PENTICTON, WHEN SHE COMES!

by Lowetide

Loik Leveille is coming to Oilers camp in September (confirmation here) and could be a significant signing for the Oilers (should it get that far).  Consider a pre-draft scouting report:

  • ISS (No. 182 overall): Leveille is an offensive minded defender who was used in all situations and was counted on by the Screaming Eagles to contribute offense from the back end. The green light suited his game; he loves to jump in and carry the puck and has above average puck skills, but commits to the rush way too often. He is a decent straightline skater and shows good bursts of speed through the neutral zone, but first couple steps need work. On the defensive side; he has just average backwards skating ability; feet look a little heavy, pivots and crossover need work. He does play with intensity, takes the body, but a lot of his decisions are a little high  risk/reward type. He has a heavy shot that needs to find the net more often. A chance to be an NHL Prospect but will need to improve mobility and decisions.

Peter Chiarelli has added Andrej Sekera, Griffin Reinhart and Eric Gryba to the NHL mix, and the draft brought in several additional defensive prospects (some RH’s too, including Gryba, Bear and Marino). Leveille is a pretty interesting option and his NHLE’s put him near the top of Edmonton’s prospect blue offensively.

  1. Joey Laleggia 82GP, 14-23-37
  2. Brad Hunt 82GP, 11-19-30
  3. Darnell Nurse 82GP, 7-16-23
  4. Loik Leveille 82GP, 5-15-20
  5. Griffin Reinhart 82GP, 6-11-17
  6. Jordan Oesterle 82GP, 5-12-17
  7. Ethan Bear 82GP, 5-9-14
  8. Ben Betker 82GP, 2-10-12
  9. Dillon Simpson 82GP, 2-9-11
  10. David Musil 82GP, 1-7-8
  11. Martin Gernat 82GP, 1-7-8
  12. Brandon Davidson 82GP, 3-4-7
  13. William Lagesson 82GP, 1-6-7
  14. Caleb Jones 82GP, 2-5-7
  15. Ziyat Paigin 82GP, 2-2-4

Interesting. Let’s have a look!

  • C Tyler Soy (via ISS). Forward blessed with equally good shooting and passing ability.
  • D Kevin Davis (via Future Considerations) Davis is a multi-situational D-man. He is an excellent puck mover from the back end, moving well with quick feet and fluid overall mobility.
  • G Jordan Papirny (ISS) He is a consistent and reliable goaltender who continues to raise his game. He is poised and shows good positional and athletic qualities.
  • F Rihards Bukarts (RLR) Latvian super pest is always first into scrums after the whistle,
    frequently getting under opponents’ skin.
  • D Colton Waltz. Tough defender with the Wheat Kings brings a physical edge to every shift.

All of these men are listed by NHL.com here and here. It’s a weird list that also includes old timey Russian draft picks so I’m not absolutely certain what we’re looking at (it could be the reserve list, that’s a guess). Either way, we have confirmation of Leveille’s attendance and Papirny told Guy Flaming several weeks ago he was also attending.

PROJECTED ROOKIE CAMP ROSTER (ADDING INVITES)

  • Goalies (4): Laurent Brossoit, Eetu Laurikainen, KevEN Bouchard, Jordan Papirny.
  • Defense (13): Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart, Dillon Simpson, Jordan Oesterle, David Musil, Martin Gernat, Joey Laleggia, Ben Betker, Caleb Jones, Ethan Bear, Loik Leveille, Kevin Davis, Colton Waltz.
  • Center (6): Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Bogdan Yakimov, Jujhar Khaira, Alexis Loiseau, Tyler Soy.
  • Left Wing (5): Mitch Moroz, Kale Kessy, Josh Winquist, Connor Rankin, Braden Christopher
  • Right Wing (4): Anton Slepyshev, Greg Chase, Kyle Platzer, Rihards Bukarts.

This is my estimate, some of these players (Brossoit, Reinhart, Gernat) may not be eligible to play in the rookie camp. I’ve excluded some of the Euro kids (Paigin, Svoboda specifically) because history tells us their league seasons in Europe make an appearance at camp impossible.

NHLE’S FOR PROJECTED ROOKIE ROSTER

  1. C Connor McDavid 82GP, 23-40-63
  2. C Leon Draisaitl 82GP, 15-26-41
  3. C Alexis Loiseau 82GP, 13-23-35
  4. R Rihards Bukharts 82GP, 13-16-29
  5. C-R Kyle Platzer 82GP, 12-17-29
  6. L Anton Slepyshev 82GP, 17-11-28
  7. L Connor Rankin 82GP, 11-16-27
  8. C-R Greg Chase 82GP, 8-16-24
  9. C Bogdan Yakimov 82GP, 10-13-23
  10. C Tyler Soy 82GP, 10-12-22
  11. L Braden Christoffer 82GP, 9-11-20
  12. L Josh Winquist 82GP, 8-11-19
  13. L Kale Kessy 82GP, 8-8-16
  14. C Jujhar Khaira 82GP, 4-5-9
  15. L Mitch Moroz 82GP, 3-3-6

DEFENSE

  1. Joey Laleggia 82GP, 14-23-37
  2. Darnell Nurse 82GP, 7-16-23
  3. Loik Leveille 82GP, 5-15-20
  4. Griffin Reinhart 82GP, 6-11-17
  5. Jordan Oesterle 82GP, 5-12-17
  6. Ethan Bear 82GP, 5-9-14
  7. Ben Betker 82GP, 2-10-12
  8. Dillon Simpson 82GP, 2-9-11
  9. Colton Waltz 82GP, 2-9-11
  10. Kevin Davis 82GP, 1-9-10
  11. David Musil 82GP, 1-7-8
  12. Martin Gernat 82GP, 1-7-8
  13. Caleb Jones 82GP, 2-5-7

I’m thrilled about Leveille and Soy, interested in the others and fascinating by Rihards Bukarts who has the potential to set TC on its ear. The defensemen are giants. I suggested both Bukarts and Papirny were overagers worth looking at here.

I CANNOT believe I’m saying this: Hurry winter!! (May God forgive me).

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77 comments

dustrock August 21, 2015 - 8:39 am

I’m always excited even for rookie camp, but this is the first time ever I’ve been excited about rookie camp since April 17th. 🙂

Grain of salt on this, but on HFB Oilers a guy had a friend (non-NHLer) who was attending BioSteel, and he said it was unreal how McDavid could produce at top speed, did not look out of place at all with veteran NHL players, including guys like Hall, Seguin, Subban, etc.

Yeah, no contact league, but it apparently it was highly competitive (go figure).

cadooo August 21, 2015 - 8:41 am

Can’t wait for the young stars tournament! Been every year since I moved to the valley. It’s an awesome preview of the future. This year should be pretty epic with all that talent and McDavid.

Ca$h-McMoney! August 21, 2015 - 8:42 am

Rihards Bukarts posted 59 points in 11 games in the Latvian secondary league… damn.

dustrock August 21, 2015 - 8:47 am

Yeah but I had 16 points in 11 games in the Latvian secondary league, so….

Bar_Qu August 21, 2015 - 8:55 am

dustrock:
Yeah but I had 16 points in 11 games in the Latvian secondary league, so….

And I think half those games you didn’t take off your skateguards too (couldn’t find the youtube of it though).

slopitch August 21, 2015 - 9:02 am

McDavid in a Reebok jersey. Thats a collectible!

Totally forgot about Alexis Loiseau. Thats a good NHLE. A captain who has 96 pts and plus 48 on a winner. Good signing. Those are better numbers then Brodziak had. He’s definitely one to follow in the A this year.

frjohnk August 21, 2015 - 9:03 am

Would Marco Roy be at this camp?

EDIT: Even though he is only on a AHL deal, I still think he would be one of the better players in this camp. He showed well in previous camps.

speeds August 21, 2015 - 9:06 am

I checked that list a week or two ago LT and it said there were 64 names listed, they have added 6 names since (I think?) but are only up to 69 names listed, anyone know who was dropped, did I miss a transaction in the last few days?

Truth August 21, 2015 - 9:08 am

Also notable (IMO):

Loik Leveille – 18 yrs old – 6’0″ – 223 lbs
Joey Laleggia – 23 yrs old – 5’10” – 185 lbs
Brad Hunt (AHL incumbent) – 26 yrs old – 5’09” – 188 lbs

All according to hockey db.

frjohnk August 21, 2015 - 9:12 am

Truth:
Also notable (IMO):

Loik Leveille – 18 yrs old – 6’0″ – 223 lbs
Joey Laleggia – 23 yrs old – 5’10” – 185 lbs
Brad Hunt (AHL incumbent) – 26 yrs old – 5’09” – 188 lbs

All according to hockey db.

One of Leveilles weaknesses is mobility. I bet if he lost a few pounds, that would help.

Truth August 21, 2015 - 9:28 am

frjohnk: One of Leveilles weaknesses is mobility.I bet if he lost a few pounds, that would help.

Yeah from what I have read so far it is “skates strikingly well…Can really protect the puck with stocky frame and set of hands” (elite prospects) to “220-lb wrecking ball that will log big minutes, throw heavy bodychecks, be your shutdown defenseman, but also contribute on the scoresheet” (The Hockey Writers). I take that is he is a brick outhouse that can skate at a reasonable level. It is also mentioned he needs to work on his “burst”. Makes sense.

Edit: Clearly much of this is mentioned in LT’s post above…I was just looking for additional info as his NHLE’s are impressive and he seems like a potential fan favourite in EDM.

RexLibris August 21, 2015 - 9:30 am

The wings of that roster look like the weakest point. The C, D and G are all pretty damned strong.

Burkharts and Chase. What I wouldn’t give to see them both suit up for the Flames game in Penticton.

Assuming it is the Canucks, Oilers, Flames and Jets again this year (haven’t heard if another organization is being invited), my guess is a good showing from all but the Canucks.

Flames have rebuilt their defensive prospect depth with Kylington, Hickey and Andersson not to mention the forward group of Ferland, Arnold and Bennett.

The Jets have had some exceptional drafts of late and have a very well-stocked prospect cupboard including Connor, Harkins, Ehlers and De Leo.

Obviously McDavid and Draisaitl are two marquee prospects at the tournament, but you could easily add Nurse to that group before even scratching the surface with Slepyshev, Chase, Yakimov and others.

Not so the Canucks. Virtanen, McCann, Demko, Cassels and Boeser are the most notable prospects I can think of and the only one I have the slightest interest in seeing is Cassels.

Ca$h-McMoney! August 21, 2015 - 9:58 am

RexLibris,

Virtanen had a down year. He was a guy traditional analysts had going a little later, and most of us on the internet (myself included) were thinking that he should have been rated higher. His scoring in his draft year was very good, and he looked like the best power forward of the bunch.

Turns out we (internet fans who don’t watch hockey) were wrong, with the caveat that we’re looking at 1 year post draft and there is lots of time to turn that ship around. It happens sometimes (see Roy, Marc Olivier).

Woogie63 August 21, 2015 - 10:11 am

I have my tickets for this tournament, for the first time. Has anyone gone to this, is there any tournament event stuff iI should also attend?

Hammers August 21, 2015 - 10:15 am

Tickets to Penticton this year will be worth a small fortune .to bad I can’t get one or two .

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" August 21, 2015 - 10:15 am

Woogie63,
Going as well. I’m definitely not a sports photographer but will bring the full frame DSLR of course to share with Lowetidians on Twitter.

Excited for the whole road trip north through the national parks of the US.

Ca$h-McMoney! August 21, 2015 - 10:16 am

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Weird Al has a concert in that arena on the 9th.

Just saying….

Bootstrap Effexor August 21, 2015 - 10:25 am

As a side effect of a real problem, I have a bottle of pills in my half bathroom (captioned “do not store in bathroom”) that are useful on the days where my mind is moving so slowly I can barely function. For some reason it occurred to me just now that if there were such a thing as an adult safety cap, it would refuse to open until the toilet hatch is battened. Anyway, I was yawning so hard just then it was pretty much a coin toss.

When bad weather was imminent, the hatches were covered with tarpaulin and the covering was edged with wooden strips, known as battens, to prevent it from blowing off. Not surprisingly, sailors called this ‘battening down’.

Ah, yes, the nautical Woodguy, who probably also tended the depths chart.

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" August 21, 2015 - 10:32 am

Ca$h-McMoney!,

Won’t be there yet on that date, not that I would pay much money for that. If I found a free ticket or something, sure.

Pouzar August 21, 2015 - 10:53 am

RexLibris: Not so the Canucks. Virtanen, McCann, Demko, Cassels and Boeser are the most notable prospects I can think of and the only one I have the slightest interest in seeing is Cassels.

I really like McCann from my SSM viewings.

TheOtherJohn August 21, 2015 - 11:03 am

Expect CMD to score 75 pts. Cannot wait for the season to start

Ca$h-McMoney! August 21, 2015 - 11:04 am

TheOtherJohn,

In Penticton?

I agree.

verdad2.0 August 21, 2015 - 11:20 am

With no defense better than last year, how does MacDavid score 50?

Remember we have Schultz, Nikitin and Ference expected to play serious minutes to start the season

Ducey August 21, 2015 - 11:24 am

What? No Tkachev?

Who does this Chiarelli guy think he is?

Training camp just won’t be the same without sideshow Vladdy.

frjohnk August 21, 2015 - 11:25 am

Great interview with Darnell and Kia.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/oilers-nurse-talks-mcdavid-sister-kia-and-elevating-game/

Darnell is not the skinny kid anymore.

Ducey August 21, 2015 - 11:43 am

Bukarts might take the mantle of most interesting tiny Euro player at camp (from Omark and then Tkachev).

These are some pretty sweet moves:

http://www.thehockeyflow.com/rihards-bukarts-dekes-his-way-through-entire-oil-kings-team/

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" August 21, 2015 - 11:56 am

verdad2.0:
With no defense better than last year, how does MacDavid score 50?

Remember we have Schultz, Nikitin and Ference expected to play serious minutes to start the season

McDavid scores 50 because the Oilers trade Hall + Nurse for OEL.

Pouzar August 21, 2015 - 12:04 pm

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: McDavid scores 50 because the Oilers trade Hall + Nurse for OEL.

Can I take the over on 50 pts sans OEL?

Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker) August 21, 2015 - 12:06 pm

verdad2.0,

Don’t know, but trading the best offensive player for OEL will probably help.

Younger Oil August 21, 2015 - 12:25 pm

I kind of just realized, remember MacT’s infamous “We’ll be happy coming back next year with Schultz, Klefbom, Fayne, Nikitin, and Ference on the back end” line at the end of season presser that made people so furious?

We still have that.

I know it was a tall ask to get rid of Nikitin and/or Ference, and it was great that we added Sekera, but the D is still probably bottom 5 in the league, and it’s near impossible to do well with that.

We’d better pray that Talbot is the real deal.

Ducey August 21, 2015 - 12:41 pm

Younger Oil:
I kind of just realized, remember MacT’s infamous “We’ll be happy coming back next year with Schultz, Klefbom, Fayne, Nikitin, and Ference on the back end” line at the end of season presser that made people so furious?

We still have that.

I know it was a tall ask to get rid of Nikitin and/or Ference, and it was great that we added Sekera, but the D is still probably bottom 5 in the league, and it’s near impossible to do well with that.

We’d better pray that Talbot is the real deal.

Not to pick on you, but I see the “worst defense in the league (or close to it)” quote all the time here.

Has anyone ever measured it?

If I recall the Oilers were about 18th in shots against last year. If that is how we measure defense (maybe it isn’t) that would put them in the middle of the pack. No?

Ca$h-McMoney! August 21, 2015 - 12:46 pm

Ducey,

Ya, it’s bad, possibly worst in the league, but I don’t think clear-cut worst in the league is fair. Buffalo and Colorado come to mind.

Pajamah August 21, 2015 - 12:50 pm

Ducey,

LT here (It’s the goaltending, stupid), Nerd Alert, and the Woodblog all touched on it when looking at goalie options this offseason. League worst goaltending by a mile, average or slightly below average defense. Even at 18-25 in the league in team defense, with league average goaltending, the Oilers go up exponentially in the standings.

The defense isn’t great. Easily a top d or two away from really good. But they were far from THE problem.

Bootstrap Effexor August 21, 2015 - 1:08 pm

Before my lucky bathroom coin toss took effect, my useless brain was uselessly attending the decorative foliage outside the kitchen window and a vision came to me of a hobo Rain Man wearing a bowler hat pulling the last petal off his ninety-second daisy—older now, he’s pretty sure it was ninety two—exactly as he speaks the words “she loves me not”, conspicuously festooned in white curls beside a patch of white daisies of which—at a quick glance—precisely half of the 184 chipper yolks have now been plucked off.

Sizing up the larger situation, one suspects he’s about to suddenly stand up and shuffle off with the paddle-wheel plod of an old man openly enslaved to the call of nature.

———

I think the Freudian upshot is that my jaw is gaping as wide as it can go for our[*] much deferred “because Oilers” root canal.

Please baby please, any time now, any time.

[*] Rosencrantz, Guildenstern, Rickibear, Godot, et al

———

92.

Book it.

Bootstrap Effexor August 21, 2015 - 1:20 pm

If I were ever a prop man for Hollywood, there would definitely at some point be found a large tome supine on the desk of suspect shrink with a prominent masthead reading:

The Three Faces of Nonconformity
Guildenstern, Rosencrantz, et al.

Almost certainly they once resolved primary authorship with a quick toss and have alternated ever since.

Pouzar August 21, 2015 - 1:47 pm

We got Connor Frickin McDavid.

Spoils August 21, 2015 - 1:47 pm

I have a feeling we are going to LIGHT up the rookie tournament. (and by we I mean McD)

Woodguy August 21, 2015 - 1:54 pm

Younger Oil:
I kind of just realized, remember MacT’s infamous “We’ll be happy coming back next year with Schultz, Klefbom, Fayne, Nikitin, and Ference on the back end” line at the end of season presser that made people so furious?

We still have that.

I know it was a tall ask to get rid of Nikitin and/or Ference, and it was great that we added Sekera, but the D is still probably bottom 5 in the league, and it’s near impossible to do well with that.

We’d better pray that Talbot is the real deal.

Not really.

MacT’s depth chart that caused us to lose our minds:

Klefbom
Fayne
Nikitin
Marincin
Schultz
Ference
Nurse

Depth chart today:

Sekera
Klefbom
Fayne
Nikitin
Schultz
Gryba
Ference
Nurse
Reinhart

Sekera pushes everyone down a slot and that’s pretty valuable.

Nurse and Reinhart both look to move up that depth chart rather quickly too.

Remember that Klefbom started last year at 6/7 on the depth chart and ended up 1st.

Nurse and Reinhart can be top 6 Oiler Dmen on merit this year.

Wouldn’t surprise me if the depth chart ended up as:

Sekera
Klefbom
Nurse
Fayne
Reinhart
Nikitin
Schultz
Gryba
Ference

Or something like that.

frjohnk August 21, 2015 - 1:56 pm

Ducey: Not to pick on you, but I see the “worst defense in the league (or close to it)” quote all the time here.

Has anyone ever measured it?

If I recall the Oilers were about 18th in shots against last year.If that is how we measure defense (maybe it isn’t) that would put them in the middle of the pack.No?

I did this a few weeks ago.

Here is another look at the “team defense” stat I calculated way back in Febuary . I know there are other good ways to try and get a numbers look at team defense by using corsi, fenwick and scoring chances, but for this exercise I just used shots allowed on net. And specifically shots that come from the low danger area which is mostly the perimeter, medium danger area which is near the slot, and the high danger area which is mostly the slot. With this stat, it gives us a decent understanding of what goaltenders faced each game.

These 3 different areas produce different shooting percentages, so I can give each shot location a weighting based on shooting percentage and match it with what each team gives up in regard to shots from these locations and come up with a stat called “team defense.” From my calculations, the shooting percentage of shots from the low danger area was 3.3% , shooting percentage of shots from the medium danger area was 8.1%, and shooting percentage of shots from the high danger area was 17.4%

So to warm up, let`s look at save % in regards to shots from the 3 areas of low danger (perimeter), medium danger (beside the slot), and high danger (slot) locations of the 30th place team, 1st place team, league average and where EDM sits.

All situations
Overall save%
EDM…………0.892…(30th)
Leag Avg…….0.915
MTL…………0.928…(1st)

Low Danger Save%
EDM…………0.947..(30th)
Leag Avg……..0.967
MTL………….0.977..(1st)

Med Danger Save%
EDM………….0.892…(30th)
Leag Avg……..0.925
MTL…………..0.940..(1st)

High Danger Save%
CAR….………0.789…(30th)
EDM..………..0.824…(23rd)
Leag Avg…….0.834
NJD…………..0.849…(1st)

The Oilers were last in overall save percentage, last in save percentage in shots from the low and medium danger area and 23rd in save percentage in shots from the high danger area. This was the worst goaltending in the league. Can we blame it all the goaltending, was it all on the defense or some combination of both?

Now here is a snippet of what EDM, the best and worst teams, and the league average gave up from the different shot locations.

Shots From The Low Danger Location Allowed/60min
Buffalo………15.7 (30th)
NYI…………..11.15 (1st)
Edm………….12.59 (8th)
League Avg….13.45

Shots From The Medium Danger Location Allowed/60min
Buffalo………9.84 ( 30th)
Nash…………7.07 (1st)
Edm…………8.24 (21st)
League Av…..7.99

Shots From The High Danger Location Allowed/60min
Toronto…….10.18 (30th)
St Louis…….7.10 (1st)
Edm………..9.11 (26th)
League Av….8.37

Toronto and Buffalo occupied the 29th and 30th spots in shots allowed in all 3 disciplines. Complete Fort Mac Big Truck Tire Fires! Edmonton does not fare too bad here. They allowed almost 1 less perimeter shot per game, allowed 0.25 more medium shots per game and 0.74 more high danger shots per game than league average. They allowed almost league average total shots per game, but the shot locations were weighted more towards the medium and high danger areas but nothing too serious.

Moving towards the “team defense” stat.

I will use ANA as a snippet of the work I did.
For ANA = Low danger location shots allowed 13.77, medium danger location shots allowed 7.37, high danger location shots allowed 7.63. This equals 28.8 shots allowed per 60 min. Now if we plug in the league average shooting %`s for each location, the cumulative weight of each shot allowed against Anaheim would suggest the opposing team scoring 2.38 goals per 60 min.

Here is the “expected team goals against average” or “team defense” stat ranked in order from best to worst.
L.A….2.27
MIN..2.28
NSH..2.28
STL…2.29
DET..2.32
FLA..2.34
CAR..2.37
ANA..2.38
NYR..2.39
WSH.2.41
T.B…2.48
WPG..2.48
BOS…2.48
MTL..2.52
CGY..2.54
PHI…2.55
PIT..2.56
S.J…2.56
NYI..2.59
OTT..2.59
VAN..2.60
DAL..2.61
CHI…2.61
N.J…2.64
EDM.2.67
CBJ…2.81
COL..2.88
ARI…2.88
TOR..2.98
BUF..3.05
League average 2.55

There are 10 teams that are 0.15 “expected goals against average” below league average. These teams range from the LA Kings who had elite team defense to the Washington Capitals who had really good team defense.

There are 13 teams within 0.06 “expected goals against average” of league average. Meaning these teams had average team defense.

There are 7 teams that were 0.10 expected goals against average” above league average. Meaning these teams like NJ and EDM had just below team defense all the way to Toronto and Buffalo who had full blown tire fire team defense.

If a team has an “expected goals against average” less than 2.55 goals per 60 min, the team defense is better than league average, if expected goals against average is more than 2.25 goals per 60 min, the team defense is worse than league average.
In EDM’s case, their “team defense” was 0.12 goals per game worse than league average.

Now if we take “expected goals against” or the “team defense” stat and marry it with actual goals against, we come up with a number that is the “difference.”

Expected goals against /60…Actual goals against/60…Difference
ANA…….2.38………………………..2.60………………….-0.22
ARI……..2.88………………………..3.09…………………..-0.20
BOS…….2.48………………………..2.37…………………….0.11
BUF…….3.05………………………..3.16…………………..-0.11
CAR…….2.37………………………..2.54……………………-0.17
CBJ…….2.81………………………..2.87……………………..-0.07
CGY……2.54………………………..2.46………………………0.08
CHI……..2.61………………………..2.17……………………..0.44
COL…….2.88………………………..2.55……………………..0.33
DAL…….2.61………………………..2.99…………………….-0.38
DET…….2.32………………………..2.44……………………..-0.12
EDM……2.67………………………..3.24…………………….-0.57
FLA……..2.34……………………….2.51……………………..-0.17
L.A………2.27………………………..2.26……………………..0.01
MIN……..2.28……………………….2.34…………………….-0.06
MTL…….2.52………………………..2.15……………………..0.37
N.J………2.64………………………..2.39……………………..0.25
NSH…….2.28………………………..2.29……………………..0.01
NYI……..2.59…………………………2.63…………………….-0.04
NYR…….2.39………………………..2.21……………………..0.18
OTT…….2.59…………………………2.48……………………..0.11
PHI……..2.55…………………………2.60……………………..-0.05
PIT……..2.56…………………………2.40……………………..0.16
S.J………2.56…………………………2.59……………………-0.03
STL…….2.29………………………….2.34…………………….-0.05
T.B……..2.48………………………….2.43…………………….0.05
TOR…….2.99…………………………2.98…………………….0.01
VAN…….2.60…………………………2.51…………………….0.09
WPG…..2.48…………………………2.35……………………..0.13
WSH…..2.41………………………….2.38……………………..0.03

The “expected goals against average” stat (team defense) adjusts for shot quantity and shot quality (well, maybe not quality but shot location, one day, we will get to shot quality) so we can measure “team goaltending” on a more level playing field. So while each teams baseline number for ranking “team defense” is the league average goals against number of 2.55, the baseline used to rank team goaltending is their own “team defense” number.

So what does the “difference” mean? The “difference” is actually “team goaltending”. If there is a minus on the difference, it means the goaltending for that team allowed more goals than what the league average would have factoring where shots came from. If it`s a positive, then goaltending for that team was above league average.

Now if we take a look at EDM’s number we see that the “difference” or “team goaltending” number is a whopping -0.57. That is by far the worst in the league. Remember when I said that Buffalo’s “team defense” was a Fort Mac Big Truck Tire Fire? Well their “team defense” number was -0.50 from the baseline of league average. When we adjust for what the team defense gave up, EDM’s goaltending was worse than that. Does NASA have vehicles with bigger truck tires than the vehicles in Fort Mac? If so, the Oilers goaltending was a NASA Vehicle Tire Fire.

So to recap, the Oilers “team defense” was -0.12 goals per game off the league average.

The Oilers “team goaltending” was -0.57 goals per game off the league average when we adjust for what they faced in shot quantity and shot quality ( or location).

By this measure, defensively, the Oilers were not good, but they were not league worst, not even close. Goaltending, on the other hand, was absolutely pitiful.

Woodguy August 21, 2015 - 1:56 pm

Pouzar:
We got Connor Frickin McDavid.

WWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!

LT wants to send him back to junior for some reason.

Why does LT hate McDavid?

Pouzar August 21, 2015 - 2:00 pm

Woodguy: WWWWWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!

LT wants to send him back to junior for some reason.

Why does LT hate McDavid?

We must deal with this LT character.

stush18 August 21, 2015 - 2:11 pm

Dang, I missed mom and dads argument yesterday.

I think LT is right….about this years team being all about speed.

Even gazdic is slimming down to 225 for camp, so he can be quicker and get in on the forecheck quicker. Combine that with everyone working on their speed, and I think we can expect a fast and aggressive forechecking team.

Might open a door for a player like miller.

RPG August 21, 2015 - 2:19 pm

Woodguy: MacT’s depth chart that caused us to lose our minds:

Klefbom
Fayne
Nikitin
Marincin
Schultz
Ference
Nurse

You forgot Petry, therefore Sekera replaces Petry on the depth chart. Still pretty ugly imo.

Adam Wu August 21, 2015 - 2:20 pm

frjohnk:

By this measure, defensively, the Oilers were not good, but they were not league worst, not even close.Goaltending, on the other hand, was absolutely pitiful.

The “Oilers had the worst defence in the league” was ALWAYS a narrative unsupported by any evidence whatsoever.

Multiple analyses have been done on these threads, looking at it from every imaginable angle, throughout all of last season. Give the Oilers of last year league average goaltending, and they improve to just outside playoff bubble teams.

The defence with Nikitin and Ference, with MM misused and Petry alienated (and then gone) was NEVER “worst in the league”. They were in fact BETTER than bottom 5 throughout the year.

It was the goaltending. It was always the goaltending. It was NOT Schultz being unable to play defence. It was NOT NN being a double agent. It was NOT Ference being washed up. (All these were true but they were not the primary cause of the problems) It was goaltending.

It was goaltending.

It was goaltending.

It was NOT the D leaving the goalies out to dry, wrecking their confidence by allowing too many high quality unstoppable chances. It was the GOALIES blowing their own confidence by flubbing all the low quality chances (and in turn probably wrecking the D’s confidence, because now they had to overcompensate and constantly worry about the low quality shots, whereas normal D play revolves around denying the high quality shots, forcing the shooters to take the lower quality shots and trusting the goalie to handle those)

It was not the D.

It was goaltending.

It was goaltending.

It was goaltending.

Which is why getting a stud like OEL, while very nice, is NOT, I repeat, NOT, as high or critical a priority as some here might think.

Adam Wu August 21, 2015 - 2:25 pm

Younger Oil:

I know it was a tall ask to get rid of Nikitin and/or Ference, and it was great that we added Sekera, but the D is still probably bottom 5 in the league, and it’s near impossible to do well with that.

We’d better pray that Talbot is the real deal.

The D was never bottom 5 even with Nikitin and Ference. It was bottom 10, but a significant shade BETTER than bottom 5.

Yes we need to hope that Talbot is the real deal, but not because the D is bottom 5.

It’s because the problem last year was primarily, massively, unequivocably, far more goaltending than D.

Woodguy August 21, 2015 - 2:40 pm

RPG: You forgot Petry, therefore Sekera replaces Petry on the depth chart. Still pretty ugly imo.

No.

At the time we lost our collective shit, we assumed Petry was gone.

I had a long post on this.

Read it here: http://becauseoilers.blogspot.com/2015/02/if-craig-mactavish-does-what-he-says.html

Also,

As crappy as everyone says the Oilers D were last year (and they were not good) they were 50% CF when Ference was off the ice.

That’s good for 18th in the NHL.

They were 45% when Ference was on the ice.

That’s good for 27th in the NHL.

Oiler’s finished up 24th with a 48.1

Keep Ference off the ice.

Sekera upgrade on Petry.

Klef a year better.

Fayne better with a vet partner like Sekera.

Reinhart and Nurse become NHLers

Nikitin comes to camp in shape.

Huge upgrade on coaching.

If these things come to pass I don’t think that 15th in the NHL in CF% is out of the question.

G Money August 21, 2015 - 2:42 pm

On the topic of D, I posted this in one of the recent threads, but will recreate it here. This was the opening night D last year (in descending order of EV TOI):

Schultz-Hunt – seriously
Nikitin-Fayne
Ference-Petry

Part of what made Eakins/MacT’s defensive assessments so fucking out to lunch can be seen just by that third pairing. On what planet is Jeff Petry behind ANY of those first four guys for EV TOI?

Unbelievable.

In any case, despite the modest improvements in personnel, I expect the projected opening nights depth chart for this season of something like

Sekera-Fayne
Klefbom-Schultz
[two of Gryba, Nikitin, Ference, Nurse, Reinhart]

is miles better than last years group.

Miles and miles.

By the way, despite the putridness of last years opening night roster, the Oilers dominated that game for about 55 minutes. They lost because Ramo played extremely well and let in just 2 goals on 40 shots, while Scrivens let in 5 goals (3 softies – the first three) on 26 shots.

Woodguy August 21, 2015 - 2:45 pm

Adam Wu: The “Oilers had the worst defence in the league” was ALWAYS a narrative unsupported by any evidence whatsoever.

Multiple analyses have been done on these threads, looking at it from every imaginable angle, throughout all of last season. Give the Oilers of last year league average goaltending, and they improve to just outside playoff bubble teams.

The defence with Nikitin and Ference, with MM misused and Petry alienated (and then gone) was NEVER “worst in the league”. They were in fact BETTER than bottom 5 throughout the year.

It was the goaltending. It was always the goaltending. It was NOT Schultz being unable to play defence. It was NOT NN being a double agent. It was NOT Ference being washed up. (All these were true but they were not the primary cause of the problems) It was goaltending.

It was goaltending.

It was goaltending.

It was NOT the D leaving the goalies out to dry, wrecking their confidence by allowing too many high quality unstoppable chances. It was the GOALIES blowing their own confidence by flubbing all the low quality chances (and in turn probably wrecking the D’s confidence, because now they had to overcompensate and constantly worry about the low quality shots, whereas normal D play revolves around denying the high quality shots, forcing the shooters to take the lower quality shots and trusting the goalie to handle those)

It was not the D.

It was goaltending.

It was goaltending.

It was goaltending.

Which is why getting a stud like OEL, while very nice, is NOT, I repeat, NOT, as high or critical a priority as some here might think.

Truth.

Tire Fire August 21, 2015 - 2:45 pm

Adam Wu:

Which is why getting a stud like OEL, …

I don’t know man, I think the shitty goaltending might be more important to solve…

Seriously though, I agree with what you’re selling in your full post. The ensuing snap kick to the confidence cajones explains a lot of the season.

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" August 21, 2015 - 2:48 pm

Adam Wu,

I’ve been saying it all spring and into summer. I really think Schultz is going to surprise some people this year on the upside. If they wind up putting him with Sekera, look out, he is going to explode and cost the Oilers a pretty penny next summer on a long-term deal.

Nurse looks bigger and stronger and is going to be playing a good chunk of games with the big club.

Nikitin I’m not counting on because back injuries are so tough, but if he comes in healthy he’s going to be serviceable.

Sekera is like Stralman. He is going to look so good if he draws a partner like Klefbom.

The Oilers are probably going to be looking at having Sekera, Schultz, Klefbom, Fayne, Nurse all as viable #2-4 D at the NHL level. If Nikitin can round out the bottom pair and stay healthy and Gryba isn’t a total pylon, it’s going to look solid (with Davidson and/or Reinhart spelling him). They may lack a true #1 at this stage, but by committee the D is going to be middle of the pack in the NHL.

If Talbot delivers and Scrivens bounces back, the team’s going to see a serious jump this winter and will be in meaningful games through Valentine’s Day.

As bad as Schultz has been, I know he knows what he needs to do this summer and by all reports I’m getting, he’s working on it. Kid still has ridiculous talent. For all the slack we give Yakupov because of “try,” let’s give Schultz a bit of rope for having been a young, entitled or unthreatened (thanks MacT) millionaire. He’s 25 now and maturing and not only can he grow up, he also knows his feet are being held to the coals. If he wants a big next contract, he’s gotta put it together.

I’d bet on him delivering.

Woodguy August 21, 2015 - 2:50 pm

Adam Wu,

It was NOT the D leaving the goalies out to dry, wrecking their confidence by allowing too many high quality unstoppable chances.

This is the only play I’ll quibble a bit.

NHL teams last year ranked in High Danger Chances against/60

NSH 8.9
DET 9
FLA 9
L.A 9.1
MIN 9.2
STL 9.3
ANA 9.5
BOS 9.7
N.J 9.8
WPG 10
WSH 10.2
PIT 10.3
OTT 10.3
T.B 10.4
MTL 10.4
CBJ 10.7
CAR 10.9
NYR 10.9
CHI 11.1
S.J 11.1
NYI 11.2
DAL 11.2
VAN 11.3
PHI 11.3
CGY 11.7
ARI 11.9
EDM 12.6
COL 12.6
BUF 13.3
TOR 13.7

EDM was not great in this respect.

That being said, the goaltending was atrocious.

Woodguy August 21, 2015 - 2:54 pm

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

. If they wind up putting him with Sekera, look out, he is going to explode and cost the Oilers a pretty penny next summer on a long-term deal.

While McLellen doesn’t segregate his lines by zone start very much, he does with his Dpairs.

Their is a tough minutes tough dzone pair.
2nd pair
Easiest zone start and easiest comp pair.

McLellen’s RH options are:

Fayne
Schultz
Gryba

Fayne and Gryba have played the tough zs/tough minutes role and Schultz hasn’t.

Unless McLellen goes with a Klefbom-Fayne top pair I don’t see how Sekera-Schultz could be a thing with Schultz exploding.

The minutes would be much harder than he had last year.

Will be interesting to see.

LoDog August 21, 2015 - 2:59 pm

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

I’m firmly in the Schultz is going to surprise this year camp. He will be played to his strengths and “jultzing” could take on a whole new meaning.

rickithebear August 21, 2015 - 2:59 pm

Younger Oil: I know it was a tall ask to get rid of Nikitin and/or Ference, and it was great that we added Sekera, but the D is still probably bottom 5 in the league,

HSCA/60 rank: Avg last 3 years
top 10 11.71
top 20 12.46
top 30 12.85
top 40 13.18
top 60 13.60
top 80 14.28
top 100 14.82
top 120 15.42

Our D
Fayne
w/ EDM 1st 17.16
W/ NJ 1st 9.92 #1 in the game.

Sekera
W/ LAK 2nd 11.41 top 10
W/ CAR 1st 17.59
W/ Buf 1st 13.14 top 40

Nikitin
W/ EDM 1st 15.80
W/ CBJ 2nd 12.46 top 20

Klefbom
13-14 2nd 18.25
14-15 2nd 17.18

Gryba
14-15 2nd/3rd 13.99 top 70

Reinhart
w/ NYI 3rd 16.75
W/ NHL D 3rd 15.26 top 120 League average

Ference
W/ EDM 1st 17.93 2nd 16.33
w/ BOS 3rd 14.96 top 110 above avg

J. Schultz
first 2 yr 3rd 18.79
last yr 3rd 16.78

Marincin
W/ EDM 1st 18.83

Petry
W/ EDM 2nd 17.75

Of the 42 goalies who established qualified TOI for 2 seasons
the High scoring chance save %

#1 Holtby .8995
#2 Talbot .8636
#3 Crawford .8579
#4 Halak .8576
#5 Price .8570
#6 Varlamov .8476
#7 Hiller .8455
#8 Rask .8450
#9 Lehtonen .8437
#10 Bishop .8429
#11 Schnieder .8429
#12 Smith .8422
#13 Lundquist .8405
#14 Bernier .8404
#15 Luongo .8399
#16 Bobrovsky .8370

#39 Scrivens .8104
#40 Niemi .8095
#41 Mcelhinney .8025
#42 Lindback .7958

Dubnyk
14-15 .8648
13-14 .8128 Eakins pinch anyone!
12-13 .8672
11-12 .8663
He is a top 5 goalie!

1. Our d is Better
2. Our goalie is top 3 were it matters.
3. SJ ran a system that reduces HSCA.
4. Eakins pinch is far away.

Woogie63 August 21, 2015 - 3:05 pm

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

I am bring my old D90 and my sigma 150-500 lens to get in close.

Ca$h-McMoney! August 21, 2015 - 3:05 pm

frjohnk:

Here is the “expected team goals against average” or “team defense” stat ranked in order from best to worst.
L.A….2.27
MIN..2.28
NSH..2.28
STL…2.29
DET..2.32
FLA..2.34
CAR..2.37
ANA..2.38
NYR..2.39
WSH.2.41
T.B…2.48
WPG..2.48
BOS…2.48
MTL..2.52
CGY..2.54
PHI…2.55
PIT..2.56
S.J…2.56
NYI..2.59
OTT..2.59
VAN..2.60
DAL..2.61
CHI…2.61
N.J…2.64
EDM.2.67
CBJ…2.81
COL..2.88
ARI…2.88
TOR..2.98
BUF..3.05
League average 2.55

Se this is obviously false.

Arizona can’t be the third worst Dcorp. They have OEL.

OEL plays 58min/night and hasn’t had a goal against while he was on the ice since 2011/2012.

OEL farts thunder and pisses lightning.

OEL > Math

rickithebear August 21, 2015 - 3:13 pm

OEL:
14-15 1st comp 15.19 HSCA/60
13-14 1st 15.65
12-13 1st 15.76
11-12 1st/2nd 15.21
10-11 3rd 12.73 top 30
All his 1st comp seasons have avg to below league average HSCA/60 rates.

Just some facts about the real OEL
not the
Fantasy feelings club!

OilClog August 21, 2015 - 3:16 pm

If the Oilers don’t shelter Mcjesus with Hall..

Nuge does not need Hall.

For the love of McJesus give him every weapon they can.

All preseason long I’d see if Yak can bury what Jesus offers.

Tire Fire August 21, 2015 - 3:17 pm

Ca$h-McMoney!,

OEL once fought Superman on a bet, the loser had to start wearing his underwear on the outside of his pants.

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" August 21, 2015 - 3:33 pm

Woodguy:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

. If they wind up putting him with Sekera, look out, he is going to explode and cost the Oilers a pretty penny next summer on a long-term deal.

While McLellen doesn’t segregate his lines by zone start very much, he does with his Dpairs.

Unless McLellen goes with a Klefbom-Fayne top pair I don’t see how Sekera-Schultz could be a thing with Schultz exploding.

First part: Yes, I know and agree with you. See Vlasic-Braun. I’ve mentioned this before.

Second part: It’s not a Klefbom-Fayne top pair. It’s a Klefbom-Fayne shutdown pair.
Sekera-Schultz get less D-zone starts.

It’s what I would like to see with a vet-young’un, vet-young’un top 4 with neither pair being designated the “top” pair.

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" August 21, 2015 - 3:34 pm

Tire Fire:
Ca$h-McMoney!,

OEL once fought Superman on a bet, the loser had to start wearing his underwear on the outside of his pants.

OEL once fought Chuck Norris and beat him with a TKO. He fought Stan Weir and got a no-decision after 12 rounds.

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" August 21, 2015 - 3:42 pm

Woogie63:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

I am bring my old D90 and my sigma 150-500 lens to get in close.

Nice. I will have 5 cameras with me, ha ha, but two of them will be 120mm film toy cameras shooting old black and white film just for fun. Those kids are going to be just a blur anyway. I only have one zoom lens and it’s for my old Pentax and it’s a slow lens and only goes to 250mm anyway. It worked fine enough on safari 5 years ago, but I have higher standards I expect of myself now so won’t be shooting with that thing. Think I will just have some wide prime lenses and get an overall scene, rather than solo shots of players. That’s never been my thing anyway (sports photography where you don’t even see the field/rink/court around them giving you some context).

How man other site visitors are going?

bendelson August 21, 2015 - 3:51 pm

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: He fought Stan Weir and got a no-decision after 12 rounds.

A true gentleman would never write such absolute filth – whether in jest or not.
You are better than that George.

Woodguy August 21, 2015 - 4:02 pm

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: First part: Yes, I know and agree with you. See Vlasic-Braun. I’ve mentioned this before.

Second part: It’s not a Klefbom-Fayne top pair. It’s a Klefbom-Fayne shutdown pair.
Sekera-Schultz get less D-zone starts.

It’s what I would like to see with a vet-young’un, vet-young’un top 4 with neither pair being designated the “top” pair.

So Sekere-Schultz as 2nd pair. (given these definitions)

That could work.

Klef-Fayne were garbage against the toughs last year with a 43.3 CF% 47OZS

I’d like Sekera to get those minutes.

We need a pair to handle the best.

Ducey August 21, 2015 - 4:18 pm

Tire Fire:
Ca$h-McMoney!,

OEL once fought Superman on a bet, the loser had to start wearing his underwear on the outside of his pants.

Verdad was watching, and ever since has had an unusual attraction to OEL, and a habit of wearing his underwear outside his pants (which leads to chaffing and makes him VERY ANGRY!!)

Ducey August 21, 2015 - 4:24 pm

LT: “I CANNOT believe I’m saying this: Hurry winter!! (May God forgive me).”

Its snowing near Calgary.

LT, what have you done? Not only do you use your powers to jinx the Oilers and trade all their defenseman. Now you are changing weather patterns!

G Money August 21, 2015 - 4:37 pm

Ducey: Its snowing near Calgary.

I can tell you from having just driven through it while picking up the kids from their Muay Thai camp: it is snowing IN Calgary.

NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" August 21, 2015 - 4:42 pm

bendelson: A true gentleman would never write such absolute filth – whether in jest or not.
You are better than that George.

Ha ha. I apologize. I know I blasphemed. Waiting for verdad 2.0 to chime in any minute now.

Drew August 21, 2015 - 5:42 pm

Adam Wu: The “Oilers had the worst defence in the league” was ALWAYS a narrative unsupported by any evidence whatsoever.

Multiple analyses have been done on these threads, looking at it from every imaginable angle, throughout all of last season. Give the Oilers of last year league average goaltending, and they improve to just outside playoff bubble teams.

The defence with Nikitin and Ference, with MM misused and Petry alienated (and then gone) was NEVER “worst in the league”. They were in fact BETTER than bottom 5 throughout the year.

It was the goaltending. It was always the goaltending. It was NOT Schultz being unable to play defence. It was NOT NN being a double agent. It was NOT Ference being washed up. (All these were true but they were not the primary cause of the problems) It was goaltending.

It was goaltending.

It was goaltending.

It was NOT the D leaving the goalies out to dry, wrecking their confidence by allowing too many high quality unstoppable chances. It was the GOALIES blowing their own confidence by flubbing all the low quality chances (and in turn probably wrecking the D’s confidence, because now they had to overcompensate and constantly worry about the low quality shots, whereas normal D play revolves around denying the high quality shots, forcing the shooters to take the lower quality shots and trusting the goalie to handle those)

It was not the D.

It was goaltending.

It was goaltending.

It was goaltending.

Which is why getting a stud like OEL, while very nice, is NOT, I repeat, NOT, as high or critical a priority as some here might think.

Well said… please promise that posters like you Woodguy, Spoiler, Gmoney never ever leave. I don’t know what I’d do if you folks weren’t around. i tearfully think of that alternate universe, sniff.

Drew August 21, 2015 - 5:45 pm

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: OEL once fought Chuck Norris and beat him with a TKO. He fought Stan Weir and got a no-decision after 12 rounds.

no one beats Stan Weir on my watch! did not happen! maybe Semenko, McSorely and Brown all at once though??? errr OK he did not beat him but still a no one goes 12 with Stan!

verdad2.0 August 21, 2015 - 6:13 pm

Adam Wu,

Insane post
Did you ever watch Schultz play defense last year?

OEL isn’t a luxury. He is a necessity.

Drew August 21, 2015 - 6:32 pm

verdad2.0:
Adam Wu,

Insane post
Did you ever watch Schultz play defense last year?

OEL isn’t a luxury. He is a necessity.

oh yes the insanity of it all!

admiralmark August 21, 2015 - 6:52 pm

I don’t know.. I saw every damn game last year and I’d say the Defence was a massive problem. Goaltending a major disappointment as well. Which one was worse? Does it really matter? Both needed to be fixed.

Lowetide August 21, 2015 - 6:56 pm

Admiral: It’s the goalie. Honest.

https://lowetide.ca/2014/12/20/its-the-goalie-stupid/

delooper August 21, 2015 - 10:24 pm

Snow only made it to Cadomin today, LT. You need to pray harder.

It will happen, if you **BELIEVE** !

Jaxon August 24, 2015 - 7:30 pm

Bukart is pretty impressive. I’m not sure how he slipped through the draft in 2014. He was a rookie in the WHL whereas most draft eligible players are in their 2nd year. He led all WHL rookies in goals. To me, that is, at the very least, a, “let’s take a late round flyer on this kid” stat. The other thing that impressed me is that the highlight goal that Ducey found occurred during the playoffs. Looking forward to seeing him and Loik in camp. I had Loik pretty high on my list of hopeful picks for the draft.

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