HOW LONG IS HOW LONG?

In the year before Crosby, Pittsburgh was pitiful. The Penguins managed a paltry 23 wins and 58 points. In the season Crosby arrived? 58 points! Again! 22 wins! God lord what a mess. Now, Crosby’s men started badly but made the playoffs in year two, the finals in year three and won Stanley in year four!

Please baby Jesus, let this be our destiny. But could you hurry up a little? Some of us miss the Stanley something awful.

mcdavid capture 12

McDavid’s Oilers should be better than Crosby’s Penguins in year one. Here are the leading scorers from 2005-06 in Pittsburgh:

  1. Sidney Crosby 81GP, 39-63-102
  2. Sergei Gonchar 75GP, 12-46-68
  3. Mark Recchi 63GP, 24-33-57 (traded at deadline to Carolina)
  4. John LeClair 73GP, 22-29-51

The good young (25 and under) players on the team (Colby Armstrong, Ryan Malone, Ryan Whitney, Maxime Talbot, Brooks Orpik, Marc-Andre Fleury) were destined to have good not great careers (there are no HHOFers, although Orpik and Fleury are still writing their resume’s).

I’d suggest the Edmonton 25 and under group who will join McDavid this fall (Taylor Hall, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Nail Yakupov, Justin Schultz, Anton Lander, Oscar Klefbom, Leon Draisaitl) are going to have a better careers than the group above, but then again Edmonton doesn’t have Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal and Kris Letang warming up in the bullpen.

The Oilers have terrific young talent and could spike this coming season. One of the keys to a successful year? Todd McLellan’s ability to get this group doing things like getting the puck out of the zone quickly and under control. The bottom line is this: It’s not about playing defense, it’s about NOT having the puck in your zone for one second longer than required. Real estate’s key (location) is also hockey’s key. Pass the puck, under control. Easier said than done.

The Oilers drafted Gustafsson in 2012, didn’t sign him and he caught the attention of Chicago’s scouts this winter. His initial resume sounded interesting and he made my prospect list one winter (2013) but I’m not going to rip up the current regime over it. Gustafsson was drafted during the Tambellini era, and Craig MacTavish flushed a large group of retro prospects (Hartikainen, Rajala, others). That’s NOT unusual, we’re going to see that next summer in a big way and Peter Chiarelli wasted no time in sending away Martin Marincin, a player who could bite the organization in the ass early and often.

The key point here is waiting five years. I have zero problem making the call on the 2010 draft—if Curtis Hamilton turns it around in a new town, then that’s fabulous, but he got his at-bats in the Oilers’ system and couldn’t establish himself. However, making the call on the 2011 draft (Dillon Simpson, as an example) or 2012 (Joey Laleggia another) implies we know things we cannot possibly know. NHL players, most of them, take time. Hold back your water on making the call 2011+. It’s the right thing to do.

JETS VOLLMAN SLEDGEHAMMER

jets vollman

Peter Chiarelli has shown an ability to be aggressive while also taking what the market gives him, and one team that could have a defenseman of note available at some point this season is Winnipeg. Dustin Byfuglien is UFA 2016 summer, and the top four D in 2016-17 could be Tyler Myers, Tobias Enstrom, Jacob Trouba and one of Stuart, Chiarot or they could sign Byfuglien but that’s big money and there’s a bit of the Ottawa Senators in their budgets. Would you be willing to pony up for the big man?

MCLELLAN’S BLUE

Todd McLellan’s defensive teams in San Jose had some real gems, like Marc-Edouard Vlasic. Can McLellan do the voodoo he do with this bunch in Edmonton? Hmmm.

san jose blue vollman

sharks 1415 vollman

That’s two seasons worth, 2014-15 looks like they ran with Vlasic—Braun with the tough ZS’s and then all the rest rotated as their shifts came up. Previous season much the same? WHO is Vlasic—Braun? Well, Edmonton has two candidates for heavy lifting with between 2 and 77 games of NHL experience. How did McLellan handle Braun in his first full season?

11-12 sharksMcLellan brought the young Lloyd Braun along slowly, as coaches often do (except for Edmonton). What does this mean for Edmonton’s 2015-16 defense? We should assume that “NHL GP” will have a lot to do with deployment and who plays in Edmonton or is down on the farm:

  1. Andrew Ference 901
  2. Andrej Sekera 486
  3. Mark Fayne 316
  4. Niki Nikitin 248
  5. Justin Schultz 203
  6. Eric Gryba 165
  7. Oscar Klefbom 77
  8. Griffin Reinhart 8
  9. Darnell Nurse 2

Given the choice of an emerging Justin Braun and a flagging Douglas Murray, Todd McLellan went with the veteran. It’s wise for us to consider that as we project into next season. I’m figuring out the RE’s now and unless Peter Chiarelli buys someone out, the defense is going to be played by a bunch of guys who stumbled and bumbled one year ago. Todd McLellan, bring your magic wand. Please.

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143 Responses to "HOW LONG IS HOW LONG?"

  1. Ducey says:

    Its seems trading for Big Buff has the same problems as trading for Seabrook. Buff will cost a lot – I would think Leon would have to be part of the package, givin WPG’s love of size – and then Buff would cost a lot to sign. Given he is not exactly Gary Roberts in the fitness department, you have to think the back end of the contract might wind up being a Penneresqe, syrup covered mess.

    I think there is a decent chance he will want to go UFA to maximize his last contract. Just wait a year.

  2. smellyglove says:

    Hey LT, if you’re interested in other photos of McDavid, I noticed quite a few Creative Commons (ie: free to use) ones of him at camp on Flickr:

    https://www.flickr.com/search/?text=connor%20mcdavid&license=2%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C6%2C9

  3. schmed says:

    there’s been great debate lately about Seabrook, what would you guys think of making a call to Tampa? They have loads of D, and need cap relief. I would like to see them try and swindle Stralman or even Coburn.

  4. Lowetide says:

    smellyglove:
    Hey LT, if you’re interested in other photos of McDavid, I noticed quite a few Creative Commons (ie: free to use) ones of him at camp on Flickr:

    https://www.flickr.com/search/?text=connor%20mcdavid&license=2%2C3%2C4%2C5%2C6%2C9

    Thanks!

  5. pts2pndr says:

    I may be naive but I trust in the current management team. I think they will make more moves aft TC . This will give TMac time to evaluate his current roster and determine a course of action!

  6. jonrmcleod says:

    I just wish the Oilers’ defensemen could be more like Lloyd Braun.

  7. Lowetide says:

    jonrmcleod: !

    GOOD FOR YOUR, LLOYD!

  8. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    The best part of that run of episodes (multi-season IIRC) was when George got stuck having to fake a muscular tick in his arm.

  9. gd says:

    I am pretty satisfied with Chia’s offseason. The Sekera/Talbot adds should be enough for team to improve enough to turn north to around 20th this year, with next year the “playoff or bust” season.

    I think this season is for Chia/TMc to evaluate the core and decide on who is expendable and hopefully maximize that guy’s trade value. I think he feels he has 4 of the top 5 D that will be here to win the cup in Sekera, plus Klef/Nurse/Reinhart (or maybe Schultz, Davidson or one of the other prospects). The goal is to find the best possible top 4 Dman with the assets that he can afford. I think he is going to play a patient game to find that guy. It could be a cap dump in September, or it could be from some team that struggles next year and decides to go for Matthews, or he is okay waiting until next offseason.

    I think the Oilers should be able to follow the Penguins timetable, as the West has a lot of teams moving past their peaks in the next couple of years. San Jose and Vancouver are one or two years from bottoming out. LA, Chi, StL, Minn have an aging core and cap issues so they should be passable in a couple of years. Colorado looks like it is being run by their version of the OBN. Dallas and Nashville are in funny spots where they have a lot of age mixed with some youth. Winnipeg is sort of the same with good prospects, but their core is getting up there. Anaheim also has good prospects and elite young D, but once Getzlaf/Perry/Kesler start aging, how good will they be? The only other team in the West on a definite upswing is Calgary, as most of the other sucking teams in the last 5 years are in the East so that is where most of the elite youth are.

  10. Romulus Apotheosis says:

    Romulus Apotheosis:
    The best part of that run of episodes (multi-season IIRC) was when George got stuck having to fake a muscular tick in his arm.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BWcGRXf4XzE

  11. Woodguy says:

    jonrmcleod:
    I just wish the Oilers’ defensemen could be more like Lloyd Braun.

    *ding*

  12. BrazilianOil says:

    Lowetide: The bottom line is this: It’s not about playing defense, it’s about NOT having the puck in your zone for one second longer than required. Real estate’s key (location) is also hockey’s key. Pass the puck, under control.

    This! 25 years ago Johan Cruyff, bring this idea to Barcelona when he start coaching the team. The best defence you can have is keep the ball/ puck. Until now, this idea remains in the team style of play.

    I know the Corsi tries to mesure the puck pocession, but i would like to know the time every team has the puck in each part of the ice. This imo, would give is a better idea of the pocession numbers.

    Sorry for the bad spelling.

  13. Bar_Qu says:

    jonrmcleod:
    I just wish the Oilers’ defensemen could be more like Lloyd Braun.

    Serenity now!

  14. oliveoilers says:

    What time is now?

    Some good blog titles from the Smiths and that miserable bugger Morrissey.

    20th would be awesome and attainable.

    But we shouldn’t use other team’s progression curves for us. Make our own.

  15. oliveoilers says:

    BrazilianOil: This! 25 years ago Johan Cruyff, bring this idea to Barcelona when he start coaching the team. The best defence you can have is keep the ball/ puck. Until now, this idea remains in the team style of play.

    I know the Corsi tries to mesure the puck pocession, but i would like to know the time every team has the puck in each part of the ice. This imo, would give is a better idea of the pocession numbers.

    Sorry for the bad spelling.

    Having the best players in the world helps, too.

  16. gd says:

    Hey LT, have you ever thought of using Seinfeld for the RE series? It might help some of us who are not the most musically informed contribute more.

    You could use characters or maybe classic phrases;

    For McDavid-“That’s gold Jerry”
    For McT on the D-“Opposite George”
    For NN:-“Hello…..Nikitin”

  17. Lois Lowe says:

    Woodguy: *ding*

    We also would have accepted ‘Dinkins’.

  18. Bar_Qu says:

    Romulus Apotheosis,

    That was a brilliant episode. The cursing kid bit set up a fantastic punchline for the episode.

  19. Bar_Qu says:

    czar,

    Good catch. Don’t know why that link broke.

  20. czar says:

    Bar_Qu,

    Cheers!

  21. Richard S.S. says:

    1) Until Chiarelli settles his Arby-signing/Decision-thingy with Schultz and decides on buyouts, guessing fewer years than Pittsburgh isn’t possible.
    2) Until the actual 23 hit the ice, Chiarelli might be busy, so any guessing is held at bay again.

    I’ve always thought that if the Oilers had average Goaltending, 10-15 or more wins might be possible. Just having average Defense might win just as many more. I won’t be surprised if the Oilers make the playoff this year, nor would I be disappointed if they didn’t. I just don’t know enough to know better.

  22. Lowetide says:

    gd:
    Hey LT, have you ever thought of using Seinfeld for the RE series? It might help some of us who are not the most musically informed contribute more.

    You could use characters or maybe classic phrases;

    For McDavid-“That’s gold Jerry”
    For McT on the D-“Opposite George”
    For NN:-“Hello…..Nikitin”

    Hilarious! I like that a lot. Steve Tambellini “Master of my Own Domain” would have been sweet.

  23. BrazilianOil says:

    oliveoilers,

    The thing is how this players became the best. As you know there is no draft on european soccer and every team has control of his junior team ( imagine the oilkings been under control so no need to fall in love with and draft again) and you can teach a stlyle of play since early ages. Messi arrived 14 years old and Iniesta, Xavi and Pique even younger.

  24. oliveoilers says:

    BrazilianOil:
    oliveoilers,

    The thing is how this players became the best. As you know there is no draft on european soccer and every team has control of his junior team ( imagine the oilkings been under control so no need to fall in love with and draft again) and you can teach a stlyle of play since early ages. Messi arrived 14 years old and Iniesta, Xavi and Pique even younger.

    But these players were heavily scouted from a very early age and VERY aggressively signed. This had the double effect of getting the best players and denying them to everyone else. In fact, teams like Barca and Man Utd actively sign youngsters they have no intention of playing. They can afford to cast their net wide.

  25. wheatnoil says:

    Taylor Hall: He’s real and he’s spectacular!
    Andrew Ference: Cotton uniforms
    Yakupov: Is he chocolate babka or a lesser babka?

  26. jonrmcleod says:

    Lowetide,

    I also like the Seinfeld idea a lot. Especially since you and I don’t seem to share the same taste in music. 🙂

  27. czar says:

    wheatnoil,

    MacTavish: Double Dip
    Lowe: Bubble Boy

  28. Adam Wu says:

    Talbot is the key, I think.

    Some complain that the D really isn’t much improved from last year, but consider:

    When we were “autopsying” last year’s disaster, the recurrent refrain was “it was goaltending”. The D was weak, but it wasn’t league worst. On the numbers for D performance isolated from goaltending, last year’s group was superior to Buffalo, Toronto, Arizona, close to Dallas, and not that much worse that Calgary’s (despite certain trolls’ pumping of their top end pairings).

    So imagine what would have been if we had kept Petry, deployed Marincin correctly, and gotten league average goaltending? I recall that people made such projections and the results were fairly reasonable.

    Now Chiarelli has essentially restored the D to that keep Petry, deploy Marincin properly state. Sekera is either equal or slightly better than Petry and he presumably wants to be here, while Marincin has been replaced by players who are arguably worse, but who fit the GM/coach’s projected system better and therefore will be more likely to be deployed optimally.

    And in Talbot he got the best available and cost effective bet for league average or superior goaltending.

    (And McDavid makes the F corps significantly stronger)

    So, as long as Talbot can avoid a Scrivens-style meltdown, we should be turning north….

  29. Lois Lowe says:

    Andrew Ference – Mendelbaum, Mendelbaum, Mendelbaum!
    Daryl Katz – Steinbrenner

  30. Pajamah says:

    Connor McDavid: He’s real…..and he’s spectacular.

    Edit: Beaten to the punch by Wheatnoil.

  31. Магия 10 says:

    gd:
    Hey LT, have you ever thought of using Seinfeld for the RE series? It might help some of us who are not the most musically informed contribute more.

    You could use characters or maybe classic phrases;

    For McDavid-“That’s gold Jerry”
    For McT on the D-“Opposite George”
    For NN:-“Hello…..Nikitin”

    Lowetide: Hilarious! I like that a lot. Steve Tambellini “Master of my Own Domain” would have been sweet.

    Simpsons episode titles would have been great in the Tambelini days.

    I’d like to think that Katz finally learned that you recruit serious execs when you commit to not interfering.

    Exxxcellllent

  32. BlueNoteNorth says:

    Eakins – soup nazi – ouch, too harsh?

    No ice time for you!

  33. John Chambers says:

    Ducey:
    Its seems trading for Big Buff has the same problems as trading for Seabrook. Buff will cost a lot – I would think Leon would have to be part of the package, givin WPG’slove of size – and then Buff would cost a lot to sign. Given he is not exactly Gary Roberts in the fitness department, you have to think the back end of the contract might wind up being a Penneresqe, syrup covered mess.

    I think there is a decent chance he will want to go UFA to maximize his last contract. Just wait a year.

    Syrup-covered contract. Ha!

    This is why I was so baffled about the vexation over the Reinhart trade.
    Young? Check
    On an ELC? Check
    A reasonable bet to play top-4 within 2-3 years? Check

    Maybe the strategy is to wait and see which club disappoints the most over the first 40 games and have picks and prospects to offer up for more veteran D with shorter terms left on their contracts.

    But with a new era of conservativism amongst NHL GMs and a few prize D heading toward free agency next July, perhaps keeping the powder dry to try and land Byfuglien, Giordano, or Seabrook on a 5-6 year contract is a realizable objective 12 months from now.

  34. wheatnoil says:

    Schultz: “I choose not to run!”

  35. wheatnoil says:

    Pajamah:
    Connor McDavid: He’s real…..and he’s spectacular.

    Edit: Beaten to the punch by Wheatnoil.

    On further thought, I think he’s real and he’s spectacular might be better suited to Eberle given the long debate of his shooting percentage and being boosted by Hall despite being a real solid (and spectacular) player in his own right.

  36. BlueNoteNorth says:

    No Byf please. Too often goes walkabout when the game is on the line.

  37. Pajamah says:

    John Chambers: Syrup-covered contract. Ha!

    This is why I was so baffled about the vexation over the Reinhart trade.
    Young? Check
    On an ELC? Check
    A reasonable bet to play top-4 within 2-3 years? Check

    Maybe the strategy is to wait and see which club disappoints the most over the first 40 games and have picks and prospects to offer up for more veteran D with shorter terms left on their contracts.

    But with a new era of conservativism amongst NHL GMs and a few prize D heading toward free agency next July, perhaps keeping the powder dry to try and land Byfuglien, Giordano, or Seabrook on a 5-6 year contract is a realizable objective 12 months from now.

    If he is Marincin replacement, then I’m all for it. I was a big Marincin fan, but Reinhart’s ceiling is much higher, and he may be able to be Marty this season. One more D, be it Ehrhoff or a trade for Spurgeon, and D becomes average or better.

  38. Pajamah says:

    wheatnoil: On further thought, I think he’s real and he’s spectacular might be better suited to Eberle given the long debate of his shooting percentage and being boosted by Hall despite being a real solid (and spectacular) player in his own right.

    Spot on. CMD is gold, Eberle has always had questions about if he is real. He’s our Joey Mullen. Nurse will be the feats of strength.

  39. OilClog says:

    BlueNoteNorth:
    Eakins – soup nazi – ouch, too harsh?

    No ice time for you!

    #wins

  40. Tokyo Oil says:

    I’m new to this group but have been reading Lowetide’s articles and the corresponding comments for the last couple months.

    The articles and the commentary here are brilliant.

    My question to the community is are we underestimating the impact that McLellan will have on this team.

    Hearing the comments from Hall and Eberle about how Todd and his staff coached the team at the world championships is a huge tell.

    You need a coach who knows how to exploit his players talent to the best of their ability. I see that happening with McLellan running the team.

    If he is able to deploy our players so they can perform at their best, can play as a team, and understand “why” they need to do what he is telling them, then I don’t think making the playoffs next year are unreasonable.

    I see a 20 point improvement over last year from our new coaching staff. If we also get a 10-15 point improvement from the players then we’re right there.

    Would hate to leave Rexall next year without making the playoffs considering the history in that building.

  41. Lowetide says:

    Tokyo: Welcome! I think we have a hard time quantifying McLellan’s impact because (save Renney) the new coach idea hasn’t worked here, and flushing Renney too soon fades his progress. I hope you’re right, but in the back of my mind there’s a voice saying ‘next year at this time, Chiarelli and McLellan will know what we know about these defensemen’ and that drives my thinking at this time.

  42. Магия 10 says:

    Lowetide:
    Talking rookies? Answer: Two.
    http://oilersnation.com/2015/7/11/how-many-rookies

    “the Nurse/Reinhart shuttle to Bakersfield may end up going back and forth carrying one or the other all season”

    Concur.

    Suspect more Reinhart first 20. Jump ball the next 40. Both the last 20.

  43. Cameron says:

    “You gotta have Hand!” – Chiarelli

    Slaps money on table “I’m out” – Nikitin

    “I have never been so repulsed by someone mentally and so attracted to them physically at the same time. It’s like my brain is facing my penis in a chess game. And I’m letting him win.”

    “You’re not letting him win. He wins ’til you’re forty.”

    “Then what?”

    “He still wins, but it’s not a blow-out.” – ….no idea who to put that on, it’s just my favourite Seinfeld quote

  44. bsmart says:

    Pete looks like George Costanza lol

  45. G Money says:

    Tokyo Oil: My question to the community is are we underestimating the impact that McLellan will have on this team.

    Yes.

    Lowetide: I think we have a hard time quantifying McLellan’s impact because (save Renney) the new coach idea hasn’t worked here, and flushing Renney too soon fades his progress. I hope you’re right, but in the back of my mind there’s a voice saying ‘next year at this time, Chiarelli and McLellan will know what we know about these defensemen’ and that drives my thinking at this time.

    I think it’s always fair to have that ‘if it didn’t work before, why would it work now’ skepticism.

    I’m not in that camp though!

    I think there are material differences with TMc, the biggest being that his body of recent work has been excellent, and his reputation as a rock solid possession-style X’s and O’s guy who can also relate to and effectively coach his players puts him head and shoulders above the rest.

    While I was publicly on board with getting TMc before he signed (that was before McDavid, it felt like a vain hope to me), I was extremely happy when he signed here. The verbal since then out of players has confirmed every positive feeling I have: Hall and Eberle falling all over themselves talking him up, and remember, this is AFTER the end of season run with Nelson, and Brent Burns saying he’d be happy to follow TMc to Edmonton.

    I mean, think about that last statement for a second. A top end player, who pretty much any team in the league would welcome with open arms – and he wants to come to Edmonton because coaching.

    I think we’ve been so beat down with rookies and question marks learning on the job, we’re forgetting how much of a change this really is.

    The parallel I draw is with the Eskimos. They didn’t change much in the way of personnel from two years ago to last year – the primary change was the coach.

    That change took them from a below .500 pretender to an elite, legitimate contender in one year. The team didn’t change, but almost every player seemed to play his or her position just that little bit better.

    I don’t expect that kind of dramatic effect this year, but I do think we’re way underplaying the effect of having someone with TMc’s experience, respect, and stature, someone who’s going to run a tight ship and a rock-solid system with no second-guessing (internal or external), from the very first day of training camp.

    I expect every player will be a few percentage points better as a result. And in a league where the difference between top and bottom is the difference between 95% and 100% effort, that adds up, it adds up fast, and it adds up big.

  46. Ben says:

    “The D was angry that day, my friends.”

  47. John Chambers says:

    Pajamah: If he is Marincin replacement, then I’m all for it. I was a big Marincin fan, but Reinhart’s ceiling is much higher, and he may be able to be Marty this season. One more D, be it Ehrhoff or a trade for Spurgeon, and D becomes average or better.

    What I like about Chiarelli is that he seems to measure both the near-term and long-term, having made bets that improve the team now without sacrificing too much of the future, both in terms of assets and cap space.

    My guess is that we see an upgrade on the blue line prior to the beginning of the season. It may be Ehrhoff or it may be Seabrook. I also think we’ll have a new top-pair defenseman on a long term contract acquired when the cost and timing is right.

    The waiting is the hardest part, but unlike Tambellini and MacT at least we know that it will get done.

  48. Numenius says:

    G Money: I don’t expect that kind of dramatic effect this year, but I do think we’re way underplaying the effect of having someone with TMc’s experience, respect, and stature, someone who’s going to run a tight ship and a rock-solid system with no second-guessing (internal or external), from the very first day of training camp.

    I totally agree.

    Possibly another comparable is Hartley for the Flames. I’d argue he’s the primary reason for their otherwise inexplicable success last year.

  49. ChiliChunk says:

    Eakins: The Moops
    Yakupov: Mr Pitt’s white socks
    Nikitin: Crazy Joe Davola
    Jultz: I don’t wanna be a pirate

  50. gd says:

    Tokyo Oil,

    I think the upgrade is hard to quantify as it’s hard to estimate how bad a coach Eakins was for this team. I remember when the 49ers hired Harbaugh to replace Singletary and Bill Simmons noted that going from incompetent to competent is worth a ton and the 49ers went from celler dwelling underachievers to Conference finalists three years in a row.

    I think we would all be thinking playoffs if we weren’t in the frigging West, especially after the one team that we should have easily past this year got gifted Hamilton.

    I think besides all of the other luck we’ve had this year, we were actually pretty lucky that MacT and Eakins were such a disaster that it was obvious to replace them. I think an interesting parellel will be with Buffalo, because I don’t think Murray is going to be good enough to get them to a cup, but he hasn’t been bad long enough to get fired.

  51. flyfish1168 says:

    A very interesting article by Matt Henderson on Seabrook. I agree with his way of thinking.

    http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog/Matt-Henderson/On-Seabrook/191/69911

  52. Pajamah says:

    John Chambers:

    The waiting is the hardest part, but unlike Tambellini and MacT at least we know that it will get done.

    Absolutely. Something to be said for a GM and hopefully now coach, who can see deficiencies and actually address them.

    I’d hoped MacT would be a good GM, but any scenario where Petry is a problem, and Nikitin is a solution should not exist.

  53. G Money says:

    Numenius: Possibly another comparable is Hartley for the Flames. I’d argue he’s the primary reason for their otherwise inexplicable success last year.

    I give Hartley major credit for one aspect of the Flames situation – to their full credit, they are an extremely hard working puck pursuit team (much moreso than what I perceived out of the Oilers most nights), and that change was very much clearly driven by Hartley.

    But the thing is, that’s where crediting that aspect of their game as the reason for success last year goes awry – they were an extremely hard working team the year before too.

    By pretty much every measurable characteristic other than sh% and to a lesser extent sv% (which was out of this world early and fell to earth midway), they were in fact the same team last year as they were two years ago. But sh% and sv% drive points more than any other factors.

    But team sh% is the variable that has less repeatability from year to year than any other. The only thing that comes close is its almost equally capricious cousin, team sv%.

    So, until someone can convince me that giving up a big lead to the other team and then coming back night after night is somehow a sustainable winning strategy for the NHL,

    a. I expect their PDO, especially sh%, to regress next year, big time
    b. which means the Flames’ success last year, like Tor and Col before them, was smoke and mirrors, and will be a one year phenomenon.

    They are of course a significantly better team this year, having added Frolik and Hamilton. But they are building off the baseline of a bottom 5 team, not a playoff bubble team. With the more random factors regressing to normal levels, just getting back to where they were last year will actually be a significant achievement IMO.

  54. hunter1909 says:

    BrazilianOil: This! 25 years ago Johan Cruyff, bring this idea to Barcelona when he start coaching the team. The best defence you can have is keep the ball/ puck. Until now, this idea remains in the team style of play.

    Reminds me of Game 6 in the 2006 SC finals. Oilers played a perfect game.

  55. hunter1909 says:

    Tokyo Oil: My question to the community is are we underestimating the impact that McLellan will have on this team.
    Hearing the comments from Hall and Eberle about how Todd and his staff coached the team at the world championships is a huge tell.
    You need a coach who knows how to exploit his players talent to the best of their ability. I see that happening with McLellan running the team.
    If he is able to deploy our players so they can perform at their best, can play as a team, and understand “why” they need to do what he is telling them, then I don’t think making the playoffs next year are unreasonable.
    I see a 20 point improvement over last year from our new coaching staff. If we also get a 10-15 point improvement from the players then we’re right there.
    Would hate to leave Rexall next year without making the playoffs considering the history in that building.

    The general Gloom should disintegrate entirely by 30 games into the next season.

    I agree, McL is going to make a ridiculous difference. Also, Lowe+ his manky mob banished from the team.

    The fans have spent a long, hard walk through the Wilderness since Sather left for NY(Yes Chris Pronger MAB 2006 etc etc).

  56. Rondo says:

    LT,

    Why haven’t the Oilers gone after Jan Hejda? Unless they think he is done or there waiting for a bigger fish after the buy-out. Or maybe he does not want a 1 year deal.

    If Hejda is still viable he would be an excellent mentor to the young D-men and also can play in the tough zone starts. A top 4 defensive d-man.

  57. hunter1909 says:

    G Money: So, until someone can convince me that giving up a big lead to the other team and then coming back night after night is somehow a sustainable winning strategy for the NHL,

    Teams usually play harder when they have the lead. I wouldn’t be surprised if Dallas Eakin’s thinks it’s a good idea to play from behind, after his tenure under the Lowe+MacT Aegis.

  58. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    For Howson… “Hello… Newman”

  59. HeatTreaterJoe says:

    Actually, maybe Seinfeld has the perfect quote for the entire re-build.

    “Where am I? Is this a dream? What in God’s name is going on here?”
    – Elaine, who just wants to sit and eat, in “The Chinese Restaurant”

  60. Tokyo Oil says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks for the welcome. I agree that the biggest unknown is our defence next year and how they will perform. Goaltending should also be included in this conversation.

    While I think Renney did a reasonable job under the circumstances, as did Krueger, in my opinion these guys are not at the same level as McLellan when you consider his coaching resume.

    And he is coming in to coach the “young guns” (excluding McDavid, Nurse, Draisaitl) when they are not young anymore. Seeing the impact Nelson had in his short time behind the bench was encouraging. Watching the Oil under Eakins was beyond frustrating.

    I believe we are going to be pleasantly surprised when we watch how the Oilers play under McLellan and his staff.

  61. Mr. D. says:

    Adam Wu:
    Talbot is the key, I think.

    Some complain that the D really isn’t much improved from last year, but consider:

    When we were “autopsying” last year’s disaster, the recurrent refrain was “it was goaltending”. The D was weak, but it wasn’t league worst. On the numbers for D performance isolated from goaltending, last year’s group was superior to Buffalo, Toronto, Arizona, close to Dallas, and not that much worse that Calgary’s (despite certain trolls’ pumping of their top end pairings).

    So imagine what would have been if we had kept Petry, deployed Marincin correctly, and gotten league average goaltending? I recall that people made such projections and the results were fairly reasonable.

    Now Chiarelli has essentially restored the D to that keep Petry, deploy Marincin properly state. Sekera is either equal or slightly better than Petry and he presumably wants to be here, while Marincin has been replaced by players who are arguably worse, but who fit the GM/coach’s projected system better and therefore will be more likely to be deployed optimally.

    And in Talbot he got the best available and cost effective bet for league average or superior goaltending.

    (And McDavid makes the F corps significantly stronger)

    So, as long as Talbot can avoid a Scrivens-style meltdown, we should be turning north….

    How are the 2 D worse?
    How were Marincin point totals?
    Could he box players out on front to give his goalie vision?
    Could he break pucks away effectively in the defensive corners and make a good first pass.
    Did he incite a bit of fear for anybody coming across the middle?
    Could he crunch wingers on a breakout thus creating turnovers?

  62. flyfish1168 says:

    G Money: I give Hartley major credit for one aspect of the Flames situation – to their full credit, they are an extremely hard working puck pursuit team (much moreso than what I perceived out of the Oilers most nights), and that change was very much clearly driven by Hartley.

    But the thing is, that’s where crediting that aspect of their game as the reason for success last year goes awry – they were an extremely hard working team the year before too.

    By pretty much every measurable characteristic other than sh% and to a lesser extent sv% (which was out of this world early and fell to earth midway), they were in fact the same team last year as they were two years ago.But sh% and sv% drive points more than any other factors.

    But team sh% is the variable that has less repeatability from year to year than any other.The only thing that comes close is its almost equally capricious cousin, team sv%.

    So, until someone can convince me that giving up a big lead to the other team and then coming back night after night is somehow a sustainable winning strategy for the NHL,

    a. I expect their PDO, especially sh%, to regress next year, big time
    b. which means the Flames’ success last year, like Tor and Col before them, was smoke and mirrors, and will be a one year phenomenon.

    They are of course a significantly better team this year, having added Frolik and Hamilton.But they are building off the baseline of a bottom 5 team, not a playoff bubble team.With the more random factors regressing to normal levels, just getting back to where they were last year will actually be a significant achievement IMO.

    All excellent points G$. I also like to add in that Gio as a captain is a significant upgrade to Iggy or our own.

  63. Washingtron says:

    “Real estate’s key (location) is also hockey’s key. ”

    Couldn’t remember the other two keys to Real Estate?

  64. kevin says:

    flyfish1168: I also like to add in that Gio as a captain is a significant upgrade to Iggy or our own.

    How important is having a great captain?
    Has anyone ever spent time trying to quantify?

  65. Woogie63 says:

    Klef/Nurse/Reinhart/Shultz/Sekera/Fayne will be a great defense when;

    Oiler forwards forecheck one man
    Oiler forwards finish checks below their face off dot
    Oiler forwards are committed to plugging up the netrual zone
    Oiler forward stop flying out of their zone before the puck

    McL will need to get team defense top of mind for some pretty commited stick wavers

  66. square_wheels says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Lowetide,

    I also like the Seinfeld idea a lot. Especially since you and I don’t seem to share the same taste in music.

    I’d have to go with ” but I don’t want to be a pirate” for Niki Nik. He won’t wear the puffy shirt. Or we could go ” George sleeping under the desk”
    Gazdic would be Little Jerry Seinfeld/kramers fighting cock
    Festivus Miracle – no question that’s CMD

  67. stush18 says:

    I’m actually looking forward to what the flames do next year. I think the battle of Alberta is going to be back and stronger than ever.

    Flames made a good decision in getting frolik, and I heard they grabbed some Hamilton guy?

    High flying offense versus all star defense.

  68. hunter1909 says:

    kevin: How important is having a great captain?
    Has anyone ever spent time trying to quantify?

    No, otherwise offering thecaptainethanmoreau + Shawn Horcoff + TCAF as evidence of the effect of County Bumpkins selecting mirror images of themselves to captain an NHL team.

  69. hunter1909 says:

    Washingtron: Couldn’t remember the other two keys to Real Estate?

    2 – Have more buyers than sellers.

    3 – Don’t live anywhere you can’t afford.

  70. Cameron says:

    G Money:

    By pretty much every measurable characteristic other than sh% and to a lesser extent sv% (which was out of this world early and fell to earth midway), they were in fact the same team last year as they were two years ago.But sh% and sv% drive points more than any other factors.

    But team sh% is the variable that has less repeatability from year to year than any other.The only thing that comes close is its almost equally capricious cousin, team sv%.

    a. I expect their PDO, especially sh%, to regress next year, big time

    I can understand why people would draw these conclusions based on the big picture stats, but if you drill in to what was the cause of the Flames spike in sh% you’ll see that it was all derived from three players; Hudler, Monahan, and Gaudreau. In Hudler’s case he has a high sh% over his career, so it appears to be sustainable. Monahan had a high sh% in his rookie year, and while everyone expected it to crater in year two, it didn’t. Gaudreau is the wild card because we only have his one year to go off of, but given his skillset I don’t think anyone would be surprised if he maintains as a better than average sniper sh% wise. Take those three guys off the team and Cgy’s PDO was well under 100.

    And then there is the question of ‘regression’ in PDO. Prior to last year the Flames had three or four seasons in a row with brutal PDO #s, so depending on the sample size you are looking at it may welll be regressing to the mean by staying unusually high for a few seasons.

  71. Mr DeBakey says:

    kevin: How important is having a great captain?
    Has anyone ever spent time trying to quantify?

    My Dog, its importance has gotta be as close to zero as could be imagined.

    The Captain has to face the media everyday, so its important to them.
    But to winning and stuff? Nah.

  72. thurmtim says:

    Oilers playoff hpes… Spongeworthy?

  73. Soup Fascist says:

    Just a stab in the dark, but when Eakins sent his resume to MacT was Art Vandelay one of the references he provided?

  74. Cruiser says:

    I can see this season being similar to the Ralph Kruger season. Being in the hunt in March maybe not making it to the playoffs but close don’t see us talking about the draft in November like years past 😉

    Love the idea of the RE: as Seinfeld episodes! If there was one (not sure how to make it work) but the Mr.Pitt and the 3D artwork – The Gymnast. Chia as Mr.Pitt and the 3D artwork is MacT seeing Justin Schultz has Norris Trophy ability. Chia just can’t see it!

  75. G Money says:

    Cameron,

    I have dug into it, and no, it wasn’t just those three guys. Quite a number of players had a bloated sh% relative to their previous year and their career averages (e.g. Bouma, Stajan, Jooris, Granlund, and on D, Wideman, and Giordano). Hudler’s just stood out the least because it was less bloated than most.

    The one argument that you could try to make that that this will somehow sustain, and that Calgary as a team will remain a two standard deviation outlier for sh% (which is what they were), is by trying to argue that it was some sort of ‘quick strike’ system that Hartley implemented that fed off turnovers and odd man rushes (and a few have made that argument).

    The games that I watched (I live in Calgary so I’m subjected to Flames games more often than I’d like to be), I didn’t see that. If you’re playing a quick strike system that supposedly takes advantage of a teams poor possession, you should see that throughout the games. Not a team getting its head kicked in early, by chances and by shots AND by goals, and then cuing some sort of miracle comeback night after night (by goals but not by chances).

    That’s the funny thing about miracles. They don’t have sustain. The goals that Calgary scored, especially when down, didn’t actually look that dangerous or planned to my eye. They just went in.

    You can argue that they will continue to next year, but I’d be very very surprised if thats the case.

    Calgary’s one-and-done year, like COL and TOR, is not at all unusual. Sustaining it when your shots and chances say you’re getting your head kicked in night after night is whats unusual.

    No, let me rephrase that in more definitive terms:

    – having a season when your shots and chances say you’re getting your head kicked in night after night but you win anyway is common. It happens to a couple of teams every year. Think of it this way: if shot metrics are 90% predictive (and thats overstating it), you should expect that every year at least .1 x 30 = 3 teams will have records way out of keeping with their shot metrics.

    So expect a couple of teams every single year to way overperform, and another couple to way underperform, their shot metrics. Thats the norm, its to be expected – and without repeatability, its a random phenomenon.

    There are two exceptions to this rule, by the way. Anaheim has a several year history now of having a record better than their mediocre shot metrics indicate. Conversely, NJD have an even longer history of having a record considerably worse than their shot metrics indicate. Both have been deconstructed, the first relates to both style and consistent goaltending, the second to a low event style that has been demonstrated to have lower correlation to success. (That is to say, there is work that shows that regardless of whether your shot rates are good or bad, high event rates have a better indicator of success than lower event rates. It’s a minor distinction, but appears to be real).

    Neither template applies to the Flames.

    – Conversely, having sustain on that basis (where your shot metrics are shit but your record is good two or more years in a row) very rarely happens. Because you’re betting that you’re going to be the lucky 10% the next year too.

    The chances of that happening are 10% x 10% = 1%. It can happen, but its a dumb way to bet.

    But go ahead and believe that being a two standard deviation outlier is a sustainable thing! Go right ahead.

  76. Connor'sreal says:

    Justin Schultz would have to be the Kenny Rogers episode.

    Big orange glow, drives everyone crazy.

  77. G Money says:

    square_wheels: I’d have to go with ” but I don’t want to be a pirate” for Niki Nik. He won’t wear the puffy shirt.

    The way I hear it, with Nikitin it wasn’t the shirt that was puffy!

  78. Hammers says:

    Maybe its time we fans looked at the real picture . It took Katz 10 years to realize what both a good President , Management team and Coaching group could do especially after lucking into a generational talent . We had Lowe scrambling for years , to many bosses , no money that he didn’t have a chance and he topped that off by hiring Tambo , for Katz, someone Vancouver overlooked numerous times who proceeded in going through coaches and potentially some decent players . Lander , Magnus , Dubnyk , Hartkinen, to name a few . We now get McDavid and everyone hopes the cup shows back up here in Edmonton .It took Pitt / Crosby a few years to get a cup and most now say allow 5 years . Chia said he will build with a younger group and so far so good but overpaying for a Seabrook won’t help . Young players with a coaching team should get us there but it will take 3-5 years if they don’t do anything stupid . Keep Ebs , Hall , Hopkins , Yak , Nurse, Schultz, Klefbom , Leon , Pouliot ,, Reinhart . 6F ,4D , add in the Landers, Simpson , Chase Yakimov and other interchangeable players and we have a team in 2-3 years led by McDavid .Good Luck Oilers .

  79. One-Timer says:

    kevin: How important is having a great captain?
    Has anyone ever spent time trying to quantify?

    It all depends on Eyeglow/60.
    Quantify that!

  80. RexLibris says:

    G Money,

    Re: sustainability and repeatability for the Flames’ possession metrics as it relates to the additions of Hamilton and Frolik.

    The concensus belief right now is that the Flames’ results have a high likelihood of conforming closer to the result expected of their poor possession metrics but that the addition of two players who have a positive possession record may help insulate against a true cratering.

    Because I’m a pretty visual person, I imagine this like a line graph where there are two opposing forces, the strength of which we have yet to determine. Let’s call them gravity and buoyancy. The Flames’ possession record relative to outcome is represented by the line we’ll call gravity, that is to say, it appears due to experience a downward trend this coming season.

    The addition of Hamilton and Frolik represent the line we’ll call buoyancy, which is to say they are players who could help the Flames in the department of possession, and thus scoring chances for.

    So as I see it, we’ve plotted the graph, assigned representative values and are now waiting for the data to come in. Until then all we can say is that the weight of variables influencing gravity thus far greatly outweigh those influencing buoyancy (repeatability of sh% and sv%, standard deviations, playing style, etc).

    So, we wait.

    One could argue the reverse using the same principle for the Oilers. Arguably our terms of buoyancy here outweighs gravity because of roster additions and regression to the norm in sh% and sv% as well as the difficult-to-quantify factor of coaching.

    In either case, the data needs to come in before we can attribute success or failure in any department, but it should prove very interesting once it does.

  81. Wonder Llama says:

    Connor’sreal:
    Justin Schultz would have to be the Kenny Rogers episode.

    Big orange glow, drives everyone crazy.

    Bad Jultzing. Mess you up.

  82. G Money says:

    RexLibris,

    That’s exactly right. In a nutshell:

    – Expecting the Flames to radically outperform their poor shot metrics, like they did last year, is not reasonable

    – Their performance, as it is with every team, will be related to their shot metrics, but the nature of the relation will be an unpredictable conglomeration of incidence, coincidence, and happenstance. It will happen for a reason, which just don’t know what will happen or what those reasons will be. But underperformance is just as reasonable an expectation a priori as overperformance. That’s how these things work.

    – So the most reasonable expectation on a forward look basis is to expect that, like most teams, they will perform more or less inline with their shot metrics.

    – Their shot metrics were shit last year, so in the absence of any change in their underlying shot metrics, expecting them to revert to being a shitty team next year is the ‘safe’ bet

    – Unfortunately, as an Oiler fan, they have taken steps in adding Frolik and Hamilton, they are a better team, and we should expect to see improved shot metrics. That’s what will drive their results next year, much moreso than nearly random variation in sh/sv.

    – But, as I’ve said in the past, that improvement is predicated on their baseline as a shitty bottom 5 team, not a playoff bubble team. That aspect of overperformance won’t sustain.

  83. Bag of Pucks says:

    Of course they had the players, but what a lot of people forgot about the Oiler dynasty is how innovative Sather & Muckler were at system play. One of Sather’s great legacies was his assimilation of European hockey philosophies into the NA training and system methods. This hybrid approach started under Fred Shero and continued with the WHA Jets, but Sather’s teams were the first with the talent to truly revolutionize the game.

    I would love to see a philosophy of similar innovation continue with McLellan. If we consider Dellow’s analysis of San Jose’s breakout and pp systems, it would appear TMac is a coach with the chops to be hockey’s next ‘genius.’

    At its best, the “Oilers Hockey” brand means not just winning, but winning with style. Playing with pace, coordinated breakouts with crisp passing and set pieces; 5 men units pressuring the puck on D and possessing it on O.

    This team’s legacy is more akin to the ‘the flying Frenchmen’ than the ‘the left wing lock.’ Thank Gord!

    Btw, Gregor suggested any ceremony honouring Slats must be done in the final year of Northlands/Rexall. Couldn’t agree more. Let’s give ‘The Architect’ a proper goodbye and thank you.

  84. innercitysmytty says:

    G Money,

    Agree 100% with this! Put another way to Cameron (assuming based on shot metrics that Calgary is a bottom 5 team on paper last year), had the Oilers added only Hamilton and Frolik would we be talking about a playoff team this year? Not likely, so why is it assumed that Calgary is all of a sudden a contender?

  85. Cameron says:

    G Money,

    Beloch at Flames Nation addressed just this issue earlier this year;

    http://flamesnation.ca/2015/3/13/is-the-flames-shooting-percentage-sustainable

  86. John Chambers says:

    Woogie63:
    Klef/Nurse/Reinhart/Shultz/Sekera/Fayne will be a great defense when;

    Oiler forwards forecheck one man
    Oiler forwards finish checks below their face off dot
    Oiler forwards are committed to plugging up the netrual zone
    Oiler forward stop flying out of their zone before the puck

    McL will need to get team defense top of mind for some pretty commited stick wavers

    This is very important and not mentioned often enough.

    Team defense will improve the underlying numbers of our individual defensemen. I’m not sure Justin Schulz ever materializes into a top-3 blueliner, but my guess is that we feel a lot better about him in January than we do in July.

    At least he’ll cause fewer “serenity now!” moments than we’ve become accustomed to.

  87. Bag of Pucks says:

    Btw, it sounds completely counter intuitive but one thing I admire about Sather is the intestinal fortitude it took to trade Gretzky when every fibre of his being knew it was the hockey equivalent of pulling the trigger in Russian Roulette with one chamber left.

    Love the story he and Gretzky tell where they had one last moment before the trade was announced where Sather told him, “it’s not too late you know, we can pull out of this thing now,” and Gretzky, soured on the situation by Pocklington secretly shopping him essentially said, “no, it is too late to turn back now.”

    That day had to kill Sather inside. No one knew better than him what that team could’ve accomplished had they held it together.

    There’s a belief I’ve been trying to impart to my youngest son in recent months and based on recent actions I think it’s finally starting to take. “Leadership isn’t doing what’s popular. It’s doing what’s right.” These are the toughest lessons.

  88. One-Timer says:

    Follow-up to BrazilOil’s comments on puck control:

    Has anyone made any correlations between currently standard stats on possession (corsi, fenwick) and O-zone entries?

    Just being visual here, but I always feel that the team with more/better controlled entries into their opponent’s d-zone tends to dominate in all kinds of ways. In addition to a strong attack, it suggests good neutral zone play and efficient clearing of their own d-zone.

    How strong of an indicator is it?

  89. v4ance says:

    I ran across these articles a few days back but was reminded of them when I read Souray’s post on the same site.

    From Shattenkirk on great defencemen and the skills they possesses:

    http://www.theplayerstribune.com/elite-defensemen-101-kevin-shattenkirk-nhl/
    Lidstrom, Doughty, Weber, Suter, and Keith

    http://www.theplayerstribune.com/elite-defensemen-101-part-2/
    Subban, Karlsson, Letang, and Pietrangelo

    And from Logan Couture, elite centers:
    http://www.theplayerstribune.com/best-centers-in-the-nhl/
    Crosby, Toews, Kopitar, Datsyuk, Getzlaf, and Henrik Sedin.

    Lots of video clips to illistrate the points.

  90. v4ance says:

    One-Timer,

    Very strong. Controlled entries result in shots a much larger majority of the time compared to dump ins. I can’t remember the exact figures but Broadstreet Hockey (Philly fansite) and Eric T did great work on tracking zone entries and corsi results.

    EDIT:
    Work with zone exits from the D zone showed dump outs resulted in more shots AGAINST the clearing team, again by a large margin, over successfully carrying or passing the puck out with control.

    TL;DR
    Possess the puck into Ozone or out of Dzone under control results in more corsi for the controlling team by a LARGE margin. Dump-ins mean possession and more shots by the other team.

  91. Bag of Pucks says:

    Slightly off topic. Genie Bouchard. I would totally wreck that.

  92. "Steve Smith" says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Slightly off topic. Genie Bouchard. I would totally wreck that.

    Thank you for that valuable contribution to this blog’s discourse. I look forward to reading further insights from you in the future.

  93. Bag of Pucks says:

    “Steve Smith”: Thank you for that valuable contribution to this blog’s discourse.I look forward to reading further insights from you in the future.

    yw. Btw, I’m considering a thesis on male sexuality vs the mannequin. Premise being that the mannequin is often the first fully nude depiction of the female form witnessed by male children thus forming lifelong associations of sexuality, image and unattainability in the male psyche.

    One of the core focus studies is an exercise whereby men are shown random images of women and instructed to press a buzzer immediately if they’d like to have sex with the woman shown. Unsurprisingly, the interspersed images of mannequins get a lot of ‘buzz.’

  94. striatic says:

    Ben Scrivens: “I was in the pool!”

  95. Marc says:

    Lowetide,

    In your last post you said one would really have to work to convince you that it’s wise to under draft out of the Ontario league. Here goes.

    Western Canada is the richest source of hockey players in the world. There are roughly the same number of active NHL players from BC, Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba (200 – source: http://tinyurl.com/pgrfwew) as there are from Russia, Sweden, Finland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia combined (199 – source: http://tinyurl.com/o9o2z8c). And though Ontario has 2.5M more people than the four Western provinces, it has only produced 10 more active NHL players than Western Canada has.

    The reason for this is probably higher youth participation rates of hockey, especially in the Prairies (source: http://tinyurl.com/pe7ocmp), which make the pool of young hockey players in Western Canada roughly the same size as that in Ontario, despite the lower population.

    If the pool of hockey players in the West is the same size as in Ontario, and the success rate ie. NHL players produced is roughly the same, then it stands to reason that roughly the same number of kids should be drafted out of Ontario major junior as Western major junior. The fact that more kids are being drafted out of the OHL than out of the NHL in spite of these numbers suggests that NHL teams are over drafting the OHL and under drafting the WHL.

    It’s easy to understand why that might happen. Eastern teams play multiple games in Toronto, Ottawa and Buffalo, so it’s relatively easy for their management to make a side trip to check out an OHL prospect while they are there. WHL teams are much more spread out geographically so it’s more difficult for NHL management to check out players in Moose Jaw or Prince Albert or Kelowna when they are on their Western Canadian trips. On draft day, it’s not surprising that teams are opting for players they’ve seen a bit more, leading to more OHL kids getting picked.

    More OHL kids getting picked is not leading to substantially more OHL kids making the NHL than kids from the WHL. That suggests that overdrafting the OHL is NOT producing value for teams. The smarter bet is to overdraft the pool of talent that the numbers suggest is being slightly overlooked by NHL teams – Western Canada.

  96. Woodguy says:

    Cameron,

    the cause of the Flames spike in sh% you’ll see that it was all derived from three players; Hudler, Monahan, and Gaudreau.

    Hudler shot 19.1%, career 15.1% – should fall back
    WIdeman shot 8.7%, career 6.3% – should fall back
    Brodie shot 8.3%, career 5.8% – should fall back
    Bouman shot 15.4%, career 10% – should fall back (if he plays for them)

    Jooris shot 13.5% as a rookie – who knows (if he plays for them)

    It was more than the 3 you mentioned. (I included Hudler because he was so far about his norm even though you mentioned him)

  97. cadooo says:

    Amazing what proper development will do.
    Looking at Justin Braun’s WOWY number’s in that 11/12 season are fantastic. Possibly due to sheltered minutes that a rookie D should be getting.
    http://hockeyviz.com/img/player/wowy/1112/S.J/wowy-1112-S.J-Defense%20-%20JUSTIN%20BRAUN-shots.png

    Braun and Vlasic have both had >50 CF% since 11/12. Since 11/12 only one Oiler has had a >50% season and that was J. Schultz last year. San Jose has had very few Defensemen that have had <50% corsi since 11/12.

    The Summer of Peter!
    Here's what happens when Chia leaves Lowe and MacT at Kingsway alone.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GQ1J0UNQwI0

  98. RexLibris says:

    G Money,

    Well, I’m glad to see we finally agree on something.

    😉

    I started paying close attention to the Flames back in ’08. The confluence of Iginla, Regehr, Kiprusoff all at-peak with Sutter throwing picks overboard like ballast was intriguing and everything that has happened since has been entertaining, to say the least.

    I still believe that they have added enough talent to race back to the middle of the pack and now it remains to be seen if they can overcome the mediocrity hurdle.

  99. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    If we see even one picture of him this summer he better look like a Russian cast member of Magic Mike. Err, umm, that’s what my wife says he should look like.

    BTW you see the double dead bodies in Valley Ridge news this am ?

  100. 10W30 says:

    Marincin wasn’t sponge worthy and Mcdavid is serenity now!

  101. One-Timer says:

    v4ance:
    One-Timer,

    Very strong.Controlled entries result in shots a much larger majority of the time compared to dump ins.I can’t remember the exact figures but Broadstreet Hockey (Philly fansite) and Eric T did great work on tracking zone entries and corsi results.

    EDIT:
    Work with zone exits from the D zone showed dump outs resulted in more shots AGAINST the clearing team, again by a large margin, over successfullycarrying or passing the puck out with control.

    TL;DR
    Possess the puck into Ozone or out of Dzone under control results in more corsi for the controlling team by a LARGE margin.Dump-ins mean possession and more shots by the other team.

    That is awesome – thanks.

    Now I understand how CMFD is going to trash the league! He crosses the neutral zone in about 2 seconds with full puck control. And if Jultz can just start hitting him tape-to-tape in stride… look out. (I imagine that’s something TMc is going to want to see.)

  102. RexLibris says:

    Woodguy:
    Cameron,

    the cause of the Flames spike in sh% you’ll see that it was all derived from three players; Hudler, Monahan, and Gaudreau.

    Hudler shot 19.1%, career 15.1% – should fall back
    WIdeman shot 8.7%, career 6.3% – should fall back
    Brodie shot 8.3%, career 5.8% – should fall back
    Bouman shot 15.4%, career 10% – should fall back (if he plays for them)

    Jooris shot 13.5% as a rookie – who knows (if he plays for them)

    It was more than the 3 you mentioned. (I included Hudler because he was so far about his norm even though you mentioned him)

    This has me wondering what Yakupov’s sh% will be this year.

    I don’t think we have good data on him in this regard.

  103. bendelson says:

    Bag of Pucks:
    Slightly off topic. Genie Bouchard. I would totally wreck that.

    Suggestion: Turn off Rochelle Rochelle and go for a nice long walk.

  104. Woodguy says:

    RexLibris: This has me wondering what Yakupov’s sh% will be this year.

    I don’t think we have good data on him in this regard.

    I’m worrying more about his shot volume.

    Elite scorers shoot a lot.

    1 Alex.Ovechkin 395
    2 Rick.Nash 303
    3 Max.Pacioretty 302
    4 Erik.Karlsson 292
    5 Tyler.Seguin 280
    6 Phil.Kessel 280
    7 John.Tavares 278
    8 Claude.Giroux 277
    9 Steven.Stamkos 268
    10 Radim.Vrbata 267
    11 Logan.Couture 264
    12 Oliver.Ekman-Larsson 264
    13 Vladimir.Tarasenko 263
    14 Joe.Pavelski 261
    15 Zach.Parise 259

    76. Nail.Yakupov 191

    Also, freaking Karlsson 4th in the NHL in shots as a Dman.

    Crazy.

  105. blainer says:

    Woodguy: I’m worrying more about his shot volume.

    Elite scorers shoot a lot.

    1 Alex.Ovechkin395
    2 Rick.Nash303
    3 Max.Pacioretty302
    4 Erik.Karlsson292
    5 Tyler.Seguin280
    6 Phil.Kessel280
    7 John.Tavares278
    8 Claude.Giroux277
    9 Steven.Stamkos268
    10 Radim.Vrbata267
    11 Logan.Couture264
    12 Oliver.Ekman-Larsson264
    13 Vladimir.Tarasenko263
    14 Joe.Pavelski261
    15 Zach.Parise259

    76. Nail.Yakupov191

    Also, freaking Karlsson 4th in the NHL in shots as a Dman.

    Crazy.

    Yes but yak had another 191 shots that went wide.. Wait a minute.. did I just pick up for Yak ? lol.. that is not like me at all..

  106. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    I just posted a comment at maximal silliness that’s not showing up.

    Upon re-submitting I’m told “comment suppressed, looks like you already said that.”

    There were just three image links, a few Unicode characters, and no overtly blue language.

  107. G Money says:

    Bootstrap Effexor: and no overtly blue language.

    Well, there you go.

    Get with the fuckin’ program or you’ll be suppressed.

  108. G Money says:

    square_wheels: BTW you see the double dead bodies in Valley Ridge news this am ?

    Wow, nope, was out helping the kids with a lemonade stand, so hadn’t seen that til now. Yikes.

  109. Lowetide says:

    Even more frustrating, there’s nothing in the hopper to publish from Bootstrap. Sad fiddle.

  110. G Money says:

    Cameron:
    G Money,

    Beloch at Flames Nation addressed just this issue earlier this year;

    http://flamesnation.ca/2015/3/13/is-the-flames-shooting-percentage-sustainable

    Yup, that’s been a fairly typical “pro” analysis. I don’t necessarily disagree with it – in the sense that, no matter how much you torture the numbers, there isn’t a single analysis that doesn’t clearly indicate that last year was a “best of all possible worlds” year, and therefore that the Flames will step backwards next year in terms of number of goals scored.

    It’s just a question of how much.

    What should be equally worrisome to you as a Flames fan is also to what extent the against side of the ledger normalizes.

    Here’s the net shot attempts for the players you mentioned:

    Monahan -212
    Gaudreau -152
    Hudler -137

    Additionally, #1D Mark Giordano was -67, and #1D TJ Brodie was -265.

    To put that in perspective, Edmonton’s top line players were at +19 (Eberle), +8 (Hall), and -6 (Nuge) – pretty much where you’d expect good players on a bad team to be. For defenders, Schultz was +16, Klefbom -4, and Petry -49.

    Those negative numbers hold even when looking at ‘behind’ situations – in other words, the idea that the Flames comebacks were because they somehow closed the gap when behind because of fitness or some such is not true. They sucked when ahead, they sucked when it was tied, and they sucked when they were behind.

    Yet they managed to score and avoid getting scored on in each case at a rate that was well beyond what would be reasonably projected given the old “getting their heads kicked in every night”, and well beyond what they’ve ever done before.

    So when we talk about shot metrics reverting next year, there are two things you should expect to see:

    – Sh% will regress. The Flames will score fewer goals
    – Sv% will regress. (And I don’t necessarily mean just recorded sv%, but the effective sv% based on shot attempts). The opposition will score more goals.

    That both things fell so far in favour of the Flames last year, in the same year, is what made last year a “lightning in a bottle” year for the team.

    It happens.

    But what also happens is that you should expect a major realignment next year of the results with the shot metrics.

    It will happen.

    Really the only questions in my mind are how much, and how much the new guys will offset that. As I said, and I’ll stick with this, if the Flames can even achieve next year what they achieved last year points-wise, it will be a VERY good result for them.

  111. godot10 says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris,

    – Unfortunately, as an Oiler fan, they have taken steps in adding Frolik and Hamilton, they are a better team, and we should expect to see improved shot metrics.That’s what will drive their results next year, much moreso than nearly random variation in sh/sv.

    The Flames will be adding Frolik, Hamilton, Bennett, and a healthy Giordano. Over 20% of the skaters. Those two D will be their #1 and #2 D, and those two forwards will likely play in their top six.

  112. Cameron says:

    G Money,

    Woodguy,

    A couple of things;

    A. I don’t think Jooris played significant enough minutes to swing things one way or another, and I concur he is highly unlikely to ever shoot that well again.

    B. Hudreaunahan could offset a drop in sh% with an increase in shots – the likely rssult of an increase in their roles and icetime. As a line they weren’t put together till halfway through the season, whereas they are likely locked in from the word go this year.

    C. Wideman’s season bordered on sorcerous, especially after Gio went down. It’s an open question as to whether he will even be with the team moving fwd as; the presence of Hamilton, Wideman’s contract $, and his sparkly counting stats, make him a prime candidate to be moved.

    D. Flames are likely to be a much improved possession team next year with Hamilton, Frolik, and Bennett arriving, and with expected growth from Monahan and Johnny G.

    E. I’m expecting roughly similar results standings wise, but with much superior corgis to last year (especially if Gio can stay healthy).

  113. Магия 10 says:

    Bootstrap Effexor: “comment suppressed, looks like you already said that.”

    Wait a minute. That message is only supposed to occur when DSF provides a random stat for a Flames player.

  114. G Money says:

    Cameron,

    LOL. So after all that, we’re not really disagreeing much, if at all.

    Two points I’d make in that regard, though, curious to see if you agree:
    – I expect Johnny G to have a typical sophomore year. Once people know who you are, it doesn’t get easier.
    – I really like Bennett as a player, but he plays Hall’s style and has RNH’s physique. Durability would be the big concern (which is why I was, and still am, glad the Oilers took Draisaitl). Just like with Hall, but x2. Early results (he got beat up pretty good pretty soon) certainly didn’t sway my opinion on that.

  115. Pouzar says:

    Jultz: “I’m not in the mood.”

  116. Numenius says:

    Cameron: C. Wideman’s season bordered on sorcerous, especially after Gio went down.

    You’re not kidding. His Corsi+/- was -418, Sh+/- -154, and yet he was a plus player at +6.

    He must have sold his soul to make that happen.

    By contrast, Gio was C+/- -64, Sh+/- -36 and +3.

  117. Cameron says:

    G Money:
    Cameron,

    LOL.So after all that, we’re not really disagreeing much, if at all.

    Two points I’d make in that regard, though, curious to see if you agree:
    – I expect Johnny G to have a typical sophomore year.Once people know who you are, it doesn’t get easier.
    – I really like Bennett as a player, but he plays Hall’s style and has RNH’s physique.Durability would be the big concern (which is why I was, and still am, glad the Oilers took Draisaitl).Just like with Hall, but x2.Early results (he got beat up pretty good pretty soon) certainly didn’t sway my opinion on that.

    – Monahan improved markedly from year1->2, despite lack of shelter and an increase in qualcomp. I think Johnny G is going to be exceptional in the same way (but I am obviously very biased)

    – I preferred Bennett to Drai, and with his shoulder now repaired and healed, I have him pencilled in for the Calder, ahead of some other more highly touted candidates. Name escapes me for the moment, but it’ll come to me.

  118. G Money says:

    Cameron,

    Ha, thanks for the laughs! Always good to know fans of other teams are just as delusional about their teams as we are about ours.

  119. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    Lowetide: Effex

    Thanks to Lazarus, we can try again. On this pass, one body part at a time.

    ——

    Head and torso failed.

    ——

    Scalp only attempt.

    ——

    Tokyo Oil:
    My question to the community is are we underestimating the impact that McLellan will have on this team.

  120. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    Eyebrow to mustache failed.

    ——

    Eyebrow to mustache with href plucked.

    ——

    1) as a symbol of the new competence?
    2) as a symbol of the new competence, with a discrete purge betraying our carefully held, top-secret magic beans?
    3) as actual competence
    3a) relative to other teams in the NHL?
    3b) relative to other NHL teams?
    3c) relative to other perennially almost-successful NHL teams?
    3d) relative to other actually successful NHL teams?
    4) as competence on our own terms
    4a) relative to previous management three decades removed?
    4b) relative to previous management one decade removed?
    4c) relative to previous management a long siesta removed?
    4d) relative to previous management three fortnights removed?

  121. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    Maybe that was the problem somehow.

    ——

    Mustache to toe hairs.

    ——

    I have mixed feelings about the man in the grainy picture.

    For one thing, he has yet to fully digest that the power train was configured as front-wheel drive.

    For another thing, one worries that his welding rod was procured at the same Value Village Emporium where he evidently obtained his outerwear.

    Somewhere in the West Edmonton Mall, there’s a Lego-palette display map with option 3c flagged “Obi Wan was here”.

    ——

    Today’s “bonus” balance picture.

    For safety purposes, the six-kitten (that is the Germanic plural for “kit” is it not?) is activated by twisting both heels inward on the rear pegs.

    The Dungeons and Dragbikes owner’s manual continues:

    For neophytes who are not accredited medalists in the manhole-cover clean-and-jerk discus throw[*], it is also advised to first wrap spinderella spell-casters around the robin redbreast man-capstans before engaging the hind-peg heel click—the waxy promenade behind the two chrome-plated “feed me” Swartzennipples providing the best combination of comfort, security, and directional resignation.

    [*] Our hearts go out to the promising young woman who assured us that as she had recently landed a triple-triple for Skate Canada, she could certainly handle the bars.

    ——

    Bonus footnote-footnote:

    [**] 97 bars = 1400 psi

    ——

    Vixen also (German Füchsin : little female of the Fuchs/Fox) is of Saxon origin but this time the “-en” is not the mark of plural.

    So it has two uses, at least.

  122. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    The oddest thing in my markup was the image name ending with a “-” character before the “.jpeg” file extension.

  123. square_wheels says:

    G Money,

    You drink all the lemonade with a shot of “dads special Cuban stuff ” in each cup ?

    I’ve been tempted to ride over to COP and watch the baby Flamers but then my pride got the better of me. Did you happen to snoop ?

  124. kevin says:

    G Money: That both things fell so far in favour of the Flames last year, in the same year, is what made last year a “lightning in a bottle” year for the team.

    Thanks for the explanation. If the Flames have a chance to repeat their performance of last year, how much of a chance to the Oilers have this year? Or have we already used up our ‘lightning in a bottle’ for a while?

  125. Woodguy says:

    Cameron,

    A. I don’t think Jooris played significant enough minutes to swing things one way or another, and I concur he is highly unlikely to ever shoot that well again.

    He was 7th on the Flames in goals with 12 (5% of all CAL goals)

    That’s not insignificant.

  126. kevin says:

    Bootstrap Effexor,

    This is your only comment that I half way understand. It is probably not a good thing to admit, but there it is. I said it.

    The oddest thing in my markup was the image name ending with a “-” character before the “.jpeg” file extension.
    I

  127. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris,

    That’s exactly right.In a nutshell:

    – Expecting the Flames to radically outperform their poor shot metrics, like they did last year, is not reasonable

    – Their performance, as it is with every team, will be related to their shot metrics, but the nature of the relation will be an unpredictable conglomeration of incidence, coincidence, and happenstance.It will happen for a reason, which just don’t know what will happen or what those reasons will be.But underperformance is just as reasonable an expectation a priori as overperformance.That’s how these things work.

    – So the most reasonable expectation on a forward look basis is to expect that, like most teams, they will perform more or less inline with their shot metrics.

    – Their shot metrics were shit last year, so in the absence of any change in their underlying shot metrics, expecting them to revert to being a shitty team next year is the ‘safe’ bet

    – Unfortunately, as an Oiler fan, they have taken steps in adding Frolik and Hamilton, they are a better team, and we should expect to see improved shot metrics.That’s what will drive their results next year, much moreso than nearly random variation in sh/sv.

    – But, as I’ve said in the past, that improvement is predicated on their baseline as a shitty bottom 5 team, not a playoff bubble team.That aspect of overperformance won’t sustain.

    I’m just hoping that CAL will improve their shot attempt metrics, but get shit goaltending and unsustainably low SH%.

    Then the MSM and others can go on and on about how improving their corsi wrecked the Flames.

  128. Pouzar says:

    F6ckin rid of one fucktard and another takes his place. Jezzuz H.
    I’m goin BINGO Bowling. Later.

  129. Woodguy says:

    Here’s a better way to visual CAL SH% last year.

    13/14 – NHL 5v5 SH% average was 7.9% (Note: CAL’s 5v5 SH% in 13/14 was exactly 7.9%)

    Here are the Flames whose On Ice SH% were over that:

    JIRIHUDLER 11.44
    MARKGIORDANO 8.73
    KRISRUSSELL 8.71
    SHANEO’BRIEN 8.6
    T.J.BRODIE 8.56
    CURTISGLENCROSS 8.55
    SEANMONAHAN 8.54
    MICHAELCAMMALLERI 8.53
    DENNISWIDEMAN 8.44
    DAVIDJONES 8.31
    JOECOLBORNE 8.13

    14/15 NHL 5v5 SH% was again 7.9%

    Here are the Flames whose On Ice SH% were over that:

    JIRIHUDLER 12.38
    KRISRUSSELL 12.07
    JOHNGAUDREAU 11.66
    DENNISWIDEMAN 11.09
    LANCEBOUMA 11.06
    MIKAELBACKLUND 10.69
    JOSHJOORIS 10.49
    MARKUSGRANLUND 10.04
    DAVIDSCHLEMKO 9.61
    MARKGIORDANO 9.52
    SEANMONAHAN 9.42
    JOECOLBORNE 9.24
    T.J.BRODIE 9.18
    MASONRAYMOND 9.09
    DAVIDJONES 9.07

    CAL’s 5v5 SH% was a 8.9%, a full point over the previous year.

    I guess Hartley didn’t ask his team to work hard in 12/13, or if he did, they didn’t respond.

  130. Cruiser says:

    One last Seinfeld reference. Cap space and the Oilers’ roster, who is spongeworthy?

  131. thepeetso says:

    Cruiser,

    Or “can’t spare a square”

  132. Connor'sreal says:

    kevin: This is your only comment that I half way understand. It is probably not a good thing to admit, but there it is. I said it.

    It’s like playing hockey – don’t start in the NHL. Go find some Aldous Huxley, and then some Chomsky.

    Having said that, I think BSE has just sent me to the minors…

  133. G Money says:

    square_wheels:
    G Money,

    You drink all the lemonade with a shot of “dads special Cuban stuff ” in each cup ?

    I’ve been tempted to ride over to COP and watch the baby Flamers but then my pride got the better of me. Did you happen to snoop ?

    Lemonade always improved when its a bit on the ‘stiff’ side.

    Could never bring myself to go watch the Baby Flamers. Urk!

  134. G Money says:

    Woodguy: I’m just hoping that CAL will improve their shot attempt metrics, but get shit goaltending and unsustainably low SH%.
    Then the MSM and others can go on and on about how improving their corsi wrecked the Flames.

    Ha, that would be awesome!!!

  135. Walter Gretzkys Neighbour says:

    G Money: Lemonade always improved when its a bit on the ‘stiff’ side.

    Could never bring myself to go watch the Baby Flamers.Urk!

    Presumably you don’t mean BSE as in Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy, otherwise known as mad cow disease.

    But having tried to make sense out of certain, ah, posts, I’m not entirely sure …

  136. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    I had three things running through my mind as I riffed on the nitrogenous fatty (NF).

    1) Staples:

    Why Darnell Nurse will make the Edmonton Oilers this year: he’s ready.

    As for McDavid, well, all I’m saying is that Patrick Kane had better call the cops.

    An 18-year-old kid stole his hands.

    2) Bruce:

    Connor McDavid dazzles in Edmonton debut, shows Oilers fans what all the fuss is about

    McDavid’s primary weapon is quickness — of foot, of hand, and of thought — and when he doesn’t finish a play directly he often delivers the puck into the blue paint faster than scrambling opponents are prepared to deal with it. In particular he scored a number of wraparound goals in this manner during the season just past, and did the same tonight.

    But oh, those hands! The breakaway deke was of extraordinary quality, with multiple touches in a split second that saw McDavid sell the forehand, then the backhand, before pulling it back to the forehand and into the roof of the net quicker than you could say “Patrick Kane”. Those same hands allowed him to control the puck time and again in traffic, with a deceptive extra dangle that would see the kid emerge with the puck and a bit of open ice, with a thoroughly discombobulated defender or two in his wake.

    3) What my brother passed along from Kane’s post-cup on-ice interview:

    “Hedman was the first guy I’ve gone up against who got inside my head to the extent that I didn’t know whether to deke, pass, or shoot.” (I wasn’t able to find the actual clip, so the anecdote is now double string-telephone removed).

    ——

    I was playing around with trying to sell the backhand, the forehand, and then finish off with a deceptive extra dangle.

    “landing the triple-triple” was a reference to a figure skating feat, but also to the triple-triple canister configuration of the NF. It was also playing on the fine line between Skate Canada and Ice Capades, as if perhaps Ice Capades now involved monster motorcycles acrobatics as the show finale.

    “handle the bars” was a highly telegraphed forehand move that wasn’t actually a forehand move at all.

    “footnote-footnote” was obviously a reference to Dorothy’s throbbing heel pipes. But there, also, even the hyphen was mildly pregnant (considering my previous post) as if Klinkhammer-McDavid-Korpikoski would soon become hockey’s most feared third line (aka, in Lowetide notion, McDavid-footnote-footnote).

    When a lesser mortal attempts to emulate the McDangle, what usually happens is an elaborate nothing-much-at-all, then the puck harmlessly rolls off his/her stick, and you’re left wondering “what was he.she actually thinking during that self-faking non-move?”

    ——

    Last night we didn’t have time to watch three movies, so we settled for Episode IV of Star Trek Continues (The White Iris).

    I don’t want to give anything away, but there’s a shot of a young girl in a flowing and (conspicuously) non-diaphanous gown fleeing Kirk down a curved corridor. On viewing the first frame of this shot, the word “Solaris” practically exploded from my lips.

    There’s also a prominent bottle on Kirk’s bedstand that will cause all males of a certain era to vocalize involuntarily.

    The Solaris reference is thematic, yet fleeting. The bottle reference is also thematic, and has more staying power.

    But both belong to the blink-real-slow and you miss them category.

    In the speedier blink-real-fast and you miss them category, my use of the phrase “feed me” clearly recalled in my own mind Little Shop of Horrors.

    In the Coca Cola category of don’t-even-blink and you still miss it category, how many noticed the Germanic “-en-” while groping with with visual image “chrome-plated ‘feed me’ Swartzennipples”? (this right after I depict the bulbous double-chambered gas tank as a red robin’s breast—which makes the “male” robotic feeding nipples more incongruous still, if that’s even possible).

    I was also kind of playing around with the slippery syllable “-en-” as metaphoric of Connor McDangles’ hair-triggered discombobulator.

    There were other things. It’s an interesting place to visit where you don’t even know yourself in the moment whether the puck rolling off your stick is the greatest flub ever, or the perfect setup for the most wicked trick-shot yet.

    The central question of my (now dismembered) post was this: How much of McDangle’s art is successfully passing beyond control to creative non-control? (with a side order concerning the fatty superbike as ambiguous coupling metaphor—much as White Iris takes up the old theme of the kick-ass Enterprise as the captain’s stalwart she-thing).

  137. Woodguy says:

    Bootstrap Effexor,

    ” (I wasn’t able to find the actual clip, so the anecdote is now double string-telephone removed).

    Obligatory Purple Monkey Dishwasher.

  138. Oiler_in_Mexico says:

    smellyglove,

    Thanks for this, I’ve been instructing my students and teaching colleagues on make proper use of images as well as finding CC licensed work and I kept meaning to point LT in that direction. Great find!

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