FUTURE GAMES

It was a splendid evening at the rink, but of course they all are. I have a few notes (below) on these young men but the bottom line is they’re talented kids, we’re lucky, and for God sakes enjoy your summer. Great gifts await us, but that’s it, no more lovely July evenings at the rink!

Sounds like Nilsson will get a chance to make the club, but will need to clear waivers if he doesn’t grab the backup job. It looks like competition for Ben Scrivens, but if Nilsson wins the job he and Cam Talbot will be the least experienced tandem in the NHL since, well, ever. I suspect the goalie story isn’t over, honestly thought we’d see a more experienced addition—and we may.

My own thoughts on it? I think Chiarelli wanted to light a fire under Scrivens’ ass (doubt it was needed, Scrivens is a smart guy and he knows the score) and it does give the team cover after last year and in case of injury. The risk is Nilsson getting claimed on waivers, but Markstrom is a better prospect and he cleared a year ago fall.

50-MAN LIST (47)

  1. G Cam Talbot (No. 1)
  2. G Ben Scrivens (On the way out of town?)
  3. G Anders Nilsson (New G, adds to competition)
  4. G Laurent Brossoit (AHL starter)
  5. G Eetu Laurikainen (A great damn bet)
  6. D Andrej Sekera (A massive add, Herculean add)
  7. D Mark Fayne (A big part of next year’s team)
  8. D Oscar Klefbom (The future and the present)
  9. D Justin Schultz (newly qualified)
  10. D Nikita Nikitin (He’ll make $4.5M, he owes Oilers $9M)
  11. D Eric Gryba (Another D-zone blue with NHL experience to help Fayne, Ference)
  12. D Andrew Ference (It’s possible he won’t play a lot)
  13. D Brandon Davidson (Could be No. 7 or first callup)
  14. D Griffin Reinhart (I predict he’ll play 49 NHL games in 2015-16)
  15. D Darnell Nurse (I predict he’ll play 70 NHL games in 2015-16)
  16. D Brad Hunt (He’ll see NHL time)
  17. D David Musil (Could get some NHL time)
  18. D Jordan Oesterle (Fast and skilled, could surprise)
  19. D Dillon Simpson (Probably a full season in Bakersfield)
  20. D Martin Gernat (They may try to get him off the roster)
  21. D Ben Betker (May need to spend some time in the ECHL if it gets crowded)
  22. D Joey Laleggia (Can learn plenty from Hunt and Oesterle in Bakersfield)
  23. C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (He’ll be a fantastic mentor for McDavid)
  24. C Connor McDavid (Franchise)
  25. C Anton Lander (With Gordon’s exit, more will go to Lander)
  26. C Mark Letestu (Strong option at C, he can play other positions)
  27. C Leon Draisaitl (Man amongst boys in Memorial Cup)
  28. C Bogdan Yakimov (Big C still developing, factor down the line)
  29. C Jujhar Khaira (Solid checker, offense may keep him from NHL career)
  30. C Kyle Platzer (New pro has two-way skills)
  31. L Taylor Hall (Things are lining up for a big season)
  32. L Benoit Pouliot (Important player for next season)
  33. L Lauri Korpikoski (Fast winger with experience, two-way skills. Mentor)
  34. L Matt Hendricks (May see minutes on skill line)
  35. L Luke Gazdic (How much will he play?)
  36. L Ryan Hamilton (he’ll be the veteran hand in the  minors helping to guide the kids)
  37. L Anton Slepyshev (Can’t wait to see him in TC)
  38. L Mitch Moroz (Should see way more action in Bakersfield in 2015-16)
  39. L Kale Kessy (Lost season to injury, another chance in 2015-16)
  40. R Jordan Eberle (Top RW primed for a big year)
  41. R Nail Yakupov  (He’s still here, people!)
  42. R Teddy Purcell (May lose minutes on skill line to Korpikoski, because speed)
  43. R Rob Klinkhammer (4line RW, crash and bang)
  44. R Tyler Pitlick (Newly qualified)
  45. R Iiro Pakarinen (Has a chance to make the team)
  46. R Andrew Miller (A strong option for NHL time in 2015-16)
  47. R Greg Chase (His game should flourish in pro’s)

Not much room left now, I like yesterday’s trade a great deal (in terms of value added versus given) and it certainly adds to goalie depth. PC will need to unload some of these players if there are new ones coming in, and surely we’re near the end of the roster movement now.

orientation 1

THE BILLY MOORES CUP

  • D Darnell Nurse. A man among boys, he swatted away opponents like flies. I would guess 95% of the falling came as a result of Nurse simply overwhelming players. Had some good battles, too. So mobile.
  • D Joey Laleggia. Such a good skater and very good with the puck. Tough to know about him defensively (this was four-on-four then three-on-three) but he stood out in a good way.
  • D William Lagesson. Taller and bigger than I thought he’d be, wiry kid, unusual skater. I like him.
  • D Caleb Jones. Has a better shot than I’d read, needs to fix the sights though. Mobile player, I think his no fuss style probably fits better in a more traditional setting.
  • D Ethan Bear. One of the players I was looking forward to watching, liked his skating and passing. He was a hair reckless with the puck a time or two and lost a physical battle down low (don’t remember opponent) but it was a nice showing.
  • D Ben Betker. Fantastic night. He’s big and fast, and performed very well in a game designed to expose his weaknesses, not accentuate his skills. I was very impressed.
  • D John Marino: Showed some nice flashes offensively, good speed and a nice shot. Got involved physically, too. You could see his age being a slight issue, but overall a nice job.
  • D Loik Leveille. Similar to Bear to my eye. His lack of speed wasn’t in evidence to me and he showed some nice puck handling ability. I hope they sign him, he would be my No. 1 choice among the eligibles.

orientation 4

  • C Connor McDavid. He’s amazing. His extra skating gear is intoxicating and delightful. We’ve trained our brains to expect a certain set of possibilities during a specific on-ice moment, and McDavid surprises us by defying our collective expectations about how things will go by getting past the cone and having enough space to drive to the net. It’s like magic. Reminder: Shinny game against other kids, basically a neighborhood pickup game. It means nothing. The skating is fantastic, though.
  • C Leon Draisaitl. His passing is so good, it’s shocking. Leon’s creativity is going to make some right handed shooter a pile of money. He made a dire mistake against McDavid but was flying most of the night and was obviously one of the best players on the ice.
  • C Kyle Platzer. A good night, he looks bigger (maybe taller?) from a year ago. More mature, maybe that’s it. Confident, too. Drove to the net well and shot the puck well.
  • R Greg Chase. On a night that belonged to the trio, Chase was the other player who showed an ability to drive play, own the puck and create. Might have passed more but let’s be honest it was a shinny game.
  • F Tyler Vesel. Nice passer, very creative.
  • L Evan Campbell. It’s funny, I’ve been reading about him for years and guess the words didn’t impress. Genuinely shocked he scored from where he did, it was a beautiful shot.
  • R John McCarron. Didn’t show much early but later in the game I noticed him. His style is probably not suited to this type of game but there’s some interesting tools here.
  • C Tyler Soy. Really liked him tonight. Doesn’t have great wheels, but terrific hands and he battled well. Forechecking forced some turnovers and he is a very skilled prospect.
  • L Braden Christoffer. Had the puck on his stick a lot and did good things with it.
  • C Alexis Loiseau. Really nice game. Skilled.
  • L Connor Rankin. Very involved, all of these older prospects were noticeable (and should have been).
  • F Luke Esposito. He was involved a lot. Like a whole lot. Drove to the net, passed well. Showed up offensively.

That’s all I have, reminder this wasn’t even an exhibition game. That said, the three gifted players in the group did some special things and the older players also showed well. It was a fun event for a most worthy cause, and I congratulate the Oilers for devoting the evening to it.

orientation 5

THE HOCKEY NEWS

  • Chiarelli on Anders Nilsson: “He’s a big goalie. He might not have been dealt the greatest cards when he came over (to North America). He had a strong year in the KHL. He had an average World Championships. I saw him in one game when I went over there. He’s still young for a goalie. He was excited to hear that he has a new start. The bottom line is there is going to be competition. There is going to be competition amongst the goalies and that’s why. We want that. It gives us insurance and it gives us competition.” Source

I really like this bet, it’s similar to the Eetu Laurikainen bet in that he posted strong SP’s in a very good Euro league and may be ready for NHL action. Lots of online chatter about an illness during his last trip to NA (B-12 deficiency based on what I’ve read) but we’ll see about him this fall. If you’re giving up Liam Coughlin in a trade for someone who may be able to help in the coming season, that’s a fine bet in my opinion. Coughlin’s college career begins this fall and he’ll be at least two years there one suspects. The .936SP in KHL play last season and the friendly cap hit ($1M) makes this a nice move with low risk (waivers).

  • Chiarelli on Darnell Nurse: “What we told Darnell in our exit meetings is don’t be disheartened by the number of one-way contracts or NHL defencemen. We’re going to have a competition so don’t be disheartened by it. He’s a big, strong kid who can skate and defend and he’s up the ice a lot… He’s strong, he defends, he’s a good pupil and he’s young so he’s got a lot of good things going for him.” Source

Nurse is so mobile, big and strong I can’t see him spending time in Bakersfield unless the club adds some quality. If Todd McLellan comes to camp, feels rookie errors (and learning here) can be tolerated because of Nurse’s skills, then I think he makes the team. I like Griffin Reinhart as a prospect, but this young man is on a different level because he’s legit fast. That means he can recover quickly, close a gap, won’t get beaten as often, and if they run him all year Edmonton should have a more finished product by next summer. This isn’t a teenager we’re talking about here, Darnell Nurse turned 20 in February, impressed in the playoffs, went to OKC and played very well there. In pro hockey. In many ways, Oiler fans are more familiar with the defense than Peter Chiarelli ever could be (we watched it every night), so when Chiarelli talks about competition being open that tells me Nurse is already well on his way to making the team. Open competition? Music! If that’s true, I can’t see any way Nurse doesn’t make the big club. Seriously.

At the start of training camp (as things stand) I imagine the depth chart will be something like:

  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Klefbom—Schultz
  • Nikitin—Gryba
  • Ference—Reinhart
  • Nurse—Davidson
  • Hunt—Musil
  • Oesterle—Simpson
  • Betker—Laleggia
  • Five tons of rock
  • Martin Gernat

I think Nurse wins a job on the third pairing if it’s an open competition. Things that could impact (aside from injury) include another trade (for a legit top 4D), a poor camp by Nurse or a great one by Nikitin. He has an excellent shot at making this team on merit.

When_Harry_Met_Sally_155

 LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

10 this morning, we hit the ground running with fabulous guests, TSN1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Jonathan Willis, Cult of Hockey. Is Chiarelli done? What’s he doing with the goalers?
  • Guy Flaming, Pipeline Show. Oilers have Papirny, Soy and Leveille in camp. Do they sign any of them?
  • Andrew Bucholtz, 55-Yard Line. Those damn RedBlacks went and got good on us, now they play the Eskimos. Drat!
  • Rob Soria, ATP Tour Writer for Vavel, plus writes for HometownHockey.ca and The Hockey Writers. Wimbledon, Oilers orientation camp and the goalies.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. 90 minutes from now! Clear your schedule! OR don’t but tune in and multitask!

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202 Responses to "FUTURE GAMES"

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  1. neallivingston says:

    Good to see “nice things” out of Greg Chase. I think he has some quiet goodness, but needs to stretch those moments well beyond orientation camps and week-long spurts. He’s due an October-November-December emerging period.

  2. Mr DeBakey says:

    Nillson’s first season in the AHL was good.
    His second and third not so much – .899 & .901.

    I hope no one is expecting him to be better than Scrivens

  3. Lowetide says:

    neallivingston:
    Good to see “nice things” out of Greg Chase. I think he has some quiet goodness, but needs to stretch those moments well beyond orientation camps and week-long spurts. He’s due an October-November-December emerging period.

    You bet, that’s the issue. The other thing of course is that Chase enters pro hockey with no draft pedigree and the GM/scouting director who took him are not in charge. Still, he has an entry level deal and a shot in the pro’s something that is quite rare for a 7th round pick.

  4. Lowetide says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Nillson’s first season in the AHL was good.
    His second and third not so much – .899 & .901.

    I hope no one is expecting him to be better than Scrivens

    A new GM/Coach who have no ties to last year’s failed starter and have acquired two other options suggests Ben Scrivens is in a bad spot. We’ll see.

  5. Ducey says:

    Chiarelli on Anders Nilsson: “He’s a big goalie. He might not have been dealt the greatest cards when he came over (to North America). He had a strong year in the KHL. He had an average World Championships. I saw him in one game when I went over there. He’s still young for a goalie. He was excited to hear that he has a new start. The bottom line is there is going to be competition. There is going to be competition amongst the goalies and that’s why. We want that. It gives us insurance and it gives us competition.”

    “Average World Championships”, “still young”, “gives us insurance”, “competition”

    That does not sound like Scrivens is going anywhere before camp. Unless he stinks, I would bet Scrivens gets the job, and Nilsson gets farmed to Bakersfield.

    On the 50 man list, if they sign say, Loik and Soy, they would not count on the list if sent back to junior, right? Their contracts would slide?

  6. Lowetide says:

    Ducey:
    Chiarelli on Anders Nilsson: “He’s a big goalie. He might not have been dealt the greatest cards when he came over (to North America). He had a strong year in the KHL. He had an average World Championships. I saw him in one game when I went over there. He’s still young for a goalie. He was excited to hear that he has a new start. The bottom line is there is going to be competition. There is going to be competition amongst the goalies and that’s why. We want that. It gives us insurance and it gives us competition.”

    “Average World Championships”, “still young”, “gives us insurance”, “competition”

    That does not sound like Scrivens is going anywhere before camp.Unless he stinks, I would bet Scrivens gets the job, and Nilsson gets farmed to Bakersfield.

    On the 50 man list, if they sign say, Loik and Soy, they would not count on the list if sent back to junior, right?Their contracts would slide?

    Yes. Contracts would slide, so it would go from 49 to 47 during the season.

  7. Really? says:

    The best thing about the off season is that Oiler fans can approach the upcoming year with optimism. It has become almost a reflex over the past decade to hedge these feelings.

    Dare I be so bold as to suggest that this year, finally, there is a distinct possibility that the Oil turn north. From all the reports on McDavid, Nurse and Draisaitl, we are looking at a potential infusion of world class talent not seen in these parts since the late 70’s or early 80’s.

    What ever the ultimate placement in the standings I am expecting somefun and some exciting hockey—thank goodness.

  8. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Nillson’s first season in the AHL was good.
    His second and third not so much – .899 & .901.

    I hope no one is expecting him to be better than Scrivens

    NYI is pretty poor at developing goalies (even worse than Edmonton). Hardly any .910+ seasons in Bridgeport over the last number of years. Had a dietary/fatigue issue. I think he’s worth a shot, if only to light a fire under Scrivens ass

  9. NCD12 says:

    Can’t remember who posted it but it showed the goalies for Nilsson’s KHL team the last few years and they all had extremely high save %. Might be the team more then the goalie. Something to keep in mind I guess

  10. Acumen says:

    Absolutely love everything I’m reading about Leveille. Really hope they sign him, based on pedigree and reports I would not have been upset with him being taken with the McLellan third. This draft may in fact have been so deep that we could procure legitimate talent without even using a draft pick.

  11. supernova says:

    “I like Griffin Reinhart as a prospect, but this young man is on a different level because he’s legit fast. That means he can recover quickly, close a gap, won’t get beaten as often, and if they run him all year Edmonton should have a more finished product by next summer.”

    ————————-
    I also like Reinhart a lot, there skill sets tend to me different.
    Nurse overflows with athleticism, strength, speed, agility, even the nastier edge.
    Reinhart comes off like the older, wiser thinking man defenceman, Really high Hockey Sense.

    I too would not be surprised to see Nurse jump over Reinhart.

    Having both will be amazing in a couple years. I fully expect our Top 4 D will be Sekera, Klefbom, Nurse, Reinhart. Approximately 75 percent of the game will be played with those guys. When we have them all past the 250 GP mark we will be having an excellent team. their Skillsets make it easier to add players to complement them.

    A nice solid RH D would be a very nice Add.

    Once again I suggest Adam Larsson. ( probably about 1000 times already)

  12. Acumen says:

    supernova,

    Running Nurse-Reinhart and Klefbom-Larsson with Sekera in there to babysit for the next 5-10 years would have me feeling bulletproof.

  13. theres oil in virginia says:

    supernova:
    “I like Griffin Reinhart as a prospect, but this young man is on a different level because he’s legit fast. That means he can recover quickly, close a gap, won’t get beaten as often, and if they run him all year Edmonton should have a more finished product by next summer.”

    ————————-
    I also like Reinhart a lot, there skill sets tend to me different.
    Nurse overflows with athleticism, strength, speed, agility, even the nastier edge.
    Reinhart comes off like the older, wiser thinking man defenceman, Really high Hockey Sense.

    I too would not be surprised to see Nurse jump over Reinhart.

    Having both will be amazing in a couple years. I fully expect our Top 4 D will be Sekera, Klefbom, Nurse, Reinhart. Approximately 75 percent of the game will be played with those guys. When we have them all past the 250 GP mark we will be having an excellent team. their Skillsets make it easier to add players to complement them.

    A nice solid RH D would be a very nice Add.

    Once again I suggest Adam Larsson. ( probably about 1000 times already)

    Agreed on your assessment of Nurse/Reinhart. Nurse may be able to skate fast and overcome more positioning mistakes, but Reinhart will probably make less mistakes that need to be overcome.

    What’s your assessment of the cost to get Larsson from NJD?

  14. V.XIV.VI.I says:

    When is the last time a defenceman as talented as Nurse was also as big, mobile, agile, and loved to hit? He’s like a 6’4″ Subban but without the shot. He’s like a Phaneuf but with more speed.

    I mean, he’s got a lot to learn about when not to do things. Like rush up the ice. I suspect he’ll start the year in Bakersfield simply because of that, and to get him used to trying to hit men. For all the praise Sheldon Keefe gets in junior, he gave Nurse way too much rope and relied on him to contain McDavid, rather than the team. So Nurse has some habits to break.

    But wow am I excited about him.

    Also, McDavid is like the Captain Planet of the Oilers. Eberle’s hands, Hall’s speed, Nuge’s vision, and Yak’s first step.

  15. rickithebear says:

    Mr DeBakey:
    Nillson’s first season in the AHL was good.
    His second and third not so much – .899 & .901.

    I hope no one is expecting him to be better than Scrivens

    His bad years he had a viral Lethargy B12 Solved it.
    08-09 18yr superlit J20 Reg .927 playoffs .935

    09-10 19yr Lulea SEL 27gm .897

    10-11 20yr Lulea SEL 31gm .922 Playoffs .931

    11-12 21 YR
    NHL .911 Price .905 @21
    AHL 25gm .921

    12-13 22yr Viral problems
    AHL .899

    13-14 23yr
    AHL .901
    NHL .896
    WC SO Cze in Bronze Game .938 SV%

    14-15 24yr
    KHL .936 VS% Playoffs .935

  16. Kermodoil says:

    I likie the moves GM PC has made this summer. Very encouraging.
    He has improved the Defence, with the addtion of Sekera, Reinhart and Gryba. With the evolution of Nurse, we will have a very solid back end for years to come.

    Of the prospects at last nights camp; I would sign Loik Leveille. His skating was good, needs to get faster, but what prospect doesn’t. His shot was excellent, he could have had 2 goals last night, if his shots were 1/2″ inside. He did well against McD when out there, made good first passes …

    I also liked the chemistry between Loiselle and Draisaitl. They fed off each other quite well.

    Exciting times ahead.

  17. rickithebear says:

    Talking about Dmen being strong skaters involves getting away from protecting the net.
    It is easier and cheaper cap wise to outscore a lower CA and GA base line.

    I want to hear Makes agreat pass.
    Defends the Box.
    Strong 2 way play!

    SEE;

    Ethan Bear
    Caleb Jones

    We talk about Schultz.

    But if Klef continues the top 5 Even production he had at end of year.
    What does his contract cost us next year?

  18. LadiesloveSmid says:

    rickithebear:
    Talking about Dmen being strong skaters involves getting away from protecting the net.
    It is easier and cheaper cap wise to outscore a lower CA and GA base line.

    I want to hear Makes agreat pass.
    Defends the Box.
    Strong 2 way play!

    SEE;

    Ethan Bear
    Caleb Jones

    We talk about Schultz.

    But if Klef continues the top 5 Even production he had at end of year.
    What does his contract cost us next year?

    I imagine they sign him to a Brodin-like contract during the summer, no?

    also I love Klefbom as much as the next guy, but I don’t think elite 5v5 production will be his calling card

  19. misfit says:

    It looked to me like Nurse was mostly playing the right side again last night. Pair that with him being used at RD with the Barons (from what I hear…didn’t watch any of those games) and performing well (again, so I hear), I wonder if he doesn’t make the switch long term. If he does, that helps with the Sekera/Klefbom/Reinhart/everydefensemaninthesystem all being primarily LDs and balance on the back end.

    He says he models his game after Chris Pronger (I wonder if that has anything to do with him wearing 25), and Pronger had no problem playing either side of the defense either.

  20. Pouzar says:

    Honestly, I couldn’t give a flyin f^ck who the back up is.
    I’m all in on Talbot. If he does what he’s already shown we’ll turn North.

  21. kinger_OIL says:

    I hate that some are talking themselves into Nurse as a D in the NHL next fall. All this is like spring training: kids come in with great heat, and live arms, all jacked up and running on high octane adrenalin. Haven’t we learned over the years? Sninny new toy, beetern than what we have. Same damn thing every year. he needs to rippen in AHL, and dominate, then come up. For the love of god, not another development year for players in the NHL. Fine if Griff and Nurse combined play 50-60 games, but no Nurse in starting line-up, who care how he does in training camp, we don’t have a NHL corp that can protect a young guy like Nurse in his first year: we just aren’t there…

  22. Pouzar says:

    kinger_OIL: I hate that some are talking themselves into Nurse as a D in the NHL next fall. All this is like spring training: kids come in with great heat, and live arms, all jacked up and running on high octane adrenalin. Haven’t we learned over the years? Sninny new toy, beetern than what we have. Same damn thing every year. he needs to rippen in AHL, and dominate, then come up. For the love of god, not another development year for players in the NHL. Fine if Griff and Nurse combined play 50-60 games, but no Nurse in starting line-up, who care how he does in training camp, we don’t have a NHL corp that can protect a young guy like Nurse in his first year: we just aren’t there…

    How bout we see if he’s one of the top 6 best d-men on the team first and go from there?

  23. digdeepnbleedblue says:

    I really like Nurse. He IS the definition of a hockey player. Can skate, shoot, and is out right freakin’ mean. God love that young stud!

    Back in the day they would hand this Neanderthal a sword and cheer in full hysteria as he sliced people into pieces. They would be extremely entertained. He would drink the best wine, eat the best food and sleep with the finest slaves.

    I wish him the best of luck in TC. He’s a fucking beast!

    But, what this blog post did leave out is that Chiarelli mentioned after he said there would be competition and don’t be discouraged by all the pro contracts, that he would do what’s best for Darnel’s development.

    That’s the key. Development.

    I DO really like this player, if you can’t tell, and hope he is ready to make the jump, but, in no way will I feel bad if he needs some extra time to marinate in the A. Top minutes in all situations…good development.

  24. Hammers says:

    Seems we have not 1 but 3 clusters . Hall, Ebs, Hopkins then McDavid,Nurse, Leon with Yak,Reinhart and Klefbom falling in between . As of now Halls cluster are experienced and 1 of those should be the new captain . I read something years ago first about the Islanders then the Oilers that mini groups within a team all close in age and no more than 5 years of separation from first to last gives you a great shot at winning the big prize . 6 forwards 3 D and now we await the goalie . Keep that group and add your Landers,Pouliots ,Sekera and Fayne and you have the makings of a top team.

  25. Doug McLachlan says:

    Options, options, options.

    If there is one thing that has impressed me the most about the Chiarelli era so far is that in all of his activity he rarely closes off options and even when he does, potentially can be “stuck” with a Schultz contract he is unhappy with, he creates other options (the second buyout window).

    I suspect he and Schultz’ agent have a good idea what the plan is. Short-term deal for close to what he made last year. We may prefer that he be let go but I trust that McLellan’s team has looked at the tape and are convinced that they see enough there to assure the GM that he can be coached to a better player or at least a more valuable asset for trade.

    The buyout window a Schultz signing will trigger is the first really hard call, IMHO. Preference would be to trade Ference and or Nikitin away but I think if that was possible (even retaining salary) it would have happened by now so we are at a point where the Oilers decide to ride it out with them (maybe hoping that other options present themselves by the trade deadline) or Chia bites the bullet on a buyout.

    I had convinced myself that there was no justification for buying out Ference because it would be a cap hit that lasts 4 years. Not so sure that is so awful anymore.

    as per General Fanager http://www.generalfanager.com/buyouts/829
    If Ference’s salary is bought out the cap hit is:
    15-16 $666,666
    16-17 $1,166,666
    17-18 $1,166,666
    18-19 $1,166,666
    but since you don’t have Ference’s cap hit for the first two years the cap room adjusts as follows:
    15-16 $2,583,334 extra cap space
    16-17 $2,083,334 extra cap space
    17-18 $1,166,666 lost cap space
    18-19 $1,166,666 lost cap space

    As per General Fanager, again, http://www.generalfanager.com/buyouts/859
    If Nikitin’s salary is bought out the cap hit is:
    15-16 $1,500,000
    16-17 $1,500,000
    but again you’ve moved Nikitin’s salary out so the cap room adjusts as follows:
    15-16 $3,000,000 extra cap space
    16-17 $1,500,000 lost cap space

    In my view it makes the most sense to buy BOTH Ference and Nikitin out for a combined adjustment as follows:
    15-16 $5,583,334!! extra cap space
    16-17 $583,334 in extra cap space
    17-18 $1,166,666 lost cap space
    18-19 $1,166,666 lost cap space

    If one is only looking at this year, the decision is a no brainer. Over $5.5M in space when nobody suggests Ference or Nikitin ought to be patrolling an NHL blueline. For at least this year a Franson-type addition at the aforementioned Petry-level $ becomes possible.

    Things tighten up the following year where you have only cleared a further $500K in space and Klefbom’s ELC runs out. The good news is that Purcell’s deal is over so you have an additional $4.5M there, Gryba’s deal runs out too (though he may be re-upping depending on how the year goes). Also, all of your goaltenders will be either UFA or RFA. Still, Chiarelli will have given himself some wiggle room.

    Years 3 and 4 is where the Ference’s buyout creates a cap deficit but the hit is really, really small. Yes Yakupov’s bridge deal ends. Lander and Reinhart’s ELCs end but the amount of $ from a Ference buyout will not tip this one way or the other.

    Sign Schultz. Trigger the 48 hour buyout window and toss both Ference and Nikitin through it. I am confident that with that extra space, Chia can through trade or from the remaining UFAs out there (is Franson really waiting for the right deal or is he waiting for the Oilers to get the cap space to sign him?) we can get close to a playoff race team and have Nurse and Reinhart getting the 20+min in Bakersfield they need instead of being asked to jump to the NHL right away.

  26. Pouzar says:

    digdeepnbleedblue: I DO really like this player, if you can’t tell, and hope he is ready to make the jump, but, in no way will I feel bad if he needs some extra time to marinate in the A. Top minutes in all situations…good development.

    This is where I am at. But any time in the AHL will be a lot easier to swallow if Ference is no longer taking a regular shift and Chia can some how sign the Hoff. This is the one missing piece to really turning North imho.

  27. wheatnoil says:

    Nurse has the raw tools to be an NHL defender. That was never in question on draft day and they have only gotten better. Practice drills and scrimmages will appeal to his strengths, so it’s no surprise he looks great. The only question will be his decision-making skills, as Chiarelli aluded to… “he’s up the ice a lot”.

    We won’t know about his decision-making skills until we hit at least pre-season and maybe later. There will likely be a learning curve and Bakersfield won’t be a bad place to learn. So I think the odds are against him making the team out of camp.

    That said, if he shows good decision-making in pre-season and creates more than he gives up… well, then, giddy-up!

  28. SwedishPoster says:

    rickithebear,

    Where have you read that his B12 deficiency was caused by a viral infection? I haven’t read any cause anywhere and virosis is a pretty uncommon cause of B12-deficiency tbh, sure a chronic viral gastritis could lead to malabsorption but that usually only happens in people who are immunosupressed which I doubt is the case in an elite athlete. My guess would be either autoimmune disease, chronic gastritis due to heliobacter pylori or malnutrition(haven’t heard anything about him being vegan but that would explain a lot, he is born in a part of sweden where it’s fairly common though generally a little more south in Umeå, he’s from Luleå). Doesn’t really matter since the issue seems to be resolved, never heard it was due to viral infection that’s all.

    On Nilsson as a player I think I mentioned him as a decent cheap pickup a few weeks ago. He had a great season in the KHL and had one hell of a WHC last spring where he played out of his mind. And that’s been his thing for a lot of his career so far, he plays crazy good for stretches and then for stretches he starts letting in easy goals and looks almost clumsy at times despite fundamentally being a very athletic goalie. But when he’s on he’s on.
    He’s massive, uses his size very well so there’s not a lot of net available for the shooters, very athletic and has great agility for his size. He struggles with rebound control, much like the Oiler version of Devan Dubnyk he sometimes goes down into his buterfly stance a little early which leads to easy goals against and much like Scrivens he’s a bit scrambly when he has an off night overplaying situations etc and his glove hand is mediocre imo. Most of the flaws seem to have gotten better in Russia though and he’s still young enough for the coin to suddenly drop, the raw talent is certainly there and as I’ve mentioned several times he can be almost impossible when he’s feeling it.

    Considering cost, contract and the situation with him and Scrivens battling it out I’d argue he’s a great bet to make.

  29. linkfromhyrule says:

    It’s funny, because there were howls (from some) that the Oilers messed the Nurse pick up, and should have instead taken Nichushkin or Ristolainen.

    Both those players ended up in the NHL sooner than Nurse, but Nurse is tracking to be an elite shutdown D with an endless supply of nasty.

    Risto is more of an offensive D thrust into a tire fire (24 pts in 112 games), while Nich. has alternated between being injured and fairly effective (35 points in 87 games). He remains more potential than proven.

    Can you imagine if Calgary would have taken Nurse and we had to play him for the next 10+ years? I think it’s safe to say we made the right pick. Nurse >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Monahan

  30. PhrankLee says:

    neallivingston: He’s due an October-November-December emerging period.

    I love this prospect. I agree with you on his emerging for injury call up and I always feel he is capable of knocking it out of the park with effort on ice. Responsibility is learned over a longer period of time. When was the last time we had a real and capable pest?

    Thanks for your work, Neal. You always did a fair and classy job on the Barons.

  31. blainer says:

    Pouzar:
    Honestly, I couldn’t give a flyin f^ck who the back up is.
    I’m all in on Talbot. If he does what he’s already shown we’ll turn North.

    Lol. .. agreed.. Talbot should do well even if he is gonna get competition.. Scrivens came into to camp last year in my mind unprepared and all but guaranteed the starters job much like Talbot is now. I have been saying we need to build in a safety net and I think Chia has done just that.. All three goalies better be training hard in the off season as there are NO guarantee’s who play’s when the puck is dropped.. Even though Talbot is the man now showing him that there will be competition for his job will make him more prepared than just handing it to him.. which IMO actually makes me believe he will be the starter for this reason.. Competition everywhere on this team.. Finally !!

  32. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil: “he’s up the ice a lot”.

    He was up the ice a lot in the AHL playoffs and was the best d-man for OKC.
    Does he need to do less if it in the NHL? Yes.
    But I think he can still get away with it in Bakersfield so some coaching is going to be needed.

  33. SwedishPoster says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    That million in cap space might be crucial for those two years though. Drai, Lander and Yak’s next contracts are coming up the first year and then McDavid, Nurse the following year.
    We’re not in desperate need of cap space this season, we could also use the fact that McDavids bonuses can be payed as penalty next season when a lot of cap space opens up with Purcell, Nikitin and all the goalies coming of the books if we’re tight to the cap this year. If Chia can’t find any takers I’d argue it’s smarter to wait out the contracts.

  34. Pouzar says:

    linkfromhyrule: Nurse >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Monahan

    Easy big fella. Center and D were both huge needs at the time but I think we filled the former big time. 🙂

  35. "Steve Smith" (formerly Oil2Oilers) says:

    linkfromhyrule: Nurse >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Monahan

    It’s absurdly early to make that assessment, even with just one >.

  36. Halfwise says:

    SwedishPoster:
    rickithebear,

    My guess would be either autoimmune disease, chronic gastritis due to heliobacter pylori or malnutrition(haven’t heard anything about him being vegan but that would explain a lot, he is born in a part of sweden where it’s fairly common though generally a little more south in Umeå, he’s from Luleå). Doesn’t really matter since the issue seems to be resolved, never heard it was due to viral infection that’s all.

    On Nilsson as a player I think I mentioned him as a decent cheap pickup a few weeks ago. He had a great season in the KHL and had one hell of a WHC last spring where he played out of his mind. And that’s been his thing for a lot of his career so far, he plays crazy good for stretches and then for stretches he starts letting in easy goals and looks almost clumsy at times despite fundamentally being a very athletic goalie. But when he’s on he’s on.

    Most of the flaws seem to have gotten better in Russia though and he’s still young enough for the coin to suddenly drop, the raw talent is certainly there and as I’ve mentioned several times he can be almost impossible when he’s feeling it.

    Considering cost, contract and the situation with him and Scrivens battling it out I’d argue he’s a great bet to make.

    It is posts like these that make this blog great (in addition to our host’s insights, humor and hard work, of course).

    Swedish Poster, thank you.

  37. linkfromhyrule says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly Oil2Oilers): It’s absurdly early to make that assessment, even with just one >.

    Early? Certainly! Perhaps I should have added IMO as a disclaimer 🙂

  38. misfit says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    Options, options, options.

    If there is one thing that has impressed me the most about the Chiarelli era so far is that in all of his activity he rarely closes off options and even when he does, potentially can be “stuck” with a Schultz contract he is unhappy with, he creates other options (the second buyout window).

    I suspect he and Schultz’ agent have a good idea what the plan is.Short-term deal for close to what he made last year.We may prefer that he be let go but I trust that McLellan’s team has looked at the tape and are convinced that they see enough there to assure the GM that he can be coached to a better player or at least a more valuable asset for trade.

    The buyout window a Schultz signing will trigger is the first really hard call, IMHO.Preference would be to trade Ference and or Nikitin away but I think if that was possible (even retaining salary) it would have happened by now so we are at a point where the Oilers decide to ride it out with them (maybe hoping that other options present themselves by the trade deadline) or Chia bites the bullet on a buyout.

    I had convinced myself that there was no justification for buying out Ference because it would be a cap hit that lasts 4 years.Not so sure that is so awful anymore.

    as per General Fanager http://www.generalfanager.com/buyouts/829
    If Ference’s salary is bought out the cap hit is:
    15-16 $666,666
    16-17 $1,166,666
    17-18 $1,166,666
    18-19 $1,166,666
    but since you don’t have Ference’s cap hit for the first two years the cap room adjusts as follows:
    15-16 $2,583,334 extra cap space
    16-17 $2,083,334 extra cap space
    17-18 $1,166,666 lost cap space
    18-19 $1,166,666 lost cap space

    As per General Fanager, again, http://www.generalfanager.com/buyouts/859
    If Nikitin’s salary is bought out the cap hit is:
    15-16 $1,500,000
    16-17 $1,500,000
    but again you’ve moved Nikitin’s salary out so the cap room adjusts as follows:
    15-16 $3,000,000 extra cap space
    16-17 $1,500,000 lost cap space

    In my view it makes the most sense to buy BOTH Ference and Nikitin out for a combined adjustment as follows:
    15-16 $5,583,334!! extra cap space
    16-17 $583,334 in extra cap space
    17-18 $1,166,666 lost cap space
    18-19 $1,166,666 lost cap space

    If one is only looking at this year, the decision is a no brainer.Over $5.5M in space when nobody suggests Ference or Nikitin ought to be patrolling an NHL blueline.For at least this year a Franson-type addition at the aforementioned Petry-level $ becomes possible.

    But looking at the two, if you only buyout Ference, you’re still way up.

    15/16 – $2,583,334 in extra cap space (in addition to the ~$3M we have currently)
    16/17 – $6,583,334 in cap space ($2,083,334 for Ference plus the full amount of Nikitin’s salary)
    17/18 – $1,166,666 cap penalty
    18/19 – $1,166,666 cap penalty

    Buying out Ference alone still gives us enough cap space this year to add whatever we want (or simply free up a roster spot for a Nurse/Reinhart/etc.), but doesn’t harm our cap situation the following year whatsoever. We still have the two-year cap penalty, but like you said, it’s minor and certainly manageable.

    Not only that, but having that extra buffer next year means that if we need cap space this year, we can simply chose to push the bonuses of Draisaitl/McDavid to next year and only have them come into effect if they hit them. If they don’t, then that cap room is both available to us this year and has no affect on next year’s cap.

    To me, buying out Ference is the right choice. Buying out Nikitin only if we manage to add a special player with a salary to match, which seems unlikely at this point. Niktin’s contract also restricts you much less because we can trade him, waive him, or demote him if necessary throughout the year with varying degrees of cap/roster relief that goes with it.

  39. Doug McLachlan says:

    SwedishPoster,

    If a cap hit slightly above an ELC is the difference between re-signing any of the players you mentioned – far greater cap-mistakes have been made.

    No guarantee that that cap rises between now and 2017, though it has every, single, year.

    Also, 2017 will be the expansion draft and both Vegas and Quebec (or Seattle or Portland or whatever) will need to find a roster of players who get them to the cap floor. When 30 teams protect their top (and highest priced) players up on protected lists in two years time – and they will) the contracts left available will be valuable even if, and perhaps because, they are overpriced. The Oilers will have the space to sign Drai, Lander, Yak and Sleppy.

  40. Ice Sage says:

    Didn’t Anaheim do allright last year with 2 pretty inexperienced G? Both Andersen and Gibson had pretty good #’s at every league…

    And, just saw the hi lights of that ‘game’ (was passing thru Pardubice, out of all places) – hope everyone takes it as the shinny / fan candy that it was – no way any of those McD goals go in in the real NHL. Good thing is, his body language tells us he knows it.

  41. book¡je says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly Oil2Oilers): It’s absurdly early to make that assessment, even with just one

    I agree, such assessments should not be made until after lunch! It’s just bad form.

  42. Stanley 2018 says:

    As per Jonathan Willis:
    Trade Nikitin
    Buyout Ference
    Sign Ehrhoff/ Franson
    Best summer since ’06.

    Would it ever.

  43. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Don’t tell godot but I think I’m jumping on the Franson train. If you can get him at under 5M, jump on it. He’s a legit top 4 blue, and Schultz is not. Play Sekera-Fayne against toughs, Klefbom-Franson in an offensive role. Big shot from the point. Positive possession effect on most linemates. Hero chart shows a higher end 2nd pair guy who produces at a top level.

    Stephen Burtsh really likes him

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/playing-hardball-with-franson-will-cost-leafs/

  44. SwedishPoster says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Yeah it’s not a massive number but teams pushing the cap limit isn’t uncommon especially when contending which hopefully is the case around that time plus are we really that desperate for cap space this year?

  45. Doug McLachlan says:

    misfit,

    Fair enough. Nikitin was not in shape from the start of camp and I’m confident in saying that McLellan and his team can make better use of what NN can give you. If he shows well enough in camp you send Nurse down with an aim to trade Nikitin when the time is right and bring Nurse along.

    Good point, BTW, in saying that the anticipated McDavid bonuses can be tagged to next year where – in this scenario – we would have the space.

    My concern with buying out Ferenece had been what happens in years 3 and 4. I’m now convinced that this isn’t an issue anymore.

    If we create the space to do it by buying out Ference (and using the space we have) does Franson (say at $5 x2) make sense?

    Sekera-Fayne
    Klefbom-Franson
    Gryba-Schultz
    Nikitin

    (with Reinhart-Nurse in Bakersfield tearing up 20+ minutes per night.)

    Is that a defense that has you playing meaningful games headed down the stretch in March?

    EDIT: Ference is bad, Franson may be good. Stop confusing the two.

  46. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    I see this year as a chance for Nikitin to improve (contract year) and Schultz to demonstrate he gets it or he doesn’t. The ideal outcome is Ference is convinced or induced to retire. I’m sure he sees the writing on the wall…

    With him off the books would there still be room for free agent D or possibly a vet F? Assuming Nikitin Schultz also remain.

    I’m so much more optimistic with a Chiarelli run team. Uncharted territory!

  47. McSorley33 says:

    Regarding the scrimmage….no surprises as to the stars.

    Out of the guys off the radar – I really liked the Braden Christoffer kid…..showed speed and tenacity.

    Plus he took the only penalty so – I really like that…

    Laleggia looks like a forward….

  48. digdeepnbleedblue says:

    Pouzar,

    Fair, dude.

    I believe this team will turn north right now. How can it not? What I’m seeing is a bit of a dream in the eyes of some as to what is an acceptable turn to the north next year.

    I’d argue that with coaching and personnel changes the turn north will be an about face. But, that doesn’t mean playoffs. PLAYOFFS?!

    Which is why I don’t believe keeping buyout cap hits the following years is a wise decision. That’s when I foresee playoffs.

    And as with the goalie competition a competition on D is also a good thing. Depth. It’s good.

    I, apparently, am the only one that doesn’t have a hate on for Ference. Find it humorous, actually, that some suggest he was worse or equal to Nikitin. Crazy talk.

    Also, would the org introduce the McFranchise to the captain if they were going to sacrifice him to the Gods. It would seem very unprofessional.

  49. McSorley33 says:

    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    I see this year as a chance for Nikitin to improve (contract year) and Schultz to demonstrate he gets it or he doesn’t. The ideal outcome is Ference is convinced or induced to retire. I’m sure he sees the writing on the wall…
    *******************************************************************************************
    I said the same thing about Ryan Whitney a few years ago….no such luck. Some players don’t see their decline in an objective way….

    Only played 7 NHL games after his last season with the Oilers…..St. Louis came to a real quick conclusion about him and Florida played him for 7 games.

    Ryan actually played in the KHL last year for Sochi…

  50. LMHF#1 says:

    Stanley 2018:
    As per Jonathan Willis:
    Trade Nikitin
    Buyout Ference
    Sign Ehrhoff/ Franson
    Best summer since ’06.

    Would it ever.

    I take it you mean ’05?

    The summer of ’06 was horrible.

    Lot of value still out there. I’d take it one step further:

    If you can move out Ference, Nikitin and Purcell while adding Franson/Ehrhoff/Oduya/whoever and Fehr/Glencross/whoever, you’re really cooking with gas.

    LT keeps mentioning Visnovsky and he’s right on that front too. If he’s your #6 for cheap that is such a money move.

    We’re getting to that point where players will start to settle for less money or term and need to take advantage.

  51. digdeepnbleedblue says:

    McSorley33,

    Ryan was on an up before he toe-picked at Rexall. It was a steady decline after that injury. Really was a shame…

  52. misfit says:

    Ference isn’t going to retire. In doing so, he would be saying goodbye to $6.5M. That’s a lot to pay for a “dignified exit”. I’d take the $4.33M and let them buy me out if I was willing to say goodbye to my NHL career, which I’m not so sure he is.

    Either way, walking away from the game and a small fortune probably isn’t a consideration for him.

  53. Ducey says:

    Pouzar: How bout we see if he’s one of the top 6 best d-men on the team first and go from there?

    Ah, the Oiler way.

    The only question to be asked is whether player X is better today than any of the other options.

    How about asking the question of what is best for player X?

    Is Nurse going to develop better playing 13 minutes a night in the third pairing in the NHL or 25 minutes a night in the AHL? What happens when he struggles in the NHL when a few guys beat him wide, or he gets crushed by a 28 yr old man who can really skate? Or some goon like John Scott decides to pick on him?

    I say send him down regardless of how he does in camp. As noted by Chia, camp is different from the first 10 games and the first 10 games are different from the next 10. Let him run the PP, learn the PK and do it at a pace that will help him develop his confidence. Then bring him up for the second half.

  54. LMHF#1 says:

    digdeepnbleedblue:
    I really like Nurse. He IS the definition of a hockey player. Can skate, shoot, and is out right freakin’ mean. God love that young stud!

    Back in the day they would hand this Neanderthal a sword and cheer in full hysteria as he sliced people into pieces. They would be extremely entertained. He would drink the best wine, eat the best food and sleep with the finest slaves.

    I wish him the best of luck in TC. He’s a fucking beast!

    But, what this blog post did leave out is that Chiarelli mentioned after he said there would be competition and don’t be discouraged by all the pro contracts, that he would do what’s best for Darnel’s development.

    That’s the key. Development.

    I DO really like this player, if you can’t tell, and hope he is ready to make the jump, but, in no way will I feel bad if he needs some extra time to marinate in the A. Top minutes in all situations…good development.

    What will decide Nurse’s fate is if he’s learned not to chase the puck.

    This killed him in the NHL last year and hopefully it is out of his system.

  55. Doug McLachlan says:

    misfit: Ference isn’t going to retire. In doing so, he would be saying goodbye to $6.5M. That’s a lot to pay for a “dignified exit”. I’d take the $4.33M and let them buy me out if I was willing to say goodbye to my NHL career, which I’m not so sure he is.Either way, walking away from the game and a small fortune probably isn’t a consideration for him.

    Ference only retires if HE wants to, and while I think he is well suited to continue with the organization in some capacity he is such a fitness freak that I’m sure he believes he has two more years in him.

    He has a NMC so if Chia feels he is not pushing this roster further ahead (and he knows what a good Ference has done in the past) then he can also be ruthless enough to hand him the buyout money, wish him well and send him on his way.

    The truth is that on a $1M contract Ference’s professionalism, fitness and SCF experience (went to two finals in ’04 and ’13 in addition to the win in ’11) would make him a great add for Pittsburgh’s day-care defense. As much as I would love to concoct a trade with the Pens for him, don’t see it.

  56. TheOtherJohn says:

    book¡je: I agree, such assessments should not be made until after lunch!It’s just bad form.

    and yet they are made all summer long.

    Really like the Nurse pick. Expect we will have a good idea as to his ceiling by the end of this season or sometime next year. Here, today we are anointing him as a top pairing monster that is a better pick than Monahan who has 53 goals in under 2 full seasons of play. Or at roughly the same rate as Nuge. Expect in a 2013 redraft conducted today Monahan would slot in at #4 behind MacKinnon, Lindholm and Jones

    As with every season the rubber hitting the road for the young prospects will be in the latter NHL exhibition games when the kids are playing rosters full of NHL tuning up for the start of the season. I expect Nurse and Reinhart will be given every opportunity to make the NHL roster. McLellan played Mark Vlasic in his draft+3 year 24m TOI

    See the D surprisingly similar to last year just prior to the trade deadline. Petry and Sekera swap out, Gryba and MM swap out and we,, have Nurse and Reinhart potentially added to the NHL mix

    Have listened to radio interviews with J Woodcroft and J Jackson and think the coaching staff is going to be SOOOOO much better than last year.Come across as consummate pros

    AND McDavid :-))

  57. Alsker says:

    misfit,

    Agreed, I was thinking the same thing only included the fact that demoting NN to Bakersfield would net an additional 925K in cap space. Would that get us Erhoff/Franson? Doubtful, but would it get us Hejda?

  58. SwedishPoster says:

    Was looking through some of the clips from Camp on the Oilers website. Same old questions and answers but still fun to look at. There’s something very honest about Caleb Jones, he gives the vibe of someone who will buckle down and put in every effort he can to make it. Kyle Platzer looks like RNHs slightly scared little brother. Lagesson is a terrible interview. Ben Betker just oozes confidence, so does the three stars but Betker has that same kind of radiant confidence despite not having the same credentials on the ice, I guess it helps that he’s a giant of a man. John Marino has a look that would work very well in a lighthearted US TV series about a bunch of high school kids.

  59. slopitch says:

    I dont think its fair to say Nurse is better then Monahan. That 2003 draft is looking to be VERY good. Monahan could be the next dominant 2 way C – almost Kopitar. Glad we have Nurse though. Such an important piece if he can become that top pairing stud.

    Chatted with some people I know over the weekend RE Dubnyk. He wasnt contacted by Oilers for a contract and would have entertained it now that MacT isnt involved (they obviously had their differences). It was Wild or Sharks. Devan loved Kruger. The delay in his contract was that he wanted an extra year on his deal (the 7th year). It would have got him NHL pension. So he has to earn an additional contract when he’s done. Seems pretty hard to get a pension considering most guys careers are 2-5 years.

  60. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    Remember. The format yesterday played to Nurse’s strengths. His weakness has always been patience and positioning.

    Reinhardt is the opposite. He seems to have a lower ceiling but should make fewer mistakes.

    Preseason will show if Nurse is ready. If not then send him to mature in Bakersfield and NOT on the big squad. It won’t take him long and when he arrives he can go straight to top 4 mins.

    Let’s not howl if Nurse is sent to develop. That IS the Detroit model. Learn and refine in the AHL, perform in the NHL.

  61. slopitch says:

    Stanley 2018:
    As per Jonathan Willis:
    Trade Nikitin
    Buyout Ference
    Sign Ehrhoff/ Franson
    Best summer since ’06.

    All. Day.

  62. Pouzar says:

    Ducey: How about asking the question of what is best for player X?

    I guess you know the answer. Silly me.

  63. slopitch says:

    till_horcoff_is_coach:
    Remember. The format yesterday played to Nurse’s strengths. His weakness has always been patience and positioning.

    Reinhardt is the opposite. He seems to have a lower ceiling but should make fewer mistakes.

    Preseason will show if Nurse is ready. If not then send him to mature in Bakersfield and NOT on the big squad. It won’t take him long and when he arrives he can go straight to top 4 mins.

    Let’s not howl if Nurse is sent to develop. That IS the Detroit model. Learn and refine in the AHL, perform in the NHL.

    Agreed. Id be happy if both Reinhart and Nurse played 20 games in the AHL. Gives them a chance to play together, learn each others tenancies ect. 20-60 games in the AHL wont hurt them in anyway.

  64. Younger Oil says:

    Stanley 2018:
    As per Jonathan Willis:
    Trade Nikitin
    Buyout Ference
    Sign Ehrhoff/ Franson
    Best summer since ’06.

    Would it ever.

    Wait, did Willis say that he thinks these three things or likely to happen, or just that if those three things happen, it would make it the best summer since ’06?

  65. Pajamah says:

    McSorley33:
    Regarding the scrimmage….no surprises as to the stars.

    Out of the guys off the radar – I really liked the Braden Christoffer kid…..showed speed and tenacity.

    Plus he took the only penalty so – I really like that…

    Laleggia looks like a forward….

    Christoffer messed with Marino, no points there. That’s like Kesler fighting Gagner, or RNH v. Hamhuis. I did like his game though.

    I went without a program to see who a)I could recognize, b)remove bias.

    Loved Betker, though Nurse put him on his ass easily in the 3rd just before Betkers goal. Soy I liked, but he had a teammate in Chase with him most of the time. Chase, Nurse, Drai, McDavid all looked like it was too easy. All lolligagged, all did really well.

    Like LaLeggia and Lagesson on D. Made good solid plays, as did Platzer. Noticed Healey simply because he wore 83 and has the same build as Ales. 4 on 4 and 3 on 3, but a couple of great saves by Nagelvoort. Papirny’s equipment looked like Broissoit for the Oil Kings. Play….not so much.

  66. Doug McLachlan says:

    STL have signed Tarasenko to an 8-yr, $60M deal. Wow.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/blues-ink-tarasenko-to-8-year-60m-contract/

  67. striatic says:

    linkfromhyrule: I think it’s safe to say we made the right pick. Nurse >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Monahan

    It isn’t safe to say that.

    Still way too early for both players to be saying that.

    In a re-draft I’d take Nurse, sure, but with the understanding that it isn’t nearly as sure a bet as say, McDavid versus Barzal or whatever and that lots of people would prefer taking Monahan and be able to justify that preference.

  68. striatic says:

    Pajamah: Like LaLeggia and Lagesson on D.

    LaLeggia looked pretty good at handling McDavid for the first half of the Game and it wasn’t like McDavid looked bad. Very impressive.

  69. wunderbar says:

    What do you think the odds are that 5 tons of rock beats out Schultz for a job? I have it at 50%

  70. Pajamah says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    STL have signed Tarasenko to an 8-yr, $60M deal.Wow.

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/blues-ink-tarasenko-to-8-year-60m-contract/

    Where are they at cap wise? Trading Oshie for Brouwer must help, but can’t imagine they’ve got tons of space

    – Selfishly hoping Shattenkirk or Bouwmeester shake loose.

  71. Numenius says:

    Kermodoil: I also liked the chemistry between Loiselle and Draisaitl.

    Stauffer kept saying “Loiselle” but it’s actually “Loiseau”, pronounced “Lwahzoh”.

    He also had trouble pronouncing Leveille’s name (should be, roughly, “Luhvayee”)

    Guess his French is a bit rusty.

  72. Pajamah says:

    striatic: LaLeggia looked pretty good at handling McDavid for the first half of the Game and it wasn’t like McDavid looked bad. Very impressive.

    Looks like a really good prospect. May only be the same player type as he who-pushed-Ladd, but a 12 minute power play gut that isn’t completely terrible in his own zone can be useful. Plus he has the RNH connection.

  73. Adam Wu says:

    Ducey: Ah, the Oiler way.

    The only question to be asked is whether player X is better today than any of the other options.

    How about asking the question of what is best for player X?

    Is Nurse going to develop better playing 13 minutes a night in the third pairing in the NHL or 25 minutes a night in the AHL?What happens when he struggles in the NHL when a few guys beat him wide, or he gets crushed by a 28 yr old man who can really skate?Or some goon like John Scott decides to pick on him?

    I say send him down regardless of how he does in camp.As noted by Chia, camp is different from the first 10 games and the first 10 games are different from the next 10.Let him run the PP, learn the PK and do it at a pace that will help him develop his confidence.Then bring him up for the second half.

    If you send him down “regardless of how he does in camp” if he is clearly and massively superior to the 5-6 option you kept ahead of him, then you are perpetuating the culture of entitlement, where ice time and roster spots are gifted to players for reasons other than performance, which breeds locker room dysfunction and sours your relationship with the player.

    What is best for the player is giving him what he has fairly and legitimately earned. The so-called Detroit Model isn’t sending the prospects down “regardless of how they do in camp”, it is making sure the NHL roster is stocked and balanced sufficiently that prospects have to earn their spots legitimately.

    If you want Nurse in the AHL at the start of next year, then the way to do that is to have 6 D on the NHL team that are better or at least equal to him.

    Only when there is equality between two players should considerations other than quality of play, like what is best for development, or who is waiver eligible, and so forth be used as the tiebreak for determining who plays. Otherwise you are being unfair to the player, unfair to the team, and unfair to the fans.

    And a culture of fairness is always the best for both development AND performance.

  74. GCW_69 says:

    linkfromhyrule: Can you imagine if Calgary would have taken Nurse and we had to play him for the next 10+ years? I think it’s safe to say we made the right pick. Nurse >>>>>>>>>>>>>> Monahan

    You know Monahan had over 30 goals and had 62 points last year, right? If the Oilers had drafted Monahan we would be talking about which defender Nuge gets traded for, probably Seth Jones or Ekman-Larsson, and have a much more NHL ready defence? Of course, if we had Monahan, we might not have McDavid, so its all good.

  75. Gerta Rauss says:

    Pajamah: Where are they at cap wise? Trading Oshie for Brouwer must help, but can’t imagine they’ve got tons of space

    – Selfishly hoping Shattenkirk or Bouwmeester shake loose.

    STL is pretty snug to the cap

    capfriendly has the Tarasenko contract up already, it appears they’ve got $2.5M left with 20 players on the roster

    Not sure what their summer plans are but I’d be hanging around and seeing if we could help them out.

  76. Doug McLachlan says:

    Pajamah,

    First thing I did was went to General Fanager.

    http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/st-louis-blues

    They have about $2.4M left in space with perhaps two roster spots (a F and a D) left to fill – which may be filled internally.

    They are tight but not crunched.

    Chicago…well they are already over.

  77. rickithebear says:

    LadiesloveSmid: also I love Klefbom as much as the next guy, but I don’t think elite 5v5 production will be his calling card

    When i looked at his forwards in the SHL/SEL he was involved in 100% of their

    production.
    100%

  78. blainer says:

    McSorley33:
    Walter Gretzkys Neighbour,

    I see this year as a chance for Nikitin to improve (contract year) and Schultz to demonstrate he gets it or he doesn’t. The ideal outcome is Ference is convinced or induced to retire. I’m sure he sees the writing on the wall…
    *******************************************************************************************
    I said the same thing about Ryan Whitney a few years ago….no such luck. Some players don’t see their decline in an objective way….

    Only played 7 NHL games after his last season with the Oilers…..St. Louis came to a real quick conclusion about him and Florida played him for 7 games.

    Ryan actually played in the KHL last year for Sochi…

    Been saying the same thing.. Most older players don’t see their play as going downhill and think they can bounce back. It is seldom players like Ference ever clue in as to when it is time to retire.

    Usually what happens is players announce their retirement when there are no more offers Ala Souray.

    If The Oil had just signed Ference to a contract without the NMC he would be on waivers or traded by now. It is also rare a player like Ference and Whitney ever retire on THEIR terms.. Seems like that will be the case with Ference . He will not see the end of that contract and will be forced to retire when he is told that nobody is interested in his services.

    I am also very skeptical that there was actually an offer for him at the trade deadline last year. JMO..

  79. SwedishPoster says:

    rickithebear: When i lookedat his forwards in the SHL/SEL he was involved in 100% of their

    production.
    100%

    No he wasn’t.

  80. Pajamah says:

    @Gerta Rauss
    @Doug McLachlan

    Thanks for that. Have to use general fanager. Seems like a good tool.

    I would love to “help out” either team and take a pricey defenseman off their hands

  81. Adam Wu says:

    One also cannot assume that playing 25min a game on a top pairing in the AHL is automatically superior to a player’s development than playing 13min a game on the third pairing in the NHL. *If the player is ready*, then playing those 13min, while sitting on the bench and watching real top 4 NHL D who are your mentors play 25min, partaking in NHL practice with legitimate NHL players under the guidance of a legitimate NHL coach, is likely better for that player’s development.

    If the player is ready.

    Properly run practices with McDavid are likely to challenge Nurse more than anything he would get in the AHL.

    If he is ready.

    If he is ready, if he beats out a legitimate NHL player for a 5-6 spot, not a washed up Ference or an Injury riddled Nikitin, then he should stay.

    And if he earns the spot because of an injury to someone in TC, then he should stay for a few games, a go down when the injured player returns. That would be no different than being called up later to cover for an injury.

  82. Pouzar says:

    Adam Wu: If you send him down “regardless of how he does in camp” if he is clearly and massively superior to the 5-6 option you kept ahead of him, then you are perpetuating the culture of entitlement, where ice time and roster spots are gifted to players for reasons other than performance, which breeds locker room dysfunction and sours your relationship with the player.

    This.

    Hence my “go from there”.
    Many variables at play here.

  83. linkfromhyrule says:

    striatic: It isn’t safe to say that.
    Still way too early for both players to be saying that.

    Yes, you (and everyone else) is right of course, and it serves me right for not properly qualifying that I felt Nurse is/was the best *fit* for our team, and **IMO** Nurse>>>Monahan. We will revisit in a year or two and hopefully my opinion becomes truth.

    Monahan seems like a great player, but Nurse is just something we have missed for so long. I guess my homerism caused me to view the overall quality of the players through the lens of best fit for Oilers.

    In the end, I guess it really is a silly comparison to be making, being that it is not comparing apples to apples. Two very different players.

    If Nurse becomes a top pairing shutdown D, and Monahan a perennial 30-35 goal scorer, it still wouldn’t be that easy to say who is better. It would just be clear that Nurse has immense value to our team, and is likely more valuable to us than Monahan would be.

  84. rickithebear says:

    GCW_69: You know Monahan had over 30 goals and had 62 points last year, right?If the Oilers had drafted Monahan we would be talking about which defender Nuge gets traded for, probably Seth Jones or Ekman-Larsson, and have a much more NHL ready defence?Of course, if we had Monahan, we might not have McDavid, so its all good.

    Monohan shared 1st/2nd/3rd comp
    played 2nd comp Oveall
    81gm
    20EVG 21 EVA 41 EVp
    10 PPG 9 PPA 19 PPP
    1 SHG 1 SHA 2 SHP

    RNH 1st comp PVP center
    76gm
    22 EVG (#1 PvP C) 19 EVA 41 EVP (#3 PVP C)
    2 PPG 12 PPA 14 PPP
    0 SHG 1 SHA 1SHP

    I would say,
    Are you nuts wanting to trade the best Young PvP center in the game.
    He is only costing us 6M.
    Toews (27) 10.5M
    Datsyuk (37) 7.5M
    O’rielly (24) 7.5M
    RNH (22) 6.0M

  85. SwedishPoster says:

    Adam Wu:
    One also cannot assume that playing 25min a game on a top pairing in the AHL is automatically superior to a player’s development than playing 13min a game on the third pairing in the NHL. *If the player is ready*, then playing those 13min, while sitting on the bench and watching real top 4 NHL D who are your mentors play 25min, partaking in NHL practice with legitimate NHL players under the guidance of a legitimate NHL coach, is likely better for that player’s development.

    If the player is ready.

    Properly run practices with McDavid are likely to challenge Nurse more than anything he would get in the AHL.

    If he is ready.

    If he is ready, if he beats out a legitimate NHL player for a 5-6 spot, not a washed up Ference or an Injury riddled Nikitin, then he should stay.

    And if he earns the spot because of an injury to someone in TC, then he should stay for a few games, a go down when the injured player returns. That would be no different than being called up later to cover for an injury.

    Yes, I’ve never understood the idea that you can only develop properly or that the ideal development situation is playing 20+ mins a night. Playing the highest possible level of hockey for 12-15 mins per night should be pretty good as well given that you can keep up. Playing in the NHL and being in way over your head is probably bad, but if he can hold his own and outplays the competition on the bottom pairing I think the NHL for 12-15 mins a night is probably better than the AHL for 22-25 mins a night. Give the spots on merit, the only time you shouldn’t is if everyone is in over their heads, then I’d rather have Ference or Nikitin in over their heads than Nurse and Reinhart.

  86. rickithebear says:

    SwedishPoster: No he wasn’t.

    We are not talking team IPP.

    I do go thru the SHL/SEL game logs.

    Unless i missed something.

    Notes date back 3 years!

  87. Yeti says:

    Do we now have consensus that Nurse was the ‘right’ pick for the Oil at #7? It provoked a considerable range of heated opinion at the time. Almost as much as the ill-fated decision to trade Liam Coughlin.

  88. Doug McLachlan says:

    Pajamah,

    The name that I continue to look at is Chicago’s Brent Seabrook.

    He’s a $5.8M hit with an expectation of an extension for next year. At 30 years old, he is likely to want one last big-ticket ride.

    Chicago is doing everything they can to retain him, I’m sure, but they are already over the cap even as they bring in a Viktor Tikhonov for barely more than minimum. Nobody seems prepared what they are asking for in taking either Sharp or Bickell off their hands and they still have to sign rfa Kruger up front and 2-3 more on the back end.

  89. rickithebear says:

    Tarasenko
    11-12 kHL 20yrs
    Sibir 18:48 TOI
    39gm 11 EVG 13 EVA 24 EVP
    .282 EVG/gm .615 EVP/gm

    Slepyshev
    14-15 20yr
    post Xmas break 15:30+ TOI
    19gm 9EVG 2 EVA 11 EVp
    .474 EVG/gm .579 EVP/gm

  90. Younger Oil says:

    I don’t remember a huge backlash from drafting Nurse. I know quite a few people would have preferred Nichushkin or Ristolainen, but nobody was flat out angry for taking Nurse.

  91. SwedishPoster says:

    rickithebear: We are not talking team IPP.

    I do go thru the SHL/SEL game logs.

    Unless i missed something.

    Notes date back 3 years!

    Klefbom played on Färjestads top pairing his last SHL season before getting injured, put up 3 points in 11 games, he played with Färjestads best forwards, they scored more than that with him on the ice. The season before he put up 2 points in 33 games, for the second half of the season he played in the top 4 for the majority of the games, there’s just no way his forwards didn’t score more than that with him on the ice. His draft year he put up 2 points in 23 games, his ice time was fairly limited but I doubt he was on the ice for just two goals in all that time.
    On top of that I watched a lof of his games in the SHL, I was very impressed with his game but he added very little to his teams offense and while I obviously don’t remember every play made I’m sure I would have noticed if he was the only one pulling his weight offensively on the ice.

    His offense has improved in the AHL and I was very surprised by how well he did offensively last season since he added so little offense back home in Sweden. And I’m not just talking PPG here, he showed very little offensive instincts, what little he added offensively was due to his ability to rush the puck up ice.

  92. Doug McLachlan says:

    Yeti: Do we now have consensus that Nurse was the ‘right’ pick for the Oil at #7? It provoked a considerable range of heated opinion at the time. Almost as much as the ill-fated decision to trade Liam Coughlin.

    We didn’t pass on Monahan to get Nurse. He was our Eichel to Calgary’s McDavid at that point.

    The hope was to get either Barkov or Jones but we were not awful enough to be in that conversation.

    The next year the hope was to get either Ekblad or Draisaitl (and the choice for us was really Draisaitl or Bennett).

    As it stands, I like our combination.

  93. Bruce McCurdy says:

    Nice recap of last night’s show, LT. I see you share my aversion to scouting wannabe goalers. #NoGoZone

  94. zatch says:

    rickithebear,

    This is one of your awful comparables again. You cherry picked an extremely specific range to strengthen your argument, ignored 100% of all context and then used it to imply that Shleppy will be better than Tarasenko.

    This isn’t shocking coming from someone who claims that Nagelvoort is the next Schneider because in one season they had similar numbers, ignoring all context and all numbers that happened before or since.

  95. "Steve Smith" (formerly of Peace River) says:

    Numenius: Stauffer kept saying “Loiselle” but it’s actually “Loiseau”, pronounced “Lwahzoh”.

    He also had trouble pronouncing Leveille’s name (should be, roughly, “Luhvayee”)

    Guess his French is a bit rusty.

    I’m with you on Leveille (mostly – I don’t know where you get the -“ee” at the end since, to the extent that there’s a syllable there, it’s more like “-uh”), but no rules of French pronunciation that I’ve ever heard of would lead to “Loiselle” being pronounced “Loiseau”. “-elle” is a very common word ending in French, and it’s always, to my knowledge, pronounced more-or-less as it would be in English. Do you have reason to believe that Loiselle himself pronounces it that way? If so, I’d say he doesn’t know what he’s talking about, as with the Côté family I once knew who pronounced it “Cody”.

    Doug McLachlan:
    In my view it makes the most sense to buy BOTH Ference and Nikitin out for a combined adjustment as follows:

    Can we do this? For some reason, I have it in my end that this new buyout window allows only a single buyout, but it is very, very possible that I made this up.

  96. Stanley 2018 says:

    Younger Oil,

    Just talked about it on LT’s show this morning as being a great thing. Not a rumor.
    Much as I freakin’ love that plan, it doesn’t leave much Cap room. No respect to Talbot but Goaltending situation is still a question mark, and if Draisaitl or Nurse make the team need room for bonus $$. Chiarelli needs $5mm left in the bank at season start, and this scenario puts team in LA/Pitts/SJ territory.

  97. Bruce McCurdy says:

    SwedishPoster: Where have you read that his B12 deficiency was caused by a viral infection? I haven’t read any cause anywhere and virosis is a pretty uncommon cause of B12-deficiency tbh, sure a chronic viral gastritis could lead to malabsorption but that usually only happens in people who are immunosupressed which I doubt is the case in an elite athlete. My guess would be either autoimmune disease, chronic gastritis due to heliobacter pylori or malnutrition(haven’t heard anything about him being vegan but that would explain a lot, he is born in a part of sweden where it’s fairly common though generally a little more south in Umeå, he’s from Luleå).

    I love it when you talk dirty.

    Is this what you do for a living, SwedishPoster, or just another amateur pursuit?

  98. "Steve Smith" (formerly of Peace River) says:

    Younger Oil:
    I don’t remember a huge backlash from drafting Nurse. I know quite a few people would have preferred Nichushkin or Ristolainen, but nobody was flat out angry for taking Nurse.

    This is my recollection as well. I believe that everybody was really, really hoping that Calgary passed on Monahan for some reason, but when they didn’t there was general satisfaction with the Nurse pick.

    Though I note that Yeti said that it provoked as much consternation as the Liam Coughlin trade, which would actually be pretty close to the truth.

  99. Stanley 2018 says:

    LMHF#1,

    I quoted it as stated, “best summer since ’06.” Safe to assume he was referring to the Playoff run.

  100. borisnikov says:

    A few people over the last few days (media, bloggers and comments alike) have mentioned Laggelia’s lack of size and how it’s going to be a significant hurdle for him to make it as an Oiler.

    With the renewed emphasis on size and modern skill sets on the blueline, that management is showing, could it be that there may be room for an undersized guy like him?… Specifically as a PP specialist down the road?

    A possible future top 4 of Skeras, Klefbom, Nurse and Reinhart with a stay at home banger and Laleggia as 5-6 against the soft parade at 5v5 seems plausible, no? (This is dependant on “all goes as planned” obviously.)

  101. TheOtherJohn says:

    zatch,

    As awful as comparing Nuge in draft+4 with Monahan in draft+2?

  102. zatch says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    I think there are some interesting numbers and ideas he has in there somewhere, but 90% of what he writes is pretty much nothing. It’s cherry picking numbers, arbitrarily deciding that certain statistics are the be all end all and that others are 100% worthless. He make a lot of ludicrous assumptions and as you see above with Klefbom, I feel like he sometimes just makes shit up, or sees what he wants to.

  103. Doug McLachlan says:

    If the Oilers buy out Ference (not sure his NMC would prevent a trade but let’s assume that he’s untradeable because of that or a lack of interest). Does that additional $2.5M this year and $2M next give enough space to sign Franson? I think it does.

    Sekera $5.5 – Fayne $3.625
    Klefbom $.894 – Franson $5.5
    Gryba $1.25 – Schultz $3.675
    Nikitin $4.5

  104. Woodguy says:

    Adam Wu: If you send him down “regardless of how he does in camp” if he is clearly and massively superior to the 5-6 option you kept ahead of him, then you are perpetuating the culture of entitlement, where ice time and roster spots are gifted to players for reasons other than performance, which breeds locker room dysfunction and sours your relationship with the player.

    What is best for the player is giving him what he has fairly and legitimately earned. The so-called Detroit Model isn’t sending the prospects down “regardless of how they do in camp”, it is making sure the NHL roster is stocked and balanced sufficiently that prospects have to earn their spots legitimately.

    If you want Nurse in the AHL at the start of next year, then the way to do that is to have 6 D on the NHL team that are better or at least equal to him.

    Only when there is equality between two players should considerations other than quality of play, like what is best for development, or who is waiver eligible, and so forth be used as the tiebreak for determining who plays. Otherwise you are being unfair to the player, unfair to the team, and unfair to the fans.

    And a culture of fairness is always the best for both development AND performance.

    Thank you very much for this post.

    Articulate and on point.

    Here’s the previous problem with the Oilers:

    1) Not enough NHL players
    2) Roster spots gifted to young players
    3) Young players slotted above their ability on the roster and get their collective heads stove in
    4) Rinse
    5) Repeat

    If the Oilers now have NHL level players available for every slot on the NHL roster then you can fully let “the law of the jungle” dictate roster spots because they will not be slotted above their ability nor, be given a spot they haven’t earned.

    You have to be a good NHLer to make the OIlers as a forward.
    We are not quite there yet on the D, but its very close
    The G is closer too as there might not be much to give between Nilsson, Scrivens and Broissoit.

    Oilers’ actual NHL Dmen (based on 14/15 results)

    Sekera
    Klef
    Schultz
    Nikitin
    Gryba

    They need to add at least one more to that mix.

    Non Acutal NHL players trying to take a spot:

    Ference
    Reinhart
    Nurse

    Its best to just get Ference out of the way, upgrade Niktin’s spot.

  105. Younger Oil says:

    borisnikov:
    A few people over the last few days (media, bloggers and comments alike) have mentioned Laggelia’s lack of size and how it’s going to be a significant hurdle for him to make it as an Oiler.

    With the renewed emphasis on size and modern skill sets on the blueline, that management is showing, could it be that there may be room for an undersized guy like him?… Specifically as a PP specialist down the road?

    A possible future top 4 of Skeras, Klefbom, Nurse and Reinhart with a stay at home banger and Laleggia as 5-6 against the soft parade at 5v5 seems plausible, no? (This is dependant on “all goes as planned” obviously.)

    This is no disrespect to Laleggia, but from what I’ve seen of him, I think a Brad Hunt comparable might be his ceiling. I just didn’t see one aspect of his game that can do enough to make up for him being so small.

    He wasn’t bad by any means, but didn’t stand out as much as the oldest defender in the camp by a wide margin should have. Nurse and Betker both showed better, and Leveille to my eye showed similar or better defence and offence, while being slower than Laleggia.

    I’m by no means writing him off from a rookie camp, I hope he does well, and he is very good value for a 5th round pick already, but I just don’t see him having an Oilers career.

  106. speeds says:

    I thought Nichushkin was the BPA at the time of the draft, and if EDM was going to take a D, I preferred Ristolainen to Nurse.

    I see nothing concrete enough to change my opinion to this point (although I do think one could argue Nurse has closed the gap, assuming there ever was one), but I’ll say the same thing now as then – that doesn’t mean Nurse isn’t a great prospect, and that doesn’t mean Nurse might not ultimately be the best of the 3.

  107. Магия 10 says:

    TSN starting a franchise poll. Who is your key offensive player? McDavid or Crosby.

    http://www.tsn.ca/franchise-faceoff

  108. Doug McLachlan says:

    Woodguy: Thank you very much for this post.Articulate and on point.Here’s the previous problem with the Oilers:1) Not enough NHL players2) Roster spots gifted to young players3) Young players slotted above their ability on the roster and get their collective heads stove in4) Rinse5) RepeatIf the Oilers now have NHL level players available for every slot on the NHL roster then you can fully let “the law of the jungle” dictate roster spots because they will not be slotted above their ability nor, be given a spot they haven’t earned.You have to be a good NHLer to make the OIlers as a forward.We are not quite there yet on the D, but its very closeThe G is closer too as there might not be much to give between Nilsson, Scrivens and Broissoit.Oilers’ actual NHL Dmen (based on 14/15 results)SekeraKlefSchultzNikitinGrybaThey need to add at least one more to that mix.Non Acutal NHL players trying to take a spot:FerenceReinhartNurseIts best to just get Ference out of the way, upgrade Niktin’s spot.

    Are we going to say that Nikitin is an actual NHL player?

    I am prepared to. Trying to decipher Burtch’s dCorsi and dFenwick metric I did see that a couple of years ago he looked pretty good. A full summer of broccoli and cardio could help him remember it.

    I’m now fully onboard the Franson bandwagon, IF the price and term are right.

    Two years at $5.5 puts him at 29 as a UFA after two seasons of teeing up the fab-four on the PP. Not the worst offer he has on the table, I suspect.

  109. speeds says:

    And, in the interest of disclosure, I would have been willing to trade Nurse in a deal for Hamilton, depending on the rest of the deal.

  110. Lois Lowe says:

    All of this talk about where Nurse and Draisaitl are going to play this year. No one wants to address the elephant in the room: McDavid has to play in the NHL or go back to junior next season. I’d hate to ruin his confidence or waste a year of his ELC.

    If the Oilers are serious about developing him properly, following the Detroit model, the best thing for him is to dominate in the OHL and focus on his two way play. We need to take the lessons of Sam Gagner and Anton Lander seriously, in hindsight Yak could have used an extra year in junior too.

  111. spoiler says:

    Wonder what the Toedrag/60 was last night, lol.

    You could tell last night was about showing off skill. Jones does a spin-o-rama move to take the puck down deep. Esposito was popping it between his legs to beat guys, Stukel had a couple of slick moves too.

    Was nice to see the skill on display. But the guy that really surprised me, and does every viewing was Betker. How the hell does he go in the 6th round? He’d have to be dumber than a bag of pucks to not have at least an Aulie career at this point. And he looks more athletic than Aulie.

    I’ve been saying since February it will be nigh on impossible to keep Nurse off this roster and I didn’t see anything last night to indicate otherwise. I thought he was having a little fun with McDavid by continually activating and forcing McD to cover the point.

  112. spoiler says:

    Lois Lowe,

    Tongue firmly planted in cheek?

  113. Lois Lowe says:

    spoiler,

    Toews went back for another year, it didn’t hurt him. McDavid could use a year to get stronger, he’s only slightly bigger than the Nuge was. The Western Conference centres are big, strong men.

    Does McDavid even shave?

  114. zatch says:

    speeds,

    If it were Nurse and the 16th, I’d likely do it. I may even have been tempted to throw the late 2nd rounder. Hamilton has NHL reps at a high level. That’s worth something.

  115. SwedishPoster says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    Yeah, I might have outed my livelihood there.
    Not a professional knower of swedish vegan culture I should probably add, that’s more a benefit of being born in the northern parts of Sweden though Luleå and Umeå is a pretty long way south from where I grew up.

  116. Магия 10 says:

    spoiler: I thought he was having a little fun with McDavid by continually activating and forcing McD to play the point.

    Someone had to keep 97 from scoring another 5. Expectations high enough as it is.

  117. digdeepnbleedblue says:

    SwedishPoster,

    Adam Wu,

    I think you guys are looking at it like it’s black or white and missing the grey area.

    Last season I was emphatic that both Klefbom and Marincin should be going up and down. Getting big minutes in the A and from time to time getting called up and playing against the best in the world.

    Development. Not trial by fire. Slow and steady development.

    I will echo that sentiment for both Rienhart and Nurse.

    However, if they are “there”, then they are.

  118. LP says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly of Peace River),

    I think part of the confusion here is the omission of the accents in French.

    His name is actually Loik Léveillé – notice the 2 E have an accent. (é = “eh”) . Lehvaiyeh – not sure how to better explain this pronouciation in English.

    http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=151531

    IMO, they should use the accents (and even on the jerseys) – French, Swedish or other. Not sure why that is an issue in 2015.

    Thank you LT for the amazing content!!

    And also to all the posters – no lack of interesting things to read around here!!

    Merci bien!!

    McDavid!!!!

    EDIT: I am referring to the Oilers and other teams using the proper accents – not us friends here. 🙂

  119. Lowetide says:

    Bruce McCurdy:
    Nice recap of last night’s show, LT. I see you share my aversion to scouting wannabe goalers. #NoGoZone

    Ha! I didn’t read yours until after I finished mine (this morning), but honestly couldn’t think of much to say. Oilers are going to be very different at that position by 2017 I expect.

  120. Lowetide says:

    LP: You’re welcome! It’s a team effort though. 🙂

  121. commonfan14 says:

    linkfromhyrule: In the end, I guess it really is a silly comparison to be making, being that it is not comparing apples to apples. Two very different players.

    They are exactly the same player and Nurse is way, way better.

    SUMMER OF McDAVID!!!

    Huge blocks of cheese for everyone!

  122. Lois Lowe says:

    SwedishPoster,

    As an amateur with an interest in high end athletic training, I was under the impression that immunosuppression was actually quite common in elite athletes due to cumulative effects of overtraining and/or fatigue.

  123. pocession charge says:

    Lois Lowe:
    All of this talk about where Nurse and Draisaitl are going to play this year. No one wants to address the elephant in the room: McDavid has to play in the NHL or go back to junior next season. I’d hate to ruin his confidence or waste a year of his ELC.

    If the Oilers are serious about developing him properly, following the Detroit model, the best thing for him is to dominate in the OHL and focus on his two way play. We need to take the lessons of Sam Gagner and Anton Lander seriously, in hindsight Yak could have used an extra year in junior too.

    He has already dominated the OHL. Another year isn’t going to benefit him at all. I understand the point you are making but the comparables you are using (including Yak) are not close to McDavid. And he’s at least 10-15 pounds heavier than Nuge was in 2011.

  124. Ice Sage says:

    Hope Darnell’s joie de vivre doesn’t follow family patterns
    http://www.tsn.ca/ex-nfl-quarterback-mcnabb-arrested-1.327399

  125. pocession charge says:

    zatch:
    speeds,

    If it were Nurse and the 16th, I’d likely do it. I may even have been tempted to throw the late 2nd rounder. Hamilton has NHL reps at a high level. That’s worth something.

    Lol. Okay, all kidding aside, what would you really have offered?

  126. Adam Wu says:

    digdeepnbleedblue:
    SwedishPoster,

    Adam Wu,

    I think you guys are looking at it like it’s black or white and missing the grey area.

    Last season I was emphatic that both Klefbom and Marincin should be going up and down. Getting big minutes in the A and from time to time getting called up and playing against the best in the world.

    Development. Not trial by fire. Slow and steady development.

    I will echo that sentiment for both Rienhart and Nurse.

    However, if they are “there”, then they are.

    When I said “if he is ready”, I mean black and white obviously and clearly ready.

    As pouzar said, you have to see hat happens in TC. Then you will know how many shades of grey you’ve actually got.

    Also, if it looks like he’s close, there’s nothing wrong with giving him a few real games and if it doesn’t go well, then send him down.

    But if he is clearly and obviously better than, say Ference, for the 6th spot, and you send him down “for development” what are you going to say to Hall et al regarding the games they will lose with Ference that they may have won with Nurse?

  127. Doug McLachlan says:

    Lois Lowe,

    Nice out of the herd thinking there.

    Still, I think you are taking Chiarelli’s “temper our expectations” discussion a little more seriously than…well, anyone.

    ‘Course it does push off those bonuses for another season…

  128. Adam Wu says:

    Also, it is not “trial by fire” if he is ready for that fire.

    If he is ready, then it is tempering with exactly enough fire.

  129. SwedishPoster says:

    Lois Lowe,

    Yeah you sometimes see it in athletes but overtraining, unless you’re being absolutely stupid about it, is usually due to malnutrition for your workload. Actual overtraining, again unless you’re being absolutely stupid about it, is pretty uncommon in athletes who knows what they are doing. When you hear about an elite athlete overtraining they’ve probably not been eating right, not sleeping enough or working out while carrying an infection, not actually working out too much.
    And the kind of immunosuppression I’m talking about here is more of the kind you see in elderly or sick people.

    I did forget another possible cause for his B12 deficiency btw, gluten intolerance, would make sense with him moving away from sweden and probably changing his diet quite a bit.

  130. "Steve Smith" (formerly of Peace River) says:

    LP:
    “Steve Smith” (formerly of Peace River),

    I think part of the confusion here is the omission of the accents in French.

    His name is actually Loik Léveillé– notice the 2 E have an accent. (é = “eh”) .Lehvaiyeh– not sure how to better explain this pronouciation in English.

    Oh. Yeah, the accents definitely change things. Still disagree with you about Loiselle, though.

    Edit: Wait, you haven’t said anything about Loiselle. I still disagree with Numenius, not you, about Loiselle. Sorry about that.

  131. Adam Wu says:

    Doug McLachlan: Are we going to say that Nikitin is an actual NHL player?

    All the numbers say that Nikitin is an actual NHL player, and MacT was absolutely right to call him one in that pressed he has been so famously pilloried for.

    Just not a top-end one.

    Same is true for Schultz.

  132. SwedishPoster says:

    Adam Wu: When I said “if he is ready”, I mean black and white obviously and clearly ready.

    As pouzar said, you have to see hat happens in TC. Then you will know how many shades of grey you’ve actually got.

    Also, if it looks like he’s close, there’s nothing wrong with giving him a few real games and if it doesn’t go well, then send him down.

    But if he is clearly and obviously better than, say Ference, for the 6th spot, and you send him down “for development” what are you going to say to Hall et al regarding the games they will lose with Ference that they may have won with Nurse?

    That was my point to, if he’s clearly ready he’s clearly ready. If he needs a slower approach he needs a slower approach. I just don’t like the idea of holding anyone back just because.

  133. Adam Wu says:

    At this point, unless they add another D, we could consider Nikitin (assuming health) to be the baseline for Nurse. If he substantially outplays a healthy Nikitin in TC then he stays, if not, it’s Bakersville. (also Bakersville if it is close).

    Frankly, that was probably the plan from the beginning. NN’s contract and term all screamed “hold Nurse’s lunch until Darnell’s ready” right from the moment he was acquired.

  134. spoiler says:

    Lois Lowe:
    spoiler,

    Toews went back for another year, it didn’t hurt him. McDavid could use a year to get stronger, he’s only slightly bigger than the Nuge was. The Western Conference centres are big, strong men.

    Does McDavid even shave?

    Well, LT has a photo above from the flick When Harry Met Sally. I find that LT rarely makes these choices willy-nilly; there is a reference there, something that resonates topically.

    He could have chosen the diner scene but didn’t, so this reference has nothing to do with faking it. This is the scene where the romance first starts… although at this particular moment she is talking about having sex on the kitchen floor with her ex.

    At any rate, the pay-off line for this movie is…

    I came here tonight because when you realize you want to spend the rest of your life with somebody, you want the rest of your life to start as soon as possible.

    Is this a reference to McDavid? I suspect it is.

    Connor has already blown up Juniors. There is nothing more for him there, and he knows he’s good enough to make The Show. That would do some detriment to his psyche methinks. This is not a kid walking around with a skewed sense of entitlement.

    Yes, some WC centers are big. I would suggest T-Mc makes McD his 3C, and feeds him butter minutes and all the PP time he can eat.

  135. rickithebear says:

    Hamilton -1 per game versus LAk; SJS; ANA; VCR
    Schultz 17gm -9 -.529/gm
    first 3 gm -5
    last 14 gm -4
    a little perspectve on the great D. Hamilton

    but he is the kind of length good forwards will have a problem attacking.

    Sekera 6’0′ 201lb – Fayne 6’3″ 215lb
    Nikitin 6’4″ 217lb – Klefbom 6’3″ 210lb
    Gryba 6’4′ 225lb- Schultz 6’2″ 196lb
    Reinhardt 6’4″ 217lb – Nurse 6’4″ 205-213lb

  136. pocession charge says:

    Adam Wu:
    At this point, unless they add another D, we could consider Nikitin (assuming health) to be the baseline for Nurse. If he substantially outplays a healthy Nikitin in TC then he stays, if not, it’s Bakersville. (also Bakersville if it is close).

    Frankly, that was probably the plan from the beginning. NN’s contract and term all screamed “hold Nurse’s lunch until Darnell’s ready” right from the moment he was acquired.

    Is Bakersville close to Bakersfield?

  137. pocession charge says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Bruce McCurdy,

    Yeah, I might have outed my livelihood there.
    Not a professional knower of swedish vegan culture I should probably add, that’s more a benefit of being born in the northern parts of Sweden though Luleå and Umeå is a pretty long way south from where I grew up.

    Swedish chef or physician?

  138. spoiler says:

    Let’s also keep in mind that McDavid has played against Nurse and survived quite nicely. Maybe that’s not the same as playing against the likes of Backes *spits* and Kesler *spits*, but that’s still playing against a physical force.

  139. "Steve Smith" (formerly of Peace River) says:

    spoiler,

    Far out, man. Far fucking out.

  140. SwedishPoster says:

    pocession charge: Swedish chef or physician?

    I only talk like the swedish chef.

  141. Halfwise says:

    "Steve Smith" (formerly of Peace River): Loiselle

    There is no player on the roster named Loiselle.

    There IS a player on the roster named Loiseau.

  142. Snowman says:

    Lois Lowe,

    I appreciate the looking out for what’s best for Mcdavid. Kid has huge expectations and tonnes of pressure. But he destroyed junior. Just destroyed it. Sending him back there doesn’t help him develop. And as for being slight… he isn’t.

    He’s 190 pounds. He’s already bigger than Nuge. Size isn’t an issue. Skill isn’t an issue. Speed isn’t an issue. Defensively he’s very good. This is a player that is as ready as you can be for the NHL. When Nuge was drafted he was 170 pounds. CMD has 20 pounds on him and probably an extra gear of speed.

    He’s not like other kids. He’s developed.

    Toews went back to college, where he was playing against men. CMD will go back to Junior where he is playing against kids. Big difference in development there.

  143. "Steve Smith" (formerly of Peace River) says:

    Halfwise: There is no player on the roster named Loiselle.

    There IS a player on the roster named Loiseau.

    In that case, I am monumentally full of shit.

  144. SwedishPoster says:

    pocession charge: Is Bakersville close to Bakersfield?

    Isn’t the Baskerville Dogs the new AHL team?

  145. Drew says:

    spoiler,

    Imagine Gretzky if he would have spent more time in junior? He coulda been pretty good.

    I agree he has nothing to prove in Junior (or minor league hockey for that matter).

  146. Pouzar says:

    I swear Oiler fans are obsessed with size.

    Carry on.

  147. Woodguy says:

    pocession charge: Is Bakersville close to Bakersfield?

    Are there hounds there?

  148. pocession charge says:

    SwedishPoster: Isn’t the Baskerville Dogs the new AHL team?

    Maybe you are thinking of the Barkerville Roadkill?

  149. pocession charge says:

    Pouzar:
    I swear Oiler fans are obsessed with size.

    Carry on.

    I was in the pool!!!

  150. pocession charge says:

    Woodguy: Are there hounds there?

    There might be one hound there in September if the Oilers can’t jettison Nikitin or Ference.

  151. pocession charge says:

    SwedishPoster: I only talk like the swedish chef.

    I can just picture you standing over your patient in the OR, randomly grabbing organs from the thoracic cavity and throwing them over your shoulder…

  152. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Lois Lowe:
    spoiler,

    Toews went back for another year, it didn’t hurt him. McDavid could use a year to get stronger, he’s only slightly bigger than the Nuge was. The Western Conference centres are big, strong men.

    Does McDavid even shave?

    I still don’t think Nuge shaves

    idk if I’ve ever been less concerned about a prospect adapting to the NHL

  153. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy: Thank you very much for this post.

    Articulate and on point.

    Here’s the previous problem with the Oilers:

    1) Not enough NHL players
    2) Roster spots gifted to young players
    3) Young players slotted above their ability on the roster and get their collective heads stove in
    4) Rinse
    5) Repeat

    If the Oilers now have NHL level players available for every slot on the NHL roster then you can fully let “the law of the jungle” dictate roster spots because they will not be slotted above their ability nor, be given a spot they haven’t earned.

    You have to be a good NHLer to make the OIlers as a forward.
    We are not quite there yet on the D, but its very close
    The G is closer too as there might not be much to give between Nilsson, Scrivens and Broissoit.

    Oilers’ actual NHL Dmen (based on 14/15 results)

    Sekera
    Klef
    Schultz
    Nikitin
    Gryba

    They need to add at least one more to that mix.

    Non Acutal NHL players trying to take a spot:

    Ference
    Reinhart
    Nurse

    Its best to just get Ference out of the way, upgrade Niktin’s spot.

    Fayne?

  154. Doug McLachlan says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Fayne should be on the list.

    So at present we can see:

    Sekera – Fayne (Top pair)
    Klefbom – Schultz (more sheltered min)
    Nikitin – Gryba
    Reinhart or Nurse as your #7?

    Would still like to see Franson slotted in for Schultz with Gryba/Nikitin/Schultz rotating in an out of the pressbox while Reinhart-Nurse eat up 20+ min a night in Bakersfield.

  155. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Doug McLachlan:
    LadiesloveSmid,

    Fayne should be on the list.

    So at present we can see:

    Sekera – Fayne (Top pair)
    Klefbom – Schultz (more sheltered min)
    Nikitin – Gryba
    Reinhart or Nurse as your #7?

    Would still like to see Franson slotted in for Schultz with Gryba/Nikitin/Schultz rotating in an out of the pressbox while Reinhart-Nurse eat up 20+ min a night in Bakersfield.

    I think Nikitin is gonezo and Ference/Davidson are #7/#8. I’d probably rather they buyout Ference than Niki, but leadership veteran character heart big stick.

    If Franson would sign for under 5M, I’d send Schultz packing for peanuts. I don’t know who brings the offence on next year’s blueline. Maybe Johnson and the McLellan PP unlock Schultz but who knows

  156. DocFan says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Lois Lowe,

    Yeah you sometimes see it in athletes but overtraining, unless you’re being absolutely stupid about it, is usually due to malnutrition for your workload. Actual overtraining, again unless you’re being absolutely stupid about it, is pretty uncommon in athletes who knows what they are doing. When you hear about an elite athlete overtraining they’ve probably not been eating right, not sleeping enough or working out while carrying an infection, not actually working out too much.
    And the kind of immunosuppression I’m talking about here is more of the kind you see in elderly or sick people.

    I did forget another possible cause for his B12 deficiency btw, gluten intolerance, would make sense with him moving away from sweden and probably changing his diet quite a bit.

    My understanding that this is most likely Pernicious Anemia…where you can’t actually absorb Vit B12 due to lack of Intrinsic Factor?

    From what I remember – you can get it from inflammatory bowel disorders where you can’t absorb B12 due to all the inflammation. You could get that from Celiac’s but not sure about gluten sensitivity.

    I find it hard a professional athlete having such a poor diet that they didn’t take in enough B12.

  157. Numenius says:

    LP: I think part of the confusion here is the omission of the accents in French.

    His name is actually Loik Léveillé – notice the 2 E have an accent. (é = “eh”) . Lehvaiyeh – not sure how to better explain this pronouciation in English.

    Oh, I see. Thanks for the correction.

    Good point that the NHL should always include the accents in such names. We primarily English speakers don’t realize how important those are in foreign words.

    “Steve Smith” (formerly of Peace River): I’m with you on Leveille (mostly – I don’t know where you get the -“ee” at the end since, to the extent that there’s a syllable there, it’s more like “-uh”)

    Yeah, you’re right about the “-uh” of course (if the name wouldn’t have the accents). I included the “ee” because the y itself wasn’t enough (there’s more going on than in the word “stay”, for example), but just adding the “uh” would have been better.

    “Steve Smith” (formerly of Peace River): In that case, I am monumentally full of shit.

    Ha! Don’t know where Stauffer got the name Loiselle from. Weird.

  158. rickithebear says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    zatch,

    As awful as comparing Nuge in draft+4 with Monahan in draft+2?

    Monohan 14-15 20 yr season
    RNH 14-15 21 yr season.
    Just terrible.

    2nd comp line
    Gaudreau (43 EVP) -Monohan (41 EVp) – Hudler (60 EVP)

    1st comp line
    pouliot (26)/Hall (32) – RNH (41) – Eberle (42)

    zatch:
    rickithebear,

    This is one of your awful comparables again. You cherry picked an extremely specific range to strengthen your argument, ignored 100% of all context and then used it to imply that Shleppy will be better than Tarasenko.

    This isn’t shocking coming from someone who claims that Nagelvoort is the next Schneider because in one season they had similar numbers, ignoring all context and all numbers that happened before or since.

    Did you go thru the TOI.
    The KH:L conf Games
    did you look at the Points/60 etc.

    there was 5min jump in ice time for Slepy in those games.
    tending.
    yes compared the similiar TOI games.
    rather than try to campre p rsults for a 11min + TOI player to a 18min + TOI player
    Glib with no effort! Buddy!
    they performed equally.

    How can this be?

    it is not just numbers.

    Heres your context
    Nagel voort
    12-13 18 yr .936 SV% NAHL top 3
    13-14 19yr .929 sv%
    14-15 20yr
    first 8 games w/ chabot .885 Sv%
    last 14 games .920 SV%
    Career NCAA .920 SV%
    Career NCAA without Chabot .928

    Chabot goalie coach has access to nagell voort.
    major drop of performance .
    chabot gone.
    revert back to yr 1 performance.

    Wonder what could have caused that drop.
    According to you it was nagel voort and solely nagel voort.

    Many things can affect performance trends. you need to identify the ones that turn off the performance.

    They can usually be excluded!
    like a 60% variance in TOI.

    you look at peers who achieved what Nagel voort did. in his size.
    6’0″ – 6’1″ seems to bee the point were golaies cannot achieve high end Save% .
    So you exclude those.

    What is found the higher end NCAA goalies in NHL were a higher than .920 career save% in NCAA and then racked ayear of .920 in AHL.

  159. wheatnoil says:

    Lois Lowe:
    spoiler,

    Toews went back for another year, it didn’t hurt him. McDavid could use a year to get stronger, he’s only slightly bigger than the Nuge was. The Western Conference centres are big, strong men.

    Does McDavid even shave?

    #Oilers bashed for rushing their players, keep them In junior to mature & save a ELC year. Now players getting paid huge coming out of ELC— Supernova (@romanmaximus1) July 7, 2015

    Hall & Tarasenko are interesting case studies from same year. Hall had nothing left to prove in junior, Tarasenko needed extra time.— Supernova (@romanmaximus1) July 7, 2015

    Supernova makes a good point here. Now, I’m not advocating rushing prospects because we all know where that got the Oilers. However, with fewer and fewer bridge deals and more high end RFAs getting paid the big bucks, there is one potential downside with sliding back a prospect (mostly for elite ones).

    Tarasenko spends 2 years in the KHL and then comes over to the NHL for his Draft + 3 year (lock-out shortened so he got an extra half-year in the KHL). In his first NHL year, he scores 0.5p/g. In his 2nd NHL year, he gets 0.67p/g. This last year, he’s at 0.95p/g as his ELC expires, then he cashes in with a $7.5M contract expiring in 2022/23. Tarasenko is 23 upon signing his first RFA contract.

    Hall is drafted in the same year and comes straight to the NHL. He scores 0.42p/g, then 0.87p/g. Then he signs his contract extension before the last year of his ELC for $6M x 7 yrs. He then cracks the 1.1p/g barrier in the last year of his ELC at the age of 21 and starts his second contract at that age. His contract expires in 2019/20.

    I’m not suggesting the Blues did wrong by keeping Tarasenko in the KHL, but it highlights a trade-off with Taylor. Had the Oilers sent Hall back for two years to Junior, which they would have been allowed to do, Hall would be just coming off his ELC this year. Now, we don’t know what he would have produced in these last years had that been the case, so this is all theoretical, but the point is that if he were to be signing his long-term contract now, he’d cost a lot more than $6M. He’d be getting at least Tarasenko or O’Reilly money and maybe more as neither of those players have ever cracked the point per game level. So it’s possible we’re looking at $7.5 or $8 or $8.5M a year.

    So, because the Oilers brought Taylor Hall along early, they are saving at least $1.5M (and maybe more) a year for the next 5 years. They’ll have to pay that back as his contract ends 2 years before Tarasenko’s, but who knows what the cap will be at that time. However, at that point, Hall will still only be 28, so if he signs a high-priced third contract, he’s still got a few years to go before he declines and that contract potentially becomes an albatross. Tarasenko will be 30 and that third contract may be problematic if he wants a full 6 or 7 years. Those last two years could be trouble.

    Obviously, this is all pretty theoretical and there’s a mountain of assumptions and ‘ifs’ in that analysis. However, it’s at least worth discussing that for elite forwards who are likely to be cashing in on their first RFA contract, the longer you wait, the more expensive that second contract is likely to be.

    Now, maybe McDavid will have a max contract after his ELC expires regardless, so it’s a moot point. However, there’s also a chance that sending him back to Junior for a year means he scores more points in every year of his ELC, and adds an extra million to his 2nd contract. It’s possible that an extra year pushes the cap up higher, which pushes the max contract up higher.

    It’s an interesting dilemma in cap management for these high-end elite forwards.

  160. Doug McLachlan says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    I think Franson is waiting on a number.

    If that number is $, he could be an Oiler.

    If that number is term, he probably won’t be.

    While Sekera’s game is one you can see investing 6 years in, Franson’s game (and the current UFA market) suggest is shorter term in the thinking.

    I can see a Ference buy-out (in a way I was unconvinced was wise only a week ago) and that the “savings” portions of those years being invested into a Franson signing of $11M over 2 years. Petry money, which he is apparently seeking, but not Petry term. That said, two years of boxcar padding with McDavid and company may be appealing to a player looking to knock it out of the park just as two more teams with $ and space to spare are entering the league. Worse times to become a UFA.

  161. spoiler says:

    wheatnoil: Obviously, this is all pretty theoretical and there’s a mountain of assumptions and ‘ifs’ in that analysis. However, it’s at least worth discussing that for elite forwards who are likely to be cashing in on their first RFA contract, the longer you wait, the more expensive that second contract is likely to be.

    Made this point to Mudcructh years ago. But yes, there’s a lot of depends in there, which was partly my point too… that you could not know that starting the ELC at 18 is the more expensive route.

  162. Ducey says:

    Adam Wu: When I said “if he is ready”, I mean black and white obviously and clearly ready.As pouzar said, you have to see hat happens in TC. Then you will know how many shades of grey you’ve actually got.Also, if it looks like he’s close, there’s nothing wrong with giving him a few real games and if it doesn’t go well, then send him down.But if he is clearly and obviously better than, say Ference, for the 6th spot, and you send him down “for development” what are you going to say to Hall et al regarding the games they will lose with Ference that they may have won with Nurse?

    You cannot look at training camp.

    How many guys have made the Oilers out of training camp only to show they couldn’t keep up once the season started? Nurse was one of them last year. See Leon last year, Lander is his first year.

    The only way you can know for sure if a prospect is ready is to send him the AHL and let him prove dominance over a decent sample size of games.

    Coincidentally (or not), its also how you make sure the prospect’s confidence is ready to withstand the rigors of playing in the NHL.

    If you believe that Nurse playing 13 NHL minutes a night is a good thing, then I guess you had no problem with the Oilers keeping Lander on the team in his first year.

  163. spoiler says:

    “Steve Smith” (formerly of Peace River):
    spoiler,

    Far out, man.Far fucking out.

    I think you must be referring to “When Harry Met Sally 2” aka Grampires.

  164. Adam Wu says:

    Ducey: You cannot look at training camp.

    How many guys have made the Oilers out of training camp only to show they couldn’t keep up once the season started?Nurse was one of them last year. See Leon last year, Lander is his first year.

    The only way you can know for sure if a prospect is ready is to send him the AHL and let him prove dominance over a decent sample size of games.

    Coincidentally (or not), its also how you make sure the prospect’s confidence is ready to withstand the rigors of playing in the NHL.

    If you believe that Nurse playing 13 NHL minutes a night is a good thing, then I guess you had no problem with the Oilers keeping Lander on the team in his first year.

    The narrative that Lander’s first year hurt his development in any way is just that, a narrative. He wasn’t ready, and when it was clear he wasn’t ready he should have been sent down, but NOT because doing that would be best for his development, but because doing that would have been best for the team.

    Saying that playing too soon in the NHL hurt his development because of loss of confidence or what have (“loss of confidence is as meaningless a phrase as “gritt”) is to imply that in some alternate universe if Lander hand been sent to the AHL instead he would have emerged in the NHL either sooner or better than he is doing now, and that is a hypothesis contrary to fact and a basic logical fallacy.

    For all we know, if he had been sent to the AHL right away, his development trajectory would have been exactly the same, except the team would not have had to suffer through his underperformance in the NHL, and that wobbly first year would have happened in the AHL. Or he would performed fine at the lower competition level, but would still have ended up exactly where he is now either way.

    And dominating at the AHL level does not tell you that a player is ready for the NHL. See Schultz, or for that matter, Brad Hunt, who routinely dominates at the AHL level. The only way to know for sure is to see them play at the NHL level. Absent that, you must use your judgement to *predict* whether or not they are ready based on the combination of prior performance and how they did in training camp. And that is what good coaches are paid for.

    The bottom line is, if a player is clearly among the best 6 defencemen in training camp, he should stay on the team, because performance should be fairly rewarded.

  165. godot10 says:

    There is no value-for-money in Franson. None. Zilch.

    He is not a top three defenseman defensively, so anything he brings is easily replaceable at less money and less term.

    The Oilers have plenty of D withi a shot to blast away from the point on the power play. With the forwards the Oilers have, paying for a playmaking D for the power play is a waste of money. We want McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins handling the puck on the power play.

    It makes me a bit nervous that the is still out there, but he is such an awful fit for the Oilers now that Sekera has been sign that I’m not sweating it too much. I’m confident Chiarelli won’t bite.

    Franson sucks. The team that signs him will regret it.

  166. Numenius says:

    Watching Draisaitl tear down the right wing yesterday made me think of this option for next year:

    Hall-Nuge-Ebs
    Pouliot-McDavid-Draisaitl
    Purcell-Lander-Yak
    Korpikoski-Letestu-Hendricks
    Klink

    Hall attracts the toughs, so don’t put him with McDavid right away. Rather, put him with Nuge and Ebs and let them take do their thing, leaving McDavid in the more sheltered role he needs at the beginning.

    Give McDavid Pouliot and Draisaitl because they’re sufficiently defensively responsible, have good size, can do the grunt work in the corners, and have sufficient complementary skill and speed. Plus, Draisaitl needs goal scorers to dish to, and I can see him loving tearing up the right side and dishing to McDavid or Pouliot. It’s easy to think of McDavid as primarily a playmaker (which he is), but he’s also an elite goal scorer, and Draisaitl would help maximize this.

    Give Yak two defensively responsible yet sufficiently skilled players on a soft minutes line, who can do the work in the corners and get Yak the puck.

    Have a solid tough minutes line that still can score a little, if McLellan is willing to have such a thing.

    I like it a lot.

  167. Adam Wu says:

    And I see zero evidence that either Leon’s or Nurse’s development was *hurt* by being “rushed” into the NHL last year, either. I see zero evidence that if only they had not been “rushed” last year they would be better players now than they currently are, which is what “hurting” their development would mean. Both are tracking exactly as we would hope they’d be irrespective of where they played last year.

    The TEAM was hurt by putting them in too early, because they couldn’t perform competitively, and the team would have done better if they had found real NHL ready players to take those roster spots.

    But the players themselves? Absolutely zero evidence that they have been hurt. Leon may well have benefitted, since his NHL time enabled him to eventually return to junior to a better team and program.

  168. digdeepnbleedblue says:

    Adam Wu,

    SwedishPoster,

    I suppose I could reply with some shmancy words, but I won’t.

    Instead, I’ll paraphrase are very smart hockey mind: I have never heard of someone’s development being hurt by spending time in the AHL. – Ray (the I’ll say what I believe) Ferraro

  169. Adam Wu says:

    With all respect to Babcock, saying the NHL is not a developmental league is really poppycock. The kind of red meat you throw out to the media, because there actually is no such thing as a “developmental” league anywhere in the sense that there is a specific place to put all you developing players.

    The best developmental position for any player is one where he is consistently challenged just above his current level, so that by upping the quality of his play incrementally, he can keep up. You don’t want him in so over his head that he has no chance of treading water no matter how much he tries, and you don’t want him so dominant that he can do as he please without effort.

    And for each individual player, whatever league best provides that level of competition is where he should go. For some that is the AHL, for some that is back in junior. And for some that IS the NHL.

  170. Snowman says:

    Numenius,

    That was exactly the lineup I came up with when I sat down and thought about it. It addresses every thing I think needs to happen.

    Yak with someone who has enough skill to get him the puck and enough defense to cover for him. Yak gets easiest comp to chew through.

    Mcdavid sheltered from the toughs and with players skilled enough to play with and defensively responsible puck retriever types.

  171. rich says:

    godot10:
    There is no value-for-money in Franson.None.Zilch.

    He is not a top three defenseman defensively, so anything he brings is easily replaceable at less money and less term.

    The Oilers have plenty of D withi a shot to blast away from the point on the power play.With the forwards the Oilers have, paying for a playmaking D for the power play is a waste of money.We want McDavid and Nugent-Hopkins handling the puck on the power play.

    It makes me a bit nervous that the is still out there, but he is such an awful fit for the Oilers now that Sekera has been sign that I’m not sweating it too much.I’m confident Chiarelli won’t bite.

    Franson sucks.The team that signs him will regret it.

    This. All. Day. Long.

    If you think people here HATED Poti, Gilbert and Petry, you haven’t seen a thing yet for the hate on the Oiler fan base will have for Franson. Not a physical player, slow footed. He’ll bring more offense than Schultz but will be a Schultz replacement that will cost more. He is not capable of playing top 4D, he’s a 3rd pairing d-man.

    Pass.

  172. Adam Wu says:

    digdeepnbleedblue:
    Adam Wu,

    SwedishPoster,

    I suppose I could reply with some shmancy words, but I won’t.

    Instead, I’ll paraphrase are very smart hockey mind: I have never heard of someone’s development being hurt by spending time in the AHL. – Ray (the I’ll say what I believe) Ferraro

    No player’s development has been hurt, but TEAMS have been hurt when they have erroneously left players ready to play in the NHL too long in the AHL by the simple fact of not having those capable players in their NHL lineup. Case in point, the Oilers last year with Marincin.

  173. Doug McLachlan says:

    godot10: There is no value-for-money in Franson. None. Zilch.

    Doesn’t this statement depend on the money and the value?

    I get the foot speed argument but is everyone pushing for him wrong on the possession numbers?

    Short-term deal might well be a value contract if the price is $5.5 or less, no?

  174. dessert1111 says:

    Does everyone remember when MacT essentially said he drafted Nurse because he saw a picture of his sister in an in-flight magazine and ran into his grandpa?

    So far so good, but thank goodness Chia is now in charge.

  175. Yeti says:

    dessert1111: Does everyone remember when MacT essentially said he drafted Nurse because he saw a picture of his sister in an in-flight magazine and ran into his grandpa?

    Do you remember the times when MacT used a lot of deadpan humour that some people took seriously? Like when he joked about Reasoner being Joe Sakic if only he had an extra step? It was a joke.

    That said, I am very happy Chiarelli is in charge.

  176. digdeepnbleedblue says:

    Adam Wu: No player’s development has been hurt, but TEAMS have been hurt when they have erroneously left players ready to play in the NHL too long in the AHL by the simple fact of not having those capable players in their NHL lineup. Case in point, the Oilers last year with Marincin.

    That case in point is not a very good one as Marincin didn’t have a very good season last year.

    Davidson was clearly more ready and far more willing.

    Neither player would have changed the fate of the Oilers last year, I’m afraid.

  177. Ducey says:

    Adam Wu: The narrative that Lander’s first year hurt his development in any way is just that, a narrative. He wasn’t ready, and when it was clear he wasn’t ready he should have been sent down, but NOT because doing that would be best for his development, but because doing that would have been best for the team.Saying that playing too soon in the NHL hurt his development because of loss of confidence or what have (“loss of confidence is as meaningless a phrase as “gritt”) is to imply that in some alternate universe if Lander hand been sent to the AHL instead he would have emerged in the NHL either sooner or better than he is doing now, and that is a hypothesis contrary to fact and a basic logical fallacy.For all we know, if he had been sent to the AHL right away, his development trajectory would have been exactly the same, except the team would not have had to suffer through his underperformance in the NHL, and that wobbly first year would have happened in the AHL. Or he would performed fine at the lower competition level, but would still have ended up exactly where he is now either way.And dominating at the AHL level does not tell you that a player is ready for the NHL. See Schultz, or for that matter, Brad Hunt, who routinely dominates at the AHL level. The only way to know for sure is to see them play at the NHL level. Absent that, you must use your judgement to *predict* whether or not they are ready based on the combination of prior performance and how they did in training camp. And that is what good coaches are paid for.The bottom line is, if a player is clearly among the best 6 defencemen in training camp, he should stay on the team, because performance should be fairly rewarded.

    Well, I guess we will have to disagree.

    You are right we can never know how fast Lander would have developed, but its pretty clear that once he got farmed out he started to make strides. Its also clear he developed a lot of skills he didn’t have the first time around. There is no way he was ever playing PP minutes in the NHL unless he proved that he could do it in the AHL.

    Would you agree that no one has ever been hurt by being sent down?
    Would you also agree that many players have been hurt by being in the NHL too early?

    And fairness has nothing to do with it. You can slice that egg 10 different ways. Wouldn’t it be fairest to the player to do what is in his interest in the long term? How is it fair for Nikitin or Ference to lose their jobs to a Nurse based on 5 preseason games and a training camp?

    And Training camp. 5 games and some drills. Most of the time the vets on other teams are healthy scratches and guys like Nurse are playing against AHLers. Its a lot different from playing the LA KIngs in game 25. It just is not a good gauge of anything.

    Plenty of players, including Nurse and Leon, both acknowledged being sent down last year helped them. Keeping Leon up as long as they did was a mistake, pure and simple.

    Oh, and Schultz and Hunt put up gaudy AHL point totals. That doesn’t mean they dominated that level. If they were dominant defensively, (say if Schultz learned to play physically or break the cycle) we likely would not have concerns about them. They never learned it at the AHL level. Until they did/ do they should not have been elevated.

  178. Ducey says:

    Adam Wu: No player’s development has been hurt, but TEAMS have been hurt when they have erroneously left players ready to play in the NHL too long in the AHL by the simple fact of not having those capable players in their NHL lineup. Case in point, the Oilers last year with Marincin.

    I guess you don’t see the irony in that Marincin was sent down based on training camp, yet you would decide on Nurse based on training camp.

  179. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid: Fayne?

    Oops.

    That’s why we only need one more NHL Dman.

  180. Adam Wu says:

    Ducey: I guess you don’t see the irony in that Marincin was sent down based on training camp, yet you would decide on Nurse based on training camp.

    No. I said that the decision is made based on the players prior performance up to the present PLUS training camp. That for Nurse would be all his play this year in juniors, plus last year in the NHL, plus his brief stint in the AHL playoffs PLUS training camp.

    And for Marincin that would be his play in the previous season plus his performance in training camp.

    It was well nigh unanimous on this forum that Marcincin should not have been sent down last year after training camp, because his training camp was NOT poor. It wasn’t as good as we expected, but he was STILL better than the 6th best D available. In other words, he WAS NOT sent down because of his training camp performance, because by his training camp performance, he deserved to stay. Only Eakins and MacT know the real reason he was sent down (my guess was that it had to do with waiver eligibility relative to other prospects) but the point is that he wasn’t sent down based on merit and performance, and that was and is the problem.

    People were literally howling with rage over him being sent down, and they were all RIGHT.

  181. godot10 says:

    //Short-term deal might well be a value contract if the price is $5.5 or less, no?//

    Franson requires soft minutes. So he is a horrible fit for the OIlers since they will be breaking in young defensemen for the forseeable future who require those soft minutes.

    Franson screws up the ability of the Oilers to develop their young defensemen properly.

    Not just Nurse, Reinhart, AND Klefbom, but how does one break in Osterle if one has Franson on the roster, who is a soft minutes offensive defensemen.

    The Oilers need D to pair, protect, or mentor their young D. That means the money has to be spent on D who can play the defensive side of defense, not the offensive side.

    Franson folded under the pressure in Nashville. Petry didn’t fold under the pressure in Montreal.

  182. Adam Wu says:

    Ducey:

    Would you agree that no one has ever been hurt by being sent down?
    Would you also agree that many players have been hurt by being in the NHL too early?

    I would agree that no player has ever been hurt by being sent down.

    But I DO NOT AGREE that many players have been hurt by being in the NHL too early. ALL of that to me is nothing more that narrative after the fact trying to justify why a player did not perform to expectations. ALL of that is nothing more than hypothesis contrary to fact and ALL of that is logical fallacy all the way down.

    I would say that it is possible that a player, if put in the NHL too early, *might* be hurt if they are stubbornly left in the NHL *too long*. But so long as the player is sent down after it becomes clear that they are not managing at the NHL level, I don’t think any of those players are actually *hurt* by that half-season or single season long stint in the NHL. The ones for whom we spin the narrative of them being “hurt” because they failed as prospects in the end are the ones who never had it in them to succeed to begin with.

  183. Rondo says:

    godot10:
    //Short-term deal might well be a value contract if the price is $5.5 or less, no?//

    Franson requires soft minutes.So he is a horrible fit for the OIlers since they will be breaking in young defensemen for the forseeable future who require those soft minutes.

    Franson screws up the ability of the Oilers to develop their young defensemen properly.

    Not just Nurse, Reinhart, AND Klefbom, but how does one break in Osterle if one has Franson on the roster, who is a soft minutes offensive defensemen.

    The Oilers need D to pair, protect, or mentor their young D.That means the money has to be spent on D who can play the defensive side of defense, not the offensive side.

    Franson folded under the pressure in Nashville. Petry didn’t fold under the pressure in Montreal.

    Jan Hejda maybe the short term answer, if he can still skate , he would help the D-men.

  184. commonfan14 says:

    digdeepnbleedblue: Instead, I’ll paraphrase are very smart hockey mind: I have never heard of someone’s development being hurt by spending time in the AHL. – Ray (the I’ll say what I believe) Ferraro

    I like Ferraro, but I really dislike this mantra (which I’ve heard from many hockey people).

    Of course nobody who made the NHL who spent time in the AHL was hurt by it. They made the NHL, so obviously they did fine.

    On the other hand, the hockey world is full of guys who were drafted and never made it past the AHL. What happened to them? Weren’t they on the best possible development path?

    Ferraro and all the other guys who beat this drum have to believe that every single one of these guys was just never good enough to begin with, which is a pretty sweeping judgement.

    If a guy with NHL potential goes to the AHL, gets stuck there in maybe a bad situation, learns a bunch of bad habits or gets discouraged and never makes the NHL, we never hear of him again.

    It doesn’t mean he doesn’t exist or that he couldn’t have done better with a different path.

    Hell, maybe even Schremp could have had a different career if he’d been thrown into the NHL earlier and forced to adapt his style to the NHL game at a younger age. Instead, one could say that he spent years putting up points playing the wrong way in inferior leagues where he could get away with it and never recovered.

  185. "Steve Smith" (formerly of Peace River) says:

    Yeti: Do you remember the times when MacT used a lot of deadpan humour that some people took seriously? Like when he joked about Reasoner being Joe Sakic if only he had an extra step? It was a joke.

    “Dangerous at both ends of the ice” – MacT, on Igor Ulanov’s two-goal game.

    Oddly, and by sheer coincidence, I was just this morning trying to figure out where the moniker “Marty Sakic” came from. Thank you for answering my unasked question.

  186. Adam Wu says:

    To whit:

    If after training camp, taking into account all performance prior to and including training camp, Nurse (or GR, or anyone) clearly is not among the top 6 D, (or the top 3 for his side), then he goes down.

    If it is debatable between Nurse and say Nikitin or Ference who is the 6th D in performance, then Nurse goes down, because developmental concerns is the tiebreaker when performance is close to equal. Nurse becomes first injury call-up, and will likely get his chance soon enough.

    If it is obvious that Nurse is clearly better than both Nikitin and Ference (or whoever else is there) such that it is indisputable that he belongs among the top 6 D, or top 3 for his side, then he stays, and he is given whatever amount of ice time the coaches deem he has earned based on his performance.

    Any other outcome becomes entitlement, the gifting of ice time to veterans who did not earn it, not for their on ice performance, but purely for their status as veterans, and that is the fastest way to locker room rot.

  187. "Steve Smith" (formerly of Peace River) says:

    Adam Wu,

    I think a good chunk of Ducey’s point is that it’s virtually impossible to make this assessment with any confidence from training camp. If we based the opening night roster exclusively on who performed best at training camp, there’d be a bunch of pretty good NHLers who’d find themselves sent down to the minors every fall.

    Edit: I see that you already acknowledged this above. I should probably stop posting for today.

  188. Adam Wu says:

    It should also be noted that, assuming Nurse is indeed the player we hope and think he is, if he legitimately earns a 3rd pairing NHL spot, at 13-15min a game, he is unlikely to stay there the whole season.

    With the benefit of constant exposure to NHL mentors, practice against NHL level forwards (we should not discount just how much benefit having someone like McDavid available to practice with daily can have for an emerging D like Nurse), and NHL level coaching from McLellan and team, we should expect to see Nurse gradually improve and earn ever more ice time as the year goes on.

    Which would be precisely the best development path for him, assuming he legitimately earns that 3rd pairing spot to start out with.

  189. Woodguy says:

    Loving me some Adam Wu.

  190. AsiaOil says:

    We needed 2 dmen coming in (one longterm & one short term) and 2 of FNSM going out this summer. We got the long term guy in Sekera – big score – and now we just need the short term bridge guy to protect Reinhart and Nurse and keep them on the 3rd pair or AHL this season. Franson is not that guy IMHO – but Erhoff could be depending on health and Hejda may also fit.

    Marincin is gone already and buying out Ference makes a ton of sense as the 2nd guy out since he was just so god damn historicially awful by sight and the numbers entirely confirmed it. Nikitin’s contract is over next summer and we can try to trade him with money retained, waive him, or send him down. Ference insisting on the NMC ended up making him the obvious buyout since this is the only way to get rid of him – we need to just do it.

    Man it’s nice to see mgmt actually looking at and taking advantage of the options that present themselves – like the buyout window offered by arbing Shultz and bringing in a 3rd goalie as insurance since all it will cost is dollars (no cap). Chia knows we need another dman but signing Sekera on day 1 allows us to try for the shorter term we need on the 2nd guy. Patience and let the man work – he knows what he’s doing.

  191. Ancient Oilers Fan says:

    Not that it really matters but, en francais, it is LÉVEILLÉ making it Lay-vay-yay.

    See elite prospects http://www.eliteprospects.com/player.php?player=151531

  192. spoiler says:

    Adam Wu: I would agree that no player has ever been hurt by being sent down.

    But I DO NOT AGREE that many players have been hurt by being in the NHL too early. ALL of that to me is nothing more that narrative after the fact trying to justify why a player did not perform to expectations. ALL of that is nothing more than hypothesis contrary to fact and ALL of that is logical fallacy all the way down.

    I would say that it is possible that a player, if put in the NHL too early, *might* be hurt if they are stubbornly left in the NHL *too long*. But so long as the player is sent down after it becomes clear that they are not managing at the NHL level, I don’t think any of those players are actually *hurt* by that half-season or single season long stint in the NHL. The ones for whom we spin the narrative of them being “hurt” because they failed as prospects in the end are the ones who never had it in them to succeed to begin with.

    I’m in AW. Well said, throughout the thread.

    I would like to add that no matter where you start, there’s always a learning curve when you come to the NHL. Especially as a defenseman. If the ability to compete at that level is present, then there’s no point in delaying that learning curve (and as AW puts it, discouraging ability and encouraging entitlement).

    You have to learn the opposing players… their speed, do they have another gear, how much gap can I give and not get beat, how long on their sticks, what are their tricks in the corners…? It will take time, and there will still be some brainfarts of youth, but delaying the start of learning the league is delaying the start of when he will be useful to McDavid.

  193. digdeepnbleedblue says:

    Adam Wu,

    Let me first say there’s some good verbal going on here. Always fun to talk shop. Or fanatic observation? Myself, obviously, included.

    Where I feel the disconnect is is in portraying best developmental path could equal entitlement.

    New admin. New ideals. And the hope, from this fanatic, is that Nurse’s development will be top priority. Thus, the health of the Oilers going forward.

    Plus, I’ve never suggested Nurse should be just sent down for the fuck of it. Nor do I think anyone has.

    I’ll leave with this: let the rooks learn in the A, make there mistakes there, come up and learn some more. Because, I don’t believe thier mistakes should cost you games. Unless, of course, they are entitled to.

  194. till_horcoff_is_coach says:

    I’ll just refresh us to Nurse’s first shift: http://youtu.be/jcbVNmfAgnY?t=2m10s

    Goes for a big hit and misses.

    Overcompensates on coverage on the wall which leads directly to a goal.

    First shift. Jitters. It happens, but this was his identified weakness and he wasn’t able to push down his instincts. The NHL is fast and Nurse will be a talent to watch, but IMO he has to greatly reduce those tendencies to play.

    If not the go to the AHL and refine those instincts. Learn some of the tricks that do and don’t work. Surely he will develop more in the NHL but trial by fire simply because the team isn’t quite yet balanced enough does not seem like the best development method.

    All that said, there is a very likely chance that he is ready and if so then let him have it.

  195. Numenius says:

    Woodguy:
    Loving me some Adam Wu.

    Ditto. He’s always a good read.

  196. Numenius says:

    Snowman,

    Good to hear! Now we just have to convince TMac.

  197. Richard S.S. says:

    An ELC is a very special thing, but it expires much too soon. McDavid is a step above Eichel who’s a step above Crosby who’s at least two steps above everyone. That type of talent needs to nurtured and taught at this level by the best there is, not sent down to be taught by much less than the best.

    Are we not too close to the cap already? After checking: http://www.generalfanager.com/teams/edmonton-oilers
    Connor McDavid’ probable bonus’s make his potential salary $2.85 Million more than listed. Tyler Pitlick’s salary is not included, possibly $800 K. Justin Schultz’s salary is not included, at least $3.765 Million. I make the cap space as just $135 K also known as cap-tight. So we are not making any new acquisitions without $ for $ exchange, no matter what we wish.

    Buyouts can create cap space when it’s desperately needed, like now. Teddy Purcell is redundant and replaceable with one year at $4.5 MM. The only other person that has any value in being bought out is Nikita Nikitin with one year at $4.5 MM. Carrying a few extra million for a second year is insignificant with the acquisition of around $6.0 Million in additional cap space. This is the only way to take advantage of Cap-tight Teams.

  198. Bruce McCurdy says:

    till_horcoff_is_coach:
    I’ll just refresh us to Nurse’s first shift: http://youtu.be/jcbVNmfAgnY?t=2m10s

    Goes for a big hit and misses.

    Overcompensates on coverage on the wall which leads directly to a goal.

    First shift. Jitters. It happens, but this was his identified weakness and he wasn’t able to push down his instincts. The NHL is fast and Nurse will be a talent to watch, but IMO he has to greatly reduce those tendencies to play.

    If not the go to the AHL and refine those instincts.Learn some of the tricks that do and don’t work. Surely he will develop more in the NHL but trial by fire simply because the team isn’t quite yet balanced enough does not seem like the best development method.

    All that said, there is a very likely chance that he is ready and if so then let him have it.

    Yeah, Nurse’s mistakes there wouldn’t have likely resulted in a goal against in the AHL because an AHL goalie would have made that save. 😐

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