NAIL YAKUPOV, FIRST-PERSON SHOOTER

Beginning next week, Todd McLellan will get a good look at the talent available to him this season. One area I suspect he’ll be paying close attention to? Shooters. The Oilers aren’t overwhelmed with shooting forwards (or blue) and that’s going to change (San Jose shoots a lot, 260 more times than Edmonton or about three more SOG per game). The first stop along the way? Rookie camp.

PROJECTED ROOKIE CAMP ROSTER (NOT OFFICIAL)

  1. G Laurent Brossoit—Never bet on a goalie, but he has nice arrows.
  2. G Eetu Laurikainen—Can’t wait to see how good he is.
  3. G Keven Bouchard—Junior goalie will get a look in Penticton
  4. G Jordan Papirny—Confirmation of attendance on Guy Flaming’s Pipeline Show
  5. D Darnell Nurse—Someone’s worst nightmare, and he’s an Oiler!!!
  6. D Ben Betker—Big, strong, pretty fast. Raw, interesting blue
  7. D Joey Laleggia—I bet he rocks Penticton
  8. D Caleb Jones—Turned heads at Orientation camp. Very mobile.
  9. D Ethan Bear—The beginning of a big year for 2015 pick.
  10. D Kevin Davis—Mobile defender, NHL.com lists him as TC invite
  11. D Colton Waltz—Tough defender. NHL.com lists him as TC invite
  12. D Loik Leveille—There’s a chance they sign him. NHL.com list
  13. C Connor McDavid—We’ll remember this fall for a long, long time.
  14. C Leon Draisaitl—Leon AND McDavid at rookie camp is unfair.
  15. C Kyle Platzer—I think he may see time on the wing. Watch for this guy.
  16. C Alexis Loiseau—Penticton will be a great opportunity for him to show well
  17. C Marco Roy—He played well at rookie camp during normal times a year ago.
  18. C Tyler Soy—Skill F, NHL.com lists him as TC invite
  19. C Cole Linaker—C from the WHL, NHL.com lists him as TC invite
  20. L Anton Slepyshev—The best winger on the team if Leon stays at pivot
  21. L Kale Kessy—May be in Penticton due to lost 2014-15 season
  22. L Connor Rankin—Rugged winger can score.
  23. L Braden Christoffer—Tough, undersized and skilled.
  24. R Greg Chase—Enormous opportunity for this young man. I bet he’s ready right now.
  25. F Rihards Bukarts—Little ball of something else. NHL.com lists him as TC invite
  26. R Cole Sanford—Outstanding scorer, on the NHL.com list.

SHOTS-PER-GAME (WHERE AVAILABLE)

  1. D Joey Laleggia—139 shots in 37 NCAA games (3.76)
  2. C Connor McDavid—21 shots in 7 WJC games (3.00)
  3. C Alexis Loiseau—198 shots in 68 QMJHL games (2.91)
  4. D Loik Leveille—189 shots in 68 QMJHL games (2.78)
  5. C Marco Roy—158 shots in 59 QMJHL games (2.68)
  6. R Rihards Bukarts—145 shots in 62 Russian Jr games (2.34)
  7. L Anton Slepyshev—129 shots in 58 KHL games (2.22)
  8. C Kyle  Platzer—8 shots in 4 AHL games (2.00)
  9. D Darnell Nurse—14 shots in eight AHL games, including playoffs (1.75)
  10. R Greg Chase—14 shots in nine AHL games, including playoffs (1.56)
  11. C Leon Draisaitl—49 shots in 37 NHL games (1.32)
  12. D Caleb Jones—26 shots in 25 USHL games (1.04)

Clearly there’s some major issues here in terms of sample size and league quality, but I think we can probably agree that Joey Laleggia is going to get noticed—and might get a power-play push in Bakersfield (or in the ECHL, should it come to it).

McDavid’s number comes from the World Juniors and of course that’s not going to be a terribly accurate view. I included it because the one area that gets mentioned a lot is McDavid’s shooting (and quality of shot). Slepyshev’s number sure looks good based on the quality of the league he played in.

Anyone else stand out?

OILERS SHOTS-PER-60 LEADERS 2014-15

  1. Iiro Pakarinen 11.85 (34 in 172 minutes)
  2. Taylor Hall 9.31 (158 in 1019 minutes)
  3. Nail Yakupov 9.16 (191 shots in 1251 minutes)
  4. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 7.23 (189 in 1569 minutes)
  5. Jordan Eberle 7.12  (183 in 1542 minutes)
  6. Benoit Pouliot 6.53 (105 in 964 minutes)
  7. Anton Lander 6.42 (61 in 570 minutes)
  8. Leon Draisaitl 6.26 (49 in 470 minutes)
  9. Teddy Purcell 6.22 (146 in 1407 minutes)
  10. Nikita Nikitin 5.82 (80 in 825 minutes)
  11. Justin Schultz 4.00 (122 in 1832 minutes)

The Pakarinen number is insane but let’s remember he played in only 17 games and had a 2.9 shooting percentage. I don’t recall but maybe he was shooting from the moon. Hall is where we should have expected but it’s interesting to see Yakupov also posting over 9 shots per 60 minutes. Nuge and Eberle follow and that’s mostly the end of the big-time players. Nikitin ranks No. 1 among blue, maybe we’ll see him on the PP more next year. One item that may become an issue but I love as a fan: LOOK at all the great passers!! Nuge, McDavid are sublime, Hall, Eberle are fabulous too and the Russian’s passing ability is underrated too. Add in Pouliot, Lander and Purcell and it’s getting ridiculous—PLUS I haven’t mentioned Leon. Lordy. If the Oilers keep all these guys they’re going to look like the old Russian teams of my youth (they were famous for passing even though everyone in the building knew they would shoot. Those Russian teams passed more pucks into empty nets than I’ve seen before or since).

BARONS SHOTS-PER-GAME LEADERS 2014-15

  1. Anton Lander 3.31
  2. Brad Hunt 3.23
  3. Iiro Pakarinen 3.21
  4. Andrew Miller 2.37
  5. Bogdan Yakimov 2.16

Lander shows well again, and Pakarinen is in there like a dirty shirt too. I think we should keep an eye on him this fall, might be a more prominent player than we think right now.

ronstadtlinda

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

Today we’re busy and it’s going to be fun! 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Dennis King, Oilogosphere Icon. Tom Brady beats the NFL and I’ll try to get Dennis to talk about the Blue Jays.
  • Michael Fornabaio, Soundin’ Off and Connecticut Post. We’ll talk about Griffin Reinhart, Anders Nilsson and their seasons in the Islanders system.
  • Sunil Agnihotri, Copper and Blue, The SuperFan. We’ll talk about the subject above—all those passers, who is going to shoot the damn puck?
  • Rob Soria, Vavel USA. We’ll talk about the US Open and wonderful performances from both Milos and Genie yesterday.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Talk soon!

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68 Responses to "NAIL YAKUPOV, FIRST-PERSON SHOOTER"

  1. Cahoon says:

    Iiro the Hero!

    I’m rooting for him.

  2. RexLibris says:

    Canucks posted their Young Stars roster yesterday.

    Presumably the host team gets first crack and the other invites post theirs shortly after.

    I’m excited to see who is on the list for the Flames and Jets.

    Compare and contrast is one of the highlights of this tournament.

  3. RexLibris says:

    Cahoon:
    Iiro the Hero!

    I’m rooting for him.

    His theme song should be Bonnie Tyler: Holding out for an Iiro.

  4. KSC10032 says:

    mmmm,… Linda Rondstadt.

    One hopes her recent health issues are lessened. She was one of my favourites, in the day, and one of the truly great voices in pop/rock/heritage music over a period of nearly 40 years. I wish her well.

    (BTW — LT and I are of the same vintage, so these reference points really strike a chord with me)

  5. Lloyd B. says:

    Is Draisaitl available for Penticton with the NHL games played last season? I thought one of the criteria was Calder eligibility which I do not believe he is able to win due to the number of NHL games played.

  6. wheatnoil says:

    Wild name Frederic Chabot as goalie development coach.— James Mirtle (@mirtle) September 3, 2015

    Chabot rejoins Dubnyk. Maybe the problem wasn’t the goalie coach? Guess we’ll see this year, but we’re down to equipment, new baby, MacT, or goalies are voodoo.

    Or all of the above.

  7. Hammers says:

    The two I want to see preseason are Paky and Sleppy . Both should get a shot at training camp.

  8. Ducey says:

    For what its worth, Matheson says Leon will be on the roster and the goalies will be Broissoit, Eetu, and Rimmer.

  9. Bootstrap Effexor says:

    wheatnoil: Chabot rejoins Dubnyk.

    Awesome. Perhaps we can now add “because Wilde” to our universal post hoc explanomater.

    Just stomp your foot three times while saying “tomater tomater explanomater” and you can sort anything.

  10. Pouzar says:

    wheatnoil: Chabot rejoins Dubnyk. Maybe the problem wasn’t the goalie coach? Guess we’ll see this year, but we’re down to equipment, new baby, MacT, or goalies are voodoo.Or all of the above.

    Head Trajectory. *shrug*

    http://ingoalmag.com/technique/dubnyk-bounces-back-head-trajectory-and-more/

    “And Dubnyk went out of way to stress the key role that former Edmonton Oilers goalie coach Frederic Chabot played in his development before being fired midway through this season.”

  11. PhrankLee says:

    My guy has been and is still Greg Chase.

    I’ve seen him play a couple of times and some video. He is so exactly what we need on R. Top to bottom our R has nothing near this guy’s intensity and commitment to a shift. We really need that on R. Nail is capable but I expect a more potent deployment of the one-timer.

    Anyway cheering like hell for this one.

  12. rickithebear says:

    Kmart read you blog;

    “Looking at these guys, it’s still fair to say that plenty of playoff teams don’t use one of their top EV guys on the pp(which surprises me).”

    You state the problem with most hockey fans.
    Especially on this board.
    look at the pretty offensive numbers.
    It is called defence.

    all goalies being equal.
    THE High quality shot account for 66.7% of the even goals.
    Medium and Low Quality account for 33.3% of even goals.

    Yet shots by volume average.
    27 shot/gm team ratio: 5 High quality Shots; 9 MedQS; 13 LowQS
    34 shot team ratio: 8 HQS; 11 MQS; 15 HCS
    % of perimeter shots are similiar. 76.4% to 81.5%
    there is a 60% variance in HQS (box protection) in an area were 66.7% of the even goals are scored.

    CA/60 leads to HSCA/60 leads to HQS/60:

    MacT:
    Signed the best HSCA/60 d in the game any comp.
    Fayne 1st comp 10.05 HSCA/60

    Signed the 7th best 2nd comp HSCA/60 d in the game.
    who got injured but still had EDM best 1st comp D performance in 6 years.
    Nikitin 2nd comp 12.43 HSCA/60

    Drafted Nurse 2gm 45.38 CA/60
    W/ fayne 1st comp 44.37
    w/ Schultz 3rd comp 36.80

    Tried to trade for Talbot.
    Agreement was in place.
    Lundquist got hurt so no trade.

    PC
    traded for Reinhart 3rd comp w/ NHL D 44.03 CA/60

    Traded for Gryba 2nd/3rd comp 13.99 HSCA/60 a top 60 rate

    Signed Sekera
    #6 2nd comp d in game 12.05 HSCA/60
    1st comp 13.51 HSCA/60 top 45 for any comp

    Traded for Talbot
    Sather stated a soft value market for goalies.
    So he traded Talbot to EDM cause of MacT agreement .
    Talbot was the only Goalie in game with .8615+ HQS Save% last 2 years.
    Dubnyk would have been but we will get to that.
    #1 HQS Save% goalie.

    Our 05-06 D
    Spacek 9.49 #2D
    Pronger 11.04 #12D
    Tarnstrom 11.26 #17 D
    Staios 12.51 #41D
    MAB 12.65 #44D
    Smith 12.70 #45 D
    Greene 12.79 #48 D
    Cross 12.79 #48D

  13. Rocknrolla says:

    Love seeing Iiro’s numbers that high. We need more shooters and shots!

    LT, do those numbers include PP?

    Would be nice to see what the numbers looked like last year for EV shots.

    Maybe someone can post the comparables?

  14. jonrmcleod says:

    Brady’s suspension vacated! Justice, baby! Justice!

    (This is for all of those Eskimos comments.)

  15. Woogie63 says:

    RexLibris,

    It will be a fun tournamnent to watch. IMO the order of merit will be;

    1) Jets
    2) Oilers
    3) Flames
    4) Canucks

  16. zatch says:

    rickithebear,

    All Goalies are not equal. This line of argument is worthless and has been shredded without any coherent response from you multiple times on this board.

    Shockingly Ricki, and I know this will be the biggest shock you have ever received in your entire life, goals from defencemen count on the scoreboard! Crazy, right? I even double checked the rule book, just for you.

  17. Cahoon says:

    RexLibris,

    I love that song!

    You could also change that song from the Hercules cartoon disney did to “from zero to Iiro”

  18. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woogie63,

    Could be. The Jets have some great goaltending depth, no question, and some real interesting players up front.

    The Jets reliance on Pavelec all these years is one of the great tragedies of the NHL in my opinion.

  19. Pouzar says:

    jonrmcleod: Brady’s suspension vacated! Justice, baby! Justice!(This is for all of those Eskimos comments.)

    *smashes phone*

    Steelers Fan here.

  20. kinger_OIL says:

    – I’ve been saying for a few years that the NFL is at it’s peak in terms of cultural reach in North-America:

    – awareness of concussions, and society moves away from the sport slowly

    – internet TV: over-the-top solutions, Networks losing their monopoly

    – Really bad NFL management (this Brady thing, no matter where you are, is just plain silly)

    – Media awareness of all the bad apples in the NFL

    – Superbowl will still be huge, but has reached peak audience for sure

    GOILERS!!!

  21. G Money says:

    zatch,

    Lord knows I’ve given Ricki a hard time (not unfairly) about his often wonky use and interpretation of statistics.

    But in this case, I don’t think Ricki is declaring all goalies to be equal. I think that line is intended to be interpreted as “across all goalies” or “for the average goalie”.

    I remain convinced that Ricki is an *actual* bear, which means you not only have to make allowances for the conceptual translation from Bear to English, but also its bloody hard to type with those goddamn claws.

  22. Rocknrolla says:

    Also LT, great to have Michael Fornabaio on. Really interested to hear first hand how he did down in Bridgeport! And how Nilsson looked, specifically in his 3rd year, 13-14, which he says was his most consistent if the 3.

    ????

  23. G Money says:

    Pouzar,

    Wait a second. In addition to being a Jets fan, I just assumed you were also a Blue Bombers fan.

    *ducks and runs*

  24. Pouzar says:

    Nice article here by Yost:

    http://www.tsn.ca/talent/how-analytics-forecast-future-success-and-failure-1.355108

    Nothing we don’t already know but well laid out for “those” people touting a “certain” team.

    “Here’s the raw math: 87 per cent of our “Low Corsi%/High Point%” teams saw their point totals drop in the following season. The average variance for one of these teams is a drop of 12.5 points. For basically every team, that kind of change can mean the difference between a playoff berth and a chance at the draft lottery.”

  25. Pouzar says:

    G Money: Pouzar, Wait a second. In addition to being a Jets fan, I just assumed you were also a Blue Bombers fan.*ducks and runs*

    *shakes fist*

    Nah..I have compassion for the Bombers…always respected those teams back in the day.
    I am an Argos fan….don’t ask. 🙂

  26. Pouzar says:

    kinger_OIL,

    I just don’t understand why they don’t widen the field even by a few feet and/or lengthen the end zones.

  27. Melman says:

    kinger_OIL,

    That’s an interesting and valid point. Apart from moving team(s) into LA – a card they’ve held in their pocket for 20 years. It’s hard to imagine where they can turn to drive more revenue. I don’t see a Euro division anytime soon and I’d be stunned if it was successful even of they did try. It MIGHT get to be similar to MLS’ popularity compared to the NFL.

    They are also facing a multi-billion $ settlement over the concussion thing.

  28. Ducey says:

    Pouzar: *smashes phone*

    It worked for Brady.

  29. rickithebear says:

    wheatnoil: September 3, 2015
    Chabot rejoins Dubnyk. Maybe the problem wasn’t the goalie coach? Guess we’ll see this year, but we’re down to equipment, new baby, MacT, or goalies are voodoo.

    Dubnyk
    14-15 ARZ/MIN .8648
    13-14 EDM .8095 Eakins
    12-13 EDM .8663
    11-12 EDm .8672

    Since the 12-13 lockout
    Defined levels s of HQS Save5 golaies show up.
    .860
    .850 more than 50% of season
    .850
    .843

    Goalies with 2 seasons of .860 HS save% or better
    Smith 12/13 .8889; 13/14 .8735 (11/12.8605) 3/4 season
    Rask12/13 .8803; 13/14 .8794 (11/12 .8877) 3/4 seasons
    Talbot 13/14 .8696 14/15 .8617 2/2 season
    Dubnyk 12/13.8672 14/15 .8648 (11/12 .8663) 3/4 season

    Goalies with 2 seasons of .850 HS save% or better
    Hiller 12/13 .8784; 14-15 .8531 (11/12 .8497) 3/4 season
    Schnieder 12/13 .8646; 14/15 .8544 (11/12 .8807) 3/4 season
    Lehtonen 13/14 .8678; 12/13 .8495 2/3 seasons
    Holtby 14/15 .8686; 12/13 .8544 2/3 seasons

    if you add 11-12 seasons
    Goalies with 2 seasons of .850 HS save% or better
    Lunquist 12/13 .8729; 11/12 .8591 2/4 seasons
    Halak 14/15 .8671; 11/12 .8599 2/3 seasons limited minutes 1 season
    Miller 14/15 .8588; 11/12 .8498 2/4 seasons

    Golaies with 2 season of .844 HS SV%
    Bobrovsky 2/4 seasons
    Crawford 3/4 season
    Price 3/4seasons
    Luongo 2/4 seasons
    C. Anderson 2/4 seasons
    Quick 2/4 seasons

    IT IS NOT VODOO!

    NEVER HAS BEEN!

    Good HSCA/60 D + Good HQS Save% Goalie + a coach with HQS (box protection System!)

    1940’s coaching:
    GO TO THE NET!

    Edmonton’s Inventory

    D:
    Fayne (MacT) 1st 10.05
    Nikitin (MacT) 2nd 12.43
    Sekera (PC) 2nd 12.05 1st 13.51
    Gryba(PC) ???? 2nd/3rd 13.99

    prospect D:
    Klefbom (SMB) 2nd comp 43.04
    Nurse (SMB) 2nd comp 39.68
    Reinhart 3rd comp 44.03

    Talbot .8600+ last 2 years top 3 HQS save% goalie.

  30. eidy says:

    Just saw this at sportsnet

    http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/25-canadiens-in-25-days-jeff-petry/

    Favorite part: Petry combines size, agility and skill to offer a unique package from the back end. No single aspect of his game stands out above the rest; he does almost everything well.

    His speed makes him a perfect fit with the Canadiens’ style and his physicality is a nice complement.

    good thing the oilers couldn’t use a right hand D that is 27 and has these skills.

    …I miss him already.

  31. Woogie63 says:

    kinger_OIL,

    We bought a major Canadian Sponsorsip from the NFL about 10 years ago, it has been more than we expected, that brand and the NFL Canada team are amazing!

    This brand is quality every step of the way (and some we have not thought of), they are not afraid to charge for the sponsorship. We review the value every two years, it is a short meeting.

  32. pocession charge says:

    jonrmcleod:
    Brady’s suspension vacated! Justice, baby! Justice!

    (This is for all of those Eskimos comments.)

    Goodell needs to stop making up rules as he goes along.

  33. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Ducey: It worked for Brady.

    Winner!

    In my limited viewings of Iiro he failed to impress me. Seemed a bit slow to skate/react and a lot of off the boards and out or outside shots. Question is if he is a Matt Fraser: great AHL numbers but not fast/good enough for the NHL, or if being nervous/fearing making a mistake was an issue last year. I hope it’s the latter. This team could use some healthy competition on the 3 and 4 lines for once.

  34. stevezie says:

    Watch “Oilers vs Devils (Gretzky 8 Pts / Kurri 5 Goals) – Nov.19,1983” on YouTube
    https://youtu.be/S90W17tyERg

    Sorry for the off topic comment, but i just stumbled across highlights of the Oilers-Devils “Micky Mouse” game and thought I’d share it.

    This is fourteen minutes so you might not have time, but it features
    -8 points from Gretz
    -a Willy Lindstrom hat trick
    -Coffee getting the puck behind his net with nine seconds left, the announcers commenting on the near-impossibility of a chance in the remaining time, Coffee hearing them and going end to end around a team of pylons in Devils uniforms and scoring
    -THE Jim Playfair getting set up by 99 for a chance so perfect he almost falls over in surprise as he takes the shot (Kurri cashes the rebound) only to later score his first career goal on what was just this side of a dump in
    – Jari Kurri getting five goals and a post (and celebrating he just woke up and would rather be back in bed). I love Kurri.
    -Sather continuing to deploy Gretz and Jarito kill penalties even after the tenth goal.
    I lost count of the times they scored while the previous goal was being announced.

    Hella good.

  35. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    stevezie,

    It’s been a long, dark winter for our Goofy the Dog organization.

  36. pocession charge says:

    stevezie:
    -Sather continuing to deploy Gretz and Jarito kill penalties even after the tenth goal.
    I lost count of the times they scored while the previous goal was being announced.

    Gretzky and Messier both spent considerable time on the PK. Some folks get so angry when RNH is used on the PK but obviously it makes some sense to have skill players PK’ing. Draisaitl was also very effective on the PK this year in Kelowna — he created a ton of scoring chances 4v5.

  37. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    pocession charge: Gretzky and Messier both spent considerable time on the PK.Some folks get so angry when RNH is used on the PK but obviously it makes some sense to have skill players PK’ing.Draisaitl was also very effective on the PK this year in Kelowna — he created a ton of scoring chances 4v5.

    The game has changed a bit. Those bombs from Weber and co on the point are so hard now (yes, I remember MacInnis and Iafrate) you don’t want to worry about your star forwards blocking shots and being injured. That said, I think there are certain situations when Nuge-Hall PK tandem up front could be great in putting pressure on the puck-movers at the point. One ill-advised pass that’s picked off and it’s a breakaway the other way before you know it.

  38. rickithebear says:

    zatch:
    rickithebear,

    All Goalies are not equal. This line of argument is worthless and has been shredded without any coherent response from you multiple times on this board.

    Shockingly Ricki, and I know this will be the biggest shock you have ever received in your entire life, goals from defencemen count on the scoreboard! Crazy, right? I even double checked the rule book, just for you.

    NO shit sherlock.

    but a golaie faces a defined number of HQS/60 a season.
    which is by the d.

    The goalie can be a single season results from multiple goalies
    (lowest range observed) .8100 HQS save% goalie
    to
    a(highest range observed).9200

    but we see that a .8600 goalie year to year is rare.
    and the league average is around .8350 for HQS.

    What the d yeilds matters.
    the HQS range is 5-8 per game
    8 X .8100 = 6.48 saves = 1.52 EVG/60
    5 X .8100 = 4.05 saves = .95 EVG/60
    8 X .9200 = 7.36 saves = 1.63 EVG/60
    5 X .9200 = 4.60 saves = .40 EVG/60

    what also becomes apparent is you need a coach/Team that emphasizes box protection.

    i had made a list of all confrence finals coaches since 04 playoff with multiple season appearances
    it was timed out and lost.

    like above;

    Coach box system + HSCA?60 D + HQS sav5 goalie.

    19 of the 24 elite HSCA/60 d. multiple seasons in the top level.
    Observed elite Box protection D have hit rates usually below 1.00/gm and as low as .40 hit/gm.
    which parrallels with the belief hitting often takes a D away from the front of the net.
    4 of the 24 D came from BOS/LAK which might be a function of hit scoring.
    These D also had a block rate that averaged 1.4 times more than there hit rates.

  39. wheatnoil says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: The game has changed a bit. Those bombs from Weber and co on the point are so hard now (yes, I remember MacInnis and Iafrate) you don’t want to worry about your star forwards blocking shots and being injured. That said, I think there are certain situations when Nuge-Hall PK tandem up front could be great in putting pressure on the puck-movers at the point. One ill-advised pass that’s picked off and it’s a breakaway the other way before you know it.

    I think they become the most useful as the 3rd PK unit that you put out in the last change of the PK to push back once the guy’s out of the box and maybe the other team’s top players are tired.

    Also, it helps if you have a good Top 9 and can put a skilled player on your PK. You can put Nuge and Hall out there on the PK and still have McDavid-Pou-Eberle rested post-kill.

  40. stevezie says:

    pocession charge,

    I agree. Lemieux set the league record for shorthanded goals.

    There’s a fine argument to be made for specialists, and there’s a fine case for your best players on at all times. Obviously depth helps.

    I just thought it was funny that there was no mercy mode for the old Oil.

  41. stevezie says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    And look what happened to the Devils. The table is set!

    EDIT: Of course, it happened to them ten years later…

  42. rickithebear says:

    Multiple Conferrance finals coaches since 03-04

    Sutter Cgy 04; LAK 12;13;14
    tortirella TMP 04; NYR 12
    Carlye ANA 06; 07
    Laviolette CAR 06; PHI 10
    Ruff BUF 06; 07
    Babcock DET 07; 08; 09
    Tipett DAL 08; PHX 12
    Vigneault VCR 11; NYR 14; 15
    Therion Pit 08; MTL 14
    Bylsma Pit 09; 13
    Quenville CHI 09; 10; 13; 14; 15
    McClellan SJS 10;11
    Julien BOS 10; 13
    Boudreau TMP 11; ANA 15

    Box protection coach?
    McClellan

    HSCA/60 D
    Fayne 1st comp
    Sekera 1st/2nd comp
    Nikitin 2nd comp
    Gryba 2nd/3rd comp

    prospects with signs of strong box protect. consistency needs to be observed a NHL level.
    Klefbom
    Reinhart
    Nurse

    Strong HQS save% goalie
    Talbot 6’3′

    HQS save% Prospect
    Nilsson 6’5″

    It is key to build a team from box protectin out.
    But
    if you lack organization depth.

    Do you chase the D and Golaie pulling youraelf out of lottery sooner with drafting high lottery D.
    or do you get the offensive prospect depth in org.
    start to identify Defensive prospect depth needs
    as the org depth builds.
    chase the more developed Defencemen and goalies to be in place as our d prospects Mature.

    2008 Eberle #22
    2009 MP #10 Lander #40
    2010 Hall #1 pitlick #31 Marincin #46 Hamilton #48 #61 Martindale
    2011 RNH #1 Klefbom #19 Musil #31 Perhonen #62
    2012 Yakupov #1 Moroz #32 Khaira #63
    J. schultz COl UFA
    2013 Nurse #7 Yakimov #83 Slepyshev #88
    Scrivens Fasth
    2014 Draisatl #3
    Fayne Nikitin
    2015 Mcdavid#1
    Sekera Gryba; Reinhart; Talbot; Nilsson

  43. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    stevezie: Of course, it happened to them ten years later…

    Don’t forget all those pucks they massacred in finding that success!

  44. Hammers says:

    Like to try and project other AHL players we expect to make the NHL . The obvious then Brossoit , Simpson , Musil ,Caleb Jones , Pakirinen , Yakimov, Slepyshev , Chase. When you add the obvious 3 D , Nurse , Reinhart , Davidson and Leon as a winger/ centre I try to project the team when there in the new building.hard isn’t it .

  45. SwedishPoster says:

    For a guy considered to lack hockey sense Yak sure manages to put pucks on net, it’s not as if he shoots from everywhere either, if anything he passes up on opportunities too often. The ability to find shots is a crucial and underrated skill and I hope he can nurture it further.

  46. 106 and 106 says:

    Maybe someday we’ll look at Corsi as ancient, archaic and outdated and get some more detailed numbers, like baseball.

    Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, is an advanced statistic that incorporates batting, baserunning, fielding and pitching to estimate how many additional wins a particular player is worth to his team over a replacement-level player.

    Donaldson (Blue Jays) sits atop the American League with a 7.6 WAR, while the next closest player on the Blue Jays is Edwin Encarnacion at 3.2. No other teammate is above 2.8.

    If the season were to end today, Donaldson’s WAR would rank as the third-best in franchise history behind only John Olerud (7.7) and Jose Bautista (8.1).

    WAR for hockey is coming…

  47. Lowetide says:

    Someone asked above about even shots/60. I don’t have those, but here are 5×5/60 from HockeyAnalysis.com

    1. Pakarinen 11.53
    2. Yakupov 8.43
    3. Hall 7.55
    4. Matt Fraser 7.42

    All numbers here

    http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?disp=1&db=201415&sit=5v5&pos=forwards&minutes=50&teamid=12&type=individual&sort=ishots60&sortdir=DESC

  48. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    106 and 106,

    We’ve talked about WAR for hockey many times here.

    Donaldson for Lawrie was a great trade at the time (baffling for Oakland) and has proved to be incredible so far.

  49. TheOtherJohn says:

    Hammers,

    I suspect that it is quite unlikely that more than 2 of Simpson , Davidson, Musil ,Caleb Jones, Pakirinen , Yakimov, Slepyshev or Chase play 100 games for the Oilers

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Mike Trout ‘s WAR is 7.5 or .1 beneath Donaldson’s 7.6 and the only stat where Donaldson has any separation from Trout is RBI’s which is a team stat. I.e. you are somewhat of a hostage to your teams offensive lineup.

  50. jp says:

    rickithebear:
    Dubnyk
    14-15 ARZ/MIN .8648
    13-14 EDM .8095 Eakins
    12-13 EDM .8663
    11-12 EDm .8672

    ————————————————-
    IT IS NOT VODOO!

    NEVER HAS BEEN!

    That .8095 sure looks like voodoo.

  51. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Hammers,

    I suspect that it is quite unlikely that more than 2 of Simpson , Davidson, Musil ,Caleb Jones, Pakirinen , Yakimov, SlepyshevorChase play 100 games for the Oilers

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Mike Trout ‘s WAR is 7.5 or .1 beneath Donaldson’s 7.6and the only stat where Donaldson has any separation from Trout is RBI’s which is a team stat. I.e. you are somewhat of a hostage to your teams offensive lineup.

    WAR wouldn’t be including RBI. As for Trout, yes, Donaldson’s recent surge has seen him catch him in WAR. Trout led all season. If the season ended today, Donaldson would win MVP because voters always seem to like a change when it’s close and Trout has won the last two.

  52. TheOtherJohn says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Trout has a very similar season to Donaldson and plays a harder defensive position with greater proficiency but suspect Donaldson will get votes because of significantly more rbi’s (older baseball writers) and on a playoff bound team.

    Re my rbi argument see Bryce Harper’s season. Significantly better season batting than Donaldson in every category save rbi’s.

    Anaheim runs 535
    Nats runs 564
    Toronto runs 730

  53. Ducey says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    106 and 106,

    We’ve talked about WAR for hockey many times here.

    Donaldson for Lawrie was a great trade at the time (baffling for Oakland) and has proved to be incredible so far.

    Oakland knew they couldn’t afford him. He might price himself out of TOR soon too.

    Oakland got some decent prospects but – small markets. It sucks.

  54. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Are we arguing something here?

    Trout is the best all-around player in the AL. No arguments from me. Donaldson has a higher BA, HR, RBI total this year, which as you say, will sway old school voters. Voters also like to change it up for the sake of it. Example, when Karl Malone won his career achievement MVP over the superior Jordan.

    Harper is on another tier offensively, but he is irrelevant being in the NL and he gets docked by WAR for playing right field. By the way, third base is the third toughest defensive position according to the WAR measures, behind catcher and CF.

    I am no Blue Jays fan, but if the season ended today I’d bet a lot of money Donaldson wins MVP regardless of how many more runs the Jays have scored than the Expos (my team) or Angels.

  55. Ducey says:

    SwedishPoster:
    For a guy considered to lack hockey sense Yak sure manages to put pucks on net, it’s not as if he shoots from everywhere either, if anything he passes up on opportunities too often. The ability to find shots is a crucial and underrated skill and I hope he can nurture it further.

    Dumb question: Are the “shots” listed by LT, actual shots on goal, or are they just taken towards the net?

    Yak always seems to miss the net too much for my liking.

  56. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    Ducey: Oakland knew they couldn’t afford him.He might price himself out of TOR soon too.

    Oakland got some decent prospects but small markets. It sucks.

    Oh, I’ve followed baseball for a long time and I feel the As’ pain. I’m just surprised they couldn’t get better value back. Not one of Beane’s best trades.

  57. G Money says:

    106 and 106,

    Several hockey stats luminaries have tried to create a hockey equivalent. Vollman tracks GAR = “Goals Above Replacement” for all players in his spreadsheets, which are freely available.

    The problem with GAR is that unlike baseball, which is situationally rather static, hockey is painfully dynamic. So comparable metrics don’t actually work that well, at least so far. So we’re stuck with archaic measures like Corsi because they’re so general. The good news is that, because of the dynamism, a stat like Corsi also carries high volume with it.

    Sample size compensates for a lot of ills.

  58. TheOtherJohn says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Harper has best WAR in baseball — docked for RF or not.

    The only noticeable gap between Donaldson & Trout is rbi snd you need runners on base in front of you to score runs. I agree with you Its likely Donaldson will win AL mvp just not sure he should

  59. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Harper has best WAR in baseball — docked for RF or not.

    The only noticeable gap between Donaldson & Trout is rbi snd you need runners on base in front of you to score runs. I agree with you Its likely Donaldson will win AL mvp just not sure he should

    Again, I have no idea what our argument is here, John.

    My comments summarized:
    -Lawrie for Donaldson was a great trade for Toronto
    -RBI is not counted in WAR. I didn’t bring up RBI in the first place. You did (and team runs). Never did I argue for Donaldson based on RBI.
    -Trout is the best player in the AL
    -Harper has the highest WAR in MLB due in large part to the fact he is vastly superior offensively to Donaldson and Trout, even though he plays the least important defensive position of the three, but why did Harper get brought into this particular conversation when he plays in the other league?
    -Donaldson is likely to win the AL MVP because his WAR is comparable to Trout’s and voters like to pick a fresh player on a playoff team, given the choice.

    I am lost. I don’t know why this discussion is continuing because it seems like you agree with me yet we are going in circles.

  60. TheOtherJohn says:

    Because Harper has 78 rbi’s on a weak offensive team. Rbi’s are. In part, a product of strong players on base in front of you.

    Otherwise –> agree with you

  61. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    TheOtherJohn:
    Because Harper has 78 rbi’s on a weak offensive team. Rbi’s are. In part, a product of strong players on base in front of you.

    Otherwise –> agree with you

    But I don’t care about RBIs! I didn’t bring up RBIs! I agree completely that RBIs are a product of the team. WAR does not count RBIs for a reason! I’m so lost. Ha ha.

  62. Магия 10 says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”: But I don’t care about RBIs! I didn’t bring up RBIs! I agree completely that RBIs are a product of the team.WAR does not count RBIs for a reason! I’m so lost. Ha ha.

    He violently agrees with you, except for what you have no opinion on. That he strenuously objects to. Get in the game.

  63. TheOtherJohn says:

    Sorry forgot we are on LT’s site: I did not use #’s

    BA HR RBI OBP SLG OPS WAR
    Donaldson .304 36 111 .372 .589 .961 7.6
    Trout .297 33 73 .397 .575 .972 7.5

    In BA Donaldson is 20th in majors Trout is 28th
    In OBP Trout is 5th in majors, Donaldson 15th.
    In Slg % Donaldson is 2nd Trout is 4th in majors
    In OPS Trout is 4th in majors Donaldson is 6th
    In WAR Donaldson is 2nd and Trout is 3rd

    Other than RBi’s they have had remarkably similar years

  64. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    TheOtherJohn,

    Ha ha. Man, still don’t know what we are going on about. We were talking about WAR. WAR does not include RBI in its calculations. I DO NOT care about RBIs and am not factoring them in anywhere.. I take Trout myself because of his gold glove CF defense, but Donaldson has had nearly as good of a year and I would bet if the season ended today, he would win MVP due to the tendencies of voters.

    And if that happened, I think Trout fans would admit it was at least very close and not robbery (especially when you consider the Jays are a playoff lock and the Angels have some work to do to get the 2nd wild card–unlikely).

  65. TheOtherJohn says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

    Agreed

    If Donaldson wins….it is NOT robbery!!!

  66. Jaxon says:

    Love what I’m reading about this Bukarts kid. His NHLE of 12G, 17A, 29PTS outpaces Chase, Pitlick & Pakarinen. Not huge (5’10”, 192lbs), but he has a bit of nastiness to his game. I hope he can carve out a spot for himself in the AHL and maybe even a cup of coffee towards the end of the season.

    There is some solid offence on the top 6 FWD and top 4D. A starting lineup like the one I’ve put together below should make for an interesting camp. I’ve shifted some positions to load up the top lines:

    Name (nhlE, Age rounded to nearest year at start of camp, height in inches, weight in lbs)

    Laurikainen
    Bear (13E,18Y,72″,205lbs) – Nurse (20E,21Y,76″,205lbs)
    Bukarts (29E,20Y,70″,192lbs) – McDavid (63E,19Y,73″,194lbs) – Slepyshev (41E,21Y,74″,194lbs)
    ———————————————————————————————————————————
    Loiseau (32E,22Y,73″,179lbs) – Draisaitl (39E,20Y,73″,209lbs) – Sanford (32E,20Y,69″,165lbs)
    LaLeggia (37E,23Y,69″,183lbs) – Leveille (19E,19Y,72″,223lbs)
    Brossoit

    Not sure which starting lineup would win that head-to-head battle. I’ve tried to surround McDavid with a bit of size and edge. LaLeggia, Draisaitl and Sanford might offset McDavid’s offensive dominance but McDavid’s teammates are no slouches and a rising tide raises all boats. Mathematically the total NHLEs of both teams are close (166-159). Just a fun exercise I thought I’d share.

    Others:
    Rankin (27E,21Y,72″,198lbs) – Platzer (29E,21Y,71″,183lbs) – Chase (24E,21Y,72″,190lbs)
    Christoffer (20E,21Y,70″,190lbs) – Soy (22E,19Y,72″,172lbs) – Roy (19E,21Y,72″183lbs)
    Betker (11E,21Y,77″,205lbs)

  67. Goilers says:

    I’m pretty sure you can add Winquist to this list.

  68. Talking Oilers, Powerplay, Shooting Options and Defence on Lowdown with Lowetide | The SuperFan says:

    […] shooting options up front. Here’s a link to the audio. Worth checking out Lowetide’s article that frames the discussion […]

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