THE 2015-16 OILERS: MUSIC! (BUT NOT YET BALANCED)

The 2015-16 Oilers are a marriage of clusters (or possibly constellations). The future is absolutely the McDavid cluster, but for this season, the Hall cluster will push the river.

YEAR-OVER-YEAR

oilers comparables 2014-15-16This is a massive improvement, historically unlikely to be honest. I’ve gone over the numbers and it comes down to four things:

  • Connor freaking McDavid.
  • The goaltending last season (and before) was simply awful. Seriously.
  • Taylor Hall is about to enter his prime, Jordan Eberle is already there and Nuge is close.
  • Todd McLellan is the new coach (and of course he’s bringing his power-play brain).

You can counter “defense, dummy!” and you’re right, there are major issues. That said, if the Oilers added a real NHL defenseman today I’d call them playoff bound. A team at +6 GF-GA one year ago would have finished No. 10 overall in the Western Conference and I do believe this team (as it stands) is not a playoff club. I also believe (as we’ve discussed) Peter Chiarelli will be aggressive in upgrading the roster mid-season. One final item: Connor McDavid changes everything. I’ve aimed for reasonable here but he could blast off and that means playoffs, awards and a new day dawning basically overnight. It’s a fabulous dream, but we’re currently tracking reasonable. In regard to McDavid, that’s a very difficult find.

THE MCDAVID CLUSTER

mcdavid clusterThese are the under-22’s and really we’re just seeing the tip of the iceberg in every case. Yakupov’s three years obscure his youth, but here we see him in a more natural view. Connor McDavid is placed at about .9 points-per-game and believe me it’s a guess.

THE HALL CLUSTER

hall clusterThis is an extremely valuable group of players. Hall—Nuge—Eberle could perform magic through the end of the decade and beyond, and may well do it together. Sweden gifts us Oscar Klefbom, who should be a major piece and could play a feature role this season. Anton Lander looks like a role player plus a little more and if the Jan-WHC’s Lander returns this fall, we’ll need to revise the wording.

Schultz is a heavy bet from the organization, a puck moving blue who looks to be heading to an early career crossroads. I included Gazdic here because that’s where he fits based on what little we know about team dynamic.

I know that many of you tire of my love of Taylor Hall’s game but for me, if healthy, this is the season we see him absolutely scorch the opposition. He’s matured, he’s so very gifted, and if those knees are even close to okay this is going to be something else.

THE VETERAN CLUSTER

veteran clusterThis would have been called ‘the actual NHL players cluster’ a couple of years ago, but the Hall group has matured and are veterans, too. There are several significant talents here, I’d point out Benoit Pouliot, Andrej Sekera, Mark Fayne and Matt Hendricks as being important to the season ahead. If Eric Gryba can help, it would make a world of difference.

THE GOALIE CLUSTER

goalies clusterThese are the goalies. The group lacks NHL experience but they’re also not a young group either. If things begin poorly, don’t be surprised if we see a trade for a veteran G.

THE 2015-16 OILERS

  • Final record: 82GP, 41-30-11 93PTS
  • Finish: No. 10 in the Western Conference, No. 19 overall (draft No. 12 for 2016 draft)
  • All-Star Team: Taylor Hall (2nd All-Star LW)
  • Calder Trophy: Connor McDavid
  • Traded by deadline: Nikita Nikitin, Ben Scrivens, at least one AHL defenseman

I hope you enjoyed the RE series for players, the next few days will see executives, ownership and a bonus RE. Stay tuned!

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114 Responses to "THE 2015-16 OILERS: MUSIC! (BUT NOT YET BALANCED)"

  1. frjohnk says:

    Really enjoyed this series LT. Very well done.

    Cant wait for the RE playoff edition.

  2. Woodguy says:

    I hope you enjoyed the RE series for players, the next few days will see executives, ownership and a bonus RE. Stay tuned!

    Thanks for all the hard work on this series LT.

    Makes August bearable for us.

  3. John Chambers says:

    There’s little to dispute in your analysis, but IMO the season comes down to three key players:

    1) Talbot, obviously. He’s either ready to be a starting goalie and we get to follow a playoff race, or he looks wobbly and we’re drafting in the 4-8 range.
    2) Schultz. I’m hoping for an actual improvement with boxcars to match, but he could go Andy Delmore. This player could play in the All Star game or lose his seat on the bus to Griffin Reinhart.
    3) Nail. Can he crush goals on McDavid’s wing? I bet he can. Can he learn to play a reasonable defensive game? Nail won’t be an Oiler this time next year if he can’t.

  4. dangilitis says:

    Here, here. I’ve been quiet but have read every post. I think RE has to be the way to go this season, more than ever.

  5. delooper says:

    This E.Net guy has some good underlying numbers. How many games has he played?

  6. Snowman says:

    Just a fantastic series LT. Great “discussions” with your alter ego. Great musical selections. Really enjoyed this series.

  7. PhrankLee says:

    It was the RE series that got me into this blog. Excellent job and thank you for being so damn productive.

  8. Pouzar says:

    Andrew Ference doesn’t believe there are changes coming to Edmonton’s captaincy.

    “One of the first conversations I had with Todd (McLellan, Edmonton’s new coach) was about that,” said Ference. “I brought it up … I like things out in the open. I don’t like walking on eggshells or awkward moments, player to coach, player to GM. This isn’t a vanity project. We should want everybody pulling on the same rope for the Oilers.” Ference has been the captain for the last two seasons and he’ll be the oldest player on the team at the age of 36.

    Source: Edmonton Journal

    Aug 26 – 10:20 AM

  9. bassguy says:

    Hi LT..yes, agree with everyone here…what a great load of work you have put out and let us in on..inching our way to the season thanks for the hockey buzz..I will definitely be hitting the paypal!!, bassguy

  10. frjohnk says:

    Don’t know if I posted the complete numbers from last year that I kept as summer is busy for me as always. Relevant to this post. So here they are

    Total Shots on Net From the Perimeter Per 60
    Edmonton….12.7 (Shots For)
    Edmonton….12.59 (Shots Allowed)
    League Av…13.45

    Total Shots on Net From Medium Danger Area Per 60
    Edmonton….8.00 (Shots For)
    Edmonton….8.24 (Shots Allowed)
    League Av…7.98

    Total Shots on Net From the High Danger Area Per 60
    Edmonton…..7.76 (Shots For)
    Edmonton….9.11 (Shots Allowed)
    League Av….8.37

    I will track this years games data again and see how the team compares to last year.

  11. Woodguy says:

    I think the 3rd place team in the Pacific could finish 9th in the Conference via points.

    Something like this:

    STL
    NAS
    CHI
    MIN
    WIN
    DAL

    All have more points than the 3rd place team in the Pacific.

    ANA and LAK are 1 and 2 in the Pacific.

    Given how the playoff seedings are handed out, the 3rd place Pacific team makes the playoffs and the 6th place Central team doesn’t even though they have more points.

    If :

    -VAN’s goaltending craters
    -CAL doesn’t have another Opposite George Whack-a-Mole season (unreal SV% when they can’t score and 11%SH when they can’t save)
    -SJS don’t cotton to DeBoer’s low event NJD style
    -ARI stops beating the Oilers in the most improbable ways

    Then there’s a real chance the Oiler pick up the 3rd place spot in the Pacific.

    I think it will be close.

    Since you have them at 10th, I think that you have them close too.

  12. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy,

    I think there is a chance that Dallas finds a way to be a bad team despite all logic and reason suggesting otherwise.

  13. John Chambers says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Woodguy,

    I think there is a chance that Dallas finds a way to be a bad team despite all logic and reason suggesting otherwise.

    Agree with you about the Stars. All of the talent but not enough desire to bring it 82 times over the season. If they’re out of the hunt mid-year Lindy Ruff will have coached his last NHL game.

  14. TheOrangeDesk says:

    I see the west being very unpredictable.
    I have no idea how SJ will do, they lost their coach and didn’t do so great last year either.
    Chicago looks to be set up for a bad year, Stanley cup hangover plus losing Sharp, Oduya, possibly Kane and possibly Seabrook at some point.
    Minnesota won’t go on a crazy Dubnyk run again this year.
    Calgary and Vancouver are set up to fall big time.
    LAK missed playoffs last year and by the end of the season they certainly weren’t the dominating team we were used to.

    Oilers have a great opportunity here, with a hot start they could really take off.

  15. Bar_Qu says:

    LT, I love the RE series and it is great to be able to put everything into a proper, balanced perspective. I’m sure you enjoy doing it, but it looks like a tremendous amount of work. Thank you, sir.

    Woodguy,

    That’s a lot of “ifs” which imo makes the possibility of playoffs at best unlikely, but certainly a goal to strive for. I think reasonable here is assuming 4th in the division ahead of Van & maybe SJ (it could be Cgy ahead instead of one of those two). Anything beyond that is gravy and makes a good season great.

  16. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    TheOrangeDesk,

    Disagree on the Wild. Yes, they won’t go on a crazy Dubnyk led run at the end of the season, but keep in mind that last year poor goaltending early on totally sunk them, despite being a possession monster.

    That’s still a playoff team in my book, they will just spread the wins out over the full season this time.

  17. speeds says:

    Bar_Qu:
    LT, I love the RE series and it is great to be able to put everything into a proper, balanced perspective. I’m sure you enjoy doing it, but it looks like a tremendous amount of work. Thank you, sir.

    Woodguy,

    That’s a lot of “ifs” which imo makes the possibility of playoffs at best unlikely, but certainly a goal to strive for. I think reasonable here is assuming 4th in the division ahead of Van & maybe SJ (it could be Cgy ahead instead of one of those two). Anything beyond that is gravy and makes a good season great.

    Maybe there’s a better chance that McDavid is a top 5 scorer in the league than there was that EDM would win the lottery?

  18. TheOrangeDesk says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I thought about that as well, however half their season was below average goaltending (athough better than edmonton) and half was phenomenal goaltending. they made playoffs with 5 points to spare. Good team, but I wouldn’t say a lock. Anyone know what the Wilds overall save percentage was last year?

  19. flyfish1168 says:

    Excellent series. Always enjoy this segment of your blog LT. But I woulds also put Purcell in the deadline or before trade category.

    In the Hall Cluster I think maybe in time due to CAP constraints we may only see Klefbom and RNH being with the MCD cluster. JMHO.

  20. wheatnoil says:

    An RE on executives, owners AND a bonus RE? Who could the bonus RE be for?

    Media? Lowetide himself? RE on the Lowetide comments section?

  21. Rube Foster says:

    LT,
    Thank you for your tireless work on the RE series. Your RE series have become one of my favorite summer pastimes and in these heady days of McDavid and Punk Rock I think that you too Sir have hit your prime.
    May your prime last as long as Delvecchio’s!

  22. Soup Fascist says:

    Connor McDavid / Todd McLelland / Goaltending

    These are three major changes that should dramatically change the team. I realize this is a “No shit, Sherlock” statement, but I think Goaltending will ultimately determine if this team is an afterthought or a playoff team.

    McDavid, by all accounts is truly “generational”. I know we are not supposed to put pressure or expectations on the kid – but they are there – and he has faced them for years. He will be fine.

    Finally, an actual honest to goodness relevant NHL coach. Why did this take so long?

    Good to great goaltending is the biggest x-factor. If we get it, the Oilers have a real chance to make the playoffs. If we don’t – it doesnt matter how good McDavid is or how smart McLelland is – we will be doomed to another lottery pick.

    I have a feeling the Oilers are going to get very good goattending this year – but something is telling me the biggest story will not be Talbot. I know this is not the site for hunches, but I just have a “feeling” either Nilsson or …. gasp ….. Scrivens are going to be a story.

  23. kinger_OIL says:

    Nice work LT – great summer reading for sure. I love the format, and its a very rewarding way to set up the season for all of us Fans. Time for another click on the PayPal. This is the future of media: great content people want, customized to them, and a sense of community.

    – 28 year old unproven Goalie (with great promise), hoping to replace a failed 28 year old (who had much promise), and a 25 year old who didn’t crack the NHL last time, but showed promise in a weaker league

    – Pretty sure we are the only team in the league with 3 G with so little established track record (well 2 plus Scrivens, who we hope regresses to the mean) competing for games and trying to get to 93 points

    – What could go wrong?

  24. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    wheatnoil:
    An RE on executives, owners AND a bonus RE? Who could the bonus RE be for?

    Media? Lowetide himself? RE on the Lowetide comments section?

    OEL

  25. bendelson says:

    Indeed, the RE series has once again been fun to follow with muscial selections that inspire…
    outside of that Ghostbusters choice, of course. Like a few others have noted, it both surprised and perplexed.

    When I saw Venus today, for a brief moment, I actually thought you went completely off your rocker and included Bananarama in the RE series.

    To pick up on yesterday’s Blue Jay talk… does anyone else have the Blue Jay ‘hockey stick’ from their inaugural season – 1977? My brothers and I recieved them when my Dad took the three of us to a game that season – festival seating in the outfield bleachers. We were 4, 6 and 7 years old and it was a madhouse before they opened those gates… I still recall the fear in my Dad’s eyes when my little brother was momentarily lost in that mass of humanity. Thankfully, his horrific screams of terror made him easy to locate.

    Ah, the memories…
    Go Jays.

  26. Ducey says:

    Yak 38pts
    Hall 75 pts
    Nuge 63 pts
    Ebs 66 pts
    McDavid 62 pts

    One of these is not like the others.

    Ugh.

  27. Woodguy says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    Woodguy,

    I think there is a chance that Dallas finds a way to be a bad team despite all logic and reason suggesting otherwise.

    Me too.

    Their goalies are old and I don’t think they improved their defence as much as everyone thinks they did.

    Fantastic scoring though. Benn, Seguin, Nickushkin, Spezza, Sharp, Hemsky, Eakin, Klingberg, Goligoski.

  28. Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons says:

    Ducey,

    To be part of the core, Yak needs to play with the core.

  29. TheOtherJohn says:

    McDavid with 28-47-75 pts and a Calder. Not sure the Oil have a +6 goal differential. 10th in WC is reasonable for this Oiler roster.

    Marvelous series, just a great read

  30. Woodguy says:

    kinger_OIL,

    – 28 year old unproven Goalie (with great promise), hoping to replace a failed 28 year old (who had much promise), and a 25 year old who didn’t crack the NHL last time, but showed promise in a weaker league

    Except for his 18 games with LAK Scriven’s track record was pretty shitty.

    Didn’t have much promise really.

    Talbot on the other hand is trending elite.

    Comparing the two is like comparing Schneider to Hammond and saying they’re the same.

  31. Soup Fascist says:

    Woodguy: Me too.Their goalies are old and I don’t think they improved their defence as much as everyone thinks they did.Fantastic scoring though. Benn, Seguin, Nickushkin, Spezza, Sharp, Hemsky, Eakin, Klingberg, Goligoski.

    I think Oduya is a downgrade from Daley – certainly in the future, but even this season. Am I on an island with that opinion?

  32. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy:
    kinger_OIL,

    – 28 year old unproven Goalie (with great promise), hoping to replace a failed 28 year old (who had much promise), and a 25 year old who didn’t crack the NHL last time, but showed promise in a weaker league

    Except for his 18 games with LAK Scriven’s track record was pretty shitty.

    Didn’t have much promise really.

    Talbot on the other hand is trending elite.

    Comparing the two is like comparing Schneider to Hammond and saying they’re the same.

    Also, Fasth was always a poor bet. So there was no secondary option.

  33. LadiesloveSmid says:

    TheOrangeDesk:
    I see the west being very unpredictable.I have no idea how SJ will do, they lost their coach and didn’t do so great last year either.
    Chicago looks to be set up for a bad year, Stanley cup hangover plus losing Sharp, Oduya, possibly Kane and possibly Seabrook at some point.Minnesota won’t go on a crazy Dubnyk run again this year.
    Calgary and Vancouver are set up to fall big time.
    LAK missed playoffs last year and by the end of the season they certainly weren’t the dominating team we were used to.

    Oilers have a great opportunity here, with a hot start they could really take off.

    SJ’s banking on Jones, too. Wouldn’t have been thrilled with him in Edmonton.

    CHI down Sharp, Oduya, Saad, (Kane?). Still a playoff team. Think Anisimov and Dano will be quality.

    LAK is setting up for a run. Lost Williams but added Lucic and Ehrhoff.

    CGY’s defence is hard to ignore.

    VAN just has to drop to bottom 5. Outside of Edler-Tanev and the Sedins, there’s slim to nothing. Best goalie is gone.

  34. Ducey says:

    Undisclosed_Personal_Reasons:
    Ducey,

    To be part of the core, Yak needs to play with the core.

    Players that go #1 overall should form their own cluster or core.

    If Yak finishes with around 35 points again this year, we are going to be talking about what a clusterf**k of a pick he was.

  35. LadiesloveSmid says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    I really have a hard time predicting AHJ. Sky is the limit. Like 90P is not out of the question, though neither is 60. I like 75 too.

    We are expecting the best, and I think he’ll over deliver. Nothing he won’t be able to do.

  36. leadfarmer says:

    I’m going with Talbot 916 sv % and Seivens with 907. If someone wants to keep track

  37. slopitch says:

    Volman posted an article just now for the ESPN insiders that gives credit to the impact of coaches. MacLellan is in his category of solid coaches (not accomplished which I disagree with). Anyways he could play a big part of a turnarond this year. I agree though, one more solid D addition and this team has a legit shot at playoffs.

  38. leadfarmer says:

    I don’t see this level of improvement as some are seeing. McClellan will realize pretty quick that if he just rolls the lines like he did in SJ there will be some players that bleed GA. There’s just too many players that need sheltering

  39. LadiesloveSmid says:

    what happens with CGY’s goalie situation?

    3 guys on 1 way deals. If their last resort is to waive Hiller, would you trade Scrivens+ for him. Bit of cap relief and a late pick?

  40. Melman says:

    LadiesloveSmid,

    Vancouver might be “Oiler ugly” this season

  41. Pouzar says:

    leadfarmer:
    I don’t see this level of improvement as some are seeing.McClellan will realize pretty quick that if he just rolls the lines like he did in SJ there will be some players that bleed GA.There’s just too many players that need sheltering

    Or if we roll out Ference for 20+ mins a night we are f6cked.

  42. kinger_OIL says:

    wheatnoil,

    – There was great work on Talbot’s upside but as an asset manager, I think they mis-evaluated where the OIL are in the cycle.

    – Talbot is a good bet for a good team trying to get to the next level by having a new Goalie compete legitimately with an incumbent that is good but not great, but can afford to bet wrong because they have an established G

    – Talbot, who has the same small sample size – albeit better numbers, (and yes variance in G year over year is well understood), is a massive bet for a sh$tty team, that needs average G to progress.

    – I’m not saying its not going to work, nor is it a good bet, but the risks are much larger than many here appear willing to recognize.

    – No one was saying Fasth Scrivens was a bad bet: consensus was it was better than the Dubnyk/Bachman bet the year before:…

    – Bottom line: If Talbot (note my edit!) = Scrivens = Dubynk last three years, what is the back-up? Its going out and paying up for an established G in short order, which is what I humbly submit they should have done already.

  43. Soup Fascist says:

    kinger_OIL: wheatnoil, P>– Bottom line: If Fasth = Scrivens = Dubynk last three years, what is the back-up? Its going out and paying up for an established G in short order, which is what I humbly submit they should have done already.

    Which established and avaialble NHL tender were you thinking of?

  44. Melman says:

    Ducey,

    I don’t think you can call Yak a clusterF of a pick if he doesn’t turn out. Sure call him a bust, but that’s either on the player or the organization for bad development. Little things that might have helped a #1 OV winger such as playing with an actual veteran NHL centre. He was the consensus #1 tho.

    He has talent, he tries his bag off and for all accounts is a a great kid. He’s only 21! It’s a little early to write off the next 10 years of his career

  45. wheatnoil says:

    slopitch:
    Volman posted an article just now for the ESPN insiders that gives credit to the impact of coaches. MacLellan is in his category of solid coaches (not accomplished which I disagree with). Anyways he could play a big part of a turnarond this year. I agree though, one more solid D addition and this team has a legit shot at playoffs.

    I saw that article and it’s an interesting idea, but I’m not sure of his methodology. Basically he looks at which teams outperform regressed standings points, but there’s a lot of variables to that methodology. I’d be more interested in studies on coaching changes in order to determine the effect of a coaching staff.

    Admittedly, I’m also skeptical because I don’t agree with his rankings, which is sort of a poor reason to dismiss it out of hand. Still, a list that has Babcock and McLellan as below Therrien in Montreal raises some red flags for me.

  46. Soup Fascist says:

    LadiesloveSmid: what happens with CGY’s goalie situation?3 guys on 1 way deals. If their last resort is to waive Hiller, would you trade Scrivens+ for him. Bit of cap relief and a late pick?

    Sure, but why would Calgary trade for Scrivens if they are set with their two goalies? Now they are just trying to waive a third wheel with a bigger contract.

  47. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Soup Fascist,

    just thinking if they want the cap room. Burying a 2.3M contract instead of 4.5M

  48. Woodguy says:

    Soup Fascist: I think Oduya is a downgrade from Daley – certainly in the future, but even this season.Am I on an island with that opinion?

    Daley was just awful last year though.

    -21 RelCor on DAL

    Dragged down Goligoski against the toughs and dragged down his other partners away from the toughs too.

    Oduya had a tough year (had a better playoff), but its almost impossible to not be an upgrade on Daley from last year.

    He was Ference-esque in his effect on DAL

    DAL w/ Daley on the ice 44.8%CF
    DAL w/ Daley off the ice 53.7% CF

    Hmmmmmm, maybe DAL’s D did improve just by getting rid of Daley……..

  49. wheatnoil says:

    kinger_OIL,

    I see your concern and I think it’s reasonable. I’m just not sure what the other option out there was. The closest thing to a reliable veteran was Niemi and I’m not convinced he’s a better bet to out-perform Talbot next year. Neuvirth might be the closest after Niemi and that’s a long ways from proven.

    That said, I’m on record as saying that Talbot / Neuvirth / Scrivens would have been a safer goalie bet than Talbot / Scrivens / Nilsson.

  50. wheatnoil says:

    Woodguy: Daley was just awful last year though.

    -21 RelCor on DAL

    Dragged down Goligoski against the toughs and dragged down his other partners away from the toughs too.

    Oduya had a tough year (had a better playoff), but its almost impossible to not be an upgrade on Daley from last year.

    He was Ference-esque in his effect on DAL

    DAL w/ Daley on the ice 44.8%CF
    DAL w/ Daley off the ice53.7% CF

    Hmmmmmm, maybe DAL’s D did improve just by getting rid of Daley……..

    I think shipping off Daley was an under-rated move by Nill. I really don’t know what Bowman was thinking.

    That said, if Daley bounces back in Chicago, it says one of two things in my opinion…

    1) Don’t doubt Bowman

    or

    2) Coach Q’s systems are more important than the pieces in the system.

  51. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Players that go #1 overall should form their own cluster or core.

    If Yak finishes with around 35 points again this year, we are going to be talking about what a clusterf**k of a pick he was.

    The only player in Yak’s draft class who has a better pts/gm is Galchenyuk who only played 2 games in his draft year.

    It was a very weak draft class for F’s.

    Great Dmen draft class though.

  52. Woodguy says:

    wheatnoil: I think shipping off Daley was an under-rated move by Nill. I really don’t know what Bowman was thinking.

    That said, if Daley bounces back in Chicago, it says one of two things in my opinion…

    1) Don’t doubt Bowman

    or

    2) Coach Q’s systems are more important than the pieces in the system.

    Yeah, it will be really interesting to watch.

    Daley will be 32 when the season starts.

    He’s always been fairly physical.

    His cliff might have come last year.

    Oduya’s cliff looked to come last year, but he picked it up in the playoffs.

    Hjalmasson might be able to hide some defects.

  53. Klima's_Bucket says:

    Woodguy,

    Yeah, like Griffin Reinhart!!!

  54. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    what happens with CGY’s goalie situation?

    3 guys on 1 way deals. If their last resort is to waive Hiller, would you trade Scrivens+ for him. Bit of cap relief and a late pick?

    I think they let Orito get waived.

    Pretty rare for a goalie to be picked off waivers.

    Any player picked off waives has to stay on the NHL roster and every team has their 2 goalies in place by camp.

    If a goalie gets injured in camp I can see CAL trading Ramo to that team.

  55. sliderule says:

    If Scrivens and Nilsson can’t do a save percentage of .915 they won’t be playing 29 games.

    If they can do that it will reduce goals against by about 9 and get the oil in playoffs.

  56. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy,

    if only Trouba or Lindholm were the unananimous #1 pick

  57. TheOtherJohn says:

    kinger_OIL,

    There were people that thought Fasth/Scrivens was not a great bet. Might not be a large group of people but there were questions.And to suggest Scrivens was Dubnyk is simply wrong. Dubnyk had better #’s at a higher level from Scrivens n/w/s they were the same age. Dubbie had a real bad year w decent #’s around it. Scrivens had a single strong year

  58. LadiesloveSmid says:

    Woodguy: I think they let Orito get waived.

    Pretty rare for a goalie to be picked off waivers.

    Any player picked off waives has to stay on the NHL roster and every team has their 2 goalies in place by camp.

    If a goalie gets injured in camp I can see CAL trading Ramo to that team.

    I don’t know that a lot of teams would want to or could take on Ramo at 3.8.

    Maybe a team with a weak backup like CBJ, ARI, or LA takes a flyer on Joni

  59. Woodguy says:

    Klima’s_Bucket:
    Woodguy,

    Yeah, like Griffin Reinhart!!!

    Here’s the first 18 CHL Dmen taken that year:

    NAME
    Ryan Murray
    Griffin Reinhart
    Morgan Rielly
    Mathew Dumba
    Derrick Pouliot
    Slater Koekkoek
    Cody Ceci
    Olli Maatta
    Matt Finn
    Dylan Blujus
    Dillon Fournier
    Dalton Thrower
    Damon Severson
    Adam Pelech
    James Melindy
    Loic Leduc
    Brett Kulak

    Add to that the international and US players like:

    Lindholm, Trouba, Matheson, Schmatlz etc…

    Amazing draft year for Dmen.

    Might be the best ever.

  60. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid: I don’t know that a lot of teams would want to or could take on Ramo at 3.8.

    Maybe a team with a weak backup like CBJ, ARI, or LA takes a flyer on Joni

    That really depends on who gets hurt.

    I agree that it depends on the back up.

    If a starter on PHI or CBJ (teams with one good goalie and one meh goalie) tears a ligament they’d take on Ramo.

    I couldn’t see CBJ standing pat after the disaster they had last year due to injuries.

  61. Woodguy says:

    LadiesloveSmid:
    Woodguy,

    if only Trouba or Lindholm were the unananimous #1 pick

    I think Dumba might be the best out of this draft class eventually.

    I think he’s going to explode this year.

    Love Trouba and Lindholm too.

  62. Woodguy says:

    Ducey: Players that go #1 overall should form their own cluster or core.

    If Yak finishes with around 35 points again this year, we are going to be talking about what a clusterf**k of a pick he was.

    If only you had the patience for Yak that you had for Tambellini.

  63. flyfish1168 says:

    Ducey: Players that go #1 overall should form their own cluster or core.

    If Yak finishes with around 35 points again this year, we are going to be talking about what a clusterf**k of a pick he was.

    I saw a very interesting stat ,Yak was only -11 under Kruger and Nelson as coach. Do you remember how exciting, dynamic and always pushing the offensive zone during this period ? Yak under those two coaches had confidence and his play showed. Yak has only really been in the league for 2.5 years and 1.5 years was wasted. Coaching for a fact made a difference with Yak.

  64. Ducey says:

    Woodguy: If only you had the patience for Yak that you had for Tambellini.

    I have lots of patience for Yak. But the fact is that a 4th straight season of ~35 pts starts to point to one inescapable conclusion.

  65. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    Too bad your not supposed to draft dman high :). I’m glad my persistence is paying off.

  66. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    executives, ownership and a bonus RE. Stay tuned!

    Well this is going to get interesting – is the bonus RE for the San Diego Gulls?

  67. leadfarmer says:

    RE for he who shall not be named one of them? And I’m not talking about Voldemort.

  68. Drew says:

    delooper:
    This E.Net guy has some good underlying numbers.How many games has he played?

    I am almost thinking “i like the cut of that guys jib” Where did he grow up

  69. leadfarmer says:

    Just out of curiosity what is everyone else’s RE for the goalies. Lt put his head out on the chopping block. I put it out above. Just wondering if others are willing before the hindsight brigade comes out in 4 months

  70. Soup Fascist says:

    Woodguy,

    http://www.defendingbigd.com/2015/7/7/8904697/dallas-stars-trevor-daley-defense-stats-breakdown-analytics-shots-against-analysis

    You are correct. The article above basically shows Daley’s 2015 as a generationally bad year.

  71. rickithebear says:

    Coached Systems and Dman are critical to Sucessful Team:
    looking at:
    LAK; CHI; SJS; EDM: CGY HSCA/60 since the 04-05 Lockout.

    EDM:
    05-06 #3 9.2 HSCA/60
    ——————————– Pronger; Spacek Left
    06-07 #23 11.2
    07-08 #25 11.4
    08-09 #24 11.3
    ———————– MacT relieved as Coach
    09-10 #30 13.3 Quin
    10-11 #28 12.8 Renney
    11-12 #28 12.7 Renney
    12-13 #30 13.8 Krueger
    13-14 #27 12.5 Eakins
    14-15 #27 12.6 Eakins/Nelson

    CGY
    05-06 #3 9.2
    06-07 #7 9.5
    07-08 #9 9.7
    08-09 #9 10.1
    09-10 #13 10.2 Brent Sutter
    10-11 #2 9.4 B. Sutter
    ——————————— sutter resigns as GM
    11-12 #13 10.2 B Sutter
    ——————————————— both sutters out
    12-13 #19 11.2 Hartley
    13-14 #20 11.1 Hartley
    14-15 #25 11.7 Hartley

    NJ:
    05-06 #8 9.6 Robinson, Lamoriello
    06-07 #6 9.4 Julien
    07-08 #4 8.9 B. Sutter
    08-09 #4 9.6 B. Sutter
    09-10 #3 9.2 lemaire
    ——————— fayne to 1st comp D
    10-11 #1 8.7 Lemaire
    11-12 #1 8.7 Deboer
    12-13 #1 8.0 Deboer
    13-14 #1 7.6 Deboer
    —————————- Fayne goes to EDM
    14-15 #9 9.8 Deboer; Lamoriello

    SJS
    05-06 #1 8.3 Wilson
    06-07 #1 8.3 Wilson
    07-08 #2 7.8 Wilson
    ——————————- Tmac added
    08-09 #3 9.5
    09-10 #3 9.5
    10-11 #4 10.0
    11-12 #3 9.6
    12-13 #5 9.1 Burns; B. stuart; 1st comp; M. Irwin; Braun; Vlasic 2ndcomp; Boyle 3rd comp
    13-14 #8 9.9 Burns; Braun 1st comp; Stuart Vlasic 2nd comp; Boyle 3rd comp
    —————————- 2nd comp D forced into 1st comp roles.
    14-15 20 11.1 Vlasic; Braun 1st; burns; Mueller 1st/2nd; Tennyson 2nd; Hanna; irwin; Fedun 3rd

    Good box protection coaching and the correct D

  72. kinger_OIL says:

    Soup Fascist,

    If the call is to get a really good chance of at least average G (and not high beta), here’s 5:
    1. Anteii Neimi (two established G in Dallas, Cadillac version of a good G situation)
    2. Lack (he’s competing against Ward: great G scenario)
    3. Khudobin (another great G scenario – in case their kids don’t work out)
    4. Ramo (he’s actually the upside playbook for Nilsson, and with Hiller another good combo)
    5) Neiveirth (nice G situation in Philly with Mason)

    – Talbot is a good bet, I just don’t like the lack of downside protection, as we’ve seen it before. All these teams made good bets and have a devil they know already on their roster.

  73. Pouzar says:

    flyfish1168: Do you remember how exciting, dynamic and always pushing the offensive zone during this period?

    I’ve never seen Yak that way at all. Sorry.

  74. dannyboy says:

    Great work man! This blog is such a joy. keep it up LT

  75. pocession charge says:

    I’ll take the over on McDavid, Yakupov, and Lander. I think the offensive estimates are too low for all three guys.

    And I’ll take the under on Nuge. 60+ points is a lot for a guy who has never cracked 50.

  76. Doug McLachlan says:

    Ducey: I have lots of patience for Yak. But the fact is that a 4th straight season of ~35 pts starts to point to one inescapable conclusion.

    Sam Pollock. Don’t give up on a kid until you are sure. He’s 21 and has played in the OHL (breaking Stamkos’ rookie scoring record, BTW), drafted as the consensus #1, wows at rookie camp and then …crazy-time.

    Lockout hits so he plays in Russia and WJC (becoming a media lightning rod because, well because); joins sad-sack Oilers and because he is young, enthusiastic and Russian is piled on by Don Cherry and Co. for his heart-felt celebration of a great goal in a game that the fates and refs were pulling out the stops to deny the Oilers on; wins the rookie scoring title but is denied any Calder love because…Oilers. Now gets new coach who has a sideburns issue with him and absolutely stifles this offensive skill set so he can work on his defensive game. Yak accepts role and assignment with enthusiasm but is clearly overwhelmed and undersupported for a season and a half. Nelson’s arrival brings a return to sanity.

    Post All-Star game his PPG goes from .24 to .62! Full season and he’s a 50pt player.

    While the Oilers have scratched the paint up something awful, they have not yet, IMHO, scratched the surface of his talent.

    I don’t know why he and Nuge never clicked but my God, man, he has a canon! I still recall how he hurt goalies in his rookie season before someone got it into his head that he shouldn’t do that.

    I trust that McLellan will see what he has in Yakupov and unleash the kid. Thought the ON article arguing for putting him on McDavid’s side had it right. Best defense is an overwhelming offense.

    If Yak City is the underestimated Re in this series – oh, boy… music, music, music.

  77. Woodguy says:

    rickithebear,

    I wonder how DeBoer’s low event NJD system will work with guys like Thornton, Pavelski, Couture, Marleau etc.

    Their D isn’t shaping up to be anything special. Burns is very high event, Vlasic, Martin and Braun are pretty steady, not a fan of Dillon.

    Its tough to figure what they’re going to look like.

    Maybe they needed to change to a DeBoer type coach as they are getting older and skating miles every shift might be wearing them down?

  78. Hammers says:

    LT thank you . Once again the summer is bearable without games .

  79. flyfish1168 says:

    Pouzar: I’ve never seen Yak that way at all. Sorry.

    the 1.5 wasted years is strong in your mind.

  80. flyfish1168 says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Yak under Kruger and Nelson was a -11. Lots was wrong with the coaching during the wasted 1.5 years. At least now we can thank the leafs for over hyping even their farm coach.

  81. hags9k says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    Nicely put. I agree that Yak is still going to live up to the original billing.

    Hmmm, a supremely talented but struggling 21 yr old former 1st overall winger…
    Hmmm, a once in a generation talent at C gifted to the club by the lottery…

    The key to unlocking Yak was in the form of Daly and the gold card. CLICK

  82. Ducey says:

    Doug McLachlan,

    I hope you are right on Yak. Even a 45+ pt season would show improvement and give hope that he is developing.

  83. Well Oiled and Enthusiastic says:

    Thanks for this LT. I have read every word of the series and enjoyed it all.

  84. G Money says:

    kinger_OIL,

    Have to disagree with you on almost every point. Bear in mind that Wheat and I dug into the goaltending numbers and career histories of a TON of goalies.

    1. Anttii Niemi is not a good bet. His history and his numbers are not that great. Lehtonen had weak numbers last year and is at an age where those kind of numbers are more likely to be indicative of the start of the cliff. It’s always possible he rebounds, but he’s in the ‘stable’ part of his career. It would not surprise me in the least if the Talbot/Scrivens tandem, despite all the question marks, outperform the Dallas tandem next year.

    2. I like Lack. But he’s no more established than Talbot. It’s the same bet.

    3. Khudobin is not much more established than Talbot. I do think he, like Lack and Talbot, is tracking to be good. But in terms of his career position, he’s still early. The one advantage that he has over Talbot is the not-uncommon ‘sv% dip’ that a lot of goalies go through, he’s already been through.

    Then again … so has Scrivens.

    4. Ramo is a .905 goalie, which is in line with his earlier career. Last year at .912 (no great shakes) was his best year ever. I will take Talbot over Ramo a thousand times and back.

    5. I like Neuvirth only because he’s been an unusually steady goalie (low volatility of sv%), and he’s played behind the Buffalo tire fire. But the flip side is, his ceiling is somewhere around good backup to capable starter – nowhere close to that of Talbot’s, which is ‘elite goalie’.

  85. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    G Money,

    Nailed it.

    Talbot/Neuvirth was my ideal bet. That said, if our biggest issue is backup goalie (it isn’t) then we’re in good shape, considering what the last few years have looked like.

  86. Hammers says:

    hags9k:
    Doug McLachlan,

    Nicely put.I agree that Yak is still going to live up to the original billing.

    Hmmm, a supremely talented but struggling 21 yr old former 1st overall winger…
    Hmmm, a once in a generation talent at C gifted to the club by the lottery…

    The key to unlocking Yak was in the form of Daly and the gold card.CLICK

    As long as they get Pouliot on the wing with them it could explode . Hall back with Nuge Ebs for me .

  87. Adam Wu says:

    Ducey: Players that go #1 overall should form their own cluster or core.

    If Yak finishes with around 35 points again this year, we are going to be talking about what a clusterf**k of a pick he was.

    Players that go #1 overall typically do not go to a team that already has 2 other #1 overalls from the two prior consecutive years. As a result they get put into a system that, from day one, intends to PRODUCE a core around them. Veterans are chosen specifically to mentor them. Other players added specifically to complement them. Coaches make, and get, allowances specifically to develop them. Yak had none of that. All the organizational resources that a typical #1 overall gets, the Oilers were already still devoting to Hall and RNH, and the Oilers had precious little of it to begin with, thanks to earlier mismanagement.

  88. Магия 10 says:

    Adam Wu: Players that go #1 overall typically do not go to a team that already has 2 other #1 overalls from the two prior consecutive years. As a result they get put into a system that, from day one, intends to PRODUCE a core around them. Veterans are chosen specifically to mentor them. Other players added specifically to complement them. Coaches make, and get, allowances specifically to develop them. Yak had none of that. All the organizational resources that a typical #1 overall gets, the Oilers were already still devoting to Hall and RNH, and the Oilers had precious little of it to begin with, thanks to earlier mismanagement.

    This. Folks read too much into the offense positives with Roy and miss that it doesn’t matter which vet mentored. At least it finally started. It’s now up to Yak to take what he learned about not trying so damn hard and listening to his centre and it’s up to Todd to put him where you put an emerging high skill guy. Peter and Todd are starting with a fresh eval all the way around. I’d be surprised if he don’t get some top 6 time and earn some more.

  89. kinger_OIL says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    – Awesome to have different opinions – You guys are looking at Talbot in a vacuum. I am looking at him in the context of the portfolio of G’s currently held by the OIL. The bet on Talbot in a vacuum might be fine, and on small samples you have projected out.

    – Risk adjusted though, this is not an optimal portfolio of G’s for an NHL team hoping for a 30 point + improvement. The Oil didn’t need to whale-hunt for the next Vezina at this stage of their development. If that happens great, but they need as close to a sure bet league average G situation as possible in order to improve

    – How about this: “The Oil made a good bet on Talbot, but their G is vulnerable to sample size noise, and are really ill-equipped should Talbot falter”

  90. russ99 says:

    As for goaltending last year, we really started off on the wrong foot.

    Fasth won the job last camp, and got pushed to 1B, then when Scrivens faltered early he was frequently put into games midway, which is a fantastic way to ruin both goalies.

    Not to mention the defensive tire fire… Coaching and the soon to be fired goalkeeping coach did our goalies no favors the beginning last season.

    This year even with a full well-run camp I expect somewhat of a learning curve for McLellan’s defensive systems, so I hope that this year we have some patience with Talbot even if there are a few tougher games early on.

  91. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    kinger_OIL,

    I get that, and if there were an established veteran, who wasn’t too old, who could guarantee me a .915 for 40 games, all for a short term and low dollar figure, I’d jump all over that as a backup and buy out Scrivens, I really would.

    Reality is an established veteran who can give me a .915 save percentage costs $6million/3years (Ryan Miller) or maybe $3.5 million for 3 years (Niemi), and that’s on top of the cost to buyout Scrivens. While I think the downside risk is lower on both those guys, I’m also quite comfortable saying that Talbot’s chances of knocking it out of the park, maybe getting some Vezina votes, are about 100x more likely.

  92. rickithebear says:

    Fayne was the best HSCA d in the game 10-11 to 13-14
    NJ went from averaging 9.3
    to avg 8.3 for the 4 years with fayne
    jumping above 9.3 without.

    nikitin facing 2nd comp was
    11-12 12.58 #10 for D
    12-13 12.34 #15 for D
    13-14 13.78 #59 for D

    Sekera was 11.41 2nd comp in LAK under Sutter.
    playing with
    Mcnabb 35.5 CA/60
    reghr 45.50 CA/60
    11.41 averages top 5 for HSCA/60
    PC stated he wanted Sekera to be the hammer for 2nd comp group.

    Sekera in Buffalo
    07-08 2nd 12.70 HSCA/60 Weber 38.00 CA/60 and Lydman 55.00 CA/60
    08-09 2nd 13.14 Spacek 48.50 CA/60
    09-10 3rd 18.55 Lydman 64.58; Butler 64.95; Rivet 60.54; Paetsch 56.57
    10-11 1st 16.62 Meyer 48.77; Montador 61.79
    11-12 1st 13.31 Reghr 51.31; Weber 42.95
    12-13 Rolston 1st Erhoff 53.91; Reghr 70.11 system and coach affected box Protection.

    Sekera in Carolina
    13-14 1st 17.80 Faulk (17.10) 57.87 CA/60
    14-15 1st 17.39 Faulk (15.90) 42.95 CA/60

    Sekera achieves his best results agianst 1st and 2nd comp with a strong stay at home d with decent outlet pass.
    1st comp 13.22
    2nd comp 12.05

    Gryba had the 83rd best HSCA/60 rate 13.99.
    think of our team under a coach that structures to box protection.

    XXX – Fayne (10.05)
    Sekera (12.05) – Nikitin (12.90)
    Gryba (13.99) – XXX

    Klefbom
    reinhart
    Nurse
    Schultz

    last years deepest teams: listed with HSCA/60 rank.

    FLA:
    #1 Ekblad 3rd 10.74
    #2 campbell 3rd 10.79
    #5 Kempfer 2nd 11.46
    #9 Mitchell 1st 11.91
    #29 Gudbranson 2nd 12.77
    #37 Kulikov 1st 13.06
    #114 Petrovic 2nd 14.77

    DET:
    #3 Oellet 3rd 10.93
    #10 Kindl 3rd/4th 12.00
    #15 Smith 3rd 12.15
    #16 Quincey 1st/2nd 12.22
    #18 Deykeyser 1st/2nd 12.34
    #39 Ericsson 1st/2nd 13.08
    #46 Kronwall 1st/2nd 13.21

    LAK:
    #4 Sekera 2nd 11.41
    #6 Muzzin 1st 11.57
    #27 Doughty 1st 12.73
    #30 greene 3rd 12.79
    #36 Mcnabb 3rd/4th 13.32
    #51 Mcbaine 3rd/4th 13.32
    #53 reghr 1st/2nd 13.36
    #111 Martinez 3rd 14.72

    STL:
    #7 Butler 3rd 11.59
    #9 Shattenkirk 3rd 11.67
    #20 Bortuzzo 3rd 12.47
    #24 Lindholm 1st/2nd 12.67
    #32 Jackman 4th 12.83
    #38 gunnerson 2nd/3rd 13.08
    #112 Bouwmeester 2nd 14.76
    #146 Pietrangelo 1st 15.68

    MIN:
    #26 Brodin 1st 12.72
    #28 Spurgeon 2nd 12.74
    #50 Suter 1st 13.32
    #78 Scandella 2nd 13.87
    #93 Folin 3rd 14.35
    #96 Dumba 3rd 14.39

    NJ:
    #40 Helgeson 4th 13.10
    #44 Severson 2nd 13.14
    #45 Gelinas 3rd 13.18
    #56 Greene 1st 13.47
    #57 Larsson 1st 13.48
    #70 Harold 3rd 13.70
    #77 Merril 2nd 13.85

    OTT:
    #4 Methot 2nd 10.99
    #62 Weircoch 3rd 13.57
    #73 Karlsson 2nd 13.73
    #83 Gryba 3rd 13.99
    #125 Cowen 1st 15.14
    #140 Ceci 3rd 15.43

    BOS:
    #19 Bartkowski 2nd 12.38
    #21 trotman 4th 12.51
    #43 Miller 3rd 13.13
    #60 Chara 1st 13.53
    #81 Hamilton 1st 13.94
    #88 Mcquaid 3rd 14.27
    #100 Seidenberg 1st/2nd 14.40
    #132 Krug 3rd/4th 15.30

    NSH:
    #17 Ekholm 2nd 12.32
    #35 Jones 3rd 12.93
    #48 Ellis 3rd 13.27
    #61 Weber 1st 13.54
    #72 Josi 1st 13.71
    #86 Volchenkov 3rd/4th 14.11

    ANA:
    #14 Vatanen 3rd 12.15
    #25 Stoner 3rd 12.71
    #37 Despres 2nd 12.95
    #52 Lindholm 1st 13.35
    #68 Beauchemin 1st 13.64
    #82 Fowler 2nd 13.95

    WPG:
    #31 Clitsome 3rd 12.82
    #33 Chariot 2nd 12.84
    #34 Postma 3rd/4th 12.91
    #42 byfuglien 3rd 13.13
    #55 Enstrom 1st 13.44
    #109 Pardy 4th 14.66
    #122 Stuart 2nd 15.03
    #134 Trouba 2nd 15.32

    Pit :
    #41 Cole 4th 13.11
    #47 Martin 1st 13.22
    #59 lovejoy 2nd 13.52
    #75 Letang 1st 13.81
    #102 Erhoff 1st/2nd 14.42
    #107 Scuderi 3rd 14.54
    #123 pouliot 4th 15.04

    CBJ:
    #63 Goloubef 3rd 13.59
    #66 Savard 1st/2nd 13.63
    #69 Prout 1st/2nd 13.65
    #80 Tyutin 1st/2nd 13.90
    #89 Johnson 1st/2nd 14.28

    NYR:
    #13 Boyle 2nd 12.05
    #79 Hunwick 4th 13.89
    #95 Staal 1st/2nd 14.37
    #117 Klien 2nd 14.83
    #127 Mcdonnagh 1st 15.15
    #135 Girardi 1st 15.33

    SJS:
    #65 Hannan 3rd 13.62
    #85 tennyson 2nd 14.06
    392 Scott 4th 14.33
    #104 Irwin 3rd 14.45
    3116 Vlasic 1st 14.83
    #130 braun 1st 15.29

    CHI:
    #71 runblad 3rd 13.71
    #106 Hjarlmasson 1st 14.50
    # 115 Keith 2nd/3rd 14.83
    #120 Oduya 1st 14.96
    #124 Rozsival 3rd 15.13

    when you look at the top 150 HSCA/60 D
    Team top 4 depth becomes obvious.

    Very low HSCA/60 for your 3rd comp can be critical.

    Reference:

    CAR:
    #12 Liles 3rd 12.05
    #90 Hainsey 1st/2nd 14.29
    #99 Bellimore 2nd 14.40
    #101 Murphy 4th 14.41
    #129 jordon 3rd 15.24

    MTL:
    #108 beaulieu 4th 14.54
    #136 2nd/3rd Emelin 15.34
    #137 petry 2nd 15.34
    #160 Subban 1st 16.60

    EDM
    #147 1st Nikitin 15.80

    CGY:
    #145 Giordano 1st 15.67

  93. G Money says:

    Pouzar: flyfish1168: Do you remember how exciting, dynamic and always pushing the offensive zone during this period?

    I’ve never seen Yak that way at all. Sorry.

    Doug McLachlan: Post All-Star game his PPG goes from .24 to .62! Full season and he’s a 50pt player.

    To add some meat to the bones of the pre-Roy and post-Roy Yakspectations, I pulled the CoH player grades from last season and ran a few numbers on the two splits for Yakupov.

    The raters at CoH for these games were Young Jon Willis and Not So Young Bruce McCurdy, and I think it is reasonable to ascribe some measure of both ability and objectivity to their ratings, yes?

    Pre-Roy (to Dec 30th):

    36 games
    Avg CoH score: 4.98 (average rating for all players all season was 4.88)
    Highest score: 7
    # times rated 7 or higher: 6 (16.7%)
    # times best player on ice: 0
    # times tied for best player on ice: 2 (5.6%)
    # times worst player on ice: 0
    # times tied for worst player on ice: 1 (2.8%)

    Post-Roy (from Dec 30th):

    44 games
    Avg CoH score: 5.33
    Highest score: 8
    # times rated 7 or higher: 11 (25%)
    # times best player on ice: 3 (6.8%)
    # times tied for best player on ice: 5 (11.4%)
    # times worst player on ice: 1 (2.3%)
    # times tied for worst player on ice: 2 (4.6%)

    That concurs with my memory – fully 1 in 4 games after Derek Roy joined, Yakupov was an impact player. He was the best or tied for the best player in 1 out of 5 games.

    In fact, the improvement in Yak’s game is understated by these stats, because those three brutal games where Yak was worst or tied for worst on the team – all three of those happened in an eight game stretch immediately after Roy came on board. That’s probably what Yak was referring to when he said he was initially ‘scared’ of Roy and Roy was swearing at him.

    After those 8 games, Yak had a stretch of 13 games where he was mostly OK (average 5.15 score), with no bests or worsts, though certainly some good and some bad games.

    After that is when Yak’s game took off. All 8 of the post-Roy games in which he was the best or tied for best on the team all came in the last 24 games of the season. His average CoH score in that segment was 5.875, a pretty massive jump.

    By comparison, over that same 24 game stretch, RNH was rated at 5.95, Eberle a 5.48, and Hall post-return a 5.45. Those are some tough markers over there at CoH!

    Yak’s 5.875 over those last 24 games was the second highest rank on the team (other than Broissoit’s single game rank of 9) after RNH.

    That’s pretty stellar company.

    So yeah, I hate to tell you this Pouzar, but if you’ve never seen Yak as an impact player, you weren’t watching the last quarter of the season (er … though I guess I don’t blame you).

  94. Ducey says:

    Adam Wu: Players that go #1 overall typically do not go to a team that already has 2 other #1 overalls from the two prior consecutive years. As a result they get put into a system that, from day one, intends to PRODUCE a core around them. Veterans are chosen specifically to mentor them. Other players added specifically to complement them. Coaches make, and get, allowances specifically to develop them. Yak had none of that. All the organizational resources that a typical #1 overall gets, the Oilers were already still devoting to Hall and RNH, and the Oilers had precious little of it to begin with, thanks to earlier mismanagement.

    I am a big fan of evidence. Please give me some.

    Its a nice story, but its doesn’t seem to ring true.

    What “organizational resources” were “devoted” to Hall and Ebs that Yak has not had access to?

    Are we supposes to believe that the presence of Hall and Ebs retarded Yak’s development? He would have been better off had they not been there?

    I have this bizarre idea that the presence of Nuge, Hall and Eberle should have worked to Yak’s benefit, not his detriment. He had young players to develop with. He had talented players to play with.

  95. AsiaOil says:

    Hey I’m with you brother. It’s not that Talbot is not a very interesting pickup – he clearly is – it’s the utter and complete lack of a PLAN B if he cannot handle the starters role – and there is NO PROOF that he can. The whole “bet” analogy is false – this isn’t blackjack where a lost hand is rarely a big deal. Losing a goaltending “bet” means the season is lost and people lose their jobs. Plus we do have some history of this in EDM – Jussi Markanen was a good “bet”, Scrivens and Fasth were good “bets”. Well these “bets” almost blew the only year of success and CFP we had in a decade and sewered last year as well.

    All that said – I think the chaos in the EDM system has been largely removed and Talbot will have a better chance to succeed than anyone since Chris Joseph left town. Salo left a wreck and Roloson/Khabi were so experienced that they could handle the mgmt/coaching chaos – but Dubnyk was totally mishandled by MacT and that’s why we are where we are. I would have preferred Bernier as he is more proven and has done OK in the TOR fishbowl – but I don’t expect Chia to stand by and watch the season go down in flames if Talbot falters out of the gate. Scrivens will be waived and farmed if he can beat the Swede and nothing is being given away anymore. I agree this is risky but there was a limit to what Chia could accomplish over the summer without compromising what he wants to do next summer – and as LT has said – he’s not going to sit on his hands between August and March unlike the previous crew.

    We wait and watch…..

    kinger_OIL:
    Nice work LT – great summer reading for sure.I love the format, and its a very rewarding way to set up the season for all of us Fans.Time for another click on the PayPal.This is the future of media: great content people want, customized to them, and a sense of community.

    – 28 year old unproven Goalie (with great promise), hoping to replace a failed 28 year old (who had much promise), and a 25 year old who didn’t crack the NHL last time, but showed promise in a weaker league

    – Pretty sure we are the only team in the league with 3 G with so little established track record (well 2 plus Scrivens, who we hope regresses to the mean) competing for games and trying to get to 93 points

    – What could go wrong?

  96. Factotum says:

    I can’t say it enough, LT: Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. This blog is a gift.

  97. rickithebear says:

    our team gave up 7.04 HS/60
    Scrivens and Dubnyk were .8110 HS SV% under Eakins and Nelson
    7.04 X .8110 = 5.71 – 7.04 = 1.33 EVGA/60

    Talbot Faced 7.74 HS/60 last year playing with the rangers
    he had .8617 HS SV%
    7.74 X .8617 = 6.67 – 7.74 = 1.07 EVGA/60

    Imagine if talbot had faced 7.04 HS/60
    7.04 X .8617 = 6.07-7.04 = .97 EVGA/60

    that is .46 EVGA/60 better than Scrivens Dubnyk.

    MacT acquired
    Fayne the best HSCA/60 d in the Game thru FA.
    Playing in a structred Box system coached by Lemaire and Deboer.

    Traded for Nikitin a top 20 HSCA/60 2/3 years facing 2nd comp in CBJ.
    In a structured box system coached BY todd richards

    PC acquired
    Sekera
    1st comp 13.22 top 50 rate
    2nd comp 12.05 top 15 rate
    In a structured box system coached By Ruff and Sutter.

    Tmac runs a structured Box System.

    We have the best HS SV% golaie in the game last 2 years.
    14-15 36gm .8617 7.74 HS/60
    13-14 21gm .8687 5.37 HS/60

    DD
    11-12 38gm .8672
    12-13 47gm .8663
    13-14 .32gm .8095 Ekins
    14-15 58gm .8648

    So talbot faced 30.3 Shots/60
    7.74/30.3 = 25.5% of the shots
    19/36 gm were 2 g or less
    29/36 were 3 g or less.
    5/36 4g
    2/36 5g
    .926 SV%
    2.23 GA/60

    The only fear is the def box protect system does not take under Tmac in the first year.

  98. Soup Fascist says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Soup Fascist,

    If the call is to get a really good chance of at least average G (and not high beta), here’s 5:
    1. Anteii Neimi (two established G in Dallas, Cadillac version of a good G situation)
    2. Lack (he’s competing against Ward: great G scenario)
    3. Khudobin (another great G scenario – in case their kids don’t work out)
    4. Ramo (he’s actually the upside playbook for Nilsson, and with Hiller another good combo)
    5) Neiveirth (nice G situation in Philly with Mason)

    – Talbot is a good bet, I just don’t like the lack of downside protection, as we’ve seen it before.All these teams made good bets and have a devil they know already on their roster.

    Personally, Lack is the only one on that list that I would have been excited about and I don’t think Benning would move him within the division for anything less than a King’s ransom.

    Niemi feels like he is on the wrong side of the apex to me. He did not have a great year last year.

    Ramo does nothing for me. Career Save % just over .900. Again not sure Flames are anxious to move a goalie to a division rival.

    Man, Neuvirth looked bad with the Isles. Granted, small sample size, but he was horrific on a decent team.

    Khudobin, not a lot more starts that Talbot but he would have been an option. But to be honest none of these guys – except Niemi – scream “established starter” to me.

    I like all these guys better than the Scrivens we saw last year, but other than Lack none of these guys have the upside Talbot does. Your point about having a plan B (protection) is valid. I guess that is Nilsson’s role but I agree bringing in one of these guys along with Talbot – assuming you could work it in the cap and 86 Scrivens – would have been more reassuring.

  99. flyfish1168 says:

    G Money:
    To add some meat to the bones of the pre-Roy and post-Roy Yakspectations, I pulled the CoH player grades from last season and ran a few numbers on the two splits for Yakupov.

    The raters at CoH for these games were Young Jon Willis and Not So Young Bruce McCurdy, and I think it is reasonable to ascribe some measure of both ability and objectivity to their ratings, yes?

    Pre-Roy (to Dec 30th):

    36 games
    Avg CoH score: 4.98 (average rating for all players all season was 4.88)
    Highest score: 7
    # times rated 7 or higher: 6 (16.7%)
    # times best player on ice: 0
    # times tied for best player on ice: 2 (5.6%)
    # times worst player on ice: 0
    # times tied for worst player on ice: 1 (2.8%)

    Post-Roy (from Dec 30th):

    44 games
    Avg CoH score: 5.33
    Highest score: 8
    # times rated 7 or higher: 11 (25%)
    # times best player on ice: 3 (6.8%)
    # times tied for best player on ice: 5 (11.4%)
    # times worst player on ice: 1 (2.3%)
    # times tied for worst player on ice: 2 (4.6%)

    That concurs with my memory – fully 1 in 4 games after Derek Roy joined, Yakupov was an impact player.He was the best or tied for the best player in 1 out of 5 games.

    In fact, the improvement in Yak’s game is understated by these stats, because those three brutal games where Yak was worst or tied for worst on the team – all three of those happened in an eight game stretch immediately after Roy came on board.That’s probably what Yak was referring to when he said he was initially ‘scared’ of Roy and Roy was swearing at him.

    After those 8 games, Yak had a stretch of 13 games where he was mostly OK (average 5.15 score), with no bests or worsts, though certainly some good and some bad games.

    After that is when Yak’s game took off.All 8 of the post-Roy games in which he was the best or tied for best on the team all came in the last 24 games of the season.His average CoH score in that segment was 5.875, a pretty massive jump.

    By comparison, over that same 24 game stretch, RNH was rated at 5.95, Eberle a 5.48, and Hall post-return a 5.45.Those are some tough markers over there at CoH!

    Yak’s 5.875 over those last 24 games was the second highest rank on the team (other than Broissoit’s single game rank of 9) after RNH.

    That’s pretty stellar company.

    So yeah, I hate to tell you this Pouzar, but if you’ve never seen Yak as an impact player, you weren’t watching the last quarter of the season (er … though I guess I don’t blame you).

    That is awesome work. Even by eye i didn’t see Yak that bad defensively after eakins left. I remember someone doing a breakdown on +/- stats along with primary mistake on the play and generally Yak was not the player at fault. My thinking is he is not that big a detriment if he is the 2nd line RW. I feel if Yak is taught to be the late player coming in or to be lost from the play,going in the quiet space he will become that 30 something goal player. JMHO

  100. B S says:

    One of the things I love most about your blog LT is how you are serious and reasonable, but always manage to slip in a piece of ridiculous optimism.

    “Calder Trophy: Connor McDavid”

    How is he going to manage that? do the Oilers trade him mid-season? NHL.com had more Eichel coverage than McDavid coverage. Now that doesn’t bother me, and it doesn’t hurt my ego, nor likely his, but in all likelihood if Eichel is within 15 points of Mcdavid he will win the Calder instead on the grounds that he: played more games, or had more hits, or had few giveaways (but lets ignore takeaways), or more penalty minutes, then the media will latch on to some narrative about how Penalty minutes and hits are an indicator of grit, and grit is the most important aspect a rookie can bring to his team, points and goals be damned. Or a better plus/minus, ignoring TOI, QC, and a goalie with an outrageous save%.

    History tells us that his Blue and Orange sweater will keep him (and Nurse for that matter) from actually winning the Calder. It will be nice to see him nominated, I think that’s a reasonable expectation.

  101. godot10 says:

    There was no need to get a “vet” goaltender in the off-season. There will always be “vet” goaltenders for trade mid-season (because of the tight cap) if Talbot fails.

    The Oiler really have five internal candidates…Talbot, Scrivens, Nilsson. Broissoit, and Laurikainen. Somebody should want the job. The last two have done enough time in the minors or Europe. I doubt there will be any hesitation trying all five of them.

    But Cam Ward will be available mid-season. Jimmy Howard wlll probably available mid-season. Reimer probably available mid-season. Khudobin will be available. One of the Dallas goaltenders.

  102. Pouzar says:

    G Money: So yeah, I hate to tell you this Pouzar, but if you’ve never seen Yak as an impact player, you weren’t watching the last quarter of the season (er … though I guess I don’t blame you).

    Allow me to re-phrase. I have seen him impact games. I just don’t think he is an impact player. Not yet.

  103. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    Melman:
    Ducey,

    I don’t think you can call Yak a clusterF of a pick if he doesn’t turn out.Sure call him a bust, but that’s either on the player or the organization for bad development.Little things that might have helped a #1 OV winger such as playing with an actual veteran NHL centre.He was the consensus #1 tho.

    He has talent, he tries his bag off and for all accounts is a a great kid.He’s only 21!It’s a little early to write off the next 10 years of his career

    If Yak was gifted Eberle’s treatment the story would be different.

  104. Pouzar says:

    Rip Fan Winkle: If Yak was gifted Eberle’s treatment the story would be different.

    How original. Back to HFOil please.

  105. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!: Dallas

    Old goalies
    Weak D with no strong defensive player (Oduya will not be sheltered, was weak pre Hawks)
    Best forwards are over 30
    Young forwards are one dimensional

  106. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    Pouzar: How original. Back to HFOil please.

    Eberle was a terrible two way player with skill gifted first line minutes with the best talent for most of his career so far. He is now not terrible but weak defensively. Weak on the boards, weak on the forecheck, weak in his own end.

    Is this wrong?

  107. Rip Fan Winkle says:

    BTW, never on HF. Too many clowns 🙂

  108. G Money says:

    Why why why on earth does defending Yak (who has unquestionably been terribly terribly developed by the Oilers) have to somehow mean cutting down Eberle?

    Eberle, who’s consistently been one of the best right wings in the NHL for five years now.

    Eberle, who has the most points on the Oilers, and the 28th most points in the entire friggin’ league over the five years he’s been playing.

    Jordan “Dangerfield” Eberle.

    WTF does he have to do get some respect?

  109. Lowetide says:

    G Money:
    Why why why on earth does defending Yak (who has unquestionably been terribly terribly developed by the Oilers) have to somehow mean cutting down Eberle?

    Eberle, who’s consistently been one of the best right wings in the NHL for five years now.

    Eberle, who has the most points on the Oilers, and the 28th most points in the entire friggin’ league over the five years he’s been playing.

    Jordan “Dangerfield” Eberle.

    WTF does he have to do get some respect?

    And you know, we loved Hemsky.

  110. BONVIE says:

    Pouzar: I’ve never seen Yak that way at all. Sorry.

    Rip Fan Winkle: Eberle was a terrible two way player with skill gifted first line minutes with the best talent for most of his career so far. He is now not terrible but weak defensively. Weak on the boards, weak on the forecheck, weak in his own end.

    Is this wrong?

    Very wrong!!! Eberle for his size is great on the boards uses speed of his stick and craftyness to win his fair share of puck battles.

    In watching Yakapov which I refer to as “short stick” it seems like he is incapable of winning a puck battle always reaching and about 6 inches short from winning the battle anytime the puck comes on his board.

  111. Pouzar says:

    G Money:
    Why why why on earth does defending Yak (who has unquestionably been terribly terribly developed by the Oilers) have to somehow mean cutting down Eberle?

    Eberle, who’s consistently been one of the best right wings in the NHL for five years now.

    Eberle, who has the most points on the Oilers, and the 28th most points in the entire friggin’ league over the five years he’s been playing.

    Jordan “Dangerfield” Eberle.

    WTF does he have to do get some respect?

    This.

  112. borisnikov says:

    A little late to the party.

    I don’t want to be a negative Nancy but something isn’t sitting right with me. I understand the process. Totaling up all the REs, estimate the team save percentage with estimated shots against, get the goal differential, ask tough questions, pray to the Gords and subsequently estimate how many points/wins the team will end up with based on comparisons to other seasons… I just can’t fathom that things will go well enough to land a +91 goal differential and 31 point jump. These things just don’t happen. It would be the greatest single season jump of the modern era, or damn sure near it. Is that reasonable?

    It’s hard to argue any RE for a single player. But sum it all up and it seems far too optimistic. Would a 10 percent reduction of the team RE seem reasonable just to account for the inevitable player or two who will stink? Any thoughts?

  113. Lowetide says:

    borisnikov:
    A little late to the party.

    I don’t want to be a negative Nancy but something isn’t sitting right with me. I understand the process. Totaling up all the REs, estimate the team save percentage with estimated shots against, get the goal differential, ask tough questions, pray to the Gords and subsequently estimate how many points/wins the team will end up with based on comparisons to other seasons… I just can’t fathom that things will go well enough to land a +91 goal differential and 31 point jump. These things just don’t happen. It would be the greatest single season jump of the modern era, or damn sure near it. Is that reasonable?

    It’s hard to argue any RE for a single player. But sum it all up and it seems far too optimistic. Would a 10 percent reduction of the team RE seem reasonable just to account for the inevitable player or two who will stink? Any thoughts?

    Fabulous post. I agree with your point for sure, and actually thought about nicking each player a goal or adding in a bunch of GA. However, my assessment (basically three seasons and tweak based on age) came out here and any cutting would involve something far less defensible than using the numbers we have to project forward.

    This isn’t going to be popular, but my assessment is this: The Oilers HAVE BEEN a FAR better team than their record shows. We’ll see, but “the greatest single season jump of the modern era” is what the RE told me. So I wrote it that way.

  114. borisnikov says:

    Lowetide,

    Thanks LT. High praise. As Cory Cross once said even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while.
    I completely undertand what you are saying. I’m going to temper my expectations though. It all seems too good to be true and given the recent history of the team in blue and orange, disaster is a real risk. lol

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