SUPERNOVA 6.0

At last the Famous Detroit Model. They Last won the Stanley Cup in 07-08. Detroit currently owns the longest active post-season appearance streak. I really wondered what I would see in this sort of look, would I see what makes up there famed reputation ? are they still a top notch development organization?

One item I had read when Mike Babcock was in the search for a new team team is that he didn’t know who would replace Datsyuk and Zetterberg. Was he indicating the system wasn’t as productive as it once was? Was it living off reputation? Of note both Datsyuk and Zetterberg didn’t come up through the minor league system.

2009-10
Grand Rapids Griffins
Name age GP Pts
Jeremy Williams 25 77 63
Pat Rissmiller 30 63 45
Jan Mursak 21 79 42
Mattias Ritola 22 73 42
Francis Pare 22 77 39

other notables Emmerton, Kindl, Tatar

Top 5 Scorers average age 24
Falcons Top 5 26.4

2010-11
Grand Rapids Griffins
Name age GP Pts
Ilari Filppula 28 76 64
Tomas Tatar 19 70 57
Jamie Tardif 25 77 54
Francis Pare 23 80 54
Corey Emmerton 22 65 38

other notables B.Smith, Andersson

Top 5 Scorers average age 23.4
Barons top 5 25.8

2011-12
Grand Rapids Griffins
Name age GP Pts
Tomas Tatar 20 76 58
Gustav Nyquist 22 56 58
Jamie Johnson 29 76 58
Chris Conner 27 57 53
Francis Pare 24 75 52
Joakim Andersson 22 73 51

other notables B.Smith

Top 5 Scorers average age 24.4
Barons top 5 25

2012-13
Grand Rapids Griffins
Name age GP Pts
Gustav Nyquist 23 58 60
Tomas Tatar 21 61 49
Landon Ferraro 21 72 47
Jeff Hoggan 34 76 45
Francis Pare 25 68 44

Other notables Sheahan, Jurco, Callahan

Top 5 Scorers average age 24.8
Barons top 5 22.2 w/o Ebs, Schultz, Hall 24.2

2013-14
Grand Rapids Griffins
Name age GP Pts
Teemu Pulkinnen 21 71 59
Adam Almquist 22 73 53
Cory Emmerton 25 53 46
Mitch Callahan 22 70 44
Andrej Nestrasil 22 70 36

Other Notables Jurco, Sproul, Ferraro, Sheahan, Marchenko, Frk

Top 5 Scorers average age 22.4
Barons top 5 24.4

2014-15
Grand Rapids Griffins
Name age GP Pts
Andy Miele 26 71 70
Teemu Pulkinnen 22 46 61
Landon Ferraro 23 70 42
Kevin Porter 28 76 39
Mitch Callahan 23 48 38

Other Notables Mantha, Athanasiou, Trvdon, Sproul, Oullet, Frk

Top 5 Scorers average age 24.4
Barons top 5 28.6

List of Players that have played NHL Games

Player NHL GP AHL GP Draft Position
Kindl 248 239 19
B.Smith 195 152 27
Tatar 182 265 60
Nyquist 179 137 121
Andersson 176 189 88
Sheahan 123 110 21
Jurco 99 106 35
Mrazek 40 87 141
Pulkinnen 34 119 111
Oullet 25 122 48
Almquist 14 100 205
Ferraro 7 270 32
Callahan 1 237 180
Sproul 1 140 53
Frk 0 82 49

Thoughts

To me there is a clear organizational philosophy, their draft picks play many many at bats. It is very common to look at one of their players and see 200 plus CHL games, 160 Plus AHL Games, and then NHL Games
the Red Wings seemingly like to take a lot of bets and keep trying. Keep priming the system
they really like to take Euro players let or early and have them play late in Europe and then also in Detroit
The Red Wings tend to be one of the oldest NHL teams, they also tend not to have players break in until 22-23
they are very productive in their minor league development with forwards, defenseman and goalies
Detroit isn’t opposed to signing a few veterans for their roster in their minors, or even keeping their draft picks past when most teams do.
Tatar & Nyquist are likely regarded as 2nd line (over 25 goals) players at the NHL level drafted 60 & 121 and played at least 2 AHL seasons before breaking into the NHL. Oilers Anton Lander played 136 AHL games for perspective

Questions

  1. Is the reason that the Red Wings had a productive Minor League system and they were patient because they had a NHL 1st line (or more) and a capable Defence. Is it easier to be patient because your NHL team is better?
  2. Having a management team with a Steady hand on the wheel has been very helpful, it is also rare to hear of the Wings dealing a lot of their prospects for help at the deadline, if they had would they have won a cup ? or come close?
  3. While I see lots of depth players, maybe the comments that Babcock happened to have been rumored to make about the lack of elite of 1st line talent is true. Will Dylan Larkin get the same treatment ? he gets lots of attention, will he push the wings to alter their system

Supernova

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21 Responses to "SUPERNOVA 6.0"

  1. Jordan says:

    Having a management team with a Steady hand on the wheel has been very helpful, it is also rare to hear of the Wings dealing a lot of their prospects for help at the deadline, if they had would they have won a cup ? or come close?

    I look at this and can’t help but think part of the organizational philosophy is about identity. If you are going to invest time, money, energy and at bats on a player, you’re sure as hell going to keep him and see how he turns out!

    However, that’s not to say they don’t trade their prospects away – they do.

    But they have a very good history of only trading away players who don’t turn out. http://www.nhltradetracker.com/user/trade_list_by_team/Detroit_Red_Wings/1

  2. Lowetide says:

    Detroit does trade good prospects and valuable picks, like Shawn Matthias and the pick that turned into Nick Spaling for Todd Bertuzzi or the pick that turned into Andrei Vasilevskiy for Kyle Quincey. They don’t do it often though

  3. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    The problem is, you can’t run a philosophy of keeping your prospects around until they are 23 or 24, and not trade prospects, and sign everyone you draft (Marco Roy), and still come in under 50.

    Sacrifices must be made.

  4. supernova says:

    Jordan:
    Having a management team with a Steady hand on the wheel has been very helpful, it is also rare to hear of the Wings dealing a lot of their prospects for help at the deadline, if they had would they have won a cup ? or come close?

    I look at this and can’t help but thinkpart of the organizational philosophy is about identity.If you are going to invest time, money, energy and at bats on a player, you’re sure as hell going to keep him and see how he turns out!

    However, that’s not to say they don’t trade their prospects away – they do.

    But they have a very good history of only trading away players who don’t turn out.http://www.nhltradetracker.com/user/trade_list_by_team/Detroit_Red_Wings/1

    Jordan,

    Ken Holland has commented on this. I don’t have the interview handy to source it out.

    Forgive my paraphrase but he essentially said he believed in continuity and that it takes most draft picks seasoning to become the players that they can be.

    He was also self-deprecating as he stated he was essentially a below average minor league player for his playing career.

    ———-
    I would think Holland has a lot of power with the Wings and the Illitch family. The Detroit Tigers in MLB are not run the same. When one of the favourite players of Mike Illitch wanted to become a GM it was somewhere else, not in Detroit. (A lot of owners get a comradeship with the players and turn organizations over to them.)

    Holland has discussed Getting lucky on a few players but also believes it is their theology and system that allows for this luck to happen.

    “You have to be good to be lucky”

  5. supernova says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    The problem is, you can’t run a philosophy of keeping your prospects around until they are 23 or 24, and not trade prospects, and sign everyone you draft (Marco Roy), and still come in under 50.

    Sacrifices must be made.

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    I get what you are saying but can you illustrate an example with the Red Wings?

  6. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    supernova,

    Nope. I don’t know who they sign so much, not in depth anyway.

    Rather I’m saying that folks (we the people of Lowetide) tend to advocate for the following:

    1. Letting prospects stew in the system
    2. Using our draft picks
    3. Signing our draft picks (many were quite upset when Marco Roy wasn’t inittialy signed)
    4. Never trading players until you know exactly who they will become

    Each one of those things, on their own, is a good thing. But doing them all together is impossible. I assume, since they don’t trade a ton of prospects, they must not sign some of the players they draft. They also probably don’t draft more than 8 guys a year… which we often seem to.

    Just saying, I like their model, but there’s got to be some built in pain somewhere.

  7. Lowetide says:

    Cash: In fairness, Detroit passing on the opportunity to sign a second-round pick and Edmonton doing the same are not close to the same thing. Evaluation is an issue for the Oilers. Recent example: Chicago has a Swedish defenseman on their 50-man roster they’re exciting about—and the Oilers drafted him in the fourth-round 2012.

  8. supernova says:

    Ca$h-McMoney!:
    supernova,

    Nope.I don’t know who they sign so much, not in depth anyway.

    Rather I’m saying that folks (we the people of Lowetide) tend to advocate for the following:

    1. Letting prospects stew in the system
    2. Using our draft picks
    3. Signing our draft picks (many were quite upset when Marco Roy wasn’t inittialy signed)
    4. Never trading players until you know exactly who they will become

    Each one of those things, on their own, is a good thing.But doing them all together is impossible.I assume, since they don’t trade a ton of prospects, they must not sign some of the players they draft.They also probably don’t draft more than 8 guys a year…which we often seem to.

    Just saying, I like their model, but there’s got to be some built in pain somewhere.

    Ca$h-McMoney!,

    Lowetide,

    Cash to be quite honest I think after looking at over 25% of the teams in the league ( not all published and I did cherry pick ones that had a reputation for drafting or development)

    Here is a few of my compilation thoughts;

    -Having a steady GM is key.
    -Changing GMs tend to reset philosophies.
    -The philosophy of the minor league system and what they should do becomes apparent within a couple years of the GM hiring
    -minor league systems require patience and playing time
    -good minor league systems can get miscast as good drafting teams

    —————–

    6 years is not along look at minors but I wanted a glimpse and a number of teams.

    I am not sure I would regard Detroit as a great drafting team, rather a very patient team that looks for certain traits In its players.

    I looked back farther on Detroit and they tend to be very good at finding and or developing 2/3 line players. Is that because they have 1st line players or because they draft for skill while knowing a draft pick outside of the 1st round is rare to become a top line player?

    Steve Yzerman’s system in Tampa is also the most similar in that they look for skill through many different channels and look to add into the system.

    Detroit has a lot of misses in their draft history but also enough hits that it more than compensates. If their is “pain” I would think Detroit would like more top 10 picks to grab elite talent. Not many teams trade those picks though.

  9. Hammers says:

    Are we sure they actually chose this or is it the Euros they added 20 years ago that pulled them int a philosophy that works for them . Surely you at some point need a good team to stay on track .basing it on a 4-5 year turn around with players drafted . Sometimes you fall into a way of doing business .

  10. RexLibris says:

    Lowetide:
    Cash: In fairness, Detroit passing on the opportunity to sign a second-round pick and Edmonton doing the same are not close to the same thing. Evaluation is an issue for the Oilers. Recent example: Chicago has a Swedish defenseman on their 50-man roster they’re exciting about—and the Oilers drafted him in the fourth-round 2012.

    Speaking of 2012, I wrote this that fall http://oilersnation.com/2012/10/10/are-the-red-wings-primed-for-a-fall-from-grace

    I’ve argued in the past here that the Red Wings are actually a rather average team at the draft table but that they’re exceptional status is when they hit on a pick it has often enough turned out to be a homerun/grand slam.

    Here’s an excerpt that pretty much sums up my opinion on the Detroit mystique, the reputation of Drafting vs it’s under-appreciated cousin Development, and why we need to do a better job of recognizing what the Red Wings do well and what they do not:

    In 1996 they drafted nine players. Jesse Wallin, taken 26th overall was the only one selected to ever play in the NHL – 49 games, 2 assists, and 34 penalty minutes. The following year they drafted eight players and not one of them played 100 NHL games. Yuri Butsayev had the best career with 14 points over 99 games. In 1998 they drafted ten players, two of whom would become NHL players, Jiri Fischer and Datsyuk. Not bad work there, but of the other eight only one managed to play even 2 NHL games. Zetterberg keeps the 1999 draft from being a complete bust for the team. 2001 was a waste of time for Detroit at the draft table with seven picks and only two players even making the NHL, neither one managing more than 71 games.

    More recent drafts cannot be determined yet as the Red Wings are notorious for letting their prospects ripen on the vine, so to speak. They are only now beginning to rotate in players that were drafted sometimes as many as six or seven years ago. Brendan Smith, their blue-chip defensive prospect who is likely to become an NHL regular this season was drafted in 2007 and has played some of the fewest games in the NHL in his first-round draft class

    I’d still pay in souls for Hakan Andersson to scout for my team, but teams that look at Detroit’s results need to parse out how they arrive there and take into account their mistakes.

  11. Bank Shot says:

    RexLibris:
    I’ve argued in the past here that the Red Wings are actually a rather average team at the draft table but that they’re exceptional status is when they hit on a pick it has often enough turned out to be a homerun/grand slam.

    I don’t get that argument based on Detroit’s last decade plus of drafting.

    They had 12 second round picks from 2000 to 2010.

    Six of those have already been giant successes having played over 400 NHL games each.
    Jury is still out on a few. I think Tatar will make it for sure.

    That means Detroit had at least a 58% chance of picking a player that would play 400+ NHL games out of the second round over that decade.

    That’s just extraordinary. Better than most teams in the first round I’d wager.

  12. geowal says:

    If you look at just their first round, when you should see some success, they seem truly awful. This goes all the way back to the 80s.
    Edit: looked again, guess it’s alright, think was into several beers last time I checked and just remembered the stinkers

  13. kinger_OIL says:

    Awesome stuff!

    – What would our AHL team average project to look like this year I wonder? Using the top5 model here?

    – Any insight into D in the AHL SuperNova?: Not sure what a good metric is for them using this type of method.

  14. Bank Shot says:

    geowal:
    If you look at just their first round, when you should see some success, they seem truly awful

    I don’t see it. From 2000-2010 they’ve only had 5 first round picks. Their highest pick was 19. A few were borderline second round territory.

    2000-Kronwall Top pairing defenseman.
    2005-Kindl Borderline NHL D-man. 248 games played.
    2007-B.Smith. NHL defense regular
    2008-McCollum. Might be an NHL goalie. Hasn’t gotten a shot yet.
    2010-Sheahan. Established third line NHL forward.

    So one “bust” AKA borderline NHLer out of 5 picks thus far. That’s balanced out by one star player.

    At worst they will be 3 out of 5 if McCollum busts, although Kindl counts as a successful pick by games played if that’s your metric of success.

    Pretty damn good for drafting out of the bottom of the first.

  15. RexLibris says:

    Bank Shot: I don’t get that argument based on Detroit’s last decade plus of drafting.

    They had 12 second round picks from 2000 to 2010.

    Six of those have already been giant successes having played over 400 NHL games each.
    Jury is still out on a few. I think Tatar will make it for sure.

    That means Detroit had at least a 58% chance of picking a player that would play 400+ NHL games out of the second round over that decade.

    That’s just extraordinary. Better than most teams in the first round I’d wager.

    Keep in mind, I wrote that three years ago and mention in the article that you almost need to extend the evaluation embargo on their draft picks from five years to seven or even ten because they keep them in the development phase longer than most organizations.

    Up to that point the Red Wings seemed to miss on a lot of prospects but those they connected on were by and large impact players.

    The overall draft strategy, as recently noted by Andersson, is that it is the GM’s job to find bottom six guys and the scout’s job to find the prospects for the top end of the rotation.

    I have absolutely no qualms with that philosophy.

  16. geowal says:

    Bank Shot,

    Yeah, I’ll agree with that assessment, particularly for that window of time. I was thinking more of the 1992-1996 stretch, with only Anders Eriksson being a player (572 games). The other 4 at about 50 games or less, which I would call insignificant for a 1st rounder.

  17. Bank Shot says:

    geowal:
    Bank Shot,

    Yeah, I’ll agree with that assessment, particularly for that window of time.I was thinking more of the 1992-1996 stretch, with only Anders Eriksson being a player (572 games).The other 4 at about 50 games or less, which I would call insignificant for a 1st rounder.

    Sure, but in fairness to the Wings those were generally some really shitty draft years. For example the best forwards to come out of the 1996 draft. Daniel Briere, Matt Cullen, Dainus Zubrus, and JP Dumont.

    That’s just crapbag.

  18. Bank Shot says:

    RexLibris: Keep in mind, I wrote that three years ago and mention in the article that you almost need to extend the evaluation embargo on their draft picks from five years to seven or even ten because they keep them in the development phase longer than most organizations.

    Up to that point the Red Wings seemed to miss on a lot of prospects but those they connected on were by and large impact players.

    The overall draft strategy, as recently noted by Andersson, is that it is the GM’s job to find bottom six guys and the scout’s job to find the prospects for the top end of the rotation.

    I have absolutely no qualms with that philosophy.

    Yeah, it makes sense. They seem to have hit on a fair collection of impact and role players.

  19. supernova says:

    kinger_OIL:
    Awesome stuff!

    – What would our AHL team average project to look like this year I wonder?Using the top5 model here?

    – Any insight into D in the AHL SuperNova?: Not sure what a good metric is for them using this type of method.

    kinger_OIL,

    Good Questions Kinger

    The reason k used the top 5 model is because Time on Ice stats don’t really exist to us as fans. We can do projectables which tend to be very good like the team at Tend the farm has done.

    The top 5 for the condors I would expect this season to be

    Draisatl ( don’t know how long he is down there but I expect him to be)
    Miller
    R Hamilton
    Hunt
    Yakimov

    Maybe an outside chance on a new player like
    Slepshyev

    As for the D I am still not sure.

    Points in itself are not the major projector for an AHL Defenceman becoming a NHL regular, a lot of that is dependant on PP time and coaching style.

    Also like the Condors the veteran D taking those chances from the prospect D.

    To me it might actually be as simple as AHL GP or simply at-bats.

  20. supernova says:

    RexLibris: Keep in mind, I wrote that three years ago and mention in the article that you almost need to extend the evaluation embargo on their draft picks from five years to seven or even ten because they keep them in the development phase longer than most organizations.

    Up to that point the Red Wings seemed to miss on a lot of prospects but those they connected on were by and large impact players.

    The overall draft strategy, as recently noted by Andersson, is that it is the GM’s job to find bottom six guys and the scout’s job to find the prospects for the top end of the rotation.

    I have absolutely no qualms with that philosophy.

    RexLibris,

    Once again Rex and I agree on things.

    The crux of Red Wings success to me is Pateince and Drafting for Skill.

    They believe in certain player traits and draft for that. And then wait until that player is passed College graduation age before they sit the light of the NHL.

  21. supernova says:

    Hammers:
    Are we sure they actually chose this or is it the Euros they added 20 years ago that pulled them int a philosophy that works for them . Surely you at some point need a good team to stay on track .basing it on a 4-5 year turn around with players drafted . Sometimes you fall into a way of doing business .

    Sure I think I have commented on that frequently.

    Most of the teams regarded as good development teams currently have certain features.
    Like a Top line and a stable GM.

    Whether they fell into or not doesn’t really matter to me, But the fact they stuck with the system is the bigger deal.

    If you compare the Detroit minor leagues to the Chicago minor league system, most betting men would place there money on Detroit being more sustainable. The difference is what they have on the top club.

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