RE 15-16 PETER CHIARELLI: VOICES CARRY

by Lowetide

We all think we’re special, have that extra bit of intelligence or aptitude. Take me. I think I can sing. Seriously. Now, I CAN’T sing but there’s nothing in me that yells STOP! when given a chance to wail in public. Weddings, karaoke, you name it. I hit all the notes, just not in the right order. Here’s one: TAKE A LESSON! Learn! If you really want to become something, do the work. Talent is a big damn deal, but sweat and experience are extremely important. And just because you’ve been a great employee in one area does NOT mean you’re qualified to manage. In an unrelated story, let’s talk about the history of the GM position in Edmonton.

  1. You like him already. I’ve been waiting forever to see the Oilers hire a GM with the kind of resume that suggests he’s ready for ALL of the challenges ahead. Wrote about him many times, didn’t know his name.
  2. Should Chiarelli have slow played his first summer? Why? The McDavid lottery changed everything and that made all of this both possible and necessary.
  3. What did Chiarelli do well? I think Andrej Sekera and Cam Talbot were home runs and he got a more versatile (speed, offense) center in Mark Letestu. Gryba has elements that were somewhat rare among the incumbent blue, so there was good work done in my opinion.
  4. Why didn’t Chiarelli wait on Marincin? I think Chiarelli had a read on what Edmonton lacked and what they needed, and Todd McLellan would have had input too. If you look at what the two men added, there’s a combination of skill, grit and experience. Someone had to go, Marincin was the first young blue sent away, but he won’t be the last. I would have preferred keeping MM but we’ll see how things progress. I have a feeling we’ll be watching the big man for a few years in an NHL uniform.
  5. Who did he overpay for? I think Chiarelli gave up more than value in the deals for Griffin Reinhart, the No. 107 pick, and Lauri Korpikoski. All three deals can be justified and many here agree with my post using Scott Cullen’s draft assessment of the Reinhart trade (that post suggests the value was better than I’m implying here). These were overpay deals.
  6. What do Cullen’s numbers show? Edmonton received a 52% chance at a top 4D in exchange for a 24% and a 12% chance at a top 6F. And they moved the process up by three years in acquiring Reinhart.
  7. That’s a good trade based on math. What’s the problem? It was too much.
  8. You’re a stubborn ass. Look, everyone reading this knows I’m stubborn. Let’s move on.
  9. Who did he pay full price for? Free-agent signings Andrej Sekera and Mark Letestu were good adds but were full price. That’s not a criticism, just an observation. There were more than the usual number of bargains in free agency, I think it’s fair to raise half an eyebrow here but nothing more.
  10. Who did he pay less than full value for? The Cam Talbot trade was (in my opinion) his best work. I honestly felt Slats would take him out to the woodshed and I do NOT buy that ‘helping my old team’ BS from Sather. Chiarelli called the old man’s bluff and good on him. More please. If Gryba turns into a useful NHL player, the price was not high to get him. Anders Nilsson was a scream bargain, absolute gold no matter the outcome.
  11. Is that a good average? Don’t know. We’ll have to wait and see. I think we can say with authority that Chiarelli addressed the major needs (G and D) during the summer.
  12. Does he have work to do? Hell yes, but magic wands aren’t allowed in the NHL.
  13. Are you satisfied with his work this summer? Yes. Even the overpays made sense and he improved the club markedly up the middle. History tells us all bets are not equal, but I’m well pleased with Talbot, Sekera and McDavid up the middle as significant improvements.
  14. You give no credit for McDavid? No. That was the work of Mr. Daly, who should have a statue of his own outside the new rink. I do think Chiarelli used the right assets (draft picks) to get his work done, though. I also very much like some of his later picks.
  15. What could he do between now and Christmas? Find a way to get a RH top 4D on the roster, find a way to get out from under one of the blue (Ference is the most popular choice and there’s evidence to support that opinion). I’m not saying anything you don’t know here and I’m sure Chiarelli has in fact tried to get that defenseman. He’ll crack the case, but it may take some time.
  16. What would a misstep look like? I think the Marincin deal qualifies.
  17. What would a new misstep look like? I can’t see anything obvious. The Oilers won’t deal Talbot, Sekera, Klefbom, Fayne, Nurse, Reinhart, Hall, Pouliot, Nuge, McDavid, Eberle and are unlikely to deal Yakupov without a solid return (still think they may pump and dump).
  18. Should we worry about disasters around the corner? Don’t think so. Chiarelli is an established NHL GM, and unless there’s a situation (ala Seguin) that involves things outside hockey, I think we’re safe from addled thinking.
  19. What might we see this fall? I think Chiarelli is trying to improve the roster as we speak and we’ll eventually see that top 4D and maybe even a two-way winger (hell, he might be here now).
  20. When will it happen? Could be today or any time. I suspect we’ll see some of the young defensemen here this year, so that means a trade out no matter who comes in.
  21. Of the players in Bakersfield, who is most likely to be traded? The club has miles of defensemen so I believe that’s an area we might see movement.
  22. What kind of trade do you see coming? You know what I’m going to say.
  23. Oh lord. We’re going to talk three-for-one. Edmonton needs a bona fide RH D to play the rest of this decade and beyond (hopefully). It’s going to cost a lot. I still think the Oilers have a light on for Seabrook and if he reaches free agency I’ll bet they get their man. I believe there may be a chance to get Seabrook this fall via trade.
  24. When did the Islanders acquire Leddy and Boychuk? October 4.
  25. ‘Hawks are under the cap. Sure, but not by much.
  26. What would it cost? A lot. Chicago is good at these reload deals, it would probably be a redux of the Pronger trade.
  27. Brewer, Woywitka, Lynch? Sure, except Seabrook is UFA in 2016 so the return won’t involve Nurse, Klefbom or Reinhart imo.
  28. Wait, are you trading Nail here? I’m not trading anyone, just thinking out loud. I think there’s a better than average chance Seabrook is the target blue and also believe there’s a small, small chance it happens sooner than later.
  29. Why this song? It’s about a controlling relationship and a guy who worries about the wrong things. He’s saying shut up the neighbors will hear, but the important part of the moment (lost opportunity, lost relationship) passes unnoticed. It’s about decisions made in haste during emotional moments that have long reaching implications. It’s about losers and why they lose and it’s about watching someone or something you care about get treated badly. It’s one of the saddest songs I’ve ever heard and it’s exactly what the Oilers have been for most of this century. But there is hope.
  30. What kind of hope? In life and in sports, winning involves rational, intelligent decisions made without emotion—but rather the knowledge provided by due diligence, experience and creativity. It’s done by men who have learned about what to say at press conferences and what not to say, and who make their moves and then announce them. That’s my hope for Peter Chiarelli. I pray to the good lord he is the man from town. I believe he is that man.
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AsiaOil

I think this is exactly what happened and if it was known around the league – then Marincin’s trade value was essentially zero. The relationship between the team and this player was destroyed by the old mgmt and Marincin probably played a role in it as well. With a guy a sharp as Chia – if a deal looks off – then there is very likely back story. Just like with the Seguin deal and the hate the Boston old boys had for him. I like Marincin – but nobody who critiques the deal can explain the mismatch between the low return and their higher value for the player without resorting to Chia’s an idiot or a puppet of the BOTB explanations – both ridiculous arguments. The real story is probably out there but just not public.

Woodguy:
Here’s something for everyone who is arguing the Marincin trade to chew on:

What if he told the Oilers we wouldn’t sign a contract with them?

It’s plausible. (I have no info on this)

He didn’t sign up new contract until the Leafs owned his rights.

Does that change the perception of the trade?

LT mentioned it before that Marincin might prefer playing in Euorpe to playing for the Oilers.

verdad2.0

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

You all miss the real strategic point.
Getting OEL needs to be a strategic imperative for the OIlers.
Its one thing to dismiss the notion , its another to actually consider what actual terms would work.
Its not a case that the asking price for OEL is infinite.

N64

ironsight:
I hammer on the merits of the Reinhart trade monthly, and I’m going to do it again this morning.In his final two seasons in the WHL, Reinhart’s GFON% was 70%.That is, when Reinhart was on the ice, the Oil Kings scored 70% of the 5v5 goals.by comparison, Nurse was in the range of 59% over his final two seasons.

Reinhart may not bring the flashy boxcars, but we know from watching him and from the scouting reports that his strengths are his defensive coverage, calm feet and ability to make smart plays with the puck under pressure.This player type has immense value.

As for the payment price, not only is Reinhart 3 years along in his development, he is substantially de-risked as compared to those two picks.His arrows have continued to point in the right direction since the day he was drafted.He dominated the WHL in his Draft+1 and Draft+2 seasons, made the Canadian WJHC team twice (the second time when he was only eligible to play half the team’s games because of a suspension), his AHL rookie season was a success (he outscored Klefbom from his rookie AHL season nearly 2:1) and he played 8 NHL games on a playoff-bound team.

Reinhart vs Nurse vs Klefbom will be a fascinating battle to watch for the next decade (Lord willing).

Excellent framing of the D transition by Young Willis:

http://oilersnation.com/2015/9/1/transitioning-to-the-new-defence

nurse starts in the A. reinhart can make the case to start with the Oilers. The rest of the transition and who spends time where as the year progress will be driven by performance (and errors) in games that count.

till_horcoff_is_coach

Chiarelli’s had a hell of a summer. It’s one thing to identify a target but another to get it done…. repeatedly.

Best move was Todd McLellan with a close second to Talbot (boy that was looking like at least the Oilers first for awhile). With TDog there is no longer any second guessing the coach, neither by the players nor by fans. It is a huge weight off everyone’s shoulders and they have no previous connections so good on him for identifying a fit, reaching out and getting it done even though there were many other options available.

MM was the low point, but most NHL teams don’t develop defensemen in packs. Klefbom, Nurse, and Reinhardt are the future top 4 and all look ready to play at some point next season. Where does that leave MM and how many kids can be developed at once without sacrificing the development of the whole lot?

Additionally, MM was telegraphed to be on his way out since training camp last season, so as ridiculous as it was that he got to the point where he did, I still put that as a Mactavish blunder above all else. Destroy a kid’s development and then wonder aloud why he is doing poorly before ditching him for pennies… the Oiler’s 21st century operation executed to a T. I wish they would’ve got more for him but much like the Dubnyk trade, it seems like the market for #5 D at the draft was a 4th rounder, so instead of evaluating the 4th evaluate that they choose grit and experience in Gryba over MM. Doesn’t make me like the trade but it is entirely reasonable and logical to move in that direction with the talent coming in this year.

I fear for Yak but no longer worry he will be ditched for a backup goalie just for the sake of shaking things up!!

G Money:
NOTHING the Oilers have short of McDavid will get OEL from Arizona.

To be fair to verdad, Hall + Nuge + Eberle at 50pct retained each + Nurse + 2016 1st and 2017 1st for OEL and cap dumps probably does get Maloney’s attention. He he.

G Money

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Yes, that’s why its only 10 or 15 to 2. If we knew Talbot was a sure thing and not just an outstanding bet, the 10x math means it would be 25 to 2.

G Money

verdad2.0: Strome is a non factor if Arizona cares about upgrading its offense in the short run.

Strome is the best C available in quite a few years short of McDavid or Eichel. He IS the piece that Arizona will build around up front.

Just as they will build around OEL on the back end.

If they trade OEL, that means they’re settling in for a looooooooooooooooooooooong rebuild. They will be back to square one. They will be where the Oilers were the year they drafted RNH.

So why would they EVER care about upgrading offense in the short run? At all? For any reason?

This is the part you don’t seem to get. There is NO REASON for Arizona to want to improve their offense in the short term.

Not one.

Arizona has far fewer parts than Edmonton does as far as a rebuild goes.

The place where they have some strength, and where the timing is right, is with a defense anchored by OEL. He’s good enough and young enough to build around.

What piece other than McDavid would make them give that up?

And before you answer that, let me answer that for you: NO PIECE OTHER THAN MCDAVID. No piece. Maloney is not stupid.

SWEENEY is stupid, and Chiarelli already went that route, and Sweeney handed Hamilton to the Flames out of stupidity and spite.

There is NO reason to expect the same level of idiocy from Maloney. None.

NOTHING the Oilers have short of McDavid will get OEL from Arizona.

G Money:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

I guess that’s where we differ.You rate it as 2.5 to 2.

To my mind, the Sekera and Talbot arrows dwarf (10x or more) in value the Marincin and one-year-of-cap-space issues.

So to me it looks more like 10 or 15 to 2.Not on raw count.On expected value.

I don’t know how you can say that about Talbot at this stage. Yes, I’ve read all the work you, Woodguy, Swedish and others have put into it. It’s a nice bet for sure and I like the price, but we don’t know how he will do in a 50-60 game x multi-season workload yet.

As I said, if he pans out, and he is re-signed to a reasonable deal, my assessment of Chiarelli goes up by a lot.

Sekera has enough of a track record where I think the deal has a high probability of working out. I was all for it and am glad it got done.

verdad2.0

G Money,

What Maloney thinks a 2016 to 2017 first round OIler pick is worth one only can know if it is offered.

Strome is a non factor if Arizona cares about upgrading its offense in the short run.

JD_Wry

Younger Oil: comment was on a TSN article

I noticed a while ago that there were comments posted on a TSN article by someone with the handle of ‘Sylver Foxx’. Could it be?

Younger Oil

This following comment was on a TSN article, I got a good chuckle out of it so I thought I’d share:

“I watched McDavid play for Erie and he reminded me a lot of Daigle, I think that Marner has a lot more potential than him.”

G Money

wheatnoil,

Yep. The Sedin’s have become almost a case study in OZS.

The ZS effect and the HSCA numbers (along with the flotsam and jetsam of Eller’s face and Taylor’s knee) give me some modest hope that overall the Gryba-Marincin swap is a sideways move in defensive capability, BUT in the context of this team and its proclivity for failing to break cycles and also giving up dangerous chances by the bucketload, it may be an upgrade.

G Money

speeds,

Yes, exactly. Playing to their strengths.

G Money

Woodguy: There’s also the thought that if a player has a tough times starting a zone exit, its better to start him in the ozone…..

Yes, the flip side is also true:

– you might be getting d zone starts because you suck at offense

– you might be getting o zone starts because you suck at defense

And I’ve put those in a pejorative sentence structure, but that might just be a matter of putting players in a position to succeed. You play to their strengths – even if their strengths are weak!

The meta-point is that while ZS information is useful (necessary you might even say) for assessing defenseman, you have to caveat that by recognizing the influence of coaching decisions when it comes to ZS.

bendelson

Soup Fascist: Another fun fact: she is married to Sean Penn’s brother. Aimee Mann was actually pretty hot in the ’80s in spite of the snaggletooth and platinum hair.LT, I thought you chose this song because of the line“But I’m frightened of the things I might find” …. as that was what Chiarelli uttered when he started looking at his D corps.

Yes, Micheal Penn is a fine musician in his own right.
Yes, she remains an attractive women to this very day.

Oh and yeah… go Oilers!

wheatnoil

G Money:
wheatnoil,

I think what can confound the analysis is the coaching decisions behind the numbers.

Good offensive defensemen don’t get good offense because they get gifted ozone starts, they get gifted ozone starts because they are good offensive defensemen.

This is part of the the conundrum that is Justin Schultz.It’s that classic hockey riddle: which came first, the CorsiChicken or the ZSeggs?

I agree. Taking the extreme example, when Vigneault was coaching the Canucks, the Sedins didn’t get points only because of their extreme offensive zone starts… it just helped that the coach was putting them in a position to maximize their strengths.

My intention was more to point out Gryba’s ranking relative to the rest of the guys who weren’t getting cherry minutes, without necessarily saying he was better than the offensive zone start guys. Just pointing out that the guys ahead of him were playing very different roles than he was.

wintoon

If IRC, Anaheim iced a largely young and relatively inexperienced D Group last season. They appeared to do well and did not pay an exceedingly high price in the scheme of things for doing so.

How does the Anaheim D compare to the Oiler D if both Nurse and Reinhart are in and Ference and Nikitin are out?

speeds

G Money,

It may not be easy to figure out the exact amount that it helps, But I think the idea is that if you have 2 D, 1 of which is way better offensively while the other way better defensively, you get better team results by giving the offensive guy 75% OZS and the defensive D 25% OZS as opposed to both 50/50, even if splitting them that way would give 2 identical D a difference in results as well.

Woodguy

G Money:
wheatnoil,

I think what can confound the analysis is the coaching decisions behind the numbers.

Good offensive defensemen don’t get good offense because they get gifted ozone starts, they get gifted ozone starts because they are good offensive defensemen.

This is part of the the conundrum that is Justin Schultz.It’s that classic hockey riddle: which came first, the CorsiChicken or the ZSeggs?

There’s also the thought that if a player has a tough times starting a zone exit, its better to start him in the ozone…..

Woodguy

wheatnoil,

Awesome stuff!!

Back to the SCA/60 WOWY, I’d like to see Gryba away from Boroweicki, I bet everything moves up a notch.

Also,

Rumour that Weircioch was available before McLean was fired (he was HS’ing him)

That would have been a nice pick up.

Wouldn’t have needed to trade for Reinhardt and would have cost a lot less.

G Money

wheatnoil,

I think what can confound the analysis is the coaching decisions behind the numbers.

Good offensive defensemen don’t get good offense because they get gifted ozone starts, they get gifted ozone starts because they are good offensive defensemen.

This is part of the the conundrum that is Justin Schultz. It’s that classic hockey riddle: which came first, the CorsiChicken or the ZSeggs?

Woodguy

LoDog: I was referring to the Oilersnation quote. You did use 3 stats and your arguments were sound.

I think sometimes people forget that the Oilers also have these stats and many more to look at when evaluating players.

On another note, Nikitin and Schultz do not belong in the same sentence as Ference. No, no, no.

Apologies, my mistake.

Agreed on the DMen too…

Soup Fascist

bendelson: A few more fun facts.She was in The Big Lebowski and IFC’s Portlandia.Now you know a little more about AImee Mann.

Another fun fact: she is married to Sean Penn’s brother.

Aimee Mann was actually pretty hot in the ’80s in spite of the snaggletooth and platinum hair.

LT, I thought you chose this song because of the line

“But I’m frightened of the things I might find”

…. as that was what Chiarelli uttered when he started looking at his D corps.

SwedishPoster

verdad2.0:
Adam Wu,

Would never come to that.
Hall and picks would be in the range of what it would logcially take to execute this trade.

Hall and picks won’t get you OEL. Not close. Maloney is no idiot. He knows the value of a #1D and he’s got one at a steal if a deal who is likely to be a Norris candidate for the next decade. He ain’t flipping that for a left winger who’s missed time with injury pretty much every year of his career so far, elite skillset or not that won’t get you a young top 10-15 D. Especially considering Arizona lacking good D prospects in their system.
Hall and picks won’t get you OEL. You should write that a thousand times on the blackboard.

wheatnoil

Woodguy,

Also, using that same analysis on Gryba.

Zone Starts (% of offensive to defensive zone starts):

Gryba 42.9%
Borowiecki 43.5%
Cowen 45.9%
Phillips 47.9%
Ceci 50.5%
Karlsson 52.8%
Wiercoch 55.5%
Methot 56.1%

As we knew already, Gryba was given toughest of zone starts. Note the trio of Karlsson, Wiercoch, and Methot getting the relative cherry minutes.

RelCorsi

Patrick.Wiercioch 5.16
Erik.Karlsson 4.47
Marc.Methot 4.02
Cody.Ceci -1.75
Jared.Cowen -3.15
Eric.Gryba -3.82
Mark.Borowieck -4.92
Chris.Phillips – 5.50

Gryba doesn’t look great here, but you can definitely see the effect of zone starts. Lately the line of thinking is that zone starts don’t have that much of an impact, but I’m not totally convinced. Still, it’s not like Gryba comes out looking rosy.

Scoring Chances

Marc.Methot 20.88
Patrick.Wiercioch 23.78
Erik.Karlsson 24.56
Eric.Gryba 25.79
Mark.Borowiecki 26.62
Cody.Ceci 26.73
Jared.Cowen 26.74
Chris.Phillips 29.14

Huh, interesting. Gryba climbs up a couple spots and now the only people ahead of him had 52% or greater zone starts. (Also, Phillips looks done by this analysis!)

High Danger Scoring Chances

Marc.Methot 10.99
Patrick.Wiercioch 13.57
Erik.Karlsson 13.73
Eric.Gryba 13.99
Jared.Cowen 15.14
Cody.Ceci 15.43
Mark.Borowiecki 15.46
Chris.Phillips 15.97

There Gryba is again, but with greater separation between him and the rest of the pack. It’s the offensive zone starts guys and then Gryba, despite his mountain of defensive zone starts, pulling ahead of everyone else.

Gryba appears to be the anti-Marincin. He’s good at limiting scoring chances (and high danger scoring chances) in his own zone but perhaps not as good at driving possession (via zone entries, for instance) as Marincin.

Personally, I’d prefer to have both. However, this appears to be what the trade adds up to on the ice.

G Money

verdad2.0:
G Money,
What it means is that Hall and picks would be within any reasonable “bid – ask” range to get OEL.

Oh I’m fascinated.

Taylor Hall and … which picks?

Once you’ve explained those picks, and estimated their ranges (given the Oilers will suddenly be a playoff team with OEL, picks are worth a lot less), please do explain the thought process behind why Maloney will be tempted to trade his declared key elite defensive piece of the rebuild for an elite left winger and middling picks.

Or to put it another way: please explain why a smart guy like Maloney would voluntarily put his team in the same place that the Oilers are now, a place that you feel is hopeless and contemptible due to the lack of OEL?

And by “same place,” I of course mean “much worse place”, because they have Strome instead of McDavid.

LoDog

Woodguy: 1 stat is one more than you used in your riveting analysis.

I also used 3 stats.

3!

I was referring to the Oilersnation quote. You did use 3 stats and your arguments were sound.

I think sometimes people forget that the Oilers also have these stats and many more to look at when evaluating players.

On another note, Nikitin and Schultz do not belong in the same sentence as Ference. No, no, no.

Woodguy

Melman:
Woodguy,

Thanks WG – that’s a very interesting take on MM’s effectiveness.Makes me wonder if some of the willingness to move MM down the road came from Dellow analysis that produced a similar conclusion and not just because of the sideburns.

I’d imagine that Dellow has access to in-house stats that are more detailed than Waronice’s metrics.

I’d also imagine that they’d show similar things about Marty.

Woodguy

wheatnoil: I think this is the key to the Marincin debate. When looking at D-men, the focus tends to be on what they do in the defensive zone. However, stopping the flow up-stream can pay huge dividends down the road.

Also, Klefbom looks awfully dreamy via RelCorsi, but not as strong via the scoring chance metrics (though not as bad as Maricin). He’ll have to improve on those if he’s going to take on tougher minutes.

Klef had the advantage of getting Jultz OZS and QT too.

That makes all the difference in the world.

I’d like to see a SCA/60 WOWY and see how much Klef improves away from Jultz.

Ducey

Woodguy:
Ducey,

I don’t understand the upset about Marincin.

Pouzar,

“Martin Marincin’s handling remains baffling in hindsight. All of his partners fared better with him. Schultz and Nikitin in particular struggled in certain situations but looked worlds better paired with the lanky Slovak; even Fayne in a tough minutes role improved next to Marincin. Instead, the Oilers constantly exhibited a preference for inferior veterans, and shipped away the player for a marginal return at this summer’s draft.”

That’s why.

Find good players.

Keep good players.

Gee, comparing Marincin’s Corsi against an expected Corsi given the centers he was playing with is so definitive. I hope that everyone notes that Willis stated that Nikitin and Schultz fared better than he expect too.

I am not sure how you can rely on this analysis, which Willis would admit is just a small part of the equation, and then rely on a bunch more stats 3 posts later that show Marincin has some real holes.

As I said, we are likely looking at a third pairing guy who is going to get passed by Nurse and Reinhart. Not worth getting worked up about.

verdad2.0

G Money,
What it means is that Hall and picks would be within any reasonable “bid – ask” range to get OEL.

G Money

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

I guess that’s where we differ. You rate it as 2.5 to 2.

To my mind, the Sekera and Talbot arrows dwarf (10x or more) in value the Marincin and one-year-of-cap-space issues.

So to me it looks more like 10 or 15 to 2. Not on raw count. On expected value.

rickithebear

linkfromhyrule: with the concerns over the cap, I just can’t see it happening.
Chia has made some bad moves, but more good ones.
Good Bets:
Talbot
Sekera
Reinhart (overpay, but not egregiously so)
Nilsson
Bad:
Marincin
On the fence/remains to be seen:
Letestu
Gordon
Gryba
Korpikoski

MacT:
trade MP+2nd -> Perron + switch 3rd&4th-> 16th 2015 + Klink

Signed Ference

Signed Gordon

Gazdic waivers

trade Smid; Roy for Horak; Brossoit

Traded DD for Hendricks Eakins swarm cost us best HS SV% goalie

Sign Bryz then trade to MIN for 4th

Traded for Scrivens

Traded Hemsky for 3rd 2015 and 5th 2014 (coughlin)

Trade Gagner for Purcell 20g 59P with elite players.

Trade 4th for Nikitin #7 2nd comp HSCA D. best 1st comp HSCA/60 in last 6 seasons.

Sign pouliot goal scoring 2 to 1 pocession retrieval Fwd.

Sign Fayne #1 HSCA/60 D

Trade Arco for Roy

Trade Petry to MTL 2nd and 4th (caleb jones)

Trade in principal for Talbot when lundquist injured. Sather stated he completed trade to edmonton based on prior agreement.

Won lottery secured 1st Pick (Mcdavid)

MacT drafts:
Nurse
Yakimov
Slepyshev
Platzer
Betker
Chase
Draisatl
Lagesson

PC
Sign Eetu laurikainen

Traded pit #16 (perron trade) and #33 for reinhart

Traded MTL #57 (petry trade), Ott # 79 (hemsky trade) And #184 for Talbot and #209 (piagyn)

Send STL 3rd (perron trade) for Tmac compensation.

Traded Marincin to TOR for Pit 4th #107 and Ross

Trade #107 and Ewanyk For Gryba

Trade Gordon For Korpikoski top 6 EVA fwd 2 to 1 pocession retrieval Fwd.

Sign Sekera #6 2nd comp HSCA D.

Sign Letestu top 100 EVG Fwd RH FO% center 3 to 1 Pocession retrieval FWD.

Trade Coughlin for Nilsson 1 of 2 years .8600+ HS SV%

G Money

verdad2.0: Hall and picks would be in the range of what it would logcially take to execute this trade.

I do not think logcially [sic] means what you think it means.

verdad2.0

Adam Wu,

Would never come to that.
Hall and picks would be in the range of what it would logcially take to execute this trade.

Material Elvis

Woodguy:

Marty helps move the puck in the right direction and that is valuable.

Marty isn’t good at own zone work and needs to get much better at it be be an everyday NHLer.

Fair?

This is very fair. I think if he had brought even a hint of offense, they would have kept him for this year (just speculating).

wheatnoil

Woodguy:
Marty helps move the puck in the right direction and that is valuable.

Marty isn’t good at own zone work and needs to get much better at it be be an everyday NHLer.

Fair?

I think this is the key to the Marincin debate. When looking at D-men, the focus tends to be on what they do in the defensive zone. However, stopping the flow up-stream can pay huge dividends down the road.

Also, Klefbom looks awfully dreamy via RelCorsi, but not as strong via the scoring chance metrics (though not as bad as Maricin). He’ll have to improve on those if he’s going to take on tougher minutes.

Pouzar

Woodguy: I had it from Cory S’s project.Marincin was elite (15% denial, 95th percentile or so)I’m sure that a big part of what makes him suck a good corsi player.

Perfect thx

Woodguy

LoDog:
Riveting analysis on Marincin using one stat and not a very good one at that.

Marincin wasn’t even good in the AHL last year. Hello Europe in a couple years,

1 stat is one more than you used in your riveting analysis.

I also used 3 stats.

3!

Woodguy

Pouzar:
Woodguy,

Fair indeed. And it fits the eye but it’s nothing out of whack for his level of comp, zone startsand 80 odd games of NHL experience no?

Didn’t you or G have some “zone entry denial” data for Oiler d-men?
I think this was another area MM was quite exceptional at.

I had it from Cory S’s project.

Marincin was elite (15% denial, 95th percentile or so)

I’m sure that a big part of what makes him such a good corsi player.

Adam Wu

I give 25% odds that Nikitin, and 40% odds that Shultz, with McLellan’s coaching, will make Verdad eat his words.

Ference, though, is a black hole, and Verdad can take that one to the bank, now and forever.

Adam Wu

NSF is only a stellar mass blackhole compared to the galactic black hole that was goaltending last year.

Last year was the goaltending.

It was the goaltending.

It was the goaltending.

It was the goaltending.

Adam Wu

verdad2.0:
Adam Wu,

Improve the defense by major trades in the next month. Only MacDavid is exempt.

Would you offer the whole NHL roster, every player, except McDavid, for OEL?

Then enter the season with OEL and McDavid, and the AHL lineup?

Yes or no?

Melman

NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

I think the only way you can call moving MM for a 4th is a bad arrow is if you say you would have rather kept him than move him for a mid round pick. The question then is what’s you minimum return that would get you to agree to trade him. His value on the open market was what is was, as it’s reasonable to think PC traded him for the highest return he was offered (unlike his old pals in Boston).

Perhaps consideration was given to Nurse, GR and maybe even Davidson knocking on the door and the idea that they only wanted to break in so many young players at one time. Just spit-balling.

Melman

Woodguy,

Thanks WG – that’s a very interesting take on MM’s effectiveness. Makes me wonder if some of the willingness to move MM down the road came from Dellow analysis that produced a similar conclusion and not just because of the sideburns.

Pouzar

Woodguy,

Fair indeed. And it fits the eye but it’s nothing out of whack for his level of comp, zone starts and 80 odd games of NHL experience no?

Didn’t you or G have some “zone entry denial” data for Oiler d-men?
I think this was another area MM was quite exceptional at.

verdad2.0

LoDog,

Guess you are a fan of the NSF black hole of defensive ability?

Woodguy,

All very fair.

I guess I am asking the same degree of balanced fairness to be applied to Chiarelli so far.

As I see it:

-Marincin was sent away for lower value than could be expected, at a time after the club had spent considerable assets and time in bringing him along. (Bad arrow)

-Talbot was acquired for much lower value than could be expected. (Good arrow)
The question is now whether he can deliver (if he does, additional good arrow for correctly evaluating the player) and then be re-signed (additional good arrow for good value)

-Reinhart was acquired for fair-to-high value (YMMV) (Small good arrow: Good arrow for identifying the need, slight negative arrow for paying full value+ and this requires further assessment). This becomes a good arrow if Reinhart delivers on his promise regardless of what Barzal ever does, IMO.

-Failure to clear out any meaningful cap space (Bad arrow).

-Signing Sekera to a contract (Good arrow: I’d rather pay full value for the #1 option than go the Nikitin route of last summer).

That’s 2.5 good arrows vs 2 bad ones in my books, with no potential bad arrows on the horizon, but 2.5 more good arrows potentially if Reinhart and Talbot pan out. That would make it 5 vs 2 by my completely unscientific count, making Chia a very strong GM.

But at this stage, he’s better than the other guys we’ve had for sure, and I’m happy to have him so far, but he hasn’t been perfect by any means, either.

verdad2.0

Marincin was destroyed in Edmonton due to the vanity and cruelty of MacTavish and Eakins.
Did these two ever look at the play of NSF?
We know they did not objectively.
At least, Eakins is gone.