentage) would be on that, so the 3 pennies I took as a cost is strictly an example.

  81. fifthcartel says:

    It’s so weird that the Oilers might have too many centres and can put one of them on the wing. And real centers too, not the Sam Gagner kind.

  82. Bag of Pucks says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Bag of Pucks,

    Hmm, I don’t know. I see a lot of people (including me) who feel the price was steep, but not necessarily an overpay. I’ve also argued that it doesn’t matter if Barzal becomes a bona fide #2C behind Tavares or whatever because the Oilers traded from excess (offensive centres) to address need (top 4D) and did it without touching their core.

    Of course, it’s human nature to wonder about alternate universes and we will track the prospects taken with those picks so we can do a final accounting at the end (example, Samsonov for the pick that turned into Lucic). But that’s just part of the fun.

    While I agree with your premise to an extent, I don’t see nearly the consensus that the Oilers overpaid for Reinhart (on this site, don’t know about elsewhere) that you see. I think we could argue that right now it isn’t a “value” trade where the Oilers underpaid vs. what you would expect, but I don’t see too many people saying it was an obvious overpayment.

    Happy to hear that ‘overpay’ is not becoming the consensus position.

  83. Gordies Elbow says:

    geowal: Right-handed kids (as in the writing sense, most of population) tend to shoot left if they learned to play at a very early age, as is case for many Canadians. Those who learn at a later age tend to shoot right. Check out any ‘gents league full of guys who didn’t play early hockey and you find they all shoot right. The opposite seems to be true for the left-handed.

    Last season 115 out of 307 defensemen were right handed (37%, from NHL.com stats page) The Detroit Red wings played most of last season with an all left handed defense corps.

    Edmonton has Fayne, Schultz, and Gryba who are right handed, and Sekera, Klefbom, Reinhart, and Ference who have experience playing on the right side.

  84. Doug McLachlan says:

    Through keen foresight by MacT the troublesome defense issues can be nicely summed up with the acronym NSF. That’s some good work there.

    The faults of these three are well known so what of the positives? Sell me on why anyone else might want to take any of them off our hands?

  85. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Woodguy: If you need $US, I would buy 6 months worth right now.

    Let’s not forget that China is also having some economic fun.

    They are about to pump $20B to prop us the stock market bubble which is collapsing and most think the $20B will evaporate in about a couple weeks.

    Futures on Oil and Materials are very low and will slump lower.

    Canadian dollar runs on Oil and Materials.

    Buy US$ now if you need it.

    And this. When things look shaky, you buy US$, regardless. Things look shaky. The potential for losses on it is much smaller than on other currencies. The Canadian dollar will get obliterated if the world reacts adversely to Greece leaving the Euro and commodity prices drop. I’d rather sleep at night these days so I keep more of my assets in US$ than Canadian (some I can’t do anything about).

    If you are planning on needing US$ in the next six to twelve months, I’d buy at least half of it now.

    If the Canadian dollar weakens enough, though, I will have little choice but to move back there on a longer term basis. Either that or I hope the yen weakens just as much and then I can also move to Japan.

  86. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris: Something to be considered in the Reinhart v Hamilton debate (which is where I think many of us were emotionally that day) is whether the Oilers were better off giving up 16 and 33 for Reinhart or giving up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd next year (draft order to be determined) for Hamilton.

    Is the difference between the two enough to forfeit a potential, and some would say almost inevitable, lottery pick (defined as being outside the playoff teams) for Hamilton vs a pair of picks for which we have a much more defined value for Reinhart worthwhile?

    This assumes Sweeney would have accepted a 2016 1st, 2nd, & 3rd. They may have wanted 2015 picks and they may have wanted more from Chia. Chia’s offer was already better than Treliving’s.

  87. blainer says:

    Woodguy: If you need $US, I would buy 6 months worth right now.

    Let’s not forget that China is also having some economic fun.

    They are about to pump $20B to prop us the stock market bubble which is collapsing and most think the $20B will evaporate in about a couple weeks.

    Futures on Oil and Materials are very low and will slump lower.

    Canadian dollar runs on Oil and Materials.

    Buy US$ now if you need it.

    Ya I’ve been really struggling with that decision hoping the dollar might rebound but the news lately isn’t looking good. I am gonna wait one more week and decide .. Thanks for the input..

  88. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bag of Pucks: Happy to hear that ‘overpay’ is not becoming the consensus position.

    Yes, I avoided Day One on draft day because it just looked like mass hysteria, especially among many newer posters, so maybe I just see more balanced opinions out there than most, but I think it’s only natural that on Christmas Day, you get a little bit disappointed about trading away lots of wrapped, mystery presents for a slightly used, but awesome bicycle you wanted a couple of years ago (that’s still worth a lot).

    The old “giving up a boat for the mystery package that could be anything, perhaps even a boat,” is at play on day one. Soon, calmer heads prevail.

  89. geowal says:

    Gordies Elbow,

    Thanks for providing the numbers to supplement my anecdotes.

  90. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    blainer: Ya I’ve been really struggling with that decision hoping the dollar might rebound but the news lately isn’t looking good. I am gonna wait one more week and decide .. Thanks for the input..

    I apologize and have been negligent on my updates, but back in the spring, I did reiterate a few times that on any rebounds towards $1.20 (even at $1.22 just to be safe), I’d be buying US$ because I didn’t believe oil and the CAD would have a V-shaped recovery.

  91. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    blainer,

    I’d also add: watch carefully what currency, equity futures, CDS (credit default swaps), and oil do tonight based on the results coming from Greece.

  92. Richard S.S. says:

    We don’t know what was said between the Old and New Oilers and Nikita Nikitin and his Agent since the end of season. But that doesn’t matter. He’s just 29 and should have 4-7 more years left to earn money playing hockey and then in Broadcasting or Coaching at some level. The Oilers told him he was out of shape. He said he was in shape and had the worst year of his career. That basically crushed his further Free Agent value, and he knows it. Will he be a lot better next year? You can almost guarantee it, he wants to keep earning good money. That could be why they didn’t buy him out. He could be good enough to make a real difference. He could play well enough to earn a draft pick at Trading Time. If he sucks, he’s sent down for the balance of the year. One way or another, the Oilers are paying him for next year – might as see what they get.

  93. McSorley33 says:

    RexLibris,

    Greece…..Japan…….Puerto Rico……

    The disease of debt is rotting the modern financial system. I know too simplistic, not complex enough.

    Printing unlimited ( okay digitally creating ) unlimited amounts of currency?

    The state of Texas just passed a law to physically take storage of Gold.

    That which can’t go on forever, won’t.

  94. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    McSorley33,

    Speaking of Gold, were you aware what the UK did with theirs?

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance/thomaspascoe/100018367/revealed-why-gordon-brown-sold-britains-gold-at-a-knock-down-price/

    Edit- this isn’t about which way you lean politically, but the national wealth should be kept separately from politicians for this reason: politicians don’t know sh1t about finance and economics and should not be allowed to meddle in something with which they know nothing about.

    I hope that the Bank of Canada can maintain true independence, no matter who is in government at the time.

  95. Dee Dee says:

    I had given up on the Oilers because of their poorly run management but the turn around has really changed things.

    I was a little surprised to see Lowe and MacTavish at the draft table but I am still hoping that they are pretty much just Statler and Waldorf from the Muppets, you know the two old Hecklers sitting in the balcony seats.

    The last season was the worst one ever, from my perspective. I knew the time to stop watching was when all I heard was the theme to the Benny Hill show running through my head when I watched the games.

    I am still hearing a lot of wailing and gnashing of teeth regarding the teams defence, but things have progressed so amazingly far in such a short time.

    The new coach and GM will invigorate this team. Collectively the entire team has pretty much played at the bottom range of their abilities.

    Things are going to change right from the opening of training camp. Players will compete for jobs and Todd Mac will lay out his system and the players will have clearly defined roles and responsibilities.

    Regular season will start with the squad set, system set, last few preseason games was spent fine tuning, all systems go.

    Defense will become a collective thought on the team. Forwards will be expected to back check and pressure in their own end. This will help the Defense.

    The Defense has been upgraded. Upgraded enough? Probably not enough to be Stanley Cup contenders the first year. But so much progress has been made.

    Goaltending has been upgraded. With better defending coming from the rest of the team, the goalie will have an easier time of it.

    The Coach has been given a much much stronger roster than any team since 06, if not longer.

    As much as I have enjoyed Mr Lowetides RE series in the past, this year the slate is wiped clean and anything can happen. A team with a good GM with a good coach with a good roster is a new world order. They are now going to be playing “hockey” on the ice, not whatever that shit show was called previously. Old timers like Nikitin and Ference will look better because of this.

    They know how to play hockey and with better systems and coaching they will plug the holes for a year or two. The boys on the bus never had the best defense in the league, they didn’t need it and were happy to win games 6 – 4.

    April 18th, 2015 the Hockey Gods gave us one last blessing and you young timers have no freaking idea how freaking lucky we are.

    Anyone have an idea of the exact time the last ping pong ball dropped? Cause that’s when it all changed.

  96. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    blainer,

    I’d also add: watch carefully what currency, equity futures, CDS (credit default swaps), and oil do tonight based on the results coming from Greece.

    Was just saying that to my wife.. Thanks for the opinions.. You’re pretty much saying what I have been thinking..

  97. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    blainer,

    I can’t recall if you were around for the winter/spring financial dialogues (I think you were), but we have some long-time finance types here (kinger, GMoney, etc. (me: 2000-2015 global portfolio and proprietary trading for the bigger US investment banks and asset managers before the photography thing this year) and others, as well as people involved directly with commodities such as Woodguy, some of the oil guys) so feel free to ask questions. Someone will answer and others will follow up.

  98. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/first-official-projection-says-at-least-61-of-greeks-voted-no-in-referendum-2015-07-05

    61% no for Greece. Going to be a bumpy ride tonight/tomorrow.

    ECB will stand firm on no re-negotiation of a better deal or lose all credibility. They won’t cave this time because confidence in all of Europe will disappear if they do.

    The Greek government has completely botched their hand on this one and they are about to find that out.

  99. PerryK says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    I guess we all hope Button now knows what he’s talking about.

    Do you think it is possible at his age to acquire knowledge?

  100. Lowetide says:

    PerryK: Do you think it is possible at his age to acquire knowledge?

    As an older fellow, I’d say the answer is yes. And Button’s record as scouting director had some nice hits. I know Button isn’t well liked on this blog but for me he’s absolutely a valuable resource.

  101. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Found that old article about Greek tax evasion and swimming pools. It’s pretty hilarious. Why should the rest of Europe fund these guys?

    http://boingboing.net/2010/05/04/satellite-photos-cat.html

  102. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Lowetide: As an older fellow, I’d say the answer is yes. And Button’s record as scouting director had some nice hits. I know Button isn’t well liked on this blog but for me he’s absolutely a valuable resource.

    I think most people’s issue with Button is his seeming need to have at least one or two massive outliers in his draft rankings, almost to make a point and generate traffic. He did that with Hanifin this year, with a scouting report that makes it SEEM as though he hadn’t seen him since Christmas, when the offense started to come.

    Otherwise, I think most people don’t really have a problem with him, but he does it every year.

  103. RexLibris says:

    wheatnoil: This assumes Sweeney would have accepted a 2016 1st, 2nd, & 3rd. They may have wanted 2015 picks and they may have wanted more from Chia. Chia’s offer was already better than Treliving’s.

    Sorry, forgot to include that the scenario presumes an offer sheet where that would be the compensation when unmatched.

    It could have been much higher. Even might have had to have been.

  104. G Money says:

    *** NERD ALERT ***

    Take the survey: how will the changes to the Oilers impact goal differential next season?

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/07/05/survey-crowdsourcing-the-oiler-goal-differential-for-next-season/

  105. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: As an older fellow, I’d say the answer is yes. And Button’s record as scouting director had some nice hits. I know Button isn’t well liked on this blog but for me he’s absolutely a valuable resource.

    Article in the EJ the other day specifically about the ability to learn intelligence.

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Jagannath+Prasad+been+named+Order+Canada+renowned+University+Alberta+psychologist+known+most+helping+develop+theory+intelligence/11181036/story.html

  106. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    G Money,

    Took it. Last category, you wanted us to write the additional reasons for delta in goal differential and place a number for JUST that category, right? I saw no “final” or “total” number come up, so just making sure.

  107. G Money says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    That’s right …

    It’s a catchall question. I took a look and it is a bit confusing, so I reworded it a bit for clarity. Only a few responses so far, so hopefully if anyone was confused by those last two questions, their responses won’t impact the overall results much.

    I’m going to average the results, add them up, and use that to produce an overall predicted goal differential for next year based on the collective wisdom/opinion of the Oilogosphere!

  108. commonfan14 says:

    What’s the opposite of the Reinhart trade? Something like somehow flipping Nurse at the draft for, say, the #17 and #34 picks?

    I imagine this place would have reacted poorly to such a transaction.

  109. jake70 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Found that old article about Greek tax evasion and swimming pools. It’s pretty hilarious. Why should the rest of Europe fund these guys?

    http://boingboing.net/2010/05/04/satellite-photos-cat.html

    Is a country “Too Big to Fail”. Heard that term a few times, let’s see, back in 2008, but it was related to US (some Investment) Banks being bailed out IIRC. 🙂

  110. Bag of Pucks says:

    RexLibris: Something to be considered in the Reinhart v Hamilton debate (which is where I think many of us were emotionally that day) is whether the Oilers were better off giving up 16 and 33 for Reinhart or giving up a 1st, 2nd and 3rd next year (draft order to be determined) for Hamilton.

    Is the difference between the two enough to forfeit a potential, and some would say almost inevitable, lottery pick (defined as being outside the playoff teams) for Hamilton vs a pair of picks for which we have a much more defined value for Reinhart worthwhile?

    The other factor that drives memes like this imo is the overvaluing of draft picks/brand new prospects vs more known quantities.

    If Chiarelli would’ve traded #16 plus David Musil for Reinhart, it’s likely that no one would’ve complained or suggested overpay. This despite the fact that Musil was a #31st overall pick and thus represents extremely comparable asset value to a #33 pick. The reason for this bias is Musil represents the known and the #33 pick the unknown, and human beings psychologically overvalue the unknown.

    In metaphorical terms, Barzal or the #16 of #33 picks at the time of the draft represent that gorgeous girl across the bar whose glance lingered enough to merit further investigation. As we approach, she (the unknown quantity) is at the apex of her value. It’s only as we progress into the development stage that we realize that that the skil saw timbre of her voice, the shopping and reality TV addictions, her hillbilly family, etc. all represent actual factors that may ultimately supersede the theoretical value of which we were so originally enamoured. In essence, our dream girl became a Musil. Fuck.

    Draft hype and prospect buzz is great for fans, but it’s the last thing we want our GM to fall prey to.

    Chiarelli has to be able to look at that #33 pick and recognize it for what it is: a % chance of delivering an actual NHL player in 3-5 years time, nothing more, nothing less.

  111. geowal says:

    G Money:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    That’s right …

    It’s a catchall question.I took a look and it is a bit confusing, so I reworded it a bit for clarity.Only a few responses so far, so hopefully if anyone was confused by those last two questions, their responses won’t impact the overall results much.

    I’m going to average the results, add them up, and use that to produce an overall predicted goal differential for next year based on the collective wisdom/opinion of the Oilogosphere!

    I took the last question as an attempt to sum up all the previous questions, so I had to max it out. I think if you see a lot of 50s there (my total was 52 I believe) you may want to disregard the additional 50..,

  112. G Money says:

    geowal,

    Yeah, if there’s a lot of 50s in the sample set prior to my updating the questions, I will probably leave the values for that question out of the averaging process, just for validity. Sorry ’bout that!!

  113. Lowetide says:

    I’d disagree with that a little. Reinhart’s ceiling is lower than some of the kids taken No. 16 overall this season. He is a quality prospect and he is closer to ready. I don’t think those things have anything to do with draft buzz or Dougie Hamilton.

  114. geowal says:

    G Money,

    We don’t all have English degrees! Hehe

  115. godot10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/first-official-projection-says-at-least-61-of-greeks-voted-no-in-referendum-2015-07-05

    61% no for Greece. Going to be a bumpy ride tonight/tomorrow.

    ECB will stand firm on no re-negotiation of a better deal or lose all credibility. They won’t cave this time because confidence in all of Europe will disappear if they do.

    The Greek government has completely botched their hand on this one and they are about to find that out.

    The IMF came out with a report last week that the Europeans didn’t want released saying that new bailout plans without a debt haircut would be doomed to fail, and that the IMF and Europe have know this for quite some time.

    So who is being deceptive and who is telling the truth?

    The IMF, ECB, and EU bailed out all the banksters and private creditors who held Greek debt five years ago, and stuck the Greek people with the bill.

    The fools who lent Greece the money should not have been bailed out and the debt put on the public balance sheet of Europe and the World.

    Only Iceland did it right. No bailout for the creditors, and they threw the (at least some) bankers in jail.

  116. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    jake70: Is a country “Too Big to Fail”. Heard that term a few times, let’s see, back in 2008, but it was related to US (some Investment) Banks being bailed out IIRC.

    Right now, the world couldn’t handle a US failure. Debatable if it could handle Chinese failure. In truth, any one other country could probably fail without the collapse of the global system. But the world’s central banks are basically looking the other way to allow Japan to do what it wants and devalue the currency to keep the game going, so their definition of too big to fail is a lot more liberal than mine. Under that, Japan, Germany, Great Britain, France, Canada, Australia are big enough that the powers that be won’t let them fail. Italy and Spain? Probably on the outside looking in, although they will be given more leeway and funding than Greece.

  117. Ray says:

    commonfan14:
    What’s the opposite of the Reinhart trade?Something like somehow flipping Nurse at the draft for, say, the #17 and #34 picks?

    I imagine this place would have reacted poorly to such a transaction.

    Are you kidding? Those picks would have been a great return for Nurse! 🙂

  118. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    godot10: The IMF came out with a report last week that the Europeans didn’t want released saying that new bailout plans with a debt haircut would be doomed to fail, and that the IMF and Europe have know this for quite some time.

    So who is being deceptive and who is telling the truth?

    The IMF, ECB, and EU bailed out all the banksters and private creditors who held Greek debt five years ago, and stuck the Greek people with the bill.

    The fools who lent Greece the money should not have been bailed out and the debt put on the public balance sheet of Europe and the World.

    Only Iceland did it right.No bailout for the creditors, and they threw the (at least some) bankers in jail.

    Your point is actually completely unrelated to mine. In a “fair” world, everyone involved would share the blame and share the loss; we don’t live in a fair world. My point is not about deception or who is telling the truth because everyone involved: taxpayers, bankers, politicians, have skin in the game and will spin the story in whatever way they want.

    My point speaks directly to the bottom line here: the Greek Government have played their hand believing they can renegotiate a better deal with Europe if the people vote no. They are about to find out that it’s going to be a lot harder to do than 5 years ago and the tolerance for improving the terms in the rest of Europe is nil.

    That’s my point.

  119. Gordies Elbow says:

    Bag of Pucks: The other factor that drives memes like this imo is the overvaluing of draft picks/brand new prospects vs more known quantities.

    Yep. This fits elegantly with “Prospect theory” (a theory in behavioral economics, for which Kahneman shared the nobel prize in economics.)

    Kahneman and Tversky’s formula speaks to loss aversion, which is fascinating when applied to deals like this one. The desire to keep the picks is likely due to the endowment effect.

    Count me in the group of that believes the utiltiy of the picks will be less than the utility of the player, in the reference timeframe.

  120. Gerta Rauss says:

    Ben:

    thx!

    And, because I’m too lazy to google – when would this mythical 2nd buyout window / wormhole to Omsk open up?

    I’m going to beat this thing to death this summer (forgive me)

    I think the buyout window would open again if Schultz (or Pitlick) files for arbitration before today’s deadline.

    The “2 arb minimum” applies to club elected arb, whereas, I believe, player elected arb only requires 1 player to file to re-open the window.

    Ryan Batty refers to this a few days ago in this article
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2015/6/30/8871579/oilers-salary-cap-free-agency-nikitin-buyout

    I guess the Oilers could take both Schultz and Pitlick to club elected arb tomorrow and re-open the window as well.

    We’ll see

  121. PerryK says:

    Lowetide,

    Sorry, LT. Mostly, I was just trying to be funny (in a glib kind of way). But, when you hear him say obviously ridiculous things with such conviction, so often….!

    By the way, I am older than you and I don’t really believe that learning has to stop.

  122. Oiln5 says:

    Thoughts on an easy minute 3rd line of Drai-McDavid-Yak?

    Then you have Hall-Nuge-Ebs with Pouliot-Lander-Purcell 2nd line.

  123. Lowetide says:

    PerryK:
    Lowetide,

    Sorry, LT.Mostly, I was just trying to be funny (in a glib kind of way).But, when you hear him say obviously ridiculous things with such conviction, so often….!

    By the way, I am older than you and I don’t really believe that learning has to stop.

    lol. No worries. I do appreciate having folks my own age on this blog though, helps when the young ones are itching for some conflict! 🙂

  124. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: Greek government encouraged Greeks to vote no to put pressure on Europe to give them yet another better deal. This time, it’s going to backfire. Too many swimming pools in Greece and people aren’t going to stand for it (look up tax evasion, Greece, and swimming pools). ECB has its credibility on the line and they won’t buckle. Greece will default, markets will drop, and I will be buying then. Greece is marginal. If Italy really drops hard on the back of it, I may look there, but otherwise, I’d be buying the good old US of A if there is a sharp correction. But only if we see 10 percent or more come out of the markets.

    One of the counter-intuitive things about the Greek language is their yes sounds like no, and their no sounds like okay.

    OXI is running over 60% right now, so looks like they will “win”.

    Just a heads up, NYC, but I would be very careful on Italy. Italy’s Target2 obligations are 18% of the total. If the full load comes into play, that’s a 80B Euro initial commitment, and 140B Euro expanded commitment. They might get paid back… but over time and possibly in drachma, but it doesn’t matter. Italy doesn’t have 80B Euros, and doesn’t have a central bank that can print them, so would have to go to the ELA facility themselves…. The same would likely happen with Spain, France, Austria… we could see the sovereign debt problem rear its ugly head again. (All they’ve really done is sweep the problem under the carpet anyways.)

    Just saying there might be a lot more risk in Europe than appears. The banks themselves should be fine, the risk of Greek default has been passed to the governments and thus the taxpayer, thanks to the ECB.

    Might see a couple of hedgies blow up too if they were buying Greek sovereign debt in their hunt for return.

    Since the IMF’s report came out this week that Greek debt at present is unsustainable and requires some outright forgiveness if any of it is going to be paid back, Europe is going to look pretty bad if they don’t cave on some of Tsipras’ demands—they could possibly be starting the end of the Euro, and of course are on the hook for tremendous amounts of money if Greece defaults.

    I like Tsipras’ “bluff”. I don’t see how Europe can’t cave.

  125. Greenberg says:

    Insights from James Tanner out of LA on Hockeybuzz:

    Everyone who keeps saying the Oilers haven’t “proven” anything or that uses some version of this: “people expected them to break out last year and the year before and they never did.”

    Come on. Their defense consists of Sekara, Schultz, Nurse, Klefbom and Reinhart. I don’t care if it takes a year or two for that to come to fruition, that is absolutely fantastic.

    They also just added a player who likely steps into the NHL and instantly becomes one of the best players to a team that already had RNH, Hall, Eberle, Draisaitl and Yakupov.

    Talbot has proven he can play in the NHL, which is really all 99% of goalies can do.

    I see no reason not to consider them among the best teams in the NHL already. Sure, they haven’t proven anything. But they will and I don’t need to see it first to know it’s gonna happen.

    So, do you really feel you should still be whining about our state of affairs? We are now the grass that is looking green (no pun intended). Count your blessings before your next rant begins. This IS a better team than two months ago.

  126. Bryan says:

    PerryK: Do you think it is possible at his age to acquire knowledge?

    That’s funny. Probably half the posters here might as well hang them up if there is no hope left.

  127. Kmart99 says:

    So curious to see who ends up Captain…

    Nuge?
    18yo CMD?
    Hall?
    Lander next year?
    Nurse next year or 2 years from now?

  128. Bryan says:

    PerryK:
    Lowetide,

    Sorry, LT.Mostly, I was just trying to be funny (in a glib kind of way).But, when you hear him say obviously ridiculous things with such conviction, so often….!

    By the way, I am older than you and I don’t really believe that learning has to stop.

    Sorry didn’t see this post before I mouthed off. Still need to learn to listen more and talk less.))))

  129. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide: I’d disagree with that a little. Reinhart’s ceiling is lower than some of the kids taken No. 16 overall this season. He is a quality prospect and he is closer to ready

    Post season hockey futures had him as #3 D prospect. Will be interesting when they roll in this year’s dtaft class. Suspect none of the D left at 16 slot in ahead of him. And that’s before looking at the immediacy value.

  130. Revolved says:

    I have no issue with the GR trade, as it gave us what we needed. I will admit to not having seen any of these prospects play, but which defender could we have taken at 16 that would have been better than GR in the next few years?

    I just hope we have enough veteran cover for all these young guys coming up. Why not put Mcdavid next to Pouliot and GR next to Gryba? This year needs to be well thought out in order to keep the prospect advancing.

  131. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    spoiler,

    Thanks, my mention of Italy was a bit too casual. I wouldn’t just step in there. It would depend on a lot of factors, and I wouldn’t touch their banks with a ten-foot pole anyway.

  132. spoiler says:

    PerryK: By the way, I am older than you and I don’t really believe that learning has to stop.

    No… just the remembering, lol!

  133. Lowetide says:

    Revolved:
    I have no issue with the GR trade, as it gave us what we needed. I will admit to not having seen any of these prospects play, but which defender could we have taken at 16 that would have been better than GR in the next few years?

    I just hope we have enough veteran cover for all these young guys coming up. Why not put Mcdavid next to Pouliot and GR next to Gryba? This year needs to be well thought out in order to keep the prospect advancing.

    GR with Gryba makes a lot of stylistic sense to me. Nurse is a guy who makes the team before GR (jmo) but after that Reinhart on that third pairing with a vet like Gryba isn’t the worst idea for Edmonton.

  134. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    spoiler,

    Thanks, my mention of Italy was a bit too casual. I wouldn’t just step in there. It would depend on a lot of factors, and I wouldn’t touch their banks with a ten-foot pole anyway.

    Yeah, I thought as much… From reading you, I know that while you are a technical investor, value is a big thing for you and you like to find value props, and I pretty much agree… if I had had some spare cash a year or so ago, I would have sunk a bit into the Russian stock market. Italy was merely an example you were using.

    Just wasn’t sure if you were aware of the Target2 obligations, so thought I better raise them.

    As for oil and V-shape recoveries. I agree with your analysis, with one caveat… Fracking is what started this glut (Saudis haven’t really changed their production much), but fracking has a pretty steep and tight production curve so depends heavily on rollover financing so they can keep fracking new holes and keep production up. If this financing disappears, fracking production will crater and we could see that V-shaped pop. Of course, price goes up, financing comes back on line, production goes up, price goes down…

    I think there are a few fracking companies that have unsustainable business models that need to be completely taken out so the entire complex can be produced on a more reasonable scale. But when you have cheap money flooding the markets like we did, this is precisely the sort of capital misallocation that occurs. Thank your socialist banking system, people.

  135. frjohnk says:

    Kmart99:
    So curious to see who ends up Captain…

    Nuge?
    18yo CMD?
    Hall?
    Lander next year?
    Nurse next year or 2 years from now?

    Ference.

    Signed to an extension of course. 🙂

  136. PDO says:

    This is horribly unrelated to the topic here, but I’ve been looking for a Nurse comparable and (albeit hopefully) a comparable that could lead us to believe he can contribute as a top 4 NHL D next year right out of the box.

    I think I found him.

    Alex Pietrangelo vs Darnell Nurse

    Nurse comes in an inch taller but with a similar lanky build.

    Alex Pietrangelo was taken 4th OV in 2008 vs Darnell Nurse 7th OV in 2013 so they have a very similar pedigree.

    Pietrangelo famously was held on the Blues roster to practice until the WJC so the numbers are hard to project perfectly, but here are the junior box cars:

    Piet draft year:

    60 GP 13 G 40 A

    Nurse draft year:

    68 GP 12 G 29 A

    Piet draft +1

    36 GP 8 G 21 A

    Nurse draft +1

    64 GP 13G 37 A

    Piet draft +2

    25 GP 9G 20 A

    Nurse draft +2

    36 GP 10 G 23 A

    So we can see Pietrangelo is bringing a shade more offense, but not a ton more either.

    So now lets take a look at what Pietrangelo did as a rookie at the same age Nurse is now..

    Boxcars:

    79 GP 11 G 32 A

    Fancies:

    Qual Comp: .673 (third, just barely)
    Zone Start: 56.2 (5th, but three guys in the range… Jackman and Polak were buried and everyone else played the same)
    Corsi: 10.81 (First)

    So he looks like he played 2nd pairing but KILLED it.

    Lets look at the WOWY’s:

    58.4 % GF 54.4 CF %

    He played a bit with everyone….

    With Jackman:

    52.9 % GF and 54.8 CF % in 448 minutes.

    Jackman without:

    47.4 % GF and 47.6 CF % in his remaining 584 minutes.

    With Colaiacovo:

    69.2 % GF (!!!) and 55.1 CF% in 358 minutes.

    Colaiacovo without Piet:

    32.5 % GF and 50.4 CF % in 589 minutes.

    So right out of the box Pietrangelo came in, was arguably the best defenseman on the team and had gone through a similar career path as Nurse has up to this point.

    Is it blue skying? Sure.

    Is it too much to think it could happen here? I don’t think so.

    It’s not impossible for Nurse to come in out of the box and be a good top 4 defenseman.

  137. Mr DeBakey says:

    Lowetide: GR with Gryba makes a lot of stylistic sense to me.

    In Bakersfield, yes.

  138. Kmart99 says:

    frjohnk,

    But of course

  139. Revolved says:

    Kmart99:
    So curious to see who ends up Captain…

    Nuge?
    18yo CMD?
    Hall?
    Lander next year?
    Nurse next year or 2 years from now?

    Are you sure Ference will not hang on one more year?

  140. Lowetide says:

    PDO: Excellent work! One of the things about Nurse’s development this season is that little run he had at the end of the year in OKC. I had hoped that Chiarelli would see him but maybe he’s just too good.

  141. Kmart99 says:

    Revolved,

    Well, no.

    But I’d like to dream of an Oilers team without Ference even on the roster.

  142. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Found that old article about Greek tax evasion and swimming pools. It’s pretty hilarious. Why should the rest of Europe fund these guys?

    http://boingboing.net/2010/05/04/satellite-photos-cat.html

    Lol… leaving aside tax evasion, Byzantine bureaucracies, grand corruption… partly because this is happening to a lesser degree all throughout Europe, in fact “Europe” itself is an experiment in inefficient Byzantine bureaucracy, but leaving all that aside for now…

    The Greek debt problem was created by the structure of Europe being unable to handle trade imbalances. That is, Germans sold a lot of their goods to Greece (and Spain etc), but did not buy Greek goods in return. Normally these are two independent states, and their reserves and their exchange rates would mitigate the trade imbalance. That can’t be done within Europe. There is only one currency. This debt problem is not the fault of lazy corrupt Greeks as the German newspapers like to portray. This debt problem is a function of the very structure of Europe and without a change to that structure will always be a catastrophe in waiting. Zee Germans profited greatly off this imbalance and now want to turn a blind eye to why it occurred. #Because Europe.

  143. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    *** NERD ALERT ***

    Take the survey: how will the changes to the Oilers impact goal differential next season?

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/07/05/survey-crowdsourcing-the-oiler-goal-differential-for-next-season/

    Can I take this poll if I feel there are further changes to come?

  144. McSorley33 says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

    I was not aware…..good article.

    Thanks

  145. Halfwise says:

    spoiler: Lol… leaving aside tax evasion, Byzantine bureaucracies, grand corruption… partly because this is happening to a lesser degree all throughout Europe, in fact “Europe” itself is an experiment in inefficient Byzantine bureaucracy, but leaving all that aside for now…

    The Greek debt problem was created by the structure of Europe being unable to handle trade imbalances.That is, Germans sold a lot of their goods to Greece (and Spain etc), but did not buy Greek goods in return.Normally these are two independent states, and their reserves and their exchange rates would mitigate the trade imbalance.That can’t be done within Europe. There is only one currency.This debt problem is not the fault of lazy corrupt Greeks as the German newspapers like to portray.This debt problem is a function of the very structure of Europe and without a change to that structure will always be a catastrophe in waiting.Zee Germans profited greatly off this imbalance and now want to turn a blind eye to why it occurred. #Because Europe.

    Adding to this, Germany sold its goods in Euros and did not have to suffer the normal consequences of being a successful exporter, i.e. a rising currency. BMWs are cheaper than they ought to be, for example, because of the Eurozone.

    A massive market distortion was created for political and altruistic reasons. Sooner or later, it must fail. The longer it is propped up, the more spectacular will be the coming apart.

    I think the Greek thing is healthy and overdue. More exits from the Euro should follow.

    Easy to say from my safe perch.

    Meanwhile, I wonder how the retirement conversation is going between Chiarelli and Ference.

  146. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    I think it is now stable, and therefore safe. (your English degree may disagree)

    If there are any further elements of confusion built into the questions, I will resort to my old programming techniques and blame the users!

  147. wheatnoil says:

    Lowetide:
    PDO: Excellent work! One of the things about Nurse’s development this season is that little run he had at the end of the year in OKC. I had hoped that Chiarelli would see him but maybe he’s just too good.

    I can’t find the quote again, but Chiarelli (pre-draft) had talked about having players “who may not start the year with us, but may end the year with us.” I remember him using pretty much those exact words and thought that was interesting. I immediately thought of Nurse.

    I think Chia’s play here is holding steady and flipping Nikitin with salary-retained for a late draft pick half-way through the year to a playoff contender with injury troubles and Nurse getting the call after a half year of seasoning in OKC.

  148. Oilanderp says:

    Gordies Elbow: Yep. This fits elegantly with “Prospect theory” (a theory in behavioral economics, for which Kahneman shared the nobel prize in economics.)

    Kahneman and Tversky’s formula speaks to loss aversion, which is fascinatingwhen applied to deals like this one. The desire to keep the picks is likely due to the endowment effect.

    Count me in the group of that believes the utiltiy of the picks will be less than the utility of the player, in the reference timeframe.

    This video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vBX-KulgJ1o) is related and interesting. People won’t take a bet even when the odds are in their favour. Illogical risk-aversion. Required watching for anyone with an opinion on the Reinhart trade, imo.

  149. spoiler says:

    The value of having a Slepyshev pop (“pop” isn’t a word I heard used until Chiarelli, is it a new reference?) is huge.

    I’m out-right guessing here, but I think that this comes from video gaming… my village popped from Middle Ages to Renaissance… That quest was a 3 level pop…. also short for populate… where do the enemies “pop”, where do I pop on this level when I die?

    The yutes can say better than I, but that’s my guess.

  150. G Money says:

    wheatnoil,

    I would be perfectly happy if that is what ends up happening. But I’m seeing an inordinate number of glowing Twitter reviews of Nurse (skating, monstrous strength, outstanding defensive positioning, nasty streak), from typically level-headed commentators not prone to hyperbole.

    I’m thinking if those are in any way reflective of reality, there is no way Nurse isn’t on the team this fall.

  151. spoiler says:

    Halfwise: Adding to this, Germany sold its goods in Euros and did not have to suffer the normal consequences of being a successful exporter, i.e. a rising currency. BMWs are cheaper than they ought to be, for example, because of the Eurozone.

    Yep, this is exactly my point. German industry profited from a built-in subsidy that would normally self-rectify by foreign exchange and reserves buying sovereign debt. And now they’re bitching, because the officials can’t talk about that, #BecauseEurope.

  152. spoiler says:

    G Money:
    spoiler,

    I think it is now stable, and therefore safe.(your English degree may disagree)

    If there are any further elements of confusion built into the questions, I will resort to my old programming techniques and blame the users!

    Sorry, I meant changes to the Oilers, lol.

  153. G Money says:

    If you haven’t read Bruce M’s notes from prospect camp, you need to!
    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/07/04/darnell-nurse-looks-ready-for-the-next-step-and-other-notes-from-oilers-development-camp/

    Here’s some choice quotes from his Nurse summary (and Bruce is one of those super level headed guys without a doubt, so when he uses these kinds of superlatives, it’s hard not to think that maybe PDO‘s Pietrangelo comparable is a real possibility).

    #25 Darnell Nurse (D)
    “easily the most dynamic pure athlete Oilers have drafted since Taylor Hall, or maybe since Mark Messier.”
    “All-World wheels and surely projects to be one of the fastest rearguards in the NHL.”
    “Once he figures out when to be proactive and when “less is more”, he’s going to be some kind of player. He’s more than ready to turn pro now, and may be in the NHL to stay sooner than later.”

    Most dynamic pure athlete, in the class of Hall or Messier?
    One of the fastest defenders in the NHL?

    Man.

    What was Chia’s comment about having McDavid, Nurse, Draisaitl?

    “Chills”.

    Yup.

  154. G Money says:

    spoiler,

    Ha ha, yeah, that’s the risk! Or maybe I should say, the hope.

    If it’s a big one, say trading Ference and signing Ehrhoff, I will definitely have to do a followup one or two question survey to update the results.

  155. spoiler says:

    If Chia doesn’t do the deals for Reinhart and Talbot, showing the world he is willing to turn this dogsled north, is he able to sign Sekera and Letestu?

  156. oilinthepeg says:

    The thing is, on draft day when Barzal fell, I was ecstatic! And… They weren’t even going to pick him! So… I figure we were all saved the debate about whether leaving him on the board was a mistake.
    I like Reinhart plenty, I think it was a decent price. Even though we have to set aside biases and try to look at what Chia has done as a whole, we also need to remember that sometimes when you have to shore up a D that has been badly managed for the past few years, you need to take risks. These risks may not be the best on paper (considering the value the picks MIGHT have brought to the organization) but they represent hope in immediate improvement. You cannot ignore the need for that in this organization.

  157. G Money says:

    Kadri signs for one year and $4.1M.

    Strikes me as quite a strange contract.

    Are the Leafs pulling a MacPetry “prove it” contract move on one of their more productive offensive players?

  158. Lowetide says:

    oilinthepeg:
    The thing is, on draft day when Barzal fell, I was ecstatic! And… They weren’t even going to pick him! So… I figure we were all saved the debate about whether leaving him on the board was a mistake.
    I like Reinhart plenty, I think it was a decent price. Even though we have to set aside biases and try to look at what Chia has done as a whole, we also need to remember that sometimes when you have to shore up a D that has been badly managed for the past few years, you need to take risks. These risks may not be the best on paper (considering the value the picks MIGHT have brought to the organization) but they represent hope in immediate improvement. You cannot ignore the need for that in this organization.

    Barzal, when the walls fell?

  159. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide:
    I’d disagree with that a little. Reinhart’s ceiling is lower than some of the kids taken No. 16 overall this season. He is a quality prospect and he is closer to ready. I don’t think those things have anything to do with draft buzz or Dougie Hamilton.

    And I’m suggesting you feel that way because theoretical value is trumping known value. Reinhart has some development time now which enables known quantities (warts) to emerge. The prospects have not so we’re still in the honeymoon/ new car smell phase with them.

    Reinhart went #4OV so his theoretical ceiling at time of draft was clearly superior to that of a #16 or #33. The only thing that’s changed for the Reinharts and Musils of this world since then is the emergence of additional known quantities. Their sample size as pros are growing.

    Give Barzal and their like some time and their warts will emerge as well.

    You spend a lot of time tracking these prospects LT. It’s only natural that your investment and thus belief in their ceiling is huge. This is why scouts should scout and GMs should not. GMs have to avoid their personal investment so they can make purely rational decisions on the basis of actual asset value not theoretical.

    Ceiling in particular is a dangerous word/mindset as it implies definitive known quantities that simply do not exist. Ceilings are educated guesses. prognostications. The most important thing atm, we know a helluva lot more about Reinhart than we do Barzal.

  160. Revolved says:

    G Money:
    wheatnoil,

    I would be perfectly happy if that is what ends up happening.But I’m seeing an inordinate number of glowing Twitter reviews of Nurse (skating, monstrous strength, outstanding defensive positioning, nasty streak), from typically level-headed commentators not prone to hyperbole.

    I’m thinking if those are in any way reflective of reality, there is no way Nurse isn’t on the team this fall.

    I do think Nurse should be in Edmonton based on merit, but I would really like to see him beat his way out of Bakersfield first. It would be great if if GR was down there to get an even comparison of the two in top roles. Hopefully neither is relied on in the top 4 all year (yeah,right…)

    After all, we are paying Nikitin and Ference. Don’t worry though, they’ll both have season ending injuries in the opening period of the first game.

  161. speeds says:

    Here is the list of players that have filed for arbitration:

    http://www.nhlpa.com/news/23-players-elect-salary-arbitration

  162. blainer says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    blainer,

    I can’t recall if you were around for the winter/spring financial dialogues (I think you were), but we have some long-time finance types here (kinger, GMoney, etc. (me: 2000-2015 global portfolio and proprietary trading for the bigger US investment banks and asset managers before the photography thing this year) and others, as well as people involved directly with commodities such as Woodguy, some of the oil guys) so feel free to ask questions.Someone will answer and others will follow up.

    Ya I was around for those posts and actually found them quite interesting. I read all them but did not post. Like you I travel between both countries as my primary residence is in Nfld. I will say it has been interesting in Boston through the Hamilton and Lucic debacle.. Was at the red sox game Friday night and I will say the bruin fans are pissed.. I am originally a bruin fan ( Bobby Orr ) too so its mixed feelings for me.. the oilers are my team now obviously..lol..

  163. spoiler says:

    G Money: #25 Darnell Nurse (D)
    “easily the most dynamic pure athlete Oilers have drafted since Taylor Hall, or maybe since Mark Messier.”
    “All-World wheels and surely projects to be one of the fastest rearguards in the NHL.”
    “Once he figures out when to be proactive and when “less is more”, he’s going to be some kind of player. He’s more than ready to turn pro now, and may be in the NHL to stay sooner than later.”

    This is my assessment too, from TV viewings. When you are keeping up with McDavid in foot races…

    His four way mobility and straight ahead speed are incredible. Only McDavid might be faster. I can’t actually think of a comp for Nurse’s skating… Doughty maybe.

    He’s Niedermayer’s feet in Rob Blake’s body.

    I don’t think he has the creativity or hands that Doughty has, or Niedermayer, but everything else…

  164. Kmart99 says:

    G Money,

    I feel the same way about Nurse. Going to be damn hard to keep him off the starting roster.

  165. Kmart99 says:

    Usually when you’re that big you tend to look slow, especially since one stride will cover more distance for a tall guy than a short guy, but Nurse looks like lightning.. So fast and agile. Not just for a big guy, but for anyone. What an athlete.

  166. wheatnoil says:

    G Money:
    If you haven’t read Bruce M’s notes from prospect camp, you need to!
    http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/07/04/darnell-nurse-looks-ready-for-the-next-step-and-other-notes-from-oilers-development-camp/

    Here’s some choice quotes from his Nurse summary (and Bruce is one of those super level headed guys without a doubt, so when he uses these kinds of superlatives, it’s hard not to think that maybe PDO‘s Pietrangelo comparable is a real possibility).

    #25 Darnell Nurse (D)
    “easily the most dynamic pure athlete Oilers have drafted since Taylor Hall, or maybe since Mark Messier.”
    “All-World wheels and surely projects to be one of the fastest rearguards in the NHL.”
    “Once he figures out when to be proactive and when “less is more”, he’s going to be some kind of player. He’s more than ready to turn pro now, and may be in the NHL to stay sooner than later.”

    Most dynamic pure athlete, in the class of Hall or Messier?
    One of the fastest defenders in the NHL?

    Man.

    What was Chia’s comment about having McDavid, Nurse, Draisaitl?

    “Chills”.

    Yup.

    We’re talking ’bout practice, man. Practice!

    Nurse’s raw tools were never in question and were probably NHL ready soon after draft day.

    Nurse emerging could be the thing that saves this defensive roster for the coming season, but I’m hesitant to count on it yet, despite how well he shows in an orientation camp against non-pros.

    Let’s not get ahead of ourselves. This team needs another Top 4 D and counting on it being a rookie is very ‘Because Oilers’. (Acknowledging the Oilers have done a number of ‘non-Because Oilers’ things lately)

  167. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: To start the games run Sekera-Schultz for O-Zone deployment, Klef-Fayne for shutdown. Late and protecting a lead, you can put Sekera-Fayne out. There’s some flexibility there.

    This is what I expect too. Sekera the Plug ‘n Play option depending on game state.

  168. speeds says:

    Bag of Pucks: And I’m suggesting you feel that way because theoretical value is trumping known value. Reinhart has some development time now which enables known quantities (warts) to emerge. The prospects have not so we’re still in the honeymoon/ new car smell phase with them.

    Reinhart went #4OV so his theoretical ceiling at time of draft was clearly superior to that of a #16 or #33. The only thing that’s changed for the Reinharts and Musils of this world since then is the emergence of additional known quantities. Their sample size as pros are growing.

    If the drafts are similar and if you think it’s a given that Reinhart should have been picked at 4OV, and depending how sure you are that the 15 picks before Barzal should have been selected before him.

  169. rickithebear says:

    Mact brought in
    Fayne
    42.25 CA/60 w/o Greene in NJ

    Nikitin w/
    fayne (1st) 52.75
    Petry (1st) 54.97
    Schultz (2nd) 60.13
    Wizniewsi (2nd) 47.34
    Tyutin (1st ) 49.58
    Nothing wrong with Nikitin’s 1st/2nd comp protection.
    except with 2 R side runways.

    Scrivens CA vs EVGA curve
    65.00+ CA/60 3.40 EVGA/60
    59.00 2.90
    55.00 2.77
    53.00 2.66
    50.00 2.30
    48.00 2.10
    Does not bail out any team.

    PC brought in:
    Talbot
    46.00 CA/60 1.20 EVGA
    49.00 CA/60 1.70
    52.00 CA/60 1.95
    55.00 CA/60 2.10
    58.00 Ca/60 2.45
    We are a lucky team!

    Talbot
    55.00 CA/60 2.10 EVGA
    Scrivens
    48.00 CA 2.10 EVGA

    Sekera
    14-15 – 51.89 CA/60 – 12 EVA/season
    12-13 to 13-14 – 59.66 CA/60 – 15 EVA/season
    10-11 to 11-12 – 51.38 CA/60 – 11 EVA/season
    07-08 to 09-10 – 51.23 CA/60 – 6 EVA/season
    Talbots curve suggests a real god EVGA

    Gryba w/
    Methot (1st) 51.73
    Phillips (2nd) 49.98
    Cowen (3rd) 59.37
    borowieki (3rd) 57.42
    52.19 without the 2 bottom players.

    Rheinhardt w/ sort of NHL D 55.81
    Dehaan (3rd) 44.03
    Strait (3rd) 71.00

    Nurse 2gm NHL 45.38 CA/60
    w/ Schultz (3rd) 36.48
    w/ fayne (3rd0 44.37
    w/ terence (3rd0 41.41
    w/ Hunt (4th) 105.88

    Ference
    w/ Petry (2nd) 59.60
    W/ Schultz (2nd/3rd) 67.84
    w/ Fayne (1st) 51.25
    w/ Klef 71.18
    w/ Marincin 69.42

    Schultz
    14-15 55.86
    w/ Klef 54.40
    w/ nikitin 60.14
    w/ Ference 64.70
    w/ marincin 42.25
    w/ Nurse 36.80

    12-13 63.95
    w/ N. schultz 64.18 Nick 58.31 w/o
    W/ ferene 68.88 ferene 57.00 w/o
    w/ Klef 57.90

    Fayne (1st) (42.25)
    Nikitin (2nd) (49.32)
    Sekura (1st) (51.39)
    Gryba (1st/2nd) (52.19)
    Klefbom (2nd) (52.97)
    Schultz (3rd) (54.40)
    Nurse (3rd) (45.38)

  170. Магия 10 says:

    speeds:
    Here is the list of players that have filed for arbitration:

    http://www.nhlpa.com/news/23-players-elect-salary-arbitration

    Scenarios narrow

    19 files – qo or deal or award
    club files – qo or deal or award or walk
    No filing – qo or deal or os or rights traded

    No buyouts now.

  171. Bag of Pucks says:

    speeds: If the drafts are similar and if you think it’s a given that Reinhart should have been picked at 4OV, and depending how sure you are that the 15 picks before Barzal should have been selected before him.

    The only reason that some don’t perceive Reinhart as a legitimate #4 and some perceive Barzal as potentially > #16 is the known vs the unknown. In Reinhart’s case, alleged warts have emerged which lessens his lustre. In Barzal’s case, a high ceiling is still theoretically possible until known quantities emerge to prove otherwise.

    No one can accurately predict these ceilings with any degree of accuracy as evidenced by what is revealed in redrafts 5 years after the fact.

    What the data DOES reveal is the ‘ceiling’ and development paths for Top 5 picks are more predictable and certain and this should increase our comfort level with Reinhart in terms of realized asset value – particularly given the positional need fit.

  172. Doug McLachlan says:

    Halfwise,

    If Ference were to retire what would the cap hit be, if anything.

    If the Oilers were to turn around and hire him to work with the managment/coaching staff in some capacity (and for an amount reflecting his playing salary) is that cap circumvention?

  173. speeds says:

    Bag of Pucks: The only reason that some don’t perceive Reinhart as a legitimate #4 and some perceive Barzal as potentially > #16 is the known vs the unknown.

    The only reason? Are you absolutely sure about that?

    https://lowetide.ca/2012/06/19/draft-week-post-12-blue-bullets-30/
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/9/25/2448121/2012-nhl-draft-top-30-consensus-list-bob-mckenzies-list-added

  174. v4ance says:

    Bag of Pucks: And I’m suggesting you feel that way because theoretical value is trumping known value. Reinhart has some development time now which enables known quantities (warts) to emerge. The prospects have not so we’re still in the honeymoon/ new car smell phase with them.

    Reinhart went #4OV so his theoretical ceiling at time of draft was clearly superior to that of a #16 or #33. The only thing that’s changed for the Reinharts and Musils of this world since then is the emergence of additional known quantities. Their sample size as pros are growing.

    Give Barzal and their like some time and their warts will emerge as well.

    You spend a lot of time tracking these prospects LT. It’s only natural that your investment and thus belief in their ceiling is huge. This is why scouts should scout and GMs should not. GMs have to avoid their personal investment so they can make purely rational decisions on the basis of actual asset value not theoretical.

    Ceiling in particular is a dangerous word/mindset as it implies definitive known quantities that simply do not exist. Ceilings are educated guesses. prognostications. The most important thing atm, we know a helluva lot more about Reinhart than we do Barzal.

    I think where I would disagree with you in your logic is that Reinhart was a 4 OV in a weaker 2012 draft class. Reinhart definitely would not have been the #4 OV in THIS year’s class so saying that trading 16 and 33 and comparing it to 4th OV is unfair.

    This year’s #16 and #33 picks were in what was touted to be one of the strongest draft classes in years. If a hypothetical re-draft occurred with an 18 year old Reinhart entering this year’s draft, some of the twitter pundits said that he would go somewhere after #10.

    So in that calculation, is the #11th OV worth a #16 and #33? That’s where I agree with the sentiment that we overpaid (slightly).

    I also agree that the defence needed help now and that Reinhart is a good bet to help the corps soon. It’s a defensible bet but it does has some risk as all bets do. We’re betting that Reinhart reaches a better level as a player with improved skating sooner than the players we could have gotten using those picks.

    If you look at the Reinhart transaction in isolation, it looks shaky but when taken with the value bet on Talbot. it evens out. One overpaid, one underpaid. Both can help the team. Good enough and good job by Chiarelli.

  175. spoiler says:

    v4ance: So in that calculation, is the #11th OV worth a #16 and #33? That’s where I agree with the sentiment that we overpaid (slightly).

    Yeah, but this is kind of bad argument too… so what if the true cost was 16 + 43… what do you do? I mean I suppose you can look around for a trade of the 33 to bring you a 43 and something, but that might not be there. And for NYI part of the reason they make that deal is so they can trade up and grab Barzal’s buddy Beauvillier. It was kind of a package deal and it was that package that made it worthwhile for NYI to relinquish Reinhart.

    Edit: I just think trying to place some sort of absolute value on these trade pieces is pointless.

    NYI wanted something. Edmonton wanted something. They found a way to make their wants/needs match.

  176. Woodguy says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Halfwise,

    If Ference were to retire what would the cap hit be, if anything.

    If the Oilers were to turn around and hire him to work with the managment/coaching staff in some capacity (and for an amount reflecting his playing salary) is that cap circumvention?

    No cap hit if he retires.

    Yes its cap circumvention if they try to entice him to retire with an office job.

    I fully endorse the Oilers doing exactly that.

  177. blainer says:

    G Money:
    wheatnoil,

    I would be perfectly happy if that is what ends up happening.But I’m seeing an inordinate number of glowing Twitter reviews of Nurse (skating, monstrous strength, outstanding defensive positioning, nasty streak), from typically level-headed commentators not prone to hyperbole.

    I’m thinking if those are in any way reflective of reality, there is no way Nurse isn’t on the team this fall.

    I agree.. He proved what he can in the A during the playoffs.. Now I would not be upset if he sent down but will be surprised. Based on Merit.. he starts the season in Edmonton..

  178. Revolved says:

    Woodguy: No cap hit if he retires.

    Yes its cap circumvention if they try to entice him to retire with an office job.

    I fully endorse the Oilers doing exactly that.

    Or on the first day of TC, McLellan can just lean over to Nurse, point at Ference and say ‘That’s the man with your job…’

  179. Woodguy says:

    speeds:
    Here is the list of players that have filed for arbitration:

    http://www.nhlpa.com/news/23-players-elect-salary-arbitration

    New Jersey Devils
    Eric Gélinas
    Adam Larsson

    The only thing NJD has going for it is their good young D and Lou is putting them through the wringer.

    Typical Lou.

    Calgary Flames
    Lance Bouma
    Paul Byron
    Josh Jooris

    Looks like Treliving doesn’t think the Cult of Hartley can continue to make these marginal NHLers into Real NHLers.

    Smart GM down there.

    New York Rangers
    Derek Stepan

    That could blow up their cap.

    St. Louis Blues
    Magnus Paajarvi

    STL might walk away on this one. He’d make a good Leaf.

    Washington Capitals
    Braden Holtby
    Marcus Johansson

    Whoa.

    It was supposed to be all wine and roses with Holtby and a long term contract.

    Those two players are pretty critical for WAS.

    Interesting to watch these play out.

  180. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    spoiler: Yeah, I thought as much… From reading you, I know that while you are a technical investor, value is a big thing for you and you like to find value props, and I pretty much agree… if I had had some spare cash a year or so ago, I would have sunk a bit into the Russian stock market.Italy was merely an example you were using.

    Just wasn’t sure if you were aware of the Target2 obligations, so thought I better raise them.

    As for oil and V-shape recoveries. I agree with your analysis, with one caveat…Fracking is what started this glut (Saudis haven’t really changed their production much), but fracking has a pretty steep and tight production curve so depends heavily on rollover financing so they can keep fracking new holes and keep production up.If this financing disappears, fracking production will crater and we could see that V-shaped pop.Of course, price goes up, financing comes back on line, production goes up, price goes down…

    I think there are a few fracking companies that have unsustainable business models that need to be completely taken out so the entire complex can be produced on a more reasonable scale.But when you have cheap money flooding the markets like we did, this is precisely the sort of capital misallocation that occurs. Thank your socialist banking system, people.

    You’re right on fracking and shale gas. I glossed over that aspect, too. Shows you what happens when on your phone as opposed to on a laptop. Apologies.

    I did buy Russia last year, by the way. The ETF with ticker RBL. Made a nice return thanks to both the rebound in currency and recovery in markets to some degree. I’m out now.

  181. G Money says:

    Interesting to see the survey results rolling in. Getting a nice range of responses. Some people are REAAAAALLY optimistic, and some are REAAAAALLY pessimistic!

  182. v4ance says:

    spoiler: Yeah, but this is kind of bad argument too… so what if the true cost was 16 + 43… what do you do?I mean I suppose you can look around for a trade of the 33 to bring you a 43 and something, but that might not be there. And for NYI part of the reason they make that deal is so they can trade up and grab Barzal’s buddy Beauvillier.It was kind of a package deal and it was that package that made it worthwhile for NYI to relinquish Reinhart.

    Edit: I just think trying to place some sort of absolute value on these trade pieces is pointless.

    NYI wanted something. Edmonton wanted something. They found a way to make their wants/needs match.

    This may or may not still apply but this is a chart done up in 2013 of relative draft pick values:
    http://www.broadstreethockey.com/2013/4/25/4262594/nhl-draft-pick-value-trading-up

    So for #11, approximate value would be #16 and #42 or so. Pretty much where you pegged it.

  183. Amadeus says:

    Woodguy: No cap hit if he retires.

    Yes its cap circumvention if they try to entice him to retire with an office job.

    I fully endorse the Oilers doing exactly that.

    Do you know why Pronger/Savard didn’t retire after their injuries?
    Is it because they still wanted to get paid?

  184. Oilanderp says:

    Is it irrational to still want Magnus Pääjärvi back in the fold? Is it wrong to think he is our Pisani?

  185. spoiler says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: You’re right on fracking and shale gas. I glossed over that aspect, too. Shows you what happens when on your phone as opposed to on a laptop. Apologies.

    I did buy Russia last year, by the way. The ETF with ticker RBL.Made a nice return thanks to both the rebound in currency and recovery in markets to some degree. I’m out now.

    Nice play, I’m jealous.

    Yeah, used to have an HTC with a keyboard I could fly on, but this typing on glass BS is tortuous. Words/post, posts/60 both go way down.

    And I’m always happy for the confirmation in thought. I worry about my subjectivity when it comes to reading the tea leaves, so thank you kindly sir.

  186. Woodguy says:

    Amadeus: Do you know why Pronger/Savard didn’t retire after their injuries?
    Is it because they still wanted to get paid?

    That would be my guess.

  187. v4ance says:

    I think we may have a little more cap room based on ELC bonuses.

    A lot of people have assumed the maximum ELC contracts for McDavid, Draisatl, Nurse or Reinhart. The thing is, not everyone’s contract has the same bonuses and not everyone will hit the bonuses.

    http://www.tsn.ca/talent/what-does-mcdavid-s-contract-look-like-1.324876

    McDavid can earn a maximum of $850,000 from his “A” bonuses – or nearly double his yearly salary. Each one of the following categories can pay him no more than a $212,500 bonus:
    > Time on Ice – Aggregate (total): must be in Top 6 among forwards on the team, minimum of 42 games played.
    > Time on Ice – Per Game: must be in Top 6 among forwards on the team, minimum of 42 games played.
    > Goals: minimum of 20
    > Assists: minimum of 35
    > Points: minimum of 60
    > Points per game: minimum of 0.73, minimum of 42 games played.
    > Plus/minus: must be in Top 3 among forwards, minimum of 42 games played.
    > Member of post-season all-rookie team.
    > All-Star Game participant.
    > Awarded All-Star Game MVP.

    Playing five games each season, for instance, could trigger a maximum $25,000 bonus. There could also be a bonus (no maximum) for hitting 10 games and then another one after his 11th game. They’re all included in that maximum $850,000 of “A” bonuses

    Looking at McDavid, I bet he hits the all-rookie team, points and points per game marks easily. He might get the TOI, goals, or assists marks but those are more iffy. But realistically, he gets a minimum of 3 of 4 and should max out by getting his 4th in some other category.

    If we extrapolate some of this info to Draisaitl, I don’t think he can hit as many of these marks unless he is stapled to McDavid’s wing. If Draisaitl starts on the 3rd line or has more than 20 AHL games, he’ll likely fall short of most of those bonus clauses.

    For defencemen, some of the marks are 10 goals, 25 assists, 0.49 PTs/G, top 3 in +/- on team, top 2 in blocked shots on team, all-rookie team, all-star team. I don’t believe Nurse or Reinhart will hit the offensive marks as they will mostly be playing in the 3rd pairing.

    http://capgeek.org/nhl-salary-cap-faq-how-do-entry-level-contracts-work/

    For Schedule B bonuses, if McDavid wins the Calder, he’ll basically max out these bonuses. But if McDavid wins it, Draisaitl, Nurse or Reinhart won’t win it so they can’t really achieve the B bonuses this year. If the non-McDavid trio spend a majority of time in the AHL, that might retain their eligibility for the awards next year but that will also reinforce the point that their cap hits won’t hit the maximum. I made the broad assumption that Nurse, Reinhart and Draisaitl won’t win the Hart, Richard, Norris, Vezina or Selke. :-p

    Right now, it appears the Oilers are about $3 million from the cap assuming Schultz’s contract is still around the same range and McDavid hits all his bonuses.

  188. speeds says:

    v4ance,

    No one thinks all the bonuses will be hit, but they have to be accounted for under the cap.

    Also, AFAIK, the Calder is not one of the awards that can earn a player Schedule B bonuses, not from the team (there is a league bonus).

  189. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: That would be my guess.

    RE: Pronger

    If a player signs a multi-year contract at the age of 35 (calculated as of June 30 prior to the year the contract takes effect, not as of the signing date), all salary and bonuses continue to count against the team salary cap, regardless of where and whether or not that player is playing.
    http://www.colliganhockey.com/nhl-cba-35-older-contracts/

  190. raventalon40 says:

    Lowetide: Always more lefties, the Americans are helping because they seem to have more righties. It’s been an issue since I was a kid, Habs had lefties up the ying yang when I was a kid, every damn one of them a Hall of Famer.

    geowal: Right-handed kids (as in the writing sense, most of population) tend to shoot left if they learned to play at a very early age, as is case for many Canadiadns. Those who learn at a later age tend to shoot right. Check out any ‘gents league full of guys who didn’t play early hockey and you find they all shoot right. The opposite seems to be true for the left-handed.

    Mind blown. I always wondered about that.

    Could expilain why all the guys on my team were right handed shots. We all started playing in our mid-teens and late-teens whereas most other kids would have started at a younger age

  191. Bag of Pucks says:

    speeds: The only reason?Are you absolutely sure about that?

    https://lowetide.ca/2012/06/19/draft-week-post-12-blue-bullets-30/
    http://www.coppernblue.com/2011/9/25/2448121/2012-nhl-draft-top-30-consensus-list-bob-mckenzies-list-added

    For me, actual value (where the player is drafted) trumps theoretical value (where the McKenzie list suggests the player should be drafted). But you definitely raise a good point in that advocates of the McKenzie list can point to this as rationale to support the overpay argument. Reinhart #8 on McKenzie’s list, Barzal #9. So why throw in the #33?

    The answer imo is the Oilers have to pay for a price for Reinhart’s development otherwise the Isles are essentially acting as the Oilers farm team and resetting the clock on their asset back to zero.

    The #33 is the price you pay to secure a more fully realized asset, avoid a bust, ensure the prospect is on track to their expected ceiling. You’re paying for a hedge, an insurance policy.

    By contrast, the risk for the Isles (and it’s a real one) is all the negatives that could happen to Barzal in the next 3 years (injury, failing to meet potential, etc. )

    There’s a price to be paid to acquire known quantities in exchange for unknown quantities and we can’t underrate that value. It’s the reason insider trading is a crime ; )

    GMoney pegged it right. The value was probably about a #40 for the sweetener. Given the underpay on Talbot, it seems like a wash to me.

    Given what he got for what he gave up, I don’t think Chiarelli hit just a home run on draft weekend. He hit for the cycle, McDavid being the home run obviously : )

  192. AsiaOil says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/first-official-projection-says-at-least-61-of-greeks-voted-no-in-referendum-2015-07-05

    61% no for Greece. Going to be a bumpy ride tonight/tomorrow.

    ECB will stand firm on no re-negotiation of a better deal or lose all credibility. They won’t cave this time because confidence in all of Europe will disappear if they do.

    The Greek government has completely botched their hand on this one and they are about to find that out.

    Disagree my friend. The Euro is a financial ponzi – just like all the other fiat currencies – and the rotating devaluations going around the world won’t stop the debt bomb that went off in 2007 from eventually going off.

    Greece is a debt slave to Germany and they have finally figured that out. All of southern Europe has been living on “vendor financing” from Germany to keep their industry humming . For heaven’s sake the Greek’s ship olives to Germany to be turned into olive oil and sent back to Greece for sale. That’s what happens when you are a low productivity country forced to use a high productivity currency – they can’t compete and never will be able to compete as they have zero ability to use monetary tools to off-set productivity differences. They need to exit – re-instate the drachma – and suffer a very painful few years of getting their fiscal house in order. But it is possible as Iceland shows. All the Greek’s have accomplished over the past 5 years of “austerity” is allowing the banks to off-load their Greek debt onto the various public balance sheets.

    As for the future – buy some gold as insurance (it’s on sale) get out of debt, and keep some cash on hand. Greece and Cyprus are coming to neighborhood near you on an unclear timeline. The debt fire will burn from the periphery to the center – and it looks like it just breached a significant EEC firewall.

  193. Glovjuice says:

    fifthcartel,

    Or the super awesome Eric Belanger

  194. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    AsiaOil,

    Not at all sure what you are disagreeing with me about.
    Which view are you expressing that you disagree with?

  195. Chris says:

    AsiaOil,

    Asia while I agree that Greece and various other Southern European countries have done themselves a disservice by joining the Euro as it’s entirely unsuitable for their economy, have you been to Greece?

    I was in Greece for a month three weeks ago before their house of cards started tumbling down. If you go their you can figure out why their government us broke in a couple days. No one pays tax on anything. It’s a cash economy, many businesses accept nothing but cash. Those that will accept credit card will offer you a discount for cash so they can avoid reporting the transaction. They are bickering with the Eu over a sales tax which they simply won’t collect. As most transactions are cash income is mostly unreported.

    As the Greeks won’t pay taxes, they’ve borrowed to prop up a massive inefficient government. They also have a culture where closing in the middle if the day for a nap is normal and thousands of people populating cafés where they drink and smoke continuously.

    The lack if an exchange rate is a problem but a real country doesn’t refuse to accept debit transactions anywhere because culturally they’ve also decided they don’t want transaction records which would document sales.

  196. Bank Shot says:

    speeds:
    v4ance,

    No one thinks all the bonuses will be hit, but they have to be accounted for under the cap.

    Also, AFAIK, the Calder is not one of the awards that can earn a player Schedule B bonuses, not from the team (there is a league bonus).

    I thought the bonuses no longer have to be accounted for for each indivdual?

    By that I mean you don’t have to leave space for them in 2015/2016 because if the players do succeed in hitting their bonuses it will just roll over to the next season.

    In the past I thought you had to leave the entire bonus amount open for each season on the chance all of the bonuses got hit. I thought that is now changed.

    Is that wrong?

    If that’s the case, its not much of a worry for a guy like Reinhart. He won’t be hitting any bonus besides plus/minus and/or blocked shots so I think you would be pretty safe in treating him like a million dollar player rather than a $3 million dollar cap hit.

  197. GCW_69 says:

    oliveoilers: Sorry bro or sis, it’s a nice thought but no way it happens while I have a hole in my arse.

    NJ like Larsson too and can google Jultz as well as the next scout.

    I wonder is 16, 33 and Marcincin would have got you Larsson at the draft though? Jersey is desperate for young forwards with top six potential and with Barzal on the board, I think Shero might have taken the deal.

  198. Pouzar says:

    Nurse 2015 World Junior Highlight package.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcC3WP-ZlTo

    Check out the sequence starting at 1:40…a cross check to the offensive player in his own zone, followed by puck retrieval behind his own goal, carries out the puck to his own blueline at which point he puts a pass right on a streaking Virtanen’s stick for a breakaway. How many times is his buddy McDavid gonna be open for that pass?

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca