DESTINATION UNKNOWN

Lots of talk today about Connor McDavid and his future. I’ve heard predictions from 80 points to past 100, but for me the most important number is 82 (games played). As I’m in the process of getting ready for the RE series, it’s a good idea to figure out a line in the sand for Edmonton’s prospects, beginning with Connor McDavid and ending with Martin Gernat. It’s a long damn list. I won’t give you the final RE here, but the range I’m thinking.

  1. C Connor McDavid NHLE: 82GP, 23-40-63. Destination: NHL from opening night. I think he’ll score more points but haven’t sussed it my guess yet. There are a lot of factors involved, not the least of which is the ability of the defense to move the puck to the forwards (where have you heard that before?) and the new OT rules. I’ll probably come in around .85-.90 points-per-game.
  2. C Leon Draisaitl NHLE: 82GP, 15-26-41. Destination: NHL before Christmas. The issues for Leon involve bonus dollars and that may (should) be an item for Edmonton. There’s also the matter of his UFA season being in the balance, so we’ll see. When he does arrive, it’s likely Draisaitl won’t be a feature player, so the .5 point-per-game seems reasonable.
  3. D Darnell Nurse NHLE: 82GP, 7-16-23. Destination: NHL from opening night. If Peter Chiarelli’s open audition comments from last night are true, this is an easy bet (based on current roster conditions). I agree with PDO’s comment the other day, Nurse may be top 4D by season’s end. If you’re going to invest in a rookie this season (after CMD), Nurse is my No. 1 choice for the role. I think .25-.28 point-per-game is about right for Nurse as a rookie.
  4. D Griffin Reinhart. NHLE: 82GP, 6-11-17. Destination: NHL by the trade deadline. The comment about making the team this fall goes back to draft night and the bet here is that Nurse beats out Reinhart for the one rookie slot that might be available from Todd McLellan. Head-to-head I’m betting this isn’t close, but when the deadline comes (or earlier due to injury) Reinhart is likely to be in the NHL. I think the NHLE reflects his offense.
  5. C Bogdan Yakimov. NHLE: 82GP, 10-13-23. Destination: AHL for 2015-16, with a cup of coffee in the NHL. Yakimov’s size is going to get him noticed in training camp and I imagine we’ll see him in several exhibition games. Injuries could hurry his arrival in the NHL, but there’s enough in front of him to project Bogdan into the AHL all year.
  6. W Iiro Pakarinen. NHLE: 82GP, 16-11-27. Destination: AHL to start, callups to the NHL early and often. Pakarinen’s combination of speed, skill and aggressiveness should be attractive to the new-look Oilers and I think he’ll see extensive time in Edmonton this year. The offense seems about right, depending on where he plays in the lineup.
  7. C Kyle Platzer. NHLE: 82GP, 12-17-29. Destination: He’ll spend his rookie pro season in the AHL. Platzer is a very good NHL prospect and I expect we’ll see him eventually (if he can bring enough offense to Bakersfield). This is the kind of player Detroit slow plays into the NHL and Edmonton would be wise to look long term.
  8. C-R Greg Chase. NHLE: 82GP, 8-16-24. Destination: AHL all year, with an NHL look-see possible. The thing to remember with Chase is this: He’s quite unique among prospects. If he’s working hard, playing a complete game, agitating without being a frequent visitor to the penalty box, he may get an NHL look as a reward.
  9. L Anton Slepyshev. NHLE: 82GP, 17-11-28. Destination: AHL marksman. The only ways he sees the NHL this year (imo) are a bunch of goals or a run of injuries. Slepyshev has a clear route to the NHL (there aren’t a bunch of skill wingers here) but Leon could move over and has NHL experience. A big season in Bakersfield could get him a big league job in 2016-17.
  10. D Ethan Bear. NHLE: 82GP, 5-9-14. Destination: WHL all year, hopefully plenty of PP time. He’s just getting started and will have to earn a pro contract for 2017-18. Lots of track but the offense (69GP, 13-25-38) has some room to grow.
  11. G Laurent Brossoit. Destination: A full season in Bakersfield as starter. Brossoit is important to the organization, but the additions of Nilsson and Laurikainen give Edmonton some cover if he falters. The former Oil King has a real shot here, though.
  12. D Joey Laleggia. NHLE: 82GP, 14-23-37. Destination: Full AHL season, possible recall if he flourishes. Laleggia is one of the tougher prospects to peg. If he helps fill the net as part of the Condors’ power play, we could see him in Edmonton for an extended period. I bet McLellan notices him early and often.
  13. D Dillon Simpson. NHLE: 82GP, 2-9-11. Destination: Full AHL season. His game is a two-way style and there’s no doubt more work to do for Simpson (who is 22). His second year in college featured a nice spike in performance, we may see that in pro hockey this coming season.
  14. G Eetu Laurikainen. Destination: Minor leagues for sure. He’s an option for the Oilers and they need good ones. No idea where he plays but remain convinced he’s a good bet.
  15. R Andrew Miller. NHLE: 82GP, 16-19-35. Destination: AHL to start, significant NHL time possible. Miller’s time—based on age—is now, and I can see him playing well enough to be an early recall option. His foot speed is good, and that may become an issue with some veterans (Purcell) as the deadline looms. Interesting spot for Miller this year.
  16. D Jordan Oesterle. NHLE: 82GP, 6-12-18. Destination: AHL all year, with a callup possible. Oesterle has some real strengths, including foot speed and passing ability. He could shine in TC and get recalled later in the season. College man, a little more mature than some of these names.
  17. D Caleb Jones. NHLE: 82GP, 2-5-7. Destination: Feature role in WHL with Portland. He’s an interesting player, there’s good foot speed and he had some PP time a year ago but there’s not a lot of evidence he’ll be an offensive type. Suspect we’re looking at second pairing potential but he’s a safe bet to play pro hockey.
  18. C Jujhar Khaira. NHLE: 82GP, 4-5-9. Destination: Full AHL season. He’ll be in his second year with the Oilers’ AHL team this year, and like Travis Ewanyk before him a spike in offense is badly needed. Khaira is big, strong and has speed, wonder if he gets time as the F who blocks out the sun on the power play.
  19. R Tyler Pitlick. NHLE: 82GP, 8-16-24. Destination: NHL all season or the waiver wire/AHL. MacT’s signing of Rob Klinkhammer may have been a tell, but Pitlick may have something to say if he can stay healthy. A head-to-head battle between the two should be interesting, and we shouldn’t discount someone like Iiro Pakarinen winning the job outright.
  20. D William Lagesson. NHLE: 82GP, 1-6-7. Destination: UMass and college hockey. He’s a bigger player than I thought he’d be, kind of rangy. We should hope to see lots of playing time and maybe an uptick in offense.
  21. D Ziyat Paigin. NHLE: 82GP, 2-2-4. Destination: KHL with more playing time. He played 9 minutes a night in 33 KHL games, meaning there’s a big opportunity to increase TOI where he is now. Fascinating prospect, really looking forward to following his season in 2015-16.
  22. G Anders Nilsson. Destination: Backup goalie in the NHL. Complete wild card at this point, I’m going to guess he beats out Ben Scrivens. Why? The fact we’re even talking about Ben Scrivens being in a competition with Anders Nilsson means there’s something about Ben Scrivens and the Oilers we don’t know. We have some of the story, not all of it. That’s my guess.
  23. D Ben Betker. NHLE: 82GP, 2-10-12. Destination: Full AHL season. I’ll tell you this guy is going to be heard from if he continues to develop. He’s very big and very fast, we’ll have to wait and see how he adjusts to pro but there’s a lot to like beyond the boxcar numbers.
  24. D Brandon Davidson. NHLE: 82GP, 3-4-7. Destination: AHL to start but could see significant NHL time. When a new regime takes over, new eyes can give wildly different assessments. My own feeling about Davidson is that he’s an 6-7D depth defenseman who may end up having a career on the fringe. Todd McLellan may decide that his skills (and he looked good in the NHL last season and in the AHL, too) fit what he’s trying to accomplish. I’m hoping he sticks at some point.
  25. D Brad Hunt. NHLE: 82GP, 11-19-30. Destination: Impact AHL defender, with a chance for recall. His defensive acumen is chaotic, but the offense is compelling and I suspect we’ll hear from him again. If only they’d institute the DH.
  26. L Kale Kessy. NHLE: 82GP, 8-8-16. Destination: A full AHL season. His skating was all the rage at last fall’s rookie camp and things were looking up for him. If he can return to that level and stay healthy, we may be talking about him in a different way come Christmastime.
  27. D David Musil. NHLE: 82GP, 1-7-8. Destination: Full AHL season, with a chance to make an NHL appearance. It’s difficult to project him, because McLellan may like his skill set and move him to the front of the line. Speed issues remain, and I’m betting that problem keeps him on the outside again this year.
  28. D John Marino. Destination: Another season with the South Shore Kings. I’m glad that we got to see him early on, you can see the appeal. Good wheels, passing, he’s also slight and will take some time. Harvard in 2016-17.
  29. G Zach Nagelvoort. Destination: Another seasons in the NCAA. His SP was .929 in his draft year, that’s a tremendous number. He fell to .906, lost the starting job to Steve Racine and it’s not certain he’ll get it back again.
  30. C Alexis Loiseau. NHLE: 82GP, 12-20-32. Destination: AHL/ECHL and a big pro chance. Signed to an AHL deal, Loiseau is one of this year’s Winquist’s and a nice bet.
  31. R Tyler Vesel. NHLE: 82GP, 7-13-20. Destination: Another full season of NCAA hockey in Omaha. Young skill forward showed well last year, playing more than we might have expected. If he can progress from there, a contract is possible.
  32. L Mitch Moroz. NHLE: 82GP, 3-3-6. Destination: Full AHL season. You can’t develop prospects if you don’t play them, so a year in the ECHL would have been better for him. He did have (reportedly) some health issues but the best thing for him is a new start and 500 at-bats in Bakersfield.
  33. L Evan Campbell. NHLE: 82GP, 7-8-15. Destination: UMass-Lowell and another NCAA season. Now 22, he does seem to have a good shot and that makes him a little unique on the prospect list.
  34. L Josh Winquist. NHLE: 82GP, 8-11-19. Destination: AHL all year, possibly ECHL if numbers dictate. I really liked his first pro year but it didn’t get him an NHL contract. Smart player, has another shot at it.
  35. G Miroslav Svoboda. Destination: Somewhere in Czech Republic. He’s a wild card but does have some nice bubbling under numbers and a strong performance at the world juniors. You never know.
  36. L Connor Rankin. NHLE: 82GP, 11-16-27. Destination: AHL/ECHL contract. Scoring winger in the WHL (32 goals) and you never know.
  37. L Braden Christoffer. NHLE: 82GP, 9-11-20. Destination: AHL/ECHL contract. He’s an interesting signing and he possesses a somewhat unique skill set. We’ll see but he has a nice opportunity with this organization. He’s a tough, skill winger who might have been drafted but 5.10 probably held him back.
  38. L Aidan Muir. NHLE: 82GP, 4-6-10. Destination: Another NCAA season in Western Michigan. Big forward didn’t play a lot last year, but that’s not unusual for a freshman in the NCAA. We’ll know more next spring.
  39. G Ty Rimmer. Destination: Whatever’s left. He’s playing pro hockey next season and goalies come from a long way back more often than any other position.
  40. G KevEN Bouchard. Destination: Another QMJHL season with a SP in the .880s.  Bouchard has not been able to establish himself as a consistent junior goalie, so the pro level may not await him.
  41. D Martin Gernat NHLE: 82GP, 1-7-8. Destination: ECHL, AHL or Europe. It’s difficult to project Gernat anywhere in the organization and we could hear sometime this summer about a quiet buyout.

 

 

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120 Responses to "DESTINATION UNKNOWN"

  1. spoiler says:

    I’m guessing many of these numbers will be adjusted by games played when the RE series hits the newsstands?

    Oh dammit. They are NHLEs.

    It’s not my fault… “Steve Smith” poked me in the eye with a stick.

  2. Lowetide says:

    spoiler:
    I’m guessing many of these numbers will be adjusted by games played when the RE series hits the newsstands?

    Yes. These are NHLE’s, which are a guide to the RE but TOI isn’t factored. A bump for McDavid is certain, haven’t decided about Leon yet.

  3. G Money says:

    The NerdAlert “On the G Money” Regression of Elite Players NHLE pegs McDavid at .906 ppg.
    The NerdAlert Skynet model pegs him at 0.878 ppg.

    The Fan Boy in me says 4.5 ppg! He’s going to do something no NHL player has ever done, which is play 90 regular season games in a single season! Plus his plays are going to be so amazing, he’s going to be awarded BOTH a goal and an assist on the same goal at least a dozen times!

    There you have it: 417 points next year. Book it!

  4. G Money says:

    spoiler: It’s not my fault… “Steve Smith” poked me in the eye with a stick.

    If that was even a real stick.

  5. sliderule says:

    Nice.!

    Posts like this show all the work you put into this blog and why I come to read every day.

  6. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    The NerdAlert “On the G Money” Regression of Elite Players NHLE pegs McDavid at .906 ppg.
    The NerdAlert Skynet model pegs him at 0.878 ppg.

    Seems like a sweet spot in there somewhere. The GP is the next issue and I’m tempted to run him up close to full. He did miss time this season but it was a freak accident (who put a fight in the script?) and he’s unlikely to do that again.

    Right? RIGHT?

  7. G Money says:

    *** NERD ALERT RECAP FROM A FEW DAYS AGO *** The survey for making a crowdsourced prediction of the Oiler goal differential next year is almost full! Only six spots left – get yours before its gone!

  8. G Money says:

    Lowetide: Seems like a sweet spot in there somewhere. The GP is the next issue and I’m tempted to run him up close to full. He did miss time this season but it was a freak accident (who put a fight in the script?) and he’s unlikely to do that again.

    Right? RIGHT?

    I’m tellin’ ya. Generational player. NINETY GAMES!

  9. Lowetide says:

    G Money: I’m tellin’ ya.Generational player.NINETY GAMES!

    STOP IT!!!! I’M NOW TEMPTED!!!!

  10. Connor'sreal says:

    G Money: There you have it: 417 points next year. Book it!

    May as well round it to 420…

    I wonder if Sobey’s is going to gas the $1M Score n Win contest?

  11. blainer says:

    CMD = 92 pts

    Talbot = 928%

    TMC = Coach of the year

    Chia = GM of the year

    Oilers make playoffs !!

  12. Ducey says:

    No doubt CMD plays 90 games and scores 100’s of points. But the issue is going to be his D. He might be Sam Gagner on defense for his first season.

    That’s likely why the team goal differential might not improve as much as much as we might expect.

    At least thats what I put in the survey.

  13. malinpaul says:

    Trade package for OEL?

    Leon Draisaitl, Nikitin, Reinhart, 1st pick in 2016, 2nd pick in 2017

    what does it take to get a #1D?

  14. spoiler says:

    G Money: If that was even a real stick.

    Oh, it was “real” alright.

  15. stush18 says:

    I put my mcdavid RE at 59 points in 80 games.

    That’s about .75 ppg, and would have placed him pretty high in this years scoring race.

    If the NHL returns to less clutch and grab and more powerplays, then I would bump it up to around 70.

    If he beats any of my predictions, I will be very happy.

  16. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    malinpaul:
    Trade package for OEL?

    Leon Draisaitl, Nikitin, Reinhart, 1st pick in 2016, 2nd pick in 2017

    what does it take to get a #1D?

    I’m sure that would do it. Would his fine play be enough to offset losing that much talent? Both of the awesome Swedes’ teams have good goalies but still lose. Pronger or Nedermayer they are not.

  17. David says:

    malinpaul:
    Trade package for OEL?

    Leon Draisaitl, Nikitin, Reinhart, 1st pick in 2016, 2nd pick in 2017

    what does it take to get a #1D?

    That’s just not worth it. Massive packages of promising young guns and first round picks like the Buffalo trade for McDavid aren’t worth it. The only way to aquire a piece like OEL is to use one of our top prizes (Hall, Nuge, McDavid) and to that I say no thanks. I like the future (near future) of our D.

  18. Halfwise says:

    malinpaul:
    Trade package for OEL?

    Leon Draisaitl, Nikitin, Reinhart, 1st pick in 2016, 2nd pick in 2017

    what does it take to get a #1D?

    Patience and luck. You have to draft and develop one, or trade for one before the other team knows what they have.

    Or be Calgary. (spits)

  19. blainer says:

    We lost A LOT of one goal games last year.. there is a solid chance CMD picks up 10 to 15 points in the overtime games alone… which would also put us in the playoff hunt. All that extra ice and playing with hall is gonna bring back memories of the 80’s oilers.. It really is quite possible he ends up at a point per game as he will have exceptional talent for linemates..

  20. Bag of Pucks says:

    That list really demonstrates the progress this org is making with their talent pipeline. It wasn’t that long ago (ie pre-Stu) that these lists contained a few prospects and a laundry list of suspects. That prospects/suspects ratio is improving with each passing year.

    Competition. It may truly be the mantra for this team going forward.

    Don’t care what anyone says. He is, was and will always be The Magnificent Bastard.

  21. Bag of Pucks says:

    How sweet would it be if McDavid posts 97 points in his rookie season?

    If there’s any justice in the world, he’ll tie an LA King for the Art Ross and win it on goal differential ; )

  22. Zelepukin says:

    blainer:
    We lost A LOT of one goal games last year.. there is a solid chance CMD picks up 10 to 15 points in the overtime games alone… which would also put us in the playoff hunt. All that extra ice and playing with hall is gonna bring back memories of the 80’s oilers.. It really is quite possible he ends up at a point per game as he will have exceptionaltalent for linemates..

    There must have been at least 5 games we lost in OT due to #becauseoilers and #jultzing.

  23. "Steve Smith" (formerly stick-wielding) says:

    spoiler: Oh, it was “real” alright.

    I think that I should be the only one allowed to make indecipherable comments about myself.

  24. Lowetide says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly stick-wielding): I think that I should be the only one allowed to make indecipherable comments about myself.

    Well, you’re the all-time leader in the category. Does that help?

  25. oliveoilers says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly stick-wielding): I think that I should be the only one allowed to make indecipherable comments about myself.

    What happened to “Formerly of Peace River”? I live near there. I started asking questions. A lot of slammed doors and “no comment”.

  26. GCW_69 says:

    G Money:
    *** NERD ALERT RECAP FROM A FEW DAYS AGO *** The survey for making a crowdsourced prediction of the Oiler goal differential next year is almost full!Only six spots left – get yours before its gone!

    Gone

  27. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    That list really demonstrates the progress this org is making with their talent pipeline. It wasn’t that long ago (ie pre-Stu) that these lists contained a few prospects and a laundry list of suspects. That prospects/suspects ratio is improving with each passing year.

    Competition. It may truly be the mantra for this team going forward.

    Don’t care what anyone says. He is, was and will always be The Magnificent Bastard.

    Winter 2010 list delivered Hall, Eberle, Dubnyk, Petry, Lander, Marincin,

    https://lowetide.ca/2010/12/18/2010-winter-top-20/

  28. Bag of Pucks says:

    First Horcoff and now quite likely, Ference.

    Looks like the Oil should just project the player most likely to be bought out and pin the C on him

    The Captain Justin Schultz. It does have a ring to it.

    Btw, how effin greedy was Pocklington? He had Gretzky on a bargain basement deal his entire career and the minute he approaches free agency, Puck sells him to the nearest grifter he could find. If only we could’ve arranged a ‘buyout’ of Pocklington, say around 1987ish.

    8 Cups for that team? 9 maybe…

  29. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: Winter 2010 list delivered Hall, Eberle, Dubnyk, Petry, Lander, Marincin,

    https://lowetide.ca/2010/12/18/2010-winter-top-20/

    We won’t find more graphic evidence of your 5 year rule than that.

    Ten months ago Lander and Dubnyk were not looking like feathers in caps.

  30. Rondo says:

    malinpaul:
    Trade package for OEL?

    Leon Draisaitl, Nikitin, Reinhart, 1st pick in 2016, 2nd pick in 2017

    what does it take to get a #1D?

    Tthe Draft Lottery will be utilized to assign the top three drafting slots in the NHL Draft, an expansion over previous years when the Draft Lottery was used to determine the winner of the first overall selection only.

    Three draws will be held: the 1st Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting first overall, the 2nd Lottery draw will determine the Club selecting second overall and the 3rd Lottery draw will determine the club selecting third overall.

    As a result of this change, the team earning the fewest points during the regular season will no longer be guaranteed, at worst, the second overall pick. That club could fall as low as fourth overall.

    “Jakob Chychrun” a potential #1 D

  31. Doug McLachlan says:

    G Money,

    Looks like it’s all full (or can’t be accessed by my BlackBerry).

    Interestingly I was looking at goal differential earlier today.

    My back of the envelope calculation suggested that Talbot being league average for 50ish games and Scrivens being career average for 30ish games is enough to halve that deficit.

    While I suspect the synergy of McDavid will trickle through the line-up but I tried to be conservative and suggested that the replacement of Roy by McDavid would have a net + effect of around 40 pts. This is right about the same improvement Kane’s arrival in Chicago generated.

    Combined, I see the additions of McDavid and Talbot capable of drawing the Oilers even. Probably not enough to take us to the playoffs but as Dustrock and I have discussed, surely the Hockey Gods could favour us with a year of PDO.

  32. striatic says:

    G Money:
    The NerdAlert “On the G Money” Regression of Elite Players NHLE pegs McDavid at .906 ppg.
    The NerdAlert Skynet model pegs him at 0.878 ppg.

    The Fan Boy in me says 4.5 ppg!He’s going to do something no NHL player has ever done, which is play 90 regular season games in a single season!Plus his plays are going to be so amazing, he’s going to be awarded BOTH a goal and an assist on the same goal at least a dozen times!

    There you have it: 417 points next year.Book it!

    sure, but what will his +/- be, huh?

  33. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    First Horcoff and now quite likely, Ference.

    Looks like the Oil should just project the player most likely to be bought out and pin the C on him

    The Captain Justin Schultz. It does have a ring to it.

    Btw, how effin greedy was Pocklington? He had Gretzky on a bargain basement deal his entire career and the minute he approaches free agency, Puck sells him to the nearest grifter he could find. If only we could’ve arranged a ‘buyout’ of Pocklington, say around 1987ish.

    8 Cups for that team?9 maybe…

    So we’re getting a 2030 7th round pick and Phil Lynott?

  34. BlueNoteNorth says:

    sliderule:
    Nice.!

    Posts like thisshow all the work you put into this blog and why I come to read every day.

    This. Very interesting post LT.

  35. dustrock says:

    I figure McDavid at 65 points. 75 points if it’s a top 5 PP.

  36. striatic says:

    Regarding GP on McDavid, is there any way to figure out the relative injury rates of rookie LWs versus Cs, given the worry that starting McDavid on wing presents an injury risk?

  37. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: So we’re getting a 2030 7th round pick and Phil Lynott?

    I have a photo of myself standing beside the Phil Lynott statue in Dublin.

    LOVE Thin Lizzy.

    Sod Bono. Phil is the father of Irish rock n roll in my books.

  38. Lowetide says:

    Bag of Pucks: I have a photo of myself standing beside the Phil Lynott statue in Dublin.

    LOVE Thin Lizzy.

    Sod Bono. Phil is the father of Irish rock n roll in my books.

    I bought Jailbreak (album) without knowing the band at all (did that a lot in 1976!) but the album cover was WAY OUT THERE! Loved the album and of course the singles!

  39. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    Connor’sreal:
    I wonder if Sobey’s is going to gas the $1M Score n Win contest?

    We call it Safeway out here.

    One entry is drawn prior to each regular season and playoff Vancouver Canucks’, Calgary Flames’, Edmonton Oilers’ and Winnipeg Jets’ game during the 2014-2015 NHL season. If five (5) goals are scored during one of the abovementioned games by a player of one of the abovementioned teams (excluding goals scored during a shootout), Promotivate LP, (hereafter sometimes referred to as the “Judges” or “Promotivate”) will make all reasonable efforts to contact the person whose name was drawn. If the Judges, acting reasonably, cannot contact the selected entrant within ten (10) business days of the date of the relevant game, another name will be drawn. The Judges will then make reasonable efforts to contact that person within ten (10) further business days, failing which another name will be drawn, and so on, until a selected entrant is contacted. There can be only one (1) $1,000,000 annuity prize winner during the contest period.

    First off, I suspect this contest is fully insured based on heaps o’ historical data, liberally projected. So really, Conner was in the model right from the start (full disclosure: that sour-looking guy holding up the Edmonton Oilers lottery gold card has heaps o’ shares in SportsRarity Re, whose minions were—statistically speaking—counting on one of the other twenty-six teams to hedge Thor’s hammer).

    Given the likely insurance situation, I bet they let the promotion ride. I personally wouldn’t mind if they changed the jingle to “if any Calgary Flame player scores five goals, or any Edmonton Oiler player scores seven goals …” In fact, I could listen to that all night.

    Ahhhhhh, our very own special-rule wound salt.

    What I can observe here is that they could invest a little more not in their actuarial staff, but in their legal staff.

    When the day comes that Daniel[*] and Conner trade five goals each in the same game they’re going to dearly wish that paragraph quoted above specified an official spoils-division procedure.

    Having not spelled it out, what they will probably try to say is that the prize was awarded at the time the first player in the game notched his fifth tally and thereby stiff the Oiler fan riding the ticket of Connor’s on-demand fifth-goal equal-upsmanship.

    Frickin’ weasels.

    But anyways, it will all be sooooooo awesome even our brand new goal horn will get a nose bleed.

    Bonus footnote:

    [*] I suspect Daniel’s not so far gone yet that he can’t pylon TCAF on consecutive shifts.

  40. thejonrmcleod says:

    So Stauffer is dropping hints about which defenseman the Oilers might sign/acquire.

  41. Lowetide says:

    thejonrmcleod:
    So Stauffer is dropping hints about which defenseman the Oilers might sign.

    He mentioned the agency. Same agency as Curtis Glencross, who we’ve discussed here

  42. G Money says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly stick-wielding): I think that I should be the only one allowed to make indecipherable comments about myself.

    Is that even your “real” shtick?

  43. Pouzar says:

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 6m6 minutes ago
    Getting asked a lot about Cody Franson. Useful 2nd pairing right shot D. But, another Sports Corporation client is the one to watch IMO…

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer 2m2 minutes ago
    …Brent Seabrook has been a vital cog to the ‘Hawks dynasty. Will need an extension like the Phaneuf deal. Stud D and a leader

  44. striatic says:

    I still don’t understand why you trade for a year of Seabrook instead of waiting for him to go UFA.

    Having Sekera in place does make the idea more appealing though, as the extra year of Seabrook wouldn’t be totally wasted.

  45. Thor762 says:

    G Money:
    *** NERD ALERT ***

    Survey results in!We’re making the playoffs!(probably)

    https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/07/07/survey-results-the-oiler-goal-differential-for-next-year-is/

    WOOOOOOT!

  46. Johnny says:

    Lowetide: Seems like a sweet spot in there somewhere. The GP is the next issue and I’m tempted to run him up close to full. He did miss time this season but it was a freak accident (who put a fight in the script?) and he’s unlikely to do that again.

    Right? RIGHT?

    Here’s hoping he NEVER takes advice from Taylor Hall…

  47. Bank Shot says:

    striatic:
    I still don’t understand why you trade for a year of Seabrook instead of waiting for him to go UFA.

    Having Sekera in place does make the idea more appealing though, as the extra year of Seabrook wouldn’t be totally wasted.

    Seabrook has a no trade clause. If he waived it to come to Edmonton I assume he would be open to signing an extension.

    You’d trade for him to get his services for this year, plus have the inside track to resign him.

  48. Doug McLachlan says:

    Pouzar:
    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer6m6 minutes ago
    Getting asked a lot about Cody Franson. Useful 2nd pairing right shot D. But, another Sports Corporation client is the one to watch IMO…

    Bob Stauffer ‏@Bob_Stauffer2m2 minutes ago
    …Brent Seabrook has been a vital cog to the ‘Hawks dynasty. Will need an extension like the Phaneuf deal. Stud D and a leader

    I understand Chicago wanting to shed $ but is resigning Oduya worth Seabrook?

  49. Pajamah says:

    Doug McLachlan: I understand Chicago wanting to shed $ but is resigning Oduya worth Seabrook?

    A re-signed Oduya plus say Yakupov, 2 picks in 2016 and a good prospect might be.

  50. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    With Seabrook:

    Sekera / Fayne
    Klefbom / Seabrook
    Nurse GR / Gryba

    Schultz is an expensive 7th. And a lot of salary to shed and risk with Seabrook’s contract. But that group isn’t bad. Actually very good.

    I have no idea what anybody will do especially with Pete being stealthy like.

  51. RexLibris says:

    Have the ppg projections for McDavid taken into consideration that he could be seeing 2nd unit powerplay time (which corresponds to 2nd unit PK opposition) under a McLellan/Woodcroft/Johnson powerplay scheme?

    I think the potential is there for a slightly higher projection than some of us might otherwise consider.

  52. Bag of Pucks says:

    Lowetide: I bought Jailbreak (album) without knowing the band at all (did that a lot in 1976!) but the album cover was WAY OUT THERE! Loved the album and of course the singles!

    This might be the best cover of a Bob Seger tune ever.

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cSo9CC2wKVI&sns=em

    Love the breakdown at the end. Funky rhythm riff. Phil’s soulful vocal and those harmony guitar lines. Signature.

    You youngsters that worship at the feet of Maiden and Metallica. Go back and check out the source. Lizzy.

    Seger was another guy. I had no idea. Just knew as him the top 40 singles machine. Had no idea of the treasure trove of gutbucket rock n roll he released before he hit the mainstream. Sublime voice.

  53. Ray says:

    Seabrook!!!!!!!

    Whoooooot!

    Bob, still my beating heart!

  54. Thor762 says:

    Didn’t Jason Gregor have an article where he said a source had mentioned that Seabrook wouldn’t have a problem going to Edmonton?

  55. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ray:
    Seabrook!!!!!!!

    Whoooooot!

    Bob, still my beating heart!

    Love it.

    Not buying it.

    Open to being convinced.

    The plan had been to deal Sharp so as to sign Saad but now maybe they find the $ elsewhere but still, really, really hard to believe they would let him go.

  56. Pouzar says:

    Don’t do it Chia.

  57. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    I had a thought (it’s been a crazy day, I know).

    Buyout should be Ference for one reason above all else. If they can’t trade him then in an expansion they will likely be forced to protect him (based on past rules with NMC).

    Otherwise the fear becomes having to buy out both players within two years of each other.

  58. Ray says:

    Ok, sorry about that.

    If Stan Bowman has determined that Seabrook is to be traded and not one of the pillars to build the team around with Toews Kane and Keith then who are you targeting for a trade from the oilers?

    This again this is presuming there is a motivation to make that trade at all let alone with a potential conference rival.

    I’m thinking you look to fill the hole left by his departure the closest way possible. I’m thinking that’s Fayne, as Jultz is, well… Jultz.

    Jultz is already on the Chicago roster. His name is David Runblad.

    Fayne, Yak1, Yak2 and a first rounder. Something in that range is how I see the potential fantasy cost of one year of Seabrook.

  59. Doug McLachlan says:

    till_horcoff_is_coach,

    The CBA states, at 11.3(c) IIRC, that NMC do not apply to expansion drafts or relocation. That said, Ference’s contract is only for 2 years and would be over by the anticipated 2017-2018 expansion draft.

  60. G Money says:

    The biggest part of the return to Chicargo for Seabrook in any trade is cap space.

    Unless a bad contract is going back the other way (unlikely), additional sweetener should not need to be very substantial given a. its one friggin year to end of contract, b. there aren’t that many teams that can/will want to absorb that kind of cap hit.

  61. RexLibris says:

    What’s the Seabrook ask, though?

    Yakupov and a 1st round pick?

    I don’t like that swap for the following reasons:

    – Oilers are trying to trend up.

    – Yakupov is affordable.

    – His ceiling is yet to be determined.

    – This could be the first significant professional coaching experience of his entire life.

    – Seabrook would need to be re-signed this January and would be looking for both term and money in excess of his current cap hit.

    – Seabrook is at the top of his game and projects to decline, even if only incrementally, over the next six to seven years, the maximum allowable term available to him were he to sign with the Oilers.

    – Any cap space committed to Seabrook is, almost by definition, taken away from one of Nurse, Klefbom and Reinhart, not to mention potentially Draisaitl, McDavid, and Yakupov should he remain with the team.

    – The cap almost assuredly will not increase over the next four years at the same rate it increased over the previous five.

    – I understand the arguments in favour of adding Seabrook are centered around the concept of a bird in the hand and the need for immediate improvement; I do not believe that the Seabrook of 2015-2016 will be enough of a factor to improve the team relative to the cost of acquiring him for this coming season but most importantly for the seasons following immediately thereafter.

  62. Ducey says:

    CHI just won the Cup with 4 D and they are going to trade their second or third best one ?

    I have some trouble believing that.

  63. RexLibris says:

    Speeds sent Stauffer his opinion on the Seabook item today and he was right.

    That the pricetag, both immediately and into the future, would likely not be worth the benefit of adding him (I would include “relative to the remaining options at this time”).

  64. Ray says:

    Klefbom-Sekera
    Nurse-Seabrook
    Ference-Reinhart
    Gryba

    Nikitin, bought out
    Jultz traded to the highest (or only) bidder

  65. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ray,

    Chicago’s problem is $.

    At Seabrook’s $5.7M, Chicago is already over the cap – and he’s not signed for next year.

    Chicago only has (with Seabrook) 4 d-men. They are also needing to resign Kruger up front – who is due a raise.

    Still think the hope for Chicago is to deal Sharp or Bickell but, as I say, I’m open to being convinced.

  66. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris:
    Have the ppg projections for McDavid taken into consideration that he could be seeing 2nd unit powerplay time (which corresponds to 2nd unit PK opposition) under a McLellan/Woodcroft/Johnson powerplay scheme?

    I think the potential is there for a slightly higher projection than some of us might otherwise consider.

    These aren’t projections. They are coming. I’m undecided on the PP. McLellan is a wizard, I think he may suspend Brad Hunt from the derrick.

  67. "Steve Smith" (formerly stick-wielding) says:

    G Money: Is that even your “real” shtick?

    If I didn’t have inside knowledge suggesting the opposite, I’d almost think that I set you up for that line deliberately. Sublimely played.

  68. "Steve Smith" (formerly stick-wielding) says:

    RexLibris:
    What’s the Seabrook ask, though?

    Yakupov and a 1st round pick?

    For one year of (a very well paid) Brent Seabrook? That’s orders of magnitude beyond what I’d expect, especially given Chicago’s cap problems..

  69. "Steve Smith" (formerly stick-wielding) says:

    oliveoilers: What happened to “Formerly of Peace River”?I live near there.I started asking questions.A lot of slammed doors and “no comment”.

    I’m still formerly of Peace River – born there, but grew up here in Edmonton. Still go back for the occasional trial. Actually, the first trial of my career was in Falher. It didn’t go well, for reasons that I’ll refrain from committing to a medium of any permanence.

    Where do you live?

  70. Doug McLachlan says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly stick-wielding): For one year of (a very well paid) Brent Seabrook?That’s orders of magnitude beyond what I’d expect, especially given Chicago’s cap problems..

    Agreed. Too rich for a player you haven’t assessed yet.

  71. Ray says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Does the price of Seabrook go down if Bickel goes with him? I’d take him and drop the first from my previous proposal

  72. Dicky94 says:

    RexLibris,

    I agree. Wait until next summer and possibly trade a pick to get his rights if Chicago is unable to extend him. Once the league watches a full season of McDavid every player in the league will waive their NTC to go to Edmonton. As for now…. Trade Shultz , buyout Nikky and sign Franson for three years.

  73. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide: I think he may suspend Brad Hunt from the derrick.

    Wait,…in a Benito Mussolini kind of way or what? Because if we’re going that direction I’m pretty sure fans would have rope for some others well before we got around to Hunt.

    Also, GMoney is right. McDavid plays 90 games this year.

    82 NHL games…

    …and 8 playoff games as the Oilers sweep the Flames and Canucks in back-to-back series before bowing out to Chicago in 7 in the Western Conference Final.

    Okay, my math is off there, but still, I like the narrative.

  74. RexLibris says:

    Dicky94:
    RexLibris,

    I agree. Wait until next summer and possibly trade a pick to get his rights ifChicago is unable to extend him. Once the league watches a full season of McDavidevery player in the league will waive their NTC to go to Edmonton.As for now…. Trade Shultz , buyout Nikky and sign Franson for three years.

    I’d rather they buyout Ference, sign Ehrhoff on a 1 or 2 year deal, and move Nikitin at the deadline.

    This team might be close at the deadline, but I’m not predicting playoffs. Moving Nikitin for picks gives them more assets at next year’s draft.

    Take a look a the number of potential FAs next summer.

    If you are right about Edmonton becoming a hot spot, and it is reasonable to entertain the idea, then you move one of those picks for the rights and sign the player before free-agency hits and you’ve essentially traded Nikitin for player X who is almost certainly going to be a more effective contributor.

  75. Kmart99 says:

    Even if Chicago decides they can’t afford Seabrook, that doesn’t change the fact that there will be teams lining up for even just one year of his services.

    A first round pick will not get it done. Yak + a 1st seems fair. Especially if Seabrook re-signs. He’s on the decline, with likely only 2-3 years of really high level play left, and then a steeper and steeper drop off after that.

    My question would be this: How valuable is winning during McDavid’s 3 ELC years?

    If you’re always planning for 5 years down the road, what happens when in 5 years you’re still too busy planning for 5 years from then?

    Besides, who knows exactly who might become available or who might emerge during the next 3 years…

    For me, 1 year of one of the 10-15 best dmen in the league + a chance at signing him longer is worth a 1st and maybe Yak if that’s what it takes.

  76. HiddenDarts says:

    Bob spent about 20 minutes of his show drooling about Seabrook today. Still doesn’t make him worth trading for.

    I’m kind of stunned about what I’m hearing from some posters here. One minute you’re talking down the rather “mixed” accomplishments of MacT (not to mention his terrifying near-misses), and the next you’re talking about how brilliant it would be to trade assets and picks for one year of Seabrook before opening up the chequebook for a 7×7 deal that might be worth it for two or three years in the absolute best case scenario.

    Some of these “Official Armchair-GM” designations are on pretty shaky ground right now…

  77. RexLibris says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly stick-wielding): For one year of (a very well paid) Brent Seabrook?That’s orders of magnitude beyond what I’d expect, especially given Chicago’s cap problems..

    Agreed.

    I wonder if they’d look at Reinhart being the principal in the return.

    Gives them a D-man they can financially control for some time and immediate cap space.

  78. Lowetide says:

    HiddenDarts:
    Bob spent about 20 minutes of his show drooling about Seabrook today. Still doesn’t make him worth trading for.

    I’m kind of stunned about what I’m hearing from some posters here. One minute you’re talking down the rather “mixed” accomplishments of MacT (not to mention his terrifying near-misses), and the next you’re talking about how brilliant it would be to trade assets and picks for one year of Seabrook before opening up the chequebook for a 7×7 deal that might be worth it for two or three years in the absolute best case scenario.

    Some of these armchair GM designations are on pretty shaky ground…

    I knew I relaxed on Yakupov too soon.

  79. Lowetide says:

    RexLibris: Agreed.

    I wonder if they’d look at Reinhart being the principal in the return.

    Gives them a D-man they can financially control for some time and immediate cap space.

    No.

  80. Pouzar says:

    HiddenDarts:
    Bob spent about 20 minutes of his show drooling about Seabrook today. Still doesn’t make him worth trading for.

    I’m kind of stunned about what I’m hearing from some posters here. One minute you’re talking down the rather “mixed” accomplishments of MacT (not to mention his terrifying near-misses), and the next you’re talking about how brilliant it would be to trade assets and picks for one year of Seabrook before opening up the chequebook for a 7×7 deal that might be worth it for two or three years in the absolute best case scenario.

    Some of these “Official Armchair-GM” designations are on pretty shaky ground right now…

    This.

  81. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    The Oilers could almost absorb Seabrook as the roster stands. If they manage the roster well they won’t see a hard crunch. If they are interested in Seabrook you’d think Marincin should have gone that way because he’s a Hawk type D and dirt cheap. I’d rather rehab JS on 3rd pairing than have Gryba.

    The Hawks need about 7M in cap to get up to 23 men. They need to sign 3 players and no big paydays. They only trade Seabrook if he wants a huge payday and won’t extend IMO.

  82. Doug McLachlan says:

    TOMAK! The River Tomak! In winter!

    Toronto dealt one of the most consistent goal scorers in the league, signed long-term and agreed to lessen the cap hit to $6.5M.

    They dealt additional contracts to complete the deal and netted essentially a lottery-protected pick, and a bottom 6-roster player and a B+ grade prospect (and certainly not Pittsburgh’s best).

    Toronto had time and did not, for cap reasons at least, have to trade him.

    No question Seabrook is dreamy but the deal is not for anything more than 1 year. He’s worth a lottery protected 1st and a less expensive d-man. Say Nikitin with the Oilers retaining half his salary. The idea that you would deal Yak on a great bridge deal that ends with him still an RFA for any 1 year player is insane.

    That would be MacT “bold” not Chia.

  83. Kmart99 says:

    1 year of Seabrook would likely mean playoffs during McDavid’s rookie season. I can’t say I wouldn’t overpay for that. Even if it meant letting him walk after 1 year if he won’t sign. Or if he asks too much, let him walk.

  84. Doug McLachlan says:

    Kmart99:
    1 year of Seabrook would likely mean playoffs during McDavid’s rookie season.I can’t say I wouldn’t overpay for that.Even if it meant letting him walk after 1 year if he won’t sign.Or if he asks too much, let him walk.

    If the Oilers are only one player away from the playoffs I would be stunned. I think we are close but not that close. Even if we are, then it’s because we have a young core that we need to build on not dismantle – certainly not for only one player.

  85. dustrock says:

    I wonder if LT is right and Stauffer actually meant GlenX and we all took the Seabrook bait.

  86. oliveoilers says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly stick-wielding): I’m still formerly of Peace River – born there, but grew up here in Edmonton.Still go back for the occasional trial.Actually, the first trial of my career was in Falher.It didn’t go well, for reasons that I’ll refrain from committing to a medium of any permanence.

    Where do you live?

    Used to live on Weberville Rd, now on an acreage south of Dixonville on Chinook Valley/Smith Mills Rd. Got the horsey life. Wife was born and raised in Peace.

    And Falher? Je t’aime Falher! Very big Bee…..

  87. Doug McLachlan says:

    dustrock:
    I wonder if LT is right and Stauffer actually meant GlenX and we all took the Seabrook bait.

    I see that Carey Price is also a Sports Corp client 😉

  88. Connor'sreal says:

    Bootstrap Effexor: We call it Safeway out here.

    Sobeys owns them.

  89. wheatnoil says:

    Doug McLachlan: I see that Carey Price is also a Sports Corp client

    So is Marincin.

  90. "Steve Smith" (formerly schtick-nadling) says:

    wheatnoil: So is Marincin.

    Sobey’s owns them both.

  91. Doug McLachlan says:

    wheatnoil: So is Marincin.

    The prodigal son returns. All is forgiven.

  92. Ducey says:

    Kmart99:
    1 year of Seabrook would likely mean playoffs during McDavid’s rookie season.I can’t say I wouldn’t overpay for that.Even if it meant letting him walk after 1 year if he won’t sign.Or if he asks too much, let him walk.

    A) playoffs are unlikely
    B) if you miss you might be giving up Yak and a lottery pick

    Even if you make the playoffs Seabrook walks.and you have no Yak or 1st rounder. Thats a bad hangover.

  93. Kmart99 says:

    How about this:

    1 yr of $eabrook + 4th rd pick

    For

    1st rd pick
    Reinhart
    Conditional 2nd rd pick if Oil make playoffs in 2015-16

  94. Really? says:

    Not a fan of a deal for Seabrook. Cost prohibitive in all likelihood. I believe there are or will be better opportunities in the near future.

  95. Kmart99 says:

    Ducey: A) playoffs are unlikely
    B) if you miss you might be giving up Yak and a lottery pick

    Even if you make the playoffs Seabrook walks.and you have no Yak or 1st rounder. Thats a bad hangover.

    If the Oil make the playoffs those memories last forever, as have the ones from the last 9 years.

  96. Kmart99 says:

    If Seabrook walks, he walks. If he asks too much, then the Oil walk.

    But 1 yr of Seabrook at 30yo + a chance at re-signing him has value. Maybe I’m more desperate for playoffs than most, and maybe I’ve grown tired of relying on future assets more than most, but to not even consider Seabrook would be a mistake.

    I’d give up more than next year’s first rd pick for 1 yr of Seabrook, as would/will the market.

  97. PunjabiOil says:

    Seabrook makes sense.

    – His wife is from Calgary, just had a kid, and they might want to settle down in Alberta now that he just turned 30.
    – He is an Alberta native
    – Seabrook has a no-trade clause, so it’s not as simple as ”there will be other teams in the mix.” He has some degree on say and control in the process.
    – Chicago may not want to commit long-term, so now may be the best time to obtain value
    – It’s Stauffer. When he drops names like that, it usually means something is brewing. He’s connected, no doubt.

    I think the concerns about a long-term deal (say 6-7 years) are overblown, if you think he can provide 4-5 solid years before tapering production, factored with a rising cap (inflationary effects), it may not be out of realm of possibility he plays out the contract efficiently. If he becomes a contributing factor in winning the cup, it would be well worth the price. Just look at how the Blackhawks overpaid at the top end (Campbell) and were able to get rid of the contract. There is value, especially with a rising cap, to overpay for difference makers.

    Of course everything depends on cost. I would be heavily reluctant to give up on Yakupov who can provide value over the next two years – but a 2016 1st and 2nd, and a prospect I can live with.

  98. AsiaOil says:

    You’ll be paying for Seabrook’s past not his future – not a smart use of assets – would much prefer a package for Larsson. But even more importantly – we need to see how Klef/Nurse/GR develop before spending serious assets – many of the answers to our defensive questions may already be in house.

  99. PunjabiOil says:

    You’ll be paying for Seabrook’s past not his future – not a smart use of assets.

    Depends on the acquisition cost.

    The kids will need veterans, and if Seabrook can play as a 2/3 d-man for the next 4-5 years, that has value.

    Just because someone turns 30 doesn’t mean they don’t have value. Pronger was 31 when he signed a 5 year deal in Edmonton.

    The Oilers best window is in the next 5 years – the length of Hall’s contract (though it won’t necessarily close shut right after).

    It’s time to expose some semblance of risk to the organization to move the dial forward.

  100. Bank Shot says:

    AsiaOil:
    You’ll be paying for Seabrook’s past not his future – not a smart use of assets – would much prefer a package for Larsson. But even more importantly – we need to see how Klef/Nurse/GR develop before spending serious assets – many of the answers to our defensive questions may already be in house.

    Chara was 29 when Boston acquired him.

    Seabrook’s wheels probably aren’t going to fall off at 32.

    Klef/Nurse/GR are probably not going to pan out anywhere near the player Seabrook is now. Signing Seabrook has some risk on the back end, but waiting for prospects to develop carries more risk IMO.

    Seabrook gives the Oilers a chance to win while McDavid is on an entry level contract, and Hall, Eberle, Hopkins, etc are still relatively cheap.

    If for some reason Seabrook is availible (I don’t think he is), you gotta go after that.

  101. Piedersehen says:

    Hi LT,

    Long time listener first time caller. What is your take on Zach Nagelvoort? I recall reading he made some nice saves in the scrimmage the other night and didn’t see him on your list above.

  102. Auf Piedersehen says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Hey PJO,

    Seabrook played in junior in Lethbridge but he’s from Tsawwassen, BC. Does not discount your other points however. Makes me a bit warmer to the idea of trading for him if that’s what they are plotting.

  103. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Ray:
    Klefbom-Sekera
    Nurse-Seabrook
    Ference-Reinhart
    Gryba

    Nikitin, bought out
    Jultz traded to the highest (or only) bidder

    people really forget about Fayne

  104. Doug McLachlan says:

    Don’t see Chicago trading Seabrook at all but certainly not now.

    They have time to clear space and can still match any legit offers on Kruger so long as Oduya is prepared to wait a while longer to re-up.

    The Oilers can be wait too. The team is already improved and nothing has been given away from the core (which includes Yakupov, until you are sure it doesn’t).

    If the trade happens, the Oilers hold the cards. They don’t need Seabrook today (he’s UFA next year) and the moment the trade presents itself as really possible, Chicago admits they have run out of time. At that point we are talking picks and/or B level prospects not a Yakupov, Nurse, Drai or even Reinhart.

  105. AsiaOil says:

    PunjabiOil,

    Thing is – Seabrook will be in decline right as the younger guys are ready to make some serious noise in 3 years – same with Sekera. Three years from now ‘s when it makes sense to sign another 30 year old and get the backend of his best years. If Seabrook would sign for 3 years that’s great – but he won’t – and the 3 years after that will be a steeply declining asset. CFP analogies not useful as he was one of this generation’s best dmen – Seabrook is certainly not that.

    We need a solid older guy signed for 2-3 years to bridge the gap until we know exactly what we have with Klef/Nurse/GR – that’s not Seabrook.

  106. rickithebear says:

    Seabrook
    09-10 1st comp 46.76 CA/60
    10-11 1st 50.27
    11-12 1st 51.17
    12-13 2nd 51.44
    13-14 2nd 49,02
    14-15 2nd 56.19 he fell off the cliff facing 2nd comp.
    he is not a 1st comp d.
    the drop to 2nd comp has not saved him!
    and might be following ferences decline were he is a 3rd comp d for 3 years and
    then drops beyond the mendoza line.
    WAAAAY to much risk!

    At least Oduya faces 1st’s
    12-13 1st 44.98
    13-14 1st 46.12
    14-15 1st 52.83
    Oduya over Seabrook makes sense.
    You drop oduya too 2nd and he should rack sub 50.00 CA/60
    risk keith at 1st’s see how norris he really is.
    Rundblad (14-15 48.42) paired with Oduya at 2nd’s

  107. rickithebear says:

    LadiesloveSmid: people really forget about Fayne

    he was one of the leagues best when in NJ.

    Sekara-Fayne ca/60 suggests likely top 5 1st comp D pair.

  108. Bank Shot says:

    AsiaOil:
    PunjabiOil,

    Thing is – Seabrook will be in decline right as the younger guys are ready to make some serious noise in 3 years – same with Sekera. Three years from now ‘s when it makes sense to sign another 30 year old and get the backend of his best years. If Seabrook would sign for 3 years that’s great – but he won’t – and the 3 years after that will be a steeply declining asset. CFP analogies not useful as he was one of this generation’s best dmen –Seabrook is certainly not that.

    We need a solid older guy signed for 2-3 years to bridge the gap until we know exactly what we have with Klef/Nurse/GR – that’s not Seabrook.

    I seriously doubt Seabrook is in heavy decline at 33.

    The Oilers are going to have to be making some tough choices in 3 years. If guys like Nurse, Draisaitl, McDavid, Klefbom, and Reinhart pan out then it looks like the OIlers will be the ones bleeding talent every season over the next 3-6 years.

    Even if just McDavid pans out, that means the Oilers will be tight to the cap and will be looking to trade guys for picks and prospects as the Eberle, Hall, and RNH deals expire.

    Time isn’t on their side. The Oilers need to get competitive right now.

    If Nurse, and Klefbom pan out as well as can be expected, the Oilers could trade Seabrook away.

    He’ll be a tradeable asset at 33.

  109. Adam Wu says:

    Kmart99:
    How about this:

    1 yr of $eabrook + 4th rd pick

    For

    1st rd pick
    Reinhart
    Conditional 2nd rd pick if Oil make playoffs in 2015-16

    You know, if this happens, then it means that after missing out on Hamilton, Chia converts the 16, 33 picks plus a few more picks next year into Seabrook….

  110. AsiaOil says:

    Bank Shot,

    Oilers are getting competitive now but do not need to make a big bet until CMD’s last season on his entry level deal – that’s likely his prime value per dollar season and the time to roll the dice and go for it – not now. We need a bridge guy on a 2-3 year deal to make us even more competitive this season and allow us to see what we have with Nurse/Klef/GR

  111. raventalon40 says:

    AsiaOil:
    Bank Shot,

    Oilers are getting competitive now but do not need to make a big bet until CMD’s last season on his entry level deal – that’s likely his prime value per dollar season and the time to roll the dice and go for it – not now. We need a bridge guy on a 2-3 year deal to make us even more competitive this season and allow us to see what we have with Nurse/Klef/GR

    I think the wild card here is Yakupov and Reinhart.

    If Yakupov doesn’t get traded this pre-season, his performance this season will seal his fate. He had a really good rookie season. Probably Calder-level despite the snub. But his last two seasons have been mired in a lack of confidence, as well as other ailments.

    I think that if Yakupov recovers this season, it forces a tough decision between him and Eberle. Do you try to keep both or deal from a position of strength and move one of them? The cap might go up, making the former possible. Or the emergence of a Chase or a Slepyshev might make this possible. Even if Yakupov exceeds expectations this season or the next, he won’t make more than the $6 million that Eberle currently pulls in. So that would represent a savings of approximately 3.5 million dollars ($12 – $8.5 million) per year, if one of them is dealt during the 2016-17 season. Then they might run to the bank and buy another free agent D-man. I don’t know.

    Reinhart is the other question mark. Does he emerge as an effective, young, 2-way or shutdown guy? Does Nurse pass him on the depth chart before he becomes established? This will effect whether he gets a 4.5 or 5.5 million a year salary like a Petry, or whether he gets a Kevin Klein type of salary as a mid-pairing guy? Or will he still be getting established by the 2016-17 season? The Reinhart question takes longer to answer than the Yakupov question, because as most people know, defenseman take longer to mature and even the earlier star performers sometimes struggle in their sophomore seasons (see Tyler Myers or Cam Fowler) only to make a recovery later in their career.

    If you ask me, for the Oilers to be competitive not only now but in the future, they have to get that third competent veteran hand to complement Sekera and Fayne. Somebody who can come in and bridge the gap as a stopgap option. Not only as a leader, but also as a bench presence and tutor. And judging from PC’s verbal, he’s on the same page about this. I think he makes a trade part-way through the season to address this, as other posters have mentioned, he’s not a wait-for-the-deadline kind of guy.

    The only thing I hope is that he can do is acquire that top pairing guy without giving up a core piece or selling the whole farm. I know you can’t have a free lunch (give up stuff of value for other stuff of value) but I think he can achieve it.

    The Seabrook option is intriguing because it would probably take just a 1st round pick, a roster player and a couple B-level prospects to make it happen, judging based on recent deals of cap-strapped teams.

    I think a deal for Seabrook around November-December of the 2015-16 season would look something like this:

    Brent Seabrook
    C-level prospect
    conditional 6th or 7th round pick based on Seabrook re-signing

    for

    1st round pick
    3rd round pick
    Nikita Nikitin
    Martin Gernat or William Lagesson (or both)

    I think that’s a decent trade value for a pending UFA, based on last season’s trade deadline.

    ————

    TL;DR

    I both agree and disagree. Need a vet now but also need time to evaluate. Buying high on Seabrook is not so bad if it prevents you from selling low on Yakupov and Reinhart in 2016-17.

    Yes Seabrook will want to sign long-term, but he will have trade value still in 2-3 years if it comes to that (assuming he doesn’t get a NMC).

  112. Bank Shot says:

    I think you can use a D like Seabrook anytime. However even if you decide you don’t need him for two years there is no guarantee that a Seabrook level D is available two years from now. A Guy of his level coming available is a rare occurance.

    Also, Seabrook could help prevent our young D from getting overpaid. If Nurse or Klefbom end up playing 25 minutes a night because of a lack of better options they can use that in contract negotiations.

  113. Lowetide says:

    Piedersehen:
    Hi LT,

    Long time listener first time caller.What is your take on Zach Nagelvoort?I recall reading he made some nice saves in the scrimmage the other night and didn’t see him on your list above.

    I thought he played well at the orientation camp game, made some nice stops. Having said that, no goalie looks good in a contest designed to showcase offense.

    On the bigger question, I liked him plenty after the draft, his SP’s going back were solid. He struggled this season, which happens, so the coming year is important. I think he’s the best goalie Edmonton has in the system (unsigned) but 2015-16 will be a big test for him in terms of getting a contract.

  114. Ryan says:

    G Money:
    The NerdAlert “On the G Money” Regression of Elite Players NHLE pegs McDavid at .906 ppg.
    The NerdAlert Skynet model pegs him at 0.878 ppg.

    The Fan Boy in me says 4.5 ppg!He’s going to do something no NHL player has ever done, which is play 90 regular season games in a single season!Plus his plays are going to be so amazing, he’s going to be awarded BOTH a goal and an assist on the same goal at least a dozen times!

    There you have it: 417 points next year.Book it!

    It’s July.

    I know I’m having the same problem.

    It’s really hard not to get ridiculously giddy thinking about McDavid…Mclellan.., the Oilers embarrassment of riches…

  115. GCW_69 says:

    Bank Shot: He’ll be a tradeable asset at 33.

    His next contract will undoubtedly come with a NMC. Anyone picking up Seabrook should assume they are keeping him until they buy him out.

  116. Doug McLachlan says:

    GCW_69,

    Or until Vegas/Quebec take him at the ’17/’18 expansion draft.

  117. TheGreatMcMutato says:

    G Money:

    There you have it: 417 points next year.Book it!

    I’ll take the over.

    Woooooooooooot!!

  118. russ99 says:

    I understand the excitement with Nurse (I feel it too!) but he hasn’t played against men yet. and Reinhart has, plus he has an NHL playoff game under his belt too.

    So you can swap those NHL arrival dates.

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