SCRIVENS ON WAIVERS, NIKITIN CLEARS

by Lowetide

The old line about a GM acquiring players to use them rings true this morning. Edmonton has a new backup goalie, a giant from Sweden named Anders Nilsson. Ben Scrivens is on waivers and one suspects someone picks him up. All the best to Mr. Scrivens.

Nikita Nikitin clears and now we’re going to find out how each side wants this to play out. If Anton Belov can be successful in the KHL, then so can Nikitin. At 29, he could have several successful seasons in Europe. That said, the Oilers may in fact want him in the minors working on things (as Todd McLellan said yesterday) with an eye to a return to the NHL. Either way, it was a tough 15 months in Edmonton for Nikitin, who was well paid for his efforts but it came at a price. There may be people in the world who would have passed on that contract offer.

I am not one of them.

You may also like

277 comments

eidy October 4, 2015 - 2:57 pm

So NSF actually stood for Nikitin, Scrivens, and Ferrence.

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 2:58 pm

And these pretzels are making me thirsty!

Ryan October 4, 2015 - 2:59 pm

Woodguy:
Bruce McCurdy,

The goalie aging curve isn’t a blanket statement or opinion, its just data:

http://hockey-graphs.com/2014/03/21/how-well-do-goalies-age-a-look-at-a-goalie-aging-curve/

Why are you posting comments I made 24 hrs ago thus making it utterly impossible to disagree with you? 🙂

Now that I think about it… It’s been ages since you and I have had a major disagreement.

The last one that I can recall was when you told me/us that Arcobello was better than Andrew Shaw.

godot10 October 4, 2015 - 3:00 pm

rickithebear:
Since day 1 and looking again last night.
The cap and contracts did not allow for
Mcdavid 3.775
Driasatl 3.4M
Reinhart 3.213Mall on the team.

Most of that is bonuses, and no way they make all those bonuses. Plus, since there were no buyouts, there is ample cap room next year for a couple of million of bonus overages if they happen.

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 3:01 pm
blainer October 4, 2015 - 3:03 pm

G Money: I’m not shedding a tear for Ben – I’m shedding a tear for Our Team.

This is a bad bad stupid stupid move.Can’t emphasize this enough.

We go into the season now with a guy with a terrific ceiling (who was an excellent bet and I still believe that), but with a high risk of ‘starters dip’.It’s a thing.

We now have as our only backup to him a guy whose only NHL experience is 23 games at sub-900, a .936 KHL record on a team that averaged better than that the previous four seasons, and two shutouts against Jr level pre-season competition.

If Scrivens gets picked up, Talbot dips, and Nilsson shits the bed (again) when faced with actual and not fake NHL competition, we are hooped.

Once again, dead in the water, just like last year when we went into the season with a guy with a decent history but at high risk of starters dip, and a backup with just 30 NHL games at .915 (a totally inadequate sample, but way better than Nilsson).

We are basically now back to where we were last year with our goaltenders.

Bad, stupid move.

This was a competition and we are not privy to the practices, attitudes and or confidence problems. Scrivens is not getting claimed.. if our goalies shit the bed he will be re called.. No need to worry about this one. Chia has handled the goaltending well IMO..

rickithebear October 4, 2015 - 3:04 pm

As for bitching About
Nikitin 1yr 4.5M
Ference 2 year 3.25

15/16 – 16/17 – 17/18 – 18/19
Nikitin 1.5M – 1.5M – 0 – 0
Ference .067M – 1.17M – 1.17M – 1.17M

It was PC’s choice!

godot10 October 4, 2015 - 3:05 pm

The other advantage of waiving Scrivens now is that for the next 30 days, the Oilers can send either Scrivens or Nilsson up or down at will, to give either games in Bakersfield.

rickithebear October 4, 2015 - 3:06 pm

godot10: Most of that is bonuses, and no way they make all those bonuses.Plus, since there were no buyouts, there is ample cap room next year for a couple of million of bonus overages if they happen.

That is PC’s choice.

G Money October 4, 2015 - 3:09 pm

Woodguy: Your flipping between using pre-season data and dismissing pre-season data is giving me whiplash

Again – I’ve said this pretty consistently.

Pre-season pits you against sub-NHL rosters, with the few NHL regulars playing usually playing at half speed. The effort and the results really matter only for bubble players.

So good results in pre-season mean little. Most of the time, bubble players who rock the world in pre-season disappear once the bullets start flying for real.

But bad results for pre-season for a bubble player are a bad sign. It is exceedingly rare for someone to do poorly against sub-NHL players and then do better against NHL players.

So if your bubble goalie lights it up in pre-season, it means *nothing* until he faces an actual NHL roster of players trying to actually win.

But if your goalie – unless he’s Henrik Lundqvist or Carey Price and has zero chance of being on the bubble – shits the bed in pre-season, that is not a promising sign for the regular season. It gets vastly harder from here, not easier.

A bubble player can (and should) play himself off the team with a bad performance in preseason, but a stellar performance at best earns you a shot at the real thing.

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 3:09 pm

rickithebear:
Since day 1 and looking again last night.
The cap and contracts did not allow for
Mcdavid 3.775
Driasatl 3.4M
Reinhart 3.213Mall on the team.

Yes it does

kinger_OIL October 4, 2015 - 3:10 pm

Woodguy,

– Bruce was right to call you out, and you moved the goalposts in response.

– The data in that analysis shows some goalies do get better as they get older.

– So you go from a blanket statement about how goalies don’t get better as they age to a goalie aging curve. Totally different.

– Of course on average goalies get worse as they age, but some do improve, untill of course they all get old and busted.

– Tim Thomas was a better goalie at 33 than 26, as was Hasek as examples.

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 3:10 pm

James Mirtle ‏@mirtle 1h1 hour ago
Lamoriello on Harrington and Marincin: “They’ve impressed our coaching staff. They’ve deserved the opportunity they’re getting.”

Impresses Babcock, but not MacT.

I know who I’m going with here……

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 3:11 pm

G Money,

But bad results for pre-season for a bubble player are a bad sign. It is exceedingly rare for someone to do poorly against sub-NHL players and then do better against NHL players.

Meh, you need to account for non-NHL Dmen giving up lots of HDSC.

More importantly I was just busting your balls.

wheatnoil October 4, 2015 - 3:12 pm

Woodguy:
James Mirtle ‏@mirtle1h1 hour ago
Lamoriello on Harrington and Marincin: “They’ve impressed our coaching staff. They’ve deserved the opportunity they’re getting.”

Impresses Babcock, but not MacT.

I know who I’m going with here……

The guy with more Stanley Cups? 🙂

rickithebear October 4, 2015 - 3:12 pm

So we are worried about the goalie who had the best average over last 2 seasons at preventing goals from.
Even
high chance shots
Medium chance shots
PK
high chance shots
Medium chance shots.

We added
Fayne
Sekera
Gryba D with strong histories of reducing high chance shots at even and PK.

With
Klefbom
Reinhardt
Schultz
Nurse in the wings.

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 3:12 pm

kinger_OIL:
Woodguy,

– Bruce was right to call you out, and you moved the goalposts in response.The data in that analysis shows some goalies do get better as they get older.So you go from a blanket statement about goalies don’t age well to a goalie aging curve.Totally different.Of course on average goalies get worse as they age, but some do improve, untill of course they all get old and busted. Tim Thomas was a better goalie at 33 than 26, as was Hasek as examples.

Speaking of busting balls…….man.

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 3:14 pm

rickithebear: That is PC’s choice.

Don’t forget the LTIR relief they are getting daily with Eberle.

They were over by about $250K before Eberle went down, but now its clear sailing with all of the bonus babies on the roster.

Lowetide October 4, 2015 - 3:14 pm

coming up at 5, look for my post “Why on earth would the Oilers keep McDavid and burn an entry-level season?”

One-Timer October 4, 2015 - 3:17 pm

Has Hunter been on this thread?

I’ll go with 84 points. First Stanley year. Not that 84 makes the playoffs this time round!

rickithebear October 4, 2015 - 3:18 pm

5 years ago I ran a basic performance curve comparison between
NFL running backs
and
NHL goalies
The age performance curves were similiar.
the outliers saw less volume in PRE NHL and Start to career.
It extends the curves 1-3 years. which then see a slight compression of the curve.

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 3:18 pm

kinger_OIL:
Woodguy,

– Bruce was right to call you out, and you moved the goalposts in response.The data in that analysis shows some goalies do get better as they get older.So you go from a blanket statement about how goalies don’t get better as they age to a goalie aging curve.Totally different.Of course on average goalies get worse as they age, but some do improve, untill of course they all get old and busted. Tim Thomas was a better goalie at 33 than 26, as was Hasek as examples.

My Great-Uncle smoked until he was 91 and didn’t even get a cough.

Smoking is harmless.

Hasek says so.

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 3:18 pm

Lowetide:
coming up at 5, look for my post “Why on earth would the Oilers keep McDavid and burn an entry-level season?”

If that’s your post something is going to burn alright……

skidplate October 4, 2015 - 3:19 pm

Cannot wait for the sound reasoning. Hope there are spreadsheets and graphs.

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 3:19 pm

wheatnoil: The guy with more Stanley Cups?

Well, as a coach and GM MacT is Cupless so yes.

stephen sheps October 4, 2015 - 3:19 pm

Bar_Qu: When dealing with 11-15 yr olds, you cannot take anything for granted. Like commonly accepted definitions of words.

agreed, though age is somewhat irrelevant, as I have found with my American College students this year. (*sigh)

G Money October 4, 2015 - 3:20 pm

A Standings Model

I haven’t decided if I’ll publish this – most people don’t seem to understand what it means when you create a mathematical model, and treat the output as if the author is putting it forward as some sort of gospel truth. I generated this just out of curiousity, and also as a feeder to my article (which I will publish) about the RE for the Oiler record during the first 20 games of the season.

The idea behind this model is I took the regular season SCF% for every team, and also the PKSA/60 and PPSF/60 over three years, and weighted them to generate a standing. ES goals are about 78% of goals, so the three facets of the game are weighted approximately 80-10-10. Then I further weighted (increased or reduced) the result by up to 40%, depending on off-season changes (10% each) for goalering, coaching changes, forward roster changes, and defensive roster changes.

Here are the (rather surprising to me, esp CBJ and NSH, results):

NSH 1
STL 2
ANA 3
DET 4
NYI 5
T.B 6
MIN 7
CHI 8
DAL 9
L.A 10
WSH 10
NYR 12
PIT 13
WPG 14
BOS 15
OTT 16
MTL 17
PHI 18
VAN 18
S.J 20
FLA 21
CAR 22
EDM 22
CGY 24
CBJ 25
N.J 26
TOR 27
COL 28
BUF 29
ARI 30

David October 4, 2015 - 3:21 pm

G Money:
Bag of Pucks,

Well you know, those points are certainly legit.

And I would weight them a whole lot more heavily … if Talbot had gone through and ripped up the preseason.

You know that I’ve gone through and examined the goalie data extensively.And I’ve posted it all, and I ruminated on exactly this situation back in June and how best to hedge the risks, before we’d even signed Talbot.

I think the Talbot signing is a smart bet, and have said (and published) so, and I still think so.But the risk I’ve postulated since well before the signing is that ‘starters dip’.It is a thing.A real and scary thing.

And the preseason has *not* comforted me in that regard.

If that starters dip comes through, and we lose Scrivens on waivers because some other GM says “Hey!Remember Dubnyk?”, then we are betting our season on a guy with 23 poor NHL and 2 excellent pre-season games in his career.

I get why others don’t evaluate the risk the same way – if you haven’t crunched the data, you don’t believe that Talbot’s at risk or that Scrivens can rebound.

But I have, and I believe there’s a high probability of both (or rather, a distinct risk of the former and a high possibility of the latter).

Stock portfolio or not, I cannot reconcile this situation into calling it a smart bet.

Just want to say that if my tone seems aggressive and attacking I’m not. I’m just genuinely confused.

I thought that you didn’t put any stock in preseason play so Talbot’s rocky stats (which aren’t as bad as they seem because many of those goals against we’re not his fault at all) shouldn’t concern you. But maybe you’ve changed your mind since here you say that if he had played well that would comfort you. Yet you are taking no comfort from Nilssons strong play.

I’m also confused why you are so scared by this situation, which as others have pointed out requires everyone to suck, since you say that Talbot is a strong bet. If you believe in the bet why all the worry about something you don’t really think will happen?

Scrivens wouldn’t play as bad as he did last season, but expecting him to rebound to better than what Talbot/Nilsson will give us is a stretch. Each Goalie is their own story that’s why you scout them and predict what they will do based on them. Expecting a Dubnyk rebound is crazy because Dubnyk’s rebound was an outlier and as was pointed out 4teams after the oilers. Scrivens could rebound but it could be two years from now or it might never happen.

I’m really struggling to see an issue here other than what if the sky falls?

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 3:23 pm

Bruins sign Gustavsson.

Another one bites the dust:

Boston, MA – Boston Bruins General Manager Don Sweeney announced today, October 4 that the club has signed goaltender Jonas Gustavsson to a one-year, one-way contract through the 2015-16 season worth a cap figure of $700,000.

Gustavsson played for the Detroit Red Wings from 2012 to 2015 appearing in 41 games, compiling a 21-10-6 record. Prior to Detroit, Gustavsson played for three seasons in the Maple Leafs organization from 2009 to 2012. In total, the 30-year-old goaltender has appeared in 148 NHL games, racking up a 60-55-21 record with a 2.89 goals against average and .901 save percentage.

On the international stage, Gustavsson represented Sweden in the 2014 Olympics where he took home a silver medal. Gustavsson also played for Sweden in 2009 and 2010 at the World Championships where he took home bronze.

The 6’4’’, 212-pound native of Danderyd, Sweden was signed by the Toronto Maple Leafs as a free agent on July 7, 2009 before being signed by the Detroit Red Wings in 2012. Gustavsson then joined the 2015 Boston Bruins Training Camp on a PTO.

Source: http://bruins.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=781592

wheatnoil October 4, 2015 - 3:24 pm

Woodguy: Don’t forget the LTIR relief they are getting daily with Eberle.

They were over by about $250K before Eberle went down, but now its clear sailing with all of the bonus babies on the roster.

I was confused by you bringing this up on Twitter.

Is Eberle on the LTIR? I thought that was a ‘whole season’ thing. As in, they couldn’t LTIR him unless he was gone for the year.

Am I misunderstanding how that works?

TheOtherJohn October 4, 2015 - 3:25 pm

Does the person that posts the most comments on any one blog entry win the argument? If so, GMoney has very clearly won today’s topic. Although if LT blog entry at 5 pm is let’s send CMD back to Erie, the day is not over yet

Bag of Pucks October 4, 2015 - 3:26 pm

Lowetide:
Goaler was a word that was used often when I was a kid, in HOCKEY WORLD and HOCKEY PICTORIAL and magazines like that. We lived 17 miles out of Maidstone out at the (I think it was called) McLaren School. My Dad wired the school with modern wiring and we lived there for three years or so.

Anyway, down at the end of the road, where the main road intersected ours, was Allan Store. They used to have all those hockey magazines out for ages, eventually cutting top half of the front cover off and then selling it for half price (don’t ask, it was the 1970s).

I used to take pop bottles in and trade for the HALF OFF ones they absolutely couldn’t sell to the cheapest people who would come in. I’d get them 10 at a time, probably for a dime.

Those magazines, the ones I got from the Allan Store, they talked about goalers all the time.

Geez LT, and I thought I grew up poor. Why do I think that story ended with you eating a jam sandwich? You know, the kind where you jam two pieces of bread together and wish you had something to put between them?

A shoebox in the middle of the road? Luxury!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe1a1wHxTyo&sns=em

G Money October 4, 2015 - 3:26 pm

Woodguy: More importantly I was just busting your balls.

IT’S A CONSPIRACY.

kinger_OIL October 4, 2015 - 3:27 pm

Woodguy,

– Smoking is bad for you

– Aging is bad for athletic performance

– Not all smokers die from smoking

– Not all goalies get worse as they age

– Bruce called you out, you changed the goal posts on him in response

RexLibris October 4, 2015 - 3:30 pm

Woodguy: More importantly I was just busting your balls.

That seems out of character.

RexLibris October 4, 2015 - 3:31 pm

G Money: IT’S A CONSPIRACY.

SSSHHHH, quieten down everyone!

*looks around nervously and whispers*

He’s on to us.

RexLibris October 4, 2015 - 3:32 pm

Woodguy: Bruins sign Gustavsson.

That looks like one Monster of a signing.

JDï™ October 4, 2015 - 3:33 pm

wheatnoil: Am I misunderstanding how that works?

I think their definition of ‘long term’ is a few weeks, and most likely less than Ebs planned 4 – 6.

Just looked up one answer, and it said 10 games or 24 calendar days for LTIR. Sounds about right.

sliderule October 4, 2015 - 3:34 pm

Come on you guys.Relax

Goalies are voodoo and analyzing a failed backup is as useful as picking lint out of your navel.

wheatnoil October 4, 2015 - 3:35 pm

wheatnoil,

Woodguy,

Nevermind. I looked it up.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/7/10/5887059/doing-claudes-job-for-him

Okay, so they can put Eberle on the LTIR, which allows them some room on the cap. Though they can’t bank that space for later, which means I don’t believe they can use that LTIR space to make room for the bonus money, since the LTIR exemption disappears as soon as Eberle returns and any extra cap room is not banked.

wheatnoil October 4, 2015 - 3:35 pm

Woodguy,

Well that takes care of the Boston problem!

G Money October 4, 2015 - 3:36 pm

David,

Sorry David, but I think if you read through this massive thread, you’ll find all of my explanation and reasoning for your questions. I appreciate OtherJohn awarding me the thread win today on the basis of sheer volume, but per my earlier comment, not going to address those points again today.

Perhaps a better starting point is the four articles on the topic (one authored by WheatNOil, one co-authored with him), where you will find the complete explanation and analysis, complete with data.

I do not know (if I do say so myself) of a more thorough analysis of this particular aspect of goaltending (early career arc and development) that has been written anywhere.

You can find them here, here, here, and here.

RexLibris October 4, 2015 - 3:37 pm

sliderule:
Come on you guys.Relax

Goalies are voodoo and analyzinga failed backup is as useful as picking lint out of your navel.

But OH so satisfying at the end of a long day, amIwrite?!

David October 4, 2015 - 3:38 pm

G Money: Again – I’ve said this pretty consistently.

Pre-season pits you against sub-NHL rosters, with the few NHL regulars playing usually playing at half speed.The effort and the results really matter only for bubble players.

So good results in pre-season mean little.Most of the time, bubble players who rock the world in pre-season disappear once the bullets start flying for real.

But bad results for pre-season for a bubble player are a bad sign.It is exceedingly rare for someone to do poorly against sub-NHL players and then do better against NHL players.

So if your bubble goalie lights it up in pre-season, it means *nothing* until he faces an actual NHL roster of players trying to actually win.

But if your goalie – unless he’s Henrik Lundqvist or Carey Price and has zero chance of being on the bubble – shits the bed in pre-season, that is not a promising sign for the regular season.It gets vastly harder from here, not easier.

A bubble player can (and should) play himself off the team with a bad performance in preseason, but a stellar performance at best earns you a shot at the real thing.

I think strong play is a positive and weak play is a negative. If a young player lights up preseason but you send him down to the AHL to earn a call up down there because preseason… Was against AHL rosters… Then all you are really saying is you want a larger sample size. But if you really believe in large sample sizes then why penalize players for a small size of struggling?

And how can you accurately say the player that disappointed is bad because according to you players aren’t trying so his struggles don’t matter cause he wasn’t trying.

Of course I don’t buy for a second that the players aren’t trying. Watching Hall and Nuge and Yak play, they are giving it. Coupled with every player ever saying that they still really want to win in preseason plus all up and coming players playing their guts out to make the team and all bubble players desperately not wanting to be sent down and I would say preseason is good competition.

RexLibris October 4, 2015 - 3:41 pm

wheatnoil:
Woodguy,

Well that takes care of the Boston problem!

Not really.

Sweeney and Neely are still dinks.

You know, I’m kind of wondering what that game in Boston is going to look like now.

Monday, Dec 14th on SNW. For Pete’s sake (finally a time when that phrase applies perfectly) I the Oilers run them out of the building 11-0.

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 3:42 pm

wheatnoil: I was confused by you bringing this up on Twitter.

Is Eberle on the LTIR? I thought that was a ‘whole season’ thing. As in, they couldn’t LTIR him unless he was gone for the year.

Am I misunderstanding how that works?

LTIR minimum is 24 days or 10 game iirc.

Team gets to exceed the cap by the amount of the player’s salary while he is on LTIR.

böök¡je October 4, 2015 - 3:43 pm

Woodguy:
G Money,

I also think Brossoit would be fine in a pinch.

I’m of the opinion that goalies don’t get better with age.

All of you trying to argue this with WG are going about it the wrong way using examples of Tim Thomas, etc.

EVERY goalie in the NHL today is a substantially better goalie today than when they were 9 years old.

EVERY single one.

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 3:45 pm

wheatnoil:
wheatnoil,

Woodguy,

Nevermind. I looked it up.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/2014/7/10/5887059/doing-claudes-job-for-him

Okay, so they can put Eberle on the LTIR, which allows them some room on the cap. Though they can’t bank that space for later, which means I don’t believe they can use that LTIR space to make room for the bonus money, since the LTIR exemption disappears as soon as Eberle returns and any extra cap room is not banked.

No its not banked, but every day Eberle is on LTIR they can remove the little bit that future bonuses may put them over because on those days they were not over.

RexLibris October 4, 2015 - 3:45 pm

Woodguy: LTIR minimum is 24 days or 10 game iirc.

Team gets to exceed the cap by the amount of the player’s salary while he is on LTIR.

As I understand it, Eberle is on the books for 1 minute of regular season and then on LTIR for a determined time during which his cap hit goes away, pro-rated for the year.

So, the Oilers could keep someone like Draisaitl, a player we’ve spoken of as having some potential cap implications further down the road should he hit some of his bonuses, until Eberle returns. At which time they can send that player down to the minors.

David October 4, 2015 - 3:45 pm

G Money:
David,

Sorry David, but I think if you read through this massive thread, you’ll find all of my explanation and reasoning for your questions.I appreciate OtherJohn awarding me the thread win today on the basis of sheer volume, but per my earlier comment, not going to address those points again today.

Perhaps a better starting point is the four articles on the topic (one authored by WheatNOil, one co-authored with him), where you will find the complete explanation and analysis, complete with data.

I do not know (if I do say so myself) of a more thorough analysis of this particular aspect of goaltending (early career arc and development) that has been written anywhere.

You can find them here, here, here, and here.

I guess we’ll have to leave it for now. I’ll read through the articles when I have some time, and I respect the amount of time you have taken to study this. My complaint all along has been unable to see consistency in your arguments of when preseason play matters and when it doesn’t.

G Money October 4, 2015 - 3:48 pm

David,

Incorrect. Lots of NHL regulars will tell you they use the preseason as a tuneup, that they are pretend games and low intensity. Exactly the reverse effect as seen in the playoffs.

The correlation between team preseason and regular season results (point%) is indistinguishable from zero (r = 0.11, p =0.59).

https://oilersnerdalert.wordpress.com/2015/10/01/how-meaningless-is-the-pre-season/

I guess we’ll have to leave it for now. I’ll read through the articles when I have some time, and I respect the amount of time you have taken to study this. My complaint all along has been unable to see consistency in your arguments of when preseason play matters and when it doesn’t.

And that’s fine. If it seems inconsistent, I guess that’s how you’re reading. I think I’ve been pretty clear. Preseason means nothing for results, so I don’t get up or down. Bubble players can play themselves off with a bad series (and, yes, that often means they’ll have to prove they deserve to come back, in a different venue like the AHL or CHL), or they can give themselves a chance to make the team with a good performance. Just a chance – you can’t make the team until you can prove it against real NHL rosters in meaningful games, which many cannot. And for sure, you can read nothing about veteran players from the preseason. I haven’t changed this view in 20+ years.

Магия 10 October 4, 2015 - 3:49 pm

Lowetide: They used to have all those hockey magazines out for ages, eventually cutting top half of the front cover off and then selling it for half price (don’t ask, it was the 1970s).

That’s a 150% ROI.

http://www.magazinescanada.ca/distribution_return_policy

Anyone remember the warnings inside paperbacks about no covers?

RexLibris October 4, 2015 - 3:49 pm

böök¡je: All of you trying to argue this with WG are going about it the wrong way using examples of Tim Thomas, etc.

EVERY goalie in the NHL today is a substantially better goalie today than when they were 9 years old.

EVERY single one.

Well, to be fair, remember that one season Steve Mason had?

I’m not sure 9-year old Steve Mason wasn’t at least a little bit better.

rickithebear October 4, 2015 - 3:49 pm

NHL running backs yards from scrimage: age 29; 30; 31.
Tiki barber is a freak to walkaway at that time.
Best seasons all time.
#3 Barber (30) 2390yd
#5 Sanders (29) 2358
#38 Barber (31) 2127
#41 P. Holmes (29) 2110
#44 Barber (29) 2096
#49 Payton (30) 2052
#57 Payton (31) 2034
#60 Payton (29) 2028
#75 C. martin (31) 1942
#88 C. garner (30) 1903
#95 J. brown (29) 1872
#102 R. watters (31) 1855
#122 Sanders (30) 1784
#144 O.J. (29) 1762
#149 Dorsett (31) 1756
#215 Dorsett (30) 1648

RexLibris October 4, 2015 - 3:50 pm

Flames release Ryan Wilson in favour of Kulak.

Interesting. I’ve never been all the impressed with Kulak, but he’s been better than Wotherspoon.

RexLibris October 4, 2015 - 3:53 pm

Магия 10: That’s a 150% ROI.

http://www.magazinescanada.ca/distribution_return_policy

Any one remember the warnings inside paperbacks about no covers?

The real trick is to sell the paperbacks for 10 cents, but the last chapter for $5.00.

John Chambers October 4, 2015 - 3:56 pm

If Nilsson has actually won the backup job and performs admirably, I can see Scrivens being a helpful mentor to young Brossoit.

I really don’t foresee a situation where Scribbles gets claimed here. And as mentioned he’s not the worst option to recall in the event of injury.

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 4:02 pm

kinger_OIL,

– Bruce called you out, you changed the goal posts on him in response

No, here’s what happened:

1) I post that IN MY OPINION (I’m allowed to have one right???) goalies don’t get better with age

2) Bruce admonishes me to not make blanket statements about goalies

3) I admonish Bruce about he and LT using the term “goaler” as too hipster

4) Various posters start naming old outlier goalies like Hasek and Thomas. I don’t get this because most posters here know that I’ve studied goalies lately. Pretty sure I know about good old goalies, but whatever its all for fun.

5) LT chimes in with Bruce

6) I show one of the articles that helped form my opinion on goalies not getting better with age.

7) Kinger sees an opening to bust my balls and does so as he is wont to do, but he’s allowed his opinion like everyone else.

That’s it.

Goal posts are pretty firm.

I still think that goalies don’t get better with age.

Adam Wu October 4, 2015 - 4:09 pm

The *results of games, re W/L,* in preseason are meaningless.

How individual players play in those games is not meaningless, though the specific meaning differs based on the players situation vis-a-vis how established they are (or think they are).

Woodguy October 4, 2015 - 4:10 pm

kinger_OIL,

8) I go back in time and removes every trace of me having Nurse-Nikitin as the Oilers top pairing off the internet to confound kinger_OIL.

kinger_OIL October 4, 2015 - 4:12 pm

Woodguy,

– You said goalies don’t get better with age. Some goalies do get better with age. All goalies get old busted. And yes, I’m busting your balls

– Anyway awesome link today: so much stuff going on: I’m worried about Klef as he’s been hurt before, and Eberle: who knows. Two big holes, and Davidson on D and Sheppy/Drai are huge downgrades.

hoser313 October 4, 2015 - 4:16 pm

The Scrivens move seems to me like an extended try-out for Nilsson. I guess I’m ok with that given the poor ability of the pre-season competition to truely test the goaltending.

The Nikitin waiver is interesting. What I see now when I look at the Oilers D is a LOT less chaos.

Reinhart, Gryba, Davidson. All big, physical, ‘make the simple play’ type players.

Quite a contrast in playing styles versus Larsson, Hunt, Grebeshkov, Nikitin, and for the time being, Nurse.

John Chambers October 4, 2015 - 4:19 pm

Adam Wu:
The *results of games, re W/L,* in preseason are meaningless.

How individual players play in those games is not meaningless, though the specific meaning differs based on the players situation vis-a-vis how established they are (or think they are).

A lot of very talented players don’t rack up a lot of points in September. A lot of bubble players put up the best stats of their professional lives.

Glad we’re bringing on the real deal, and it appears as if McLellan has filtered his roster down to the one which gives him his best chance to win.

leadfarmer October 4, 2015 - 4:19 pm

rickithebear,

Quite impossible for all of all of them to reach the B level bonuses at least outside of Macdavid.

John Chambers October 4, 2015 - 4:22 pm

Habs’ Kassian involved in traffic accident
http://www.tsn.ca/habs-kassian-involved-in-traffic-accident-1.371412

I don’t wish anybody any harm, but fact remains Karma can be a cruel birch

flyfish1168 October 4, 2015 - 4:28 pm

Does anyone give Laurent Brossoit a chance to be maybe the backup 3rd goalie. He is a 4th year pro and didn’t look that bad last year. Not bad numbers.

GCW_69 October 4, 2015 - 4:36 pm

Lowetide:
coming up at 5, look for my post “Why on earth would the Oilers keep McDavid and burn an entry-level season?”

I don’t know, but with this defence, that is exactly what they are doing. If this team breaks 80 points, I will be pleasantly surprised. If it breaks 85 points I will be shocked. But my guess is that unless Chia is active during the season, this is a ~75-77 point roster, which is still 13-15 points better than last year, and back around where Ralph had the team, but still a tire fire on a lot of nights.

Caramel Obvious October 4, 2015 - 4:55 pm

I tend to agree with Gmoney on the goalies, though I also think it doesn’t matter very much.

Marincin, on the other hand, was and is a terrible trade. The Oilers need him right now.

I do think it precious that people are so filled with MacT hate that they are willing to blame him for that deal while absolving Chiarelli. That’s the definition of talking out of both sides of your mouth.

It’s highly prejudicial to assume that all the bad moves Chiarelli makes are because of the guys whispering in his ear while all the good moves is because he ignored them.

oliveoilers October 4, 2015 - 4:56 pm

G Money: Incorrect. Lots of NHL regulars will tell you they use the preseason as a tuneup, that they are pretend games and low intensity. Exactly the reverse effect as seen in the playoffs.

Is this why TMac bag skated the team Friday doing compete drills? Because losing 5-2 to the ‘Nucks was just pretend? Did TMac Low Intensity Tune Up them until they puked?

I fear there is a disparity between how you view pre-season and how the majority of others see it. Maybe this is how you would do it if you were GM or coach and it does make sense. But one of the best things Chia did was to create competition for places. Where do you think it’s best for this competition to take place? The pre-season or after Christmas when you could possibly be needing every point to get in the play-offs.

Unwashed Oilfan October 4, 2015 - 5:00 pm

It’s 5 o’clock somewhere. Not here, but somewhere!!

böök¡je October 4, 2015 - 5:04 pm

oliveoilers: Is this why TMac bag skated the team Friday doing compete drills?Because losing 5-2 to the ‘Nucks was just pretend?Did TMac Low Intensity Tune Up them until they puked?

I fear there is a disparity between how you view pre-season and how the majority of others see it.Maybe this is how you would do it if you were GM or coach and it does make sense.But one of the best things Chia did was to create competition for places.Where do you think it’s best for this competition to take place?The pre-season or after Christmas when you could possibly be needing every point to get in the play-offs.

Those who are locked into a starting position tend to not play that well in preseason

stephen sheps October 4, 2015 - 5:06 pm

new thread, friends (and it’s not what LT threatened)

Drew October 4, 2015 - 5:11 pm

G Money:
NYCOIL “Gentleman Backpacker”,

Til now, the main move I disagreed with was the sending away of Marincin for nothing.Stunk of MacT.

I loved the Talbot deal, still do.Have not changed my messaging on the distinct short term risk.It is why I do not like this Scrivens waive, it tacks a large amount of unnecessary risk to the Oilers goalering situation.

I was on the fence regarding Gryba and Reinhart – I might not have made those moves, but I (think) I understand why Chia made them.I also understand why Chia kept Nikitin, but I also like the decisiveness of the Nikitin waive.

As I said during the summer, if Chia could have moved Ference, I would have built him a shrine.

Bottom line then – I guess I’m sliding closer to your point of view.Chia certainly fell a notch or two in my eyes with this latest move, just because it injects so much unnecessary risk.

But I’d still say he’s sitting quite far to the competent side of the spectrum to my eyes.

Hope you’re enjoying your Europe trip, ya lucky b*stard!!

I wish they would have moved Ferrance, they wold have had more flexibility to deal with goalie issues today. So much of what happens, situationally can be traced back to a number of previous decision where folks say “it is no big deal” at the time.

oliveoilers October 4, 2015 - 5:22 pm

böök¡je: Those who are locked into a starting position tend to not play that well in preseason

Once again, I can only go from the actual evidence that TMac cited. He was NOT impressed with their low intensity tune up.

I did post on this the other day saying that it’s in the eye of the beholder. To me, it seems as some players go balls out and others are ‘meh’. And it doesn’t seem to jive with ability. I’ve never seen Crosby phone it in, no matter what the game is. Guys like the Sedins, well they are solid locks. But they tend not to play until the final game or two of pre-season. I think that some bubble players who view themselves as locks might not have management agreeing with them. Ask Scrivens and Nikitin.

AsiaOil October 4, 2015 - 6:50 pm

Everyone please trying to compare Dubnyk and Scrivens – completely different other than playing for EDM Oilers. Dubnyk’s rebound is not the outlier – his year from hell is – and that was largely created by the EDM Oilers mgmt. Dubnyk stood in front of shooting gallery for 3 seasons prior to that bad year and thrived against all odds. You need a heap of confidence to that and his experience in Kamloops playing for bad teams helped. But when you own team throws you to the dogs pre-season saying they have no confidence in you and trying to trade for a guy you’ve been competing against for years – well that threw the whole mess over the edge. As for the “other teams” saw him bad – that’s bunk as well. Montreal and Nashville have elite goalies and great coaching – they both know that Dubnyk is good and wanted to see if they could exploit MacTs mistake for a short term gain. But Dubnyk’s confidence was shattered by the time he got there and he was going to need a summer to get his head together – so no short-term gain possible becuase he was UFA in the summer.

The day he was drafted I said Dubnyk’s comparable was Sean Burke – and all he needed to do was spend some time with quality coaching. No he’s not the best goalie in the NHL (which he was in the 2nd half of the year – yes even better than Price) but he’s going to be a solid top 10 guy for the next 3-4 years.

As for Scrivens – backup goalie who cracked under unreasonable expectations and pressures. No shame as not many others could have survived that madhouse.

David: Just want to say that if my tone seems aggressive and attacking I’m not. I’m just genuinely confused.

Scrivens wouldn’t play as bad as he did last season, but expecting him to rebound to better than what Talbot/Nilsson will give us is a stretch. Each Goalie is their own story that’s why you scout them and predict what they will do based on them. Expecting a Dubnyk rebound is crazy because Dubnyk’s rebound was an outlier and as was pointed out 4teams after the oilers. Scrivens could rebound but it could be two years from now or it might never happen.

Oilanderp October 5, 2015 - 12:49 am

We’ll see Scrivens again in the bigs.

Ice Sage March 26, 2016 - 11:06 pm

Best game of the year.
Fuck the Kings- we gonna show no mercy next year… And the decade after
“. ” “. “

1 2

Comments are closed.