PENTICTON 2015!!!

We left the coast for good early 1971, Dad packing up the GMC 3/4 ton and telling us it was going to get pretty cold (understatement? Why yes). Whonnock, Sidney, 93 Mile, 97 Mile, Burns Lake, I remember all of them but there are special memories of my childhood in British Columbia and as I grow older they become even more enjoyable to look back on.

There used to be a fish place on Dewdney Trunk Road called Big Ollies and that’s the best fish and chips I’ve ever had in my life. My Dad used to order for all of us and then he’d eat his, then mine, then my brother’s and then Mom’s as we couldn’t finish (I swear they were really good fish and chips). The Dairy Queen in Haney had the best ice cream cones in history, they were monsters. Dad ordered four, finished them all off.

We used to drive up to the Okanagan every summer and the first thing we’d do is stop at a fruit stand. My brother and I loved the peaches and we’d eat them until we were sick (“Don’t eat too many, you’re going to be sick” was followed every year by “I told you if you ate too many you’d get sick!” Lordy we weren’t exactly the smartest family) and we loved it every summer.

I’ve told you the box story (that’s the best one)so let me tell you about the cars and trucks we had when we were kids. Now, first thing you need to know is my Dad was very good with cars (could tune an engine like crazy, lots of people brought their cars and trucks to our house on Sundays—my Dad worked Saturdays—and he’d fix them). So, he was always tinkering with cars, he spent most of his off time under a hood in the 1960’s and that’s a fact (this was Whonnock, up past Thornhill School, I’m page 41 back row, second from left. Jacqueline Guenther—my first girlfriend and I had no say—is in the front row. I liked Donna McIntosh, but it didn’t matter, apparently they worked it out before I knew what was going on). Mrs. Norman, the lady in the photo, was possibly the nicest person I’ve ever met. I loved her. When I was in grade two, someone called her Iron Pants. I cried. Like a lot.

For cars, we had:

  • A big yellow Ford truck that my brother loved so much he used to tell people it was already sold. My Dad parked it at the end of the driveway with a For Sale sign on it, people would stop and my brother would say we just sold it. He cried when the man who bought it drove away.
  • We had a ’53 Flathead Ford, the damned block cracked because my Mom forgot to put water in it and drove it from our house to Thornhill School. She had to, I’d ripped my pants at recess.
  • An ugly English car (it was ghastly) called a Vanguard that had a crank in the front and a radiator that leaked no matter what my Dad tried to do in order to fix it. No car in history has been yelled at more than that blasted Vanguard. It may have been the devil.
  • The GMC was red and it was big, I had a hard time getting into the truck as a kid (long way up!). We kept that truck for a long time, Dad used it in Maidstone for his job checking wells for Husky (Husky btw, and CN, were the best companies my Dad worked for when I was a kid).

TOP 10 PLAYERS TO WATCH IN PENTICTON

  1. C Connor McDavid—The thing I noticed was his skating (this was Orientation camp, I was close to the boards). We all of us have a thing in our brain that documents what we’re seeing in real time, and 99% of it is within the realm of expectation. We’re engaged in the moment, but most of the time the unexpected does not occur. The delight in seeing McDavid hit the overdrive switch is intoxicating, it is noticeably different than the things my brain was prepared for during that camp. Seeing him live, even in that setting, is something I won’t forget. You need to see him live. Seriously. Even the U of A game, if that’s the only one you can get to, this is a player whose speed—and change of speed—is a new gear for the viewer too.
  2. D Darnell Nurse—I have to say that it’s extremely rare for this Edmonton Oilers fan to be excited about a bona fide defenseman who was drafted by the team. Nurse displays all of the elements this fanbase considers central to an Oilers blue and the physical element alone will draw gasps of glee when he arrives in the NHL. Nurse’s ability to close a gap is the best since Eric Brewer among young blue and I think he’s probably better than Brewer. His skating is ridiculous and physically you’d have to give me time to think of an Oilers draft pick (Greene?) who packed the same wallop. I think he’ll be in Edmonton’s top 4D by closing time 2015-16.
  3. C Leon Draisaitl—We’ve seen him of course but I want to see how the young man responds to the challenge of playing the wing and (at times) being the complementary player on a line. I see Leon as a really big part of Edmonton’s future, he’s big and strong and smart and can pass the puck beautifully. There’s a chance he and McDavid form a chemistry in camp and that could impact pre-season and beyond.
  4. L Anton Slepyshev—He’s a guy we haven’t seen (save international tournaments) live but the skill is clearly there. Sounds like he has a real nose for the net and the kind of release that can beat goalies. His attitude is very good, this is a player who could force the Oilers into making a decision on a veteran earlier than later. Thank you baby Jesus for all the riches.
  5. L Mitchell Moroz—He had injury and TOI issues a year ago but Moroz is a player Peter Chiarelli and Todd McLellan will want to see, and my guess is it’ll be in a more prominent role than he received one year ago. If you’re talking about being heavy on the puck, as Chiarelli did at his first media avail, then ignoring Moroz and his skill set is impossible. The fact he’s at the rookie tournament is an indication the organization want to get a long look this fall.
  6. R Greg Chase—The great thing about Chase is that he’ll be ready opening faceoff. Every fall he arrives in Penticton and every fall people talk about his improvement, be it speed or skill. This year, I suspect we’ll be reading and watching his more complete game and I’m excited to see where he lines up. This young man has a chance to make the Oilers during his entry-level deal but there’s a lot of work to do. Starts this weekend and I hope he makes it.
  7. D Joey Laleggia—The prospect equivalent of Tom Waits’ “What’s He Building In There?” Laleggia’s college career has some spikes that simply can’t be ignored. He scores a lot, like a lot, for a defenseman and he’s fast and smart and the kind of player a good offensive coach can probably find a way to use. No idea where he starts his pro career and he may never play an NHL game. What’s he building in there?
  8. D Ethan Bear—Jason Gregor got a great quote from Rick Carriere on this prospect, below is a portion and the rest is here: “I don’t think he has really bought into the whole fitness concept yet, in what it takes to be a player. But he skates well, he handles the puck well, he makes good plays coming out of his own end, he has good shot, he can play on the powerplay and when you get the fitness component in the next year or two, I think we will see a pretty special player.” Music!!!!
  9. G Eetu Laurikainen—The Finns hold a special place in Oilers lore, they’re like a combination really good player/good luck charm and are always great characters. I couldn’t imagine the Oilers without Kurri or Tikkanen or Niinimaa of God help us even Lenny Petrell. A guy like Laurikainen isn’t known to us and our knowledge of history tells us Eetu won’t burn into our memories (Andrew Verner had far greater pedigree) but the Finns don’t care about draft pedigree, the past or depth charts. The air in Edmonton agrees with them, and Eetu is worth watching because resume and birth certificate.
  10. F Rihards Bukarts—It was tough to choose him over Leveille but for me the little ball of energy should hit Penticton like the Tasmanian devil. Keep in mind when you watch him: He’s a very skilled player. This was a nice get for the Oilers, I wonder if they’d consider signing him and Leveille.

JOHANSSON

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

This morning at 10, TSN 1260. A very busy show, scheduled to appear:

  • Steve Lansky, Big Mouth Sports. Putting  McDavid’s arrival in historic perspective, and the Blue Jays slay the Yankees. Probably.
  • Blake Yuill, Lowetide. Blake is heading to Penticton and has graciously agreed to come on the show this weekend and Monday to talk about the tournament. We’ll have a tee-up this morning before things get rolling.
  • Antony Bent, FC Edmonton. A big game Sunday and miles of international soccer to discuss, including England beating a country with a population of 134 in the Euro qualifying.
  • Travis Yost, TSN. Yost has another home run article up on defensemen, we’ll discuss.
  • Paul Almeida, SSE. Penticton, Brady and the Eskimos.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide twitter. FRIDAY!

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123 Responses to "PENTICTON 2015!!!"

  1. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    It’s Christmas morning and I awake in Summerland.

    Wonderful stories as always, LT.

    Edit- or should I say, LB?!

  2. dustrock says:

    Wearing my OilersNation Taylor Hall 8-bit t-shirt in celebration.

    I’m super excited about a Young Stars game? What is happening?

  3. Pajamah says:

    LT, its amazing how you can make someone born in the early 80’s nostalgic for places I haven’t been, and years I haven’t seen.

    When you write a book, you could price it at “pay what you think is reasonable” and the commenters here could easily buy you a house. Its ridiculous.

    Well done again.

  4. SwedishPoster says:

    On the Canucks I’m intrigued to see Rodrigo Abols, an invite who was passed over both in the 2014 and
    2015 draft. Latvian kid who did so well in the MHL this past season that he got some KHL action and did well with it. Looked pretty good for Latvia at the WHCs as well. He’s coming over to play in the WHL this season. He’s a skinny 6’3, though according to eliteprospects he’s 6’5 now if true I’m even more intrigued, with great skating and a nice skillset. We’ll see how he does on the smaller ice but I like the player.

  5. leadfarmer says:

    Exciting times. Really interested to see some of these guys. We all know hockey Jesus will be Hockey Jesus. But guys like Lalegs are really interesting to me. Could be a career top 4 defensemen or could be a bottom pairing AHL defensemen. Who knows.

  6. Ducey says:

    I will be watching Moroz and Jones.

    Moroz would be a boost to the system if he worked his way back into the picture.

    I think Jones is very underrated. He has terrific bloodlines, good skating and decent size. He likely will take a few months to adjust to the WHL, but I expect that he will develop quite well in Portland.

  7. mattwatt says:

    My memories of Penticton are not from my youth; they are that of a 24 year-old male. My friends Addy and Alistair were getting married there, so me and a couple other friends made the trip. The wedding was held at Bogner’s and was great in both food and drink, and left me as a mess. Yet no how big of mess I was, I had a 8 am tee-time at the Pentiction golf course I had to make. So there I was, hands shaking and stomach churning, teeing off with a two older who were my partners for the day. Ended up being a great round, and good laughs with the old guys. Both gentleman. From there, I chugged a Red Bull, hopped into my buddies car and back to Vancouver we went. Was a fabulous weekend in all.

    Here is hoping Penticton is as much fun for the Oiler’s youth as it was for me.

  8. Pouzar says:

    Work Golf Tourney today…expect some drunken rants by puck drop.
    I may sprinkle in a few F-Bombs as well.

  9. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Joey Leggs – And what’s that tune he’s always whistling…

  10. jimmers2 says:

    Ah yes, the Vanguard. The Vanguard “Smid” I think it was. OK car if that if what turns your crank. Strong like ox and can haul 6 cubic yards of gravel at a go, but out of fashion nowadays it seems!

  11. Hammers says:

    Start of another season . Fantastic .

  12. meanashell11 says:

    My memories of Penticton are from my very late teens/early twenties. Had a buddy who moved down there so went a few summers in a row. Unfortunately I cannot tell my stories on this blog as there may be children reading but I have to say I have only found ladies like that one other place in my lifetime ( not saying, its a secret to the grave).

  13. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Ducey,

    Agreed on Jones. Really like that as a late pick. Lots and lots of upside there, plenty of home run potential given where he was taken.

  14. godot10 says:

    The thing about Lowetide and Penticton is that even if Griffin Reinhart was there, we would never know it from Lowetide. So it is probably better than he isn’t there. Since if it isn’t mentioned on Lowetide, it really didn’t happen anyways.

  15. eidy says:

    LT,
    Love the stories and especially the ones on Maidstone. Spent many years there on Christmas and Thanksgiving holidays as well as time in the summer Went to the rink, the Silver Lake golf course, and the Red Rooster at the corner store (Grandpa always kept all his change and when we got there we were allowed to split it up equally. I swear this is how I learned math, I had 3 sisters and there was no way I was letting them count it).

    When you tell these stories it makes me wish Grandpa and Grandma were still alive so I could find out what you were like in High school. I suspect you met the principal and vice principal from time to time. My father had left Maidstone I suspect by the time you got there as he graduated high school in 1966 I think. When did your family move to Maidstone… early 70’s wasn’t it?

  16. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    ‘Iron pants’ – where was that one 12 hours ago?

  17. oliveoilers says:

    Always have all the time in the world for the stories that people kindly share on here.

    From every walk of life, age group and even countries united by the two common themes of loving the Oilers and hating the Flames (spits).

    Seems that everybody was raised (in my case, dragged) up ‘right’. To be respectful of each other, even when we need a snickers!

    It all starts tonight, Ladies and Gents. Before we know it, it’ll be Christmas, with nearly half the season gone. We’ll have soooo many new things to peruse, analyse, mock, deride and applaud.

    I wish all the joy of the chase: To meaningful games in January!

  18. oliveoilers says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel:
    ‘Iron pants’ – where was that one 12 hours ago?

    Snow Pants’ nemesis?

  19. leadfarmer says:

    godot10,

    Reihart? Reinhart? We don’t talk about Reihart !!!

  20. frjohnk says:

    leadfarmer:
    godot10,

    Reihart?Reinhart?We don’t talk about Reihart !!!

    Who is that?

  21. Bag of Pucks says:

    Really bummed that I’m not making it out to Penticton this year.

    Was starting to become an annual pilgrimage out there to visit the in-laws in Kelowna and take in some entertaining rookie tilts. Really like the facility in Penticton. Great sight lines for hockey. Work schedules have conspired against it this year.

    For everyone that’s going, enjoy and keep those game reports coming. Really enjoying comparing everyone’s impressions to my own. That’s the damndest thing about this game. You can’t physically watch all 12 players at the same time!

  22. GCW_69 says:

    Will it be televised?

  23. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    GCW_69,

    Streamed on the Oilers’ site.

  24. leadfarmer says:

    frjohnk,

    The new Smid

  25. rich says:

    Great story LT, thanks for sharing. Another element that sets your site apart from others because there’s so much in that to relate to.

    At long last, some real hockey to watch. Getting thru August is always difficult because it gets too hot, and there’s very little that happens.

    Now we get to see who are the prospects and who are the suspects. CMD, Leon, Nurse, Sleppy, Joey Legs. Godspeed gentlemen.

  26. leadfarmer says:

    Does anyone have a schedule of events for all of us that live far away.

  27. pts2pndr says:

    NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker",

    You were asking on an earlier thread about the area. Look up Cathedral lake lodge.
    It is well worth a visit while u are in the area. Comes complete with alpine meadows,mountain lakes walking trails and views that will take your breath away. Have a great stay in the Okanagan!

  28. kinger_OIL says:

    LT – Growing up in Yellowknife: we had a Yellow Ford Pick Up, in the late 70’s, it was an older one, lots of mileage. My Dad bought it from someone who bought it from a friend in Sask. I loved that pick-up: hmmmm…..

    – I’ve said this before, your prose intermixed with Hockey and family is magic: and to think that all these years later, the Oil training camp is where you were formed in your youth: Lowetide = Karma!

    – And NYC – my Dad retired to Summerland: he loves it there, and it’s a really wonderful area to explore: colours are gorgeous in the fall

  29. book¡je says:

    Are we already done discussing Eakins?

  30. SwedishPoster says:

    When I was a kid we had a Volvo(obviously) Amazon. One of those cars so ugly it’s beautiful. Never broke down. Then they bought a Renault 18, terrible, followed by a Ford Scorpio that I took over when moving away from home at 18, not much of a car but great for handbrake turns.

  31. Магия 10 says:

    godot10:
    The thing about Lowetide and Penticton is that even if Griffin Reinhart was there, we would never know it from Lowetide.So it is probably better than he isn’t there.Since if it isn’t mentioned on Lowetide, it really didn’t happen anyways.

    Naw. If he was there LT would be pumping his tires like mad in the hopes of trading him next June for real value. Like a 16 and a 33 (or whatever the 2016 draft equivalent is)

  32. Woodguy says:

    godot10:
    The thing about Lowetide and Penticton is that even if Griffin Reinhart was there, we would never know it from Lowetide.So it is probably better than he isn’t there.Since if it isn’t mentioned on Lowetide, it really didn’t happen anyways.

    You’re really weird.

  33. Магия 10 says:

    Woodguy: You’re really weird.

    Almost Holmesian. The curious case of the griff that didn’t bark.

  34. DasBavaria says:

    LT,

    Long time lurker and first time poster. I really appreciate you sharing stories of your childhood. As someone who didn’t grow up in Canada, this site has taught me a lot about growing up in Canada and taught me how to love hockey.

  35. TheGreatMcMutato says:

    leadfarmer:
    Does anyone have a schedule of events for all of us that live far away.

    As per the Oilers site:

    FRI, 11 SEP 2015
    – VANCOUVER VS. OILERS – 8:30 PM

    SAT, 12 SEP 2015
    – CALGARY VS. OILERS – 8:30 PM

    MON, 14 SEP 2015
    – WINNIPEG VS. OILERS – 12:30 PM

    All games should be streamed on the Oil site and naturally it’s safe to assume those are Edm local times =)

  36. Woodguy says:

    I really like Travis Yost and his writing. He is usually very good.

    That being said I think there is a problem with Yost’s analysis in the piece LT linked to.

    From the piece:

    For the purposes of this analysis, we’ll focus on two danger areas – in and around the crease (the horizontal axis, where ‘0’ would indicate that the player gave up just as many shots as the league average), and the ‘slot’ (the vertical axis, where ‘0’ again indicates that the player gave up just as many shots as the league average).

    He is using the league average of shots against as the measuring stick.

    That is the problem with the analysis.

    By using league average he is going to automatically boost defenders who are on teams who don’t give up a lot of Scoring Chances Against (NJD, FLA, DET, MIN, NSH) and devalues Dmen on teams that give up a lot of SCA (TOR, NYI, TBY, DAL, EDM)

    Basically it takes all of the SCA and lays them at the feet of the defender, good and bad.

    If we look at Yost’s chart we see the “very good” quadrant populated mostly (but certainly not entirely) the teams indicated above. We also see a lot of “very poor” quadrant populated by players from the poor teams.

    I think one way to eliminate this bias is to use the ratio of Corsi Against/60 divided by Scoring Chance Against/60.

    This removes the penalty for being on a team that allows a lot of shots/corsi events and turns them into a ratio that says:

    “How many of the shot attempts that other teams get are actually scoring chances?”

    Here is a list of every Dman who has played more than 1000 5v5 minutes over the last 2 years (206 players) sorted by Scoring Chance Against/Corsi Against aka “What percentage of corsi events turn into a Scoring Chance Against?”

    1 Aaron.Ekblad 0.420
    2 Roman.Josi 0.421
    3 Shea.Weber 0.427
    4 Sami.Vatanen 0.429
    5 Jonas.Brodin 0.431
    6 Ryan.Ellis 0.432
    7 Clayton.Stoner 0.433
    8 Ryan.Suter 0.438
    9 Marc.Methot 0.438
    10 Dan.Boyle 0.438
    11 Ryan.Murray 0.440
    12 Dylan.Olsen 0.440
    13 David.Savard 0.440
    14 Marc.Staal 0.441
    15 Mattias.Ekholm 0.443
    16 Scott.Hannan 0.444
    17 Hampus.Lindholm 0.444
    18 Robert.Bortuzzo 0.445
    19 Jordan.Leopold 0.447
    20 Deryk.Engelland 0.448
    21 Justin.Braun 0.449
    22 Nick.Schultz 0.449
    23 Matt.Irwin 0.450
    24 Jared.Spurgeon 0.450
    25 Kevin.Klein 0.450
    26 Brad.Stuart 0.451
    27 Jason.Demers 0.451
    28 Anton.Volchenkov 0.452
    29 Kyle.Quincey 0.453
    30 Marc-Edouard.Vlasic 0.453
    31 Daniel.Girardi 0.454
    32 Francois.Beauchemin 0.454
    33 Mark.Borowiecki 0.456
    34 Victor.Bartley 0.456
    35 Danny.Dekeyser 0.457
    36 Matt.Niskanen 0.458
    37 Raphael.Diaz 0.458
    38 Ryan.McDonagh 0.458
    39 Brian.Campbell 0.459
    40 Nikita.Nikitin 0.459
    41 Kevan.Miller 0.459
    42 Marco.Scandella 0.460
    43 Nathan.Beaulieu 0.460
    44 Ian.Cole 0.460
    45 Bryan.Allen 0.461
    46 John.Moore 0.461
    47 Nicklas.Grossmann 0.461
    48 Braydon.Coburn 0.462
    49 Seth.Jones 0.462
    50 Jack.Johnson 0.462
    51 Erik.Gudbranson 0.463
    52 Tom.Gilbert 0.463
    53 Anton.Stralman 0.463
    54 Fedor.Tyutin 0.464
    55 Rob.Scuderi 0.464
    56 Ben.Lovejoy 0.464
    57 Cam.Fowler 0.464
    58 Niklas.Hjalmarsson 0.465
    59 Willie.Mitchell 0.465
    60 Zach.Redmond 0.466
    61 Eric.Gryba 0.466
    62 Matt.Dumba 0.467
    63 Paul.Martin 0.467
    64 Brooks.Orpik 0.468
    65 James.Wisniewski 0.469
    66 Chris.Butler 0.469
    67 Nick.Holden 0.469
    68 Dalton.Prout 0.470
    69 John-Michael.Liles 0.470
    70 Johnny.Oduya 0.470
    71 Mike.Green 0.470
    72 Dmitry.Kulikov 0.470
    73 Cody.Ceci 0.470
    74 Simon.Despres 0.471
    75 Josh.Gorges 0.472
    76 Alexei.Emelin 0.472
    77 Karl.Alzner 0.472
    78 Christopher.Tanev 0.473
    79 Erik.Karlsson 0.473
    80 Ladislav.Smid 0.473
    81 Brett.Bellemore 0.473
    82 Olli.Maatta 0.473
    83 Tobias.Enstrom 0.473
    84 Mark.Giordano 0.474
    85 Jakub.Kindl 0.474
    86 Andrei.Markov 0.475
    87 Duncan.Keith 0.475
    88 Ryan.Stanton 0.475
    89 Adam.Larsson 0.476
    90 Michal.Rozsival 0.476
    91 T.J..Brodie 0.476
    92 Jared.Cowen 0.477
    93 Andre.Benoit 0.477
    94 Alex.Goligoski 0.477
    95 Sergei.Gonchar 0.478
    96 John.Carlson 0.478
    97 Ron.Hainsey 0.479
    98 Carl.Gunnarsson 0.479
    99 Mark.Stuart 0.479
    100 Matt.Bartkowski 0.479
    101 Kris.Letang 0.479
    102 Nate.Prosser 0.480
    103 P.K..Subban 0.480
    104 Kevin.Shattenkirk 0.481
    105 Barret.Jackman 0.481
    106 Adam.McQuaid 0.482
    107 Chris.Phillips 0.482
    108 Mike.Weaver 0.482
    109 Tim.Gleason 0.482
    110 Kris.Russell 0.482
    111 Adam.Pardy 0.483
    112 Patrick.Wiercioch 0.483
    113 Mark.Streit 0.483
    114 Brent.Burns 0.484
    115 Dustin.Byfuglien 0.484
    116 Andrew.Greene 0.484
    117 Kimmo.Timonen 0.485
    118 Marek.Zidlicky 0.485
    119 John.Klingberg 0.485
    120 Zach.Bogosian 0.485
    121 Jonathan.Ericsson 0.485
    122 Peter.Harrold 0.485
    123 Jan.Hejda 0.485
    124 Matt.Greene 0.486
    125 Trevor.Daley 0.487
    126 Michael.Del.Zotto 0.487
    127 Brendan.Smith 0.488
    128 Connor.Murphy 0.488
    129 Brent.Seabrook 0.488
    130 Jay.Bouwmeester 0.488
    131 Rasmus.Ristolainen 0.489
    132 Andrej.Sustr 0.489
    133 Robyn.Regehr 0.490
    134 Nikita.Zadorov 0.490
    135 Jordie.Benn 0.490
    136 Jake.Muzzin 0.490
    137 Oliver.Ekman-Larsson 0.490
    138 Zdeno.Chara 0.491
    139 Niklas.Kronwall 0.491
    140 Zbynek.Michalek 0.492
    141 David.Schlemko 0.492
    142 Slava.Voynov 0.492
    143 Jamie.McBain 0.493
    144 Derek.Morris 0.493
    145 Michael.Stone 0.493
    146 Brian.Strait 0.494
    147 Tyson.Strachan 0.494
    148 Roman.Polak 0.494
    149 Nick.Leddy 0.494
    150 Andrew.Ference 0.495
    151 Dennis.Wideman 0.495
    152 Brenden.Dillon 0.496
    153 Drew.Doughty 0.496
    154 Alexander.Edler 0.496
    155 Tyler.Myers 0.496
    156 Tyson.Barrie 0.496
    157 Brian.Lashoff 0.497
    158 Keith.Yandle 0.497
    159 Yannick.Weber 0.497
    160 Jason.Garrison 0.497
    161 Jeff.Petry 0.498
    162 Jacob.Trouba 0.498
    163 Andrej.Meszaros 0.498
    164 Andrew.MacDonald 0.499
    165 Luke.Schenn 0.499
    166 Eric.Gelinas 0.500
    167 Travis.Hamonic 0.500
    168 Mark.Barberio 0.502
    169 Nathan.Guenin 0.502
    170 Mark.Fayne 0.502
    171 Christian.Ehrhoff 0.502
    172 Johnny.Boychuk 0.502
    173 Henrik.Tallinder 0.503
    174 Dougie.Hamilton 0.503
    175 Jon.Merrill 0.503
    176 Jay.Harrison 0.504
    177 Mike.Weber 0.504
    178 Thomas.Hickey 0.504
    179 Alex.Pietrangelo 0.505
    180 Ryan.Murphy 0.505
    181 Kevin.Connauton 0.506
    182 Dennis.Seidenberg 0.506
    183 Luca.Sbisa 0.507
    184 Torey.Krug 0.507
    185 Erik.Johnson 0.508
    186 Kevin.Bieksa 0.509
    187 Mark.Fraser 0.510
    188 Stephane.Robidas 0.512
    189 Matt.Carle 0.512
    190 Justin.Schultz 0.512
    191 Dan.Hamhuis 0.513
    192 Victor.Hedman 0.513
    193 Calvin.De.Haan 0.513
    194 Alec.Martinez 0.513
    195 Justin.Faulk 0.514
    196 Brayden.McNabb 0.517
    197 Eric.Brewer 0.519
    198 Lubomir.Visnovsky 0.520
    199 Jake.Gardiner 0.524
    200 Morgan.Rielly 0.526
    201 Cody.Franson 0.527
    202 Andrej.Sekera 0.528
    203 Dion.Phaneuf 0.532
    204 Radko.Gudas 0.535
    205 Oscar.Klefbom 0.539
    206 Martin.Marincin 0.548

  37. Woodguy says:

    #202 and #205 on that last make me a little nervous……

  38. Woodguy says:

    The obvious weakness in my little metric is that it will automatically show Dmen who play 3rd pair or play often against checking lines as pretty good.

    Why?

    Intuitively, hockey player’s who are not in the league due to ability to score (checkers/energy players/4th line) will turn corsi events into scoring chances at a lower rate than those employed to score.

    If you play against those players often, then your score via this metric will be enhanced.

  39. G Money says:

    Woodguy,

    I had the same issue with Yost’s piece, but I’m not sure your normalization process helps.

    One test for any statistic is the ‘gut feel’ test – i.e. does it make sense? Good statistics in my experience provide insight, mainly because they identify exceptions.

    Or to put it another way, you don’t need Corsi to tell you who most of the good teams and bad teams are. Where Corsi is interesting is when the results you see are either significantly better or worse than the statistics indicate. There’s something there to investigate.

    But when your stat produces results that are counterintuitive across the board e.g. VIktor Hedman behind Justin Schultz? Ference the best Oiler defender? Derek Engelland the best Flames defender?

    I’d say its clear that the statistic or the analysis is flawed.

    And to be clear, it’s not just your normalization that I’m concerned with, it’s Yost’s original work.

    When you have that many busts, it means your statistic isn’t telling you what you think it’s telling you.

    Something about which I got on my ever-present soapbox and lectured Ricki the other day.

    #NiceBearThough

    (h/t GreatMutato for my new favourite meme)

  40. G Money says:

    P.S. I should also point out that this inability for statistics to produce good supportable results is pretty much across the board when it comes to defensemen.

    CF%? Terrible, except broadly used as a WOWY tool.
    CA/60? Better than others, but still barely passable IMO.

    We still don’t have a good objective way to measure those b*stards!!!

    The only thing I’ve found that actually seems to work is TOI. And that only works in-team, not out-team.

  41. Jordan says:

    Woodguy,

    See, these are the kinds of numbers we need Yost to push for us.

    By these metrics, Andrew Ference > Drew Doughty.

    Gotta build that trade value baby!

  42. leadfarmer says:

    Woodguy,

    So your saying we kept the wrong Schultz.

  43. G Money says:

    leadfarmer: So your saying we kept the wrong Schultz.

    This presumes there is a right Schultz!

  44. RexLibris says:

    Not meant to threadjack, or another shameless plug, but rather posting it here again for anyone interested in the rest of the field this year at Penticton:

    http://flamesnation.ca/2015/9/10/2015-penticton-prospects-at-a-glance

    I’ve ranked the prospect groups thus:

    1. Jets
    2. Oilers
    3. Flames
    8. Canucks

    Thank you, I now return you to your regularly scheduled blog.

    🙂

  45. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Edmonton Oilers

    @EdmontonOilers

    #Oilers on the ice in Penticton! Notable combos include Moroz-McDavid-Chase, Winquist-Draisaitl-Slepyshev & Laleggia-Nurse.

  46. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    Woodguy:
    #202 and #205 on that last make me a little nervous……

    But hey, by that metric we (functionally) traded #206 for #61.

    That’s a handsome win right there.

  47. Ca$h-McMoney! says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel:
    Edmonton Oilers

    @EdmontonOilers

    #Oilers on the ice in Penticton! Notable combos include Moroz-McDavid-Chase, Winquist-Draisaitl-Slepyshev & Laleggia-Nurse.

    Perfect.

    Chase will irritate people, who will try to fight him. Moroz will jump to his defense. In the meantime, McDavid will score a bunch of goals and turn the ice into icewine.

  48. G Money says:

    P.P.S. on an unrelated topic, Stealth Nerd Alert: I rewrote my “Boy the Oilers opening night D last year was terrible” post from yesterday and put it up as a NerdAlert, if you’re interested.

    Also, I changed the format of ONA, after unrelenting pressure and criticism from @WheatNOil and @Woodguy55 ( 🙂 !). It’s now a headline style of interface, which makes it a lot easier to find old articles.

    The new format requires lots of pretty pictures, which I’m slowly filling in. Swedish: hope you are OK with what I found to represent your country! (They look good to my Canuckian eyes, anyway)

  49. stush18 says:

    Woodguy,

    Do you have a line in the sand for what is and isn’t acceptable?

    Looked to me that Nashville and Colombia had some good dmen on there, which is maybe why there goalies are vezina candidates.

    It’s funny that weber is the poster boy for analytics/saw him good. By this metric he actually looks very good.

    This is why I love this site. People digging deeper to better apply the numbers. Good stuff.

  50. G Money says:

    RexLibris,

    This was an excellent article.

    I am a little disappointed that you are casting a non-Flames-specific pearl in front of those swine, though!

  51. Bag of Pucks says:

    Prediction for tonight.

    Some Nucklehead will ever so gingerly jostle McDavid a millisecond after the whistle and Moroz or Chase will do this….

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5CLV4-Jg_Q

  52. G Money says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel: Moroz-McDavid-Chase

    Smart. Not taking any chances with expected thuggery from other teams.

    Want to goon McDavid?

    Here’s barrier #1 – 190 lbs of fangs and stick.

    Here’s barrier #2 – 215 lbs of fast-skating enforcer.

    Oh, by the way, while you were mulling whether it was worth the risk of gooning McDavid anyway, he scored a hat trick. Too bad.

  53. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    G Money: Smart.

    Well it would be stoopid to not try it, especially after I requested that line a day or so ago.

    G Money: “Boy the Oilers opening night D last year was terrible”

    Ü

  54. delooper says:

    Er, is there any chance of a feed on the old Al Gore?

  55. RexLibris says:

    Okay, now I’m not saying that it’s going to happen but…

    http://www.tsn.ca/auston-matthews-is-just-that-good-1.358947

  56. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    delooper:
    Er, is there any chance of a feed on the old Al Gore?

    Oilers’ site if you’re in Canada – otherwise VPN like you are.

    I see hockeystreams has two prospects games listed today, but not the Oilers game.

  57. RexLibris says:

    G Money:
    RexLibris,

    This was an excellent article.

    I am a little disappointed that you are casting a non-Flames-specific pearl in front of those swine, though!

    Thanks.

    And, uh, I must be feeling slow today…could you elaborate?

  58. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    RexLibris: Okay, now I’m not saying that it’s going to happen but…

    Quick – trade Nuge now, to make room in the lineup!

  59. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    P.S. I should also point out that this inability for statistics to produce good supportable results is pretty much across the board when it comes to defensemen.

    CF%?Terrible, except broadly used as a WOWY tool.
    CA/60? Better than others, but still barely passable IMO.

    We still don’t have a good objective way to measure those b*stards!!!

    The only thing I’ve found that actually seems to work is TOI.And that only works in-team, not out-team.

    I think we need a few different metrics to evaluate Dmen because not every Dmen do the same things.

  60. Woodguy says:

    G Money:
    Woodguy,

    I had the same issue with Yost’s piece, but I’m not sure your normalization process helps.

    One test for any statistic is the ‘gut feel’ test – i.e. does it make sense?Good statistics in my experience provide insight, mainly because they identify exceptions.

    Or to put it another way, you don’t need Corsi to tell you who most of the good teams and bad teams are.Where Corsi is interesting is when the results you see are either significantly better or worse than the statistics indicate.There’s something there to investigate.

    But when your stat produces results that are counterintuitive across the board e.g. VIktor Hedman behind Justin Schultz?Ference the best Oiler defender?Derek Engelland the best Flames defender?

    I’d say its clear that the statistic or the analysis is flawed.

    And to be clear, it’s not just your normalization that I’m concerned with, it’s Yost’s original work.

    When you have that many busts, it means your statistic isn’t telling you what you think it’s telling you.

    Something about which I got on my ever-present soapbox and lectured Ricki the other day.

    #NiceBearThough

    (h/t GreatMutato for my new favourite meme)

    It isn’t a “who is the best defender metric”

    It’s a “who keeps the shots to the outside best” metric.

    I agree it’s bound to have issues, but the “gut feel” works pretty good for the most part.

    The metric ignores who moves the puck in the right direction most often and that’s probably what makes you uncomfortable with it.

    Just because Ference is good at this metric doesn’t mean he’s a good Dman.

    When he is on the ice the puck is in the Oilers’ end way too much and for this reason alone he shouldn’t be on the ice much.

    When it is in the Oilers end and he’s on the ice, he does a reasonable job of limiting the scoring chances vis a vi the shot attempts.

  61. G Money says:

    RexLibris: And, uh, I must be feeling slow today…could you elaborate?

    You know – those red-clad cheap-beer-swilling southern Alberta swine!

  62. Woodguy says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy,

    Do you have a line in the sand for what is and isn’t acceptable?

    Looked to me that Nashville and Colombia had some good dmen on there, which is maybe why there goalies are vezina candidates.

    It’s funny that weber is the poster boy for analytics/saw him good. By this metric he actually looks very good.

    This is why I love this site. People digging deeper to better apply the numbers. Good stuff.

    I have no idea, I just pulled this out of my ass this morning.

    All,

    This is one metric that measures one thing.

    To say “this ranks PLAYERX too low and is useless!!!”, or “so Ference > Doughty?!?!?!” isn’t seeing the forest for the trees.

    Doughty is an amazing Dmen and one of the best in the NHL.

    Doesn’t mean that he’s elite at every single facet at every single job a Dman has to do.

  63. Woodguy says:

    Woodguy: I think we need a few different metrics to evaluate Dmen because not every Dmen do the same things.

    Nor do all “Elite Dmen” do the same things equally well.

    Some will be better at some things than others.

    I think we can all agree that the ability to change possession and move the puck out of the zone with possession is at the top of the list of things “very good” Dmen do well.

    My metric doesn’t measure that at all.

  64. Hammers says:

    oliveoilers:
    Always have all the time in the world for the stories that people kindly share on here.

    From every walk of life, age group and even countries united by the two common themes of loving the Oilers and hating the Flames (spits).

    Meaningful games now start in October .
    Seems that everybody was raised (in my case, dragged) up ‘right’.To be respectful of each other, even when we need a snickers!

    It all starts tonight, Ladies and Gents.Before we know it, it’ll be Christmas, with nearly half the season gone.We’ll have soooo many new things to peruse, analyse, mock, deride and applaud.

    I wish all the joy of the chase:To meaningful games in January!

  65. Ducey says:

    Woodguy,

    Seems like your impromptu analysis would penalize Dmen who play with lousy C’s.

    Down low its a three man game. If Sam Gagner is constantly staring at his girlfriend or is swarming out of position, the Oilers are going to give up a ton of killer chances in the slot – at no fault to the Dmen.

    Plus when NASH has 3 of the top 6, and 4 of the top 15, there must be some kind of team impact.

  66. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Looks like Tallon Bowman making cap room:

    Pierre LeBrun retweeted
    Chicago Blackhawks ‏@NHLBlackhawks 4m4 minutes ago

    #Blackhawks acquire D Dennis Robertson, Jake Massie, 2017 5th rounder in exchange for Versteeg and Nordstrom. http://onego.al/S6paM

  67. Woodguy says:

    Salary dump by CHI to CAR:

    RALEIGH, NC – Ron Francis, Executive Vice President and General Manager of the National Hockey League’s Carolina Hurricanes, today announced that the team has acquired forwards Kris Versteeg (vuhr-STEEG) and Joakim Nordstrom (JOH-keem NORD-struhm) and a third-round pick in the 2017 NHL Draft in exchange for defensemen Dennis Robertson and Jake Massie and a fifth-round pick in the 2017 NHL Draft.

    http://hurricanes.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=778729

  68. Woodguy says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel:
    Looks like Tallon making cap room:

    Pierre LeBrun retweeted
    Chicago Blackhawks ‏@NHLBlackhawks 4m4 minutes ago

    #Blackhawks acquire D Dennis Robertson, Jake Massie, 2017 5th rounder in exchange for Versteeg and Nordstrom. http://onego.al/S6paM

    Tallon hasn’t managed CHI since 2009.

  69. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Woodguy,

    A ‘duh’ moment. Edited.

  70. Woodguy says:

    Ducey:
    Woodguy,

    Seems like your impromptu analysis would penalize Dmen who play with lousy C’s.

    Down low its a three man game.If Sam Gagner is constantly staring at his girlfriend or is swarming out of position, the Oilers are going to give up a ton of killer chances in the slot – at no fault to the Dmen.

    Plus when NASH has 3 of the top 6, and 4 of the top 15, there must be some kind of team impact.

    I agree with this very much.

    As for the team aspect of NSH, that might be due to the system and what they expect of the C’s.

    MIN and FLA Dmen show up a lot too.

    We also cannot forget that Dpartner is going to affect this a lot.

  71. Woodguy says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel:
    Woodguy,

    A ‘duh’ moment. Edited.

    😀

  72. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Woodguy:

    But thanks for quoting it in the 2.573 seconds it was up before the edit!

  73. Lowetide says:

    eidy:
    LT,
    Love the stories and especially the ones on Maidstone.Spent many years there on Christmas and Thanksgiving holidays as well as time in the summerWent to the rink, the Silver Lake golf course, and the Red Rooster at the corner store (Grandpa always kept all his change and when we got there we were allowed to split it up equally.I swear this is how I learned math, I had 3 sisters and there was no way I was letting them count it).

    When you tell these stories it makes me wish Grandpa and Grandma were still alive so I could find out what you were like in High school.I suspect you met the principal and vice principal from time to time.My father had left Maidstone I suspect by the time you got there as he graduated high school in 1966 I think.When did your family move to Maidstone… early 70’s wasn’t it?

    Yes. It was 1971. The NHL season began and I was in BC and when Dryden stoned my beloved Bruins I was 17 miles north of Maidstone. That would be spring 1971.

  74. Lowetide says:

    kinger_OIL:
    LT – Growing up in Yellowknife: we had a Yellow Ford Pick Up, in the late 70’s, it was an older one, lots of mileage.My Dad bought it from someone who bought it from a friend in Sask.I loved that pick-up: hmmmm…..

    – I’ve said this before, your prose intermixed with Hockey and family is magic: and to think that all these years later, the Oil training camp is where you were formed in your youth: Lowetide = Karma!

    – And NYC – my Dad retired to Summerland: he loves it there, and it’s a really wonderful area to explore: colours are gorgeous in the fall

    That’s very kind, appreciate it. I don’t know why we all seemed to be more attached to vehicles back then, I have two cars dozens of times nicer than that old pickup and don’t really think about them at all.

  75. RexLibris says:

    G Money: You know – those red-clad cheap-beer-swilling southern Alberta swine!

    You mean your neighbours, as I recall.

    No, I meant the “pearl” part. Like I said, I’m feeling a little sluggish today – recovery from a particularly virulent form of the Martian stomach flu.

  76. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    pts2pndr,

    kinger_OIL,

    Thanks! Went up Giants Head today for a look at the views. Beautiful as always. I’ve been to the area a few times but never seem to stay long enough to explore.

  77. RBB says:

    Good afternoon everyone,

    Paul Wells has stolen LT’s alter ego:
    http://www.macleans.ca/politics/ottawa/paul-wells-my-bias-is-all-in-your-head/

    Please pardon the politics, and have a great weekend!

  78. RexLibris says:

    Bruce McCurdy posted this recently on twitter, the Oilers advantage when it comes to the waiver wire: http://blogs.edmontonjournal.com/2015/09/11/brandon-davidson-and-the-edmonton-oilers-great-big-waiver-wire-advantage/

    Apologies if it has been mentioned already.

  79. NYCOIL "Gentleman Backpacker" says:

    RexLibris,

    Looks like that’s a Jon Willis piece.

  80. frjohnk says:

    Woodguy,

    I think you are on to something here but there are some kinks to work out.

    If I had the time I would work these numbers for each player relative to their team and see how the numbers look then.

  81. dustrock says:

    Thought the Hurricanes would make a push for the playoffs before this trade.

    Really think they’ll surprise.

  82. G Money says:

    RexLibris: You mean your neighbours, as I recall.
    No, I meant the “pearl” part. Like I said, I’m feeling a little sluggish today – recovery from a particularly virulent form of the Martian stomach flu.

    And my children! (except for the beer-swilling part)

    Pearl referred to the overall goodness of the article (which naturally was then cast before …)

    Freakin’ Martians. They piss me off. Fuckin’ jerks. Get on mah nerves.

  83. RexLibris says:

    NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”:
    RexLibris,

    Looks like that’s a Jon Willis piece.

    Yes, I saw that after I brought it here. Bruce inked it on twitter right before Jonathan posted it this morning.

    Interesting take on things. I like Davidson and hope he can unseat Ference this fall, but if he gets picked up by another team I’ll wish him only the best.

    Interestingly, apparently Taylor Fedun will be playing for the Canucks (or their affiliate) this year.

  84. TheGreatMcMutato says:

    G Money:

    One test for any statistic is the ‘gut feel’ test – i.e. does it make sense?Good statistics in my experience provide insight, mainly because they identify exceptions.

    ….

    But when your stat produces results that are counterintuitive across the board e.g. VIktor Hedman behind Justin Schultz?Ference the best Oiler defender?Derek Engelland the best Flames defender?

    Had the same reaction when reading the piece the other day. The results didn’t make any sense so I just kind of dismissed it as missing ‘something’. If the math says 1=2 then there might be something wrong with the method.

    Of course, I’m lazy so that’s as far as I went with it. Kudos to you and Woody for actually putting some thought into the critique 😉

  85. geeoh says:

    Bouchard goes to the dressing room for ‘something’, the lights are out, there’s water on the floor and she slips and gets a concussion before she is set to play the Italian?

    Low ranked Italian beats Serena.

    Two Italians (playing in New York) seeded in the 20’s and 40’s set to play in finals? What are the odds? G Money can you tell me the odds that would happen? Is it statistically possible or are we seeing mafioso interference? If ever there is a time for tennis conspiracy theory it is now.

  86. G Money says:

    geeoh: Two Italians (playing in New York) seeded in the 20’s and 40’s set to play in finals? What are the odds? G Money can you tell me the odds that would happen? Is it statistically possible or are we seeing mafioso interference? If ever there is a time for tennis conspiracy theory it is now.

    Hmmm, I can’t really estimate any probabilities from the seeds themselves. Do you happen to know what the odds were on those two players prior to the start of the Open? It’s still more complicated than that because of the tournament format (the chances of those two being in the finals is of course highly dependent on them being on opposite sides of the draw), but using the odds would at least give information to generate a rough estimate of the probability.

  87. oilswell says:

    Awesome story, love the west.

    Yost article was an interesting read and it MAY show something nice but I don’t know what that is and am pretty sure he hasn’t identified it correctly, if it exists.

    Team and opposition and play contexts are vital. We have known this forever since third pairing d can look better than clearly superior first pairing d if you measure the wrong thing. Yost starts out strong, observing that the best defense is keeping the puck on offense: then there aren’t even shots or scoring chances against. Umm, that’s such a key point I’ll restate: the best defenders don’t give up shots, attempts, or scoring chances against. May be helpful to remember that when choosing data for a measure.

    And then he goes on to present measures that are completely free of anything but recorded events against. What? And not a reasonable evaluation of how one must interpret the results with caution because it is missing the crucial elements?

    Baffling, hopefully I’m missing something obvious or read it wrong.

  88. delooper says:

    Lowetide: I don’t know why we all seemed to be more attached to vehicles back then, I have two cars dozens of times nicer than that old pickup and don’t really think about them at all.

    Probably there’s two reasons. Vehicles are more uniform appliances nowadays. And when we’re young everything is more mysterious. As you get older you understand more about things, and see their plusses and minuses. When you’re young your vehicles are magic.

  89. jake70 says:

    G Money: Hmmm, I can’t really estimate any probabilities from the seeds themselves.Do you happen to know what the odds were on those two players prior to the start of the Open?It’s still more complicated than that because of the tournament format (the chances of those two being in the finals is of course highly dependent on them being on opposite sides of the draw), but using the odds would at least give information to generate a rough estimate of the probability.

    I watched the Williams match (watched only because I muted the sound when Serena started her yelling and CMOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNN!s) and I thought they said Vinci was a 300 to 1 to make final. Plug that into the abacus.

  90. rickithebear says:

    Woodguy:
    #202 and #205 on that last make me a little nervous……

    Coaching and org system philosophy maters:
    Sekera
    LAK Sutter 2nd comp 11.41
    CAR Peters 1st comp 17.39
    CAR Muller 1st comp 17.80
    BUF Rolston 2nd comp 18.66
    BUF Ruff 1st comp 13.23
    Buf Ruff 2nd comp 12.70

    Fayne:
    NJ: lemaire 10.33
    NJ; Deboer 11.33
    EDM: Eakins 17.16
    EDM: Nelson 18.92

    The repeatability of D in HSCA:
    Sutter
    Lemaire
    MacT
    Tortarelli
    Laviolette
    Ruff
    Carlyle
    Babcock
    Tippett
    Quenville
    McClelland
    Deboer
    Julien
    Boudreau
    Trotz
    Yeo

  91. geeoh says:

    Looks like the original odds of winning the final was 1 in 200 for Pennetta, 1 in 300 for Vinci as Jake said. Also should bring in the odds that Bouchard would suffer a concussion in a dark wet room.

  92. G Money says:

    jake70: I watched the Williams match (watched only because I muted the sound when Serena started her yelling and CMOOOOOOOOOONNNNNNNNNN!s) and I thought they said Vinci was a 300 to 1 to make final. Plug that into the abacus.

    So a simple way to look at it:

    300:1 is a 0.003322 probability to make the final.

    Assume her opponent is the same, and that they are independent events (presumably a safe assumption since they are on opposite sides of the draw).

    Rough probability is 0.003322^2, or 0.000011035684.

    That’s 0.001104% chance.

    In odds terms, it is something like 90,600:1 against, give or take.

  93. G Money says:

    geeoh:
    Looks like the original odds of winning the final was 1 in 200 for Pennetta, 1 in 300 for Vinci as Jake said.Also should bring in the odds that Bouchard would suffer a concussion in a dark wet room.

    That would make it about 0.00165% chance, or 60,500:1 then.

    I think if oddsmakers were giving odds on Bouchard and her concussion, you can probably conclude 100% that the fix was in!!

  94. geeoh says:

    Also have to add in the odds that the finalists would both be Italian in an area controlled by the Italian mafia. Someone got rich on this one!

  95. Магия 10 says:

    G Money: That would make it about 0.00165% chance, or60,500:1 then.

    I think if oddsmakers were giving odds on Bouchard and her concussion, you can probably conclude 100% that the fix was in!!

    Just wait til the Vegas Vig join the NHL and Vegas opens up betting on concussions.

    I’m opening up a book on whether the janitor that mopped the floor and killed the lights got paid off at a theater and will be arrested in in a warehouse.

    http://www.snopes.com/history/american/lincoln-kennedy.asp

  96. Wolfpack says:

    When my parents met my mom was driving a Camaro, probably mid-70’s. Six sand bags in the trunk at all times and every time you got in you had to pull away from the curb while closing the 150 pound door because the doors were too low and would get stuck on the curb every time. We lovingly called that car “Rust Bucket”.

    Then may parents got a Vista Cruiser, maroon in colour with the classic wood paneling on the side. Must have pushed that thing out of the snowbank 100 times.

    Then they bought a K-car. It was actually a 2-door with four on the floor and it might even have passed for a sports car in my parent’s mid-1980’s world. I did learn to drive a stick on that car, but that is about the only good memory I have of that piece of work. My parent’s really made some bad choices when it came to cars.

  97. Woodguy says:

    frjohnk:
    Woodguy,

    I think you are on to something here but there are some kinks to work out.

    If I had the time I would work these numbers for each player relative to their team and see how the numbers look then.

    That’s a great idea.

  98. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Wolfpack: Then they bought a K-car. … My parent’s really made some bad choices when it came to cars.

    So it wasn’t this one then?

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2kUVIwexxME&t=32s

  99. GCW_69 says:

    Finally had a chance to look at the Eakins post. There are some misleading conclusions. Made a couple responses but this is one I want tobdraw attention to:

    BTW, I looked again at the numbers, after the Petry trade, the comparison looks like this

    Situation. Eakins. Nelson without Petry
    Down 2. 53.6. vs 55.3
    Down 1. 53.6. vs 53.0
    Tied. 51.2. vs 50.3
    Up 1. 39.9. vs 43.2
    Up 2. 36.3 vs 46.1

    If you look at those slices, despite having a significantly weaker team, Nelson closed out the year with as good a numbers as Eakins trailing, close when tied, and better when leading.

    As I said before, I think the argument that Eakins drove better possesion is not accurate. Nelson’s numbers after the Petry trade certainly seem to indicate that.

  100. leadfarmer says:

    book¡je:
    Are we already done discussing Eakins?

    Who?

  101. leadfarmer says:

    stush18:
    Woodguy,

    Do you have a line in the sand for what is and isn’t acceptable?

    Looked to me that Nashville and Colombia had some good dmen on there, which is maybe why there goalies are vezina candidates.

    It’s funny that weber is the poster boy for analytics/saw him good. By this metric he actually looks very good.

    This is why I love this site. People digging deeper to better apply the numbers. Good stuff.

    I dont know when is the last time anyone was worried about Colombia’s defense 🙂

  102. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    Pregame interviews up at Oilers’ site – http://oilers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=778703&navid=DL|EDM|home

    Moroz to reporter: “Did you ask Connor what it’s like playing with me?”

  103. Магия 10 says:

    leadfarmer: I dont know when is the last time anyone was worried about Colombia’s defense

    Hey, they won the 2015 Pan American Ice Hockey Tournament with shutouts in every game but the final.

  104. G Money says:

    My first car was a lime green Chevy Vega. The citrusmobile. Migawd that thing was beyond awful.

  105. Woodguy says:

    All,

    The date range I used for my metric was the last two years (to mirror what Yost did)

    It included playoffs, which isn’t correct imo (level playing field)

    Here’s the same metric just using 5v5 TOI (min 500 min) for just 2014/2015

    Below that I will put the Team’s metric so you can do Relative to team:

    REMEMBER THESE ARE JUST RATES OF CONVERSION OF CORSI TO SCORING CHANCE.

    IF A TEAM GIVES UP A PILE OF CORSI EVENTS THEN EVEN IF THEY HAVE A GOOD CONVERSION RATE IT DOESN’T MAKE THEM A GOOD DEFENSIVE TEAM OVERALL

    1 Marc.Methot 0.413
    2 Dylan.Olsen 0.420
    3 Willie.Mitchell 0.420
    4 Aaron.Ekblad 0.420
    5 Clayton.Stoner 0.421
    6 Dan.Boyle 0.422
    7 Brian.Campbell 0.425
    8 Marc.Staal 0.425
    9 Shea.Weber 0.425
    10 Kevin.Klein 0.428
    11 Sami.Vatanen 0.428
    12 Roman.Josi 0.429
    13 Jordan.Leopold 0.429
    14 Hampus.Lindholm 0.435
    15 Nick.Schultz 0.436
    16 Ryan.Suter 0.439
    17 Francois.Beauchemin 0.439
    18 Jonas.Brodin 0.440
    19 Anton.Volchenkov 0.441
    20 Kyle.Quincey 0.441
    21 Scott.Hannan 0.442
    22 David.Savard 0.442
    23 Erik.Gudbranson 0.443
    24 Ryan.Ellis 0.444
    25 Mattias.Ekholm 0.445
    26 Jared.Spurgeon 0.446
    27 Mirco.Mueller 0.446
    28 Sergei.Gonchar 0.446
    29 Danny.Dekeyser 0.447
    30 Braydon.Coburn 0.448
    31 Carlo.Colaiacovo 0.450
    32 Matt.Bartkowski 0.451
    33 Daniel.Girardi 0.451
    34 John.Moore 0.452
    35 Deryk.Engelland 0.453
    36 Karl.Alzner 0.455
    37 Erik.Karlsson 0.455
    38 Seth.Jones 0.456
    39 Matt.Dumba 0.456
    40 Brad.Stuart 0.456
    41 Raphael.Diaz 0.456
    42 Dmitry.Kulikov 0.457
    43 Tom.Gilbert 0.458
    44 Mark.Giordano 0.458
    45 Nathan.Beaulieu 0.458
    46 Mike.Green 0.459
    47 Ben.Lovejoy 0.459
    48 Jack.Johnson 0.459
    49 Alexei.Emelin 0.460
    50 Matt.Niskanen 0.460
    51 Eric.Gryba 0.460
    52 Marco.Scandella 0.460
    53 Nicklas.Grossmann 0.461
    54 Matt.Irwin 0.461
    55 Alex.Goligoski 0.461
    56 Ryan.McDonagh 0.461
    57 Chris.Butler 0.462
    58 Patrick.Wiercioch 0.462
    59 Carl.Gunnarsson 0.462
    60 Jason.Demers 0.465
    61 Zach.Redmond 0.465
    62 Kevin.Shattenkirk 0.466
    63 Barret.Jackman 0.466
    64 T.J..Brodie 0.466
    65 Cam.Fowler 0.466
    66 John-Michael.Liles 0.466
    67 Mark.Borowiecki 0.467
    68 Robert.Bortuzzo 0.467
    69 Fedor.Tyutin 0.467
    70 Andre.Benoit 0.469
    71 Nick.Holden 0.469
    72 John.Carlson 0.470
    73 Tim.Gleason 0.470
    74 Kris.Letang 0.471
    75 Adam.Larsson 0.471
    76 Ben.Chiarot 0.472
    77 Jyrki.Jokipakka 0.472
    78 Jared.Cowen 0.472
    79 Matt.Hunwick 0.472
    80 Brett.Bellemore 0.472
    81 Paul.Martin 0.472
    82 Mark.Streit 0.473
    83 Niklas.Hjalmarsson 0.473
    84 Zbynek.Michalek 0.473
    85 Chris.Phillips 0.474
    86 Cody.Goloubef 0.475
    87 Paul.Postma 0.475
    88 Cody.Ceci 0.476
    89 Matt.Greene 0.476
    90 Johnny.Oduya 0.476
    91 Jeff.Petry 0.477
    92 Andrew.Greene 0.477
    93 Marek.Zidlicky 0.478
    94 Kevan.Miller 0.479
    95 Andrei.Markov 0.479
    96 Marc-Edouard.Vlasic 0.479
    97 Mark.Barberio 0.479
    98 Justin.Braun 0.480
    99 Tyson.Barrie 0.480
    100 Robyn.Regehr 0.481
    101 Nikita.Nikitin 0.481
    102 Ron.Hainsey 0.481
    103 Eric.Gelinas 0.481
    104 Michal.Jordan 0.482
    105 Adam.McQuaid 0.482
    106 Oliver.Ekman-Larsson 0.482
    107 Yannick.Weber 0.482
    108 Jan.Hejda 0.482
    109 Josh.Gorges 0.483
    110 Connor.Murphy 0.484
    111 Ian.Cole 0.484
    112 James.Wisniewski 0.484
    113 John.Klingberg 0.485
    114 Keith.Yandle 0.485
    115 Brooks.Orpik 0.485
    116 Jonathan.Ericsson 0.485
    117 Andrej.Meszaros 0.485
    118 Andrew.MacDonald 0.486
    119 Christian.Ehrhoff 0.486
    120 Nate.Schmidt 0.486
    121 Christopher.Tanev 0.486
    122 Andrew.Ference 0.487
    123 Trevor.Daley 0.487
    124 Luke.Schenn 0.487
    125 Dennis.Wideman 0.487
    126 Dennis.Seidenberg 0.488
    127 Jay.Bouwmeester 0.488
    128 Simon.Despres 0.488
    129 Tobias.Enstrom 0.489
    130 Dalton.Prout 0.489
    131 Jon.Merrill 0.489
    132 Ryan.Stanton 0.490
    133 Jake.Muzzin 0.490
    134 Nikita.Zadorov 0.490
    135 Mike.Weber 0.491
    136 Tyler.Myers 0.492
    137 Kris.Russell 0.492
    138 Andrej.Sustr 0.492
    139 Nate.Prosser 0.492
    140 Drew.Doughty 0.493
    141 Michael.Del.Zotto 0.493
    142 David.Rundblad 0.493
    143 Rasmus.Ristolainen 0.493
    144 Michael.Stone 0.493
    145 P.K..Subban 0.493
    146 Niklas.Kronwall 0.493
    147 Travis.Hamonic 0.494
    148 Eric.Brewer 0.495
    149 Brent.Burns 0.497
    150 Zdeno.Chara 0.497
    151 Nathan.Guenin 0.497
    152 Tyson.Strachan 0.498
    153 Ryan.Murphy 0.498
    154 Brian.Strait 0.498
    155 Dustin.Byfuglien 0.498
    156 Peter.Harrold 0.500
    157 Duncan.Keith 0.500
    158 Christian.Folin 0.500
    159 David.Schlemko 0.500
    160 Zach.Bogosian 0.500
    161 Jordie.Benn 0.501
    162 Michal.Rozsival 0.502
    163 Kevin.Bieksa 0.502
    164 Alexander.Edler 0.503
    165 Brenden.Dillon 0.503
    166 Mark.Fayne 0.504
    167 Damon.Severson 0.505
    168 Brendan.Smith 0.505
    169 Dougie.Hamilton 0.505
    170 Tim.Erixon 0.505
    171 Jay.Harrison 0.506
    172 Rob.Scuderi 0.507
    173 Mark.Stuart 0.507
    174 Thomas.Hickey 0.507
    175 Nick.Leddy 0.508
    176 Dan.Hamhuis 0.510
    177 Anton.Stralman 0.511
    178 Kevin.Connauton 0.512
    179 Brent.Seabrook 0.512
    180 Jason.Garrison 0.512
    181 Alex.Pietrangelo 0.512
    182 Adam.Pardy 0.513
    183 Roman.Polak 0.515
    184 Lubomir.Visnovsky 0.516
    185 Justin.Faulk 0.517
    186 Stephane.Robidas 0.517
    187 Alec.Martinez 0.517
    188 Torey.Krug 0.517
    189 Luca.Sbisa 0.519
    190 Brayden.McNabb 0.521
    191 Justin.Schultz 0.521
    192 Erik.Johnson 0.523
    193 Calvin.De.Haan 0.524
    194 Jake.Gardiner 0.524
    195 Jacob.Trouba 0.525
    196 Andrej.Sekera 0.526
    197 Matt.Carle 0.527
    198 Victor.Hedman 0.530
    199 Johnny.Boychuk 0.531
    200 Morgan.Rielly 0.531
    201 Martin.Marincin 0.538
    202 Cody.Franson 0.540
    203 Oscar.Klefbom 0.548
    204 Dion.Phaneuf 0.569

    1 FLA 0.433
    2 NSH 0.441
    3 NYR 0.441
    4 ANA 0.442
    5 MIN 0.455
    6 OTT 0.460
    7 WSH 0.466
    8 MTL 0.466
    9 PHI 0.466
    10 CBJ 0.470
    11 S.J 0.472
    12 CGY 0.473
    13 DET 0.478
    14 COL 0.480
    15 STL 0.480
    16 N.J 0.481
    17 BOS 0.487
    18 BUF 0.487
    19 DAL 0.487
    20 ARI 0.491
    21 PIT 0.492
    22 WPG 0.493
    23 L.A 0.495
    24 CHI 0.495
    25 CAR 0.497
    26 VAN 0.501
    27 NYI 0.509
    28 T.B 0.511
    29 EDM 0.513
    30 TOR 0.536

  106. rickithebear says:

    Of the Chiago 3 cups:

    +player in all 3 cup runs:
    Hjarlmasson
    Hossa
    Keith
    Sharp
    Bickell

    +players 2 of the 3 cups
    Toews
    Kane
    Seabrook
    Versteeg

    important + player in single Cup run
    2010
    Campbell+ 11 #1
    Sopel +7 #11
    Ladd +4 #28
    2013
    Oduya +12 #3
    Rozsival +9 #8
    Handzus +7 #14
    2015
    Vermette +5
    Saad +5
    Richards +4

    They still retain Toews: Kane: Hossa: Bickell: Hjarlmasson; Keith; Seabrook
    with Rundblad and Taraveinen showing good in 2015
    added to that Anisimov; Panarin; Tikhnov; daley.

    Establisjhing 70% of your top 6 forwards and top 4 d leads to consistent playoff success.

  107. JD¡™ David O'Connor's Reel says:

    G Money: Chevy Vega

    That’s one of the few cars worse than my first – ’74 Mustang II, 4 cylinder. But when your Dad offers to buy you a car out of the blue, and picks the car, whadayagonnado?

    I think the real reason he chose that car, was that it taught me how to:

    Change a starter (twice)

    Fix door handles/locks

    Change water pump

    Fix oil leaks

    Change shocks

    Replace broken rear springs

    Patch rust holes

    Disassemble engine to find out why it had suddenly become a mosquito fogger

    And all that in less than two years!

  108. G Money says:

    Woodguy: REMEMBER THESE ARE JUST RATES OF CONVERSION OF CORSI TO SCORING CHANCE.
    IF A TEAM GIVES UP A PILE OF CORSI EVENTS THEN EVEN IF THEY HAVE A GOOD CONVERSION RATE IT DOESN’T MAKE THEM A GOOD DEFENSIVE TEAM OVERALL

    Actually, there’s one more step to establish that the resulting ratings mean something.

    Rerun the numbers for: half seasons in 2014, and 2013. Calculate the correlation between 2013-2014 and between 1st and 2nd half of 2014 (you can also just use a random sample of half the games in 2014 each).

    If there is a strong correlation between those two sets of data, then the ability to convert Corsi to scoring chances can legitimately be considered a skill.

    If there isn’t a good correlation, then what you’re seeing is noise.

  109. G Money says:

    JD¡™ David O’Connor’s Reel,

    Ouch.

    I am not handy at all, so all that Vega taught me was the importance of buying well and knowing a good mechanic.

    It is no coincidence that our cars today are Sienna, MDX, and for those increasingly rare drive-for-fun days, NSX. All three at the top of the reliability tables for their respective vehicle types…

  110. Traktor says:

    I think a useful stat looking at D would be measuring the average time it takes from when a forward dumps the puck in to when the puck exits the the blue line. So basically it looks at how fast D can retrieve pucks, how many battles D win along the boards, and whether or not they can get the puck out of their zone with a good pass or chip without taking an icing.

    Obviously the less time D spends in their zone the better and teams these days just dump the puck in and then go from there. Guys like Keith and Hjalmarsson go back for dump ins and have it out of their zone in 10 seconds. Someone like Nikitin takes a vacation.

    Maybe there is already a stat for that.

  111. Braden88 says:

    just saw this on Mitch Moroz on the ON pre-game article by Gregor

    http://oilersnation.com/2015/9/11/oilers-vs-canucks-young-stars-game-one

    •Mitch Moroz trained with Jordan Eberle and other NHL players in Calgary this summer. He is in great shape, and said he has a chip on his shoulder after struggling his first pro season. Moroz also informed me that he battled mono last year. “I didn’t have energy for a few months, and I just never felt right. We finally found the issue in March. It was mono, and it was almost out of my system. It was a relieve mentally, because I was wondering if maybe it (the fatigue) was just in my head.”

    I am not sure if collectively we knew this already. but i sure didn’t. definetly explains his season last year.

    Hopefully he shows significantly better this year. Could be exciting!

  112. G Money says:

    Traktor,

    Dude, that is an awesome idea. I do not think there is any way to measure that directly without the chip tracking or video tracking technology or whatever.

    But there IS a way to approximate it. Most events in the NHL RTSS (real time scoring system) file have locations and zones attached. (If you’re curious what it looks like, I have scraped and munged that data and made it available as massive 65MB per season CSV files on the Data page at NerdAlert).

    So it would be VERY possible to track sequences of consecutive events within the O or D zone and use that to approximate ‘stuck in the zone’ time. It is very similar to the metric I am using to try and approximate puck cycles in my (still breathing) Temporal Corsi project.

    Calculating the length of runs of events in one zone would be easier, and I bet might even impart some measure of information with respect to exactly what you’re talking about – how easily a team can retrieve the puck and exit the zone. The more often and longer you spend in your own zone, the lousier you are defensively.

    I like it!

    I’m adding it to my project list!!!

  113. SwedishPoster says:

    G Money:
    P.P.S. on an unrelated topic, Stealth Nerd Alert:I rewrote my “Boy the Oilers opening night D last year was terrible” post from yesterday and put it up as a NerdAlert, if you’re interested.

    Also, I changed the format of ONA, after unrelenting pressure and criticism from @WheatNOil and @Woodguy55 ( !).It’s now a headline style of interface, which makes it a lot easier to find old articles.

    The new format requires lots of pretty pictures, which I’m slowly filling in.Swedish: hope you are OK with what I found to represent your country!(They look good to my Canuckian eyes, anyway)

    They’re perfect. Three of them are from Stockholm, where I currently live and have for the majority of the last 15 years. And the one on top looks like it’s from the ice hotel in Jukkasjärvi, which isn’t more than a bunch if miles from where I was born and raised. So they’re spot on. If you could get Visby, New York and Rio de Janeiro in there you’ve covered all the cities(+smalltowns) where I’ve lived.

  114. Woodguy says:

    G Money: Actually, there’s one more step to establish that the resulting ratings mean something.

    Rerun the numbers for: half seasons in 2014, and 2013.Calculate the correlation between 2013-2014 and between 1st and 2nd half of 2014 (you can also just use a random sample of half the games in 2014 each).

    If there is a strong correlation between those two sets of data, then the ability to convert Corsi to scoring chances can legitimately be considered a skill.

    If there isn’t a good correlation, then what you’re seeing is noise.

    I’d rather run in-season correlations as partners, QC and team system probably drive a lot of this.

    Also,

    I starting to put together a Team Rel thing and just stopped.

    Like most defensive metrics it weights 3rd pairing Dmen too heavy.

    There really needs to be better QC metrics.

    Everything we have are far too blunt to be useful.

  115. Woodguy says:

    G Money: Actually, there’s one more step to establish that the resulting ratings mean something.

    Rerun the numbers for: half seasons in 2014, and 2013.Calculate the correlation between 2013-2014 and between 1st and 2nd half of 2014 (you can also just use a random sample of half the games in 2014 each).

    If there is a strong correlation between those two sets of data, then the ability to convert Corsi to scoring chances can legitimately be considered a skill.

    If there isn’t a good correlation, then what you’re seeing is noise.

    When I’m back from the island I’ll put together data sets of odd/even games and send them to you.

    I’m not so sure this metric tells us much.

    Heavy, heavy team effects, QC effects, QT effects……….

    Figuring out Dmen is hard.

  116. Traktor says:

    G Money:
    Traktor,

    Dude, that is an awesome idea.I do not think there is any way to measure that directly without the chip tracking or video tracking technology or whatever.

    But there IS a way to approximate it.Most events in the NHL RTSS (real time scoring system) file have locations and zones attached.(If you’re curious what it looks like, I have scraped and munged that data and made it available as massive 65MB per season CSV files on the Data page at NerdAlert).

    So it would be VERY possible to track sequences of consecutive events within the O or D zone and use that to approximate ‘stuck in the zone’ time.It is very similar to the metric I am using to try and approximate puck cycles in my (still breathing) Temporal Corsi project.

    Calculating the length of runs of events in one zone would be easier, and I bet might even impart some measure of information with respect to exactly what you’re talking about – how easily a team can retrieve the puck and exit the zone.The more often and longer you spend in your own zone, the lousier you are defensively.

    I like it!

    I’m adding it to my project list!!!

    Measuring that would take away a lot of the variables that mess with other stats. The number would be highly individually earned and it would measure what really matters most. Without looking at anything else I’d wager that the players that can get the puck out fastest are the ones you want on your team.

  117. rickithebear says:

    SCA/CA ratio – HSCA/60
    1 Aaron.Ekblad 0.420 – #1 10.74
    2 Roman.Josi 0.421 – #31 13.04
    3 Shea.Weber 0.427 – #35 13.27
    4 Sami.Vatanen 0.429 – #13 112.45
    5 Jonas.Brodin 0.431 – #14 12.52
    6 Ryan.Ellis 0.432 – #10 12.09
    7 Clayton.Stoner 0.433 #21 – 12.78
    8 Ryan.Suter 0.438 – #35 13.27
    9 Marc.Methot 0.438 – #29 13.03
    10 Dan.Boyle 0.438 – #34 13.20
    11 Ryan.Murray 0.440 – #12 12.42
    12 Dylan.Olsen 0.440 – #25 12.89
    13 David.Savard 0.440 – #39 13.37
    14 Marc.Staal 0.441 – #55 13.67
    15 Mattias.Ekholm 0.443 – #3 11.88
    16 Scott.Hannan 0.444 – #51 13.59
    17 Hampus.Lindholm 0.444 – #66 13.83
    18 Robert.Bortuzzo 0.445 – #49 13.52
    19 Jordan.Leopold 0.447 – #10 12.07
    20 Deryk.Engelland 0.448 – #121 15.54
    21 Justin.Braun 0.449 – #57 13.71
    22 Nick.Schultz 0.449 – #131
    23 Matt.Irwin 0.450 – #89 14.61
    24 Jared.Spurgeon 0.450 – #23 12.86
    25 Kevin.Klein 0.450 – #112 15.18
    26 Brad.Stuart 0.451 – #129 15.72
    27 Jason.Demers 0.451 – #43 13.39
    28 Anton.Volchenkov 0.452 – #4 11.91
    29 Kyle.Quincey 0.453 – #20 12.76
    30 Marc-Edouard.Vlasic 0.453 – #26 12.94
    31 Daniel.Girardi 0.454 – #109 15.06
    32 Francois.Beauchemin 0.454 – #113 15.20
    33 Mark.Borowiecki 0.456 – #101 14.86
    34 Victor.Bartley 0.456 #79 14.33
    35 Danny.Dekeyser 0.457 – #28 13.00
    36 Matt.Niskanen 0.458 – #40 13.38
    37 Raphael.Diaz 0.458 – #138 15.92
    38 Ryan.McDonagh 0.458 – #105 14.98
    39 Brian.Campbell 0.459 – #5 11.94
    40 Nikita.Nikitin 0.459 – #87 14.58
    41 Kevan.Miller 0.459 – #19 12.66
    42 Marco.Scandella 0.460 – #47 13.46
    43 Nathan.Beaulieu 0.460 – #107 15.01
    44 Ian.Cole 0.460 – #16 12.61
    45 Bryan.Allen 0.461 – #82 14.39
    46 John.Moore 0.461 – #96 14.77
    47 Nicklas.Grossmann 0.461 – #136 15.87
    48 Braydon.Coburn 0.462 #62 13.78
    49 Seth.Jones 0.462 – #46 13.45
    50 Jack.Johnson 0.462 – #45 13.42

  118. SwedishPoster says:

    I have been playing around with the idea of counting puck gains for each individual defenseman with puck gains being every defensive play by a D leading to the team regaining the puck, every hit, stickcheck, interception, battle and puck race that leads to either the player himself or a teammate gets the puck back from the opposition. I’m also thinking if counting plays that leads to the puck leaving the defensive zone or staying in the offensive zone.
    I also won’t count uncontested puckraces or races that are 60-40 in the D-mans favour.
    I’ll test drive during the pre-season games to see if I can do it live while watching the games without losing focus on the overall game, I want to enjoy the games fully and I don’t have time to rewatch every game.

    I hope it might add something to the evaluation of the defensemen.

  119. G Money says:

    Woodguy: I’d rather run in-season correlations as partners, QC and team system probably drive a lot of this.

    I think if you can establish repeatability at the team level, it would avoid much of the issue of partners, systems, etc. Once established, it should be enough to at least allow one to impute the value of the statistic at the individual level.

    Woodguy: When I’m back from the island I’ll put together data sets of odd/even games and send them to you.
    I’m not so sure this metric tells us much.

    If you have the data, just make sure the headers are consistent and I’m pretty sure I can automate the rest, including the even/odd sampling.

    Woodguy: Figuring out Dmen is hard.

    Yep . . . like I said earlier, b*stards they are!!!

  120. G Money says:

    SwedishPoster: it’s from the ice hotel in Jukkasjärvi, which isn’t more than a bunch if miles from where I was born and raised

    Sweet, that’s exactly what it is!

    I’ve got two more generic Sweden pictures, and found one of Visby town wall. I think it might confuse the issue to use pictures of New York or Rio!!

  121. hunter1909 says:

    Ducey: If Moroz can put up 35 – 40 points in the AHL this year, he starts to become an interesting option.

    Moroz can be the cluster’s John Ferguson. But it’s up to him.

  122. hunter1909 says:

    John Ferguson was a badass.

  123. Lowetide says:

    Only issues I have with Moroz are skating, consistency. Quite normal for that age and I do think the Oilers are silly with their TOI for 20 year olds.

    https://lowetide.ca/2015/07/25/training-camp-hopefuls-no-1-mitchell-moroz/

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