GOALS, GOALS, GOALS!

The Edmonton Oilers are going to be a more substantial offensive team in 2015-16. Reasons include Connor McDavid, Todd McLellan and his magic power play and the maturation of the Taylor Hall cluster—who now enter the prime of their careers. This RE was difficult, because there’s clearly a spike coming for this team offensively. How much? Here’s a guess.

OVERALL RE 2015-16 OILERS (COMPLETE SCORING)

total re 14-15This is the entire group, and as you can see there’s a 37-goal spike from last season’s actual to this season’s projection. I’ll tackle the goaltending next week, but it’s pretty obvious my projections will see enormous improvement over the GF-GA gap one year ago. You should be prepared for MORE than a 37-goal improvement in GA, meaning that the big part of Edmonton’s 2015-16 surge will come from what they’re keeping out of their net. More on that next week.

The rookies are splendid, lead by Connor McDavid. I think it’s fair to suggest that he’ll be a monster on the man advantage and an improving player in EV possession as the season wears on—but we shouldn’t expect 104 points or anything like that. I see Connor McDavid winning the Calder Trophy.

Taylor Hall’s season should put him front and center as one of the NHL’s true impact players, and I do believe he’ll see consideration for the First All-Star Team and maybe they even throw a trophy nomination his way.

DEFENSIVE SCORING

defense projected 2015-16The projected defensive improvement is slight, but please remember this is ‘reasonable expectations’ and if the PP goes off we could see some insane things—like Justin Schultz scoring 50 points. It could happen. Seriously. I have four forwards projected to be on the power play, so only Andrej Sekera and Schultz got a push with the man advantage as I’ve presented it here.

As for rookies, I have Nurse winning the job over Reinhart, but that could be turned around and it’s also possible we see both men spend much of the season in the minors.  I don’t believe the facts we know today lend themselves to that being the reasonable projection.

FORWARDS FINAL

FORWARDS RE 2015-16This is the forward list—I miscalculated a few things during the initial run (Anton Lander’s GP total, others) so some of these numbers may look a little different from what you remember (if you’ve been following along).

Overall, I have projected a more handsome group of rookies this season compared to 2014-15.

ROOKIES PROJECTIONLast year, Oscar Klefbom and Leon Draisaitl were the main rookies, although Leon was only around for half a season. McDavid, Nurse, Reinhart and several others on this list represent the new cluster, the McDavid cluster, and that group will soon be the center of any Oilers conversation.

Goalies next week.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

34 Responses to "GOALS, GOALS, GOALS!"

  1. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    But LT, your totals are too low again!! If this is “reasonable” I hate it! 😉 I kid, I kid, but as pessimistic as I usually am, I do see more “I’ll take the overs” on there than I see “I’ll take the unders” this year. I’m using total points, though, rather than your pts/game calculations. Can’t wait for fall (not so sure about winter).

    My overs:
    McDavid
    Hall
    Eberle
    Lander
    Yakupov
    Schultz
    Sekera

    My unders:
    Purcell
    Miller
    Fayne
    Korpikoski

  2. Lowetide says:

    The guys who get the PP push are going to spike in a big way for sure. Miller is a personal favorite I hope he gets there.

  3. stush18 says:

    What’s your reasoning on drai out scoring yakupov with pts/gm?

  4. Lowetide says:

    stush18:
    What’s your reasoning on drai out scoring yakupov with pts/gm?

    Yakupov .494
    Leon .487

    I do think we should be prepared for Leon to pass Nail. I’m not hoping for it, but this could be the case.

  5. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    This upcoming season is enough to make the Rain Man’s head explode. Cruise is so much like Schwarzenegger. He’s best cast as himself (Rain Man, The Colour of Money, and the portions of Jerry Maguire where he’s not looking straight at the camera; one film review I dimly recall specifically says that Risky Business demonstrates Cruise’s versatility because he’s so much not himself, having grown up in much tougher circumstances than the preppy pimp he performs in his unpygamas).

    I don’t have much else to add to the subject of “reasonable”.

    But there was another thing that burbled into my head this morning while my brain was trapped at warp factor one (not a good brain speed at a warp meet—you’ll get laughed right out of hyperspace).

    I was thinking this morning that I wished I was a cartoonist so I could draw an eight panel strip of what people would really look like when stepping out of a two-day holodeck adventure get-away (some combination of Total Recall, the crane scene from Casino Royale multiplied by all the Bond girls, and the biggest hang-over ever survived).

    Even Picard would need a lot more than a tutu two-tug to regain his dignified demeanor (this being a significant downside of having the stripes to completely countermand the experiential rate limiter and extreme situation air bags).

    I think he’d probably stumble out of the room on ravaged knees ranting in high prose like some combination of Beckett’s Lucky and John the Savage from Brave New World, whereupon a sexy red-headed professional injects him with a double-double of the Kirk cocktail that was once used (experimentally, out of canon) to treat his inflamed amygdala.

    A reasonable expectation? I think so.

  6. Lowetide says:

    There ah FOUR LIGHTS!

  7. kinger_OIL says:

    – Projecting Jultz with 50 points is akin to projecting Jultz as a Norris winner.

    – Yes 3 on 3 helps, but come on

    – I really hope this team tries more to score more goals, rather than trying to be more D responsible first: if you follow what I’m saying. Score a bunch, then reel it in with D: not the opposite. So more Kruger in aproach (but better systems and a real coach), and less of Dallas Eakins. You win by scoring more goals than the other team, but you need to score those goals,and then worry about D.

  8. Lowetide says:

    kinger_OIL:
    – Projecting Jultz with 50 points is akin to projecting Jultz as a Norris winner.

    – Yes 3 on 3 helps, but come on

    – I really hope this team tries more to score more goals, rather than trying to be more D responsible first: if you follow what I’m saying.Score a bunch, then reel it in with D: not the opposite. So more Kruger in aproach (but better systems and a real coach), and less of Dallas Eakins.You win by scoring more goals than the other team, but you need to score those goals,and then worry about D.

    Todd McLellan’s power plays are the stuff of legends.

  9. PerryK says:

    Losing 27 goals before the first puck drops for the season is very disappointing, LT!

  10. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    Beverly: Send him to—

    Worf: —my quarters—

    Geordi: —under restraint.

    Data: Yes, doctors.

    Data proceeds to apply field restraints to the nearly comatose captain.

    Riker: Hey, everyone sssh! Here comes Wesley!

    Ricker [quiet voice of command as heard through a pocket comb]: Holodeck! Maximum milk mode!

    Worf [booming]: Welcome to the Holodreck, Wesley.

    Wesley frowns.

    Geordi: Oh, don’t mind him, Worf’s had a few … uh … blows to the head. That’s just “Holodeck” with a Klingon accent.. Hey, Wes, how are things anyway? Got a big adventure lined up? Nudge, nudge, wink, wink.

    Wesley ignores the banter and proceeds into the Holodeck chamber without noticing the magnetically hog-tied hobo Picard stashed behind a potted plant. The door pops closed behind him with the dependable whoosh of NASA pneumatics.

    Beverly: Best … baby … sitter … ever. Now hurry the captain along, fellows. In another 48 hours he’ll know where he is. Good thing, too, that there’s one person on board this ship whose fantasies are tame enough for me to let my hair down.

    Data [feigning an intrigued expression]: May I observe?

    Geordi: Data! Mind your own business and follow orders!

    Data: Captain to sick bay?

    Worf: Captain to Crusher’s Quarters, as you well know. Grab his feet. On your mark. Lift. Positronic posterior, proceed.

    Geordi: I love it when he calls you that.

    Data [over his shoulder]: Positronic posterior is quite a mild epithet compared to Visor Vajayjay.

    Geordi: Vajayjay? I don’t think I know that word in Klingon …

    Worf [snarling]: If I could drop the captain just now, I’d fold you into a trash compactor.

    Data: Point taken.

  11. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Bootstrap Effexor,

    Brother, you’ve had a few too many in Ten Forward today with Guinan.

    Go to your quarters until further notice, lest you end up in the brig!

  12. Pouzar says:

    Not buying the Schultz optimism in these parts recently.

    I wanna bet someone…I got under 50 pts LT….you in? 😛

  13. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Pouzar,

    41 over/under? Who in their right mind would take the over on 50 without some odds?

    Ten full-time defensemen had 50 pts last year. Only five had more than 55 pts.

  14. Lowetide says:

    Pouzar:
    Not buying the Schultz optimism in these parts recently.

    I wanna bet someone…I got under 50 pts LT….you in? ?

    No. I bet my RE and no more. That said, the man has an offensive imagination and significant ability. We’d be foolish to overlook it, and foolish to overlook his defensive issues.

  15. flyfish1168 says:

    couple of interesting articles on justin recently.

    http://www.tsn.ca/the-quirky-justin-schultz-question-1.347216
    http://oilersnation.com/2015/8/19/does-schultz-spend-too-much-time-down-low

    justin sits at 49th in d men scoring as per NHL website stats. Spending the amount of time that he does deep and on the PP doesn’t bold well as a player with good offensive finish.

  16. dustrock says:

    Some heavy SFF in this evening’s LT post. I approve. From a certain point of view.

  17. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    flyfish1168,

    The Yost article really jives with the eye test, doesn’t it?

    In both NCAA (I watched a lot of his highlights) and the AHL, Schultz was a master at sneaking down low and using that elusive wrister to beat goalies. That shot just hasn’t worked out at all in the NHL against elite goalies n the same way, meanwhile, he winds up out of position. And the speed of the NHL transition game makes him pay on the way back.

    The goal would be for him to adapt and sneak part way and find teammates in good positions for rebounds, tip passes/deflections, etc. A 10-goal, 35 assist season with better defensive awareness would be the ideal next step for him, in my opinion.

  18. Pouzar says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Pouzar,

    41 over/under? Who in their right mind would take the over on 50 without some odds?

    Ten full-time defensemen had 50 pts last year. Only five had more than 55 pts.

    50 was tongue in cheek.
    I will go under 41.

  19. Jaxon says:

    I kind of wish you hadn’t accounted for rule changes in this as it makes the numbers harder to project onto last seasons standings. Before I realized that you gave some numbers a spike based on 3 on 3 and rule changes I made a quick and dirty estimate on the Goals Against and came up with 213 GA and combined that with 235 Goals For (37 over last years total) for a goal differential of +22. That would be amazing. I doubt your as optimistic on the Goals Against but (without accounting for rule changes) that would have placed them 6th or 7th in the West. Would have to project the increased goals from rule changes onto the overall league to make a projection onto last year work.

    Note: If they allow the same number of shots next season (2460) and get .916 SV%, they will have 207GA. A .913 SV% would get them the 213GA I used. If they can reduce the shots and get over .916%, then they are in great territory. Anyhow, just some food for thought.

  20. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Pouzar: 50 was tongue in cheek.
    I will go under 41.

    OK, I’m willing to step up and have a bit of fun. 41 exactly is a saw-off and we both chip in for LT. 42 or over I win, 40 or under you win. Agreed?

    Now, what shall we bet? A Woodguy seems a bit aggressive. Any ideas?

  21. Pouzar says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: OK, I’m willing to step up and have a bit of fun. 41 exactly is a saw-off and we both chip in for LT. 42 or over I win, 40 or under you win. Agreed?

    Now, what shall we bet? A Woodguy seems a bit aggressive. Any ideas?

    $41 donation to the site? 🙂

  22. flyfish1168 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    flyfish1168,

    The Yost article really jives with the eye test, doesn’t it?

    In both NCAA (I watched a lot of his highlights) and the AHL, Schultz was a master at sneaking down low and using that elusive wrister to beat goalies. That shot just hasn’t worked out at all in the NHL against elite goalies n the same way, meanwhile, he winds up out of position. And the speed of the NHL transition game makes him pay on the way back.

    The goal would be for him to adapt and sneak part way and find teammates in good positions for rebounds, tip passes/deflections, etc.A 10-goal, 35 assist season with better defensive awareness would be the ideal next step for him, in my opinion.

    the eye test passes on him
    He needs to develop a good slapper too.

  23. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Pouzar,

    Love that idea, but feel like we’d be doing that anyway at some point (donating that is)? How about loser donates to LT’s site and buys a case of beer or a bottle of wine or some such equivalent for the winner (something reasonable so neither person is put out more than $50 or so in total?).

    If Schultz lands on 41 points, LT gets $41 from each of us.

    What say you, good friend?

  24. Pouzar says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    Pouzar,

    Love that idea, but feel like we’d be doing that anyway at some point (donating that is)? How about loser donates to LT’s site and buys a case of beer or a bottle of wine or some such equivalent for the winner (something reasonable so neither person is put out more than $50 or so in total?).

    If Schultz lands on 41 points, LT gets $41 from each of us.

    What say you, good friend?

    You got yerself a wager my friend!
    I hope I lose!

    I have to write these wagers down 🙂

    Edit: Done

  25. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Pouzar: You got yerself a wager my friend!
    I hope I lose!

    I have to write these wagers down

    Edit: Done

    And done!

  26. Hammers says:

    I don’t see how you figure Yak and Purcell get more points together than Hall who plays less games . Figuring those two get most time with Hall and McDavid . Plus Hall will play more games this year . Yak gets more time and more points with those two .i hope .

  27. commonfan14 says:

    Missed the goaltending conversation from the last thread, but would have asked the following questions:

    Why was it so bad? Why did both Scrivens and Fasth nosedive so badly just like Dubnyk the year before?

    Are we really going to write that off as pure bad luck and forget about it? Do we think the team is treating it like an actual problem and trying to figure out why it happened?

    If Talbot stinks the joint out in the first ten games, will we once again preach patience and wait for a regression to the mean while another season burns?

    If the voodoo continues with both Eakins and Chabot gone, who or what is left to blame?

    I hope it’s something the Oilers will get the best analysts they can find to really look into, and then keep the answer to themselves if they find it.

  28. G Money says:

    Lowetide: Todd McLellan’s power plays are the stuff of legends.

    I will add some hard numbers to back up your ‘stuff of legends’ comment. I happen to have these numbers at hand because I’m generating them for a possible future NerdAlert article. My obsession with repeatability!

    Success on the powerplay when measured by PP% is actually not an especially repeatable skill. Over the last two years, the correlation between one season and next for PP% is just 0.328. The p-value on this (.011) tells us the correlation is highly unlikely to be zero, but its not a strong correlation.

    However, that effect comes into crystal clear focus when you look at the power play sh%, which of course is critical to the success of a powerplay. The correlation from year to year is just 0.156 (p=0.2343). In other words, there is basically no relationship between your sh% on the powerplay from one year to the next. Not repeatable. Luck of the draw.

    The picture changes when you start look at shots, Corsi, and scoring chances (War On Ice version). Now the correlations look like this:

    PP Corsi For/60 r=0.675 r^2=0.456 p=0.0000 stderr=0.097
    PP Scoring Chances/60 r=0.596 r^2=0.355 p=0.0000 stderr=0.099
    PP Shots/60 r=0.469 r^2=0.220 p=0.0002 stderr=0.110

    In other words, the repeatable part of a powerplay, the ‘skill’ part of it, is not the sh% or the pp% itself, it is the ability to generate shots and chances.

    Over the last two years, SJ has had over 60 SF/60, tied for #1 with WSH, with PIT being the only other team over 60. Separating those two seasons and listing all 60 team performances, SJ ranked #1 and #5 out of those 60 combined team performances.

    Over the last two years, SJ has had over 60 SCF/60, the only team to do so. That also means that an extremely high percentage of their shots are also scoring chances. Those two seasons, they ranked #1 and #4 out of 60 combined team performances.

    For CF/60, they are #1 over two years by a wide margin (117.6 vs 107.6 vs #2 PIT), and their yearly performances rank #1 and #3 out of 60.

    The powerplay in San Jose is the best in the league, and it’s not a fluke.

    Legendary indeed.

  29. Old School G says:

    Yak and Schultz are specialists. I think Coach McLellan’s power play, combined with these two is going to be very effective. Yak, is a one shot scorer, once he gets calibrated, and Schultz is sneaky like a burglar at the back door. They are our team’s secret weapons, and we already have McD, Hall, Nuge, Ebs, Pou, young Leon, and Lander up front. Holy shit.

    Teddy Purcell, cannot get past his lack of speed and compete. Lander and Leon should get that ice. Faster, more complete and competitive players, there will be plenty of skill playing with them, both round out lines, real nice.

    Ok here goes. Cannot wait for this season!

  30. Kmart99 says:

    Hammers:
    I don’t see how you figure Yak and Purcell get more points together than Hall who plays less games . Figuring those two get most time with Hall and McDavid . Plus Hall will play more games this year . Yak gets more time and more points with those two .i hope .

    This comment is really confusing me.
    You wonder how LT could have Yak and Purcell getting more points than Hall, but LT has them combine for 73 pts … Which is less than 75 I think.

    You support your question with the fact that LT has Hall playing fewer games… Odd, because wouldn’t Hall playing fewer games mean he’d be less likely to get more points than the combined total from Yak and Purcell?

    Nothing rhymes. Unless by more you mean less

  31. Kmart99 says:

    commonfan14:
    Missed the goaltending conversation from the last thread, but would have asked the following questions:

    Why was it so bad? Why did both Scrivens and Fasth nosedive so badly just like Dubnyk the year before?

    Are we really going to write that off as pure bad luck and forget about it?Do we think the team is treating it like an actual problem and trying to figure out why it happened?

    If Talbot stinks the joint out in the first ten games, will we once again preach patience and wait for a regression to the mean while another season burns?

    If the voodoo continues with both Eakins and Chabot gone, who or what is left to blame?

    I hope it’s something the Oilers will get the best analysts they can find to really look into, and then keep the answer to themselves if they find it.

    Well, the data using shot location from woi strongly suggests the goalies were more at fault than the team. The next thing to look into would be shot quality… No site provides that info, but there’s video available for anyone will a couple hundred free hours to sift through.

  32. Mr. D. says:

    Your missing the fact that 1 or 2 defensive bodies are GONE there numbers are barely subjective.

  33. jake70 says:

    If Schultz is clearly on pace for 45-50 points near or at trade deadline, bet Chiarelli trades him, because if not, then you got big decisions in June and the cap aint rising.

    Just looking at the Yandle trade (5.25M cap hit)…..53, 53, 30 – last 3 season point totals.
    •2015-Mar-01 Traded from Arizona Coyotes with Chris Summers and round 4 pick in the 2016 draft to New York Rangers for Anthony Duclair, John Moore, round 2 pick in the 2015 draft (Oliver Kylington) and round 1 pick in the 2016 draft . Schutz isn’t getting you that for sure. Will be very interesting where #19 ends up next season and for what term and money.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca