RE 15-16 BEN SCRIVENS: BACK ON THE CHAIN GANG

It’s easy to forget that Ben Scrivens began life in the hinterland with a very strong run as the Edmonton Oilers No. 1 goalie. In 2013-14, after coming over from Los Angeles, Scrivens was golden in net for the town team. History tells us when a goalie’s performance goes off the grid, the possible causes (age, loss of limbs or trunk, concussion) include random acts of horrible and (I believe) shell shock is a real thing—in war and in net. “Regress to the mean” is a thing too, and if you’re a Ben Scrivens fan—and I am one—light a candle and say a prayer to the God you pray to for a return to normal. Redemption is beautiful, in real life and in sport.

RE 13-14 BEN SCRIVENS (OILERS)

  • GP: 21
  • GAA: 3.01
  • SP: .916
  • EV SP: .922

RE 14-15 BEN SCRIVENS

  • GP: 57
  • GAA: 3.16
  • SP: .890
  • EV SP: .897

BEN SCRIVENS 2015-16: 19GP, 2.95 .902

  1. Looks like you split things down the middle. Not quite, but I think it’s reasonable to assume both a recovery and something less than his 2013-14 season. The numbers here reflect that.
  2. It’s like you just made these numbers up. (Pause).
  3. How many goalies to go? One more.
  4. Do you want to talk about Scrivens’ 14-15 season? Man. I don’t know. It’s like Ray Milland in Lost Weekend. Seriously. And I really think Ben Scrivens is a good guy so have no desire to rip on him.
  5. What the hell happened? I think he was hit by some kind of spell behind his own net in game one against Calgary. It was awful, just awful and it’s absolutely certain the start of the season took its toll. I honestly don’t think he ever recovered.
  6. Seriously. What happened? Well, he wasn’t good, Don. I mean we could blame apple cobbler or the moon or Dallas Eakins (a lot of people blame Dallas Eakins) but the goalie didn’t goal and that’s a bad thing.
  7. He had a good resume before the acquisition? Yes. Scrivens’ four seasons of college featured good SP’s (.911, .930, .931, .934) after year one and he had some interesting postings in the minors. Reading (ECHL) for 13 games (.938) followed by parts of three seasons with the Marlies (.924, .926, .917). That’s some consistent goaltending average to quality numbers.
  8. You liked the Scrivens signing. Yes. I said (here) “Scrivens worked hard to get himself into this position, and has been rewarded for it with a contract and a number one job. If it doesn’t work out, it’s still a good bet. This is an experienced goaltender by age, and his performances in the NHL so far indicate quality.” Source
  9. Isn’t that pretty much what you said yesterday about Cam Talbot? Yes.
  10. (Pause). Scrivens had one good year (Edmonton traded for him) and the other seasons were poor compared to the rest of the league in terms of adjusted save percentage (link is to Darcy McLeod article).
  11. Okay, let’s move on. Thank God.
  12. Oilers are fully behind him, right? Well…..
  13. Well what? He’s still here! Sure. However, the Oilers acquired Anders Nilsson and that’s absolutely an indication they want real competition for the backup role.
  14. Scrivens improved over the season, though. Actually, he didn’t. His one good month was February (.922SP) but in four April games he was ghastly (.800SP). Source.
  15. So he stumbled. Ah, I think it was “everyone is auditioning for a job next year” time and Ben Scrivens wasn’t doing well. Remember, Laurent Brossoit was called up for a game and shot lights out. Meanwhile the gent who was hired to start fumbled and bumbled.
  16. Again I ask: What the hell happened? I believe (and this isn’t anything to do with analytics or math) there’s a group of goalies in NHL history we can call the “Gilles Meloche All-Stars” and they’re a bunch of good goalies who saw so much rubber it derailed them. Seriously.
  17. Shell shock? Yeah, shell shock. Scrivens’ resume suggests he should be fine, rebound and go on to a fine career. The best thing for him is probably another town, and I do think he might get that new town before Christmas.
  18. Seriously? The new GM has no loyalty to him, the new coach either. Cam Talbot is the new hero, dressed in white and arriving in Dodge City on horseback any minute now.
  19. What are the odds Scrivens is here after the deadline? 20%. That’s a guess of course but it isn’t high. It would be lower but I have faith that the young man can rebound and post a solid number for Edmonton in a backup role.
  20. So he’s better suited to backup? I’ve never really bought into the idea that a goalie is a starter or backup. NHL history has lots of backups who’ve emerged and exceeded expectations, Dwayne Roloson being one.
  21. What are the odds he’ll be an NHL starter again someday? I’ll say 40%. Ben Scrivens had a nice run there and I do think NHL GM’s are fully aware the team he backstopped was addled in many ways.
  22. Was there a time he could have saved his job? Before Dallas Eakins was fired last season, Edmonton’s possession numbers were pretty good, not great. The goaling failed them, just awful bad, and at that point I think Ben Scrivens could have saved his starting job and the coach’s job too. It’s not a very nice thing to say now, makes him look bad. That isn’t my intent, but I do believe that to be true.
  23. Why did this happen? You pay a man to do a job and he doesn’t do it. There’s no mystery here.
  24. Was he too closely aligned to Dallas Eakins? I have no idea.
  25. Will that close relationship hamper his future with the Oilers? IF Ben Scrivens was too closely aligned to Dallas Eakins it might be an issue but if he goes out and plays like he did in 2013-14 those issues wash away.
  26. Scrivens is a good person. All that we can know from the outside suggests he’s a very fine man. He and Jenny Scrivens came to our city and jumped right in, helping out and making a difference. We’re a northern town and we notice if people turn their noses, and we notice when they work in making themselves part of us. Whatever happens this fall and winter, the Scrivens’ have my respect and I do think there are others who feel the same way.
  27. But you have to stop the puck. I believe he will recover, don’t know if it’s enough to get another contract from the Oilers. Suspect he’s playing for 29 other teams this fall and it’s likely only a matter of time. Gives me no joy in stating it.
  28. Why this song? It’s about bad things that can happen on the way to a happy ending. It’s about relationships of youth that end too soon for reasons great and small. It’s about death and healing and it’s about regrets and the best of us sometimes slipping through our fingers. It’s a phenomenal song about a lost love and sad, maddening endings.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

119 Responses to "RE 15-16 BEN SCRIVENS: BACK ON THE CHAIN GANG"

  1. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Very nice job there LT.

  2. Lowetide says:

    Thanks Cash!

    On the Lowdown today:

    10:05 Jonathan Willis
    10:25 Jeff Krushell (Blue Jays)
    11:05 Travis Yost on Justin Schultz
    11:40 Dave Jamieson on the Eskimos

  3. zatch says:

    .902 is ghastly. Just terrible. If you are putting up that kind of number, even on the Oilers, you should be a backup in the A. Anything under .910 in todays NHL is not even close to good enough. I think he is a touch better, but if he isn’t, there’s nothing recommend about him as a stopper of pucks.

  4. oliveoilers says:

    Dear “Gentle Ben” (with his demeanor, coupled with ‘Bear Rugging’ at every puck, it just works),

    You have approx. 20 NHL games to stay in the NHL, injury permitting. It’s not even your fault really.

    I hope you make it, buddy.

  5. frjohnk says:

    Puckhanding and lack of proper decision making with the puck were one of Scrivens major faults last year. Not sure how many goals were a result of this, but it was too many. Clean that up and that would be a major help.

    Scrivens is a smart guy and a fierce competitor, I would not be surprised to see him bounce back this year and put up solid numbers.

    Oilers luck would be Scrivens bounces back and Talbot craters, opening up the goalie debate again.

  6. Hammers says:

    Doesn’t anyone remember Dubnyk . This city eats goalies for dinner .

  7. verdad2.0 says:

    Why did the OIlers not sign Ramo?
    Again a reluctance to immediately improve?
    Could Scrivens not have been bought out also?

  8. Hammers says:

    Doesn’t anyone remember Dubnyk . This city eats goalies for dinner . He may get more than 19 games if his lights out like he was when he first came . Coaches only care about wins .

  9. oliveoilers says:

    frjohnk: Oilers luck would be

    winning the draft lottery after actually not deliberately tanking.

  10. frjohnk says:

    oliveoilers: winning the draft lottery after actually not deliberately tanking.

    oilers luck with goaltending

  11. RexLibris says:

    Looking at Scrivens at WoI, his percentage of goals allowed from the low danger area is well above average. The mid-danger area is even and the high danger is above average.

    The mid and high danger areas are what one could expect of a bad team.

    The low danger goals against appear to be the anchor that sunk him and the team last year.

    Compare with Miller in Vancouver. His goals against gradually increases from the low, medium to high danger shot areas in an otherwise predictable fashion.

    He was still no screaming hell in net, but the goals he gave up were largely in the mid to high danger areas compared to Scrivens who seemed to give up more than his fair share of distance goals.

    Over an extra 12 games (45 to 57) Scrivens posted a 0.4 higher goals against average as well.

    Markstrom was on par or worse than Scrivens, if anyone is interested, in a small sample size mind you.

    Good thing they punted Lack. He was definitely holding that team back.

  12. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    verdad2.0,

    Ramo signed for $3.8 million. Of all the people available, his stats were among the most questionable as I remember it (I’m not the expert). Talbot is a much, much better bet.

    We should have traded Hall and Nurse for OEL and then traded OEL and RNH for Price.

    Problem solved.

  13. RexLibris says:

    verdad2.0:
    Why did the OIlers not sign Ramo?
    Again a reluctance to immediately improve?
    Could Scrivens not have been bought out also?

    Ramo isn’t likely to be any better a bet than Scrivens.

    Buying out Scrivens doesn’t help the cap situation because it spreads it out for another year after this one when the cap is likely to stay flat – maybe even drop.

    Adding Nilsson and Laurikainen was a good bet. Retaining Bachman to push Scrivens might have been the better bet, but the Canucks outbid Chiarelli.

    The Oilers need to shed salary this year and they can do that by adding roster redundancies for Purcell, Nikitin, Scrivens and Ference. Three of those four are gone at the trade deadline or latest July 1st. The fourth could be traded at the deadline. Shedding that salary and having more capable replacements, even marginally so, step in is reasonable approach to take at this time while we wait to see what the economic landscape is going to look like and whether better deals can be had to attend to the roster holes that haven’t been solved by internal development this season.

  14. oliveoilers says:

    frjohnk: oilers luck with goaltending

    I know.

    However, any ‘bad’ luck must be juxtaposed with ‘good’ luck. Luck being extremely subjective….

  15. RexLibris says:

    frjohnk: Oilers luck

    This team has had more than it’s fair share of goaltending luck over the years.

    Moog, Fuhr, Ranford, Essensa, Salo, Joseph, Roloson.

    Even Khabibulin had his moments.

    The weakness comes from the fact that only two on that list were internally drafted and developed.

  16. verdad2.0 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Did you watch Ramo play?
    He was impressive and real contributor to the Flames out-performance.
    Sort of the un-Scrivens.

  17. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk:
    Puckhanding and lack of proper decision making with the puck were one of Scrivens major faults last year.Not sure how many goals were a result of this, but it was too many.Clean that up and that would be a major help.

    Scrivens is a smart guy and a fierce competitor, I would not be surprised to see him bounce back this year and put up solid numbers.

    Oilers luck would be Scrivens bounces back and Talbot craters, opening up the goalie debate again.

    His positioning was curious at times. To my eye he overplayed many of his angles and left a huge portion of the net wide open. I thought “high blocker side” was a black hole and those full body dry heaves at the puck…ugh.

  18. frjohnk says:

    RexLibris:
    Looking at Scrivens at WoI, his percentage of goals allowed from the low danger area is well above average. The mid-danger area is even and the high danger is above average.

    The mid and high danger areas are what one could expect of a bad team.

    The low danger goals against appear to be the anchor that sunk him and the team last year.

    Compare with Miller in Vancouver. His goals against gradually increases from the low, medium to high danger shot areas in an otherwise predictable fashion.

    He was still no screaming hell in net, but the goals he gave up were largely in the mid to high danger areas compared to Scrivens who seemed to give up more than his fair share of distance goals.

    Over an extra 12 games (45 to 57) Scrivens posted a 0.4 higher goals against average as well.

    Markstrom was on par or worse than Scrivens, if anyone is interested, in a small sample size mind you.

    Good thing they punted Lack. He was definitely holding that team back.

    Scrivens was below average in each of the areas of high, medium and low danger in save %

    All situations
    Overall save%

    EDM…………0.892…(30th)
    Leag Avg…….0.915
    MTL…………0.928…(1st)

    Low Danger Save%
    Scrivens………0.940
    EDM…………0.947..(30th)
    Leag Avg……..0.967
    MTL………….0.977..(1st)

    Med Danger Save%
    Scrivens………0.900
    EDM………….0.892…(30th)
    Leag Avg……..0.925
    MTL…………..0.940..(1st)

    High Danger Save%
    Scrivens………0.806
    CAR….………0.789…(30th)
    EDM..………..0.824…(23rd)
    Leag Avg…….0.834
    NJD…………..0.849…(1st)

  19. wheatnoil says:

    RexLibris:
    Looking at Scrivens at WoI, his percentage of goals allowed from the low danger area is well above average. The mid-danger area is even and the high danger is above average.

    The mid and high danger areas are what one could expect of a bad team.

    The low danger goals against appear to be the anchor that sunk him and the team last year.

    Two things I wondered about with this. The first thing I wondered is if the shot trackers in Edmonton were just really bad at labelling shot location, so perhaps some of Scrivens’ low danger shots were actually mislabelled.

    If that were the case, then you’d expect Scrivens’ low danger save percentage (and adjusted save percentage) to be better on the road than at home.

    Home: Low Danger Sv% – .955; Adjusted Sv% – .918
    Road: Low Danger Sv% – .951; Adjusted Sv% – .897

    It’s actually worse on the road… so it’s not the shot trackers at Rexall that are skewing the numbers worse.

    The second thing is that Stephen Burtch mentioned on Twitter over the summer that Low Danger Sv% is the most volatile out of the three (Low, Medium & High Danger). That’s why they’re starting to look at just High Danger Sv% +/- Med Danger Sv% as more predictive of goalie ability than the Low Danger numbers.

    So, based on this, one would expect Scrivens’ LD Sv% to rebound more than his MD or HD Sv%.

  20. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    verdad2.0:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Did you watch Ramo play?
    He was impressive and real contributor to the Flames out-performance.
    Sort of the un-Scrivens.

    Watch what?

    Oh, you mean hockey?

    No, I don’t watch hockey.

  21. Jordan says:

    It’s not the city. It was most likely a combination of factors.

    If it was the Goalie Coach, then things should improve, as Chabot is gone now. I’m cautiously optimistic that with Schwartz have a full off-season with both goalies, things will return to normal.

    If it was the defensemen, we’ve got better depth, with better options on the cusp who will hopefully be able to push their way up the chart and push poorer options into the pressbox.

    If it was the forwards not providing enough defensive support, hopefully the additional year of experience will help improve their ability to read and react

    If it was the system that was being employed by one or both of the coaches, then we have McLellan to right the ship and implement a system that fits our team.

    If the Scrivens is still garbage after all that, then maybe it is all mental. But I think most of it has to do with environmental factors listed above.

    The most important point I have to support this is Scriven’s own history:

    Season——Team——Lge——GP——Shots——GAA——Svs——Pct——–Av.Shots/Game
    2011-12——Leafs——NHL——12——672———3.13——324——0.902——27
    2012-13——Leafs——NHL——20——1025——-2.69——496——0.915——24.8
    2013-14——Kings——NHL——19——975——–1.97——432——0.931——22.7
    2013-14——Oilers——NHL——21——1235——3.01——679——0.916——32.3
    2014-15——Oilers——NHL——57——3228——3.16——1372——0.89——24.1

    If this were an issue of him facing too many shots and feeling shell-shocked, then how do we account for the fact he’s faced near average shots/game for his career? He’s played between 40-50 games a year between the AHL & NHL since 2011. Last year was the worst his sv% has been ever.

    What this tells me is there was something else going on.

    Considering all the other changes on the Oilers, I read this as, “The Oilers were letting Scrivens down” not “Scriven’s can’t be a 1 or 1A or 1B goalie”.

    It also doesn’t consider the possibility that Scrivens may have been helping the team to Connor McDavid.

    If I were a betting man, I’d bet on a return to NHL average for Ben. I think this RE is too low, and doesn’t look at enough of what else was going on with the Oilers last year.

    JMO

  22. dustrock says:

    Pouzar: His positioning was curious at times. To my eye he overplayed many of his angles and left a huge portion of the net wide open. I thought “high blocker side” was a black hole and those full body dry heaves at the puck…ugh.

    Not a goalie coach or anything more than an average fan but it was this kind of issue that screams “lack of confidence” to me. In one’s self and likely the D corps

  23. frjohnk says:

    Scrivens was 18th in TOI for goaltenders last year
    Fasth was 47th
    Talbot was 33rd

    Of the 48 goalies that played more than 1200 minutes last year

    Low Danger Save %
    Scrivens was 48th
    Fasth was 46th
    Talbot was 35th

    Medium Danger Save %
    Scrivens was 43th
    Fasth was 47th
    Talbot was 9th

    High Danger Save %
    Scrivens was 38th
    Fasth was 30th
    Talbot was 5th

    If our goaltending posts numbers that Scrivens and Fasth did last year, we are again a lottery team.
    If our goaltending posts numbers that Talbot did last year, we are most likely a playoff team

  24. kinger_OIL says:

    Nice LT – His handling of the puck though is brutal, not sure if that is fixable…

    – You bring up a point about being traded: this is a work in progress roster: in the best case, Captain, Scrivens NN get traded in season…

  25. verdad2.0 says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    If you had you would appreciate what Ramo could have brought to the Oilers.
    He did all the things that Scrivens failed to do.

  26. Pouzar says:

    verdad2.0:
    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    If you had you would appreciate what Ramo could have brought to the Oilers.
    He did all the things that Scrivens failed to do.

    You do realize Scrivens isn’t the starter anymore right?

  27. wheatnoil says:

    Hearing Mark Giordano's contract extension with CGY is done.— Bob McKenzie (@TSNBobMcKenzie) August 25, 2015

    This is a huge deal for Calgary. I’m curious what the numbers and term will be. He’s already getting up there in age… a long term could end up being crippling down the road. Also, the cap may not be going up and they’ve got a lot of young players to sign as their ELCs expire.

    (Also, how is McKenzie breaking this stuff… isn’t he supposed to be on vacation?)

  28. verdad2.0 says:

    Pouzar,

    My point is why is Scrivens still here?
    Why isn’t Ramo an Oiler?

  29. frjohnk says:

    wheatnoil: This is a huge deal for Calgary. I’m curious what the numbers and term will be. He’s already getting up there in age… a long term could end up being crippling down the road. Also, the cap may not be going up and they’ve got a lot of young players to sign as their ELCs expire.

    (Also, how is McKenzie breaking this stuff… isn’t he supposed to be on vacation?)

    6 years 6.75M

  30. Pouzar says:

    verdad2.0:
    Pouzar,

    My point is why is Scrivens still here?
    Why isn’t Ramo an Oiler?

    Bigger fish to fry than worrying about Scrivens as the #2.
    Let’s start with limiting Captain’s ice time to around 10-12 mins per game and go from there.

  31. Factotum says:

    “Whatever happens this fall and winter, the Scrivens’ have my respect…”

    +1 to this.

    Here’s hoping that Dustin Schwartz can sprinkle some goalie voodoo fairy dust on the Professor this year. I’m cheering like hell for a rebound season for him.

  32. wheatnoil says:

    verdad2.0:
    Pouzar,

    My point is why is Scrivens still here?
    Why isn’t Ramo an Oiler?

    Well, Ramo took $3.8M to go back to Calgary… so the Oilers would’ve had to beat that, one assumes, to make him move. Let’s say $4M. Plus a Scrivens buy-out would cost $767K for two years. So $4.7M is a fair bit to pay for a goalie who was 25th out of 48 goalies in adjusted save percentage (min. 1000 minutes played).

    He’s a fine goalie, but I’m not sure that’s the best bet. If we’re calling out goalies the Oilers could have acquired instead of Anders Nilsson as insurance, Neuvirth had better numbers than Ramo and only signed for $1.5M. He would’ve been a better bet. Reports on Free Agency day were that it was between the Oilers and Philly and the Flyers got him.

  33. Woodguy says:

    verdad2.0:
    Pouzar,

    My point is why is Scrivens still here?
    Why isn’t Ramo an Oiler?

    Ramo’s rank in Adjusted SV%

    13/14 – 33rd
    14/15 – 25th

    That’s not good and nothing you knowingly try to acquire.

  34. Ducey says:

    verdad2.0:
    Why did the OIlers not sign Ramo?
    Again a reluctance to immediately improve?
    Could Scrivens not have been bought out also?

    (Pause)

  35. wheatnoil says:

    frjohnk: 6 years 6.75M

    That’s actually not terrible… I was hoping for worse. Still could go south depending on when Gio falls off the cliff. Contract goes till he’s 38, plus he’s got an injury history. Depending on the cap next year, they may be in tight re-signing Monahan & Gaudreau.

  36. frjohnk says:

    Giordanos deal means that next year, the flames are paying Gio, Brodie, Wideman, Smid ( if he comes of LTIR) Engelland, Hamilton 28.8M

    They have 18.6M tied up with Frolik, Backlund, Raymond, Stajan, Bolling,Bouma and Bennett

    That’s 13 players at 47.4M

    Monahan, Gaudreau, Colbourne, probably push that to 60M for 16 players.

    Need 2 D, 2 goalies and 3 forwards

    They will probably look at getting rid of Wideman, Raymond and getting some value contracts especially if the salary cap stays the same or even drops. Doubt they can sign Hudler.

    That D will be one of the best this next year though

  37. Woodguy says:

    (Pause). Scrivens had one good year (Edmonton traded for him) and the other seasons were poor compared to the rest of the league in terms of adjusted save percentage (link is to Darcy McLeod article).

    For those who don’t like links or couldn’t find the relevant part:

    Scriven’s historical ranking via Adjusted SV%

    11/12 – 51/58 (TOR)
    12/13 – 30/48 (TOR)
    13/14 – 17/55 (LAK/EDM)
    14/15 – 46/48 (EDM)

    Only once did Scrivens have what would be considered a “goo” year.

    In my time looking at a lot of goaltenders’ historical rankings, this tells us that he ran hot for one year and may not have NHL starter level ability.

    Its not just who he plays in front of either.

    In 12/13 Bernier posted the 4th best ASV% in the NHL when Scrivens posted 30th.

    Also,

    If you break Scriven’s rankings during his trade year down it looks like this:

    13/14 – LAK – 5/58 (min 500 min played)
    13/14 – EDM 25/46 (min 500 min played)

    So really, he ran hot for 18 games, which is not unheard of for any goalie.

  38. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: (Pause)

    Well done.

  39. Cameron says:

    frjohnk: 6 years 6.75M

    Just $2.25M more a year than Nikitin

    And only $1.25M a year more than Sekera, for similar term.

  40. wheatnoil says:

    Cameron:
    And only $1.25M a year more than Sekera, for similar term.

    His age probably brought down the cap hit a bit. He’s a steal for the first couple years of the deal, assuming he recovers well from his injury. The last couple years may be a problem, though.

    Overall, I grudgingly admit it’s not a bad deal for Calgary. Age could be a major factor but Giordano’s got a long ways to fall before he’s below replacement and the cap may go up quite a bit by then.

  41. verdad2.0 says:

    Cameron,

    See what inspired management can do for you?

  42. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk,

    They will probably look at getting rid of Wideman, Raymond and getting some value contracts especially if the salary cap stays the same or even drops. Doubt they can sign Hudler.

    With the cap going down its going to be tough to get rid of those two contracts.

    Don’t forget Stajan at $3.125 for 3 more years is an anchor too.

    Like the player, but he’s making twice as much as he should.

  43. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy: Ramo’s rank in Adjusted SV%

    13/14 – 33rd
    14/15 – 25th

    That’s not good and nothing you knowingly try to acquire.

    Ramo was 20th in low danger save %
    31st in medium danger save %
    22nd in high danger save %

    basically average

    he was 1 of my goalie targets, but at the bottom of the list.

    at 3.8M its an overpay.

    Pass

  44. G Money says:

    verdad2.0:
    My point is why is Scrivens still here?
    Why isn’t Ramo an Oiler?

    Like most Flames last year, Ramo posted his best year EVER. His best year ever was sp% of .912 – a below average goalie.

    He is now a career .905 goalie in 122 games.

    Scrivens had his worst year EVER last year.

    He is now a career .905 goalie in 129 games.

    But yeah, let’s sell Scrivens and buy Ramo.

    Because buying high and selling low works great as a strategy. Just great. Proven you might even say.

  45. verdad2.0 says:

    G Money,

    You dismiss the likelihood that Ramo has turned a corner fundamentally in his career.
    His play last year was key to what the Flames achieved.

  46. G Money says:

    wheatnoil: Overall, I grudgingly admit it’s not a bad deal for Calgary. Age could be a major factor but Giordano’s got a long ways to fall before he’s below replacement and the cap may go up quite a bit by then.

    The dollar figure is excellent but the term is likely to be a killer.

    The contract kicks in when Gio is 32.

    Likely that will be an excellent contract for the first two years, an OK contract for the next two years, and a boat anchor the last two years.

    But that’s what happens any time you sign UFA contracts past the age of 30. You’re going to overpay in either term or dollars, or both. Flames did OK in only overpaying on term.

  47. frjohnk says:

    Cameron: Just $2.25M more a year than Nikitin

    And only $1.25M a year more than Sekera, for similar term.

    Gios contract right now is not the problem. Its the Wideman, Stajan, Raymond, Engelland, Smid ( anybody else?) contracts that are the problem for Calgary that will put them into cap crunch. Don’t think they will enter cap hell unless the cap drops significantly.

    While different players fall off the cliff at different times, 34-36 is usually when players fall of the cliff. Sekara at the end of his contract will have just turned 35. Giordano will be close to 38.
    I think 6 years at 6.75M is better than what was previously thought, but it still could hurt at the tail end.

    Edit: I should have said that Giordano will be 38 at the end of his contract, not close to 38.

  48. G Money says:

    verdad2.0,

    No, it wasn’t. It was an unsustainably high sh% and the goaltending of Hiller. That’s the ‘corner’.

  49. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: Sekara at the end of his contract will have just turned 35.

    Stop adding context to the convo. Please and thx.

  50. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Pouzar:
    More McDavid P0rn

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UjhDHSFbXYg

    Bio-steel stick, magnetic puck?

    Was that move softer than it was quick, or quicker than it was soft?

  51. frjohnk says:

    G Money: The dollar figure is excellent but the term is likely to be a killer.
    The contract kicks in when Gio is 32.
    Likely that will be an excellent contract for the first two years, an OK contract for the next two years, and a boat anchor the last two years.

    Gios contract kicks in the 2016-17 season. He turns 33 Oct 2016.

    Like you say, great contract when it starts, most likely a boat anchor at the end.

  52. Ducey says:

    Calgary has $30 million committed to 6 D in 2016-17. That means they need to fit the other 17 players in a $40 million cap.

    They will also have to do new deals for Hudler, Gaudreau, Monahan, and Colborne.

  53. frjohnk says:

    Pouzar: Stop adding context to the convo. Please and thx.

    Whats your address? I’ll be spamming you with Jets stuff.

  54. Pouzar says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel: Bio-steel stick, magnetic puck?

    Was that move softer than it was quick, or quicker than it was soft?

    The initial toe drag was dreamy!

  55. Pouzar says:

    frjohnk: Whats your address?I’ll be spamming you with Jets stuff.

    Right to da Junk Folder she goes!

  56. G Money says:

    IF Ben Scrivens was too closely aligned to Dallas Eakins it might be an issue but if he goes out and plays like he did in 2013-14 those issues wash away.

    I read a comment the other day (Twitter?) that stated that there have been 8 goalie performances (>40 games) over sv% of .930 in the last many years. 7 of those 8 then pitched a .917 the next year.

    Context was Carey Price – he’s the 8th one on that list. Will be interesting to watch next year.

    Regression to the mean can be a real bitch.

    Good news is that it’s not just a negative phenomenon. Regression happens upward too.

    I full expect Ben to have spent the summer working on his weak spots – the biggest issue that I could see from watching him was a lack of concentration at key points (hence the high number of softies given up), and overreacting to the puck.

    The first one could just be part of the natural ebb and flow of mental strength. Humans cycle on an hourly, daily, weekly, monthly, yearly basis. Those cycles are never more obvious than for goalies.

    The second one was probably a result of the combination of the lapses in concentration and the stress that comes from being a starter for the first time in his career. Vicious circle.

    In our look at goalies, Wheat and I found that early career dips in sv% were surprisingly common. Easiest explanation is ‘pressure of being a starter for the first time’. As long as the sv% prior to the dip was OK, most goalies rebounded pretty well.

    Semyon Varlamov, the year before he pitched his ludicrous .927 and hauled the Avs to the playoffs and Roy to the Jack Adams award, pitched a .903.

    I expect Ben will be at least back up to the .910s next year, if not better.

  57. TheOtherJohn says:

    Not commenting on other goalies. Think Talbot is a pretty solid bet. Would have liked any one of Lack, Bernier or Talbot if available at comparable prices. Actually I think Scrivens had a single “good” year in ’13/14 and we traded for him during that season.

    Think we already bought high on Scrivens.

    Scrivens pre All Star break in ’13/14 had 25 gp and a .937 sv %.

    Post All Star break he had 15 gp and a .902 Sv %.

    There was evidence that the wheels had already fallen off the “Scrivens as our starter” story in late February 2014

    Think GMoney is right on Gio’s contract: good contract for 2 years, ok contract for 2 years, bad contact for 2 years. Not sure a boat anchor though.. Also think in bad 2 years he’ll be better than Nikitan at $4.5m

  58. G Money says:

    TheOtherJohn: Also think in bad 2 years he’ll be better than Nikitan at $4.5m

    Probably. Though Nikitin’s story is not yet done. And if those last chapters are as horrible as the first few were, the book gets donated to the used bookstore at the end of the season anyway.

    (Man, I stretched that metaphor past the breaking point, didn’t I)

  59. Bruce McCurdy says:

    frjohnk: Not sure how many goals were a result of this, but it was too many. Clean that up and that would be a major help.

    This one alone was one too many. Third period, tie game, Oilers on the PP against the Canucks, and Scrivens passed the puck to nobody, then sieved in a weak one short side to Derek F. Dorsett while Zack F. Kassian celebrated in the penalty box. 3-2 Canucks, final, in regulation natch.

    This was one of two occasions last season when I slammed & broke my clipboard in frustration while taking notes for game grades. (The other was the OT loss in Calgary when 2 of 3 Oilers on the ice went for a change while Josh Jooris emerged from the penalty box to score the winner.) You’d think I’d be inured to all the losing by now, but gifting wins to the Canucks and Flames will piss me off until the end of time.

  60. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    TCAF believes he will remain TCAF: http://www.nhl.com/ice/news.htm?id=777553

  61. G Money says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    That was f’ing infuriating.

    An Oiler defender on the right, and also some open ice along the boards on the right … so put it off the boards on the left where the only possible player who could retrieve it was a Canuck.

    Strikes me that it’s part of that same pattern of lapses of concentration that also resulted in the regular softies from the blue line. And then once it happens, don’t bear down to make sure you stop the shot.

    Man.

    The good news out of all that is a. McDavid, and b. I gotta think those are fixable problems. Will rather than skill.

  62. TheOtherJohn says:

    Bruce McCurdy,

    I might buy the local narrative that Scrivens is a really smart guy, if he quit trying to handle the puck. Every time he does it I think something interesting may happen.

