PS G3 2015-16: OILERS V. JETS

The Oilers have gotten themselves down to a manageable number by running “A” and “B” rosters for the rest of camp. According to Todd McLellan, you’ll see a some from each side tonight if you’re heading to the rink (and you should go early, security takes a little longer now for the crowd to get in).

  • Todd McLellan: “I told our players at the opening meeting that this would happen. I also gave them a list of 10 or 11 players from my days in San Jose who ended up playing on the hockey club. They came from that (AHL) group and took jobs from this (NHL) group. Powerful. It was a powerful thing.”
  • Darnell Nurse: “It’s definitely something that was mentioned earlier in camp.  “(Move up is) something I’m aiming to do. No matter what group I’m practicing with, everything comes into my control with the way that I work and the work ethic I bring every day and my level of execution. That’s all I’m really trying to do and when I get the opportunity to jump into games, make the most of them.” Source
  • Todd McLellan: “I think Darnell would have easily fit into the early morning group today, without a problem. I think you’ll see Darnell in that group over the next little bit, simple as that. I think he has every tool that’s needed to play in the National Hockey League. Will he need some time? We’ll figure that out as we go. I think he’s going to be a very good National Hockey League player for a lot of years. It’s not even a test for him. We’re not practicing with nine defencemen. It doesn’t work that way. Don’t be surprised if you see Darnell in our group real quick for his opportunity.”

I think Reinhart wins the day. He has a year on Nurse and the club probably feels the Klefbom treatment (48 games in the AHL at 20) is the better way. I still think Nurse is on this team sooner than later. We wait. I published this at ON last night, but here are the defensive fancy stats for the @Calgary game on Monday night—they are sorted by Corsi for % 5×5 and put the Nurse—Laleggia pairing in a positive light (and they adore Klefbom—Schultz):

CORSI AGAINST CALGARY

One game in, barely a mark on the page. Still, it’s something to keep an eye one as we move forward this pre-season. I have to say the Schultz number is eye-popping stuff.

mcdavid rookie capture

THE “A” TEAM (27)

  • Hall—McDavid—Draisaitl (Leon’s a utility forward, that backhand pass could be worth millions)
  • Pouliot—Nuge—Eberle (Still the 1line but it won’t be long. Ridiculous 2line, give your head a shake)
  • Korpikoski—Lander—Yakupov (Lander gets Yakupov but losing Leon from this line hurts)
  • Klinkhammer—Letestu—Hendricks (Last forward could be Klinkhammer)
  • Gazdic—Miller—Pitlick (All three waiver players, suspect two get sent down)
  • Sekera—Fayne (Top pairing, I think they’ll start the season together)
  • Klefbom—Schultz (Second pairing, I think they’ll start the season together)
  • Reinhart—Nikitin (Third pair opening night? Could be)
  • Ference—Gryba (I can’t see this pairing having success)
  • Talbot—Nilsson—Scrivens (This could be the best battle in camp)
  • Teddy Purcell (injured)

nurse capture1

THE “B” TEAM (23)

  • G: Laurent Brossoit, Eetu Laurikainen
  • D: Brandon Davidson, Darnell Nurse, Brad Hunt, Jordan Oesterle, David Musil, Joey Laleggia, Dillon Simpson, Martin  Gernat
  • C: Bogdan Yakimov, Jujhar Khaira, Kyle Platzer, Phil McRae
  • L: Anton Slepyshev, Ryan Hamilton, Mitchell Moroz, Kale Kessy, Josh Winquist, Braden Christoffer
  • R: Iiro Pakarinen, Greg Chase, Matt Ford

Among the men on this list, I’ll suggest Brossoit, Davidson, Nurse, Oesterle, Yakimov, Slepyshev and Pakarinen have the best chance of spending extended time in the NHL this year. It’s interesting to see a new coach come in and assess things in his own way. Todd Nelson and Dallas Eakins both used Iiro Pakarinen as a Baron and Oiler, but McLellan hasn’t used the young Finn much. Could be injury, but it’s also true the faster prospects like Miller are getting the push under TMac.

TRADE?

I think we’ll see a trade, probably sooner than later. The questions are “who goes?” and “who are they making room for?” although “where?” is also an interesting item. I think Nikita Nikitin is the obvious candidate to go, although Brandon Davidson may be dealt before the waiver crunch. Davidson is also a candidate to make the team, along with Griffin Reinhart and Nurse. If I were to guess the opening night roster on defense, this would be it:

  • Sekera—Fayne
  • Klefbom—Schultz
  • Reinhart—Gryba

I think that RH side needs an upgrade and do believe Peter Chiarelli will be aggressive. One thing I’ve noticed so far—Fayne and Gryba have a lot of the same qualities. It’ll make it tougher for TMac to mix and match his defense (going to need two puck movers LH side). Something has to give, maybe the deal looks different than we imagine.

shepherd 1

LOWDOWN WITH LOWETIDE

The beat goes on (la-de-da-dee-dee) at 10 this morning, TSN 1260. Scheduled to appear:

  • Bruce McCurdy, Cult of Hockey. Oilers v. Jets, his impressions in TC so far.
  • Jeff Krushell, Krush Performance. We’ll talk about sports injuries across the board and the fact they seem to be increasing in every sport.
  • Travis Yost, TSN. We’ll talk about the lack of balance for NHL teams in camp and about trade possibilities. This inevitably ends up with Yost and I making a trade between the Sens and Oil. Also, goalies in Calgary and McDavid’s linemates.
  • Open mic. At 11:25, you are free to ramble on, as the kids (don’t say). Calls, texts, pigeon gram.

10-1260 text, @Lowetide on twitter. Lt._Eric rocking the tunes, a chance to win the WGTL No. 6 and maybe the Oilers will trade a defenseman to Boston this morning. I’ll post the rosters when they’re final.

written by

The author didn‘t add any Information to his profile yet.
Related Posts

428 Responses to "PS G3 2015-16: OILERS V. JETS"

« Older Comments
  1. vishcosity says:

    If you haven’t heard of google fibre, just wait. This shit is incredible. I heart San Fransisco for most things except prices. And the entitled attitude of middle aged women in Feinstein country. They will run you over to get a spot by the door of Whole Foods. Scowl to have to wait for my pedestrian self. Unreal the audacity I’ve witnessed. Inside another powered her way through a pack of children with her basket at head level. Shocked disbelief three different times just this week.

    Happy for the team and the long suffering fan base. We were working thru the game and am super grateful for the in-game reports.

    Jultz, really? if I’m not mistaken, only Woodguy actually called that.

  2. JD¡™ says:

    RexLibris,

    I thought we were talking about moments of futility.

  3. striker says:

    It’s just pre-season…and breathe,,,it’s just pre-season…and breathe…

  4. RexLibris says:

    JD¡™:
    RexLibris,

    I thought we were talking about moments of futility.

    OH! I missed that.

    Okay, 1991 to present.

    I win.

  5. JD¡™ says:

    RexLibris: I win.

    Oh yeah? Well I don’t have to watch Flames games and report on them, so I win!

  6. Southern Oil says:

    vishcosity:
    If you haven’t heard of google fibre, just wait.This shit is incredible.

    They are in the process of rolling it out here in Atlanta. Prices I believe, for the mid to upper level plans are more with Google than Comcast but the speeds and data capabilities blow the competition out of the water. I have heard, they have a similar performance plan to Comcast – 7 year contract for $300 installation fee. No charges after that. It’s going to blow a hole right through the middle of Comcast. I can’t wait!

  7. Магия 10 says:

    Clay: It is only 2 preseason games, but Schultz has definitely been a different player away from the puck than I’ve ever seen him.

    If he’s a 30pt dman who isn’t a defensive liability this year?Good lord that plugs a hole on the RHD.

    The narrative is changing faster than the player. If he gets it together under TMac by spring the narrative wIll be how stupid that Chia challenged him with a 1 year deal.

    Would be interesting to determine score effects on his icetine last year, but you’d think a team that didn’t trail so much and rely on him so much for offence, would have developed him better. Still early going but some positive arrows.

  8. Yeti says:

    jp: Someone who can’t keep up ideally.

    Luke Gazdic is your man for the job.

  9. dangilitis says:

    RexLibris: That?! Really?

    No. Eberle’s first NHL goal, against the Flames, or one of Smyth’s last at Rexall which was also against the Flames and rebounded off his crest into the net while he was standing over the goalie. Those are moments I’ll never forget.

    That and the time Salo saved a goal down the back of his pants.

    The video link I posted was in response to LT’s comments about Oilers bungling 2 on 1s. There are many examples of those. However, last year’s play for me was incredible because I have never seen the ineptitude of a 2 on 0 quite like that before.

    And, yes, I will always remember where I was when the Stefan play went down (2 of my friends turned off the TV when Bergeron coughed up the puck so I had to update them the next day). My favourite Smyth moment outside of the playoff run was his record breaking hatty against SJ in the 3rd, because I was there, there was incredible energy in the building, and I had made a Calgary buddy wear my hat to start the 3rd for good luck (which he later was more than happy to throw onto the ice)…

  10. Lowetide says:

    dangilitis: The video link I posted was in response to LT’s comments about Oilers bungling 2 on 1s. There are many examples of those. However, last year’s play for me was incredible because I have never seen the ineptitude of a 2 on 0 quite like that before.

    And, yes, I will always remember where I was when the Stefan play went down (2 of my friends turned off the TV when Bergeron coughed up the puck so I had to update them the next day). My favourite Smyth moment outside of the playoff run was his record breaking hatty against SJ in the 3rd, because I was there, there was incredible energy in the building, and I had made a Calgary buddy wear my hat to start the 3rd for good luck (which he later was more than happy to throw onto the ice)…

    I remember the moment where Purcell got hammered and thinking ‘why do I bother?’ and that’s something that happened a lot but that play was kind of memorable.

  11. G Money says:

    First look!

    Danger Adjusted Fenwick for Oiler D pairs from last year (min 50 Fenwick events):

    player1 player2 fenfor fenagn fen% dafenfor dafenagn daf%

    Keith Aulie Brandon Davidson 51 66 43.6% 57 76 42.9%
    Keith Aulie Mark Fayne 58 88 39.7% 63 84 42.7%
    Keith Aulie Andrew Ference 33 55 37.5% 28 54 33.8%
    Keith Aulie Justin Schultz 56 57 49.6% 57 72 44.1%
    Mark Fayne Andrew Ference 42 61 40.8% 41 58 41.5%
    Mark Fayne Oscar Klefbom 115 144 44.4% 107 142 42.8%
    Mark Fayne Martin Marincin 181 220 45.1% 173 236 42.3%
    Mark Fayne Nikita Nikitin 181 183 49.7% 164 199 45.1%
    Andrew Ference Jordan Oesterle 40 41 49.4% 39 43 47.8%
    Andrew Ference Jeff Petry 432 535 44.7% 454 564 44.6%
    Andrew Ference Justin Schultz 93 134 41.0% 90 131 40.8%
    Brad Hunt Justin Schultz 99 98 50.3% 91 104 46.7%
    Oscar Klefbom Jeff Petry 62 53 53.9% 59 50 54.4%
    Oscar Klefbom Justin Schultz 534 492 52.0% 552 539 50.6%
    Martin Marincin David Musil 36 56 39.1% 48 58 45.2%
    Martin Marincin Nikita Nikitin 57 44 56.4% 65 40 61.9%
    Martin Marincin Jeff Petry 39 30 56.5% 32 32 50.5%
    Martin Marincin Justin Schultz 69 49 58.5% 85 46 64.6%
    Nikita Nikitin Jeff Petry 50 56 47.2% 52 50 50.8%
    Nikita Nikitin Justin Schultz 110 124 47.0% 108 117 48.0%
    Jeff Petry Justin Schultz 44 31 58.7% 39 32 54.8%

  12. G Money says:

    Concept, notes, how to read:

    1 – concept is: adjust each Fenwick for or against based on shot type and location. So for example, if a pair gives up 10 ft slapshot, which is 2.34 times as dangerous as the average shot, it will count as -2.34 fenwicks, not just one. Similarly, if that pair gives up a backhand from 20 ft away, that shot will count as -0.75 instead of a full shot, since it’s 75% as dangerous as an average shot. Same thing for fenwick for.

    2 – the end result is that the ff/fa is now weighted by how dangerous the shots gained or given up are. A shot is no longer just a shot!

    3 – the way you read this is that if the ff% goes up from normal to dangerous, it means that pair is either giving up less dangerous or getting more dangerous (or both) shots than ordinary Fenwick indicates. e.g. Nikitin-Petry. Conversely, if the number goes down, the pairing gave up more dangerous chances than their unadjusted numbers indicate. e.g. Schultz-Hunt

    4 – this is a number that gives you a combination of high, medium, and low danger changes all blended together, while also incorporating the volume of each type given up

    5 – note that these ordinary fen #’s are close to what other systems produce, but not exact. Not sure where these differences (usually small) are coming from yet

  13. G Money says:

    For the entire team last year, the EV FF% was 47.9%. It was 46.9% on a danger adjusted basis – confirming unsurprisingly that the Oilers were less dangerous a team than their (already poor) FF% indicated.

    (Note: take all these numbers with a grain of salt. Just completed the scripts and have only done some cursory testing. And still need full location rather than just distance. Also ZS. Also TOI. But finally something tangible!)

  14. Yeti says:

    G Money:
    Concept, notes, how to read:

    Thank goodness. I thought you had turned into GMoneytheBear for a moment.

  15. Yeti says:

    G Money:
    For the entire team last year, the EV FF% was 47.9%.It was 46.9% on a danger adjusted basis – confirming unsurprisingly that the Oilers were less dangerous a team than their (already poor) FF% indicated.

    (Note: take all these numbers with a grain of salt.Just completed the scripts and have only done some cursory testing.And still need full location rather than just distance.Also ZS.Also TOI.But finally something tangible!)

    Would/could you further modify these by zone starts?

  16. SayItAin'tSo, Gretz, SayItAint'sSo! says:

    Liked what I saw from Schultz big time, there is a different player there so far. Ya still made a couple of iffy reads but honestly that was/is always going to happen to him. The intensity, the hustle and holy crap he actually jumped a guy who had just hit Klefbom! these are all new attributes and I like them!

    Was slightly disappointed with Nurse tonight, seemed a little pre-occupied with throwing a hit or mixing it up, as others have said trying to do too much. I am a little surprised with his defensive partners as well though. I like Osterle but putting two AHL guys together seems like it will have Nurse fighting an uphill battle compared with the others who have more established partners. Then again maybe thats the whole point.

    Anyone that is still on the trade Eberle bandwagon is crazy. That line didn’t look the greatest tonight but there are moments (overtime especially) that once the puck gets on his stick you sit up just a little straighter to watch, such soft hands. Huge-Eberle-Pouliout are going to make teams sick this year, they have gotten bigger (Nuge is noticeably bigger IMO) and too fast (Pouliot has looked really quick to my eye through two games) and matching up against them and Hall-McD, its just going to give fits.

    And I’m with whoever mentioned it earlier, Hendricks for captain. McLellan would have gotten an eye on him in the WCs, the room seems to love him and the guy seems to be a standout person. Give it to him if you’re unsure between Hall and McD.

    Talbot looked good, I thought he really calmed down as the game went on and yes should have had the second one but I’ll cut him some slack, it’s probably just rust.

    Expectations are tempered but I am very excited nonetheless

  17. Kmart99 says:

    I was at the game last night, and I just wanted to make a couple notes on Nurse’s defensive/breakout game.

    Nurse is at his best when he trusts himself to win a battle.

    When he was in the Oilers’ zone racing for a puck, battling for a puck, or even when he had already won the puck battle he seemed 50/50 to make the right decision. Far too often he would blindly chip the puck around the boards because he was feeling pressure from a Jets’ forechecker.

    A few times, however, when he decided not to rush his decision making, he won the battle and was never stripped of the puck. Man can he skate the puck up the ice. Nurse is a monster, no doubt about it. He needs to trust himself enough against nhl players and know that just because there’s a forechecker on you, doesnt mean you cant maintain control of the puck on your own. I just wish he wouldnt rush the play so often in the D zone. When he decides to wait just a second longer to locate his options he’s much more successful. Furthermore, I have ZERO issue with him skating the puck out of the Dzone and in to the Ozone on his own when his options are limited. He’s great at it. Once he’s in the zone he just needs to work on transition the ppuck to the trailing forwards and getting back to the point.

    He did roam a little bit too much in his own end, and the Talbot screen was an obvious bead scratcher, but for me, the biggest issue was rushing his decisions when pressured by a forechecker. How about this Darnell…. Prove that you can lose a battle, prove that you can be stripped cleanly, and prove that youre not the meanest SOB to go in to the corners against. There’s no need to rush just because there’s pressure. Brush off the pressure, and take a look before just chipping the puck away, because you are often the best option with the puck in that situation.

    “You know you’re having a good game as a D man when the opposition stops entering the zone on your side. Not only that, they avoid your side of the ice entirely. They don’t want to get hurt. That was, in my opinion, the biggest advantage to playing a style that was a little over the line.” – CFP. A little… Heh heh

  18. frjohnk says:

    G Money:
    Concept, notes, how to read:

    1 – concept is: adjust each Fenwick for or against based on shot type and location.So for example, if a pair gives up 10 ft slapshot, which is 2.34 times as dangerous as the average shot, it will count as -2.34 fenwicks, not just one.Similarly, if that pair gives up a backhand from 20 ft away, that shot will count as -0.75 instead of a full shot, since it’s 75% as dangerous as an average shot.Same thing for fenwick for.

    2 – the end result is that the ff/fa is now weighted by how dangerous the shots gained or given up are.A shot is no longer just a shot!

    3 – the way you read this is that if the ff% goes up from normal to dangerous, it means that pair is either giving up less dangerous or getting more dangerous (or both) shots than ordinary Fenwick indicates.e.g. Nikitin-Petry.Conversely, if the number goes down, the pairing gave up more dangerous chances than their unadjusted numbers indicate.e.g. Schultz-Hunt

    4 – this is a number that gives you a combination of high, medium, and low danger changes all blended together, while also incorporating the volume of each type given up

    5 – note that these ordinary fen #’s are close to what other systems produce, but not exact.Not sure where these differences (usually small) are coming from yet

    Great stuff.

    One thing, instead of calling these shots fenwick, you should come up with a new name.

  19. PhrankLee says:

    I was so encouraged by Schultz play last night. I mean he looked really involved and committed and fast and physically engaged.

    He said on garbage bag day last year he was going to work hard all summer in order to battle harder this year. The young man deserves some respect for last night. Even if LT hates him like Smid.

  20. Ryan says:

    Ryan:
    Schultz has this curious engaged demeanor.It’s only odd because it’s Schultz.

    This is where I noticed a spike in schultz’s eyeglow per 60… Before he jumped into the scrum etc.

  21. Jordan says:

    frjohnk: Great stuff.

    One thing, instead of calling these shots fenwick, you should come up with a new name.

    G Money,

    Well that’s the easy part:

    Want to know how good a defensive pairing is? You just need to see “D Money”.

    All the players already want to see D Money. They’ve been chasing D Money for years.

    Now, we can give all of them D Money. And show them not just why D Money is key, but also how to improve their D Money so they can get a raise and make more money.

  22. Pouzar says:

    Kmart99:
    I was at the game last night, and I just wanted to make a couple notes on Nurse’s defensive/breakout game.

    Nurse is at his best when he trusts himself to win a battle.

    When he was in the Oilers’ zone racing for a puck, battling for a puck, or even when he had already won the puck battle he seemed 50/50 to make the right decision. Far too often he would blindly chip the puck around the boards because he was feeling pressure from a Jets’ forechecker.

    A few times, however, when he decided not to rush his decision making, he won the battle and was never stripped of the puck.Man can he skate the puck up the ice.Nurse is a monster, no doubt about it.He needs to trust himself enough against nhl players and know that just because there’s a forechecker on you, doesnt mean you cant maintain control of the puck on your own.I just wish he wouldnt rush the play so often in the D zone.When he decides to wait just a second longer to locate his options he’s much more successful.Furthermore, I have ZERO issue with him skating the puck out of the Dzone and in to the Ozone on his own when his options are limited.He’s great at it. Once he’s in the zone he just needs to work on transition the ppuck to the trailing forwards and getting back to the point.

    He did roam a little bit too much in his own end, and the Talbot screen was an obvious bead scratcher, but for me, the biggest issue was rushing his decisions when pressured by a forechecker. How about this Darnell…. Prove that you can lose a battle, prove that you can be stripped cleanly, and prove that youre not the meanest SOB to go in to the corners against.There’s no need to rush just because there’s pressure. Brush off the pressure, and take a look before just chipping the puck away, because you are often the best option with the puck in that situation.

    “You know you’re having a good game as a D man when the opposition stops entering the zone on your side.Not only that, they avoid your side of the ice entirely.They don’t want to get hurt. That was, in my opinion, the biggest advantage to playing a style that was a little over the line.” – CFP.A little… Heh heh

    Maybe the best scouting report I’ve read on his play yet. Especially the “rushing his decisions” and not quite trusting himself to win the battles and rushing the puck out of dzone and up ice is a GOOD thing. Excellent observations and spot on imo. Well done Kmart.

  23. Pouzar says:

    Could have sworn I saw Schultz flatten Lowry in the 3rd period along the boards. Anyone else see that?

  24. Ryan says:

    I hadn’t noticed till just now, TJ Brodie apparently suffered a hand fracture from blocking a shot in the Oilers game.

    http://www.edmontonjournal.com/sports/flames+star+defender+brodie+sidelined+with+broken+hand/11385582/story.html

  25. jp says:

    Ryan: This is where I noticed a spike in schultz’s eyeglow per 60…Before he jumped into the scrum etc.

    Really glad to hear the underlying number match what we think we’re seeing with Schultz.

  26. jp says:

    G Money:
    First look!

    Danger Adjusted Fenwick for Oiler D pairs from last year (min 50 Fenwick events):

    player1 player2 fenfor fenagn fen% dafenfor dafenagn daf%

    Keith Aulie Brandon Davidson51 66 43.6% 57 76 42.9%
    Keith Aulie Mark Fayne58 88 39.7% 63 84 42.7%
    Keith Aulie Andrew Ference33 55 37.5% 28 54 33.8%
    Keith Aulie Justin Schultz56 57 49.6% 57 72 44.1%
    Mark Fayne Andrew Ference42 61 40.8% 41 58 41.5%
    Mark Fayne Oscar Klefbom115 144 44.4% 107 142 42.8%
    Mark Fayne Martin Marincin181 220 45.1% 173 236 42.3%
    Mark Fayne Nikita Nikitin181 183 49.7% 164 199 45.1%
    Andrew Ference Jordan Oesterle40 41 49.4% 39 43 47.8%
    Andrew Ference Jeff Petry432 535 44.7% 454 564 44.6%
    Andrew Ference Justin Schultz93 134 41.0% 90 131 40.8%
    Brad Hunt Justin Schultz99 98 50.3% 91 104 46.7%
    Oscar Klefbom Jeff Petry62 53 53.9% 59 50 54.4%
    Oscar Klefbom Justin Schultz534 492 52.0% 552 539 50.6%
    Martin Marincin David Musil36 56 39.1% 48 58 45.2%
    Martin Marincin Nikita Nikitin57 44 56.4% 65 40 61.9%
    Martin Marincin Jeff Petry39 30 56.5% 32 32 50.5%
    Martin Marincin Justin Schultz69 49 58.5% 85 46 64.6%
    Nikita Nikitin Jeff Petry50 56 47.2% 52 50 50.8%
    Nikita Nikitin Justin Schultz110 124 47.0% 108 117 48.0%
    Jeff Petry Justin Schultz44 31 58.7% 39 32 54.8%

    Very cool.

    I’m not sure Fayne comes out looking too good here.

    Also, Jeff Petry and Marty Marincin. Looking just at performance, 6 of the 7 times 50% shows up one or both were involved. Sigh.

  27. Pajamah says:

    Pouzar:
    Could have sworn I saw Schultz flatten Lowry in the 3rd period along the boards. Anyone else see that?

    You did infact see that. Me and my seat neighbor, who I’d never met before both yelled at the same time, and I am paraphrasing here….

    “Holy shit, was that Schultz, he’s NEVER done that before!!??”

  28. Pouzar says:

    Pajamah: You did infact see that. Me and my seat neighbor, who I’d never met before both yelled at the same time, and I am paraphrasing here….

    “Holy shit, was that Schultz, he’s NEVER done that before!!??”

    Sweet…I knew it! He hit him with some authority too.

« Older Comments

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!
© Copyright - Lowetide.ca