  63. One-Timer says:

    frjohnk: Scrivens was below average in each of the areas of high, medium and low danger in save %

    All situations
    Overall save%

    EDM…………0.892…(30th)
    Leag Avg…….0.915
    MTL…………0.928…(1st)

    Low Danger Save%
    Scrivens………0.940
    EDM…………0.947..(30th)
    Leag Avg……..0.967
    MTL………….0.977..(1st)

    Med Danger Save%
    Scrivens………0.900
    EDM………….0.892…(30th)
    Leag Avg……..0.925
    MTL…………..0.940..(1st)

    High Danger Save%
    Scrivens………0.806
    CAR….………0.789…(30th)
    EDM..………..0.824…(23rd)
    Leag Avg…….0.834
    NJD…………..0.849…(1st)

    That was putrid, rotten and revolting. It was not pro-level goaltending. Edmonton’s numbers alone deformed the bell curve. We didn’t even deserve to be included in the bell curve.

    Scrivens is a sportsman of integrity, I believe, but it’s like he was “bear rugging for McDavid” or something.

  64. frjohnk says:

    Bruce McCurdy: This one alone was one too many. Third period, tie game, Oilers on the PP against the Canucks, and Scrivens passed the puck to nobody, then sieved in a weak one short side to Derek F. Dorsett while Zack F. Kassian celebrated in the penalty box. 3-2 Canucks, final, in regulation natch.

    This was one of two occasions last season when I slammed & broke my clipboard in frustration while taking notes for game grades. (The other was the OT loss in Calgary when 2 of 3 Oilers on the ice went for a change while Josh Jooris emerged from the penalty box to score the winner.) You’d think I’d be inured to all the losing by now, but gifting wins to the Canucks and Flames will piss me off until the end of time.

    Even my wife remembers that play.
    Thats how bad it was.

  65. Woodguy says:

    One-Timer,

    “bear rugging for McDavid”

    Awesome.

    Gentle Ben’s proclivity to try to play goal from his stomach was infuriating.

  66. RexLibris says:

    The Giordano contract is good for one, maybe two years. After that it is likely to be a bit of an albatross.

    Maybe Giordano become Chelios and plays effective games into his 40s, but history suggests that he’ll hit 35 or 36 and things will drop off precipitously.

    The real killer is the squeeze this puts on the rest of the contracts.

    Russell, Hiller, Ramo, Gaudreau, Monahan, Hudler, Jones and then Bennett’s first post-ELC contract (the first year of which was oh-so-wisely burnt by playing him in the post-season last year) are all going to be coming due very quickly.

    If we ballpark $6.25 million for Hudler, Gaudreau and Monahan each, with slight variations between them coming out to an average thereabouts, that leaves very, very little for the rest of the crew.

    If Calgary wants to build a team with a tremendous defense, league-average goaltending and a one-line offense, I can live with that.

  67. One-Timer says:

    verdad2.0:
    Cameron,

    See what inspired management can do for you?

    This is really, really DSF-ish. Knock it off.

  68. Woodguy says:

    verdad2.0:
    G Money,

    You dismiss the likelihood that Ramo has turned a corner fundamentally in his career.
    His play last year was key to what the Flames achieved.

    The above quote sounds like it could have come straight from @McScoopDog twitter account.

    Are you Mike Winters having fun trolling?

  69. One-Timer says:

    Woodguy,

    In all fairness I was borrowing from Olive.

  70. wheatnoil says:

    http://www.tsn.ca/individual-point-percentage-what-it-is-how-we-can-apply-it-and-how-gms-can-exploit-it-1.350670

    This is a solid article by Travis Yost talking about IPP, which I know Woodguy (and others) have talked about most recently in relation to D prospects, and further back in relation to Taylor Hall’s absurdly high IPP.

    It sparked me to look at this last year’s IPP to see if anyone was unsustainably high or low.

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&pos=forwards&minutes=200&teamid=12&type=individual&sort=IPP&sortdir=DESC

    One name jumped out at me. Anton Lander. An IPP of 84.6% is at a Sidney Crosby level. It’s worth keeping that mind as we project his point totals going forward. That number is likely to drop, so his line will have to get more chances if he’s going to maintain his offense.

  71. TheOtherJohn says:

    RexLibris,

    Brian Campbell is 36 and playing pretty effective top 4 minutes and I could see Gio follow that path as well

  72. rickithebear says:

    HSC Save%
    Price:
    14-15 .8650 6.54 HS/60
    13-14 .8477 6.57 HS/60
    12-13 .8227 5.77 HS/60
    11-12 .8430 6.98 HS/60
    10-11 .8431 7.49 HS/60

    DD:
    14-15 .8648 6.13 HS/60
    13-14 .8095 Eakins 7.12 HS/60
    12-13 .8672 8.66 HS/60
    11-12 .8663 8.47 HS/60

    Talbot:
    14-15 .8617 7.7 HS/60
    13-14 .8687 5.375 HS/60

    Lundquist:
    14-15 .8320 5.74 HS/60
    13-14 .8460 6.86 HS/60
    12-13 .8729 6.0 HS/60
    11-12 .8591 6.35 HS/60
    10-11 .8412 6.80 HS/60

    Nilsson:
    13-14 .8065
    11-12 .8571

    Scrivens
    14-15 .8101 6.56 HS/60
    13-14 .8376 6.81 HS/60
    12-13 .7727 6.31 HS/60
    11-12 .8617 8.92 HS/60

    Fasth:
    14-15 .8412 7.94

    BryZ:
    13-14 .8639 8.30 HS/60

    KHB:
    12-13 .9205 9.07 HS/60
    11-12 .8386 8.26 HS/60
    10-11 .8136 7.99 HS/60

    Quick:
    14-15 .8431 5.68 HS/60
    13-14 .8196 5.67 HS/60
    12-13 .8040 5.80 HS/60
    11-12 .8443 5.48 HS/60
    10-11 .8624 6.10 HS/60

    Jones:
    14-15 .8281 5.08 HS/60
    13-14 .9123 7.24 HS/60

    Bernier:
    14-15 .8445 7.68 HS/60
    13-14 .8386 7.85 HS/60
    12-13 .8382 5.43 HS/60
    11-12 .7732 5.06 HS/60
    10-11 .8160 5.57 HS/60

    Reimer:
    14-15 .8379 9.09 HS/60
    13-14 .8349 7.75 HS/60
    12-13 .8563 8.24 HS/60
    11-12 .8253 7.64 Hs/60
    10-11 .8734 7.79 HS/60

    Holtby:
    14-15 .8686 6.37 HS/60
    13-14 .8387 6.75 HS/60
    12-13 .8544 6.41 HS/60

    When you start to do the variance in EVGA/60 from HS/60 rates and HS Sv%

    Talbot 14-15 .8617 7.70 HS/60 is 1.06 G/60
    Scrivens14-15 .8101 6.56 HS/60 is 1.25 G/60
    Fasth 14-15 .8412 7.94 HS/60 is 1.26 G/60
    DD 13-14 .8095 7.12 HS/60 is 1.36 G/60
    Bryz 13-14 .8639 8.30 HS/60 is 1.13 G/60
    KHB 12-13 .9205 9.07 HS/60 is .72 G/60 best High Save % last 5 seasons

    if our d is letting in 7.5-8 HS/60 the best Elite HS Save% cannot make the diffrence needed.
    You need a above mean HS Save5 and low HS/60 rates from your D.

    NJ HS/60 rates were driven by the Best 1st comp D in the game. Fayne.
    NJ 13-14 5.04 HS/60
    NJ 12-13 5.04 HS/60
    NJ 11-12 5.70 HS/60

    What becomes obvious is you can divide a d’s HSCA/60 by 45% to get a quick rough idea of the HS/60 rate.

    Now we have the Best HS save% golaie in the game last 2 years. Talbot! .8652
    We are likely to find out if Nilsson is the .857 goalie or the .8065

  73. Cameron says:

    RexLibris:
    The Giordano contract is good for one, maybe two years. After that it is likely to be a bit of an albatross.

    Maybe Giordano become Chelios and plays effective games into his 40s, but history suggests that he’ll hit 35 or 36 and things will drop off precipitously.

    The real killer is the squeeze this puts on the rest of the contracts.

    Russell, Hiller, Ramo, Gaudreau, Monahan, Hudler, Jones and then Bennett’s first post-ELC contract (the first year of which was oh-so-wisely burnt by playing him in the post-season last year) are all going to be coming due very quickly.

    If we ballpark $6.25 million for Hudler, Gaudreau and Monahan each, with slight variations between them coming out to an average thereabouts, that leaves very, very little for the rest of the crew.

    If Calgary wants to build a team with a tremendous defense, league-average goaltending and a one-line offense, I can live with that.

    Subtract;
    Wideman, Raymond, Engelland (please!), Bollig, and Russell, and there will be more than enough cap space to re-sign Hudler, and get the new core locked up long term.

    Gio’s contract will be good to great value for 2/3rds of it’s length.

  74. Pouzar says:

    Cameron: Gio’s contract will be good to great value for 2/3rds of it’s length.

    I really hope there are no old posts of you pissing and moaning about the Ebs/Nuge/Hall contracts.
    But I will look anyway.

  75. Cameron says:

    Pouzar: I really hope there are no old posts of you pissing and moaning about the Ebs/Nuge/Hall contracts.
    But I will look anyway.

    I believe you will find I endorsed them as being forward thinking. I am also on record hating how Montreal played ‘hardball’ with Subban with his bridge deal.

  76. LadiesloveSmid says:

    verdad2.0:
    Why did the OIlers not sign Ramo?
    Again a reluctance to immediately improve?
    Could Scrivens not have been bought out also?

    did you want to spend, at the very least, 4M on a guy with 74 average-below average games under his belt? plus the Scrivens buyout? they’re tight enough to the cap as is.

    I get wanting a #1D. Weird approach, but ok. This one is just dumb. Ramo is not better than what they have.

  77. Woodguy says:

    Cameron,

    Subtract;
    Wideman, Raymond, Engelland (please!), Bollig, and Russell, and there will be more than enough cap space to re-sign Hudler, and get the new core locked up long term.

    Easy eh?

    I bet NHL GM’s will be lined up 10 deep to take all 5 shitty contracts off Treliving’s hands.

    “Overpaid bums? Yes please!!!”

  78. rickithebear says:

    The guys on 960 Sportsnet seem to think hudler will not be resigned.
    I guess Hudlers 25 EVG and 60 EVP are replaceable.

  79. SwedishPoster says:

    rickithebear,

    These are interesting numbers, not so much for what it says about goalies, doesn’t really give a clear and consistent picture imo, but for what it says about high danger shots as we calculate then today. Look at the “Eakins-numbers”, the HS/60 are kept low, in Dubnyks case are cut way down compared to the pre-Eakins, but the Sv% plummets. Same goes for Scrivens, HS/60 are similar to his LA #s but his Sv% crashes.
    This makes it pretty obvious that all high danger shots are far from created equal. We knew this but this makes it clear. Something was way off with Eakins D and these numbers show it. Scrivens should bounce back, not likely to elite level, but he’s not the garbage heap he was under Eakins so called tactics.

  80. Gerta Rauss says:

    verdad2.0: Could Scrivens not have been bought out also?

    Scrivens salary level prevented the Oilers from buying him out(minimum was $2.75M iirc)*

    The Scrivens play was consistent with the rest of Chia’s summer-take what the market would give you. Don’t force anything.

    Talbot is the bet-if Scrivens has a poor season he won’t be with the Oilers organization for long.

    *edit-the 2nd buyout window

  81. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Giordano contract should be good value for the first 2 years.

    He’ll be 33 when he plays the first game of that contract. Isn’t typically when players trend upwards or even stagnate. Hasn’t played more than 65 games in a season since 2011.

    As for the 1.25M more than Sekera. Let’s make contextless comments like that in 3 years when Hall is making 750K less than 35YO Gio.

    Anyone know what effect bicep surgery might have on him?

  82. Bruce McCurdy says:

    kinger_OIL: this is a work in progress roster: in the best case, Captain, Scrivens NN get traded in season…

    Woodguy:
    Cameron,

    Subtract;
    Wideman, Raymond, Engelland (please!), Bollig, and Russell, and there will be more than enough cap space to re-sign Hudler, and get the new core locked up long term.

    Easy eh?

    I bet NHL GM’s will be lined up 10 deep to take all 5 shitty contracts off Treliving’s hands.

    “Overpaid bums?Yes please!!!”

    No teams will be able to fit those Calgary bums under their own salary caps after the line-up of teams desperately looking for crappy contracts has already graciously traded for Ference, Nikitin, & Scrivens.

    Or maybe we can just adopt Verdad 2.0’s approach and hand-wave away any offending contracts as if they weren’t legally binding.

  83. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy: Or maybe we can just … hand-wave away any offending contracts as if they weren’t legally binding.

    You know, if Katz really wanted to do that he could always look to buy an expansion franchise in the KHL.

    “legally binding” is something of a euphemism over there, I believe.

  84. Cameron says:

    Woodguy:
    Cameron,

    Subtract;
    Wideman, Raymond, Engelland (please!), Bollig, and Russell, and there will be more than enough cap space to re-sign Hudler, and get the new core locked up long term.

    Easy eh?

    I bet NHL GM’s will be lined up 10 deep to take all 5 shitty contracts off Treliving’s hands.

    “Overpaid bums?Yes please!!!”

    Not so hard really:

    Wideman, despite his ticket, will have value in trade (especially after a career best offensive year)
    Ditto Russell, who emerged as a legit shot blocking 2nd pair guy, and is just entering his prime years.
    Smid moves to LTIR forever, or retires.
    Stajan is a classic trade deadline exit to a team looking for depth at C heading in to the playoffs.
    Ditching Raymond, Engelland and Bollig may take some sorcery, but they only have two years left on their deals.

  85. Adam Wu says:

    verdad2.0:
    G Money,

    You dismiss the likelihood that Ramo has turned a corner fundamentally in his career.
    His play last year was key to what the Flames achieved.

    You would bet $4.5 million on that?

    Even MacT only bet $3.5 million on Scrivens basically doing the same thing after 2013-14.

  86. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Dang – missed Yost again. To the archives!

    Hudler with a 90 IPP? He must have really turned a corner last year! Possibly two of them!

    http://www.tsn.ca/individual-point-percentage-what-it-is-how-we-can-apply-it-and-how-gms-can-exploit-it-1.350670

  87. RexLibris says:

    Cameron: Not so hard really:

    Wideman, despite his ticket, will have value in trade (especially after a career best offensive year)
    Ditto Russell, who emerged as a legit shot blocking 2nd pair guy, and is just entering his prime years.
    Smid moves to LTIR forever, or retires.
    Stajan is a classic trade deadline exit to a team looking for depth at C heading in to the playoffs.
    Ditching Raymond, Engelland and Bollig may take some sorcery, but they only have two years left on their deals.

    Wideman has a full NMC and a $5.25 million cap hit with another year to go.

    Maybe they move him this year, but the money and NMC are serious hurdles to overcome and could seriously impact his value. Also, his sh%, while usually a little high, was above even that last year. If he regresses towards his average this year, which is entirely plausible, he becomes a less-attractive acquisition.

    Russell had a great year last year. He has been underwhelming prior to that. He is not a difficult asset to remove, but may be a slight more expensive one to retain.

    Smid has to be on the roster for a day before he can move to LTIR. Maybe he retires, but I’d suspect not and that means at least one more year of a $3.5 million cap hit.

    Stajan does look like a good veteran player to a playoff contender candidate. In the spring of 2018. Until then he has a limited no-trade clause and is a $3.25 cap hit for another two years after this coming season. I’m not saying there isn’t a GM dumb enough to trade for that, but acting as though it is fait-accompli is ridiculous.

    Raymond has the same limited no-trade clause, and is $100K cheaper with one less year on his contract. If he rebounds this year, maybe they can move him. If he doesn’t, then he becomes a buyout candidate next June.

    Bollig and Engelland are boat anchors. Bollig could move because he is relatively inexpensive and maybe an Eastern team doesn’t know how bad he is. Engelland is Treliving’s albatross to wear for another year or two at least.

  88. Doug McLachlan says:

    Cameron: Not so hard really:Wideman, despite his ticket, will have value in trade (especially after a career best offensive year)Ditto Russell, who emerged as a legit shot blocking 2nd pair guy, and is just entering his prime years.Smid moves to LTIR forever, or retires.Stajan is a classic trade deadline exit to a team looking for depth at C heading in to the playoffs.Ditching Raymond, Engelland and Bollig may take some sorcery, but they only have two years left on their deals.

    Calgary has a crunch next season, then they should be good to go. Hudler may be a painful decision but otherwise they are good.

    By overpaying Ramo and Hiller on a one year deal they may be in a position to get a value deal through the desert next year and then clear sailing with the anchors fall away. Calgary should be fine cap-wise.

    So far, and the summer isn’t over yet, the only “panic” trading that we have seen in this summer of cap hell was from Boston. And in dealing Lucic to LA the Hamilton dump looks less like a cap move and more like a (insane) player-management decision.

    Chicago had to deal Saad and Sharp and are still facing difficulties as they plan how to resign Seabrook but if Chicago could dance through their cap-minefield then teams with much more flexibility like Calgary should be able to do so as well.

    What interests me about the Gio deal is how team-friendly it is. That’s a great deal for the Flames even if the term is an issue (any info on whether if the actual dollars drop off near the end?) but it shows how much of a haircut some players are prepared to take to ensure that there is enough $ to keep the band together. He’s a UFA and he left at least $1/yr on the table had he gone to next summer. Contrast with Toews and Kane plan, different players and different teams but the fact is that had both even agreed to $1.5M less Saad or Sharp would be a Hawk next year.

  89. LadiesloveSmid says:

    https://public.tableau.com/profile/spencer.mann#!/vizhome/PassingDataForwards/Compare

    take a look at Purcell’s passing data. He isn’t a headless chicken in the D zone like Yakcity. Very good at distributing the puck. If he can just make an outlet pass to two of the fastest players in the game in Hall and McD, then he’ll do just fine there IMO

  90. rickithebear says:

    SJ def system generates low HSCA rates and D. Boyle; Vlasic; Braun; Murray; Irwin
    the hope is we see the same Def performance from the d coached by Hitchcock; Ruff; Sutter; Deboer

    TOI – Comp – HSCA/60 = HS/60 = Talbot G/60based on .8617 -> Scrivens G/60 based on .8101
    Fayne
    NJ 16.00 TOI 1st 10.05 HSCA/60 = 4.52 HS/60 = .625 G/60 -> .86 G/60
    EDM 14.8 TOI 1st 17.16 = 7.72 = 1.07 G/60 -> 1.47 G/60

    Sekera
    LA 2nd 11.41 = 5.13 HS/60 = .71 G/60 -> .97 G/60
    BUF Ruff 16.00 TOI 1st 14.36 = 6.46 = .89 G/60 -> 1.22 G/60
    CAR 17.84 TOI 1st 17.80 = 8.01 = 1.11 G/60 -> 1.52 G/60
    BUF Rolston 17.21 TOI 1st 18.66 = 8.40 = 1.16 G/60 -> 1.60 G/60

    Nikitin
    CBJ 16.01 2nd 12.92 = 5.81 = .80 G/60 -> 1.10 G/60
    EDM 15.80 1st 15.80 = 7.11 = .98 G/60 -> 1.35 G/60

    Gryba
    OTT 13.38 2nd 13.99 = 6.30 = .87 G/60 -> 1.20 G/60
    OTT 17.26 2nd 15.81 = 7.11 = .98 G/60 -> 1.35 G/60

    Reinhart
    NYI 3rd 16.75 HSCA/60 = 7.54 = 1.04 G/60 -> 1.43 G/60
    NYI w/ NHL D 14.91 = 6.71 = .93 G/60 -> 1.27 G/60

    Klefbom
    Edm 18.94 TOI 2nd 17.10 = 7.70 = 1.06 G/60 -> 1.46 G/60

    Ference 1st/2nd 17.13 = 7.71 = 1.07 G/60 -> 1.47 G/60
    J Schultz
    first 2 years 3rd 18.80 = 8.46 = 1.17 G/60 -> 1.61 G/60
    last year 16.78 = 7.55 = 1.04 G/60 -> 1.43 G/60
    Petry 2nd 17.77 = 8.00 = 1.11 G/60 -> 1.52 G/60
    Marincin 1st 18.83 = 8.47 = 1.17 G/60 -> 1.61 G/60

    Best HS Save% goalie and improved Def system from new coach and Def Asst Coach.

    MacT added
    Fayne #1 HSCA/60 d in Game and Nikitin a history of top 30 HSCA/60 rate at 2nd comp.

    Sather stated it was MacT previous dealings for Talbot and Old boy history that made him trade Talbot to Edmonton.

    PC added
    Reinhart
    Gryba
    Sekera

    There was a clear method to MacT and PC’s action.

  91. rickithebear says:

    SwedishPoster:
    rickithebear,

    These are interesting numbers, not so much for what it says about goalies, doesn’t really give a clear and consistent picture imo, but for what it says about high danger shots as we calculate then today. Look at the “Eakins-numbers”, the HS/60 are kept low, in Dubnyks case are cut way down compared to the pre-Eakins, but the Sv% plummets. Same goes for Scrivens, HS/60 are similar to his LA #s but his Sv% crashes.
    This makes it pretty obvious that all high danger shots are far from created equal. We knew this but this makes it clear. Something was way off with Eakins D and these numbers show it. Scrivens should bounce back, not likely to elite level, but he’s not the garbage heap he was under Eakins so called tactics.

    Open hole – Not open Hole.

  92. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:
  93. rickithebear says:

    Hamilton 1st 14.32 HSCA/60
    Brodie 1st 14.75 HSCA/60
    Giordano 1st 15.14 HSCA/60 6.75M
    Engelland 3rd 16.03
    Wideman 2nd 18.07 HSCA/60
    Russell 2nd 19.12 HSCA/60

    14-15
    Ortio .8571 6.78 HS/60
    Hiller .8531 7.03 HS/60
    Ramo .8438 7.99 HS/60
    13-14
    Berra .8563 6.60 HS/60
    Ramo .8231 7.33 HS/60
    Ortio .7581 7.01 HS/60
    Macdonald .7463 6.16 HS/60

  94. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Agreed, I think the Gio contract is a good one for the Flames for sure. The fact is, short of him falling apart this season, he would have gotten a lot more than that in free agency. So if you aren’t happy having him at 6.75/season you are basically saying you’re comfortable getting rid of him at the age of 33. Given that he’s your captain, your best player, and for the last couple years has been a Norris contender, that would be a very ballsy move for a manager to make.

    I don’t see how they could have done better.

  95. Bag of Pucks says:

    Like Dubnyk before him, it looked to me like Scrivens wilted under the pressure once he was officially anointed as the starter with the contract to match.

    I think the reasons ‘goalies are voodoo’ lives as meme is because the position is so mentally demanding and it’s really difficult to predict those individuals who can mentally rise to the challenge on a consistent, game in and game out, basis. For that reason, the goaltending coach may be the most impactful positional coach because having a good one that can keep your G talent on an even keel (confident AND relaxed) is worth his weight in goal. Ranford seems to be doing well on that front.

    In interviews, Scrivens struck me as the overachiever type. He puts a ton of pressure on himself, and I suspect when things start to roll badly, that pressure intensifies.

    Over history, there seems to be 3 personality types that succeed as elite tenders.

    1) The ‘hockey’s just a game’ types. Grant Fuhr, Martin Brodeur. Carey Price. Just having fun playing the game without a care in the world

    2) The uber confident ‘a-hole’ Roy, Belfour, Barasso. They don’t stress over weaknesses cos it never occurs to them they may actually have one.

    3) The ‘basket cases’ Sawchuk, Hall, Hextall

    I think #1 is the ideal scenario for Scrivens. He just needs to relax, go out a play hockey and let the chips fall where they may. Quite possible that coming off the bench to relieve Talbot restores that confidence. Wouldn’t be surprised if he pushes Talbot this year for mins.

    Healthy competition!

  96. Adam Wu says:

    One always talks about how a poor defence allowing too many high quality chances can hurt a G’s confidence, but what does a G whiffing on low quality chances do to a D corps’ confidence? If they have to start worrying about preventing shot attempts they would normally allow, confident their goaltender can safely handle them, how likely are they going to end up getting drawn out of position to do so. It seems the natural consequence of this is more tire fires in the D zone, and that is exactly what happened to the Oiler’s D these last 2 seasons.

  97. SwedishPoster says:

    Bag of Pucks,

    There’s a fourth one. The completely confident guys. Lundqvist, Rinne, Quick. Not assholes or nutjobs just very aware if their ability and extremely competitive. To me it seems the fourth type takes longer to arrive, which makes sense since a collected confidence takes some maturing. Unless you’re king Henrik and is Born handsome, charming and talented. The little punk.
    Other than that I agree fully.

  98. "Steve Smith" says:

    rickithebear: Open hole – Not open Hole.

    Truer words, Dude…truer words.

  99. Woodguy says:

    Walking around the ASU campus today because my daughter wanted a shake from Steak and Shake.

    Good thing I have shades on.

    ASU’s reputation of having the most attractive student body is well earned.

    Lordy.

  100. Woodguy says:

    Fasth clearly out-played Scrivens in pre-season last year and yet Eakins made Scrivens the starter.

    I think that’s where his problems started.

    Never had the chance to try work out his issues, but had to go into the games while struggling.

  101. fifthcartel says:

    Stauffer mentioned Franson twice on his show today, I mean it was pretty casual, but it’s the off-season so I thought I’d post it here.

    Said something like “If you could sign Franson cheap on a 1 year or 2, would you do it?”, and Bob and Spec both agreed they should.

    Also said Franson may be looking somewhere where he’ll get opportunity to play/and put up numbers on the powerplay.

  102. Doug McLachlan says:

    fifthcartel,

    The PP is interesting. While we all love to dump on him, I suspect Schultz will look pretty competent on a McLellan PP so he’s on the top unit, right side.

    If, as I believe has been speculated, that McLellan overloads the PP with 4 forwards then Franson’s PP time would be on the second unit, also on the right side.

    I’m not opposed to signing him based on the advanced stats – if the $ and term work.

    I still think he finds his way to Boston but if he’s prepared to come here for a value contract – because that’s all we can offer right now having not bought out Ference or Nikitin – then fair enough. You can always try and put Nikitin into the AHL and free up at least $950K (or use some sort of Lou-magic and have his contract go into some quasi-Euro fog).

    I do think that there is another shoe to drop for Chia’s plan on D but not sure what it is. If Nurse and Reinhart can be pushed to the AHL because of quality in front of them – as LT says, MUSIC.

  103. Stelio Kontos (Formerly Zangetsu-Formerly Thinker) says:

    verdad2.0,

    Henceforth I will be calling you Captain Ho Li Fuk.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=17GbGmDORwk

  104. G Money says:

    Adam Wu,

    I believe this is correct.

    For all the noise about how our D has affected our G, I think the longer established connection is the reverse.

    Good G allow defenses to play with more confidence and therefore better.

    I fully expect that this coming year, if Talbot (or a resurgent Scriv) can actually ‘fix’ the goalkeeping, we’ll see a benefit (over and above roster changes) in the effectiveness of the D.

    No stats (yet) to back that up, but certainly I think a sturdy long-term observation.

  105. Bag of Pucks says:

    SwedishPoster:
    Bag of Pucks,

    There’s a fourth one. The completely confident guys. Lundqvist, Rinne, Quick. Not assholes or nutjobs just very aware if their ability and extremely competitive. To me it seems the fourth type takes longer to arrive, which makes sense since a collected confidence takes some maturing. Unless you’re king Henrik and is Born handsome, charming and talented. The little punk.
    Other than that I agree fully.

    I have it on a good authority that Quick is an ‘a-hole’ of the highest order!

    Fully agreed with everything else you’ve said here.

  106. Bag of Pucks says:

    Woodguy:
    Walking around the ASU campus today because my daughter wanted a shake from Steak and Shake.

    Good thing I have shades on.

    ASU’s reputation of having the most attractive student body is well earned.

    Lordy.

    A post like this demands photographic evidence. Sounds like the reason Snapchat was invented.

  107. fifthcartel says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    That’s true re: Schultz but I wonder if they would value a big shot over Schultz. But I agree on the defense doesn’t feel finished, I think they’ll be one or two moving out of town and maybe another defensemen coming in even.

  108. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Bag of Pucks: A post like this demands photographic evidence. Sounds like the reason Snapchat was invented.

    Older gentleman taking pics of young women on campus – what could go wrong?

  109. Drew says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel: Older gentleman taking pics of young women on campus – what could go wrong?

    i Just got home from a holiday in Kelowna, i had to make myself look away and not be that older guy (creeper) and there was some guy taking pics at the pool. no issues there.

  110. LadiesloveSmid says:

    fifthcartel:
    Stauffer mentioned Franson twice on his show today, I mean it was pretty casual, but it’s the off-season so I thought I’d post it here.

    Said something like “If you could sign Franson cheap on a 1 year or 2, would you do it?”, and Bob and Spec both agreed they should.

    Also said Franson may be looking somewhere where he’ll get opportunity to play/and put up numbers on the powerplay.

    and Spector mentions Schlemko as another Dman in that skill group *rolls eyes*

    Bob’s worth is totally nulled out with numb nuts on the show.

    Is Franson at 1 year 3M possible? how cheap would he have to be? Schultz might have to go

  111. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Drew: some guy taking pics at the pool

    Well I’ll stick to mirrored, wrap-around shades, and not following the lead of ‘some guy at the pool’, if you don’t mind.

  112. Woodguy says:

    Bag of Pucks: A post like this demands photographic evidence. Sounds like the reason Snapchat was invented.

    Wife was with us too.

    Didn’t dare.

  113. Woodguy says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel: Older gentleman taking pics of young women on campus – what could go wrong?

    Yeah I wouldn’t seem creepy at all.

    “Excuse me Miss? Can you please walk by me again?”

  114. Mr DeBakey says:

    verdad2.0: Why did the OIlers not sign Ramo?

    Ramo who?

  115. v4ance says:

    Just looked at Gio on hockeydb.

    Last 3 non-lockout years, he’s missed an average of 20 games a season or 25% of each and every full 82 game season. It made me think of the study that showed that a previous injury history is a great predictor of a future chance of an injury for NHL players.

    Gio’s style is more rugged than finesse defencemen like Lidstrom or Brian Campbell. I don’t predict he’ll age well. I see one good year of the extension, 2 okay years and 3 boat anchor years when his body breaks down precipitously.

    Oh and people who proclaim we need “proven” goaltending are confusing “proven” with affordable, available, or quality goaltending. The best time to get a star goalie is BEFORE they are proven. Just like how Colorado lucked into Varlamov or Calgary into Kiprusoff or Boston into Tim Thomas. That or hope an idiot GM like Milbury or Gillis trades you a starter but then there are only so many idiot GMs around before they get turfed for being stupid.

  116. godot10 says:

    Woodguy:
    Fasth clearly out-played Scrivens in pre-season last year and yet Eakins made Scrivens the starter.

    I think that’s where his problems started.

    Never had the chance to try work out his issues, but had to go into the games while struggling.

    Exactly. What was designed by MacT to be 1A and 1B, became coach’s pet vs. the shunned.

  117. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    She puts her auspicious health down to being a vegetarian since she was 17 and the fact she has recently given up smoking. “Was it hard?” she ponders. “Well, it took about 40 years thinking about it and one day to do it.”

    That might even make for a good Tambi tattoo.

    ———

    What I’ve gleaned from disparate sources is that the male brain has plenty of spatial modelling capacity, but our visual perceptions travel through a relatively thin straw (compared to women, who process facial nuances in a much briefer blink of time).

    Men: Small straw, large drink.

    Women: Large straw, modest drink.

    Of course, this totally backfires under regimes of supervised ogling, when the supervision can ogle your ogle twice as fast as you can ogle to satisfaction.

    Perhaps Braque came up with his cubism thing for precisely this reason. Where the eye can’t dwell, it must piece-wise assemble.

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca